1 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, 2 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 3 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. 4 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:17,599 Speaker 1: It is time to break down some of our favorite 5 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: and our least favorite bets for the final regular season 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: week of the twenty nineteen NFL season. And with me 7 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: to talk about it all is Sean Corner, director of 8 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: predictive Analytics over at the Action Network. Sean is renowned 9 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 1: for his incredibly accurate projections for the NFL, which nearly 10 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: always leads to him being at the top of the 11 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: charts for the Fantasy pros Accuracy competition for Fantasy football, 12 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 1: but he is also near the top of the charts 13 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: for the Betting Pros Accuracy competition, so you're in good hands. 14 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker. Sean. 15 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: Thanks for coming on the show. How's it going? 16 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for having me. It's going well, And you know, 17 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: we were just mentioning this before we went on air, 18 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 2: but I think Week seventeen is define my favorite in 19 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 2: terms of just betting and daily fantasy and player props 20 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 2: and stuff. So looking forward to joining you this week specifically. 21 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, we talk about it a little bit in that 22 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 1: Week seventeen is kind of its own animal, right, I mean, 23 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: every week you can make your bets. This week we're 24 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: really try. 25 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 2: You know. 26 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 1: It's a lot more based on gut field than it 27 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 1: is on the raw number. So we are recording this 28 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: on Thursday, as we always do with the show, but 29 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 1: unlike usual, it's the day after Christmas. So that means 30 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 1: two things. First, I think it's safe to say that 31 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: we haven't had quite the same amount of time to 32 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: do our full analysis of this weekend's games as we 33 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: ordinarily would. And second, I'm not really sure how much 34 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: that matters because it's week seventeen and you can't really 35 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: analyze it like a normal week. We also can't possibly 36 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 1: have all the necessary information as to who's going to 37 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: start or sit, which would otherwise impact our analysis. So 38 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 1: this week more than any other week, as I said, 39 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: you'll want to wait for as much information as possible 40 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 1: before placing your best. But with that said, Sean, before 41 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: we get into it, I do want to ask, because 42 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: this week is so wonky and lines have moved so 43 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: much already, have you been able to lock in any 44 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: numbers early in the week before things kind of corrected themselves. 45 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, so early in the week. You know, there's a 46 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 2: few teams that don't have much to play for, you know, 47 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 2: the Bills being one of them, the Vikings, and the Texans. 48 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: The Texans do have a little bit to play for 49 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 2: a I think they can move up a seed. But 50 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 2: when when they announced, Bill O'Brien said that they were gonna, 51 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 2: you know, play to win this week, the Lion was 52 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 2: up to Titans minus six, So I just I came 53 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 2: in hard on the Texans at plus six, just knowing 54 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 2: it was gonna it was gonna come down, get it 55 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 2: at the best number. So it's it's dropped down a 56 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 2: three and a half. So I wouldn't recommend taking them anymore. 57 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 2: But you know, that's how Week seventeen is is when 58 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 2: you get announcement like that, it's usually why is to 59 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 2: just take the line before it drops. So I have 60 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 2: the Texans plus six and that's all I have at 61 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 2: the moment. But the ones I'm gonna talk about today, 62 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 2: I'll likely have. I'm just waiting to see more information 63 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 2: before locking them in. 64 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Texans in particular are in the weird situation 65 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 1: where I think they have the late game right, so 66 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 1: they might know whether or not they're locked in before 67 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 1: they even go because I think Kansas City plays the 68 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 1: early game, if that's right, unless I'm misremembering, so they 69 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 1: may have. But either way, their game matters because it 70 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 1: affects you know, it could affect the Steelers, right, it 71 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 1: depends on whether or not the Titans win, and I 72 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: feel like teams in that situation generally play hard. Anyway. 73 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: For me, I kind of did the same thing where 74 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: when we were recording Monday, where we look ahead for 75 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 1: the early lines, I said that I was going to 76 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: hit the Bears who were getting seven. It was still 77 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 1: available at some books. A lot of books pull it 78 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 1: down during the game, but it was still available at 79 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: some books if it looked like the Vikings were going 80 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: to lose that game against Green Bay and essentially be 81 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 1: locked in. So I did. I hit it basically as 82 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: soon as that game ended. When it was up, So 83 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: I'm locked in at Chicago plus seven. The consensus line 84 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: is now Chicago plus one. I don't feel quite as 85 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: great about that, but I. 86 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 2: Would you know, yeah, well, you you locked in six 87 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 2: points of value there against potentially the closing number. 88 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: Yeah you did, of course, of course, of course, no, no, 89 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: in that sense, of course. You know, I haven't yet 90 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: heard that the Vikings are resting the starters now anyway, 91 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 1: and they may want to get that ugly taste out 92 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: of their mouths and looking so futured off asily, but 93 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: obviously the value is there. But either way, that's sort 94 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: of a lesson to be learned in monitoring the lines 95 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: as we go along. So before we get into this 96 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: week's picks, I'm just gonna quickly review what went down 97 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 1: last week during the show our guest Sean Green. He 98 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: hit on the Packers getting five and a half from 99 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: the Vikings, the Eagles getting one and a half from 100 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: the Cowboys, and Jamis Winston going over three hundred passing yards. 101 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: His only non win was a push on the Bucks 102 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 1: getting three from the Textan, So a pretty nice week 103 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 1: for Sean. I hit on all three of my best bets, 104 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 1: the Jets getting three from the Steelers, the Dolphins and 105 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: the Bengals over forty six and a half, and the 106 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: Cardinals getting nine and a half from the Seahawks. My 107 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 1: only miss was on Terry McLaurin going over one hundred 108 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: receiving yards, which was at plus one seventy for today. 109 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 1: As always, Sean and I are going to start with 110 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 1: the pick six, where we each give our three best 111 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: bets either against the spread or on the over. Under Sean, 112 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: why don't you get us started here? 113 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 2: So I'll just get started with a pretty meaningless game 114 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 2: the Browns and Bengals. I'm eyeing the over on this matchup. 115 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 2: My model likes the over environment for this game. It's 116 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 2: projected to be the sixth fastest pace matchup. There's a 117 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 2: ton of explosive play potential. It's actually my highest projection 118 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 2: in that regard. This week. You know, the Bengals have 119 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 2: allowed you know, the fourth highest explosive run play rate 120 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 2: and second highest exposive pass play rate. So I think 121 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 2: the Browns, you know, this will be a game where 122 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: the Browns wont to end on a good note. They've 123 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 2: struggled this year, so I could see Baker Chubb, O'Dell Beckham, 124 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 2: and Jarvis LANs y'all having big games here. The Bengals. 125 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 2: They should be without William Jackson this week. He was 126 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 2: placed on an ir. He did a good job chuting 127 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 2: down Odell just three games ago. They played, so he'll 128 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 2: be out. So that's going to prove the matchup. You know, 129 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:29,920 Speaker 2: Miles Garrett is obviously out for the Browns, but they 130 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 2: they have Sheldon Richardson and Olivia Vernon are also questionable. 131 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 2: So this is just a game that, you know, especially 132 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 2: when it's meaningless, we could just see a sneaky shootout. 133 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 2: The only reason I'm waiting to bet this is it 134 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 2: opened at forty six. It's it's been hit pretty hard 135 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 2: on the under. Sixty three percent of the money has 136 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:48,040 Speaker 2: come in on the under. I think that's due to 137 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 2: the weather report. It looks like there's a ninety percent 138 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 2: chance of rain. I typically don't bet based on any 139 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 2: weather report more than seventy two hours before the game, 140 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,279 Speaker 2: so in situations like this, the market can actually over 141 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 2: correct and give some pretty good value. So if the 142 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 2: weather report looks like it's going to clear up a bit, 143 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 2: I'll come in hard on the over, or just when 144 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 2: it seems like the line will reach its low point, 145 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 2: which it could be right around forty three and a half. 146 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 2: Y No, I'm gonna come in the over, but this 147 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 2: one I'm just waiting to see until I get the 148 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 2: best number out of curiosity. 149 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 1: How much does a game like that's gonna see, you know, 150 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 1: unless it's torrential downpours? How long? Does how much this 151 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: heavy rain impact whether or not you want to hit 152 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: the over because for me, I always think of it 153 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,559 Speaker 1: more as you know, really windy days are are stuff 154 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: that can really affect the passing game or the kicking game. 155 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 1: But I never know how much to incorporate rain necessarily 156 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 1: into whether or not I want to bet the over under. 157 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: Does it move it significantly in your mind what you 158 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 1: want to do? 159 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 2: Usually not rain. Wind is definitely a big factor. Rain 160 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 2: not so much, And I think it always you know, 161 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 2: it always comes out of the matchup in this game. 162 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 2: If if they do run the ball more, it's not 163 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 2: that big of a deal. We saw Joe mix in 164 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 2: last week struggle a bit. He came into the game 165 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 2: with the stomach above. He should be, you know, closer 166 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,479 Speaker 2: to one hundred percent this week, but he lit up 167 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 2: the Browns just a few weeks ago, ran the ball 168 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 2: twenty three times for one hundred and forty six yards 169 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 2: in a touchdown. On the other side of the ball. 170 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 2: We all know that Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt can 171 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 2: rack up yards, so in this matchup, even if it 172 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 2: is pretty rainy, I think the you know, the rushing 173 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 2: offense versus the rushing defense is a pretty good matchup, 174 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 2: so I think that again, there's still sneaky play on 175 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 2: the over even if the weather is pretty inclement. But 176 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 2: we'll have time to kind of get a better forecast 177 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 2: closer to the game. So it looks like it is 178 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 2: going to be bad that this number could drop to 179 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 2: you know, forty one and a half or something like that. 180 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 2: So I just think the market is typically get overcorrect 181 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 2: in a matchup like this, so I'm just letting it do. 182 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 2: It's you know, lower as much as possible. And they've 183 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 2: actually passed through some key numbers when it comes to totals, 184 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 2: a number like forty four, forty three, those are some 185 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 2: of the key numbers I look for, so it's already 186 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 2: moved down to that range. So I think it's providing 187 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 2: a ton of value now, but I just want to 188 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 2: wait and see. 189 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely right now, it's sitting at forty three and 190 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 1: a half in our consensus, but it has been moving 191 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: all week, so certainly can wait till closer to game 192 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: time to see where it ends up. For my first pick, 193 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: I am going to take the Falcons and the Bucks 194 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: under forty eight. 195 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: Now. 196 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: The Bucks have been a pretty good overplay for the 197 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: majority of the season, but obviously there are some differences 198 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: in the team now, the biggest being the loss of 199 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But their secondary has 200 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: quietly started to play a lot better. Carlton Davis has 201 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: really improved as the season has kind of long. You 202 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: saw it last week with DeAndre Hopkins. And they've been 203 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: able to stop the run all year. Everybody knows that, 204 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: but it's not just being able to stop the running game. 205 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,200 Speaker 1: It's they've been really elite at stopping passes to the 206 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: running backs too, And that's really a big deal when 207 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: you have Vonta Freeman because that's what he's been doing 208 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 1: a lot for most of the season. So you know, 209 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: you know the Falcons are going to get Julio his 210 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: fourteen hundred yards. He needs about eighty four yards. They are. 211 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: Austin Hooper's there, but I'm not really sure what else 212 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 1: they're gonna do offensively. I think Christian Blake is the 213 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: second wide receiver. I know he's out there. I've looked 214 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: at him, but he's just not really getting targeted whatsoever. 215 00:08:57,960 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: It's an outdoor game. The Falcons aren't quite a shit 216 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 1: about doors, so I don't see this as a huge 217 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: game for their offense. On the other side, it just 218 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: kind of is what it is at this point for 219 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: the Bucks offense. Prashad Perriman and Justin Watson, they're just 220 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: not the same as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Even 221 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:13,400 Speaker 1: more than that, though, you really look at the Falcons defense, 222 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: I feel like it's really turned around. In the second half. 223 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 1: Last year, they allowed twenty six point four points per 224 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,559 Speaker 1: game before the bye. This year, they were allowing more 225 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: than thirty one points per game. Then coming out of 226 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 1: the by you heard that there was this report that 227 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: Dan Quinn was giving up the play calling duties on 228 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 1: the defense. Since then, they're giving up only about eighteen 229 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 1: points per game. And it's not like that's just an 230 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: easy schedule. They've played the Saints twice, for example, so 231 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: part of it is that they got a little healthier too. 232 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 1: But for whatever reason, they're playing well, they're playing hard. 233 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: And I could also see Julio Jones kind of taking 234 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: a seat here. He's always injured, he's you know, fighting 235 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 1: through injury pretty much the whole year. Once against to 236 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 1: his fourteen hundred yards, I could see him taking a 237 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: seat here. So for me, you know, the Bucks over 238 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 1: has been a good play for the majority of the season. 239 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: For me, I like the under here at forty eight. 240 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a great play. Actually, before the 241 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 2: opening lines came out, I had this game projected at 242 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 2: forty eight. That's where I think the over under probably 243 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 2: should have been. And when it opened at fifteen and 244 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 2: a half, I didn't jump in it right away because 245 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 2: I thought, you know, everybody would be attacking the over 246 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 2: here and it might bump up to like fifty one 247 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:14,319 Speaker 2: to fifty one and a half or something. Boy was 248 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:17,199 Speaker 2: I wrong it. Yeah, the mark hat definitely corrected in 249 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 2: the right direction. So now it's you know, forty eight 250 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 2: forty seven and a half. So yeah, I would say 251 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 2: the value shot now. But I do do like the 252 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:24,839 Speaker 2: under in this game. Yeah. 253 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 1: I saw it at forty seven actually earlier, and I 254 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: was like, oh no, But then it seems to have 255 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: corrected it. Stuff. So it has been bat a lot 256 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: of these lines, that's the thing. More so than any 257 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: other week. I feel like the lines are completely all 258 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: over the place, yep, but it's fun. So what's your 259 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: second pick here, Sean? 260 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 2: So this game, I'm I'm probably not going to take 261 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 2: the Chargers before the game starts, I've I've lost enough 262 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 2: money on them this year. They've just been a tease 263 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 2: this year, very frustrating team. They're way better than their 264 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 2: five and ten record. Their Pythagoraythereum expected record is actually 265 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 2: seven point six wins and seven point four losses. A 266 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 2: lot of that's due to their two to nine record 267 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 2: and one game one score game. You can make a 268 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:05,439 Speaker 2: case that's due to poor coaching, but typically teams regress 269 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 2: to you know, winning those games half the time. But 270 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 2: you know, I've always said that they don't really have 271 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 2: much of a home field advantage since moving here in 272 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 2: la I actually lived down the street from the stadium, 273 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 2: so I've known about this for a while that we 274 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 2: don't really have the most loyal fans, so it's usually 275 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 2: mostly just you know, teams rooting for the way fans 276 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 2: rooting for the way team. We saw Philip Rivers have 277 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 2: to do a silent count last week at home, so 278 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 2: they're fourteen and seven against the spread on the road 279 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 2: since moving here. So I think people still overlook that 280 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 2: quite a bit. Having said that, this isn't a game 281 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 2: I'm going to take before the game starts, because as 282 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 2: this game plays, I'll be looking at the Patriots Dolphins game. 283 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 2: So I think if the Patriots get off to you know, 284 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 2: a fast start there and they get you know, a 285 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 2: fourteen plus lead in that game, we could see the 286 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 2: Chiefs pull back a little bit, potentially sit Patrick Mahomes. 287 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 2: I'm not saying that's likely, but that's just a potential 288 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 2: we have to look for. But also, you know, the 289 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 2: Chargers in general typically get off to a slow start. 290 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 2: So Philip Rivers in his first ten pass attempts this year, 291 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 2: he's had a three eight to seven touchdown interception ratio 292 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 2: with the QB rating of seventy seven, and then the 293 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 2: rest of the game it improves to eighteen touchdown to 294 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 2: eleven picks ratio with the QB rating of ninety five 295 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 2: point two. So he does improve as the game goes. 296 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 2: And this is a game where I'm expecting the in 297 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 2: game line could move up to you know, say ten 298 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 2: and a half to seventeen and a half, and they're 299 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 2: they're more likely to do, you know, pull off the 300 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,440 Speaker 2: back door cover in that situation, So I'm not gonna 301 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 2: take him plus nine to start when we get more 302 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 2: value in game, and that's that's when where you'll want 303 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 2: to monitor other games to see how a team like 304 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 2: the Chiefs could start to pull back as the game 305 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 2: goes on. 306 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, the only thing they have right in there is 307 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: the possibility of getting the two seed. I mean I could, 308 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: I guess I could lose. As we talked about today, 309 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,719 Speaker 1: they could switch to the fourth seed as well. If 310 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: the Texans win and they lose. 311 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 2: Right yeah, yeah, I think that is a possibility. 312 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: But I think the Texans play later again, so they're 313 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:05,719 Speaker 1: really and that's not a big deal. I mean, you 314 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 1: don't want to play Buffalo if you can avoid it. 315 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: But regardless, it is really about getting the buy. And 316 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 1: if the Patriots destroy the Dolphins, as I think most 317 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: people expect them to do, then you could certainly see 318 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 1: them pulling back. So I like that call as well. 319 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for it, as you know, 320 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 1: as you mentioned at the start of the game. Right now, 321 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: it's certainly not a game that I'm looking It's bounced 322 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: back and forth between eight and a half and nine 323 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: and a half, kind of all week, but I like 324 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: the in game plan that for my second one. I 325 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:31,680 Speaker 1: don't know if you're gonna like this one, Shohn, So 326 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 1: I'm going to listen to what you have to say, 327 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 1: but I'm going to take the Broncos laying three and 328 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 1: a half here to the Raiders. Now, it's at three 329 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 1: in a couple of books, so if you can get 330 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 1: it there, I much prefer it there. But even with 331 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: the hook, I'll still take it. The Raiders. They have 332 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 1: this legitimate chance they hit on this ridiculous thing where 333 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: like ten things are going to fall their way and 334 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: they somehow make the playoffs. But I don't think it's 335 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 1: going to happen, and I think that if all else fails, 336 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: it's not gonna happen, because I think the Raiders are 337 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:57,719 Speaker 1: going to lose this game, and they're going to lose 338 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: it by more than three points. The Broncos are not 339 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: a bad football team. They could have easily been in 340 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: the mix of a few things went their way earlier. 341 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 1: Drew Locke is competent. They're leaning on Philip Lindsay more, 342 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:09,719 Speaker 1: Courtlin Suttons, one of the more talented wide receivers in 343 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 1: the game. Their defense is solid. They're capable of putting 344 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 1: up some points, especially against a team like the Raiders 345 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: that are thirtieth and weighted defensive DVOA and offensively. The 346 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: Raiders are just they're down some key pieces. They did 347 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: get Hunter Renfro back, but it's still unclear if Josh 348 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: Jacobs is going to play. You had some minor leg 349 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: procedure yesterday. Apparently it was just for an infection. I'm 350 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: not sure about his availability, but he obviously has the 351 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: shoulder injury. Trent Brown is now on IR Richie Incognito 352 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 1: missed last week. I don't know if he's going to 353 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 1: be back here. So their line has kind of been 354 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 1: their strength all seasons. So without those guys it really 355 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 1: hurts them. And I get that it's a narrative, but 356 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: Derek Carr does not play well in cold weather. I 357 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: think his teams are two and eleven or two and 358 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: twelve when the weather's under fifty degrees. I've lost count 359 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: at this point. It's a high of thirty seven in 360 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: Denver on Sunday. It's a tough place to play anyway. 361 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 1: It's their second divisional game. The Broncos surely want to 362 00:14:57,960 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: go out on a high. Note, especially after losing to 363 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 1: the Raiders in Week one, and even if the Raiders 364 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: like just you know, from a very public perspective, the 365 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: Raiders are like, well, they might have a chance of 366 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: the playoffs and the Broncos don't. So you know, don't 367 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: you want to favor that team? I think you know, 368 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: more often than not, these teams come out that are 369 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: out of it and they play really hard. Guys are 370 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 1: playing for jobs. I think they want to win after 371 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: they got embarrassed a little bit in that opening game, 372 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 1: so I think they're going to play hard here. So 373 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: for me, I'm interested here because I have a feeling 374 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: you might not agree, but I will take the Broncos 375 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: length three and a half to the Raiders. 376 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 2: No, I like the call. That's a game where I'm 377 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 2: probably staying away from. It's really tough betting on a 378 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 2: team that doesn't have anything to play for. But I 379 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 2: forgot the theory. But you know, the Raiders fall under 380 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 2: it where you know they're a bad team. It's almost 381 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 2: a miracle they even have a chance for a playoff 382 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 2: birth here. But you know, a team like that, there's 383 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 2: a reason they're fighting for a playoff spot. So those 384 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 2: teams are more likely to have a letdown game, so 385 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 2: I think they will be a popular bet. Looks like 386 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 2: about sixty five to seventy percent of the action has 387 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 2: come in on them, and you know, the Broncos are 388 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 2: still laying a key number like three and a half, 389 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 2: So I think there is some sharp action on the Broncos. 390 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 2: And like you said, I think the Broncos are very underrated. 391 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 2: They if they make a couple splash landings in the offseason, 392 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 2: they could be sort of the twenty nineteen Browns going 393 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 2: into next year. You know, hopefully it doesn't turn out 394 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 2: that partly, but I think they have a lot of 395 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 2: pieces in place. Drew Locke has impressed me. He's been 396 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 2: a lot better than I thought he'd be. So this 397 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 2: is another game where, yeah, I think they'll try to 398 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 2: have a statement game heading in the next year. So 399 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 2: even though they don't have much to play for, they 400 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 2: don't have anything to play for for the playoffs, I 401 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 2: think this will be a game where they come out 402 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 2: more motivated than people think. 403 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: And I think you know, when they these lines are set, 404 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 1: I think you know, the people who set the lines 405 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: know that the public is going to be thinking about, oh, 406 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: one team has a chance to play for something the 407 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 1: other team doesn't, and so more of the money is 408 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: going to come in on it. But like you said, 409 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: the fact that the line's not moving, it's been at 410 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 1: three and a half all week, I think says that 411 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: it's probably more of a play. 412 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, And we've seen the Raiders have a massive letdown 413 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:06,719 Speaker 2: game in a spot like this before. I mean, they 414 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 2: played the last game ever in Oakland and they let 415 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 2: the Jaguars come back and beat them. So that just 416 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 2: goes to show you that they would be the type 417 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 2: of team that would have a letdown game in this 418 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 2: exact spot. 419 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 1: Absolutely, And you can't take anything away from the fact 420 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,960 Speaker 1: that they just destroyed the Chargers because that doesn't count, 421 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 1: as he basically does exactly. All right, let's movo on 422 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: to your last pick. What do you got? 423 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 2: Okay, So this this game, it's a cluster injury situation. 424 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 2: So the the Seahawks have had a brutal stretch where 425 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 2: they lost for Sea Penny. Then last week they lost 426 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 2: Chris Carson and CJ. Prosss. So a situation like that, 427 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,399 Speaker 2: I do I facor that in quite a bit. So 428 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 2: I think they're they you know, probably Dock them off 429 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,199 Speaker 2: about a point, maybe a point and a half on 430 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 2: the power rating. Now, they did bring in Marshawn Lynch 431 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,639 Speaker 2: and Robert Turbin, which you know is exciting from a 432 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 2: DFS perspective, but you know, I think they'll fill in 433 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 2: a bit. But I think Travis Homer will be the 434 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 2: starting running back. But ultimately this game is gonna come 435 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 2: down on Russell Wilson's shoulders. So I like getting him 436 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,920 Speaker 2: at home here getting plus three and a half. I 437 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 2: thought the Niners had probably closed maybe one and a 438 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 2: half to two point favorite here, but three and a 439 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,440 Speaker 2: half is just way too much on the road. Russell 440 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,199 Speaker 2: Wilson's only been a home underdog seven times in his 441 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 2: career and he's six and one, so I just think, 442 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 2: you know, getting him here at home is just a 443 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 2: clutch game like this. This is definitely my play of 444 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,640 Speaker 2: the week. So while I'm avoiding most of the games 445 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 2: because they're involving teams with nothing to play for, this 446 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 2: is the This is the one game I'm treating straight 447 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 2: up and feel pretty good about. 448 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: You know, I wonder whether or not this might be 449 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: beneficial to the Seahawks who have all these injuries at 450 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 1: running back because no matter what, they're not going to 451 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 1: give the same number of carries. Even however, the backfield, 452 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 1: you know, shakes out with the three running backs, so 453 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: I can't imagine they're going to run it as much 454 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: as they were when you had Carson and Penny and 455 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 1: even pro Sise. So I think putting the game more 456 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 1: in Russell Wilson's hands, even though the Niners are probably 457 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: a little more exploitable on the ground, I think that's 458 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: only a good thing for Seattle. And you know, the 459 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: game against Arizona, I just feel like they were, you know, 460 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 1: as much as they had the injuries, I feel like 461 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 1: they were just kind of looking past it. I feel 462 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:15,439 Speaker 1: like they were just looking at this game, and as 463 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 1: much as it affected, you know, the seating that they'll 464 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 1: get if they win the division, I think they were 465 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 1: just looking at this game. So I like the call. 466 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 1: I don't know if I if I can do it. Honestly, 467 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: it's something where I think there is value, but I've 468 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 1: had trouble pulling the trigger on it. And again I 469 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 1: agree with you. I expected it to be closer. I 470 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 1: think it might have been two and a half at 471 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: one point, but it's basically been sitting now at three 472 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: and a half. 473 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,159 Speaker 2: Well they've yeah, they've been just getting killed, I would say. 474 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 2: So it looks like they're seventy five percent of the 475 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 2: tickets and eighty two percent of the money that was 476 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,439 Speaker 2: just you know, just sheer money and ticket action coming in, 477 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:47,479 Speaker 2: so they had to move it past key number. So right, 478 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 2: we'll see going forward. If it stays at three and 479 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 2: a half, that might worry me. But I think Sharps 480 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 2: are going to come in on the three and a 481 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:54,360 Speaker 2: half pretty soon. 482 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 1: All right, I like it. For my final pick, I'm 483 00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: going to take. This is so much more of a 484 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: narrative play. But we're in week seventeen. I'm going to 485 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: take the Ravens and Steelers. When I took it the 486 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 1: under it was thirty eight. It now our consensus is 487 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,360 Speaker 1: thirty seven, So whatever, I don't care, I'll taking It'll 488 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,639 Speaker 1: be twenty five. I'll take it. I talked about this 489 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 1: when we took an early look at the lines back 490 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: on Monday. There's always a worry with a defensive score 491 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,880 Speaker 1: or two. With this matchup, both defenses are excellent, even 492 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 1: with some Ravens resting here on the defensive side. But 493 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,679 Speaker 1: outside of that, It's really tough to see this getting 494 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 1: even to this number of thirty sevens. The Steelers are 495 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,119 Speaker 1: so abysmal offensively. I mean, Duck Hodges would not be 496 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: in there if Mason Rudolph were healthy. The alternative now 497 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: is Paxton Lynch. James Connor misspractice again today. I'm sure 498 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: he's going to miss this game. We don't know who's 499 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: going to be on the defense for the Ravens. I 500 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 1: think the only thing we do know for sure is 501 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: Brandon Williams is not going to play. That obviously hurts 502 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: the run defense. But again, if it's Benny Snell leading 503 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,359 Speaker 1: the way, the Ravens can't possibly fear Hodges. It's not 504 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: like I expect them to be able to run all 505 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 1: over the Ravens. More importantly, we have talked about this 506 00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 1: a couple of times on this podcast before. John Harbaugh 507 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 1: does not like to lose. He crushes in the preseason. 508 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: He does not want to lose this game to the Steelers, 509 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 1: maybe let them into the playoffs. He wants to win. 510 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 1: So whoever is out there, he is going to play 511 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: to win the game. The Steelers have an outstanding all 512 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: around defense, and we know there's no Mark Ingram, there's 513 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 1: no Lamar Jackson. I'm sure there are going to be 514 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,120 Speaker 1: a couple of other offensive starters who are going to sit. 515 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 1: RG three is probably going to run the exact same 516 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 1: type of offense, which means there's going to be a 517 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:24,879 Speaker 1: lot on the ground. It's going to eat up the clock, 518 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,120 Speaker 1: probably try to avoid turnovers. It's hard to judge these 519 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: games when you have a lot of backups in. But 520 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 1: I mean, the totals for the Steelers last seven games 521 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:36,880 Speaker 1: is twenty nine, twenty eight, twenty six, thirty three, forty 522 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,400 Speaker 1: twenty seven and twenty six. It's not all that much 523 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: rocket science. I think Tomlin is going to try to 524 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,400 Speaker 1: keep Hodges from losing the game. He'll probably play conservative, 525 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: try to win it with his defense. So even at 526 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 1: thirty seven, which is an abysmally low total, I'm gonna 527 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: still ride with it and take the under thirty seven. 528 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 1: I like it, Okay, I'll take it. That's all you 529 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 1: gotta say. I will take it. All right, let's recap here, Sean, 530 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: you're going to take the Bengals on the Browns over 531 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 1: forty three and a half. You're obviously waiting till the 532 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 1: end to see all all the shakes out. You're gonna 533 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 1: take the Seahawks getting three and a half from the 534 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, and you're gonna almost certainly be popping 535 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 1: an in game bet here on the Chargers or the 536 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,159 Speaker 1: Casey game. Once the Pats look like they may be 537 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 1: running away with their game against the Dolphins. I'm gonna 538 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 1: take the Falcons in the Bucks under forty eight, the 539 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: Broncos link three and a half to the Raiders, and 540 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Steelers to go under the really 541 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,439 Speaker 1: small number of thirty seven. Now, before we move on 542 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:27,120 Speaker 1: to our next segment, I want to tell everyone about 543 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,160 Speaker 1: the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM, specifically the bet 544 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 1: MGM Sports App. With the bet mgm Sports App, you 545 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: can place a bet right from your phone. Here's all 546 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: you need to do. 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Bet MGM does these crazy offers where 552 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: they basically essentially give you free money, like this past weekend. 553 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 1: If you placed a one dollar money line bet on 554 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,120 Speaker 1: the Chiefs to beat the Bears, you not only won 555 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: the bet, but you also won one hundred dollars in 556 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,399 Speaker 1: free bets just because Patrick Mahomes completed a single pass. 557 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 1: This weekend, you've got the college football playoffs. Maybe like Clemson, 558 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 1: maybe you assume LSU is gonna win its game easily. 559 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 1: But for purposes of bet MGM, it doesn't really matter. 560 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,439 Speaker 1: Place a one dollar money line bet on any of 561 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: the teams this Saturday, anyone, and if any one of 562 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: those teams scores even a single touchdown, you win two 563 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets. It does not have to 564 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:26,119 Speaker 1: be the team you bet on, It does not have 565 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,160 Speaker 1: to be in the game. You bet on. Any team 566 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 1: scores a touchdown, you got two hundred dollars in free bets. 567 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 1: The offer is valid through kickoff of the Fiesta Bowl too, 568 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 1: so that's at eight o'clock Eastern time. But you got 569 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 1: to sign up for the bet MGM Sports app use 570 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,919 Speaker 1: our promo code Harris. These winnings are paid in free bets. 571 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 1: You must be twenty one years or older, and although 572 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:45,919 Speaker 1: you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere. You 573 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 1: must be in the state of New Jersey to place 574 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 1: a sports bet, and certain restrictions apply. Is it betmgms 575 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 1: dot com for the fullest of terms and conditions. And 576 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 1: if you've got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler, 577 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: all right, John, it's sign for it's a trap where 578 00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: we each list one bet we are avoiding. I'm sure 579 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 1: we have more than one, but go ahead and give 580 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,360 Speaker 1: me your number one that you're avoiding. 581 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 2: So I'm avoiding betting on the Steelers Ravens spread. You know, 582 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,879 Speaker 2: at certain times this week I really liked the Ravens 583 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,959 Speaker 2: and other times I really like the Steelers. You kind 584 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 2: of mentioned it. I think this is the type of 585 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 2: game that the Steelers, you know, would be pretty good at. 586 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 2: I think they would get away with the conservative game plan, 587 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 2: sort of keep the ball out of Duck Hodge's hands, 588 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 2: lean on the run game, lean on that strong defense, 589 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 2: and just keep it close, and they should be able 590 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 2: to pull it off against a Ravens team that's you know, 591 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 2: resting a lot of key players. But I mean the 592 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 2: advance line for this game, I probably would have this 593 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 2: around man minus thirteen and a half or minus fourteen 594 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,880 Speaker 2: if everybody was active and trying for the Ravens. So 595 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 2: a sixteen point line move as good as Lamar Jackson 596 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 2: is and some of the key players like mark Ingramar, 597 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 2: I think that's a lot of points, you know. I 598 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:57,199 Speaker 2: think RG three and Gus Edwards will be fine. So 599 00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 2: it's just the game where I've been tempted to go 600 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 2: either way. So I've just decided, Okay, that means I'm 601 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 2: not going to bet either side. I'm just gonna enjoy 602 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 2: this game, whether it's betting on player props or dfs. 603 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 2: But I am not going to even try to take 604 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:10,640 Speaker 2: a side here. 605 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with you. I like the under 606 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 1: because I don't expect I expect both teams to just 607 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 1: kind of relax and lean on their defense. But I 608 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 1: have no idea. I do not have a feel for 609 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,560 Speaker 1: this game. And it's one of many this week, and 610 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,040 Speaker 1: the one that I'm avoiding is the Cowboys laying ten 611 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 1: and a half to the Redskins. I felt good about 612 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 1: the Redskins earlier in the week, the line was a 613 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 1: couple of points higher. I think case Keenum at this 614 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:37,120 Speaker 1: point is at worst a lateral move from Dwayne Haskins probably, 615 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 1: you know, an upgrade, but the offensive line is really 616 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 1: beat up. Terry McLaurin is still in the concussion protocol. 617 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,439 Speaker 1: Last I checked, I haven't seen anything yet from today. 618 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:49,120 Speaker 1: They're completely decimated in their secondary. Their corners are Aaron Colvin, 619 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: Cody Sensebaal, and cam On Webster. You saw how easily 620 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:54,439 Speaker 1: the Giants carved them up last week, so it is 621 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 1: really hard to see them stopping the Cowboys at all. 622 00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 1: But Dak Prescott does not look right, and it's a 623 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,880 Speaker 1: Jason Garrett led team. So I feel like that's seen 624 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,680 Speaker 1: the Princess Bride, where Zemi's explaining how because of X factor, 625 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,199 Speaker 1: I clearly can choose the wine in front of you. 626 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: But then he goes through another factor and says, and 627 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: so I clearly can choose the wine in front of me. 628 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 1: And that's basically how I feel. I can't choose the 629 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 1: Cowboys wine, can't choose the Redskins wine. I'm just gonna 630 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 1: drink beer and be happier for it. So that's the 631 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: game I'm avoiding. You are avoiding the Steelers laying two 632 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 1: to the Ravens, and I'm avoiding the Cowboys lank ten 633 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: and a half to the Redskins. So before we go 634 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 1: into our final segment, I want to remind everyone about 635 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 1: our giveaway, so signed Michael Thomas Saints helmet. You can 636 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 1: go to betting Pros dot com slash contest for more details, 637 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 1: but to enter, just leave a review for the show 638 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher, send a screenshot of that 639 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,879 Speaker 1: review to contest at bettingpros dot com. If you have 640 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,399 Speaker 1: already entered a previous contest, you are automatically entered for 641 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,360 Speaker 1: this one, So no worries about that. The Thomas helmet, 642 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: all of our signed helmets, they come from Pristine Auction, 643 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 1: where they offer a ton of great memorabilia with thousands 644 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 1: of auctions every day. Just go Pristineauction dot com. That's 645 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,400 Speaker 1: pr I s t i n E auction dot com 646 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: And when you go there, use our promo code Betting 647 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 1: Pros and win a free five dollars voucher instantly. All right, Sean, 648 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 1: let's finish up with top prop. What's your best player 649 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:13,159 Speaker 1: prop for this weekend? 650 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 2: So you know, we were talking about this before we 651 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,600 Speaker 2: went on air, but week seventeen sportsbooks definitely like to 652 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 2: hold off player props as long as possible. It's definitely 653 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 2: the trickiest week for that market. There's only one player 654 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 2: prop out there right now. It's Travis Homer's rushing yards. 655 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 2: And I actually do like this prop. It opened up 656 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 2: at forty two and a half, which I think is 657 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 2: a pretty good line. I would set it closer to 658 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 2: forty five and a half. I have Homer getting eleven 659 00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,439 Speaker 2: point seven carries here. Pete Carroll mentioned, you know, he 660 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 2: wants to kind of stick with the guy that's been there, 661 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 2: so they mentioned they would lean on Travis Homer this game. 662 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 2: I think Marshawn Lynch, you know, he will get sort 663 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,399 Speaker 2: of the short down goal line work, but Homer should 664 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,879 Speaker 2: get the carries between the twenties. And that's that's where 665 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 2: a prop like this comes into play. Really, Robert Turbin, 666 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 2: I'm assuming we'll just be nothing more than a change 667 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 2: of pace back. So I like Homer getting over forty 668 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,400 Speaker 2: two and a half yards. And you know, since we've 669 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 2: been on air, the line has dropped to thirty nine 670 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 2: and a half. I think this is one of those 671 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 2: things where people are they're just excited to see Beast 672 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:16,639 Speaker 2: mode Sunday night. So I think the Homer prop it 673 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 2: could just go down. I think people will just expect 674 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,680 Speaker 2: Marshall Lench to just inherit a twenty Carrie roll or something. 675 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:26,240 Speaker 2: So it's rare that I do attack overs on player props, 676 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 2: but I think this is one, especially at three and 677 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 2: a half. I have I ran my assimulator on it, 678 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,920 Speaker 2: and I have them getting over that roughly fifty nine 679 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 2: percent of the time. So there's quite a bit of 680 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 2: value on this right now. 681 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that one too. Yeah, I agree with 682 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 1: you completely, by the way, with player propats, which I love, 683 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 1: you know, probably more even than betting generally on the spread, 684 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 1: the unders are usually where I like to hammer it 685 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 1: because I almost always see more value there. Now on 686 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: this we always talk about it. It's Thursday. There aren't 687 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 1: that many props that are available in the market, and 688 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 1: then that's especially true as you said this week, So 689 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 1: more often than not, we are taking overs because that's 690 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 1: what's available over at points bet, and that is what 691 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 1: I'm going to do here. And I'm gonna take Christian 692 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 1: McCaffrey to go over seventy five yards receiving, which is 693 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 1: that even money over at points bet. Now, if you 694 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: want the free square, take over fifty yards at minus 695 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 1: two point fifty abstinente injury, that's gonna hit. He's sixty 696 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,800 Speaker 1: seven yards receiving away from a one thousand rushing yard 697 00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 1: one thousand receiving yards season. The coaching staff has already 698 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 1: come out and basically said he is going to get it. 699 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: That would only be the third time in history, joining 700 00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: only Roger Craig and Marshall Fock. So look, it's possible 701 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 1: that his last reception gets him to seventy yards receiving 702 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 1: and he's pulled. That's fine, but I'd probably drop a 703 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 1: larger wager on going over the fifty yards, and I'd 704 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 1: add one on the seventy five yards, just to you know, 705 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 1: go for the bigger payout. But for me, I think 706 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 1: there's almost no chance with a team like the Panthers 707 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,479 Speaker 1: that has nothing to play for it. There's also probably 708 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: not gonna be Dj Moore in this game. They want 709 00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 1: McCaffrey to get over sixty seven yards, So I think 710 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 1: over fifty is a lock and over seventy five is 711 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 1: pretty close. All right, Sean, that's gonna do it for 712 00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 1: today's show. Thanks for joining me. Remind everybody where they 713 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 1: can find more of you and your. 714 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 2: Work, so you can find all my content on actionnetwork 715 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:08,120 Speaker 2: dot com and please follow me on Twitter at the 716 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,000 Speaker 2: Underscore Odds Maker. That's where I know set lines for 717 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,560 Speaker 2: random things or give fantasy advice, and that's where I 718 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 2: post all my contents, so you can find all my 719 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 2: work there as well. 720 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, as I mentioned, Sean is one of the most 721 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 1: accurate fantasy experts out there, so if you do play 722 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,280 Speaker 1: fantasy football, you should definitely follow him as well. Thanks 723 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 1: again for coming on, Sean. Hopefully we can do it 724 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 1: again soon. 725 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for having me. 726 00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 1: Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. 727 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 1: Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app, use the 728 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 1: promo code Harris to place a one dollar money line 729 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 1: bet on any team playing on Saturday in the college 730 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 1: football playoffs, and you can win two hundred dollars in 731 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 1: free bets so long as any team on Saturday not 732 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,880 Speaker 1: necessarily the team you bet on, not necessarily even in 733 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 1: the game you bet on any team on Saturday scores 734 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,320 Speaker 1: a touchdown, and don't forget to leave this review on 735 00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or stitch. Send a screenshot of that review 736 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 1: to contest at bettingpros dot com to be entered into 737 00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,720 Speaker 1: our Michael Thomas signed helmet giveaway with your wagers this 738 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,160 Speaker 1: week and everybody. We will be back next week talking 739 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:03,960 Speaker 1: about the playoffs.