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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're running again, so smooth, so sweet. Trend

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Speaker 1: sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent efforts four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shut with that shot with mine, buddy, And that's.

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Speaker 3: Why you see your beautiful tis.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements, the most dangerous a mount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody kicks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up again? The whole they left to up the

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Speaker 1: wide eyed drillibus, How old Earth big?

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Speaker 3: That happens?

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Speaker 2: Yoga Benito's ladies and gentlemen, and welcome back to Wondergol,

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Speaker 2: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 5: I'm your host, Michael.

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Speaker 2: And joining me today as always are my colleagues and

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Speaker 2: friends Anthony Dubundo and BJ Cunningham. Together the three of

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Speaker 2: us will handicap all sixteen Champions League matches coming your

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Speaker 2: way this week, and we will start with the headliner,

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Speaker 2: a showdown at Stamford Bridge between Chelsea they're minus one

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Speaker 2: fifty favorites taking on Juventus who are plus four to

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Speaker 2: twenty five. The draw is plus three hundred. This is

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Speaker 2: a three pm kickoff on Tuesday, We'll look at Group

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Speaker 2: bates real quick. Juventus is at the top with twelve points,

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Speaker 2: Chelsea at nine, Zenit and Malmo zen It's at three,

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Speaker 2: Malmos at zero, so they're not going to really factor

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Speaker 2: into who's getting advance out of this group. But this

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Speaker 2: match obviously is huge for both teams. Juventus gets a point,

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Speaker 2: they basically will be the first place team and that

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Speaker 2: is a big big deal because then they avoid a

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Speaker 2: lot of the other giants out there. So there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of game theory. Obviously, these are two very good teams. Anthony,

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Speaker 2: Where are you kind of just going with the narrative

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Speaker 2: street of Chelsea gonna come out and try to played

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Speaker 2: you Ventus off the pitch to win and nip this

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Speaker 2: group at the at the last match week in a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks. Or do you think there's maybe some

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Speaker 2: value going the other way because a lot of people

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Speaker 2: will play into that narrative.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm actually gonna follow the narrative here. I'm not

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Speaker 4: quite buying into what Juve has been selling us lately.

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Speaker 4: In terms of their performances. They did have a solid

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Speaker 4: tune to no win against Lazio at the weekend, but

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Speaker 4: there was two penalties. There wasn't a ton from open play.

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Speaker 4: They generated nine shots. They had a late winner against

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Speaker 4: ten man Fiorentina. The week before they lost to Cisuolo

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Speaker 4: and Verona, and the matches before that. Their EXG difference

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Speaker 4: in Italy is plus point three and that's pretty bad.

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Speaker 4: They lost Christiano Ronado from last year and their shot

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Speaker 4: numbers are considerably down, their attack numbers are solidly down,

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Speaker 4: and the defense is pretty similar. It's one of the

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Speaker 4: best in Italy generally, but not you know, any elite

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Speaker 4: by any elite standard, and.

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Speaker 6: So max aagree hasn't really made them better.

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Speaker 4: And when you look at Chelsea, we've been trying to

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Speaker 4: get at fades on Chelsea for a while.

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Speaker 6: I think we keep losing.

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Speaker 4: They've dominated in the Champions League defensively, two point one

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Speaker 4: expected goals allowed in four matches. The only time they

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Speaker 4: conceded was the match against Juventus, which was right out

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Speaker 4: of halftime on a counter attack. They conceded one expected

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Speaker 4: goal in that match.

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Speaker 6: There was very little in it.

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Speaker 4: It was a very even game based on shots, possession

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Speaker 4: and expected goals. Chelsea here, it's a little juicy for

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Speaker 4: me to play the money line, so I'm gonna.

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Speaker 6: Look to get at an alt price here.

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Speaker 4: The minus one and a half is two is two

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Speaker 4: to one, and I know it falls into narrative street,

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Speaker 4: but they do need to win by two goals to

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Speaker 4: win this group. If they win by one, Juventus will

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Speaker 4: have they'll be tied in terms of goal difference head

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Speaker 4: to head, which will then go to goal difference for

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Speaker 4: the group, which Juventus will almost certainly have. So Chelsea

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Speaker 4: will know they have to win by two here. And

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Speaker 4: that's why Chelsea goes up a goal. You know, sometimes

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Speaker 4: you'll see a team protect the lead. Thomas Touka will

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Speaker 4: not be doing that, and I you know that's not

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Speaker 4: properly priced into the market here because of you know,

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Speaker 4: it's just the same number, you know, as any other

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Speaker 4: game would be. And so I think if you've has

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Speaker 4: to come out here, Chelsea is a very capable counterattacking

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Speaker 4: team and they'll be able to get margin here. I

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Speaker 4: just think the way they're playing is a significant level

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Speaker 4: above Juventus and they're going to be able to control

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Speaker 4: this game and get the result they need. So at

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Speaker 4: two to one plus two hundred, I like throwing some

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Speaker 4: money down on the minus one and a half goals

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Speaker 4: as opposed to laying the juice on the money line,

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Speaker 4: even though I do think they will win the match

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Speaker 4: to and show value on that in my projections, which

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Speaker 4: I have them up around one seventy fives. So I'm

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Speaker 4: also high on Chelsea, but I think it's better or

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Speaker 4: maybe more often will to go after the price.

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Speaker 5: Since their loss of the event is on September twenty ninth.

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Speaker 2: Chelsea has seven wins and a draw with just two

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Speaker 2: goals against the sixteen point six expected goals for five

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Speaker 2: point one expected goals against EI. There's some you could

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Speaker 2: definitely poke some holes in the schedule, very soft competition

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Speaker 2: aside from their wint Less which was really really good.

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Speaker 2: And uvent is also in pretty good form just in

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Speaker 2: terms of results nine wins, two losses and a draw

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Speaker 2: since September nineteenth, So I think actually the price is

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Speaker 2: maybe a little too high for Juventus and I could

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Speaker 2: could even go higher. I know Chelsea is is a bear.

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Speaker 5: They're very good.

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Speaker 2: Team, one of the best teams in the world, but

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Speaker 2: you are looking at very talented event. This team a

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Speaker 2: team that has has the pieces to nick a win,

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Speaker 2: a late winner if they need to, and especially if

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Speaker 2: Chelsea does start flinging players forward to try to get

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Speaker 2: the three points towards the.

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Speaker 5: End of the game.

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Speaker 2: So I'm probably gonna be on the Uventus money line.

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Speaker 2: It might be a live play as that game wears on.

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Speaker 2: BJ Do you see some value on the Old Lady

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Speaker 2: or Chelsea here?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I agree with Anthony. I like Chelsea everything. I pretty

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Speaker 3: much agree with everything Anthony said. You know, if we look,

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Speaker 3: you know, from a projection standpoint, looking at those expected

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Speaker 3: goal differentials, you know, events is obviously way down there

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Speaker 3: with Anthony mentioned, you know, Chelsea's at plus to twelve

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Speaker 3: point nine nine four through twelve matches, so you know,

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Speaker 3: Chelsea's not thirty goals for four goals against type style

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Speaker 3: of team. But they're still a very very good squad

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Speaker 3: and they showed that against Lester this weekend. And then

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Speaker 3: if we look at UEFA coefficients, England is about twenty

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Speaker 3: five ranking points higher than Italy. So it's a pretty

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Speaker 3: significant advantage for Chelsea here at home in that one

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Speaker 3: nil defeats and Italy. You know, Chelsea did hold seventy

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Speaker 3: two percent possession. They completed seven hundred and twenty three

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Speaker 3: passes compared only two hundred thirty six for Juventus. Seventeen

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Speaker 3: box enturies compared only five for Juventus, and this was

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Speaker 3: the biggest one. It was four hundred and twenty two

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Speaker 3: touches in the final third compared to just seventy seven

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Speaker 3: for Juventus, so it was very dominating Tutel type performance.

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Speaker 3: Chelsea just couldn't do anything in the final third, so

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Speaker 3: I think this is going to be another dominant Chelsea performance.

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Speaker 3: I have Chelsea projected at minus two fifteen, so I

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Speaker 3: agree with Anthony at the minus one and a half

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Speaker 3: is probably a good place that they need since they

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Speaker 3: need to win by two. But I'll take Chelsea minus

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Speaker 3: one fifty to one.

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Speaker 5: The other group EH match is Malmo at home.

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Speaker 2: They're plus two seventy taking on Zenit, who are even

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Speaker 2: money favorite.

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Speaker 5: The draws plus two sixty five, making.

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Speaker 2: The Europa League probably a big deal for both these

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Speaker 2: teams and the winner. Zen It is obviously in the

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Speaker 2: driver's seat, but the winner could have a chance in

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Speaker 2: doing that.

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Speaker 5: Zen It basically just needs a point. I don't really

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Speaker 5: see much here.

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Speaker 2: I think it's Zenit or nothing for me, Anthony, Do

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Speaker 2: you have anything on this one?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: You know. The Malmo attempts to try to get on

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Speaker 4: that team. In the past they got thrashed by uvent As.

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Speaker 4: They got thrashed twice by Chelsea, only losing by one

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Speaker 4: in the one game. But really we're never in it.

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Speaker 6: There.

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Speaker 4: I think they're the worst team in the pool of

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Speaker 4: the thirty two and every year there's just teams. And

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Speaker 4: I've said this on previous episodes. They're not able to

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Speaker 4: play without the ball because they're so used to bossing.

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Speaker 4: They're pretty bad domestic leagues, and Malmo is that team.

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Speaker 4: They look so disorganized out of possession, giving up a

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Speaker 4: ton of clear, high quality chances, also making just basic

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Speaker 4: defensive mistakes when put on pressure. Zen doesn't really have

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Speaker 4: a path to get out of this group here. I

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Speaker 4: don't really trust them to win this because a draw

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Speaker 4: is a perfectly good result present it. So I'm just

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Speaker 4: going to pass and not watch this game whatsoever.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, one thing, the Swedish First Divisions coming down to

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Speaker 3: the end here because they don't play during the winter

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Speaker 3: and Molm only has a two point lead over second

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Speaker 3: place with two matches left go, so their minds might

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Speaker 3: be focused on actually winning their domestic competition rather than

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Speaker 3: the Champions League, which they're definitely not going to get

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Speaker 3: out of even to the Europa League. Yep.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think it's zended or nothing here for

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Speaker 2: me and yeah, I mean when we get to the

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Speaker 2: stage of the competition, there's just so many weird things

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Speaker 2: that you got to kind of factor in and bake

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Speaker 2: into your handicap where you don't need to do that

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Speaker 2: as Group f where anything can happen.

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Speaker 5: Everyone's playing for everything. Basically.

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Speaker 2: At this point, man United is at the top with

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Speaker 2: seven points via Reality seven points at a lot to

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Speaker 2: five young boys at three. They can still obviously get

192
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Speaker 2: out of the Group two. They need to run the table. However,

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Speaker 2: Algunners got so this is going to be an interesting

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Speaker 2: one with via Real hosting Manchester United Viareal plus one

195
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Speaker 2: eighty five home underdogs man United plus one fifty the

196
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Speaker 2: Druss plus two forty five. This is a twelve forty

197
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Speaker 2: five pm kickoff on Tuesday. Everybody's going to be tuned

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Speaker 2: into this one because Michael Carrick's obviously taking over for Soulshar.

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Speaker 2: I think everybody's expecting a really big response from this

200
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Speaker 2: team after losing to Watford at five to one or higher,

201
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Speaker 2: which we all love that on the Premier League episode

202
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Speaker 2: last week. I don't think I can go back to

203
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Speaker 2: Manchester United again. Like I know, I think a lot

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Speaker 2: of people are too, so I think this number on

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Speaker 2: Vioreal might even get better. The Yellow Submarine could tick

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Speaker 2: above two to one. As people say, you know, Sol

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Speaker 2: shars out, new manager bounced. This team is going to

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Speaker 2: be galvanized with Michael Carrick in.

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Speaker 5: Charge, and they're going to want to prove their data

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Speaker 5: is wrong. Also, it's very important, but.

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Speaker 2: That doesn't take into into account that there's another team here,

212
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Speaker 2: a team that sets up very well in tournaments, the

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Speaker 2: Yellow Submarine. Uniamory should have this team well prepared to

214
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Speaker 2: sit back and give man United problems on the counter.

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Speaker 5: I like via reality here.

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Speaker 2: I don't think there's any way you can get me

217
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Speaker 2: to bet on Manchester United at the current moment, even

218
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Speaker 2: if Michael Carrott is in charge and soul shows out.

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Speaker 5: Bjay, what about you?

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Speaker 3: This is a pass for me. I need to see

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Speaker 3: what United actually looks like with schol Shard not in charge,

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Speaker 3: because they boy, they looked horrible against Watford probably the

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Speaker 3: honestly it might be the worst they looked all season,

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Speaker 3: which is really saying something because they've had some really

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Speaker 3: bad performances. I'll be honest, I have some projected value

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Speaker 3: on Manchester United here, but I just really don't know

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Speaker 3: what to make of them right now, and I really

228
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Speaker 3: don't have a good feel on how they're actually gonna perform,

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Speaker 3: especially on the road here against Berrel, who you know

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Speaker 3: is on the bottom half of La Liga. But they

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Speaker 3: have flare around a plus five non penalty expected goldffrontial

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Speaker 3: so they've been a little bit unlucky so far. But

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Speaker 3: this is a sit back and wait and see how

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Speaker 3: United response to soul Shar getting fired.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it keeps.

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Speaker 2: I think it was out to trust right like, I

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Speaker 2: just can't trust Manchester United as a road favorite going

238
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Speaker 2: against a team that is really good at tournaments right now.

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Speaker 2: And I know it's when you think it road favorite,

240
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Speaker 2: they should be odds on or something, but no plus

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Speaker 2: one fifty they are still the favorite at that number.

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Speaker 5: I think you're getting a good number of vireal.

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Speaker 2: It might not win, but I really like the price

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Speaker 2: here on a like I said, a very good tournament team,

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Speaker 2: a really tough team to break down, and going against

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Speaker 2: a defense that has not been hard to break down

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Speaker 2: Watford just scored put up a crooked number against them,

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Speaker 2: So I just I don't think I can look away

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Speaker 2: right now. And whatever it might bite me in the butt,

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Speaker 2: it will eventually as I keep going against them.

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Speaker 5: But I'm going to Anthony Man United viareal the draw.

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Speaker 5: Elsewhere where are you taking us?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll actually have the right up for this one

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Speaker 4: on the Action Network. You can read the full right

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Speaker 4: up on Monday ahead of the Tuesday game. It's trying

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Speaker 4: to look over here and I know it's kind of

257
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Speaker 4: square at this point because they've been leaguing goals for weeks,

258
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Speaker 4: but I'm not expecting a defensive improvement under the caretaker

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Speaker 4: manager who happened to be Ola second in charge basically,

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Speaker 4: And so I think, you know, we'll see who United hires,

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Speaker 4: and I'm gonna be fascinated to kind of dig into

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Speaker 4: who it ends up being. And you know what I

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Speaker 4: expect tactically, and you know, is it gonna be zadn

264
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Speaker 4: or is it gonna be ten hogs? You know, could

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Speaker 4: there's so many options. We'll get into that later. But

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Speaker 4: what this means on Tuesday, Billy All needs to win

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Speaker 4: this game. The draw isn't not enough because they have

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Speaker 4: to go to Atlanta. On the final match, they have

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Speaker 4: to go to Bergamo. They're gonna probably need to result

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Speaker 4: there too, so if they only draw here, they're in

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Speaker 4: pretty serious danger of going out.

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Speaker 6: So they have to play more aggressive, more assertive.

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Speaker 4: Villar y Al's defense has been very met in Spain

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Speaker 4: and in the Champions League overall. They conceded more than

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Speaker 4: one expected goal to both at Atlanta and to United.

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Speaker 4: They got lucky in the first match against young Boys

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Speaker 4: to not concede more than they did. There was a

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Speaker 4: bunch of big time misses in a pretty wide open game.

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Speaker 4: And the thing is Bill Rial can create a lot

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Speaker 4: of the same problems that Watford did, and they're just better.

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Speaker 4: United had sixty percent of the ball, was out shot

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Speaker 4: eleven to two in the first half against Watford. Is

283
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Speaker 4: if you think about it and remember back to the

284
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Speaker 4: first time these two teams played, that's exactly what happened.

285
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Speaker 6: United had the ball, they.

286
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Speaker 4: Passed it around, passed it around, passed around anytime they

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Speaker 4: try to do anything. Villarriale took the ball, rained down

288
00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:22,560
Speaker 4: the field and almost scored. Dehea has had some regression,

289
00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:26,480
Speaker 4: except on penalties, apparently, where he's good again at saving them.

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Speaker 4: They've conceded fifteen goals in the last five games. McGuire's

291
00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,440
Speaker 4: in bad form, Veran is still out. We're not really

292
00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:35,800
Speaker 4: sure Lindeloff's status, and so you have a lot of

293
00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,640
Speaker 4: question marks about this defense. And the one thing I

294
00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:42,040
Speaker 4: think we might see here, Jayden Sancho might play more.

295
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,640
Speaker 4: Donny van Derbeek might play more. I think that's both

296
00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:46,880
Speaker 4: good for the over here. Van de Baek is an

297
00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:49,480
Speaker 4: elite player when it comes to getting into the box,

298
00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:53,679
Speaker 4: getting shots, adding production from the midfield. We saw when

299
00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,120
Speaker 4: he scored the final goal of the ola Era, which

300
00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,800
Speaker 4: is pretty poetic. And Sancho is an elite ball progression

301
00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:01,880
Speaker 4: up Paul progressor up the right wing, but he doesn't

302
00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:05,760
Speaker 4: really defend or trackback, so there's gonna be vulnerabilities there.

303
00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:07,000
Speaker 6: I think all of this points too.

304
00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:10,600
Speaker 4: United tries to go outscore villary all in this game,

305
00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:12,840
Speaker 4: get all three points, and that's why I'm going over

306
00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:14,720
Speaker 4: to at one minus one.

307
00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:16,280
Speaker 6: Twenty is out there.

308
00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,080
Speaker 4: Uh So my projection is two point sixty four, so

309
00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:21,440
Speaker 4: not a ton of value on the over but I

310
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,880
Speaker 4: think this is a really good look for a game

311
00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:25,240
Speaker 4: that I think is going to feature a lot of

312
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,360
Speaker 4: goals yet again up front, and it's.

313
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Speaker 2: Going to be a fascinating one to watch the market

314
00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,120
Speaker 2: four because it's like I said, twelve forty five pm kickoff.

315
00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 2: It's going to have a lot of eyeballs on it

316
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:38,200
Speaker 2: for a host of reasons. And so this this numbers,

317
00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,680
Speaker 2: these numbers could bounce all over the place and definitely

318
00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,560
Speaker 2: if you're betting to eard and you're into watching the market,

319
00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,520
Speaker 2: definitely probably the game of the weekend in.

320
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Speaker 5: That regard for the game of the week.

321
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Speaker 2: The other match Group F is Young Boys there plus

322
00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:56,440
Speaker 2: two seventy five at home and Burn Switzerland against Adelanta

323
00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:58,000
Speaker 2: minus one oh five on the road.

324
00:14:58,280 --> 00:14:59,200
Speaker 5: The draws plus two.

325
00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:02,960
Speaker 2: Ninety the three pm kickoff, So it'll be a kind

326
00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:07,560
Speaker 2: of a funny situation where Adelanta will and Young Boys

327
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,880
Speaker 2: will know the result of via Reale and Manchester United

328
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:11,840
Speaker 2: before the game, which.

329
00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:12,800
Speaker 5: Could play into things.

330
00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 2: Obviously, Adelanta is two points behind the two teams at

331
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 2: the top.

332
00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:18,240
Speaker 5: They'll be gunning for it.

333
00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:19,760
Speaker 2: And this is a team that you know what, that's

334
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,600
Speaker 2: what they do anyway, so it's their natural game state,

335
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:23,160
Speaker 2: you could.

336
00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:25,880
Speaker 5: Say, But I think Young Boys are.

337
00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,680
Speaker 2: Not without a you know, hint of interest for me here,

338
00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:31,680
Speaker 2: like this is a team that beat Man United in

339
00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 2: the opening week of Champions League. It seems like three

340
00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:39,400
Speaker 2: years ago right now, but at home could be you know,

341
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,360
Speaker 2: Adelanta does give up chances going the other way. They've

342
00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,040
Speaker 2: been in decent form La Dia though, four h and

343
00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,880
Speaker 2: two in their last six in Italy, with two expectacles

344
00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,040
Speaker 2: created in three of those of their last four matches,

345
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,680
Speaker 2: so their offense seems to be firing. But I think

346
00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:54,320
Speaker 2: this is going to be a back and forth match

347
00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:56,480
Speaker 2: because the Young Boys obviously needs to win, so it

348
00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:58,280
Speaker 2: could be a fun you know, it would be a

349
00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,520
Speaker 2: square over, could be a fun one though to go

350
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,360
Speaker 2: that way, BJA, how are you playing this one?

351
00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,360
Speaker 3: I actually kind of agree, and I think that Young

352
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,880
Speaker 3: Boys has a shot here to at least get a draw.

353
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 3: You know, yes, they got completely dominated by Adelanta and

354
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,840
Speaker 3: that one zero win Atlanta one unexpected goals like two

355
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,520
Speaker 3: point eight to zero point one. Young Boys did nothing

356
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 3: going forward. But as we've talked about this outlet, want

357
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,680
Speaker 3: of defense is not where it's been in years past.

358
00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 3: You know, one point two two expected goals allowed per

359
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,720
Speaker 3: match this year, that's regressed way up from about one

360
00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:29,720
Speaker 3: the past two seasons. They're also thirteenth in Syria and

361
00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,680
Speaker 3: big scoring chances allowed. So I think we'll see, you know,

362
00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:35,400
Speaker 3: maybe a potential for young boys to actually get forward

363
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,200
Speaker 3: and see some of those chances they created, you know,

364
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:39,280
Speaker 3: gets Spira real. And they've just been much better at

365
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,400
Speaker 3: home than they have on the road. They created two

366
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,320
Speaker 3: point seven to four expected goals against Berree Isle and

367
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:47,680
Speaker 3: one point four to three against Manchester United, and on

368
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,760
Speaker 3: the road they haven't really done anything. So I do

369
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 3: think that it's going to be a much better offensive

370
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,320
Speaker 3: performance because they have to go forward too. There is

371
00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:58,840
Speaker 3: no hanging back, you know, trying to play for a

372
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 3: draw and then go nope. They have to absolutely go

373
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:04,480
Speaker 3: for it one hundred percent. So I have Atlanta projected

374
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 3: at plus one twenty nine. So I do think they're

375
00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:09,400
Speaker 3: a tad over valued at minus one ten. So I'll

376
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,120
Speaker 3: take Young Boys plus half a goal at minus one five.

377
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,000
Speaker 2: Anthony, last weekend you played in Adelanta under it's a

378
00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:19,160
Speaker 2: pretty scary bet, ye are you going back? Well here?

379
00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:20,880
Speaker 4: You want to tell him the final score of that game,

380
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:22,679
Speaker 4: in case you missed it.

381
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 5: It was a basketball scorer.

382
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,639
Speaker 6: It was five to two not for one. It was

383
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,600
Speaker 6: five to two. That was an all timer.

384
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:30,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, there was like a goal in the eighth minute

385
00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:33,480
Speaker 4: and then like it was a deflected off the post.

386
00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:35,480
Speaker 4: And I said on the pod, like if especially scores

387
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,679
Speaker 4: early were cooked, and they did and we were cooked.

388
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,280
Speaker 4: It was a penalty and then it was a retake.

389
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,359
Speaker 4: It was absurd, way awful call. Wor's called the weekend.

390
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:48,400
Speaker 4: I lean the under here. I understand that Atlanta created

391
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,920
Speaker 4: two point one expected goals in the first leg between

392
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,320
Speaker 4: these two teams back in Bergamo, but a lot of

393
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:57,440
Speaker 4: that came very, very late in the game. Atlanta struggled.

394
00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,560
Speaker 4: They only had four shots in the opening forty minutes.

395
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 4: They had one big chance off a set piece early

396
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 4: in the second half, they scored their goal from it,

397
00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,640
Speaker 4: and then they dominated the last ten to fifteen minutes.

398
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,080
Speaker 4: Brought on some more attackers, try to get more goals,

399
00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 4: as they always do. If you want to look here,

400
00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 4: I think it's towards young boys or the under I

401
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 4: show a tiny bit of value on young boys, almost

402
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,640
Speaker 4: nothing though, But I'm leaning towards the under here because

403
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,399
Speaker 4: I don't trust, I still do not trust Atalanta away

404
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,840
Speaker 4: from home here to create a bunch of chances to

405
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,840
Speaker 4: go win this game and to go, you know, for

406
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 4: this game to go over good, to wait to see

407
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 4: what the lineups look like and kind of see what

408
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,480
Speaker 4: the market does here. If we see it three in

409
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 4: a quarter, I'm definitely on the under. But right now

410
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 4: I'm passing with some potential leans.

411
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 5: Don't look now.

412
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 2: Barcelona has won one game in a row and they

413
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,919
Speaker 2: are minus won sixty five favorites against Benfica, who were

414
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:53,679
Speaker 2: plus four to twenty five on the road. The DRW

415
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 2: us plus three thirty. This is a three pm kickoff

416
00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 2: on Tuesday. Groupie Byron.

417
00:18:58,080 --> 00:18:58,880
Speaker 5: They're in there.

418
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,280
Speaker 2: They've punched their ticket as top seed at twelve points,

419
00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 2: Barcelona at six, Benfica at four, Dinomo at one. So

420
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 2: this game at Camp New is do or die. Whoever

421
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:13,960
Speaker 2: wins is going to move on. Obviously Barcelona. A draw

422
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 2: kind of throws out a fleux. But I'm not gonna

423
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 2: lay minus one.

424
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 5: Sixty five with this team. I don't trust them yet.

425
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 5: I just don't trust him yet.

426
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,120
Speaker 2: It was obviously they moved on for Ronald Koman Javis

427
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 2: in Town. He wins his debut at a one nil

428
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 2: nail butter over Espanol. Their offense is starting to cook

429
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 2: one point six to one expected goals on average over

430
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,840
Speaker 2: the last eight matches, but they're running into a team

431
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,919
Speaker 2: that is a decent defensive side. The one thing I

432
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,479
Speaker 2: will say, I don't think I'm gonna end up having

433
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 2: a play on this match.

434
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 5: But Barcelona's fifty to one to win the Champions League.

435
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,439
Speaker 5: They're not good enough to do it. But it's just

436
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 5: such a it's so hard to look at that number.

437
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 2: See Barcelona next to plus five thousand in this Champions League.

438
00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 2: I don't It takes a lot of self control not

439
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 2: to do it.

440
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 5: I'm not going to do it.

441
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 2: But if they do win this match, tet number is

442
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 2: going to go down. So if you are a Barcia believer,

443
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 2: that is something to maybe keep in mind.

444
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:13,479
Speaker 5: Bju, what are you seeing from this game? How are

445
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 5: you playing it? Are you buying Javi in his first

446
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 5: Champions League match behind the bench for Barcelona?

447
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 3: No, not necessarily. I'm going to go under three goals

448
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 3: at minus one twenty. You know, they got the one

449
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 3: zero win in a derby over Espanol, but you know,

450
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 3: outside of the penalty that you know Depai could they

451
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 3: didn't really do much point nine to six expected goals

452
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 3: on thirteen shots. It's not very good against the bottom

453
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 3: half of the table. Side even if we go back

454
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,400
Speaker 3: to the first two times. You know, the first time

455
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 3: Barcelona played against Benefica, they only created one point three

456
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,119
Speaker 3: four expected goals in the match and lost three nothing.

457
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 3: But they have been improving defense, improving defensively in La Liga.

458
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 3: You know, they're one of the best teams by expected goals.

459
00:20:57,680 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 3: But the big thing for them in this match is

460
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:01,919
Speaker 3: that a lot of some of their best players are

461
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 3: going to be out. You know, Petrie's been out for

462
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 3: a while, Desk is going to be out, as Fati

463
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,199
Speaker 3: is out. Sergio Aguero unfortunately is going to have to

464
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 3: retire from soccer after the standing a heart problem. But

465
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 3: so I just outside of the PAI, I don't really

466
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 3: know what Barcelona is going to do going forward. And

467
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 3: this is a really good defensive team from Benefica. If

468
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 3: you take away the two matches against Byron Munich, because

469
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 3: obviously Byron just inflated all of their numbers because they

470
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 3: thrashed them both times, only point six to four expectable

471
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 3: is allowed per match. If you combine their domestic campaign

472
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 3: and their first two Champions League matches, so this is

473
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 3: a really good defense. I think Shavi is going to

474
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 3: play a little more defensive than you know past managers

475
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,679
Speaker 3: have for Barcelona. So I do think that this is

476
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 3: going to be a low scoring affair. I only have

477
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 3: two point four to five goals projected for this one,

478
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 3: so I like under three goals at minus one twenty.

479
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 2: It's going to take some time, obviously for Javi to

480
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 2: figure this team out, and like you said, there are

481
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 2: lineup concerns. To Anthony, what do you think the new

482
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 2: manager is going to kind of instill in this team,

483
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 2: Like it's it's kind of hard to draw from either

484
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 2: the UAE Premier League whatever Middle Eastern League. He was

485
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: just running rough shot through with his team over there.

486
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 2: But do we have any inkling on how this team

487
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,640
Speaker 2: will set up and how betters can maybe use that

488
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 2: to their advantage.

489
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 4: You know, we talk about new manager bounces, and I

490
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 4: feel like we've had so many new managerial changes through

491
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 4: the last two weeks because of the international break. But

492
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 4: the reality is that a lot of times managers get

493
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 4: fired or sacked because you know, their team underperforms their

494
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 4: actual numbers. And we saw with Barcelona is that their

495
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 4: attack was creating a lot of chances and not quite

496
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 4: finishing them. So you're probably going to see positive aggression

497
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 4: even if Jabi does absolutely nothing and just stands there

498
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: and collapse. Now, his Alsade teams were not great defensively.

499
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 4: They scored a lot of goals, they played pretty open,

500
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 4: So I'm not sure what exactly we're.

501
00:22:59,119 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 6: Going to expect.

502
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 4: It's going to take some time. I think personnel wise,

503
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 4: he doesn't have the personnel it'll be a good defensive team.

504
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 4: I'm passing on this match. Specifically, I'm holding a bars

505
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 4: ticket on to advance, so I'm passing. But I think

506
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,439
Speaker 4: there's gonna be some goal scoring regression positively going forward.

507
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 4: They have too much talent, They have created too many chances.

508
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 4: The goals are coming, and they're going to start coming

509
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 4: in bunches, I think, and we saw that against the

510
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 4: Celta Vigo. But we also saw a few weeks ago

511
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 4: is that they still have serious defensive personnel issues that

512
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 4: aren't going to be solved this year or maybe not

513
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,160
Speaker 4: even next year. And when they don't have the ball,

514
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 4: they're really bad. So it's difficult to get a good

515
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 4: read on them. But I think one thing you can

516
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 4: almost certainly bet on not knowing anything about job is

517
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 4: that their offense is going to get better, it's going

518
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 4: to regress positively, and it's coming The other match.

519
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,199
Speaker 5: In Group EF A barn Burner Byern.

520
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 2: Like I said, top of the table at twelve points,

521
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 2: eleven points behind them is Dinomo, I really have no

522
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: chance of making anything out of this Champions League season.

523
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: They're eleven to one at home Byron Munich, who are

524
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 2: minus four twenty five. That draws six to one. This

525
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 2: is a twelve forty five kickoff on Tuesday. This is

526
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 2: basically a meaningless game for everybody involved. Byron is coming

527
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 2: off the loss to US to Augsburg on Friday in

528
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 2: a game that was first time BJA has ever bet

529
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 2: on them, So we should have known to go for

530
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 2: the big money line there at Augsburg, were they twelve

531
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 2: to one or so Byron had you know, obviously a

532
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,160
Speaker 2: lot of people out on international break, then they played

533
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 2: the first match back, so there were some some things

534
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,639
Speaker 2: maybe that we we should have taken in Obviously, who

535
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 2: in their right mind still would have bet against them

536
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 2: on the money line of that game. But they have

537
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 2: lost some matches now to inferior opposition. Like I said,

538
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 2: this match doesn't lean anything. You're gonna see some squad

539
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 2: rotation from Byron Munich. So it's it's Dinamo or nothing

540
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 2: to me. I don't think I'm gonna do it eleven

541
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 2: to one, BJ. Are you going back to the well

542
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 2: with Byron your new favorite team?

543
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 3: Who cares?

544
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 5: Let's move on, all right, they technically have.

545
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 6: Not clinched the group yet. They do need a point.

546
00:24:58,720 --> 00:24:59,239
Speaker 3: Ye, I don't care.

547
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 6: Let's move on. They could lose by three, they could

548
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 6: lose by three to bar stuff.

549
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 4: They lost a kiya. I mean this all day, but

550
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 4: they won the group. But the thing is, the thing

551
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 4: is knowledgements, not rochating for this match. And so I

552
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 4: don't think that you know you're going to get a

553
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 4: down spot here from Byron. Maybe if they roll Osburg,

554
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 4: you can say, oh, you know they're gonna be flat,

555
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 4: But after they lose in that way, with that performance, uh,

556
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,159
Speaker 4: there will be no flat spot for Byron.

557
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 6: Uh happily passing here.

558
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 5: Uh so he.

559
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 3: Cares, Yeah, we can move on.

560
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I just think you know you're traveling.

561
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:39,159
Speaker 6: I'm sorry, be Ja, I could see I could let

562
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 6: me just say this, let me just say this.

563
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 3: Let me be downe let me just We'll be done

564
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 3: with this. They don't exist to me anymore. Okay, I'm

565
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 3: just going to block block them out and act like

566
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 3: they don't even exist unless they played PSG in the

567
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 3: route in the knockout stage, and then I'll be putting

568
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 3: all my money on them, all right.

569
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 4: I'm currently googling the Bayron schedule to see who we

570
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 4: have this weekend. Oh our media Blafield and then we

571
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 4: have we have Dort and so we've got the Classic

572
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 4: care coming up.

573
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 6: So we'll be talking some more behind in the next

574
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 6: couple weeks.

575
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 3: Great Can't Wait.

576
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 2: Group G Salsburg seven points at the top, LIL five,

577
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 2: Wolfsburg five, Sevilla three, LIL hosting Salsburg. LIL is plus

578
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 2: one forty five home favorite Salsburg plus two hundred the

579
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 2: draws plus two thirty five. This is a three pm

580
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 2: kickoff on Tuesday.

581
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 5: LIL.

582
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 2: They're plus ten expected gold differential in league, but they're

583
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 2: minus three goal differential in UH in real life. So

584
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: this team deserves a little bit better results. I think

585
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: that in this in this group the group of draws,

586
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 2: a group of great defenses, it's hard for me to

587
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: look away from the draw in this matchup, even with Salsburg,

588
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: who do play a style that's really not that conducive

589
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 2: to betting on draws.

590
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 5: So that's where I'm going because I.

591
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 2: Think Little could hold him here and I don't see

592
00:26:56,240 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 2: either team being that risky considering what they need to

593
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 2: advance out of this matchup. Lil should be on the

594
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,239
Speaker 2: front foot because a win does greatly benefit them, But

595
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 2: I just I think this match really has enough ingredients

596
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 2: for a drop at for me. So the plus two

597
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 2: thirty five for this match to end a tie, that's

598
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 2: where I'm going. DJ, Do you have anything on this one?

599
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 6: Yeah?

600
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:19,679
Speaker 3: I like under two goals and even money. You know,

601
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 3: Lil they are playing a lot more high scoring matches

602
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 3: this season than they did last year, but the low

603
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 3: scoring matches are coming at some point because they're due

604
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 3: for some positive aggression. Defensively, they've allowed twenty one goals

605
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 3: in League on, but they've been only off of fifteen

606
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 3: point seven expected goals. And also they're only allowing point

607
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 3: nine to eight non penalty expected goals per match, which

608
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 3: is second in League One, and they've allowed the fewest

609
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 3: big scoring chances, so their defense is still good. Their

610
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 3: teams are just shooting at an incredibly high rate against them,

611
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 3: so that's going to fall off at some point. And yes,

612
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 3: so if we go back to that last match against Salisburg,

613
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 3: you'll see Salisburg won two to one and they put

614
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 3: up over two expected goals, but both their goals came

615
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 3: off of penalties, and if we take away those two penalties,

616
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 3: these two team's total, both of them combined created one

617
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 3: point zero nine expected goals from open play. And like

618
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 3: you mentioned, Michael, Salzburg obviously they play very open, but

619
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 3: they can't really be the aggressor here. I don't see

620
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 3: how they would just come out on the front foot,

621
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 3: even though you know a win could clinch the group.

622
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 3: They're probably gonna to play pretty cautious early on, and

623
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 3: they might open up later in the match. And you know,

624
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 3: Litt's style of play and their four four two is

625
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 3: not really conducive to playing on the front foot open

626
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 3: style of play. So I do think it's gonna be

627
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 3: pretty cagy early on. We might see it open up

628
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 3: later in the match. But I only have two goals

629
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 3: projected for this one, so I'm gonna trust my numbers

630
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 3: and take under two and a half goals and even

631
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 3: money the.

632
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 5: Other match in this one, Sevilla.

633
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,959
Speaker 2: They're minus one thirty at home against Wolfsburg plus three

634
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,959
Speaker 2: sixty that draws plus two eighty three pm kickoff. I

635
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 2: believe all three of us are on the same side, Anthony.

636
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 2: Can you tell the wonderful people listening where we're going Savilla.

637
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 4: Finally they're gonna win a match in this group. Maybe

638
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 4: knows they've been really flat in the Champions League. It

639
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 4: makes not a ton of sense given how good of

640
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,239
Speaker 4: a tournament team they've been. Maybe it's they're only good

641
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 4: in the Europa League and we may have all missed that.

642
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 4: But this is a classic by loo Cell high spot.

643
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 4: We're getting Sevilla after a really bizarre loss at home

644
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 4: to the Deal. They concealed a dumb penalty, then they

645
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,719
Speaker 4: con sealed another goal, really blew that game after they

646
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 4: were in control, completely dominated the first thirty five to

647
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 4: forty minutes, and then just totally turned on its head

648
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 4: with a goal from Leo. Wolfsbury have won three of

649
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 4: four and draw on the fourth under new manager Florian Colefelt.

650
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 4: I want to thank him and send him a thank

651
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 4: you card for those couple of wins we had on Wilfsburg.

652
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 4: But you know, the performances have been better, but not good.

653
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 4: They're still a very mediocre team going forward. They scored

654
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 4: a great goal to beat Salzburg after at home. In

655
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 4: the last match they played, they rolled Everkusen, which was great,

656
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 4: but they've played even with Osburg and Armenia Biellafield, who

657
00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 4: are two relegation teams in the Bundesliga, in the last

658
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 4: two matches. Savia's defense has been very good when it's

659
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 4: not conceding penalties, so hopefully they don't concede a penalty here.

660
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 4: They've conceded five, I believe in the Champions League so far,

661
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 4: which is just absurd. There should be four.

662
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 6: It's conceded four in the group stage this year. They've

663
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 6: otherwise been excellent.

664
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 4: But the thing is that the Wolfsburg attack, I mean,

665
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 4: third fewest shots per ninety in the Champions League, third

666
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 4: fewest attacking area touches.

667
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 6: Savia is getting a lot.

668
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 4: More shots, not a lot of high quality shots. What

669
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 4: we know about Sevilla generally is they like to get

670
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 4: crosses into the box and turn those into shots. They

671
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 4: haven't quite come off, but I think they're close and

672
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 4: I think they will get one or two here and

673
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 4: win this match at home, getting a good number projected

674
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 4: minus one fifty seven, and so I like that up

675
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 4: to one forty one forty five and think and it

676
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 4: must win spot at home. I'm backing little Patagi and Sevia.

677
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean this Savia's team's hilarious because we

678
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 2: did tout them as a great tournament team coming in and.

679
00:30:58,160 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 5: What do they do.

680
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 2: They're running to the top of the table in La

681
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 2: Liga and struggling in Champions League. Right now, BJ, you're

682
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 2: on Sevilla, tell the good people why.

683
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a really really good team, just like anthey said,

684
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 3: they for whatever reason, just having put the results together

685
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 3: in the Champions League. You know, in La Liga plus

686
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 3: ten point eight or ten plus ten point one to

687
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 3: eight non penalty expected goal differential, which is second behind

688
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 3: only Real Madrid. They allowing point seventy three non penalty

689
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 3: expected goals per match, second in shots loud per ninety

690
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 3: and big scoring chances allowed in Laaliga. So really really

691
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 3: good defensive team. And the biggest thing that I took

692
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 3: away from their last match against Wolfsburg is Wolfsburg basically

693
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 3: just created one big chance they converted it and that

694
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 3: was it. They only had five shots total in the match,

695
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 3: and Seville really controlled most of that match. They held

696
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 3: sixty eight percent of the possession. And really what Sevia

697
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 3: does well against opponents like Wolfsburg is they're very very

698
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 3: good against press. They're number one in La Liga in

699
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 3: offensive pass per defensive action. Wolfsburg only had a twenty

700
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 3: one point seven percent successful pressure rate then rate against

701
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 3: them in the last meeting, and Wilsburg offensively, like Anthony mentioned,

702
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 3: they haven't been that great. Only one point twenty six

703
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals per match in the Bundesliga, which

704
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 3: is eighth fourteenth and big scoring chances, eighth in box

705
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 3: entries and only three point four expected goals in the

706
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 3: Champions League, and you know they're new. Like Anthony mentioned,

707
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: they're near the bottom and a lot of offensive metrics

708
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 3: in terms of all the Champions League teams. So perfect

709
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 3: spot here Sevilla. They have to win their plus two

710
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 3: to fifty two advance, which I think is a pretty

711
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 3: good number right now, but for this match, I have

712
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 3: them projected at minus one seventy one, so I like

713
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 3: them at minus one thirty.

714
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 2: All three of us on Sevilla. They're minus one thirty

715
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 2: at the moment. Let's move on to Wednesday. The headliner

716
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 2: on Wednesday is pretty easy to pick out. That's Manchester

717
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 2: City at home odds on minus one forty five against

718
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 2: PSG or plus three eighty the draw plus three ten.

719
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 2: This is a three pm kickoff on Wednesday. City they're

720
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 2: three to one favorites to win the Champions League, Iron

721
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 2: Munich three and a half to one, PSG's five to one,

722
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 2: Liverpool plus five fifty, Chelsea plus seven fifty, United sixteen

723
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 2: to one, and then a whole host of teams in

724
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: that mid tier behind them. It's sitting or nothing for

725
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: me here. I don't trust PSG as far as I

726
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 2: can throw them. I do trust Manchester City greatly. And

727
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 2: it really sucks that you that betting is a thing

728
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 2: that isn't easy, because it would just be great to

729
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: just be able to bet on Manchester City all the

730
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 2: time and kind of sit back and enjoy the show.

731
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 2: We don't really get to do that often because they

732
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 2: are priced out of out of.

733
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 5: Whack here, they're really not. I'm still probably won't lay

734
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 5: the minus one forty five.

735
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 2: I'll chase an ault number likely you know, minus one,

736
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,719
Speaker 2: maybe minus one and a half, because I think they

737
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 2: can get at this defense and score a bunch of goals.

738
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 5: Cities at nine points the top of the group with.

739
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 2: PSG at eight, so it could be a little bit

740
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 2: of an open game because PSG will want to at

741
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 2: least get a result out of this and City will

742
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 2: as well. Yeah, I think this Manchester City team's just

743
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 2: a couple tiers above PSG at the moment.

744
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 5: BJ. What about you, Yeah, this is the game of

745
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 5: the year for me.

746
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 3: I do not see how man City doesn't walk away

747
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 3: with all three points in this one. If we go

748
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 3: back to that last match, yes, PSG beat them two nothing,

749
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 3: but Manchester City one unexpected goals one point nine to

750
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 3: point eight. They had forty seven touches in the penalty

751
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 3: are compared to only eighteen for PSG, thirty one box

752
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 3: entries compared to only nine for PSG. And if we

753
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 3: combine the expected goals with their last two semi final

754
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 3: matches during the Champions League last year, man City's outcreated

755
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,240
Speaker 3: PSG three point nine three to two point five to three.

756
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 3: And what's really annoying about PSG is that, yes, they're

757
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 3: very good and they can dominate League GUN when they

758
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 3: played teams that are way below them. But when we've

759
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 3: seen in the Champions League in the past, when they

760
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 3: have to play teams like Manchester City or Bayern Munich,

761
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 3: those they cannot play open games with them. They're just

762
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 3: not good enough defensively, they're not good enough the midfield

763
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 3: to hang with those teams. And so for a situation

764
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 3: like this where they pretty much have to go for

765
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 3: it and they have to win and they have to

766
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:01,800
Speaker 3: try to play an open game with one of the

767
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 3: best teams in the world, how is that going to work?

768
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 3: Because the last two times that they've played Manchester City

769
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 3: City has pinned them in. PSG has been forced to

770
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 3: play two low blocks and they've basically had to just

771
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 3: send Neymar and Boppe and will now Messi out on

772
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 3: the counter and hope that they do something and create

773
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 3: something offensively. PSG plays very arrogant this way because they

774
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 3: basically say, hey, we're going to fence seven on seven

775
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 3: on ten and our three guys up top are good

776
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 3: enough to save us. And in a match like this

777
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 3: that just doesn't work. It's sure. They've shown it time

778
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 3: and time again against Manchester City. They are just not

779
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 3: good enough to play on their level with the defense

780
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 3: in the midfield they have. Through four matches, PSG minus

781
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 3: one point one expect a goal differential Manchester City plus

782
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 3: ten point four. It's even if we look at it domestically,

783
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 3: Manchester City plus nineteen point five to seven expect a

784
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 3: gold differential through thirteen matches, PSG only eleven point five

785
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,479
Speaker 3: to four in League on, which is five leagues below.

786
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 3: In terms of UA coefficient difficulty, I have Manchester City

787
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 3: projected at minus two forty two has them at sixty

788
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 3: seven percent. I really just don't see how PSG's even

789
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 3: going to hang in this match. They might get lucky

790
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 3: and they might continue to infuriate me, but this is

791
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 3: my game of the year. Manchester City in a route.

792
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 3: But I'll take their money line mins one forty five.

793
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 2: Anthony, you have the inenviable task of following that up.

794
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I'll make the case for PSG, even

795
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 4: though I'm also betting City. I mean, they played really

796
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 4: well defensively in the first leg in Paris, indrisic kind

797
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 4: of gay I thought was the best.

798
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 6: Player on the pitch.

799
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 4: Don Ruma saved a bunch of really good chances and

800
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:36,399
Speaker 4: overperformed in terms of what we expect from him. That's

801
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 4: all somewhat repeatable. But like BJ mentioned, I mean, when

802
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 4: you have the three best players, three of the five

803
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 4: best players in the world, I'd argue you have a

804
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 4: shot to beat anybody on any day, because all it

805
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,280
Speaker 4: takes is two or three or one or two moments

806
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 4: of combination between these supremely talented players to effectively chalk

807
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 4: that and say forget extra like, we can create two

808
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,720
Speaker 4: or three good chances and score enough to win this game. City,

809
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 4: you know, notoriously doesn't have a reliable striker at the

810
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 4: other end, so there's at the margins like reasons. You

811
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 4: could make a case that PSG maybe the advanced metters

812
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 4: don't catch up with them, But I mean, you're you're

813
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 4: making a lot of excuses like I just did to

814
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 4: make that case, And so I agree with BJ one

815
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 4: hundred percent here in terms of Manchester City being the

816
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 4: dominant team, the team who's at home, who has a

817
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 4: chance to make a statement here, who is in a

818
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 4: revenge spot.

819
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 6: PSG would probably take the.

820
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 4: Point given that they have the much easier final fixture,

821
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 4: and maybe City will drop points at Leipzig, who knows,

822
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 4: but City here ninth PSG has the ninth fewest shots

823
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,320
Speaker 4: per ninety the Champions League they were sixth ninth fewest

824
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 4: shot creating actions. And the one thing here that I

825
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 4: really like is if City goes up and they score first,

826
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 4: which can happen very easily, and they're expected to do PSG.

827
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 4: Bija mentioned having to come out and play similar to

828
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 4: what happened in the Champions League in the semi final

829
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 4: second leg last year. Plays into Citi's hands a little bit.

830
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 4: With guys like Foden and Grealish, who are so good

831
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 4: on the counter, so good in space, they can exploit

832
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 4: PSG similar to how the smaller teams have exploited PSG

833
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,399
Speaker 4: in transition this season. We saw Club Bruges it. We've

834
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 4: seen multiple teams in Legue damage them in transition. I

835
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 4: think it's very possible here. Game state makes a huge difference.

836
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 4: But I think if you like City and you don't

837
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 4: want to lay the juice, very similar to what I

838
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 4: said about Chelsea Chase, the alternate lines minus one and

839
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,879
Speaker 4: a half is plus two hundred, I might fire.

840
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:38,439
Speaker 6: I'm gonna fire on minus one and a half.

841
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 4: I may even fire on like a minus two and

842
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 4: a half super all, you know, kind of a few

843
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 4: bucks because I think this is a setup. A lot

844
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 4: of people are not happy with Poachatino at PSG right now.

845
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 4: A lot of PSG fans don't think they're playing at

846
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 4: their best. They don't have a tactical coherent system. Well,

847
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 4: there's anybody who's gonna exploit that. It's Pep Guardiola and

848
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 4: Manchester City. And so I agree one hundred percent. My

849
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 4: numbers one seventy eight, so not quite as good as

850
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,839
Speaker 4: projected as BJ's or as five thirty eight season, but

851
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:09,320
Speaker 4: again still also show value on the citizens who somehow

852
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 4: opened minus one to twenty in this match.

853
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 2: Group A, it's still up for grabs, right it would

854
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: take a miracle, but bub Bruges is still in it.

855
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 2: They're plus two to fifty five at home against Leipzig

856
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 2: who are plus one oh five on the road. The

857
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:27,280
Speaker 2: draws plus two sixty five Leipzig. They need two wins

858
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 2: basically just to get to Europa League ahead of Bruges,

859
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 2: whereas Bruges. This is a funny situation because getting into

860
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 2: the Europa League out of this group is it a

861
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 2: huge accomplishment for club Bruses considering their competition PSG, Man

862
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:47,240
Speaker 2: City and RB Leipzig. However, a win for Club Bruges

863
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 2: in this match against at Leipzig team that has struggled

864
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 2: in Champions League and took has taken some time to

865
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 2: figure out Jesse Marsha's system. If they do win this match,

866
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 2: then they played PSG in a she loses to City,

867
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 2: they played PSG in a winner advanced into the knockout stage,

868
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 2: which would be all sorts of pressure on PSG, and

869
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 2: we know that how the Parisians handle that. That being said,

870
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:13,919
Speaker 2: I like Leipsig plus one oh five. I think better

871
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 2: team there. They should be. They're playing better. Their defensive

872
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 2: numbers are still not great, but this is a team

873
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 2: that should score a lot of goals against a club

874
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 2: that has allowed eleven point seven expected goals in group

875
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 2: play so far.

876
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:33,879
Speaker 5: Obviously, the quality competitions through the roof BJ. What about you?

877
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:35,879
Speaker 5: Do you think Club Bruges can pull it off?

878
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,240
Speaker 3: I like leip seeing this one and honestly wouldn't surprise

879
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 3: me if Bruges just came out into the exact same

880
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 3: similar game plan Because all of Leipe six problems under

881
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,760
Speaker 3: Jesse marsh I've just been in defensive transition. Their offense

882
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 3: is still really really good. They're averaging two point zero

883
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 3: way to expect goals per match twenty They've already created

884
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 3: twenty four big scoring chances and are averaging sixteen point

885
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 3: twenty five box entries in the Bundesliga. So they're playing

886
00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 3: at the level they were playing out last year. It's

887
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 3: just have new two new center backs and their defensive

888
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 3: transition is just really really bad. And that's how Bruges

889
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 3: basically beat them because Rby Leipzig held sixty six percent

890
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 3: possession and dominated pretty much the box score. Against Club Bruges.

891
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 3: They had you know, thirty touches in their penalty area,

892
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 3: but Bruce just him on the counter one too many

893
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 3: times and they won two to one. I expect Bruce

894
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 3: to play very defensive in this match. They basically only

895
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:27,399
Speaker 3: need to draw to send them to the Europa League

896
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 3: Round of sixteen. But the thing is Brush hasn't been

897
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,839
Speaker 3: that great domestically in Belgium. They only have two wins

898
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 3: in the last seven matches and you're allowing one point

899
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,440
Speaker 3: one to six expect goals for match, which is not

900
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:43,399
Speaker 3: good considering Belgium's you know, thirteenth most difficult by UAPH coefficients,

901
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 3: and like you mentioned, eleven point four expected goals. Obviously

902
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 3: that's very inflated because of Manchester City. But from a

903
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 3: price point and projection standpoint, I have Arbi Leipsig at

904
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 3: minus one fourteen. If you look at five thirty eight,

905
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 3: I think they have them around fifty nine percent. So

906
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 3: I do think there is some value on Leipzig at

907
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 3: plus one five, who absolutely one percent has seal for

908
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 3: this match.

909
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a it's kind of a fun head.

910
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 2: In the heart thing, right, head says Leipzig, heart says,

911
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 2: I want Bruce to win, just because if they pick

912
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 2: off PSG, which that'd be so good, just so he's

913
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 2: so poetic. But this is betting, right, You got to

914
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:20,439
Speaker 2: wear the black hat and betting most of the time

915
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,320
Speaker 2: and bet against those kind of fun narratives, right Anthony.

916
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:26,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I guess I like Leipzig too. I'm not totally

917
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 4: sold on this Bruce team, who had a good performance.

918
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 4: Bj is right, but Leipzig was playing much worse than

919
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 4: than they are right now. If we look at Leipzig

920
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:38,880
Speaker 4: right now, my projections make the minus one twenty in

921
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 4: kun Ku Christ and Kunku is in the middle of

922
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:45,240
Speaker 4: a breakout year point seventy six expected goals plus expected

923
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:49,919
Speaker 4: assists per ninety. Like BJ said, Leipzig's expected goals numbers

924
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 4: are pretty similar going forward as they were last year,

925
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 4: but their worst defensively that remains true. But in terms

926
00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 4: of trending in the right direction, I know they had

927
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 4: a terrible loss of Hoffenheim that actually provides some value here.

928
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 6: The look aheadline lipstick was minus.

929
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 4: Now they're plus one oh five, So you're getting about

930
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 4: fifteen cents difference based on one bad game against Hoffenheim,

931
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 4: and so I think anything plus money is good here

932
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 4: on Leipzig, I am expecting them to be going in

933
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 4: an all in spot.

934
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:19,839
Speaker 6: Here because the Europa League is still important for them.

935
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 6: It's a competition.

936
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 4: I think they might have an outside shot to really

937
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 4: make a deep run and win if they sort some

938
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:27,799
Speaker 4: things out in the next few months under Marsh and

939
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:30,319
Speaker 4: so a win here pretty much puts them in a

940
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 4: good spot for that and that's where I'm looking.

941
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 2: Moving on to Group B Liverpool, they've punched their ticket

942
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 2: as the group winners at twelve points. Porto their second

943
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 2: with five at Letty is full in third place with

944
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 2: four points and AC a lot with one point.

945
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 5: They can still advance.

946
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 2: They need two wins to do it and some luck

947
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 2: at Let it Go Madrid is minus one sixty five

948
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,959
Speaker 2: at home against AC MILT plus four fifty on the road.

949
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,280
Speaker 2: The draws plus three ten. It's a three pm kickoff.

950
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:03,400
Speaker 2: I think this match also sets up has enough ingredient

951
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 2: for me to bet the draw. It's over three to one,

952
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 2: which I think when you're talking about Atletico Madrid, a

953
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 2: team that plays a very structured game taking on another

954
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:16,399
Speaker 2: team that's got decent defensive numbers in Syria, not great,

955
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: but good enough, I think that I don't really see

956
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 2: many risks coming out of Atletico in this match. I'm

957
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 2: sure they should win it, and they should try to

958
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 2: win it, but I just think that this could be

959
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 2: a pretty pragmatic chess match, so I like to draw here.

960
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 2: I think it'll be a pretty low event game. Anthony,

961
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 2: what about you?

962
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm passing right now. I need to wait and

963
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,839
Speaker 4: see what the lineup's gonna look like, because I am

964
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 4: not sure how seriously Milan's gonna take this game. If

965
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 4: they put a great lineup out there, I'm gonna be

966
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 4: on the plus one if they don't pass because Milan

967
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 4: is out of this basically they know that, and they

968
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 4: didn't really take their last game that seriously.

969
00:44:59,200 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 6: They rested a bunch of guy.

970
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 4: They did have a look ahead to the Milhan Darby

971
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 4: that Sunday, so to factor that in.

972
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 6: Milan struggled badly with Porto.

973
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 4: But if you go back to when these two teams

974
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 4: played the first time, Milam is the better team in

975
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:10,720
Speaker 4: the first half.

976
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 6: Red card changed the game. They were up a goal.

977
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 4: They had a bad loss at the weekend if you

978
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,239
Speaker 4: are in Tina. So I'm passing at the current number.

979
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 4: But I think ed Lettie's overvalued if Milan puts their

980
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 4: best players out and I think the line is the

981
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 4: way it is because they're expecting Milan to rotate and

982
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 4: kind of not put their best guys out there.

983
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 2: So for now, past BJ you and I have been

984
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 2: burned by this Athletico Madrid team time and time again.

985
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:36,879
Speaker 2: So you're you're going to stay away from them this time,

986
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:37,919
Speaker 2: right and take us somewhere else.

987
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna. I'm gonna go all under two goals,

988
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:42,760
Speaker 3: which is currently at even money. You know, ac Milan,

989
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 3: it's very troubling and weird. What's happening to them in

990
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 3: the Champions League right now? Obviously, like Anthony mentioned, you know,

991
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:50,760
Speaker 3: they got the red card thirty minutes and against Athletickoma

992
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 3: Dride completely changed the match. But they're they obviously are

993
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 3: putting up great offensive numbers in Syria, which is a

994
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,399
Speaker 3: very traditionally you know, high scoring, open style of play

995
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 3: from a lot of tea tea, and then they come

996
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 3: to the Champions League and they've had to play two

997
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:05,320
Speaker 3: very structured, defensive four to four to two type of

998
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 3: teams in Porto and Athletico Madrid, and they've really really struggled.

999
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 3: They have in four matches they have a total of

1000
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 3: twenty six shots and thirty three shot creating actions. That

1001
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 3: is dead last of anybody in the Champions League, that

1002
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:22,040
Speaker 3: includes Malmo, that includes Demo Kiev, that includes Sheriff. They

1003
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 3: are dead last and pretty much every single offensive metric

1004
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 3: that we look at here in the Champions League and

1005
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 3: Athletic Coo Madrid is playing very very good defensively against

1006
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 3: open play. They're only allowing nine point one seven non

1007
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:38,399
Speaker 3: penalty expected goals through thirteen matches. They've had some bad

1008
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 3: luck on some penalties, some bad luck on some set pieces,

1009
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 3: but you know, their expected goals on set pieces is

1010
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 3: much better than what their actual results are. Athletico really,

1011
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 3: you know, they haven't been that dominant offensively baltimsically and

1012
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 3: the Champions League one point four to six expected goals

1013
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,360
Speaker 3: for match in La Liga only four point seven expected

1014
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,839
Speaker 3: goals through four Champions League matches, and you know that

1015
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 3: includes them being up you know, sixty minutes and a

1016
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:05,760
Speaker 3: fluke penalty against AC Milan. Milan's been very good defensively

1017
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 3: in Syria. I'll only point nine to three non penalty

1018
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 3: expectacles per match allowed, which is second in the league.

1019
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:15,239
Speaker 3: And you know, I just if Milan really doesn't care

1020
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 3: about this match at all, They're probably just going to

1021
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:19,360
Speaker 3: sit back and probably play defensively and just hope for

1022
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 3: you know, a result at least get a point on

1023
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 3: the board. So I only have two point two two

1024
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 3: goals projected for this match, So I'm gonna take a

1025
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 3: shot on under two and a half goals at even money.

1026
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 2: The other match A Group B Liverpool minus one oh

1027
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,439
Speaker 2: five at home against Porto plus two to seventy five.

1028
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 2: The draw is plus two eighty five. Another three pm

1029
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:42,399
Speaker 2: kickoff on Wednesday. Liverpool has nothing to play for here,

1030
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 2: so I'm assuming, especially coming off a pretty high, highly

1031
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 2: emotional win over Arsenal over the weekend, that urga Klapp,

1032
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 2: who is never has a problem playing, you know, like

1033
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 2: a Liverpool you twenty three team in these kind of spots,

1034
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 2: We'll basically do just that and that is definitely baked

1035
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 2: into the here, right Like this is a number that

1036
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 2: probably should if Liverpool has have to played for, would

1037
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 2: probably be like minus one sixty or something.

1038
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 5: It would be a lot higher than this. Uh So

1039
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 5: it's Porto or nothing for me.

1040
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:15,280
Speaker 2: I don't really think that there's really that much reason

1041
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 2: to get involved, Anthony.

1042
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:19,239
Speaker 5: I believe you're going the other way though.

1043
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 6: I like Liverpool.

1044
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm waiting to bet this because I'm going to

1045
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 4: wait to see if we get any news in terms

1046
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 4: of who's gonna play, who's not gonna play. But klopps

1047
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:32,800
Speaker 4: said early November after they won their last match against

1048
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 4: Atleti that clinched the group. He said there may be

1049
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 4: some minor changes, but do not expect wholesale overhaul of

1050
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:44,240
Speaker 4: the team now. He said that, do I believe everything

1051
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 4: he says? No, So I'm gonna wait, but you know

1052
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 4: peyko'st tention following the app this will be out Monday morning.

1053
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 4: We'll probably have some more news on who is and

1054
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 4: who isn't going to play Monday into Tuesday ahead of

1055
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 4: the Wednesday game. I'm gonna be looking to play Liverpool

1056
00:48:59,880 --> 00:49:04,280
Speaker 4: because at home Porto has had terrible success.

1057
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:05,360
Speaker 6: In the past against the Reds.

1058
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 4: This is a fundamental mismatch in terms of style of

1059
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 4: play because Porto doesn't really have an ability to play

1060
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 4: out against the Liverpool pressure. They're not very good against it.

1061
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 4: I like Liverpool a lot at that number. Now, obviously

1062
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 4: the number is wrong if Liverpool plays.

1063
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:22,880
Speaker 6: A full team. The market is clearly indicating there's.

1064
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:26,880
Speaker 4: Going to be some overhaul. But Liverpool's squad depth is

1065
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 4: better than it's been in years past. It's better than

1066
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 4: it was last year or two years ago, and they've

1067
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,240
Speaker 4: had a lot of injuries as is, so they've gotten

1068
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 4: a lot of players rotated in through the team, and

1069
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:38,920
Speaker 4: so I'm not sure the drop off is that big either.

1070
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 4: Obviously with the front three maybe, but after that, the midfield,

1071
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,359
Speaker 4: the defense, there's some room for drop off and some

1072
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 4: rotation guys to get in there. Without a huge issue.

1073
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,799
Speaker 4: And I think Liverpool, you know, is just a little

1074
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:54,719
Speaker 4: undervalued here given what we don't know about who's going

1075
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:56,840
Speaker 4: to play, and given the Cop indicated he might play

1076
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 4: most of his starters.

1077
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:00,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, one thing I'll say is that if we go

1078
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 3: back to when Liverpool won the Premier League title, they

1079
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 3: they won it basically with like eight matches left. It

1080
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:09,400
Speaker 3: was you know, during obviously the pandemic. But like anthey

1081
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 3: mentioned Cop, he did, he played all his starters, like

1082
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 3: he consistently was just like no, no, no, We're just going

1083
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 3: to continue to play our starters through and through. So

1084
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 3: it wouldn't surprise me at all if if he came

1085
00:50:18,239 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 3: out with a big match, because I'm pretty sure they

1086
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 3: don't have a very difficult Premier League match coming up

1087
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 3: this weekend, So I wouldn't shock me at all if

1088
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:29,959
Speaker 3: he just went, you know, full tilt, especially at home,

1089
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 3: you know, with all of his starters. So I'm with Anthony,

1090
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,560
Speaker 3: and I'm going to anthy that I'm going to pass

1091
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 3: for now. But if it comes out that you know,

1092
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:41,399
Speaker 3: Mane and Sala and Jolta are all starting up top,

1093
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:43,840
Speaker 3: then I think it's gonna be a Liverpool player you

1094
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:44,840
Speaker 3: know at minus one fifteen.

1095
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,320
Speaker 6: Liverpool hosts Southampton at the weekend.

1096
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:49,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, there you go. Yeah, so kind of difficult, but

1097
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:50,400
Speaker 3: not really.

1098
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 2: The chaos and conspiracy theory would be that Liverpool does

1099
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 2: lay down and plays an inferior lineup to get Porto

1100
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 2: through because of the many burgeoning rivalry with at Letty

1101
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 2: over the past couple of years.

1102
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 3: Let's move on to Group C I.

1103
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 4: Also interested in Porto's striker, and so they're trying to

1104
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:14,839
Speaker 4: get a deal done in January for ds and you know,

1105
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:15,760
Speaker 4: maybe hey.

1106
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:18,759
Speaker 6: We'll throw this match help you out. That's definitely not

1107
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:19,720
Speaker 6: something I'm considering.

1108
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 4: But like you know them, if you want to get

1109
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 4: in the back room deals, then it can.

1110
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:28,879
Speaker 3: Then his price goes up, right, That's also true.

1111
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 2: We're not going to get it to the Luis dso

1112
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 2: who by the way, Everdence should have signed a long

1113
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 2: time ago and then failed at it. Sporting plus one

1114
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 2: ninety taken on Dortmund. This is Group C I X

1115
00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 2: at the top. They're twelve points, Dortmant at six, Sporting

1116
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 2: at six, Bashik this at zero.

1117
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:45,320
Speaker 5: So this is a huge match.

1118
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 2: Sporting uh their plus one ninety at home dortmun plus

1119
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 2: one forty the draws plus two to fifty.

1120
00:51:51,880 --> 00:51:53,799
Speaker 5: We know what this Dortmund team kind of is at

1121
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:54,240
Speaker 5: this point.

1122
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 2: They are all over the place defensively, but they can

1123
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 2: score six goals in the blank an eye when they're

1124
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 2: when they're firing and all fit. I think, though, I

1125
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:09,560
Speaker 2: kind of like this match to be a draw. I

1126
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 2: think is once again, this is another match where I

1127
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 2: think that, uh, you're going to see a team like

1128
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 2: Sporting is not going to play into Dortmun's hands, like

1129
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 2: they're going to make sure that this is a slog.

1130
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 2: And uh, I don't I'm not too terrified of betting

1131
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 2: a Dortmund draws is very very frightening, But in this

1132
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 2: kind of game state and this with these stakes, I

1133
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 2: don't really think it's a it's a terrible bet, so

1134
00:52:36,040 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 2: I'll I'll go after that one. I'm going to probably

1135
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 2: bet a small one on the draw. I don't think

1136
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 2: it's that much value. It's it's gonna be a fun

1137
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 2: one to watch just because of the stakes involved.

1138
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 3: BJ. What about you, Yeah, you mentioned that you know

1139
00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 3: this match being a slog. The last time these two met,

1140
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 3: and it was an absolute slog old dormant one zero

1141
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 3: win but only a total of point seventy to one

1142
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:59,320
Speaker 3: expected goals created by both sides in this one, and

1143
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 3: early Holland is out for that one. He's going to

1144
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 3: be out again for this match. And Dorman struggles offensively

1145
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 3: when he's not on the pitch. This year, Dorman only

1146
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 3: averages one point four expected goals from match without him

1147
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 3: on the field. When he's on the field two point

1148
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 3: three to five expected goals for match, so he makes

1149
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:19,479
Speaker 3: a huge, huge difference for their offense. Like you mentioned,

1150
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 3: Sporting traditionally sets up very defensively. Now, obviously if you

1151
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:25,919
Speaker 3: look at expected goals and you look at what they've

1152
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,240
Speaker 3: done so far, you'll see they have eight point six

1153
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 3: created through four matches. Well, seven point four of eight

1154
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 3: of those were against Bashita's, so they only created one

1155
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:37,480
Speaker 3: point one to two against IAX and Dortmann, and I

1156
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:40,520
Speaker 3: am expecting them to play very defensive and kind of

1157
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 3: struggle to create something offensively going forward in this one.

1158
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 3: You know, Sporting defensively this season, They've only allowed eight

1159
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 3: expected goals domestically in Portugal through eleven matches, so they

1160
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:58,520
Speaker 3: are a very good defensive team without Holland on the field.

1161
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 3: I think this over under is a inflated I have

1162
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 3: two point five to two goals projected for this one,

1163
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:08,240
Speaker 3: and that's without factoring in, you know, the Holland bump.

1164
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 3: So I do think there's some value on under two

1165
00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 3: and a half goals at plus one fifteen.

1166
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 2: The other matching group sees Bushikas at home there plus

1167
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 2: five point fifty against I X, who are minus through

1168
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 2: ten the Druss plus three eighty. I mean, you semantics,

1169
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:27,760
Speaker 2: you could say Bashkas they could win you know, twelve

1170
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 2: nothing and then win against twelve nothing in advance if

1171
00:54:30,120 --> 00:54:32,839
Speaker 2: every other thing goes their way, but where they could

1172
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 2: get into the Europa League.

1173
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:35,279
Speaker 5: I guess if well, that goes away.

1174
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 2: But basically neither of these teams have anything to play for,

1175
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:42,800
Speaker 2: which makes it very complicated to handicap. I do wonder

1176
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:46,840
Speaker 2: if IX will just basically not send anybody to Turkey.

1177
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:48,759
Speaker 2: And if that's the case, and you want to just

1178
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:51,359
Speaker 2: watch the match, and just because it is a twelve

1179
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 2: forty five kickoff, maybe you want to bet Bishika as

1180
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:56,360
Speaker 2: a huge home underdog. It would be funny if that

1181
00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:58,600
Speaker 2: this is the game that slows.

1182
00:54:58,200 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 5: Down I X.

1183
00:54:59,239 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 2: But other than that, I don't really think there's too

1184
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:02,760
Speaker 2: much to get involved in here.

1185
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 5: What about you, BJ.

1186
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, one thing I'll say this is a well I

1187
00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:09,439
Speaker 3: want to say it's a pass for me, but I'm

1188
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 3: interesting an inching closer to playing Bashitas. You know, a

1189
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:14,440
Speaker 3: spread of plus one or plus one. I have Anthony

1190
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:16,520
Speaker 3: shake in his head. He doesn't don't do it. No,

1191
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 3: I kind of want to because don't do it. The

1192
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 3: thing about it is is that that first match, but

1193
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 3: she just had nobody. They like had eight starters out,

1194
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:27,280
Speaker 3: so obviously i X dominated them. IX has absolutely nothing

1195
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:29,279
Speaker 3: to play for. I do think this line is a

1196
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 3: tad overinflated. And if you look at I asks domestically,

1197
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 3: they're tied with PSV in the area to BSA, so

1198
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:39,320
Speaker 3: they kind of have to at this point like focus

1199
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 3: on their domestic campaign and actually winning another title, whereas

1200
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 3: this match, you know, going to Turkey, it doesn't really

1201
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 3: mean anything now. But she's this is horrible, Like they

1202
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:49,200
Speaker 3: are really really bad defensively. But you know, if they

1203
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 3: actually have a full lineup of players out there, and

1204
00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:55,440
Speaker 3: I gets steamed to minus three hundred minus three twenty,

1205
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 3: which is not out of the realm of possibility, I

1206
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 3: could be playing. You know, Bashita does four and a

1207
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:02,839
Speaker 3: half at home or something like that. But you know,

1208
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 3: I don't really want to, but you know, at some

1209
00:56:05,640 --> 00:56:06,919
Speaker 3: point we got to play numbers here.

1210
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it is interesting, right I X is minus

1211
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:11,760
Speaker 2: two ten on the road in a game that doesn't

1212
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:13,799
Speaker 2: matter to them at all, And we just talked about

1213
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:16,279
Speaker 2: Liverpool who are minus one o five at home in

1214
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 2: a game that doesn't matter to them at all. And

1215
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 2: I know Porto is a much much better team than

1216
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:22,399
Speaker 2: Bashik this is and has a lot more to play

1217
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 2: for than them, but it's just interesting. So yeah, I

1218
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:27,880
Speaker 2: do think it's it's Bashik this or nothing. If you

1219
00:56:28,040 --> 00:56:32,319
Speaker 2: are right in the head here Group D, we will

1220
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:34,759
Speaker 2: wrap up with them. Real Madrid there at the top

1221
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:38,239
Speaker 2: at nine points, inter Milan seven points, Sheriff Turists Bull

1222
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 2: six points, Shaktar at one point.

1223
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:41,240
Speaker 5: At the foot of the table.

1224
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 2: Sheriff are ten to one home underdogs against Real Madrid,

1225
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 2: who are minus four hundred on the road.

1226
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:49,880
Speaker 5: The draw is plus five fifty.

1227
00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 2: Real Madrid of course, famously lost to Sheriff in the

1228
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 2: first fixture between these two sides, so they will be

1229
00:56:57,040 --> 00:57:03,319
Speaker 2: coming to the disputed territory of Transnistria with revenge on

1230
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 2: their minds. Is that enough for you to lay minus

1231
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:07,840
Speaker 2: four hundred, Anthony?

1232
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:10,600
Speaker 4: No, but I'll go back to my well on the

1233
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:14,800
Speaker 4: Sheriff first half unders. Sheriff has a ton of attacking

1234
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 4: regression coming. They are over performing their expected goals by

1235
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 4: more than almost every team in the entire Champions League

1236
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 4: thus far.

1237
00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 6: I think they've.

1238
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 4: Scored almost all their goals from outside the penalty area

1239
00:57:25,600 --> 00:57:29,040
Speaker 4: or on low quality chances. They have not created many

1240
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 4: good scoring chances. They had a wonderful free kick, scored

1241
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 4: a late goal against Inter and a consolation goal. I

1242
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:39,560
Speaker 4: think they can hold out here at home, though for

1243
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 4: a half. I think the defense eventually will wear down,

1244
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:43,960
Speaker 4: similar to what happened against Inter. They'll eventually find the

1245
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 4: break through Real Madrid, despite defensive issues. For Real Madrid

1246
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:51,360
Speaker 4: always dangerous to back one of their unders. Don't see

1247
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 4: Sheriff scoring here. Pretty luck box attack and Realit's attack

1248
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 4: continues to be running hot. They scored four goals against

1249
00:57:58,560 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 4: Bernada at the weekend.

1250
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 2: Uh.

1251
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 4: I think they'll win here, but I think it'll be

1252
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:04,800
Speaker 4: some resistance in the first half and then they pull

1253
00:58:04,840 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 4: away in the second.

1254
00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:09,320
Speaker 5: DJ you see this one as low scoring as well, right, Yeah?

1255
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go full game under three and a half.

1256
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 3: Box score of Sheriff Real Madrid last match is quite

1257
00:58:14,120 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 3: hilarious in all timer. In all time or three, Real

1258
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:19,880
Speaker 3: Madrid three point two expect goals to point three five.

1259
00:58:19,920 --> 00:58:24,080
Speaker 3: They outshot Sheriff thirty to four, completed six hundred and

1260
00:58:24,120 --> 00:58:26,280
Speaker 3: thirty two passes compared to only one one hundred and

1261
00:58:26,360 --> 00:58:29,040
Speaker 3: seventy seven for Sheriff. But what I will say is

1262
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:31,439
Speaker 3: that even though Real Madrid had thirty shots in the game,

1263
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:35,280
Speaker 3: they only created one big scoring chance the entire match,

1264
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 3: and also their only goal came off a penalty. So

1265
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:39,960
Speaker 3: this is also Real Madrid team we've been talking about

1266
00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:41,440
Speaker 3: for a long time that's due for a lot of

1267
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 3: negative aggression offensively. Now I think it's going to come

1268
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:47,640
Speaker 3: in this match. Maybe not really, but you know, Sheriff

1269
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 3: is going to set up very defensively. They you know,

1270
00:58:50,520 --> 00:58:54,479
Speaker 3: outside of a shocking you know, Shocktar win over inter

1271
00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 3: and if they lose Real Madrid, that's the only path

1272
00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:00,720
Speaker 3: that you know, Shaktar has of knocking them out of

1273
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 3: the round of sixteen for the Europa League, which I'm

1274
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:05,280
Speaker 3: guessing they're going to be focused on over Actually, you know,

1275
00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 3: trying to qualify for the Champions League Round of sixteen,

1276
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:10,760
Speaker 3: which doesn't look very likely right now, but hey, if

1277
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 3: they pull off another upset, they can definitely, you know,

1278
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:18,040
Speaker 3: potentially get there. But yeah, I see Sheriff setting up

1279
00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 3: very very deep, very very defensive, basically just trying to

1280
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 3: drag this match out as long as they possibly can,

1281
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 3: which is basically the blueprint for all the minnos in

1282
00:59:27,280 --> 00:59:30,560
Speaker 3: the Champions League, which you know, it worked for Sheriff

1283
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 3: in the first match, so maybe it'll work again, but

1284
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:36,480
Speaker 3: I highly doubt it. If you're consistently getting out shot

1285
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:40,040
Speaker 3: by twenty six shots, it's very hard to continually win

1286
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:43,520
Speaker 3: like that, So yeah, I think it's also you know,

1287
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 3: I looked up the forecast for Tearspool. It's gonna be

1288
00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 3: blow freezing. But again, you know, real Madrid just routed

1289
00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 3: shocked her in freezing temperatures the last time they had

1290
00:59:54,720 --> 00:59:56,040
Speaker 3: to play in the cold, so I guess it doesn't

1291
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 3: really matter to them anymore. But yeah, I only have

1292
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:00,920
Speaker 3: two point six to four go projected for this one,

1293
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:02,960
Speaker 3: so I do like under three and a half goals

1294
01:00:03,000 --> 01:00:03,800
Speaker 3: at minus one twenty.

1295
01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 2: When the government gets they're hands on BJ Countyhand's computer

1296
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:10,160
Speaker 2: because he is someone who bets college football as well

1297
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 2: as soccer, and they're gonna see him looking up weather

1298
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,200
Speaker 2: in you know, Colorado Springs and then I live on

1299
01:00:15,200 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 2: the weather Channel.

1300
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 3: Yep, I live on the Weather Channel and windy dot com.

1301
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:21,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna they're gonna be like, this guy really

1302
01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 2: really really loves weather patterns, but only in some really

1303
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 2: weird areas. All right, let's wrap it up with the

1304
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:30,480
Speaker 2: final match. That's inter Milan minus three hundred at home.

1305
01:00:30,520 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 2: He gets Shocktar eight to one. The draw is plus

1306
01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 2: four seventy five. Like, like I said, shocktars at the

1307
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 2: foot of the table. They need to win to even

1308
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:42,120
Speaker 2: have a chance of getting into the Europa League enter

1309
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:45,280
Speaker 2: they If they do win, they should be in very

1310
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 2: very very good shape of advancing in the Champions League.

1311
01:00:49,000 --> 01:00:52,080
Speaker 2: I've got nothing on this one, Anthony.

1312
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:52,160
Speaker 5: What about you?

1313
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:54,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go both teams to score minus one

1314
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 4: twenty here. This is all about Shocktar attacking offensive numbers,

1315
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:01,840
Speaker 4: projecting them to be better than they've been thus far.

1316
01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:04,680
Speaker 4: They've been the biggest disappointment in the entire group stage,

1317
01:01:04,760 --> 01:01:07,480
Speaker 4: but they haven't been quite as bad as their numbers

1318
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:10,200
Speaker 4: suggest when you look at their expected goals versus their

1319
01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:12,479
Speaker 4: actual goals, they've created a lot of chances and missed

1320
01:01:12,520 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 4: a lot of big scoring chances. They really were a

1321
01:01:15,000 --> 01:01:17,560
Speaker 4: bit unfortunate to only get one at Real Madrid. I

1322
01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:20,360
Speaker 4: thought they were better than that and probably deserved a

1323
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:22,880
Speaker 4: second as well. They had multiple chances break down at

1324
01:01:22,880 --> 01:01:26,040
Speaker 4: the very last chance against Inter. They created a few

1325
01:01:26,040 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 4: offset pieces as well when they played them in the

1326
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:30,960
Speaker 4: reverse fixture. I think this sets up to be a

1327
01:01:31,080 --> 01:01:34,080
Speaker 4: very open game, whereas Shaktar has nothing to play for

1328
01:01:34,200 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 4: nothing to lose, could get open. We tend to see

1329
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 4: defenses get worse more than attacks get worse when we

1330
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 4: take meaning out of a soccer game in terms of implications,

1331
01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:45,720
Speaker 4: and so both teams to score here minus one twenty

1332
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 4: always need a good BTTs when it comes to a

1333
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:50,560
Speaker 4: Champions League match. I haven't had any of this round,

1334
01:01:50,640 --> 01:01:53,920
Speaker 4: so let's do it. Both teams to score Inter and.

1335
01:01:54,120 --> 01:01:59,320
Speaker 2: Scheck Tar bj the shack. Their team has also passed

1336
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:02,919
Speaker 2: us quite out of heartbreak. I'm not going back to them,

1337
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:05,480
Speaker 2: but you're you're a stronger man than I am.

1338
01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:08,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I didn't take them against Real Madrid and

1339
01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 3: my view one of those biggest regrets in my life.

1340
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:13,560
Speaker 3: They looked much better, you know, only lost expected goals

1341
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:15,520
Speaker 3: battle one point nine to seven to one point twenty nine,

1342
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 3: created two big scoring chances against Real Madrid's defense. And

1343
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 3: if we go back to that match against Interi, like

1344
01:02:21,400 --> 01:02:23,560
Speaker 3: Anthony mentioned, they were the better side in that match.

1345
01:02:23,600 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 3: They had sixty six percent possession and had a complete

1346
01:02:27,480 --> 01:02:29,960
Speaker 3: over three hundred more passes than ter did. They just

1347
01:02:30,040 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 3: weren't clinical in the final third. You know, this is

1348
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:35,360
Speaker 3: an inter squad that was obviously humming offensively right now.

1349
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:37,480
Speaker 3: You know one point nine three non penalty expectacles per

1350
01:02:37,520 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 3: match number one and big scoring chances third and shots

1351
01:02:41,000 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 3: for ninety in Syria. Ah, but there are a little

1352
01:02:42,880 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 3: bit of some question marks Inter's defense they're tenth in

1353
01:02:47,480 --> 01:02:51,040
Speaker 3: Syria and shots loud per ninety and their team that's

1354
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:54,080
Speaker 3: really used to having the ball considering their dead last

1355
01:02:54,120 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 3: and total pressures in fifteenth in ball recoveries in Syria.

1356
01:02:57,320 --> 01:02:59,960
Speaker 3: So if Shottar is able to control a large share

1357
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:02,520
Speaker 3: possession and just be more clinical in the final third,

1358
01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:05,960
Speaker 3: they can definitely pull off an upset here. So you know,

1359
01:03:05,960 --> 01:03:08,720
Speaker 3: Shoktra has also been a really good form in Ukraine

1360
01:03:09,320 --> 01:03:11,760
Speaker 3: won their last five matches. Mike Mine score of seventeen

1361
01:03:11,800 --> 01:03:15,400
Speaker 3: to five, averaging two point zero one expected goals per match. Domestically,

1362
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 3: I only have Inter at minus two twenty three, so

1363
01:03:19,360 --> 01:03:21,400
Speaker 3: I do think they're a tad over value here. So

1364
01:03:21,440 --> 01:03:23,280
Speaker 3: I like Shocktar plus one and a half at minus

1365
01:03:23,320 --> 01:03:23,680
Speaker 3: one ten.

1366
01:03:24,600 --> 01:03:25,960
Speaker 5: Lovely stuff. Lovely stuff.

1367
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:29,880
Speaker 2: All right, we'll bring this show to a rap with

1368
01:03:29,960 --> 01:03:34,320
Speaker 2: our favorite bet of match Week five in the Champions League.

1369
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:35,320
Speaker 5: I like Vioreal.

1370
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:37,320
Speaker 2: I think you're getting a pretty good number to go

1371
01:03:37,360 --> 01:03:40,400
Speaker 2: against Manchester United, who are being the price is being

1372
01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:43,480
Speaker 2: inflated on because they let go eight gunner Soulshar. So

1373
01:03:43,560 --> 01:03:46,040
Speaker 2: I'll go against the new manager Bounce Vioreal the Yellow

1374
01:03:46,040 --> 01:03:48,600
Speaker 2: submarine at home. They're plus one eighty five right now.

1375
01:03:48,600 --> 01:03:51,440
Speaker 2: That number might tick up as more people bet into

1376
01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:52,440
Speaker 2: the new manager.

1377
01:03:52,480 --> 01:03:55,320
Speaker 5: Bounce for United. BJ what's your favorite bet this week?

1378
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:59,240
Speaker 3: Manchester City minus one forty five against PSG. Manchester City

1379
01:03:59,360 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 3: was really unlucky to lose in Paris last time these

1380
01:04:02,160 --> 01:04:04,960
Speaker 3: two met. They want unexpected goles one point nine to

1381
01:04:04,960 --> 01:04:08,240
Speaker 3: two point eight. They basically lived inside PSG's final third

1382
01:04:08,280 --> 01:04:09,840
Speaker 3: and that's the biggest thing in this match is that

1383
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:12,920
Speaker 3: PSG is a team that's really used to having the ball,

1384
01:04:13,360 --> 01:04:15,040
Speaker 3: especially in the gun when they can dominate some of

1385
01:04:15,040 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 3: the smaller sides. But we've seen it consistently in Champions

1386
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:19,920
Speaker 3: League pass when they have to face a team like

1387
01:04:19,960 --> 01:04:23,040
Speaker 3: Manchester City or Byron Eunich, they're not going to have

1388
01:04:23,080 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 3: a large share of the possession. If they want to

1389
01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:26,400
Speaker 3: try to play an open game with Pep Guardiola, that's

1390
01:04:26,440 --> 01:04:28,600
Speaker 3: just a nightmare matchup for them because they're very average

1391
01:04:28,600 --> 01:04:32,560
Speaker 3: in the midfield, very average defensively, and Manchester City consistently

1392
01:04:32,600 --> 01:04:36,640
Speaker 3: in the Champions League has dominated possession lived inside PSG's

1393
01:04:36,640 --> 01:04:38,840
Speaker 3: final third, and I think that'll be another similar match

1394
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 3: because PSG plays very arrogant when they have three of

1395
01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:44,000
Speaker 3: the best attacking players in the world, because those three

1396
01:04:44,120 --> 01:04:46,720
Speaker 3: don't defend. So basically what you're saying is we're targing

1397
01:04:46,760 --> 01:04:49,200
Speaker 3: to try to defend seven on ten against one of

1398
01:04:49,240 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 3: the best attacking teams in the world, and they're not

1399
01:04:52,040 --> 01:04:53,520
Speaker 3: gonna be able to do any build up play either,

1400
01:04:53,600 --> 01:04:56,440
Speaker 3: because you know Manchester City's press getting them forward is

1401
01:04:56,440 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 3: going to force me and a Rama to send it

1402
01:04:57,880 --> 01:05:00,440
Speaker 3: long and just hope that in Bope messire Mark and

1403
01:05:00,480 --> 01:05:03,720
Speaker 3: creates something and if it Manchester City scores first here

1404
01:05:04,080 --> 01:05:07,720
Speaker 3: and this game turns open, it's a nightmare matchup for PSG.

1405
01:05:07,880 --> 01:05:11,040
Speaker 3: So I have Manchester City projected at minus two forty two,

1406
01:05:11,200 --> 01:05:14,480
Speaker 3: so I love them and minus one forty five Anthony

1407
01:05:14,480 --> 01:05:15,280
Speaker 3: bring home.

1408
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:17,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, Arbi Leipsig plus one oh five on the money

1409
01:05:17,960 --> 01:05:20,400
Speaker 4: line project them to be minus money favorites.

1410
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 2: Here.

1411
01:05:20,760 --> 01:05:22,760
Speaker 4: You're getting a little bit of extra value because they

1412
01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:25,200
Speaker 4: got thumped at the weekend by Hoffenheim, lost two nail

1413
01:05:25,240 --> 01:05:25,640
Speaker 4: on the road.

1414
01:05:25,920 --> 01:05:26,800
Speaker 6: That shifted this line.

1415
01:05:26,840 --> 01:05:28,720
Speaker 4: They were minus one ten other plus one oh five.

1416
01:05:28,800 --> 01:05:31,040
Speaker 4: I think that's a bit of an overreaction. We look

1417
01:05:31,040 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 4: at Leipzig. They lost to Bruges. The first time these

1418
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:38,040
Speaker 4: two teams met in Leipzig. Leipzig was playing much worse

1419
01:05:38,080 --> 01:05:40,680
Speaker 4: than they were, less organized defensively, they were not quite firing.

1420
01:05:40,840 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 6: But the emergence of Christopher and Kunku, the emergence.

1421
01:05:43,800 --> 01:05:48,200
Speaker 4: Of Slavushai as well, makes them a better attacking team,

1422
01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:52,280
Speaker 4: one that can overwhelm club Brush here. And I think

1423
01:05:52,720 --> 01:05:54,960
Speaker 4: given that they're still playing for Europa League spot, there's

1424
01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:57,040
Speaker 4: still quite a bit on the line here. Marsh will

1425
01:05:57,040 --> 01:05:59,080
Speaker 4: want to keep them in Europe to help secure his job.

1426
01:05:59,520 --> 01:06:01,800
Speaker 4: Leipzig should not be plus money here. They're a much

1427
01:06:01,800 --> 01:06:04,920
Speaker 4: better team and that's why I like them to win

1428
01:06:04,960 --> 01:06:07,800
Speaker 4: this game, take all three points and potentially secure their

1429
01:06:07,840 --> 01:06:11,120
Speaker 4: spot in Europa League for the remainder of the season.

1430
01:06:11,480 --> 01:06:14,480
Speaker 5: All right, that'll do it for another edition of Wonder Goal.

1431
01:06:14,960 --> 01:06:17,920
Speaker 2: We will be back on Thursday for our Premier League episode.

1432
01:06:18,240 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 2: Until then, please review and rate us on Apple Podcasts,

1433
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:24,200
Speaker 2: and if you do that, leave your Twitter handle in

1434
01:06:24,640 --> 01:06:27,280
Speaker 2: the review and you'll automatically be entered into a contest

1435
01:06:27,320 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 2: to win a soccer jersey of your choice. That contest

1436
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:31,880
Speaker 2: will rap at the end of this month. So for

1437
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:34,600
Speaker 2: BJ Cunninghand, for Anthony the Bundo, I'm Michaelie Buff.

1438
01:06:34,600 --> 01:06:35,440
Speaker 5: It's always a pleasure

1439
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:44,120
Speaker 3: To talk to you guys.