WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 17 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 39) 0:00:06.720 --> 0:00:09.760 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:12.760 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:15.280 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. 0:00:15.680 --> 0:00:17.599 It is time to break down some of our favorite 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:20.360 and our least favorite bets for the final regular season 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:23.200 week of the twenty nineteen NFL season. And with me 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:26.040 to talk about it all is Sean Corner, director of 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:29.560 predictive Analytics over at the Action Network. Sean is renowned 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:33.200 for his incredibly accurate projections for the NFL, which nearly 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:35.040 always leads to him being at the top of the 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:39.000 charts for the Fantasy pros Accuracy competition for Fantasy football, 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:41.000 but he is also near the top of the charts 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:44.120 for the Betting Pros Accuracy competition, so you're in good hands. 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:48.320 You can find him on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker. Sean. 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:49.760 Thanks for coming on the show. How's it going? 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.199 Yeah, thanks for having me. It's going well, And you know, 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:54.240 we were just mentioning this before we went on air, 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:56.920 but I think Week seventeen is define my favorite in 0:00:57.040 --> 0:00:59.960 terms of just betting and daily fantasy and player props 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:03.000 and stuff. So looking forward to joining you this week specifically. 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:05.720 Yeah, we talk about it a little bit in that 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:08.399 Week seventeen is kind of its own animal, right, I mean, 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:11.000 every week you can make your bets. This week we're 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:11.840 really try. 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:12.160 You know. 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:14.320 It's a lot more based on gut field than it 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:17.280 is on the raw number. So we are recording this 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:19.120 on Thursday, as we always do with the show, but 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:22.080 unlike usual, it's the day after Christmas. So that means 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.039 two things. First, I think it's safe to say that 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:25.800 we haven't had quite the same amount of time to 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:27.959 do our full analysis of this weekend's games as we 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:30.920 ordinarily would. And second, I'm not really sure how much 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.200 that matters because it's week seventeen and you can't really 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:35.920 analyze it like a normal week. We also can't possibly 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:38.320 have all the necessary information as to who's going to 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:41.360 start or sit, which would otherwise impact our analysis. So 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:42.880 this week more than any other week, as I said, 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:45.480 you'll want to wait for as much information as possible 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:48.000 before placing your best. But with that said, Sean, before 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.000 we get into it, I do want to ask, because 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:52.320 this week is so wonky and lines have moved so 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:54.360 much already, have you been able to lock in any 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:57.760 numbers early in the week before things kind of corrected themselves. 0:01:58.080 --> 0:02:00.640 Yeah, so early in the week. You know, there's a 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:03.600 few teams that don't have much to play for, you know, 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:07.120 the Bills being one of them, the Vikings, and the Texans. 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:09.280 The Texans do have a little bit to play for 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:11.400 a I think they can move up a seed. But 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.680 when when they announced, Bill O'Brien said that they were gonna, 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:18.040 you know, play to win this week, the Lion was 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:21.359 up to Titans minus six, So I just I came 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:24.120 in hard on the Texans at plus six, just knowing 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:26.760 it was gonna it was gonna come down, get it 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:28.600 at the best number. So it's it's dropped down a 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:31.799 three and a half. So I wouldn't recommend taking them anymore. 0:02:31.840 --> 0:02:34.720 But you know, that's how Week seventeen is is when 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:36.359 you get announcement like that, it's usually why is to 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:39.000 just take the line before it drops. So I have 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:40.680 the Texans plus six and that's all I have at 0:02:40.720 --> 0:02:42.720 the moment. But the ones I'm gonna talk about today, 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.720 I'll likely have. I'm just waiting to see more information 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:46.720 before locking them in. 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:49.880 Yeah, the Texans in particular are in the weird situation 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:51.960 where I think they have the late game right, so 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:54.799 they might know whether or not they're locked in before 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:56.920 they even go because I think Kansas City plays the 0:02:57.000 --> 0:02:59.680 early game, if that's right, unless I'm misremembering, so they 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:02.640 may have. But either way, their game matters because it 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:05.200 affects you know, it could affect the Steelers, right, it 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:06.919 depends on whether or not the Titans win, and I 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:10.320 feel like teams in that situation generally play hard. Anyway. 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:12.200 For me, I kind of did the same thing where 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:14.160 when we were recording Monday, where we look ahead for 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:16.359 the early lines, I said that I was going to 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:18.359 hit the Bears who were getting seven. It was still 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.120 available at some books. A lot of books pull it 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:21.920 down during the game, but it was still available at 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:24.440 some books if it looked like the Vikings were going 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:26.520 to lose that game against Green Bay and essentially be 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:28.919 locked in. So I did. I hit it basically as 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:30.480 soon as that game ended. When it was up, So 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:33.000 I'm locked in at Chicago plus seven. The consensus line 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:35.240 is now Chicago plus one. I don't feel quite as 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:36.640 great about that, but I. 0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:40.080 Would you know, yeah, well, you you locked in six 0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:42.840 points of value there against potentially the closing number. 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:45.440 Yeah you did, of course, of course, of course, no, no, 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:47.720 in that sense, of course. You know, I haven't yet 0:03:47.760 --> 0:03:50.600 heard that the Vikings are resting the starters now anyway, 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.240 and they may want to get that ugly taste out 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:54.200 of their mouths and looking so futured off asily, but 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:56.760 obviously the value is there. But either way, that's sort 0:03:56.760 --> 0:03:58.560 of a lesson to be learned in monitoring the lines 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:00.680 as we go along. So before we get into this 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:03.200 week's picks, I'm just gonna quickly review what went down 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:05.520 last week during the show our guest Sean Green. He 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:07.400 hit on the Packers getting five and a half from 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:09.440 the Vikings, the Eagles getting one and a half from 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.760 the Cowboys, and Jamis Winston going over three hundred passing yards. 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:14.920 His only non win was a push on the Bucks 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:16.839 getting three from the Textan, So a pretty nice week 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:19.760 for Sean. I hit on all three of my best bets, 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:21.840 the Jets getting three from the Steelers, the Dolphins and 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:23.960 the Bengals over forty six and a half, and the 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:26.000 Cardinals getting nine and a half from the Seahawks. My 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:28.359 only miss was on Terry McLaurin going over one hundred 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:31.640 receiving yards, which was at plus one seventy for today. 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:33.120 As always, Sean and I are going to start with 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:35.280 the pick six, where we each give our three best 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:38.120 bets either against the spread or on the over. Under Sean, 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:39.240 why don't you get us started here? 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:42.240 So I'll just get started with a pretty meaningless game 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:46.120 the Browns and Bengals. I'm eyeing the over on this matchup. 0:04:46.480 --> 0:04:49.159 My model likes the over environment for this game. It's 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:53.920 projected to be the sixth fastest pace matchup. There's a 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:57.080 ton of explosive play potential. It's actually my highest projection 0:04:57.160 --> 0:04:59.400 in that regard. This week. You know, the Bengals have 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:02.640 allowed you know, the fourth highest explosive run play rate 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:06.200 and second highest exposive pass play rate. So I think 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.240 the Browns, you know, this will be a game where 0:05:08.320 --> 0:05:09.960 the Browns wont to end on a good note. They've 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:14.160 struggled this year, so I could see Baker Chubb, O'Dell Beckham, 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:17.480 and Jarvis LANs y'all having big games here. The Bengals. 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:19.560 They should be without William Jackson this week. He was 0:05:19.600 --> 0:05:21.560 placed on an ir. He did a good job chuting 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:24.240 down Odell just three games ago. They played, so he'll 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:27.479 be out. So that's going to prove the matchup. You know, 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:29.920 Miles Garrett is obviously out for the Browns, but they 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:33.320 they have Sheldon Richardson and Olivia Vernon are also questionable. 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:35.440 So this is just a game that, you know, especially 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:38.200 when it's meaningless, we could just see a sneaky shootout. 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:41.320 The only reason I'm waiting to bet this is it 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:44.080 opened at forty six. It's it's been hit pretty hard 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:46.600 on the under. Sixty three percent of the money has 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:48.040 come in on the under. I think that's due to 0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:50.919 the weather report. It looks like there's a ninety percent 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:54.600 chance of rain. I typically don't bet based on any 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.000 weather report more than seventy two hours before the game, 0:05:57.440 --> 0:06:00.279 so in situations like this, the market can actually over 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:03.600 correct and give some pretty good value. So if the 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:05.599 weather report looks like it's going to clear up a bit, 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:08.240 I'll come in hard on the over, or just when 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.720 it seems like the line will reach its low point, 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:13.040 which it could be right around forty three and a half. 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:14.359 Y No, I'm gonna come in the over, but this 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:16.480 one I'm just waiting to see until I get the 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:18.279 best number out of curiosity. 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:21.720 How much does a game like that's gonna see, you know, 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:25.000 unless it's torrential downpours? How long? Does how much this 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:27.520 heavy rain impact whether or not you want to hit 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:28.880 the over because for me, I always think of it 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:31.559 more as you know, really windy days are are stuff 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:33.920 that can really affect the passing game or the kicking game. 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:37.200 But I never know how much to incorporate rain necessarily 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:38.839 into whether or not I want to bet the over under. 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:40.560 Does it move it significantly in your mind what you 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:40.919 want to do? 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:45.240 Usually not rain. Wind is definitely a big factor. Rain 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:46.960 not so much, And I think it always you know, 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.680 it always comes out of the matchup in this game. 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:51.599 If if they do run the ball more, it's not 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:54.280 that big of a deal. We saw Joe mix in 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:56.880 last week struggle a bit. He came into the game 0:06:56.880 --> 0:06:59.080 with the stomach above. He should be, you know, closer 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:01.479 to one hundred percent this week, but he lit up 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:03.960 the Browns just a few weeks ago, ran the ball 0:07:04.000 --> 0:07:05.920 twenty three times for one hundred and forty six yards 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:07.880 in a touchdown. On the other side of the ball. 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:10.680 We all know that Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt can 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:12.720 rack up yards, so in this matchup, even if it 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:15.240 is pretty rainy, I think the you know, the rushing 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:18.080 offense versus the rushing defense is a pretty good matchup, 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:21.080 so I think that again, there's still sneaky play on 0:07:21.120 --> 0:07:23.960 the over even if the weather is pretty inclement. But 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:26.680 we'll have time to kind of get a better forecast 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:29.320 closer to the game. So it looks like it is 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:31.280 going to be bad that this number could drop to 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:33.240 you know, forty one and a half or something like that. 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:37.240 So I just think the market is typically get overcorrect 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:40.280 in a matchup like this, so I'm just letting it do. 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.200 It's you know, lower as much as possible. And they've 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:46.640 actually passed through some key numbers when it comes to totals, 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:49.600 a number like forty four, forty three, those are some 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:52.040 of the key numbers I look for, so it's already 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:54.880 moved down to that range. So I think it's providing 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:56.240 a ton of value now, but I just want to 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:56.760 wait and see. 0:07:56.920 --> 0:07:58.920 Yeah, absolutely right now, it's sitting at forty three and 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:00.960 a half in our consensus, but it has been moving 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:03.320 all week, so certainly can wait till closer to game 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:05.880 time to see where it ends up. For my first pick, 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:08.920 I am going to take the Falcons and the Bucks 0:08:09.160 --> 0:08:10.280 under forty eight. 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:10.440 Now. 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:12.160 The Bucks have been a pretty good overplay for the 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.680 majority of the season, but obviously there are some differences 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:16.680 in the team now, the biggest being the loss of 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:20.000 both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But their secondary has 0:08:20.120 --> 0:08:22.560 quietly started to play a lot better. Carlton Davis has 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:24.480 really improved as the season has kind of long. You 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:27.080 saw it last week with DeAndre Hopkins. And they've been 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:28.920 able to stop the run all year. Everybody knows that, 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:31.600 but it's not just being able to stop the running game. 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:34.200 It's they've been really elite at stopping passes to the 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:36.600 running backs too, And that's really a big deal when 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:38.360 you have Vonta Freeman because that's what he's been doing 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:40.600 a lot for most of the season. So you know, 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:42.720 you know the Falcons are going to get Julio his 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.840 fourteen hundred yards. He needs about eighty four yards. They are. 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:48.240 Austin Hooper's there, but I'm not really sure what else 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:51.960 they're gonna do offensively. I think Christian Blake is the 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.440 second wide receiver. I know he's out there. I've looked 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:57.800 at him, but he's just not really getting targeted whatsoever. 0:08:57.960 --> 0:08:59.960 It's an outdoor game. The Falcons aren't quite a shit 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:01.720 about doors, so I don't see this as a huge 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:04.280 game for their offense. On the other side, it just 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:05.840 kind of is what it is at this point for 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:08.800 the Bucks offense. Prashad Perriman and Justin Watson, they're just 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:11.120 not the same as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Even 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:13.400 more than that, though, you really look at the Falcons defense, 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:15.920 I feel like it's really turned around. In the second half. 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:18.679 Last year, they allowed twenty six point four points per 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:21.559 game before the bye. This year, they were allowing more 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:23.920 than thirty one points per game. Then coming out of 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:25.679 the by you heard that there was this report that 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:27.640 Dan Quinn was giving up the play calling duties on 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:30.079 the defense. Since then, they're giving up only about eighteen 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:32.080 points per game. And it's not like that's just an 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:34.880 easy schedule. They've played the Saints twice, for example, so 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:36.760 part of it is that they got a little healthier too. 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:39.400 But for whatever reason, they're playing well, they're playing hard. 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:41.640 And I could also see Julio Jones kind of taking 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:43.880 a seat here. He's always injured, he's you know, fighting 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:46.200 through injury pretty much the whole year. Once against to 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:48.520 his fourteen hundred yards, I could see him taking a 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:50.760 seat here. So for me, you know, the Bucks over 0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:52.720 has been a good play for the majority of the season. 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:55.360 For me, I like the under here at forty eight. 0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:58.720 Yeah, I think that's a great play. Actually, before the 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:01.000 opening lines came out, I had this game projected at 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:03.720 forty eight. That's where I think the over under probably 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:05.439 should have been. And when it opened at fifteen and 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:07.360 a half, I didn't jump in it right away because 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:10.400 I thought, you know, everybody would be attacking the over 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:12.600 here and it might bump up to like fifty one 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:14.319 to fifty one and a half or something. Boy was 0:10:14.360 --> 0:10:17.199 I wrong it. Yeah, the mark hat definitely corrected in 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.320 the right direction. So now it's you know, forty eight 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:21.440 forty seven and a half. So yeah, I would say 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:23.400 the value shot now. But I do do like the 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:24.839 under in this game. Yeah. 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:26.920 I saw it at forty seven actually earlier, and I 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:28.640 was like, oh no, But then it seems to have 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:30.120 corrected it. Stuff. So it has been bat a lot 0:10:30.160 --> 0:10:32.000 of these lines, that's the thing. More so than any 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:34.040 other week. I feel like the lines are completely all 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:36.320 over the place, yep, but it's fun. So what's your 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:37.160 second pick here, Sean? 0:10:37.400 --> 0:10:39.400 So this game, I'm I'm probably not going to take 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:42.360 the Chargers before the game starts, I've I've lost enough 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:44.800 money on them this year. They've just been a tease 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:48.240 this year, very frustrating team. They're way better than their 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:53.000 five and ten record. Their Pythagoraythereum expected record is actually 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:56.080 seven point six wins and seven point four losses. A 0:10:56.080 --> 0:10:58.560 lot of that's due to their two to nine record 0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:01.760 and one game one score game. You can make a 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.439 case that's due to poor coaching, but typically teams regress 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.400 to you know, winning those games half the time. But 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:10.320 you know, I've always said that they don't really have 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:13.240 much of a home field advantage since moving here in 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:15.240 la I actually lived down the street from the stadium, 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:17.600 so I've known about this for a while that we 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.200 don't really have the most loyal fans, so it's usually 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:23.840 mostly just you know, teams rooting for the way fans 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:26.400 rooting for the way team. We saw Philip Rivers have 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:28.520 to do a silent count last week at home, so 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:31.760 they're fourteen and seven against the spread on the road 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.160 since moving here. So I think people still overlook that 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:37.640 quite a bit. Having said that, this isn't a game 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:40.240 I'm going to take before the game starts, because as 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:44.280 this game plays, I'll be looking at the Patriots Dolphins game. 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:47.840 So I think if the Patriots get off to you know, 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:50.160 a fast start there and they get you know, a 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:53.640 fourteen plus lead in that game, we could see the 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:57.559 Chiefs pull back a little bit, potentially sit Patrick Mahomes. 0:11:57.600 --> 0:11:59.760 I'm not saying that's likely, but that's just a potential 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:02.840 we have to look for. But also, you know, the 0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:05.760 Chargers in general typically get off to a slow start. 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:10.280 So Philip Rivers in his first ten pass attempts this year, 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:13.600 he's had a three eight to seven touchdown interception ratio 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:16.120 with the QB rating of seventy seven, and then the 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:19.680 rest of the game it improves to eighteen touchdown to 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:22.400 eleven picks ratio with the QB rating of ninety five 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:26.080 point two. So he does improve as the game goes. 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:28.360 And this is a game where I'm expecting the in 0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:30.840 game line could move up to you know, say ten 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:33.800 and a half to seventeen and a half, and they're 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:36.400 they're more likely to do, you know, pull off the 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:38.440 back door cover in that situation, So I'm not gonna 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.000 take him plus nine to start when we get more 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:43.960 value in game, and that's that's when where you'll want 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:46.480 to monitor other games to see how a team like 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:48.960 the Chiefs could start to pull back as the game 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:49.280 goes on. 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:51.880 Yeah, the only thing they have right in there is 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.120 the possibility of getting the two seed. I mean I could, 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:56.000 I guess I could lose. As we talked about today, 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:58.719 they could switch to the fourth seed as well. If 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:00.120 the Texans win and they lose. 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:02.240 Right yeah, yeah, I think that is a possibility. 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.280 But I think the Texans play later again, so they're 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:05.719 really and that's not a big deal. I mean, you 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:07.240 don't want to play Buffalo if you can avoid it. 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.720 But regardless, it is really about getting the buy. And 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:12.800 if the Patriots destroy the Dolphins, as I think most 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.520 people expect them to do, then you could certainly see 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:17.480 them pulling back. So I like that call as well. 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:19.880 I don't have a great feel for it, as you know, 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:21.600 as you mentioned at the start of the game. Right now, 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.720 it's certainly not a game that I'm looking It's bounced 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:25.520 back and forth between eight and a half and nine 0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:27.720 and a half, kind of all week, but I like 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:30.160 the in game plan that for my second one. I 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:31.680 don't know if you're gonna like this one, Shohn, So 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:33.680 I'm going to listen to what you have to say, 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:36.040 but I'm going to take the Broncos laying three and 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:38.120 a half here to the Raiders. Now, it's at three 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:39.880 in a couple of books, so if you can get 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:41.760 it there, I much prefer it there. But even with 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:44.520 the hook, I'll still take it. The Raiders. They have 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.200 this legitimate chance they hit on this ridiculous thing where 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:48.640 like ten things are going to fall their way and 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.040 they somehow make the playoffs. But I don't think it's 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.760 going to happen, and I think that if all else fails, 0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:56.320 it's not gonna happen, because I think the Raiders are 0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:57.719 going to lose this game, and they're going to lose 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.120 it by more than three points. The Broncos are not 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:02.520 a bad football team. They could have easily been in 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:04.600 the mix of a few things went their way earlier. 0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.560 Drew Locke is competent. They're leaning on Philip Lindsay more, 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:09.719 Courtlin Suttons, one of the more talented wide receivers in 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:12.760 the game. Their defense is solid. They're capable of putting 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:14.960 up some points, especially against a team like the Raiders 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:18.600 that are thirtieth and weighted defensive DVOA and offensively. The 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:20.840 Raiders are just they're down some key pieces. They did 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:23.600 get Hunter Renfro back, but it's still unclear if Josh 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:25.480 Jacobs is going to play. You had some minor leg 0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:28.600 procedure yesterday. Apparently it was just for an infection. I'm 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.680 not sure about his availability, but he obviously has the 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:33.960 shoulder injury. Trent Brown is now on IR Richie Incognito 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:35.480 missed last week. I don't know if he's going to 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:37.480 be back here. So their line has kind of been 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.040 their strength all seasons. So without those guys it really 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:42.520 hurts them. And I get that it's a narrative, but 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.320 Derek Carr does not play well in cold weather. I 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:47.400 think his teams are two and eleven or two and 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:50.920 twelve when the weather's under fifty degrees. I've lost count 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:52.760 at this point. It's a high of thirty seven in 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:55.240 Denver on Sunday. It's a tough place to play anyway. 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:57.960 It's their second divisional game. The Broncos surely want to 0:14:57.960 --> 0:14:59.920 go out on a high. Note, especially after losing to 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.720 the Raiders in Week one, and even if the Raiders 0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:06.160 like just you know, from a very public perspective, the 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:08.200 Raiders are like, well, they might have a chance of 0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:10.760 the playoffs and the Broncos don't. So you know, don't 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:13.120 you want to favor that team? I think you know, 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:15.960 more often than not, these teams come out that are 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.640 out of it and they play really hard. Guys are 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:21.160 playing for jobs. I think they want to win after 0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:22.960 they got embarrassed a little bit in that opening game, 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:24.800 so I think they're going to play hard here. So 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:27.520 for me, I'm interested here because I have a feeling 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:29.120 you might not agree, but I will take the Broncos 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:30.400 length three and a half to the Raiders. 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:32.880 No, I like the call. That's a game where I'm 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:36.000 probably staying away from. It's really tough betting on a 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.320 team that doesn't have anything to play for. But I 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:42.080 forgot the theory. But you know, the Raiders fall under 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:44.200 it where you know they're a bad team. It's almost 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:46.600 a miracle they even have a chance for a playoff 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:50.480 birth here. But you know, a team like that, there's 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:54.560 a reason they're fighting for a playoff spot. So those 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.360 teams are more likely to have a letdown game, so 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:00.320 I think they will be a popular bet. Looks like 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.040 about sixty five to seventy percent of the action has 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.080 come in on them, and you know, the Broncos are 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:07.760 still laying a key number like three and a half, 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.080 So I think there is some sharp action on the Broncos. 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:13.640 And like you said, I think the Broncos are very underrated. 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:16.520 They if they make a couple splash landings in the offseason, 0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:19.400 they could be sort of the twenty nineteen Browns going 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:22.800 into next year. You know, hopefully it doesn't turn out 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:25.280 that partly, but I think they have a lot of 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:27.920 pieces in place. Drew Locke has impressed me. He's been 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:29.840 a lot better than I thought he'd be. So this 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.120 is another game where, yeah, I think they'll try to 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:33.920 have a statement game heading in the next year. So 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:36.680 even though they don't have much to play for, they 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:38.360 don't have anything to play for for the playoffs, I 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:40.200