1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:26,964 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our podcast about making 2 00:00:27,044 --> 00:00:29,684 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova. 3 00:00:29,404 --> 00:00:33,204 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today we're talking about somebody named 4 00:00:33,244 --> 00:00:36,724 Speaker 2: Anna Delvi, who I am apparently supposed to have heard of. 5 00:00:38,004 --> 00:00:41,644 Speaker 1: Anna as she likes to be known, delve as I 6 00:00:41,724 --> 00:00:46,764 Speaker 1: will be calling her Anna Sorokan a con artist, convicted 7 00:00:47,004 --> 00:00:50,444 Speaker 1: con artist who has found her way to dancing with 8 00:00:50,604 --> 00:00:51,164 Speaker 1: the stars. 9 00:00:51,364 --> 00:00:54,524 Speaker 2: This week and after we talk about this kinn artist 10 00:00:54,564 --> 00:00:56,284 Speaker 2: that I've never heard of, will talk about a different 11 00:00:56,324 --> 00:00:58,044 Speaker 2: type of con politics. 12 00:00:58,284 --> 00:01:00,844 Speaker 1: All right, let's do it. I'm excited to get started. 13 00:01:05,484 --> 00:01:10,004 Speaker 1: So so first up, Nate, are you really were you 14 00:01:10,164 --> 00:01:12,404 Speaker 1: just like hamming it up a tiny bit for the 15 00:01:12,444 --> 00:01:15,884 Speaker 1: podcast or do you really not know who Anna Delvy is. 16 00:01:16,524 --> 00:01:19,564 Speaker 2: I'm a man of a medium number of interests. Right. 17 00:01:19,684 --> 00:01:22,924 Speaker 2: I know about poker. I know about several of the 18 00:01:22,924 --> 00:01:26,444 Speaker 2: sports quite well. Right. I know about restaurants. I know 19 00:01:26,444 --> 00:01:28,724 Speaker 2: about Curb your enthusiasm. I know a little bit about 20 00:01:28,884 --> 00:01:31,284 Speaker 2: mid century modern architecture. I do not know who the 21 00:01:31,324 --> 00:01:33,444 Speaker 2: fuck this person that was a curveball. 22 00:01:33,524 --> 00:01:35,564 Speaker 1: I love that. I love that you just kind of 23 00:01:35,844 --> 00:01:40,044 Speaker 1: threw in mid century modern architecture amazing. All right, So 24 00:01:40,764 --> 00:01:46,924 Speaker 1: let's let's give a little primer on Anna, and I 25 00:01:46,964 --> 00:01:49,284 Speaker 1: won't go I'm assuming that most of our listeners do 26 00:01:49,404 --> 00:01:51,484 Speaker 1: know who she is, but I'll give I'll give you 27 00:01:51,524 --> 00:01:54,364 Speaker 1: the rundown. So, first of all, her name is not 28 00:01:54,604 --> 00:01:58,284 Speaker 1: Anna Delviy, and I'm actually really really pissed that in 29 00:01:58,364 --> 00:02:01,924 Speaker 1: absolutely every single media source she's called Anna Delvy, which 30 00:02:02,004 --> 00:02:05,684 Speaker 1: is her con artist name. Her actual name is Anna 31 00:02:05,844 --> 00:02:10,484 Speaker 1: Sorokan bites from Moscow, not an era from Germany the 32 00:02:10,524 --> 00:02:14,204 Speaker 1: way that she has always portrayed herself to be. But 33 00:02:14,324 --> 00:02:17,204 Speaker 1: she is someone who is a grifter who ended up 34 00:02:17,244 --> 00:02:21,884 Speaker 1: scanming New York High society out of hundreds of thousands 35 00:02:21,924 --> 00:02:26,004 Speaker 1: of dollars, including fraudulent bank loans, and all of these 36 00:02:26,044 --> 00:02:29,644 Speaker 1: things predicated on her being an heiress to this fortune. 37 00:02:29,804 --> 00:02:32,364 Speaker 1: She said that she was going to start this cultural 38 00:02:32,844 --> 00:02:35,564 Speaker 1: arts club that was going to be nate you know 39 00:02:35,604 --> 00:02:37,244 Speaker 1: a little bit about art. So she was going to 40 00:02:37,284 --> 00:02:40,284 Speaker 1: be exhibiting people like Cindy Sherman. Right, So threw she 41 00:02:40,364 --> 00:02:42,124 Speaker 1: threw the big guns at it. She said, you know, 42 00:02:42,404 --> 00:02:44,644 Speaker 1: I've got all this money and we're gonna we're gonna 43 00:02:44,644 --> 00:02:46,604 Speaker 1: have a private member's only club. We're going to have 44 00:02:46,644 --> 00:02:49,524 Speaker 1: Cindy Sherman exhibits. I mean, we're going to have the 45 00:02:49,564 --> 00:02:52,524 Speaker 1: best restaurant in New York. This is going to be amazing. 46 00:02:52,964 --> 00:02:55,844 Speaker 1: She weaseled her way into New York society by very 47 00:02:55,964 --> 00:03:01,484 Speaker 1: very clever use of Instagram, social media, connecting herself to 48 00:03:01,524 --> 00:03:08,324 Speaker 1: the highest kind of social cachet people. And she befriended 49 00:03:08,564 --> 00:03:12,804 Speaker 1: this woman, Rachel Williams, who at that point was a 50 00:03:12,844 --> 00:03:15,684 Speaker 1: photo editor. I believe I might be getting her title 51 00:03:15,684 --> 00:03:18,644 Speaker 1: wrong at Vanity Fair, but she was a photographer, you know, 52 00:03:18,724 --> 00:03:22,324 Speaker 1: photo editor person there. And Rachel was the one who 53 00:03:22,404 --> 00:03:26,404 Speaker 1: ended up bringing her down because she went on a 54 00:03:26,444 --> 00:03:30,004 Speaker 1: trip with her to Morocco that Anna said was part 55 00:03:30,124 --> 00:03:33,844 Speaker 1: of kind of this whole thing that she was doing 56 00:03:34,524 --> 00:03:37,524 Speaker 1: to raise money for the foundation, and Rachel ended up 57 00:03:37,524 --> 00:03:41,124 Speaker 1: getting saddled with the bill sixty two thousand dollars, which 58 00:03:41,204 --> 00:03:45,244 Speaker 1: was more than her annual salary, and she was not 59 00:03:45,364 --> 00:03:47,884 Speaker 1: able to get this money back from Anna. She got pissed. 60 00:03:47,884 --> 00:03:49,844 Speaker 1: She went to the police, and then Anna's house of 61 00:03:49,884 --> 00:03:54,244 Speaker 1: cards unraveled. She was convicted. She served time. When she 62 00:03:54,324 --> 00:03:59,484 Speaker 1: was released from Rikers, she ended up overstaying her visa 63 00:04:00,164 --> 00:04:04,644 Speaker 1: was put back into jail and is now out again 64 00:04:05,124 --> 00:04:08,604 Speaker 1: and back in the news because last week Dancing with 65 00:04:08,684 --> 00:04:12,844 Speaker 1: the Stars to make the lovely decision of having Anna 66 00:04:13,124 --> 00:04:15,644 Speaker 1: Sorokan on their show. 67 00:04:17,004 --> 00:04:20,324 Speaker 2: I did that's in preparation the performance. I thought that 68 00:04:20,404 --> 00:04:21,084 Speaker 2: was mediocre. 69 00:04:21,164 --> 00:04:23,724 Speaker 1: But again I'm not very mediocre. It was very mediocre. 70 00:04:23,724 --> 00:04:26,444 Speaker 2: I inspired. You had your moment in the fifteen minutes 71 00:04:26,444 --> 00:04:29,684 Speaker 2: of fame, your fourteenth out of fifteenth minute. Use it better? 72 00:04:29,764 --> 00:04:33,044 Speaker 2: Anna psoric and what's her name? And by the way, 73 00:04:33,044 --> 00:04:37,364 Speaker 2: all about this decision by Dancing with the Stars, Yeah, 74 00:04:37,444 --> 00:04:40,124 Speaker 2: how do I buy my employer ABC News? 75 00:04:41,044 --> 00:04:43,884 Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's horrific. I do not think 76 00:04:43,964 --> 00:04:46,804 Speaker 1: that con artists deserve to be given that sort of 77 00:04:46,804 --> 00:04:50,284 Speaker 1: a platform. People are like, oh, she deserves a second chance. 78 00:04:50,364 --> 00:04:56,444 Speaker 1: Absolutely fucking not. I have dealt with so many con 79 00:04:56,524 --> 00:05:01,644 Speaker 1: artists over the years, and they do not go straight. 80 00:05:02,164 --> 00:05:06,044 Speaker 1: She has expressed zero remorse, In fact, the opposite. She said, 81 00:05:06,524 --> 00:05:10,084 Speaker 1: I am not sorry for anything I've done. She feels 82 00:05:10,124 --> 00:05:13,444 Speaker 1: like she completely deserves it. She has profited off of 83 00:05:13,484 --> 00:05:17,204 Speaker 1: her story, and I understand that networks are out there 84 00:05:17,244 --> 00:05:19,964 Speaker 1: to make profit and to make some money, but like, 85 00:05:20,324 --> 00:05:25,804 Speaker 1: give me a break. Moscow skeazy con artists, like there 86 00:05:25,844 --> 00:05:29,444 Speaker 1: are better people to give your platform too. And I 87 00:05:29,564 --> 00:05:32,564 Speaker 1: just I'm begging everyone listening, and I'm begging the media 88 00:05:32,644 --> 00:05:36,244 Speaker 1: to stop calling her Anna Delvy. This is not respect 89 00:05:36,364 --> 00:05:38,724 Speaker 1: for something that you know, Oh, this is a name 90 00:05:38,724 --> 00:05:41,364 Speaker 1: that she wants to be called by. No, absolutely not. 91 00:05:41,404 --> 00:05:46,284 Speaker 1: It's like calling Christian your high rights are Clark Rockefeller? Right? 92 00:05:46,564 --> 00:05:49,404 Speaker 1: The dude's a murderer. He just happened to want to 93 00:05:49,404 --> 00:05:53,084 Speaker 1: be known as Clark Rockefeller. Seriously are we doing that? 94 00:05:53,564 --> 00:05:56,964 Speaker 1: Are we calling them by their chosen con name under 95 00:05:57,004 --> 00:06:02,004 Speaker 1: which they defrauded people and like completely assumed a new 96 00:06:02,044 --> 00:06:04,924 Speaker 1: identity because they fucking felt like it. I have zero 97 00:06:05,044 --> 00:06:08,924 Speaker 1: sympathy for her. I have zero thoughts that she's ever 98 00:06:08,964 --> 00:06:11,804 Speaker 1: going to go straight. You know, do we think Billy 99 00:06:11,884 --> 00:06:14,884 Speaker 1: McFarlane is going to have a really nice new venture 100 00:06:15,004 --> 00:06:16,244 Speaker 1: that we should all invest in? 101 00:06:17,044 --> 00:06:21,524 Speaker 2: Look? What what would you say? The cultural role of 102 00:06:21,604 --> 00:06:23,444 Speaker 2: Dancing with the Stars is because they've had an on 103 00:06:23,524 --> 00:06:28,364 Speaker 2: other people who have had, you know, various controversy or scandal's. 104 00:06:28,484 --> 00:06:32,684 Speaker 2: Former White House Press Security Sean Spicer was a guesst. 105 00:06:33,444 --> 00:06:37,804 Speaker 2: Ryan Lochte had a very minor scandal. We're involving some 106 00:06:37,844 --> 00:06:42,204 Speaker 2: gas station and was on the show. Paula Dean is 107 00:06:42,204 --> 00:06:46,604 Speaker 2: a Southern celebrity chef who maybe use some some racial 108 00:06:46,644 --> 00:06:50,004 Speaker 2: woods that you wouldn't want to use so much, and 109 00:06:50,084 --> 00:06:54,124 Speaker 2: she was on the show. So what why does ABC 110 00:06:54,284 --> 00:06:57,804 Speaker 2: News feel the need to rehabilitate these people who are 111 00:06:57,844 --> 00:07:02,364 Speaker 2: like not even like that interesting or note. 112 00:07:01,964 --> 00:07:08,084 Speaker 1: People have been fascinated with con artists, and oftentimes especially 113 00:07:08,124 --> 00:07:13,684 Speaker 1: con artists like Anna Soroken, who are people who kind 114 00:07:13,684 --> 00:07:16,604 Speaker 1: of go for the upper echelons of society, right like 115 00:07:16,804 --> 00:07:20,724 Speaker 1: the high society, glamour crime like Clark Rockefeller by the way, 116 00:07:20,764 --> 00:07:28,964 Speaker 1: who I who I mentioned Christian. They are just media 117 00:07:29,284 --> 00:07:34,804 Speaker 1: fodder because first of all, like they you know, they're charismatic, 118 00:07:34,844 --> 00:07:40,924 Speaker 1: they're appealing all this stuff, but also they end up 119 00:07:42,884 --> 00:07:46,804 Speaker 1: conning people who people have they victim blame them. They 120 00:07:46,804 --> 00:07:48,484 Speaker 1: have less sympathy for should. 121 00:07:48,404 --> 00:07:51,484 Speaker 2: Get you know, shouldn't you have something where like at 122 00:07:51,484 --> 00:07:54,844 Speaker 2: any given time, like one man and one woman, con 123 00:07:55,004 --> 00:07:57,364 Speaker 2: artists are permitted to just continue being con artist because 124 00:07:57,364 --> 00:08:01,124 Speaker 2: they're so good at it. I want to create some incentive. 125 00:08:01,404 --> 00:08:03,964 Speaker 1: I mean that has happened though, like you don't actually 126 00:08:04,084 --> 00:08:07,924 Speaker 1: have to create that incentive So in The Confidence Game, 127 00:08:08,044 --> 00:08:12,364 Speaker 1: which was the book I wrote about artists, Ferdinand Waldo Damara, 128 00:08:12,444 --> 00:08:15,884 Speaker 1: who's known as the Great Impostor, who had ended up 129 00:08:15,924 --> 00:08:19,924 Speaker 1: having this biography written about him, The Great Impostor, and 130 00:08:19,964 --> 00:08:23,244 Speaker 1: then a movie made where Tony Curtis starred as him. 131 00:08:24,524 --> 00:08:30,964 Speaker 1: He became ridiculously recognizable because he's like over you know, 132 00:08:31,484 --> 00:08:33,844 Speaker 1: six foot I don't remember six foot four or something 133 00:08:33,884 --> 00:08:38,204 Speaker 1: like that, like very massive, like huge guy, just someone 134 00:08:38,284 --> 00:08:40,924 Speaker 1: who you would instantly recognize. He doesn't have. You know, 135 00:08:40,964 --> 00:08:43,804 Speaker 1: there are some faces that like look like every man. 136 00:08:43,844 --> 00:08:46,044 Speaker 1: He does not look like every man. And he was 137 00:08:46,124 --> 00:08:49,964 Speaker 1: on every single TV outlet, you know, Johnny Carson, he 138 00:08:50,044 --> 00:08:53,564 Speaker 1: went on Groucho Marxist show like he was. He was 139 00:08:53,604 --> 00:08:58,324 Speaker 1: on everything, and so you would think that, you know, 140 00:08:58,404 --> 00:09:01,004 Speaker 1: he would need some sort of program to be allowed 141 00:09:01,004 --> 00:09:03,644 Speaker 1: to con again because everyone would know he's a con artist. 142 00:09:03,924 --> 00:09:07,084 Speaker 1: Turns out he didn't need anything like that, because he 143 00:09:07,284 --> 00:09:11,164 Speaker 1: ended up running and continuing to con long after that. 144 00:09:11,444 --> 00:09:14,564 Speaker 1: So he had every opportunity to go straight. He was 145 00:09:14,604 --> 00:09:17,324 Speaker 1: given all of this money, all of this stuff, but 146 00:09:17,444 --> 00:09:20,004 Speaker 1: he just loved conning too much. So even after all 147 00:09:20,044 --> 00:09:22,964 Speaker 1: this media attention, he just switched his con, and so 148 00:09:23,084 --> 00:09:26,884 Speaker 1: he ended up conning multiple people for multiple decades after 149 00:09:26,924 --> 00:09:29,644 Speaker 1: this saying and the con was I've gone straight. You know, 150 00:09:29,684 --> 00:09:33,204 Speaker 1: I'm repentant, like you're the one person who understands me. 151 00:09:33,844 --> 00:09:36,284 Speaker 1: Let's you know, I really want to like prove that 152 00:09:36,324 --> 00:09:39,244 Speaker 1: I'm a good reformed person now. And then he would 153 00:09:39,324 --> 00:09:41,404 Speaker 1: like take them for all they were worth. And he 154 00:09:41,484 --> 00:09:43,204 Speaker 1: was so good at it that he kept doing it 155 00:09:43,244 --> 00:09:45,844 Speaker 1: over and over and over. So con artists do not 156 00:09:46,044 --> 00:09:48,924 Speaker 1: need any help. And the best con artists, nay, you 157 00:09:48,964 --> 00:09:50,804 Speaker 1: and I have no idea who the fuck they are 158 00:09:51,084 --> 00:09:54,724 Speaker 1: because unlike Anna, they have not been caught. There are 159 00:09:54,764 --> 00:09:58,444 Speaker 1: probably impostors out there in the world right now. I 160 00:09:58,684 --> 00:10:00,844 Speaker 1: you know, we talked briefly, I think on the show 161 00:10:00,924 --> 00:10:04,124 Speaker 1: about therahos at some point, you know, there are more 162 00:10:04,204 --> 00:10:08,524 Speaker 1: Elizabeth holmes is out there. There are more theraphnoses out 163 00:10:08,564 --> 00:10:10,684 Speaker 1: there that are getting the millions of dollars from venture 164 00:10:10,764 --> 00:10:13,764 Speaker 1: capital in Silicon Valley. Like we don't. We don't have 165 00:10:13,804 --> 00:10:17,004 Speaker 1: a problem with con artists not getting a second shot 166 00:10:17,044 --> 00:10:20,404 Speaker 1: at the con. Even Billy McFarland, who who I just mentioned, 167 00:10:20,964 --> 00:10:23,924 Speaker 1: you know, he tried Fire Festival too, and all sorts 168 00:10:23,924 --> 00:10:28,884 Speaker 1: of other lovely things, so you know, they they you 169 00:10:28,964 --> 00:10:29,804 Speaker 1: can't get them down. 170 00:10:30,764 --> 00:10:33,924 Speaker 2: I'm reading a little bit about PT. Barnum. Actually in 171 00:10:33,924 --> 00:10:36,084 Speaker 2: this book, we read the book The forty eight Laws 172 00:10:36,084 --> 00:10:40,324 Speaker 2: of Power I have. Yes, it's a very interesting book. 173 00:10:40,484 --> 00:10:42,804 Speaker 2: Maybe we'll have a little mini segment on it one day. 174 00:10:43,244 --> 00:10:47,284 Speaker 2: It's kind of a slightly evil, very Machabellian book. Two. Yes, 175 00:10:47,884 --> 00:10:50,844 Speaker 2: but it's talking about some of the ambiguities of someone 176 00:10:50,924 --> 00:10:54,604 Speaker 2: like P. T. Barnum, who you know, would reject the 177 00:10:54,644 --> 00:10:56,524 Speaker 2: label of being a con artist. I hadn't read that 178 00:10:56,604 --> 00:10:58,324 Speaker 2: much about him, but I've actually kind of, you know, 179 00:10:58,364 --> 00:11:01,164 Speaker 2: became a member of the House of Representatives or something 180 00:11:01,164 --> 00:11:06,644 Speaker 2: in Connecticut and was kind of rehabilitated into somewhat polite society, 181 00:11:06,684 --> 00:11:09,484 Speaker 2: I guess. But yeah, there it is a spectrum, I guess, right, 182 00:11:09,604 --> 00:11:10,644 Speaker 2: Or is that not correct? 183 00:11:10,924 --> 00:11:12,804 Speaker 1: No? I mean I think there's a spectrum. But I 184 00:11:12,804 --> 00:11:15,084 Speaker 1: don't think P. T. Barnam is a con artist, right 185 00:11:15,204 --> 00:11:18,804 Speaker 1: like he I think that there's a very like he 186 00:11:19,284 --> 00:11:23,684 Speaker 1: sold deception, right he's a circus owner who like this 187 00:11:23,924 --> 00:11:27,124 Speaker 1: was everyone knew exactly what he was doing. I think 188 00:11:27,164 --> 00:11:30,804 Speaker 1: that there's you know, there are people who act in 189 00:11:30,804 --> 00:11:33,164 Speaker 1: good faith and in bad faith, but not all bad 190 00:11:33,164 --> 00:11:38,324 Speaker 1: faith actors are con artists. And I think that there 191 00:11:39,284 --> 00:11:41,884 Speaker 1: is a pretty it is a spectrum, but there's a 192 00:11:42,084 --> 00:11:47,204 Speaker 1: pretty clear demarcation point between con artist and not, which 193 00:11:47,244 --> 00:11:51,884 Speaker 1: is your intention to take advantage of people for your 194 00:11:51,884 --> 00:11:58,324 Speaker 1: own personal benefit without their awareness. Obviously you mentioned machiavelian 195 00:11:58,604 --> 00:12:01,364 Speaker 1: so it is incredibly Machupelian. And in fact, you know 196 00:12:01,404 --> 00:12:04,404 Speaker 1: out of the dark triad of traits that con artists 197 00:12:04,444 --> 00:12:10,404 Speaker 1: often have, So that's psychopathy, narcissism, and machubelianism. Psychopathy is 198 00:12:10,444 --> 00:12:14,124 Speaker 1: the least common just because it's the least common in society. 199 00:12:14,564 --> 00:12:18,684 Speaker 1: Narcissism is kind of this not just this sense of 200 00:12:19,084 --> 00:12:23,764 Speaker 1: a grandized self, but also this sense of I deserve right, 201 00:12:23,844 --> 00:12:25,684 Speaker 1: So like I deserve all of this, so I'm not 202 00:12:25,724 --> 00:12:28,484 Speaker 1: doing anything wrong, like I'm just taking what is mine, 203 00:12:28,524 --> 00:12:30,844 Speaker 1: what I deserve. And then there's the one that con 204 00:12:30,924 --> 00:12:33,404 Speaker 1: artists most commonly have. In fact, I would argue that 205 00:12:33,484 --> 00:12:37,004 Speaker 1: you cannot be a successful con artist without this, and 206 00:12:37,044 --> 00:12:42,164 Speaker 1: that's machiavellianism, which is the ability to get people to 207 00:12:42,244 --> 00:12:44,564 Speaker 1: do what you want them to do, but they think 208 00:12:44,604 --> 00:12:46,644 Speaker 1: it's their own idea, right, So you're very good at 209 00:12:46,724 --> 00:12:50,044 Speaker 1: kind of planting the seeds in their mind that they think, oh, 210 00:12:50,164 --> 00:12:52,204 Speaker 1: this is what I should do, but really it's coming 211 00:12:52,244 --> 00:12:54,804 Speaker 1: from you. So you manipulate them. But you're not seen 212 00:12:55,044 --> 00:12:59,404 Speaker 1: as manipulative. You're seen as charismatic, which is Machiavelli's whole thing. 213 00:12:59,924 --> 00:13:04,924 Speaker 1: And so that intent to knowingly deceive, to take advantage 214 00:13:04,924 --> 00:13:07,524 Speaker 1: of other people's confidence in you, is what makes a 215 00:13:07,564 --> 00:13:08,084 Speaker 1: con artist. 216 00:13:08,204 --> 00:13:10,164 Speaker 2: What about a politician? 217 00:13:10,604 --> 00:13:14,644 Speaker 1: So it depends. So within every single profession you'll find 218 00:13:14,684 --> 00:13:18,164 Speaker 1: con artists. But to say that all politicians are con 219 00:13:18,204 --> 00:13:21,004 Speaker 1: artists is to completely dilute the term so that it's meaningless. 220 00:13:21,404 --> 00:13:25,164 Speaker 1: So if you're a politician who does normal politician things, 221 00:13:25,204 --> 00:13:30,004 Speaker 1: which is you know, you might exaggerate, right, like you 222 00:13:30,084 --> 00:13:33,044 Speaker 1: know that like you probably won't be able to deliver 223 00:13:33,124 --> 00:13:35,684 Speaker 1: on all these promises. You kind of give the strongest 224 00:13:35,764 --> 00:13:39,004 Speaker 1: case argument for all of them. But you truly believe 225 00:13:39,044 --> 00:13:41,324 Speaker 1: that you're going to make the world a better place, Right, 226 00:13:41,324 --> 00:13:43,324 Speaker 1: that's why you got into politics. Your heart's in the 227 00:13:43,364 --> 00:13:46,884 Speaker 1: right place. Like you're not trying to completely deceive someone, 228 00:13:47,124 --> 00:13:51,204 Speaker 1: and you're not saying something like, oh, like I promise 229 00:13:51,484 --> 00:13:56,004 Speaker 1: to you know, to protect abortion at all costs, and 230 00:13:56,084 --> 00:14:00,404 Speaker 1: then secretly you're anti abortion and trying to stack the 231 00:14:00,444 --> 00:14:03,444 Speaker 1: court to reverse Ruby Wade, you're not a con artist 232 00:14:03,484 --> 00:14:06,284 Speaker 1: because you actually kind of you're trying to make the 233 00:14:06,284 --> 00:14:08,484 Speaker 1: world a better place. You're believe that you're doing it, 234 00:14:08,764 --> 00:14:11,044 Speaker 1: you know, to the best of your ability. You're kind 235 00:14:11,044 --> 00:14:14,364 Speaker 1: of advancing that message. Now if you actually, like, if 236 00:14:14,364 --> 00:14:16,884 Speaker 1: there's a mismatch between your beliefs and what you're doing, 237 00:14:16,924 --> 00:14:20,044 Speaker 1: if you're doing it in a cynical way, if you're misleading, 238 00:14:20,204 --> 00:14:23,564 Speaker 1: knowingly misleading, saying one thing while you know you're gonna 239 00:14:23,724 --> 00:14:26,444 Speaker 1: do another, or you don't fucking care because you don't 240 00:14:26,484 --> 00:14:28,964 Speaker 1: care if abortion is protected or not protected as long 241 00:14:29,004 --> 00:14:31,804 Speaker 1: as you remain in power. Right, you're motivated by control. 242 00:14:31,884 --> 00:14:34,364 Speaker 1: You're motivated by power, which, by the way, is the 243 00:14:34,444 --> 00:14:37,884 Speaker 1: single biggest motivation of all con artists. It's not money, 244 00:14:38,164 --> 00:14:42,604 Speaker 1: it's control, it's power. It's affecting other people and influencing 245 00:14:42,644 --> 00:14:45,524 Speaker 1: other people. If you're that, then you're a politician who 246 00:14:45,564 --> 00:14:47,764 Speaker 1: also happens to be a con artist. And they are 247 00:14:47,764 --> 00:14:51,444 Speaker 1: both right, and I think that there is a big difference, 248 00:14:51,684 --> 00:14:53,484 Speaker 1: and you have a spectrum by the way of you know, 249 00:14:53,524 --> 00:14:56,644 Speaker 1: true believer politicians, right, Like You've got the Bernie Sanderses 250 00:14:56,684 --> 00:15:00,484 Speaker 1: of the world, who I think is probably pretty far 251 00:15:01,004 --> 00:15:02,764 Speaker 1: on the true believer spectrum. And then you have the 252 00:15:02,804 --> 00:15:05,564 Speaker 1: people who are you know, much more pragmatic, who are 253 00:15:06,084 --> 00:15:08,684 Speaker 1: who do what needs to be done, who kind of 254 00:15:10,204 --> 00:15:12,844 Speaker 1: get down and dirty, but they still kind of believe 255 00:15:12,884 --> 00:15:14,964 Speaker 1: what you want. On the other side, I'm just gonna 256 00:15:15,244 --> 00:15:17,444 Speaker 1: say his name, that you've got the Donald Trump who've 257 00:15:17,444 --> 00:15:20,084 Speaker 1: been convicted of fraud. Like I used to have to 258 00:15:20,124 --> 00:15:22,004 Speaker 1: say that he was an alleged con artist, I don't 259 00:15:22,044 --> 00:15:25,204 Speaker 1: have to say alleged anymore. Like shit's been proven in court. 260 00:15:25,604 --> 00:15:26,524 Speaker 1: He is an artist. 261 00:15:26,604 --> 00:15:30,324 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't know they sure the election case. 262 00:15:31,764 --> 00:15:33,524 Speaker 1: I'm not even talking about the I'm not even talking 263 00:15:33,564 --> 00:15:35,884 Speaker 1: about the election case. I'm talking about real estate fraud. 264 00:15:36,484 --> 00:15:39,724 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's all you need. All you need is someone 265 00:15:40,364 --> 00:15:43,604 Speaker 2: to what extent. Do people feel like they're in on 266 00:15:43,604 --> 00:15:45,084 Speaker 2: the joke with the con artists? 267 00:15:46,164 --> 00:15:49,124 Speaker 1: They're not, so I think that well. 268 00:15:48,924 --> 00:15:51,484 Speaker 2: With Trump though, you're pushing with Trump. I think people 269 00:15:51,484 --> 00:15:54,084 Speaker 2: feel like he's on my side and you take him. 270 00:15:54,444 --> 00:15:58,244 Speaker 1: No. No, that's the thing though, But they don't think 271 00:15:58,244 --> 00:16:00,924 Speaker 1: they're in on the joke like they actually believe right, 272 00:16:01,044 --> 00:16:04,044 Speaker 1: Like they don't understand that they're victims of con artists. 273 00:16:04,564 --> 00:16:07,724 Speaker 1: I think that people who are Trump supporters are victims 274 00:16:07,724 --> 00:16:09,804 Speaker 1: of a con artist, and they just really you don't 275 00:16:09,804 --> 00:16:13,444 Speaker 1: see that. They see Trump as on their side, they 276 00:16:13,484 --> 00:16:15,644 Speaker 1: see him as a true believer, and so they're willing 277 00:16:15,684 --> 00:16:19,604 Speaker 1: to discount Red Flag's evidence. It doesn't matter. And this 278 00:16:19,724 --> 00:16:22,524 Speaker 1: happens over and over and over. Let's put Trump aside 279 00:16:22,604 --> 00:16:25,164 Speaker 1: for a second and just look at a pattern that 280 00:16:25,244 --> 00:16:30,844 Speaker 1: happens within con artists throughout history, which is that when 281 00:16:30,924 --> 00:16:32,964 Speaker 1: you have and this is rare, by the way, because 282 00:16:33,084 --> 00:16:36,324 Speaker 1: so many con artists can kind of skirt the laws 283 00:16:36,404 --> 00:16:39,084 Speaker 1: get away with it, but in those cases when there's 284 00:16:39,244 --> 00:16:44,164 Speaker 1: incontrovertible evidence, when they're actually tried in court and proven guilty, 285 00:16:44,604 --> 00:16:47,764 Speaker 1: you often have the case where their biggest victims don't 286 00:16:47,804 --> 00:16:50,924 Speaker 1: believe it and think it's a big government conspiracy, legal 287 00:16:50,964 --> 00:16:55,004 Speaker 1: conspiracy whatnot against them, and it's just mind boggling. And 288 00:16:55,044 --> 00:16:57,604 Speaker 1: then you talk to them. I've talked to hundreds of 289 00:16:57,644 --> 00:17:01,084 Speaker 1: victims of con artists. I can give them all the receipts, right, 290 00:17:01,124 --> 00:17:03,364 Speaker 1: I can show them everything. I can be like, hey, 291 00:17:03,404 --> 00:17:07,484 Speaker 1: this pastor who you think is the second coming of 292 00:17:07,524 --> 00:17:11,604 Speaker 1: the Lord, Like the best thing that has ever happened 293 00:17:11,604 --> 00:17:14,164 Speaker 1: to your community, the money that you donated for a 294 00:17:14,204 --> 00:17:17,204 Speaker 1: new church he spent gambling away in Las Vegas. This 295 00:17:17,244 --> 00:17:20,324 Speaker 1: is not a hypothetical, This actually happened. And the person 296 00:17:20,364 --> 00:17:22,924 Speaker 1: will be like, no, I you're you know this is 297 00:17:22,964 --> 00:17:25,244 Speaker 1: a fake receipt. This is not true. He didn't take 298 00:17:25,244 --> 00:17:28,004 Speaker 1: this flight. He's not a gambler, Like, he doesn't believe 299 00:17:28,004 --> 00:17:30,564 Speaker 1: in it. And even if he did, and then it 300 00:17:30,604 --> 00:17:33,764 Speaker 1: was for a reason, and he like the Good Lord 301 00:17:33,844 --> 00:17:35,564 Speaker 1: told him that he was going to make more money 302 00:17:35,604 --> 00:17:40,364 Speaker 1: for our church. Right, so they can just run. They 303 00:17:40,444 --> 00:17:44,244 Speaker 1: just do all these mental jumping jacks. The cognitive dissonance 304 00:17:44,364 --> 00:17:47,364 Speaker 1: is so large that the dissonance reduction, which is what 305 00:17:47,404 --> 00:17:50,484 Speaker 1: we do to kind of bring down that cognitive dissonance 306 00:17:50,484 --> 00:17:54,524 Speaker 1: and bring our internal thoughts about what reality should be 307 00:17:54,604 --> 00:17:57,244 Speaker 1: like in line with what we're seeing, is just so 308 00:17:57,484 --> 00:18:01,444 Speaker 1: huge that basically these people are beyond reach. This is 309 00:18:01,484 --> 00:18:03,964 Speaker 1: why the single best victim of a con artist is 310 00:18:04,004 --> 00:18:07,004 Speaker 1: someone who's been conned before, because they are so good 311 00:18:07,004 --> 00:18:10,484 Speaker 1: at rationalizing away the fact that they been conned that 312 00:18:10,484 --> 00:18:14,164 Speaker 1: they're very easy to take advantage of again, because that's 313 00:18:14,244 --> 00:18:16,764 Speaker 1: easier to them than admitting that they've been the victim 314 00:18:16,804 --> 00:18:17,964 Speaker 1: of this horrible long. 315 00:18:17,804 --> 00:18:21,364 Speaker 2: Con Marie, you want to talk some politics. 316 00:18:22,804 --> 00:18:27,484 Speaker 1: I think we started talking politics without without meaning to Nate. 317 00:18:27,604 --> 00:18:31,124 Speaker 1: So yes, let's take a break from Anna Sarokan, and 318 00:18:31,364 --> 00:18:35,564 Speaker 1: after the break we will talk about Donald Trump, the 319 00:18:35,604 --> 00:18:40,444 Speaker 1: con artist and Kamala Harris in a non con artist 320 00:18:40,684 --> 00:18:43,204 Speaker 1: setting or maybe a con artist setting, who knows. 321 00:18:52,764 --> 00:18:56,444 Speaker 2: Let me just push. I think Trump's a tricky case, right, 322 00:18:56,484 --> 00:18:59,764 Speaker 2: I mean, because, for one thing, the biggest Karne's trying 323 00:18:59,804 --> 00:19:03,724 Speaker 2: to pull off is a stolen election claims right. On 324 00:19:03,764 --> 00:19:09,164 Speaker 2: the other hand, isn't he just promising to deliver cultural 325 00:19:09,204 --> 00:19:16,004 Speaker 2: bash to progressive elites and lower taxes for wealthy business owners. 326 00:19:17,364 --> 00:19:20,884 Speaker 2: I think that if we actually he actually delivered those things, I. 327 00:19:20,844 --> 00:19:22,844 Speaker 1: Don't think so. And I think if we parse his 328 00:19:22,924 --> 00:19:25,844 Speaker 1: different messages to different groups of people, we will see 329 00:19:25,884 --> 00:19:28,364 Speaker 1: that he has said and I actually believe that there 330 00:19:28,404 --> 00:19:32,124 Speaker 1: are YouTube compilations of this. He's given the absolute polar 331 00:19:32,164 --> 00:19:35,724 Speaker 1: opposite message to different groups of people, depending on who 332 00:19:35,804 --> 00:19:38,124 Speaker 1: he's trying to appeal to at the moment. So he's 333 00:19:38,164 --> 00:19:41,644 Speaker 1: been He's been both pro and anti abortion depending on 334 00:19:41,684 --> 00:19:44,324 Speaker 1: the day that you get him, even one day apart. 335 00:19:44,684 --> 00:19:46,964 Speaker 1: So like, let's just leave it at that. This is 336 00:19:47,004 --> 00:19:50,124 Speaker 1: not someone who you can trust to have a single opinion. 337 00:19:50,684 --> 00:19:56,524 Speaker 2: Politics tour event. I'll do some concern, you know, with 338 00:19:56,604 --> 00:20:00,164 Speaker 2: Ben Shapiro. I'm I'm messaging the book very differently than 339 00:20:00,204 --> 00:20:02,404 Speaker 2: when I'm at the Liberal book fair in Seattle. I'll 340 00:20:02,404 --> 00:20:03,284 Speaker 2: tell you that much. 341 00:20:03,484 --> 00:20:05,684 Speaker 1: That's fine, you can use different messaging, but do you 342 00:20:05,724 --> 00:20:09,524 Speaker 1: fundamentally change your meaning and say, actually, you know what 343 00:20:10,804 --> 00:20:14,604 Speaker 1: the river sucks and the village is where all the 344 00:20:14,644 --> 00:20:15,324 Speaker 1: smartest things are. 345 00:20:15,324 --> 00:20:20,084 Speaker 2: I mean, Kamal wild are Kamala Harris uh a very 346 00:20:20,164 --> 00:20:23,164 Speaker 2: left of center platform in twenty nineteen, was that a 347 00:20:23,204 --> 00:20:24,044 Speaker 2: co matters? 348 00:20:24,164 --> 00:20:26,844 Speaker 1: There are matters of degree and then there are complete 349 00:20:27,684 --> 00:20:31,804 Speaker 1: just saying polar opposite things one day apart. And I 350 00:20:31,804 --> 00:20:34,524 Speaker 1: think you're being a little disingenuous just to push back 351 00:20:34,564 --> 00:20:35,124 Speaker 1: a little bit. 352 00:20:35,404 --> 00:20:36,924 Speaker 2: But I think that way, I know more about what 353 00:20:36,964 --> 00:20:39,524 Speaker 2: I get in the Trump administration than a Harris administration. 354 00:20:40,044 --> 00:20:42,924 Speaker 2: It might not exactly match what Trump says, but like, but. 355 00:20:42,844 --> 00:20:46,404 Speaker 1: That's that's but that's also that's the key, right, This 356 00:20:46,564 --> 00:20:48,804 Speaker 1: is what we were going back to with con artists. 357 00:20:49,324 --> 00:20:53,764 Speaker 1: Do they believe what they're saying or are they using 358 00:20:53,804 --> 00:20:56,124 Speaker 1: it as a means to a personal end to take 359 00:20:56,164 --> 00:20:59,044 Speaker 1: advantage of other people to gain power for themselves, and 360 00:20:59,084 --> 00:21:01,724 Speaker 1: that is all they care about in the end is 361 00:21:01,844 --> 00:21:05,084 Speaker 1: power and control to give a fuck about other people 362 00:21:05,404 --> 00:21:07,484 Speaker 1: or about the world. I do not believe that is 363 00:21:07,484 --> 00:21:10,244 Speaker 1: true of all politicians. I absolutely believe that that is 364 00:21:10,244 --> 00:21:13,364 Speaker 1: true of Donald Trump. We have good evidence for it. 365 00:21:14,244 --> 00:21:18,324 Speaker 1: And with your book, yeah, sure, you're going to change messaging. 366 00:21:18,404 --> 00:21:22,604 Speaker 1: You're going to not push on certain points to certain audiences, 367 00:21:22,604 --> 00:21:25,444 Speaker 1: but you're not going to change your thesis like your book. 368 00:21:26,124 --> 00:21:28,524 Speaker 1: But Nate, let me ask you a question if I 369 00:21:29,004 --> 00:21:32,084 Speaker 1: were to, you know, when you're talking to different audiences 370 00:21:32,124 --> 00:21:35,204 Speaker 1: about what your polls say, do you manipulate your polls? 371 00:21:35,244 --> 00:21:37,844 Speaker 1: Do you take certain do you take certain do you 372 00:21:37,924 --> 00:21:42,244 Speaker 1: take certain surveys out? Do you waight them differently so 373 00:21:42,284 --> 00:21:45,284 Speaker 1: that your message changes so that you're more appealing to 374 00:21:45,324 --> 00:21:48,924 Speaker 1: your audience? And you say, Kamala is ahead, and then 375 00:21:48,964 --> 00:21:52,524 Speaker 1: two hours later, without you know, without any new polls 376 00:21:52,564 --> 00:21:54,444 Speaker 1: coming out, you say, oh, no, you know, I think 377 00:21:54,484 --> 00:21:56,284 Speaker 1: Donald Trump is going to win. Do you do that? 378 00:21:56,644 --> 00:21:57,444 Speaker 2: I do not do that. 379 00:21:57,564 --> 00:21:59,924 Speaker 1: No Donald Trump would do that. That is the difference 380 00:21:59,964 --> 00:22:02,124 Speaker 1: between a con artist and a non con artist. I 381 00:22:02,244 --> 00:22:02,924 Speaker 1: rest my case. 382 00:22:03,044 --> 00:22:06,644 Speaker 2: We are going to think. I think, out of all 383 00:22:06,724 --> 00:22:08,844 Speaker 2: the dimensions by what you can criticize Trump, and there 384 00:22:08,844 --> 00:22:11,004 Speaker 2: are many, I'm not sure that's a to mention where 385 00:22:12,284 --> 00:22:15,844 Speaker 2: where he stands out, particularly relative to the ability to 386 00:22:15,884 --> 00:22:17,924 Speaker 2: tell groups slightly contradictory things. 387 00:22:18,164 --> 00:22:21,444 Speaker 1: It's not slightly contradictory. This is not a question of degree. 388 00:22:21,524 --> 00:22:22,924 Speaker 1: This is just this is just. 389 00:22:22,964 --> 00:22:25,684 Speaker 2: A question of inher so she wanted to ban tracking, 390 00:22:25,724 --> 00:22:27,804 Speaker 2: and now she does it anymore and has offered no 391 00:22:28,244 --> 00:22:30,524 Speaker 2: reason for that change from political expedience. 392 00:22:30,724 --> 00:22:34,364 Speaker 1: Sure that that happens, and that happens with all politicians. 393 00:22:34,364 --> 00:22:37,364 Speaker 1: But like I said, if we just label all politicians 394 00:22:37,444 --> 00:22:41,044 Speaker 1: con artists, that label loses all meaning. So we need 395 00:22:41,124 --> 00:22:43,564 Speaker 1: to have it as a continuum. As we started off 396 00:22:43,564 --> 00:22:46,084 Speaker 1: this segment by saying, right, it's shades of gray. It's 397 00:22:46,084 --> 00:22:48,924 Speaker 1: not black and white, but there are you know, there 398 00:22:48,964 --> 00:22:51,964 Speaker 1: are dividing lines. And unless you want to label every 399 00:22:52,004 --> 00:22:55,564 Speaker 1: single politician in history, by the way, including Bernie Sanders, 400 00:22:55,684 --> 00:22:58,484 Speaker 1: as a con artist, then then. 401 00:22:58,404 --> 00:23:02,324 Speaker 2: We have to least Connie politicians. 402 00:23:01,804 --> 00:23:05,004 Speaker 1: Exactly That's why I said, But then we include him 403 00:23:05,044 --> 00:23:08,404 Speaker 1: because he's done connie things in the past. But unless 404 00:23:08,404 --> 00:23:11,284 Speaker 1: we do that, in which case the word con artist 405 00:23:11,404 --> 00:23:14,964 Speaker 1: completely gets deprived of all meaning. We have to start 406 00:23:15,004 --> 00:23:19,644 Speaker 1: making certain kind of certain distinctions along that continuum. 407 00:23:19,964 --> 00:23:21,964 Speaker 2: Forty of the country is going to vote for Trump. 408 00:23:21,964 --> 00:23:26,004 Speaker 2: I'm trying to explain, they're. 409 00:23:25,884 --> 00:23:28,604 Speaker 1: Victims of a con artist, and they will never be 410 00:23:28,684 --> 00:23:32,804 Speaker 1: persuaded otherwise because victims of con artists will stay victims 411 00:23:32,884 --> 00:23:35,404 Speaker 1: and will always think that the person that they're following 412 00:23:35,524 --> 00:23:38,644 Speaker 1: is not a con artist. For me, are true believers. 413 00:23:39,044 --> 00:23:42,084 Speaker 2: It's their narrow self interest to vote for Trump. Sure. 414 00:23:42,124 --> 00:23:44,284 Speaker 1: And then there are those people who are their positions 415 00:23:44,284 --> 00:23:48,724 Speaker 1: elevated in absolutely absolutely. Then there are those cynical piece 416 00:23:48,844 --> 00:23:52,244 Speaker 1: of shit human beings. Yeah that I'm just gonna who 417 00:23:52,404 --> 00:23:55,524 Speaker 1: vote for Trump just because of cynical self interest and 418 00:23:55,604 --> 00:23:57,404 Speaker 1: don't give a fuck what happens to the rest of 419 00:23:57,444 --> 00:23:59,924 Speaker 1: the world and the rest of the country. Those people also, 420 00:24:00,484 --> 00:24:01,084 Speaker 1: Sorry listener. 421 00:24:02,684 --> 00:24:05,084 Speaker 2: First of all, I hope we have some Trump listeners. No, like, 422 00:24:05,124 --> 00:24:07,604 Speaker 2: I disagree with that. I think I don't think it's 423 00:24:07,604 --> 00:24:09,084 Speaker 2: a bad thing if people vote in terms of their 424 00:24:09,164 --> 00:24:12,444 Speaker 2: narrow self interest I think that's that's a part of 425 00:24:12,484 --> 00:24:16,604 Speaker 2: a political economy that can be healthy. I think sometimes 426 00:24:17,004 --> 00:24:19,284 Speaker 2: Trump understands that you do want to appeal to people's 427 00:24:19,724 --> 00:24:23,524 Speaker 2: sense of identity and people aren't doing some Cartesian expected 428 00:24:23,604 --> 00:24:29,964 Speaker 2: value calculation right about the impact of climate change or whatnot. 429 00:24:31,124 --> 00:24:33,284 Speaker 1: No, I think that that's right. But I think that 430 00:24:33,324 --> 00:24:37,164 Speaker 1: there are people who are completely cynical and who have 431 00:24:37,564 --> 00:24:41,364 Speaker 1: this sort of very narrow lens of what's better for 432 00:24:41,524 --> 00:24:44,564 Speaker 1: my bottom line. I don't give a fuck what happens 433 00:24:44,604 --> 00:24:47,044 Speaker 1: to anyone else in the world except for me, and 434 00:24:47,084 --> 00:24:49,484 Speaker 1: I'm going to vote for the person who makes that better. 435 00:24:49,964 --> 00:24:54,284 Speaker 1: And that there's certainly you know, that's fine. There are 436 00:24:54,324 --> 00:24:57,084 Speaker 1: psychopaths in the world. Do I think that makes them 437 00:24:57,364 --> 00:25:00,404 Speaker 1: good people? Do I think that that makes them some? 438 00:25:00,684 --> 00:25:02,604 Speaker 1: You know? No? I don't. 439 00:25:02,884 --> 00:25:06,804 Speaker 2: I Actually, if campaigned on a platform to ban poker, 440 00:25:06,844 --> 00:25:07,844 Speaker 2: would you vote for Trump? 441 00:25:08,644 --> 00:25:08,804 Speaker 1: No? 442 00:25:08,884 --> 00:25:09,884 Speaker 2: I would. I would. 443 00:25:10,244 --> 00:25:11,124 Speaker 1: I absolutely would not. 444 00:25:12,124 --> 00:25:13,644 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I would. 445 00:25:13,884 --> 00:25:17,804 Speaker 1: I would absolutely still vote for Family because in my mind, sure, 446 00:25:17,924 --> 00:25:21,284 Speaker 1: you know, I'm a poker player. But like if we're 447 00:25:21,324 --> 00:25:25,764 Speaker 1: talking about one person says they're going to ban online poker, 448 00:25:26,244 --> 00:25:29,964 Speaker 1: and the other person says they're going to do a 449 00:25:30,004 --> 00:25:32,844 Speaker 1: lot worse to the world. Like, all right, you know, 450 00:25:33,044 --> 00:25:34,764 Speaker 1: if you want to play online poker, you can go 451 00:25:34,804 --> 00:25:35,804 Speaker 1: to Canada. 452 00:25:36,604 --> 00:25:40,084 Speaker 2: I think. I mean, there's a long discussion about this 453 00:25:40,124 --> 00:25:42,644 Speaker 2: in my book, right. I think if you're not protecting 454 00:25:42,684 --> 00:25:44,644 Speaker 2: your self interest, you wind up getting stumped on in 455 00:25:44,684 --> 00:25:46,204 Speaker 2: the long run. I think that's what the game theory 456 00:25:46,244 --> 00:25:50,964 Speaker 2: equilibrium is, is that if you're not willing to defend 457 00:25:50,964 --> 00:25:54,004 Speaker 2: your self interest, then you get trampled. 458 00:25:54,724 --> 00:25:56,884 Speaker 1: But it's not black and white, right, Like, I think 459 00:25:56,924 --> 00:26:00,764 Speaker 1: being a single issue voter, like poker is a really 460 00:26:00,804 --> 00:26:03,124 Speaker 1: stupid single issue to vote on, just like it would 461 00:26:03,124 --> 00:26:06,204 Speaker 1: be a really stupid single issue, you know, to vote on, 462 00:26:06,284 --> 00:26:09,564 Speaker 1: like on crypto or something like where only one thing 463 00:26:09,604 --> 00:26:13,044 Speaker 1: matters to you, because the world is much more complicated, 464 00:26:13,124 --> 00:26:15,204 Speaker 1: and so you have to actually just try to figure 465 00:26:15,244 --> 00:26:20,124 Speaker 1: out out of this constellation of policies, which future is 466 00:26:20,164 --> 00:26:23,404 Speaker 1: going to be a better future for me and for 467 00:26:23,884 --> 00:26:28,084 Speaker 1: everyone else. And unless, like unless you think that you 468 00:26:28,284 --> 00:26:32,244 Speaker 1: are you know, wealthy enough and insulated enough that you'll 469 00:26:32,244 --> 00:26:34,804 Speaker 1: be kind of okay no matter what, like if the 470 00:26:34,804 --> 00:26:37,244 Speaker 1: world burns, you'll still be fine, which I think is 471 00:26:37,244 --> 00:26:38,244 Speaker 1: also kind of delutible. 472 00:26:38,324 --> 00:26:40,244 Speaker 2: I would just say that if Kamala Harris were to 473 00:26:40,244 --> 00:26:42,844 Speaker 2: say I want a ban poker, I would feel targeted 474 00:26:42,884 --> 00:26:45,404 Speaker 2: as a poker player. And clearly this is a community 475 00:26:45,404 --> 00:26:47,764 Speaker 2: that wouldn't be interested in the votes of people like me, 476 00:26:47,844 --> 00:26:49,284 Speaker 2: So why would I want to be in their coalition? 477 00:26:50,124 --> 00:26:52,004 Speaker 1: But you wouldn't then go and vote for Trump? 478 00:26:52,044 --> 00:26:55,164 Speaker 2: I'm trying to Yes, I would if Kamala Harris campaign 479 00:26:55,164 --> 00:26:56,924 Speaker 2: on a platform to ban all forms of poker, I 480 00:26:56,964 --> 00:27:00,084 Speaker 2: would vote for Donald Trump or maybe a vote libertarian 481 00:27:00,164 --> 00:27:00,604 Speaker 2: or something. 482 00:27:01,044 --> 00:27:02,804 Speaker 1: Well those are two very different. 483 00:27:02,444 --> 00:27:05,604 Speaker 2: Things sort of but like, but yeah, I would want 484 00:27:06,204 --> 00:27:08,564 Speaker 2: Harris to lose, right, Like, I think a lot of 485 00:27:08,604 --> 00:27:12,044 Speaker 2: people have it in there. Rational Maybe perhaps. 486 00:27:11,764 --> 00:27:13,324 Speaker 1: That's what I was trying to say. I don't actually 487 00:27:13,324 --> 00:27:17,204 Speaker 1: think it's rational, because if the payoff matrix is such 488 00:27:17,364 --> 00:27:20,764 Speaker 1: that okay, no poker, but end of the world poker, 489 00:27:21,724 --> 00:27:26,084 Speaker 1: you know, no poker, you know, no poker, but world 490 00:27:26,124 --> 00:27:28,164 Speaker 1: is fine or poker and kind of end of the 491 00:27:28,204 --> 00:27:30,684 Speaker 1: world in a lot of different ways a civil war, 492 00:27:31,044 --> 00:27:34,964 Speaker 1: then your ev matrix is completely different, and that one 493 00:27:35,324 --> 00:27:38,484 Speaker 1: that one reason why you voted for the other candidate 494 00:27:38,804 --> 00:27:42,444 Speaker 1: is completely invalidated. If your rational the rational thing is 495 00:27:42,484 --> 00:27:45,524 Speaker 1: you have to look at the total of the payoff matrix, 496 00:27:45,844 --> 00:27:48,044 Speaker 1: and then you vote for the one with the highest total. 497 00:27:48,244 --> 00:27:52,284 Speaker 1: And unless poker outweighs everything else, and pokers waited at 498 00:27:52,284 --> 00:27:54,964 Speaker 1: one hundred thousand, and if there's no poker, then nothing 499 00:27:55,004 --> 00:27:58,964 Speaker 1: else matters. Then I don't actually see that that payoff 500 00:27:59,004 --> 00:28:03,764 Speaker 1: matrix is necessarily going to the EV for EV, for me, 501 00:28:03,924 --> 00:28:08,084 Speaker 1: for you, I understand, And variety goes to hell and 502 00:28:08,244 --> 00:28:11,804 Speaker 1: the world burns down and there's a civil war and 503 00:28:11,844 --> 00:28:16,084 Speaker 1: you Nate get murdered because you know you were right 504 00:28:16,444 --> 00:28:18,524 Speaker 1: You're like, then you don't care if you were playing 505 00:28:18,564 --> 00:28:20,604 Speaker 1: poker when you got murdered, right like? 506 00:28:20,764 --> 00:28:24,364 Speaker 2: I think we to as those risks then, right like, 507 00:28:24,684 --> 00:28:29,164 Speaker 2: So let me make a distinction. So Trump recently, I 508 00:28:29,164 --> 00:28:31,604 Speaker 2: guess changed his stance or flip flop because you passed 509 00:28:31,644 --> 00:28:35,524 Speaker 2: a policy in during his tenure to limit the State 510 00:28:35,564 --> 00:28:39,924 Speaker 2: and Local tax deduction SALT. If you live and own 511 00:28:39,964 --> 00:28:43,164 Speaker 2: property in New York State, you probably play a lot 512 00:28:43,204 --> 00:28:46,004 Speaker 2: of combined taxes between the city and the state and 513 00:28:46,044 --> 00:28:50,404 Speaker 2: property bills. So Trump has said that he's interested in 514 00:28:51,684 --> 00:28:54,644 Speaker 2: unlocking this deduction where you can claim unlimited amounts and 515 00:28:54,684 --> 00:28:57,164 Speaker 2: not just ten k. Trump broy the way was responsible 516 00:28:57,164 --> 00:28:59,724 Speaker 2: for the bill that introduced this deduction in the first place, 517 00:28:59,764 --> 00:29:02,564 Speaker 2: so he might not be trustworthy there. But if I 518 00:29:02,604 --> 00:29:05,044 Speaker 2: believed him and narrowly had self interest, then the salt 519 00:29:05,044 --> 00:29:07,724 Speaker 2: cap would be something that affected my bottom line a 520 00:29:07,724 --> 00:29:16,244 Speaker 2: fair bit. So if I were voting purely selfishly, that's 521 00:29:16,324 --> 00:29:24,284 Speaker 2: probably pretty tangible, right, something that affects me directly. Now, 522 00:29:24,364 --> 00:29:26,484 Speaker 2: I would not one for Harris. I would not vote 523 00:29:26,524 --> 00:29:31,284 Speaker 2: for Trump on that basis because whatever probably I wait, 524 00:29:31,404 --> 00:29:34,684 Speaker 2: things that happened to me at like some multiple of 525 00:29:35,364 --> 00:29:39,244 Speaker 2: good for the world, right, But that wouldn't outweigh if 526 00:29:39,604 --> 00:29:42,404 Speaker 2: Harris and Democrats were to outlaw poker, my response would be, 527 00:29:42,484 --> 00:29:45,124 Speaker 2: fuck you. You know, I am clearly not a person 528 00:29:45,524 --> 00:29:48,004 Speaker 2: that you care about. I'm clearly not a person. You know. 529 00:29:48,044 --> 00:29:50,204 Speaker 2: You don't see the world in a way that I 530 00:29:50,284 --> 00:29:52,844 Speaker 2: see the world. And if you think this thing is bad, 531 00:29:52,924 --> 00:29:55,404 Speaker 2: then and that I think that's more obligation to vote 532 00:29:55,444 --> 00:29:57,964 Speaker 2: against people who want to band poker. 533 00:29:58,044 --> 00:30:01,124 Speaker 1: I think if you actually listen to yourself out of context, 534 00:30:01,164 --> 00:30:04,444 Speaker 1: you will see that that is such an emotional response. 535 00:30:04,564 --> 00:30:10,884 Speaker 1: You are doing something. Now's a response no completely emotional. 536 00:30:11,204 --> 00:30:14,884 Speaker 2: Reciprocity are important in in game theory. 537 00:30:14,644 --> 00:30:17,804 Speaker 1: Sure, but fuck you because you did this is not 538 00:30:18,084 --> 00:30:19,444 Speaker 1: is not an appropriate response. 539 00:30:19,884 --> 00:30:24,604 Speaker 2: You would look at the emotional response because. 540 00:30:24,844 --> 00:30:28,364 Speaker 1: Of course, of course, however, I think that you just 541 00:30:28,444 --> 00:30:32,804 Speaker 1: need to realize that rational cannot be based on an 542 00:30:32,804 --> 00:30:36,804 Speaker 1: issue like poker, right, because you need to have I know, 543 00:30:36,844 --> 00:30:40,804 Speaker 1: you're trying to make a very strong case for a point, 544 00:30:40,844 --> 00:30:42,924 Speaker 1: and you're you're kind of pushing it to. 545 00:30:42,884 --> 00:30:44,484 Speaker 2: The extreme, but it's not. 546 00:30:45,244 --> 00:30:46,964 Speaker 1: But that's not a rational. 547 00:30:46,604 --> 00:30:50,284 Speaker 2: Extreme complete expecting value calculation of Harris versus Trump. 548 00:30:50,564 --> 00:30:54,924 Speaker 1: No, I haven't okay, and I never said I have 549 00:30:55,044 --> 00:30:57,604 Speaker 1: I have no, I don't know. I would need Yeah, 550 00:30:57,604 --> 00:31:00,804 Speaker 1: i'd go, I could go down the line. But there 551 00:31:00,844 --> 00:31:04,084 Speaker 1: are certain things and certain risks that I actually believe 552 00:31:04,444 --> 00:31:07,524 Speaker 1: are very big risks that I know are much higher 553 00:31:07,524 --> 00:31:09,764 Speaker 1: with Trump, And so I don't feel like I actually 554 00:31:09,764 --> 00:31:12,164 Speaker 1: have to sit down and do an expected value calculation 555 00:31:12,484 --> 00:31:15,124 Speaker 1: because there are certain existential risks like AI, by the way, 556 00:31:15,524 --> 00:31:19,204 Speaker 1: that I think would be much higher under Trump. And 557 00:31:18,764 --> 00:31:21,044 Speaker 1: you are the person a by the way, who convinced 558 00:31:21,044 --> 00:31:23,404 Speaker 1: me that I should be much more worried about AI 559 00:31:23,804 --> 00:31:27,084 Speaker 1: than I was, so europe doom was much higher than mine. 560 00:31:27,884 --> 00:31:31,244 Speaker 1: I think that what Trump does to the environment is worrisome. 561 00:31:31,684 --> 00:31:35,124 Speaker 1: Trump as an existential risk to females who are facing 562 00:31:35,244 --> 00:31:39,004 Speaker 1: pregnancies that might not be viable. We know multiple women 563 00:31:39,004 --> 00:31:41,684 Speaker 1: who have lost their lives because they couldn't get abortion. 564 00:31:42,164 --> 00:31:45,844 Speaker 1: We see kind of it on an individual level. I 565 00:31:45,884 --> 00:31:48,204 Speaker 1: think there are many more existential risks when you have 566 00:31:48,244 --> 00:31:51,164 Speaker 1: a candidate like Donald Trump and with Kamala Harskin. 567 00:31:51,444 --> 00:31:53,604 Speaker 2: So if you consulted let's say that you had a 568 00:31:53,644 --> 00:31:57,764 Speaker 2: super intelligent chat GPT, right, that was possessed of all 569 00:31:57,844 --> 00:32:00,444 Speaker 2: the knowledge that we're capable of having. We can't control 570 00:32:00,484 --> 00:32:04,644 Speaker 2: every contingency, but on a probabilistic basis, right, And I 571 00:32:04,684 --> 00:32:08,204 Speaker 2: asked it, what are the chances that the world there's 572 00:32:08,244 --> 00:32:13,564 Speaker 2: more in net utility created considering all these things with Harris? 573 00:32:13,604 --> 00:32:17,564 Speaker 2: Then under Trump, right, I would not be a Harris voter. 574 00:32:17,564 --> 00:32:19,724 Speaker 2: I would not be one hundred percent confident. I have 575 00:32:19,804 --> 00:32:22,964 Speaker 2: no able say Harris maybe seventy thirty. I don't know. 576 00:32:23,004 --> 00:32:24,844 Speaker 2: I mean, there are a lot of complicated factors here, right, 577 00:32:24,844 --> 00:32:28,284 Speaker 2: There's a big margin of error. You know, they're also 578 00:32:28,364 --> 00:32:30,684 Speaker 2: knockoff effects on what happens to future elections and things 579 00:32:30,684 --> 00:32:33,204 Speaker 2: like that. Absolutely, I do know that if you're fucking 580 00:32:33,204 --> 00:32:35,884 Speaker 2: me over with some of this hypothetical poker example that 581 00:32:35,924 --> 00:32:38,044 Speaker 2: I that I know, right, and I think it's like 582 00:32:38,084 --> 00:32:41,884 Speaker 2: a reasonable heuristic to weigh things that clearly indicate that 583 00:32:41,964 --> 00:32:43,964 Speaker 2: you're part of the out group. And this is part 584 00:32:43,964 --> 00:32:46,284 Speaker 2: of big part of democrats problem is that if if 585 00:32:46,564 --> 00:32:51,124 Speaker 2: you know, this is declined versus four years ago, but 586 00:32:51,284 --> 00:32:54,324 Speaker 2: you know, Democrats have this thing particularly progressive where if 587 00:32:54,324 --> 00:32:56,924 Speaker 2: you're not aligned with them on everything, then you are 588 00:32:56,964 --> 00:33:00,524 Speaker 2: created like some deplorable months. Absolutely absolutely and a lot 589 00:33:00,524 --> 00:33:01,084 Speaker 2: of you know. 590 00:33:02,364 --> 00:33:04,684 Speaker 1: By the way, that should absolutely not be the case. 591 00:33:06,404 --> 00:33:10,524 Speaker 2: I think Democrats under rate how many votes they lose 592 00:33:10,524 --> 00:33:11,364 Speaker 2: because they're annoying. 593 00:33:11,884 --> 00:33:14,844 Speaker 1: Yeah, and they are annoying, And I hate the holier 594 00:33:14,884 --> 00:33:18,284 Speaker 1: than now attitude, and I hate the people who have 595 00:33:18,404 --> 00:33:21,004 Speaker 1: this whole blanket like if you disagree with me on X, 596 00:33:21,084 --> 00:33:24,284 Speaker 1: then you know, then that's it, Like I'm done, I 597 00:33:24,324 --> 00:33:28,284 Speaker 1: completely agree with you, and the good news is nowhere. 598 00:33:28,524 --> 00:33:32,004 Speaker 1: Has Kamala Harris even suggested that she was going to 599 00:33:32,044 --> 00:33:36,684 Speaker 1: ban poker, so poker players, you can be happy. I'm happy. 600 00:33:36,724 --> 00:33:39,844 Speaker 1: I would be. I would obviously be completely miserable and 601 00:33:39,924 --> 00:33:44,324 Speaker 1: really upset if that were to ever happen because I, 602 00:33:44,444 --> 00:33:46,004 Speaker 1: as I said, I love poker and I think it's 603 00:33:46,044 --> 00:33:49,524 Speaker 1: such a force for good in society. But luckily this 604 00:33:49,764 --> 00:33:53,884 Speaker 1: was all a hypothetical example, and poker is in no 605 00:33:54,044 --> 00:33:58,284 Speaker 1: danger of getting banned, so let's be grateful for that. 606 00:34:03,444 --> 00:34:07,364 Speaker 1: We'll be back in a minute to talk about politics 607 00:34:07,364 --> 00:34:10,884 Speaker 1: and more conventional framework and talk about some polling and 608 00:34:10,924 --> 00:34:35,244 Speaker 1: what's happened since we spoke last week. Nate, you want 609 00:34:35,284 --> 00:34:38,284 Speaker 1: to give us a little bit of an update of 610 00:34:38,964 --> 00:34:42,524 Speaker 1: what has happened since we spoke last Tuesday. Have there 611 00:34:42,604 --> 00:34:46,724 Speaker 1: been new polls, new data? What's on your mind? What 612 00:34:46,844 --> 00:34:48,884 Speaker 1: are you seeing? How's the race looking? 613 00:34:50,524 --> 00:34:54,484 Speaker 2: So, Kamala Harris has gained in the neighborhood of one 614 00:34:54,564 --> 00:34:58,204 Speaker 2: percentage point since the debate, which might not seem like 615 00:34:58,244 --> 00:35:01,604 Speaker 2: a big deal, but it actually is, given that last 616 00:35:01,604 --> 00:35:03,764 Speaker 2: two elections basically came down to one point or so, 617 00:35:04,044 --> 00:35:07,324 Speaker 2: and moreover, it's been a little bit more than that 618 00:35:07,444 --> 00:35:11,244 Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania, which is the most important tipping point state. 619 00:35:12,684 --> 00:35:14,924 Speaker 2: So as a result, if you may remember, this little 620 00:35:14,924 --> 00:35:18,084 Speaker 2: built model had Trump a little bit ahead for a bit. 621 00:35:18,244 --> 00:35:20,724 Speaker 2: Now it's fifty to fifty. You know, Look, you're poker 622 00:35:20,764 --> 00:35:23,524 Speaker 2: players today it's fifty four forty six Harris, if you 623 00:35:23,564 --> 00:35:25,924 Speaker 2: want it, if you want to be on the pocket 624 00:35:26,004 --> 00:35:29,364 Speaker 2: Jacks versus Ace King student, you'd rather have the Jacks, 625 00:35:29,364 --> 00:35:32,284 Speaker 2: which win more than half the time. But about the 626 00:35:32,284 --> 00:35:37,324 Speaker 2: closest election that we've seen, you know, polls within one, two, three, four, five, six, 627 00:35:37,404 --> 00:35:41,244 Speaker 2: seven swing states are within two and a half points. 628 00:35:41,644 --> 00:35:44,884 Speaker 2: If you have the election today, then Harris is ahead 629 00:35:44,884 --> 00:35:48,844 Speaker 2: in states totaling two hundred and seventy six electoral. 630 00:35:48,244 --> 00:35:51,524 Speaker 1: That's crazy, Yeah, like that is that's incredibly close. And 631 00:35:51,564 --> 00:35:53,084 Speaker 1: you said seven and a half by the way, and 632 00:35:53,124 --> 00:35:54,484 Speaker 1: you're in your update because you have. 633 00:35:54,524 --> 00:35:57,564 Speaker 2: So Florida is this is this high risk, high rewards 634 00:35:57,564 --> 00:35:59,564 Speaker 2: state where if you're in Florida, it's thirty electoral votes 635 00:35:59,564 --> 00:36:02,764 Speaker 2: and you're probably in. That's game over for Trump. But 636 00:36:02,764 --> 00:36:05,084 Speaker 2: it's probably a little closer. But it's Florida's little bit 637 00:36:05,164 --> 00:36:05,484 Speaker 2: quite up. 638 00:36:06,004 --> 00:36:08,844 Speaker 1: Unlikely, right, but no, so. 639 00:36:08,804 --> 00:36:11,764 Speaker 2: Two seventies as if she holds Harris holds the blue 640 00:36:11,764 --> 00:36:17,324 Speaker 2: Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania plus Nevada. 641 00:36:17,524 --> 00:36:18,524 Speaker 1: Congratulations. 642 00:36:18,804 --> 00:36:22,404 Speaker 2: Now she doesn't win Nevada, she's at two seventy and 643 00:36:22,444 --> 00:36:24,084 Speaker 2: you need two hundred and sixty nine to win. 644 00:36:24,324 --> 00:36:29,244 Speaker 1: Okay, even without even without Nevada, she win by one. Okay, Yeah, 645 00:36:29,284 --> 00:36:30,844 Speaker 1: that's insane, that's insane. 646 00:36:30,884 --> 00:36:34,124 Speaker 2: If she wins the second congressional district in Nebraska, which 647 00:36:34,124 --> 00:36:36,164 Speaker 2: is why I'm long winded they getting into this. 648 00:36:36,404 --> 00:36:39,604 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about that, because how many states are 649 00:36:39,644 --> 00:36:42,724 Speaker 1: there that split electoral roads. Is it just Maine? In Nebraska? 650 00:36:43,364 --> 00:36:46,564 Speaker 2: There are two states. So in Maine there is one district, 651 00:36:46,564 --> 00:36:50,204 Speaker 2: the rural second district, home to Acadian National Park and 652 00:36:50,364 --> 00:36:53,244 Speaker 2: some of the most beautiful coastline in America's but also 653 00:36:53,244 --> 00:36:56,204 Speaker 2: home to logging industry. 654 00:36:55,804 --> 00:36:57,364 Speaker 1: And sponsored by the state of. 655 00:36:57,404 --> 00:37:01,004 Speaker 2: Maine, sponsored by Main second district, but also home to 656 00:37:01,124 --> 00:37:07,004 Speaker 2: logging communities. Weird French, American Acadian shit. I even know 657 00:37:07,044 --> 00:37:12,204 Speaker 2: what goes on up there. They're speaking France parts of Maine, right, fishermen, 658 00:37:13,484 --> 00:37:16,924 Speaker 2: I don't know little. It kind of mains an interesting state, right, 659 00:37:17,884 --> 00:37:20,204 Speaker 2: It's not very religious, but you can still get some 660 00:37:20,324 --> 00:37:24,804 Speaker 2: kind of kind of rednecky behavior. For sure. I love 661 00:37:24,884 --> 00:37:29,764 Speaker 2: Main but it's an interesting state. So Trump is expected 662 00:37:29,804 --> 00:37:32,404 Speaker 2: to win that one district in Maine, that rural one, 663 00:37:32,804 --> 00:37:36,924 Speaker 2: whereas Kamala Harris is expected to win Omaha, Nebraska, Basically 664 00:37:36,964 --> 00:37:40,764 Speaker 2: that's the Correschi DiscT for Omaha and its suburbs. So 665 00:37:40,804 --> 00:37:45,324 Speaker 2: those offset the GFP wanted to change this law in Nebraska. 666 00:37:45,444 --> 00:37:49,564 Speaker 2: They've been trying, which was kind of sleazy because the 667 00:37:49,604 --> 00:37:54,004 Speaker 2: campaign's already begun strategy has already been involved for campaigning 668 00:37:54,004 --> 00:37:57,484 Speaker 2: in Omaha and running ads there and things like that. It's, 669 00:37:57,484 --> 00:38:02,404 Speaker 2: by the way, too late for Democrats to reciprocate in Maine. 670 00:38:02,924 --> 00:38:04,844 Speaker 2: So and they but they lacked the votes to do this, 671 00:38:04,924 --> 00:38:07,564 Speaker 2: so they were trying to change the rules in a 672 00:38:07,604 --> 00:38:10,044 Speaker 2: way that I thought was very dirty. Pool But as 673 00:38:10,044 --> 00:38:12,524 Speaker 2: a result of not doing that, this two seventy to 674 00:38:12,764 --> 00:38:17,284 Speaker 2: sixty eight map still works for Harris, provided she actually 675 00:38:17,364 --> 00:38:20,644 Speaker 2: does win the Nebraska district. And by the way, there's 676 00:38:20,644 --> 00:38:23,884 Speaker 2: also this thing with faithless electors where some years some 677 00:38:24,164 --> 00:38:26,284 Speaker 2: electors in the electoral colleges actually a group of people 678 00:38:27,004 --> 00:38:28,804 Speaker 2: don't vote for the candidate they're pledged to vote for. 679 00:38:30,084 --> 00:38:33,444 Speaker 1: How many times has that happened in history? 680 00:38:33,484 --> 00:38:35,924 Speaker 2: It hasn't swung an election, But like in twenty sixteen, 681 00:38:36,644 --> 00:38:39,204 Speaker 2: some people were so fed up with the Trump Clinton 682 00:38:39,204 --> 00:38:41,884 Speaker 2: election that there were quite a few faithleus electors, not 683 00:38:42,044 --> 00:38:45,484 Speaker 2: enough to like cost Uh Trump the election, but like, 684 00:38:46,604 --> 00:38:49,644 Speaker 2: but there were some defectors for sure, have. 685 00:38:49,644 --> 00:38:52,964 Speaker 1: There is that the only election I'm genuinely asking, I 686 00:38:52,964 --> 00:38:53,924 Speaker 1: actually don't know. 687 00:38:53,964 --> 00:38:56,964 Speaker 2: There was somebody who voted for John Edwards instead of 688 00:38:57,004 --> 00:38:58,564 Speaker 2: John Kerry in two thousand and four. 689 00:38:58,804 --> 00:39:01,444 Speaker 1: So it's often, it's rare, but it happens, and it's 690 00:39:01,484 --> 00:39:04,564 Speaker 1: never been decisive, is what your No. 691 00:39:04,604 --> 00:39:08,564 Speaker 2: But if it's two seventy, then if any comes bound right, 692 00:39:08,604 --> 00:39:11,324 Speaker 2: but it's to seventy, then in some states are cracking 693 00:39:11,364 --> 00:39:13,404 Speaker 2: down on this. If it's two seventy, then it means 694 00:39:13,404 --> 00:39:14,764 Speaker 2: there are two hundred and sixty nine or two so 695 00:39:14,764 --> 00:39:19,124 Speaker 2: tenty people that could change history by by by refusing 696 00:39:19,124 --> 00:39:20,964 Speaker 2: to cast their vote as their as their pledge. So 697 00:39:20,964 --> 00:39:23,924 Speaker 2: it's a little bit of a you know, we use 698 00:39:23,964 --> 00:39:26,484 Speaker 2: the term existential risk of this episode, but it can. 699 00:39:26,404 --> 00:39:28,124 Speaker 1: No, no, no, I think I think that makes sense 700 00:39:28,164 --> 00:39:30,284 Speaker 1: though in this particular case, if we're looking at an 701 00:39:30,364 --> 00:39:33,044 Speaker 1: election that could be that close, that could you know, 702 00:39:33,124 --> 00:39:35,604 Speaker 1: could come down to two seventy versus two sixty eight, 703 00:39:36,124 --> 00:39:39,844 Speaker 1: then than we are talking about about that sort of thing. 704 00:39:40,524 --> 00:39:42,964 Speaker 1: By the way, I'm kind of curious to hear your 705 00:39:43,004 --> 00:39:46,564 Speaker 1: take on this. Do you think that the main Nebraska 706 00:39:46,644 --> 00:39:50,084 Speaker 1: model is a good one. Do you think that like? 707 00:39:50,444 --> 00:39:53,804 Speaker 1: And do you think it's good to split the electoral votes? 708 00:39:53,964 --> 00:39:58,244 Speaker 1: And do you see any other states potentially going that direction. 709 00:39:59,044 --> 00:40:00,164 Speaker 1: I'm just I'm just curious. 710 00:40:00,644 --> 00:40:03,364 Speaker 2: I think it's more likely that what will happen is 711 00:40:03,404 --> 00:40:07,524 Speaker 2: that because Nebraska threatened to rescind this, it wouldn't surprise 712 00:40:07,604 --> 00:40:12,004 Speaker 2: me if main prem deive ly rescinds their system. And 713 00:40:12,044 --> 00:40:17,124 Speaker 2: then look, these are weird cases where they kind of 714 00:40:17,124 --> 00:40:19,204 Speaker 2: offset one another. In general, No, I think it's bad 715 00:40:19,324 --> 00:40:22,164 Speaker 2: for I think it's bad when you have different states 716 00:40:22,164 --> 00:40:24,284 Speaker 2: with different rules. I think it's a slippery slope too. 717 00:40:24,964 --> 00:40:27,204 Speaker 2: You know, for a while Pennsylvania want to allocate it's 718 00:40:27,244 --> 00:40:31,444 Speaker 2: just delegates proportionately for example, I think I think you 719 00:40:31,484 --> 00:40:35,484 Speaker 2: want consistent rules. The main Nebraska thing is pretty unikely 720 00:40:35,564 --> 00:40:38,764 Speaker 2: swing election because they offset. But yeah, I and by 721 00:40:38,804 --> 00:40:43,244 Speaker 2: the way, it's also giving more power to redistricting, which 722 00:40:43,284 --> 00:40:46,764 Speaker 2: is how districts are drawn, which in many states is 723 00:40:46,764 --> 00:40:52,924 Speaker 2: a very partisan process. Yeah, puts huge steaks into this 724 00:40:53,084 --> 00:40:58,004 Speaker 2: once every ten year process. The Supreme Court has ruled 725 00:40:58,004 --> 00:41:04,364 Speaker 2: that partisan jerry mandering is legal within certain boundaries. Probably 726 00:41:04,404 --> 00:41:07,884 Speaker 2: will not change the Roberts Court, and so yeah, I 727 00:41:07,884 --> 00:41:09,844 Speaker 2: would not want to give the redistrict pros this even 728 00:41:09,844 --> 00:41:10,324 Speaker 2: more power. 729 00:41:10,764 --> 00:41:13,084 Speaker 1: By the way, since you keep saying that they're balancing 730 00:41:13,124 --> 00:41:16,444 Speaker 1: each other, let me bring our episode full circle. We 731 00:41:16,564 --> 00:41:19,364 Speaker 1: started off talking about Anna Sarokan, and you said you'd 732 00:41:19,364 --> 00:41:21,724 Speaker 1: never heard of her. However, you know there are certain 733 00:41:21,764 --> 00:41:24,084 Speaker 1: things that you have heard of, like Curb your enthusiasm, 734 00:41:24,524 --> 00:41:28,124 Speaker 1: So let's I just want to bring kurb back here. 735 00:41:29,044 --> 00:41:33,764 Speaker 1: There was an episode last season where Larry David is 736 00:41:33,844 --> 00:41:38,284 Speaker 1: standing in line to vote, and it's a really long 737 00:41:38,324 --> 00:41:42,044 Speaker 1: line and it's hot outside, and he asks the gentleman 738 00:41:42,044 --> 00:41:44,564 Speaker 1: in front of him who he's voting for. They're voting 739 00:41:44,604 --> 00:41:48,124 Speaker 1: for the opposite party's candidates, and he asks if he 740 00:41:48,244 --> 00:41:50,964 Speaker 1: wants to leave the line with him so that they 741 00:41:51,004 --> 00:41:54,644 Speaker 1: both do not vote, and they offset each other and 742 00:41:55,084 --> 00:41:56,764 Speaker 1: you know, they don't have to wait in line. The 743 00:41:56,804 --> 00:42:00,164 Speaker 1: guy agrees, they both leave. Larry David's candidate ends up 744 00:42:00,204 --> 00:42:03,764 Speaker 1: losing the election by one vote, and then it comes 745 00:42:03,804 --> 00:42:06,724 Speaker 1: out that someone saw him leaving the line and not voting. 746 00:42:07,604 --> 00:42:12,124 Speaker 1: And so I just wanted to bring this into our 747 00:42:12,164 --> 00:42:16,284 Speaker 1: discussion because it's what I keep thinking about when you 748 00:42:16,324 --> 00:42:19,084 Speaker 1: say they offset each other because, by the way, there 749 00:42:19,164 --> 00:42:21,924 Speaker 1: is kind of that logic, and some people do kind 750 00:42:21,924 --> 00:42:24,124 Speaker 1: of do that and they don't vote, and they find 751 00:42:24,124 --> 00:42:26,524 Speaker 1: someone else who agrees not to vote, who's voting in 752 00:42:26,564 --> 00:42:27,204 Speaker 1: the opposite to right. 753 00:42:27,364 --> 00:42:29,364 Speaker 2: Like two thousand and four, there was some Nator thing 754 00:42:29,524 --> 00:42:33,364 Speaker 2: where you trade your Nator vote in a safe state 755 00:42:33,444 --> 00:42:35,524 Speaker 2: for a carry vote in a swing state or something. 756 00:42:36,244 --> 00:42:37,804 Speaker 2: A memory hold all this stuff. 757 00:42:37,844 --> 00:42:41,964 Speaker 1: Anyway, curb your enthusiasm taught us that you should be 758 00:42:42,204 --> 00:42:44,804 Speaker 1: very wary of doing this because you are a candidate 759 00:42:44,924 --> 00:42:46,404 Speaker 1: my loose by one. 760 00:42:46,004 --> 00:42:49,924 Speaker 2: I sway to waction for like nineteen votes. Actually really, yeah, 761 00:42:49,964 --> 00:42:52,804 Speaker 2: so I am because I am strategic with my voting. 762 00:42:52,844 --> 00:42:57,524 Speaker 2: I'm a registered Republican because you have a lot of 763 00:42:57,604 --> 00:43:02,844 Speaker 2: influence if you're a registered Republican in Chelsea, Manhattan, which 764 00:43:02,884 --> 00:43:06,604 Speaker 2: is a very blue place. So twenty sixteen, I register 765 00:43:06,604 --> 00:43:09,604 Speaker 2: as a Republican to vote against Donald Trump. The cann 766 00:43:09,764 --> 00:43:12,244 Speaker 2: who was most viable at that point was John Kasick. 767 00:43:13,604 --> 00:43:16,684 Speaker 2: So I voted for Kasik, and Kasik won my congressional 768 00:43:16,684 --> 00:43:21,924 Speaker 2: district by I think nineteen votes or something, and therefore 769 00:43:22,084 --> 00:43:26,444 Speaker 2: won an extra delegate to the Republican Convention. So you 770 00:43:26,484 --> 00:43:31,044 Speaker 2: know me and nineteen other Chelsea Heights cost Trumpet a delegate. 771 00:43:31,524 --> 00:43:35,324 Speaker 1: All right, well it is, it is. It is a 772 00:43:35,324 --> 00:43:37,884 Speaker 1: lot of fun mileage. I think that's how strategic voting 773 00:43:37,884 --> 00:43:38,564 Speaker 1: should be done. 774 00:43:39,164 --> 00:43:41,924 Speaker 2: Kudos, Yeah, Maria. I think let's leave it there. I mean, 775 00:43:41,924 --> 00:43:44,244 Speaker 2: we've which wound up being a lot of politics, a 776 00:43:44,244 --> 00:43:45,084 Speaker 2: lot of politics. 777 00:43:45,124 --> 00:43:45,684 Speaker 1: It did it? 778 00:43:45,724 --> 00:43:48,764 Speaker 2: Did I need anythink I needed? 779 00:43:49,364 --> 00:43:52,804 Speaker 1: I need a decompression politics break. I love you and 780 00:43:53,004 --> 00:43:58,044 Speaker 1: I respect all of your opinions. Let's let's go grab 781 00:43:58,044 --> 00:44:00,684 Speaker 1: a drink and not talk politics. 782 00:44:04,564 --> 00:44:07,364 Speaker 2: Risky Business is hosted by me Nate Silper and me 783 00:44:07,524 --> 00:44:10,764 Speaker 2: Maria Kannakova. The show was a coproduction of Pushkin Industries 784 00:44:10,804 --> 00:44:15,044 Speaker 2: and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. Our 785 00:44:15,044 --> 00:44:19,404 Speaker 2: associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our engineer is Sarah Bruger. 786 00:44:19,884 --> 00:44:21,964 Speaker 2: Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 787 00:44:22,204 --> 00:44:23,924 Speaker 1: If you want to listen to an ad free version, 788 00:44:24,004 --> 00:44:26,684 Speaker 1: sign up for Pushkin Plus For six ninety nine a month. 789 00:44:26,804 --> 00:44:29,764 Speaker 1: You get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.