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Speaker 1: Search Bloomberg Global News. The headlines crossing g UH gap,
Speaker 1: suspending deliveries to Russia and moving deliveries to Port Southern
Speaker 1: and Eastern ports specifically. And then you've get Disney uh
Speaker 1: taking steps to pause businesses in Russia that includes content
Speaker 1: and product licening licensing excuse me, and it also includes
Speaker 1: Disney cruise line activities. And then you have Tim our
Speaker 1: most read story on the Bloomberg and this has to
Speaker 1: do with the Wall Street Banks Goldman Sachses who were
Speaker 1: specifically talking about it. And it's an exclusive from shrined
Speaker 1: Raja and Sally bake Well as finance team leader for
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Near she's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Sally,
Speaker 1: you edited this story from shri Um. Talk to us
Speaker 1: a little bit about the significance of actually Goldman exiting
Speaker 1: Russia and what are the details with with an exit?
Speaker 1: Is this like done with Russia indefinitely or bring us
Speaker 1: into it. I think it does seem like it is
Speaker 1: done with Russia indefinitely. I don't think we can say
Speaker 1: that for absolute certain because that is quite a big
Speaker 1: step to permanently pull out of a country. Massive. It
Speaker 1: is massive. Although to note city has itself done that,
Speaker 1: it wasn't it was in Russia. It pulled out of Russia.
Speaker 1: We went back right now that bank is assessing um
Speaker 1: whether it stays in Russia or not um. So I
Speaker 1: think it is very significant that Goldman SAX has done
Speaker 1: this because actually no European banks have exited the country.
Speaker 1: They're all assessing their exposure, but they haven't actually made
Speaker 1: that step yet. How much exposure do these guys have
Speaker 1: to Russia and like how much business do they really
Speaker 1: get in Russia? So Wall Street banks have emphasized that
Speaker 1: actually their exposure is quite small. Um. I think the
Speaker 1: Goldman Sax story said that they have about six dred
Speaker 1: and fifty million of exposure there. Um City is the
Speaker 1: largest one. It has a very substantial presence with about
Speaker 1: three thousand workers. And if you recall City which is
Speaker 1: trying to um sell its retail operations, Russia is included
Speaker 1: in some of those, so that sale has obviously been
Speaker 1: a bit stalled by by the situation in the country. Sally,
Speaker 1: we just talked a little bit about the idea that
Speaker 1: Russia could start to move in and nationalize foreign firms.
Speaker 1: And I'm wondering about this decision. If it's a decision
Speaker 1: about Okay, well, we don't want to operate a bank
Speaker 1: in a place that you know it is doing something
Speaker 1: we disagree with, like Russia's because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Speaker 1: Or is it also about business risk? And I'm not
Speaker 1: just talking customers when I'm talking like, oh wait a second,
Speaker 1: Russia could come in and actually sees this bank, right,
Speaker 1: I think that's probably a question that they are all
Speaker 1: debating right now. UM. And what is interesting that I
Speaker 1: think some of the banks are actually involved in the
Speaker 1: company who were suspending operations and putting out of the country.
Speaker 1: They're actually helping UM with that, so it is a
Speaker 1: sort of business stream for them as it is already UM.
Speaker 1: But I think that does complicate matters. I mean that
Speaker 1: they have to deal with the tremendously complicated Swift situation
Speaker 1: UM and those transactions that they might have to block,
Speaker 1: and you know, whether some of the transactions have less
Speaker 1: obvious sanctioned Russian entities involved in them, and then they
Speaker 1: have the sanctions to and then now they're going When
Speaker 1: you say Swift, you're referring to the global platform for
Speaker 1: messaging that banks used to communicate with one another that
Speaker 1: Russia was suspended from that. Jamie Diamonds did there are
Speaker 1: ways to get around, although that they aren't now that
Speaker 1: JP Morgan exactly exactly help me out here because and
Speaker 1: forgive me for being the cynic. I'm an optimist usually
Speaker 1: and I think good of people and entities. But what's
Speaker 1: interesting is it's not the first time we've seen the
Speaker 1: financial sector kind of back away from a troubled area
Speaker 1: of our world, only to get back in because there's
Speaker 1: money to be made. Is that ultimately, I mean, right now,
Speaker 1: there's sanctions right there's rules when there are sanctions implied
Speaker 1: against a certain area of the world. How do we
Speaker 1: think about that relationship right that global banks Wall Street
Speaker 1: banks specifically have with areas of the world. If there's
Speaker 1: money to be made, they will go there. I think
Speaker 1: UM City might again be correct. Yeah, I think They
Speaker 1: City is an example of that, maybe in the in
Speaker 1: the sense that it was in Russia and it came
Speaker 1: out and went back in again. UM. I suspect that
Speaker 1: memories become a little bit shorter when there is money
Speaker 1: on the table. UM. Obviously, the degree of severity of
Speaker 1: the responses from from everyone, from all corporations and from
Speaker 1: some banks that we're starting to see now UM do
Speaker 1: indicate perhaps a slight shift in philosophy about about something
Speaker 1: like this UM. But I guess time will tell as
Speaker 1: to whether it becomes a permanent UM sort of frame
Speaker 1: of mind about the Russia Ukraine situation. So, Sally, is
Speaker 1: this the first of every major bank to pull out?
Speaker 1: I think your going to look yet. This is the first,
Speaker 1: and I think it's going to look pretty strange if
Speaker 1: others don't follow from now. UM. So you know, we're
Speaker 1: chasing hard to see if we can pin down similar,
Speaker 1: similar decisions. I think every bank now has to be
Speaker 1: looking at this UM and assessing whether it's a question
Speaker 1: of winding down some of the business but keeping something there,
Speaker 1: or wholesale pulling out. I always think about you guys.
Speaker 1: I mean, you're a finance team leader. I can only
Speaker 1: imagine the discussions you guys are having around the desks
Speaker 1: or on virtual meetings as you look at this, you know,
Speaker 1: globally and certainly from the Wall Street banks. What are
Speaker 1: some of the issues you're thinking about as we continue
Speaker 1: to watch a situation that we fingers crossed had hoped
Speaker 1: would never happen, did happen, hoped it would wrap up soon,
Speaker 1: and now we're in we're entering our third week here
Speaker 1: or so. So I'm just curious, what are the discussions
Speaker 1: you guys have been having. UM. Well, A lot comes
Speaker 1: down to exposure. As I said at the beginning, a
Speaker 1: lot of the banks have said that their exposure is
Speaker 1: quite small. But as time goes on, maybe they start
Speaker 1: to realize they have more than they thought through various
Speaker 1: UM complicated financial instruments, UM and so and so we're
Speaker 1: thinking about that, UM just the very sort of physicality
Speaker 1: of what they have to do um to move people out.
Speaker 1: We had a great story today by Jenny Seraine about Visa. UM.
Speaker 1: The CEO gave this quite harrowing account of how they
Speaker 1: evacuated their staff from Ukraine, and you know they had
Speaker 1: to use mercenaries. Um. The CEO got a text while
Speaker 1: he was in church from President Zelenski asking for help,
Speaker 1: and of course Visa suspended its business there. UM. So
Speaker 1: I think it's sort of about a question of you know,
Speaker 1: exposure business direct or indirect business. How complicated it is
Speaker 1: to to wind that down um, and then the actual physics,
Speaker 1: physical presence. It is tough. Thank you so much, Sally
Speaker 1: Bell big Well. She is of course financed team leader
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol
Speaker 1: Masure and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Steinovic on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: Conversation that has been lost I think with Russia's invasion
Speaker 1: of Ukraine is what the COVID situation has been uh
Speaker 1: and we're fortunate should be joined by Rapauli LeMay, Associate
Speaker 1: scientist in the Department of International Health at Johns Hopkins
Speaker 1: Bloomberg School of Public Health, who joins us now on
Speaker 1: the phone from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Dr Limay, it's good
Speaker 1: to have you back with us. How are you? Thank
Speaker 1: you so much for having me. It's great to be back. Well,
Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about what your what your
Speaker 1: focus has been over these last couple of weeks, because
Speaker 1: we've been talking, of course, a lot about the global
Speaker 1: economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But I think
Speaker 1: partly lost in that conversation has been what it means
Speaker 1: for the spread of COVID, especially as you see more
Speaker 1: than two million refugees flee Ukraine. Um, what have you
Speaker 1: been focusing on over the last couple of weeks. Yeah, No,
Speaker 1: I think you hit it right on the head. There's
Speaker 1: two million refugees that we know of, that number is
Speaker 1: likely likely higher than that, And I think the biggest
Speaker 1: issue that we're seeing is that we do know that
Speaker 1: conflict and infectious disease go hand in hand. So the
Speaker 1: concern really here is how do we make sure that
Speaker 1: as individuals are moving to different cities, to different locations,
Speaker 1: to different countries, that we're doing all that we can
Speaker 1: to protect them from from COVID. Previous to the invasion,
Speaker 1: I think the rates for primary dose series completion in
Speaker 1: the Ukraine were not great. So we were already dealing
Speaker 1: with a large proportion of the population that had not
Speaker 1: been vaccinated, and so this has really just been exacerbated
Speaker 1: and that then you add on this issue of not
Speaker 1: being able to get help supplies in so it's just
Speaker 1: a really dire situation. Yeah, no, dire situation on so
Speaker 1: many different levels. When I you know, anything to do
Speaker 1: right now with Ukraine, we think about obviously, we talk
Speaker 1: about so many different impacts on markets of course, and
Speaker 1: what businesses are doing. But of course it's a humanitarian
Speaker 1: story that we are all following so closely. We probably
Speaker 1: I also think it's just a reminder it's hard right now.
Speaker 1: I'm going to be very honest with you to remember
Speaker 1: that I'm in a pandemic. We all are still in
Speaker 1: a pandemic because of what's going on in the world
Speaker 1: right now. But you know, I am curious to you guys,
Speaker 1: like what will ultimately determine that we are beyond the
Speaker 1: pandemic stage as as a war all and moving to
Speaker 1: the endemic stage. You know, it's a really good question.
Speaker 1: And I think in parts of the United States, I
Speaker 1: think folks are already there. Um. A lot of states
Speaker 1: are repealing their mask mandates. For example, I mean here
Speaker 1: in the United States, we still have almost of the
Speaker 1: population of the adult population that has not gotten vaccinated.
Speaker 1: So it's a little bit concerning when you're seeing states
Speaker 1: doing that when you're also seeing an increase and perhaps
Speaker 1: a new sort of sub variant that's starting to rise.
Speaker 1: Um And so I think part of it. To me,
Speaker 1: no deaths are really acceptable. I think people think about
Speaker 1: this and say, you know what, only forty four children
Speaker 1: have died from COVID. I don't I think that number
Speaker 1: should be zero. I think other individuals would say, well,
Speaker 1: it's time for us to quote unquote get back to normal. Well,
Speaker 1: we have to do that in a way that's equitable,
Speaker 1: but that also allows for protections if we need them,
Speaker 1: which you know, again, a mask is one of the
Speaker 1: easiest mitigation measures that we really have and we should employ.
Speaker 1: But many states are repealing that right now. What's a
Speaker 1: what's a realistic way for us to think about how
Speaker 1: the pandemic actually ends? And Carol asked about it becoming
Speaker 1: an endemic, but but I think how much of the
Speaker 1: way we of our sentiment has to do with expectations,
Speaker 1: so help set expectations for us. Yeah, I mean, I
Speaker 1: think the most realistic way is that if we can
Speaker 1: make sure and think about community transmission and gets under
Speaker 1: a specific level, a threshold level, we do know it's
Speaker 1: going to be with us. So it's not something that
Speaker 1: we can eliminate, it's it's here to stay. I think
Speaker 1: the key here is how do we essentially protect individuals
Speaker 1: that are immuno compromised or or are at risk for
Speaker 1: severe COVID And so part of that has to do
Speaker 1: is we really need to make sure that community transmission
Speaker 1: rates are very low. That requires a bit of a
Speaker 1: nuanced approach. And what I mean by that is if
Speaker 1: you live in a particular area and rates are starting
Speaker 1: to increase again, then we need to be able to
Speaker 1: implement mitigation strategy strategies again. So that can be essentially
Speaker 1: put bringing the mask mandates back, ensuring that there's ventilation
Speaker 1: in schools, et cetera, and so forth. I'm hopeful because
Speaker 1: we're going into the warmer months that more people tend
Speaker 1: to be outside, there tends to be better ventilation, so
Speaker 1: we hopefully will see some good downward trends. But I
Speaker 1: think the question is going to be what happens in
Speaker 1: the fall when it starts to cold again. We to
Speaker 1: see other infectious pathogens like RSV right and influenza start
Speaker 1: to circulate again, and so I think a more realistic
Speaker 1: pathway is going to be. We do know it's here
Speaker 1: to stay. It will be a bit in my opinion,
Speaker 1: of using of these measures, but we also need to
Speaker 1: be prepared that some of these measors might be implemented
Speaker 1: again depending on transmission. We're probably yes, or now we're
Speaker 1: gonna get you need to get another booster. Oh goodness,
Speaker 1: that's a hard time. We do know that immunity, Wayne,
Speaker 1: So I think part of it will depend on how
Speaker 1: much transmission is occurring and how many people actually have immunity.
Speaker 1: All right, so I think kind of not known yet. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's fair. We're Pobaby LeMay. She's Associate scientists in the
Speaker 1: Department of International Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Speaker 1: Public Health. Of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. You're listening to Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes, Tim
Speaker 1: Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. But the new issue of Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week it is out. In it a story by
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Olivia Carvil, who you might remember reported out a
Speaker 1: revealing BW cover story that was last summer about airbnb
Speaker 1: is handling of violent crimes at its listings. Well, this week,
Speaker 1: she looks at sexual abuse in the world of show
Speaker 1: jumping and the efforts to Impede's Safe Sport, which was
Speaker 1: an organization set up to help young athletes victimized by misconduct.
Speaker 1: Olivia Carville is an investigative reporter for Bloomberg new She's
Speaker 1: with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Joel Webber
Speaker 1: is editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He's also with us
Speaker 1: in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Olivia's story featured in
Speaker 1: the new issue of Business Week magazine, available on newsstands,
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Joel,
Speaker 1: this is a powerful story. It's one about an institution, uh,
Speaker 1: and one about an institution being set up to try
Speaker 1: to help that institution. There are a lot of familiar
Speaker 1: threads here. Yeah, it's um, it's a rarefied world. The
Speaker 1: sport that we're talking about here is equestrian Uh, it's
Speaker 1: an Olympic sport. Um. Uh. Olivia's uh Carverlos reporting on
Speaker 1: this has just been an amazing one. UM was was
Speaker 1: really just honored to the ship in the magazine and
Speaker 1: and also talk about it UM today because ultimately a
Speaker 1: lot of this legacy of what what she writes about
Speaker 1: in this story actually goes back to Larry Nasar and
Speaker 1: what happened in the gymnastics world UM, and there have
Speaker 1: been there There have been many things that have changed
Speaker 1: since that moment um a couple of years ago, one
Speaker 1: being this organization Safe Spoort that was founded by US
Speaker 1: Congress to basically help police sex abuse and protect young athletes. UM.
Speaker 1: But what's happened and what Olivia's reporting revealed is that
Speaker 1: there's sort of one community that has resisted any sense
Speaker 1: of discussion about this and has not liked watching its
Speaker 1: heroes fall. So Olivia bring us into the story and
Speaker 1: what happened at the stables? Yeah, sure, and thanks so
Speaker 1: much for having me on. This was a really important
Speaker 1: story from my prospective as well, just to be able
Speaker 1: to tell the young writers UM stories to hear it
Speaker 1: in their own words, what happened to them, what does
Speaker 1: grooming look like to them, and why their community was
Speaker 1: in in a sense, actually attacking them in some cases,
Speaker 1: I think with an equestrian we have seen really elite
Speaker 1: sport be torn apart by um by safe sport be
Speaker 1: torn apart by its history. And here you've actually got
Speaker 1: some you know, pretty wealthy individuals who have spent their
Speaker 1: life within the sport coming out and attacking safe sport,
Speaker 1: this watchdog agency and also questioning the antics of some
Speaker 1: of these survivors, which has been really sad to see. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm kind of stucked that this hasn't come out sooner. Again,
Speaker 1: it's like what it was once again, a situation of
Speaker 1: the institution protecting itself. Yeah, that's right. I think if
Speaker 1: you look back in Olympic sporting communities, there has been
Speaker 1: a history of prominent figures who have been accused of
Speaker 1: sexual misconduct being covered up by the national governing bodies,
Speaker 1: and we've certainly seen that within equestrian Some of the
Speaker 1: most prominent figures that we mentioned in this piece, um,
Speaker 1: you know headhead complaints about sexual misconduct raised against them,
Speaker 1: but it had never really resulted in them being banned
Speaker 1: at all. And yet with the creation of Safe Sport,
Speaker 1: we are seeing some of these individuals finally being held accountable,
Speaker 1: and the sport doesn't like that. Olivia. The pieces filled
Speaker 1: with powerful but harrowing anecdotes and stories about people who
Speaker 1: were affected, but also some really startling statistics. Through the
Speaker 1: end of seven of the one thousand two sanctions that
Speaker 1: the Center had handed down and publicized, we're talking Safe
Speaker 1: Sport here um in its discipline and database, had been
Speaker 1: against members of the US Equestrian Federation. By comparison, members
Speaker 1: of the U S t A, the U S Tennis
Speaker 1: Associations eight times it's big have only received thirty five
Speaker 1: Safe Sport sanctions. What's going on with equestrian Yeah, I
Speaker 1: think we're seeing a bigger number of equestrians sanctioned by
Speaker 1: Safe Sport than other sports, and that is causing a
Speaker 1: pushback from within the sport as well. I think that
Speaker 1: this is a sport that has historically been very insular,
Speaker 1: very exclusive. They don't like to let outsiders in. It
Speaker 1: was quite a challenging story to write because it's hard
Speaker 1: to break into this community, and so when they started
Speaker 1: to be sanctioned from historic cases going back to the
Speaker 1: seventies eighties. The sport started to fight against that. It's
Speaker 1: a sporting community that doesn't like being told what to
Speaker 1: do and is willing to push back and challenge those
Speaker 1: in power when it doesn't believe they're getting it right.
Speaker 1: So Jury's Cologne was appointed chief executive officer of Safe Sport.
Speaker 1: Had a background where she was. She previously had worked
Speaker 1: at the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children. What
Speaker 1: was her experience coming in to Safe Sport and taking
Speaker 1: over the rens of the organization. Yeah, Juris was a
Speaker 1: pretty incredible interview. Actually, she um she was shocked when
Speaker 1: she came in and started running Safe Sport. She had
Speaker 1: been working in child's safety before, but she had never
Speaker 1: experienced so much animosity, so much hostility, so much anger.
Speaker 1: Because when you're working within child's safety at the elite
Speaker 1: sporting level, these are people who want their children to win.
Speaker 1: There is a sense of desire to win, but also ambition.
Speaker 1: This is particularly equestrian. It's a community of very rich
Speaker 1: and very powerful individuals, and they did push back against
Speaker 1: Juriss And she actually mentioned to me and in her interview,
Speaker 1: how on her first week on the job, she received
Speaker 1: a call from the mother of a young writer who
Speaker 1: wanted her daughter's trainer to be reinstated. He had been
Speaker 1: removed for sexual misconduct and she wanted him back in
Speaker 1: the job because she wanted her child to win. And
Speaker 1: that's something that Dress had never really experienced before in
Speaker 1: any any of her previous roles in this area. And
Speaker 1: let's let's kind of talk about who she's had to
Speaker 1: struggle with, the critics, the people who are critical of
Speaker 1: Safe Sport. What's the rationale, what are they objecting to?
Speaker 1: And just unfortunately have about twenty seconds. Sure, the critics
Speaker 1: are saying safe Sport less transparency, it lecks to process.
Speaker 1: They believe that it is unconstitutional in the US to
Speaker 1: have an organization set up that is labeling people guilty
Speaker 1: before proven innocent. And they're coming after juriss and they're
Speaker 1: coming after Safe Sport for that reason. I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: say a most read, a Bloomberg big take, a must read,
Speaker 1: and it's in the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. Unbelievable, Olivia,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Olivia Carvil, investigative reporter, Bloomberg News
Speaker 1: and of course our thanks to do A. Weber, editor
Speaker 1: of the magazine. Yeah, how about you let me drive? No,
Speaker 1: no hone please, I want to drive. It's good question
Speaker 1: the drive to the Globe on Blueberg Radio. All Right,
Speaker 1: just about ten and a half minutes left in today's
Speaker 1: trading session, getting ready to wrap up another volatile day.
Speaker 1: We're definitely off our loads of the session, as you
Speaker 1: just heard from Charlie on those major equity averages. But
Speaker 1: tech really still having a tough time. Could be as
Speaker 1: we've seen Rasco higher here today, Tim, it certainly could be.
Speaker 1: Let's get into it with Tracy McMillian, head of Global
Speaker 1: act Allocation Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. You and
Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from Winston Salem, North Carolina. Tracy,
Speaker 1: how are you? I'm well, Thank you, Thanks for having me. Okay,
Speaker 1: So a lot of superlatives over the last few weeks here,
Speaker 1: a lot of volatility. Uh, it's difficult to kind of
Speaker 1: understand what investors are thinking. Um, what's your read on
Speaker 1: the situation? Yah? Well, we continue this favorite quality across
Speaker 1: our equity allocations in particular, and for us that means
Speaker 1: us that were international. Um, it means that within the US,
Speaker 1: we're favoring things like large caps and mid caps over
Speaker 1: small caps um and just today we downgraded emerging market
Speaker 1: to an unfavorable position, and what that means is that
Speaker 1: we're taking some money out of emerging market. We're putting
Speaker 1: it into short term and intermediate term bonds while we
Speaker 1: played out some of this disruption with a lower risk profile.
Speaker 1: Is there a point where you say, Okay, this is
Speaker 1: going to have a bigger impact on the second half
Speaker 1: The I m F already has come out. We talked
Speaker 1: about this a little bit earlier with our TV colleagues
Speaker 1: as they are putting out there um our thoughts about
Speaker 1: they say they will likely cut world GDP outlook because
Speaker 1: of the Ukraine War. We did have the g E
Speaker 1: CEO on our air with David Weston, and you know,
Speaker 1: they have put out their fiscal year outlook because they
Speaker 1: say that's based on the things that they can control
Speaker 1: hole and have a good grasp of, but again pointing
Speaker 1: out the Ukraine War and that that volatility is something
Speaker 1: that you know, is a variable that nobody can ignore.
Speaker 1: So when do you get to a point where you say, okay,
Speaker 1: this is going to be a different year and definitely
Speaker 1: a different second half. We didn't kind of re evaluate. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think we're there on the direct impacts outside of
Speaker 1: Russia are definitely falling hardists on Europe, and now we
Speaker 1: do accept a recession later this year in Europe. We
Speaker 1: don't think that the US is going to see a recession,
Speaker 1: um but we're reducing our growth and our equity forecast
Speaker 1: for the US along with our growth expectations for the
Speaker 1: rest of the world. And at the same time we're
Speaker 1: increasing our inflation expectations. Al right, so just a recession
Speaker 1: in Europe, not in the US, but you're reducing your
Speaker 1: growth estimates for the for the US this year, that's right,
Speaker 1: really reducing the growth estimates of around the world. And
Speaker 1: the reason for that, of course, you know, is that
Speaker 1: we're seeing this higher inflation, and we're seeing centual banks
Speaker 1: that are going to have to come in and they're
Speaker 1: going to have to fight these higher levels of inflation.
Speaker 1: You know, we think here in the United States, but
Speaker 1: that is going to start with a fifty I'm sorry
Speaker 1: this point increase next week. And then the impacts of
Speaker 1: the Russian invasion are reinforcing our belief that they're going
Speaker 1: to have to keep raising rates multiple times. And we
Speaker 1: started the year thinking they were going to raise rights
Speaker 1: four times. We've just increased that just six times because
Speaker 1: of these lingering, persistent inflationary pressures. So stagsflation, So not
Speaker 1: necessarily stagsflation. I guess that depends on how you define it.
Speaker 1: So we define that as a persistent level of very
Speaker 1: low growth with high inflation. And yes, we're seeing the
Speaker 1: high inflation part, and we do you think that all
Speaker 1: thramps to lower inflation has gotten longer because of the
Speaker 1: const lift, But we don't necessarily think that growth here
Speaker 1: in the Young State is going to fall to a
Speaker 1: level that would be considered slow growth. We're still seeing
Speaker 1: about three and a half percent growth here in the
Speaker 1: nth States, and that's above trends. Okay, so three growth
Speaker 1: here in the United States. Of four rate increases, what
Speaker 1: you were thinking at the beginning of the year, Now
Speaker 1: you're up to six times this year, So one point
Speaker 1: five percent interest rates a d fifty basis points at
Speaker 1: the end of the year. Is that what you're thinking
Speaker 1: or could there be a fifty basis point raising there?
Speaker 1: And if there could be, but we're saying anywhere from
Speaker 1: one point five to one point seven five. Okay, um,
Speaker 1: hey Tracy, what would change your view on a recession
Speaker 1: in the US? If if oil keeps spiking, for example,
Speaker 1: and at leadst to demand destruction, could we see a
Speaker 1: recession in the US. It's it's very I shouldn't say very,
Speaker 1: it is palps hole. So within the realm of the
Speaker 1: scenarios that you know, we would be considering, but it's
Speaker 1: certainly not our base case. Um. If we were to
Speaker 1: see oil slides to say one fifty of arrel, then
Speaker 1: that would definitely lead to some demand instruction, um, and
Speaker 1: we would we'd also, you know, uh, factor into that
Speaker 1: view that other commodities prices are also rising. So not
Speaker 1: only our consumers being faced with higher oil prices, they're
Speaker 1: also facing higher food prices. And while you can moderate
Speaker 1: your your driving or vacations, you can't necessarily stop eating.
Speaker 1: So as that is going to continue to weil on consumers,
Speaker 1: and should those prices continue to rise much more than
Speaker 1: you know, we might have to reevaluate our Ryan Vastelica
Speaker 1: has a story in the Bloom Bargains is tech valuations
Speaker 1: back and focus on the anniversary of the dot com peak.
Speaker 1: So the sell off a major US tech and internet
Speaker 1: stocks coming at an in a space just time as
Speaker 1: March tesch parks the anniversary of the peak of the
Speaker 1: dot com era, after which some of the markets and
Speaker 1: then biggest names began a collapse that would take years
Speaker 1: to recover from. We are seeing a lot of pressure
Speaker 1: on tech. We're rethinking maybe some of what is the
Speaker 1: outlook for some of those fang names. UM, how do
Speaker 1: you see it? You see the opportunities in some of
Speaker 1: big tech? Correct? We do? We continue to life to
Speaker 1: information technology. There are just a few sectors that we
Speaker 1: like right now, information technologies, one of them, communication services
Speaker 1: and financials round delta top three for US. UM. We
Speaker 1: do think that technologies earnings and revenue are going to
Speaker 1: continue to be attractive to investors. And our planning frame
Speaker 1: here is sixty eighteen months, so over that time frame,
Speaker 1: we we think revenues, earnings are are are going to
Speaker 1: continue to come in pretty strong. We also think that
Speaker 1: those earnings are high quality earnings and the leverage of
Speaker 1: those companies generally speaking, is pretty low. Is there just
Speaker 1: really quickly fifteen that cons This is a particular area
Speaker 1: within tech because when we say tech, it covers a
Speaker 1: lot of ground. It does cover a lot of ground,
Speaker 1: and we are more broadly speaking about technology here and
Speaker 1: not not necessarily a particular area, but we'd be diversified.
Speaker 1: All Right, We're gonna run. Hey, Thank you so much,
Speaker 1: Tracy McMillian ahead of Global Asset Allocation Strategy. It was
Speaker 1: Fargo Investment Institute. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.
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