Speaker 1: To check it down Man Now, Down Now. Thursday morning,
Speaker 1: January twitter nineteen, It's the Beating the Book Podcast Championship
Speaker 1: Round in the National Football League. Skill Alexander of course
Speaker 1: on my right and left the staples of the show
Speaker 1: on my right. From Way to Talk, it's Marco Danzelo. Everybody,
Speaker 1: what's happening? Marco? Hey, just glad to be here. We
Speaker 1: only got the two games or three games left, three
Speaker 1: games left, three weeks left of the football version of
Speaker 1: this podcast, three weeks left of the megapod because you
Speaker 1: know what's next week. For those who have not been
Speaker 1: around for the years that we've done this, let's just
Speaker 1: say it gets a little deplorable next week and front
Speaker 1: and center starring Mr Deplorable himself. Ace. What's happening in Ace?
Speaker 1: All right? Never better man, never better? Thanks for asking.
Speaker 1: Things are good. Can't complain. Had a good year, healthy, happy,
Speaker 1: things are good. Football ending a little too quake, But
Speaker 1: at the same time, I'm kind of happy for it
Speaker 1: to be over, you know what I mean. It's it's
Speaker 1: been a long season and now in the new year,
Speaker 1: basketball's here. It's kind of tragged on a little bit.
Speaker 1: I agree. It's like We're all on a hamster wheel
Speaker 1: during football season, right It's just a never ending cycle.
Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean at some point you need a break.
Speaker 1: I will say this Australian open destruction. That's what I'm
Speaker 1: betting right now. I don't really love these two games.
Speaker 1: We'll get into that coming up. Our friend here, who
Speaker 1: has joined us once again for the umpteenth time over
Speaker 1: twenty five appearances on this podcast. He certainly knows what
Speaker 1: it's like to be on the hamster wheel during football season.
Speaker 1: He hosts the morning show over at ninety five point
Speaker 1: seven the Game in San Francisco. It's the Joe Low
Speaker 1: and Dibbs Morning Show. He's the job part of that,
Speaker 1: and for our purposes here he hosts The Sharp six
Speaker 1: hundred podcasts available through covers dot com, a gambling nugget,
Speaker 1: an instant offensive podcast in the sports betting world. Really
Speaker 1: great show, ladies and gentlemen. It's the Great Morning Joseph,
Speaker 1: Good morning Gil, Good morning Ace, Good morning Marco. I'll
Speaker 1: tell you this, um, It's easy to come on here
Speaker 1: and say something nice and make it sound like I'm
Speaker 1: pandering to gild Or, Marco and Ace, but the reality
Speaker 1: of the situation is this. I've been covering sports now
Speaker 1: for ten years, and you get a lot of opportunities
Speaker 1: in sports to jump on radio programs and to talk
Speaker 1: with a variety of different individuals. Maybe you get a
Speaker 1: TV spot, maybe your live streaming, maybe you're on a podcast,
Speaker 1: And by and large, a lot of them are positive
Speaker 1: experiences and they're and they're fun to do. Sometimes every
Speaker 1: now and again, though you have one that will pop
Speaker 1: up at a bad moment, you'll forget about it. It
Speaker 1: will be more like a homework assignment. Again, not complaining.
Speaker 1: It's a beautiful thing to be able to talk about
Speaker 1: sports for a living. But this right here, this to
Speaker 1: me is my absolute favorite, um opportunity to talk sports
Speaker 1: kind of my own show speaking with you guys well
Speaker 1: because generally brought on as a guest who's supposed to
Speaker 1: shed some insight, and I know that's what you're doing here,
Speaker 1: but I actually learn more, I think than I give
Speaker 1: out when I'm on this podcast. I love listening to
Speaker 1: you guys, and I always appreciate the opportunity. So thanks
Speaker 1: so much for having me on. Man, You're very welcome.
Speaker 1: You are the greatest for saying that. I appreciate that
Speaker 1: and We all feel the same about you, and we
Speaker 1: like coming on your show as well. So thank you,
Speaker 1: Joe who back in the day, in the fledgling days
Speaker 1: of this podcast, if I didn't have a guest right
Speaker 1: before the show, I knew who to call, Joe Ford
Speaker 1: and Ball on the double, he'd be on there. So
Speaker 1: we always appreciated that. And look at you now, multimedia celebrity. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that was always such an That was always such an
Speaker 1: insult that I would be your backup option back then.
Speaker 1: I'm talking a lie. You Uh, you would aim for
Speaker 1: someone big and if they didn't come through at the
Speaker 1: last minute, you would go to the scraps, You go
Speaker 1: to the bottom of the battle, and I'd get the
Speaker 1: phone call and I'd come through for you, time in
Speaker 1: and time out. I come through for you. Gil. It
Speaker 1: was insulting. I have not forgotten, you know. Joe is
Speaker 1: as as Andrew Brandt claims to have drafted Aaron Rodgers,
Speaker 1: I too claim now lewis emmy stuff. He did. He
Speaker 1: called Aaron Rodgers to tell him the Packers were drafting him.
Speaker 1: So I was just kidding, all right, guys. Two games
Speaker 1: NFC Championship, a f C Championship back to back on Sunday. Uh,
Speaker 1: let's just spell them out right here. The Saints were
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite consensus most of this week.
Speaker 1: It's kind of dipping down a little. It's three and
Speaker 1: a half reduced juice. It's three points with extra juice
Speaker 1: somewhere in that pocket. The total here has remained somewhat steady.
Speaker 1: Let's call it fifty seven right now. There's fifty six
Speaker 1: and a half and fifty seven kind of equally distributed.
Speaker 1: Second game, which we'll get too later, that's been three
Speaker 1: the whole time, and that total has come down a bit,
Speaker 1: but it has settled. We'll get to the Patriots in
Speaker 1: Chief's next. As far as the Rams and Saints, that's
Speaker 1: the first game on Sunday. Rams get here by virtue
Speaker 1: of their win over the Dallas Cowboys. They do so
Speaker 1: relying on the ground game. C J. Anderson, who I
Speaker 1: did not get the memo that he was a bowling ball,
Speaker 1: like I remember C. J. Anderson like being a spelt
Speaker 1: dish kind of guy. He's a bowling ball in Los
Speaker 1: Angeles has played three games for the Rams. Third game
Speaker 1: last week, twenty three carries a hundred twenty three yards
Speaker 1: two touchdowns. Todd Gurley sixteen carries a hundred fifteen yards
Speaker 1: and a touchdown that was a Rams playoff franchise record
Speaker 1: two hundred and seventy three yards rushing. So you can
Speaker 1: look at it as a huge positive for a ground game,
Speaker 1: or you can sort of take the reverse and say,
Speaker 1: I don't know if they trust Jared Goff that much.
Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll get into it with the panel here.
Speaker 1: Jared Goff by the way, fifteen eighties six. Uh. There
Speaker 1: was a theme in last week's games. Not only did
Speaker 1: all the home teams win, not only did it end
Speaker 1: up being one versus two in both conferences, but the
Speaker 1: time of possession difference was so nuts. Last week, the
Speaker 1: Rams in their game against the Cowboys thirty six minutes
Speaker 1: and thirteen seconds of possession against the Cowboys seven. The
Speaker 1: Rams advance to take on the Saints, who of course
Speaker 1: are here after spotting the Eagles fourteen points in the
Speaker 1: first quarter first nine minutes of that game, and then
Speaker 1: the Eagles only had the ball for like twelve plus
Speaker 1: minutes the rest of the way, never scored again. The
Speaker 1: Saints possessed the ball in that game for thirty seven
Speaker 1: minutes and fifty seconds for the Eagles. Michael Thomas twelve catches,
Speaker 1: franchise playoff record one seventy one yards. Saints win at Feen.
Speaker 1: Don't cover though, because Will Lutts Uh missed the fifty
Speaker 1: two yard field goal because apparently Sean Payton felt like
Speaker 1: they should just settle for that field goal on that
Speaker 1: strange third and seven call late. We'll get into all that,
Speaker 1: but it is the Saints hosting the Rams one seed
Speaker 1: at home versus the two seed. Joe, what you got?
Speaker 1: What are you thinking here? Both these games are what
Speaker 1: I call eye test games. Um, I I may. I
Speaker 1: don't need to give you a lot of trends or
Speaker 1: stats to tell you which direction I'm going. UM. A
Speaker 1: lot of games uh and bets that I end up
Speaker 1: on come through a lot of research. But I've watched
Speaker 1: enough and I've seen enough from these two uh scenarios
Speaker 1: that i know where I'm going strictly based on the
Speaker 1: eye test. First and foremost, what you saw the Rams
Speaker 1: due to the Cowboys last week? Do you have to
Speaker 1: throw that out of your mind? You cannot take that
Speaker 1: into consideration this week for a couple of reasons. First
Speaker 1: and foremost, the Dallas Cowboys were tipping their hand with
Speaker 1: their defensive fronts. Essentially, in the NFL, there are two
Speaker 1: ways to try to cause chaos in the backfield. Either
Speaker 1: you blitz or you generate pleasure with the front four.
Speaker 1: If you're not gonna blitz, and Dallas doesn't like to
Speaker 1: blitz very much, you've got to get creative with how
Speaker 1: you screw up the backfield. And one of the ways
Speaker 1: you do that is by stunting. Essentially, you take a
Speaker 1: defensive tackle, you line them up in one gap, but
Speaker 1: when the ball snap, he stunts, he goes to another gap.
Speaker 1: The idea is to confuse the offensive linemen, cause some
Speaker 1: chaos in the backfield, clogged up the running lanes, and
Speaker 1: end up either with a sack or a tackle for
Speaker 1: a loss. Basically, you're just trying to create havoc. That's
Speaker 1: what Dallas likes to do. The problem is that they
Speaker 1: have tells, and the Rams knew those tells going into
Speaker 1: that game. The Rams knew when certain dts were lined
Speaker 1: up in certain spots, They knew exactly where they were going.
Speaker 1: They were able to get that information to Jet Golf.
Speaker 1: Jared Golf is able to check into the correct play
Speaker 1: and Todd Gurley and C. J. Anderson were running free
Speaker 1: down the field. How many times did you see one
Speaker 1: of those guys get to carry up the middle and
Speaker 1: they'd get eight or nine yards before someone would even
Speaker 1: put their hands on him. Yes, exactly. And if you
Speaker 1: anyone who plays poker in this whole group, I know
Speaker 1: they do, especially Marco. If you've got a guy who's
Speaker 1: out there giving you a tell, you're just gonna sit
Speaker 1: there and melk that for everything it's worth. The Saints
Speaker 1: are not going to do that for the Rams. And
Speaker 1: if they don't allow them to have those tells, Golf
Speaker 1: is gonna have to make more plays and it's gonna
Speaker 1: be very difficult with that crowd noise for him to
Speaker 1: get Sean Payton or excuse me, Sean mcveigh's uh calls
Speaker 1: and insight coming into him, then to hear his offensive line,
Speaker 1: then to make checks. I think the spot is way
Speaker 1: too big for Jared Golf. The last time these two
Speaker 1: got together, it was a close final score, but the
Speaker 1: Saints were wrecking them in the first half. They got
Speaker 1: sloppy and let him in late. Drew Brees just turned
Speaker 1: forty years old. Think this is the last March for him.
Speaker 1: I think the Saints want this game really bad, much
Speaker 1: like the Rams do. But I don't know what the
Speaker 1: Rams are gonna be able to come come to the
Speaker 1: table with that's gonna be all that impressive. If you
Speaker 1: want golf to play well, you've got to establish the
Speaker 1: running game, and I don't really see that happening at
Speaker 1: least with any sort of consistency in the Dome. You
Speaker 1: fall behind the Saints, which i'd imagine you'll do, you're
Speaker 1: gonna find yourself in a situation where golf needs to
Speaker 1: make plays down the field, and I don't think he's
Speaker 1: capable of that. This team loves to go play action,
Speaker 1: but if you're down two scores, no one's gonna bite
Speaker 1: on your play fakes. Everyone's gonna know the throw is coming,
Speaker 1: and when it comes to the Saints. They had one
Speaker 1: bad quarter against the Eagles last week. It was the
Speaker 1: first quarter. It shouldn't come as a surprise. They were
Speaker 1: off for three weeks. They had to buy They didn't
Speaker 1: play their starters in Week seventeen. They came out sloppy
Speaker 1: and the Eagles took advantage of it. Stints eventually got
Speaker 1: the ball rolling and outgained them by like three total
Speaker 1: yards the rest of the way out. So looking at
Speaker 1: this game, if you're gonna play props, I think a
Speaker 1: lot of people are gonna be so excited on what
Speaker 1: they saw from Derson and Todd Gurley last week. I
Speaker 1: think you can fade those guys and moving the opposite direction.
Speaker 1: I laid the points with the Saints here. I like
Speaker 1: him to win this game. I like it. I like
Speaker 1: it a lot. First of all, it should be pointed
Speaker 1: out that not only does Marco play poker, but if
Speaker 1: the rodeos in town, he'll put on cowboy gear just
Speaker 1: to blend in. That's the kind of that's the kind
Speaker 1: of poker player he is just playing dumb. That's Marco Danzelo.
Speaker 1: He's actually sent pictures of this. It's phenomenal. I pretty
Speaker 1: much agree with with all of that. I don't have
Speaker 1: a play on on these games. But there's no way
Speaker 1: I'm playing the Rams. So I mean, I'm actually a
Speaker 1: lot more opinionator on this than I and then I
Speaker 1: guess I'm I'm letting on. There's no way I take
Speaker 1: the Rams. I'm with Joe on on almost all of that. Uh,
Speaker 1: it should be noted these two teams played back in
Speaker 1: November at the super Dome. Saints won that game forty
Speaker 1: five to thirty five. I don't have a very vivid
Speaker 1: recollection of that game. That's how much football is, uh
Speaker 1: just absolutely saturated in my brain. So I should have
Speaker 1: a good memory of that, but I don't. Uh. Saints
Speaker 1: one that forty five thirty five super Dome in November. Uh.
Speaker 1: And one thing about the Saints last week that I
Speaker 1: think is interesting. They looked flat when they started that
Speaker 1: game against the Eagles and they were able to overcome it.
Speaker 1: And I think that's perfect for them. The fact that
Speaker 1: they had that scare and you know, people are saying,
Speaker 1: oh that, uh, that Latta More interception when the when
Speaker 1: the Eagles were up fourteen and nothing that changed the
Speaker 1: game around. I think what changed the game around is
Speaker 1: what happened subsequent to that, because the Latta More pick
Speaker 1: simply ended in what looked to be a three and
Speaker 1: out for the Eagles at that point. But on third
Speaker 1: and one, there was a holding penalty, and excuse me,
Speaker 1: for the Saints at that point, there was there was
Speaker 1: a holding penalty on third and one at their own
Speaker 1: thirty the Saints own thirty and Doug Peterson elected to
Speaker 1: decline the penalty and give the Saints a fourth and
Speaker 1: one at their own thirty. That was the big mistake
Speaker 1: of the game. And I didn't hear them harpen on
Speaker 1: that enough on the broadcast, because they went in upon
Speaker 1: formation at their own thirty. Taysom Hill the up back,
Speaker 1: first down, and the back was on from there. They
Speaker 1: matriculated the ball down the field. It was fourteen seven
Speaker 1: and the Saints got it done from there. Marco, you
Speaker 1: agree with that that a scare might not be that
Speaker 1: bad of a thing for the Saints last week? Oh, absolutely,
Speaker 1: one thing I'll disagree with that. You know, I would
Speaker 1: have declined the penalty too. They were at their own
Speaker 1: thirty yard line. Most coaches aren't gonna go early in
Speaker 1: the ball game a gamble from your own thirty yard line.
Speaker 1: If they missed there, now granted they didn't, but if
Speaker 1: they missed there, Peyton gets crucified for going for it
Speaker 1: and given Philadelphia the ball in field goal range. Uh So,
Speaker 1: you know, it was a turning point of the game,
Speaker 1: but I think there was a bigger turning point. And
Speaker 1: uh I look at the games and from the four
Speaker 1: teams that advanced and when I get to this round,
Speaker 1: I tried to sit down and look at the games
Speaker 1: through the eyes of John Q. Public because John Q Public,
Speaker 1: we know, is gonna screw up more often than not.
Speaker 1: And the team that looked the least impressive out of
Speaker 1: that moved on with the Saints because they fell behind
Speaker 1: by fourteen. Yeah, they won, but they had to survive.
Speaker 1: You know, Jefferies having the ball go through his hands
Speaker 1: normally a shorthanded receiver and end in an interception to
Speaker 1: preserve the win. And is Joe alluded to? You know,
Speaker 1: the Saints didn't play anybody in Week seventeen, and when
Speaker 1: is the rest of the NFL gonna wake up? It
Speaker 1: cost the Rams last year and it almost cost the
Speaker 1: Saints this year. Quit resting everybody in Week seventeen because
Speaker 1: if you're that good that you can rest people in
Speaker 1: week seventeen means you've got to buy week and that's
Speaker 1: gonna result in three weeks. You can't just turn a
Speaker 1: light switch on and have these players ready to go.
Speaker 1: You need game speed, and that's too big of a gap.
Speaker 1: You gotta play these guys at least a half to
Speaker 1: get some rhythm with them. That said, people are gonna
Speaker 1: look and say, hey, this pants were lucky to survive
Speaker 1: and move on. What I saw from that game was
Speaker 1: a rusty team at the beginning. They took control of
Speaker 1: the game after the first quarter. The game changer was
Speaker 1: rolling the dice and going for the first down. Uh,
Speaker 1: deep in your own territory. But I'll tell you what.
Speaker 1: As I watched that game, when they had the third
Speaker 1: quarter and had the eight team play drive, which they
Speaker 1: constantly kept shooting themselves in in the foot and moving
Speaker 1: backwards and still moving forward and cashing it in for
Speaker 1: a touchdown, not a field goal touch getting the touchdown,
Speaker 1: I said, right there, I am looking at a championship drive.
Speaker 1: That drive, to me, is gonna put the Saints in
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Now we'll find out, you know who
Speaker 1: they match up against and which side I'll be on.
Speaker 1: But to me, that was a championship drive. And I
Speaker 1: also took away from the Rams game the game plan
Speaker 1: was perfect for them for what they did against Dallas.
Speaker 1: Dallas didn't see that coming. You know who would have
Speaker 1: thought the game plan was gonna be We're gonna run
Speaker 1: a football down your throat. Considering how good Dallas was,
Speaker 1: it stopping the run. And nobody thought C. J. Anderson
Speaker 1: was going to have the game that he had, or
Speaker 1: in my opinion, have as many carries as he had.
Speaker 1: And what that tells me is Todd Garley is not
Speaker 1: They are milking him, trying to get every last ounce
Speaker 1: they can get out of him to get to the
Speaker 1: finish line. And this week they're not going to be
Speaker 1: able to do that. There, you know. And they also
Speaker 1: the running game is Joe said, it protects Jared Goff.
Speaker 1: Jared Goff's gonna have to make plays this week. And
Speaker 1: given the fact that we've seen Jared Goff a few
Speaker 1: times this year, especially the Chicago game where he looked
Speaker 1: confused and you know, but he wasn't for the big stage.
Speaker 1: You give me a choice between Drew Brees even at forty,
Speaker 1: versus Jared Goff at this stage. And what I ford,
Speaker 1: you know, assume is not a pent Todd Gurley. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with the Saints all day, every day, all
Speaker 1: day long. I got the Saints movement on and I'm
Speaker 1: laying the points all day early day. Yeah. How many
Speaker 1: games now have you said out loud, not you personally, Marco,
Speaker 1: but any of us have said out loud, is there
Speaker 1: something wrouna with Todd Gurley? What's going on with Gurley?
Speaker 1: What's doing with Gurley? What's going on there? Because you
Speaker 1: never really know if he's hurt or not. You have
Speaker 1: to speculate he's not a uh in this ball game.
Speaker 1: By the way, last point about that thing where you
Speaker 1: where you said you would have declined it to I
Speaker 1: hear you that it was on their own thirty in
Speaker 1: that last game. The only thing that I would counter
Speaker 1: to that though, again is Doug Peterson knows more than
Speaker 1: anybody the Eagles run to the title last year. How
Speaker 1: going for broke on fourth downs and fourth and short
Speaker 1: was such a huge thing for the Eagles last year.
Speaker 1: And he asked to know that the guy at cross
Speaker 1: the field from him, Sean Payton, is just like him.
Speaker 1: That's a guy of his ilk. So really was based
Speaker 1: on the opponent. For me, it's like, oh, you know,
Speaker 1: Peyton's going for it. That was the clapper on the
Speaker 1: other side of the field. Jason Garrett, I get it.
Speaker 1: I would have done the same thing, but I'm like,
Speaker 1: I'm not letting Sean Payton do something. You know, some
Speaker 1: shenanigans there, So anyway, that's what happened, and it was
Speaker 1: the turning point of the game either way, Ace what
Speaker 1: you got here? All right? For me, this is like
Speaker 1: a best and worst case excuse me, scenario. And not
Speaker 1: to like pat myself on the back, but the truth,
Speaker 1: when you're that good at picking futures, it's no seriously,
Speaker 1: it's a gift and a curse. And what I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm seriously, I'll bullshit aside. I'm very good with futures.
Speaker 1: I've hit three of the last four World Series winners
Speaker 1: and the one I lost my teammate at the World
Speaker 1: Series the super Bowl. I've done good with I mean,
Speaker 1: I've done well with futures. And unfortunately, in the industry
Speaker 1: i'm in the it's not good. You're not supposed to
Speaker 1: give out futures because you're supposed to sell picks, and
Speaker 1: if you're good at giving out futures and your team's advance,
Speaker 1: you're not going to be able to sell picks. Fortunately,
Speaker 1: I built myself around selling results, long term results, and
Speaker 1: not picks, so I'm able to set my guys up
Speaker 1: for future success with these futures. Um. And the truth is,
Speaker 1: I don't like to give up equity. I mean with
Speaker 1: the case of the Red Sox, I had my sub bribers.
Speaker 1: I told I'm betting on top of it. I'm betting
Speaker 1: the Red Sox to win this series instead of hedging it,
Speaker 1: because I think we have the best of it. And
Speaker 1: very few times are you ever that certain you have
Speaker 1: the best of it, and when you do, don't let
Speaker 1: them go. Um. And before the season, I gave out
Speaker 1: the Saints at fifteen the one. I gave out one
Speaker 1: an FC team, one NFC team, like I do every year,
Speaker 1: and I gave the Saints at fifteen the one, and
Speaker 1: I gave the Patriots at seven to one, and both
Speaker 1: are now in the championship games. So for me, the
Speaker 1: obvious move is to hedge, you know, if if you're
Speaker 1: not sure coming into this game. Before I looked at anything,
Speaker 1: before I handicapped it, before I saw what the line
Speaker 1: they were gonna put up there, and before I checked
Speaker 1: any accouncil to see if any of my guys are moving. Um.
Speaker 1: I thought that the line should should be around four
Speaker 1: and a half. I thought, let it come out around
Speaker 1: there and see what they're gonna do with it. Um.
Speaker 1: They brought it out shorter than I thought, and I
Speaker 1: said Oh my god, I'm gonna have to bet the
Speaker 1: Saints again, especially if it's at minus three. Uh, I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna heade it. I'm gonna bet on top of
Speaker 1: it because this looks like one of the best bets
Speaker 1: I'm gonna find this entire season, because I really think
Speaker 1: it's a great spot for the Saints. I love the
Speaker 1: fact how they come off of last week again starting
Speaker 1: off slow. Um. I like that the Rams are coming
Speaker 1: in looking like they're on fire, having covered three straight games,
Speaker 1: having scored more than thirty three straight games. Um. But
Speaker 1: if you look at who they played, two of those
Speaker 1: teams were Arizona and San Francisco. I mean, prior to that,
Speaker 1: they weren't playing good football. They had lost to Chicago,
Speaker 1: they lost to Philadelphia. UM. So I mean the recency
Speaker 1: bias gives us a little bit of advantage on the Saints.
Speaker 1: They haven't covered, um since December nine against Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: So I'm like, everything sets up nicely for me to
Speaker 1: say no hedge and we're betting again. I'm betting the Saints.
Speaker 1: You guys, do what you want, um, But I think
Speaker 1: there's enough value to bet them. And then again, the
Speaker 1: worst case scenario For me, happened because Monday morning I
Speaker 1: checked the accounts and the one group that's actually done
Speaker 1: the best in the NFL, and I lost last week
Speaker 1: when I faded them on a total. Um, what do
Speaker 1: they do? They made two bets, um, and their first
Speaker 1: bet they made was the Rams plus three and a
Speaker 1: half UM. And I don't This ain't the kind of
Speaker 1: group that takes advantage upsetting up middles or manipulates. They
Speaker 1: take they make positions, that's what they do. Um. They're
Speaker 1: They're that kind of group. UM. So I know they
Speaker 1: liked the Rams for sure work um, you know at
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. And for me, I respect
Speaker 1: these guys. I when you work with people that win
Speaker 1: long term, you realize you're not going to get rich
Speaker 1: fading them. You ain't gonna piggyback them blindly. Obviously I
Speaker 1: never do that, um, But I respect them. And now
Speaker 1: that's in a position where I believe I'm gonna have
Speaker 1: to hedge this bet um for safety reasons, because there
Speaker 1: is that much equity built up and their sharp money
Speaker 1: that disagrees with me. Um. Otherwise I'm all over the Saints.
Speaker 1: I think this is a great spot for them. UM.
Speaker 1: I think they match up well. And more importantly, I'm
Speaker 1: not a trend guy, but even historically, teams in this
Speaker 1: spot have been extremely profitable. You know, when you're not
Speaker 1: a divisional team, if you haven't played him in the division,
Speaker 1: it's just like you know, inter conference or not whatever, um,
Speaker 1: And you won the first game and during the regular
Speaker 1: season and you're meeting that team again in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: The team that won the first game has won the
Speaker 1: second team fifty of eighty four times. It's happened eighty
Speaker 1: four times. They've won fifty straight up. If they're favored
Speaker 1: in the rematch, they're fifty two and thirty two. If
Speaker 1: they won the first game and then are again favored
Speaker 1: in the rematch, they're forty and twenty. They've sixty seven
Speaker 1: percent of time they've won. So I mean every trend
Speaker 1: as far as meeting the first time also supports the Saints.
Speaker 1: But straight up and against the spread are two totally
Speaker 1: different things, and in those spots against the spread, those
Speaker 1: teams had not been profitable. Even when looking at that
Speaker 1: sixty seven percent straight up mark, it's only twenty four
Speaker 1: and thirty five against the spread, So these teams have
Speaker 1: not done well. A t s in the Saints position,
Speaker 1: but they have gone on to win the game. If
Speaker 1: that trend continues and the Saints could win by one,
Speaker 1: two or three, it may fall in great for myself
Speaker 1: and maybe I could middle it. But where it stands
Speaker 1: right now, I I could share this information I and
Speaker 1: tell you with certainty, uh sharp money is on the rams.
Speaker 1: They're you know, these guys are not gonna take New Orleans.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna lay three minus twenty. That's not gonna happen.
Speaker 1: I could promise you. Um that train has left the
Speaker 1: station pretty much and it's ramps. So for me, I
Speaker 1: think I'm gonna have to hedge this one. And I
Speaker 1: didn't want to because I like to be in New
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints a lot. I really did. Wow that that
Speaker 1: took a turn at the end. I didn't expect to come.
Speaker 1: That was interesting. Yeah, I'm just gonna be I'm honest, dude,
Speaker 1: I tell like you know what I meant. No one
Speaker 1: likes someone that stands on the fence, and I'm not
Speaker 1: trying to argue both sides at all. I love the
Speaker 1: fucking Saints. I think Saints minus three minus twenty is
Speaker 1: a ton of value. But again, I've done this long
Speaker 1: enough to have respect for certain people and that's one
Speaker 1: of the groups that I again. I dated him last week.
Speaker 1: It didn't turn out well, and no reason to do
Speaker 1: that again. I will not be touching the rams at all,
Speaker 1: as always, poor Ford. Today's show comes from Bookmaker dot eu.
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Speaker 1: I swear by Bookmaker the best betting experience there is
Speaker 1: checking out seat for yourself. Game two on Sunday, a
Speaker 1: f C Championship, New England at Kansas City. This is
Speaker 1: Kansas City minus three. It's been three. The whole way
Speaker 1: open at fifty seven and a half. I believe it
Speaker 1: was uh fifty seven, let's call it. It dropped all
Speaker 1: the way down to fifty five on speculation on a
Speaker 1: weather forecast. Actually everybody got out there doppler and saw
Speaker 1: that there was gonna be subarctic temperatures. Perhaps I actually
Speaker 1: looked it up. The difference between Arctic and Subarctic apparently
Speaker 1: go to the Arctic circle and then you go further
Speaker 1: south in that Subarctic. I have no idea. Anyways, supposed
Speaker 1: to be very cold, but then they've kind of backed
Speaker 1: off on that a little, So the total dropped down
Speaker 1: all the way to fifty five. Now it has bumped
Speaker 1: a little higher to fifty five and a half. That's
Speaker 1: where it sits right now. For the second of two games,
Speaker 1: the a f C ch title game between the Chiefs
Speaker 1: and the Patriots. For the Patriots, it is their eighth
Speaker 1: straight conference title game. It's mind boggling. You know. Um,
Speaker 1: when I was a kid and I said this on
Speaker 1: a numbers game the other day, I used to joke
Speaker 1: as a Redskins fan, I used to say, Hey, if
Speaker 1: if Lawrence Taylor, if Joe Gibbs had Lawrence Taylor, the
Speaker 1: Redskins would have won like thirteen super Bowls. That was
Speaker 1: the number I used to just throw out. This is
Speaker 1: not the super Bowl, but it's the doorstep of the
Speaker 1: super Bowl. And this is the thirteenth time, that actual number,
Speaker 1: the thirteenth time that Belichick and Brady have gone to
Speaker 1: a conference title game. That is sick. That is like,
Speaker 1: you can't even wrap your brain around that these two
Speaker 1: teams did meet in Foxborough Week six. We do remember
Speaker 1: that game, Patriots forty three to forty winners. Chiefs came
Speaker 1: back in that game. Patriots had to hold on for victory. Um,
Speaker 1: Patriots come here after just absolutely destroying the Chargers on
Speaker 1: Sunday morning. I don't know what Anthony Lynn and that
Speaker 1: coaching staff was doing, but they didn't adjust. They had
Speaker 1: like seven d backs at first, then sixty Backs, They
Speaker 1: didn't adjust anything at all, and then their whole offensive
Speaker 1: game plan seemed like Philip Rivers just throws the ball
Speaker 1: up in praise. So that game was over very quick.
Speaker 1: Patriots role at home, but keep in mind the Patriots
Speaker 1: on the road this year, we're just three and five
Speaker 1: straight up. Much different team at home. And then there's
Speaker 1: the Chiefs the day before they get here by destroying
Speaker 1: the Colts. I don't know what Andrew Luck story is,
Speaker 1: but he was horrific, just absolutely miserable. You talked to
Speaker 1: Arc about that Jared golf game in Chicago where he
Speaker 1: acted like it was thirty below instead of thirty two
Speaker 1: degrees fahrenheit. That's what Andrew Luck looked like. He was
Speaker 1: awful in that game. And then juxtaposed against Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: doing that side arm thing that Travis Kelsey were like,
Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like that in my life. Mahomes
Speaker 1: forty one for two, seventy eight, Damian Williams twenty five,
Speaker 1: carries a hundred twenty nine yards and a touchdown, Kelsey
Speaker 1: seven catches in a hundred and eight yards. But again
Speaker 1: that time of possession thing. Again, it was such a
Speaker 1: weird weekend. The Patriots. They had the ball thirty eight
Speaker 1: minutes and twenty seconds against the Chargers against excuse me,
Speaker 1: against yeah, against pardon me. And then the Chiefs they
Speaker 1: had the ball for thirty nine minutes and forty nine
Speaker 1: seconds against the Colts. Colts only had it for just
Speaker 1: over twenty minutes. That was the weirdest thing about last weekend.
Speaker 1: We can go entire NFL weekends and not see one
Speaker 1: game in a full slate where a team possessed the
Speaker 1: ball for thirty six minutes or more. All four of
Speaker 1: these winners did last week, Chiefs by three. Marco. We start, well,
Speaker 1: you know, you know I talked to when I opened
Speaker 1: the first game. I said, you know, you look at
Speaker 1: the four games last week, and you know the Saints
Speaker 1: were the least impressive of the four. We have the
Speaker 1: two most impressive squaring off right here, no question about it.
Speaker 1: And for New England, was that the most lopsided thirteen
Speaker 1: point when you've ever seen I mean it should have been,
Speaker 1: you know, it was a score that should have been
Speaker 1: like thirty points and somehow the final score ended up
Speaker 1: to be thirteen. But here's the thing, and you know,
Speaker 1: hindsight is always great, and we all mentioned it beforehand. Um,
Speaker 1: the Chargers looked like a team that was playing their
Speaker 1: third straight road game, fourth in the last five weeks,
Speaker 1: looked like a team that just flew from the East
Speaker 1: Coast to the West Coast back to the East coast,
Speaker 1: and they were a warm weather team playing in cold weather.
Speaker 1: But yet we all wanted to ignore it. We just
Speaker 1: that it's okay because this New England team is not
Speaker 1: that good and this is Philip Rivers best team he's
Speaker 1: ever had. Well, don't we look like idiots now, because
Speaker 1: that's exactly what if you looked at it like, you know,
Speaker 1: unto public, would all of that team right to play
Speaker 1: in the last week's game? Same thing with the Colts. Hey,
Speaker 1: we got a dome team out in you know, a
Speaker 1: blizzard and they're playing their third game in a row
Speaker 1: on the road, and look what happened. But now it's
Speaker 1: this week and we talked about all that history that
Speaker 1: you ran off with the Patriots. The most mind boggling
Speaker 1: part about everything you said not the fact that just
Speaker 1: how many times they've been here and their playoff record
Speaker 1: and everything else. The fact of the matter is almost
Speaker 1: all of those games were at home. This is a
Speaker 1: team that's always had home field advantage, and I got crucified,
Speaker 1: uh the Twitter trolls, which you know, you reached a
Speaker 1: new level, uh ConTroll nous whenever guys put and you
Speaker 1: use the quotation marks and quote you from a video
Speaker 1: or a podcast something that you actually said, just to
Speaker 1: throw it back into your face. And they threw back
Speaker 1: into my face when I said the Patriots are here
Speaker 1: and have home field advantage last week simply because they
Speaker 1: play in the worst division in football. You know, when
Speaker 1: you play the Jets of the Bills in the Dolphins
Speaker 1: place a year, that's six games that you're gonna pad
Speaker 1: your record in stats. And well they pointed that out,
Speaker 1: but you know it's still a fact. It is, and
Speaker 1: that's why they have home field. They don't have home
Speaker 1: field here. And if you go back to that game
Speaker 1: at Foxboro earlier in the year, that's the game that
Speaker 1: all of us professionals jumped on our pedestal and said,
Speaker 1: here is where Patrick Mahomes becomes human. You know, that
Speaker 1: was his first it was his second big stage. His
Speaker 1: first big stage was the Monday night game at Denver
Speaker 1: and he led them back and had that crazy left
Speaker 1: handed throw the complete a pass. We were all at
Speaker 1: Monday Night football childling down on wings and Zeppel's guilt.
Speaker 1: Remember that his left hand, remember that. As we're dusting
Speaker 1: off powdered sugar, office shared this is the situation. He
Speaker 1: lived to the um, the big stage. He got off
Speaker 1: to a slow start, but he didn't let it, you know,
Speaker 1: overwhelm him. He brought the team back and the only
Speaker 1: mistakes he made in the second half was scoring the
Speaker 1: last touchdown too quickly. He left a minute fifteen or
Speaker 1: twenty five on the clock. Whatever it was uh for
Speaker 1: Brady to go down and get the winning score. But
Speaker 1: if you go back and look at that game, there
Speaker 1: were some things that you know, stood out to me. Um.
Speaker 1: They were minus one in the turnover department, No big
Speaker 1: deal there. But do you realize that when I watched
Speaker 1: that team, it didn't dawn on me. And I went
Speaker 1: back and looked at the box score. New England never
Speaker 1: got called for a penalty that entire game. Not one
Speaker 1: time they have a penalty in the game. And we
Speaker 1: talked about home and road dichotomy. There are not two
Speaker 1: teams in the NFL that has a bigger home road
Speaker 1: dichotomy than these two teams New England offensively at home.
Speaker 1: We've talked about this with Ben Roethlisberger and Steelers of
Speaker 1: several times this year that offense for New England scores
Speaker 1: thirty three points at home, they only scored twenty one
Speaker 1: point six on the road. Defensively, New England sixteen point
Speaker 1: four at home on the road twenty four in Kansas
Speaker 1: City is the same way. I'm going to Kansas City here.
Speaker 1: I really had a hard time with this one at
Speaker 1: the beginning. I was back and forth because you know,
Speaker 1: it's hard to go against Belichick and Brady. You know,
Speaker 1: last week was the first time that the books, I
Speaker 1: think all see than actually needed the Patriots, that they
Speaker 1: were rooting for the Patriots. There was that much money.
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you gil last week and this is
Speaker 1: this is something I'll give a tip to the listeners
Speaker 1: that have screens that they can watch the line movement.
Speaker 1: I knew I was a loser on the Chargers about
Speaker 1: forty five minutes before kickoff, and it was too late,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, we've given the game out. I
Speaker 1: bet in the game already. But if you watch your
Speaker 1: screen and you watch Vegas, and just watch the Vegas
Speaker 1: books everybody was sitting at four on the New England
Speaker 1: game except one book moved to three and a half.
Speaker 1: In that book I liked I affectionately refer to as
Speaker 1: the bow Dog of the strip. Was Station's casino. That's
Speaker 1: they get. You know, they're all locals that that stations.
Speaker 1: You don't have the big guys going to stations and
Speaker 1: when everybody loves the dogs and the squares love the
Speaker 1: dog and station has to move off a four Chargers
Speaker 1: were dead in the water. I'm going with Dacy here.
Speaker 1: I think they get the job done. Um, you're never
Speaker 1: gonna be having an easy go of it going against Belichick,
Speaker 1: but I've got Kansas City. I'll lay the points. And
Speaker 1: to be honest with you, everybody that I've talked to
Speaker 1: have power raided this game that the number should be
Speaker 1: four and a half or five. But because it's New
Speaker 1: England and Brady, we're seeing this three good bow dog
Speaker 1: reference in there. Marco, I like that old school bow dog. Yeah.
Speaker 1: You know the fact about the home road splits We've
Speaker 1: been talking about on the podcast all year and on
Speaker 1: a numbers game at Visa, and uh, never a bigger
Speaker 1: chasm in home road splits than there has been this
Speaker 1: year with NFL teams, and I like to liken it
Speaker 1: to the NBA. You know, we all take for granted
Speaker 1: that NBA refs because the crowds right on top of them.
Speaker 1: They rule in favor of the home team because you know,
Speaker 1: they're humans. And there's makeup calls also in the NBA.
Speaker 1: If Lebron doesn't get faut doesn't get the foul call
Speaker 1: one time down the court, he'll get it the next time.
Speaker 1: I think we saw that rampantly in the NFL this year.
Speaker 1: We saw makeup calls in the NFL all the time.
Speaker 1: Home teams just get the flags and you're not gonna
Speaker 1: you know, you're not gonna be upset. Having the home
Speaker 1: teams in these two games add that into the mix
Speaker 1: as well. One last thing about the Chargers. I was
Speaker 1: part of the Draft Kings Sports Betting National Championship last week.
Speaker 1: I participated in it, and I was among the group
Speaker 1: of people who were not at the top but still
Speaker 1: were alive. And so on Sunday, we were all in
Speaker 1: Gopher broke mode. We were all prepared to go to
Speaker 1: zero by rollover bets and uh, you know, we're all
Speaker 1: making ridiculous bets that we would never make in real
Speaker 1: life for a chance to actually place. And those of
Speaker 1: us who had the Chargers in some form, not straight
Speaker 1: but necessarily, but also in parlays and stuff. It was
Speaker 1: just so funny how quickly we were done. Randy McKay,
Speaker 1: who's placed in contest in top tens many times, he
Speaker 1: said before the game, he goes up to me right
Speaker 1: before he goes, well, Gil, just your average dollar parlay
Speaker 1: and with the Charges involved, let's see how this goes.
Speaker 1: And uh, five minutes later, five it's into the game,
Speaker 1: he's like, well, at least that was painless. You know.
Speaker 1: It was just such a destruction of a game. A
Speaker 1: Charger should be ashamed of themselves. Yeah. I was so
Speaker 1: shocked at this point. Spread. And here's why. The both
Speaker 1: matchups they've played earlier in the season. Unlike the New
Speaker 1: Orleans and Rams, which are being played in the same place,
Speaker 1: this one is switching venues now. In the Ram Saints,
Speaker 1: what happened was it was a three point win pretty
Speaker 1: much right. Um, but look at the line adjustment. If
Speaker 1: you remember, the Rams went into New Orleans is two
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites in that game. They're now
Speaker 1: three three and a half point dog. That's a huge adjustment.
Speaker 1: You look at New England in Kansas City, not much
Speaker 1: of an adjustment, pretty much home field advantage and that's it, right,
Speaker 1: Um that was shocking. More shocking than me was the
Speaker 1: fact Pinnacle went to open this game even lower and
Speaker 1: that idea lasted less than a minute, about fifty seconds
Speaker 1: it lasted. Um, So to me, I was just shocked.
Speaker 1: And whether it was the anticipation that the money was
Speaker 1: going to come in on New England, I think that's
Speaker 1: the only way I could defend that because power rating wise,
Speaker 1: I agree. Will Marcos said, Um, I don't think any
Speaker 1: oddsmakers or even Bettingstondo gets power ratings are going to
Speaker 1: reflect at this time of the season. New England's, you know,
Speaker 1: a better team than Kansas City, and pretty much where
Speaker 1: this line opened and where it's sitting pretty much what
Speaker 1: it's telling you. I mean, they're pretty much evenly matched,
Speaker 1: if if not even shading it towards New England because
Speaker 1: Kansas City's getting no respect here for for home field advantage,
Speaker 1: and to me, I think that's wrong. Listen, the reason
Speaker 1: New England won that game is the same reason the
Speaker 1: Saints beat the Rams. Forget the turnovers and all that.
Speaker 1: It's they ran the football and held the football. They
Speaker 1: they held the football almost thirteen minutes longer than Kansas City,
Speaker 1: New England did, and New Orleans did the same thing
Speaker 1: to the Rants. They were able to hold onto the football,
Speaker 1: have long drives and more or less dictate tempo um,
Speaker 1: and it worked out for them wonderfully. They both won
Speaker 1: uh in this spot. I for me, it's simple. If
Speaker 1: I didn't have a future on New England, my money
Speaker 1: would be on Kansas City. Now that I have a
Speaker 1: future on New England, my money is definitely on Kansas City.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet that money line. Um, I'm gonna wait.
Speaker 1: I think that money line is gonna drop. I think
Speaker 1: a lot of New England bettors are going to take
Speaker 1: them on the money line. Um. I think you're gonna
Speaker 1: see a ton of New England money come in. I
Speaker 1: think the books are gonna be comfortable with that. Um.
Speaker 1: And the reason for it is their future book. If
Speaker 1: you look at the future book for most and I
Speaker 1: know it differs from book the book, um, but exposure
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs is pretty much nil um from everything
Speaker 1: I've heard, and the exposure is New England and even
Speaker 1: RAMS in New Orleans is worse for Super Bowl winners
Speaker 1: than Kansas City. So you have to factor that in
Speaker 1: and how they're going to create the lines moving forward
Speaker 1: and how they did for this game based on that exposure.
Speaker 1: So I think that's the reason we're seeing this lw
Speaker 1: of a line because I think they should be higher.
Speaker 1: So for me, I like Kansas City in this spot. Um,
Speaker 1: I think the rand the excuse me, New Orleans is
Speaker 1: the best team in the NFL, the best of the
Speaker 1: four remaining, but that doesn't mean you're gonna go on
Speaker 1: or win the Super Bowl. We know in the NFL
Speaker 1: they play one game, a lot of randomness involved, um,
Speaker 1: so anything could happen. But I think Kansas City is
Speaker 1: the right side here. My only fear is Andy Reid.
Speaker 1: You know, what does he do if things don't go
Speaker 1: his way? What does he do if he falls behind
Speaker 1: like New Orleans did four team nothing last week? You
Speaker 1: know That's the only thing it scares me. Other than that,
Speaker 1: I think it's again Kansas City's game to lose. All
Speaker 1: the trendspoint in that direction. Um, like they're playing better football,
Speaker 1: and I just think New England is really overvalued in
Speaker 1: this spot coming off the wind like they did against Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: So Kansas City, man, they're going to the super Bowl,
Speaker 1: That's what I think. And again, subarctic temperature is previously predicted.
Speaker 1: Now it's supposed to be about twenty five degrees so
Speaker 1: and that's what I want to add real quick. Sorry,
Speaker 1: I said. The second bet they made um that I
Speaker 1: saw the accounts right away and obviously is the under
Speaker 1: in New England Kansas City. Of the reason I don't
Speaker 1: pass that along is because I don't I don't moves
Speaker 1: that are based on weather. I don't trust them because
Speaker 1: nine times out of ten, I can tell you from experience,
Speaker 1: they buy back the other side off screen about ten
Speaker 1: minutes before kickoff. Nine out of ten times. The only
Speaker 1: time they sit on the position is if it's there's
Speaker 1: a lot of wind, I mean a ton of wind,
Speaker 1: or it's just that bad like the vision, like the
Speaker 1: wind or the cold, the snow, the vision is impaired.
Speaker 1: That's exactly what dude told me. That it's really up
Speaker 1: there when it comes to moving lines, and he said,
Speaker 1: they jumped off of these. So this line that's down
Speaker 1: the fifty five once it got the fifty five. You
Speaker 1: saw it come back up, and that's exactly what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: It's the guys that got under sixty, they're now going
Speaker 1: to go back over fifty five. So going that under
Speaker 1: sixty was not a position as far as oh we
Speaker 1: love the under, that's where we're sticking on. It was
Speaker 1: strictly the market's going to move because of the weather.
Speaker 1: Let's get out ahead of that move and let's set
Speaker 1: ourselves up with a nice middle. And that's what happened.
Speaker 1: So don't don't don't fall into that total movement as
Speaker 1: being like, oh, they're steaming the under. As I was
Speaker 1: going to say, I'm not happy with my under position
Speaker 1: because I do have a bet on the on the
Speaker 1: under in that game anticipating that weather. Uh, and I
Speaker 1: am now rooting for a New England first drive that
Speaker 1: ends up in nothing and then I can buy out
Speaker 1: of that. I'm not nearly as happy with that, knowing
Speaker 1: that it's twenty five degrees. And by the way, can
Speaker 1: I just say this, handicappers always judge for their record.
Speaker 1: Does anybody keep track of Weatherman's records? By the way,
Speaker 1: someone should do this. Someone should totally do this. How
Speaker 1: bad are they I know it was like a week out,
Speaker 1: but still anyway, maybe Rufus could go on a rant
Speaker 1: ones that don't have a winning record. Yea. By the way,
Speaker 1: for for anybody who wants to hear the fallout of
Speaker 1: the sports betting National Championship controversy, I did have Rufus
Speaker 1: Peabody on a numbers game on Monday to express his
Speaker 1: side of things. And I did have Johnny Avello on
Speaker 1: from Draft Kings formerly of the Wind now at Draft
Speaker 1: Kings on Wednesday. Both are available in podcast form. The
Speaker 1: Rufus part is on my uh feed at Beating the
Speaker 1: book Johnny Avella we had snippets from, but that's also
Speaker 1: available at Visa dot com. So interesting. Maybe I'll put
Speaker 1: those two things into a podcast at some point. People
Speaker 1: can judge for themselves, because I do not think we've
Speaker 1: heard the last of the Draft Kings National Sports Betting
Speaker 1: Championship controversy. Joe Forton Baugh New England at Kansas City.
Speaker 1: What do you think? I will be the first to
Speaker 1: admit when I struggle with wagers and my college football
Speaker 1: record this year with right around five hundred, I could
Speaker 1: not get it going with college foot but I've had
Speaker 1: a decent season in the pros. And the reason I'm
Speaker 1: highlighting that is because the last month of the season,
Speaker 1: I've been able to follow something that I just it's
Speaker 1: one of those comfort things. Again, it doesn't require a
Speaker 1: ton of analysis. It's just the eye test, and it's
Speaker 1: been working out for me. Left and right. There is
Speaker 1: so much recency bias surrounding the Los Angeles Chargers. It's
Speaker 1: it's it's been mind blowing to me. Go back a
Speaker 1: little over a month. The Chargers go to Kansas City
Speaker 1: on the Thursday night. They come back late to win
Speaker 1: that game after falling behind fourteen nothing in the first quarter.
Speaker 1: Then the talking narrative the next day is that the
Speaker 1: Chargers are the best team in the a f C.
Speaker 1: Watch out if they get the one seed, they're finally
Speaker 1: going to the super Bowl. Right the next week, after
Speaker 1: all that talk, Baltimore goes to Los Angeles and beats
Speaker 1: the Chargers. That The following that game, the narrative all
Speaker 1: week was watch out for the Ravens. Nobody wants to
Speaker 1: face the Ravens in the playoffs. They're they're they're gonna
Speaker 1: be a really tough out. So you've got all these
Speaker 1: people betting the Ravens when the Chargers have to go
Speaker 1: to Baltimore. Never Mind the fact that it was obvious,
Speaker 1: or at least to me. I I don't want to
Speaker 1: sound arragan, even though I know I'm coming across that way.
Speaker 1: Never remind the fact that the Chargers I had just
Speaker 1: seen that bullshit read option that Lamar Jackson was running.
Speaker 1: Never mind the fact that you know they had two
Speaker 1: weeks of preparation to get ready for that. Everyone up
Speaker 1: the Ravens and what happened. The Chargers went in there
Speaker 1: with the game plan and they absolutely shut down the
Speaker 1: office or the offense. So now here's the new narrative.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, the Chargers just took out the Ravens.
Speaker 1: The Chargers team is legit, New England's old. They're gonna
Speaker 1: go to Foxborough and win. Now, let's forget about the
Speaker 1: fact that the Patriots have two weeks to get ready.
Speaker 1: Forget about the fact how the Patriots perform at home.
Speaker 1: Forget about the fact that the Chargers are going back
Speaker 1: to the East Coast for an early start time for
Speaker 1: the second week in a row. Everybody likes the Chargers
Speaker 1: with the points. Here comes Brady destroying everybody. Everybody and
Speaker 1: like you guys mentioned, so many people uh sided with
Speaker 1: the Chargers there, and at least you were able to
Speaker 1: realize early that that it it wasn't a good bet
Speaker 1: that they were just gonna get hammered. Anthony Lynn is
Speaker 1: a good motivator as a head coach, but he's not
Speaker 1: a next as an old guy. They went into that
Speaker 1: game playing zone coverage on defense. They made zero in
Speaker 1: game adjustments. They didn't try to do anything. They just
Speaker 1: stuck with their plan and hope that they'd be better.
Speaker 1: They have a better offense than the Patriots, they have
Speaker 1: a better defense than the Patriots. They have so much
Speaker 1: more talent than New England. But they had no chance
Speaker 1: in that game. It's like son Zoos says in the
Speaker 1: Art of War, what is it? All battles are one?
Speaker 1: Before anyone fires a shot, before anyone takes the field,
Speaker 1: all battles are one. The Chargers were dead in the
Speaker 1: water before that game started. But now that New England
Speaker 1: took out the big bad Chargers, everyone's talking about how
Speaker 1: we shouldn't have forgot about the Patriots. We should they
Speaker 1: they eight years in a row in the a f
Speaker 1: C Championship game. They're so good how do we forget
Speaker 1: about this? Uh? You know, and you in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: the struggles and big spots. Bullshit. The Patriots are slow.
Speaker 1: Had anyone watched them play, They are a slow football team.
Speaker 1: They're slow on offense, they're slow on defense. They've got Thrady. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but he doesn't move around the pocket the way he
Speaker 1: used to. I mean he he will slow back there.
Speaker 1: And Belichick can put together a great game plan this week,
Speaker 1: No doubt he's gonna have a great game plan. But
Speaker 1: there is so much speed on behalf of Tangas City.
Speaker 1: And you've got such a big arm in Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 1: This is why every year at draft time you're always
Speaker 1: hearing about arm strength, because you've got to be able
Speaker 1: to throw in the weather. You can't go to the
Speaker 1: a f C. North with a noodle arm like Cult
Speaker 1: McCoy and think you're gonna survive. You gotta be Ben Roethlisberger.
Speaker 1: You gotta be Joe Flacco. You need the big arm
Speaker 1: in the weather. Mahomes has got that. There's all this
Speaker 1: talk about weather this week. I don't think it hurts
Speaker 1: Kansas City at all. They got a big arm quarterback
Speaker 1: who can still make all the throws. We saw it
Speaker 1: last week against Indie. Everyone thought Indie was gonna be
Speaker 1: this tough out and the Chiefs stopped them into the
Speaker 1: ground early in that game. So the way I'm seeing
Speaker 1: it here between the eye test on New England, it's
Speaker 1: just not as good a team as we've seen in
Speaker 1: the past, a slow football team. That combined with the
Speaker 1: fact that I think people are overvaluing New England based
Speaker 1: on what they saw against the Chargers last week, that
Speaker 1: recency biased thing, I can't shake it. I like New
Speaker 1: I like Kansas City here. I like him relatively comfortably.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna play a smart football game. They're
Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of crowd noise. They finally got
Speaker 1: the damn monkey off their back by winning a game
Speaker 1: at home. This is it. Play loose. They went to Foxborough.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Mahomes isn't gonna be afraid of the
Speaker 1: big spot. He's played in big spots all year. He
Speaker 1: doesn't really seem to get rattled. He makes mistakes, sure,
Speaker 1: but he doesn't play like a quarterback who's starting for
Speaker 1: his first season and only second year in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I'll lay the points. I like Kansas City and I
Speaker 1: think Andy Reid trusts him implicitly. It's a different Andy
Speaker 1: Reid with Patrick Mahomes. I think he gets that. One
Speaker 1: thing they're my San Diego excuse me, my Los Angeles
Speaker 1: Charger trajectory is that I thought they were the best
Speaker 1: team in the a f C even before that Chief's
Speaker 1: upset when they went in on a Thursday, I beat him.
Speaker 1: So when that happened, I looked like a genius with
Speaker 1: my futures tickets. And then they beat Baltimore in the
Speaker 1: playoffs again, I was all over the Charges, bigger genius.
Speaker 1: And then last week teasing the Chargers, I look like
Speaker 1: a raging idiot. So that's how it That's how it goes.
Speaker 1: They were the they were the most talented team in
Speaker 1: the ANFC. They might be the most talented team in
Speaker 1: the NFL. But they go cheap on coaching. Yep, the
Speaker 1: Spanos family has always gone cheap on coaching, and it
Speaker 1: always comes back to bite them in the ass. They
Speaker 1: are they lack so much attention to detail. Look no
Speaker 1: further than special teams. The teams in the NFL with
Speaker 1: good special teams are the teams that pay attention to detail.
Speaker 1: That's something that that Belichick always prides himself in you
Speaker 1: saw what happened with the Saints against the Eagles. There's
Speaker 1: this great video out there of that Saints Eagles conversion
Speaker 1: with Taysom Hill. The Saints were studying the tape of
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles punt return a team and Fletcher Cox
Speaker 1: they noticed took those plays off. He's one of the
Speaker 1: interior defensive linemen and on the tape they saw at
Speaker 1: the Bears game, as soon as the ball snapped he
Speaker 1: just kind of stands up and waits. So when they
Speaker 1: designed that play for the Faith, they ran directly at
Speaker 1: Fletcher Cox, who stood up and didn't attack the line,
Speaker 1: and they were able to get good push and get
Speaker 1: the first down. That's attention to detail. The Chargers two
Speaker 1: weeks in a in a row had lousy teams in
Speaker 1: the in the Raiders and the Broncos convert a fake
Speaker 1: punt on them. Now, I get if you get caught
Speaker 1: sneezing once, but how the hell do you get caught
Speaker 1: the next week on another faith punt? Like, how did
Speaker 1: you not address that all week in practice? How is
Speaker 1: that not a major focal point? The Chargers are just
Speaker 1: one of those teams Anthony Lan's a good guy and
Speaker 1: he's a good motivator, but they don't pay attention to detail.
Speaker 1: They don't make in game adjustments. And until they figured
Speaker 1: that sort of thing out there, all that talent's gonna
Speaker 1: be wasted. I'll step out even further. They were ill
Speaker 1: prepared for so many games this year. They dug themselves
Speaker 1: holes in almost every game. It seemed like even the
Speaker 1: game where they upset the Chiefs, they were down fourteen
Speaker 1: and nothing in that game they had to overcome that.
Speaker 1: So they were ill prepared. They made no adjustments, as
Speaker 1: you point out. And here's the other thing that no
Speaker 1: one ever seems to ask. I asked Michael Lombardi this
Speaker 1: on Visa, and I asked this of Warren Sharp this morning.
Speaker 1: Do you think that that coaching staff goes back after
Speaker 1: a game like the one about against the Patriots and
Speaker 1: they actually delve into the reasons why it happened, or
Speaker 1: do they just come out and like, well, just didn't
Speaker 1: work out, we just didn't execute. And Lauren points out
Speaker 1: they have no analytics team, like they don't even get
Speaker 1: that having seven d backs or six d backs, like,
Speaker 1: you can't if you don't have that information. If you
Speaker 1: don't know that on a granular level, like it's probably
Speaker 1: probably more the ladder than the former, Like you just
Speaker 1: don't really understand why you truly lost the game like that,
Speaker 1: and you're just hoping Philip Rivers bails you out every time.
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers, by the way, put him in the Hall
Speaker 1: of Fame. Not his fault that that happened to the Chargers.
Speaker 1: All right, gentlemen, So here's the deal, So look aheadline
Speaker 1: from the Westgate the Chiefs, excuse me, The Saints would
Speaker 1: be one and a half point favorites against either the
Speaker 1: Chiefs of the Patriots, and the Rams would be pick
Speaker 1: ums with either the Chiefs of the Patriots. Uh. That
Speaker 1: could change based on what happens this week, obviously injuries,
Speaker 1: based on the nature of the performance, if if one
Speaker 1: team blows out the other, or if it's a squeaker.
Speaker 1: But those are interesting lines to me. Just one and
Speaker 1: a half on the Saints in both cases. And I
Speaker 1: don't know that it shouldn't be a coin flip with
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. If it's the Saints and the Chiefs, what
Speaker 1: might the total be in the Super Bowl? And we're
Speaker 1: used to saying all, you know, we used to having
Speaker 1: all these big bets on sides in Super Bowl history,
Speaker 1: millions of dollars on one side or the other. We've
Speaker 1: never ever had big bets on totals before, and I
Speaker 1: think that could happen come Super Bowl time, no matter
Speaker 1: who gets there, if it's certainly if it's the Chiefs
Speaker 1: versus either the NFC opponents. Gentlemen, the schedule is this
Speaker 1: two weeks the super Bowl prop and game megapod next week.
Speaker 1: Vegas Lifestyle, A Man's Guide to Send City, the ninth
Speaker 1: annual edition, ninth ace. Do you have something planned all? Absolutely? Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of things we need to discuss. I
Speaker 1: don't like where where things are headed. Okay, I don't know.
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to put to it. I don't know
Speaker 1: what that means, but that should be fun. We'll bring
Speaker 1: in Meltzer like Seltzer, Mark Meltzer Man about town. He's
Speaker 1: got all the information. So for those who don't know,
Speaker 1: again who've missed it the previous eight years. It's about
Speaker 1: restaurants in Vegas. It's about you know, steakhouses specifically, but
Speaker 1: restaurants in general where those of us go, the restaurants
Speaker 1: we love in Las Vegas. We do. We used to
Speaker 1: do nightclubs, but now we're all like, you know, old
Speaker 1: old cockers, so we don't do nightclubs as much anymore.
Speaker 1: We used to do day clubs. They tune in for
Speaker 1: two things. They want to hear my steak recommendation. Then
Speaker 1: when I'm done, it's all VR. Okay, Yeah, we want
Speaker 1: to hear about strippers, dat and roll, you know where
Speaker 1: to go, you know, buying school books for girls. You
Speaker 1: know it. God, Yes, we'll WORKO was saying crescendos and
Speaker 1: I hesitate to use that word into VR going off
Speaker 1: about say, the underbelly of Las Vegas. And through the
Speaker 1: years he has given us opinions on things that God knows,
Speaker 1: we didn't even know existed. So we look forward to
Speaker 1: that and Ace is the star of that show. So
Speaker 1: that's next week on the show. We'll probably have it
Speaker 1: out on Wednesday for Marco D'Angelo from Wager Talk, Ace
Speaker 1: out of the Sports Betty Diaspora, and Joe forton Ball
Speaker 1: once again. If you're in San Francisco in the Bay Area,
Speaker 1: or you can catch them online, it's nine point seven
Speaker 1: the game in San Francisco. What's the website you are
Speaker 1: L for that, Joe seven the game gil no no,
Speaker 1: no no, the actual U R L for the for
Speaker 1: the radio station, Yeah, for the radio station game dot com?
Speaker 1: Thank you? Was that that difficult? Like to eight teeth Jesus,
Speaker 1: I heard the question, I was like, I've gotta be,
Speaker 1: I gotta be, I gotta be missed hearing him. I
Speaker 1: didn't mean to get audio about that. I thought, just
Speaker 1: trying to promote his his radio stations, for God's sakes.
Speaker 1: And then and then of course it's the sharp six
Speaker 1: D covers dot com available where all podcasts are distributed.
Speaker 1: Joe does a great job on that show. What do
Speaker 1: you do? Weekly shows on that The podcast is generally
Speaker 1: it rotates between two or three a week football seas
Speaker 1: and generally about three and you know, we'll cover a
Speaker 1: lot more coming up here. We gotta get into some
Speaker 1: basketball everything else UFC. I know the Ponies are coming
Speaker 1: up in a couple of months. Marco is always nice
Speaker 1: enough to jump onto that and hand out some winners.
Speaker 1: So it rotates. We try to get some stuff early
Speaker 1: in the week some and some stuff late in the weekend.
Speaker 1: All right, thank you, sir, appreciate your time. As always,
Speaker 1: the great Joe forton Ball our favorite through the years,
Speaker 1: no kidding, our favorite on this podcast of all time.
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets this weekend, whether a
Speaker 1: f C, NFC or both, and thank you so much
Speaker 1: for living battock back tap ba bat fan batoo