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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 2: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly

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Speaker 2: source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and

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Speaker 2: whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,

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Speaker 2: here's your host, Paul Chargion.

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Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. I am

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Speaker 1: Paul Charchi in joining me this week. Matt Harrison, Hi,

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Speaker 1: listening to be back. Three of the last Yeah, this

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Speaker 1: is a big stretch for you. Yeah, I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: totally my time of year. It is. It is. It's

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Speaker 1: Scott fish Next week we'll get into Scott fish Bowl

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Speaker 1: because the drafts are starting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Are you doing a live draft this year? Are

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Speaker 3: you doing the online one live?

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Speaker 1: I'm doing live in Minneapolis and live in Boston as well.

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Speaker 3: You're doing both live drafts?

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Speaker 1: Yes?

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Speaker 3: How do you do that?

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Speaker 1: They're not the same day.

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Speaker 3: That's how kid take two teams though, I can what?

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I just I just said, Scott said,

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Speaker 1: can you do? Can you do Minneapolis?

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Speaker 3: Like? Sure? I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Maybe Scott Fishbowl is there is there there is a

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Speaker 1: one team cap. Oh, maybe I don't have two teams

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Speaker 1: I get maybe for one of them. I don't. I

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Speaker 1: don't get a team. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'll be at the Minneapolis draft. Okay, so I'll

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Speaker 3: see you there.

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Speaker 1: You want to pick me up on the way.

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Speaker 3: I could.

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Speaker 1: It's downtown Minneapolis this year. It's not in the middle,

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Speaker 1: it's not practically Wisconsin like it was before.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true.

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Speaker 1: That's exciting stuff. I can't I can't wait for that

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Speaker 1: uh plenty to get to in this show. Longtime listeners

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Speaker 1: know all about do the Opposite before it was called zero,

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Speaker 1: running back a decade before it was called do the Opposite?

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Speaker 3: When did you come up with the opposite as a

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Speaker 3: draft strategy?

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Speaker 1: I've kept that issue with the magazine, and I believe

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Speaker 1: it was two thousand and three. Okay, I think Mike

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Speaker 1: Vick is on the cover as a falcon.

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Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure I have that magazine still somewhere in

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Speaker 3: my basement. And and I remember, was it like the

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Speaker 3: inconceivable guy from the Princess Bride in that article or

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Speaker 3: was it something else? It was, Oh no, it was

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Speaker 3: a Seinfeld.

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Speaker 1: Because it was George Costanza Seinfeld reference. Longtime listeners, you

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Speaker 1: know what this is all about. It is, and especially

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Speaker 1: back then, it was all about everybody's taking running backs

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Speaker 1: at the top of the draft. You need to you

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Speaker 1: need to do the opposite, not just because that's what

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Speaker 1: everybody's doing, but there are a bunch of other great

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Speaker 1: reasons as well, Matt. You know many of those great

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Speaker 1: reasons to is shoe running backs at the top of

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Speaker 1: the draft.

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Speaker 3: Well, yeah, at that point, everybody was taking two running

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Speaker 3: backs with their first two picks, and maybe even three

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Speaker 3: running backs with their first three picks. And so you

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Speaker 3: came into the forefront and was like, hey, don't do that.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna take two wide receivers and a top quarterback

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Speaker 3: or a top tight end, and then I'll fill quantity

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Speaker 3: over quality on running backs because we know that it

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Speaker 3: flips so often in the running back position. And some

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Speaker 3: of the things that I found even just last year,

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Speaker 3: only eleven total running backs were able to manage ten

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Speaker 3: touchdowns last season.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that seems like.

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Speaker 3: A low barrier. That includes receiving touchdown, That includes receiving touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: By the way PPR leagues, I mean, they're the popular,

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Speaker 3: they're the preferred way to do it. Now, twenty two

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Speaker 3: wide receivers had more catches than the top running back

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Speaker 3: from last year.

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Speaker 1: That's amazing.

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Speaker 3: And then for context, in twenty twenty two, just a

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Speaker 3: year before, Austin Eckler had one hundred and seven catches.

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Speaker 1: Out, which is unusually high.

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Speaker 3: That was high, But Christian McCaffrey had eighty five, so

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Speaker 3: that was pretty high too. But only three wide receivers

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Speaker 3: had more catches than Austin Eckler. And as we're a

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Speaker 3: very reactionary society in fantasy football very much, we tried

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Speaker 3: to play back last year. So this year is going

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Speaker 3: to be the heaviest do the opposite draft year of

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Speaker 3: all time. I'm fairly sure.

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Speaker 1: I think you're exactly right about that. A couple more

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Speaker 1: things here. The core premise of do the opposite zero

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Speaker 1: running back is the failure rate of running backs is

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Speaker 1: by a margin way higher than all the other positions.

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Speaker 1: So why are you putting your most valuable draft capital

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Speaker 1: into the position that is the highest failure rate? And

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Speaker 1: then you really have to hit, just hit home runs

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Speaker 1: through the rest of your draft if those running backs

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Speaker 1: don't pan out. Running Backs have the shortest viable career span,

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Speaker 1: you know, as we all know, short of Hall of famers,

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Speaker 1: ye know, Adrian Peterson, who is viable for like eight years.

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Speaker 1: Most running most of the really good running backs from

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Speaker 1: from three years ago are not viable this year.

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Speaker 3: The cliff is so short.

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Speaker 1: It's so short, and it's so severe too, right there, Yes,

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Speaker 1: it's so severe. So and then if anything else goes

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Speaker 1: wrong with the team, it hurts the running back position.

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Speaker 1: Offensive line is bad or injured, hurts the running back.

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Speaker 1: Quarterback is bad or injured, hurts. The running back defense

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Speaker 1: is bad, hurts the running back because now your teams

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Speaker 1: that have deficit all the time and they're not running

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Speaker 1: the ball. Yeah, it's it is. There's so many reasons

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Speaker 1: to avoid running backs early. And here's a little more data.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I should mention the court. What

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about today is when would you

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Speaker 1: do the opposite? When would you undo the opposite? Undo

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Speaker 1: the opposite? When would you do the opposite? Of do

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Speaker 1: the opposite? Or do undo the opposite? That's a better phrase. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: let's do undo the opposite. I've got a couple more stats. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: last year, well we want to know them. The average

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Speaker 1: non running back drafted in the first two rounds, So

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Speaker 1: this would be quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers on average

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Speaker 1: lost eight positional spots from their draft position to their

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Speaker 1: actual position, meaning DeVante Adams was taking his wide receiver eight,

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Speaker 1: he finished his wide receiver sixteen. Okay, okay, So that's

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Speaker 1: our baseline for non runners. Yeah, how about runners? On average?

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Speaker 1: Runners dropped twenty two positional spots god from their draft

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Speaker 1: position to their actual position, meaning Tony Pollard was taken

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Speaker 1: a RB six, he finished his RB twa. So that's

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Speaker 1: a disaster, which is almost exactly where Tony Pollard was,

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Speaker 1: and that was almost exactly where Devontay Adam was. As

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Speaker 1: a couple of examples, that last year, after Christian McCaffrey,

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Speaker 1: who went first and he was a great pack, you

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Speaker 1: got exactly what you hope you get out of Christian McCaffrey.

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Speaker 1: The next eight runners after Christian McCaffrey that were drafted

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Speaker 1: by ADP that was Eckler, Bjon Chubb, Barkley, Pollard, King,

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Speaker 1: Henry Jacobs, and Najee finished as an with an average

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Speaker 1: of running back twenty eight. I mean, just apocalyptically bad

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Speaker 1: if you took any runner other than Christian McCaffrey at

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Speaker 1: the top of your draft life.

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Speaker 3: So it's not hard to convince people draft wide receivers. Now.

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Speaker 1: We've been talking about this for you know, the better

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Speaker 1: part of twenty years now, but now everybody is going

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Speaker 1: to draft those wide receivers in the first two rounds.

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Speaker 1: And what we kind of did today is I'm going

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Speaker 1: to kind of pick your brain on this, and we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go, at what point for these these running backs

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Speaker 1: that are going in the first three rounds. There's ten

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Speaker 1: of them exactly that are that are getting an ADP

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Speaker 1: of the first three rounds and it's only ten. Yeah, ten,

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Speaker 1: We're down to ten. It used to be the first

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Speaker 1: round was ten out of the first twelve. Yeah, we're

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Speaker 1: running backs exactly.

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Speaker 3: So we're gonna look at that, and we're gonna kind

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Speaker 3: of go, hey, where do I stop my do the

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Speaker 3: opposite plan? Because this running back is is either good

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Speaker 3: right right here at ADP and I do love him

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Speaker 3: that much, or he fell a few picks down the

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Speaker 3: slide and it's like, oh it's too good to pass up.

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Speaker 3: Or he fell a few rounds down the slide and

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Speaker 3: even though I don't like this running back, I see

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Speaker 3: the value here.

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Speaker 1: Yes, And that's you know, we're so we'll look at

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Speaker 1: these how many running backs do we look at the

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Speaker 1: ten ten running backs and you can play long at home.

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Speaker 1: At what point would you blink and go, okay, I'm

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Speaker 1: taking this guy?

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Speaker 3: All right, Well let's start with Christian McCaffrey.

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Speaker 1: How about that? In many ways the hardest decision you've got.

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Speaker 3: Really, he's going off the board to pick one to one.

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Speaker 3: He finished number one in PPR Fantasy points last year,

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Speaker 3: had just over two thousand total yards and twenty one touchdowns. Now,

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Speaker 3: the year before he had almost nineteen hundred total yards

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Speaker 3: and thirteen scores.

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Speaker 1: Yep.

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Speaker 3: In every year he's been healthy for a full season,

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Speaker 3: he's had a minimum of sixty seven receptions, which makes

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Speaker 3: him very safe in PPR. But he did miss twenty

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Speaker 3: two games in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one with injury.

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Speaker 3: That and that's not that was not trivial. Those teams

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Speaker 3: that that hurt that did hurt you quite a bit.

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Speaker 3: He just turned twenty eight years old. But charge is

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Speaker 3: this a player? If you're sitting at one to one

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Speaker 3: in a draft, are you still taking Christian McCaffrey or

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Speaker 3: are you're going a different direction.

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Speaker 1: I don't blame anybody who does take Christian McCaffrey at

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Speaker 1: the first overall pick. He was the most valuable player

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Speaker 1: last year. And we all, as you mentioned at the outset,

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Speaker 1: we all replayed last year. What could you know? Why

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Speaker 1: would it be any different next year? Every year it's different.

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Speaker 3: It's weird they don't replay the season exactly.

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Speaker 1: But for me, I'm there are just there are receivers

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Speaker 1: out there that I just know are gonna be great,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not passing those receivers. And for me, there's

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Speaker 1: six of them that I feel are just too good

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Speaker 1: for me, and five for sure maybe six so okay,

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Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, I'm on

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Speaker 1: ros Saint Brown. I just don't see scenarios where anything

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Speaker 1: goes wrong with those guys in a significant way, even

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Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson, although we might touch on him a little

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Speaker 1: bit later. I just feel like these I feel like

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Speaker 1: they're all safe. After that tier, there's a j Brown,

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Speaker 1: there's Pokinakua. They're really tempting to but I think at

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Speaker 1: that point I would blink. So for me, I'm at

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Speaker 1: I'm at pick six at there's no draft in America where.

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Speaker 3: He's not gonna be.

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Speaker 1: He's not gonna be there.

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Speaker 3: He's not gonna be He's not gonna be there.

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Speaker 1: But I just believe that strongly and just in do

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Speaker 1: the opposite and taking the sure things with this. And

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Speaker 1: I you know, I'm old enough to remember those two

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Speaker 1: lost seasons with Christian McCaffrey. Now that puts me in

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Speaker 1: the minority. Where would you take him?

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Speaker 3: I I think I'd still probably take him at one

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Speaker 3: just because of the other world oldly talent that he

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Speaker 3: possesses and the artic situation and the offense is just

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Speaker 3: absolutely just right for him. So I'm not as invested

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Speaker 3: in the DTO strategy as you are, but yeah, it's

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Speaker 3: definitely a question mark at some of these places. Let's

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Speaker 3: go on to the next running back drafted, and I

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Speaker 3: think you've already kind of answered this because Bryce Hall

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Speaker 3: has an ADP of five point seven, and you already

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Speaker 3: listed five wide receivers that you'd have definitely taking first,

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Speaker 3: you'd have over Okay, and then Christian McCaffrey. He finished

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Speaker 3: in number two in PPR points last season, which was

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Speaker 3: impressive as he was coming off an ACL surgery.

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Speaker 1: And his offense was completely broken around him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Zach Wilson was heading the offense for most of

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Speaker 3: the year. He finished with almost sixteen hundred total yards

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Speaker 3: and scored nine times last year.

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Speaker 1: Charge, why thank you for that opportunity to nine times?

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Speaker 3: There it is thank you. He led all running backs

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Speaker 3: in the league last year with seventy six receptions as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that way better receiver than I think people realize.

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Speaker 3: Brice Hall definitely his seven game rookie season in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty two, he showed flashes of brilliance before the knee injury.

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Speaker 3: He just turned twenty three years old, and he's got

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Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers back behind center. So Charge, it doesn't sound

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Speaker 3: like you're gonna undo the opposite and pick Breese Hall

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Speaker 3: pick six. But how far would Breese Hall have to

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Speaker 3: fall for you to take him?

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Speaker 1: Good player, really good player, But he's also relying on

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers bouncing back at age forty. He'll turn forty

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Speaker 1: one in season. I still think I want some of

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Speaker 1: the sure thing wide receivers that are out there more

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Speaker 1: than I want I want to roll the dice on

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Speaker 1: any runner, even when I really I like as much

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Speaker 1: as Breese Hall, who is really good, But even his

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Speaker 1: own teammate Garrett Wilson's really really good, really good. Remember

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Speaker 1: he is ADP was what five last year, Yeah, because

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Speaker 1: we loved him and he was great, and he was

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Speaker 1: gonna have Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 3: And that's the season it looked like, oh my god,

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Speaker 3: this would be amazing.

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Speaker 1: Yes, DeVante, Adam, Brandon, Ayuke, Nico Collins, Mike Evans. That's

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Speaker 1: the that's the tier. I've got to go drop down

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Speaker 1: before I'm considering Brice hall Is into that level, okay,

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Speaker 1: and that you know, really that's bringing us into the

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Speaker 1: end of the second round. So I'm I'm a full

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Speaker 1: round plus later on Breece hall because I you know,

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Speaker 1: I just I want I want those kinds of players.

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Speaker 1: And I still think there's enough question marks here that

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Speaker 1: I would go almost a full round later. You know,

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Speaker 1: give me, give me guys like Garrett Wilson ahead of

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Speaker 1: ahead of him for sure?

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Speaker 3: Is Brice Hallier number two running back right now?

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Speaker 1: Yes?

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Speaker 3: Yes, okay, you mccaffreams, right now, Okay.

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Speaker 1: I like I like him a lot.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think we know what you're gonna say about

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Speaker 3: Bjon Robinson, who's going off the board at pick six

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Speaker 3: point seven. Let's just call it seven.

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Speaker 1: Let's do the rounding. Let's do the rounding.

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Speaker 3: Phillis okay, picked seven. Bijon finished as the number seven

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Speaker 3: ranked PPR back last year fourteen hundred total yards eight scores,

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Speaker 3: not bad for a rookie year with Desmond Ritter under center.

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Speaker 3: There's a new coaching staff, a new quarterback in Kurt

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Speaker 3: Cousins or Michael Pennix. Just kidding, just kidding, it's gonna

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Speaker 3: be Kirk Cousins. But Bijon only had four games last

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Speaker 3: season with sixteen or more carries and only scored four

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Speaker 3: rushing touchdowns last year. And for context, ye Tyler Algier

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Speaker 3: had four rushing touchdowns last year and had sixteen or

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Speaker 3: more carries in three games. It was more of a

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Speaker 3: split than people think. Now. Everybody's picking Bijon at pick

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Speaker 3: seven right now, so they think that he's gonna just

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Speaker 3: cannibalize all of Algier's carries. But is the upside of

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Speaker 3: Bijon enough for you to undo the opposite at any

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Speaker 3: point or is he long gone by the.

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Speaker 1: Time he's gonna be long gone? But yes, new coaches

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Speaker 1: Rahie Morrison and Zach Robinson, the offensive coordinator saying all

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Speaker 1: the right things about Jon Robinson, how they want to

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Speaker 1: really build an offense around him and utilize his special talents.

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Speaker 1: We'd love to hear that talk is cheap in June, right,

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Speaker 1: so you know we know talk is cheap in August.

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Speaker 1: Well it is. Who's ever had a bad OTAs you know,

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Speaker 1: other than Zach Wilson who apparently has been dreadful. But

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Speaker 1: you know it's they always say, guys look great. Now,

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Speaker 1: we want to utilize this guy's, you know, best shape of.

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Speaker 3: His life, don't forget, best shape of his career.

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Speaker 1: The one I even love more is we're we're taking

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Speaker 1: this insert insert position here. Let's just say running back,

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Speaker 1: We're lining them up in the slot. Yeah, that stuff

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Speaker 1: never pans out, never pans out in a meaningful way.

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Speaker 1: It's all lies, you know. I I we think Bejon

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Speaker 1: could be a special talent based what we saw in college.

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Speaker 1: We saw a few flashes of it last year, but

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Speaker 1: not consistently. Andy that was a very, very run heavy

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Speaker 1: offense that he was still playing. Now, granted we hated

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Speaker 1: the usage and the the way that Arthur Smith ran

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Speaker 1: that offense, but I still feel like there's I still

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Speaker 1: feel like there's just too many good wide receivers. Am

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Speaker 1: I going to pass by A J. Brown in the

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Speaker 1: Eagles offense? No, No, I'm not going to. You're not

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Speaker 1: for sure I'm not going to.

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 1: In fact, there are the running backs I like more

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Speaker 1: than Bejon Robbinson. So there's you know, not only is

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Speaker 1: it to do the opposite thing, but also you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm I think Jonathan Taylor is sitting on a tremendous season.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about him in a minute. So for me,

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Speaker 1: I'm still a whole I'm still a whole round lower

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Speaker 1: on Bjeon Robinson. I'm middle of the second round because

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Speaker 1: I want more of the sure thing, sure thing receivers

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Speaker 1: on my team.

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Speaker 3: Middle of the second rounds where you're considering b Jeon Robinson.

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Speaker 3: All right, same rookie draft class. Jami Gibbs one of

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Speaker 3: two running backs going off the board right at the

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Speaker 3: first second round turn. He's going off right now at

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Speaker 3: about pick twelve. Gibbs finished as RB nine last year,

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Speaker 3: had twelve hundred total yards, scored eleven times. Dynamic and

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Speaker 3: impressive in just so many ways, but he scored fewer

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Speaker 3: touchdowns than his running mate David Montgomery and had about

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Speaker 3: forty fewer rushing attempts. He made up for it with

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Speaker 3: fifty two catches to Monty's sixteen. So his ADP seems

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Speaker 3: to dictate the fact that the fantasy community thinks he'll

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Speaker 3: take so much of the workload from Montgomery this year.

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Speaker 3: And I even hypot this, it's because Jamior Gibbs has

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Speaker 3: a cool name and David is a boring name to say.

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Speaker 3: So do you think do you think Gibbs gets more

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Speaker 3: of a workhorse role this year? No?

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Speaker 1: I don't.

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Speaker 3: Is he's not the one to turn for you? Then? No,

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Speaker 3: this is.

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Speaker 1: This is the easiest guy I'm gonna let slide. And

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Speaker 1: I think you'll be stunned at how far I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: let Jamiir give you go. Oh really, And it's not

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Speaker 1: that he's he's great. Yeah, he's a great talent, But

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Speaker 1: Montgomery steals all the easy touchdowns up close. Monty had

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Speaker 1: nineteen carries just from inside the five yard line, and

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Speaker 1: he converted half of those into touchdowns. This sounds like

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Football weeklies training inside. It's gonna it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: coming your way, by the way, announcement coming on that

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Speaker 1: in the next week. Okay, the way to a fantasy

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Speaker 1: football training camp. Gibbs got half of the carries inside

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Speaker 1: the five, half of the touchdowns. Guys who have to

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Speaker 1: score from distance are a dangerous gamble. Oh yeah, and.

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Speaker 3: That's what all this is.

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Speaker 1: I mean Jamior Gibbs with an ADP of third, he's

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Speaker 1: going at the first.

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Speaker 3: Pick of the second round. Yeah, and you're taking.

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Speaker 1: Somebody who has to score from distance. That's so dangerous.

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Speaker 1: No way am I.

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Speaker 3: Doing caught out, It's dumb.

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Speaker 1: I'm I would take Gibbs at double his ADP. I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at roughly pick thirty. In fact, I would rather

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Speaker 1: have his teammates Sam Laporta before Jamiir Gibbs.

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Speaker 3: You're taking two lions above Jamiir Gibbs. I'm saying the

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Speaker 3: third hour.

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Speaker 1: That's right.

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Speaker 3: The third lion Jonathan Taylor. You talked about him a

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Speaker 3: little bit before. He's going at right about the turn

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Speaker 3: as well, one two turn pick thirteen. Taylor missed a

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Speaker 3: bunch of times with injury, a bunch of time with

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Speaker 3: injuries in twenty twenty two and the first part of

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Speaker 3: twenty three, where he spent the first four weeks on

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Speaker 3: the pup list. He finished RB thirty three in total

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Speaker 3: PPR points, but RB eleven in points per game. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: he's two years removed from nearly twenty two hundred total

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Speaker 3: yards and twenty touchdowns. Wasn't that that was crazy? Through

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Speaker 3: his last six game of twenty twenty three, he did

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Speaker 3: score seven times. Yep, but that was two different runs

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Speaker 3: of three games as he missed weeks thirteen through fifteen

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Speaker 3: with injury. Anthony Richardson back from injury. That offense should improve,

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Speaker 3: but will it improve enough for you to undo the

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Speaker 3: opposite with Jonathan Taylor? And where?

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Speaker 1: Now? Now, this is a guy I'm interested in much

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Speaker 1: closer to his ADP because there's nobody else take the

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Speaker 1: ball from him at any time. There's no Zach Moss. There,

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Speaker 1: there's no Zach Moss. Your back of his even hole.

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Speaker 1: That's it. I mean this is they are gonna work tailor,

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Speaker 1: and so I get the goal line back, I get

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Speaker 1: the players gonna get the ball really all one hundred

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Speaker 1: yards of the field. Indy had the sixth best run

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Speaker 1: blocking offensive line last year by Pro Football Focus, the

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Speaker 1: eleventh best run block win rate by ESPN. I just

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Speaker 1: I love I worry a little bit about the hell

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Speaker 1: because he does have these nagging injuries which is, by

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Speaker 1: the way, welcome to running backs, right, But I would

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Speaker 1: take him much closer to ADP I've got him going

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Speaker 1: out for me. I would take him at position twenty,

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Speaker 1: so he's would you say, thirteen or fourteen. He's the

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Speaker 1: second round, mid second round. So that's the point at

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Speaker 1: which I'm really I'm interested in Taylor because I just

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Speaker 1: I like him. I like his opportunities so much.

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Speaker 3: And that'll probably vibe with some of how your do

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00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 3: the opposite builds would be if Taylor were to last

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Speaker 3: that long. Basically where you would pick in the fourth

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Speaker 3: or fifth position, take a wide receiver. There, Jonathan Taylor's

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Speaker 3: coming back to you in the second round.

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Speaker 1: Possibly, that's maybe right where I would blink on Taylor.

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Speaker 3: Okay, well that's half of them. Should we take a

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Speaker 3: quick break.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good call. Let's take a break and we come back.

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Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley just going two picks later than Jonathan Taylor. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this one's not close. We'll talk about him when we

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Speaker 1: come back. Fantasy Football Weekly Paul Jargy and Matt Harrison

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Speaker 1: Shock Fantasy. You've got a promo code for people who

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Speaker 1: want to subscribe. It's just twenty five dollars for the

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Speaker 1: whole year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, FFW twenty twenty twenty four. I think it's in

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Speaker 3: the show notes.

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Speaker 1: Tend the show notes in the show notes, go check

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Speaker 1: it out the show here in the show notes. Check

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00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 1: out our new discord a link to the discord channel.

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00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 1: Join our conversations there. We're just discording today about some

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Speaker 1: concerts that are starting to roll through town.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a there's a couple of fun concerts this summer.

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Speaker 3: I'm thinking about. Actually, one of my favorite bands is

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Speaker 3: like from you know, the nineties, a SKO punk outfit

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Speaker 3: called Less than Jake.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember you liked it Less than Jake. And

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Speaker 1: I think of one of the listeners, one of the

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Speaker 1: we have a listener from that band or something, right,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe maybe, But they're doing a concert

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Speaker 1: in Jamaica, Oh Boy, in January where they're playing at

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Speaker 1: a resort four nights in a row.

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Speaker 3: It's an all inclusive resort. They're playing with bowling for

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Speaker 3: soup as well. I don't you you'll you'd have heard

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Speaker 3: some of their songs. Okay, but but four nights in

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Speaker 3: a row, four concerts in a row.

436
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 1: For bands I love.

437
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,120
Speaker 3: I would do that it's it's kind of I would

438
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 3: do that. And my my oldest son who's in college,

439
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 3: he's like, he's into this kind of music too, so

440
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 3: he's like, Dad.

441
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 1: Let's go. The closest thing like that that's ever happened

442
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 1: to me is a band that I A couple of

443
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,399
Speaker 1: bands that I love. There was a I like a

444
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 1: genre called post rock, and there was a post rock

445
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 1: cruise and they had like three four bands that I

446
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 1: loved on the cruise and they're all performing constantly on

447
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 1: the cruise ship, and I'm like, this would be awesome,

448
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 1: but it was in football season. I couldn't go. That

449
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 1: was it? All right, Let's get back to get back

450
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 1: to our undoing. The opposite The next runner up is I.

451
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 3: Think we know where this is gonna go. Saquon Barkley,

452
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 3: now a Philadelphia Eagle, is going off with the third

453
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 3: pick in the second round, pick fifteen. Barkley finished at

454
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 3: RB thirteen in a pretty horrible Giants offense last year,

455
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 3: but he had over just over twelve hundred yards and

456
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 3: he did it get ten scores. But he joins a

457
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 3: Philly offense that has huge upside, but also the tush

458
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 3: push is there. Eagles running backs only combined for eight

459
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 3: total touchdowns last year, the fifth fewest in the league. Well,

460
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts had fifteen rushing scores.

461
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 1: Right, it's certainly gonna be one of my talking.

462
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 3: There's no doubt he has talent. But does the talent

463
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 3: meet enough opportunity for you to undo the opposite for

464
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 3: Saquon Barkley anywhere in the first three rounds, you are

465
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 3: wrong about the talent. You don't think he has talent.

466
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley is cooked. Oh, let's put some numbers against it.

467
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: He finished his Pro Football Focuses running back forty three. Overall,

468
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 1: he ranked fifty fourth in elusiveness. He ranked thirtieth in

469
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 1: rushing yards over expectation percentage according to Next Gen Stats.

470
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 1: His quarterback is going to eat all the short touchdowns,

471
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 1: and he doesn't catch like he used to, and Philadelphia

472
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 1: uses often a maddening time share. He had the advantage

473
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 1: of the Giants of being on the field constantly that

474
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: there's no such suggestion that's going to happen in Philadelphia.

475
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,439
Speaker 1: He could be sitting on a five touchdown season. I

476
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 1: would much rather have the recently re upped Ramandre Stevenson.

477
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 1: I would rather have Jonathan Brook. I'd rather have Zamir White.

478
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: You know where those guys are.

479
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 3: Going, like RB fifteen to twenty, pick ninety.

480
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am so far off Saquon Barkley. To me,

481
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 1: we have to get to round eight. He is an

482
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 1: adp of the middle of round two. I would take

483
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley in round eight.

484
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 3: So if we're in a we're in a draft and

485
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 3: there's a bunch of cloned charges in this draft that

486
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 3: I'll carry your same draft strategy, and Saquon's there in

487
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 3: the sixth round, you're still not taking him.

488
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 1: I would take the four running backs. They just meant

489
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 1: three running backs I just mentioned before. I would take him. So, no,

490
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: I'm so far off of Saquon.

491
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 3: I love it. I love Do you see it differently? No,

492
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 3: I absolutely love the strong take. I look forward to

493
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 3: all these preseason shows where you're trashing Saquon and.

494
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 1: We'll find out if I'm right or wrong about this.

495
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 1: But man, he to me, he looks he looks cooked.

496
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 3: He might be all right.

497
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:51,880
Speaker 1: Who's our next running Uh?

498
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 3: You know a guy we talked about a little bit

499
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 3: in the preseason less year Brian Johnson special that was

500
00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: Kyron Williams. He delivered in a major way. Right now,

501
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,679
Speaker 3: he's going late second pick twenty two. Williams finished as

502
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 3: RB seven, had exactly thirteen fifty total yards and fifteen

503
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 3: scores in only twelve games.

504
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: I was gonna say by Fantasy points per game, Kyroen might.

505
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 3: Have been RB two RB two in points per game.

506
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 3: Williams was absolutely money when he was on the field.

507
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 3: He only had two games all year where he finished

508
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 3: with fewer than fourteen PPR points. He missed five weeks

509
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 3: in the middle of your season, but if you survive that,

510
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,920
Speaker 3: he probably won you a title with big games in

511
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 3: all of the Fantasy playoff weeks, including three scorers in

512
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 3: Week seventeen. Now, Kyrien was a bellcal last year out

513
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,719
Speaker 3: of necessity. The Rams had no other halfway decent runners

514
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 3: on the roster, and he's not heavily involved in the

515
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 3: passing game. He had only thirty two receptions, which was

516
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 3: twenty eight The monkst running backs in the Rams. They

517
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 3: brought in Blake Korum in the drafts. His Korum and

518
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 3: the mid season injury enough to scare you off of

519
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 3: Kyron Williams in the first three rounds. Or was you

520
00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 3: undo the opposite.

521
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 1: This is the hardest one yet, this is brutal. So

522
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 1: it's the end of the second round. Here's Kyrien Williams.

523
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: I'm looking at a guy who was RB two in

524
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 1: point Fantasy points per game was last year just him

525
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 1: catching lightning in a bottle, aided by the fact they

526
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 1: had zero competition, nobody else with worth a damn in

527
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 1: that backfield. Then they go out and they put real

528
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 1: draft equity into Blake corm Since Todd Gurley, Sean McVay

529
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 1: has almost never used a workhorse back until last year

530
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 1: when he had to because there were no other good backs,

531
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 1: you know, between Gurley and Willian it did. It ended

532
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley's career early. I think McVeigh knows that it's

533
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:44,200
Speaker 1: always been a rotational backfield for Sean McVay between those,

534
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: you know, in the four seasons between those two events.

535
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 1: So I don't trust Kyrien Williams to get the big workhorse.

536
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 1: But the other part of it, that's that that that

537
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 1: makes this hard. William's pretty dark good. He finished sixth

538
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: in total rushing yards over expectation, seventh in rushing yards

539
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 1: over expectation per carry, tenth in rushing yards over expectation

540
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 1: percentage he finished. His pro football focuses AREB three ranked overall,

541
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 1: fifteenth and elusiveness. This is you know, this is where

542
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 1: this is about where Kyrien Williams belongs. I might go

543
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,360
Speaker 1: a half round later so I can get some tight ends.

544
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 1: I loved Laporta, Kelsey McBride and get an a lead

545
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 1: tight end. I still want Jalen Hurts. I want all

546
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: those rushing, those free rushing touchdowns. I think those are

547
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 1: the group that I would take sooner. They're half round later.

548
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 1: So Kyron Williams is very close to I think going

549
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: correctly even in a due the opposite mindset. But I'd

550
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: still wait half.

551
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 3: Around so because he's a late second round pick, and

552
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 3: at that turn there you'd be going, I have an

553
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 3: early third. Let's hope he gets back.

554
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:49,439
Speaker 1: Let's hope he gets back to me.

555
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 3: Okay, I want to see what you think about Devon

556
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 3: ah Chain here. He might be the most polarizing player

557
00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 3: in the first two rounds. Currently going off with the

558
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 3: last pick in the second round, pick twenty four. Last year,

559
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 3: a Chane only played eleven games, finished RB twenty five,

560
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 3: but more importantly finished RB four In PPR points per game?

561
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 3: Do you know who was RB three in PPR points

562
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 3: per game? Moster Raheem moster Ah Chain had just under

563
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 3: a thousand total yards and scored eleven times. But when

564
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 3: you factor in that his first real action in week three,

565
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 3: he scored four times and had two hundred and thirty

566
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 3: three of those.

567
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 1: Yards, by the way, which nobody started him for that gamer? Yeap,

568
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 1: so about a quarter of his production came in one

569
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: game when nobody had him and nobody.

570
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 3: Had him in the lineups. Moster, by the way, led

571
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 3: the league in rushing scores last year with eighteen added

572
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 3: three more through the air, and he's going off at

573
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 3: pick ninety two RB thirty.

574
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: Hell so he's my do the opposite target. Yeah, that's

575
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: the that's the show we should follow up with. Yeah,

576
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 1: or who are the running backs you're taking in rounds five, six, seven, eight?

577
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: We can do that in a couple of weeks.

578
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 3: Let's do that shit. The fantasy world seems to think

579
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: that a chan's taking most, if not all, of most production. Apparently, yes,

580
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: is the upside of a chane worthy of a late

581
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 3: second to early third or how late does he have

582
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 3: to fall for you to take him?

583
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 1: And most of it is older. I think he's thirty. Yeah,

584
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 1: and so maybe not a lot of mileage, very low

585
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 1: mileage because he's been dinged up. He was under used

586
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 1: for a long time. So a Chan's an electric runner

587
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 1: for sure. He averaged almost eight yards per carry, which

588
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,360
Speaker 1: is insane. He ranked number one in rushing yards over

589
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 1: expectation last year two point nine rushing yards per carry

590
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: over expectation. Wow, more than double the next closest player.

591
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 3: Crazy.

592
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 1: It is crazy. The next closest Christian McCaffrey, at one

593
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 1: point three yards over expectation. He posted two point nine.

594
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 1: He missed six games last year, after which, after he

595
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: missed that big block of games in the middle of

596
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: the season, Mike McDaniel seemed pretty gun shy about using

597
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: a Chan as much, giving him only ten carries per game. Okay,

598
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 1: and that's that where he me a little bit. Miami's

599
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: got the league's muddiest backfield. You mentioned moster, but let's

600
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 1: not forget thorn in your side. Guys like Jeff Wilson

601
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: and Salvon Ahmed and now fourth round rookie Jalen Wright

602
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: is in this mix too. I mean, that's real draft equity.

603
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 1: They have to get they need to get Jalen right

604
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: out of the field too, but that's the lead.

605
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 3: Well, not only that, but their wide receivers have such

606
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 3: a low a dot on so many of these things

607
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,719
Speaker 3: that they catch the ball a short distance from the line.

608
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 3: It's that PPR yardage for him.

609
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 1: In best ball, you know, in best ball specifically, I

610
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: think you can justify this end of the second round

611
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: ADP for those blow up games. Yeah, I think in

612
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: any other format, end of the second round for a

613
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:49,239
Speaker 1: chan is absurd. Isaiah Pacheco gets is exactly double eight

614
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: chans ADP at pick forty eight. I'd rather have Pacheco

615
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 1: for all the safety. I know he's going to get

616
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: the vast majority of the work on a very good offense.

617
00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: Similarly good offense. So you're looking he's picked for eight,

618
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: that's double eight chance.

619
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 3: So you're looking fifth round minimum.

620
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 1: This is the last pick of fourth round. So I'd

621
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 1: rather have Pachecko. He's the last pick of the fourth round.

622
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: So I guess I'm saying fifth round on David Devon

623
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: a hand.

624
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 3: All right, out of here, get out of here. Travis

625
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 3: Eten currently going off at pick twenty seven in the

626
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 3: third round in his rookie campaign, he averaged five point

627
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 3: one yards per carry. That number crash down to three

628
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 3: point eight last year, but he did have twelve total

629
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 3: scores in close to fifteen hundred total yards in just

630
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 3: a workhorse role. That was good enough to make him

631
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 3: RB three in total PPR points and was pretty consistent.

632
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 3: He has played all seventeen games in both seasons, after

633
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 3: missing the entirety of his twenty twenty one draft year

634
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 3: with an injury. Last year, he had double digit PPR

635
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 3: points in twelve games. He had three or more receptions

636
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 3: in all but three, and he scored in half the games.

637
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 3: You started him man with four multi score efforts. By

638
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 3: the way, Tank Bigsby, which was your guy last year. Yeah,

639
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 3: scored in the first two games. I know that never again.

640
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 3: I never saw the field again. Disappeared. Yeah, that was

641
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 3: that was bad think. I think he had like thirty

642
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 3: carries in the final fifteen games.

643
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 1: I don't have my tanks for nothing.

644
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: You have a sad trombone ski. I do sure.

645
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 1: I feel like I had half of this right, I

646
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 1: had half of that equation right. I didn't trust Travis

647
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: Etn to be a workhorse runner, and he wasn't I

648
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 1: thought it would go right to Bigsby as the backup. Now,

649
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 1: in fairness, Etn started the season really well, but then

650
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 1: he faded pretty badly because he's just not built to

651
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 1: be a work horse. He finished the season averaging three

652
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 1: point eight yards per carry. That is dreadful. He finished

653
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 1: thirty sixth in rushing Over expectation, he topped fifty seven

654
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 1: rushing yards. Fifty seven rushing yards is not a lot.

655
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 1: He topped fifty seven rushing yards in five of his

656
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 1: seventeen games. That's all. Doug Peterson says he wants to

657
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 1: rely less on Etn, and he's talking up Tank Bigsby.

658
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna time.

659
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: I mean, there's nothing I'm gonna say that's gonna make

660
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: anybody believe in Tank Bigsby. So not gonna try in

661
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: round three, which is where Travis Etn is going, I

662
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 1: can get a sure thing wide receiver, and get a

663
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: shirt thing quarterback, and get a sure thing tight end.

664
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 1: I would take Etn round five roughly double his ADP.

665
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: I'm not a I wasn't a believer last year. I

666
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: think he his productivity was just him being a functional

667
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 1: running back who got almost all the work in his offense.

668
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 3: That really was it. It was just opportunity, that's.

669
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 1: All it was. I don't think he's a special back.

670
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 3: All right. Uh you know one of the more special

671
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 3: backs in in maybe the last decade, Derrick Henry. He's

672
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 3: an old face in a new place. He joins the

673
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: Baltimore Ravens through free agency. In those all purple uniforms,

674
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 3: he might look a little bit like Grimace. Yeah, he's

675
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 3: currently going off the board in the middle of the

676
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 3: third round.

677
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 1: McDonald's phased Grimace out.

678
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 3: Oh have you heard about the Mets and Grimace? The

679
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 3: New York Mets. No, Like they had Grimace throughout the

680
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 3: first pitch at a game like like two weeks ago,

681
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 3: and the Mets have like lost one game since then.

682
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 3: He's in good luck so that like all the Mets

683
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 3: fans are converting to the Church of Grimace. That's awesome.

684
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 1: I love it. I love it.

685
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 3: So with Derek Henry, you pretty much know what this

686
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 3: state in his career that he offers nothing in the

687
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 3: passing game. So it's much more impressive that he finished

688
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: as RB twelve and PPR points. He posted just under

689
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 3: fourteen hundred total yards and twelve scores all of his

690
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 3: touchdowns were on the ground. Henry has posted double digit

691
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 3: rushing touchdowns in six straight seasons. What makes that more

692
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 3: impressive is he only played eight games in twenty twenty one. Wow,

693
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 3: he joins a Baltimore team and you know, might bring

694
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 3: just a completely different dimension to Lamar Jackson in that offense.

695
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 3: He's six y three, two hundred and forty seven pounds,

696
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 3: but he's thirty years old and he's average twenty carries

697
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 3: per game for the last six years Straight's.

698
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: A lot of mileage. And remember he didn't early in

699
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 1: his career. He was lightly used for those first couples. Yeah,

700
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 1: and been then since then, it's just pounding him in.

701
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: It was it DeMarco Murray.

702
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 1: This done.

703
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 3: He only had really one injury in all of those years.

704
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: All the eight are so amazing.

705
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, but Kenn's body hold up to the punishment after

706
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 3: age thirty touchdown upside absolutely tremendous. I think when we

707
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 3: talked about the AFC UH North in our in our

708
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 3: preview podcast, you were like, would it surprise you of

709
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 3: Derrick Henry was the highest rushing touchdown getter of this season.

710
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 1: No, not at all, not at all.

711
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 3: But in the third round middle third. Are you taking

712
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 3: Derrick Henry in a DTO draft strategy?

713
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 1: This one is also a little bit tricky unless Keaton

714
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: Mitchell recovers quickly and gets back to being as elusive

715
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: as he was, which is hard to do off the

716
00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 1: ACL That was what made Keaton Mitchell explosive SIV was

717
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 1: how hard it was to get a clean hit on him.

718
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 1: Probably isn't gonna have there and.

719
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 3: They're talking about him midseason. Yeah, like toplist almost for sure.

720
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: Right, So Keith Mitchell doesn't look like a factor, just

721
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 1: as Hill's just a guy.

722
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

723
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,720
Speaker 1: So the opportunity in Baltimore's high over the past three seasons,

724
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,839
Speaker 1: Baltimore's top top six and rushes from inside the five

725
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 1: and running play percentage from inside the five, there's gonna

726
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: be a lot of goal line opportunities. And of course,

727
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 1: over the past three years, as you would guess, Derrick

728
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 1: Henry leads all rushers in goal line touchdowns. You know

729
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 1: who leads all players in goal line touchdowns the last

730
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:36,760
Speaker 1: three years?

731
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 3: This is Lamar Jackson.

732
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:41,839
Speaker 1: He actually doesn't get many carries at all.

733
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:42,800
Speaker 3: I suppose he doesn't.

734
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, the right idea?

735
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 3: Is it hurts? Right?

736
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 1: It is? Yes, Jalen Hurts sixty one.

737
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, sixty one.

738
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 1: By the way, Jalen Hurts starts, we're talking ADP a

739
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 1: little bit. Jalen Hurts right now is going off the

740
00:35:53,800 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 1: board at pick du picked twenty six.

741
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 3: I think it's because I believe he only had fifteen

742
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 3: pass touchdowns last year.

743
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: I just I think the Eagles are gonna bounce back

744
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 1: in a big way.

745
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 3: Probably.

746
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 1: I think I think they're bad coaching, some bad injuries,

747
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 1: some bad luck, and I think they're a bounce back anyway.

748
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm intrigued by Henry, but he hurts you.

749
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: He hurts you obviously in a PPR league where he

750
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: doesn't give you any of that, He's gonna give you

751
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 1: some dud games when he doesn't score. Yeah, that's coming,

752
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: you know. So if he doesn't score, he's gonna get

753
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:31,280
Speaker 1: some games where he has sixteen carries for thirty eight yards,

754
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 1: chips in nothing through the air. He's gonna give you

755
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 1: some He's gonna give you some bummer games, unfortunately, but

756
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: the touchdown upside is very real. It wouldn't surprise me

757
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 1: if he scored in two thirds of his games this year, right,

758
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 1: and a couple of those will be multiple.

759
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 3: Touchdown you look, you're looking at a projected twelve to

760
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 3: fifteen touchdowns maybe yep, on the high end.

761
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 1: So currently going middle of round three, I think the

762
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: place where I would I would bend my do the

763
00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 1: opposite tendencies for Derrick Henry would be roughly after my

764
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 1: shirting quarterbacks. To me, that's Alan and Hurts are gone.

765
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 1: My top three tight ends who we love, right, you

766
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:12,359
Speaker 1: got Laporta, you got Kelsey and McBride. Okay, although it's

767
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 1: deeper in tight ends this year than it has been forever.

768
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 1: All Right, that's a stop topic for a future show.

769
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 1: By the way, it sure is. Oh, you don't have

770
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 1: to panic on tight ends for for a long time.

771
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 3: I actually think there's five tight ends, and I don't

772
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 3: want anything to do with anybody after that.

773
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so right, we'll talk about that. I

774
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 1: think there's gonna be guys like Jake Ferguson. They're gonna

775
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: work out. That's just me. The area where I'm interested

776
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 1: in taking Derrick Henry is in this part of my draft,

777
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 1: DK Metcalf, DeVante Smith, Ken Walker, Amari Cooper, Mark Andrews.

778
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 1: This is the area that feels about.

779
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 3: Right, that's about where Derrick Henry's going.

780
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 1: That's round four. So that's that's where I like him,

781
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 1: and that's about where I would take him, I think.

782
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 1: So just a couple picks, Ye, I'm about I'm about

783
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 1: a half round or around half lower than Henry. Now

784
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,839
Speaker 1: in a guillotine league, beware because he's gonna those dud

785
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 1: games from Henry. Those are gonna get you cut.

786
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and and you don't have the PPR

787
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 3: aspect to booye you there, so he's got to get

788
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 3: you the touchdowns, got to get you the touch So

789
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 3: do do you think Derek Henry in a guillotine league

790
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 3: drops to like fourth or fifth round or are people

791
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 3: nuts enough to go I'm gonna take him in the

792
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 3: second round.

793
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 1: I think there's still enough newbies out there that don't

794
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 1: understand the nuances of the format well enough that he's

795
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: gonna he's gonna go earlier than he should.

796
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 3: Especially with eighteen team leagues.

797
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 1: Eighteen team leagues, and that's when the running back panic

798
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: is so real in an eighteen team league, when people

799
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: are looking at if I don't take a running back

800
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 1: in the first two rounds and you know by the

801
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 1: time now it's back to me, right, it's you know,

802
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 1: now what am I gonna do? Meanwhile, I'll be like

803
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:53,359
Speaker 1: Zamir White, bring it on charge when to undo the Opposite?

804
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 1: Did you have any real problems with any of my

805
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 1: takes on this? No, this is pretty out of the

806
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 1: odd way, out of lockstep with the norm.

807
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 3: You know, I thought it would be good for the

808
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 3: listeners to hear you mister do the opposite himself, go hey,

809
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 3: where would I take these guys? So I think it's

810
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 3: an interesting exercise for us, and I do like the

811
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 3: idea of doing my do the Opposite running back targets

812
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 3: in a future show where we can go, you know

813
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 3: guys in rounds four through seven?

814
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, who hound on the table for That's the

815
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 1: whole premise of do the Opposite is go hit those

816
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 1: running backs in the middle rounds. That's that's where last

817
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 1: year's top ten came out of. Yeah, you know it's

818
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey and then most of the US are running

819
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 1: backs that ended up his top ten running backs for

820
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 1: round four, round six, round eight. So yeah, we'll go

821
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 1: mind those rounds? Is uh? I want to mention this.

822
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 1: We alluded to this just briefly, Ramondre Stevenson got a hefty,

823
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 1: pretty solid good new deal yeah Thursday with the Patriots.

824
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 1: I'm team Ramandre. I think he's a really good running

825
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 1: back who got used weirdly and poorly last year on

826
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 1: a totally dysfunctional offense. Yeah, I'm optimistic that Remandre is

827
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 1: going to come back. He's perfect do the opposite candidate.

828
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 1: Let me let me see if I can find where

829
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 1: he's going off the board right now, he is currently

830
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 1: going off the board Pick sixty three, running back twenty.

831
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 1: This is perfect for do the Opposite. I get a

832
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,280
Speaker 1: workhorse back on an offense that almost has to get better,

833
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: right it kick it worse? Not that it was last year.

834
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:20,399
Speaker 1: That was mac Jones.

835
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:24,320
Speaker 3: It can't get Bailey. No, no, it could be the same.

836
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 1: No, it can't be the same.

837
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,319
Speaker 3: It could be the same. It can't be.

838
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 1: Kobet and Drake May. If Drake May is good enough

839
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 1: to be better than Jacoby Brissett.

840
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, those guys they probably do it just enough.

841
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: They I think, you know, their abilities alone will raise

842
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,799
Speaker 1: the bar for Ramandri Stevenson. I think I love him

843
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 1: as a value pick at selection sixty three running back

844
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 1: twenty exactly.

845
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 3: All right, you're talking fish Bowl with mister Scott fish next.

846
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 1: Next week, Scott fish Ball. I want to talk about

847
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 1: the nuances of this year's scoring system. Every year I

848
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 1: saw it gets more complicated. I got to try to

849
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,800
Speaker 1: keep up with all the all the very and changes.

850
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 1: We got a bunch of first down scoring yep, built

851
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 1: in this year. And yeah, we'll talk through what to

852
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 1: do with your Scott fish Bowl team.

853
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:11,240
Speaker 3: I'd like to mention one thing too on that Scott

854
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 3: fish Bowl and Fantasy Cares aspect League Safe, something near

855
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 3: and dear to your heart.

856
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 1: I'm familiar.

857
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 3: You can now make donations straight from League Safe too,

858
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 3: Fantasy Cares. You can round up your bill to get in,

859
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 3: your leak fee to get in, or choose to do

860
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 3: a dollar or five dollars or ten dollars, the cool

861
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 3: one hundred dollars if you want. But all the donations

862
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 3: go straight to Fantasy Cares. And we at Leak Safe

863
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 3: we got a goal of ten thousand dollars and we're

864
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 3: already I mean we're in June right now, and I

865
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 3: think we're already we're already at like almost two thousand bucks.

866
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 3: So wow, we're feeling pretty good. We might have to

867
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Speaker 3: up our goal a little bit.

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Speaker 1: You might wind up your goal, yeah, but ten thousand's great.

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Speaker 1: I need you to stay under like seven two hundred

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00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 1: because that's what our super chop Scott fish bols super chop.

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00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 1: So I need you to stand her there.

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Speaker 3: For totally reason's right. We reject your donation.

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Speaker 1: All right, thanks for listening, everybody. We'll talk to you

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Speaker 1: next week. Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production

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00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 1: of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.