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Speaker 1: they're happy Monday. It is a federal holiday, President's Day,

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Speaker 1: since we've separated out when I was a hit the

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Speaker 1: very first year or two of school, I feel like

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Speaker 1: we had every state decided were they going to get

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Speaker 1: out for Washington's birthday or for Lincoln's birthday? And then we,

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Speaker 1: of course we ended up with this President's Day. I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you what sort of what doesn't happen as much

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Speaker 1: with President's Day as I wish it did. And look

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Speaker 1: I've got I don't want you to think I'm just

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Speaker 1: going to go down this President's Day rabbit hole for

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Speaker 1: twenty minutes. I got like a two minute riff here

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Speaker 1: in President's Day, and then we're gonna get in to

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Speaker 1: what i have to say. It is a Monday. I've

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Speaker 1: got an interesting of how the Trump administration is accelerating

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Speaker 1: distrust in government and the irony being the reason Trump

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Speaker 1: got to the presidency twice was playing on the fears

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Speaker 1: of distrust of government. But I'm gonna get to that

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Speaker 1: in a bit. I also my interview today Jean Sperling,

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Speaker 1: who's been a long time sort of economic advisor to

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Speaker 1: president's Democratic presidents. He's worked, he's worked, I believe for

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Speaker 1: the he did not work in the Carter white House,

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Speaker 1: but he's worked in every other Democratic White House in

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Speaker 1: some form or another. And his sort of the reason

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Speaker 1: he always gets hired is because he's the economist that

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Speaker 1: seems to also understand how to read a poll and

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Speaker 1: understand how to apply economic policy to real world political messaging.

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Speaker 1: It's not the easiest thing, it is Oftentimes economists can

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Speaker 1: frustrate a president no matter there. And he's also was

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Speaker 1: an original one of the early consultants to West Wing.

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Speaker 1: So for the West Wing junkies, trust me, you're going

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Speaker 1: to want to listen to this interview. It's also a Monday,

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Speaker 1: which means I've got my time cast. We're going to

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Speaker 1: go into the Toddcast time cast, my Toddcast time machine,

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Speaker 1: and we're going to go all the way back to

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Speaker 1: the eighteen forties. That's the only hint I'm going to

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Speaker 1: give you. But we're going to go all the way

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Speaker 1: back to the eighteen forties, an important event that took

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Speaker 1: place that is still reverberating in our politics today around

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Speaker 1: the globe. So there's two hints that I just gave you.

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Speaker 1: Eighteen forties and politics around the globe. All right, no googling,

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Speaker 1: see if you can figure it out while you're listening

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Speaker 1: whatever you may be doing today. But we kick it off.

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Speaker 1: It is President's Day and it is one of those

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Speaker 1: things that I do wish there were. I don't want

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Speaker 1: the lame list where historians decide who are the greatest,

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Speaker 1: who are the worst, because a lot of times, you know,

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Speaker 1: many of these rankings of presidents are more reflective of

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Speaker 1: the time we're living in, and we apply our current

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Speaker 1: times to trying to figure out the success or failure

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Speaker 1: of a given president. So I do think we sometimes

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Speaker 1: just like just like in sports debates, you know, should

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Speaker 1: you really put Bill Russell and Lebron James in the

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Speaker 1: same category when you're trying to decide to do the

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Speaker 1: greatest ever? When they literally played two different types of games,

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Speaker 1: there was no three point shot. There was you know,

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Speaker 1: literally there were nobody dribbled, nobody switched hands, dribbled. What

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Speaker 1: is allowed what is called dribbling today would have been

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Speaker 1: called palming in the sixties. So it's I almost view

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Speaker 1: it similarly, right, It's look, the times that you live

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Speaker 1: in matter a lot, and sometimes it is hard for

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Speaker 1: us to understand what the cultural times were in that moment,

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Speaker 1: no matter how much we read that said, I thought

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Speaker 1: I would quickly go and talk about President's Day in

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Speaker 1: this respect, we now have our third straight one term president,

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Speaker 1: or you know, we're going to have a fourth one

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Speaker 1: term president. We'll see if the person elected in twenty

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Speaker 1: eight can get re elected in thirty two. And one

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Speaker 1: of the interesting aspects of one term presidencies is we

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Speaker 1: deem them all failures. Right, we look at a success

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Speaker 1: or failure of a president based on whether they get reelected.

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Speaker 1: So essentially what we're saying is, and I think this

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Speaker 1: is a mistake, and I'll get to it in a minute,

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Speaker 1: but what we're saying is if you if you're not

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Speaker 1: a good politician, then you probably want a good president.

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Speaker 1: I will, I will certainly say if you're a one

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Speaker 1: term president, it means you weren't a good politics, but

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Speaker 1: it doesn't always mean you weren't qualified for the job,

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Speaker 1: and if anything, you might have been really good at

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Speaker 1: the job. So in that spirit, and in fact, if

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Speaker 1: you're Joe Biden or Donald Trump, the way we judge presidencies,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty clear neither one of them is ever going

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Speaker 1: to be considered a successful president simply because neither one

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Speaker 1: of them won re election. You know, Trump won non

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Speaker 1: consecutive terms, but as we learned with the only other

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Speaker 1: president to win non consecutive terms is at best you

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Speaker 1: become an intriguing footnote in history. Hey check out Gover

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Speaker 1: Cleveland in one non consecutive terms. But it is not

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Speaker 1: as if his presidencies have left a legacy. Now it's

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying it isn't possible, but it is more

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Speaker 1: likely than not that being a one term president and

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Speaker 1: an inability to win direct reelection will always be seen

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Speaker 1: as an asterisk keeping you out of your top ten

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Speaker 1: or top fifteen. However you want to do that, because

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Speaker 1: part of a successful president in our democracy is doing

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Speaker 1: policies that you can alsold to the public in that

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Speaker 1: moment in time, not just hope historians one hundred years

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Speaker 1: later say hey, that was pretty good. But in that

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Speaker 1: spirit I thought I would talk about I would point

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Speaker 1: out five one term presidents who history has been kinder

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Speaker 1: to and will continue to be kinder too, because essentially

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Speaker 1: their big failing was an inability to meet the moment politically,

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Speaker 1: but their policies and some of the things that they

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Speaker 1: proposed actually live longer beyond them. So let's start with

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Speaker 1: perhaps the only one term president that chose to be

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Speaker 1: a one term president, James Polk. He was the ultimate

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Speaker 1: checklist president. He promised to serve one term. He set

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Speaker 1: four massive goals, securing the Oregon Trail, acquiring California, lowering tariffs,

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Speaker 1: establishing an independent treasury. He achieved all of them, expanded

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Speaker 1: the US to the Pacific, and then he simply went home.

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Speaker 1: We have never had anybody like him since who actually

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Speaker 1: said no, I want to be a one term president

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Speaker 1: because you got to get it in one term, and

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Speaker 1: this is what I'm going to do. So Polk is

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Speaker 1: still sort of, you know, always deserves either's some There's

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Speaker 1: a couple of good Polk biographies that have been written

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Speaker 1: in the last twenty five years. I highly highly recommend them.

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Speaker 1: Bob Mary, I believe, was one of them. I think

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Speaker 1: was the author of one of them that I truly

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Speaker 1: enjoyed on that one. But I would encourage you if

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Speaker 1: you've got to, if you're looking for a president that

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Speaker 1: you haven't learned enough about, try James Polk number two

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Speaker 1: on my list of underrated presidents on here in these

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Speaker 1: one termers. James Garfield, you've heard me lion eyes him before.

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Speaker 1: He's he's sort of he's he's the what if presidency,

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Speaker 1: right because in two hundred days of a presidency he

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Speaker 1: did begin the dismantling of what was then a corrupt

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Speaker 1: spoils system is what it was called. Ben But he's

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Speaker 1: the patronage system, right, trying to take the patronage out

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Speaker 1: of politics. Now. Donald Trump's trying to basically eradicate all

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Speaker 1: of those changes at Garfield and then later Chester Arthur

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Speaker 1: made it is terrible trust in government if we go

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Speaker 1: down this road. But the other part of Garfield, and

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Speaker 1: the reason it's such a what if presidency is he

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Speaker 1: was a fierce advocate for civil rights at the time

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Speaker 1: and was very much pro reconstruction. I wonder if he lives,

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Speaker 1: does Jim Crow get dismantled before really becomes embedded for

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Speaker 1: another forty years in society. Number three on the list

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Speaker 1: George H. W. Bush an extraordinarily busy and accomplished one

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Speaker 1: term presidency. He just wasn't a very good politician and

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Speaker 1: timing of the economic recovery was not good for him.

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Speaker 1: It started to recover sort of after voters had already

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Speaker 1: made their decision that he wasn't focused enough on the economy,

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Speaker 1: and he was also overshadowed by Reagan. He didn't have

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Speaker 1: the charisma of Ronald Reagan, but look helped. He was

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Speaker 1: the president when the Cold War came to an end.

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Speaker 1: He helped oversee renoifacation of Germany, and he chose stable

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Speaker 1: global diplomacy and long term fiscal health, which actually created

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Speaker 1: the first inklings of the Trump movement within his party.

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Speaker 1: But he arguably essentially held off that sort of return

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Speaker 1: to sort of pre World War Two conservatism that the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party has now returned to. His actions helped hold

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Speaker 1: that off for arguably another generation. John Quincy Adams, here's

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Speaker 1: a man born arguably one hundred years too early. He

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Speaker 1: proposed a national system of Rhodes canals and even a

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Speaker 1: national university an astronom astronomical observatories. Essentially, he was outlining

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Speaker 1: the beginnings of the space program, our incredible land grant

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Speaker 1: university system that later Lincoln would help solidify. At the

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Speaker 1: time that he proposed these things, he was mocked, but

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Speaker 1: he actually was laying out the blueprint for modern American infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: So in some ways he was just ahead of his time.

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Speaker 1: And you know, he could never shake being a scion.

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Speaker 1: That obviously didn't hurt. Then there's Jimmy Carter, who I

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Speaker 1: think is a presidency that won those of us who

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Speaker 1: lived up during the Carter presidency when we die off

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Speaker 1: because we saw just politically how erratic he was, and

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Speaker 1: he wasn't a good politician, but it didn't mean that

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Speaker 1: some of the things he accomplished weren't going to be

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Speaker 1: seen as as you know, whether it's deregulation of the airlines.

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Speaker 1: He did quite a few things that we are aging

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Speaker 1: fairly well, Camp David Accords. I mean, how important were

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Speaker 1: those uh to these days? And as you know, as

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Speaker 1: Israel solidifies itself more and more as an accepted country

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Speaker 1: and power and finally being accepted by more Muslim and

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Speaker 1: Arab nations, you know, it all began with Egypt, the

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Speaker 1: Panama Canal Treaty, which of course Trump's trying to undo,

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Speaker 1: and his focus on renewable energy, yes the country wasn't ready, yes,

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Speaker 1: not there, and using human rights as a pillar of

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Speaker 1: foreign policy, which I think will be something that will

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Speaker 1: be more of a given, especially when we move on

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Speaker 1: from the Trump era. I think the reactionary part of

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Speaker 1: the Trump era, the lack of moral and human rights

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Speaker 1: in our foreign policy, is actually going to make that,

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Speaker 1: I think, over time, make that more and more of

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Speaker 1: a centerpiece. So one hundred years from now, how will

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Speaker 1: Biden and Trump be viewed? Some of it is going

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Speaker 1: to depend on whether you know, neither put it this way,

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Speaker 1: Both will never be seen as consequential one hundred years

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Speaker 1: from now, right, either Trump's move towards nationalism and America first,

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Speaker 1: protectionism becomes you know, defines the globe for the next

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Speaker 1: hundred years, and he will be seen as And if

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Speaker 1: it does lead to a successful America leader of the world,

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Speaker 1: and we do actually advance and avoid major wars, then

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Speaker 1: sure he might be seen as visionary. I'm skeptical considering

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Speaker 1: the previous time that we were a very nationalistic globe

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Speaker 1: and how that led to multiple wars. But we'll see

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Speaker 1: on there. I think right now many historians currently put

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Speaker 1: Trump closer to the bottom. For As for Biden, you know,

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Speaker 1: he he I don't know if it'll ever be considered

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Speaker 1: a good presidency or an undergraded presidency, but a few

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Speaker 1: things that were accomplished during his presidency may age well,

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Speaker 1: whether it's the chipsack, the reindustrialization, the focus on renewable

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Speaker 1: energy as a you know, sort of an all of

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Speaker 1: the above policy, if that is where we go, right

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Speaker 1: But a lot of both Biden and Trump. So the

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Speaker 1: point is is that I don't think Biden and Trump

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Speaker 1: can be fairly evaluated for one hundred years, right because

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Speaker 1: we all will personalize it so much, just like what

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Speaker 1: happens with Jimmy Carter, and maybe to a lessard and

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Speaker 1: George H. W. Bush. But anyway, there's my little President's

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Speaker 1: Day rant on that the most important thing you should

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Speaker 1: take away from this is go read about James Bolk,

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Speaker 1: the only true one term president that we had because

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Speaker 1: he wanted to be and you know, he's certainly, he's

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Speaker 1: certainly he did what many people would wish more politicians

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Speaker 1: would do. Set a checklist, accomplish it, and walk away.

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Speaker 1: It is truly a sort of representative democracy. All right.

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Speaker 1: I want to move on to a larger, a larger

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Speaker 1: conversation today. I'm gonna start with a question that's bigger

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Speaker 1: than anyone headline. What does a real reckoning look like?

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Speaker 1: You know? I And just stay with me here a minute,

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Speaker 1: because I'm going to go into multiple stories from Epstein

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Speaker 1: to DHS to the Me Too movement to plane crashes

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Speaker 1: to al Paso. But again, just stick with me and

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Speaker 1: trust me on this one. But I want to start

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Speaker 1: with that question, what does a real reckoning look like?

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Speaker 1: Because it is interesting to me that in the first

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Speaker 1: Trump term we had a reckoning that was the Me

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Speaker 1: Too movement sort of in some ways, Harvey Weinstein is

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Speaker 1: sort of a face of that, right, and it certainly

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Speaker 1: helped or the Epstein reckoning that we're having here in

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Speaker 1: the moment now in the second Trump term, right. And

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's an accident that it's during the

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Speaker 1: Trump terms that we want to have this outsized reckoning

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Speaker 1: because the Epstein files have become their own kind of

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Speaker 1: moral and institutional stress test, just like the Me Too

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Speaker 1: movement did in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, and twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: But what's fascinating and where this where I'm going with

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Speaker 1: this today, is this the institution that seems the least

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Speaker 1: capable of dealing with Epstein and this Epstein moment is

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Speaker 1: the government itself. And that's not because the private sector

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Speaker 1: is pure. We know that, please, okay. It's because in

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Speaker 1: the private sector there's at least one brutal organizing principle consequences, right,

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Speaker 1: There's reputational consequences. We're seeing that with Casey Wasserman, who's

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Speaker 1: head of the LA Olympic committees, faced a potential vote

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Speaker 1: of no confidence on that. He survived that, but he's

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Speaker 1: now going to sell one of his firms to sort

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Speaker 1: of get out from this. And he did flirtatious emails

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Speaker 1: with Maxwell. It wasn't even an Epstein guy, but he

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Speaker 1: was a Maxwell flirter. But it's reputational. There's liability issues, right,

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Speaker 1: maybe why certain lawyers have been shown the door, certain

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Speaker 1: law firms have decided to part ways with managing partners.

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Speaker 1: There's certainly customer consequences. People say, I'm not dealing have

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Speaker 1: business anymore. Right, Casey Wasserman's selling his firm because clients

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Speaker 1: didn't want to be associated. You have shareholders who don't

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Speaker 1: like it, contracts access. So there's actually in the private

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Speaker 1: sector there's a mechanism that forces some action and forces

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Speaker 1: at least some consequence, right, that we're not seeing at

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Speaker 1: all with this government. In government, right, in this government,

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Speaker 1: especially the organizing principle increasingly feels like this deny, deflect,

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Speaker 1: litigate the critics, and dare people to move on. Right,

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Speaker 1: That's kind of what we heard with BAMBONDI. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about Dow fifty thousand, move on. Nothing to see here.

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Speaker 1: Do you think this is just about Epstein? It isn't.

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Speaker 1: Epstein is just the most morally radioactive example of a

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Speaker 1: broader pattern. Because trust is the currency of government, and

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Speaker 1: without it you cannot have a legitimate government. And this

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Speaker 1: administration spends its trust currency like it's monopoly money. Right.

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Speaker 1: And the irony of this is Donald Trump became president

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Speaker 1: by playing on the on distrust of government. And what

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Speaker 1: has he done. He has made government less trustful. He

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Speaker 1: is making us less healthy because of the nonsense of DJHS.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna get toss moral less, morally and ethically accountable

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Speaker 1: because do as I say, not as I do. And

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Speaker 1: perhaps it's making it's creating an economic revolution if we're

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Speaker 1: not careful. And I'm going to get to that in

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Speaker 1: a minute. So let's start with the idea that government

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Speaker 1: can't carry the moral it's moral weight. Last week's hearings

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Speaker 1: right with the Attorney General of PANBONDI didn't reassure anyone.

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Speaker 1: It did just thepposite, or reinforce the feeling that the

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Speaker 1: Epstein story inside government has become. It's not a story

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Speaker 1: of justice. It's not even a story about the victims.

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Speaker 1: It's simply a narrative management story. That is all the

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Speaker 1: Justice Department is trying to do is manage this narrative,

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Speaker 1: land the plane so that Trump is touched as little

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Speaker 1: as possible politically. That's all this is about. And if

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Speaker 1: you watched any of Bondi's hearings. You saw the move

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Speaker 1: questions about reactions, questions about victims, and questions about process,

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Speaker 1: and the response was simply combat right. They did an

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Speaker 1: invasion of privacy type thing of sort of finding out

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Speaker 1: what parts of the Epstein files lawmakers were searching, which

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Speaker 1: I found to be just atrocious. You have deflection. It

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Speaker 1: turned into partisan trench warfare. And that matters because Epstein

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Speaker 1: is one of those stories where process is the morality.

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Speaker 1: It's not just what you know, it's how you handle

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Speaker 1: what you know. Did you want to do the right

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Speaker 1: thing when you knew this guy was morally praved and

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Speaker 1: ethically questionable, or did you look the other way because

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Speaker 1: you got a free plane ride or because he was rich? Right,

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Speaker 1: And it's whether you can prove your pursuing truth and

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Speaker 1: justice rather than protecting reputations or settling scores. But that

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Speaker 1: is not what this Justice Department is doing. Instead, the

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Speaker 1: hearing left the public with the same sinking feeling we've

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Speaker 1: had for years that when a story touches powerful people,

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Speaker 1: the system stops feeling like a system. It starts feeling

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Speaker 1: like a club with velvet ropes and protect and it

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Speaker 1: thirty percent off. Look, I'm not going to do the

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Speaker 1: name game for now. You have other people that do that,

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Speaker 1: because that's exactly how the truth gets buried in a

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Speaker 1: fog of mentions, insinuations, and what's turned into sort of

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Speaker 1: sorting by tribes like what about ism. So when one

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Speaker 1: side says this with Epstein. The other side says that

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Speaker 1: with Epstein, But I want to say this, if your

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Speaker 1: goal is public confidence, you don't get it by acting

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Speaker 1: like the public is the enemy. And this is where

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Speaker 1: the private sector comparison gets uncomfortable for government, because in

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Speaker 1: the private sector, when there's a credible scandal with documentation,

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Speaker 1: people can lose those contracts, get fired, get sued, get blacklisted,

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Speaker 1: get forced out of the room. In government, the Epstein

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Speaker 1: response increasingly looks like nothing to see here. You're a

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Speaker 1: partisan for asking trust us. And also we're not going

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Speaker 1: to answer basic questions about what we did and why right,

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Speaker 1: And it's your taxpayers in some ways we have these

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Speaker 1: people should be more accountable to us, not less. How

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Speaker 1: is it that Casey Wasserman's agency is more accountable about

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Speaker 1: Epstein than the fricking federal government. Epstein is a task

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Speaker 1: of whether the public still believes the government can tell

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Speaker 1: the truth about the powerful people in this country, And

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Speaker 1: so far Pambondi and the Department of Justice is failing badly.

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Speaker 1: F And this is a quick, quick decide, how do

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Speaker 1: you want to emphasize it the F F plus or

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Speaker 1: F minus. To me, if I go F plus, it

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Speaker 1: implies are really close to being a D minus, So

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go F minus minus minus minus center. But

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Speaker 1: that's the thing here. This isn't just about Epstein anymore. Right.

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Speaker 1: If you can't tell the truth about any powerful person,

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Speaker 1: and Epstein should be the easiest person to tell the

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Speaker 1: truth about, turning to be the hardest one, Well what

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Speaker 1: else are you not telling the truth about? Right? None

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Speaker 1: of this just stays in an Epstein box. It infects

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Speaker 1: everything else. So let's widen the lens. President's Day. The

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Speaker 1: airports are full, families are traveling, and we're back in

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Speaker 1: this uniquely American only ritual where government workers told are

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Speaker 1: told they're essential our tsa agents. So they're going to

428
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 1: have to show up the work with no promise that

429
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: they're going to get paid on time. They'll get paid eventually,

430
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: but not on time. Ask your landlord if you can say, hey,

431
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to get paid eventually, so you'll get your

432
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 1: rent eventually. It doesn't always work that way. But they're

433
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 1: not going to get paid because politicians are once again

434
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 1: using their paychecks as leverage. The fact that this is

435
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 1: at all legal, I've gone through a rant about this.

436
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: We should not we are You're supposed to be leader

437
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: of the free world, the number one place to do

438
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 1: business in the world, and we behave like this with

439
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: our government shutdowns. It's absolutely absurd. It's not a functioning system.

440
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 1: It continues to be government by hostage situation. I understand

441
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 1: this is what either party has is leverage. You take

442
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 1: whatever leverage you can get. But the fact that we're

443
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: using people's lives as leverage, livelihoods who are in charge

444
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: of people's lives i e. TSA agents, is kind of ridiculous.

445
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 1: And what do we do. We're hitting the wrong people first, right,

446
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 1: we're punishing TSA agents and travelers for the init for

447
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 1: essentially a poorly run Department of Homeland Security, politically scared

448
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 1: Republicans who know real reforms are necessary, and a White

449
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 1: House that doesn't want to give an inch because of

450
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 1: the politics of this thing. So sadly, we built the

451
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: system where the only way Washington can create urgency is

452
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: by inconveniencing the public. And look, this is how this

453
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: partial shutdown will land. We know we got about two

454
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 1: weeks because they're going to get paid, and when they

455
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: miss that first paycheck, perhaps that will start to motivate

456
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: people to do this, and I think it honestly, it's

457
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: a you know, there are two things that I wonder here,

458
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: and I'll get to this a minute, but it is

459
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:17,360
Speaker 1: we're you know, we know that this is what will

460
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 1: trigger the negotiations. But I have to say the fact

461
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 1: that if you look at the democratic demands right unmasking agents,

462
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: there is not a single good argument for masking these agents.

463
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: And I know it says, well, we're trying to protect

464
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 1: them from being docks Well, you know, if you do

465
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 1: your job within the constitutional norms, then you won't worry

466
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: about being docksed if you're an agent, an ice agent

467
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: that is going to break the law or go or

468
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: blur the line between what's legal and not legal. I

469
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 1: understand why you want to protect your identity, but that

470
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 1: shouldn't be no excuse. The body camera shouldn't be decided

471
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 1: by DHS when they get to turn them on or off,

472
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 1: which is apparently what they want to do. So this

473
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 1: is a case where the demands being asked here are

474
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 1: not crazy, and anybody who considers themselves a libertarian and

475
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 1: a believer in the Bill of Rights should be able

476
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: to stand up for these quite easily. It's not very difficult,

477
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 1: and it it just it's it's this is again, you're

478
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 1: trying to restore trust in these agencies, and the fact

479
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 1: that the Trump administration does not want to restore trust

480
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 1: right is pushing back on some of these things is

481
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 1: a problem. But here we are, and I think it's

482
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: it's you know, ab the only way that I think

483
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 1: the Trump administration could buy more time without having to

484
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 1: make huge changes is to fire Nome tomorrow. I just

485
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 1: don't know. You know, Trump seems to be very hesitant

486
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 1: and nervous about having an unemployed Christy Nome and an

487
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 1: unemployed Corey Lwandowski, And you can read all about them

488
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 1: in that crazy well see turtles story about just how

489
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: the two of them are sort of treating DHS like

490
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: it's their personal their personal plaything. But I understand that's

491
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 1: why Trump has decided he fired too many people that

492
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 1: became sources for disgruntled sources for the press, and he

493
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: doesn't want to create that in the old LBJA, do

494
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: you want people pissing into your tent or do you

495
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:21,719
Speaker 1: want people in your tent pissing outside the tent? And

496
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: I think that that is clearly where Trump wants to go.

497
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: But this whole thing, we know, this is a ridiculous standoff.

498
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: And here's the problem. When government behaves like this way,

499
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 1: people will then start treating the government like a joke.

500
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: And when people treat government like a joke, they stop

501
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: following instructions, they stop believing it's warnings, they stop cooperating.

502
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: And that brings me to the pattern that's been screaming

503
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: at me across multiple stories this week. The government says X,

504
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 1: and we will find out later that why happened. We

505
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 1: have yet another incident with ice in Minneapolis, where they

506
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,239
Speaker 1: tell a story now and they fix it later. And

507
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: that culture of tell a story now, fix it later

508
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: culture is all over it right, And this may be

509
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 1: one of the perfect microcosms of the trust problem we

510
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: have with government in this current moment. The immediate impulse

511
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: to tell the most self justifying story possible is clearly

512
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: how Christy Nome operates and how Stephen Miller operates, and

513
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: they try to tell the story as fast as possible.

514
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 1: Only later, when there's video or a judge or a

515
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 1: prosecutor involved, does government start walking back whatever it is

516
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: they were spinning early on. So in Minneapolis, the public

517
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: got a narrative an official narrative right away. Then it shifted,

518
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 1: Then prosecutors moved to dismiss it. Then DHS had to

519
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: acknowledge that accounts didn't match evidence. Then agents were put

520
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: on leave. And let's not skap past the most corrosive

521
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 1: part of this. When law enforcement leads with a narrative

522
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: that demonizes the person who got shot. I'm not even

523
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:53,959
Speaker 1: talking about the dead. This is the gentleman that got

524
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 1: shot in the leg, and then the narrative collapses. It

525
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: justn't just hurts that one case. It teaches the public

526
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: to assume the first version that DHS tells you is propaganda.

527
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 1: And it's pretty clear right now Christine knows. Whatever she

528
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 1: says first, you cannot believe. Even if she's telling you

529
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: the truth, you have no idea whether it's the truth,

530
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 1: because she consistently gaslights the American public. So when the

531
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: first draft of the government story is always self exoneration,

532
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: eventually people will stop believing any draft of the story,

533
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 1: any part of it. It'll always assume to be there's

534
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 1: more than what they're admitting. And there's no doubt. When

535
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 1: things are chaotic and the moment, information changes, and sometimes

536
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: what they truly thought happened, wasn't what it was. But

537
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 1: you have no benefit of the doubt anymore with us.

538
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 1: You have lied too many times, Christine Home, you have

539
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: lied too many times. Stephen Miller, you have lied too

540
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: many times to the public about these narratives involving migrants,

541
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: involving immigrants, involving these ice trades, and so there is

542
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,239
Speaker 1: zero credit. But this is why large majorities now, this

543
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 1: is why the president, who at one time was right

544
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 1: side up on his management of immigration, is now upside now.

545
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: And even on the border itself, he's barely seen as

546
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: doing a good job there simply because of how poor

547
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: and how much they have lied about their ice operations.

548
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 1: The pattern is what matters here, and the pattern right

549
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 1: now is defend first, verified later, if you ever have

550
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 1: to verify at all. And it's the pattern we're seeing

551
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: again this week, including in the skies, the al Paso incident. Right.

552
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 1: I'm sure you woke up the other morning and you

553
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: were like, what the hell's going on in El Paso?

554
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: And are we about to are? I tell you my fear,

555
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 1: we're about to start a war with Mexico. We've got

556
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: about the bomb cartels like why else would you shut

557
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 1: down the airspace for ten days around OL Paso? Right,

558
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 1: So what happened, Well, what we have is a case

559
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: study and why the public distrusts institutions. So we have

560
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: this major extraordinary action that impacts thousands of people, followed

561
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 1: by contradictory explanations as to why it happened, followed by

562
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 1: reporting that suggests the real story is a breakdown in

563
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: inneragency procedure that the government is yet to come go

564
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: public with. In other words, the process failed and then

565
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: the messaging got weird. So the reporting around this story

566
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 1: is one big takeaway. This wasn't just about one incident.

567
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: It was about whether the Pentagon and the Department of

568
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: Homeland Security could move forward with technology without having to

569
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 1: get signed off from the FAA, and whether the FAA

570
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 1: felt forced to pull the emergency brake because it was

571
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: clear to them that the Pentagon and DHS were lying

572
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 1: to them. Right. So, now you have government agencies can't

573
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 1: trust other government agencies, And the FAA is one of

574
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: those semi non political agencies right that are dealing where

575
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: they know they're dealing with political appointees who are all

576
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 1: about politics first. And here's the bigger deal here and

577
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 1: why we want our FAA not to be politicized. If

578
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 1: you want people to fly and trust flying, you need confidence.

579
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 1: You can't have been and this is not happening in

580
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 1: a vacuum. Because we also earlier this week got the

581
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 1: official NTSB report on that twenty twenty five National Airport

582
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 1: collision where sixty seven people were killed, and to me,

583
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 1: it's raised major questions about the military and civilian aviation coordination.

584
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 1: If this wasn't the US Army causing the crash, there'd

585
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: be a lot more a lot more accountability here, all right.

586
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: The US Army clearly was in the fault here, and

587
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:34,719
Speaker 1: they and their decision to even do these training flights

588
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: in the middle of a major airport put lives in danger,

589
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 1: and there should be real accountability, and there's going to

590
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 1: be none. But so when the public sees another episode

591
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: that looks like rules for the carve outs, for me,

592
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: it's going to confirm the following fear that there is

593
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: a national security exception to accountability. Apparently safety is supposed

594
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: to be born. When safety becomes political, people will get hurt.

595
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 1: Just remember that. Now, take that exact same theme process

596
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: the bypass expertise, sideline standard shifting late, and you move

597
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 1: it from planes to public health. And I want to

598
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,399
Speaker 1: tell you the story about the FDA and Maderna, regulatory

599
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: uncertainty and national self harm. Maderna says the FDA refused

600
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 1: even to review it's mRNA based flu vaccine application, what

601
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 1: was called as a refuse to file. Now, whatever you

602
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: think about MODERNA, whatever you think about mRNA, here's what

603
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: does matter. Innovation depends on predictable rules. You can say no,

604
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 1: you can demand more data, you can even reject something.

605
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 1: But when the complaint is that the standard changed late,

606
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: the process got bent, and career staff got overridden, you're

607
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 1: not just deciding one vaccine. You're telling one of the

608
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 1: most serious scientific investors in the world that there is

609
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 1: no longer a stable country to build in Here in

610
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: the United States, you cannot trust the Department of Health

611
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 1: to do the right thing. Regulatory uncertainty is a hidden

612
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: tax on national competence, and competence, like trust is a resource,

613
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: once you drain it, you don't refill it with a

614
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: press release. And what's scary when you read the story

615
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: about the mRNA vaccine right, they were actually working with

616
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 1: the FDA, making sure that the essentially with every little

617
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 1: step of the process, that the FDA was comfortable with

618
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: what they were doing. And then out of nowhere, because

619
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: Kennedy has his crackpot theories, he has no scientific evidence

620
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 1: to back up his beliefs about mRNA vaccines other than

621
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: his crackpot theories. Okay, with a brain that probably was

622
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: drug addled by heroin for a decade. And I'm sorry,

623
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. I think this guy is mentally unfit to

624
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 1: serve in any office in the federal government. And instead

625
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 1: he's in one of the most important offices that have

626
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: to impact my public, our health, all of our health.

627
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 1: And we see what his leadership has done. We have

628
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 1: people dying from the measles, we have a pregnant woman

629
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 1: who killed their child drinking raw milk. And I'm glad

630
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: to know that Kennedy was swimming in a polluted Potomac River.

631
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 1: And now we found out that there's like more sewage

632
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 1: leaking into the Potomac River. But man, what they are

633
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 1: doing to Maderna and MRINA vaccines. Look, I mean, it's

634
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 1: bad business, it's bad for our health. But I guess

635
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,439
Speaker 1: Europeans and the rest of the world will will get

636
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 1: scientific advances while we get to be in the dark

637
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 1: ages here thanks to Kennedy and his leadership. But again,

638
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 1: you cannot trust the government. We can't trust the government

639
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 1: to tell us the truth about air accidents. We can't

640
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: trust the government to tell us the truth about immigration enforcement.

641
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: We can't trust the government, this government in particular, about

642
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:05,359
Speaker 1: the truth when it comes to health. I got one

643
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 1: more to throw in here. What we're seeing now that

644
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,240
Speaker 1: this is a pay to play administration. We had another

645
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: example the removal, departure, resignation, firing of Gail Slater as

646
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 1: the Department of Justice's Anti trust chief reads like another

647
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 1: example of what actually has leverage in this administration. When

648
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 1: powerful interests complain, when big players make money who want

649
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 1: a deal, When allies feud, people become the collateral damage.

650
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 1: Gail Slater was getting in the way of some big

651
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 1: business deals, and they went right to the Trump administration,

652
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 1: and Trump administration agreed that she was getting in the way,

653
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 1: so they got rid of her. She's somebody that's you know.

654
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,800
Speaker 1: Jd Vance is the one member of MAGA who seems

655
00:37:55,840 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: to actually supposedly support stronger government regulation on big business

656
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: and big corporation, particularly big tact right. He was one

657
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 1: of the few Republicans that praise Lena Khan when she

658
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 1: was at the FTC and Gail Slater worked for him.

659
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 1: You know what, you don't hear jd Vance raising his

660
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 1: hand in disagreeing with this decision. But it is yet

661
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: another reminder that you can't trust government to do its

662
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,919
Speaker 1: job properly because ultimately, if somebody writes a big enough

663
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: check to the President, to somebody in the administration, they

664
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 1: can manipulate the Justice Department and the Gail Slater firing, slash, resignation,

665
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it, is yet another example

666
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 1: of that again, can you trust government to regulate an

667
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 1: industry properly without pay to play accusations? So here we are.

668
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 1: It's it's so let me just bring this back to

669
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 1: where we started. Epstein. Epstein isn't just a scandal, It's

670
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 1: a mirror. It reflects how power protects itself. It reflects

671
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 1: how institutions behave when the stakes are reputational and political.

672
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 1: It reflects whether the public believes the system is even

673
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 1: capable of justice when justice is inconvenient. And last week,

674
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:14,760
Speaker 1: watching the government response, watching the posture, watching the defensiveness.

675
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 1: It's not hard to conclude the following, the public's demand

676
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 1: for accountability is real, but this government's capacity to deliver

677
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 1: it is in doubt. And you could say, hey, this

678
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 1: is true of Biden. This is true. Yes, Donald Trump

679
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 1: ran as somebody who was going to fix this, and

680
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 1: instead he has made it worse. He has accelerated it.

681
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 1: We now have less trust and health, less trust in

682
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 1: law enforcement, less trust in big business. And it's really

683
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 1: due to the actions or lack of actions by this administration.

684
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 1: All Right, I'm gonna sneak at a break and when we

685
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 1: come back my conversation with Jean Spurling again. If you

686
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 1: love the West Wing, you're gonna love a good chunk

687
00:39:56,520 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 1: of this interview where we talk about the essentially ekaha

688
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:04,720
Speaker 1: when economic policy and political messaging both collide and align,

689
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 1: and what a future economic messaging might work left or right.

690
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 1: This episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought to you

691
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Speaker 1: by American Financing. Let's be honest, the math just isn't

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693
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694
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695
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696
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Speaker 1: insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I

717
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Speaker 1: was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have

718
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Speaker 1: any money. He didn't leave us in the best shape.

719
00:41:56,040 --> 00:42:00,320
Speaker 1: My mother, single mother, now widow, myself sixteen trying to

720
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 1: figure out how am I going to pay for college

721
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 1: and lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance

722
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Speaker 1: policy that we found wasn't a lot, but it was

723
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 1: important at the time, and it's why I was able

724
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 1: to go to college. Little did he know how important

725
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Speaker 1: that would be in that moment. Well guess what. That's

726
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Speaker 1: why I am here to tell you about Etho's life.

727
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Speaker 1: They can provide you with peace of mind knowing your

728
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729
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Speaker 1: Ethos is an online platform that makes getting life insurance

730
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731
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733
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734
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Speaker 1: a quote in as little as ten minutes, and you

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Speaker 1: can get same day coverage without ever leaving your home.

736
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Speaker 1: You can get up to three million dollars in coverage,

737
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Speaker 1: and some policies start as low as two dollars a

738
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Speaker 1: day that would be billed monthly. As of March twenty

739
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 1: twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number one no

740
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Speaker 1: medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect your family

741
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Speaker 1: with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free quoted Ethos

742
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Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. So again, that's Ethos dot com

743
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Speaker 1: slash chuck. Application times may vary and the rates themselves

744
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Speaker 1: may vary as well, but trust me, life insurance is

745
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Speaker 1: something you should really think about, especially if you've got

746
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 1: a growing family. So my guest today is a man

747
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:33,240
Speaker 1: who's quite literally been in the room where it happens

748
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:38,880
Speaker 1: on and off for over three decades of American economic history.

749
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 1: He is the only person to serve as the Director

750
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 1: of the National Economic Council under two different presidents, Bill

751
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 1: Clint and Barack Obama, and most recently served as the

752
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 1: White House coordinator for the American Rescue Plan for President Biden.

753
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:54,720
Speaker 1: I'll ask him what he did as a child staffer

754
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 1: for Jimmy Carter's presidency, and she's worked for every Democratic

755
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 1: presidency in my adult lifetime. It is Jeene Sperling, And

756
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 1: what I have him on today is actually he's got

757
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 1: a new gig these days. He's the founder and executive

758
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 1: director of what is dubbed the Economic Dignity Lab at

759
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy. Look, Gene is a

760
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 1: think tanker who's actually been a practical government servant as well.

761
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 1: Sometimes you get your think tankers who throw out white

762
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 1: papers and ideas, and you get your government servants who

763
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 1: take those white paper and ideas well. Jean's kind of

764
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 1: been on both sides of it, and it is one

765
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 1: of the few people I know that, while he's wonky,

766
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 1: he also understands campaign politics and that is a unique

767
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:51,280
Speaker 1: breed of individual because it's not an easy thing to find.

768
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 1: And you know, he's got the quirky sense of humor

769
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 1: like I like I do, and like I like. So,

770
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 1: mister Sperling, good to see.

771
00:44:58,280 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 2: You, Thank you chat, thanks you ha.

772
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 1: In fact, I have to say I didn't know the story.

773
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:05,719
Speaker 1: I was asking this. You know why He's coming to

774
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 1: us from California and I'm there going I just think

775
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 1: of Gene as a DC's DC guy, and I'm gonna

776
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: make you quickly tell this just the shortened version of

777
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 1: the story. You're an Angelino because of a fun little

778
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:27,720
Speaker 1: Hollywood meets politics meets real life meets your personal life.

779
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 1: Tell us about it.

780
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you you know, you could have said I've

781
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:34,879
Speaker 2: worked for four presidents, because I had four years where

782
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 2: I was a consultant or part time writer for Jed Bartlett,

783
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 2: the President on the NBC TV show The West Wing.

784
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 2: But yes, the fact I'm coming from you in Santa

785
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 2: Monica or that seems to be my main residence right now,

786
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:55,400
Speaker 2: does not feel comfortable to me. I grew up in

787
00:45:55,520 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 2: ann Arbor, Michigan. We only came to La twice in

788
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 2: my youth, and both times was to watch Michigan lose

789
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 2: to Southern cal in the road.

790
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:08,359
Speaker 1: There you go.

791
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 2: And so when people ask me where I'm from, it's

792
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 2: ann Arbor. When they asked me where I've worked, it's Washington,

793
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 2: d C. So it's very hard for me to kind

794
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 2: of acknowledge that I just happened to be here. But

795
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:24,360
Speaker 2: the story was is that when I got done with Clinton,

796
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 2: I'd gotten to know some of the people on the

797
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 2: TV show West Wing. I really dug in. I worked

798
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 2: on a really good story and I sent it in

799
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 2: and they asked me to do an interview. I went

800
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:38,759
Speaker 2: out to LA and it just happened to be the

801
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 2: day where Aaron Sorkin couldn't meet with me because he

802
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 2: had a little legal trouble in an airport. But they

803
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 2: set up a meeting for me with all the writers

804
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 2: in the commissary. It's very exciting. You walk in. There's

805
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 2: guys from Er walking around. Now.

806
00:46:56,120 --> 00:47:00,040
Speaker 1: It is the old thing, the studio commissaries. Truly, we

807
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 1: are Star Wars bar scenes. You never know who you're

808
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 1: gonna run into.

809
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, just going through at the beginning through the gate,

810
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 2: you think of blazing saddles and them crashing through. So

811
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 2: I go there. I introduced myself. First person on the

812
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 2: left is name Alison Abner. She's just starting her second

813
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,280
Speaker 2: year writing for the West Wing, and I say hello,

814
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 2: and what the heck? We got married. We've been together

815
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 2: twenty five years, so I've been you know, I've been

816
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 2: a bicoastal you know, spouse, and that means we've probably

817
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 2: lived about a third of the time in DC, a

818
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 2: third of the time in Santa Monica, and a third

819
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 2: of the time, including the entire Biden White House. I

820
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:52,719
Speaker 2: commuted back and forth every single week, even more than

821
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 2: a California member of Congress.

822
00:47:54,560 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: Would you are it allows you mess? You know, you know,

823
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's a good thing or a

824
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 1: bad thing about showing off in a life. If you've

825
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:09,040
Speaker 1: hit all these great statuses on airplanes, it means you're

826
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 1: never at home.

827
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 2: No, you know. For me, what it's about is I

828
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 2: work like crazy on planes so that every moment I'm home,

829
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 2: I can be with my family. So I'd say the

830
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 2: only time this whole thing was unbelievably painful was my

831
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 2: third year with President Obama. My wife had gone back

832
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 2: to start restarter her TV writing career. My son graduated

833
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:40,359
Speaker 2: from high school, and I had about ten months where

834
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 2: I was commuting back and forth, and my daughter was

835
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 2: like seven or eight, and I used to get in

836
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 2: the car and just cry sometimes. But this last time,

837
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 2: thanks to Zoom and other things I didn't have, you know,

838
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 2: you could kind of be half there, half here. And

839
00:48:56,480 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 2: my daughter was sixteen seventeen and eighteen, and everybody knows

840
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 2: at sixteen seventeen and eighteen. They're not dying for you

841
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 2: to be there in their face every single night. So

842
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:08,160
Speaker 2: that part was okay.

843
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 1: Let me I want to I want to dispense with

844
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:15,760
Speaker 1: one thing about West Wing. I have been people always

845
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 1: assume I love the show, and I always say, you

846
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: know what, I've never I've never watched a full season,

847
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 1: and let me tell you why, gee, and you can

848
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 1: tell and tell me why I'm wrong, because I know

849
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:27,400
Speaker 1: you're going to be a defender, and I mean this,

850
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 1: It's not as if I've seen quite a few episodes

851
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 1: and they're really good and they're really interesting, don't get

852
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 1: me wrong, but I always found it more unrealistic than realistic.

853
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:44,399
Speaker 1: And what I always hated was when people say, why

854
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 1: can't it be done like it was on West Wing?

855
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:49,319
Speaker 1: And I'm like, because west Wing was never you know,

856
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 1: and I've had this argument. I've actually I got arguments

857
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 1: a wrong word, a strong word, A debate with mister

858
00:49:55,880 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 1: Sorkin where because he did it with Newsroom too, where

859
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 1: he's creating a utopia of what could be if you

860
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 1: had a year to prepare for every news cycle, for

861
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:12,240
Speaker 1: instance in Newsroom, or you had five years of historical

862
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,399
Speaker 1: context to then figure out how to have done it.

863
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:19,399
Speaker 1: So and perhaps I'm like too jaded because I'm old

864
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 1: hotline guy.

865
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:23,360
Speaker 2: Right, you're too jaded because you're old hotline.

866
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 1: I understand that. Tell me make the best case for

867
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 1: somebody today of why West Wing actually is emblematic of

868
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 1: how governing works well.

869
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 2: Listen, It's hard for me to think about the current

870
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 2: White House and how it functions well, but I would

871
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 2: say that if that for looked at the last couple

872
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:50,279
Speaker 2: administrations and the years of Republican administrations before that, I

873
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 2: really do feel that there is a core truth in

874
00:50:54,360 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 2: the West Wing which the people there who are there

875
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 2: are privileged to be there, really are there to do

876
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 2: good for the world, but they're in a very highly

877
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 2: toxic and political environment. And so I think the way

878
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:15,759
Speaker 2: that West Wing is more realistic than some of the

879
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 2: other Scandal and other shows out there is that those

880
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 2: shows tend to show people who are only there to

881
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 2: self deal to corrupt things, and I think what the

882
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:33,240
Speaker 2: West Wing did show was a group of people who

883
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 2: were trying to do something idealistic, but they're in a

884
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 2: very very political environment. And if you're not political political

885
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,240
Speaker 2: and you don't deal with those issues, you don't do well.

886
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 2: I think what makes me sad a little bit is

887
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:51,959
Speaker 2: I'm I spent a long time telling people that that's

888
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 2: the way white Houses really were. I'm not quite so

889
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 2: sure that the West Wing is an accurate perception of

890
00:51:58,960 --> 00:51:59,879
Speaker 2: the current White House.

891
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 1: West Wing or Veep, who portrays staffers best.

892
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:10,879
Speaker 2: Well, I liked Veep too because I think Veep. I mean,

893
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:14,400
Speaker 2: of course, in Veep, nobody's really a good guy, but

894
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 2: it's meant as a satire.

895
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 1: It's meant I guess, I mean, there are good Yeah.

896
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 2: It's showing the real conflicts people are dealing with from

897
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 2: a kind of cynical point of view. But I still

898
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 2: really enjoyed that. I enjoyed the other shows too. I

899
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: just used to not like when people would kind of

900
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:38,879
Speaker 2: think that that was more realistic than the West Wing.

901
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 1: Well, I hate when people say, oh, politics is like

902
00:52:41,760 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 1: House of Cards. I'm like, no, it's stop right, Like

903
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:48,839
Speaker 1: I'm like stop, that is not and that would so

904
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 1: that's where I always get I I you know, I

905
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:57,360
Speaker 1: would basly that. Then then again, like you know, I

906
00:52:57,360 --> 00:53:00,040
Speaker 1: can watch a few Good Men two thousand times and

907
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 1: I probably watched it two thousand times, so it's not

908
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 1: that I don't love a good Aaron Sorkin script, that's

909
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 1: for sure. I mean, the man is a genius television writer.

910
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:09,600
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it.

911
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 2: When it comes to dialogue, all right, whenever I see Aaron,

912
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:16,799
Speaker 2: he asked me how my wife Allison is doing, and

913
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:19,919
Speaker 2: I say, we're still together. And he says the two

914
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 2: lasting things of the West Wing residual checks and gene

915
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:25,759
Speaker 2: and Allison's marriage.

916
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 1: By the way, right when HBO Max was got to

917
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 1: get rid of it, there was like an uproar and

918
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,000
Speaker 1: it reminded people, so it kept the checks coming, right.

919
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 2: It really is. One thing I really will say is

920
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:40,800
Speaker 2: the number of people who I've seen actually go into

921
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:45,360
Speaker 2: public service. I mean, famously Cody Keenan, who well who.

922
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 1: Watched it in it like inspired them to do it.

923
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And I think, you know, I don't think

924
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 2: it was a TV show for me, but I think

925
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:57,240
Speaker 2: you would see, you know, I'd see people huddled around

926
00:53:57,480 --> 00:54:01,279
Speaker 2: RFK when I was a kid in sixty eight, and

927
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 2: you know, I think sometimes you know that perception that

928
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:07,359
Speaker 2: that's something positive, that you can do good things, that

929
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 2: you don't have to be the candidate to make a difference,

930
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 2: and help people's lives or fight for justice. I think

931
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 2: it's a positive thing and it's still pretty influential on

932
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 2: a lot of college campuses around the country.

933
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 1: Right, it has had a lot of staying power. Have

934
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 1: you how serious have reboots been thrown around?

935
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 2: I think it's more people toying with people. I mean,

936
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 2: you know, I stay in touch with Brad Whitford in

937
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 2: Delay Hill, and I did run in and I did

938
00:54:41,200 --> 00:54:46,239
Speaker 2: get to see Aaron Sorkin and Martin when we did

939
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:49,880
Speaker 2: a twenty fifth anniversary celebration at the White House. But

940
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:54,320
Speaker 2: I think there was once where I kind of was like, hey, guys,

941
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,400
Speaker 2: if this happens and I'm out of government, remember me.

942
00:54:57,880 --> 00:54:59,839
Speaker 2: And I kind of got the word back. Now we're

943
00:54:59,880 --> 00:55:03,720
Speaker 2: just we're just toy in with you. But we'll see.

944
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:07,120
Speaker 1: Before I get to what you're working on. Because I think, look,

945
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:09,600
Speaker 1: I think and we've been I think we were in

946
00:55:09,600 --> 00:55:11,720
Speaker 1: a room together not too long ago. I think AI

947
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 1: job displacement is going to drive political debates fear of

948
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 1: AI job displacement over the next decade. Whether it hits

949
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 1: is another story. Right, there's the fear of it, and

950
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:26,040
Speaker 1: then there's the actual fear is going to drive a

951
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:28,360
Speaker 1: lot of political particularly in twenty twenty eight. So I

952
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 1: want to get to that. But before we get to that,

953
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:33,680
Speaker 1: what's the state of the economy? What do you look

954
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:37,680
Speaker 1: at on a week to week basis to give your

955
00:55:37,880 --> 00:55:41,760
Speaker 1: bit to what touchstones do you look at to determine

956
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 1: whether this is a good economy, a bad economy, or

957
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:46,480
Speaker 1: a shaky economy.

958
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:50,360
Speaker 2: So I think there's moments where you pretty much know

959
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 2: what you're looking for. Things are pretty clear, even if

960
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 2: you don't know what the exact narrative how it's going

961
00:55:58,000 --> 00:55:59,840
Speaker 2: to turn out, you know what the narrative is. This

962
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:03,200
Speaker 2: is a little bit of a tricky time. I think

963
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 2: that what you were looking for after the kind of

964
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 2: worst of the post pandemic supply chain shocks and global

965
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:16,279
Speaker 2: inflation was you were looking for what everybody called the

966
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:19,640
Speaker 2: soft landing, and what that meant was that we would

967
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:24,879
Speaker 2: be able to return to more of a normal, stable economy.

968
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 2: So the Biden economy had amazing job growth, incredibly low unemployment,

969
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:36,280
Speaker 2: but there was also high inflation. And you know, people

970
00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:40,239
Speaker 2: will fight forever, people like myself will say it was global,

971
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 2: it was everywhere. It wasn't really a factor of Biden policies.

972
00:56:44,920 --> 00:56:48,759
Speaker 2: But whatever you thought the cause was, people wanted to

973
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:54,480
Speaker 2: see that soft landing. So what's interesting is that you've

974
00:56:54,640 --> 00:57:01,080
Speaker 2: had pretty close to what people hope for. When you

975
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:07,239
Speaker 2: had high inflation. You can remember that Larry Summers famously said, oh,

976
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 2: the only way you're going to bring this down is

977
00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:13,520
Speaker 2: to have ten percent unemployment or two years of seven

978
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 2: and a half percent unemployment or five years of six percent.

979
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 2: Well that didn't happen. So the good news was that

980
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 2: we've been able to so far avoid a uh, you know,

981
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 2: avoid caming inflation inflation only in a Paul Voker sense

982
00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:33,880
Speaker 2: of well, I was.

983
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 1: Just gonna say, let me, let's let's put a pause

984
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:41,800
Speaker 1: before you jump to that part. Doesn't this reinforce not

985
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 1: a belief anymore? But is this now a confirmation that

986
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:52,920
Speaker 1: this was essentially COVID related, COVID inspired, COVID driven, and

987
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: because we had the artificial stoppage and then and then

988
00:57:57,560 --> 00:57:59,440
Speaker 1: suddenly it's sort of like kicking a hose and then

989
00:57:59,480 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 1: on kicking and a surge of product and a surge

990
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 1: of money, and a surge of this. You know, as

991
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 1: fast as it went up is as fast as it

992
00:58:07,040 --> 00:58:11,640
Speaker 1: went down. The fact that it didn't take ten percent

993
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 1: interest rates and it didn't take ten percent unemployment. Is

994
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 1: that now confirmation for you that this was global and

995
00:58:20,080 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 1: ninety five percent COVID?

996
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:24,840
Speaker 2: I think for me it is. I think it is

997
00:58:24,880 --> 00:58:27,560
Speaker 2: for a lot of people. I think it's hard to have,

998
00:58:28,240 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 2: you know, this easy objective conversation because one, there's so

999
00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:36,920
Speaker 2: much politics involved, and you know, there's such a desire

1000
00:58:37,080 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 2: for the current administration to blame the last administration. There's

1001
00:58:41,240 --> 00:58:43,680
Speaker 2: so many people on the Democratic side that are just

1002
00:58:43,960 --> 00:58:50,600
Speaker 2: disappointed that Joe Biden lost and that people ignored people

1003
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 2: were so unhappy about prices. So there's so much political debate.

1004
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 2: But you know, I do think that for a lot

1005
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 2: of people, I cited an article Mark Zandy from Moody's,

1006
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 2: Peter orzag Our, former O and B director, and others

1007
00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 2: who definitely feel that the fact that this came down

1008
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:20,680
Speaker 2: without engineering a recession was evidence that this was overall

1009
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 2: globally inspired pandemic related supply shot chain that said people

1010
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:34,320
Speaker 2: will still debate the American rescue plan, and I don't

1011
00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 2: think there's I think politically you'll hear Republicans now say,

1012
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:42,360
Speaker 2: oh my god, everything that happened, you know, bad was

1013
00:59:42,480 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 2: due to Joe biden American Rescue Plan. That's clearly not true. Clearly,

1014
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 2: the American Rescue Plan had some very good effects in

1015
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:53,320
Speaker 2: making us the leader and growth in the G seven, lower,

1016
00:59:53,400 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 2: unemployment less scarring long term negative impacts. But people little

1017
01:00:00,320 --> 01:00:04,120
Speaker 2: debate the inflation impact. And I think that the reasonable

1018
01:00:04,160 --> 01:00:08,200
Speaker 2: debate says, hey, maybe it led to inflation here being

1019
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:11,400
Speaker 2: a point or a point half higher than it would

1020
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 2: have been, but it had these good parts. And I'd

1021
01:00:14,520 --> 01:00:16,680
Speaker 2: say the people who are most critical would say, no,

1022
01:00:16,720 --> 01:00:20,120
Speaker 2: it's more like three points higher. But I think you

1023
01:00:20,160 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 2: and I both know that in twenty twenty two, after

1024
01:00:23,960 --> 01:00:29,040
Speaker 2: Putin invaded Ukraine, you know, inflation almost everywhere in the

1025
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 2: world was seven eight nine percent, regardless of whether people

1026
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:38,240
Speaker 2: had done a major fiscal stimulus. And you also saw

1027
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:43,160
Speaker 2: every head of state did poorly everywhere in the world.

1028
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:47,000
Speaker 1: Now, that could be an anti.

1029
01:00:46,720 --> 01:00:51,520
Speaker 2: A reincumbent, you know, an incumbent in that setting, but

1030
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 2: you know, for me, I think it is you know,

1031
01:00:54,360 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 2: I think the fact that inflation went up everywhere and

1032
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 2: the way it came down, you know, it does confirm

1033
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:04,240
Speaker 2: that this was not fundamentally about fiscal policy, but about

1034
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:07,520
Speaker 2: the pandemic. But again, to be fair to some of

1035
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:10,640
Speaker 2: the people who disagree with me, they would say, you know,

1036
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 2: it's a more nuanced.

1037
01:01:13,520 --> 01:01:24,520
Speaker 3: Analysis fifty years from now.

1038
01:01:26,320 --> 01:01:28,600
Speaker 1: In an economics class that might look at a couple

1039
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:36,120
Speaker 1: of case studies about what you do in an economic crisis,

1040
01:01:36,160 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 1: either one that's directly about the economy, like what we

1041
01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 1: had with the housing crisis and the Great Recession, or

1042
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:44,840
Speaker 1: something like COVID, which sort of impacted the global economy.

1043
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 1: One of the things that my simple hot take has

1044
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:54,600
Speaker 1: always been, we had two choices with COVID. We either

1045
01:01:54,640 --> 01:01:59,400
Speaker 1: had inflation or recession, and if we didn't throw money.

1046
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:02,640
Speaker 1: If we had handled COVID the way we'd handled the

1047
01:02:02,720 --> 01:02:08,040
Speaker 1: housing crisis, which is to be fiscally a bit small

1048
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 1: se conservative about how much money we threw at the issue,

1049
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:15,760
Speaker 1: we probably prevent inflation, but we might have had a

1050
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:20,520
Speaker 1: massive recession. The less I've always felt is if that COVID,

1051
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:24,800
Speaker 1: coming just within a decade of the Great Recession, sort

1052
01:02:24,840 --> 01:02:27,880
Speaker 1: of got everybody thinking, hey, we better if we're not sure,

1053
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 1: throw a little bit more money at it. Let's not underfund,

1054
01:02:31,360 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 1: let's overfund. Do you think fifty years from now, that's

1055
01:02:35,160 --> 01:02:37,160
Speaker 1: how we'll look at those two events, and it's sort

1056
01:02:37,160 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 1: of when it comes to government intervention, the economic crisis,

1057
01:02:40,640 --> 01:02:43,320
Speaker 1: the Great Recession will always be seen as an example

1058
01:02:43,360 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 1: of government not doing enough, and COVID will be seeing

1059
01:02:47,840 --> 01:02:50,600
Speaker 1: as an example of when government does a little too much.

1060
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 1: I know I'm being very I'm asking for a black

1061
01:02:54,360 --> 01:02:57,000
Speaker 1: and white hot take on something that could be incredibly new.

1062
01:02:57,600 --> 01:03:03,000
Speaker 2: But generally speaking, written on this exact topic. I wrote

1063
01:03:03,040 --> 01:03:05,920
Speaker 2: in the Wall Street Journal a while ago on the

1064
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 2: lessons learned argument, and I think people will debate this.

1065
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 2: I think that there's kind of a will be you know.

1066
01:03:14,840 --> 01:03:17,160
Speaker 2: I think some people will make it a more simple

1067
01:03:17,800 --> 01:03:21,440
Speaker 2: argument of uh, you know. But even then there's a

1068
01:03:21,560 --> 01:03:26,640
Speaker 2: question of lessons learned or lessons overlearned. So the lessons

1069
01:03:26,800 --> 01:03:33,400
Speaker 2: overlearned argument was one you did too little in the

1070
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 2: financial crisis. I don't think by the way that was

1071
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:39,840
Speaker 2: by intent by President Obama as someone there. I just

1072
01:03:39,880 --> 01:03:41,640
Speaker 2: think you couldn't get it, couldn't get.

1073
01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:45,480
Speaker 1: To politically look by the way in fairness, politically it

1074
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 1: will I mean, you couldn't cross that that number. It

1075
01:03:49,720 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 1: had to be under a truth exactly. You know, there

1076
01:03:52,040 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 1: was sometimes people think there was just debate. But I

1077
01:03:55,640 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 1: do think that there was also a sense in two

1078
01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:03,240
Speaker 1: thousand and eight two thousand and nine that if you

1079
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:06,880
Speaker 1: were wrong, maybe you could come back and get more.

1080
01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:10,600
Speaker 1: And I think one of the lessons that was learned

1081
01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:16,720
Speaker 1: there was, hey, you may only get one shot, so

1082
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:20,760
Speaker 1: you might go bigger because you may not get another shot.

1083
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:26,160
Speaker 1: Two is the insurance policy.

1084
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:31,200
Speaker 2: Other things might happen, like who would have predicted Putin

1085
01:04:31,320 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 2: was going to invade Ukraine? As you remember, in the

1086
01:04:34,320 --> 01:04:38,480
Speaker 2: financial crisis, there was the grease in you're a financial crisis,

1087
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:42,120
Speaker 2: So another argument is put a little extra because there

1088
01:04:42,200 --> 01:04:45,320
Speaker 2: might be unknowns that are going to slow you down

1089
01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:50,520
Speaker 2: even more. One lesson I really think we learned well

1090
01:04:51,160 --> 01:04:54,640
Speaker 2: was that when you don't do enough right away, there's

1091
01:04:54,680 --> 01:04:58,240
Speaker 2: a lot of long term suffering that takes place, long

1092
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:02,400
Speaker 2: term unemployment, people who couldn't get into the job market

1093
01:05:02,480 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 2: for four or five years. Economists actually have a phrase

1094
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:09,680
Speaker 2: that makes sense. They call it scarring, and it's right.

1095
01:05:09,760 --> 01:05:12,440
Speaker 2: What it means is they didn't These people didn't just

1096
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 2: suffer for a year or two. Their lifetime earnings were changed.

1097
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:21,720
Speaker 2: Their rates of divorce and alcoholism and suicide or deaths

1098
01:05:21,720 --> 01:05:26,440
Speaker 2: of despair were changed. So one good lesson learned was

1099
01:05:26,520 --> 01:05:30,080
Speaker 2: that in this financial crisis, you had a lot of

1100
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:32,800
Speaker 2: strength right away, and so you didn't get the long

1101
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:36,960
Speaker 2: term unemployment. We had a policy that actually prevented millions

1102
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:40,800
Speaker 2: of people from being evicted. So I think on the whole,

1103
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:46,440
Speaker 2: the argument will be that the American Rescue Plan did

1104
01:05:46,600 --> 01:05:51,640
Speaker 2: properly learn the lessons. The counter will be, well, but

1105
01:05:51,760 --> 01:05:55,480
Speaker 2: maybe you overlearned by doing a little bit too much.

1106
01:05:55,560 --> 01:05:58,680
Speaker 2: And that's the people who will argue that the American

1107
01:05:58,760 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 2: Rescue Plan, even if it wasn't the cause of all

1108
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:05,600
Speaker 2: the inflation or even most of inflation, kind of added

1109
01:06:05,640 --> 01:06:08,080
Speaker 2: to it. And that's where I think you will continue

1110
01:06:08,480 --> 01:06:11,760
Speaker 2: to have the debates where people like myself will say,

1111
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 2: and probably Jared Bernstein would say, and Peter orzagnersay, didn't

1112
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:19,760
Speaker 2: have that much, But my friend Jason Furman would say,

1113
01:06:20,760 --> 01:06:22,840
Speaker 2: you know, you should have done a bit more. I

1114
01:06:22,880 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 2: do think what will happen going forward, Chuck, from now

1115
01:06:25,920 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 2: on is that I do think you had an entire

1116
01:06:28,680 --> 01:06:32,320
Speaker 2: generation of people who had never seen significant inflation.

1117
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:35,480
Speaker 1: And so I'm not sorry, that's one hundred percent right,

1118
01:06:35,560 --> 01:06:37,720
Speaker 1: Like I I you know, I would sit there and

1119
01:06:37,760 --> 01:06:40,600
Speaker 1: say I had a memory of my of my parents

1120
01:06:41,400 --> 01:06:45,720
Speaker 1: excited when interest rates got from double digits to single digits.

1121
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:49,520
Speaker 1: So I had at least remembered that era, and of

1122
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:51,800
Speaker 1: the era of the late seventies and early eighties. And

1123
01:06:52,000 --> 01:06:54,240
Speaker 1: it did. I mean, we were one of those working

1124
01:06:54,280 --> 01:06:57,919
Speaker 1: class families that we couldn't afford a house until interest

1125
01:06:58,000 --> 01:07:01,280
Speaker 1: rates finally got to I think was just under nine

1126
01:07:01,320 --> 01:07:05,080
Speaker 1: percent and we could finally get into a house exactly.

1127
01:07:05,560 --> 01:07:07,600
Speaker 1: That was a big deal. Four.

1128
01:07:08,240 --> 01:07:12,680
Speaker 2: When Reagan runs on mourning in America, things really aren't

1129
01:07:12,800 --> 01:07:14,120
Speaker 2: very good inflation.

1130
01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:15,560
Speaker 1: They were better than they were.

1131
01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:20,600
Speaker 2: That's the key. It had. People remembered things being bad

1132
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:25,000
Speaker 2: for so long that when it improved, Reagan got lots

1133
01:07:25,000 --> 01:07:28,520
Speaker 2: of credit. And what hurt President Biden is that even

1134
01:07:28,600 --> 01:07:33,880
Speaker 2: when inflation came down, people still remembered beef and milk

1135
01:07:34,120 --> 01:07:38,320
Speaker 2: and cheese and eggs being lower. And so I do

1136
01:07:38,360 --> 01:07:42,720
Speaker 2: think that even though I don't believe the American Rescue

1137
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:47,000
Speaker 2: Plan was the cause of most or even a significant

1138
01:07:47,040 --> 01:07:49,960
Speaker 2: amount of the inflation, do I think that next time

1139
01:07:50,040 --> 01:07:53,200
Speaker 2: around people will think about it more, or worry a

1140
01:07:53,280 --> 01:07:57,480
Speaker 2: little bit, or do the balance more. Yes, because they've

1141
01:07:57,520 --> 01:08:01,040
Speaker 2: now lived through a world where they saw President Biden

1142
01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:04,240
Speaker 2: do what you and I would have predicted would have

1143
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:08,120
Speaker 2: been a winning hand going into twenty four, which was

1144
01:08:08,480 --> 01:08:13,360
Speaker 2: inflation coming down under three percent, record low unemployment, and

1145
01:08:14,080 --> 01:08:19,080
Speaker 2: all of those things were dwarfed by people's unhappiness with

1146
01:08:20,479 --> 01:08:25,040
Speaker 2: everyday prices that they went to the grocery store and saw.

1147
01:08:25,400 --> 01:08:28,799
Speaker 2: And that is both a polity, that's an economic lesson,

1148
01:08:28,800 --> 01:08:31,000
Speaker 2: but it's also going to be a political lesson for

1149
01:08:31,680 --> 01:08:32,680
Speaker 2: I think a generation.

1150
01:08:33,040 --> 01:08:35,240
Speaker 1: I mean, what the seventies taught me and especially now

1151
01:08:35,240 --> 01:08:39,839
Speaker 1: looking in hindsight, is that inflation is nonpartisan, or inflation

1152
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:42,439
Speaker 1: is bipartisan, however you want to say it. In this respect,

1153
01:08:42,680 --> 01:08:48,439
Speaker 1: inflation took down three presidents, right, Richard Nixon is loses

1154
01:08:48,479 --> 01:08:51,120
Speaker 1: support among Republicans. People always forget this. If the economy

1155
01:08:51,160 --> 01:08:53,920
Speaker 1: is better, Nixon fights harder, and Republicans probably fight on

1156
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:57,520
Speaker 1: his behalf and maybe, but you know, the bad economy

1157
01:08:57,920 --> 01:09:01,560
Speaker 1: was a secret sauce that that made it easier to

1158
01:09:01,640 --> 01:09:02,120
Speaker 1: dump him.

1159
01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:03,519
Speaker 2: Forward.

1160
01:09:04,080 --> 01:09:05,800
Speaker 1: Look at the end of the day, right, you know,

1161
01:09:06,320 --> 01:09:09,599
Speaker 1: whip inflation now that terrible, you know slogan he had

1162
01:09:09,680 --> 01:09:13,960
Speaker 1: win win, Whip inflation, Now that didn't work. And then Carter,

1163
01:09:14,200 --> 01:09:16,920
Speaker 1: you know one because of it and then immediately lost

1164
01:09:16,920 --> 01:09:19,160
Speaker 1: because of it. So the point is is that it

1165
01:09:19,840 --> 01:09:22,680
Speaker 1: was a reminder that the American public just focuses on

1166
01:09:22,720 --> 01:09:25,760
Speaker 1: what's in front of them, not what not always what

1167
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:29,560
Speaker 1: what was, it's what is, and inflation is one of

1168
01:09:29,560 --> 01:09:30,040
Speaker 1: those what is.

1169
01:09:30,240 --> 01:09:35,120
Speaker 2: Ord. The other thing too, is that if you're preventing,

1170
01:09:35,320 --> 01:09:38,479
Speaker 2: if you have greater job growth, lower unemployment, those things

1171
01:09:38,520 --> 01:09:43,400
Speaker 2: are good and important. They don't affect everybody, right, you know,

1172
01:09:43,479 --> 01:09:45,760
Speaker 2: the inflation does. Now. One thing you and I did

1173
01:09:45,800 --> 01:09:49,960
Speaker 2: know politically was we did know that gas prices have

1174
01:09:50,120 --> 01:09:53,600
Speaker 2: a disproportionate impact on presidential approval.

1175
01:09:54,040 --> 01:09:56,479
Speaker 1: Well that and that also is a scar from the

1176
01:09:56,560 --> 01:10:01,479
Speaker 1: seventies and gas lines and I mean, my those are

1177
01:10:01,600 --> 01:10:04,760
Speaker 1: bright memories for me, right, But I think what.

1178
01:10:05,360 --> 01:10:09,640
Speaker 2: Was learned in twenty three and twenty four was that

1179
01:10:09,800 --> 01:10:14,880
Speaker 2: it's not gas prices per se. It's everyday prices that

1180
01:10:15,040 --> 01:10:18,680
Speaker 2: somebody is confronted with on a week by week basis.

1181
01:10:19,120 --> 01:10:23,040
Speaker 2: And so even though inflation's coming down, even though the

1182
01:10:23,160 --> 01:10:26,560
Speaker 2: job market is good, people are going through the grocery

1183
01:10:26,600 --> 01:10:31,439
Speaker 2: line or the gas line and they're not happy. And

1184
01:10:31,439 --> 01:10:34,720
Speaker 2: that's hitting a much wider number of people. And the

1185
01:10:34,800 --> 01:10:39,840
Speaker 2: other thing that's interesting is I mean, you could say

1186
01:10:39,880 --> 01:10:42,839
Speaker 2: it's American, but you could also say we learned its global.

1187
01:10:43,240 --> 01:10:48,240
Speaker 2: You can't name one incumbent head of state in the

1188
01:10:48,400 --> 01:10:53,840
Speaker 2: post pandemic period that did very well, not a single one,

1189
01:10:54,479 --> 01:10:58,160
Speaker 2: and so you know, I think it's an unusual combination

1190
01:10:58,320 --> 01:11:04,320
Speaker 2: of inflation all the reins of the pandemic, but it's

1191
01:11:04,400 --> 01:11:06,360
Speaker 2: kind of you know, one thing you can't do is

1192
01:11:06,360 --> 01:11:10,080
Speaker 2: say if only Joe Biden had done like incumbent x

1193
01:11:10,280 --> 01:11:13,679
Speaker 2: or Y had done. There are no ones. So that

1194
01:11:13,760 --> 01:11:18,839
Speaker 2: again does suggest that the kind of unhappiness of people

1195
01:11:18,880 --> 01:11:22,400
Speaker 2: dealing with everyday price is going higher. And it's what

1196
01:11:22,640 --> 01:11:28,040
Speaker 2: makes things so puzzling about President Trump is that he

1197
01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:32,280
Speaker 2: now has seen all these things happen. He's learned this lesson.

1198
01:11:32,680 --> 01:11:37,240
Speaker 2: He's got the benefit of hindsight, and this is a

1199
01:11:37,280 --> 01:11:39,880
Speaker 2: point people never make, but they need to when he

1200
01:11:40,040 --> 01:11:43,960
Speaker 2: comes in. Not only is inflation a little under three percent,

1201
01:11:44,520 --> 01:11:48,920
Speaker 2: every major forecaster in the country is projecting it's going

1202
01:11:48,960 --> 01:11:51,360
Speaker 2: down to two percent. So I think a lot of

1203
01:11:51,400 --> 01:11:54,719
Speaker 2: people on like the Bien Economic team, are like, boy,

1204
01:11:54,840 --> 01:11:58,439
Speaker 2: bad luck for us. Our soft landing is on its

1205
01:11:58,520 --> 01:12:01,320
Speaker 2: way and it's going to land because of the hard.

1206
01:12:01,080 --> 01:12:03,240
Speaker 1: Work we did with the second time in a row

1207
01:12:03,280 --> 01:12:06,679
Speaker 1: that Trump inherit's a healing economy from a democratic president, right.

1208
01:12:06,680 --> 01:12:08,840
Speaker 2: I know, and then he goes out of his way

1209
01:12:08,960 --> 01:12:14,920
Speaker 2: to ignore every political lesson and put tariffs on everyday products.

1210
01:12:15,080 --> 01:12:17,479
Speaker 2: So that's why I've said before. You know, when they

1211
01:12:17,520 --> 01:12:20,920
Speaker 2: say it's the Biden economy, I say, no, it's the

1212
01:12:21,000 --> 01:12:24,519
Speaker 2: self inflicted wound economy. You could have just done nothing

1213
01:12:24,720 --> 01:12:27,920
Speaker 2: and coasted on the Biden economy. You've gone out of

1214
01:12:27,960 --> 01:12:31,920
Speaker 2: your way to keep inflation not just higher, but in

1215
01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:37,160
Speaker 2: a lot of those everyday products. That makes people so unhappy.

1216
01:12:38,320 --> 01:12:41,320
Speaker 1: There is I'm curious your take on whether it is.

1217
01:12:41,400 --> 01:12:45,000
Speaker 1: I'm sure you don't think it's fair that service for

1218
01:12:45,120 --> 01:12:47,280
Speaker 1: the in the Biden white House might be seen as

1219
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:49,400
Speaker 1: a demerit if you run for president. But what do

1220
01:12:49,439 --> 01:12:51,560
Speaker 1: you make of this issue for Pete budd.

1221
01:12:53,080 --> 01:12:56,920
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I think that, Yeah, I think it's

1222
01:12:57,040 --> 01:13:00,920
Speaker 2: a long ways to go. And you know, I'm like you,

1223
01:13:01,040 --> 01:13:04,080
Speaker 2: I'm an addict, so I a political you know, I'm

1224
01:13:04,080 --> 01:13:11,360
Speaker 2: as much of a so I follow it, but I

1225
01:13:11,400 --> 01:13:15,759
Speaker 2: think it's a long ways a way. I do think

1226
01:13:15,840 --> 01:13:21,280
Speaker 2: that I do think that that people are you know.

1227
01:13:21,360 --> 01:13:24,719
Speaker 2: I think the debate that happened in the Biden White

1228
01:13:24,760 --> 01:13:28,000
Speaker 2: House and where some of us might have different views,

1229
01:13:28,280 --> 01:13:32,519
Speaker 2: has been greatly exaggerated. It's as if like President Biden

1230
01:13:32,920 --> 01:13:37,400
Speaker 2: didn't care about affordability. Of course, he was running, you know,

1231
01:13:37,479 --> 01:13:41,840
Speaker 2: he was the one who did the prescription drugs, you know,

1232
01:13:42,120 --> 01:13:45,640
Speaker 2: bring down prescription drugs and key things. He was the

1233
01:13:45,640 --> 01:13:50,240
Speaker 2: one focusing on lowering electricity and energy prices our whole

1234
01:13:50,600 --> 01:13:54,479
Speaker 2: We had a major childcare initiative, which, even as you

1235
01:13:54,520 --> 01:13:57,920
Speaker 2: saw with Mayor Mandami, is one of the key issues.

1236
01:13:58,400 --> 01:14:01,000
Speaker 2: So I think people are wrong to think there wasn't

1237
01:14:01,040 --> 01:14:04,519
Speaker 2: affordability focus. I think what it really came down to,

1238
01:14:05,680 --> 01:14:07,519
Speaker 2: and maybe where I sometimes had a little bit of

1239
01:14:07,560 --> 01:14:10,919
Speaker 2: a different view, was that I did get my political

1240
01:14:11,000 --> 01:14:15,080
Speaker 2: upbringing with Bill Clinton. And Bill Clinton was known as

1241
01:14:15,160 --> 01:14:18,240
Speaker 2: the feel you're paying guy, And there's truth to that.

1242
01:14:18,680 --> 01:14:21,640
Speaker 2: Bill Clinton told me in my first few months in

1243
01:14:21,640 --> 01:14:26,200
Speaker 2: the White House when I was writing the statements from him,

1244
01:14:26,479 --> 01:14:30,800
Speaker 2: he said, never write a statement that wouldn't seem right

1245
01:14:30,880 --> 01:14:34,959
Speaker 2: to somebody in one of the thirty worst economic counties.

1246
01:14:36,240 --> 01:14:40,759
Speaker 2: That so, in other words, stay connected and touched first.

1247
01:14:41,280 --> 01:14:44,240
Speaker 2: I think what happened with Biden was there was a

1248
01:14:44,400 --> 01:14:48,080
Speaker 2: conflict between that and the saying, hey, if you don't

1249
01:14:48,080 --> 01:14:50,200
Speaker 2: put forward your best foot, nobody would.

1250
01:14:50,720 --> 01:14:54,439
Speaker 1: So it was the wrong lesson learned from Trump. I

1251
01:14:54,479 --> 01:14:57,360
Speaker 1: think there's a there's a there's a it's interesting you

1252
01:14:57,360 --> 01:15:00,439
Speaker 1: say that there's a chunk of Democrats who think, hey,

1253
01:15:02,040 --> 01:15:04,679
Speaker 1: the lesson to learn from Trump is bullshit, like he does.

1254
01:15:06,320 --> 01:15:10,200
Speaker 2: No. I think, you know, look, I'm very I defend

1255
01:15:10,240 --> 01:15:12,960
Speaker 2: a lot of the things we've done, and I realized

1256
01:15:13,040 --> 01:15:16,439
Speaker 2: things are hard choices. I do think we probably could

1257
01:15:16,479 --> 01:15:22,960
Speaker 2: have done a better job of starting by recognizing people's

1258
01:15:23,840 --> 01:15:28,519
Speaker 2: unhappiness and then try to and then connecting, try to

1259
01:15:28,560 --> 01:15:31,640
Speaker 2: explain why we're doing things to do better. But I

1260
01:15:31,680 --> 01:15:35,840
Speaker 2: will say, Chuck that you know, at the time, there

1261
01:15:35,920 --> 01:15:40,080
Speaker 2: were lots of smart political people who were saying, why

1262
01:15:40,120 --> 01:15:43,160
Speaker 2: aren't you guys bragging about record job growth enough? Why

1263
01:15:43,200 --> 01:15:46,320
Speaker 2: aren't you bragging if the president doesn't do that? So

1264
01:15:47,240 --> 01:15:51,280
Speaker 2: I will say, but I will agree that I think

1265
01:15:51,360 --> 01:15:56,479
Speaker 2: we could have maybe focused more on first, you know, connecting, Hey,

1266
01:15:56,479 --> 01:15:59,920
Speaker 2: we're not happy, prices are up. Explain to people that

1267
01:16:00,160 --> 01:16:03,599
Speaker 2: we're doing everything we can, explain why we want to pass.

1268
01:16:03,960 --> 01:16:08,280
Speaker 2: But start more from the basis of a little bit

1269
01:16:08,280 --> 01:16:11,800
Speaker 2: of Clintonian feel your pain. But I don't think that

1270
01:16:11,880 --> 01:16:16,280
Speaker 2: should be confused with the idea that Joe Biden wasn't

1271
01:16:16,280 --> 01:16:19,479
Speaker 2: out there fighting for a child tax credit which gave

1272
01:16:19,560 --> 01:16:22,839
Speaker 2: people a few thousand dollars more in their pocket, fighting

1273
01:16:22,880 --> 01:16:28,280
Speaker 2: for lower healthcare costs. I think criticisms of like, you know,

1274
01:16:28,360 --> 01:16:31,599
Speaker 2: I think people who want to show their new and

1275
01:16:31,720 --> 01:16:36,080
Speaker 2: change oriented are going to probably pick some holes at

1276
01:16:36,120 --> 01:16:40,920
Speaker 2: Biden alum in the primaries. That's kind of basic politics.

1277
01:16:41,360 --> 01:16:43,760
Speaker 2: But I think in the end people will have a

1278
01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:47,240
Speaker 2: time chance to say what they could do and what

1279
01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:50,960
Speaker 2: they could and the truth was, Joe Biden had the

1280
01:16:51,040 --> 01:16:56,040
Speaker 2: tiniest of margins. So like on a bipartisan infrastructure bill.

1281
01:16:56,080 --> 01:16:58,680
Speaker 1: I mean, imagine what your job would have been like

1282
01:17:01,360 --> 01:17:03,719
Speaker 1: had it been a Republican Senate with a Democratic House,

1283
01:17:05,160 --> 01:17:08,080
Speaker 1: which was the most likely scenario before the Georgia Ummels.

1284
01:17:08,640 --> 01:17:08,720
Speaker 3: No.

1285
01:17:08,840 --> 01:17:10,600
Speaker 2: So we got a lot of good things done. But

1286
01:17:10,720 --> 01:17:13,920
Speaker 2: when those things got done, you couldn't always do them

1287
01:17:14,000 --> 01:17:19,280
Speaker 2: exactly like you want, So you couldn't like necessarily get

1288
01:17:19,320 --> 01:17:22,840
Speaker 2: everything out the door as fast as you wanted or

1289
01:17:22,880 --> 01:17:26,720
Speaker 2: things like that. But you know, again, we've got a

1290
01:17:26,720 --> 01:17:29,280
Speaker 2: lot there's gonna be a lot of primary candidates. They're

1291
01:17:29,320 --> 01:17:31,200
Speaker 2: going to take a lot of shots at each other.

1292
01:17:31,760 --> 01:17:34,960
Speaker 2: I tend to like and know most of the people

1293
01:17:35,200 --> 01:17:38,280
Speaker 2: that people are talking about, So I'm looking at people

1294
01:17:38,360 --> 01:17:41,759
Speaker 2: I basically admire and I'm kind of like sitting back

1295
01:17:41,800 --> 01:17:44,720
Speaker 2: and kind of watching, like I'm Chuck Todd, wanting to

1296
01:17:44,760 --> 01:17:47,200
Speaker 2: see who's good, who's effective.

1297
01:17:46,720 --> 01:17:49,720
Speaker 1: Well, the most likely what's the most likely scenario of

1298
01:17:49,800 --> 01:17:52,880
Speaker 1: one of them? When's the presidency Jean Spurley's going to

1299
01:17:52,920 --> 01:17:53,360
Speaker 1: go work for.

1300
01:17:55,160 --> 01:17:58,720
Speaker 2: I will say that from a family perspective, for me

1301
01:17:58,800 --> 01:18:01,920
Speaker 2: to go out with that would be both you know,

1302
01:18:02,000 --> 01:18:05,479
Speaker 2: from a human perspective, would be arrogant to suggest that

1303
01:18:06,360 --> 01:18:08,559
Speaker 2: you know somebody would want you again, and from a

1304
01:18:08,600 --> 01:18:14,120
Speaker 2: family perspective forecasting, that would probably not do well for me.

1305
01:18:14,960 --> 01:18:19,439
Speaker 2: Right now, we're focused on the upsides of not being

1306
01:18:19,439 --> 01:18:30,720
Speaker 2: in the government, so.

1307
01:18:30,720 --> 01:18:33,280
Speaker 1: Let's talk about where. Because what you're you're one of

1308
01:18:33,320 --> 01:18:37,519
Speaker 1: the few people who understands economists speak and sort of

1309
01:18:37,640 --> 01:18:40,120
Speaker 1: Americans speak, right, which is why I think you've been

1310
01:18:40,160 --> 01:18:43,960
Speaker 1: a popular staffer to be to bring in for presidents

1311
01:18:44,040 --> 01:18:47,200
Speaker 1: because you're not just You're not just thinking like an

1312
01:18:47,200 --> 01:18:50,840
Speaker 1: economist and a data guy, but sort of you're able

1313
01:18:50,840 --> 01:18:57,080
Speaker 1: to fuse it with sort of realistic, realistic policy that

1314
01:18:57,120 --> 01:19:00,240
Speaker 1: you can sell. Right, there's one thing about proposing Paul see,

1315
01:19:00,280 --> 01:19:02,200
Speaker 1: but it's policy you can actually sell to the public.

1316
01:19:03,560 --> 01:19:08,560
Speaker 1: I think the pitchforks are being sharpened. There's definitely distrust

1317
01:19:08,640 --> 01:19:12,920
Speaker 1: and anger at sort of corporate America generally and the

1318
01:19:13,080 --> 01:19:18,000
Speaker 1: and the biggest companies specifically AI. Job displacement's probably gonna

1319
01:19:18,040 --> 01:19:24,640
Speaker 1: fuel this even more. It is is it inevitable that

1320
01:19:24,800 --> 01:19:33,120
Speaker 1: just becomes just some sort of anger driven h political movement,

1321
01:19:33,560 --> 01:19:37,519
Speaker 1: or is there a chance for somebody to, you know,

1322
01:19:37,560 --> 01:19:40,400
Speaker 1: for for this not to end up down that road,

1323
01:19:40,479 --> 01:19:42,599
Speaker 1: Like I think it's we're inevitably going to go there.

1324
01:19:42,600 --> 01:19:45,280
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to have this moment that we end

1325
01:19:45,360 --> 01:19:47,360
Speaker 1: up there. Maybe it's a little bit like the first

1326
01:19:47,360 --> 01:19:49,280
Speaker 1: part of the twentieth century, but there really is sort

1327
01:19:49,280 --> 01:19:53,479
Speaker 1: of almost a revolt against some of these folks here

1328
01:19:53,520 --> 01:19:55,960
Speaker 1: because of the frustrations, and it will be this sort

1329
01:19:56,000 --> 01:20:02,719
Speaker 1: of white collar, blue collar U mix. But maybe I'm wrong,

1330
01:20:03,320 --> 01:20:07,080
Speaker 1: and maybe AI is more like what you know, computers

1331
01:20:07,080 --> 01:20:11,040
Speaker 1: in everyday life turned into increase productivity and all boats.

1332
01:20:10,840 --> 01:20:15,200
Speaker 2: Rows, so you know, I've never been somebody you know

1333
01:20:15,240 --> 01:20:18,240
Speaker 2: who like starts running to a camp, you know, when

1334
01:20:18,240 --> 01:20:22,519
Speaker 2: I see, you know, like with a policy tribe, because

1335
01:20:22,520 --> 01:20:26,599
Speaker 2: I often don't think that it's helpful in finding what's

1336
01:20:26,640 --> 01:20:30,680
Speaker 2: good economic policy or even what's good economic message to

1337
01:20:30,800 --> 01:20:33,000
Speaker 2: think like you have to be in a single camp

1338
01:20:33,160 --> 01:20:36,400
Speaker 2: or the other. So of course I run into people

1339
01:20:36,439 --> 01:20:40,120
Speaker 2: who feel like, oh my god, everything we need does

1340
01:20:40,240 --> 01:20:44,320
Speaker 2: has to sound kind of quote centrist or practical, and

1341
01:20:44,320 --> 01:20:47,400
Speaker 2: then other side who are saying, no, every single thing

1342
01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:50,920
Speaker 2: needs to be populist anger. I don't know that the

1343
01:20:50,960 --> 01:20:55,120
Speaker 2: world looks like that. I would say that to me,

1344
01:20:55,720 --> 01:20:59,000
Speaker 2: You've got to do maybe two things together, which is one,

1345
01:20:59,760 --> 01:21:03,920
Speaker 2: you need to be an optimist about people's lives. You

1346
01:21:03,960 --> 01:21:09,080
Speaker 2: do need to show that you want to see more

1347
01:21:10,400 --> 01:21:14,920
Speaker 2: people meet the American dream, not just tread water, but

1348
01:21:15,080 --> 01:21:18,800
Speaker 2: get ahead and maybe own a house, have a little

1349
01:21:18,840 --> 01:21:23,120
Speaker 2: nest steak for their retirement. You need that optimism and

1350
01:21:23,439 --> 01:21:28,920
Speaker 2: positive view. And I do think that presidents who've done

1351
01:21:29,080 --> 01:21:32,880
Speaker 2: well have done that and so. But on the other hand,

1352
01:21:33,280 --> 01:21:36,960
Speaker 2: I don't think you can hold back when there's clear

1353
01:21:37,120 --> 01:21:42,400
Speaker 2: economic injustice. I don't know that Americans are, you know,

1354
01:21:42,479 --> 01:21:47,000
Speaker 2: have a I'm against, you know, business or corporate America.

1355
01:21:47,600 --> 01:21:49,880
Speaker 2: I think they understand that that's where a lot of

1356
01:21:49,960 --> 01:21:53,160
Speaker 2: jobs and growth come. But they are against when they

1357
01:21:53,200 --> 01:21:57,559
Speaker 2: think the system is rigged, or when a bottom line

1358
01:21:57,600 --> 01:22:04,639
Speaker 2: that affects a chosen few is doing is more important

1359
01:22:04,680 --> 01:22:08,960
Speaker 2: than your lives and your struggle. So I think you

1360
01:22:09,080 --> 01:22:12,000
Speaker 2: need to I think what we need is to have

1361
01:22:12,040 --> 01:22:15,080
Speaker 2: a degree of optimism that we are the ones who

1362
01:22:15,120 --> 01:22:18,080
Speaker 2: can be good for the economy. We are the ones

1363
01:22:18,120 --> 01:22:21,080
Speaker 2: that can help you get ahead. And that doesn't mean

1364
01:22:21,200 --> 01:22:24,960
Speaker 2: being down on everybody who's a major job creator. But

1365
01:22:25,120 --> 01:22:29,960
Speaker 2: on the other hand, people don't believe people who believe

1366
01:22:30,000 --> 01:22:33,480
Speaker 2: in markets and capitalism, which I think is most Americans

1367
01:22:33,880 --> 01:22:37,920
Speaker 2: still believe that the ultimate purpose of what they do

1368
01:22:38,439 --> 01:22:43,040
Speaker 2: is not big bonuses for the CEO or just extracting

1369
01:22:43,160 --> 01:22:47,000
Speaker 2: profits for shareholders. They think, as I've written about in

1370
01:22:48,000 --> 01:22:51,080
Speaker 2: my book in the past and now, they think that

1371
01:22:51,160 --> 01:22:55,760
Speaker 2: the ultimate goal rightly, does it benefit typical people, does

1372
01:22:55,800 --> 01:23:00,759
Speaker 2: it provide economic dignity? And so when they see people

1373
01:23:01,280 --> 01:23:06,360
Speaker 2: doing things that are just about extracting profits from them,

1374
01:23:06,520 --> 01:23:09,680
Speaker 2: when they see a kind of economic policy that is

1375
01:23:09,760 --> 01:23:14,080
Speaker 2: not geared towards creating more jobs, good jobs, jobs with dignity,

1376
01:23:14,479 --> 01:23:17,479
Speaker 2: jobs with respect. Then they're going to be angry. And

1377
01:23:17,560 --> 01:23:20,120
Speaker 2: I think it is okay to tap into that anger.

1378
01:23:20,400 --> 01:23:23,839
Speaker 2: And I think it is okay to say I believe

1379
01:23:23,920 --> 01:23:28,080
Speaker 2: in our American market based system. But the goal of

1380
01:23:28,120 --> 01:23:31,960
Speaker 2: that market based system is ultimately the well being and

1381
01:23:32,120 --> 01:23:36,320
Speaker 2: economic dignity of working families. And if you have a

1382
01:23:36,360 --> 01:23:40,639
Speaker 2: system that is rigged to benefit just the few and

1383
01:23:40,720 --> 01:23:45,240
Speaker 2: not typical American families, then yeah, you should be angry

1384
01:23:45,320 --> 01:23:49,240
Speaker 2: about that. And nobody running for president in the Democratic

1385
01:23:49,320 --> 01:23:54,559
Speaker 2: side should be hesitant in expressing that anger. And I

1386
01:23:54,640 --> 01:23:57,000
Speaker 2: will just I'll take a second just to start on

1387
01:23:57,040 --> 01:23:59,599
Speaker 2: the AI if you want. But it's also a good

1388
01:23:59,640 --> 01:24:02,640
Speaker 2: exams ample of that, you know. I mean, if you

1389
01:24:02,720 --> 01:24:05,800
Speaker 2: listen to people now, you might think, if you were

1390
01:24:05,800 --> 01:24:08,439
Speaker 2: listening to the White House, that will AI is just

1391
01:24:08,520 --> 01:24:11,400
Speaker 2: going to happen, and maybe it's going to hurt a

1392
01:24:11,400 --> 01:24:16,799
Speaker 2: lot of jobs, and we should preempt states from trying

1393
01:24:16,840 --> 01:24:19,400
Speaker 2: to regulate it in any way, or make sure people

1394
01:24:19,439 --> 01:24:23,479
Speaker 2: have protections of privacy or against abusive surveillance, or to

1395
01:24:23,520 --> 01:24:27,479
Speaker 2: make sure that we're dealing with job dislocation. And the

1396
01:24:27,560 --> 01:24:30,200
Speaker 2: response comes by no, no, no, we have to rush, rush,

1397
01:24:30,280 --> 01:24:34,400
Speaker 2: rush to get more GDP and greater growth, and I

1398
01:24:34,400 --> 01:24:38,560
Speaker 2: think they will lose people because people will ask the

1399
01:24:38,640 --> 01:24:42,639
Speaker 2: question I've said, but what's the ultimate point if why

1400
01:24:42,640 --> 01:24:45,719
Speaker 2: would we have a policy that's not good for jobs,

1401
01:24:45,760 --> 01:24:50,760
Speaker 2: it's not good for the typical family. And I think

1402
01:24:50,800 --> 01:24:54,040
Speaker 2: that it's not maybe the front and center issue now,

1403
01:24:54,400 --> 01:24:56,240
Speaker 2: but I think it will be, and I think it

1404
01:24:56,240 --> 01:24:59,160
Speaker 2: will be part of that bigger picture, which is what

1405
01:24:59,280 --> 01:25:02,960
Speaker 2: is the ultimate goal of our economy. And if people

1406
01:25:03,040 --> 01:25:06,679
Speaker 2: think it's just to have some enormous wealth and five

1407
01:25:06,760 --> 01:25:11,120
Speaker 2: or six AI companies and you know, we'll just deal

1408
01:25:11,240 --> 01:25:16,080
Speaker 2: with the effect on job loss and income loss as

1409
01:25:16,120 --> 01:25:18,479
Speaker 2: an after effect. People are going to be angry. They're

1410
01:25:18,520 --> 01:25:21,840
Speaker 2: going to be rightly angry. And I think people going

1411
01:25:21,880 --> 01:25:25,640
Speaker 2: in twenty eight will do better not to be like

1412
01:25:26,600 --> 01:25:29,240
Speaker 2: they're head in the sand about AI or the good

1413
01:25:29,280 --> 01:25:31,960
Speaker 2: things that could do. But people who are going to say,

1414
01:25:31,960 --> 01:25:36,400
Speaker 2: front and center, my goal is you your job, whether

1415
01:25:36,439 --> 01:25:39,000
Speaker 2: your children can be as well off as you are.

1416
01:25:39,200 --> 01:25:44,679
Speaker 2: And when I'm thinking about AI, I'm thinking that about

1417
01:25:44,680 --> 01:25:49,439
Speaker 2: how we shape it to serve average people. Technology is

1418
01:25:49,520 --> 01:25:53,960
Speaker 2: not destiny. Democracy determines our destiny.

1419
01:25:55,120 --> 01:25:57,519
Speaker 1: So some of the proposals that are out there about

1420
01:25:57,560 --> 01:26:01,440
Speaker 1: AI job displacement remind me if some of the ideas

1421
01:26:01,560 --> 01:26:06,440
Speaker 1: that you guys attempted to implement during sort of the

1422
01:26:06,439 --> 01:26:08,720
Speaker 1: the era of the nineties, the free trade era of

1423
01:26:08,760 --> 01:26:11,920
Speaker 1: the nineties, right, And I remember one of the central

1424
01:26:11,960 --> 01:26:15,839
Speaker 1: promises on NAFTA was, you know, when when if factories

1425
01:26:15,880 --> 01:26:17,720
Speaker 1: went away, there'd be there was always you know, there

1426
01:26:17,760 --> 01:26:21,200
Speaker 1: was going to be money there for retraining and job displacement.

1427
01:26:21,560 --> 01:26:24,000
Speaker 1: And the money was there, and there was retraining. But

1428
01:26:24,040 --> 01:26:27,320
Speaker 1: it turned out that didn't take right. There were weren't

1429
01:26:27,600 --> 01:26:29,720
Speaker 1: There weren't as many people interested in some of the

1430
01:26:29,760 --> 01:26:34,120
Speaker 1: retraining opportunities that were offered. I don't And I'm curious

1431
01:26:34,120 --> 01:26:36,639
Speaker 1: what lessons you take away from that as you think

1432
01:26:36,680 --> 01:26:40,720
Speaker 1: about developing Frank, what I assume will potentially be a

1433
01:26:40,760 --> 01:26:44,720
Speaker 1: policy that a next a new president may may be

1434
01:26:44,840 --> 01:26:48,640
Speaker 1: influenced by if sort of how to manage this displacement.

1435
01:26:48,760 --> 01:26:52,240
Speaker 1: The displacement's going to happen. And you know, I'm I'm

1436
01:26:52,360 --> 01:26:55,960
Speaker 1: I am you know, I'm a capitalist. You know, I

1437
01:26:55,960 --> 01:26:57,920
Speaker 1: think we just want capitalism with a little bit of

1438
01:26:57,920 --> 01:27:02,040
Speaker 1: guardrails and technology. Right. This has been true of the

1439
01:27:02,080 --> 01:27:04,760
Speaker 1: media business and it's true of really anything. Right, you

1440
01:27:04,800 --> 01:27:09,200
Speaker 1: get a new technology, there's immediately fragmentation, maybe you get

1441
01:27:09,240 --> 01:27:12,320
Speaker 1: a thousand startups, and then eventually you get consolidation, and

1442
01:27:12,360 --> 01:27:14,599
Speaker 1: then a new technology comes and the cycle can begin

1443
01:27:14,640 --> 01:27:18,000
Speaker 1: all over again. Globalization in some ways right the idea

1444
01:27:18,040 --> 01:27:21,479
Speaker 1: of free trade, which of course the upside was there's

1445
01:27:21,520 --> 01:27:24,160
Speaker 1: not a fruit you can't get any any month of

1446
01:27:24,200 --> 01:27:27,840
Speaker 1: the year in America now, which was not true when

1447
01:27:27,840 --> 01:27:29,559
Speaker 1: you and I were growing up. It was not true

1448
01:27:29,680 --> 01:27:32,040
Speaker 1: in the eighties and nineties. But that's what free trade

1449
01:27:32,080 --> 01:27:34,960
Speaker 1: has done right in many ways. And that's just as

1450
01:27:35,160 --> 01:27:37,559
Speaker 1: I always use I like to use produce because it's

1451
01:27:37,560 --> 01:27:40,840
Speaker 1: the simplest example of what free trade has meant. Like

1452
01:27:41,439 --> 01:27:44,439
Speaker 1: you realize that, you know, you get to eat certain

1453
01:27:44,479 --> 01:27:47,360
Speaker 1: fruits year round now and back in the day you couldn't.

1454
01:27:48,600 --> 01:27:53,600
Speaker 1: But there was certainly right the arguably the seeds of

1455
01:27:53,680 --> 01:27:58,760
Speaker 1: the Trump victories of sixteen and twenty four were planted

1456
01:27:59,520 --> 01:28:03,800
Speaker 1: with globalization and free trade movement of the nineties. So

1457
01:28:05,479 --> 01:28:08,800
Speaker 1: what policies do you now wish where it implemented better

1458
01:28:08,880 --> 01:28:12,920
Speaker 1: than and what parallels do you see as you think

1459
01:28:12,960 --> 01:28:17,640
Speaker 1: about what AI job displacement and what benefits are necessary

1460
01:28:18,200 --> 01:28:19,120
Speaker 1: to ease that pain.

1461
01:28:19,640 --> 01:28:22,560
Speaker 2: So I guess I would disagree with one of your premises,

1462
01:28:22,680 --> 01:28:23,439
Speaker 2: which was.

1463
01:28:23,479 --> 01:28:25,519
Speaker 1: That I threw a lot in there. So the fact

1464
01:28:25,520 --> 01:28:27,920
Speaker 1: that you're only disagree with one premise maybe is a

1465
01:28:27,920 --> 01:28:28,559
Speaker 1: small victory.

1466
01:28:29,520 --> 01:28:33,120
Speaker 2: So, first of all, I think the core issue when

1467
01:28:33,160 --> 01:28:36,559
Speaker 2: you look back on kind of the Clinton agenda was

1468
01:28:36,680 --> 01:28:41,160
Speaker 2: that Bill Clinton came in with the view that, you know,

1469
01:28:41,240 --> 01:28:44,479
Speaker 2: there was going to be greater global integration and that

1470
01:28:44,640 --> 01:28:48,759
Speaker 2: we really needed a robust response and so.

1471
01:28:49,240 --> 01:28:50,920
Speaker 1: And by the way, you guys, you know, a huge

1472
01:28:50,920 --> 01:28:53,000
Speaker 1: opportunity in front of you, right, we basically the end

1473
01:28:53,040 --> 01:28:57,200
Speaker 1: of the Cold War was this was the peace dividend.

1474
01:28:57,360 --> 01:29:00,240
Speaker 2: No, And I think that a lot of what he

1475
01:29:00,280 --> 01:29:02,800
Speaker 2: was trying to do was integrate more of the world

1476
01:29:02,880 --> 01:29:05,080
Speaker 2: to avoid some of the issues we're having now with

1477
01:29:05,200 --> 01:29:08,920
Speaker 2: Russia and China. So there was a big foreign policy element.

1478
01:29:09,160 --> 01:29:13,439
Speaker 2: But the vision was that you would have universal healthcare,

1479
01:29:13,960 --> 01:29:18,640
Speaker 2: there would be a major universal training program for anybody

1480
01:29:18,680 --> 01:29:22,320
Speaker 2: who lost a job for any reason, and then you

1481
01:29:22,360 --> 01:29:27,120
Speaker 2: would also have significant place based investment in places. And

1482
01:29:27,160 --> 01:29:31,160
Speaker 2: I think what happened with President Clinton was they didn't

1483
01:29:31,200 --> 01:29:34,120
Speaker 2: get that we didn't get healthcare, and then we didn't

1484
01:29:34,120 --> 01:29:38,360
Speaker 2: even get to propose our universal training proposal because we

1485
01:29:38,479 --> 01:29:44,320
Speaker 2: lost the Congress for all six years both houses. So

1486
01:29:44,840 --> 01:29:48,280
Speaker 2: I don't think that we ever got to test out

1487
01:29:48,760 --> 01:29:53,400
Speaker 2: what that We ever got to test out what truly

1488
01:29:53,520 --> 01:29:57,920
Speaker 2: having a robust safety net would be like, I don't

1489
01:29:57,960 --> 01:30:00,880
Speaker 2: think it ever got to be put in place in

1490
01:30:00,960 --> 01:30:05,320
Speaker 2: the way that it might have if Democrats had controlled

1491
01:30:05,320 --> 01:30:08,479
Speaker 2: both houses for four or six years. So one, I

1492
01:30:08,520 --> 01:30:11,840
Speaker 2: don't think we ever tested. Two, which is very relevant

1493
01:30:12,080 --> 01:30:16,080
Speaker 2: is that globalization turned out to be much more dramatic

1494
01:30:16,320 --> 01:30:20,640
Speaker 2: than anybody would have thought at the times, and then

1495
01:30:20,680 --> 01:30:24,080
Speaker 2: you had eight years of a Republican administration that wasn't

1496
01:30:24,160 --> 01:30:29,880
Speaker 2: really willing to adjust to that or do anything. So

1497
01:30:31,560 --> 01:30:35,519
Speaker 2: I guess i'd say number one, we still have just

1498
01:30:35,760 --> 01:30:39,560
Speaker 2: huge holes in what I think of as an economic

1499
01:30:39,600 --> 01:30:43,000
Speaker 2: dignity net of making sure people are working or doing

1500
01:30:43,040 --> 01:30:46,360
Speaker 2: their best or living lives of economic dignity even in

1501
01:30:46,479 --> 01:30:50,680
Speaker 2: moments of disruption. And I think what globalization showed is

1502
01:30:50,720 --> 01:30:54,599
Speaker 2: that even though there were lots of benefits to the

1503
01:30:54,640 --> 01:30:58,800
Speaker 2: Internet era, and look, it wasn't just trade agreements, it

1504
01:30:59,000 --> 01:31:02,200
Speaker 2: was the Internet, it was globalization. It was just a

1505
01:31:02,280 --> 01:31:06,160
Speaker 2: smaller world even though there were benefits to that. You

1506
01:31:06,320 --> 01:31:11,080
Speaker 2: can't have an economy where you say, hey, for sixty

1507
01:31:11,320 --> 01:31:14,599
Speaker 2: or seventy percent of you, this is nice because you're

1508
01:31:14,640 --> 01:31:18,040
Speaker 2: getting lower prices and mode choices. But there's like a

1509
01:31:18,080 --> 01:31:21,240
Speaker 2: portion of you that are watching your community spiral down.

1510
01:31:21,560 --> 01:31:24,559
Speaker 2: You're losing your hopes, your dreams, You're watching your father

1511
01:31:24,720 --> 01:31:28,000
Speaker 2: or grandfather become an alcoholic. And so one of the

1512
01:31:28,040 --> 01:31:31,320
Speaker 2: things that I talk about with economic dignity is you

1513
01:31:31,400 --> 01:31:36,160
Speaker 2: have got to have policies that aren't just good for

1514
01:31:36,280 --> 01:31:40,559
Speaker 2: GDP or don't just lower prices for some people. Generally,

1515
01:31:40,960 --> 01:31:44,680
Speaker 2: you have to have policies where everybody feels they're not

1516
01:31:44,800 --> 01:31:48,640
Speaker 2: being left behind. And you know, I wouldn't put as

1517
01:31:48,720 --> 01:31:52,240
Speaker 2: much blame on anything Bill Clinton did, but I would

1518
01:31:52,320 --> 01:31:58,759
Speaker 2: say that the accumulation of policies over twenty thirty years

1519
01:31:59,240 --> 01:32:03,200
Speaker 2: did not put in place the type of job creation

1520
01:32:03,400 --> 01:32:08,880
Speaker 2: focused protections, checks on abuse of corporate power that were

1521
01:32:09,000 --> 01:32:12,880
Speaker 2: necessary to make sure everyone has economic dignity for all.

1522
01:32:13,200 --> 01:32:17,640
Speaker 2: So where AI becomes relevant is that globalization was a

1523
01:32:17,720 --> 01:32:22,320
Speaker 2: bigger shock than we might than people might have known,

1524
01:32:22,880 --> 01:32:28,120
Speaker 2: and the holes in our safety net or our insurance

1525
01:32:28,120 --> 01:32:32,280
Speaker 2: of economic dignity for all became more painful. I think

1526
01:32:32,360 --> 01:32:35,080
Speaker 2: that's how you should look at AI. I don't think

1527
01:32:35,080 --> 01:32:38,960
Speaker 2: AI is just another technology. I think AI is likely

1528
01:32:39,040 --> 01:32:42,519
Speaker 2: to have a greater impact on job disruption and a

1529
01:32:42,560 --> 01:32:45,799
Speaker 2: greater impact on maybe even the reduction of the amount

1530
01:32:45,840 --> 01:32:50,320
Speaker 2: of jobs in the private sector than we've seen before.

1531
01:32:50,680 --> 01:32:53,920
Speaker 2: And so now is the time to me not to

1532
01:32:54,000 --> 01:32:56,439
Speaker 2: sit back and watch and just say, oh my god,

1533
01:32:56,560 --> 01:32:59,799
Speaker 2: tens of millions of jobs are being lost or react

1534
01:32:59,840 --> 01:33:03,719
Speaker 2: by just having a UBI program that writes checks to people.

1535
01:33:04,120 --> 01:33:08,639
Speaker 2: Now is the time to start shaping, to make shaping

1536
01:33:08,680 --> 01:33:11,400
Speaker 2: our economy, and to me, I talked about three things

1537
01:33:11,439 --> 01:33:15,479
Speaker 2: and what I wrote as an economic dignity compact for AI. One,

1538
01:33:15,960 --> 01:33:20,360
Speaker 2: let's create more dignified jobs where we know we need more,

1539
01:33:20,640 --> 01:33:24,519
Speaker 2: which are helping families with disability, helping people come out

1540
01:33:24,720 --> 01:33:28,080
Speaker 2: of prison, helping people with addiction, helping people coach more

1541
01:33:28,080 --> 01:33:32,080
Speaker 2: people on their healthcare. There may be twenty million missing

1542
01:33:32,240 --> 01:33:37,040
Speaker 2: jobs there that could employ people, have a tighter labor market,

1543
01:33:37,160 --> 01:33:40,759
Speaker 2: and deal with a lot of dislocation. That's number one.

1544
01:33:40,840 --> 01:33:43,439
Speaker 2: We have the power to do that. We also have

1545
01:33:43,479 --> 01:33:47,520
Speaker 2: the power to create tax incentives and subsidies that encourage

1546
01:33:47,520 --> 01:33:51,720
Speaker 2: a company to augment use AI to augment jobs as

1547
01:33:51,760 --> 01:33:56,680
Speaker 2: opposed to displaced jobs or to redeploy people. We control

1548
01:33:56,800 --> 01:34:00,840
Speaker 2: our economic policy. We should be doing that now. Well. Secondly,

1549
01:34:00,960 --> 01:34:03,559
Speaker 2: going to the point I talked about, let's create an

1550
01:34:03,600 --> 01:34:07,519
Speaker 2: economic dignity floor for everyone, so that if there is

1551
01:34:07,560 --> 01:34:11,120
Speaker 2: a worse disruption than we thought, unlike what happened in

1552
01:34:11,120 --> 01:34:14,920
Speaker 2: communities and globalization, now we're going to have programs that

1553
01:34:15,000 --> 01:34:18,640
Speaker 2: focus on jobs, on helping people find new jobs, of

1554
01:34:18,720 --> 01:34:22,120
Speaker 2: making sure you still have health insurance. And then the

1555
01:34:22,160 --> 01:34:24,240
Speaker 2: third issue, which is going to be the toughest than

1556
01:34:24,240 --> 01:34:27,880
Speaker 2: the one that hits us, is what are those overall

1557
01:34:28,280 --> 01:34:32,040
Speaker 2: policies that help people move to the next job. I

1558
01:34:32,200 --> 01:34:34,840
Speaker 2: just believe that we are a country where we care

1559
01:34:34,880 --> 01:34:38,559
Speaker 2: about work, we care about contribution, we care about purpose

1560
01:34:38,600 --> 01:34:41,480
Speaker 2: and potential. And what I don't like is that everybody's

1561
01:34:41,560 --> 01:34:44,160
Speaker 2: kind of you know, you've got a White House that's

1562
01:34:44,200 --> 01:34:47,439
Speaker 2: just saying go as fast as you can and geez

1563
01:34:47,439 --> 01:34:51,680
Speaker 2: if it causes lots of disruption, kind of too bad.

1564
01:34:51,920 --> 01:34:55,839
Speaker 2: That that can't be our policy. Our policy going forward

1565
01:34:55,920 --> 01:35:00,200
Speaker 2: must be AI is going to happen. You can't stop

1566
01:35:00,200 --> 01:35:04,120
Speaker 2: at all, but you can have policies that shape to

1567
01:35:04,240 --> 01:35:07,640
Speaker 2: make sure that it is serving the American people. What

1568
01:35:07,840 --> 01:35:11,559
Speaker 2: is the point of an economy having high growth and

1569
01:35:11,680 --> 01:35:16,719
Speaker 2: high productivity growth if it creates unhappiness for a large

1570
01:35:16,800 --> 01:35:20,320
Speaker 2: portion of the economy. That's the focus I want to

1571
01:35:20,320 --> 01:35:23,960
Speaker 2: do in my Economic Dignity lab is to focus on

1572
01:35:24,240 --> 01:35:27,320
Speaker 2: our goal. What is our ultimate goal? Every day? It's

1573
01:35:27,360 --> 01:35:31,400
Speaker 2: not higher GDP and productivity growth that makes people unhappy.

1574
01:35:31,680 --> 01:35:36,400
Speaker 2: It's higher growth and productivity growth that leads to more opportunity,

1575
01:35:36,439 --> 01:35:40,560
Speaker 2: more dignity, more upward mobility for more Americans.

1576
01:35:40,920 --> 01:35:42,720
Speaker 1: You know, Shared Brown's going to love the fact that

1577
01:35:42,760 --> 01:35:45,240
Speaker 1: you use the word dignity so much. The dignity of

1578
01:35:45,320 --> 01:35:46,920
Speaker 1: work myself.

1579
01:35:48,439 --> 01:35:52,240
Speaker 2: I wrote the book twenty twenty. The title is Economic Dignity.

1580
01:35:52,320 --> 01:35:55,720
Speaker 2: So I've got here. It is right here, copyrighting the

1581
01:35:55,760 --> 01:35:56,360
Speaker 2: word dignity.

1582
01:35:56,479 --> 01:36:10,240
Speaker 1: Take that, take that, share it, h Let me get

1583
01:36:10,280 --> 01:36:16,320
Speaker 1: you out of here on this. When is a company

1584
01:36:17,080 --> 01:36:19,680
Speaker 1: too big to regulate? And when is when do you

1585
01:36:19,760 --> 01:36:22,599
Speaker 1: fear that a company becomes bigger than a nation state?

1586
01:36:23,160 --> 01:36:25,880
Speaker 1: And what happens there? I mean, like, I used to

1587
01:36:25,880 --> 01:36:28,920
Speaker 1: think of this as sort of perverted Bond James Bond

1588
01:36:29,439 --> 01:36:33,800
Speaker 1: plot lines, and but the fact of the matter is

1589
01:36:33,920 --> 01:36:40,400
Speaker 1: these huge companies are bigger than most nation states, and

1590
01:36:40,479 --> 01:36:46,640
Speaker 1: what does that mean right that they're there? That that's

1591
01:36:46,360 --> 01:36:51,760
Speaker 1: it is different than what we've had, And does our

1592
01:36:51,800 --> 01:36:54,479
Speaker 1: government of a responsibility from preventing that or do you

1593
01:36:54,520 --> 01:36:57,400
Speaker 1: let capitalism be capitalism?

1594
01:36:57,439 --> 01:36:59,679
Speaker 2: Well again, I think it goes back to the tests

1595
01:36:59,720 --> 01:37:06,839
Speaker 2: that we have before. The purpose of structuring our economy

1596
01:37:07,080 --> 01:37:12,519
Speaker 2: is not for the companies themselves. It's not for the

1597
01:37:12,560 --> 01:37:17,839
Speaker 2: CEOs themselves. It's to have an economy that benefits people's

1598
01:37:17,880 --> 01:37:24,560
Speaker 2: lives and gives people more opportunity. So when companies start,

1599
01:37:24,800 --> 01:37:30,600
Speaker 2: when companies get so large or integrated that they I

1600
01:37:30,600 --> 01:37:32,679
Speaker 2: think there's two things you have to worry about. One

1601
01:37:32,720 --> 01:37:36,400
Speaker 2: when you don't have true competition, you know, I mean

1602
01:37:36,960 --> 01:37:41,799
Speaker 2: Adam Smith was not writing about a market economy where

1603
01:37:41,880 --> 01:37:45,719
Speaker 2: you know, for big AI or big tech companies controlled everything.

1604
01:37:45,800 --> 01:37:49,600
Speaker 2: It was about how to have competition and why competition

1605
01:37:50,240 --> 01:37:55,160
Speaker 2: would through some form of process he said invisible hand,

1606
01:37:55,200 --> 01:37:59,760
Speaker 2: I'll say a little more notable hand. Make sure that

1607
01:37:59,800 --> 01:38:04,080
Speaker 2: it's benefiting everybody. So one when is that working? The

1608
01:38:04,160 --> 01:38:06,760
Speaker 2: other way? Now? I know a lot of people aren't

1609
01:38:06,760 --> 01:38:10,880
Speaker 2: always happy with everything Lena Khan did, but I'm I'm

1610
01:38:11,000 --> 01:38:13,200
Speaker 2: I'm more of a fan of hers, and I think

1611
01:38:13,280 --> 01:38:16,360
Speaker 2: that what she did and looking at big Tech and Amazon,

1612
01:38:16,920 --> 01:38:20,920
Speaker 2: was to look and say, in reality, are these large

1613
01:38:20,960 --> 01:38:26,360
Speaker 2: companies suppressing competition and hurting people or are they actually

1614
01:38:26,439 --> 01:38:28,960
Speaker 2: encouraging it? So you should have that test. And then

1615
01:38:29,000 --> 01:38:32,759
Speaker 2: the second test is a democracy test. If the size

1616
01:38:32,840 --> 01:38:39,120
Speaker 2: and power of companies mean that they are disproportionately determining

1617
01:38:39,160 --> 01:38:44,000
Speaker 2: our policies as opposed to our democratic processes based on

1618
01:38:44,040 --> 01:38:48,160
Speaker 2: what's best for people, then I think that's the problem.

1619
01:38:48,400 --> 01:38:50,240
Speaker 2: So for me, it's not you know you've been on

1620
01:38:51,720 --> 01:38:55,519
Speaker 2: It's not just the size, but what is the impact?

1621
01:38:55,600 --> 01:38:56,479
Speaker 2: And I think the.

1622
01:38:56,439 --> 01:38:58,439
Speaker 1: Reason how do you say that? I would say, arguably,

1623
01:38:58,520 --> 01:39:02,400
Speaker 1: right now, the between there are two industries that are

1624
01:39:02,479 --> 01:39:05,360
Speaker 1: over indexed in Washington and they seem to get whatever

1625
01:39:05,400 --> 01:39:07,800
Speaker 1: they want because of how much campaign money they give,

1626
01:39:08,280 --> 01:39:10,839
Speaker 1: and that is the Crypto and AI.

1627
01:39:11,640 --> 01:39:15,000
Speaker 2: Well, I think there's a lot to be said for that.

1628
01:39:15,240 --> 01:39:18,719
Speaker 2: And I think, look, I think there's always been big

1629
01:39:18,800 --> 01:39:25,400
Speaker 2: companies who use political contributions and lobbying power to get

1630
01:39:25,439 --> 01:39:29,200
Speaker 2: what they want at the benefit at the expense of

1631
01:39:29,280 --> 01:39:31,800
Speaker 2: what might be the common good, and that is a

1632
01:39:31,840 --> 01:39:36,280
Speaker 2: real problem. I think what's a little more concerning on

1633
01:39:36,400 --> 01:39:40,479
Speaker 2: the AI front, though, is the idea that there could

1634
01:39:40,520 --> 01:39:45,720
Speaker 2: be four or five or six companies that actually are

1635
01:39:46,000 --> 01:39:51,400
Speaker 2: almost determining the structure of the economy, not just benefiting

1636
01:39:51,960 --> 01:39:55,240
Speaker 2: their company at the expense of some higher prices for

1637
01:39:55,360 --> 01:40:00,360
Speaker 2: other people, which is itself very problematic, but where it

1638
01:40:00,400 --> 01:40:04,599
Speaker 2: looks like they're determining policy. And I do see sometimes

1639
01:40:04,640 --> 01:40:07,120
Speaker 2: when I look at the White House, you know, I

1640
01:40:07,200 --> 01:40:13,400
Speaker 2: do wonder our six or seven companies contributing whispering in

1641
01:40:13,439 --> 01:40:17,559
Speaker 2: the ear? Are you seeing companies, you know, whether it's

1642
01:40:17,600 --> 01:40:24,040
Speaker 2: crypto or AI or other places, actually part of deals

1643
01:40:24,040 --> 01:40:29,560
Speaker 2: that are actually benefiting in a more corrupt way individuals

1644
01:40:29,600 --> 01:40:33,760
Speaker 2: associated with the administration. That is very concerning. Now, look,

1645
01:40:33,920 --> 01:40:37,280
Speaker 2: some of the heads of these big AI companies have

1646
01:40:37,560 --> 01:40:40,800
Speaker 2: notably gone out and said, we need to think about

1647
01:40:40,880 --> 01:40:44,880
Speaker 2: what's best for the country. But the fact is that

1648
01:40:44,920 --> 01:40:48,080
Speaker 2: when I still look at what's happening every day, it

1649
01:40:48,160 --> 01:40:54,240
Speaker 2: looks like rush, fast, hygienp growth, high wealth, get things

1650
01:40:54,240 --> 01:40:58,880
Speaker 2: built as quickly as possible, and those discussions about what's

1651
01:40:58,880 --> 01:41:02,600
Speaker 2: best for jobs or people or the economic dignity of

1652
01:41:02,640 --> 01:41:05,720
Speaker 2: people is being lost. And my prediction is going to

1653
01:41:05,720 --> 01:41:09,240
Speaker 2: what you said at the beginning is if people don't

1654
01:41:09,280 --> 01:41:13,320
Speaker 2: start talking about how to shape AI so that it

1655
01:41:13,439 --> 01:41:18,799
Speaker 2: is benefiting everyone, they're going to get a backlash that

1656
01:41:18,800 --> 01:41:23,560
Speaker 2: that might be even harsher than is desired.

1657
01:41:23,640 --> 01:41:26,479
Speaker 4: So we never do prevent medicine very well, so it's

1658
01:41:26,520 --> 01:41:31,280
Speaker 4: benefiting everyone, and not have this perception that the White

1659
01:41:31,320 --> 01:41:34,559
Speaker 4: House listens to five or six major companies and they

1660
01:41:34,880 --> 01:41:39,439
Speaker 4: not the American people are determining what the what the

1661
01:41:39,479 --> 01:41:41,280
Speaker 4: path of our economic future will be.

1662
01:41:42,520 --> 01:41:45,120
Speaker 1: Was take me back to your time in the Biden

1663
01:41:45,160 --> 01:41:48,519
Speaker 1: White House when these AI companies were looking for more

1664
01:41:48,560 --> 01:41:54,679
Speaker 1: government assistance to to accelerate what they were doing. Did

1665
01:41:54,720 --> 01:41:58,360
Speaker 1: you feel like they had a gun to the head, like, well,

1666
01:41:58,439 --> 01:41:59,960
Speaker 1: you know, you either help us out here we're going

1667
01:42:00,040 --> 01:42:02,320
Speaker 1: with the other guys, or you know, I can't.

1668
01:42:02,880 --> 01:42:05,000
Speaker 2: You know, at this time of that life, I wasn't

1669
01:42:05,040 --> 01:42:07,840
Speaker 2: the National Economic consol Director, so I was running the

1670
01:42:07,880 --> 01:42:09,000
Speaker 2: American Rescue.

1671
01:42:09,040 --> 01:42:10,560
Speaker 1: You didn't really have a good you didn't have a

1672
01:42:10,600 --> 01:42:12,840
Speaker 1: good window into that. With the air I.

1673
01:42:12,800 --> 01:42:16,280
Speaker 2: Didn't see as much. But I never had the feeling. No,

1674
01:42:16,520 --> 01:42:20,880
Speaker 2: I never had that that feeling. And to be quite honest,

1675
01:42:21,240 --> 01:42:25,040
Speaker 2: I think in some ways the Trump White House has

1676
01:42:25,120 --> 01:42:28,599
Speaker 2: invited that, you know, I think I don't think that

1677
01:42:28,640 --> 01:42:32,880
Speaker 2: the AI companies would feel like, oh my, if you

1678
01:42:32,920 --> 01:42:36,479
Speaker 2: didn't do exactly what Joe Biden wanted, he was going

1679
01:42:36,560 --> 01:42:39,400
Speaker 2: to go out and punish you, or single you out,

1680
01:42:39,640 --> 01:42:43,680
Speaker 2: or call in the Justice Department, the criminal part of

1681
01:42:43,720 --> 01:42:48,880
Speaker 2: the Justice Department on you. I think that, you know,

1682
01:42:48,920 --> 01:42:52,240
Speaker 2: I think what you've seen more recently is really the

1683
01:42:52,280 --> 01:42:55,559
Speaker 2: most unattractive thing I think I've seen in my political life,

1684
01:42:55,920 --> 01:42:59,360
Speaker 2: which is that the most well off people and the

1685
01:42:59,400 --> 01:43:04,639
Speaker 2: most well off companies are the first ones to take

1686
01:43:04,680 --> 01:43:10,040
Speaker 2: a knee and to uh and to do whatever this

1687
01:43:10,120 --> 01:43:14,120
Speaker 2: administration wants. So as much as I agree that we

1688
01:43:14,320 --> 01:43:18,559
Speaker 2: need to be concerned about the lobbying and political power

1689
01:43:19,120 --> 01:43:23,320
Speaker 2: of major companies and are determining the path on AI,

1690
01:43:23,960 --> 01:43:27,160
Speaker 2: in this situation, it's a little bit like the White

1691
01:43:27,160 --> 01:43:31,680
Speaker 2: House kind of invited it. You know, a little bit

1692
01:43:31,760 --> 01:43:33,840
Speaker 2: of give money.

1693
01:43:33,920 --> 01:43:36,320
Speaker 1: As I said, you know, he's poker play.

1694
01:43:36,280 --> 01:43:38,120
Speaker 2: And you'll have influence and if.

1695
01:43:38,000 --> 01:43:41,240
Speaker 1: Not everybody knows, everybody knows how it works. You write

1696
01:43:41,240 --> 01:43:43,200
Speaker 1: a big enough check to the right entity, you're going

1697
01:43:43,280 --> 01:43:43,840
Speaker 1: to get a meeting.

1698
01:43:44,320 --> 01:43:46,559
Speaker 2: So I just don't think you would have seen that

1699
01:43:46,680 --> 01:43:50,360
Speaker 2: kind of behavior, you know, towards the Biden administration, because

1700
01:43:50,400 --> 01:43:52,680
Speaker 2: one it wouldn't have been tolerated, but two, on the

1701
01:43:52,720 --> 01:43:58,840
Speaker 2: other hand, we wouldn't have been out there telling American companies, uh,

1702
01:43:59,320 --> 01:44:04,120
Speaker 2: you know, do do as we say, or American universities

1703
01:44:04,240 --> 01:44:07,080
Speaker 2: or American law firms that you have to get in

1704
01:44:07,200 --> 01:44:10,040
Speaker 2: line or there's going to be consequences. They may not

1705
01:44:10,120 --> 01:44:13,599
Speaker 2: have liked our climate policy, they may have disagreed with

1706
01:44:13,640 --> 01:44:17,760
Speaker 2: some anti trust policy, but the notion of you contribute

1707
01:44:17,800 --> 01:44:21,599
Speaker 2: and get in line or you will face consequences was

1708
01:44:21,760 --> 01:44:25,760
Speaker 2: just not part of the bid. No Harris administration.

1709
01:44:26,320 --> 01:44:27,559
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna get you out of here on

1710
01:44:27,680 --> 01:44:29,519
Speaker 1: what I think is the toughest question I'm gonna ask you,

1711
01:44:31,200 --> 01:44:35,040
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh. Good feelings are bad feelings when you think

1712
01:44:35,040 --> 01:44:36,280
Speaker 1: about Michigan football.

1713
01:44:37,360 --> 01:44:41,120
Speaker 2: Good feelings, You know, you look.

1714
01:44:41,000 --> 01:44:43,680
Speaker 1: At this situation because you know, are you do you

1715
01:44:43,720 --> 01:44:47,439
Speaker 1: wish he were still there? Or do you feel like, Nope,

1716
01:44:47,439 --> 01:44:49,000
Speaker 1: we got our title and I'm glad he left.

1717
01:44:49,960 --> 01:44:53,080
Speaker 2: I think that for a lot of reasons it made

1718
01:44:53,120 --> 01:44:57,000
Speaker 2: sense for him to go. But look, I've been just

1719
01:44:57,360 --> 01:45:02,240
Speaker 2: incredible Michigan football, Michigan bass ball, Detroit Lions, Detroit Tigers,

1720
01:45:02,240 --> 01:45:05,639
Speaker 2: Detroit Pistons fan for six nice runners.

1721
01:45:06,360 --> 01:45:08,519
Speaker 1: It's finally coming together six seven.

1722
01:45:08,760 --> 01:45:12,280
Speaker 2: So I've never had a football team in the I've

1723
01:45:12,320 --> 01:45:15,960
Speaker 2: never had the Lions in the Super Bowl, the Tigers.

1724
01:45:16,000 --> 01:45:18,519
Speaker 2: We've had two World Series in my life. So let's

1725
01:45:18,560 --> 01:45:23,000
Speaker 2: just say I'm not I'm more like the AI startup

1726
01:45:23,080 --> 01:45:26,639
Speaker 2: than Navidia. You know, Navidia is like the Patriot fans.

1727
01:45:26,680 --> 01:45:30,800
Speaker 2: They have so much, they have so much. But I

1728
01:45:30,880 --> 01:45:36,680
Speaker 2: will say that two thousand, that two thousand and three,

1729
01:45:36,760 --> 01:45:41,559
Speaker 2: two thousand and four, I mean that NCAA championship game,

1730
01:45:42,040 --> 01:45:45,000
Speaker 2: being there with my family at Michigan Ohio State, being

1731
01:45:45,000 --> 01:45:47,920
Speaker 2: there at the Rose Bowl and they beat Alabama. I

1732
01:45:47,960 --> 01:45:50,680
Speaker 2: think that was kind of like you said, your whole life,

1733
01:45:50,760 --> 01:45:53,880
Speaker 2: if we ever won a national championship outright like that,

1734
01:45:54,479 --> 01:45:56,800
Speaker 2: I won't ask for anything more. I feel like I

1735
01:45:56,880 --> 01:45:59,040
Speaker 2: have to honor that for a few more years.

1736
01:45:59,439 --> 01:46:02,960
Speaker 1: And and you you never felt like the ninety seven

1737
01:46:03,040 --> 01:46:05,640
Speaker 1: title was just because you split it with Nebraska. It

1738
01:46:05,640 --> 01:46:06,719
Speaker 1: never felt perfect.

1739
01:46:08,640 --> 01:46:11,559
Speaker 2: It did never feel quite as perfect, though I was

1740
01:46:11,720 --> 01:46:14,559
Speaker 2: very happy, and I still to this day. You're ready

1741
01:46:14,600 --> 01:46:19,080
Speaker 2: for this. When Michigan came for their their ceremony, with Bill.

1742
01:46:19,040 --> 01:46:20,160
Speaker 1: Did you guys invite them both?

1743
01:46:20,240 --> 01:46:23,599
Speaker 2: By the way, Clinton the same day, but they had

1744
01:46:23,720 --> 01:46:28,640
Speaker 2: separate ceremonies, and the and the Bill Clinton and the

1745
01:46:28,680 --> 01:46:31,880
Speaker 2: Michigan one was right before a budget meeting, so they

1746
01:46:31,920 --> 01:46:35,600
Speaker 2: gave Bill Clinton a hat that he wore, and he

1747
01:46:35,720 --> 01:46:37,839
Speaker 2: came into the budget meeting. He was in the Cabinet

1748
01:46:37,880 --> 01:46:40,760
Speaker 2: office and the first thing he did was pulling me

1749
01:46:40,840 --> 01:46:43,880
Speaker 2: the cap. So I still have the hat that the

1750
01:46:43,960 --> 01:46:49,720
Speaker 2: ninety seven Michigan football team presented to him. And I

1751
01:46:49,800 --> 01:46:54,800
Speaker 2: also had the benefit of when Jim Harbaugh brought the

1752
01:46:54,880 --> 01:46:58,639
Speaker 2: team to d C during the Biden administration. I got

1753
01:46:58,640 --> 01:47:01,920
Speaker 2: invited to go over and be the dinner speaker at

1754
01:47:01,960 --> 01:47:04,200
Speaker 2: one of their whole dinners and hang out with him

1755
01:47:04,240 --> 01:47:07,839
Speaker 2: and them, and so oh, he will always be thankful

1756
01:47:07,840 --> 01:47:08,960
Speaker 2: for Jim Harbaugh for that.

1757
01:47:09,240 --> 01:47:11,320
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny about Jim Harbaugh, and I take

1758
01:47:11,360 --> 01:47:13,040
Speaker 1: it you've gotten to know him a little bit. A

1759
01:47:13,080 --> 01:47:15,759
Speaker 1: lot of people try to pigeonhole his politics. I'm guessing

1760
01:47:15,840 --> 01:47:19,160
Speaker 1: he's a He's like most Americans. It's not as predictable

1761
01:47:19,200 --> 01:47:21,040
Speaker 1: as people try to make them out to be. He's

1762
01:47:21,080 --> 01:47:24,760
Speaker 1: pretty passionate on some issues, like I know reproductive rights

1763
01:47:24,760 --> 01:47:27,400
Speaker 1: and things like that, and so people just assume he's

1764
01:47:27,400 --> 01:47:29,960
Speaker 1: in one place, but he seems like he's genuinely like

1765
01:47:30,040 --> 01:47:33,840
Speaker 1: your typical midwestern independent. There's a little bit of you

1766
01:47:33,840 --> 01:47:35,200
Speaker 1: don't quite know where he's coming down.

1767
01:47:35,240 --> 01:47:37,400
Speaker 2: Well, you know, yes, And it goes to the question

1768
01:47:37,439 --> 01:47:40,040
Speaker 2: you asked me before. I think people who sit around

1769
01:47:40,120 --> 01:47:44,360
Speaker 2: and think, oh, should we be angry, populist or centrist,

1770
01:47:44,680 --> 01:47:47,280
Speaker 2: it's not the right way to think. Think about real people.

1771
01:47:47,360 --> 01:47:49,960
Speaker 2: What's best for their lives, what's best for their family.

1772
01:47:50,320 --> 01:47:52,600
Speaker 2: That's gonna I think that, as we said, that's going

1773
01:47:52,680 --> 01:47:55,560
Speaker 2: to make for some populist anger, but it's but you

1774
01:47:55,600 --> 01:47:58,400
Speaker 2: should think about their lives. And I think, yes, Jim

1775
01:47:58,439 --> 01:48:01,240
Speaker 2: Harbaugh is one of those people that's a bit more complicated.

1776
01:48:01,320 --> 01:48:04,880
Speaker 2: It's very clear his wife is very pro life and

1777
01:48:04,920 --> 01:48:08,240
Speaker 2: he's respected. That is very the other hand, the real

1778
01:48:08,360 --> 01:48:11,439
Speaker 2: highlight of my you know, one of the highlights of

1779
01:48:11,479 --> 01:48:15,679
Speaker 2: my time in the Bide administration was I was speaking

1780
01:48:15,720 --> 01:48:20,559
Speaker 2: to the Legal Service Legal services, you know, the people

1781
01:48:20,600 --> 01:48:26,680
Speaker 2: who represent the poor, and as they brought, knowing my background,

1782
01:48:26,760 --> 01:48:30,679
Speaker 2: they brought Jim Harbaugh on to introduce me. Why because

1783
01:48:30,880 --> 01:48:36,040
Speaker 2: Jim Harbaugh has been a huge advocate of legal services

1784
01:48:36,040 --> 01:48:40,000
Speaker 2: for the poor and is actually on the National Advisory Board.

1785
01:48:40,560 --> 01:48:43,599
Speaker 2: So yeah, he's a little more complicated, and I think

1786
01:48:43,680 --> 01:48:46,439
Speaker 2: a lot of Americans are a little more complicated in

1787
01:48:46,479 --> 01:48:47,439
Speaker 2: exactly that way.

1788
01:48:47,720 --> 01:48:51,200
Speaker 1: So have you become LA's only Chargers fan now? Because

1789
01:48:51,200 --> 01:48:53,439
Speaker 1: I know there's people are looking for Charger fans in LA.

1790
01:48:53,640 --> 01:48:54,479
Speaker 1: They find them.

1791
01:48:55,040 --> 01:48:58,479
Speaker 2: Now, I'm a Lions fan. I'm lucky enough to kind

1792
01:48:58,560 --> 01:49:02,559
Speaker 2: of know a couple of owners of the Commanders, So

1793
01:49:02,880 --> 01:49:06,800
Speaker 2: I think if I have a second team now, it's

1794
01:49:06,840 --> 01:49:10,120
Speaker 2: the Commanders, but first team first and always will always

1795
01:49:10,200 --> 01:49:11,320
Speaker 2: be the Detroit Lions.

1796
01:49:11,680 --> 01:49:14,400
Speaker 1: Well, look, it's a you know I The only good

1797
01:49:14,439 --> 01:49:16,000
Speaker 1: news for you living out there in LA is you

1798
01:49:16,040 --> 01:49:18,160
Speaker 1: might be able to see Tarik Schooble pitches a Dodger

1799
01:49:18,400 --> 01:49:20,519
Speaker 1: before the season ends, which will really pitch you off.

1800
01:49:20,560 --> 01:49:22,400
Speaker 2: The only good news for me being now in LA

1801
01:49:22,840 --> 01:49:26,840
Speaker 2: is one word weather, second word weather, third word weather.

1802
01:49:28,920 --> 01:49:30,640
Speaker 1: Jane, It's always fun to talk with you. Good to

1803
01:49:30,680 --> 01:49:42,920
Speaker 1: catch Thanks all right, my friend, byebye. Well, I hope

1804
01:49:42,920 --> 01:49:45,639
Speaker 1: you enjoyed that conversation. It should be noted I would

1805
01:49:45,640 --> 01:49:47,240
Speaker 1: give you take a little bit behind the scenes, right

1806
01:49:47,600 --> 01:49:53,480
Speaker 1: we tape, you know, the interviews were taped, usually in isolation,

1807
01:49:53,760 --> 01:49:55,680
Speaker 1: and then I'll do a monologue and I'll do all

1808
01:49:55,720 --> 01:49:57,639
Speaker 1: these other things, and you know, we put them together.

1809
01:49:58,400 --> 01:50:03,880
Speaker 1: And in conversations with my producers Lauren and Nesa, we

1810
01:50:03,880 --> 01:50:08,360
Speaker 1: were talking about this accountability monologue that I just did.

1811
01:50:10,560 --> 01:50:14,759
Speaker 1: Lauren mused to me, and I thought it's worth responding.

1812
01:50:14,800 --> 01:50:18,519
Speaker 1: It's like boy ro Conna and Thomas Massey, what if

1813
01:50:18,520 --> 01:50:21,559
Speaker 1: they ran as a ticket in some form or another.

1814
01:50:22,280 --> 01:50:24,800
Speaker 1: And you know, on one hand, you can sit here

1815
01:50:24,800 --> 01:50:27,479
Speaker 1: and laugh about it. You're like, wow, that'd be unusual

1816
01:50:27,520 --> 01:50:30,080
Speaker 1: to me. And they don't really see eyed eye on

1817
01:50:30,160 --> 01:50:33,680
Speaker 1: much other than government transparency and accountability. But maybe that

1818
01:50:33,840 --> 01:50:37,040
Speaker 1: is a unifying necessity that the public needs in a moment.

1819
01:50:37,120 --> 01:50:39,160
Speaker 1: And you know, when I've been thinking about, you know,

1820
01:50:39,200 --> 01:50:42,040
Speaker 1: there's no doubt that both parties have lost so much

1821
01:50:42,080 --> 01:50:45,040
Speaker 1: trust with their membership for a variety of reasons. Right,

1822
01:50:45,280 --> 01:50:47,880
Speaker 1: this is why there's only you know, in self described

1823
01:50:47,920 --> 01:50:50,160
Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans twenty seven percent on each side, and

1824
01:50:50,160 --> 01:50:52,000
Speaker 1: it's about forty five to fifty percent of people and

1825
01:50:52,000 --> 01:50:54,960
Speaker 1: want to call themselves independent. You know, that doesn't mean

1826
01:50:55,000 --> 01:50:57,160
Speaker 1: that a fewer people are left and right it's just

1827
01:50:57,200 --> 01:50:59,479
Speaker 1: they don't want to feel like they can identify with

1828
01:50:59,479 --> 01:51:02,840
Speaker 1: the other party. And while you've heard me advocate for

1829
01:51:02,880 --> 01:51:05,840
Speaker 1: independent candidates, we had Paul Raikoff on here, it may

1830
01:51:05,880 --> 01:51:09,360
Speaker 1: be that a bipartisan ticket that poks on both their

1831
01:51:09,400 --> 01:51:13,600
Speaker 1: houses is a more powerful statement and maybe the temporary

1832
01:51:13,640 --> 01:51:18,559
Speaker 1: reset the country needs. So, whether it's Conna Massey, whether

1833
01:51:18,800 --> 01:51:22,000
Speaker 1: it's oh, let me throw another one out there, how

1834
01:51:22,000 --> 01:51:26,439
Speaker 1: about Jared Poulis and Kevin Stead of Oklahoma, or you know,

1835
01:51:26,640 --> 01:51:28,600
Speaker 1: I don't know, I mean, we could go down, how

1836
01:51:28,640 --> 01:51:31,680
Speaker 1: about Lisa Murkowski and Raphael Warnock. I mean point is

1837
01:51:31,680 --> 01:51:33,400
Speaker 1: is that that may be what it takes to sober

1838
01:51:33,479 --> 01:51:37,200
Speaker 1: up both parties to have to reform themselves. All right,

1839
01:51:37,600 --> 01:51:46,040
Speaker 1: let's go into the time machine. Where am I going?

1840
01:51:46,040 --> 01:51:51,160
Speaker 1: Eighteen forties that reverberates today? Well, this week takes us

1841
01:51:51,240 --> 01:51:55,840
Speaker 1: to February twenty first, eighteen forty eight. It's the day

1842
01:51:55,960 --> 01:51:59,680
Speaker 1: that a short political pamphlet was published in London. It's

1843
01:51:59,720 --> 01:52:07,200
Speaker 1: tied the Communist Manifesto. The authors Karl Marx and Frederick Ingels.

1844
01:52:07,680 --> 01:52:10,720
Speaker 1: It was barely fifty pages. It was written for a

1845
01:52:10,760 --> 01:52:13,800
Speaker 1: small political league, is what it was known at the time.

1846
01:52:14,040 --> 01:52:16,360
Speaker 1: And yet it became one of the most influential and

1847
01:52:16,560 --> 01:52:22,880
Speaker 1: most abused texts in modern history. So let's start. Why

1848
01:52:23,400 --> 01:52:27,240
Speaker 1: was eighteen forty eight and explosive era or a year

1849
01:52:27,880 --> 01:52:31,439
Speaker 1: in world politics? The Manifesto lands at a remarkable moment.

1850
01:52:31,920 --> 01:52:36,240
Speaker 1: Europe in eighteen forty eight was convulsant. Industrialization was accelerating,

1851
01:52:36,880 --> 01:52:41,960
Speaker 1: steam power, railroads, factories, mass migration from the countryside to

1852
01:52:42,000 --> 01:52:46,000
Speaker 1: the cities in search of work. Traditional political systems at

1853
01:52:46,000 --> 01:52:48,360
Speaker 1: the time were the monarchies and the aristocracies, and they

1854
01:52:48,360 --> 01:52:53,080
Speaker 1: were colliding with these modern economic forces that were developing.

1855
01:52:53,720 --> 01:52:58,880
Speaker 1: Within days of this pamphlet's publication, revolutions erupt across Europe

1856
01:52:59,200 --> 01:53:03,439
Speaker 1: timing year, Matt Marx and Engels weren't fantasizing about the upheaval.

1857
01:53:04,320 --> 01:53:08,920
Speaker 1: They were observing instability that was already underway. And that's

1858
01:53:09,400 --> 01:53:13,800
Speaker 1: how I want people to read this Manifesto and understand it.

1859
01:53:13,840 --> 01:53:17,519
Speaker 1: Their argument wasn't that capitalism was weak. It was that

1860
01:53:17,560 --> 01:53:21,960
Speaker 1: capitalism was so powerful and transformative that it would destabilize

1861
01:53:21,960 --> 01:53:28,639
Speaker 1: everything around it. Now, what the text actually does here's

1862
01:53:28,640 --> 01:53:32,000
Speaker 1: something that surprises people who've never actually read the Communist Manifesto.

1863
01:53:32,040 --> 01:53:35,000
Speaker 1: The first half of the manifesto reads less like a

1864
01:53:35,080 --> 01:53:39,800
Speaker 1: denunciation of capitalism and more like a strange admiration. Marx

1865
01:53:39,840 --> 01:53:44,080
Speaker 1: writes that the bourgeoisie, the capitalist class, has done the

1866
01:53:44,160 --> 01:53:50,479
Speaker 1: following accomplished wonders greater than the pyramids, revolutionized production, dissolve

1867
01:53:50,640 --> 01:53:53,760
Speaker 1: feudal hierarchies which were terrible to people. By the way,

1868
01:53:54,840 --> 01:53:57,840
Speaker 1: in globalized markets, which we do know lifted a lot

1869
01:53:57,880 --> 01:54:01,040
Speaker 1: of people out of poverty. That's not the language of

1870
01:54:01,080 --> 01:54:03,880
Speaker 1: simple hostility, and that's what you know. This is what

1871
01:54:03,920 --> 01:54:08,840
Speaker 1: I think people need to at least absorb the observation

1872
01:54:09,040 --> 01:54:11,360
Speaker 1: that Marx and Ingles were making. They were making an

1873
01:54:11,360 --> 01:54:16,840
Speaker 1: analytical argument. Capitalism, in Marxist telling, is dynamic, innovative, and

1874
01:54:17,000 --> 01:54:22,920
Speaker 1: historically transformative. I agree. He also said it's destabilizing, and

1875
01:54:22,960 --> 01:54:28,720
Speaker 1: that's something we've all learned. Capitalism unchecked can be destabilizing. Now,

1876
01:54:28,760 --> 01:54:32,840
Speaker 1: Marx had one idea, but I think we've all sort

1877
01:54:32,880 --> 01:54:35,640
Speaker 1: of agreed that there's needs to be guardrails on capitalism.

1878
01:54:35,880 --> 01:54:38,920
Speaker 1: What we've debated is what kind of guardrails and how

1879
01:54:38,920 --> 01:54:42,000
Speaker 1: sturdy should they be. But it is destabilizing, and it

1880
01:54:42,040 --> 01:54:45,480
Speaker 1: was at the time because it reduces labor to a commodity,

1881
01:54:45,600 --> 01:54:49,520
Speaker 1: It concentrates capital, it produces cycles of boom and bust.

1882
01:54:49,800 --> 01:54:57,080
Speaker 1: Creative destruction creates inequality faster in political institutions struggle to

1883
01:54:57,080 --> 01:55:00,440
Speaker 1: adjust to the speed. So here's a deeper question. If

1884
01:55:00,440 --> 01:55:04,480
Speaker 1: this pamphlet weren't titled the Communist Manifesto, if it was

1885
01:55:04,600 --> 01:55:09,640
Speaker 1: titled something like on the Instability of Industrial Capitalism, how

1886
01:55:09,680 --> 01:55:13,160
Speaker 1: would we read it? You might interpret it. Much of

1887
01:55:13,200 --> 01:55:16,160
Speaker 1: it is simply a warning of what happens when capitalism

1888
01:55:16,160 --> 01:55:20,440
Speaker 1: is unchecked. A warning that rapid economic transformation produces social fracture,

1889
01:55:20,840 --> 01:55:24,760
Speaker 1: a warning that unregulated market forces can create backlash, all

1890
01:55:24,760 --> 01:55:27,200
Speaker 1: true by the way we've experience it in this country.

1891
01:55:27,800 --> 01:55:32,839
Speaker 1: A warning that growth without guardrails destabilizes democracies. But Marx

1892
01:55:32,920 --> 01:55:36,280
Speaker 1: does go further than simply warning, and he doesn't argue

1893
01:55:36,280 --> 01:55:42,320
Speaker 1: for reform. He instead predicts inevitability. He argues that capitalism's

1894
01:55:42,320 --> 01:55:46,600
Speaker 1: internal contradictions will eventually destroy it and that reform cannot

1895
01:55:46,640 --> 01:55:50,000
Speaker 1: save it. And this is where it shifts from structural

1896
01:55:50,040 --> 01:55:54,520
Speaker 1: critique to becoming what it was used for for hundreds

1897
01:55:54,560 --> 01:55:59,240
Speaker 1: of years, revolutionary doctrine. Now, the book does end with

1898
01:55:59,320 --> 01:56:03,240
Speaker 1: the rallying workers of the world unite. The line is short,

1899
01:56:03,360 --> 01:56:07,920
Speaker 1: it's emotional, and it's portable. It's designed to mobilize. So

1900
01:56:08,000 --> 01:56:10,560
Speaker 1: it was designed to fire people up. And here's the irony.

1901
01:56:11,080 --> 01:56:14,280
Speaker 1: Most of the pamphlet is theory, and history simply remembers

1902
01:56:14,280 --> 01:56:18,120
Speaker 1: that slogan. Now, how did it get misused? Because like

1903
01:56:18,160 --> 01:56:21,520
Speaker 1: everything in history, you see stuff get misused. Let's get

1904
01:56:21,520 --> 01:56:22,960
Speaker 1: to the heart of part. The manifesto was writ in

1905
01:56:23,000 --> 01:56:27,400
Speaker 1: eighteen forty eight. The regimes most people associate with Communism

1906
01:56:27,920 --> 01:56:30,600
Speaker 1: under leaders like Joseph Stalin and Mazi Dung and Mao

1907
01:56:31,360 --> 01:56:34,920
Speaker 1: emerged nearly a century later, and those regimes were one

1908
01:56:34,960 --> 01:56:38,360
Speaker 1: party states. They were highly centralized, they were militarized, and

1909
01:56:38,400 --> 01:56:43,720
Speaker 1: they were often brutally repressive. Now, in the manifesto itself,

1910
01:56:43,800 --> 01:56:47,200
Speaker 1: there's no blueprint for Gulag's, there's no manual for secret police,

1911
01:56:47,240 --> 01:56:51,800
Speaker 1: there's no architectural plan for totalitarian bureaucracy. I don't think

1912
01:56:51,840 --> 01:56:55,760
Speaker 1: Karl Marx thought of himself as a totalitarian here and

1913
01:56:56,240 --> 01:56:59,960
Speaker 1: would admire what Stalin or Mao did with his manifesto.

1914
01:57:00,920 --> 01:57:03,640
Speaker 1: So now you'd ask yourself, how did a dense economic

1915
01:57:03,720 --> 01:57:08,680
Speaker 1: critique of the moment become the ideological backbone for dictators.

1916
01:57:09,160 --> 01:57:14,080
Speaker 1: Here's how authoritarian leaders, in order to grab power need

1917
01:57:14,280 --> 01:57:20,520
Speaker 1: three things. A moral narrative gave them one, a villain, bankers, capitalists, etc.

1918
01:57:21,080 --> 01:57:25,320
Speaker 1: And a promise of justice. So Marx provided a compelling villain,

1919
01:57:25,880 --> 01:57:31,720
Speaker 1: the elite, the bourgeois. He provided a moral framework class exploitation,

1920
01:57:33,000 --> 01:57:36,200
Speaker 1: hey man, class warfare always works on American politics, trust me.

1921
01:57:36,560 --> 01:57:40,000
Speaker 1: And he provided emotionally powerful language. Workers of the World United.

1922
01:57:41,040 --> 01:57:43,400
Speaker 1: And what later leaders did was simplified even more. They

1923
01:57:43,400 --> 01:57:45,680
Speaker 1: took a complex structural theory and turned it into a

1924
01:57:45,720 --> 01:57:48,600
Speaker 1: binary the people and the enemies of the people. Which

1925
01:57:48,640 --> 01:57:52,600
Speaker 1: side are you on? Once politics becomes moral absolutism, that's

1926
01:57:52,640 --> 01:57:57,960
Speaker 1: when the institution's weaken. And once institution's weaken, ideology becomes

1927
01:57:58,000 --> 01:58:00,760
Speaker 1: cover for control. It's important we got to be honest

1928
01:58:00,760 --> 01:58:04,800
Speaker 1: about this. Marx does advocate abolition of private ownership of

1929
01:58:04,880 --> 01:58:08,600
Speaker 1: the means of production, and he does call for revolutionary transformation.

1930
01:58:09,280 --> 01:58:13,920
Speaker 1: That language lends itself to radical application, but it does

1931
01:58:13,960 --> 01:58:18,200
Speaker 1: not logically require personality cults and mass purges and secret

1932
01:58:18,200 --> 01:58:26,800
Speaker 1: police dates. He was simply talking about economics. But those

1933
01:58:26,840 --> 01:58:33,120
Speaker 1: other derivatives were choices made by dictators operating in volatile environments,

1934
01:58:33,240 --> 01:58:37,680
Speaker 1: civil war, foreign intervention, economic collapse. And they discovered that

1935
01:58:37,720 --> 01:58:41,800
Speaker 1: if you simplified ideology into moral purity and made it,

1936
01:58:41,800 --> 01:58:44,920
Speaker 1: it made it easier to consolidate power. Right, you could

1937
01:58:44,960 --> 01:58:47,520
Speaker 1: either use Marx or you can use a religious text.

1938
01:58:47,600 --> 01:58:55,440
Speaker 1: But we've seen the pattern here. Nationalism gets weaponized, religious

1939
01:58:55,440 --> 01:58:59,600
Speaker 1: text gets weaponized, Marxism gets weaponized, Liberal democracy has been weaponized.

1940
01:59:00,520 --> 01:59:05,360
Speaker 1: Complex ideas get flattened into slogan. Slogan's mobilized masses. Mass mobilization,

1941
01:59:05,560 --> 01:59:09,880
Speaker 1: then does what centralizes power? Power seeks permanence. Marx didn't

1942
01:59:09,880 --> 01:59:13,280
Speaker 1: invent the pattern, he was simply folded into it. So

1943
01:59:13,360 --> 01:59:17,800
Speaker 1: Marx did, though, predict revolution what happened in advanced industrial democracies. Instead,

1944
01:59:18,160 --> 01:59:22,040
Speaker 1: that isn't where these revolutions happened. These communist revolutions took

1945
01:59:22,040 --> 01:59:27,160
Speaker 1: hold in essentially the losers in industrialization, the places that

1946
01:59:27,200 --> 01:59:33,120
Speaker 1: were behind the industrial leaders of the world Sarist Russia, MAOIs, China,

1947
01:59:33,560 --> 01:59:38,160
Speaker 1: some of these postcolonial states. Right, the mismatch does matter.

1948
01:59:38,240 --> 01:59:42,920
Speaker 1: His theory assumed capitalism would mature fully before collapse. Well,

1949
01:59:42,960 --> 01:59:47,800
Speaker 1: that isn't what happened here. And if anything, his manifesto

1950
01:59:48,000 --> 01:59:53,240
Speaker 1: was used as a way almost to prevent the good

1951
01:59:53,320 --> 01:59:57,720
Speaker 1: side of capitalism from encroaching into Russia, China in some

1952
01:59:57,760 --> 02:00:01,040
Speaker 1: of these post colonial countries, and instead said you have

1953
02:00:01,080 --> 02:00:04,000
Speaker 1: to fear this, so let's fight it before it gets here.

1954
02:00:06,840 --> 02:00:10,160
Speaker 1: So today, the Communist Manifesto gets invoked in American politics

1955
02:00:10,160 --> 02:00:13,680
Speaker 1: in two equally inaccurate ways. On the left it sometimes

1956
02:00:13,800 --> 02:00:16,600
Speaker 1: romanticized as a moral call for fairness, and on the

1957
02:00:16,680 --> 02:00:19,640
Speaker 1: right it's treated as the origin story for every authoritarian

1958
02:00:19,680 --> 02:00:24,160
Speaker 1: regime of the twentieth century, And both of those stereotypes

1959
02:00:24,240 --> 02:00:28,360
Speaker 1: flatten men right. The deeper truth is as always, very

1960
02:00:28,840 --> 02:00:32,400
Speaker 1: very much less tidy. The Manifesto identified a recurring tension

1961
02:00:32,400 --> 02:00:39,440
Speaker 1: in modern societies. Economic dynamism creates indisability. Wealth concentration creates

1962
02:00:39,480 --> 02:00:44,640
Speaker 1: backlash political systems like behind technological change. You don't have

1963
02:00:44,680 --> 02:00:49,560
Speaker 1: to endorse Marks's conclusions to recognize that his diagnosis still resonates.

1964
02:00:50,280 --> 02:00:57,360
Speaker 1: His diagnosis is spot on. His conclusions were way too radical.

1965
02:00:58,880 --> 02:01:01,760
Speaker 1: The question, though he in eighteen forty eight, still echoes

1966
02:01:01,800 --> 02:01:04,560
Speaker 1: and echoes quite a bit today. Can capitalism regulate itself

1967
02:01:04,760 --> 02:01:09,080
Speaker 1: or must politics restrain it to preserve stability? I think

1968
02:01:09,120 --> 02:01:14,880
Speaker 1: there is a collective other than a handful of maniacs

1969
02:01:14,880 --> 02:01:17,640
Speaker 1: and Silicon Valley. I think most of us agree that

1970
02:01:17,680 --> 02:01:22,160
Speaker 1: capitalism needs some guardrails. It does not regulate itself. Sorry

1971
02:01:22,240 --> 02:01:27,360
Speaker 1: Iron Mark's answered that reform would fail. Modern democracies have

1972
02:01:27,400 --> 02:01:33,760
Speaker 1: tried another route, regulation, labor law, social insurance, antitrust. You know,

1973
02:01:34,320 --> 02:01:36,920
Speaker 1: we have fits and starts, it works and then it doesn't.

1974
02:01:36,960 --> 02:01:39,240
Speaker 1: Now it doesn't help that none of this is working

1975
02:01:39,280 --> 02:01:41,040
Speaker 1: right now because we have a government that does not

1976
02:01:41,080 --> 02:01:43,800
Speaker 1: have the trust of the public. So you need public

1977
02:01:43,840 --> 02:01:49,120
Speaker 1: trust in order to successfully regulate and to enforce labor law,

1978
02:01:49,240 --> 02:01:54,880
Speaker 1: and to make that social insurance seem nonpartisan instead of partisans.

1979
02:01:56,720 --> 02:01:59,440
Speaker 1: But either way, the pamphlet refuses to die because the

1980
02:01:59,480 --> 02:02:05,800
Speaker 1: diagnosis is very familiar. It wasn't just an attack on capitalism.

1981
02:02:05,920 --> 02:02:09,600
Speaker 1: It was a warning about what happens when economic systems

1982
02:02:09,960 --> 02:02:15,920
Speaker 1: transform faster than how politics can respond. Kind of seems

1983
02:02:15,960 --> 02:02:21,440
Speaker 1: familiar today, doesn't it. This is why the way we're

1984
02:02:21,480 --> 02:02:25,160
Speaker 1: going about AI is going to push people in more

1985
02:02:25,240 --> 02:02:29,240
Speaker 1: radical places, just like it pushed people into radical Marxism

1986
02:02:29,800 --> 02:02:33,600
Speaker 1: belief in some parts of Marxism, when actually we're not

1987
02:02:34,040 --> 02:02:38,480
Speaker 1: listening to the first part, the analytical part, where we

1988
02:02:38,560 --> 02:02:41,640
Speaker 1: need some guardrails we need some regulation. You can't trust

1989
02:02:41,640 --> 02:02:43,840
Speaker 1: the private sector to do this on their own. What

1990
02:02:43,880 --> 02:02:50,000
Speaker 1: we're doing with AI is playing with nuclear fire, essentially

1991
02:02:50,080 --> 02:02:54,120
Speaker 1: nuclear powered fire, if there is such thing. All right,

1992
02:02:54,280 --> 02:03:04,760
Speaker 1: there's your history lesson. Let's go to some questions. Ask

1993
02:03:04,960 --> 02:03:11,160
Speaker 1: Chuck a little last Chuck. Here we go. First question

1994
02:03:11,280 --> 02:03:15,760
Speaker 1: comes from a huge University of Michigan fan, so we'll

1995
02:03:15,760 --> 02:03:18,240
Speaker 1: go there. Hey, Chuck, thanks for reading this, love the podcast,

1996
02:03:18,280 --> 02:03:20,000
Speaker 1: and I've been a fan since your Daily rundown Day

1997
02:03:20,000 --> 02:03:23,040
Speaker 1: circa twenty ten. Well man, you go way back. Thank you. Anyway,

1998
02:03:23,040 --> 02:03:24,840
Speaker 1: my question is on the economic numbers we get from

1999
02:03:24,840 --> 02:03:27,000
Speaker 1: this administration. Does something seem a little wonky to you?

2000
02:03:27,960 --> 02:03:30,320
Speaker 1: The same month ADP tails his layoffs at their highest

2001
02:03:30,720 --> 02:03:32,600
Speaker 1: level since twenty oh nine, we get a jobs report

2002
02:03:32,600 --> 02:03:34,480
Speaker 1: claiming that the job creation is on the upswing. Then

2003
02:03:34,520 --> 02:03:37,120
Speaker 1: we get a CPI report claiming that inflation has following

2004
02:03:37,200 --> 02:03:39,120
Speaker 1: to two point four percent. But every time you go

2005
02:03:39,160 --> 02:03:41,840
Speaker 1: to grocery shopping you get sticker shock from something new

2006
02:03:42,040 --> 02:03:43,840
Speaker 1: and the only one who's not buying it. Is it

2007
02:03:43,880 --> 02:03:46,440
Speaker 1: possible someone is cooking the numbers to make Trump look better?

2008
02:03:46,680 --> 02:03:48,600
Speaker 1: After all, he fired the woman who used to compile

2009
02:03:48,600 --> 02:03:50,720
Speaker 1: the jobs report because he didn't like the numbers she

2010
02:03:50,800 --> 02:03:53,200
Speaker 1: was putting out. Thanks for your time, Phil and Rogers City, Michigan,

2011
02:03:53,440 --> 02:03:56,640
Speaker 1: big fan of the other, You of m Go Blue.

2012
02:03:56,720 --> 02:03:58,560
Speaker 1: Yes it is you. I have learned this. You of

2013
02:03:58,840 --> 02:04:06,080
Speaker 1: m is Michigan. Of course is Miami. Look. Welcome to

2014
02:04:07,160 --> 02:04:11,160
Speaker 1: the What happens when a government doesn't tell you the

2015
02:04:11,240 --> 02:04:14,360
Speaker 1: truth in all of these other places? Right, the government

2016
02:04:14,360 --> 02:04:17,320
Speaker 1: misleads you on your health, The government misleads you on

2017
02:04:17,400 --> 02:04:23,360
Speaker 1: airline safety, the government misleads you on immigration enforcement. So

2018
02:04:23,520 --> 02:04:26,560
Speaker 1: of course you're not going to believe the numbers. You know,

2019
02:04:27,280 --> 02:04:30,000
Speaker 1: you know, it's sort of do you believe your lying eyes? Right?

2020
02:04:30,040 --> 02:04:32,800
Speaker 1: People experience at the end of the day. It's why

2021
02:04:33,080 --> 02:04:35,760
Speaker 1: now the polling is going to matter here a little

2022
02:04:35,760 --> 02:04:39,480
Speaker 1: bit more and hearing you know, you know, people the

2023
02:04:39,760 --> 02:04:42,400
Speaker 1: public will tell us whether they feel as if this

2024
02:04:42,480 --> 02:04:46,600
Speaker 1: economy is getting better. Look, it was a shocking jobs

2025
02:04:46,600 --> 02:04:51,320
Speaker 1: report considering everything else that went into it. It's It's

2026
02:04:51,360 --> 02:04:54,080
Speaker 1: also one of the things I've learned is be careful

2027
02:04:54,080 --> 02:04:57,880
Speaker 1: of judging one one report. A lot of times you'll

2028
02:04:57,880 --> 02:04:59,640
Speaker 1: have an outlier and then later, I mean, it was

2029
02:05:00,800 --> 02:05:03,720
Speaker 1: it seemed you know, now the reason the report is

2030
02:05:03,800 --> 02:05:06,520
Speaker 1: believable to me, is where all the job gains came from.

2031
02:05:06,600 --> 02:05:09,520
Speaker 1: They came from the only part of the economy that's

2032
02:05:09,560 --> 02:05:13,240
Speaker 1: growing home health care. Why is it growing because we're

2033
02:05:13,240 --> 02:05:16,839
Speaker 1: all living longer and we need more home health care aids?

2034
02:05:17,120 --> 02:05:19,720
Speaker 1: And why are these jobs? Why are there's so many

2035
02:05:19,800 --> 02:05:22,160
Speaker 1: job openings for them? Because of what we're done with

2036
02:05:22,200 --> 02:05:25,680
Speaker 1: immigration enforcement. A lot of first gen, first generation Americans

2037
02:05:26,880 --> 02:05:30,880
Speaker 1: that come here as adults, that's that's the easiest first

2038
02:05:30,960 --> 02:05:34,080
Speaker 1: job they can It is consistent that they can get

2039
02:05:34,080 --> 02:05:37,320
Speaker 1: their hands on. So but I understand why you don't

2040
02:05:37,320 --> 02:05:41,080
Speaker 1: believe them, because they've given you no reason to believe them. Right.

2041
02:05:41,320 --> 02:05:43,480
Speaker 1: This is a government that has gone out of its

2042
02:05:43,520 --> 02:05:48,480
Speaker 1: way to miss to mislabel things, to so distrust, to

2043
02:05:48,800 --> 02:05:51,520
Speaker 1: lead with narratives before the facts come out, as we've

2044
02:05:51,600 --> 02:05:55,520
Speaker 1: learned time and again at DHS, time and again at

2045
02:05:55,600 --> 02:05:58,760
Speaker 1: the Department of Health and Human Services. You brought up

2046
02:05:58,920 --> 02:06:04,440
Speaker 1: the answers. I have nothing to tell you other than,

2047
02:06:04,880 --> 02:06:06,720
Speaker 1: like I said, there are some things in the job

2048
02:06:06,720 --> 02:06:10,320
Speaker 1: report that do fit the facts, and the growth of

2049
02:06:10,360 --> 02:06:13,720
Speaker 1: home healthcare aids and the fact that that job number

2050
02:06:13,760 --> 02:06:16,840
Speaker 1: goes up as immigration reinforcement because a lot of those jobs.

2051
02:06:17,640 --> 02:06:22,280
Speaker 1: Perhaps we're off the books and now they're less off

2052
02:06:22,320 --> 02:06:25,200
Speaker 1: the books than they were, so that it is possible

2053
02:06:25,240 --> 02:06:27,920
Speaker 1: that explains why there is a specific surge in one

2054
02:06:28,040 --> 02:06:32,440
Speaker 1: category but nowhere else. As for inflation coming down, in fairness,

2055
02:06:32,520 --> 02:06:38,280
Speaker 1: it has been. The question is whether it will stay

2056
02:06:38,320 --> 02:06:40,440
Speaker 1: that way or whether this is just a quick dip.

2057
02:06:40,800 --> 02:06:44,840
Speaker 1: And then, of course, when if Trump gets his way

2058
02:06:44,880 --> 02:06:47,360
Speaker 1: with a new FED share that does lower interest rates,

2059
02:06:47,400 --> 02:06:50,800
Speaker 1: an he's still enforcing these tariffs plus the tax refunds,

2060
02:06:50,800 --> 02:06:52,600
Speaker 1: will we have too much money in the economy, which

2061
02:06:52,640 --> 02:06:58,560
Speaker 1: then launches inflation again. So I think it continues to

2062
02:06:58,600 --> 02:07:03,200
Speaker 1: be an unsteady economy. And you have every the government

2063
02:07:03,200 --> 02:07:08,680
Speaker 1: has given you no reason to believe everything they're putting out,

2064
02:07:08,720 --> 02:07:12,760
Speaker 1: So I understand your skepticism, but I also think we'll just,

2065
02:07:12,920 --> 02:07:16,400
Speaker 1: you know, let's take a look at the next report.

2066
02:07:17,880 --> 02:07:21,240
Speaker 1: In some fairness to the BLS, right, we had the

2067
02:07:21,280 --> 02:07:24,800
Speaker 1: government shutdown which caused sort of so this, you know,

2068
02:07:24,840 --> 02:07:28,200
Speaker 1: this could also be a catchup as well, and then

2069
02:07:28,200 --> 02:07:33,320
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens over the next couple of months. Okay.

2070
02:07:33,400 --> 02:07:37,200
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Mike from South Florida, and he

2071
02:07:37,320 --> 02:07:39,880
Speaker 1: knows why whenever I see the word South Florida means

2072
02:07:39,920 --> 02:07:41,440
Speaker 1: you're not from Miami, and he goes, yes, I'm from

2073
02:07:41,440 --> 02:07:45,320
Speaker 1: Broward County. Thank you, Mike for your transparency there about

2074
02:07:45,320 --> 02:07:49,520
Speaker 1: your South Florida ties gate as a label for scandals

2075
02:07:49,520 --> 02:07:52,480
Speaker 1: feels tired, and I wonder if it's time for something

2076
02:07:52,520 --> 02:07:55,080
Speaker 1: punchier to cut through the noise. I half jokingly suggest

2077
02:07:55,400 --> 02:07:58,800
Speaker 1: calling Eric Hunter Trump, I see what you're doing there

2078
02:07:58,800 --> 02:08:02,320
Speaker 1: and dubbing the situation the United States of Emirates to

2079
02:08:02,400 --> 02:08:06,280
Speaker 1: mirror the viral style of modern conspiracy framing. That said,

2080
02:08:06,280 --> 02:08:08,839
Speaker 1: I appreciate they do avoid clickbait and focus on substance.

2081
02:08:08,880 --> 02:08:11,680
Speaker 1: That's exactly why I tuned in, Mike, I appreciate it.

2082
02:08:11,760 --> 02:08:14,800
Speaker 1: You know. One of my favorite when I was at

2083
02:08:14,800 --> 02:08:17,720
Speaker 1: the Hotline, which was back in the nineties, what made

2084
02:08:17,760 --> 02:08:21,720
Speaker 1: us sort of gave us a little cult following in DC,

2085
02:08:21,960 --> 02:08:24,520
Speaker 1: is that we always tried to have humor all the time.

2086
02:08:25,040 --> 02:08:27,560
Speaker 1: We knew we were writing for a professional audience, so

2087
02:08:27,600 --> 02:08:30,920
Speaker 1: we could we could bring humor to situations that maybe

2088
02:08:30,920 --> 02:08:35,040
Speaker 1: in another place or on social media, would would come

2089
02:08:35,080 --> 02:08:38,120
Speaker 1: across as bad taste to some. But one of my

2090
02:08:38,240 --> 02:08:43,800
Speaker 1: favorite headlines that we ran once it wasn't mine. I

2091
02:08:43,840 --> 02:08:47,720
Speaker 1: think it was my friend Steve Billefort, who was probably

2092
02:08:47,760 --> 02:08:50,160
Speaker 1: the funniest guy we ever had in Hotline and in

2093
02:08:50,360 --> 02:08:52,200
Speaker 1: one of the smartest editors we ever had as well.

2094
02:08:54,560 --> 02:08:56,840
Speaker 1: I think it was one of these travel gates or

2095
02:08:56,960 --> 02:08:59,200
Speaker 1: you know, something that we were given the gate to it, right,

2096
02:09:00,080 --> 02:09:03,440
Speaker 1: the headline ones I'll take ends in gate for one

2097
02:09:03,440 --> 02:09:07,440
Speaker 1: thousand alys where we were trying to mock this issue. Look,

2098
02:09:07,480 --> 02:09:11,800
Speaker 1: it's there's nothing says intellectual laziness by by a headline

2099
02:09:11,800 --> 02:09:15,960
Speaker 1: writer than just giving the gate to something. Look for

2100
02:09:15,960 --> 02:09:19,240
Speaker 1: for a generation, it made sense, right, Watergate was huge,

2101
02:09:19,320 --> 02:09:22,120
Speaker 1: So you did you know the gate thing was you know,

2102
02:09:22,200 --> 02:09:25,400
Speaker 1: this is like Watergate or this or that? Right. I

2103
02:09:25,440 --> 02:09:28,840
Speaker 1: think now that we're now past fifty years of it,

2104
02:09:28,920 --> 02:09:34,080
Speaker 1: you know it's it's it's it's about time we can

2105
02:09:34,120 --> 02:09:37,120
Speaker 1: do better. And I appreciate your your efforts here, Eric

2106
02:09:37,240 --> 02:09:44,040
Speaker 1: Hunter Trump. It's I think it works better with Donald junior,

2107
02:09:44,080 --> 02:09:47,000
Speaker 1: Donald Hunter Trump Junior, because he's actually a hunter, right,

2108
02:09:47,040 --> 02:09:48,400
Speaker 1: So then you can you know he likes to do

2109
02:09:48,440 --> 02:09:51,440
Speaker 1: the big game, Honey, I don't know. And U s

2110
02:09:51,480 --> 02:09:54,280
Speaker 1: E U s E. I could see that, right, And

2111
02:09:54,600 --> 02:09:58,160
Speaker 1: what is U s e U S. What else does that?

2112
02:09:58,840 --> 02:10:01,240
Speaker 1: What act? What? What? What acronym with that turned into

2113
02:10:01,240 --> 02:10:02,400
Speaker 1: for your United States of Emirates?

2114
02:10:02,440 --> 02:10:02,560
Speaker 2: Oh?

2115
02:10:02,680 --> 02:10:05,160
Speaker 1: Use? And what are other countries and rich people doing

2116
02:10:05,160 --> 02:10:12,680
Speaker 1: with the United States? They're using our government anyway? Fun one, Mike, Thanks.

2117
02:10:12,920 --> 02:10:16,360
Speaker 1: Next question comes from shame Parts unknown, and he said, Hey,

2118
02:10:16,400 --> 02:10:18,280
Speaker 1: I just listened to your double top five about the

2119
02:10:18,400 --> 02:10:21,920
Speaker 1: formally lawful yet unusual practices of the past and the

2120
02:10:22,080 --> 02:10:24,480
Speaker 1: amendments that should be in our near future. However, I

2121
02:10:24,520 --> 02:10:27,200
Speaker 1: think there should be an honorable mention. With yet another

2122
02:10:27,200 --> 02:10:29,520
Speaker 1: government shut down nearing, should there be an amendment or

2123
02:10:29,560 --> 02:10:33,120
Speaker 1: whatever is applicable in this situation that make the salaries

2124
02:10:33,120 --> 02:10:35,240
Speaker 1: of the House and Senate members first on the chopping block.

2125
02:10:35,320 --> 02:10:39,120
Speaker 1: Rather than shuttering services utilized by citizens, furlowing folks that

2126
02:10:39,160 --> 02:10:41,640
Speaker 1: live paycheck to paycheck, and forcing others to continue to

2127
02:10:41,680 --> 02:10:45,120
Speaker 1: work without immediate compensation, we could withhold their bi weekly

2128
02:10:45,120 --> 02:10:47,400
Speaker 1: payroll three point five million, if my math is correct,

2129
02:10:47,440 --> 02:10:51,280
Speaker 1: five hundred and thirty five members atred and fifty dollars each.

2130
02:10:51,280 --> 02:10:54,280
Speaker 1: While this probably barely scratches the surface of the cost,

2131
02:10:54,560 --> 02:10:56,800
Speaker 1: maybe it would better influence them to work around the

2132
02:10:56,800 --> 02:10:59,120
Speaker 1: clock to resolve the matters in hand. After all, they

2133
02:10:59,160 --> 02:11:02,360
Speaker 1: are the governmental employees that are not satisfying the criteria

2134
02:11:02,400 --> 02:11:05,280
Speaker 1: of which they were elected. I appreciate their salary hasn't

2135
02:11:05,280 --> 02:11:08,240
Speaker 1: been increased in nearly twenty years, but they are still

2136
02:11:08,280 --> 02:11:11,440
Speaker 1: making about double the national average. Thoughts on intended consequences

2137
02:11:11,440 --> 02:11:18,280
Speaker 1: with this modification, you know you've had some do this. Look,

2138
02:11:18,360 --> 02:11:21,080
Speaker 1: I do think we need to compensate elected officials better

2139
02:11:21,200 --> 02:11:25,320
Speaker 1: because you don't want you don't want it to only

2140
02:11:25,360 --> 02:11:28,320
Speaker 1: being wealthy people like I think where we really sort

2141
02:11:28,360 --> 02:11:31,760
Speaker 1: of screw the pooches on state legislatures, where some of them,

2142
02:11:31,800 --> 02:11:35,320
Speaker 1: these part time legislatures are just basically paid paid a stipend.

2143
02:11:35,680 --> 02:11:38,400
Speaker 1: And what to me that opens them up to is fraud, right,

2144
02:11:38,440 --> 02:11:43,000
Speaker 1: which is somebody who's who really wants a law pass

2145
02:11:43,120 --> 02:11:46,240
Speaker 1: is going to tempt you with all sorts of financial opportunity,

2146
02:11:46,680 --> 02:11:49,880
Speaker 1: and since the government itself isn't giving you hardly any compensation,

2147
02:11:49,960 --> 02:11:52,120
Speaker 1: you might be more you know there to do it. Like,

2148
02:11:52,320 --> 02:11:53,920
Speaker 1: let me put it in another way. Imagine if we

2149
02:11:54,000 --> 02:11:58,440
Speaker 1: had college basketball referees that weren't paid for. Oh wait,

2150
02:11:58,480 --> 02:12:00,640
Speaker 1: we do have this, right, What would there incentive be

2151
02:12:01,080 --> 02:12:03,520
Speaker 1: if some big gambler came to you with a big

2152
02:12:03,560 --> 02:12:07,000
Speaker 1: proposal for anyway. You see my point? Right, when you

2153
02:12:07,040 --> 02:12:13,600
Speaker 1: don't pay people enough, you potentially incentivize corruptibility. Right, not

2154
02:12:13,680 --> 02:12:18,120
Speaker 1: everybody starts as corrupt, but sadly we're human beings and

2155
02:12:18,160 --> 02:12:21,440
Speaker 1: everybody has a price eventually, and everybody has a circumstance

2156
02:12:21,440 --> 02:12:24,320
Speaker 1: where suddenly they have a price. So, you know, everybody

2157
02:12:24,320 --> 02:12:29,600
Speaker 1: who thinks that they're morally perfect, I would digress. I

2158
02:12:29,640 --> 02:12:32,840
Speaker 1: think the fact that members of Congress are getting paid

2159
02:12:33,040 --> 02:12:35,360
Speaker 1: and the staff is getting you know, that's what you do.

2160
02:12:35,880 --> 02:12:38,160
Speaker 1: I think you're right. I would throw staff in there too.

2161
02:12:38,400 --> 02:12:40,720
Speaker 1: And you say it's not fair, Well, they're political staff.

2162
02:12:41,920 --> 02:12:44,240
Speaker 1: They know what they're signing up for, and they're advising

2163
02:12:44,280 --> 02:12:49,080
Speaker 1: these members of Congress. So if you did that, and

2164
02:12:49,160 --> 02:12:54,600
Speaker 1: I think you know they're there, I I endorse it

2165
02:12:54,600 --> 02:12:58,480
Speaker 1: makes sense to me. I mean, these TSA agents, what

2166
02:12:58,480 --> 02:13:01,840
Speaker 1: we're doing to them, you know the unintended here's your

2167
02:13:01,920 --> 02:13:04,720
Speaker 1: unintended consequence with what we keep doing to TSA agents.

2168
02:13:05,560 --> 02:13:08,920
Speaker 1: Why is that a safe job anymore? Who's gonna want

2169
02:13:08,960 --> 02:13:12,240
Speaker 1: to like suddenly you've got to it. At best, you

2170
02:13:12,280 --> 02:13:13,960
Speaker 1: better hope you have a spouse who has a steady

2171
02:13:14,000 --> 02:13:21,080
Speaker 1: or paycheck. It's so I I uh, it's certainly logical

2172
02:13:21,080 --> 02:13:25,440
Speaker 1: to me. I go back to it. Should we shouldn't

2173
02:13:25,920 --> 02:13:30,040
Speaker 1: be allowed to it shouldn't. This isn't the way we

2174
02:13:30,040 --> 02:13:32,920
Speaker 1: should shut government down, right, There's got to be another

2175
02:13:33,000 --> 02:13:37,800
Speaker 1: way to resolve this. But simply stopping a functionality of

2176
02:13:37,840 --> 02:13:41,720
Speaker 1: government that has already been agreed to for this fiscal year,

2177
02:13:41,720 --> 02:13:45,800
Speaker 1: because usually we're arguing about the next fiscal year seems

2178
02:13:45,840 --> 02:13:53,000
Speaker 1: to be seems to be problematic. But look, it's until

2179
02:13:53,040 --> 02:13:56,120
Speaker 1: we come up with them better. You know, everything is

2180
02:13:56,120 --> 02:13:58,440
Speaker 1: a bad incentives. If you have good incentives, you'll get

2181
02:13:58,440 --> 02:14:00,720
Speaker 1: good outcomes. If you have bad incentives, you'll bad outcomes.

2182
02:14:00,720 --> 02:14:02,960
Speaker 1: And right now we have bad incentives when it comes

2183
02:14:03,000 --> 02:14:11,560
Speaker 1: to the operation of government. Next question comes from Jack

2184
02:14:11,640 --> 02:14:13,840
Speaker 1: Why and he writes, Hey, I absolutely wish I could

2185
02:14:13,840 --> 02:14:15,920
Speaker 1: spend an hour a day listening to Rama Manuel. That

2186
02:14:15,960 --> 02:14:17,480
Speaker 1: guy is so smart and would be a great leader

2187
02:14:17,520 --> 02:14:19,280
Speaker 1: for the country. Your interview with him made me so

2188
02:14:19,360 --> 02:14:21,360
Speaker 1: nostalgic for the Obama years, when the intellect of the

2189
02:14:21,400 --> 02:14:25,080
Speaker 1: administration did not require affirmation. It was simply understood. The

2190
02:14:25,120 --> 02:14:27,760
Speaker 1: true leadership that is demonstrated with their humble and educated

2191
02:14:27,760 --> 02:14:29,880
Speaker 1: approach to governing with a focus on the American people

2192
02:14:29,880 --> 02:14:34,200
Speaker 1: is something we should all be pining for. I know,

2193
02:14:34,280 --> 02:14:36,160
Speaker 1: I am. It is good in my opinion that he

2194
02:14:36,200 --> 02:14:37,920
Speaker 1: is flying under the radar. Thanks for having him on

2195
02:14:37,920 --> 02:14:40,080
Speaker 1: your podcast, listening to him as time well spent. I

2196
02:14:40,120 --> 02:14:41,920
Speaker 1: was nodding in an agreement so often that I got

2197
02:14:42,120 --> 02:14:44,600
Speaker 1: a crick in my neck. Love the podcast and substack

2198
02:14:44,640 --> 02:14:47,720
Speaker 1: way more than the corporate media shackles you were once

2199
02:14:47,760 --> 02:14:50,240
Speaker 1: died to independent news and political media. It is far superior.

2200
02:14:50,400 --> 02:14:53,000
Speaker 1: Le Chezer. If you know you know best regards Jack,

2201
02:14:53,000 --> 02:14:56,680
Speaker 1: Why I appreciate that. Look, you know it's funny. It's

2202
02:14:56,680 --> 02:14:59,560
Speaker 1: like I sit here, I've gotten a ton of positive

2203
02:14:59,560 --> 02:15:02,920
Speaker 1: feedback about Ram from people that didn't know they were

2204
02:15:02,920 --> 02:15:06,480
Speaker 1: going to have positive feedback about Rom. I think I

2205
02:15:06,520 --> 02:15:09,880
Speaker 1: think it is Look, I've known this version of Ram

2206
02:15:09,920 --> 02:15:13,040
Speaker 1: a long time. But at the same time, I also

2207
02:15:13,080 --> 02:15:16,280
Speaker 1: think this is why experience counts. I think there was

2208
02:15:16,320 --> 02:15:18,480
Speaker 1: a time in Ram's political life that he was a

2209
02:15:18,480 --> 02:15:22,000
Speaker 1: little too quick with a belief or a or a

2210
02:15:22,040 --> 02:15:27,520
Speaker 1: proclamation or an answer. But his instincts have always been

2211
02:15:27,840 --> 02:15:31,440
Speaker 1: sort of ultimately public first, and you know, you know

2212
02:15:31,560 --> 02:15:37,400
Speaker 1: it is so I look at rom I think he

2213
02:15:37,480 --> 02:15:40,760
Speaker 1: is speaking to the problems that I hope more candidates

2214
02:15:40,760 --> 02:15:45,720
Speaker 1: speak to. And I'm also equally skeptical that, unfortunately, in

2215
02:15:45,760 --> 02:15:50,160
Speaker 1: this anti establishment mood that both parties are in, he

2216
02:15:50,360 --> 02:15:54,440
Speaker 1: probably has too many ties to quote establishment figures to

2217
02:15:54,600 --> 02:15:59,520
Speaker 1: break through. But I hope people are paying attention to

2218
02:15:59,600 --> 02:16:03,520
Speaker 1: what he's saying because he is. I feel like he's

2219
02:16:03,680 --> 02:16:06,280
Speaker 1: actually trying to respond to what the voters have been

2220
02:16:06,280 --> 02:16:11,640
Speaker 1: screaming here about for the last twenty years. All right,

2221
02:16:11,640 --> 02:16:14,640
Speaker 1: next question, We'll make this the last one today. Number

2222
02:16:14,640 --> 02:16:16,640
Speaker 1: five here on the list. I've gone deep with you today.

2223
02:16:16,640 --> 02:16:18,200
Speaker 1: It's a holiday. We'll go number five here and he

2224
02:16:18,200 --> 02:16:21,000
Speaker 1: goes Hey. Most listeners are familiar with discussion on Trump

2225
02:16:21,040 --> 02:16:23,800
Speaker 1: presidential impeachments, as we experienced a pair of those in

2226
02:16:24,080 --> 02:16:26,520
Speaker 1: President forty five's term. How about the likes of RFK

2227
02:16:26,640 --> 02:16:29,080
Speaker 1: Junior and Pambondi? What is the criteria for impeachment of

2228
02:16:29,120 --> 02:16:31,520
Speaker 1: these cabinet members? Thanks, Chuck? Who is your favorite football

2229
02:16:31,520 --> 02:16:36,080
Speaker 1: baseball players as a kid, By the way, Jim from Tobahana, Pennsylvania, Well,

2230
02:16:36,160 --> 02:16:38,800
Speaker 1: let me get it. Look, the impeachment is the same thing.

2231
02:16:38,840 --> 02:16:42,320
Speaker 1: I mean, you can impeach. Ali Mayorcus was impeached by

2232
02:16:42,360 --> 02:16:45,600
Speaker 1: the Republican House. And one of the reminders is what's

2233
02:16:45,600 --> 02:16:47,640
Speaker 1: an impeachable offense. Whatever a majority of the House of

2234
02:16:47,680 --> 02:16:50,920
Speaker 1: Representatives decides it is. They are essentially a grand jury here.

2235
02:16:50,959 --> 02:16:53,279
Speaker 1: If they bring him articles of impeachment and a majority

2236
02:16:53,320 --> 02:16:56,960
Speaker 1: approve them, then they then said official has been indicted,

2237
02:16:57,520 --> 02:16:59,640
Speaker 1: all right, and then the Senate has to do a trial.

2238
02:17:00,080 --> 02:17:02,520
Speaker 1: And we you know, there's multiple Senate trials have taken

2239
02:17:02,560 --> 02:17:05,520
Speaker 1: place over the years for judges and for other things,

2240
02:17:05,520 --> 02:17:08,840
Speaker 1: but usually at a cabinet secretary when it reaches impeachment stage,

2241
02:17:09,240 --> 02:17:12,959
Speaker 1: usually that cabinet secretary is more likely to resign. In

2242
02:17:13,000 --> 02:17:15,320
Speaker 1: the Mayorka's case, it didn't because the Senate I think

2243
02:17:15,400 --> 02:17:17,800
Speaker 1: was controlled by you know, there was enough control by

2244
02:17:17,840 --> 02:17:20,640
Speaker 1: the Democrats where they could just refuse a trial or

2245
02:17:20,680 --> 02:17:23,879
Speaker 1: just sort of do a quick trial, you know type

2246
02:17:23,879 --> 02:17:26,519
Speaker 1: of thing. And I think at the time the Democrats

2247
02:17:26,520 --> 02:17:32,240
Speaker 1: control the floor and they can make that easy. So

2248
02:17:32,240 --> 02:17:34,240
Speaker 1: so ultimately it's the same, but it would take a

2249
02:17:34,280 --> 02:17:38,199
Speaker 1: majority in this case, right, you have a Republican House, yeah,

2250
02:17:38,240 --> 02:17:43,160
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe you'd have impeachment discharge petitions and you

2251
02:17:43,200 --> 02:17:46,000
Speaker 1: could get a couple on Bondy at this point, but

2252
02:17:46,080 --> 02:17:49,240
Speaker 1: if you got there, she probably resigns before they go

2253
02:17:49,280 --> 02:17:53,760
Speaker 1: through the trial itself. So that's usually why with political

2254
02:17:53,800 --> 02:17:56,800
Speaker 1: appointees like that. You know, we've had an occasional federal

2255
02:17:56,879 --> 02:18:00,000
Speaker 1: judge impeachment trial. You know, even a conviction. I believe

2256
02:18:00,040 --> 02:18:04,640
Speaker 1: Elsie Hastings later would become a member of Congress. I

2257
02:18:04,680 --> 02:18:08,240
Speaker 1: believe was you know, lost his judge ship during an

2258
02:18:08,280 --> 02:18:11,680
Speaker 1: impeachment process. So there's no the criteria is no different.

2259
02:18:13,200 --> 02:18:15,760
Speaker 1: It's just usually it never happens with a cabinet secretary

2260
02:18:15,800 --> 02:18:17,800
Speaker 1: because by the time you get to the point where

2261
02:18:18,560 --> 02:18:22,720
Speaker 1: the House can can pass articles of impeachment on a

2262
02:18:22,720 --> 02:18:27,400
Speaker 1: cabinet secretary, a normal acting president listens to the public

2263
02:18:27,520 --> 02:18:30,760
Speaker 1: and decides to call for the resignation and move on.

2264
02:18:31,400 --> 02:18:33,360
Speaker 1: And by the way, this gets it something here with

2265
02:18:33,440 --> 02:18:37,879
Speaker 1: Nome or Bondi or RFK Junior, but really Noman Bondi,

2266
02:18:38,320 --> 02:18:40,520
Speaker 1: let's say either one of them are fired or resign,

2267
02:18:41,480 --> 02:18:43,840
Speaker 1: he will appoint an acting and how long will he

2268
02:18:43,879 --> 02:18:46,959
Speaker 1: stick to the acting? Just something to keep in mind,

2269
02:18:47,480 --> 02:18:49,320
Speaker 1: and I'm not sure that's something everybody wants to have.

2270
02:18:49,959 --> 02:18:52,720
Speaker 1: You were asking, who's my favorite football baseball players as

2271
02:18:52,840 --> 02:18:56,920
Speaker 1: a kid, well, number one my favorite baseball player Steve Garvey,

2272
02:18:57,080 --> 02:19:01,480
Speaker 1: and my parents encouraged it until they did, meaning like

2273
02:19:01,560 --> 02:19:04,000
Speaker 1: Steve Garvey was my favorite, you know, starting in linked

2274
02:19:04,040 --> 02:19:07,280
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy eight seventy nine eighty, I collected every one

2275
02:19:07,280 --> 02:19:10,640
Speaker 1: of his baseball cards. That was the first big collection

2276
02:19:10,720 --> 02:19:13,440
Speaker 1: I did, is I wanted every year every card ever

2277
02:19:13,480 --> 02:19:18,320
Speaker 1: produced of there from and I even like included OPG,

2278
02:19:18,520 --> 02:19:22,119
Speaker 1: which was the Canadian version of TOPS. They basically used

2279
02:19:22,160 --> 02:19:26,200
Speaker 1: whatever the TOPS design was and then smacked it with

2280
02:19:26,240 --> 02:19:28,840
Speaker 1: the OPG label in the back. I think that's how

2281
02:19:28,879 --> 02:19:30,920
Speaker 1: their relationship with TOPS must have worked. So it was

2282
02:19:30,959 --> 02:19:34,959
Speaker 1: some sort of design licensing agreement or something. And it

2283
02:19:35,000 --> 02:19:36,920
Speaker 1: was the first time I ever spent one hundred dollars

2284
02:19:36,959 --> 02:19:42,600
Speaker 1: on any card ever, was for Garvey's rookie So Steve

2285
02:19:42,640 --> 02:19:48,600
Speaker 1: Garvey was my favorite, my favorite baseball player on the

2286
02:19:48,640 --> 02:19:53,920
Speaker 1: football front, you know, it was my dad made me

2287
02:19:54,000 --> 02:19:56,320
Speaker 1: a Packer fan. I always say made me a Packer fan.

2288
02:19:56,360 --> 02:19:58,160
Speaker 1: It's like I just didn't really have a choice. Right

2289
02:19:59,280 --> 02:20:01,040
Speaker 1: very early, like two of the first football books I

2290
02:20:01,040 --> 02:20:03,520
Speaker 1: ever read, one was Run to Daylight by Vince Labardey.

2291
02:20:03,560 --> 02:20:05,959
Speaker 1: The other Wood was instant replayed by Jerry Kramer and

2292
02:20:06,000 --> 02:20:10,720
Speaker 1: Dick Shapp, So I was definitely brainwashed correctly when it

2293
02:20:10,760 --> 02:20:13,480
Speaker 1: came to the Packers lore and all of that. By

2294
02:20:13,520 --> 02:20:15,160
Speaker 1: the way, going to Garvey, and I know I sort

2295
02:20:15,200 --> 02:20:19,720
Speaker 1: of left out the Garvey part, you know, when when

2296
02:20:19,760 --> 02:20:22,240
Speaker 1: Garvey became a punchline like i'll I think it was

2297
02:20:22,280 --> 02:20:25,360
Speaker 1: a Johnny Carson joke, and I remember being so crestfallen

2298
02:20:25,800 --> 02:20:28,120
Speaker 1: it was a hank of Steve Garvey's your dad. You know.

2299
02:20:28,160 --> 02:20:31,520
Speaker 1: There was all this talk about Garvey and you know,

2300
02:20:31,560 --> 02:20:34,680
Speaker 1: he cheated on Cindy Garvey, beloved Cindy Garvey, who was

2301
02:20:34,720 --> 02:20:36,400
Speaker 1: I think a co host of a TV show called

2302
02:20:36,440 --> 02:20:39,320
Speaker 1: That's Incredible with a guy named John Davidson, if I

2303
02:20:39,360 --> 02:20:42,519
Speaker 1: have that correct, and That's Incredible. It was just basically

2304
02:20:43,120 --> 02:20:45,760
Speaker 1: reality shows before we knew what reality shows were. It

2305
02:20:45,879 --> 02:20:49,560
Speaker 1: was like crazy things people Now they call it America's

2306
02:20:49,600 --> 02:20:52,240
Speaker 1: Got Talent or all sorts of you know stuff, But

2307
02:20:52,280 --> 02:20:54,760
Speaker 1: back then we didn't call them reality shows. We called them,

2308
02:20:55,040 --> 02:20:57,600
Speaker 1: you know, they were kind of magazine shows meets goofy

2309
02:20:57,680 --> 02:21:02,320
Speaker 1: viral moments. So That's Incredible was one of those types

2310
02:21:02,360 --> 02:21:05,320
Speaker 1: of shows. I think it was an ABC show, but

2311
02:21:05,400 --> 02:21:07,440
Speaker 1: it was a big deal that Steve Garvey cheated on

2312
02:21:07,560 --> 02:21:10,600
Speaker 1: his equally famous wife. She got that job because she

2313
02:21:10,640 --> 02:21:13,480
Speaker 1: was Steve. Some people assumed because she was Steve, you know,

2314
02:21:13,560 --> 02:21:15,959
Speaker 1: married to a you know, a popular baseball player in

2315
02:21:16,120 --> 02:21:18,400
Speaker 1: la U, namely Steve Garvey. So anyway, I was a

2316
02:21:18,440 --> 02:21:21,879
Speaker 1: Garvey guy. I still believe Garvey has a Hall of

2317
02:21:22,000 --> 02:21:25,959
Speaker 1: you know is. I think the only reason he's not

2318
02:21:26,000 --> 02:21:29,280
Speaker 1: in the Hall is due to the the disappointment a

2319
02:21:29,320 --> 02:21:31,280
Speaker 1: lot of people felt, because I think he was seen

2320
02:21:31,280 --> 02:21:33,680
Speaker 1: as I mean, he was a role model that my

2321
02:21:33,760 --> 02:21:36,080
Speaker 1: parents wanted me to follow. He had this great mythology

2322
02:21:36,120 --> 02:21:38,240
Speaker 1: about his you know, his father drove the team bus

2323
02:21:38,240 --> 02:21:40,119
Speaker 1: for the Dodgers, and he was this, you know, mister

2324
02:21:40,160 --> 02:21:42,680
Speaker 1: perfect and all that stuff. So there was this lore

2325
02:21:42,760 --> 02:21:44,560
Speaker 1: about Garvey, and I think my parents thought he was

2326
02:21:44,600 --> 02:21:47,080
Speaker 1: a terrific role model. And then the whole thing happened,

2327
02:21:47,080 --> 02:21:50,000
Speaker 1: and then I think that back then we realized, we

2328
02:21:50,040 --> 02:21:52,400
Speaker 1: would realize a few years later that Charles Barkley was right.

2329
02:21:52,440 --> 02:21:55,920
Speaker 1: No athlete is, you know, should be a pr perfect

2330
02:21:56,000 --> 02:21:59,440
Speaker 1: role model for everybody. But going back to the football front,

2331
02:21:59,480 --> 02:22:02,440
Speaker 1: so basically, they made my players, my favorite players were

2332
02:22:02,480 --> 02:22:06,160
Speaker 1: always Garvage where somebody were derivative of the Packers or

2333
02:22:06,240 --> 02:22:10,199
Speaker 1: derivative of the Hurricanes. So Jim Kelly because of the Hurricanes.

2334
02:22:10,240 --> 02:22:12,520
Speaker 1: So I always he's one of my all time favorites,

2335
02:22:12,840 --> 02:22:16,320
Speaker 1: the first great quarterback for Miami. And you know, I'm

2336
02:22:16,440 --> 02:22:18,120
Speaker 1: I'm sorry he never got a Super Bowl win, but

2337
02:22:18,160 --> 02:22:21,840
Speaker 1: he's you know, he's probably the greatest quarterback never to

2338
02:22:21,879 --> 02:22:24,600
Speaker 1: get a Super Bowl. I know you're supposed to say

2339
02:22:24,720 --> 02:22:28,560
Speaker 1: Dan Marino. I think the fact that Kelly got there

2340
02:22:28,600 --> 02:22:32,720
Speaker 1: four times puts him ahead of Marino any any And

2341
02:22:32,760 --> 02:22:37,800
Speaker 1: he was the he helped implement essentially the modernization of

2342
02:22:37,800 --> 02:22:41,600
Speaker 1: the you know, the offenses we see today in some ways,

2343
02:22:41,760 --> 02:22:43,880
Speaker 1: you know, you could you could say that Kelly and

2344
02:22:43,920 --> 02:22:47,680
Speaker 1: the k gun offense or the or the the the

2345
02:22:47,680 --> 02:22:53,920
Speaker 1: the og of that there. And then James Lofton because

2346
02:22:53,920 --> 02:22:55,880
Speaker 1: he was the best Packer at the time. When I

2347
02:22:55,959 --> 02:23:01,520
Speaker 1: was a kid, I loved Eddie Lee Ivory. I love

2348
02:23:01,600 --> 02:23:06,400
Speaker 1: lind Dicky. I still do. You know, it's funny with

2349
02:23:06,440 --> 02:23:11,040
Speaker 1: the Packers quarterbacks because they've you know, both Farv and Rogers.

2350
02:23:11,080 --> 02:23:12,720
Speaker 1: And you know, this is the thing, like a lot

2351
02:23:12,720 --> 02:23:16,120
Speaker 1: of my favorite players, their off field behavior makes it

2352
02:23:16,240 --> 02:23:19,000
Speaker 1: harder to sort of root for them off the field

2353
02:23:19,040 --> 02:23:22,080
Speaker 1: as much as you reform on the field. And you know,

2354
02:23:22,120 --> 02:23:25,039
Speaker 1: I go back and forth, but I compartmentalize Aaron Rodgers.

2355
02:23:25,040 --> 02:23:26,320
Speaker 1: I still wanted to go into the Hall of Fame

2356
02:23:26,360 --> 02:23:28,200
Speaker 1: as a packer. He still did a lot of good

2357
02:23:28,200 --> 02:23:31,000
Speaker 1: for the packers, and so I do kind of try

2358
02:23:31,000 --> 02:23:34,760
Speaker 1: to compartmentalize these things. But some things you don't, you know,

2359
02:23:34,840 --> 02:23:39,840
Speaker 1: I don't like, you know, whatever, you know, the whole

2360
02:23:39,879 --> 02:23:43,480
Speaker 1: farv story. I vacillate on that one. I think some

2361
02:23:43,520 --> 02:23:46,160
Speaker 1: people took advantage of him, and at the same time,

2362
02:23:47,360 --> 02:23:52,520
Speaker 1: you know, ignorance is no excuse either. I think he

2363
02:23:52,560 --> 02:23:55,879
Speaker 1: should have been understood more what people were using his

2364
02:23:56,000 --> 02:23:58,800
Speaker 1: name to do and then what he thought. Anyway, there's

2365
02:23:58,840 --> 02:24:03,360
Speaker 1: a lot I think there's nuanced to the story on that.

2366
02:24:04,320 --> 02:24:08,120
Speaker 1: But yeah, I've had I've had my share of and

2367
02:24:08,160 --> 02:24:11,400
Speaker 1: there's certain hurricanes that have some controversial off field issues

2368
02:24:11,440 --> 02:24:18,000
Speaker 1: that yet I still will we'll compartmentalize about you know,

2369
02:24:18,040 --> 02:24:22,080
Speaker 1: whether it's Michael Irvin or Ray Lewis on that front. Either.

2370
02:24:23,920 --> 02:24:29,879
Speaker 1: So uh So, there you have it. I hope I'm

2371
02:24:29,920 --> 02:24:31,640
Speaker 1: getting as you could tell. I think I gave you

2372
02:24:31,680 --> 02:24:34,200
Speaker 1: an honest answer the right. The easy answer would have

2373
02:24:34,200 --> 02:24:37,080
Speaker 1: been to say somebody like Johnny Bench, right, or Sandy

2374
02:24:37,120 --> 02:24:40,480
Speaker 1: Kofax or whatever. I love Fernando too. First autograph I

2375
02:24:40,520 --> 02:24:44,160
Speaker 1: ever got from a baseball player was Fernando Allenzolla at

2376
02:24:44,400 --> 02:24:49,400
Speaker 1: Vero Beach in Dodger Town. All right, Well we ended

2377
02:24:49,400 --> 02:24:52,440
Speaker 1: with a sports question, so I'll just leave it there.

2378
02:24:54,040 --> 02:24:56,560
Speaker 1: Once again, the NBA still has an All Star Game

2379
02:24:56,560 --> 02:25:00,600
Speaker 1: interest issue. Let me just leave you with a thought,

2380
02:25:01,200 --> 02:25:02,840
Speaker 1: and for those of you that want to follow up,

2381
02:25:02,879 --> 02:25:05,560
Speaker 1: I'd love follow up questions on it. Which is the

2382
02:25:05,640 --> 02:25:07,920
Speaker 1: reason the players and the NBA took the All Star

2383
02:25:07,959 --> 02:25:10,760
Speaker 1: Game seriously in the sixties, seventies, eighties, and even to

2384
02:25:10,760 --> 02:25:14,320
Speaker 1: a lesser extent than nineties, was because the bonus you

2385
02:25:14,440 --> 02:25:17,640
Speaker 1: got for being an All Star, in comparison to the

2386
02:25:17,720 --> 02:25:20,920
Speaker 1: salary was was sort of it was probably somewhere between

2387
02:25:21,040 --> 02:25:24,039
Speaker 1: five and ten percent of your overall year salary was

2388
02:25:24,080 --> 02:25:25,760
Speaker 1: this bonus. And if you can get a five or

2389
02:25:25,760 --> 02:25:31,720
Speaker 1: ten percent extra amount of money, that's motivation. Now you're

2390
02:25:31,760 --> 02:25:34,360
Speaker 1: looking at best, it's somewhere between a half a percent

2391
02:25:34,400 --> 02:25:37,480
Speaker 1: and a percent of what your yearly salary is. And

2392
02:25:37,520 --> 02:25:41,440
Speaker 1: so I think that there's just look, as my friend

2393
02:25:41,480 --> 02:25:43,440
Speaker 1: Tony Cornheis likes to say, the answer to all your

2394
02:25:43,440 --> 02:25:47,000
Speaker 1: problems is money. How can they create a different financial

2395
02:25:47,040 --> 02:25:49,640
Speaker 1: incentive for the players to get in the All Star

2396
02:25:49,680 --> 02:25:55,199
Speaker 1: Game and a different financial incentive for players to play

2397
02:25:56,400 --> 02:25:59,240
Speaker 1: to not deal with load management a different fact? You know?

2398
02:25:59,320 --> 02:26:05,480
Speaker 1: So it is ultimately right, good incentives you get good outcomes.

2399
02:26:05,520 --> 02:26:08,400
Speaker 1: Bad incentives you get bad outcomes. There are some bad

2400
02:26:08,440 --> 02:26:13,080
Speaker 1: incentives that have been created in the NBA with tanking

2401
02:26:13,360 --> 02:26:16,560
Speaker 1: with our All Star Game participation. So tweak the incentives.

2402
02:26:16,600 --> 02:26:19,119
Speaker 1: That's where you got to go. Is it more money

2403
02:26:19,160 --> 02:26:23,480
Speaker 1: at the line on the line? You know? Do you

2404
02:26:23,520 --> 02:26:28,840
Speaker 1: make it a truly elite status? Does All Star Game

2405
02:26:28,920 --> 02:26:32,760
Speaker 1: participation get tied to Hall of Fame consideration? Right? You know,

2406
02:26:33,080 --> 02:26:39,040
Speaker 1: there's all sorts of things you could potentially create. You

2407
02:26:39,120 --> 02:26:41,040
Speaker 1: just have to You just have to choose to really

2408
02:26:41,080 --> 02:26:42,360
Speaker 1: want to. And you got to ask yourself what do

2409
02:26:42,360 --> 02:26:44,480
Speaker 1: you want out of your all start weekend? You know?

2410
02:26:44,600 --> 02:26:47,320
Speaker 1: I think the fact is the three point contest continues

2411
02:26:47,320 --> 02:26:50,200
Speaker 1: to be the one contest that even the best want

2412
02:26:50,200 --> 02:26:54,880
Speaker 1: to participate in it. So come up with other skills.

2413
02:26:55,160 --> 02:26:58,039
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll tell you what could be fun is

2414
02:26:58,360 --> 02:27:00,720
Speaker 1: you know, I'd like to see more free throw shooting

2415
02:27:00,760 --> 02:27:05,000
Speaker 1: contests where you did speed free throws or something like that.

2416
02:27:05,120 --> 02:27:08,680
Speaker 1: You could perhaps do more skills if you want to,

2417
02:27:08,959 --> 02:27:13,880
Speaker 1: you know, continue to have this. You know, you could

2418
02:27:13,879 --> 02:27:16,200
Speaker 1: turn the All Star weekend into a big tournament. Again.

2419
02:27:17,000 --> 02:27:21,360
Speaker 1: That again huge compensation for it, the way they did

2420
02:27:21,400 --> 02:27:25,360
Speaker 1: with the NBA Cup, Right, players, the incentive is big

2421
02:27:25,480 --> 02:27:28,160
Speaker 1: enough that it has caused teams to really want to

2422
02:27:29,520 --> 02:27:31,640
Speaker 1: play hard during the NBA Cup games in the early

2423
02:27:31,640 --> 02:27:34,280
Speaker 1: part of the season. So ultimately, that's what you do, right,

2424
02:27:34,320 --> 02:27:37,120
Speaker 1: You examine and you find out where are your weak spots.

2425
02:27:37,680 --> 02:27:39,720
Speaker 1: You know, I'll close with this, why did you know

2426
02:27:39,760 --> 02:27:42,959
Speaker 1: it's February slowest sports month on the calendar, Although I'd

2427
02:27:43,000 --> 02:27:47,040
Speaker 1: argue with Winter Olympics, Daytona five hundred, this week you

2428
02:27:47,160 --> 02:27:50,600
Speaker 1: got increasingly interesting college basketball, et cetera, et cetera, that

2429
02:27:50,720 --> 02:27:54,480
Speaker 1: February has certainly been fairly busy. But you know, Sports

2430
02:27:54,520 --> 02:27:57,000
Speaker 1: Illustrated came up with the swimsuit issue when they looked

2431
02:27:57,000 --> 02:27:59,120
Speaker 1: at their new stand sales and realized their slowest news

2432
02:27:59,120 --> 02:28:01,840
Speaker 1: stand sales was in the mid to late part of February.

2433
02:28:02,040 --> 02:28:04,279
Speaker 1: So they said what's a way to increase our newsstand

2434
02:28:04,320 --> 02:28:06,760
Speaker 1: sales in February? Right, And so that's what they did

2435
02:28:07,040 --> 02:28:09,160
Speaker 1: the NBA. Why did they come up with the NBA Cup?

2436
02:28:09,200 --> 02:28:10,920
Speaker 1: They look, boy, we got a lot of we don't

2437
02:28:10,920 --> 02:28:13,039
Speaker 1: have it. Nobody pays attention to the first part of

2438
02:28:13,040 --> 02:28:16,080
Speaker 1: the regular season while the NFL is in session. What

2439
02:28:16,120 --> 02:28:18,879
Speaker 1: do we do to create more something more interesting? While

2440
02:28:18,879 --> 02:28:21,840
Speaker 1: they came up in the NBA Cup. So that's how

2441
02:28:22,440 --> 02:28:25,800
Speaker 1: these problems can be tackled, should be looked at, right,

2442
02:28:25,920 --> 02:28:28,600
Speaker 1: And it's you know, take the take the biggest loophole,

2443
02:28:28,640 --> 02:28:31,120
Speaker 1: the biggest problem, the biggest issue, and then come up

2444
02:28:31,160 --> 02:28:35,560
Speaker 1: with incentive structures that actually make it far more interesting,

2445
02:28:37,480 --> 02:28:43,240
Speaker 1: far more useful, right, and go from there. All right,

2446
02:28:44,360 --> 02:28:46,240
Speaker 1: I'll throw that out there. I'd love to hear from you,

2447
02:28:46,440 --> 02:28:49,360
Speaker 1: my sports nuts that listen to this ideas you have

2448
02:28:49,760 --> 02:28:53,160
Speaker 1: fixing NBA All Star weekend? What would you do? What

2449
02:28:53,200 --> 02:28:58,040
Speaker 1: are what are some ideas out there? You know, my

2450
02:28:58,080 --> 02:29:02,000
Speaker 1: buddy Bill Simmons can't just corner them mark on crazy ideas, right,

2451
02:29:02,120 --> 02:29:04,360
Speaker 1: the rest of us want to participate in the crazy idea,

2452
02:29:05,320 --> 02:29:12,200
Speaker 1: half baked idea genre that he is frankly executed. So

2453
02:29:12,280 --> 02:29:15,320
Speaker 1: well over the years. All right, with that, I will

2454
02:29:16,760 --> 02:29:20,320
Speaker 1: call it a podcast for this Monday President's Day. Episode.

2455
02:29:21,360 --> 02:29:23,240
Speaker 1: Gave you a lot to chew on today, a lot

2456
02:29:23,280 --> 02:29:26,480
Speaker 1: of little history to tag out and from there and

2457
02:29:26,520 --> 02:29:28,080
Speaker 1: I'll see it, and we'll have a lot more to

2458
02:29:28,080 --> 02:29:29,600
Speaker 1: say in forty eight hours. I'll see that