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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, Welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley,

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Speaker 1: joined by my friend PJ Glasser from Hoops in five

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Speaker 1: with PJ Glasser and Game Day Garage, PJ, we have

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Speaker 1: arrived at the Final Four weekend just two days from

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Speaker 1: now as we record this very very very very very

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Speaker 1: exciting group of four teams here. This is about as

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Speaker 1: fun of a Final Four as you could ask for.

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Speaker 1: You have, of course, the two behemoths in Arizona and

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Speaker 1: Michigan that we have been talking about for a while,

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Speaker 1: as if these two teams meet on Saturday, it will

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Speaker 1: essentially be the title game. We have Illinois, which can

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Speaker 1: go nuclear at any moment, but it's been playing better

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Speaker 1: defense here in the tournament. And of course we have Yukon,

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Speaker 1: who this is their third Final Four in the last

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Speaker 1: four years, have won two titles in the last three years,

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Speaker 1: going for their third and four. When they get this

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Speaker 1: far they typically win it all. And Dan Hurley one

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Speaker 1: of the best coaches in basketball. So just a really

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Speaker 1: really exciting group of it. It's really good programs, but

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Speaker 1: not necessarily true blue bloods across the board. This isn't Carolina, Duke,

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Speaker 1: Kansas Kentucky, but like Illinois, Arizona, Yukatt and Michigan are

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Speaker 1: all really strong programs that just haven't won in a

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Speaker 1: very long time. It's a very very exciting group, is

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Speaker 1: what I'm saying. So when you look at this final four,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna break down the individual matchups here, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk some you know, title futures, all that sort of thing,

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Speaker 1: But your first reaction is seeing that these are the

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Speaker 1: four teams?

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Speaker 2: Is it Is it an excitement?

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Speaker 1: Is it disappointment that Duke didn't make it and could

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Speaker 1: have had another one of these behemoths in there. What

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Speaker 1: was your kind of emotional reaction to seeing this be

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Speaker 1: the final four.

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Speaker 3: I'm really excited because I can't ever remember a time

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Speaker 3: when we got both semifinal games with a point spread

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Speaker 3: a one and a half right, both games or coin flips.

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Speaker 3: Usually you have one of the semifinals, like if Duke

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Speaker 3: would have played Illinois, that line probably would have been

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Speaker 3: about four and a half or so five and a half.

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Speaker 3: And usually you have that where maybe one game is

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Speaker 3: a type point spread, the other game is kind of

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Speaker 3: like large point spread. We've obviously had some game in

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Speaker 3: the past where we've had double digit point spreads in

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Speaker 3: the final four. So the fact where we get two

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Speaker 3: games between these four teams where the point spread is

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Speaker 3: one and a half and we really could have any

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Speaker 3: combination of these teams playing for the national title and

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Speaker 3: it wouldn't surprise anybody. I just think is great for

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Speaker 3: the sport. The fact that we get Michigan versus Arizona,

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Speaker 3: which I think is the game everybody wanted to see

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Speaker 3: that have been pretty much the two best teams all

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Speaker 3: year long, right there with Duke and then Illinois and

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Speaker 3: Yukon is awesome. Dan Hurley can truly cement himself as

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Speaker 3: one of the all time greats if he wins a

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Speaker 3: third national title in four years in this nil era,

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Speaker 3: he's in rarefied era. I mean we're talking like top five,

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Speaker 3: top six coach maybe of all time. Ever, if he

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Speaker 3: accomplishes something like that, and Underwood and Illinois getting their

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Speaker 3: first taste, and the fact that they get to play

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Speaker 3: in the final four a little over an hour from campus,

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Speaker 3: and it's the first time they've been back in twenty years,

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Speaker 3: it'll be it'll be a lot of fun. And also

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Speaker 3: the Big ten where them gets a chance to finally

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Speaker 3: end this drought. Obviously, Michigan and Illinois wins, they're going

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Speaker 3: to be locked in. They get their first national champion

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Speaker 3: since Michigan State in two thousand. So a lot of

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Speaker 3: great storylines, a lot of different things I'm looking forward to,

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Speaker 3: But I just think the biggest thing is the fact

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Speaker 3: that both of these games, I mean should be awesome

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Speaker 3: and they you can make a case for any of

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Speaker 3: these teams winning their games.

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Speaker 1: The Yukon and Hurley thing I think is really interesting too,

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Speaker 1: because I think this would clearly, maybe you disagree, I

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Speaker 1: think this would clearly be the most impressive of the

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Speaker 1: three titles if Hurley gets it. Like obviously, you know,

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Speaker 1: you know the second one, that team was just like

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Speaker 1: they were not going to lose to anybody. It was

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Speaker 1: like it just an all time like great team. And

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Speaker 1: the first run had an all time great tournament run,

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Speaker 1: but they weren't like you know, it was it was

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Speaker 1: the first time, right, Like there's a little bit of

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Speaker 1: the element of like, oh, we're just kind of learning,

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Speaker 1: like who Hurley is as a tournament coach before I

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Speaker 1: joked like onto it that he lost one tournament game

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Speaker 1: to Mark Turgeon and then just decided to become the

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Speaker 1: best tournament coach in basketball. But this is the one

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Speaker 1: where it's a flawed team, right, This is not as

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Speaker 1: strong as that core was for those back to back

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Speaker 1: titles and the run they're going through. Michigan State is

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Speaker 1: a top ten team on ken Pom. Illinois is right

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Speaker 1: now the number four team on ken Pom. Dook, who

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Speaker 1: they just beat, was the number three team on ken Palm,

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Speaker 1: one of the better Ken Pomp teams we've ever seen.

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Speaker 1: And then in the title game if they get past

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Speaker 1: you know, Illinois to have gotten past all those three already,

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Speaker 1: they're facing one of the top two teams on ken

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Speaker 1: Palm right now in Michigan and Arizona. Like, like, just

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Speaker 1: look like that is beating three of the top four

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Speaker 1: teams in the league, including two like historically great teams

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Speaker 1: based on the analytics. So like just a really really

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Speaker 1: great run with a more flawed team than he's had recently.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you, Like, I don't think you need

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Speaker 1: to see much more than this to put him like

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Speaker 1: in really rarefied era historically, not just like of the

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Speaker 1: right now era, but all time, like and I'm not

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Speaker 1: like a particularly big fan of Hurley, just in general, Like,

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Speaker 1: I think some of the antics are a bit much

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Speaker 1: all that stuff. Like, I really didn't like him when

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Speaker 1: he was I mean it was a while ago, but

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Speaker 1: at Rhode Island there was like a tournament game against

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Speaker 1: Maryland where he like was shouted some things at Maryland

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Speaker 1: players that really rubbed me the wrong way. So, like,

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Speaker 1: I'm not a particular fan, but I just think it's undeniable.

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Speaker 1: If he gets a third and four years with this

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Speaker 1: team in this run, it's hard to argue against them.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk a lot more on this episode. We're

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Speaker 1: also gonna talk a lot more on Sunday, PJ. You

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Speaker 1: can get your college basketball betting edge live PJ and

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Speaker 1: myself Sunday.

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Speaker 2: At twelve thirty pm Eastern on.

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Speaker 1: The Betting Pros YouTube channel that's YouTube dot com slash

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Speaker 1: betting Pros for NCAA tournament picks and betting breakdowns for

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Speaker 1: the national Championship. We will know who is in the

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Speaker 1: title game at that point, of course, and we will

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Speaker 1: be breaking it down twelve thirty pm Eastern on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's dive in.

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Speaker 1: I mean, like you said, there's a ton of different

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Speaker 1: storylines here that are really interesting. I think the best

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Speaker 1: thing to do is just dive into the actual games themselves.

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Speaker 1: First game up, Illinois versus Yukon will save sort of.

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Speaker 1: I mean they're both big, but we'll save the bigger

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Speaker 1: one for a second. Here also go krona. Logically, Illinois

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Speaker 1: fourth on ken Pom right now. You know Yukon at

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Speaker 1: ninth on ken Pom at the moment. This did open

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Speaker 1: at two and a half and I think is at

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Speaker 1: one and a half.

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Speaker 2: Now, that's how the line.

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Speaker 1: Has moved the over under last I looked when I

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Speaker 1: was putting together, she was one thirty nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that's a move that you've seen it,

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Speaker 1: but close game a little bit more low scoring than

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Speaker 1: the other one. Ken Palm sees this as a four

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Speaker 1: point game, so a little bit more in favor of

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Speaker 1: Illinois than the betting markets have it. And the total

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Speaker 1: also sees a little bit higher on ken Palm at

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Speaker 1: one forty four. So, having said all that, when you

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Speaker 1: look at Illinois Yukon, what's the first place your mind

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Speaker 1: goes as far as betting the game?

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Speaker 3: I the two things that really intrigue me about this game,

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Speaker 3: the start and the finish Yukon has a huge advantage

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Speaker 3: in this game with the experience factor. We just talked

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Speaker 3: about early coaching in his third Final four and four

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Speaker 3: years Caravans playing in his third Final four and four

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Speaker 3: years that coaching staff, Kamani Young, Luke Murray just took

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Speaker 3: the Boston College job. All these guys have experienced this.

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Speaker 3: They know what the week is like. You know, they're

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Speaker 3: not gonna be any curveballs thrown at them on the

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Speaker 3: flip side. Illinois totally new experience Underwood's coaching in his

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Speaker 3: first Final four, all these players, just about all these

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Speaker 3: assistants getting used to playing a basketball game in a

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Speaker 3: football arena. All the media, like just all of these

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Speaker 3: little things that could be distractions. We talk about it

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Speaker 3: all the time, where with the Super Bowl and how

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Speaker 3: you get this two week prep and you do with

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Speaker 3: media and it's just a way different week. And that's

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Speaker 3: why you see a lot of times in the NFL,

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Speaker 3: the Patriots have a dynasty, the Chiefs have a dynasty.

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Speaker 3: Like these teams that have been there and experienced it

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Speaker 3: tend to do well over the teams that are getting

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Speaker 3: their first taste at it. And that's kind of what

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Speaker 3: this matchup reminds me of a little bit. I think

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Speaker 3: Yukon they have a big advantage in that department. Also,

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Speaker 3: you know, a pretty good coaching mismatch. I'm a higher

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Speaker 3: on Underwood than you are, but nobody's disputing that he's

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Speaker 3: a better coach than Hurley. Is not even in the

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Speaker 3: same level as Hurley, So you also have that aspect

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Speaker 3: of it as well. And I just think Illinois what

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Speaker 3: surprised me most about their run to the Final Four

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Speaker 3: is that none of their games have really come down

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Speaker 3: to the wire. I mean, I know, Houston kind of

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Speaker 3: made a little bit of a late charge, but it's

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Speaker 3: not like it was a one possession game with the

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Speaker 3: minute to go. Same thing with Iowa. That game was

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Speaker 3: close for about the entire game, and then with five

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Speaker 3: minutes left, Illinois started to pull away. What does Illinois

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Speaker 3: look like in a one possession game with three minutes

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Speaker 3: to go with two minutes to go that we haven't

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Speaker 3: seen while Yukon has kind of been playing in those

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Speaker 3: types of games. I mean, the Furman game was close

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Speaker 3: for a while, the Michigan State game came down to

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Speaker 3: the end. Obviously, the Duke game came down to the end.

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Speaker 3: So when you talk about coaching, and you talk about

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Speaker 3: experience and all these kinds of things. I think the

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Speaker 3: start and the finish to this game really critical for Yukon,

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Speaker 3: and it's going to be critical for Illinois to get

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Speaker 3: off to a fast start and how they handle themselves

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Speaker 3: down the stretch of this kind of game. That's why

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Speaker 3: I'm leaning towards betting Yukon in the first half, or

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Speaker 3: maybe if you have some fun like a race to ten,

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Speaker 3: race to fifteen, figuring that they're probably gonna get off

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Speaker 3: to a faster start than Illinois would, and just because

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Speaker 3: of Hurley and his coaching and the sets that they

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Speaker 3: run on offense. And Illinois can watch all the film

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Speaker 3: that they want, but it's unbelievable the sets that he

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Speaker 3: runs and how he gets his shooters open and all

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Speaker 3: those sorts of things. So I like, you kind of

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Speaker 3: start fast. I would look at them in the first

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Speaker 3: half and then I think, worm, what I'm gonna try

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Speaker 3: and do is again, if this is a tight game

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Speaker 3: with like three minutes to go, one possession and you're

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Speaker 3: still getting Yukon at like plus one fifteen plus ten

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Speaker 3: to win the game, I think I'm gonna bet Yukon

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Speaker 3: live because the fear is that Illinois could win this

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Speaker 3: game by eight to twelve points would shock me. I

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Speaker 3: wouldn't have confidence. And then though winning a close game,

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Speaker 3: I think in a tight game that definitely favors Yukon.

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Speaker 3: So if we get that, I don't mind waiting to

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Speaker 3: see the game play out, and then I would be

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Speaker 3: willing to live bet Yukon. So nothing total for me,

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Speaker 3: nothing pregame for me in terms of full game spread,

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Speaker 3: money line, but I think Yukon first half and then

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Speaker 3: maybe a live bet. If we get a close game

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Speaker 3: with three minutes to go, I would look at taken

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Speaker 3: the Huskies.

225
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Speaker 1: We've called that a few games falling into this category

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Speaker 1: throughout the tournament, but this is clearly one where if

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Speaker 1: you want to bet the full game, if you are

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Speaker 1: going to do that, you clearly either bet Yukon money

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Speaker 1: line at plus money or just Illinois to cover. I

230
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Speaker 1: don't see any point in betting Yukon to just cover

231
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Speaker 1: the one and a half or even when it was

232
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Speaker 1: two and a half. I think you either think that

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Speaker 1: the coaching and experience wins out for Yukon and they

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Speaker 1: pull out the win, or you think Illinois is just

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Speaker 1: the better team and they can cover just a couple

236
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Speaker 1: of points, so to me, if you want to bet

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Speaker 1: the full game, like, that's the direction I'm looking. I

238
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Speaker 1: texted you during the Duke Yukon game and I said,

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Speaker 1: I really hope Yukon pulls off this miracle comeback because

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Speaker 1: I can't wait to bet Dan Hurley against Brad Underwood

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Speaker 1: in the next round, especially knowing that Yukon was very

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Speaker 1: likely to be an underdog.

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Speaker 2: And that is what I did.

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Speaker 1: I did bet on Yukon to win the game at

245
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Speaker 1: plus money, just because of the coaching and experience factor

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Speaker 1: that you lay out. Speaking of experience, these two you

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Speaker 1: know programs just two years ago faced each other and

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Speaker 1: I think it was the Elite eight, right, Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think it was the le lead. Yeah, so, and Yukon

250
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Speaker 1: trounced him. They won by like twenty five points in

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Speaker 1: that game. Obviously, some players are still there, you know,

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Speaker 1: modern basketball, there's a too much turnover to put too

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Speaker 1: much stock into that, but clearly the coaches are still there.

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Speaker 1: When you have two coaches like this who have faced

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Speaker 1: each other in a big game, tournament setting before and

256
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Speaker 1: one of them came away with such a dominant win.

257
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Speaker 1: Does that carry any weight for you either in other direction?

258
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Speaker 1: Like on the one hand, you could say, like Phurly

259
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Speaker 1: not that he has his number after just one game,

260
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Speaker 1: but like you know, Hurley clearly has shown his superior already.

261
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Speaker 1: Or do you say, like, hey, like Illinois is hungry,

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Speaker 1: they've gotten blown out by this program before. They know

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Speaker 1: what to expect now because they've been blown out by

264
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Speaker 1: this program for or the third bucket, which is that

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Speaker 1: Yukon team was just one of the greatest teams we've

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Speaker 1: ever seen, and therefore don't put any weight in anything

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Speaker 1: that happened in that run.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think you can put too much into

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Speaker 3: that because that Yukon team was just was too good.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they won every game by double digits, so

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Speaker 3: it's really no fault to Illinois and where them. Also,

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Speaker 3: that game was close, like going into halftime and then

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Speaker 3: Yukon went on a thirty to zero run to make

274
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Speaker 3: it a lot worse than it actually was. So it

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Speaker 3: was just one of those crazy games. And I don't

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Speaker 3: think you can take much away either from when these

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Speaker 3: teams played early in the regular season, they played at

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Speaker 3: Madison Square Garden, but Illinois's team is just way different

279
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Speaker 3: now than it was back then. Even Yukon's team is

280
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Speaker 3: way different. They were dealing with so many injuries. It's

281
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Speaker 3: so many guys in and out of the lineup. To

282
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Speaker 3: start the year, Mullins was hurt, Terris Reid was hurt,

283
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Speaker 3: and now we're all seeing with those guys healthy. I mean,

284
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Speaker 3: Mullins hits the biggest shot in Connecticut history. Reid's been

285
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Speaker 3: their best player throughout the tournament. So the players have

286
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Speaker 3: talked about it, the coaches, it's true. I mean, you

287
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Speaker 3: can't you can't take much out of the early regular

288
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Speaker 3: season meeting or you know, the matchup that they had

289
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Speaker 3: in the Elite eight. But again, you know, Yukon, if

290
00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,680
Speaker 3: that Duke game showed us anything, this is the hardest

291
00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:12,560
Speaker 3: team to knock out of the tournament. Like it just

292
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Speaker 3: it is. And what's interesting to me where them is Yukon.

293
00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:20,439
Speaker 3: They're almost entering territory where it feels like getting the

294
00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,520
Speaker 3: Homes and the Chiefs as a dog or getting Brady

295
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,160
Speaker 3: and the Patriots as a dog. Where you look at

296
00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,640
Speaker 3: a game like this and do you have the stones

297
00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,079
Speaker 3: to bet against Hurley and Connecticut with the plus sign

298
00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,360
Speaker 3: next to their name because just about everybody I've heard

299
00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:37,960
Speaker 3: from likes Yukon in the game. I've not heard much

300
00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:42,240
Speaker 3: Illinois love, which always scares me. But again, it just

301
00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:46,440
Speaker 3: it makes sense, like March basketball is just a different animal,

302
00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,640
Speaker 3: and Dan Hurley the last three four years has figured

303
00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,000
Speaker 3: it out. The only game he has lost in the

304
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:54,520
Speaker 3: last three tournaments was to Florida. Last year he won

305
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Speaker 3: it all and they probably should have won that game.

306
00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:58,480
Speaker 3: They were winning with a minute to go. So he's

307
00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,360
Speaker 3: figured it out, and I I get it, like it's scary,

308
00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,079
Speaker 3: which is why even though I lean Illinois in the game,

309
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Speaker 3: I fully can't get there. But to me, that's the

310
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Speaker 3: most you know, interesting thing going into this is just

311
00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:14,760
Speaker 3: Yukon just continue to find ways to win in March.

312
00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:17,079
Speaker 3: And do we just look at them as this team

313
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Speaker 3: that like, man, if you're just gonna give us early

314
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Speaker 3: as a dog, I mean, we're just gonna have to

315
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,680
Speaker 3: continuously bet bet it over and over again.

316
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Speaker 1: It's a fantastic comparison. The idea of getting Mahomes as

317
00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,560
Speaker 1: a dog in January is exactly the emotion I feel

318
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Speaker 1: when looking at Yukon right now.

319
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Speaker 2: I think it's a spot. Now if Yukon.

320
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Speaker 1: Like if Ukon, let's say wins and is facing Michigan

321
00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,120
Speaker 1: or Arizona, they're clearly going to be a dog again.

322
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Speaker 1: Sure I will be more comfortable betting against them in

323
00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,280
Speaker 1: that scenario, even say, hey, one game, anything can happen,

324
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Speaker 1: because I think the gap is just wider. I do

325
00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:49,880
Speaker 1: think Illinois is the better team, but I think the

326
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Speaker 1: gap is wider with a team like Michigan or Arizona

327
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Speaker 1: that is with Yukon. So I'll be more comfortable here

328
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Speaker 1: when it's not this like utterly insanely Illinois is really good.

329
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Speaker 1: I don't want to be disrespectful to, but when it's

330
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Speaker 1: not this utterly insanely dominant team on that level, then

331
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Speaker 1: it becomes like, yeah, we're really going to pass up

332
00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:10,440
Speaker 1: plus money for Hurly. It just seems silly to do

333
00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:14,560
Speaker 1: that and borderline irresponsible to not just like a blindly

334
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 1: bet that going forward. And I was gonna bring up

335
00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,400
Speaker 1: exactly what you did with This is the fourth tournament

336
00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:22,080
Speaker 1: in the last four tournaments that he's lost one game

337
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,920
Speaker 1: and it was by two points to this on an

338
00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:27,960
Speaker 1: unbelievable role Florida that would go on to win the title.

339
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:32,760
Speaker 1: Like that is an insane run and and yeah, it's

340
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,600
Speaker 1: really hard to go against it. I actually meant to

341
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,120
Speaker 1: ask you at the top you were you were there

342
00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,000
Speaker 1: for Duke you come. What was it like seeing that

343
00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:40,400
Speaker 1: comeback happen in person?

344
00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,440
Speaker 3: It was crazy. I was at the Bama Georgia national

345
00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,360
Speaker 3: title game in college football on second and twenty six

346
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,080
Speaker 3: when Tua hit Devonte Smith, and it was funny, like

347
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,840
Speaker 3: that was almost the basketball version of it where it

348
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,160
Speaker 3: just happened so fast. There was this crazy comeback. You

349
00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,480
Speaker 3: kind of just think the game's over and then something

350
00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:02,040
Speaker 3: happens to split second and then you're just like, oh

351
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,960
Speaker 3: my god, like Bama won the game, Yukon won the game.

352
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,880
Speaker 3: It was it was. It was pretty nuts to watch

353
00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:11,160
Speaker 3: that all unfold. It's it's surreal, and I'm sure people

354
00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,240
Speaker 3: are like watching it on TV when you see the

355
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,840
Speaker 3: pass get deflected and you see Yukon pick it up.

356
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:19,200
Speaker 2: Even though you don't.

357
00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:22,800
Speaker 3: Say anything, in your brain, you're thinking like, like, they

358
00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,240
Speaker 3: can win this game if they hit this three, and

359
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 3: then it goes in and you're like, oh my god,

360
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,040
Speaker 3: they actually just won the game. So it was it

361
00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,480
Speaker 3: was crazy. The crowd pop was nuts seeing all the

362
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:35,760
Speaker 3: Duke fans with the surrend the Cobra, it was pretty

363
00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,560
Speaker 3: it was pretty amazing. And then all the Yukon fans

364
00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:43,480
Speaker 3: just going ballistic was something I will I will never forget.

365
00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:46,240
Speaker 3: So it was it was really cool being there. I'm

366
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,760
Speaker 3: glad Ukon made it a game because it looked like

367
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 3: for a while there it was just gonna be another blowout,

368
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,440
Speaker 3: but they started making their run. It just never felt

369
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,720
Speaker 3: like Duke was going to lose. Which when Caravan hit

370
00:16:57,760 --> 00:16:59,680
Speaker 3: that three to cut it to one with fifty seconds,

371
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,440
Speaker 3: that the first time when I was like, oh, like

372
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,359
Speaker 3: Duke actually like might lose this thing. And then you

373
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 3: know when they got to steal and Mullens at the shot, where.

374
00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:10,919
Speaker 1: Does that Where does the shot itself, not the comeback,

375
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,960
Speaker 1: but the shot itself ranked for you in terms of like,

376
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:15,520
Speaker 1: like I think I think it's very easy to say

377
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,119
Speaker 1: it's one of the best shots in tournament history, but

378
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,280
Speaker 1: like for you just personally in terms of like shots

379
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:22,040
Speaker 1: that you remember where you were watching it go down,

380
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,439
Speaker 1: Like that's got it, especially being there in person, but

381
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 1: like that's gotta feel like I think I think about

382
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,560
Speaker 1: the you know you and Shenkins. I was gonna say

383
00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:30,800
Speaker 1: un ce Villanova finished the back to back with Page

384
00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,359
Speaker 1: and Jenkins is like probably number one. You know, if

385
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,680
Speaker 1: Gordon Hayward's shot had gone in to beat Duke, that

386
00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 1: would have been in it. But like, there's not many

387
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:39,800
Speaker 1: I can think of more where like I remember where

388
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,080
Speaker 1: I was for the shot.

389
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,840
Speaker 3: I agree, and I think wormw makes the play so

390
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,000
Speaker 3: incredible is that it was a broken play. Like usually

391
00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,280
Speaker 3: game winners, the team has the ball, they dribble it

392
00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:51,800
Speaker 3: up or you know, they have a side.

393
00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,040
Speaker 1: Act, yes, run the poll, the time out.

394
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,000
Speaker 3: The fact that this was just like a chaotic broken

395
00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 3: play that led to that, I think is what makes it,

396
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,440
Speaker 3: what makes it what it was. So yeah, I mean

397
00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,960
Speaker 3: in our lifetime and certainly over the last twenty thirty years.

398
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 3: I mean look Lakener and Lorenzo Charles and all those stuff,

399
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,840
Speaker 3: you know in the eighties and nineties, but in terms

400
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 3: of the last like twenty twenty five years outside of

401
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 3: Chris Jenkins, I know San Diego State had the game

402
00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:22,120
Speaker 3: winner against FAU as well, which is a Final four game,

403
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,479
Speaker 3: but yeah, this one, Duke and you come just as

404
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 3: way to.

405
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:29,200
Speaker 2: Feel as prestigious. Yeah it doesn't. So I agree, I

406
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:33,200
Speaker 2: think it could be too. Yeah, pretty pretty remarkable stuff there. Yeah.

407
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I said, I mean, I think I think

408
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,560
Speaker 1: it's hard to bet it ultimately hard to get betting

409
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:42,399
Speaker 1: against Ukon. You're making the case for going going with

410
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,119
Speaker 1: kind of some in game betting and first half stuff

411
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 1: rather than kind of taking the whole game any other

412
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,439
Speaker 1: kind of final thoughts on the matchup, just like, is

413
00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 1: there is there a particular matchup you like, like player

414
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 1: versus player that you know when one team hasn't you know,

415
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,080
Speaker 1: Woggler obviously has been the freshman sensation. Reid has been

416
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,280
Speaker 1: like maybe the best player in the entire tournament so

417
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,159
Speaker 1: far in March. You know, do you have a matchup

418
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 1: that you like and keeping an eye on for who

419
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 1: wins the game?

420
00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:06,919
Speaker 3: I have two player props that I like in the

421
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:11,440
Speaker 3: Michigan Arizona game. I haven't bet anything yet in Illinois Yukon.

422
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,159
Speaker 3: The guy on Yukon that I was interested in was

423
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 3: Tarras Reeis because he's been so dominant and Yukon has

424
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 3: made it a point to really feature him inside and

425
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 3: Hurly wants to see how the other teams are defending that.

426
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 3: Michigan State and Duke have just decided most of the

427
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,159
Speaker 3: game to let Tarras Reed go one on one, and

428
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 3: he's carved them up. Illinois, with their size and the

429
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 3: depth that they have at big you would probably expect

430
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 3: Underwood to do the same. But again, the way that

431
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 3: they shot the three ball against Duke, does he force

432
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 3: them to shoot some threes and prove to you know

433
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 3: him that the Yukon can beat him from outside?

434
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 2: So Reid would be the guy.

435
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,160
Speaker 3: I just don't know after the games that he's had

436
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,960
Speaker 3: the last couple if Illinois decides to trap him or

437
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 3: playing one on one and then Illinois they're just a

438
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,120
Speaker 3: team that does it by committee.

439
00:19:58,119 --> 00:19:58,639
Speaker 2: Committee.

440
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 3: Woggler would probably be the same this bet. But Stoyakovic

441
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 3: just played really well in the tournament. Mirkovich, it is

442
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 3: always a guy like Markovich. I think you're almost better

443
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: like betting alts. You know, it seems like he's either

444
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:12,320
Speaker 3: going for like eight or twelve points a game, or

445
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 3: you could give you like twenty four points a game.

446
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 3: But yeah, nothing, nothing for me. I think the matchup

447
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 3: thol most interested in is what is Underwood in Illinois

448
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 3: game plan for terrorist Reed. Do they decide to just

449
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 3: play them one on one or do they decide to

450
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 3: bring some help and try and double them.

451
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 1: Let's take a moment to tell everybody about Omaha Steaks.

452
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,040
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453
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,920
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454
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455
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456
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457
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458
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:47,480
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459
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460
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461
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462
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463
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464
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465
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466
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467
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Speaker 1: almost lunchtime right now as we're taping this show for

470
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471
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477
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 1: terms apply seasite for details, PJ. I'll tell you what's

478
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: making my mouthwater is this question. I want to sneak

479
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 1: in here before we get to the next game. John Shire.

480
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 2: Is he on the hot seat at all?

481
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 3: He is not enough? I think I think he's fine.

482
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 3: Not quite the same situation as Hubert Davis. I think

483
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 3: he's okay, not exactly the same.

484
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 1: Although it was very fun as a Marylyn fan who

485
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 1: you know, cheered against Shire when Maryland was still in

486
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,360
Speaker 1: the acc seeing the old Shire face come up when

487
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 1: he kind of saw the shot going down, it was

488
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 1: very fun. Jokes aside, is there any bit of a

489
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 1: like he has to win one to get rid of

490
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 1: this choker narrative at this point. I mean, last year's

491
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 1: team like it looks even better in hindsight with how

492
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: Konk Nipple has looked in the NBA. And obviously we

493
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 1: know what Cooper Flag was like. That team was insanely good.

494
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 1: Now this team was a number one team and ken

495
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,160
Speaker 1: if I'm going into the tournament number one.

496
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 2: Overall seed, very very good.

497
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 1: If they had got knocked off by Arizona or Michigan

498
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:35,199
Speaker 1: in the title game, I don't think we would be

499
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 1: saying this. But to lose, to not even get to

500
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: the final four, I think, you know, and considering the

501
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 1: way it happened right last year with the Houston collapse,

502
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 1: you know, which was a different type of collapse, but

503
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 1: a collapse. Nonetheless, this year sort of that more slow

504
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 1: burn collapse nineteen point lead that you lose. I mean,

505
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 1: I I don't know, watching that game, if I feel like, oh,

506
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 1: this was like early out coaching him, if this was

507
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 1: just like, hey, sometimes things happen like shots don't go

508
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 1: and players make plays, right like if Caiden Boozer doesn't

509
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 1: try to throw that pass like Duke wins the game.

510
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 1: So it's like, how much blame do you want to

511
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: put on Shire? But having said all that, like, is

512
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 1: this narrative kind of with him now until he wins one?

513
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 3: I think it is a little bit, especially the fact

514
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 3: that it's happening back to back years and how they

515
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 3: lost that Yukon game. What I would say about Shire though,

516
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 3: is this is his first run at getting head coaching experience, right, So,

517
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 3: like for a lot of these guys that get to

518
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 3: these types of programs, they have to go through the

519
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 3: ranks a little bit and they learn how to be

520
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 3: a head coach. It's some of these smaller mid majors

521
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 3: and they have years under their belt. Shire's kind of

522
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 3: learning as he goes. And so you know, because he's

523
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 3: a duke and he's on a national stage, he has

524
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 3: to learn how to lose a little bit tougher than

525
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 3: a lot of these other teams have to. But he's

526
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 3: still gonna get the talent, he's still going to get

527
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 3: the recruits, His teams are still going to profile really

528
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 3: good analytically, He's he's gonna win one at Duke. But

529
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 3: I mean this definitely some scars on you, you know,

530
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 3: and and and it's tough and it but his his teams.

531
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 3: If he just if he keeps building like he is,

532
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 3: they're gonna be too good where eventually one of them

533
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,399
Speaker 3: will get through. But yeah, now that it's happened two

534
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 3: years in a row, Worm, I think going into the

535
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 3: tournament next year, if Duke is a number one seed,

536
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 3: you know, they're one of the betting favorites. I think

537
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 3: a lot of the.

538
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: No, nobody's gonna care now, like the season starts in

539
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: the final four for them. Basically, it's it's sort of

540
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 1: like you and I are both Ravens fans. It's sort

541
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: of like, how like nobody cares what happens in the

542
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: regular season in Baltimore anymore. It's just what is Lamar

543
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 1: do in January? If it's the same thing here, Like,

544
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 1: nobody's gonna care if they're like, you know, a net

545
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 1: rating of plus thirty eight on Ken Palm next year

546
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 1: and have a clearcut top three pick on the roster

547
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 1: and or the number one overall seed, it's not gonna

548
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 1: matter until we see it happen in March for this team.

549
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 1: So yeah, all right, let's get to the main course,

550
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 1: which maybe is a little disrespectful to Illinois kind of

551
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 1: if that's an appetizer. It's like an appetizer sampler. You're

552
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: getting a crab dip, You're getting Mazzarell's that you're getting

553
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 1: like a whole lot out of that appetite, and yet

554
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 1: the main course is still Arizona Michigan. This is one

555
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: of the great matchups going into the matchup that we've

556
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 1: seen in a long time. Obviously we have had amazing

557
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 1: games that this maybe won't live up to, but on

558
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,679
Speaker 1: paper ahead of the matchup, I can't remember when like this.

559
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 1: I think I texted you that I think this is

560
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,199
Speaker 1: the matchup I'm most excited for since Gonzaga Baylor in

561
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: the title game a few years ago. I'm not sure

562
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: what else is on that list. I believe Ken Palm

563
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 1: they do like a thrill score for the game based

564
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 1: on not just like where the teams are ranked, but

565
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 1: like tempo and is there gonna be a lot of offense,

566
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: and of course like significance of the game. This is

567
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 1: the highest thrill score of all time.

568
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 2: I believe.

569
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: I saw that on Twitter Michigan's number one team and

570
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 1: Ken Pom. Of course Arizona is number two, Michigan favored

571
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 1: by one and a half. That line has stayed pretty

572
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: steady since it dropped over under. Last I looked was

573
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 1: one fifty seven and a half. Ken Pom sees this

574
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 1: as a one point game, the total one to fifty seven.

575
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: You called this out, PJ. We were talking about the

576
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: Elite eight. The net rate of these two teams, Like,

577
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: not only are they one and two, it's plus thirty

578
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: eight point nine to four and plus thirty eight point

579
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: eight six. Like this is just about as close as

580
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: it gets right now. Michigan's the number five team on offense,

581
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: number one team on defense, Arizona's number four team on offense,

582
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: number two team on defense. They're both inside the top

583
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: sixty in adjusted tempo. Like this is it they have?

584
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 1: Like Arizona went through the best conference of college basketball,

585
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: winning both titles. You know, Michigan obviously going through the

586
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 1: Big Ten, which is very strong. It looks even stronger

587
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: throughout the tournament, played some big games as well. Michigan's

588
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: thirty five and three, Arizona thirty six to two. I'm

589
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: just I'm just continuing to throw out numbers because it's

590
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 1: so exciting to throw them out. It's just as a

591
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: fun of a matchup as I could. We could have

592
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: possibly imagined, and I can't wait to watch it. Two

593
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: teams that are driven by balanced, two teams that are

594
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 1: driven by size, which is sort of fun in this

595
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 1: modern era. So that's enough of me talking. What do

596
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 1: you think about this game? I know you're very excited

597
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 1: for it, but let's dive into the specifics.

598
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, you said you haven't been as excited since Gonzaga Baylor.

599
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 3: I think for me, like I remember how I felt

600
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 3: watching that Duke UNC Final four game in Coach K's

601
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 3: final year, like minutes before that, I think it's gonna

602
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 3: be a similar similar feeling when these teams tip off.

603
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 2: Great game.

604
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 3: These teams are kind of mirror images of each other

605
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 3: worm as you mentioned, I mean analytically, they profile pretty similarly.

606
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 3: I think the biggest difference is the three point line

607
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 3: between these two teams, and I think it's the reason

608
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 3: Michigan is a slight favorite. I think if both teams

609
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 3: played their A game, I think Michigan's A game is

610
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 3: just a little bit stronger than Arizona's because of their

611
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 3: ability to shoot the three. And that's not to say

612
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 3: Arizona can't shoot the three, it's just not really what

613
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 3: they do I mean Bury's will attempt some. Del or

614
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 3: So would attempt some, but they don't have stretch fives.

615
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 3: You know, Coapete doesn't really shoot a lot of threes

616
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 3: like a Waka Krevas. These guys, you know, they're just

617
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,120
Speaker 3: in there for rebounding in defense Michigan. It's the same

618
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 3: sort of thing with Mara Morez Johnson, Like these guys

619
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 3: don't shoot very These guys don't shoot any threes. But

620
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 3: the forwards and guards for Michigan are a lot stronger

621
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: shooters and they shoot a lot more threes. And I

622
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 3: mean Ronnie Gale off the bench and Trey McKinney off

623
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 3: the bench. We all wondered what the loss of Ljkson

624
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 3: would do for Michigan in the tournament. I mean, people

625
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 3: have forgotten about him because of how well the reserves

626
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 3: had played. Elliott Cadou is still shooting like thirty seven

627
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 3: percent from deep in the tournament, and he's by far

628
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 3: the worst one. So that's what's most impressive to me

629
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 3: so far about Michigan. Normally, when a team goes to

630
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 3: the final four wins a national championship, you have like

631
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 3: one game offensively where you just have a dud where

632
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 3: you can't make anything. For Yukon, it was that game

633
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 3: against Duke. For Illinois, it was the game against Houston.

634
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 3: And those teams are really good and the reason that

635
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 3: they're here is because of their defense, and they were

636
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 3: able to find ways to win those games. Michigan scored

637
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 3: ninety or more points in every game that they've played

638
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 3: so far in the tournament, so that begs the question

639
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 3: can they keep it up? And if they can, how

640
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 3: many threes is Arizona need to make to keep pace

641
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: with Michigan. Arizona, like you said, though, I mean, they

642
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 3: had a really strong non conference and they went undefeated.

643
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 3: They won the Big Twelve regular season, they won the

644
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 3: Big Twelve conference tournament, and now here they are in

645
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 3: the final four. I picked them pre tournament to win

646
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 3: the title because I thought they were the most consistently

647
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 3: good team all year. I still feel that way. But yeah,

648
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 3: Michigan knocking down threes would be my big concern in

649
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 3: this game. I haven't bet aside yet. I'll probably throw

650
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 3: a little bit on Arizona. The bet that I have

651
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 3: made where them is I took the first half over

652
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 3: at seventy three and a half in this game. Michigan

653
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 3: and Arizona are two of the top seven teams in

654
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 3: the country and first half scoring points per game. A

655
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: couple of those other teams in the top seven, Bama's

656
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 3: up there, Arkansas's up there, High Points up there. Well,

657
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 3: we've seen those teams play each other so far. Michigan

658
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 3: and Bamo was like nearly one hundred point first half,

659
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 3: Arkansas and High Point combined for eighty five points. So

660
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 3: we've already seen like a lot of these a couple

661
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 3: of these teams play and they've been high scoring first halfs.

662
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 3: I think we could get the same thing in this game.

663
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 3: You mentioned the pace as well, and both of these

664
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 3: teams are better defensively in the second half than they

665
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 3: are in the first half. Right, So they come out,

666
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 3: they have their game plans, their good defensive teams, but

667
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 3: then when they get in the locker room, they really

668
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 3: make adjustments. And I think we saw that with Arizona

669
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 3: when they took on Purdue and how their defense can

670
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 3: just kind of overwhelm you. It was the same thing

671
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 3: with Michigan in Alabama where Bama dropped forty nine. Their

672
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 3: offense was cooking. Michigan makes some adjustments, so I like

673
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 3: the first half angle in that game. You do worry

674
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 3: about the fact that, again it's the Final Four. There's

675
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 3: some nerves. They're playing in an NFL stadium, Maybe the debt, perception, sitelines,

676
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 3: all those sorts of things are off. If that be

677
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 3: the case, so be it. I just think seventy three

678
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: and a half is too low, So I took the

679
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 3: first half over there. But yeah, I lean Arizona in

680
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 3: the game at plus one h five, even though I

681
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 3: think Michigan is a little better and I think their

682
00:30:56,440 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 3: A game is better. I'll take the more consistent team

683
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 3: in Arizona because there's always the fear with Michigan that

684
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 3: maybe they just don't hit their outside shots and also

685
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 3: free throws in that they just turn the ball over

686
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 3: way too much.

687
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 1: This is another example of a one coach has been

688
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: to a Final four before. It's not the same level

689
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: disparity of experience as Yukon Illinois, but like Dusty May

690
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 1: has you know, gone on a tournament run before, Arizona

691
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: under Tommy Lloyd has famously not you know, gotten this

692
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 1: far before, So.

693
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 2: Maybe a little bit of an experience different there.

694
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: I think it's really important to not like the relative

695
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 1: strength at the top of the sport the last two years.

696
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 1: I don't want to let that color just how strong

697
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: these teams are, because we've.

698
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 2: Had a lot of really really, really.

699
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: Good, talented, experienced, well coached one seeds the last two

700
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: seasons that I don't want to let that get in

701
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 1: the way of the fact that these are the two

702
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: best non duke teams in the history of Ken Palm's

703
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 1: net rating like, which goes back to nineteen ninety seven.

704
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: They are the two highest net ratings right now. They

705
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: are currently higher than that twenty four Yukon team. They're

706
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 1: higher than the twenty one Gonzaga team that lost the

707
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: Baylor in the title game. They're like whatever great team

708
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: you can think of. The net rating for the Michigan

709
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 1: and Arizona is higher. They are two of the top

710
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 1: four in the Ken Pom era and the other two

711
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 1: the only two that are higher than them are last

712
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: year's Duke and ninety nine Duke.

713
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 2: So net rating, I'm not saying it's the ball and all.

714
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that these are like, oh, because of that,

715
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 1: you have to just call them the two of the

716
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: four best teams the century or anything like that. But

717
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 1: I just think it speaks to like, even as strong

718
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: as the one Seeds have been the last two seasons,

719
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: these two teams right now do stand above by net

720
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: rating over even those other great amazing teams and the

721
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 1: other great elite teams you can think of in recent memory.

722
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: They're just really really excellent teams. I'm kind of with

723
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: you in Arizona.

724
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 2: I don't know.

725
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 1: If it's just like I feel like like Arizona is

726
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: of these two teams, is the one that came closer

727
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 1: to a perfect season, right Like, obviously there's no undefeated

728
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 1: team here, but like they just lost the two back

729
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: to back games, one of them in overtime, one of

730
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:09,719
Speaker 1: them by just a few points. Michigan only lost three game,

731
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 1: but I feel like, like Arizona, I feel like you

732
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 1: could easily have painted a version of the season, a

733
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 1: picture of this season where they're undefeated right now Michigan,

734
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: like I do think in watching them, I agree with you.

735
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: I think they're high is higher than Arizona when they're

736
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 1: at their best. But I didn't see a world where

737
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: they were undefeated like I felt like they in watching them,

738
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 1: even when they before they had lost a game, I

739
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 1: felt like this is a team that is going to lose.

740
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 1: They're really really good, but they're gonna lose a game

741
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 1: here or there. You know, one of these Big ten

742
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: teams is gonna knock them off. Arizona. I watch them,

743
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: I'm like, I don't understand how they ever lose because

744
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: they're so like the floor is so high that like

745
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: if one part of their game is like the shots

746
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 1: aren't dropping, well, okay, fine, they can get shots at

747
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: the rim at will. I just use their sides like

748
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,719
Speaker 1: it is it isn't. And I've said this before, like

749
00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 1: there are teams that are are big in basketball this year,

750
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,719
Speaker 1: but you don't feel the size with them as much

751
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 1: as you feel it watching Arizona. Like if I did

752
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,280
Speaker 1: not know the heights and weights of these players listed

753
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 1: before him, and I was just watching the game, I

754
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: would walk away from this tournam saying, well, Arizona is

755
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 1: the biggest team of all time, Like like this way

756
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: they play, you feel the size so like, I just

757
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 1: feel like they're so flawless as a team.

758
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 2: Not to say that they can't lose.

759
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,320
Speaker 1: Of course they have lost, and Michigan's ranked higher and

760
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 1: ken Pom like they're really really good too, I'm not

761
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 1: saying it's like a lock or anything like that, but

762
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 1: I just watched a serious and like, I just don't

763
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: see how they ever lose.

764
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 2: It's crazy.

765
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 1: It's so the fact that they are slight underdogs. I

766
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 1: tend to lean towards them and betting the game. If

767
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: Michigan was the underdog, I'd probably be betting them, Like, right,

768
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: it's one of those games where they're so good and

769
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 1: they're so close that if you're gonna give me your

770
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: plus money on either side, I kind of just want

771
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 1: to blindly take that. Also, like I have basically made

772
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: all of my money betting on this tournament by betting

773
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 1: Arizona overs. I don't care that the number continues to

774
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 1: be super high, Like it just keeps panning out. Now,

775
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 1: these are the two best defenses in ken Pom, So

776
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: you know, maybe that scares you off of a number,

777
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 1: you know, in the upper one fifties, But like I

778
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 1: kind of just want to take the over again and say, like,

779
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 1: this is a fun over game, right, Like I want

780
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: to see it go over, and I think there's a

781
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:16,720
Speaker 1: lot of worlds where it does happen.

782
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 2: But it's just an awesome game.

783
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 1: I mean, you could probably hear the smiles in our

784
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 1: voices talking about this matchup, just the giddy with anticipation.

785
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 2: Is there a specific player that you want to own

786
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 2: in on here?

787
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're actually two, and it's both of the stars

788
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,879
Speaker 3: Bury's and lindenborg Worm. Their points prop are both. It's

789
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 3: sixteen and a half for this game, and I think

790
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 3: it's too short for both of these players. So yaxll

791
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 3: if you go back and look this season, he scored

792
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:48,280
Speaker 3: twenty points or more in ten games this year. Okay,

793
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 3: I want you to listen to the teams that he

794
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 3: scored twenty points or more against. Gonzaga, Purdue, Duke, Bama,

795
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 3: Saint Louis, Michigan State twice, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, and Maryland.

796
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 3: He had twenty nine against the Turfs when they were

797
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 3: giving him a game, and that was a game before

798
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,839
Speaker 3: the game and he's like, oh, all right, I got

799
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 3: I gotta step off and take over here a little bit.

800
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 3: The point being the biggest games, Yaxle has showed up

801
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 3: and he's played great. Round of thirty two, Saint Louis

802
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 3: twenty five, Round of sixteen, Bama twenty three, Tennessee Elite eight,

803
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 3: twenty seven. The bigger the game, the better he plays.

804
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 3: And it's almost like again, he's only had twenty or

805
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 3: more points this season. Michigan is so balanced, they're so deep.

806
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,760
Speaker 3: Some games he's like, Mara, you go ahead, Morez Johnson,

807
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 3: you go ahead, Cado, you go ahead. But these big games,

808
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 3: I mean, he's a six year college player. This is

809
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 3: why he transferred to Michigan. He shoots a lot in

810
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 3: these big games. So if Michigan's going down, they're going

811
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 3: down with their best player. I just think sixteen and

812
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,919
Speaker 3: a half is too low. So I took him over

813
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 3: points there, and then Braydon Burry's I took over points

814
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 3: as well because I was going through and looking at

815
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 3: some of his games this season and worm, as you know,

816
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 3: there are certain players that thrive when games are played

817
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 3: at a fast pace. There are other players that thrive

818
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,919
Speaker 3: in a half court kind of game. Burry's loves an

819
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 3: open floor kind of game. He loves when it's fast pace.

820
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 3: Against Arkansas in the Sweet sixteen, he had twenty three points.

821
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 3: The other game so far in the tournament, his highest.

822
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 2: Point game is sixteen.

823
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 3: He had twenty eight against Bama earlier this year, twenty

824
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 3: eight against Kansas State, who plays at a super fast

825
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 3: paced twenty nine against BYU. Like a lot of his

826
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:33,720
Speaker 3: highest point totals have come against really good offensive teams

827
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 3: that want to play fast, and that's what Michigan is.

828
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 3: So I know it's tricky with these teams because they're

829
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 3: so well balanced, and again, any of these players can

830
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 3: kind of go off. I was leaning towards maybe taking

831
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 3: Jayden Bradley's point over because he's a senior, He's stepped

832
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 3: up for them in a lot of big games. He's

833
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 3: probably gonna play just about every minute of this game,

834
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,360
Speaker 3: as should Bury's. He's gonna play probably north of thirty

835
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 3: five minutes. But what sold me on taking Burry's was

836
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 3: just these open floor kind of games, fast paced that

837
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 3: that's where he's great because he's so good in transition.

838
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 3: He tends to shoot a little bit more three pointers

839
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 3: in these types of games. So yeah, I'd look Lendenborg

840
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 3: over Bury's over. I maybe look at some alts with

841
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 3: both of those guys too, because I think the potential

842
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 3: of both of them having some big nights is there

843
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 3: as well. So those were those were two player props

844
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:23,760
Speaker 3: that I bet in that game.

845
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 1: Again, we have talked about this before before we move

846
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 1: off this game. Do you see this as the title

847
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 1: game or do you think, like, like, are you giving

848
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: a real shot to Yukonna Illinois.

849
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 3: I see this as the title game, and I can

850
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 3: tell you whoever wins Michigan Arizona I will bet them spread.

851
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 3: So I would expect it to be four and a half,

852
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 3: five and a half Illinois, Yukon, whatever it is, I'll

853
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 3: bet Michigan area.

854
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: I think it would need to be a very surprising number.

855
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 1: It would need to be like eight and a half

856
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 1: for me to be like maybe I will take the

857
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 1: you know, yukonnor Illinois.

858
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 2: I agree with you.

859
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 1: I think if it's anything under like six, I'm just

860
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 1: goind to auto bet this on whoever wins this game

861
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 1: in the title game.

862
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 3: Another fun betworm. I think I'm going to bet overtime

863
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 3: in Michigan in Arizona, it's like sixteen to one, little sprinkle.

864
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 3: As you know and as people know that I've watched

865
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 3: college basketball this year, feels like every high profile game

866
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 3: that we've had, every game that we're like excited for,

867
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 3: has kind of lived up to the hype. Like they've

868
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,280
Speaker 3: all been awesome. They've all come down to the wire.

869
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 3: Duke Yukon was another thriller. That was the Elite eight

870
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 3: game we were all most excited for. So there's so

871
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 3: much excitement and there's so much just people are really

872
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,399
Speaker 3: can't wait for this game to get going. I think

873
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 3: it's gonna deliver. And because of that, I you know,

874
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 3: sixteen to one, why not so bet a little overtime

875
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:46,280
Speaker 3: In Arizona, Michigan.

876
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,439
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916
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 1: it's time now for the hard Rock Best Bets of

917
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 1: the Week, presented by hard Rock Bet. Here are favorite

918
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 1: Bets of the Week. Will each give one PJ my

919
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 1: favorite bet of the Week. I just can't get away

920
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 1: from it. You know how I feel about Brad Order.

921
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: Would you know how I feel about Dan Hurley. I'm

922
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: just gonna take you Yukon money like you. I cannot

923
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 1: phrase it any better than you phrase it. It's essentially

924
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 1: getting mahomes plus money in January. I'm just gonna blindly

925
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,720
Speaker 1: take that, especially against the coach that I enjoy. Fading

926
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: in the tournament. Illinois is really good if they win

927
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: it will totally shock me.

928
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:24,399
Speaker 2: Again.

929
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:26,799
Speaker 1: These are really good matchups. They're gonna be hard to

930
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 1: bet for a reason. But if I had to pick

931
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 1: a favorite this week, give me just blindly Hurley over

932
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 1: Underwood with Hurley as an underdog, and I'll just ride

933
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:34,839
Speaker 1: that all the way to the bank.

934
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 2: So that's my favorite bet of the week. What's yours.

935
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:38,760
Speaker 3: My favorite bet of the week's gonna be that first

936
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 3: half over in Michigan in Arizona over seventy three and

937
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 3: a half. You have two teams that throughout the season

938
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 3: in top seven and first half scoring. Their defenses are

939
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 3: better in the second half than they are in the

940
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 3: first half. I think this game is gonna have a

941
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 3: good pace to it. Worm. I mean, as you mentioned,

942
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 3: both two teams top sixty and tempo Corn and Ken Palm.

943
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 3: Michigan's twenty second Arizona doesn't mind playing that kind of

944
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 3: game up and down, so I think I think we

945
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 3: get some good scoring. I think it's like a forty

946
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 3: two to thirty eight kind of game at halftime. So

947
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 3: I go first half over seventy three and a half

948
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 3: Michigan Arizona.

949
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 2: I like that one quite a bit as well. You've

950
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 2: definitely sold me on that bet.

951
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:15,240
Speaker 1: Those were our hard Rock bets of the week. Now's

952
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953
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955
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958
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,439
Speaker 1: stakes are at their highest, and those heart stopping zero

959
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,919
Speaker 1: on the clock moments we've seen all tournament, they still pay.

960
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961
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962
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963
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,560
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964
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,800
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965
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968
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970
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971
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Speaker 4: the Seminal Tribe with Florida and Florida offered by the

972
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 4: Seminal Hard Rock. Did you LLC in other states? Must

973
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 4: be twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,

974
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms of conditions apply.

975
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 4: Concerned about gambling in Florida, I'll call one eight three

976
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 4: three play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you

977
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 4: know as a gambling problem, wants help, called one eight

978
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,439
Speaker 4: hundred and nine with it, gambling problem called one hundred

979
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 4: gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

980
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 2: PJ.

981
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: Let's wrap up with just some quick official national championship predictions.

982
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,240
Speaker 1: If there's a future you like on any of these teams,

983
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 1: if you want to just pick what you think the

984
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: matchup's gonna look like and who you think is gonna win,

985
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 1: however you want to take it. But what are our

986
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:37,320
Speaker 1: national title thoughts?

987
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 2: Yeah?

988
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 3: So again, Arizona was my pick at the start of

989
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 3: the tournament. I'm gonna ride with them.

990
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 1: You haven't seen anything to get off them, right, Like,

991
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 1: what would possibly have scared you away at this point? Right?

992
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,320
Speaker 3: And I think same goes for if you like Michigan

993
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 3: to win the tournament, there should be nothing up to

994
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 3: this point that has scared you off Michigan. So both

995
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,360
Speaker 3: are plus one seventy five to win the tourney. I

996
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:04,719
Speaker 3: think it's going to be Arizona versus Yukon. I still

997
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 3: don't know who I think is gonna win that game.

998
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 3: That could go either way. I'll go Arizona over Yukon.

999
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 3: I do think Arizona cuts down the nets. Just keep

1000
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 3: in mind the one thing I will say about Illinois,

1001
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,359
Speaker 3: if they were to win the title, they are going

1002
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 3: to cross off two historical data points that a lot

1003
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 3: of people usually love to use to pick a winner,

1004
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 3: where there's never been a team that has lost their

1005
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:30,720
Speaker 3: first conference tournament game and won a national title. Illinois

1006
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 3: lost to Wisconsin in their first game, and the Week

1007
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 3: six eight people. There hasn't been a team in the

1008
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 3: last twenty years that has been inside the top twelve

1009
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 3: or outside the top twelve. And the Week six eight

1010
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 3: people and won the title. Illinois was thirteen, so they

1011
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 3: were right there. But again, you're talking about two huge

1012
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 3: data points. They usually when oh, ken palm, you gotta

1013
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:53,240
Speaker 3: be this and that, you gotta be you know, shoot

1014
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 3: this defensively, shoot this from the free throw whatever it

1015
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 3: may be. Talking about two big things. So if Illinois

1016
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 3: were to win the title, they be a pretty historic winner.

1017
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 3: So why I kind of crossed them out. I think

1018
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 3: it's between the other three, So I'll I'll go with Arizona. Still.

1019
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 1: Well, the third big historical data point, which you alluded

1020
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,800
Speaker 1: to earlier, is the Big Ten not winning a title.

1021
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 2: That would be another one that's.

1022
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 1: Been over twenty twenty five years since it's happened if

1023
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: they end up winning.

1024
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1025
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 1: The other thing with Illinois that I'll say is just

1026
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 1: like this is the worst defense remaining in the field now.

1027
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 2: So it's the defensive ratings of Ken Palm.

1028
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 1: Are one two nine is Yukon and the twentieth is Illinois.

1029
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 1: Do I think on that it's Illinois has defended better

1030
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:33,959
Speaker 1: in the tournament. Yeah, they've held three straight teams under

1031
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:37,280
Speaker 1: sixty points. Like I didn't think Illinois, especially facing actual

1032
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 1: good tournament quality teams. Now Iowa slower paced team, right,

1033
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 1: Houston has long been defensive first, like all that stuff.

1034
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 1: So like there are some context with those numbers, but

1035
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 1: like I did not think I would ever be saying

1036
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 1: that about an Illinois team. This is the number one

1037
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 1: offense in ken Bomb, their team that's driven by their offense.

1038
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:55,360
Speaker 1: To hold three straight teams in the tournament under sixty,

1039
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 1: I do think is impressive. But at the same time,

1040
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 1: like Yukon, I mean, PJ Yukon was one for eighteen

1041
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 1: on their first eighteen three pointers against Duke. If they

1042
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 1: hit like four of those, they're still shooting a bad percentage,

1043
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 1: But they win that game, like maybe not comfortably, but

1044
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 1: like with a little more certainty and a little more like,

1045
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 1: oh this Yukon's figuring out type of momentum, it might

1046
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 1: feel like.

1047
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 2: So like I don't know that game.

1048
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 1: They're both really really fun of course, but like that

1049
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 1: game is really fascinating to me in terms of Illinois.

1050
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: Can their defense do to Yukon's shooting, which has been

1051
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,280
Speaker 1: a problem for a lot of the year, what Duke's

1052
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 1: defense did and you know, make them have to figure

1053
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 1: out another way to get there. So that's that's interesting

1054
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 1: to me on that And at the end of the day,

1055
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: like I think, you just have to pick your favorite

1056
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 1: of Michigan Arizona and pick them. Arizona has been my

1057
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 1: pick throughout I will win your bracket pool if Arizona

1058
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:50,400
Speaker 1: beats Yukon in the title game. So that's obviously what

1059
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 1: I'm strongly pulling for. You're encouraging me to hedge of

1060
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 1: it on Michigan, which I probably will ultimately do. But

1061
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:00,319
Speaker 1: but yeah, Arizona over Yukon is what I want to see.

1062
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 1: I think if I'm making an official prediction, not just

1063
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 1: what I want, I think I'm gonna as much as

1064
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 1: I keep going all in on the value of Yukon

1065
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 1: as an underdog, I think I'm gonna say Arizona Illinois

1066
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 1: is going to be the title game with Arizona winning,

1067
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 1: and I think Arizona wins that comfortably. I think I

1068
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:21,399
Speaker 1: think you're right. Arizona Michigan is the is the title game,

1069
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna pick Arizona out of it. So I'm

1070
00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 1: gonna pick them to win and cover against Illinois as

1071
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 1: my looking ahead prediction. I wouldn't even mind, you know,

1072
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:33,000
Speaker 1: putting just pick your favorite of Michigan Arizona and just

1073
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 1: kind of blindly put a future on them at plus

1074
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 1: one seventy five, like whoever you think is gonna win

1075
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:39,240
Speaker 1: the game, that number is gonna look a lot worse

1076
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:39,759
Speaker 1: when that.

1077
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 2: Team wins the game.

1078
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:44,399
Speaker 1: So it's essentially a plus one seventy five money line

1079
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 1: bet on either of these teams to win this week.

1080
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 2: So I like that as well.

1081
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 1: But yeah, any other kind of final thoughts here, Like

1082
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 1: I said, we're gonna have our live stream on Sunday,

1083
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,799
Speaker 1: that will be the last sort of one of these

1084
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 1: shows that we've had. You know, we've done a lot

1085
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 1: of these throughout March here, any kind of final thoughts

1086
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:00,120
Speaker 1: on the tournament so far as we had in two

1087
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 1: what's going to be an amazing couple of days of basketball.

1088
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:03,879
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1089
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:06,479
Speaker 3: Look, I mean we've talked about how difficult these games

1090
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 3: are to handicap. They're both one and a half point spreads.

1091
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 3: They're both toss up games. They could go either way,

1092
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 3: and if this tournament has shown us anything, we've seen

1093
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:16,319
Speaker 3: a lot of big comebacks. So don't be afraid to

1094
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:18,799
Speaker 3: just wait and try and bet these teams live. You know,

1095
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 3: maybe you'll get Illinois at nine and a half, maybe

1096
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 3: you'll get Yukon at twelve and a half, maybe you'll

1097
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 3: get Arizona at eight and a half. Whatever, it may be,

1098
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 3: as great as it is to try and pick a

1099
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:30,279
Speaker 3: winner at the start of the game. Don't feel like

1100
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 3: you need to just wait for these games to play

1101
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 3: out because like, for example, the Yukon Michigan State game,

1102
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 3: where I didn't really have any strong thoughts on that,

1103
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 3: but when Michigan State was eight and a half, I'm like, Okay,

1104
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:42,840
Speaker 3: now that's a bet that I like.

1105
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 2: Right.

1106
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 3: So those those sorts of things, we've seen big comebacks.

1107
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 3: No lead is safe in this tournament, especially when you

1108
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 3: get the farther and farther you go. So yeah, that

1109
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 3: would be my other piece of advice, you know, don't

1110
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 3: be afraid of a live wager.

1111
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 2: Oh we're head and wrap things up there.

1112
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 1: Be sure to check out our live streams at twelve

1113
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern for PJ.

1114
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 2: I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks everybody for tuning in.

1115
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:07,919
Speaker 1: Best to luck betting this awesome, awesome, awesome final four.

1116
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 2: We'll see you next time.

1117
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

1118
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:15,360
Speaker 1: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

1119
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 1: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

1120
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:21,759
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1121
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 1: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

1122
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com. Slash Betting Pros