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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing him, Joe. I'm saying it to catch se most

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Speaker 1: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: My god, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like

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Speaker 1: to make money. All right, this is just the ultimate

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Speaker 1: kabata and we are come away. What is up everybody?

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Speaker 1: And welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your

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Speaker 1: NFL Week six betting preview where we'll talk about our

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Speaker 1: favorite totals, teasers, underdogs, and of course build our weekly

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Speaker 1: Sunday six pack of against the spread bets with the

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Speaker 1: help of my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 1: Stucky Stuck. What's going on?

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Speaker 2: What's a brother? I saw a tweet of yours that

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Speaker 2: you are forty one and seventeen on the air. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm thirty five and seventeen. I can't even thirty five

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Speaker 2: and seven is anything the best on this podcast. But

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Speaker 2: I got reverse swept on the six pack last week,

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Speaker 2: so I'm going to count it as a loss, especially

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Speaker 2: since I losing week. I think I ended up at

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Speaker 2: nine and four, but I'm gonna count it lose a

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Speaker 2: week because I want every single one of those to hit.

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Speaker 2: And I lost Survivor. Thank you jacks Jacksonville. Jack. If

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Speaker 2: you look at that, boss, wher How did Jacksville lose

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Speaker 2: that game? By the way, they turned it over three times?

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Speaker 2: They went over three and fourth down, so over three

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Speaker 2: in the red zone. I think they had like two

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Speaker 2: hundred more yards. But that's my second six pack loss

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Speaker 2: of all time on the Ravens. Both times I had

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Speaker 2: a favorite of three and the favorite one by two.

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Speaker 2: I don't know why Harball didn't try to go up ten.

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Speaker 2: He went up six since went did the Ravens do

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Speaker 2: that fourth and one? Inside the game?

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Speaker 1: He got shook from all the like what was it

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Speaker 1: five losses by a combined like nine points or something

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Speaker 1: like that at home? Yeah, I think he just I

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Speaker 1: think he just wanted to switch it up up.

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Speaker 2: Very frustrating. Cooper Rush cost me, but I'll take the

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Speaker 2: all on that one. It was either Rams were way

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Speaker 2: worse than I mean, their Cowboys defense not a gonna

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Speaker 2: get a defense touchdown right away. Cooper Rush didn't have

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Speaker 2: to work, So Survivors done. But what are you gonna do.

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Speaker 2: We're on to this week and hopefully we can keep it,

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Speaker 2: keep it moving.

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Speaker 3: Last week was last week, this week was this week.

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Speaker 3: Next week we'll be next week.

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Speaker 1: I mean we got to man, we went ohen six.

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Speaker 1: We're having like a good season. But of course we

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Speaker 1: picked just bet that don't hit on the on a

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Speaker 1: six pack. We'll get into Thursday night football in a second.

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Speaker 1: A quick heads up to all of our listeners out there.

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Speaker 1: The MLB Playoffs have arrived, which means new episodes of

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Speaker 1: Action Networks Baseball betting podcast Payoff Pitch every weekday starting

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Speaker 1: this week and all the way through the World Series.

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Speaker 1: If you want to bet some playoff baseball, check out

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Speaker 1: Payoff Pitch, hosted by Brendan Glaschen with Colin Wicharch, Sean

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Speaker 1: Zaillo and Anthony Dbundo. All right, time to talk some

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Speaker 1: Thursday night football, So let's get the show started with

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Speaker 1: Washington Chicago.

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Speaker 4: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: A typical Thursday night game. Chicago's favored by one at home.

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Speaker 1: The totals thirty seven and a half. So this is

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Speaker 1: like the Thursday Night best of the Thursday Nighties games.

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Speaker 1: Logan Thomas is out for Washington. Justin Field's coming off

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Speaker 1: his best game in a while, or at least this year.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen of twenty one, two hundred eight yards, a touchdown,

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Speaker 1: two sacks. So where'd you think of fields first of

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Speaker 1: all in his performance last week?

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I guess it's a step in the

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Speaker 2: right direction. I still need deceived way more from this

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Speaker 2: team that's still in a game that they averaged They

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Speaker 2: were down almost twenty one. That's how many times they

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Speaker 2: threw the ball. They are averaging seventeen pas types of game.

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Speaker 2: The second few list is twenty four, which it's just insane.

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Speaker 2: It's like we have like these in college. We have

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Speaker 2: like the service academies never throw like the Bears are

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Speaker 2: the closest thing we have to a service academy that

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Speaker 2: runs like the triple option. So I'll need to see

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Speaker 2: much much more fields and a Bears offense before I

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Speaker 2: make any sort of significant upgrade, because if you look

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Speaker 2: at the season long numbers, they're really bad.

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Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey caught more touchdowns in three hours than the

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Speaker 1: Bears have in five games.

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Speaker 2: That's amazing.

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Speaker 1: It's crazy. Yeah, you talked about Wentz. I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is what this dude does. You just you just can't

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Speaker 1: seem to deliver covers. You can't seem to get wins

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Speaker 1: for this Washington team. It's it is a toss up.

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Speaker 1: I would say, like if I were to bet Carson

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Speaker 1: Wentz and this Washington team, and I won't, But hypothetically

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't say, this is a terrible spot to do it.

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Speaker 1: But what do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I might be on the Commander's small here, nothing big,

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Speaker 2: and I doubt I'll watch this game. There's college football on,

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Speaker 2: there's BA called playoffs, what hockey, there's fast There's all

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Speaker 2: kinds of stuff, aren't I don't. I wouldn't waste my

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Speaker 2: time on the main screen at least watching this game.

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Speaker 2: It is going to be ugly, ugly ugly. These are

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Speaker 2: two teams that are dead thirty first and thirty second

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Speaker 2: success rate in non garbage time on offense. So this

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Speaker 2: is gonna be some ugly, ugly football. But you know,

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Speaker 2: like I mentioned, the Bears, they don't throw the ball.

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Speaker 2: They rely on their run. And one of the one

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Speaker 2: of the reasons why I like the Commanders last week

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Speaker 2: was that their run d has been trending up and

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Speaker 2: for the season their top five in EPA per run

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Speaker 2: and rush success rate. Here's the last three opponents have

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Speaker 2: done against them on the ground. Titans thirty two for

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Speaker 2: one oh five, Henry did nothing, Eagles thirty for seventy two,

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Speaker 2: Cowboys twenty nine for sixty two. But those are three

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Speaker 2: offenses that you say, Okay, I get pretty damn good

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Speaker 2: rushing rushing attacks past three games against those three opponents,

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Speaker 2: ninety one carries two hundred and thirty nine yards. It's

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Speaker 2: two point six yards per carry. So you know, I

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Speaker 2: think that what's gonna happen is that their run defense.

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Speaker 2: I know William Jackson isn't traveling. That doesn't mean anything

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Speaker 2: to me, But I think that the Bears are gonna

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Speaker 2: have trouble establishing the run against this Washington defense that's

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Speaker 2: been shutting it down over the past month, and that's

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Speaker 2: going to put the game in the hands of fields

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Speaker 2: and these receivers. I and you know, if it's like

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Speaker 2: if it's a matter of fields and the Bears receivers

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Speaker 2: against went and Washington and their receivers outside with Washington small,

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Speaker 2: but man, this one's ugly.

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Speaker 1: Do any love for the under. I know, you know

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night totals tend to go under more often than not.

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Speaker 1: But I mean there's really no margin. Ferrero almost down

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Speaker 1: there at like thirty eight, thirty seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would lean under, but yeah, there's and for

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Speaker 2: what it's worth, unders between thirty seven and forty on

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Speaker 2: Thursday Night football have just free money in the past.

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Speaker 2: That doesn't mean that it's gonna be the case in

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Speaker 2: the future. I would lean under, but yeah, it's right,

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Speaker 2: It's right where it should be. If it's if you

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Speaker 2: got this at like forty, I think it opened maybe

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Speaker 2: at forty one forty I think under was the play,

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Speaker 2: but I think it's come down to where it should be.

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Speaker 1: Given how good Washington's run defense has been, I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be surprised if Chicago at least schemes up some type

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Speaker 1: of throwing maybe to catch them off guard, you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe be a deep statitye to Mooney or something. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: it can get dicey with the under. All right, let

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Speaker 1: us jump into the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: Thursdayper Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: All right, you're up first, You're up by one on

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Speaker 1: a season.

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Speaker 2: Where are you going for my first pick of the

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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack presented by Fandel I'm going with the

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Steelers plus eight and a half. Uh, you didn't

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Speaker 2: take them, and you've they've burned you the past couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks. This is I haven't been on them since

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Speaker 2: they're opening game against the Bengals. I think that this

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Speaker 2: is finally the ra ra spot.

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Speaker 1: What a ra rah Mike Tomlin spot.

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Speaker 3: We win the game with this crool bodies right here today.

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Speaker 1: You only game to day.

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Speaker 2: Like this is the spot off of one of the

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Speaker 2: most embarrassing losses in franchise history, coming home against the

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Speaker 2: Bucks with you know, yeah crowd that's probably gonna be

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Speaker 2: excited about the rookie quarterback.

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Speaker 3: You know he didn't urinate down his leg. Man, It's

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Speaker 3: a great place to begin.

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Speaker 2: And this is your season. You lose this game, it's done.

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Speaker 2: Good night, like literally in the AFC, so I expect

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Speaker 2: this is the classic raw ra It's gonna come out

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Speaker 2: with their hair on. Now. There's injuries in their defensive backfield.

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Speaker 2: We'll see who ends up playing. There's also injuries in

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Speaker 2: the Bucks defensive backfield. Regardless, I could sit here and

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Speaker 2: give you all kinds of toimelin home dog stats. I

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Speaker 2: could give you Brady stats that will look good after

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Speaker 2: a loss, but.

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Speaker 1: The greatest of all time. Look at your work.

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Speaker 2: None of them have been covering over the past two weeks.

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Speaker 2: There's just a gut deal thing will be the Tomins spots.

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Speaker 2: But also this is an auto almost an auto play

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Speaker 2: for me. In the NFL. After a team loses by

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Speaker 2: thirty five plus and I think that this line should

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Speaker 2: be seven and we're getting eight and a half here,

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Speaker 2: every team is pretty much going to be in a

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Speaker 2: row spot. I have to lose by thirty five plus

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Speaker 2: and then you tend to get a little bit of

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Speaker 2: value as a result the next week. I mean, by

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Speaker 2: the way, this will be the biggest potentially the biggest

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Speaker 2: dog the stewers have been in forty years.

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Speaker 3: When you're out of time, we all know it. You

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Speaker 3: know what I mean, and so I just go hard

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Speaker 3: all day until we at that point where we know it.

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Speaker 2: And over the past twenty years or seventeen four and

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Speaker 2: three against the spread as a home dog, but listen

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Speaker 2: to this, teams that lost by thirty five plus the

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Speaker 2: week before are seventy one forty one and five sixty

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Speaker 2: three and a half percent over the past twenty years,

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Speaker 2: covering by about a field goal per game when they're

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Speaker 2: catching more than a field goal. So if they're an

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Speaker 2: underdog by three or more points, they are forty seven,

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Speaker 2: seventeen and two just just seventy three percent. It's decent

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Speaker 2: over the past twenty years. And just home dogs in

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Speaker 2: general off twenty four point plus twenty four or more

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Speaker 2: point loss. So if any team that's lost by twenty

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Speaker 2: four more the week before the following we get there

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Speaker 2: a home dog fifty seven and a half percent since

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Speaker 2: nineteen eighty sample size of three hundred and ninety games.

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Speaker 2: Like that's in the NFL, one of the hardest markets

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Speaker 2: to beat. That's pretty solid if you're gonna and if

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Speaker 2: you're going to fade the Bucks and Tom Brady specifically

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Speaker 2: road favored over a touchdown and he's five hundred in

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Speaker 2: his career everywhere else, he's elite against the spread. And

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Speaker 2: this Bucks team is just not the same team that

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Speaker 2: there's a reason why they have not been covering this year.

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Speaker 2: Their offensive line is a mess, they cannot run the

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Speaker 2: ball because they can't block, and their defense has injuries

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Speaker 2: in the secondary. It's why they let Mariota come back.

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Speaker 2: And I mean it was unlucky, but Variodain Company came

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Speaker 2: back in the second half from twenty one to nothing

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Speaker 2: down they lost both of their corners, they lost the safety,

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Speaker 2: so they're beat up there. I actually like some of

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Speaker 2: the things I saw from Picket. It's a huge upgrade,

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Speaker 2: I think for Mitch Mortle, So I am happy to

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Speaker 2: go to war with Pickett and that Pickett to Pickings connection.

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Speaker 2: So I think that there's a little bit of iden

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Speaker 2: Steels desperation effort here for their season. And I'll take

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Speaker 2: over a touchdown with a team that lost by thirty

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Speaker 2: five to the best team in the NFL on the

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Speaker 2: road last week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, probably should have talked about it

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Speaker 1: at the top, But you know, we week six is

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Speaker 1: kind of like that last week early in the year.

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Speaker 1: It's a big underdog week, or at least it has

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Speaker 1: been historically, you know, like the market, you know, weeks

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Speaker 1: one to three, it's kind of big underdog weeks. Everyone's overreacting,

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Speaker 1: but then it kind of calms down in weeks four

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Speaker 1: and five. But week six, since two thousand and five,

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Speaker 1: underdogs are one thirty one oh two and seven. That's

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Speaker 1: fifty six percent. But I found about seven or eight

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Speaker 1: underdog trends for Week six that are all a graded

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Speaker 1: in the in bet Labs that hit over sixty percent.

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Speaker 1: So like I have twelve bet Labs trends popping up

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Speaker 1: for the Steelers in this game and none for the Bucks.

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Speaker 1: Of course, so.

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Speaker 2: Are you gonna be gun shy or are you gonna join?

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Speaker 3: Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be all.

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Speaker 1: In, I mean exactly. It's like I'm forty one and

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Speaker 1: seventeen and it's pretty sure I have like six of

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Speaker 1: those loss Like a third of those losses are just

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Speaker 1: Steelers and Bucks betting on Tom Win and Brady to

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Speaker 1: I get right the shift and it just has a.

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Speaker 2: Game.

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Speaker 1: But it's like I can't bet on both of those.

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Speaker 1: That's the problem. Like usually you could just like bet,

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Speaker 1: you know, try to get your money back, just keep

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Speaker 1: keep doubling up your units until you win. But like

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Speaker 1: I can't bet on.

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Speaker 2: Both of them.

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Speaker 1: One of them is gonna lose. So it's like it's

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Speaker 1: not as intriguing. But I know the stairs are the

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Speaker 1: right play. The stairs are definitely the right play. It's

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Speaker 1: probably sick as our listeners are of hearing that the

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Speaker 1: Steelers are indeed the right play, all right for my

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Speaker 1: first pick and the second overall pick of the week,

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Speaker 1: number six Sunday six Pack presented by FanDuel going with

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Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars plus one and a half at Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: And this isn't the usual Jaguar spot where we go

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Speaker 1: in Jacksonville, but this Indianapolis team. I want to fade

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Speaker 1: this Indianapolis team, and I want to do it. I

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Speaker 1: want to buy low on this Jaguars team because this

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis team is terrible, Like it's really just a terrible

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Speaker 1: football team. And now they stay like they're coming off

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Speaker 1: a ten day break, it still looks like they're missing guys.

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Speaker 1: They have, you know, Shaq leonardst doesn't return to practice.

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Speaker 3: You have.

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Speaker 1: Quitty Pey got hurt so right. You know Taylor, Jonathan

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Speaker 1: Taylor still hasn't returned to practice after that long way off,

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Speaker 1: which is probably the most concerning. So you know, this

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Speaker 1: team got out gained by Jacksonville, you know, by like

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Speaker 1: one hundred yards in that first in that first matchup.

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Speaker 1: Granted they didn't have Michael Pittman. But they did have

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor. You know, it's not like they had nobody,

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Speaker 1: and they got out gained three point thirty one to

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Speaker 1: two eighteen by Jacksonville. Even more concerning, they had nine

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Speaker 1: first downs in that game. Nine first downs. Now, okay,

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Speaker 1: you look at this coach team and you know what's

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Speaker 1: happened since then. You know, they've got a couple of wins.

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Speaker 1: We were on them against Kansas City. They get lucky

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Speaker 1: against Denver. But Jacksonville, on the other hand, you know,

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Speaker 1: they lose ugly to the Texans last week. Well Jacksonville,

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Speaker 1: as you pointed out earlier, they outgained the Texans four

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Speaker 1: twenty two to two forty eight in that game. They

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Speaker 1: had issues in the red zones. Things that will kind

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Speaker 1: of revert back to the normal over time.

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Speaker 2: But forget down, yeah, yeah, they went, they turned it over,

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Speaker 2: the lost a turnover battle. They they went zero for

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Speaker 2: three in the red zone and the Texans went one

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Speaker 2: for one scoring touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. But even with that, like I saw a lot

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Speaker 1: of things that I think are encouraging. Well Trel Lawrence,

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Speaker 1: he's missing some throws high, like he just has to

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Speaker 1: settle down a little bit but Travis etn Uh, they're

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Speaker 1: starting to unleash him and he's looking really good. I

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Speaker 1: think he adds an element to that offense that they need,

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Speaker 1: you know, a little explosiveness, a little juice, and Evan Ingram.

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Speaker 1: We got Evan Ingram siding and I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: long term, that's also going to help Lawrence because the

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Speaker 1: receiving core is actually pretty good. You know, it's been

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Speaker 1: somewhat inconsistent, but I think it's pretty good. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: like the offense. But let's just look at the metrics.

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Speaker 1: You know, this season, you know, Jacksonville kind of had

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Speaker 1: it was like the Darling early on, been up and down.

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville's number seven in the overall DVOA on the year,

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Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts thirty two, dead last. The Indianapolis Coats

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Speaker 1: are not only by the eye test, but by the

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Speaker 1: advanced metrics, the worst team in football, you know, and

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville's top ten and pressure eight. Matt Ryan cannot he

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Speaker 1: just can't survive under pressure. He's fumbling the ball. He's

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Speaker 1: already got double digit fumbles, he's throwing bad interceptions. He's

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Speaker 1: one of the worst rated quarterbacks under pressure, and now

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Speaker 1: he doesn't have an offensive line. Kelly their center. He

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Speaker 1: also mispractice, so you know, this offensive line has been

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Speaker 1: bad even even the players that are supposed to be good.

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Speaker 1: The Colts are thirty second, dead last and offensive DVOA

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Speaker 1: dead last and total DVOA. I just don't think this

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Speaker 1: is a good football team. And like we might be

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Speaker 1: looking back to this Coats team. I mean, Atlanta's fist,

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Speaker 1: Seattle and Detroit can score, Houston has a pulse. Might

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Speaker 1: this really might be the worst team in the National

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Speaker 1: Football League. So you know, I don't think just because

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Speaker 1: you're in Jacksonville and you switch to Indianapolis, like you know,

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Speaker 1: you get nine first downs and you just can't You

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Speaker 1: just don't matter. And by the way, it's not just

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Speaker 1: at home Indianapolis under Frank Reich one in seven with

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Speaker 1: one push against the spread versus the Jaguars, So it's

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Speaker 1: not just in Jacksonville, like they just haven't figured out

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Speaker 1: this team since Reich took over. I'm just fading everything

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Speaker 1: to do with this Colt team. Give it to Jags.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind taking the Jags here, but I'd

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Speaker 2: rather tease them. And we'll talk about that. Our teaser

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Speaker 2: second later, I am just a bit concerned, Like I'm

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Speaker 2: pretty sure that Indianapolis is not good. I think the

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Speaker 2: Jackson's gonna win the division as the best team the division.

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Speaker 2: They just have some puzzling, head scratching losses. I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: they lost to Washington. We talked about it. Washington is

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Speaker 2: terrible and can't eat anybody. Then you know you still

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Speaker 2: lose the Texans. Trevor Lawrence's numbers against or two are

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Speaker 2: a bit worrisome, and that was that was one of

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Speaker 2: the takeaways from last week if you look lack. The

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Speaker 2: only two games that he faced covered two majority of

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Speaker 2: the game were last week's opener and open his debut

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Speaker 2: against Texans, and then last week against the Texans, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: he didn't he didn't look great. So I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I'm still trying to get a feel for the Jags.

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Speaker 2: I think that they have more upside than the Colts.

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Speaker 2: And maybe I'm just sour grapes because they ruined Survivor

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Speaker 2: for me. But yeah, there's yeah. You look at the

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Speaker 2: Philly game. Two is in like weather. They played the Chargers,

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Speaker 2: who had a bunch of guys hurt. So it's I'm

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Speaker 2: having trouble just grasping where they stand. So I don't

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Speaker 2: mind your play, but I'd rather tease them in the

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Speaker 2: range that they're at, you know. Two. We'll talk about

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Speaker 2: that later. So uh yeah, I'll save I'll save them

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Speaker 2: for that segment.

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Speaker 1: Let me give a Let me give a couple I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: you know, big underdog week. I'll give a couple of

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Speaker 1: trends for Jacksonville week six dogs off a loss of

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Speaker 1: seven or more so loss of a touchdown or more

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Speaker 1: fifty one sixty Since two thousand and five, a week

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Speaker 1: week six dogs below fifty percent against the spread coming

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Speaker 1: in sixty seven, forty three and one sixty one percent.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's really uncanny, like to the point where

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Speaker 1: I like, I'm almost at the point where I could

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Speaker 1: I could give you a reason to bet every single

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Speaker 1: dog on this on this slate, Like it's just it's

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Speaker 1: just one of those week. It's cause it's kind of

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Speaker 1: like you know, when you're modeling and like the first

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Speaker 1: three weeks, everything's it's over reactions, but like now it's

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Speaker 1: like you have pretty much only the new season data,

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Speaker 1: but teams are also changed. Like team teams that like

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Speaker 1: struggled early on are like switching things up, so it

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Speaker 1: just creates an interesting situation. I think this week with underdogs,

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Speaker 1: you know, not necessarily for the same reasons that they're

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Speaker 1: profitable in weeks one to three, but still, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: one of those kind of weeks where I think people,

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Speaker 1: you know, the favorites are a little overvalue. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: where you're going with your second.

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Speaker 2: Okay for my second pick of the third overall of

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Speaker 2: the week six Sunday six pack percented by Fan Duel,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Miami Dolphins plus three and a

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Speaker 2: half at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Yes, we're rolling

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Speaker 2: with Skyler Thompson, the seventh round draft pick rookie. We've

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Speaker 2: seen backups that have success in their first starts in

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Speaker 2: the past, and I think that Thompson could have success here. Look,

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Speaker 2: there's not gonna be a lot of tape on him,

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Speaker 2: but more importantly, he didn't look great last week, but

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Speaker 2: he'll get the run with the ones all week here

395
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Speaker 2: and Bridgewater. It looks like tow it was ruled out Bridgewater.

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Speaker 2: I think will clear concussion protocol be the backup for

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Speaker 2: Mike McDaniel. I maybe if Thompson really struggles, will come

398
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Speaker 2: in but I think Thompson will be okay here in

399
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Speaker 2: his first start. We've seen backups have success in this role.

400
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Speaker 2: Looks like Tyreek Hill is okay. I think the speed

401
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Speaker 2: at receiver for Miami can cause a lot of issues

402
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Speaker 2: for this Minnesota defense. And this Minnesota defense, by the way,

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Speaker 2: has been bad. I mean, we saw Justin Fields last

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Speaker 2: week finally have his best game against this defense. The

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Speaker 2: only time we've seen the Vikings on the road, they

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Speaker 2: got crushed in Philadelphia, And if you look, I think

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Speaker 2: the Vikings are a bit of a paper tiger. Their

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Speaker 2: wins are over at Green Bay to start the year

409
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Speaker 2: at home doesn't look as great now. They beat Detroit

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Speaker 2: in the game they should have lost at home. They

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Speaker 2: beat the Saints backup team by three in London, and

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Speaker 2: then they beat the Bears by seven at home, so

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Speaker 2: like most of their damages coming at home, they're one

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Speaker 2: game on the road they were blown out. I don't

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Speaker 2: like anything about this what I'm seeing from this defense

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Speaker 2: right now. So I think with a week to prepare,

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Speaker 2: with Thompson running with the ones, the Miami offense will

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Speaker 2: be okay. It also looks like Xavi and Howard will

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Speaker 2: go I hope Armstead could go with his toe, which

420
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Speaker 2: is big, and maybe you get Austin Jackson who came

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Speaker 2: off I are back on the offensive line. Those are

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Speaker 2: things to watch, but you know, I think that the

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Speaker 2: uncertainty factor Thompson working with the ones and then this

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Speaker 2: line has just gone too far. I'll happily take. If

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Speaker 2: both of these teams were at full strength, you know,

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Speaker 2: I would think that Miami would be about a four

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Speaker 2: to four and a half point favorite at home. Then

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Speaker 2: I drop. I would drop from two to to Teddy

429
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Speaker 2: point and a half ish, so you know, then your

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Speaker 2: second backup, it's going to be about a three point

431
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 2: I would make the dolphinse about a three point favorite

432
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 2: with Teddy and then with Top. From Teddy to Thompson,

433
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 2: it's like four and a half to five points is

434
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 2: what I'm assuming. So you know, you're in the dead

435
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 2: range of a pick if I'm getting over a field

436
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 2: goal here happily taken. I know he didn't looked great

437
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:26,479
Speaker 2: last week. He kind of thrown into the fire. There

438
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 2: was offensive line injuries, game kind of snowballed. But he

439
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,439
Speaker 2: did look really good in the preseason. Yeah he did,

440
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 2: And like that was all the example size. That gives

441
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:39,200
Speaker 2: me a little bit of confidence that he's not just like, Okay,

442
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 2: he saw like two drives in the preseason. We don't.

443
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,919
Speaker 2: We haven't really seen anything. So I think working with

444
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 2: the offense for a week with the ones at home

445
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 2: here and now that you're getting over a field goal,

446
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 2: I think this line has gone too far. So I'll

447
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 2: take Miami here off back to back losses.

448
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 1: You know what I think is a secret weapon my

449
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 1: man raheem Most like he's balling like Mike McDaniel just

450
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 1: somehow resurrected him because like I thought his career was

451
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: over after he you know, got hurt for the eighteenth time,

452
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 1: but he chase Edmonds is essentially benched. Raie Most is

453
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 1: getting like twenty touches.

454
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 2: Now.

455
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 1: I think that's how they're gonna like. They're not gonna

456
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 1: put it on skyra Thompson. Obviously they're gonna you know,

457
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 1: they're gonna scheme up some plays for Hill and Waddle,

458
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: probably things up close to the line of scrimmage, misdirections.

459
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: But uh, I think you're gonna see a healthy dose

460
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 1: of Moster. He was out of practice today with an injury.

461
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that's a maintenance day, so I didn't

462
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:30,199
Speaker 1: game here.

463
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: You can do that, I guess Minnesota for sure.

464
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, absolutely, that's that's kind of what I'm

465
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 1: getting that. And I think that I think they'll probably

466
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 1: slow it down, run the ball. So yeah, I mean

467
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 1: foreshadowing for a pick. I'm ana mack later, but uh yeah,

468
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 1: I have it. I would have this at three, So yeah,

469
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: I don't mind taking the hook there, but I did.

470
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: That's why Skyler Thompson is on a roster is because

471
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 1: he had a really good preseason. Obviously, you know it's

472
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 1: gonna be a low a dot, you know, kind of

473
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 1: kind of guy. He was never super efficient in college,

474
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 1: but I think he can. I think he can do

475
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: enough here. I don't mind it, but yes, lean on

476
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 1: the run game.

477
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 2: Get him some easy passes over the middle of the

478
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 2: field in your play action, get hill and waddle in

479
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 2: space and go from there. And you're getting the desperate

480
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 2: home dog here catching over a field goal against a

481
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 2: little bit of a paper tiger in the Vikings who

482
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 2: if you look at their resume, it's like you're really

483
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: rest of your laws on that for opening win against

484
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: Green Bay, And now we look back at that game,

485
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 2: and we say, because it was really that impressive to

486
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 2: beat this Green Bay team at home, so other than that,

487
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 2: their resume is pretty shoddy.

488
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. Man, our listeners like it's funny because I feel

489
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 1: like we must offend a different fan base every every segment.

490
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:48,719
Speaker 2: So so far, we are getting back to our roots

491
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 2: because my first two picks were the Steelers with Kenny

492
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 2: Pickett and the Dolphins with Skylar Thompson. So we're going

493
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 2: with two home dogs that are starting rookie quarterbacks. So

494
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 2: we're getting back, getting back to the roots of the show. Here.

495
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 2: Where are you going next?

496
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 1: Let's I mean, hey, let's keep it going. I don't

497
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,199
Speaker 1: even know who my quarterback is going to be for

498
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 1: this pick. But for my second pick and the fourth

499
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: overall of the week six Sunday six back, I'm going

500
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 1: with the New Orleans Saints home dogs plus one and

501
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 1: a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. Gimme Dalton, gimme Winston,

502
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 1: give me taste them. I don't care. I think this

503
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: Saints team Anyboddy Buddy in book, but uh, it's a

504
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 1: bye on the Saints. But they won, so it's not

505
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 1: like a super by low or anything. But continuing to

506
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 1: sell this Bengals squad who they went to the Super

507
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 1: Bowl last year, and they have regressed in a in

508
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 1: a bad way. You look at this matchup for them

509
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: versus Saints, and first of all, the spot is bad

510
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: for the Bengals. You got short rest after you know,

511
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 1: a tough, hard fought divisional game on Sunday night. You

512
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 1: got short rest going on a road against the New

513
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: Orleans team who's now in at second straight home game

514
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 1: after coming back from London. So you know they haven't

515
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 1: I mean they've they've They've been chilling now and on

516
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 1: the offensive line for the Bengals, which has obviously been

517
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: a problem. And Joe Burr's taking a lot of sacks.

518
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 1: So let's okay. Left tackle, you have Jonah Williams's giving

519
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: up the fifth most sacks among tackles at four, the

520
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 1: eighth most, tied for the eighth most pressures among tackles

521
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 1: with eight. He's got to go up against Marcus Davinam

522
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 1: you flip over to the right side? A right tackle?

523
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 1: You got Lyle Collins, who I know you've pointed out

524
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 1: on many occasions, has been just a complete liability this year.

525
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 1: He's grading out fourth worst of seventy two qualified tackles

526
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 1: in PFF grades. He's gonna have to go up against Cam.

527
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 2: Jordan or vice versa.

528
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: So I think the Saints, you know, they haven't quite

529
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: had a monster you know, monster numbers in terms of

530
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 1: their pressures with on the defensive line, but a very

531
00:26:56,119 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: good defensive line and just just a brutal nightmare kind

532
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 1: of matchup for these tackles in this line. And Burrow's

533
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: not helping matters obviously, But here's why I like New

534
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 1: Orleans just schmatically in this spot. They blitz at the

535
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: third lowest rate, and we know Burrow can eat up

536
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 1: the blitz. He has a one nineteen passer rating when

537
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: blitz this year, four touchdowns, no interceptions when he's not blitzed,

538
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 1: a three passer rating, which is well below league average.

539
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: If you have an a three passer rating like you're now,

540
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: you're talking about like backup territory. Almost five touchdowns and

541
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 1: five picks. So the Saints defense matches up well, they're

542
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 1: at home. You know, they can stop the run. So

543
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 1: mixing kind of got going last week. But they can

544
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 1: stop the run, and you know, regardless of who the

545
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 1: quarterback is, which you can't really say this about many teams,

546
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: but the Saints offense is gonna get theirs. Like you

547
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 1: got Taysom Hill doing whatever he does. Camara's back and

548
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: he's catching passes again, which is which is a good

549
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 1: sight to see. Finally looks healthy. Still got a good

550
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 1: back up at Ingram. You should get Thomas back this week.

551
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 1: I don't know about Owabbi, but you should get Thomas

552
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 1: and you probably should get Landry as well. But they're

553
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 1: pretty deep at receiver, uh you know, which is another

554
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 1: good thing. So uh yeah, just like the Saints team,

555
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 1: think they match up well. I mean I think these teams.

556
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: You know, it sounds crazy because the Saints team lost

557
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 1: Sean Payton. Uh, they're on their backup quarterback. But you

558
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: look at these two teams and I have this about

559
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: to pick them and that that might even be generous.

560
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 1: Like if this game plays out the way I think

561
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: it will and the Saints win, I'm gonna have these

562
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:36,199
Speaker 1: teams rated almost evenly after that after this week, So like,

563
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: don't let the super Bowl kind of cloud your judgment. Uh,

564
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: this Bengals team is not what it was before, and

565
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 1: I think this is a tough spot, tough matchup for

566
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: them against the Saints.

567
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is uh. I think it's a good spot

568
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: to fade, since they should have lost by a lot

569
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 2: more or less. You the thrift and missed a couple

570
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 2: of touchdowns too. I'm a bit concerned, like the sainsus

571
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,120
Speaker 2: song getting as much pressure as I thought, but they

572
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 2: don't know which is good. But that is a bit concerning.

573
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 2: But Higgins also has banged up. He couldn't really go

574
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 2: last week against the Ravens, so we'll see. I mean

575
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 2: he's tried to go then he was limited the rest

576
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 2: of the way, so that would obviously not help things did.

577
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 2: Play calling for the Bengals just continues.

578
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 5: To be oh, like down by the goal line, they

579
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 5: what they're doing, but they're just trying to running the

580
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 5: walls too much and like you could get away with

581
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 5: that a little bit more against the Ravens run dye

582
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 5: than the Saints.

583
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 2: So good luck if they try that again. And that's

584
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 2: one of the reasons the Bengals have gone under ten

585
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 2: straight games them in the Colts. The Colts have gone

586
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: under ten straight games too, the longest streak for what

587
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 2: it's worth over the past thirty years of any team

588
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 2: going over under the twenty ten Cowboys went over twelve straight,

589
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 2: so we'll see if either the Bengals or the Colts

590
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 2: can get to can break that and get to thirteen.

591
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 2: But yeah, just the play calling. Borrow is not really

592
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 2: playing with a ton of confidence because of the offensive

593
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 2: line and the play calling, and it's just it's just

594
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 2: not a great, such a sweat situation right now. With Cincinnati,

595
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 2: they certainly have a little ton of talent, can still

596
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 2: turn it around. That offensive line just has to figure

597
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 2: it out, and the play call needs to be better,

598
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 2: and it ended up being better last year at the

599
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 2: end of the year, so we'll see if that's what

600
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 2: it takes again. But yeah, I don't disagree going with

601
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 2: the Saints here for sure. Oh yeah, not a bad idea.

602
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 1: I actually be proud. I actually had something about special

603
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,959
Speaker 1: teams written down in Saints. So say the Saints are

604
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: actually better in offensive DVOA, then the Bengals through five

605
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 1: games or twentieth Cincinnati's twenty fifth, and then they're both

606
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: they both have top twelve defenses. So we just got

607
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: to hope that New Orleans gets some special teams regression

608
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 1: because New Orleans is thirty second in special teams DVOA,

609
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: but a lot of that is Will Lutz has only

610
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 1: hit five of nine field goals. He obviously had the

611
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: doink London, but he's a career eighty five percent kicker

612
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: eighty six percent in New Orleans, so you think that

613
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 1: would regress. But you know that that's kind of been

614
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 1: an issue. But they got tasting healthy now, so you

615
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: can return some kickoffs. So I think the special teams

616
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: should trend up like but that that's kind of been

617
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: like a hidden thing that's been hurting New Orleans and

618
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 1: some but probably a lot of it to do with

619
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: that Panther game where they just like ever after error.

620
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 1: But yeah, I had to throw that in here, all right?

621
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 1: Where you going?

622
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 2: All right? For my third pick and the fifth overall

623
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 2: of the week six Sunday six Pack presented by FanDuel,

624
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Philadelphia Eagles minus six at home

625
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 2: against the Dallas Cowboys. Make sure you shop around here

626
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 2: if you can. By the time of recording this might

627
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 2: see might be some five and ass out there. But look,

628
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: last week I got to give credit to the Cowboys defense.

629
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 2: They beat me straight up. I also had the ram

630
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 2: live they beat me straight up on that defense. Got

631
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: a touchdown I think on the third play of the game,

632
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 2: and they never look back. Cooper Rush didn't have to

633
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 2: do anything. If that happens again, Dallas could win this game.

634
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 2: Dallas could cover. But I'll bet against Philly turning the

635
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 2: ball over in Dallas getting a defenseive touchdown and Cooper

636
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 2: Rush having to actually do something here to win the game.

637
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 2: Cowboys twenty fifth and epa per play on offense this year.

638
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 2: I mean Cooper Rush has four touchdowns, no interceptions. He

639
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:25,719
Speaker 2: has three big time throws on the year, five turnover

640
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 2: worthy plays, three other turnover worthy plays that were overturned

641
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 2: because of penalty. If you look at the Cowboys results

642
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 2: this year on offense, they are twenty fifth in yards

643
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: per drive, twenty fifth. They're scoring during their win streak,

644
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 2: they're score averaging twenty two points per game. They haven't

645
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: eclipsed twenty five points in any of their wins this year.

646
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 2: And they beat Washington, the Giants, this Bengals team that

647
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 2: we just talked about as a disaster, the Rams, who

648
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 2: are obviously a disaster. And what do all those teams

649
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 2: have in common? And this is one of the mistakes

650
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 2: that I had last week. Washington Giants, sinci Rams offensive

651
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: line problems. They're all ranked twenty six the worst and

652
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 2: adjusted sack rate. They're all also bottom ten in line yards.

653
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: Just four terrible offensive lines and Dallas' defensive line is

654
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 2: basically winning them games. Well, now you go from playing

655
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 2: four all full offensive lines to the best in the NFL.

656
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 2: Eagles offensive line, which is the number one pass protection

657
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 2: unit by some measures, can contain this Dallas pass rush.

658
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 2: I know there's some injuries, there's some injuries on both sides,

659
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 2: but I think everyone should be good to go. Mayata's

660
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 2: probably the biggest question. But I think they just hold

661
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 2: them out as a precautionary measure last week. And if

662
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 2: you look, I mean Dickerson, Kelsey, Samola, and Johnson having

663
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 2: a lot of sack this year. Kelsey and Dickerson are

664
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 2: ranked second and third and pressure rate allowed of all

665
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 2: qualified linemen. I mean, this offensive line is elite. What

666
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: is that going to allow the Eagles to do? Get

667
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 2: the one game going, which you can do against Dallas,

668
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: and more importantly, just contain the Cowboys pressure, which no

669
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 2: one that they've played has really been able to do.

670
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 2: Bucks even we're getting pressured with their offensive line issues,

671
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 2: even in the Cowboys loss. But this is the biggest

672
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 2: test that the Dallas defensive line will face. It's strength

673
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 2: on strength. Eagles can neutralize Dallas's strength. And then it

674
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 2: comes down to, Okay, which quarterback do you trust more?

675
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 2: And I'll take Jalen Hurts on this offense over Cooper

676
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 2: rush and that offense any day of the week. It's

677
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 2: also just an awful spot for Dallas. You know they

678
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,919
Speaker 2: went they were in New York short week, back home

679
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 2: to Dallas, out to the West Coast to play the Rams,

680
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 2: and back across the country to play Philly. So it's

681
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 2: not the best travel for this team. And yeah, they've

682
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,359
Speaker 2: been getting quite fortunate, like I said, the past couple

683
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 2: of weeks. They deserve that win and covered last week,

684
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 2: but you know, you get a defensive touchdown early. They

685
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 2: ended up with two h thirty yards of offense. I

686
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 2: mean Cooper rushed through for what eighty at eighty or

687
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,839
Speaker 2: eighty passing yards passing yards in the game. He didn't

688
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 2: have to do anything. I'm very confident that he will

689
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 2: have to do something to win this game against maybe

690
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,360
Speaker 2: the best team in the NFC. So Kyle Allen started

691
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 2: five and oh straight up and against the spread. Cooper

692
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 2: Rush did it as as well. Let's go to war

693
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 2: one more time, Coop.

694
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 1: I just I don't understand his vendetta you have against Coop.

695
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 1: I mean, usually you're you're trying to back these backup

696
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 1: quarterbacks and taking the points. You've got this vendetta against

697
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: Coop Man. I get it, but I think a lot

698
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 1: of points.

699
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 2: I think he's uh significantly worse than Dak. I mean,

700
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 2: like four or five points worse than DAK. You're telling

701
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 2: me that the Eagles. I think the Eagles are you know,

702
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 2: about a field goal better than the Cowboys at full

703
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:56,400
Speaker 2: strength for both teams. And now this this line's assuming

704
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 2: that you know, basically these teams are you know, Dak.

705
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 2: There's not much of a difference between DAK and Cooper Rush,

706
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 2: which a lot of people believe, which I am like

707
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 2: adamantly saying, no Cooper Rushes. They're not winning for anything

708
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 2: that Cooper Rush is doing. There's people are like, he

709
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 2: doesn't turn it over, He's tried to turn it over.

710
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 2: He's got four drop picks. There were two drop picks,

711
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 2: two picks that were taken away because of penalty, and

712
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 2: then last week they just got a lead, and they said,

713
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 2: Coop Chill do not lose his game, So I don't

714
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 2: think that he's And look, they beat junk and they

715
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 2: played jump offensive lines and uh uh, and the Eagles

716
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 2: are going to get pressure and Cooper Rush is gonna

717
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 2: have to deal with that here and in a raucous environment,

718
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,800
Speaker 2: in a game script he's gonna actually have to make throws.

719
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 2: And I think this is going up against the best

720
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 2: team in the NFC. I think this is Eagles by

721
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 2: a touchdown plus. But certainly I'm wrong with Cooper before.

722
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 1: Here we go, man, I mean, and yeah, like it's

723
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 1: I get it. It makes sense from the standpoint of

724
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 1: you know where if you have the Eagles rated better

725
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,800
Speaker 1: than the Cowboys and now it still makes me nervous,

726
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:13,320
Speaker 1: you know, laying six. This Cowboys defense just game wrecking teams.

727
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:15,879
Speaker 1: I mean, this will be the best offensive line they

728
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 1: faced by far, though, So if they if they can,

729
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 1: if they can do things in this game, then that's

730
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,439
Speaker 1: that's how you know it's gonna I mean, I can't

731
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 1: believe that we're sitting here Week six. You have the

732
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 1: Giants four and one, the Cooper Rush Cowboys right there,

733
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 1: and the Eagles like this NNFC East is suddenly like

734
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 1: one of the best divisions in football, best division in

735
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 1: football really, so it's it's pretty nuts, all right.

736
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 2: Uh.

737
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:43,879
Speaker 1: For my third and final pick, the sixth overall of

738
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,799
Speaker 1: the week six Sunday six Pack presented by FanDuel, I

739
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: am going with the New York Jets plus seven at

740
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers, and I think the Jets match

741
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 1: up well here, you know it, you know, I know

742
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 1: the Packers are kind of coming off a loss, and

743
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:05,840
Speaker 1: that's historically when Aaron Rodgers has been a cover machine.

744
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 1: But I went back and looked, and so Aaron Rodgers

745
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 1: is forty twenty one and one against the spread coming

746
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 1: off a straight up loss, but he's only six and

747
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 1: five against the spread when the number is seven or

748
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 1: more since twenty fifteen, so a lot. And the same

749
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 1: thing when you look at him coming off against the

750
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: spread loss essentially five hundred since twenty fifteen, So the

751
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 1: market is kind of adjusted in these spots. Where he

752
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 1: really crushes it is when he's you know, and it's

753
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: like somewhere in the field goals range under a touchdown.

754
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: But I like the way the Jets match up in

755
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 1: this game because they're kind of like New Orleans. I

756
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 1: think they should see some regression in the sack department.

757
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 1: They are fourth in pressure rate this year, are the

758
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: New York Jets, and they have achieved that despite blitzing

759
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 1: at the fourth lowest rate. And you've probably heard me

760
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 1: say this before when it comes to fading Aaron Rodgers,

761
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 1: you want to get pressure without blitzing. This is why

762
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,919
Speaker 1: we used to love to fade him when he would

763
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 1: play the San Francisco forty nine Ers, by the way,

764
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 1: who were coordinated by Robert Sawah, who's the Jets head

765
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:13,359
Speaker 1: coach now. So Salwa has come up with some really

766
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 1: good game plans against Rogers in the past. They held

767
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 1: him to one hundred and four yards and thirty three

768
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 1: attempts in the regular season game in twenty nineteen, a

769
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 1: couple of picks, three sacks in a playoff game. But

770
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 1: you have this d line for the Jets with Quinn Williams,

771
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 1: Franklin Meyers, Carl Lawson all grading out his top fifteen

772
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 1: pass rushers, Sheldon Rankins, Bryce Huff grading out top twenty

773
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 1: five overall with their position, and then this Green Bay

774
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 1: O line still not I think back to where it was,

775
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 1: but you also have to factor in that because there's

776
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 1: no Adams, Rogers has to hold the ball longer than

777
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 1: he had he's had to in the past, or he's

778
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 1: just throwing these like quick passes that are going nowhere.

779
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 1: And the Jets actually have two really good outside corners

780
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 1: as well, with DJ Reid and Sauce Gardner. They're both

781
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: in the you know, in the quartile in terms of grades,

782
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 1: and they've been playing well, I mean if you just watch,

783
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 1: so it hasn't all come together yet in terms of

784
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,840
Speaker 1: the overall defensive metrics. I think we've talked about this

785
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: under Salah, they haven't been good, but I think this

786
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: Jets team is pretty underrated on both sides of the ball.

787
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 1: I think with this D line, I think they could

788
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: get pressure on Rodgers without without having a blitz and

789
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: he's five point five yards in attempt under pressure, no touchdowns,

790
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 1: one interception, a fifty one passer rating and a twenty

791
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:32,800
Speaker 1: two percent sack rate. Does Aaron Rodgers have under pressure?

792
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 1: So nobody you know, guys aren't getting open as fast.

793
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 1: And then on the other side of the ball, Green

794
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 1: Bay as they usually are year after year, they say

795
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 1: they're going to fix it and they don't the run

796
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,240
Speaker 1: defense thirtieth in DVOA. And why is that important? Because

797
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 1: the Jets have kind of transitioned to Breissee Hall as

798
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 1: their lead back now over Michael Carter, and Breese Hall

799
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 1: is seventh in rushing DVOA. You know, he's he's a

800
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 1: significant upgrade over Carter, who still can you know, do

801
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 1: some things. But Resaw, I think is a special player.

802
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: And they have talent at receiver, I mean querly more

803
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: talent than the Giants had. The Giants were kind of,

804
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,479
Speaker 1: you know, getting whatever they wanted, crossing routes all day

805
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:14,240
Speaker 1: against this defense. So I just this, this defense doesn't

806
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 1: scare me, and his offense doesn't scare me for the Packers,

807
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 1: And so I'll take the seven, and I'm I actually

808
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:22,319
Speaker 1: have it put in the app. I haven't bet yet

809
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:24,839
Speaker 1: because I'm guessing we're gonna get to seven and a half.

810
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 1: I see already some seven minus one oh fives for

811
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 1: the Jets, So I'm guessing we get to seven and

812
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 1: a half, maybe we even get to eight. So but

813
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 1: I want at least the seven and a half. But

814
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: for the purposes of the show, the line is seven

815
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 1: on FANDUL right, now I'm taking it. This Packer team

816
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 1: just does not scare me on out of the side

817
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 1: of the ball anymore.

818
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 2: I'm gonna save this for the total. I have to

819
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 2: play on this total here, but I will say, yeah,

820
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 2: the Packers offenses is broken. Their receivers can't get any separation.

821
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 2: The offensive line isn't playing well. Like Backdari couldn't. He

822
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 2: played like one drive in the second half last week.

823
00:41:58,280 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 2: I think they only got three, but they were like

824
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 2: rotating and out. But the most concerning thing is they

825
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 2: just can't throw the ball down field. There's nothing to

826
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 2: really scare anybody. Rogers last week throwing beyond five yards

827
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 2: seven of nineteen, seven of nineteen against the giant secondary

828
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 2: that was missing adri Jackson. Their other starting corner was

829
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 2: already on the ir like this isn't an elite giant secondary,

830
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 2: and they couldn't. They got shut out in the second half.

831
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 2: Rogers usually is good in these smash spots. Look, he's

832
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 2: forty two to twenty two, one against the spread off

833
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 2: the loss thirty sixteen and one against the spread off

834
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 2: the loss away from home eight to no since twenty nineteen.

835
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,959
Speaker 2: But some of these, you know, you have to take trends.

836
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 2: You know, trends don't mean automatically is going to be

837
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 2: a cover. And you have their's contacts all these things,

838
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 2: and that's why you know, some of the some of

839
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 2: these things with Brady haven't been working this year as

840
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 2: much that if you know that the Packers in the

841
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 2: past have always had an explosive offense. They had devontadis

842
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 2: the offenses right now is can't figure things out. So

843
00:42:58,080 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 2: but I'll say the rest of analysis when we get

844
00:42:59,640 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 2: to the total.

845
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 1: And to your point, I mean about the trends, Like

846
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 1: again I went back and looked, because it's those trends

847
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 1: essentially they're pretty much applying when he's a smaller favorite,

848
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,399
Speaker 1: like when he's a favorite of a touchdown or more.

849
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 1: They're all essentially five hundred even Rogers career at Lambeau

850
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 1: sixty six, thirty five and three, sixty five percent, fifteen

851
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,839
Speaker 1: and fourteen against the spread when it's over six since

852
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen, like the market has adjusted and they're just

853
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 1: inflating the lines now in these spots where he you know,

854
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:32,359
Speaker 1: these smash spots for him. So yeah, I'm not really

855
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: scared to try. But I mean, am I crazy, Like

856
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 1: this this Jets team, like irrespective of their opponent, this league,

857
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 1: this Jets team suddenly like if Zach Wilson could just

858
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 1: not be like the terrible Zach Wilson that he was

859
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: as a rookie and be like this like average ish

860
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 1: version of Zach Wilson. Like, this Jets team has some talent,

861
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:53,800
Speaker 1: like at a lot of spots that you want to

862
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 1: have talent at receiver, cornerback. They might be getting healthier

863
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: on the O line, D line is strong. Like I'm

864
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 1: starting to like this Jets team, hopefully Salah And and

865
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 1: you got the battle of little floors here too, so

866
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 1: that should be interesting.

867
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 2: You have to keep in mind the Jets have three

868
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:16,319
Speaker 2: wins over Tripisky were set in minute barraccos fashion and

869
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 2: then against Skyler Thompson. And last week Zach Wilson looked good,

870
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 2: but I mean you had the that game just kind

871
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 2: of snowball on Thompson and the Dolphins corners were out.

872
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 2: I'm still not a buyer but in Wilson, but if

873
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 2: he could take a net, it could show consistently that

874
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 2: he's improved. And yeah, it's like wow, it's just the defense.

875
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 2: The corners are really good sauces Corners like who I'm

876
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 2: like the head of his fan club. He's better than

877
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 2: I thought he'd be right away. Usually takes time for rookies.

878
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 2: Read has been really good. So like the Jets will

879
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:48,759
Speaker 2: be able to do a lot of things in this

880
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 2: particular you know, every week, but in this particular matchup

881
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 2: with Corners, you can trust out on islands, and you

882
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,359
Speaker 2: can especially do that here against the Packers receiving room,

883
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:00,720
Speaker 2: where it's like like the postgame interview, it's like Randall

884
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 2: Cobb saying I'm not a nursing patient, Like that's that's

885
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 2: that's bad if that's the offense, is like Randall cop

886
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 2: convincing everyone that he's not and deserves to be putting

887
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 2: a nursing though.

888
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 1: He looks good. Though I'm I know.

889
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 2: He's a best receiver, but like and he's hot, telling

890
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:18,239
Speaker 2: everyone he's like, yo, I'm not in a nursing him.

891
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 2: But Randall Copp should not be your your go to

892
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 2: guy at twenty twenty two. You should be your third guy.

893
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 5: Uh.

894
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:26,799
Speaker 2: But he asked look cool without him? Man if he

895
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 2: like pulls a hammy or something.

896
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:31,919
Speaker 1: You know what. This reminds me of this Packers team.

897
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 1: Remember I think it was the first year you and

898
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 1: I did the pod together. I think it was twenty

899
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: nineteen where the Packers were like every week it would

900
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: be like a three point win or like a one

901
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 1: point win, and like they ended up winning thirteen games.

902
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: But it was like we just kept saying, like, yo,

903
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 1: this team's luck is going to run out. Sometimes team's

904
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 1: luck it seems like that same kind of team, except

905
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: their luck is actually running out a lot of these

906
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 1: games now, Like it's like like Rogers throwing pick sixes,

907
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 1: like barely beating Bareley, ZAPPI getting the like imagine if

908
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 1: Brian Dabo had the Jets roster, like that would be amazing.

909
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 1: But I digress. So let's see quarterback wise, Let's see

910
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 1: what we got this week. We got we got Jalen Hurts,

911
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 1: Skyra Thompson, and Kenny Pickett, and then.

912
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 2: I got some. I got something that can move at least.

913
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:25,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I got Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence and maybe

914
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 1: Taste some, maybe some Taysoom Hill, probably Andy, But yeah,

915
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 1: we got some. We got some quarterbacks that can move

916
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: in this line.

917
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 2: Most importantly, back to our roots. Lots of lots of dogs.

918
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 2: And yeah, like last week, that's a risk. Like look,

919
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 2: I was saying, complaining off the battle of some of

920
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 2: our picks. That's the NFL, Like we took some favorites

921
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 2: and you're you're gonna get back doors? How many times

922
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:45,879
Speaker 2: in the past if we got a dog to come

923
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 2: in the back door, sneak in there. But let's let's

924
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 2: roll yes there.

925
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 1: So yeah, phillyp mine six, Miami plus three and a half,

926
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus eight and a half are stuck. I'm going

927
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,360
Speaker 1: Jags plus one and a half, Saints plus one and

928
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 1: a half, Jets plus seven. That is gonna rap it

929
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:04,799
Speaker 1: for a week six Sunday six pack. It is now

930
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 1: time for the coaches pep Talk. There's not one of you,

931
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 1: not one of you with a win, all right. This

932
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 1: week's Coaches pep Talk comes to us from actor Keegan

933
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 1: Michael Key from the TV show Key and Peel, And

934
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,480
Speaker 1: I mean stuck. I saw you tweeting about it. I

935
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 1: mean everyone was tweeting about it. Like we got to

936
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 1: dedicate this one to to the refs, specifically to we

937
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 1: want to go Cheffers, Boger, both of them.

938
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny. This is like my redemption week end

939
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 2: of refs, because I tweet every weekend about the WOTE

940
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 2: trio hockey Lely, Boger and Cheffer's I hate when they're

941
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 2: on any of my games. They are there, and if

942
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 2: you look back at penalty sets, are always the top

943
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 2: three in penalties. Throne. We have to dedicate it to

944
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 2: Cheffers because I mean that the We've seen bad roughing

945
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 2: the passer calls before, and Boger had an awful one

946
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 2: against Brady. We've seen them before. Some of that is

947
00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:01,919
Speaker 2: the league, like we got to be able to review

948
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 2: these or something. Cheffer's calling making that call and then

949
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 2: petrified to make another call against against the Chiefs. I

950
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 2: was on the Raiders. It was the worst thing that

951
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,320
Speaker 2: ever happened to the Raiders was the Chris Jones penalty.

952
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 6: This guy came on at one point with his voice cracking,

953
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 6: saying there is no penalty, but like so please love me,

954
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 6: Kansas City, please, and he wouldn't call They're nine penalty

955
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 6: nine to zero penalties on the Raiders pre snap in

956
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:31,279
Speaker 6: the third quarter.

957
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 2: And he calls a holding on a field goal that

958
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 2: takes the missed field goal off the board, gives the

959
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 2: Chiefs a touchdown. The best part of that, mister Carl Cheffers,

960
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 2: is that a holding on a defensive holding on a

961
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 2: field goal had not been called since twenty fifteen, also

962
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 2: against the Raiders, also by Carl Scheffers, which is just amazing.

963
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:55,760
Speaker 2: By the way, that's when you can have an amazing

964
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:59,760
Speaker 2: home field advantage. The crowd was basically officiating the game,

965
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 2: booing every time he tried to take the mic, and

966
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:04,879
Speaker 2: he didn't want to call a penalty on him, and

967
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 2: there was about ten makeup calls the other way. That's

968
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 2: why you can't have these awful, egregious penalties. You have

969
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 2: to be able to review them, just look at them

970
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 2: real quick, because then you have a ref who's then

971
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 2: trying to do makeup calls and like I, you know,

972
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 2: the whole games of Force. Look, I was covering no time.

973
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 2: It's not like I lost money in the game, and

974
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 2: it was a Force. It's a billion dollar league. You

975
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 2: can't have a guy I'm petrified to make a call

976
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 2: and just letting the crown dictate the rest of the game. Amazing.

977
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:32,840
Speaker 2: So yes, we're dedicating it to Scheffer's.

978
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 1: Y'all want to play?

979
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 2: Are you out of your goddamn mind. Do you want

980
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 2: to go to war?

981
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:42,359
Speaker 1: Because we could go to war? So you better check yourself, y'all.

982
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 4: Feel me, you're done messed up. Now take your ass

983
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 4: on down to office right now. We're telling him exactly

984
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 4: what you did for I break my foot off in

985
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 4: your ass and subordinate and churlish.

986
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:58,520
Speaker 1: Like it was just a it was a great Twitter night, honestly,

987
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 1: you know what, like me and my we hasn't been

988
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: talking about this. I hate that numbers we used to

989
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 1: feel confident in we have to sweat now, Like since

990
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 1: when do we have to sweat the seven and a

991
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:11,840
Speaker 1: half when it's like a back and forth game because

992
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:14,720
Speaker 1: every team just wants to go for two every single time,

993
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 1: Like it's like Jesus Christ, because like give me the tie,

994
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,920
Speaker 1: then it's like okay, field goal, touchdown, overtime, six point whatever.

995
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,359
Speaker 1: Seven and a half should be golden. Every week. Now

996
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 1: you just see teams going for on fourth down, going

997
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 1: for two, going for two, even that Bucks game, like

998
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 1: I mean twenty one to fifteen, really we're doing we're

999
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 1: doing that now. Oh man, I guess analytics has truly

1000
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 1: taken over. But I actually kind.

1001
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 2: Of yeah, that was annoying because that Raiders game should

1002
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:41,160
Speaker 2: have been. I was like, wow, this should have never

1003
00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:43,360
Speaker 2: been a sweat. Now these two versions have kind of

1004
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,319
Speaker 2: thrown a little, yeah bro, little renching. So but yeah,

1005
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 2: we're dedicating to the Cheffers.

1006
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 1: This one's for you, Mane. All right, onto our favorite

1007
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 1: total of the week. I'll start us off and kind

1008
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: of foreshadowed this, but going with the Minnesota Miami under

1009
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:02,839
Speaker 1: forty five five and a half and pretty much there's

1010
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 1: a couple of things that I like about this under.

1011
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 1: For one, obviously, Skyra Thompson started should be a little

1012
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 1: bit of a downgrade on the total in my opinion.

1013
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 1: He averaged a four point five net yards per pass

1014
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 1: and eight point seven yards per completion. And I think

1015
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 1: that's how you're gonna kind of have to play with him.

1016
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:20,359
Speaker 1: You're gonna you have guys that are fast, but I

1017
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 1: think you're just gonna air it out with him. You're

1018
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 1: gonna kind of throw do a lot around the line

1019
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 1: of scrimmage and let those guys create and you know,

1020
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 1: go down the field, and I think the drives will

1021
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 1: take a little bit longer than they have, you know,

1022
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 1: when Tua was healthy. But also, as you mentioned, you know,

1023
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 1: Armstead and aggravated the toe. Xavier Howard should help the

1024
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 1: Miami defense, which has been getting blasted. There's also the

1025
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 1: humidity factor, which I feel like we've talked about this

1026
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 1: at times before, but humidity. Miami's played two games in

1027
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 1: Miami this year so far. For Week one, New England,

1028
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 1: forty six and a half was a total, twenty seven

1029
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 1: points are scored. It goes under by nineteen and a half.

1030
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 1: Then Buffalo, a game that I was on the under,

1031
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:03,239
Speaker 1: it closes up fifty four and a half, ends with

1032
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:05,640
Speaker 1: forty points. You probably should have had forty eight or forty

1033
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:08,799
Speaker 1: six or whatever, but you know, still goes under by

1034
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half. So two games in Miami both

1035
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:15,880
Speaker 1: have gone under by more than two touchdowns. Forecast expecting

1036
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 1: seventy percent humidity, Miami unders fifty nine percent when the

1037
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 1: totals forty four and above and the humidity is sixty

1038
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 1: percent and above. Going back to two thousand and five,

1039
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 1: twenty four and seventeen to the under and Miami's twenty

1040
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 1: seventh in neutral pace, Minnesota plays a little bit above average,

1041
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 1: but they're a little slower when they're leading, which you

1042
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:40,319
Speaker 1: know they are favored. But I expect Miami to slow

1043
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:43,359
Speaker 1: it down handlebolled to mostert and they're pretty much near

1044
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 1: the bottom of league almost every pace metric. So yeah,

1045
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 1: give me the under in this kind of middling forty

1046
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:50,919
Speaker 1: five and a half total game.

1047
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Dolphins homefield advantage, especially early in

1048
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 2: the year, is very underrated. I think they're fourteen and

1049
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 2: five against the spread since the start of twenty twenty,

1050
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 2: which is the most profitable home team in the NFL.

1051
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, that that could be a factor against this

1052
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:13,920
Speaker 2: Minnesota offense. And yeah, I'm going to go with I

1053
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 2: don't hate that at all. I'm gonna because I do

1054
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 2: expect Miami to lean on the lean on the ground

1055
00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 2: game here. I'm going to go with the Packers Jets

1056
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 2: under forty five and a half. The one unit that

1057
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 2: I think is underperformed for the Packers. Like, I think

1058
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 2: the offense is what it is, There's just it just

1059
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:32,720
Speaker 2: lacks exposed to this and I think the Jets defense

1060
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 2: can match up well here. But I do think that

1061
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 2: you know, Wilson has kind of overperformed given the circumstances

1062
00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:40,719
Speaker 2: of who he's played, and then they've also had just

1063
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 2: some like late even with Flacco some late crazy touchdowns.

1064
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:47,759
Speaker 2: But I think that the Packers defense has underperformed, and

1065
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:50,320
Speaker 2: I think you get a spirited effort here at home.

1066
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 2: And I also think it might not it might help

1067
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 2: your bet, but I think you're going to get the

1068
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 2: Packers leaning on the ground here. Yeah, I'm just going

1069
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:00,359
Speaker 2: to help the under and they that's a they've been

1070
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 2: doing up until they had a couple drives last week

1071
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 2: where they didn't. Then they had those two throws late

1072
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 2: that got deflected by the Giants, and then you heard

1073
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 2: comments from Aaron Jones and saying basically like just give

1074
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 2: give one of us the ball and we get the

1075
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:21,240
Speaker 2: first down. So I think with their their two headed

1076
00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:23,840
Speaker 2: monster backfield, I think that you're going to see the

1077
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 2: Packers lean on their run game some more. And I

1078
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 2: mean last week what my writers was averaging five yards

1079
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:32,320
Speaker 2: per attempt and the Packers were averaging five yards per rush,

1080
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 2: so I can see they're great. So I think that

1081
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:37,719
Speaker 2: you're getting a heavier running script from the Packers. And

1082
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 2: the Packers are also one of either it depends on

1083
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 2: the week, but they're one of the two slowest teams

1084
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 2: in the NFL neutral situation piece. They don't do not

1085
00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:48,320
Speaker 2: go fast, and especially this year, they're going even slower

1086
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 2: because they have, you know, new receivers and new parts. So, yeah,

1087
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:54,719
Speaker 2: there's problems on the green Bay offense. I expect to

1088
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,280
Speaker 2: bounce back for the green Bay defense, and I expect

1089
00:54:57,280 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 2: a heavy rush script from the Packers though, So give

1090
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:02,760
Speaker 2: me the under forty five and a half.

1091
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, and both of these totals, oh, I know that

1092
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 1: obviously the Dolphins one got hit once Skyward was announced

1093
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 1: the starter. But both of these earlier in the day,

1094
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure the Jets Packers is still like this,

1095
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:21,759
Speaker 1: like about like ninety percent of the money was on

1096
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:24,920
Speaker 1: the over and yet the books, you know, we're moving

1097
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 1: it up at all, which kind of tells you, you know,

1098
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 1: it's we're on the right side of these. I mean,

1099
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:32,759
Speaker 1: we scoring is down this year. Like twenty one eight

1100
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:35,839
Speaker 1: points per game is the league average now it's usually

1101
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 1: around twenty three. And so we're talking about outside of

1102
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 1: that Seahawks game and the Bills game. This is these

1103
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 1: are the highest total on the slate, essentially, these two,

1104
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 1: and I like, I don't think either of these offenses,

1105
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 1: whether it's the Dolphins with Thompson or whether it's the Packers,

1106
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:54,160
Speaker 1: whether it's the Jets, Like, none of these teams should

1107
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 1: be having like the third highest total on a slate,

1108
00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 1: So to try to get that half point there's that's

1109
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:03,200
Speaker 1: that's important one. Okay, So yeah, Jets, Packers under forty

1110
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 1: five and a half, Dolphins, Vikings under forty five and

1111
00:56:06,680 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 1: a half. Now is get into our favorite teaser?

1112
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 2: Oh yeah? Six point teasers don't.

1113
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 1: Change. Don't tease me to please? All right, I looks

1114
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:29,879
Speaker 1: like we're both going the same way, so you can

1115
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:31,399
Speaker 1: make this quick. What are you doing?

1116
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 2: Look, I've just googled stucky teaser actually teaser guide. I

1117
00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:38,720
Speaker 2: have a lot of content out there, but the gist

1118
00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 2: of it is, you want to be able to tease

1119
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 2: two teams, you know, through three and seven, so you

1120
00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:46,879
Speaker 2: know seven and a half eight point favorite down through

1121
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:50,279
Speaker 2: seven and three, or you know one to two point

1122
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 2: underdogs up through three and seven to lower the total

1123
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 2: the better. These points are more at a premium. So

1124
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:58,239
Speaker 2: that's what we're gonna do here. I'm gonna tease the

1125
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 2: Saints up two over a touchdown in a game with

1126
00:57:01,880 --> 00:57:05,720
Speaker 2: a total of forty three, and then the Jags teasing

1127
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:08,400
Speaker 2: them also up over a touchdown in a game with

1128
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:12,800
Speaker 2: a total of forty two, just your classic teaser spot,

1129
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 2: give me over touchdown on both of those teams that

1130
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 2: you like outright anyway, And I don't mind either of

1131
00:57:19,000 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 2: those bets. And that's that's another thing that I don't

1132
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 2: talk about enough when you know, not on everyone makes

1133
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 2: their own power ratings. But if you actually like also

1134
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:28,200
Speaker 2: like the side a little bit, then and teasing them

1135
00:57:28,240 --> 00:57:31,280
Speaker 2: up even has more value assuming that you are right

1136
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:33,360
Speaker 2: in the market's eventually going to move towards you. But

1137
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 2: we like these as a podcast, We like these sides regardless,

1138
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 2: so teasing them up over a touchdown a little more cushion.

1139
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:42,479
Speaker 2: This is just a massive plus V bet.

1140
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:45,720
Speaker 1: Actually, I got a question about that. So like in

1141
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 1: my case though, because I'm already betting the size, it

1142
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 1: doesn't actually make sense to me, Like it would be

1143
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 1: better if I just put double units on each side individually,

1144
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:57,720
Speaker 1: because I would be getting one ten rather than do

1145
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:00,920
Speaker 1: a teaser where it'd have I would be getting one two, right, Like,

1146
00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:03,560
Speaker 1: it would just make more sense to double up on

1147
00:58:03,640 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 1: each on each individual side.

1148
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, it depends on the price that you're going

1149
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 2: to get on your teaser, but you also do have

1150
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:15,320
Speaker 2: you could hit the teaser with right right? Yeah, yeah,

1151
00:58:15,360 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 2: so like what the way that I look at it is, Yeah,

1152
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 2: if you really like a side, then you want to bet,

1153
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 2: and if you have value on that side, then you

1154
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:26,440
Speaker 2: want to bet that side and not worrying about teasing it.

1155
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:29,840
Speaker 2: But when I go with sometimes I just try to

1156
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:31,440
Speaker 2: do one a week now A lot of times, you know,

1157
00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:33,760
Speaker 2: ideal the ideal world, you want to do like as

1158
00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 2: many of these as possible that are through the three

1159
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 2: and the seven, but you'll lose accounts and you'll get

1160
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 2: limited because they're really plus TV bets. So I actually

1161
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 2: look at the teasers as not okay, I'm also betting

1162
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 2: this team. It's just kind of like, here's my best

1163
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:51,000
Speaker 2: teaser on the board, completely separate. I could also have

1164
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:53,520
Speaker 2: bet one of these teams. I might not have, but yes,

1165
00:58:53,640 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 2: so like it's it's an approach thing if you're looking

1166
00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 2: at it just from Okay, why am I teasing this

1167
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:02,440
Speaker 2: side because I also like it and I should just

1168
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:06,160
Speaker 2: bet it straight have better odds on both of these. Yes,

1169
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 2: there's a slight chance that you could win the teaser,

1170
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:12,560
Speaker 2: not your sides, but yeah that that's a valid approach.

1171
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:14,200
Speaker 2: But the way that I look at it, and I

1172
00:59:14,240 --> 00:59:16,000
Speaker 2: think that's basically what we're doing with the podcast is

1173
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 2: just Okay, what's the best teaser option on the on

1174
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 2: the board, but your point, your points while taking.

1175
00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:23,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, like a lot of times what I like to

1176
00:59:23,800 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 1: do with teasers, I really don't love it to do

1177
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 1: it this week, but it's kind of treated like almost

1178
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 1: like a money line parlay, but for favorites. So a

1179
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:35,560
Speaker 1: lot of times I like to tease favorites down, like

1180
00:59:35,640 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 1: San Francisco and Tampa Bay last week. But this week,

1181
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 1: I mean I'm concerned about a lot of these favorites,

1182
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 1: Like I'm concerned about Green Bay, I'm concerned about Tampa Bay.

1183
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:47,640
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1184
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's just not one of those weeks.

1185
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:51,400
Speaker 2: Yeah. And one thing, one thing to add on that

1186
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 2: is if you are going to tease favorites down, something

1187
00:59:54,280 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 2: quick that you could do, especially because some of these

1188
00:59:56,000 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 2: books are their teaser prices are starting to get up there.

1189
00:59:58,680 --> 01:00:01,480
Speaker 2: Once you're up one thirty or above, it's not worth it.

1190
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:05,240
Speaker 1: Yep, good point. All right, let's get into a running

1191
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 1: line underdog parlay.

1192
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:14,600
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1193
01:00:14,800 --> 01:00:16,080
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1194
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:19,280
Speaker 1: All right, man, you hit another one, so you're carrying us.

1195
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 1: I gotta hold up my end of the bargain. You

1196
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 1: hit with the Jets last week. Seattle did not come through.

1197
01:00:26,160 --> 01:00:27,560
Speaker 1: Looked like they were going to be able to at

1198
01:00:27,560 --> 01:00:31,840
Speaker 1: one point, but didn't. I mean, their defense is so bad,

1199
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 1: so it's you know, perfect high variance team. So I'm

1200
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:36,760
Speaker 1: not you know, I don't regret the pick, but it

1201
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:38,439
Speaker 1: didn't work out this time. But where are you going?

1202
01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:43,000
Speaker 2: I'm going right back to your Seahawks for yeah. I

1203
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:46,040
Speaker 2: like that their the variance in nature of them. And

1204
01:00:46,120 --> 01:00:49,240
Speaker 2: also the Cardinals continue to come out slow. It's gonna

1205
01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:50,919
Speaker 2: cost them. If you look at who they beat this year,

1206
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:53,560
Speaker 2: they have wins over and I know they've been good

1207
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 2: on the road, blah blah blah. But they beat the

1208
01:00:56,600 --> 01:00:59,440
Speaker 2: Panthers and then their miraculous come back in fluky fashioned

1209
01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 2: down twenty the nothing against the Raiders, and the more

1210
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:05,440
Speaker 2: I see they're being they're being out scored eighty to

1211
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 2: twenty six in the first half. For what it's worth,

1212
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 2: I mean, Gino Smith, He's he leads the league in

1213
01:01:10,840 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 2: like fewest missed throws. He's number one in completion percentage

1214
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:19,880
Speaker 2: over expectation plus EPA, Like every stat is ridiculous.

1215
01:01:19,960 --> 01:01:22,720
Speaker 1: So he's no Cooper rush, He's no Cooper rush.

1216
01:01:22,800 --> 01:01:27,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, this this offense is humming, and I think that

1217
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:31,040
Speaker 2: they'll lost success against Arizona. Arizona will have success against

1218
01:01:31,400 --> 01:01:36,560
Speaker 2: the Seattle's defense, for sure, but yeah, give me Seattle

1219
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:39,439
Speaker 2: coming out here with a hot start as we've seen

1220
01:01:39,480 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 2: everyone do against Arizona with this offense at a dog

1221
01:01:43,120 --> 01:01:45,320
Speaker 2: price at home, and I think a game that might

1222
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:47,840
Speaker 2: be closed. I mean, I make Arizona small fair, but

1223
01:01:47,880 --> 01:01:50,080
Speaker 2: I think it's closer to a coint than a field goal.

1224
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:54,600
Speaker 2: And with the Seattle offense, let's let's ride the Seahawks.

1225
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:56,200
Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean last week, last week, that was

1226
01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:57,520
Speaker 2: I would have that was a great I mean, if

1227
01:01:57,520 --> 01:01:58,959
Speaker 2: you look at the boss, it was a dead even game.

1228
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:02,320
Speaker 2: To say it's just had one more score late. That

1229
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:06,480
Speaker 2: could happen again here it's Arizona. But that's why we're

1230
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:09,960
Speaker 2: throwing it at the money line dog dog yep, I

1231
01:02:10,080 --> 01:02:10,360
Speaker 2: like it.

1232
01:02:10,800 --> 01:02:14,040
Speaker 1: I'm going with the New England Patriots plus one twenty.

1233
01:02:14,200 --> 01:02:17,240
Speaker 1: Just a battle of two teams with shaky run defenses.

1234
01:02:17,360 --> 01:02:19,960
Speaker 1: But I think you're getting some value on the Patriots

1235
01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 1: here for a couple of reasons. One, both of these

1236
01:02:22,640 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 1: teams statistically have bad run defenses, but the Patriots schematically,

1237
01:02:27,600 --> 01:02:30,280
Speaker 1: I think could do some things to take away to run.

1238
01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 1: I thought they did some things against Detroit that you know,

1239
01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:36,840
Speaker 1: we're kind of specific to them that they maybe they

1240
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 1: didn't care to do it other matchups. But also I

1241
01:02:40,360 --> 01:02:42,080
Speaker 1: think you have a big coaching edge here and that

1242
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:44,480
Speaker 1: you know, you could always get just like a crazy

1243
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:47,760
Speaker 1: game plan from Belichick. Last time these two teams played,

1244
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:50,960
Speaker 1: Patriots were a small favorite. It was in Fox Sports,

1245
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 1: so the Patriots were a small favorite, but the teams

1246
01:02:53,560 --> 01:02:55,439
Speaker 1: were rated about the same, I think you would say.

1247
01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:58,439
Speaker 1: And Preven scored on his first drive of the game,

1248
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:01,240
Speaker 1: and the Patriots scored the next forty the last forty

1249
01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:04,480
Speaker 1: five points of the game and won forty five to seven.

1250
01:03:04,960 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 1: So this Cleveland, I mean, this Cleveland run dye is bad.

1251
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:12,560
Speaker 1: And you know, vermondre Stevenson, he's it's his time now.

1252
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:16,000
Speaker 1: Damien Harrison is hurt, but he's playing really well. And

1253
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:17,920
Speaker 1: I think the Patriots, you know, if they have to

1254
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:20,200
Speaker 1: scheme up, like okay, how do we run the ball

1255
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:22,720
Speaker 1: on a team and and stop the running like out

1256
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:25,560
Speaker 1: coach Kevin Stefanski and and and by the way, they

1257
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:28,840
Speaker 1: also know Jacoby Brissett better than most, so you know,

1258
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 1: Rissette has never played Belichick yet, but remember he was

1259
01:03:31,680 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 1: on the Patriots for a while. So I think I

1260
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 1: think you could just get a really good Patriot underdog

1261
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:41,160
Speaker 1: game plan here, and it's a chance to even get

1262
01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:44,240
Speaker 1: a Patriots blowout. But it's just there is a lot

1263
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:47,240
Speaker 1: of variants because both of these teams on paper cannot

1264
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:49,440
Speaker 1: stop the run at all, So it's just kind of

1265
01:03:49,480 --> 01:03:51,840
Speaker 1: kind of be back and forth. You know, might come

1266
01:03:51,880 --> 01:03:53,800
Speaker 1: down to like who has the ball last or maybe,

1267
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:57,439
Speaker 1: but you also got better kicker Patriots. Nick Folk doesn't

1268
01:03:57,480 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 1: miss inside of fifty and Kaid York is no Justin

1269
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:04,760
Speaker 1: Tucker as you like to say. So give me the pets.

1270
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:09,080
Speaker 2: I'm holding up a fake gun to your we're on

1271
01:04:09,200 --> 01:04:13,360
Speaker 2: video here, say say it. Say his name? Say is

1272
01:04:13,400 --> 01:04:15,120
Speaker 2: they the quarterback for the Patriots?

1273
01:04:15,200 --> 01:04:19,800
Speaker 1: Oh za Za Baily zappy.

1274
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:24,280
Speaker 2: Thank you whole breakdown of the Patriots, and you have

1275
01:04:24,320 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 2: to mention my boy's name, who, by the ways, two

1276
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:28,160
Speaker 2: and zero against the spread if we count last week.

1277
01:04:28,320 --> 01:04:30,560
Speaker 2: And I also liked that there's and if you look

1278
01:04:30,600 --> 01:04:31,880
Speaker 2: at his numbers last week, it was one of the

1279
01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:35,200
Speaker 2: best him in him and Gino Smith were like the

1280
01:04:35,200 --> 01:04:37,560
Speaker 2: two best quarterbacks from an E p A perspective. But

1281
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 2: he has good upside here too. It's like, all right,

1282
01:04:39,640 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 2: how good could he be? And like it's still it's

1283
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 2: still one of those like new rookies of team. So

1284
01:04:45,200 --> 01:04:47,000
Speaker 2: that I think that works in the favor of a

1285
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:50,160
Speaker 2: money line underdog. And yeah, you're right. The look the

1286
01:04:50,160 --> 01:04:52,160
Speaker 2: Pets Rundy has n't been great, but they faced the

1287
01:04:52,200 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 2: hardest schedule of opposing offenses so far in the NFL

1288
01:04:57,920 --> 01:05:01,000
Speaker 2: and the Browns Rundy. I mean, yes, the Browns have

1289
01:05:01,000 --> 01:05:04,320
Speaker 2: lost games by one to two and three, but a

1290
01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:06,360
Speaker 2: lot of that's because they can't get stops late. Look,

1291
01:05:06,400 --> 01:05:08,680
Speaker 2: I mean every team is just able to score late

1292
01:05:08,720 --> 01:05:11,040
Speaker 2: on them. Who would have thought the Browns are top

1293
01:05:11,120 --> 01:05:15,760
Speaker 2: five offense DVA and thirtieth on defense. They're thirty second

1294
01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:20,120
Speaker 2: in rush DVOA, thirtieth, rush defense success rate thirty first

1295
01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 2: and tackling their lineback after the lost Walker, their linebackers

1296
01:05:23,320 --> 01:05:25,600
Speaker 2: have been so bad they had a trade for Dion

1297
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:30,600
Speaker 2: Jones on Sunday night. Elliott Winfrey and Brian have been

1298
01:05:30,640 --> 01:05:33,680
Speaker 2: horrendous in the interior defensive line. They're getting no push,

1299
01:05:33,720 --> 01:05:37,040
Speaker 2: they're getting no stops, they're not taking up any blocks,

1300
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:40,240
Speaker 2: and then you have bad linebackers. It's it's just an

1301
01:05:40,280 --> 01:05:43,200
Speaker 2: horrendous situation. So yeah, the Patriots who have been these

1302
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:46,080
Speaker 2: past couple of weeks when they're playing these teams that

1303
01:05:46,160 --> 01:05:48,440
Speaker 2: have bad run defenses, they're able to just control the

1304
01:05:48,600 --> 01:05:50,680
Speaker 2: entire game and get a great push because what they've

1305
01:05:50,680 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 2: done the last two weeks against the Packers and the

1306
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:56,800
Speaker 2: Lions going up against another one here, So uh, don't

1307
01:05:56,840 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 2: hate it. And I wouldn't be surprised if you see

1308
01:06:00,160 --> 01:06:04,800
Speaker 2: Joe Wood's scapegoaded if the Browns get run all over

1309
01:06:04,880 --> 01:06:07,680
Speaker 2: again and they make a change of defensive coordinator. Yeah,

1310
01:06:07,720 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 2: a very disappointing season for him.

1311
01:06:09,560 --> 01:06:11,720
Speaker 1: I mean yeah, because the charges were i mean bottom

1312
01:06:11,720 --> 01:06:14,480
Speaker 1: of the weekend, yards before contact, pretty much every rushing metric,

1313
01:06:14,520 --> 01:06:16,240
Speaker 1: and they just went ham.

1314
01:06:16,080 --> 01:06:18,760
Speaker 2: But it sounds like this big pocket, like there was

1315
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:21,360
Speaker 2: like a pocket for I mean, it was crazy. It

1316
01:06:21,400 --> 01:06:25,160
Speaker 2: was the easiest running lanes I've ever seen every week

1317
01:06:25,160 --> 01:06:26,720
Speaker 2: against this Brown State. It's crazy.

1318
01:06:26,920 --> 01:06:29,200
Speaker 1: I think the line went to the spread went to

1319
01:06:29,280 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 1: two and a half because Mac Jones practiced, but if

1320
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:35,120
Speaker 1: he's ruled out, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes

1321
01:06:35,160 --> 01:06:38,200
Speaker 1: back to three. I actually don't mind just taking the Patriots,

1322
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:41,360
Speaker 1: you know, on the spread as well, because again I

1323
01:06:41,920 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 1: think just that kicker advantage in itself, I think is

1324
01:06:45,200 --> 01:06:47,600
Speaker 1: where something in a game like this, So all right,

1325
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:51,360
Speaker 1: moneyline dog plus one twenty two for the Seahawks against

1326
01:06:51,360 --> 01:06:54,520
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and plus one twenty for the Patriots against

1327
01:06:54,600 --> 01:06:57,880
Speaker 1: the Browns, that gets you about four x so one

1328
01:06:57,920 --> 01:07:02,840
Speaker 1: hundred gets you four eighty eight back nowadays, time for

1329
01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:06,520
Speaker 1: best of the rest the games we haven't covered in

1330
01:07:06,560 --> 01:07:11,600
Speaker 1: any other segment, but are still, as they say, meaningful

1331
01:07:12,000 --> 01:07:12,720
Speaker 1: to some.

1332
01:07:13,800 --> 01:07:16,200
Speaker 3: That's gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful

1333
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:19,000
Speaker 3: to some of you, and you know what I mean.

1334
01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:23,160
Speaker 1: I start with the big one, Bill's Chiefs. Two and

1335
01:07:23,160 --> 01:07:25,440
Speaker 1: a half is the spread. I've seen some threes out

1336
01:07:25,440 --> 01:07:29,360
Speaker 1: there in favor of Buffalo, So Chiefs are a home dog,

1337
01:07:29,560 --> 01:07:33,880
Speaker 1: pretty rare. The total is fifty three and a half

1338
01:07:33,960 --> 01:07:35,480
Speaker 1: at FANDU. What are your thoughts on this one?

1339
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:37,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's first time my homes will be

1340
01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:41,600
Speaker 2: a home dog. I believe or maybe since this rookie year.

1341
01:07:41,600 --> 01:07:44,160
Speaker 2: It ends a streak of forty one straight home games

1342
01:07:44,760 --> 01:07:47,400
Speaker 2: as not being an underdog. That's the longest streak in

1343
01:07:47,440 --> 01:07:50,440
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl era. Assuming this line as Bills a favorite,

1344
01:07:50,440 --> 01:07:53,080
Speaker 2: which it will unless there's major injuries, Mahomes is seven

1345
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:54,960
Speaker 2: zero one against the spread as an underdog. For what

1346
01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:57,920
Speaker 2: it's worth this, I have the spot circle for the Bills.

1347
01:07:58,240 --> 01:08:00,880
Speaker 2: I lean Bills here. This is similar last year. It's

1348
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:02,760
Speaker 2: like they're going to Kansas City at they're losing the

1349
01:08:02,760 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 2: playoffs the year before. They've had this spot circle. They're

1350
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:07,640
Speaker 2: gonna come out of their hair on fire. The Chiefs.

1351
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:11,280
Speaker 2: They still have some issues, like they should arguably should

1352
01:08:11,280 --> 01:08:14,080
Speaker 2: have lost to the Chargers, should have lost to the

1353
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:18,559
Speaker 2: Raiders without Cheffer's and getting involved there and two point

1354
01:08:18,560 --> 01:08:20,639
Speaker 2: conversion if the two receivers don't run too each other

1355
01:08:20,760 --> 01:08:23,960
Speaker 2: like they could easily have three losses. Now, the Colts

1356
01:08:23,960 --> 01:08:26,240
Speaker 2: game was you could argue is just unlucky and their

1357
01:08:26,240 --> 01:08:27,920
Speaker 2: special teams didn't show up. We'll see if Buck Geer,

1358
01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:32,160
Speaker 2: by the way plays it's obviously important. Now this game,

1359
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:33,439
Speaker 2: there should be a lot of touchdowns, but like an

1360
01:08:33,439 --> 01:08:36,320
Speaker 2: extra point, the two point conversions like the two and

1361
01:08:36,320 --> 01:08:42,559
Speaker 2: a half then becomes a lot less important. So along

1362
01:08:42,600 --> 01:08:44,439
Speaker 2: those lines, I mean, yeah, I lean Bills here on

1363
01:08:44,479 --> 01:08:47,200
Speaker 2: the spot. I think that the Chiefs still have some issues.

1364
01:08:47,240 --> 01:08:49,560
Speaker 2: I want to see more of the injury report for

1365
01:08:49,600 --> 01:08:51,040
Speaker 2: the Bills that we don't have to get into this

1366
01:08:51,080 --> 01:08:52,719
Speaker 2: game too much because we know, like these two teams

1367
01:08:52,720 --> 01:08:55,040
Speaker 2: are two of the best NFC. They're both gonna put

1368
01:08:55,080 --> 01:09:00,320
Speaker 2: up points, and it's you know, I'm hesitant to just

1369
01:09:00,920 --> 01:09:02,320
Speaker 2: you know, like last year I back the Bills. I

1370
01:09:02,320 --> 01:09:04,720
Speaker 2: think it was a pick in this spot. So it's

1371
01:09:04,760 --> 01:09:06,600
Speaker 2: a little different now laying a juice two and a

1372
01:09:06,640 --> 01:09:09,920
Speaker 2: half three and it should be a back and forth game,

1373
01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:13,080
Speaker 2: great trading game, Like if you like the Chiefs, it's

1374
01:09:13,120 --> 01:09:15,320
Speaker 2: okay maybe and you're like I kind of like the Chiefs.

1375
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:19,360
Speaker 2: You know, for like sixteen of the last seventeen weeks

1376
01:09:19,479 --> 01:09:22,200
Speaker 2: goes to scores on their first possession, the Bills. The

1377
01:09:22,280 --> 01:09:25,320
Speaker 2: Chiefs usually really good on their first possession. Like, this

1378
01:09:25,400 --> 01:09:27,679
Speaker 2: game is probably back and forth. You could probably get

1379
01:09:27,680 --> 01:09:29,840
Speaker 2: a better number live on one of the sides you like,

1380
01:09:31,200 --> 01:09:33,439
Speaker 2: So I might have some bills for you and very

1381
01:09:33,479 --> 01:09:36,240
Speaker 2: tiny just because I had this spot circle. But it's

1382
01:09:36,320 --> 01:09:37,960
Speaker 2: two and a half juice. I thought maybe we could

1383
01:09:37,960 --> 01:09:40,960
Speaker 2: get like a one a pick, So maybe I'll wait

1384
01:09:41,000 --> 01:09:43,960
Speaker 2: to bet the Bills live and then guess who's really

1385
01:09:43,960 --> 01:09:45,960
Speaker 2: good coming from behind at home that the Chiefs live,

1386
01:09:46,000 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 2: and then maybe tried and middle this down of the

1387
01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:52,240
Speaker 2: wire should be an exciting game, big, big. We saw

1388
01:09:52,240 --> 01:09:56,360
Speaker 2: the Ravens loose in devastating fashion to the Bills. Devastating.

1389
01:09:56,360 --> 01:09:58,240
Speaker 2: I mean not because I'm a family for the future

1390
01:09:58,600 --> 01:10:00,960
Speaker 2: or even the future, because these are the games They're

1391
01:10:01,000 --> 01:10:04,439
Speaker 2: going to have massive playoff implications for seeding and in

1392
01:10:04,520 --> 01:10:07,759
Speaker 2: the AFC, it's all about that race to the one seed.

1393
01:10:08,000 --> 01:10:10,519
Speaker 2: This game will go a long way and determine who

1394
01:10:10,560 --> 01:10:14,719
Speaker 2: gets that and potentially could determine who you're the MVP

1395
01:10:14,880 --> 01:10:15,880
Speaker 2: market as well.

1396
01:10:16,720 --> 01:10:20,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely, it's this is a game like I almost

1397
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:22,679
Speaker 1: feel like the over might just be the best player

1398
01:10:22,680 --> 01:10:27,000
Speaker 1: in this game, because, Yeah, here's a crazy stat. Andy

1399
01:10:27,040 --> 01:10:30,799
Speaker 1: Reid coach teams when it's when they're a home dog.

1400
01:10:31,439 --> 01:10:34,920
Speaker 1: Since two thousand and four, the over is twenty and two.

1401
01:10:35,400 --> 01:10:37,559
Speaker 1: So that even goes back to his days with the Eagles.

1402
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:40,120
Speaker 1: With the Chiefs six and oh, it's never lost when

1403
01:10:40,120 --> 01:10:43,040
Speaker 1: he's a home dog, So take that for what it's worth. Yeah,

1404
01:10:43,120 --> 01:10:44,000
Speaker 1: crazy stat.

1405
01:10:43,840 --> 01:10:45,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say the one thing, Look, the Bills

1406
01:10:45,760 --> 01:10:48,640
Speaker 2: aren't totally healthy in the secondary, and then but the

1407
01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:53,479
Speaker 2: Chiefs don't have Tyreek Hill, so that kind of neutralizes itself.

1408
01:10:53,520 --> 01:10:54,960
Speaker 2: Like looking at that, when I look at this match

1409
01:10:55,000 --> 01:10:57,920
Speaker 2: up from like last year, how these teams have changed.

1410
01:10:58,520 --> 01:11:02,640
Speaker 2: But the Bills ability to generate pressure with their defensive

1411
01:11:02,680 --> 01:11:06,960
Speaker 2: line naturally is there are so much better at that

1412
01:11:07,080 --> 01:11:09,879
Speaker 2: and that is what I think ultimately could be the difference.

1413
01:11:10,680 --> 01:11:15,080
Speaker 2: But betting against Mahomes and the Chiefs crowd. Luckily Cheffer's

1414
01:11:15,120 --> 01:11:18,840
Speaker 2: isn't doing this game, but yeah, I think that's gonna

1415
01:11:18,840 --> 01:11:22,679
Speaker 2: be the difference. Is the Bill's ability to generate pressure

1416
01:11:22,760 --> 01:11:25,640
Speaker 2: on Mahomes and their offensive line has been shaky at

1417
01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:28,759
Speaker 2: times this year. In that regard, that's the biggest difference

1418
01:11:28,760 --> 01:11:30,680
Speaker 2: with the Bills defense this year. But should be a

1419
01:11:30,680 --> 01:11:34,439
Speaker 2: fun shootout and yeah, one of the you know, an

1420
01:11:34,520 --> 01:11:37,720
Speaker 2: NFL game, I don't need a single dollar on it

1421
01:11:37,800 --> 01:11:38,920
Speaker 2: to enjoy the entire thing.

1422
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:42,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's kind of what I'm getting at Niners at

1423
01:11:42,840 --> 01:11:46,479
Speaker 1: the Falcons. Falcons are five and a half point home dogs.

1424
01:11:46,720 --> 01:11:50,920
Speaker 1: The totals forty four and a half. San Francisco pretty

1425
01:11:50,920 --> 01:11:54,160
Speaker 1: banged up on defense. Nick Bosa is probably gonna sit,

1426
01:11:54,600 --> 01:11:59,719
Speaker 1: Eric Armstead still out, Kinwah is still out.

1427
01:12:01,000 --> 01:12:01,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1428
01:12:02,439 --> 01:12:04,479
Speaker 1: Yeah. So like it's weird because like I was like

1429
01:12:04,800 --> 01:12:08,400
Speaker 1: going back watching the Falcons Bucks game and I'm like

1430
01:12:08,400 --> 01:12:11,280
Speaker 1: all right, trying to say, Okay, you know, how how's

1431
01:12:11,400 --> 01:12:13,519
Speaker 1: this team gonna match up with the Niners? And I

1432
01:12:13,600 --> 01:12:16,400
Speaker 1: think the Niners might still have enough depth to survive

1433
01:12:16,439 --> 01:12:19,200
Speaker 1: it this week. I mean, you have like Ward is

1434
01:12:19,240 --> 01:12:21,920
Speaker 1: not really a massive deal because Hufonga is just gonna go.

1435
01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:23,680
Speaker 1: You know, It's still gonna be Gibson and Hufunga, and

1436
01:12:24,080 --> 01:12:26,559
Speaker 1: it's a great duo. You know, even before Ward was

1437
01:12:26,640 --> 01:12:29,400
Speaker 1: back in, uh wo, Max's been playing good enough. And

1438
01:12:29,439 --> 01:12:32,320
Speaker 1: against the Falcons you only really need to have one

1439
01:12:32,360 --> 01:12:34,479
Speaker 1: corner and put them on Drake London and you have

1440
01:12:34,560 --> 01:12:36,719
Speaker 1: Fred Warner still. You know, he can he can cover

1441
01:12:36,800 --> 01:12:39,760
Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts if they really need him to. I mean,

1442
01:12:39,880 --> 01:12:42,639
Speaker 1: the the defensive line is you know, I guess that's

1443
01:12:42,680 --> 01:12:45,080
Speaker 1: the biggest issue, but I mean it's they still have

1444
01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:49,080
Speaker 1: like like them at like fifty five percent is still

1445
01:12:49,120 --> 01:12:53,920
Speaker 1: better than probably all but eight defenses in the league.

1446
01:12:54,000 --> 01:12:56,519
Speaker 1: I would say, so, I don't know, what do you think?

1447
01:12:57,040 --> 01:13:00,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would lean forty nine Ers here. It's like,

1448
01:13:00,439 --> 01:13:02,160
Speaker 2: on the surface, it's not a good spot if you

1449
01:13:02,200 --> 01:13:03,880
Speaker 2: just say, like, oh, it's their second stary road game.

1450
01:13:04,000 --> 01:13:07,160
Speaker 2: But I mentioned this last week. I love when teams

1451
01:13:07,760 --> 01:13:10,679
Speaker 2: either go out west or go east and stay there.

1452
01:13:11,320 --> 01:13:13,400
Speaker 2: See the Rams have done this, the forty Nineers has

1453
01:13:13,400 --> 01:13:15,920
Speaker 2: done successful a lot. It's basically like you go out

1454
01:13:16,360 --> 01:13:18,920
Speaker 2: and you're not there's no distractions, you're not going home.

1455
01:13:19,439 --> 01:13:21,840
Speaker 2: You kind of just are focused on the team at

1456
01:13:21,840 --> 01:13:24,880
Speaker 2: hand and you're watching film this. You know, you're building

1457
01:13:24,880 --> 01:13:27,840
Speaker 2: a scouting report. You're also building camaraderie. You're just out

1458
01:13:27,840 --> 01:13:30,479
Speaker 2: of the team for two weeks straight. It's kind of like,

1459
01:13:30,600 --> 01:13:33,240
Speaker 2: all right, let's just take care of business here. And

1460
01:13:33,640 --> 01:13:36,720
Speaker 2: if you look Pacific, teams have played in the Pacific

1461
01:13:36,840 --> 01:13:40,000
Speaker 2: time zone that are on the East coast, playing back

1462
01:13:40,040 --> 01:13:43,360
Speaker 2: to back games, they're thirteen doesn't happen often, thirteen, four

1463
01:13:43,400 --> 01:13:46,240
Speaker 2: and two against the spread the past twenty years, the

1464
01:13:46,240 --> 01:13:48,719
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers are six and h against the spread

1465
01:13:48,720 --> 01:13:52,600
Speaker 2: in those spots. So yeah, the injuries kinda and I

1466
01:13:52,600 --> 01:13:55,960
Speaker 2: think Drake London avoided the injury report Pitt's practice today.

1467
01:13:57,080 --> 01:13:58,920
Speaker 2: I mean he hasn't been great, but Patterson is still

1468
01:13:58,920 --> 01:14:01,760
Speaker 2: out the forty nine injuries on defense, I mean, look,

1469
01:14:01,840 --> 01:14:04,960
Speaker 2: it could be without five or six starters and that

1470
01:14:05,080 --> 01:14:08,240
Speaker 2: defensive line. That's the kind of the what you really

1471
01:14:08,240 --> 01:14:10,160
Speaker 2: want to watch. Or they because if they can generate press,

1472
01:14:10,200 --> 01:14:12,640
Speaker 2: still generate pressure here. Yeah, I think it's for so

1473
01:14:12,640 --> 01:14:14,559
Speaker 2: they should be able to run the ball against this

1474
01:14:14,680 --> 01:14:18,080
Speaker 2: Falcons defense. So yeah, it's like on the surface, it

1475
01:14:18,120 --> 01:14:20,360
Speaker 2: wouldn't be superficially out. It's not a great spot, but

1476
01:14:20,400 --> 01:14:23,840
Speaker 2: I actually think it might be so injuries maybe will

1477
01:14:23,840 --> 01:14:26,000
Speaker 2: probably keep me away, but I would actually lean forty

1478
01:14:26,040 --> 01:14:28,840
Speaker 2: nine ers here against the only undefeated team against the

1479
01:14:28,840 --> 01:14:29,960
Speaker 2: spread left in the NFL.

1480
01:14:30,479 --> 01:14:31,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was kind of think of the same thing,

1481
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:34,400
Speaker 1: like if there's a if there's one favorite actually want

1482
01:14:34,439 --> 01:14:36,320
Speaker 1: to take, it would be a nice because you're still

1483
01:14:36,320 --> 01:14:38,640
Speaker 1: getting you're getting inside the six two at five and

1484
01:14:38,640 --> 01:14:40,360
Speaker 1: a half. To be honest, I think they should be

1485
01:14:40,360 --> 01:14:42,840
Speaker 1: able to throw the ball too against this Falcons team.

1486
01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:44,639
Speaker 1: I know they got some good corns on the outside,

1487
01:14:44,640 --> 01:14:48,320
Speaker 1: but it's forty nine or offense, they're gonna get killo

1488
01:14:48,360 --> 01:14:50,120
Speaker 1: bowing at some point, and I think it'd probably be

1489
01:14:50,120 --> 01:14:53,320
Speaker 1: this game. So Panthers rams. I mean, and you have

1490
01:14:53,360 --> 01:14:55,080
Speaker 1: a good article out where you kind of break down

1491
01:14:55,520 --> 01:14:58,599
Speaker 1: the trends for uh, you know when a coaching shift,

1492
01:14:58,640 --> 01:15:00,960
Speaker 1: what is it like forty eight against the spread? But

1493
01:15:01,000 --> 01:15:02,719
Speaker 1: that's a jump from the prior.

1494
01:15:03,240 --> 01:15:05,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a little bump, but you can

1495
01:15:05,080 --> 01:15:07,600
Speaker 2: have with a new coach. And I think on just

1496
01:15:07,600 --> 01:15:11,280
Speaker 2: a first game back element of surprise, maybe locker room

1497
01:15:11,479 --> 01:15:14,680
Speaker 2: morale boost. Steve Wilke's taking over as head coach. He

1498
01:15:14,760 --> 01:15:19,479
Speaker 2: kind of have his defensive cordatorant Steve Wilkes zone zone heavy,

1499
01:15:19,640 --> 01:15:22,519
Speaker 2: like he'll be the heaviest zone if he gets his way,

1500
01:15:22,720 --> 01:15:25,200
Speaker 2: he'll be the heaviest zone. He was when when he's

1501
01:15:25,200 --> 01:15:27,160
Speaker 2: dood at Scordator of Arizona, they were like eighty five

1502
01:15:27,160 --> 01:15:31,040
Speaker 2: percent zone. He'll be really heavy zone airplat he goes.

1503
01:15:31,040 --> 01:15:32,639
Speaker 2: If you're the Panthers, you wanted to go Cover two

1504
01:15:33,280 --> 01:15:36,799
Speaker 2: against Stafford, who kind of eats Cover one and three alive.

1505
01:15:36,840 --> 01:15:38,920
Speaker 2: But we'll see what they do there. J C. Horn

1506
01:15:39,200 --> 01:15:42,760
Speaker 2: is questionable, which is a huge, potential, huge loss. He's

1507
01:15:42,840 --> 01:15:46,559
Speaker 2: turning into one of the best corners in the NFL.

1508
01:15:46,600 --> 01:15:48,640
Speaker 2: If you just go off of the data this, I

1509
01:15:48,640 --> 01:15:51,240
Speaker 2: think Deebo Samuel was targeted six times last week and

1510
01:15:51,320 --> 01:15:55,240
Speaker 2: some zero catches and he's he has the lowest passer

1511
01:15:55,280 --> 01:15:58,160
Speaker 2: rating against of any qualified corner in the NFL this year.

1512
01:15:58,479 --> 01:16:00,680
Speaker 2: That's something to watch. But I mean PJ. Walker is

1513
01:16:00,680 --> 01:16:02,320
Speaker 2: going to get the start here. This is a guy

1514
01:16:02,680 --> 01:16:04,760
Speaker 2: like if you look at Baker Mayfield, you would think

1515
01:16:04,960 --> 01:16:07,920
Speaker 2: okay for a single season. You look at EPA per

1516
01:16:07,920 --> 01:16:12,080
Speaker 2: play over the since the the stat get over the

1517
01:16:12,080 --> 01:16:16,160
Speaker 2: past twenty years, the only quarterback that has a lower

1518
01:16:16,320 --> 01:16:19,040
Speaker 2: it has been worse than Baker Mayfield was JaMarcus Russell

1519
01:16:19,080 --> 01:16:22,120
Speaker 2: in two thousand and eight. But if you look from

1520
01:16:22,120 --> 01:16:26,200
Speaker 2: an EPA perspective, since PJ. Walker came in the league,

1521
01:16:26,200 --> 01:16:28,880
Speaker 2: he's been worse than what Baker Mayfield is doing. This

1522
01:16:28,960 --> 01:16:31,479
Speaker 2: year He's got two touchdowns, eight interceptions, so like he's

1523
01:16:31,520 --> 01:16:35,040
Speaker 2: even worse. So there's definitely a downgrade. You can't really

1524
01:16:35,120 --> 01:16:37,840
Speaker 2: run the ball against the Rams, but I'm not laying

1525
01:16:37,880 --> 01:16:39,840
Speaker 2: ten and a half with the Rams, and they can't

1526
01:16:39,840 --> 01:16:44,920
Speaker 2: block anybody, and the Panthers have a decent defense maybe

1527
01:16:44,920 --> 01:16:49,640
Speaker 2: though I don't know. This game is horrifying for what

1528
01:16:49,680 --> 01:16:51,479
Speaker 2: it's where teams that are under five hundred with the

1529
01:16:51,560 --> 01:16:55,519
Speaker 2: RAMS are that are favored by double digits or thirty three,

1530
01:16:55,960 --> 01:16:58,599
Speaker 2: fifty two and two against the spread over the past

1531
01:16:58,640 --> 01:17:03,280
Speaker 2: twenty years. So yeah, it seems as if, like the market,

1532
01:17:03,400 --> 01:17:05,240
Speaker 2: this could be another case where like the market is

1533
01:17:05,280 --> 01:17:06,960
Speaker 2: still too high on the Rams that they're Super Bowl

1534
01:17:07,320 --> 01:17:10,200
Speaker 2: and they need to be downgraded more. But do I

1535
01:17:10,200 --> 01:17:13,880
Speaker 2: want to back PJ. Walker on the road? No, it

1536
01:17:14,040 --> 01:17:15,840
Speaker 2: gave squirrels. They'll probably be.

1537
01:17:15,880 --> 01:17:18,080
Speaker 1: Like twenty to ten rams or something like that. Yeah,

1538
01:17:18,080 --> 01:17:20,800
Speaker 1: you know, it'll probably come down to that that hook.

1539
01:17:21,080 --> 01:17:24,320
Speaker 2: Uh version late of course, the Panthers going for two

1540
01:17:24,479 --> 01:17:29,600
Speaker 2: kind of the nine eleven No, for no reason whatsoever.

1541
01:17:29,760 --> 01:17:33,720
Speaker 1: That's that's exactly what's going to happen, all right, Baltimore

1542
01:17:33,880 --> 01:17:38,320
Speaker 1: at the Giants, I know this, You you almost want Baltimore.

1543
01:17:38,680 --> 01:17:40,679
Speaker 1: I feel like the Giants are just a dangerous team

1544
01:17:40,680 --> 01:17:43,080
Speaker 1: to bet against right now. They're just so well coached,

1545
01:17:43,080 --> 01:17:45,960
Speaker 1: they're just pulling they're just pulling game wins and covers

1546
01:17:45,960 --> 01:17:48,160
Speaker 1: out of their ass right now. With table, it doesn't

1547
01:17:48,160 --> 01:17:51,679
Speaker 1: seem like who's injured. Like it's like Daniel Jones couldn't

1548
01:17:51,760 --> 01:17:53,840
Speaker 1: run for half for the first half and then oh yeah,

1549
01:17:53,880 --> 01:17:55,760
Speaker 1: we made an adjustment. He can run. Now. It's like,

1550
01:17:55,840 --> 01:17:57,880
Speaker 1: I don't know what to think with this team, so like,

1551
01:17:57,960 --> 01:17:59,800
Speaker 1: I not really a team I want to bet against,

1552
01:17:59,800 --> 01:18:02,439
Speaker 1: but I'm what you what are you seeing with Baltimore? Yeah?

1553
01:18:02,479 --> 01:18:04,800
Speaker 2: Look, I love I love this Giants team. I was

1554
01:18:04,880 --> 01:18:09,680
Speaker 2: driving the Giants bandwagon before the season started. But I

1555
01:18:09,720 --> 01:18:12,439
Speaker 2: think it's time to fade them. Maybe not necessarily the

1556
01:18:12,439 --> 01:18:13,960
Speaker 2: rest of the year, but I think this is a

1557
01:18:13,960 --> 01:18:15,920
Speaker 2: good spot to fade them. This is a third straight week.

1558
01:18:15,920 --> 01:18:17,360
Speaker 2: I'm going to be bet in the raven which is

1559
01:18:17,439 --> 01:18:19,120
Speaker 2: shot and I only usually bet them through to four

1560
01:18:19,160 --> 01:18:22,599
Speaker 2: times a year. But look, Giants come back from London.

1561
01:18:22,680 --> 01:18:25,160
Speaker 2: Ravens just make a quick trip up ninety five. I

1562
01:18:25,200 --> 01:18:27,920
Speaker 2: think that it's not a huge deal, but it only

1563
01:18:27,960 --> 01:18:31,320
Speaker 2: can work in the Ravens favor. Here's a couple of

1564
01:18:31,400 --> 01:18:33,439
Speaker 2: reasons if you want to, you know, for your trends

1565
01:18:33,520 --> 01:18:37,280
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson on the road seventeen and nine against the spread,

1566
01:18:37,439 --> 01:18:40,800
Speaker 2: sixty six percent, covering by a touchdown per game. We

1567
01:18:40,840 --> 01:18:43,080
Speaker 2: know Jones hasn't been as great against the spread at

1568
01:18:43,080 --> 01:18:47,679
Speaker 2: homies nine and thirteen, and where it's worth, Lamar's twelve

1569
01:18:47,760 --> 01:18:49,840
Speaker 2: and four against the spread as a dog or favorite

1570
01:18:49,880 --> 01:18:52,160
Speaker 2: of less than seven on the road seventy five percent.

1571
01:18:52,760 --> 01:18:55,240
Speaker 2: But some of the things that I like about this

1572
01:18:55,360 --> 01:19:00,599
Speaker 2: matchup is the Ravens no wink Martin Dale and he

1573
01:19:00,680 --> 01:19:03,320
Speaker 2: knows them as well, which is fair, but he only

1574
01:19:03,520 --> 01:19:06,439
Speaker 2: has one speed and I think he's just gonna say, look,

1575
01:19:06,600 --> 01:19:09,240
Speaker 2: we saw work against Lamar last year. They're gonna blitz

1576
01:19:09,320 --> 01:19:12,120
Speaker 2: a ton here. And I think that's a bad idea

1577
01:19:12,240 --> 01:19:16,080
Speaker 2: and it's gonna end in disaster because that is all

1578
01:19:16,120 --> 01:19:18,519
Speaker 2: the Ravens figured out in the offseason. Mark Jackson is

1579
01:19:18,560 --> 01:19:21,160
Speaker 2: shredding the Blitz this year seven touchdowns, one interception, the

1580
01:19:21,160 --> 01:19:25,400
Speaker 2: second highest quarterback rating against the Blitz, and so I

1581
01:19:25,439 --> 01:19:29,439
Speaker 2: think that from a scheme perspective, both the familiarity is

1582
01:19:29,439 --> 01:19:31,880
Speaker 2: gonna work in the Ravens' favor because of what we've

1583
01:19:31,880 --> 01:19:33,960
Speaker 2: seen from Lamar Jackson against the Blitz and wig Martin

1584
01:19:34,040 --> 01:19:37,240
Speaker 2: Dale doesn't really change what he does on defense, like

1585
01:19:37,240 --> 01:19:39,519
Speaker 2: they're gonna blitz, and they're gonna blitz a lot. Also,

1586
01:19:39,560 --> 01:19:43,160
Speaker 2: Giants twenty fifth BBOA defending tight ends. I don't think

1587
01:19:43,240 --> 01:19:46,559
Speaker 2: they really have a great group to defend tight ends,

1588
01:19:46,600 --> 01:19:50,040
Speaker 2: which is not great against the Ravens, and the Ravens

1589
01:19:50,040 --> 01:19:54,160
Speaker 2: are getting healthier. And Ronnie Stanley last week no pressures

1590
01:19:54,200 --> 01:19:58,479
Speaker 2: on thirteen pass blocks, pass blocking snaps. Linderbound their rookie,

1591
01:19:58,520 --> 01:20:02,160
Speaker 2: by the way, fourth straight game one or fewer pressures

1592
01:20:02,160 --> 01:20:04,719
Speaker 2: at center. He's gonna be a stunt for about ten years.

1593
01:20:05,000 --> 01:20:07,160
Speaker 2: But you know, when I look at the Giants offense,

1594
01:20:07,680 --> 01:20:10,719
Speaker 2: got to give Dable a ton of credit. But Ravens,

1595
01:20:10,920 --> 01:20:12,960
Speaker 2: I assume we'll just stack the box here. They've been

1596
01:20:13,040 --> 01:20:15,120
Speaker 2: vulnerable against the run. I think Barkley will have a

1597
01:20:15,160 --> 01:20:18,439
Speaker 2: decent day. But you know, you look at Mixing last week.

1598
01:20:18,439 --> 01:20:21,000
Speaker 2: You had the safeties back, they didn't want them throwing deep.

1599
01:20:21,360 --> 01:20:24,400
Speaker 2: But you have Peters and Humphrey against this Giants wide

1600
01:20:24,439 --> 01:20:28,679
Speaker 2: receiver group. It's gonna be man on the outside, bring

1601
01:20:28,680 --> 01:20:31,799
Speaker 2: the safeties down, all hands on deck to stop Barkley.

1602
01:20:31,880 --> 01:20:34,519
Speaker 2: As I assume the game plan, and then it's like,

1603
01:20:34,840 --> 01:20:36,840
Speaker 2: how are the Giants moving the ball? It's not gonna

1604
01:20:36,840 --> 01:20:39,800
Speaker 2: be none of this soft zone. Give you up the

1605
01:20:39,880 --> 01:20:42,519
Speaker 2: run Packers nonsense. I don't think that we're gonna see

1606
01:20:42,960 --> 01:20:45,719
Speaker 2: so yeah, I mean the Giants great start. The schedule

1607
01:20:45,760 --> 01:20:47,400
Speaker 2: obviously has been great. You know, you got wins over

1608
01:20:47,439 --> 01:20:50,040
Speaker 2: the Titans by one, the Panthers by three. At home.

1609
01:20:51,600 --> 01:20:53,920
Speaker 2: Packers win was good, but we you know, the Packers

1610
01:20:53,920 --> 01:20:57,639
Speaker 2: have problems. Ravens are generally pretty good in the spot,

1611
01:20:57,640 --> 01:20:59,360
Speaker 2: and I think it's a good matchup on both sides

1612
01:20:59,360 --> 01:21:01,479
Speaker 2: of the ball than I sleep throwing the special team's

1613
01:21:01,560 --> 01:21:04,200
Speaker 2: advantage overall, although the Giants are a really good kicker,

1614
01:21:04,240 --> 01:21:07,360
Speaker 2: but just overall, I think it's like one Braven is

1615
01:21:07,360 --> 01:21:10,040
Speaker 2: obviously the number one special teams unit in the NFL.

1616
01:21:10,800 --> 01:21:13,280
Speaker 2: Try to fight the middle of the pack. So yeah,

1617
01:21:13,320 --> 01:21:15,920
Speaker 2: I think Lamar against the Blitz here, I think that's

1618
01:21:15,960 --> 01:21:17,679
Speaker 2: the key factor. And then I think that the Ravens

1619
01:21:17,680 --> 01:21:20,120
Speaker 2: can just stack the box here, trust their corners on

1620
01:21:20,160 --> 01:21:23,320
Speaker 2: the outside that are now healthy. I guess an underwhelming

1621
01:21:23,360 --> 01:21:25,479
Speaker 2: receiving group. Love what the Giants are doing here, but

1622
01:21:26,160 --> 01:21:29,240
Speaker 2: I think they come crashing back down to earth a

1623
01:21:29,240 --> 01:21:30,559
Speaker 2: little bit this week. So yeah, I like to I

1624
01:21:30,600 --> 01:21:31,320
Speaker 2: like Baltimore.

1625
01:21:32,120 --> 01:21:35,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I see what you're saying. That's a good

1626
01:21:35,240 --> 01:21:37,679
Speaker 1: point about the Blitz. I almost wonder, though, just because

1627
01:21:37,720 --> 01:21:40,519
Speaker 1: the Giants have been so well coached, if like you know,

1628
01:21:40,680 --> 01:21:43,240
Speaker 1: Dabo doesn't step in and say, hey, like you know, like,

1629
01:21:43,600 --> 01:21:46,840
Speaker 1: let's be reasonable here. You know, I know he's an

1630
01:21:46,880 --> 01:21:48,760
Speaker 1: off he's he's the offensive guy, but he is the

1631
01:21:48,760 --> 01:21:50,560
Speaker 1: head coach and did give up like play cons he

1632
01:21:50,560 --> 01:21:52,960
Speaker 1: could oversee the team. So I just still wait and

1633
01:21:53,000 --> 01:21:56,160
Speaker 1: see mode on the Giants. But let's let's go to

1634
01:21:56,200 --> 01:21:57,639
Speaker 1: Survivor and wrap it up.

1635
01:22:00,640 --> 01:22:05,960
Speaker 2: The Survivorpool pick of the week.

1636
01:22:07,880 --> 01:22:11,920
Speaker 1: All right, So unfortunately, uh, I guess did you go

1637
01:22:12,000 --> 01:22:14,160
Speaker 1: with the Jags and all of your like big weaves

1638
01:22:14,160 --> 01:22:17,240
Speaker 1: and shit? Damn ye that sucks. Man.

1639
01:22:17,439 --> 01:22:20,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm done this week. I was gonna go with

1640
01:22:20,120 --> 01:22:21,479
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers for what it's worth.

1641
01:22:22,520 --> 01:22:24,320
Speaker 1: See, I went forty nine last week.

1642
01:22:24,400 --> 01:22:25,320
Speaker 2: I went with you last week.

1643
01:22:25,320 --> 01:22:29,240
Speaker 1: I actually don't like I mean, I think just like

1644
01:22:29,400 --> 01:22:30,920
Speaker 1: this is what I was worried about the forty nineers.

1645
01:22:30,960 --> 01:22:34,200
Speaker 1: It's like it's like this team like they dropped like flies.

1646
01:22:34,200 --> 01:22:35,360
Speaker 1: So it's like I was like, all right, you know,

1647
01:22:35,439 --> 01:22:38,000
Speaker 1: might as well use them, whether healthy enough? And they

1648
01:22:38,320 --> 01:22:40,320
Speaker 1: trampled Carolina and now they're all banged down. I mean,

1649
01:22:40,760 --> 01:22:43,000
Speaker 1: we like San Francisco this week, but listen, it's a

1650
01:22:43,000 --> 01:22:44,519
Speaker 1: five and a half point spread. They could very well

1651
01:22:44,560 --> 01:22:47,519
Speaker 1: lose this game. I think I think you gotta go

1652
01:22:47,520 --> 01:22:49,360
Speaker 1: with the Rams here especially. I mean, if you use

1653
01:22:49,400 --> 01:22:51,280
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, obviously you want to go to Rams.

1654
01:22:51,280 --> 01:22:53,600
Speaker 1: But I just think PJ Walk, Like, I know the

1655
01:22:53,680 --> 01:22:57,479
Speaker 1: Rams can't block anyone, but I just think PJ Walker,

1656
01:22:57,760 --> 01:23:01,519
Speaker 1: Sean McVay coming off with a loss on a you know,

1657
01:23:01,840 --> 01:23:06,040
Speaker 1: Rams at home still got the star power, you know.

1658
01:23:06,240 --> 01:23:10,120
Speaker 1: Like I think if it was just the same Panthers

1659
01:23:10,120 --> 01:23:13,439
Speaker 1: team and now it's just Whilks, you know, changing some things,

1660
01:23:13,439 --> 01:23:15,519
Speaker 1: but like the fact that you have to like work

1661
01:23:15,520 --> 01:23:17,640
Speaker 1: in a new quarterback, I think changes the equation. It

1662
01:23:17,680 --> 01:23:19,280
Speaker 1: makes it. I think it's just going to be really

1663
01:23:19,320 --> 01:23:21,599
Speaker 1: tough for the Panthers to get a win this week.

1664
01:23:21,920 --> 01:23:23,439
Speaker 1: You know, maybe they keep it close, maybe it's like

1665
01:23:23,439 --> 01:23:27,920
Speaker 1: a thirteen to six kind of game, you know. But yeah,

1666
01:23:28,400 --> 01:23:30,639
Speaker 1: Rams for me, because I I don't know when we could

1667
01:23:30,640 --> 01:23:32,639
Speaker 1: trust them after Like you know, it's like just get

1668
01:23:32,680 --> 01:23:34,800
Speaker 1: them out of here at this point, like let's just

1669
01:23:34,880 --> 01:23:37,760
Speaker 1: use them now before like they lose every lose another

1670
01:23:37,800 --> 01:23:42,160
Speaker 1: offensive lineman. So yeah, Rams. All right, that's going to

1671
01:23:42,200 --> 01:23:45,559
Speaker 1: wrap it up for the week number six Action Network

1672
01:23:45,640 --> 01:23:48,400
Speaker 1: NFL podcast presented by Fan Duel. You can find Stucky

1673
01:23:48,439 --> 01:23:50,360
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Stucky too. You can find me at

1674
01:23:50,400 --> 01:23:52,599
Speaker 1: Chris Raybon. You can find this at those same handles

1675
01:23:53,000 --> 01:23:55,559
Speaker 1: on a free, award winning Action Network at where you

1676
01:23:55,640 --> 01:23:59,320
Speaker 1: can follow our bets or track yours. Be sure to

1677
01:23:59,360 --> 01:24:01,240
Speaker 1: check out Action network dot com for all of our

1678
01:24:01,360 --> 01:24:04,479
Speaker 1: NFL betting content and college football and all of our

1679
01:24:04,520 --> 01:24:07,160
Speaker 1: other content as well. Don't forget to tune into BBOC

1680
01:24:07,400 --> 01:24:10,400
Speaker 1: which would be out late Thursday or early Friday morning. Also,

1681
01:24:10,439 --> 01:24:12,240
Speaker 1: you can catch Sean Kurder and I with our Player

1682
01:24:12,280 --> 01:24:16,200
Speaker 1: Projections episode which is out right now on this channel.

1683
01:24:16,920 --> 01:24:20,080
Speaker 1: Until next time, Let's get this money, Gord