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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast That action All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing out so spect we're saying.

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Speaker 1: It's a cash touchtop. That's all we see. Most gamble

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Speaker 1: is when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 3: If you want to fall.

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Speaker 1: And we are underways.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Howork Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 3: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I'm joined as always

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Speaker 3: by my better half, the one who's always with me

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Speaker 3: in these types of shows, love them to death. Brandon

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Speaker 3: Anderson for some best bets for NFL Week fourteen. We

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Speaker 3: will get to those bets shortly, but first it's I

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Speaker 3: usually give you multiple trends. Today I'm just gonna give

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Speaker 3: you one fun thing because I think it really sets

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Speaker 3: up the week. Well, it is at the top of

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Speaker 3: my primer, so if you've read it, you're hearing it again.

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Speaker 3: But the story of the twenty twenty five season is

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Speaker 3: simply one word and its parody. Entering Week fourteen, we

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Speaker 3: have seventeen teams listed below fifty to one odds to

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Speaker 3: win the Super Bowl, which is the most we've had

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Speaker 3: for any season dating back to twenty ten. Entering Week fourteen.

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Speaker 3: The previous high was fifteen dating back to twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 3: So I mean, even if you go further, twelve teams

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Speaker 3: at least four games above five hundred, tied for the

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Speaker 3: most in NFL history. All twelve of those teams are

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Speaker 3: also under fifty to one. So right now, it is

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Speaker 3: an absolute mess and probably one of the more fun

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Speaker 3: weekends we have in the NFL schedule that I remember,

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Speaker 3: in terms of just divisional matchups, the meaning of these

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Speaker 3: matchups first place, there's just so much fun stuff on

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Speaker 3: the line. To BA, what do you got to say

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Speaker 3: about any of this?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, seventeen is crazy.

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Speaker 2: That's that's over half the league that still has like

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Speaker 2: a realistic two percent or better shot to win the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl. I know two percent doesn't seem like much,

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Speaker 2: but there really aren't teams that are above like ten

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Speaker 2: percent right now for the most part. So you're right

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Speaker 2: in range there, you're telling me there is a chance

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Speaker 2: basically seventeen. You know, there are only fourteen playoff teams,

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Speaker 2: so there are teams that are a week or two

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Speaker 2: away from suddenly being like nearly eliminated from the playoffs

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Speaker 2: that right now still have real super Bowl hopes at

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Speaker 2: this point, including the Chiefs, who everybody knows about. The Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: they're not even in the playoffs right now. The Lions,

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Speaker 2: who have been favored for much of the season and

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Speaker 2: in the mixed couple years in a row, they're not

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Speaker 2: in the playoffs right now. Like, it's just a mess.

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Speaker 2: We talked about it Sunday night. We had to kind

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Speaker 2: of do the Thanksgiving weekend recap because all three Things

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Speaker 2: Giving games and the Black Friday game saw all the

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Speaker 2: favorites lose. I think that was like four of the

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Speaker 2: six preseason Super Bowl favorites all took the loss. So

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Speaker 2: a lot of that is what's happening. It's keeping some

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Speaker 2: of the underdogs alive. It's keeping those favorites down in

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Speaker 2: the mix so that other teams feel alive. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: this weekend is going to be fun. There are two

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Speaker 2: games between the division first and second place where the

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Speaker 2: division lead us up for grabs. There's another one Sunday Night,

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Speaker 2: Chiefs Texans that is basically a playoff game for the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs at this point. So yeah, there are high stakes

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Speaker 2: here and a lot of leverage, a lot of swings

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Speaker 2: coming for me as a better especially as the future

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Speaker 2: is better. That's exciting. This is opportunity, like the parody

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Speaker 2: equals opportunity because if you can find the right team,

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Speaker 2: if you can find the path, if you can pick

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Speaker 2: the team you like, you're gonna get some longer odds

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Speaker 2: right now that probably wouldn't be there most years where

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Speaker 2: the favorites have separated. So it's exciting. It's fun to

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Speaker 2: be a fan, fun to be a better right now.

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Speaker 3: I mean between the Super Bowl stuff, and we didn't

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Speaker 3: even talk about the awards, Like, everything is really tight

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Speaker 3: with a few weeks to go, so this weekend should

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Speaker 3: decide a lot, including maybe the Heisman Trophy. But that's

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Speaker 3: a different podcast. All right, it is time to get

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Speaker 3: to some NFL Week fourteen best bets. If you want

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Speaker 3: to tail some of these bets, look for the quick

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Speaker 3: siplink in the podcast and video description or go to

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Speaker 3: Action network dot com slash bet now they'll all be

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Speaker 3: listed there like usual. To me, I love that that's

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Speaker 3: the easiest, but you pick your best choice. Let's start

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Speaker 3: with Brandon's Pick six. This is a moneyline parlay of

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Speaker 3: six teams that BA puts on the site every week

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Speaker 3: where you going, what are you doing?

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Speaker 2: This is your best bet?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're back.

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Speaker 2: We didn't have one for Thanksgiving weeks, so we're back

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Speaker 2: this time. All on the main slate on Sunday, three

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Speaker 2: early games, three late games. There are a lot of

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Speaker 2: big favorites. There are a lot of like right around

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Speaker 2: a touchdown favorites. This week I took five of them

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Speaker 2: out of my six, So Seahawks, Bucks, Early, Broncos, Rams,

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Speaker 2: Packers all in the late slate, and then the one

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Speaker 2: shorter favorite Miami on the road against the Jets. We'll

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Speaker 2: get back to that one shortly. So all those touchdown

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Speaker 2: favorites mean this is a pretty good teaser week. Pick

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Speaker 2: the two that you like best out of there, and

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Speaker 2: it's a pretty good teaser spot. Are six together come

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Speaker 2: in around plus four to ten on the parlay at

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Speaker 2: DraftKings And this is tricky week. Like people ask me

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Speaker 2: a lot of times, send me a direct message or

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Speaker 2: hit me up on Twitter, Hey what about this team?

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Speaker 2: Why aren't they in the pick six? Did you think

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Speaker 2: about picking that? Well, just to give an answer to that,

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Speaker 2: I thought about picking everyone, like I looked at every

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Speaker 2: game to narrow it down to six. If a favorite

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Speaker 2: is not in the pick six, you should probably take

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Speaker 2: that as like a at least an orange flag. There's

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Speaker 2: probably a reason I didn't pick that team, and you

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Speaker 2: might find out in the best bets later. This week

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Speaker 2: especially was tricky for me. I Evan, you know, I'm

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Speaker 2: always the big trends guy. You and I both come

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Speaker 2: with the trends. This week, I'm fading a lot of

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Speaker 2: my favorite trends. I'm playing matchups this week, so we'll

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Speaker 2: see tonight. I've got a ton of trends. On the Lions,

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Speaker 2: I'm staying away. I would lean Cowboys. By the time

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Speaker 2: you listen, we'll see how that one looked. Joe Burrow

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Speaker 2: as an underdog a favorite spot on mine. I'm staying away.

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Speaker 2: Jaguars home against the Colts, just like an auto bet

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Speaker 2: most seasons, and then the big one Tomlin versus Harbaugh,

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Speaker 2: and you just take the underdog in the points. I'm

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Speaker 2: not betting any of those things this week. All my

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Speaker 2: favorite trends spots line up, and I'm kind of trusting

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Speaker 2: matchups and going otherwise. We'll see how that turns out.

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Speaker 2: Maybe I should be trusting the trends. We'll get to

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Speaker 2: it in the picks.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, very excited for this weekend, to be honest with you.

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Speaker 3: And the thing that's crazy, like behind the door a

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Speaker 3: little bit here. We're recording this before Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: So the Cowboys are sitting there like eighty to one

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Speaker 3: to win the Super.

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Speaker 1: Bowl at some books.

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Speaker 3: They've got Minnesota at home next week, Like they could

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Speaker 3: just be two and zero add into their list in

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Speaker 3: the next two in these two games and be right

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Speaker 3: in the race. So we will see what happens on

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Speaker 3: Thursday Night Football. But after we just talked about all

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Speaker 3: those amazing divisional matchups, let's of course start with the

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Speaker 3: Dolphins and the Jets. What the heck you doing here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, going Dolphins. There's a reason I threw them into

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Speaker 2: the pick six. And this is the kind of thing

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Speaker 2: I just talked about. This is all about matchups. So

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Speaker 2: Dolphins minus two and a half on the route and look,

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Speaker 2: not a Jets hater. We beat We bet the Jets

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Speaker 2: both the last two weeks. We got our Jets up

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Speaker 2: set last week, just not quite the Alts there. This

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Speaker 2: is all matchupa to me, the Jets are the run

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Speaker 2: heaviest team in the NFL, even with Tyrod Taylor is

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Speaker 2: still lean very strongly that way. That's exactly what Miami's

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Speaker 2: defense wants. Anthony's Weavers defense wants to an invite the run.

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Speaker 2: This is all wrong for the Jets because Miami they've

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Speaker 2: got leftover dudes playing the secondary, like they basically didn't

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Speaker 2: even try when they.

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Speaker 1: Built that part of their roster.

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Speaker 2: This year their thirtieth pass defense by DVA. But they're

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Speaker 2: good against the run. In fact, lately they're great against

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Speaker 2: the run. Last six games, they're the number one DVA

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Speaker 2: run defense, and on the season they're top seven overall

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Speaker 2: there and top seven overall defense last six weeks. So

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Speaker 2: this is not the team you want to be run run,

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Speaker 2: running against, but that is what the Jets are built

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Speaker 2: to do. On the other side, Miami's offense, we kind

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Speaker 2: of just stopped paying attention to this team right like

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Speaker 2: a few months ago, like, oh fire, Mike McDaniel, get

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Speaker 2: them out of here. They kind of rebuilt the offense

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Speaker 2: and they're more of a run heavy team themselves. Eh

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Speaker 2: Chan has been looking great ripping off explosives, and I

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Speaker 2: think there's this offense it's gonna find some movement too.

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Speaker 2: Jets defense bottom five against the run and the pass

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Speaker 2: or the last six games they don't get any pressure.

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Speaker 2: Miami's not good handling pressure, so that's not gonna be

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Speaker 2: a problem. Miami runs the most motion in the league.

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Speaker 2: Of course, that's Mike McDaniel to just get killed on

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Speaker 2: motion and play action. So this just sets up as

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Speaker 2: all the wrong matchups for the Jets. Defense also for

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Speaker 2: them has been way worse at home. I don't really

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Speaker 2: know why, but they're the worst in the league DVA

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Speaker 2: at home this season defensively, and Miami's been better offensively early,

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Speaker 2: so I think they get out ahead and this is

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Speaker 2: the spot where you actually want it back Tua and

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Speaker 2: Mike McDaniel is as a favorite against a bad team,

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Speaker 2: like as a front runner, Miami's pretty good. We just

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Speaker 2: have the bad taste in our mouth from all the

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Speaker 2: times when they've been that and then played a real team. Well,

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Speaker 2: the Jets aren't a real team, so this is a

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Speaker 2: good spot. Miami has won thirteen of sixteen against the Jets,

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Speaker 2: last five games against them, they're averaging almost twenty nine

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Speaker 2: points a game, So I'm gonna take the Dolphins. Look

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Speaker 2: if this gets to three. I did consider a few

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Speaker 2: other angles. I looked at just the team total over

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Speaker 2: twenty one and a half. I wish it was twenty

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Speaker 2: and a half, like one spot lower. Maybe I just

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Speaker 2: like to play a better And if you want to

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Speaker 2: doc second half, Dolphins are three and nine in the

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Speaker 2: second half. The Jets have been a strong closing team.

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Speaker 2: So if you want to just get your money and

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Speaker 2: get out in the first half, play I don't mind that,

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Speaker 2: euser either. I'm just gonna stick it with the fence

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Speaker 2: two and a half points under the key number. I

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Speaker 2: trust Miami to get the job done.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, two is six and zero against the Jets sixteen

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Speaker 3: and eight ATS or c AFC East. He usually performs

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Speaker 3: well in these spots. The one thing I mean, listen

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Speaker 3: outdoors forty degrees. Not usually the situation. I would tell

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Speaker 3: you that you need to take Tua without Tyreek. But

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Speaker 3: I do agree that this spot makes sense. You said it.

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Speaker 3: But Miami first quarter, second quarter, they're fifteen and nine ATS.

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Speaker 1: Third quarter, fourth quarter.

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Speaker 3: Let's see if I can do quick math, they're eight

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Speaker 3: and sixteen or eight and seventeen something like that. So

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Speaker 3: completely exactly the way you did it, and to me

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Speaker 3: that that's the way to go. I mean it's either

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Speaker 3: Miami first half or Miami full game. I think the

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Speaker 3: full game will get there, but we shall see.

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Speaker 2: Right, you can can do Miami halftime full time. Maybe

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Speaker 2: it would be a good way to go as well.

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Speaker 2: And that's another way you might be able to avoid

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Speaker 2: the line entirely and to respond to the outdoor thing,

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Speaker 2: because that did give me a little bit of pause.

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Speaker 2: So I think TUA is one in four in what

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Speaker 2: I call cold weather games in bet labs. I forget

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Speaker 2: the cutoff, but I think it's about forty degrees. Now,

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Speaker 2: that's not great. One in four ats in those games. However,

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Speaker 2: think about who those games are against. They are one

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Speaker 2: of them was in Green Bay, two of them are

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Speaker 2: in Buffalo, there's one in Kansas City. Okay, you're playing

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Speaker 2: Jordan Love and Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and those games, like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna be the worst team and losing those games.

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Speaker 2: Is that TUA sucks in the cold or is that

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Speaker 2: just yeah, those other teams and guys are pretty good.

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Speaker 2: And it's a road game for Miami. This is a

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Speaker 2: road game, but this is not two This is not

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Speaker 2: any of those guys, as Tyrod Taylor. So I did

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Speaker 2: consider that. I'm not comfortable, but I think that's part

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Speaker 2: of why we're getting the line where it is.

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Speaker 1: Too.

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Speaker 2: With Miami that's been the much better team. So I'll

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Speaker 2: stick with Miami on this side. And had to rock

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Speaker 2: the teal Dolphins shirt for it today too.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, to be fair, it's not just two that looks cold.

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Speaker 3: Mike McDaniel looks pretty cold in those temperatures as well.

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Speaker 1: But go Miami.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to our next game.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 3: Again, nothing fantastic, but we're just trying to give you winners. Bucks, Saints,

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Speaker 3: what are you doing there?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a couple of half plays here.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go first half Tampa on this one minus

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Speaker 2: five and a half on the first half line. So

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Speaker 2: this kind of goes well with the last pick. So

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Speaker 2: last week we played Dolphins first half against the Saints.

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Speaker 2: We avoided the second half collapse. We're gonna run it

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Speaker 2: back with the first half play here. We know we've

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Speaker 2: done these stats how many times now with the Saints,

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Speaker 2: They've only covered a one first quarter all season. They're

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Speaker 2: now three and nine ATS in the first half, worse

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Speaker 2: than the NFL. The Bucks are eight and four ATS

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Speaker 2: in the first half and in case you forgot Saints

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Speaker 2: second half eight and four ats. We saw that last week.

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Speaker 2: We got our money. We got out with Mammy. Mammy

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Speaker 2: didn't cover, but they did cover the first half line,

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Speaker 2: so we got that win. That's whe're going here with

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Speaker 2: Tampa as well. We bet this already on the hot

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Speaker 2: read on the under. I do think this is kind

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Speaker 2: of an ugly, low scoring type game. It looks windy

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Speaker 2: and rainy, so again we don't love the highest spread.

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Speaker 2: We're chopping a few points off of what would be

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Speaker 2: eight and a half on the full game, getting under

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Speaker 2: the key number with the first half five and a

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Speaker 2: half here. Saints defen's been pretty good, but lately worse

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Speaker 2: on the road this season, worse early in games, which

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Speaker 2: again fits our first half trend. They're twenty six by

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Speaker 2: DVA first half, fifth in the second half, so we're

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Speaker 2: gonna get our money and get out of there before

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Speaker 2: the defense kicks in. Baki is back, he looked good

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Speaker 2: last week. Chris Godwin is back apparently, Mike Evans is practicing.

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Speaker 2: He's not gonna play this week, but good for Tampa. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I just tried to trust the Bucks here. Kamara is

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Speaker 2: a big loss for the Saints and this one. He's

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Speaker 2: been really good against Tampa in his career, So instead

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Speaker 2: you got Todd Booleves defense at home, Tyler Shock on

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Speaker 2: the road. Chuck's been pretty solid, to be honest, but

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Speaker 2: rookie quarterback on the road against Todd Bowles, I'll feel

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Speaker 2: pretty good about that. Buccaneers have won six of seven

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Speaker 2: against the Saints. If this is a pretty big game

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Speaker 2: for them, even though it's just the Saints. If they

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Speaker 2: win this game, they basically make it so that they

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Speaker 2: can split Carolina the two games they have coming up,

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Speaker 2: and that still wins a division. So they can't lose

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Speaker 2: this one because it's a division game and that messes

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Speaker 2: up all the tie breaks for them.

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Speaker 1: So they got to do it.

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Speaker 2: They're going to have to pay attention. And I do

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Speaker 2: think grab this one now. At five and a half,

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Speaker 2: I think the line will rise. It's eight and a

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Speaker 2: half full game. Teaser protection probably pushes that to nine

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Speaker 2: to nine and a half, and that might push the

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Speaker 2: first half lineup as well, So Bucks first half minus

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Speaker 2: five and a half while it's still below that six

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Speaker 2: to seven range, I see it at.

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Speaker 1: Four and a half at some spots with a little

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Speaker 1: bit of juice.

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Speaker 3: Do you prefer that or do you want to take

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Speaker 3: away the juice at under five at five and a half,

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Speaker 3: still under a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it probably depends on the juice. I'm not too

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Speaker 2: worried about something landing on five. That doesn't seem like

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Speaker 2: a number that's gonna stick out too much to me

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Speaker 2: in a first half angle. So yeah, I think I

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Speaker 2: would not mind if it's a significant difference. I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: mind having to risk it landing on five to avoid that.

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Speaker 2: So check your book. Take the better number how you

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Speaker 2: like it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. The only other thing I was considering here, and

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Speaker 3: you had talked about the Saints past defense gives me

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Speaker 3: like a little bit of pause. But again, so many

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Speaker 3: targets on Tampa side. Even getting some people back from

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Speaker 3: injury feels right. I was considering first quarter under seven

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Speaker 3: and a half. Like both these defenses pretty decent. I

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Speaker 3: could see a few punts to start the game. Like

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Speaker 3: these teams also played. I believe a really low scoring

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Speaker 3: game a few weeks ago. Like I completely am on

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Speaker 3: the track, and that's why we liked the total when

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Speaker 3: we talked about it. I don't know a week ago

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Speaker 3: or so, so I see the path there, Like I

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Speaker 3: honestly almost see like a Bucks cover under game as

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Speaker 3: a parlay option in this one. But I don't mind

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Speaker 3: me agree there, completely agree there. All right, let's keep

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Speaker 3: rolling here. Broncos Raiders again, not your favorite matchup, but

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Speaker 3: a little bit of good stuff here.

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Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna get to the interesting games too, but

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Speaker 2: it's interesting to win money and the flow makes sense

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Speaker 2: here if you cannot follow along. So I'm gonna go

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Speaker 2: with another half play here, but second half this time

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Speaker 2: Bronco's second half at the Raiders minus three and a half.

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Speaker 2: So we unfortunately watched this game already like a month

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Speaker 2: ago on a Thursday night, and it was awful. The

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Speaker 2: Broncos won ten to seven. It was terrible. Nobody could

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Speaker 2: do anything. And Denver trailed in that game and came

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Speaker 2: back to win. And you probably have the stat, Evan,

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Speaker 2: do you know that Denver has trailed in every game

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Speaker 2: this season so far? They're ten and two, but they've

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Speaker 2: trailed every game. I heard that the only other teams

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Speaker 2: that have trailed in all twelve games to start a season.

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Speaker 2: The best record of any team like that in NFL

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Speaker 2: history was seven and five. Denver's ten and two. Despite that,

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Speaker 2: so Ten wins only twice by more than one score.

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Speaker 2: Concluding they're only four and two on the road and

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Speaker 2: they haven't won by more than four points. And here

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Speaker 2: they are more than a touchdown favor on the routes.

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Speaker 2: So I don't want any part of that for a

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Speaker 2: full game. I'm looking at second half. By the way,

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Speaker 2: you can sometimes bet at some books team to win

357
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Speaker 2: from behind. That seems like Denver is looking like a

358
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Speaker 2: pretty good bet for this sort of game. Possibly for

359
00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:17,920
Speaker 2: that Denver first quarter bottom of five DVA. Offensively, they

360
00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,120
Speaker 2: have not come out of the gates well the Sean

361
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Speaker 2: Payton's first fifteen plays. It's just not working for them.

362
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Speaker 2: Raiders defense top five first quarter, so you don't really

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Speaker 2: want this first quarter play. It's going to set up

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Speaker 2: for the Raiders maybe to take a bit of a

365
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Speaker 2: lead er hang around. But Denver, we know how to

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Speaker 2: get there in the fourth quarter. The numbers back it up.

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Speaker 2: And this matchup, even though Denver kind of struggled to

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Speaker 2: get over the line by points last time, we've talked

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Speaker 2: about how lucky they've gotten. They were the better team,

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Speaker 2: and in this rivalry we've had five straight years where

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Speaker 2: a team sweeps the rivalry, so Denver won the first game.

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Speaker 2: Team that wins usually wins again in this matchup. The

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Speaker 2: Raiders dead last DVA the last six weeks, so they

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Speaker 2: are not good.

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Speaker 1: We know that.

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Speaker 2: What I didn't realize Denver's third overall in that stretch.

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Speaker 2: Their offense actually, by the underlying metrics, has been better

378
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Speaker 2: than I've given credit for in this stretch. To Denver offensively,

379
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Speaker 2: I think can find some answers, and then just defensively,

380
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Speaker 2: they're gonna be all over this backfield. The Raiders can't

381
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Speaker 2: block anybody like this is sack city for the Denver

382
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Speaker 2: in this game. Pressure rate is just They're gonna have

383
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Speaker 2: no shot. The Raiders are bottom five success rate, bottom

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Speaker 2: five explosives. Denver is number one in both of those.

385
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Speaker 2: The Raiders prefer to go short attack passing. Denver's great

386
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Speaker 2: against that. I honestly I think Denver could roll and

387
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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked to see them just win easily.

388
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Speaker 1: And actually cover a big spread.

389
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Speaker 2: Here Again, it doesn't seem like this is an important game.

390
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,680
Speaker 2: This is a sneaky important game for Denver. If they

391
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Speaker 2: win this game against the Raiders, guess who the Raiders

392
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Speaker 2: beat earlier this year, way back in Week one, the Patriots.

393
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Speaker 2: So Denver winning this game guarantees them. I had to

394
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Speaker 2: have tie break with the Patriots based on how all

395
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Speaker 2: the different tie break stuff falls out. Because of that,

396
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,240
Speaker 2: had to head win. So they're gonna need this game,

397
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Speaker 2: they'll be ready for it. Raiders second half spread three

398
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 2: and nine ats on the season, Denver eight and four,

399
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,080
Speaker 2: including eight and two in wins in the second half.

400
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 2: So Denver to have a lead and just kind of

401
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,520
Speaker 2: bleed things out and take care of business. Second half

402
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 2: minus three and a half. And then a little Raiders

403
00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,720
Speaker 2: team total mind shaft two just in case they really

404
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 2: can't score under ten and a half is three to one.

405
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Speaker 2: They've already had that five times this season, including in

406
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 2: that Denver game, So I will like that one there.

407
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 2: And then the reason I put this right after the

408
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Speaker 2: Bucks game I mentioned teasers earlier. These two together is

409
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Speaker 2: my favorite teaser this week as well. So let's do

410
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 2: a six point teaser. Broncos full game down to one

411
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 2: and a half, Bucks full game down to two and

412
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,880
Speaker 2: a half. Why do you tease? Because we're getting past

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Speaker 2: all those key numbers. We skip the seven and the six,

414
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Speaker 2: we skip the three. It's a good teaser spot for

415
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Speaker 2: both of those. I think this is my favorit teaser

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Speaker 2: of the week and both of these teams too. The

417
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,479
Speaker 2: opponents they really should just want to lose the game anyway.

418
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 2: The Saints and the Raiders, they need quarterbacks, give me

419
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,480
Speaker 2: the draft position, and just get Bucks and Broncos over

420
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 2: the line, even though I think they end up maybe

421
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:17,320
Speaker 2: both winning comfortably. Bucks Broncos teaser as well, so Broncos

422
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,199
Speaker 2: second half and then that teaser if you like it.

423
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Speaker 3: I have a feeling you're gonna look at the box

424
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Speaker 3: score after this game and Geno's sacks is gonna be

425
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 3: the telltale of how this game went. Like if there's

426
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Speaker 3: a lot of sacks on Geno's side, Denver's is probably

427
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 3: gonna go under and Denver's gonna cover if Gino can

428
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,880
Speaker 3: stay upright, which I feel like a lot of those

429
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 3: sacks that you see week to week is Gino's fault,

430
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 3: but it's also the line's fault. Like I feel like

431
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Speaker 3: it's a bit of a combination. He can't get out

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Speaker 3: of the pocket. I completely agree with you that that's

433
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Speaker 3: going to be an achilles heel for how this game

434
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 3: might go. I'll give you this one. So when Pete

435
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:54,760
Speaker 3: Carrol's last two seasons in the NFL Raiders Seahawks, these

436
00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 3: teams are ten to nineteen to their team total over

437
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,040
Speaker 3: so like, I feel like he is just struggling to

438
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 3: get offense no matter what the situation is. And obviously

439
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,160
Speaker 3: there's been some changes there. Now. The thing that kind

440
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 3: of worried me was like how bon Nicks played against

441
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 3: like some of that zone coverage in their first meeting,

442
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 3: like really didn't go well. I feel like there's gonna

443
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,879
Speaker 3: be adjustment. So I do see some positives here for Denver,

444
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,639
Speaker 3: but again it's the same Denver team we've been betting

445
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 3: against every week against the Raiders team we don't want

446
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 3: to bet on. So a bit of a tough situation,

447
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 3: but I think you probably attacked it right. Hopefully we

448
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 3: see a low scoring kind of back and forth first

449
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,640
Speaker 3: half which avails you a little bit of value here.

450
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 3: The thing I wouldn't want to take Raiders first half

451
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,360
Speaker 3: or Raiders first quarter or anything of that nature, which

452
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 3: would be the opposite bet. So I think this is

453
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 3: the right way to go.

454
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, the zone thing does give me a little bit

455
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 2: of pause, and look again, if you're seeing me attack

456
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 2: a half play the usually i'm explaining why only the half?

457
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 2: Why not the whole game? And at the high line here,

458
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 2: you know, not a comfortable spot because of the Bonnicks thing.

459
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 2: You're never gonna catch me looking to back bone Nicks

460
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 2: where I can. I believe this maybe is the first

461
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,359
Speaker 2: time I've taken the Broncos anything the entire season, but

462
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,399
Speaker 2: I think it's a good good spot for them. I

463
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 2: can't see the Raiders having any success against Nick Bonito

464
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,359
Speaker 2: and just those guys. If Denver gets any lead at

465
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 2: all and now the pass rush just pins their ears

466
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 2: back and coming at you hair on fire, like the

467
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 2: Raiders are toast at that point.

468
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if this broke the twelve

469
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,439
Speaker 3: game streak and Denver maybe just led the entire way

470
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 3: because Vegas couldn't put up enough points.

471
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 1: But that could be.

472
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll get maybe we'll get a Carlson field goal

473
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 3: to keep the streak alive. Bonix eleven and five second

474
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 3: half ats is a favorite three to one vers AFC

475
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 3: West feels like a decent spot. All right, let's keep

476
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 3: going here. We got two more before the lightning round

477
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 3: finally a matchup to love Packers. Bears, what are you

478
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 3: doing in this one?

479
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the Packers here minus six and a half.

480
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,479
Speaker 2: Make sure you get up below the seven and at

481
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 2: first glance, like some of the other lines out here,

482
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 2: I did think this line feels high. Honestly, my numbers

483
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,479
Speaker 2: think it's a touch high as well. The Bears are

484
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 2: the one seed right now, of course, and extra rest

485
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 2: both teams. I do think, though we talked about this,

486
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 2: I think this could be the cell high spot for Chicago.

487
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 2: You know, they drop actually from the one seed all

488
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: the way to the seventh seed if they lose this game.

489
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,439
Speaker 2: That's how tight the NFC is. I don't make too

490
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 2: much about the one seed thing. They were great against

491
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: the Eagles, Like, I'm not taking anything away from that,

492
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,719
Speaker 2: but really, what else has the Bears team really proven

493
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 2: so far? They have two and two against five hundred

494
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,399
Speaker 2: or better teams this year. The only other win was

495
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 2: Dallas way back in Week three, before Dallas was any

496
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 2: good and their defense was horrendous. They got killed on

497
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 2: the road in Detroit and at Baltimore. And here's another

498
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: road test for them that. Frankly, the Packers have absolutely

499
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,439
Speaker 2: dominated the rivalry. They've won twenty six out of thirty games,

500
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 2: and I know Aaron Rodgers was for most of those,

501
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,919
Speaker 2: but this is just that's fifteen years of green Bay dominance.

502
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,280
Speaker 2: The Bears did win, snapping eleven game win streak, but

503
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 2: it was Week eighteen last year against all the Packers backup,

504
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 2: so that's one of the four wins Chicago finally got in.

505
00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 2: Matchup wise, this is the key for me. Explosive both ways.

506
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 2: Chicago has been the most explosive offense in the NFL,

507
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,479
Speaker 2: but the Packers' defense does not give that up. They

508
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 2: have other flaws, but their second fewest explosives. The Bears

509
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,399
Speaker 2: attacked deep early and offen green Bay defense deep very well.

510
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 2: If the Chicago doesn't get those big plays, can Caleb

511
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: Williams on the road move the ball on long drives.

512
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 2: I'm not convinced that they can against the top defense.

513
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 2: And then the other side. Jordan Love, it's Toyota than season.

514
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: He's ripping it down the field and the Packers are

515
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 2: top five explosive offensively, but the Bear's defense is bottom ten,

516
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 2: giving those up their bottom three EPA per play against

517
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 2: the deep pass. Jordan Love attacking man coverage. With those

518
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 2: corners back, I think is going to have some opportunities

519
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 2: down the field, getting healthy in the receiving cor a

520
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 2: little bit, maybe even Jane Reid back this week as well.

521
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 2: And Chicago is trending up on the season. Obviously we've

522
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 2: done a lot of Chicago talk throughout the year, but

523
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: the Packers are still better on both sides, offensively and defensively.

524
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: They're just the better team. And at home in green Bay,

525
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:06,199
Speaker 2: I think is key to Bears defense. Bottom five on

526
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 2: the road for the season, pretty good, pretty average at home,

527
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 2: so not great as far as the Packers average on

528
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 2: the road, Number two DV away at home, so big

529
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 2: swing being in green Bay here, I think that they

530
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: get the win and the escalator here. And now you're

531
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 2: thinking like, well, is it's a division. Whoever you like

532
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 2: in the division? Probably I've got Bears tickets. I've already

533
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 2: bet the lines a couple of times, like I can't

534
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 2: keep betting NFC North anymore. Here's the better escalator pick.

535
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 2: If green Bay gets the win. Here they are right now,

536
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 2: even without this game, they're the third most likely team

537
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 2: to be a top two seed in the NFL. The

538
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: Broncos and the Patriots and the AFC. But Green Bay

539
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 2: before the Rams, before Seattle, is the most likely NFC

540
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,439
Speaker 2: top two seed. If you're a top two seed, if

541
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 2: you win a lot of games and maybe even the

542
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 2: one seed, you are in the mix for MVP. And

543
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 2: nineteen to one MVP is a big futures article I

544
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 2: put out this week. We talked about Stafford, we talked

545
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 2: about Drake May. Those teams are still vulnerable. Nobody's run

546
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 2: away with this thing. And if Jordan Love keeps the

547
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 2: toyota than stats, going four touchdowns on Thanksgiving, he has

548
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 2: a chance here to beat the one seed. And then

549
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 2: next week they played Denver. You could beat the one

550
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 2: seed back to back weeks as Green Bay. I think

551
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 2: you get some buzz there a little bit. So nineteen

552
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 2: to one I think is fully in play for Love

553
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 2: to make a push if Stafford may slip up a

554
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 2: little bit. Gotta start with the win Packers maya six

555
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 2: and a half. They've covered that line all but one

556
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 2: of their wins on the season, so I'm not gonna

557
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 2: be two daunted by the high line. And then one

558
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 2: last stat here, when two teams play in December that

559
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 2: are both seventy percent win rate or better. The favorite

560
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 2: team is who you want? Thirty five nineteen and three

561
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 2: ats sixty five percent. They're covering about two thirds of

562
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: the time, and I think the Packers are the better team,

563
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: and we'll take your business in Green Bay.

564
00:25:59,560 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 1: Yeah.

565
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 3: Actually the line tells the story, and anyone who's been

566
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 3: betting for a while kind of understands what I mean

567
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 3: by that. But I'll give you a staton. Nonetheless, so

568
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 3: you look at this line and you say kind of wow, right,

569
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 3: like Chicago one seed, this, this and that. So this

570
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 3: is the largest line in December or later for a

571
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 3: team of the seventy five percent plus win percentage with

572
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 3: their starting quarterback in division since twenty sixteen. So December later,

573
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 3: seventy five percent starting quarterback in Division twenty sixteen Dak

574
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 3: against the Eagles. I mean that that is how long

575
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 3: ago it has been since we saw a team this

576
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 3: good record wise, and honestly, forget the record like they're

577
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 3: they're putting up good numbers kind of across the board.

578
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,120
Speaker 3: The defense is playing all right, Caleb's staying away from

579
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 3: some stupid throws. Sometimes the run game looks fantastic, like

580
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 3: a lot to like here, So I think the line

581
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 3: tells the story. Now you mentioned it with Toyota, than

582
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 3: same with Lafleura. I mean, it's twenty in four in December.

583
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 3: A lot of good things there. One I believe, like

584
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 3: a bunch in a row at that point at home.

585
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 3: Before's ten and one straight up in December, ten days

586
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 3: to prep, he's four and oh. All the numbers kind

587
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 3: of tell you the story. The other thing I'll say

588
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 3: is this, and it's kind of a similar story to

589
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 3: Gino Smith as it is here With Caleb Williams, I

590
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,360
Speaker 3: think you need to continue to focus on the sacks.

591
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 3: If he gets four, if he gets sacked four times,

592
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 3: if he gets sacked five times, I think Green Bay

593
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 3: is going to do their job. The Bears. Let's see

594
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 3: what it is. I'm trying to last three two seasons.

595
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 3: I believe eleven and five when he gets sacked fewer

596
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 3: than two times two times or fewer and three and

597
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 3: ten over that mark. So to me, keep Caleb upright,

598
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 3: no dumb throws, and they should do well. But I

599
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 3: think I like the green Bay side of this with

600
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 3: you because I think they're going to sack them. I

601
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 3: think they're going to get to him, and they're going

602
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 3: to stop the explosive plays, but sacks to me the

603
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 3: key one here? All right? You ready to keep going?

604
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 3: Let's move all right, one more here before we get

605
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 3: to the lightning round. And it's a doozy Sunday night.

606
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 3: Football is going to be awesome. Texans, Chiefs, you got

607
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 3: the best defense in the end NFL basically going up

608
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 3: against Mahomes and both teams in a must must win.

609
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 3: Where are you going?

610
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: Yeah?

611
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 2: I gave out the under forty three and a half

612
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 2: on the hot Red. I'm just going there again, even

613
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 2: though it's down to forty two now, I still like

614
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 2: the under if you've not played yet. And I also

615
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 2: I'm using this to kind of get to matther big

616
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 2: futures play that I put out this week. So honestly,

617
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 2: it's a tough matchup for the Chiefs. I'm backing Chiefs futures.

618
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a second. But the Texas

619
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 2: are playing really well. Their defense, we know, is awesome.

620
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 2: Their offense has trended up to at least kind of

621
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 2: average now, and the Chiefs are missing their offensive line.

622
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 2: Both tackles are out. Tray Smith looks like he's out again.

623
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 2: Houston last year played them twice twenty seven nineteen and

624
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 2: twenty three fourteen. They lost both of those, but they

625
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 2: kind of hung around and gave the Chiefs a real game.

626
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 2: So this is gonna be a tough game Sunday night.

627
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 2: This is a playoff game for the Chiefs, and they

628
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 2: could lose, like they they could be basically down to

629
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 2: like ten percent to make the playoffs when we next

630
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 2: record Evan, So this is a real thing for them.

631
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 2: I still like under get talked about on the last podcast,

632
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 2: but some of the trends that stick out primetime unders

633
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 2: since twenty nineteen, sixty one percent unders between thirty nine

634
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 2: and forty four and the line drops fifty five percent,

635
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 2: and Houston nine to three to the under this season

636
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 2: best in the league, Chiefs eight and four to the under,

637
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 2: just behind. This is just Texans defense against all those

638
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 2: offensive line injuries, gonna be able to slow down the

639
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 2: Chiefs enough, and the Chiefs really kind of prefer to

640
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 2: play slow and methodically anyways, and home unders for Mahomes

641
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 2: has been a thing as well. So I like the under,

642
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,719
Speaker 2: but I'm still investing in the Chiefs and I'm counting

643
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 2: on Mahomes to find a way here. Why can I

644
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 2: believe against in the Chiefs Sunday Night? A few reasons.

645
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 2: I found Houston bottom ten EPA against the blitz Spags

646
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 2: is gonna blitz you man, He's coming. So the chief

647
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 2: splitz has not been great, but it's gonna test him there.

648
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 2: Houston also, as good as they are defensively terrible in

649
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 2: the red zone, like they are bottom five red zone,

650
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 2: and the Chiefs have moved the ball, they just can't

651
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 2: finish drives. Maybe they finish with the c touchdowns this

652
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 2: week where they don't normally. Chiefs defense also way better

653
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 2: at home, so big home advantage here for them and

654
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 2: the Chiefs this is a playoff spot. They're at extra rest,

655
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 2: they're off a loss. This is it for them. They

656
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 2: gotta have it, and I think, honestly, there's a chance

657
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 2: this could be the most the Chiefs are pushed until

658
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 2: the AFC Championship game. And that's why I'm also playing

659
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: Chiefs to win the AFC plus nine point fifty and

660
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: a little bit on the super Bowl ticket at eighteen

661
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 2: to one. This now, finally, I think, is the time

662
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 2: to invest in Chiefs futures. And here's the real reason.

663
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 2: It's not that the Chiefs are amazing. I think the

664
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: Chiefs are good. I think their metrics tell you they'res

665
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 2: good as maybe better than last year's team. But what

666
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 2: I love is they've been mid enough to accidentally lock

667
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: themselves into this path where they can only be in

668
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 2: the bottom of the bracket. They really can only be

669
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 2: the six or the seventh seed. Now.

670
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: Well, guess what.

671
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 2: The top of the bracket's pretty locked now too, in

672
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 2: some order it's Denver or New England. So we've been

673
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 2: talking about I don't trust those teams at the top.

674
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 2: Who's the sleeper? Well, how about the one who has

675
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 2: to play both of them to start out the playoffs.

676
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 2: If they're the seventh seed, they've got to play one

677
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 2: of those teams first probably, and if they win, then

678
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 2: they played the other one the next round. Okay, I'm

679
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 2: gonna like Patrick Mahomes against bow Knicks spoiler, Like, if

680
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: you've ever listened to anything I've said, not a surprise

681
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 2: to you. I'm gonna like him fine against Drake May

682
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 2: but with the way better roster around the quarterback in

683
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 2: Kansas City. And then you got Ravens Bills. The most

684
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: likely playoff game that's locked in on the other side

685
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 2: of the bracket, So those teams are away from the

686
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 2: Chiefs until the AFC Championship game.

687
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 1: Chiefs gotta beat somebody.

688
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 2: The Texans are tough, but if they get this win,

689
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 2: which they're gonna need at for the bet, probably the

690
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 2: Texans maybe don't make the playoffs. So that's just kind

691
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 2: of eliminating one of those teams that's a bigger threat

692
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 2: right now. Put the Jaguars in or the Chargers, someone

693
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 2: else that will be a better matchup for the Chiefs.

694
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 2: So I just think the path set up really well

695
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: for them. You can read my article about it. But

696
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 2: Chiefs Futures AFC is my favorite plus nine p fifty.

697
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 2: There is a world where they get to beat those

698
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 2: Broncos and Patriots games and suddenly you're sitting on a

699
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 2: plus nine to fifty money line an AFC Championship game, where,

700
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 2: may I remind you, Mahomes has never missed in his

701
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 2: career getting there, and I'm not ready to give up

702
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 2: on it yet. I still think they can get it

703
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 2: against the Texans, So I'll take the under in the game,

704
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 2: but I'm taking Chiefs futures and giving them one more

705
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 2: shot here eighteen.

706
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 3: To one to win the Super Bowl. Not a price

707
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 3: you would really ever see with Mahomes. So I can

708
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 3: understand where you're looking from. To go back to your

709
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 3: under point, I'll give you two stats. So Mahomes forty

710
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 3: seven and twenty nine at home to the under in

711
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 3: his career. Here's the crazy one. If he goes under

712
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 3: this week, he will be the most profitable quarterback since

713
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 3: two thousand and five at home to the under two

714
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 3: hundred and seventy AQBS. It's Pat Mahomes at forty seven

715
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 3: and twenty nine. And the crazy one is when he

716
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 3: faces a team above five hundred home since twenty twenty two,

717
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 3: he's fifteen and three to the under. All Casey wants

718
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 3: to do run the ball and the game. That's how

719
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 3: they play these games against really good teams. So we

720
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 3: will see if that continues.

721
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 2: Conder see the thunder lightning round lighting and the.

722
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 3: Thunder all right, lightning round time. You've got some player props,

723
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 3: some escalators. It's just just a fun just a fun

724
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 3: round all round. So let's start with a tight end.

725
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 2: What are you doing, yeah, Jaguars Colts, another one of

726
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 2: those really big games AFC South playoff picture.

727
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: I can't really get a read on the game.

728
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 2: Kind of a toss up to me. Home team has

729
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 2: won fourteen out of fifteen in this rivalry. The Colts

730
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 2: have covered only three of the last twenty against Jacksonville,

731
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 2: so good luck figuring that out. I'm going with tight ends.

732
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 2: I think this was a good game for both tight ends.

733
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 2: Warren's fading a little bit since the start of the year.

734
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 2: The rookie for the Colts. I like Brenton Strange, so

735
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take his over thirty nine and a half

736
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 2: receiving yards here. The both the defenses are top four

737
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 2: in tight end yards allowed. The Colts are bottom ten

738
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 2: by DVA against the tight ends, top five fantasy points allowed.

739
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 2: They have allowed thirty four yards or more ten times

740
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 2: to a tight end already. We need forty so right

741
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 2: in range there, And who would have thought at this

742
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 2: point of the season with Brian Thomas Junior and Travis Hunter,

743
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 2: who would have thought Jacksonville is all about Brighton Strange

744
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 2: and Jacoby Myers. That's where all the passes are going

745
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 2: these days. And Strange was kind of breaking out to

746
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 2: start the season. First four games, four point eight catches,

747
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 2: forty six yards, six targets a game.

748
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:34,919
Speaker 1: Then he got hurt.

749
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 2: Well, now he's back and he kind of picked up

750
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 2: right where he left off. Four catches, sixty nine yards

751
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 2: a game the last two games, five targets a game.

752
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 2: He's had only six healthy games this season. He's over

753
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 2: three nine and a half in all but one of those. Ironically,

754
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,439
Speaker 2: the only miss was against Cincinnati, the team that can't

755
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 2: stop a tight end to save their lives. So I

756
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 2: don't know what happened there, but on this line is

757
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 2: too low. Actually, he's had fifty nine yards in three

758
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 2: of his six healthy games, so half of them. So

759
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 2: we'll take the over thirty nine and a half and

760
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 2: we'll go sixty yards plus two forty As a little

761
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 2: strange things, Escalator, how about that?

762
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, you had mentioned the DVOA stuff like Colts suck

763
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 3: versus the tight ends. But what I like seeing the

764
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 3: most is since he came back from injury, he's third

765
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 3: in routes in the last two games, third and one

766
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 3: game third in the other game. So get he's out

767
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 3: there a ton, And what I love seeing as well

768
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,760
Speaker 3: not in his last game nine routes from the slot,

769
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 3: five out wide, sixteen in line, they're moving him around,

770
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 3: and they're doing anything possible to try to get him

771
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 3: in an advantage position. So thirty nine and a half

772
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 3: kind of feels a little low here, and I picked

773
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 3: him up on Fantasy this week, So let's go. All right,

774
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 3: let's keep going here. James Cook, you gotta be going

775
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 3: with the rushing, right, what else are you doing there

776
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 3: with him?

777
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 1: Yeah?

778
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 2: Bill's Bengals on any other season would be like the

779
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 2: game of the week, and this is like our fifth

780
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 2: or sixth most interesting game on Sunday. And look, first

781
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 2: shot here, Hott'll bet on Burrow, right, the big underdog.

782
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,399
Speaker 2: I missed the shot last week. Burrow eighteen in three

783
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,359
Speaker 2: ats as a three point dog or more wins these

784
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 2: games outright. I just don't like the matchup. It's again,

785
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 2: I'm trusting matchup here, and it's so well. I'm gonna

786
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 2: get to James Cook in a second. Bills are the

787
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 2: best offense at home this season. For the Bengals have

788
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 2: been way worse on the road. We don't know still

789
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 2: if t Higgins is gonna play here, and I think, honestly,

790
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 2: the Bengals are probably too cheap for this. But I

791
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 2: have in my notes. I think this is the game

792
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,800
Speaker 2: that finally gets the Bengals coaching staff fired. The Buffalo

793
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 2: Bills defense is bad against motion, they're bad against play

794
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 2: action doesn't matter. Cincinnati doesn't do any of that crap anyways.

795
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: Cincinnati plays the most base personnel eleven in the league.

796
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 2: Buffalo is number four EPA per play against that. Like,

797
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 2: you're gonna mix it up and do some other stuff

798
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 2: to beat this defense. That's not what Cincinnati does. The

799
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 2: Bengals face the most too high safety in the league.

800
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 2: That's where the Bills live. Too high safety. They're thirty

801
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: EPA per play. Bengals are thirtieth on offense EPA per

802
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 2: play against too high. That is not what they want,

803
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 2: but they don't have offense creativity get out of that.

804
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 2: They're gonna take a lot of pressure in this game,

805
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 2: and I think that the Bills dominate the way they

806
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 2: did last week and the way they did against the Chiefs,

807
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 2: which is by running the ball. Both teams should be

808
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:13,919
Speaker 2: able to run the ball in this game. Other than

809
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 2: the Giants, these are the worst two run defenses in football. However,

810
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 2: the Bengals don't know that because the Bengals just have

811
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 2: Burrow playing shotgun and don't do creative stuff, and the

812
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 2: Bills finally learned and are willing to say, you know what,

813
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, you don't need to be the MVP this week.

814
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 2: We got a second guy that can do that for us,

815
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: James Cook. Go get the win for us. We talked

816
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 2: about it last week. Allen was under two yards average

817
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 2: depth of target. They just pounded the ball with Cook

818
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 2: all game long. Because Buffalo's tackles are both hurt and

819
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 2: you might think, Okay, if the line is banged up,

820
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 2: why would I want a running back. Well, it's easier

821
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 2: to run block. Run block is forward, pass block is backwards.

822
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 2: So if you get the run block, you protect your

823
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 2: line and you let the running back and the line

824
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 2: be themselves better, especially again Cincinnati with no Trey Hendricks

825
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 2: in no way to hurt them.

826
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: There.

827
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 2: You pound the ball, running the ball, and that helps

828
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 2: protect you. This season, the Bills are six to zero.

829
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 2: When James Cook has nineteen or more carries? Now is

830
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 2: that chicken or egg? I don't really know, doesn't matter here.

831
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 2: They're two and four when he has less than that.

832
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 2: The two wins have been these wild shootout wins. So

833
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 2: when Buffalo run and run runs and plays power football.

834
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 2: That's the good Buffalo. That's the version that could make

835
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 2: a run in January. When they get away from that

836
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 2: and try to get into a shootout, it does not

837
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,760
Speaker 2: go well for them. In those games with nineteen carries

838
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 2: or more, cook is averaging twenty three rushes one hundred

839
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 2: and forty four yards six games, six touchdowns, one hundred

840
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 2: and eight yards and all of those.

841
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:46,760
Speaker 1: And look, both.

842
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: These teams should want long drives, keep the poning a

843
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:54,879
Speaker 2: quarterback on the sidelines, but only Buffalo actually does that.

844
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,720
Speaker 2: So the Bengals, we know how bad their run defense

845
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:01,800
Speaker 2: has been. They've allowed fourteen are more ten times this season.

846
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 2: Ninety three yards are more six times, one hundred and

847
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 2: twenty five yards are more three times. We had like

848
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 2: a month ago, I wanted my Bears running back overs

849
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 2: against the Bengals. We missed it because Swift was hurt

850
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 2: the last second. Kalamanuga had the biggest game of the

851
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 2: season again Cincinnati twenty six for one to seventy six.

852
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,440
Speaker 2: I'm not missing it again. The lines are priced in

853
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 2: here because they know the Bengals defense is terrible, but

854
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 2: we're playing it anyway. Last Buffalo wins. Here's the last

855
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,879
Speaker 2: four times that they've won a game. Cook has had

856
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 2: last week thirty two rushes one hundred and forty four

857
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 2: yards against the Steelers, that Chiefs game twenty seven for

858
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 2: one to fourteen against the Panthers nineteen for two hundred

859
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 2: and sixteen yards and two scores. I just think this

860
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,399
Speaker 2: sets up as kind of a proxy for a Bills win.

861
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,439
Speaker 2: If the Bills win, why, it's probably because James Cook

862
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,240
Speaker 2: did it, which is a weird thing to say about Buffalo.

863
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 2: So I'm taking the escalator all the way. Start with

864
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,839
Speaker 2: the rushing yards ninety five and a half. Just that's

865
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,399
Speaker 2: that's the line, but we're playing it. The ban allow

866
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty three a game. And then rather

867
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,919
Speaker 2: than attempts, when he has twenty attempts, he's getting big

868
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 2: yardage and it's the Bengals. If he gets twenty carries,

869
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 2: twenty five carries, he's gonna get the yards. The Bengals

870
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,320
Speaker 2: are not gonna have to stop him. So one hundred

871
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 2: and twenty yards plus two thirty five, one hundred and

872
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 2: forty yards plus four to seventy five and a couple

873
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 2: other things here twenty eight carries at DraftKings is plus

874
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 2: thirteen sixty in case he gets that huge number. He's

875
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 2: done that twice already, a well off by one against

876
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. But we'll get in play there and I

877
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: think you could still take the rushing crown too. He's

878
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 2: only fifty four yards behind Johnson Taylor. We talked about

879
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 2: the Colts upcoming schedule being brutal down the stretch. Cook

880
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 2: is three to one at one book to leave the

881
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 2: league in rushing yards.

882
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:46,320
Speaker 1: This is the spot.

883
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 2: You're not getting it after this because if he has

884
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 2: a big game, he'll probably be the leader and you

885
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:53,919
Speaker 2: won't get that number anymore. So Cook, escalator ninety five

886
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 2: and up one hundred and twenty, one hundred and forty

887
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 2: all the Cook. This is me betting on Buffalo with

888
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 2: the new version of what they've become, and I think

889
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 2: that they kind of deliver the knockout blow to the

890
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 2: Bengals this week.

891
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 3: You're betting on Buffalo being smart, which we've won and

892
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,320
Speaker 3: lost to four. Like the right thing to do the

893
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 3: right thing to do here is to run the damn ball,

894
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 3: and to run the damn ball a lot. So then

895
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 3: Burrow doesn't have the ball like It's just it's very simple.

896
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 3: What the right thing to do in this Buffalo game

897
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 3: is to most likely win, and this is it. So

898
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 3: and listen, I'll give you a few more numbers, but

899
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,240
Speaker 3: everyone kind of knows where I'm going with this. Anyway,

900
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 3: most yards allowed on ground before contact the Giants is

901
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 3: the worst of the NFL, then it's the Bengals, and

902
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 3: then to me, this stat basically says everything you want

903
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,959
Speaker 3: to know about why you should be betting what you're betting,

904
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 3: and why they should be doing what you're betting, which

905
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 3: is stuff. Right, percent of rush attempts runner stopped at

906
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 3: or behind the line of scrimmage, Cincinnati's at thirteen percent,

907
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 3: worst mark in the NFL by about a full percentage point.

908
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 3: So it's like, at this point they're not stopping anybody,

909
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 3: and they're also not even getting to the defender till

910
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 3: three yards down. Feel so, if Buffalo doesn't run the

911
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,240
Speaker 3: ball a ton in this game, it's their own loss.

912
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 3: And honestly, I feel like the loser of this should

913
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 3: lose their head coach. But it's not going to happen

914
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:11,320
Speaker 3: in Buffalo, and it's probably not gonna happen in Cincinnati.

915
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:13,440
Speaker 3: I just don't like either of them very much, but

916
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 3: that's the angle. I'm on it with you. But all right,

917
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 3: let's keep going here. You're looking at a tight end.

918
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 3: The question is which one.

919
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:22,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've playing a lot of tight ends this year.

920
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 2: We're going back to Kyle Pitts. We tried him a

921
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,799
Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago on the receptions escalator. Didn't go,

922
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 2: but we're trying it again and run it back against

923
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 2: the Seahawks. We played against the Saints, two catches twenty

924
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 2: five yards didn't go well. My dude couldn't catch the

925
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 2: ball that game. Like, he still led the team and

926
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 2: target just kept dropping it all a game. Three games

927
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 2: now with Kirk Cousins, Pitts has led the team and

928
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 2: targets all three games. And yeah, Drake London has been

929
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 2: out but looks like he's out again. Kirk is going

930
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 2: to be trouble this game with all the pressure, but

931
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 2: maybe Darnold two kind of a weird game setup. I

932
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:53,879
Speaker 2: think Kirk is going to look to his tight end

933
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:54,959
Speaker 2: just like he usually does.

934
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: Here. Seattle.

935
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 2: As good as their defense is twenty ninth by DVA

936
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 2: against tight end, they've allowed the seventh most tight end

937
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 2: Fantasy points the third most receptions. Even weirder, they're number

938
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,319
Speaker 2: one defending the middle by Dvoa, so that's where you'd

939
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 2: think a tight end normally lives. But they're kind of

940
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:14,439
Speaker 2: bleeding against the tight ends that are the Kyle Pitts type,

941
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 2: the guys that split out wide and play more like

942
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 2: a receiver. Last ten games for Seattle, two of those

943
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,760
Speaker 2: games the opponent's tight end one was hurt either before

944
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 2: during the game. Here's the receptions they allowed to the

945
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 2: other tight end ones six seven, four to nine, four nine,

946
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 2: six and six catches, so eight times six catches are

947
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 2: more in six of those six and a half catches

948
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 2: a game. So Pits, we're going back with the receptions.

949
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:43,720
Speaker 2: The line is four and a half, but it's juiced

950
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 2: to minus one sixty. I'm gonna skip that and go

951
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 2: straight to the escalator. Three games now with Cousins, he

952
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 2: had seven catches for eighty two.

953
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 1: Last week.

954
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 2: He had nine for fifty nine earlier that match his

955
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 2: career high. So I'm gonna play split between six and

956
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 2: seven catches. Six is plus one thirty five, seven is

957
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,959
Speaker 2: plus two fifty and in a little touch on nine

958
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 2: catches in case he matches that career high at nine

959
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,719
Speaker 2: to one. Kyle Pitts has been burning people for the

960
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 2: entire career in the NFL and fantasy. I'm gonna give

961
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 2: him one more shot here, then I might be done

962
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:14,839
Speaker 2: with them too.

963
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 3: The thing I do like about those two Kirk Cousins

964
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:20,280
Speaker 3: games that he had with Pitts. So you mentioned nine

965
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 3: and eight, but he's also got nine. So he had

966
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 3: nine targets, nine catches. Then he had eight targets, seven catches.

967
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,240
Speaker 3: That is pretty impressive. When Cousins is going his direction,

968
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 3: he's getting in the ball. Pits is catching the ball. Now.

969
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,879
Speaker 3: The other thing is this, since week seven, twenty one

970
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 3: percent target share, fifth among tight ends. He is getting

971
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 3: a lot of the balls. And even if Drake London

972
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 3: happens to be back this week, I still think Pits

973
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 3: will see the ball, We'll see targets. And we talked

974
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 3: about this with Brenton Strange and you just mentioned it.

975
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 3: They're moving him around a lot. You're seeing why, you're

976
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 3: seeing slot, you're seeing in line like they are doing

977
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 3: whatever they can to try to find Kyle Pitts, which God,

978
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 3: we would have loved that few years ago, but thank god,

979
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,800
Speaker 3: it's happening now. And the other thing is this Seattle

980
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 3: really good versus the run, which is exactly what Atlanta

981
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:11,279
Speaker 3: wants to do. So my hope is Raheem Morris kind

982
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:14,400
Speaker 3: of shifts that a little bit when he sees the numbers,

983
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 3: sees the percentages, sees the efficiencies and says, all right,

984
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 3: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnold Mooney, like, we should maybe

985
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 3: change it up a tiny bit to try to keep

986
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:27,280
Speaker 3: us in this game because Seattle's run defense is really

987
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 3: extraordinary and probably something you'd want to avoid a little

988
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:33,239
Speaker 3: bit in this one. Maybe you get Bjon Robinson in

989
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:35,959
Speaker 3: some receiving as well, so we will see how that goes.

990
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 3: But completely on the same page here, it is Kyle

991
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 3: Pitts season in December. I didn't think I'd be saying that,

992
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 3: all right, Escalator season, We love those What are you

993
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 3: doing there?

994
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: Rams? Cardinals?

995
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 2: Look on the surface, this feels like a Cardinals spot,

996
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna do a Rams Escalator.

997
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 1: We talked about this.

998
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 2: Arizona's had so many close losses all year, but in

999
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:58,760
Speaker 2: November they lost by nineteen to the Niners, by twenty

1000
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 2: two to the Seahawks. How about complete the triaffecta in

1001
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,440
Speaker 2: the division because when they face a really good team,

1002
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 2: teams can get away. And I'm not worried about the Rams.

1003
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 2: We talked about that on Sunday. They they buy on paper.

1004
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 2: They blew out the Panthers. They just also had the

1005
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 2: huge turnover plays and the big defensive plays, but they

1006
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 2: had a twenty two percent net success rate advantage.

1007
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 1: They're fine.

1008
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 2: And the Rams have dominated this rivalry in particular, They've

1009
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 2: won fourteen out of seventeen, and in those seventeen games

1010
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:29,320
Speaker 2: almost a decade, only one game closer than seven points.

1011
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 2: So I'm not gonna be intimidated by the high line here.

1012
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 2: And out of those fourteen Rams wins over half, eight

1013
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:38,319
Speaker 2: of them by seventeen points or more, including they've won

1014
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 2: by twenty two, twenty three, twice, twenty seven to thirty three,

1015
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 2: and thirty four. So that's almost half of the Rams

1016
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 2: win in the stretch that have come by at least

1017
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 2: twenty two points. Cardinals offense worse, early defense trending down.

1018
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 2: Rams are best in the league success rate, Cardinals defense

1019
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 2: bottom five.

1020
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 1: I just think this sets up.

1021
00:46:57,160 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 2: For a spot where the Rams could do what they've done.

1022
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 2: AGA's a lot of team get on the board early,

1023
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,479
Speaker 2: get the lead, and it just gets away from them.

1024
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 2: This could be a good Stafford MVP bounce back spot

1025
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 2: as well. The Rams already have this year five wins

1026
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,839
Speaker 2: by two touchdowns are better, including twenty four, twenty seven,

1027
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,839
Speaker 2: twenty eight. So get ready. We're taking the escalator all

1028
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 2: the way. Start with minus thirteen and a half. It's

1029
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 2: plus one sixty eight, so to win by fourteen, and

1030
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:26,359
Speaker 2: then we'll say win by seventeen plus two forty by

1031
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 2: twenty one or more plus four to twenty five. That's

1032
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 2: the main push, but we're not done. Two more touches

1033
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 2: minus twenty six and a half is eight to one,

1034
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,800
Speaker 2: and then win by thirty one or more thirteen to one.

1035
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 2: Just in case this really gets away from the Cardinals.

1036
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 1: They've been good on the back door.

1037
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 2: We'll have to hope that they the Rams can slam

1038
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 2: the back door closed or we're not gonna hit these

1039
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 2: super high ones. But I think this is a spot

1040
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 2: where the Rams are gonna come out mad after what

1041
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:53,399
Speaker 2: they gave away last week and.

1042
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 1: Again division game.

1043
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 2: They're gonna need this one to stay on top of

1044
00:47:57,600 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 2: where they're looking to get in the NFC. I think

1045
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:02,320
Speaker 2: they get the job done with plenty of room to spare.

1046
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 3: McVeigh likes himself from Toyotathon as well, really good in

1047
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 3: December twenty six and eleven, twenty five, eleven, and against

1048
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 3: the spread as well, he's won eight in a row.

1049
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:13,759
Speaker 3: This is the one I like the most. As a

1050
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 3: road favorite in Arizona, he's six and oh straight up

1051
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 3: ats and as a road favorite in Arizona or Seattle

1052
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:21,759
Speaker 3: he's nine and oh straight up. Obviously, he has his

1053
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 3: trouble with Shanahan, he has his trouble with San Francisco.

1054
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 3: Put a decent spot in this one, and to me,

1055
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 3: this is a little bit of a weird one where

1056
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 3: like the MVP and the Heisman are kind of running

1057
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 3: where it's like a very tight race. To me, there's

1058
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 3: no reason why you wouldn't want to keep Stafford in

1059
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 3: the game to kind of run up the score a

1060
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 3: little bit, throw him an extra touchdown or two. Obviously

1061
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 3: they have a lot more to come, right like that,

1062
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 3: you don't want to get Stafford hurt. But I think

1063
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 3: there is a fun middle line between McVeigh being like,

1064
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,360
Speaker 3: this is the game to maybe pump those stats a

1065
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 3: little bit. I think he wants him to win the MVP.

1066
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 3: Like Matthew Stafford is a heck of a storyline for

1067
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:00,920
Speaker 3: someone who's been in the league for so along, who's

1068
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 3: had this success. He's the All American boy, and I

1069
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 3: think we want to give him the award. He just

1070
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 3: needs to continue to do what he's doing. And you know,

1071
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 3: obviously Drake may is a good story as well. But

1072
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:13,800
Speaker 3: I see the vision. I'll give you one stat and

1073
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 3: then we can move on to the last one here.

1074
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 3: Since twenty fifteen teams after losing is a seven plus

1075
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 3: point favorite eighty three and fifty eight ats. So I

1076
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,359
Speaker 3: see the vision with the Rams in this one, all right,

1077
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:29,839
Speaker 3: last one before the look ahead. Oh boy, this one

1078
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 3: is fun. So Cleveland and Tennessee is a game. You know,

1079
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 3: the over under the question is what the heck you

1080
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:35,400
Speaker 3: doing with it?

1081
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no way we were not playing the worst

1082
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 2: football game of the season, Titans Browns. You know we're

1083
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:45,840
Speaker 2: going under thirty four and a half and we're taking

1084
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 2: a mind chaft. I got like five or six bets

1085
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:49,879
Speaker 2: to get to you on this game. The only way

1086
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,759
Speaker 2: to make a terrible game even terribler is to just

1087
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 2: bet the heck out of it with all sorts of

1088
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 2: goofy of stops. So obviously these are two of the

1089
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 2: worst offenses in football. You don't need much of now

1090
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 2: for that. This total is ridiculously low. I tweeted out

1091
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 2: early on Sunday, We're at thirty four and a half.

1092
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 2: Can you believe that's the total before the games? Then

1093
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 2: we watch these teams play and I was like, oh

1094
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:10,840
Speaker 2: my gosh.

1095
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 1: It's too high. We should have set the total lower.

1096
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 2: We're getting freezing temperatures, we're getting windy conditions, windy under

1097
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:21,760
Speaker 2: sixty two percent last four seasons. So Cleveland shoulder honestly

1098
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 2: hasn't been terrible so far, but hasn't really done a lot.

1099
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:27,879
Speaker 2: He had one real touchdown driving against the Niners. Ten

1100
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 2: plays ninety yards. Okay, we'll give you credit for that

1101
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 2: one against the Raiders three touchdowns, but all five plays

1102
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 2: are less like they had one from like the two

1103
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:38,799
Speaker 2: yard line. They had one broken spring screenplay and it's

1104
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 2: the Raiders. So Titans defense maybe best of those three. Honestly,

1105
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 2: now that they're healthy up the middle, I think they

1106
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 2: can hold. And of course Brown's defense at home, we

1107
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 2: know how good they are Titans dead last versus too high.

1108
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 2: That's what the Browns play a lot of, and they're

1109
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 2: best in the league. Added, Titans dead last against pressure

1110
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 2: Miles garrett sack record, He's coming for it. Are last

1111
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:02,799
Speaker 2: in the league in points per game at fourteen point two.

1112
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 2: They scored three last week. How in the world are

1113
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 2: the Titans scoring on the route in Cleveland? I don't

1114
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 2: really know their Their team total is set at fifteen

1115
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 2: and a half. That seems crazy low. They've scn fourteen

1116
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 2: or below in over half their games this season, like

1117
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,359
Speaker 2: they cannot get any points this year.

1118
00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:22,799
Speaker 1: So here's the thing.

1119
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 2: When a total gets this low, history tells us it

1120
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:29,839
Speaker 2: can't go low enough. Totals at thirty seven or blow

1121
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:33,359
Speaker 2: since November twenty nineteen forty two, twenty two and one

1122
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 2: to the under sixty six percent, under since twenty twelve,

1123
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 2: thirty six or below totals seventeen and seven to the

1124
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 2: under seventy one percent. Like, the lower the total goes,

1125
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 2: the more under it gets. The Browns already have eight

1126
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 2: games this season below forty points, five games that would

1127
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:53,879
Speaker 2: go under this number thirty four or below. So I'm

1128
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 2: gonna take the under thirty four and a half. But

1129
00:51:56,960 --> 00:52:00,760
Speaker 2: I'm still going in those games at thirty six or below.

1130
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 2: So twenty four games since twenty twelve, In sixteen of

1131
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 2: the twenty four, so two thirds of them, the losing

1132
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 2: team topped out at ten points or less. And in

1133
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:12,279
Speaker 2: nine of the twenty four thirty eight percent of them

1134
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 2: the losing team scored single digits. All right, So both

1135
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:20,360
Speaker 2: teams to score ten points no plus two fifty, you

1136
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 2: can bet that at draftings. You can find that at

1137
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:25,839
Speaker 2: most books. You're looking at which team to score ten first,

1138
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 2: you can just bet neither of them, or you're can

1139
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: do that one. I just said neither team to score

1140
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 2: ten points. How about a really ugly game twenty eight

1141
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:37,240
Speaker 2: to one on that one, that's gonna be really low scoring.

1142
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 2: They'll take a shot. Cleveland to get a shutout sixteen

1143
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:44,360
Speaker 2: to one at DraftKings. The Titans got shut out already

1144
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 2: this year, and they almost did last week. They scored

1145
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 2: a field goal against Jacksonville. Cleveland in their wins has

1146
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 2: allowed ten to ten and six points, so they're getting

1147
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 2: pretty close. This is a pretty good spot for a

1148
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 2: shutout win, and then a little fun because if nobody's

1149
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 2: going to score, that's the bets we have, But if

1150
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:05,239
Speaker 2: someone scores, who's it gonna be. Well, First of all,

1151
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:07,800
Speaker 2: if you want nobody to get a touchdown that's forty

1152
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 2: to one, you have my blessing if you want to

1153
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 2: do that in this game. We don't get too many

1154
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 2: games like that. But if somebody does score, you already

1155
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 2: know who I'm taking. It's Quinn Shawn Judkins, the one

1156
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 2: guy who's the running back against the Titans. We've been

1157
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 2: betting all season. Titans have allowed fourteen running back touchdowns,

1158
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:26,719
Speaker 2: second most in the league. They've allowed at least one

1159
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:29,279
Speaker 2: all but two games. I think the weeks we bet

1160
00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 2: them to be honest, Judkins in Cleveland's wins six touchdowns

1161
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 2: and three wins at least one every game. He's only

1162
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:40,560
Speaker 2: had one touchdown all their other losses combined. So Judkins

1163
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 2: is almost even odds for a touchdown at minus one

1164
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,799
Speaker 2: ten and then even better. One last bet here for

1165
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 2: you give me the Judkins touchdown and the under thirty

1166
00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:53,960
Speaker 2: four plus three seventy five because they have to price

1167
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 2: in this Magnus extra boost there because there's just not

1168
00:53:57,480 --> 00:54:00,799
Speaker 2: many touchdowns to go around. Hopefully Judkin gets the only

1169
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 2: one and get out of here. Maybe Tennessee doesn't score

1170
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 2: at all. We're gonna hit a bunch of these bets here.

1171
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:07,120
Speaker 1: This game is awful.

1172
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 2: I don't want to see it on my red zone

1173
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 2: screen for one second, and the less I see it,

1174
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 2: the better our bets are doing. Let's have some fun

1175
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 2: and bat against Titans Browns doing anything useful.

1176
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, So some numbers behind the number. So since it

1177
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 3: started twenty ten season, this would be the third lowest

1178
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:28,240
Speaker 3: total in an outdoor game in freezing temperatures, freezing temperatures outdoor,

1179
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 3: third lowest total since twenty ten. We had thirty two

1180
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:34,880
Speaker 3: and a half last and twenty twenty two Saints Browns

1181
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:37,359
Speaker 3: that was a seventeen to ten final, and then of

1182
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 3: course the twenty eight and a half we had with

1183
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:43,239
Speaker 3: Jets and Patriots in twenty twenty three, a seventeen to

1184
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:46,279
Speaker 3: three final. So exactly what Brandon's saying. And then I

1185
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 3: look this up because a lot of these low totals

1186
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:52,760
Speaker 3: kind of are Cleveland, and they're usually Cleveland at home.

1187
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:55,359
Speaker 3: So eight plus mile a number wins, which we've got

1188
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 3: about ten right now when Cleveland's at home, and the

1189
00:54:58,120 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 3: total is under thirty seven, which very key number. When

1190
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 3: you start to go down is nineteen ten and one

1191
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,319
Speaker 3: to the under going under by ten two point eight

1192
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:10,799
Speaker 3: points per game, So again exactly the way we're talking about.

1193
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 3: And when you say nineteen and ten and one to

1194
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:15,320
Speaker 3: the under under by two point eight, it's like, okay, whatever,

1195
00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 3: except those totals are like in the mid thirties some

1196
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:21,400
Speaker 3: of those, So those two point eight points are pretty valuable. Now.

1197
00:55:21,440 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 3: The one bet you didn't say that I want to

1198
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 3: add to your lists. Listen, you've already got five, you

1199
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 3: might as well take six would.

1200
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:28,799
Speaker 1: Be the under in the game.

1201
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:31,720
Speaker 3: And I want Jenkins to score two, Like there's plenty

1202
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:34,600
Speaker 3: of room for touchdowns in this game. I think he

1203
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 3: can get to very easily if he gets one. And

1204
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:39,839
Speaker 3: the price you're talking about for one in the under

1205
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 3: is three seventy five on DraftKings. Right now you do two,

1206
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:45,319
Speaker 3: it's twenty to one. Sign me up.

1207
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 1: I'm in.

1208
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 2: I'm in for it. Judkins has had multiple scores, I think,

1209
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 2: in two of Cleveland's three wins, So let's do it again.

1210
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:55,440
Speaker 2: We played it on the previous one, which was another

1211
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:58,879
Speaker 2: really ugly one, so let's get another ugly one. Let's

1212
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 2: add it to the list. You're allowed on red zone

1213
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:04,799
Speaker 2: for two times, one play each Judkins touchdown, then get

1214
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:05,520
Speaker 2: off my screen.

1215
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:08,440
Speaker 3: Yep, and Scotty's gonna make a joke about it. It's

1216
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 3: gonna be fourteen to nothing, the game will end and

1217
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 3: it'll be fantastic. All right, look ahead to week fifteen.

1218
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 3: Holy mackerel, it's week fifteen. What are you doing?

1219
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 1: Let's talk ahead, skim a shot.

1220
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:22,200
Speaker 3: How about next week?

1221
00:56:22,640 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 2: I count my mind, sat my mind, save.

1222
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 1: Yeah Ano.

1223
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 2: They're under to finish us out here, Chargers at the

1224
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 2: Chiefs under forty five and a half. So we're gonna

1225
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 2: see these games play the last two games of the

1226
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:41,440
Speaker 2: week this week Sunday Night Chiefs Monday Night Chargers. We'll

1227
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:44,320
Speaker 2: preview that one for you when we next convene on Sunday.

1228
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 2: So we talked about Chiefs Texans.

1229
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:46,960
Speaker 1: We like the under.

1230
00:56:47,239 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 2: Spoiler, I'm gonna give you the under when we get

1231
00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 2: to Chargers and Philadelphia. That's my pick for that one

1232
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 2: as well. So I think both these games are gonna

1233
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:58,280
Speaker 2: be low scoring, kind of slog type prime time games

1234
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:02,400
Speaker 2: because both off lines here in shambles. Each team is

1235
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:05,520
Speaker 2: missing both of their tackles. That's never great. This time

1236
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 2: of year. Charge's offense has been fading pretty badly, bottom

1237
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:11,360
Speaker 2: ten DV away the last six games. And then we

1238
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 2: don't even know what Justin Herbert is right now. He

1239
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,200
Speaker 2: has surgery in his left hand. It looks like he's

1240
00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:18,400
Speaker 2: hoping to play, but we don't know if he will

1241
00:57:18,440 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 2: this week. They're probably gonna have to kind of adjust

1242
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 2: and adjust the handoffs, maybe more shotgun, a little different

1243
00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:26,439
Speaker 2: than you used to. We don't know if he'll play

1244
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 2: next week either, or does he play this week but

1245
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:31,280
Speaker 2: gets reinjured and now we get Trey Lance next week.

1246
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:34,880
Speaker 2: Anything like that. Anything less than Herbert full speed only

1247
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 2: helps an under here. And even without that, this is

1248
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 2: just the script. Similar to Chiefs Texans, like we talked about,

1249
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:45,760
Speaker 2: both coaches prefer low scoring. Both coaches are conservative. They

1250
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 2: want to just have long drives, low scoring type games.

1251
00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 2: Chiefs eight and four to the under on the season.

1252
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 2: And then we talked about these stats. You and I

1253
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:56,880
Speaker 2: have both earlier mahomes home unders most profitable quarterback in

1254
00:57:56,960 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 2: our system thirty eight twenty one and one to the

1255
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:02,080
Speaker 2: under sixty four percent, and you had the number even

1256
00:58:02,120 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 2: better as a favorite. So great spot to back Chiefs

1257
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 2: Unders week fourteen Forward Division unders start to pop as trends.

1258
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:12,840
Speaker 2: Here's a couple that stick out for home favorite under

1259
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:16,560
Speaker 2: seven points fifty six percent to the under and total

1260
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 2: at forty three to forty seven. As this one is

1261
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 2: right in the middle fifty seven percent to the under.

1262
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:24,600
Speaker 2: So I think this is an under game. Last five

1263
00:58:24,720 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 2: matchups Chiefs Chargers thirty six point eight points a game,

1264
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:32,240
Speaker 2: so at max points is forty eight, we're barely below

1265
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 2: that number here at forty five and a half. We're

1266
00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:39,040
Speaker 2: about to end the week this week watching Houston and Philadelphia,

1267
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 2: maybe the two best defenses in football, attack these no

1268
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:46,160
Speaker 2: offensive lines and make these offenses look not great in primetime.

1269
00:58:46,600 --> 00:58:49,760
Speaker 2: There's only one way this total is going to go. Already,

1270
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:52,400
Speaker 2: some forty four to some books forty four and blow

1271
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 2: starts hit key numbers all the way along the way.

1272
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 2: Give me the under forty five and a half before

1273
00:58:56,600 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 2: it starts moving that direction.

1274
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:00,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love it, And I feel like that's just

1275
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:02,800
Speaker 3: too high, Like by the time everyone starts paying attention

1276
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 3: to that game. I guess it depends what we see

1277
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 3: this weekend as well, but I feel like that's going

1278
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 3: to get bet down too. All right, that'll do it

1279
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 3: here on the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week

1280
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:14,880
Speaker 3: fourteen Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings. If you want

1281
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:17,920
Speaker 3: instant notifications when action experts track their bets, go to

1282
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:21,240
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1283
00:59:21,400 --> 00:59:23,920
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1284
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:26,560
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1285
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1286
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:33,720
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1288
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:38,520
Speaker 3: of seconds, and then you can choose any bet any

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00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 3: book you like in that scenario. And again, if you

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00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:42,520
Speaker 3: want to tell some of the bets we gave out today,

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00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:44,240
Speaker 3: make sure to look for the quick slip link in

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00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:47,520
Speaker 3: the podcast and video description or go to actionework dot

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00:59:47,520 --> 00:59:48,800
Speaker 3: com slash bet Now.

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Speaker 1: We will be back.

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00:59:49,880 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 3: Sunday night for our NFL recap show. We'll be live

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00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:56,440
Speaker 3: on Action Network YouTube page shortly after Sunday night. Football

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00:59:57,120 --> 01:00:01,080
Speaker 3: Chiefs Texans, thank you for listening, enjoy the like slate,

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01:00:01,320 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 3: and good luck with all your bets is weak and everyone.

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01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:22,040
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

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01:00:25,560 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 3: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 3: hundred Gambler