Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady.
Speaker 1: It is time to break down some of our favorite
Speaker 1: and our least favorite bets for the final regular season
Speaker 1: week of the twenty nineteen NFL season. And with me
Speaker 1: to talk about it all is Sean Corner, director of
Speaker 1: predictive Analytics over at the Action Network. Sean is renowned
Speaker 1: for his incredibly accurate projections for the NFL, which nearly
Speaker 1: always leads to him being at the top of the
Speaker 1: charts for the Fantasy pros Accuracy competition for Fantasy football,
Speaker 1: but he is also near the top of the charts
Speaker 1: for the Betting Pros Accuracy competition, so you're in good hands.
Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker. Sean.
Speaker 1: Thanks for coming on the show. How's it going?
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for having me. It's going well, And you know,
Speaker 2: we were just mentioning this before we went on air,
Speaker 2: but I think Week seventeen is define my favorite in
Speaker 2: terms of just betting and daily fantasy and player props
Speaker 2: and stuff. So looking forward to joining you this week specifically.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we talk about it a little bit in that
Speaker 1: Week seventeen is kind of its own animal, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: every week you can make your bets. This week we're
Speaker 1: really try.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: It's a lot more based on gut field than it
Speaker 1: is on the raw number. So we are recording this
Speaker 1: on Thursday, as we always do with the show, but
Speaker 1: unlike usual, it's the day after Christmas. So that means
Speaker 1: two things. First, I think it's safe to say that
Speaker 1: we haven't had quite the same amount of time to
Speaker 1: do our full analysis of this weekend's games as we
Speaker 1: ordinarily would. And second, I'm not really sure how much
Speaker 1: that matters because it's week seventeen and you can't really
Speaker 1: analyze it like a normal week. We also can't possibly
Speaker 1: have all the necessary information as to who's going to
Speaker 1: start or sit, which would otherwise impact our analysis. So
Speaker 1: this week more than any other week, as I said,
Speaker 1: you'll want to wait for as much information as possible
Speaker 1: before placing your best. But with that said, Sean, before
Speaker 1: we get into it, I do want to ask, because
Speaker 1: this week is so wonky and lines have moved so
Speaker 1: much already, have you been able to lock in any
Speaker 1: numbers early in the week before things kind of corrected themselves.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so early in the week. You know, there's a
Speaker 2: few teams that don't have much to play for, you know,
Speaker 2: the Bills being one of them, the Vikings, and the Texans.
Speaker 2: The Texans do have a little bit to play for
Speaker 2: a I think they can move up a seed. But
Speaker 2: when when they announced, Bill O'Brien said that they were gonna,
Speaker 2: you know, play to win this week, the Lion was
Speaker 2: up to Titans minus six, So I just I came
Speaker 2: in hard on the Texans at plus six, just knowing
Speaker 2: it was gonna it was gonna come down, get it
Speaker 2: at the best number. So it's it's dropped down a
Speaker 2: three and a half. So I wouldn't recommend taking them anymore.
Speaker 2: But you know, that's how Week seventeen is is when
Speaker 2: you get announcement like that, it's usually why is to
Speaker 2: just take the line before it drops. So I have
Speaker 2: the Texans plus six and that's all I have at
Speaker 2: the moment. But the ones I'm gonna talk about today,
Speaker 2: I'll likely have. I'm just waiting to see more information
Speaker 2: before locking them in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Texans in particular are in the weird situation
Speaker 1: where I think they have the late game right, so
Speaker 1: they might know whether or not they're locked in before
Speaker 1: they even go because I think Kansas City plays the
Speaker 1: early game, if that's right, unless I'm misremembering, so they
Speaker 1: may have. But either way, their game matters because it
Speaker 1: affects you know, it could affect the Steelers, right, it
Speaker 1: depends on whether or not the Titans win, and I
Speaker 1: feel like teams in that situation generally play hard. Anyway.
Speaker 1: For me, I kind of did the same thing where
Speaker 1: when we were recording Monday, where we look ahead for
Speaker 1: the early lines, I said that I was going to
Speaker 1: hit the Bears who were getting seven. It was still
Speaker 1: available at some books. A lot of books pull it
Speaker 1: down during the game, but it was still available at
Speaker 1: some books if it looked like the Vikings were going
Speaker 1: to lose that game against Green Bay and essentially be
Speaker 1: locked in. So I did. I hit it basically as
Speaker 1: soon as that game ended. When it was up, So
Speaker 1: I'm locked in at Chicago plus seven. The consensus line
Speaker 1: is now Chicago plus one. I don't feel quite as
Speaker 1: great about that, but I.
Speaker 2: Would you know, yeah, well, you you locked in six
Speaker 2: points of value there against potentially the closing number.
Speaker 1: Yeah you did, of course, of course, of course, no, no,
Speaker 1: in that sense, of course. You know, I haven't yet
Speaker 1: heard that the Vikings are resting the starters now anyway,
Speaker 1: and they may want to get that ugly taste out
Speaker 1: of their mouths and looking so futured off asily, but
Speaker 1: obviously the value is there. But either way, that's sort
Speaker 1: of a lesson to be learned in monitoring the lines
Speaker 1: as we go along. So before we get into this
Speaker 1: week's picks, I'm just gonna quickly review what went down
Speaker 1: last week during the show our guest Sean Green. He
Speaker 1: hit on the Packers getting five and a half from
Speaker 1: the Vikings, the Eagles getting one and a half from
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, and Jamis Winston going over three hundred passing yards.
Speaker 1: His only non win was a push on the Bucks
Speaker 1: getting three from the Textan, So a pretty nice week
Speaker 1: for Sean. I hit on all three of my best bets,
Speaker 1: the Jets getting three from the Steelers, the Dolphins and
Speaker 1: the Bengals over forty six and a half, and the
Speaker 1: Cardinals getting nine and a half from the Seahawks. My
Speaker 1: only miss was on Terry McLaurin going over one hundred
Speaker 1: receiving yards, which was at plus one seventy for today.
Speaker 1: As always, Sean and I are going to start with
Speaker 1: the pick six, where we each give our three best
Speaker 1: bets either against the spread or on the over. Under Sean,
Speaker 1: why don't you get us started here?
Speaker 2: So I'll just get started with a pretty meaningless game
Speaker 2: the Browns and Bengals. I'm eyeing the over on this matchup.
Speaker 2: My model likes the over environment for this game. It's
Speaker 2: projected to be the sixth fastest pace matchup. There's a
Speaker 2: ton of explosive play potential. It's actually my highest projection
Speaker 2: in that regard. This week. You know, the Bengals have
Speaker 2: allowed you know, the fourth highest explosive run play rate
Speaker 2: and second highest exposive pass play rate. So I think
Speaker 2: the Browns, you know, this will be a game where
Speaker 2: the Browns wont to end on a good note. They've
Speaker 2: struggled this year, so I could see Baker Chubb, O'Dell Beckham,
Speaker 2: and Jarvis LANs y'all having big games here. The Bengals.
Speaker 2: They should be without William Jackson this week. He was
Speaker 2: placed on an ir. He did a good job chuting
Speaker 2: down Odell just three games ago. They played, so he'll
Speaker 2: be out. So that's going to prove the matchup. You know,
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett is obviously out for the Browns, but they
Speaker 2: they have Sheldon Richardson and Olivia Vernon are also questionable.
Speaker 2: So this is just a game that, you know, especially
Speaker 2: when it's meaningless, we could just see a sneaky shootout.
Speaker 2: The only reason I'm waiting to bet this is it
Speaker 2: opened at forty six. It's it's been hit pretty hard
Speaker 2: on the under. Sixty three percent of the money has
Speaker 2: come in on the under. I think that's due to
Speaker 2: the weather report. It looks like there's a ninety percent
Speaker 2: chance of rain. I typically don't bet based on any
Speaker 2: weather report more than seventy two hours before the game,
Speaker 2: so in situations like this, the market can actually over
Speaker 2: correct and give some pretty good value. So if the
Speaker 2: weather report looks like it's going to clear up a bit,
Speaker 2: I'll come in hard on the over, or just when
Speaker 2: it seems like the line will reach its low point,
Speaker 2: which it could be right around forty three and a half.
Speaker 2: Y No, I'm gonna come in the over, but this
Speaker 2: one I'm just waiting to see until I get the
Speaker 2: best number out of curiosity.
Speaker 1: How much does a game like that's gonna see, you know,
Speaker 1: unless it's torrential downpours? How long? Does how much this
Speaker 1: heavy rain impact whether or not you want to hit
Speaker 1: the over because for me, I always think of it
Speaker 1: more as you know, really windy days are are stuff
Speaker 1: that can really affect the passing game or the kicking game.
Speaker 1: But I never know how much to incorporate rain necessarily
Speaker 1: into whether or not I want to bet the over under.
Speaker 1: Does it move it significantly in your mind what you
Speaker 1: want to do?
Speaker 2: Usually not rain. Wind is definitely a big factor. Rain
Speaker 2: not so much, And I think it always you know,
Speaker 2: it always comes out of the matchup in this game.
Speaker 2: If if they do run the ball more, it's not
Speaker 2: that big of a deal. We saw Joe mix in
Speaker 2: last week struggle a bit. He came into the game
Speaker 2: with the stomach above. He should be, you know, closer
Speaker 2: to one hundred percent this week, but he lit up
Speaker 2: the Browns just a few weeks ago, ran the ball
Speaker 2: twenty three times for one hundred and forty six yards
Speaker 2: in a touchdown. On the other side of the ball.
Speaker 2: We all know that Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt can
Speaker 2: rack up yards, so in this matchup, even if it
Speaker 2: is pretty rainy, I think the you know, the rushing
Speaker 2: offense versus the rushing defense is a pretty good matchup,
Speaker 2: so I think that again, there's still sneaky play on
Speaker 2: the over even if the weather is pretty inclement. But
Speaker 2: we'll have time to kind of get a better forecast
Speaker 2: closer to the game. So it looks like it is
Speaker 2: going to be bad that this number could drop to
Speaker 2: you know, forty one and a half or something like that.
Speaker 2: So I just think the market is typically get overcorrect
Speaker 2: in a matchup like this, so I'm just letting it do.
Speaker 2: It's you know, lower as much as possible. And they've
Speaker 2: actually passed through some key numbers when it comes to totals,
Speaker 2: a number like forty four, forty three, those are some
Speaker 2: of the key numbers I look for, so it's already
Speaker 2: moved down to that range. So I think it's providing
Speaker 2: a ton of value now, but I just want to
Speaker 2: wait and see.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely right now, it's sitting at forty three and
Speaker 1: a half in our consensus, but it has been moving
Speaker 1: all week, so certainly can wait till closer to game
Speaker 1: time to see where it ends up. For my first pick,
Speaker 1: I am going to take the Falcons and the Bucks
Speaker 1: under forty eight.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: The Bucks have been a pretty good overplay for the
Speaker 1: majority of the season, but obviously there are some differences
Speaker 1: in the team now, the biggest being the loss of
Speaker 1: both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But their secondary has
Speaker 1: quietly started to play a lot better. Carlton Davis has
Speaker 1: really improved as the season has kind of long. You
Speaker 1: saw it last week with DeAndre Hopkins. And they've been
Speaker 1: able to stop the run all year. Everybody knows that,
Speaker 1: but it's not just being able to stop the running game.
Speaker 1: It's they've been really elite at stopping passes to the
Speaker 1: running backs too, And that's really a big deal when
Speaker 1: you have Vonta Freeman because that's what he's been doing
Speaker 1: a lot for most of the season. So you know,
Speaker 1: you know the Falcons are going to get Julio his
Speaker 1: fourteen hundred yards. He needs about eighty four yards. They are.
Speaker 1: Austin Hooper's there, but I'm not really sure what else
Speaker 1: they're gonna do offensively. I think Christian Blake is the
Speaker 1: second wide receiver. I know he's out there. I've looked
Speaker 1: at him, but he's just not really getting targeted whatsoever.
Speaker 1: It's an outdoor game. The Falcons aren't quite a shit
Speaker 1: about doors, so I don't see this as a huge
Speaker 1: game for their offense. On the other side, it just
Speaker 1: kind of is what it is at this point for
Speaker 1: the Bucks offense. Prashad Perriman and Justin Watson, they're just
Speaker 1: not the same as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Even
Speaker 1: more than that, though, you really look at the Falcons defense,
Speaker 1: I feel like it's really turned around. In the second half.
Speaker 1: Last year, they allowed twenty six point four points per
Speaker 1: game before the bye. This year, they were allowing more
Speaker 1: than thirty one points per game. Then coming out of
Speaker 1: the by you heard that there was this report that
Speaker 1: Dan Quinn was giving up the play calling duties on
Speaker 1: the defense. Since then, they're giving up only about eighteen
Speaker 1: points per game. And it's not like that's just an
Speaker 1: easy schedule. They've played the Saints twice, for example, so
Speaker 1: part of it is that they got a little healthier too.
Speaker 1: But for whatever reason, they're playing well, they're playing hard.
Speaker 1: And I could also see Julio Jones kind of taking
Speaker 1: a seat here. He's always injured, he's you know, fighting
Speaker 1: through injury pretty much the whole year. Once against to
Speaker 1: his fourteen hundred yards, I could see him taking a
Speaker 1: seat here. So for me, you know, the Bucks over
Speaker 1: has been a good play for the majority of the season.
Speaker 1: For me, I like the under here at forty eight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a great play. Actually, before the
Speaker 2: opening lines came out, I had this game projected at
Speaker 2: forty eight. That's where I think the over under probably
Speaker 2: should have been. And when it opened at fifteen and
Speaker 2: a half, I didn't jump in it right away because
Speaker 2: I thought, you know, everybody would be attacking the over
Speaker 2: here and it might bump up to like fifty one
Speaker 2: to fifty one and a half or something. Boy was
Speaker 2: I wrong it. Yeah, the mark hat definitely corrected in
Speaker 2: the right direction. So now it's you know, forty eight
Speaker 2: forty seven and a half. So yeah, I would say
Speaker 2: the value shot now. But I do do like the
Speaker 2: under in this game. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I saw it at forty seven actually earlier, and I
Speaker 1: was like, oh no, But then it seems to have
Speaker 1: corrected it. Stuff. So it has been bat a lot
Speaker 1: of these lines, that's the thing. More so than any
Speaker 1: other week. I feel like the lines are completely all
Speaker 1: over the place, yep, but it's fun. So what's your
Speaker 1: second pick here, Sean?
Speaker 2: So this game, I'm I'm probably not going to take
Speaker 2: the Chargers before the game starts, I've I've lost enough
Speaker 2: money on them this year. They've just been a tease
Speaker 2: this year, very frustrating team. They're way better than their
Speaker 2: five and ten record. Their Pythagoraythereum expected record is actually
Speaker 2: seven point six wins and seven point four losses. A
Speaker 2: lot of that's due to their two to nine record
Speaker 2: and one game one score game. You can make a
Speaker 2: case that's due to poor coaching, but typically teams regress
Speaker 2: to you know, winning those games half the time. But
Speaker 2: you know, I've always said that they don't really have
Speaker 2: much of a home field advantage since moving here in
Speaker 2: la I actually lived down the street from the stadium,
Speaker 2: so I've known about this for a while that we
Speaker 2: don't really have the most loyal fans, so it's usually
Speaker 2: mostly just you know, teams rooting for the way fans
Speaker 2: rooting for the way team. We saw Philip Rivers have
Speaker 2: to do a silent count last week at home, so
Speaker 2: they're fourteen and seven against the spread on the road
Speaker 2: since moving here. So I think people still overlook that
Speaker 2: quite a bit. Having said that, this isn't a game
Speaker 2: I'm going to take before the game starts, because as
Speaker 2: this game plays, I'll be looking at the Patriots Dolphins game.
Speaker 2: So I think if the Patriots get off to you know,
Speaker 2: a fast start there and they get you know, a
Speaker 2: fourteen plus lead in that game, we could see the
Speaker 2: Chiefs pull back a little bit, potentially sit Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying that's likely, but that's just a potential
Speaker 2: we have to look for. But also, you know, the
Speaker 2: Chargers in general typically get off to a slow start.
Speaker 2: So Philip Rivers in his first ten pass attempts this year,
Speaker 2: he's had a three eight to seven touchdown interception ratio
Speaker 2: with the QB rating of seventy seven, and then the
Speaker 2: rest of the game it improves to eighteen touchdown to
Speaker 2: eleven picks ratio with the QB rating of ninety five
Speaker 2: point two. So he does improve as the game goes.
Speaker 2: And this is a game where I'm expecting the in
Speaker 2: game line could move up to you know, say ten
Speaker 2: and a half to seventeen and a half, and they're
Speaker 2: they're more likely to do, you know, pull off the
Speaker 2: back door cover in that situation, So I'm not gonna
Speaker 2: take him plus nine to start when we get more
Speaker 2: value in game, and that's that's when where you'll want
Speaker 2: to monitor other games to see how a team like
Speaker 2: the Chiefs could start to pull back as the game
Speaker 2: goes on.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the only thing they have right in there is
Speaker 1: the possibility of getting the two seed. I mean I could,
Speaker 1: I guess I could lose. As we talked about today,
Speaker 1: they could switch to the fourth seed as well. If
Speaker 1: the Texans win and they lose.
Speaker 2: Right yeah, yeah, I think that is a possibility.
Speaker 1: But I think the Texans play later again, so they're
Speaker 1: really and that's not a big deal. I mean, you
Speaker 1: don't want to play Buffalo if you can avoid it.
Speaker 1: But regardless, it is really about getting the buy. And
Speaker 1: if the Patriots destroy the Dolphins, as I think most
Speaker 1: people expect them to do, then you could certainly see
Speaker 1: them pulling back. So I like that call as well.
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for it, as you know,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned at the start of the game. Right now,
Speaker 1: it's certainly not a game that I'm looking It's bounced
Speaker 1: back and forth between eight and a half and nine
Speaker 1: and a half, kind of all week, but I like
Speaker 1: the in game plan that for my second one. I
Speaker 1: don't know if you're gonna like this one, Shohn, So
Speaker 1: I'm going to listen to what you have to say,
Speaker 1: but I'm going to take the Broncos laying three and
Speaker 1: a half here to the Raiders. Now, it's at three
Speaker 1: in a couple of books, so if you can get
Speaker 1: it there, I much prefer it there. But even with
Speaker 1: the hook, I'll still take it. The Raiders. They have
Speaker 1: this legitimate chance they hit on this ridiculous thing where
Speaker 1: like ten things are going to fall their way and
Speaker 1: they somehow make the playoffs. But I don't think it's
Speaker 1: going to happen, and I think that if all else fails,
Speaker 1: it's not gonna happen, because I think the Raiders are
Speaker 1: going to lose this game, and they're going to lose
Speaker 1: it by more than three points. The Broncos are not
Speaker 1: a bad football team. They could have easily been in
Speaker 1: the mix of a few things went their way earlier.
Speaker 1: Drew Locke is competent. They're leaning on Philip Lindsay more,
Speaker 1: Courtlin Suttons, one of the more talented wide receivers in
Speaker 1: the game. Their defense is solid. They're capable of putting
Speaker 1: up some points, especially against a team like the Raiders
Speaker 1: that are thirtieth and weighted defensive DVOA and offensively. The
Speaker 1: Raiders are just they're down some key pieces. They did
Speaker 1: get Hunter Renfro back, but it's still unclear if Josh
Speaker 1: Jacobs is going to play. You had some minor leg
Speaker 1: procedure yesterday. Apparently it was just for an infection. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure about his availability, but he obviously has the
Speaker 1: shoulder injury. Trent Brown is now on IR Richie Incognito
Speaker 1: missed last week. I don't know if he's going to
Speaker 1: be back here. So their line has kind of been
Speaker 1: their strength all seasons. So without those guys it really
Speaker 1: hurts them. And I get that it's a narrative, but
Speaker 1: Derek Carr does not play well in cold weather. I
Speaker 1: think his teams are two and eleven or two and
Speaker 1: twelve when the weather's under fifty degrees. I've lost count
Speaker 1: at this point. It's a high of thirty seven in
Speaker 1: Denver on Sunday. It's a tough place to play anyway.
Speaker 1: It's their second divisional game. The Broncos surely want to
Speaker 1: go out on a high. Note, especially after losing to
Speaker 1: the Raiders in Week one, and even if the Raiders
Speaker 1: like just you know, from a very public perspective, the
Speaker 1: Raiders are like, well, they might have a chance of
Speaker 1: the playoffs and the Broncos don't. So you know, don't
Speaker 1: you want to favor that team? I think you know,
Speaker 1: more often than not, these teams come out that are
Speaker 1: out of it and they play really hard. Guys are
Speaker 1: playing for jobs. I think they want to win after
Speaker 1: they got embarrassed a little bit in that opening game,
Speaker 1: so I think they're going to play hard here. So
Speaker 1: for me, I'm interested here because I have a feeling
Speaker 1: you might not agree, but I will take the Broncos
Speaker 1: length three and a half to the Raiders.
Speaker 2: No, I like the call. That's a game where I'm
Speaker 2: probably staying away from. It's really tough betting on a
Speaker 2: team that doesn't have anything to play for. But I
Speaker 2: forgot the theory. But you know, the Raiders fall under
Speaker 2: it where you know they're a bad team. It's almost
Speaker 2: a miracle they even have a chance for a playoff
Speaker 2: birth here. But you know, a team like that, there's
Speaker 2: a reason they're fighting for a playoff spot. So those
Speaker 2: teams are more likely to have a letdown game, so
Speaker 2: I think they will be a popular bet. Looks like
Speaker 2: about sixty five to seventy percent of the action has
Speaker 2: come in on them, and you know, the Broncos are
Speaker 2: still laying a key number like three and a half,
Speaker 2: So I think there is some sharp action on the Broncos.
Speaker 2: And like you said, I think the Broncos are very underrated.
Speaker 2: They if they make a couple splash landings in the offseason,
Speaker 2: they could be sort of the twenty nineteen Browns going
Speaker 2: into next year. You know, hopefully it doesn't turn out
Speaker 2: that partly, but I think they have a lot of
Speaker 2: pieces in place. Drew Locke has impressed me. He's been
Speaker 2: a lot better than I thought he'd be. So this
Speaker 2: is another game where, yeah, I think they'll try to
Speaker 2: have a statement game heading in the next year. So
Speaker 2: even though they don't have much to play for, they
Speaker 2: don't have anything to play for for the playoffs, I
Speaker 2: think this will be a game where they come out
Speaker 2: more motivated than people think.
Speaker 1: And I think you know, when they these lines are set,
Speaker 1: I think you know, the people who set the lines
Speaker 1: know that the public is going to be thinking about, oh,
Speaker 1: one team has a chance to play for something the
Speaker 1: other team doesn't, and so more of the money is
Speaker 1: going to come in on it. But like you said,
Speaker 1: the fact that the line's not moving, it's been at
Speaker 1: three and a half all week, I think says that
Speaker 1: it's probably more of a play.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And we've seen the Raiders have a massive letdown
Speaker 2: game in a spot like this before. I mean, they
Speaker 2: played the last game ever in Oakland and they let
Speaker 2: the Jaguars come back and beat them. So that just
Speaker 2: goes to show you that they would be the type
Speaker 2: of team that would have a letdown game in this
Speaker 2: exact spot.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, And you can't take anything away from the fact
Speaker 1: that they just destroyed the Chargers because that doesn't count,
Speaker 1: as he basically does exactly. All right, let's movo on
Speaker 1: to your last pick. What do you got?
Speaker 2: Okay, So this this game, it's a cluster injury situation.
Speaker 2: So the the Seahawks have had a brutal stretch where
Speaker 2: they lost for Sea Penny. Then last week they lost
Speaker 2: Chris Carson and CJ. Prosss. So a situation like that,
Speaker 2: I do I facor that in quite a bit. So
Speaker 2: I think they're they you know, probably Dock them off
Speaker 2: about a point, maybe a point and a half on
Speaker 2: the power rating. Now, they did bring in Marshawn Lynch
Speaker 2: and Robert Turbin, which you know is exciting from a
Speaker 2: DFS perspective, but you know, I think they'll fill in
Speaker 2: a bit. But I think Travis Homer will be the
Speaker 2: starting running back. But ultimately this game is gonna come
Speaker 2: down on Russell Wilson's shoulders. So I like getting him
Speaker 2: at home here getting plus three and a half. I
Speaker 2: thought the Niners had probably closed maybe one and a
Speaker 2: half to two point favorite here, but three and a
Speaker 2: half is just way too much on the road. Russell
Speaker 2: Wilson's only been a home underdog seven times in his
Speaker 2: career and he's six and one, so I just think,
Speaker 2: you know, getting him here at home is just a
Speaker 2: clutch game like this. This is definitely my play of
Speaker 2: the week. So while I'm avoiding most of the games
Speaker 2: because they're involving teams with nothing to play for, this
Speaker 2: is the This is the one game I'm treating straight
Speaker 2: up and feel pretty good about.
Speaker 1: You know, I wonder whether or not this might be
Speaker 1: beneficial to the Seahawks who have all these injuries at
Speaker 1: running back because no matter what, they're not going to
Speaker 1: give the same number of carries. Even however, the backfield,
Speaker 1: you know, shakes out with the three running backs, so
Speaker 1: I can't imagine they're going to run it as much
Speaker 1: as they were when you had Carson and Penny and
Speaker 1: even pro Sise. So I think putting the game more
Speaker 1: in Russell Wilson's hands, even though the Niners are probably
Speaker 1: a little more exploitable on the ground, I think that's
Speaker 1: only a good thing for Seattle. And you know, the
Speaker 1: game against Arizona, I just feel like they were, you know,
Speaker 1: as much as they had the injuries, I feel like
Speaker 1: they were just kind of looking past it. I feel
Speaker 1: like they were just looking at this game, and as
Speaker 1: much as it affected, you know, the seating that they'll
Speaker 1: get if they win the division, I think they were
Speaker 1: just looking at this game. So I like the call.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I if I can do it. Honestly,
Speaker 1: it's something where I think there is value, but I've
Speaker 1: had trouble pulling the trigger on it. And again I
Speaker 1: agree with you. I expected it to be closer. I
Speaker 1: think it might have been two and a half at
Speaker 1: one point, but it's basically been sitting now at three
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: Well they've yeah, they've been just getting killed, I would say.
Speaker 2: So it looks like they're seventy five percent of the
Speaker 2: tickets and eighty two percent of the money that was
Speaker 2: just you know, just sheer money and ticket action coming in,
Speaker 2: so they had to move it past key number. So right,
Speaker 2: we'll see going forward. If it stays at three and
Speaker 2: a half, that might worry me. But I think Sharps
Speaker 2: are going to come in on the three and a
Speaker 2: half pretty soon.
Speaker 1: All right, I like it. For my final pick, I'm
Speaker 1: going to take. This is so much more of a
Speaker 1: narrative play. But we're in week seventeen. I'm going to
Speaker 1: take the Ravens and Steelers. When I took it the
Speaker 1: under it was thirty eight. It now our consensus is
Speaker 1: thirty seven, So whatever, I don't care, I'll taking It'll
Speaker 1: be twenty five. I'll take it. I talked about this
Speaker 1: when we took an early look at the lines back
Speaker 1: on Monday. There's always a worry with a defensive score
Speaker 1: or two. With this matchup, both defenses are excellent, even
Speaker 1: with some Ravens resting here on the defensive side. But
Speaker 1: outside of that, It's really tough to see this getting
Speaker 1: even to this number of thirty sevens. The Steelers are
Speaker 1: so abysmal offensively. I mean, Duck Hodges would not be
Speaker 1: in there if Mason Rudolph were healthy. The alternative now
Speaker 1: is Paxton Lynch. James Connor misspractice again today. I'm sure
Speaker 1: he's going to miss this game. We don't know who's
Speaker 1: going to be on the defense for the Ravens. I
Speaker 1: think the only thing we do know for sure is
Speaker 1: Brandon Williams is not going to play. That obviously hurts
Speaker 1: the run defense. But again, if it's Benny Snell leading
Speaker 1: the way, the Ravens can't possibly fear Hodges. It's not
Speaker 1: like I expect them to be able to run all
Speaker 1: over the Ravens. More importantly, we have talked about this
Speaker 1: a couple of times on this podcast before. John Harbaugh
Speaker 1: does not like to lose. He crushes in the preseason.
Speaker 1: He does not want to lose this game to the Steelers,
Speaker 1: maybe let them into the playoffs. He wants to win.
Speaker 1: So whoever is out there, he is going to play
Speaker 1: to win the game. The Steelers have an outstanding all
Speaker 1: around defense, and we know there's no Mark Ingram, there's
Speaker 1: no Lamar Jackson. I'm sure there are going to be
Speaker 1: a couple of other offensive starters who are going to sit.
Speaker 1: RG three is probably going to run the exact same
Speaker 1: type of offense, which means there's going to be a
Speaker 1: lot on the ground. It's going to eat up the clock,
Speaker 1: probably try to avoid turnovers. It's hard to judge these
Speaker 1: games when you have a lot of backups in. But
Speaker 1: I mean, the totals for the Steelers last seven games
Speaker 1: is twenty nine, twenty eight, twenty six, thirty three, forty
Speaker 1: twenty seven and twenty six. It's not all that much
Speaker 1: rocket science. I think Tomlin is going to try to
Speaker 1: keep Hodges from losing the game. He'll probably play conservative,
Speaker 1: try to win it with his defense. So even at
Speaker 1: thirty seven, which is an abysmally low total, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: still ride with it and take the under thirty seven.
Speaker 1: I like it, Okay, I'll take it. That's all you
Speaker 1: gotta say. I will take it. All right, let's recap here, Sean,
Speaker 1: you're going to take the Bengals on the Browns over
Speaker 1: forty three and a half. You're obviously waiting till the
Speaker 1: end to see all all the shakes out. You're gonna
Speaker 1: take the Seahawks getting three and a half from the
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, and you're gonna almost certainly be popping
Speaker 1: an in game bet here on the Chargers or the
Speaker 1: Casey game. Once the Pats look like they may be
Speaker 1: running away with their game against the Dolphins. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take the Falcons in the Bucks under forty eight, the
Speaker 1: Broncos link three and a half to the Raiders, and
Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Steelers to go under the really
Speaker 1: small number of thirty seven. Now, before we move on
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Speaker 1: all right, John, it's sign for it's a trap where
Speaker 1: we each list one bet we are avoiding. I'm sure
Speaker 1: we have more than one, but go ahead and give
Speaker 1: me your number one that you're avoiding.
Speaker 2: So I'm avoiding betting on the Steelers Ravens spread. You know,
Speaker 2: at certain times this week I really liked the Ravens
Speaker 2: and other times I really like the Steelers. You kind
Speaker 2: of mentioned it. I think this is the type of
Speaker 2: game that the Steelers, you know, would be pretty good at.
Speaker 2: I think they would get away with the conservative game plan,
Speaker 2: sort of keep the ball out of Duck Hodge's hands,
Speaker 2: lean on the run game, lean on that strong defense,
Speaker 2: and just keep it close, and they should be able
Speaker 2: to pull it off against a Ravens team that's you know,
Speaker 2: resting a lot of key players. But I mean the
Speaker 2: advance line for this game, I probably would have this
Speaker 2: around man minus thirteen and a half or minus fourteen
Speaker 2: if everybody was active and trying for the Ravens. So
Speaker 2: a sixteen point line move as good as Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: is and some of the key players like mark Ingramar,
Speaker 2: I think that's a lot of points, you know. I
Speaker 2: think RG three and Gus Edwards will be fine. So
Speaker 2: it's just the game where I've been tempted to go
Speaker 2: either way. So I've just decided, Okay, that means I'm
Speaker 2: not going to bet either side. I'm just gonna enjoy
Speaker 2: this game, whether it's betting on player props or dfs.
Speaker 2: But I am not going to even try to take
Speaker 2: a side here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with you. I like the under
Speaker 1: because I don't expect I expect both teams to just
Speaker 1: kind of relax and lean on their defense. But I
Speaker 1: have no idea. I do not have a feel for
Speaker 1: this game. And it's one of many this week, and
Speaker 1: the one that I'm avoiding is the Cowboys laying ten
Speaker 1: and a half to the Redskins. I felt good about
Speaker 1: the Redskins earlier in the week, the line was a
Speaker 1: couple of points higher. I think case Keenum at this
Speaker 1: point is at worst a lateral move from Dwayne Haskins probably,
Speaker 1: you know, an upgrade, but the offensive line is really
Speaker 1: beat up. Terry McLaurin is still in the concussion protocol.
Speaker 1: Last I checked, I haven't seen anything yet from today.
Speaker 1: They're completely decimated in their secondary. Their corners are Aaron Colvin,
Speaker 1: Cody Sensebaal, and cam On Webster. You saw how easily
Speaker 1: the Giants carved them up last week, so it is
Speaker 1: really hard to see them stopping the Cowboys at all.
Speaker 1: But Dak Prescott does not look right, and it's a
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett led team. So I feel like that's seen
Speaker 1: the Princess Bride, where Zemi's explaining how because of X factor,
Speaker 1: I clearly can choose the wine in front of you.
Speaker 1: But then he goes through another factor and says, and
Speaker 1: so I clearly can choose the wine in front of me.
Speaker 1: And that's basically how I feel. I can't choose the
Speaker 1: Cowboys wine, can't choose the Redskins wine. I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: drink beer and be happier for it. So that's the
Speaker 1: game I'm avoiding. You are avoiding the Steelers laying two
Speaker 1: to the Ravens, and I'm avoiding the Cowboys lank ten
Speaker 1: and a half to the Redskins. So before we go
Speaker 1: into our final segment, I want to remind everyone about
Speaker 1: our giveaway, so signed Michael Thomas Saints helmet. You can
Speaker 1: go to betting Pros dot com slash contest for more details,
Speaker 1: but to enter, just leave a review for the show
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher, send a screenshot of that
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Speaker 1: let's finish up with top prop. What's your best player
Speaker 1: prop for this weekend?
Speaker 2: So you know, we were talking about this before we
Speaker 2: went on air, but week seventeen sportsbooks definitely like to
Speaker 2: hold off player props as long as possible. It's definitely
Speaker 2: the trickiest week for that market. There's only one player
Speaker 2: prop out there right now. It's Travis Homer's rushing yards.
Speaker 2: And I actually do like this prop. It opened up
Speaker 2: at forty two and a half, which I think is
Speaker 2: a pretty good line. I would set it closer to
Speaker 2: forty five and a half. I have Homer getting eleven
Speaker 2: point seven carries here. Pete Carroll mentioned, you know, he
Speaker 2: wants to kind of stick with the guy that's been there,
Speaker 2: so they mentioned they would lean on Travis Homer this game.
Speaker 2: I think Marshawn Lynch, you know, he will get sort
Speaker 2: of the short down goal line work, but Homer should
Speaker 2: get the carries between the twenties. And that's that's where
Speaker 2: a prop like this comes into play. Really, Robert Turbin,
Speaker 2: I'm assuming we'll just be nothing more than a change
Speaker 2: of pace back. So I like Homer getting over forty
Speaker 2: two and a half yards. And you know, since we've
Speaker 2: been on air, the line has dropped to thirty nine
Speaker 2: and a half. I think this is one of those
Speaker 2: things where people are they're just excited to see Beast
Speaker 2: mode Sunday night. So I think the Homer prop it
Speaker 2: could just go down. I think people will just expect
Speaker 2: Marshall Lench to just inherit a twenty Carrie roll or something.
Speaker 2: So it's rare that I do attack overs on player props,
Speaker 2: but I think this is one, especially at three and
Speaker 2: a half. I have I ran my assimulator on it,
Speaker 2: and I have them getting over that roughly fifty nine
Speaker 2: percent of the time. So there's quite a bit of
Speaker 2: value on this right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that one too. Yeah, I agree with
Speaker 1: you completely, by the way, with player propats, which I love,
Speaker 1: you know, probably more even than betting generally on the spread,
Speaker 1: the unders are usually where I like to hammer it
Speaker 1: because I almost always see more value there. Now on
Speaker 1: this we always talk about it. It's Thursday. There aren't
Speaker 1: that many props that are available in the market, and
Speaker 1: then that's especially true as you said this week, So
Speaker 1: more often than not, we are taking overs because that's
Speaker 1: what's available over at points bet, and that is what
Speaker 1: I'm going to do here. And I'm gonna take Christian
Speaker 1: McCaffrey to go over seventy five yards receiving, which is
Speaker 1: that even money over at points bet. Now, if you
Speaker 1: want the free square, take over fifty yards at minus
Speaker 1: two point fifty abstinente injury, that's gonna hit. He's sixty
Speaker 1: seven yards receiving away from a one thousand rushing yard
Speaker 1: one thousand receiving yards season. The coaching staff has already
Speaker 1: come out and basically said he is going to get it.
Speaker 1: That would only be the third time in history, joining
Speaker 1: only Roger Craig and Marshall Fock. So look, it's possible
Speaker 1: that his last reception gets him to seventy yards receiving
Speaker 1: and he's pulled. That's fine, but I'd probably drop a
Speaker 1: larger wager on going over the fifty yards, and I'd
Speaker 1: add one on the seventy five yards, just to you know,
Speaker 1: go for the bigger payout. But for me, I think
Speaker 1: there's almost no chance with a team like the Panthers
Speaker 1: that has nothing to play for it. There's also probably
Speaker 1: not gonna be Dj Moore in this game. They want
Speaker 1: McCaffrey to get over sixty seven yards, So I think
Speaker 1: over fifty is a lock and over seventy five is
Speaker 1: pretty close. All right, Sean, that's gonna do it for
Speaker 1: today's show. Thanks for joining me. Remind everybody where they
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your.
Speaker 2: Work, so you can find all my content on actionnetwork
Speaker 2: dot com and please follow me on Twitter at the
Speaker 2: Underscore Odds Maker. That's where I know set lines for
Speaker 2: random things or give fantasy advice, and that's where I
Speaker 2: post all my contents, so you can find all my
Speaker 2: work there as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, as I mentioned, Sean is one of the most
Speaker 1: accurate fantasy experts out there, so if you do play
Speaker 1: fantasy football, you should definitely follow him as well. Thanks
Speaker 1: again for coming on, Sean. Hopefully we can do it
Speaker 1: again soon.
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM.
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Speaker 1: week and everybody. We will be back next week talking
Speaker 1: about the playoffs.