WEBVTT - The Impeachment Episode 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:25.116 Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show 0:00:25.156 --> 0:00:28.116 where we explored the stories behind the stories in the news. 0:00:28.556 --> 0:00:34.156 I'm Noah Feldman. Welcome to this week's episode where we 0:00:34.196 --> 0:00:36.796 talk about the republic and whether it is about to 0:00:36.836 --> 0:00:40.396 collapse entirely. We are in the midst of a genuine 0:00:40.436 --> 0:00:44.396 impeachment inquiry. This time it is not address rehearsal. Ladies 0:00:44.396 --> 0:00:47.836 and gentlemen, hold on to your hats to discuss this 0:00:48.076 --> 0:00:50.876 and many other issues. I'm thrilled to have with me 0:00:50.996 --> 0:00:54.716 Seth Burman, a former state and federal prosecutor and my 0:00:54.916 --> 0:00:58.916 spirit guide to all things criminal, no offense, Seth, and 0:00:59.116 --> 0:01:03.396 indeed to all things connected to inquiries, impeachments, and everything 0:01:03.436 --> 0:01:05.516 else we've had to deal with from the beginning of 0:01:05.556 --> 0:01:07.916 this administration on. Seth, thank you so much for being here. 0:01:08.036 --> 0:01:10.236 Thank you for having me. Now, so let's just start 0:01:10.316 --> 0:01:13.716 in the middle of it, Seth. The impeachment inquiry. What 0:01:13.796 --> 0:01:15.716 do you think the whistle blower complained? How do we 0:01:15.796 --> 0:01:18.996 get here? The whistle blower complaint is absolutely fascinating, because, 0:01:18.996 --> 0:01:22.236 first of all, the reality is the whistleblower didn't really 0:01:22.276 --> 0:01:24.276 tell us all that much. That if you weren't paying 0:01:24.276 --> 0:01:26.876 attention you didn't already know. It was well known that 0:01:26.916 --> 0:01:29.316 Giuliani was running around. He was advertising that he was 0:01:29.356 --> 0:01:32.236 running around in Ukraine and trying to get the Ukrainian 0:01:32.276 --> 0:01:35.396 government to dig up dirt on Biden. It was reasonably 0:01:35.436 --> 0:01:37.596 clear that the President was involved in that, because Giuliani 0:01:37.636 --> 0:01:40.836 had said things like that over the time. But what 0:01:40.956 --> 0:01:44.156 the whistleblower complaints seems to have done is number one 0:01:44.356 --> 0:01:47.916 brought tremendous attention to it, and number two was point 0:01:47.996 --> 0:01:51.596 out a way in which the veil of Giuliani doing 0:01:51.596 --> 0:01:55.316 it as the president's lawyer or the president's individual lawyer, 0:01:55.596 --> 0:01:58.516 as opposed to doing it as part of his official duties, 0:01:58.636 --> 0:02:01.196 which he has none, because Rudy Giuliani has no official 0:02:01.236 --> 0:02:03.756 duties in the US government. Correct. And that created just 0:02:04.116 --> 0:02:06.236 enough of a cover that I think it was hard 0:02:06.276 --> 0:02:08.516 for anyone to know what to do about it. But 0:02:08.596 --> 0:02:11.036 then once the call or the fact of the call 0:02:11.156 --> 0:02:13.196 was revealed in the whistleblower complaint and the phone call 0:02:13.356 --> 0:02:17.436 between President Trump and President the Lodimir Zelenski of Ukraine, 0:02:17.476 --> 0:02:20.916 that's exactly right. And once that call was was revealed, 0:02:21.236 --> 0:02:23.236 and then the call itself or at least what we 0:02:23.316 --> 0:02:26.236 think is a transcript of the call, semi quasi kind 0:02:26.276 --> 0:02:29.956 of transcript exactly that semi quasi transcript seemed to show 0:02:29.996 --> 0:02:33.676 Trump doing exactly the core of what he's not supposed 0:02:33.676 --> 0:02:36.636 to be doing, the core abuse of power, which is 0:02:36.716 --> 0:02:39.236 essentially using the power of the US government for his 0:02:39.316 --> 0:02:42.196 own personal goals. To me, one of the takeaways from 0:02:42.236 --> 0:02:44.876 this is, if you want to be in the president 0:02:44.916 --> 0:02:46.876 and you want to get away with being the president 0:02:46.876 --> 0:02:48.156 and doing the stuff you want to do, it might 0:02:48.156 --> 0:02:50.236 be fine to be investigated by the former head of 0:02:50.236 --> 0:02:52.756 the FBI, Bob Mueller, but you really don't want to 0:02:52.756 --> 0:02:55.476 be investigated by some CIA desk officer who knows how 0:02:55.476 --> 0:02:58.036 to write a five page memo. It certainly seems that way. 0:02:58.036 --> 0:03:00.636 I mean, the five page memo did so much more 0:03:00.756 --> 0:03:04.836 damage to the president than Mueller's report. And it's more 0:03:04.836 --> 0:03:08.156 happened in five pages of the whistle blower complaint than 0:03:08.196 --> 0:03:10.956 in five hundred of Muller reports. Right, And it's not 0:03:10.996 --> 0:03:12.516 clear to me how much of that is because of 0:03:12.556 --> 0:03:14.876 the sort of boiling of the frog thing that the 0:03:14.876 --> 0:03:17.236 problem with Mueller is that it took so long that 0:03:17.356 --> 0:03:19.876 by the time the report was done. We'd all gotten 0:03:19.956 --> 0:03:21.396 used to all the facts in it. We were the 0:03:21.436 --> 0:03:23.516 frog in the water and it got warmer and warmer, 0:03:23.556 --> 0:03:26.116 and we didn't notice we were boiling, right, And now 0:03:26.236 --> 0:03:27.916 this all came at once. So now it's like you 0:03:27.996 --> 0:03:29.836 suddenly we're thrown into the boiling water. And there's no 0:03:29.876 --> 0:03:32.716 avoiding the fact that this was outrageous. This is the 0:03:32.756 --> 0:03:38.236 core outrageous, not the kind of what Republicans started calling 0:03:38.236 --> 0:03:40.396 the process crimes. So I want to talk about the 0:03:40.716 --> 0:03:43.756 phone call and the outrage because there are at least 0:03:43.796 --> 0:03:45.836 two elements of the phone call, and I'm really interested 0:03:45.876 --> 0:03:47.996 in maybe it's possible to untangle them a little bit. 0:03:48.036 --> 0:03:49.556 Because we're sitting here, we have a little time, we 0:03:49.596 --> 0:03:53.276 can analyze it. So, on the one hand, Trump is 0:03:53.316 --> 0:03:57.996 asking Zelenski to spur an investigation of Joe Biden and 0:03:58.076 --> 0:04:01.356 his son, and that's really clear to me. It's really 0:04:01.356 --> 0:04:03.836 clear that that's an abuse of the president's power in 0:04:03.916 --> 0:04:08.276 office for personal gain, because there's no national security interest 0:04:08.676 --> 0:04:11.596 or national interest of any kind, even plausibly in the 0:04:11.636 --> 0:04:15.236 investigation of Joe and Hunter Biden. And that's also the 0:04:15.236 --> 0:04:17.516 part that Rudy Giuliani seems to have been most directly 0:04:17.556 --> 0:04:20.596 involved in correct On the other hand, Trump is also 0:04:20.676 --> 0:04:23.556 asking on that call. In fact, he asks first for 0:04:23.756 --> 0:04:26.996 Zelenski's help in investigating what's basically a crazy right wing 0:04:27.116 --> 0:04:33.756 conspiracy theory involving the company that first, the security company 0:04:33.796 --> 0:04:38.196 that first looked at the Democratic National Committees hacks right, CrowdStrike, CrowdStrike, 0:04:38.476 --> 0:04:40.356 What the hell is he doing and what does it 0:04:40.436 --> 0:04:42.516 have to do with Ukraine, at least in Trump's mind. 0:04:43.236 --> 0:04:47.116 So it is always very hard to untangle what people 0:04:47.196 --> 0:04:50.596 are thinking about these crazy right wing conspiracy theories, right, 0:04:50.716 --> 0:04:54.036 do Trump and Giuliani actually think it's true or are 0:04:54.076 --> 0:04:56.236 they just trying to? But what's even the thing that 0:04:56.236 --> 0:04:58.076 they're supposed that we're supposed to think, or so they 0:04:58.116 --> 0:04:59.836 want us to think. As I understand it, what we're 0:04:59.836 --> 0:05:02.996 supposed to think is that CrowdStrike was started by someone 0:05:03.076 --> 0:05:05.516 who was born in Russia but is an American citizen. 0:05:06.116 --> 0:05:12.076 That person is connected to a foundation, someone donated to 0:05:12.116 --> 0:05:15.756 the foundation, or a wealthy Ukrainian donated to that foundation, 0:05:16.316 --> 0:05:20.716 and based on that string of evidence, the conspiracy theory 0:05:20.836 --> 0:05:24.756 is that CrowdStrike made up the idea that Russians hacked 0:05:24.796 --> 0:05:27.956 into the DNC servers, and that in fact, it was 0:05:28.036 --> 0:05:30.836 the Ukrainians who are doing it essentially as a false 0:05:30.876 --> 0:05:34.076 flag operation to help Hillary in some way, though it's 0:05:34.076 --> 0:05:37.076 not totally clear how or maybe hurt the Russians, and 0:05:37.156 --> 0:05:39.316 certainly to hurt the Russians, right, and that this is 0:05:39.316 --> 0:05:42.396 a kind of made in Moscow conspiracy theory. It would 0:05:42.436 --> 0:05:46.756 seem that way. Yeah, Okay, So that if it were true, 0:05:47.036 --> 0:05:49.116 and that's an enormous if that we have to like 0:05:49.116 --> 0:05:51.036 put up there in huge bold letters because obviously it's 0:05:51.036 --> 0:05:54.236 not true. But if it were true, would the United 0:05:54.276 --> 0:05:57.916 States have a genuine, legitimate interest in investigating that? As 0:05:57.996 --> 0:06:01.276 part of the overall question that Trump says he's asked 0:06:01.316 --> 0:06:05.316 Attorney General William bar to investigate, namely, if he never 0:06:05.476 --> 0:06:07.956 colluded with the Russians, if there's no evidence that eclid 0:06:07.996 --> 0:06:10.676 with the Russians, I did the world think? So, which 0:06:10.716 --> 0:06:13.076 Trump thinks deserves to be investigated? Does that question deserve 0:06:13.116 --> 0:06:17.036 to be investigated? I think the answer to that is no. 0:06:17.756 --> 0:06:22.156 But it's a lot it's a lot closer, not so 0:06:22.236 --> 0:06:23.916 much as to whether or not it should be investigated, 0:06:23.916 --> 0:06:26.476 because of course it's absurd. So he's asking the Ukrainians 0:06:26.476 --> 0:06:29.596 to investigate something, and I think we should be not 0:06:29.756 --> 0:06:32.156 quick to use the president's word. It's not clear to 0:06:32.156 --> 0:06:34.636 me that he really means investigate. When he says investigate, 0:06:34.716 --> 0:06:39.276 he means find dirt on. Investigate implies that some proper 0:06:39.716 --> 0:06:41.876 thing is going to happen, some search for the truth. 0:06:42.036 --> 0:06:44.516 I don't actually think the President was asking them to 0:06:44.516 --> 0:06:47.116 search for the truth of this. He was saying, find 0:06:47.156 --> 0:06:49.956 me evidence that suggests the thing I want to find, 0:06:50.036 --> 0:06:53.196 because that's a really important and fascinating things. If that's right, 0:06:53.236 --> 0:06:55.996 then they are really at least two things wrong with 0:06:56.196 --> 0:06:59.036 the phone call with Zelenski. One the request to find 0:06:59.036 --> 0:07:02.156 dirt on Biden, and two just the request at all 0:07:02.236 --> 0:07:05.836 and the pressure to find evidence to support this conspiracy 0:07:05.876 --> 0:07:08.916 theory or to make up evidence to support this conspiracy theory. 0:07:08.876 --> 0:07:12.556 Because that part actually involves the attorney general. And although 0:07:12.556 --> 0:07:14.876 the Attorney General denies he knew anything, I don't know 0:07:14.956 --> 0:07:16.916 it's plausible or not, but he denies he knew anything 0:07:16.956 --> 0:07:20.476 about the Biden investigation, he can't deny that he knows 0:07:20.516 --> 0:07:23.156 about this other investigation because he says he's performing it. 0:07:23.796 --> 0:07:25.796 And this is relevant to an issue that I'm kind 0:07:25.796 --> 0:07:27.716 of fascinated by, which I sort of think is going 0:07:27.756 --> 0:07:32.116 to become significant in these impeachment inquiry proceedings eventually. And 0:07:32.156 --> 0:07:35.996 that is just how careful, legal and rational as the 0:07:36.036 --> 0:07:38.876 Attorney General of the United States has he as he's 0:07:38.876 --> 0:07:41.316 done so far, been very careful to act in a 0:07:41.356 --> 0:07:44.156 way that a reasonable lawyer could always defend in court, 0:07:44.596 --> 0:07:48.716 or under Trump's sort of consistent pressure that he cross 0:07:48.796 --> 0:07:53.436 over into wacko land by asking various countries to investigate 0:07:53.476 --> 0:07:56.396 this conspiracy theory. I'm actually going to expand that idea 0:07:56.476 --> 0:07:58.436 even further because I think that the same question could 0:07:58.476 --> 0:08:00.916 essentially be asked in a slightly different way of the 0:08:00.956 --> 0:08:06.036 Secretary of State, right, who essentially also got involved in this. 0:08:06.596 --> 0:08:10.876 I suspect what's going on is that as the presidency 0:08:10.996 --> 0:08:14.956 now revolves around Trump's crazy whim of the moment, right, 0:08:15.036 --> 0:08:19.196 every senior official is out there trying to tamp down 0:08:19.236 --> 0:08:22.516 whatever that is, and they make certain compromises necessary to 0:08:22.556 --> 0:08:24.916 do so, which is every so often they just give 0:08:24.956 --> 0:08:27.836 into the whim. They go investigate the latest crazy idea, 0:08:27.876 --> 0:08:31.276 whatever it is. Probably they convince themselves that that's just 0:08:31.316 --> 0:08:33.516 a side thing they're doing. But you do wonder whether 0:08:33.596 --> 0:08:37.956 or not does bar actually believe this crazy conspiracy theory also, 0:08:38.156 --> 0:08:40.276 or is he making a big show of investigating it 0:08:40.556 --> 0:08:43.276 so as to keep the President happy on the theory 0:08:43.316 --> 0:08:47.116 that there's nothing illegal or unconstitutional about the Department of 0:08:47.156 --> 0:08:50.996 Justice engaging in a pointless investigation. The President says, investigate. 0:08:51.436 --> 0:08:54.316 It's perfectly permissible to investigate as long as you don't 0:08:54.316 --> 0:08:56.796 harm anybody. And if it's a crazy thing, like the 0:08:56.836 --> 0:08:59.036 presidents would like to us to investigate whether the UFOs 0:08:59.116 --> 0:09:01.796 landed in Roswell, so you investigate whe the UFOs landed 0:09:01.796 --> 0:09:04.316 and Roswell, no harm, no foul. That would be the 0:09:04.396 --> 0:09:06.876 kind of if we had bar here and truly off 0:09:06.916 --> 0:09:09.076 the record, maybe that's what he would say about the investigation. 0:09:09.876 --> 0:09:12.236 I assume that's what Baro two you're saying, correct. I 0:09:12.276 --> 0:09:14.716 think that's probably what Barr would say. It is also 0:09:14.756 --> 0:09:17.236 possible that Barr actually believes this, and I think that's 0:09:17.276 --> 0:09:19.916 where it becomes a little bit hard to untangle what's 0:09:19.956 --> 0:09:24.596 going on. Have some of the folks in the administration 0:09:24.836 --> 0:09:27.676 reached the point of imbibing so much right wing news 0:09:27.716 --> 0:09:30.316 that they've come around to believing theories that, on their 0:09:30.356 --> 0:09:32.876 face are just absurd. So let's turn out to the 0:09:32.876 --> 0:09:35.436 actual phone call, and I want to begin with this 0:09:35.516 --> 0:09:39.396 question of whether there was just pressure, which is obvious 0:09:39.396 --> 0:09:41.396 on the face of the phone call, or whether there 0:09:41.476 --> 0:09:44.036 was some kind of a quid pro quo associated with 0:09:44.076 --> 0:09:46.036 the fact that just a few days before the call, 0:09:46.276 --> 0:09:49.276 the President had suspended three hundred ninety one million dollars 0:09:49.436 --> 0:09:52.116 of military aid to Ukraine. He did it without telling 0:09:52.196 --> 0:09:55.036 anyone the reason within we know from the whistleblower complaint 0:09:55.076 --> 0:09:57.436 within the National Security Council. At the meetings where it 0:09:57.436 --> 0:09:59.716 was announced, people wondered why the President was doing this, 0:09:59.876 --> 0:10:01.836 and there was no answer. They just were told the 0:10:01.876 --> 0:10:04.276 President wants to do that. So that's the setup. Then 0:10:04.356 --> 0:10:08.196 the President comes into the call and he asks Zelenski 0:10:08.276 --> 0:10:12.836 for quote a favor, and then Zelenski brings up Giuliani 0:10:12.876 --> 0:10:16.196 immediately before the President brings up Juliani, and then the 0:10:16.196 --> 0:10:18.316 President says, oh, and another thing and talks about the 0:10:18.356 --> 0:10:22.836 Biden matter. So, first of all, do you think there 0:10:22.916 --> 0:10:25.556 was a quid pro quo here? Put on your prosecutor's hat, 0:10:25.836 --> 0:10:29.756 Was there, in fact some exchange between Trump and Zelenski 0:10:29.836 --> 0:10:34.116 being proposed? I think the answer is clearly yes, for 0:10:34.156 --> 0:10:38.076 anyone who's looking at the call fairly. I'll come back 0:10:38.116 --> 0:10:40.956 to why I think people have the other interpretation. But 0:10:41.436 --> 0:10:44.316 the quid pro quo is I think there may actually 0:10:44.316 --> 0:10:46.716 be two quid pro quos in the call. The first 0:10:46.756 --> 0:10:49.836 one is about the money, or at least the supply 0:10:49.956 --> 0:10:54.076 of military aid, the fact that Trump had suspended the aid. 0:10:54.476 --> 0:10:57.396 We don't yet know whether or not the Ukrainians knew that. 0:10:58.516 --> 0:11:00.756 They certainly knew that they hadn't yet gotten it, and 0:11:00.796 --> 0:11:02.756 they knew that it was held up. But whether or 0:11:02.796 --> 0:11:04.916 not they understood that this call was a way to 0:11:04.956 --> 0:11:06.876 break that through, we don't know because it's not on 0:11:06.916 --> 0:11:08.756 the call. So let's put that aside for the moment. 0:11:08.796 --> 0:11:11.036 Although and I just adds MS maybe it's just a footnote. 0:11:11.076 --> 0:11:13.796 We know from the whistleplower complaint that after the call, 0:11:14.276 --> 0:11:19.756 the Ukrainian President website actually said something along the lines 0:11:19.796 --> 0:11:23.396 of we had a good call with the president. Investigations 0:11:23.396 --> 0:11:25.916 will get started that will remove the obstacles to our 0:11:25.956 --> 0:11:28.316 good relationship. So we do know that within a few 0:11:28.316 --> 0:11:30.596 moments after the call they were interpreting it this way. 0:11:30.596 --> 0:11:31.676 But go back to your point, Well, we know they 0:11:31.676 --> 0:11:34.756 were interpreting about the good relationship. And I think that's 0:11:34.796 --> 0:11:37.116 where the other interpretation will get to in a minute 0:11:37.196 --> 0:11:40.516 comes from. The Ukrainian president didn't say and we're expecting 0:11:40.516 --> 0:11:43.556 to get our money soon, right, He said something that 0:11:43.796 --> 0:11:46.036 no doubt was code for that, but he didn't actually 0:11:46.116 --> 0:11:48.116 say that. He said that there had been something that 0:11:48.196 --> 0:11:51.076 was obstructing the relationship, and that was obviously the freezing 0:11:51.116 --> 0:11:54.116 of the money. Anyway, go on. So I think that 0:11:54.276 --> 0:11:56.396 is the broader context. But focus just for a moment 0:11:56.396 --> 0:11:59.836 on the call itself and forget the broader context, which 0:11:59.876 --> 0:12:01.356 isn't the right thing to do, but at least it's 0:12:01.356 --> 0:12:04.796 a place to start on the call itself. The comment 0:12:04.836 --> 0:12:06.676 about I need you to do me a favor, and 0:12:06.996 --> 0:12:11.356 look at Joe Biden and his son comes immediately after, 0:12:11.956 --> 0:12:17.476 literally like the sentence after Zelenski asks for anti tank 0:12:17.516 --> 0:12:21.436 weapons and Trump says, okay, I need you to do 0:12:21.476 --> 0:12:23.596 me a favor. So in that sense, there was a 0:12:23.676 --> 0:12:26.796 literal ask the response to which is I need you 0:12:26.836 --> 0:12:29.356 to do me a favor. So it is definitely true 0:12:29.396 --> 0:12:32.796 that nobody used the words unless you do me this favor, 0:12:32.836 --> 0:12:35.076 I will not give you what I asked for. But 0:12:35.196 --> 0:12:38.396 in the real world. Literally, nobody talks that way. You 0:12:38.436 --> 0:12:42.196 don't have to start espousing that this is a moblike 0:12:42.276 --> 0:12:46.956 conversation to understand that people often do exchanges without actually 0:12:46.996 --> 0:12:50.236 spelling out the if versus. You know, if then part 0:12:50.276 --> 0:12:52.196 of the conversation. Right, I point my gun at you. 0:12:52.276 --> 0:12:54.396 I don't have to say your money or your life. 0:12:54.516 --> 0:12:56.076 I expect that you're going to give me your wallet. 0:12:56.276 --> 0:12:59.756 Would you, as a prosecutor, have gone into court to 0:12:59.876 --> 0:13:03.876 prosecute a public corruption case with a phone call tape 0:13:03.876 --> 0:13:07.236 of a phone call with about as much connection to 0:13:07.276 --> 0:13:11.036 the quidd pro quo as this phone call has. I 0:13:11.076 --> 0:13:14.716 think that there's no question. Yes, everyone, every prosecutor I 0:13:14.756 --> 0:13:18.676 know would do that. The connection between the ask and 0:13:18.756 --> 0:13:22.076 the other ask, right, they ask for the for the weapons, 0:13:22.156 --> 0:13:27.316 and the quote yes are right there. Usually these cases 0:13:27.316 --> 0:13:31.356 fall apart because there's much less connection between the quid 0:13:31.356 --> 0:13:34.076 and the quo then there is on this call. Correct, right, 0:13:34.236 --> 0:13:35.636 This is one you you'd go in as a prosecutor. 0:13:35.676 --> 0:13:37.276 You wouldn't just go into the court. You think you'd 0:13:37.276 --> 0:13:39.476 be like, I'm going to win this one knowing that 0:13:39.516 --> 0:13:41.596 I think you would walk into court and say this 0:13:41.636 --> 0:13:44.436 tape has a very clear quid pro quo on it. Wow, 0:13:44.516 --> 0:13:46.836 he asked for one thing, and his response is you 0:13:46.916 --> 0:13:50.036 need to do this instead, and is that why? So, 0:13:50.156 --> 0:13:53.396 just to give a word of background to listeners. When 0:13:53.636 --> 0:13:57.436 the complaint arose and we heard about it, I immediately 0:13:57.636 --> 0:13:59.596 grabbed my phone and I texted you immediately, and I said, 0:13:59.676 --> 0:14:02.476 what's the crime? And you immediately texted me back public corruption. 0:14:02.636 --> 0:14:04.476 In fact, you just use a number you wrote back 0:14:04.476 --> 0:14:06.716 section eight seventy two. So I'm embarrassed to say I 0:14:06.716 --> 0:14:08.356 had to look that up to that was public corruption? 0:14:08.476 --> 0:14:09.796 And is that why you thought it was a public 0:14:09.796 --> 0:14:13.076 corruption right away? Because it resembled those kinds of cases. Absolutely, 0:14:13.076 --> 0:14:15.916 it's the Normally these kinds of cases come up where 0:14:15.956 --> 0:14:18.916 Congressman says, oh, we'd like to help you. I'd love 0:14:18.916 --> 0:14:20.396 to be able to help you. I also need to 0:14:20.396 --> 0:14:24.796 get reelected. It's much vaguer. Usually you don't say I 0:14:24.836 --> 0:14:27.076 need your vote on this bill, all right, I need 0:14:27.116 --> 0:14:29.316 you to do me a favor. Okay, So now talk 0:14:29.356 --> 0:14:33.156 about the other interpretation, which is presentally the interpretation. Before 0:14:33.196 --> 0:14:35.036 I get to that, there's one other quid pro quo. 0:14:35.076 --> 0:14:36.476 I think that's in the call that's gotten a lot 0:14:36.556 --> 0:14:38.756 less attention, which is at the very end of the 0:14:38.796 --> 0:14:42.356 call again they're talking about the favor, and Zelenski says, 0:14:42.476 --> 0:14:45.316 I'd really like to come visit the White House, which 0:14:45.396 --> 0:14:48.396 is its own kind of favor that the president could grant. 0:14:48.716 --> 0:14:51.956 It is extremely important to the Ukraine president to be 0:14:52.076 --> 0:14:54.516 seen as being a close ally of the president, and 0:14:54.556 --> 0:14:56.636 they had been trying to get a meeting with the 0:14:56.676 --> 0:14:59.356 president in the White House for a while. And Trump's 0:14:59.396 --> 0:15:03.516 response is something like, all right, you know, We'll look 0:15:03.516 --> 0:15:06.116 at that. And it's clear that he's dangling yet another 0:15:06.156 --> 0:15:08.036 favor in front of him, not just the money and 0:15:08.116 --> 0:15:11.236 not just the weapon, but also this other favor of 0:15:11.276 --> 0:15:14.196 the White House visit. Now, if that were all that 0:15:14.316 --> 0:15:16.596 was there, I think it's a touch mushier because the 0:15:16.596 --> 0:15:19.516 White House visit is arguably not an official act of 0:15:19.556 --> 0:15:22.556 the president, although I think I think it is. Yeah, yeah, 0:15:23.596 --> 0:15:26.476 but that's also in there and really hasn't gotten I 0:15:26.476 --> 0:15:29.116 think the attention it probably deserves. And you know, it's 0:15:29.116 --> 0:15:31.036 important to note in this context before we turn to 0:15:31.116 --> 0:15:37.236 the alternative viewpoint, that this kind of dangling and pressure 0:15:37.716 --> 0:15:41.236 is completely normal for a president if he's not seeking 0:15:41.356 --> 0:15:44.796 personal gain for his own political reelection, right. I mean, 0:15:44.956 --> 0:15:47.276 this is what governments due to each other all the time. Presumably, 0:15:47.276 --> 0:15:49.556 if we had a hundred tapes of one hundred phone 0:15:49.556 --> 0:15:52.636 calls by American presidents to foreign officials, maybe it's more 0:15:52.676 --> 0:15:56.516 polite and more subtle. But we're always trading and making 0:15:56.516 --> 0:15:59.036 demands and pressuring them to do stuff. It's just supposed 0:15:59.036 --> 0:16:01.596 to be stuff in the national interest, not for the 0:16:01.636 --> 0:16:04.316 personal gain of the president. Correct. And that's almost certainly 0:16:04.316 --> 0:16:06.756 what Joe Biden had actually done here, which is that 0:16:06.836 --> 0:16:10.956 Biden also told the Ukrainians that they couldn't get American 0:16:10.996 --> 0:16:15.236 money unless they dealt with corruption. It appears, by all 0:16:15.276 --> 0:16:18.676 accounts of what happened back then, that Biden and virtually 0:16:18.716 --> 0:16:22.276 every other Western government was pressuring for the firing of 0:16:22.316 --> 0:16:25.396 a prosecutor who was famously corrupt and who was not 0:16:25.476 --> 0:16:28.276 in fact investigating Hunter Biden or anyone else. And we're 0:16:28.316 --> 0:16:31.036 going to come to him later. This is the prosecutor Lutzenko, 0:16:31.156 --> 0:16:33.436 who is going to be a non trivial player. He's 0:16:33.876 --> 0:16:35.396 not yet a household name, but the guy's on the 0:16:35.516 --> 0:16:38.236 edge of becoming a household name. Is this inquiry proceeds, 0:16:38.276 --> 0:16:40.356 But we're going to come to him in a little while. So, okay, 0:16:40.516 --> 0:16:43.596 with all that build up, let's imagine now you know 0:16:43.796 --> 0:16:46.196 you were a prosecutor. Now you defend people for a living, 0:16:46.636 --> 0:16:49.876 alleged criminals. President calls you and says, take the case 0:16:49.876 --> 0:16:51.796 and leave it aside. Whether you would take the case, 0:16:51.916 --> 0:16:54.356 imagine you've taken the case. What's the defense that you 0:16:54.396 --> 0:16:56.516 would raise for the president? What's the interpretation you would 0:16:56.516 --> 0:16:58.196 offer to get him off the hook here? Well, I'm 0:16:58.196 --> 0:17:00.436 going to answer that a slightly different way. The interpretation 0:17:00.476 --> 0:17:02.756 that Republicans have been offering. I'm not sure it's the 0:17:02.756 --> 0:17:05.116 one I would offer, but that they have been offering 0:17:05.236 --> 0:17:07.876 is that, well, there's no literal quid pro quo when 0:17:07.876 --> 0:17:11.596 you look in this conversation. Never once does someone say 0:17:12.116 --> 0:17:14.836 if then that's a bad defense because in court those 0:17:14.836 --> 0:17:16.996 defenses fail. I think that's a bad defense because it 0:17:17.036 --> 0:17:21.556 will fail. Yes, But what is clever about it, I guess, 0:17:21.756 --> 0:17:24.916 is that ultimately this is a political not a legal argument, 0:17:25.356 --> 0:17:29.356 and it sort of has the veneer of believability to it. 0:17:29.636 --> 0:17:33.436 What's I think plausible deniability? Sort of, Yeah, it's somewhat plausible. 0:17:33.476 --> 0:17:36.196 It sounds legalistic, right, And they're going down the road 0:17:36.276 --> 0:17:38.996 of well, if this isn't a crime, then you can't impeach, 0:17:39.076 --> 0:17:41.796 which is also not true. Also not true, but but 0:17:41.916 --> 0:17:44.916 something that is probably their best argument here. What would 0:17:44.916 --> 0:17:46.396 you do if it were up to you, if you 0:17:46.716 --> 0:17:50.276 could design the defense from scratch, I think you'd want 0:17:50.356 --> 0:17:53.796 to start going down the path of this was a 0:17:53.836 --> 0:17:57.316 misunderstanding and that's not what he meant. The problem here 0:17:57.356 --> 0:17:58.836 is that the President has made a whole bunch of 0:17:58.836 --> 0:18:01.436 other statements that support the idea that this is in 0:18:01.516 --> 0:18:04.076 fact what he meant, and Giuliani is running around making 0:18:04.076 --> 0:18:05.956 a whole bunch of statements that also make it clear 0:18:06.116 --> 0:18:08.836 this is what he meant. So they're a little far 0:18:08.876 --> 0:18:12.716 down that road to try to reframe what this conversation 0:18:12.836 --> 0:18:15.756 was about. I had thought that one thing they could 0:18:15.756 --> 0:18:18.396 try to say about this misunderstanding, and maybe this is 0:18:18.396 --> 0:18:20.236 a little bit too inside the weeds of the phone 0:18:20.276 --> 0:18:24.156 call is that all Trump intended to do in the 0:18:24.196 --> 0:18:28.516 call was to bring up the investigation of CrowdStrike, and 0:18:28.596 --> 0:18:32.396 he never intended to bring up the Hunter Biden investigation. 0:18:32.756 --> 0:18:35.836 And he only did because when he brought up the CrowdStrike, 0:18:35.916 --> 0:18:37.516 which is the thing that he brings up right after 0:18:37.556 --> 0:18:42.436 the javelin missiles are mentioned. Zelenski then misunderstood and immediately 0:18:42.516 --> 0:18:45.676 brought up Juliani, who was primarily working on the Biden thing, 0:18:45.996 --> 0:18:48.396 and then Trump kind of went with it. I mean, 0:18:48.396 --> 0:18:50.716 that may not be a great defense that I wasn't 0:18:50.716 --> 0:18:52.796 going to commit a crime, but then he offered me 0:18:52.796 --> 0:18:54.836 the opportunity, because if you think about it, in the 0:18:54.956 --> 0:18:59.796 call with the Australian Leader which has come up subsequently, 0:19:00.196 --> 0:19:03.396 it seems like they only talked about investigation of the 0:19:03.396 --> 0:19:07.156 twenty sixteen collusion investigation. They didn't talk about Biden, which 0:19:07.156 --> 0:19:08.876 I guess is partly because Biden did everything to do 0:19:08.876 --> 0:19:11.796 with US Rail. So the problem I have with that 0:19:11.916 --> 0:19:14.996 defense is that whether or not he intended to bring 0:19:15.076 --> 0:19:17.996 up the Giuliani thing, the core problem with having brought 0:19:18.076 --> 0:19:20.476 up the Giuliani thing is that it blew apart the 0:19:20.556 --> 0:19:23.916 plausible deniability that they sort of had about what Giuliani 0:19:24.036 --> 0:19:27.556 was doing, which is that Giuliani was freelancing. Hearing suddenly 0:19:27.596 --> 0:19:30.396 that the President one hundred percent knows what Giuliani is 0:19:30.436 --> 0:19:34.556 doing and is telling Zelenski to follow it is actually 0:19:34.636 --> 0:19:36.596 the worst possible thing he could say, whether it was 0:19:36.636 --> 0:19:41.236 on purpose or not, because It essentially brings Giuliani's activities 0:19:41.276 --> 0:19:44.716 and numerous statements into the picture and makes it almost 0:19:44.756 --> 0:19:47.196 impossible to deny that he was doing it at the 0:19:47.236 --> 0:19:50.156 direction of the president. It's a fantastically good point, and 0:19:50.276 --> 0:19:51.796 it reminds me of something that I wanted to ask 0:19:51.836 --> 0:19:55.876 you about about Giuliani. So I had the intuition somewhere 0:19:55.876 --> 0:19:58.636 over the last few months that Rudy Giuliani had become 0:19:58.716 --> 0:20:02.196 Donald Trump's new Michael Cohen. Like when he was just 0:20:02.236 --> 0:20:05.396 a the Trump organization, not the president, Donald Trump used 0:20:05.436 --> 0:20:08.796 Michael Cohen as his quote unquote lawyer. We now know 0:20:08.876 --> 0:20:11.036 that a lot of what they did wasn't exactly legal, 0:20:11.436 --> 0:20:14.116 but used Michael Cohen to be his fixer, to go 0:20:14.156 --> 0:20:16.276 around doing the stuff that he didn't want to have 0:20:16.436 --> 0:20:19.556 his hands on himself. And then he lost Michael Cohen 0:20:19.596 --> 0:20:23.836 after Cohen was convicted of a crime, and he needed 0:20:23.876 --> 0:20:26.116 someone to play this role, and it's like Giuliani stepped 0:20:26.116 --> 0:20:28.236 into the role. So first, I want to know, do 0:20:28.276 --> 0:20:31.436 you think that analogy makes some sense here? And second, 0:20:31.636 --> 0:20:35.116 is it different insofar as by owning all what Giuliani 0:20:35.156 --> 0:20:37.676 has done, Trump has broken the benefit of using your 0:20:37.756 --> 0:20:39.836 lawyer to go around and do your dirty work for you. 0:20:41.476 --> 0:20:44.156 I think there's a lot to that analogy. So I 0:20:44.236 --> 0:20:47.476 like that. I think that yes, he has broken it, 0:20:47.516 --> 0:20:49.876 and he's actually broken it in two ways. One has 0:20:49.876 --> 0:20:52.596 nothing to do with Giuliani being a lawyer. Right, Every 0:20:52.636 --> 0:20:55.916 politician has someone whose job is to some extend or 0:20:55.916 --> 0:21:00.076 another smooth things over. Most politicians, I think, are smart 0:21:00.196 --> 0:21:02.796 enough to know that they and that person should have 0:21:02.876 --> 0:21:06.836 a certain distance between them so that they can not 0:21:06.956 --> 0:21:09.636 just plausibly deny, but actually be able to that they 0:21:09.676 --> 0:21:13.556 know what that person did. Trump doesn't operate that way, right. 0:21:13.556 --> 0:21:16.276 He doesn't have that level of subtlety even to be 0:21:16.316 --> 0:21:18.356 able to say the sort of you know, who will 0:21:18.436 --> 0:21:20.556 rid me of this troublesome priest and then let someone 0:21:20.596 --> 0:21:23.276 do it without actually ordering someone to do it. I 0:21:23.276 --> 0:21:25.556 feel confident that Trump would probably just order someone to 0:21:25.556 --> 0:21:28.396 get rid of the troublesome priest, right He's instead of saying, 0:21:28.436 --> 0:21:30.516 who will rid me the troublesome priests, He's like, yeah, 0:21:30.556 --> 0:21:33.196 that Beckett guy, someone shoot him because that's the kind 0:21:33.196 --> 0:21:37.396 of thing. So, okay, let's turn now to what's about 0:21:37.436 --> 0:21:41.476 to happen, to the full dress impeachment inquiry. Followed by 0:21:41.556 --> 0:21:44.596 it seems very likely to me a full dress impeachment 0:21:44.716 --> 0:21:47.676 vote in the House, and then something will turn to 0:21:47.716 --> 0:21:50.076 the question in a moment of what in the Senate? 0:21:50.356 --> 0:21:55.076 So what are your bookmaker's odds that Donald Trump will 0:21:55.076 --> 0:21:57.236 be impeached by the House of Representatives, that a majority 0:21:57.276 --> 0:21:59.236 of members of the House of Representatives will vote to 0:21:59.276 --> 0:22:01.676 impeach him and send the case to the Senate. I 0:22:01.716 --> 0:22:03.636 think we're on a glide path where that is all 0:22:03.636 --> 0:22:07.716 but certain at this point. Okay, And what quirks or 0:22:07.836 --> 0:22:11.316 surprises do you expect along the way to that vote? 0:22:11.316 --> 0:22:13.836 I mean, could they vote on that, you know, in 0:22:13.876 --> 0:22:16.556 a matter of weeks? Does it necessarily have to take 0:22:16.596 --> 0:22:19.116 months where they work through lots of details. Will the 0:22:19.156 --> 0:22:21.036 Republicans in the House try to push back at all 0:22:21.076 --> 0:22:23.356 since they don't have the votes? How do you imagine 0:22:23.356 --> 0:22:25.756 that playing itself out? Well? I think Republicans in the 0:22:25.756 --> 0:22:28.316 House have very little power because the majority in the 0:22:28.316 --> 0:22:31.476 House has all the power. So aside from making outrageous 0:22:31.476 --> 0:22:34.516 statements or asking a bunch of questions that are self 0:22:34.556 --> 0:22:36.956 serving in some way, there's not a whole lot Republicans 0:22:36.956 --> 0:22:39.476 can do in the House. So I don't think that 0:22:39.476 --> 0:22:41.716 they will throw in a bunch of roadblocks. I think 0:22:41.756 --> 0:22:45.516 the Trump administration at some point will realize that releasing 0:22:45.516 --> 0:22:48.756 the tape and being as open as they've ever been 0:22:48.916 --> 0:22:52.156 was a terrible mistake, and that they will attempt to 0:22:52.196 --> 0:22:55.396 close the door and stop cooperating. We're already starting to 0:22:55.436 --> 0:22:57.796 see this happening. So then, on this theory, on your theory, 0:22:57.796 --> 0:23:00.796 the Trump administration can start being obstructionists. They can, and 0:23:00.836 --> 0:23:03.596 that runs the clock, right, That runs the clock as 0:23:03.596 --> 0:23:06.876 we get closer and closer and closer to November twenty twenty. 0:23:07.316 --> 0:23:09.556 Why does that benefit them? Isn't it better for them 0:23:09.556 --> 0:23:11.836 to get this all over with quickly? I think that 0:23:11.876 --> 0:23:14.276 there are two ways to look at that. So one 0:23:14.436 --> 0:23:16.516 is get it over with quickly and then they can 0:23:16.556 --> 0:23:19.796 move on right, and that is an advantage, But I 0:23:19.796 --> 0:23:23.676 think it also becomes harder and harder for this process 0:23:23.716 --> 0:23:26.036 to be maintained the closer it gets to the election, 0:23:26.356 --> 0:23:28.516 because it begins to seem absurd that you're trying to 0:23:28.556 --> 0:23:30.796 throw out a president who's about to be voted on 0:23:31.436 --> 0:23:35.236 and may be reelected. Correct. So that's one answer. I 0:23:35.236 --> 0:23:38.276 think the second answer is, look, their concern is not 0:23:38.436 --> 0:23:40.556 ultimately that they're going to get impeached by the House. 0:23:40.636 --> 0:23:44.876 The concern is that ultimately some senators, enough senators turn 0:23:44.956 --> 0:23:47.836 on them that he either gets thrown out of office 0:23:47.996 --> 0:23:50.596 or it becomes impossible to maintain that this is entirely 0:23:50.596 --> 0:23:52.916 a democratic thing. So even if he doesn't get thrown 0:23:52.916 --> 0:23:56.236 out of office, if ten senators, ten Republican senators vote 0:23:56.236 --> 0:23:58.676 with the Democrats, it's a lot harder to paint this 0:23:58.796 --> 0:24:01.636 as only a Democrat could think he did anything wrong? Right, 0:24:02.076 --> 0:24:04.636 so how do you prevent that? And it could be 0:24:04.676 --> 0:24:06.436 that the answer to how you prevent that is you 0:24:06.516 --> 0:24:08.836 make sure where stuff doesn't come out. But it also 0:24:08.916 --> 0:24:11.636 might be that if you look like you're blocking everything, 0:24:11.676 --> 0:24:15.476 that gives some reason for Republicans in the Senate to say, well, gee, 0:24:15.876 --> 0:24:18.636 we think he did obstruct justice or obstruct the inquiries 0:24:18.636 --> 0:24:20.756 of Congress, and that's a reason to vote against him too. 0:24:20.916 --> 0:24:22.956 But to me, it feels like that ship sailed long ago. 0:24:23.036 --> 0:24:25.436 The President's been obstructing Congress for the last year, and 0:24:25.516 --> 0:24:27.996 not a single Republican has complained about it. Right, Is 0:24:27.996 --> 0:24:29.956 there anything you said, We're on a glide path to 0:24:30.036 --> 0:24:33.996 almost certain impeachment. Can you imagine anything that would cause 0:24:34.036 --> 0:24:36.956 the Democrats to say, you know what, you know, maybe 0:24:36.956 --> 0:24:39.156 we shouldn't do this. Let's imagine that polls come in 0:24:39.516 --> 0:24:42.036 that tell the Democrats that a lot of their base 0:24:42.476 --> 0:24:45.756 thinks impeachment is a mistake, because you know, in the 0:24:45.876 --> 0:24:49.436 end it's going to distract the country from the twenty 0:24:49.476 --> 0:24:53.276 twenty election. I don't anticipate that happening. I think there's 0:24:53.276 --> 0:24:55.676 a different set of polls that might create a problem. 0:24:55.676 --> 0:24:58.996 My guess is the Democrat take voters in polls will 0:24:59.356 --> 0:25:01.836 kind of come around on impeachment if they haven't already. Right. 0:25:02.196 --> 0:25:03.676 In fact, I think that voters are going to vote 0:25:03.676 --> 0:25:06.076 against Trump anyway, impeachment or no impeachment, correct, So it 0:25:06.076 --> 0:25:08.556 almost doesn't matter what they think. I think a bigger 0:25:08.596 --> 0:25:12.436 problem is they do rely on certain moderate or Democrats 0:25:12.476 --> 0:25:16.236 from moderate districts, and if those Democrats get cold feet 0:25:16.276 --> 0:25:19.436 about whether or not this is a good idea, then 0:25:19.476 --> 0:25:23.876 I think the impeachment process could run into some rocky waters. 0:25:24.036 --> 0:25:27.876 Can Nancy Pelosi effectively stop the whole thing herself or 0:25:27.916 --> 0:25:30.076 does she need a vote? I mean, is she in 0:25:30.076 --> 0:25:33.436 a situation where Donald Trump says she is no longer 0:25:33.436 --> 0:25:35.076 the Speaker of the House by which she doesn't literally 0:25:35.116 --> 0:25:36.676 means she's not the Speaker of the House. He means 0:25:37.036 --> 0:25:38.876 she doesn't really have the center of power in the 0:25:38.916 --> 0:25:41.276 House anymore. Of the power has shifted to the part 0:25:41.276 --> 0:25:43.516 of the party that's been demanding impeachment, like a lot 0:25:43.556 --> 0:25:46.676 of the presidential candidates have been doing. That is to say, 0:25:46.716 --> 0:25:49.676 to Pelosi's left, is it realistic for her to stop 0:25:49.716 --> 0:25:52.436 it at some point? Could she do it? I think 0:25:52.436 --> 0:25:55.076 it will at this moment. Probably not, But is it 0:25:55.116 --> 0:25:57.876 possible that some set of circumstances or polls could come 0:25:57.876 --> 0:26:01.036 out later. Maybe. But the other option she has is 0:26:01.036 --> 0:26:02.556 she could bring it to a vote and he could lose, 0:26:02.996 --> 0:26:05.636 but that it would only lose if a significant number 0:26:05.636 --> 0:26:08.036 of Democrats voted against impeachment. And it seems to me 0:26:08.556 --> 0:26:11.396 that even a Democrat in a moderate district can't get 0:26:11.436 --> 0:26:13.756 away with voting against impeachment at this point. I mean, 0:26:13.756 --> 0:26:15.636 how can you get up in the House of Representatives 0:26:15.676 --> 0:26:18.436 as a Democrat and cast any vote that is perceived 0:26:18.476 --> 0:26:21.276 as a vote for Donald Trump. You'll be primaried and 0:26:21.396 --> 0:26:23.396 it'll be all over for you, no matter where you're from. 0:26:24.076 --> 0:26:26.036 I think you're right, and thus it's a little hard 0:26:26.076 --> 0:26:29.036 to understand how So bottom line, impeachment is coming. Okay, 0:26:29.076 --> 0:26:32.196 So once impeachment comes, according to the Constitution, we're supposed 0:26:32.196 --> 0:26:34.596 to move to a trial in the Senate. And miss 0:26:34.676 --> 0:26:37.156 McConnell has said, don't worry, I will hold a trial 0:26:37.156 --> 0:26:38.836 in the Senate. But as for how long it's going 0:26:38.876 --> 0:26:42.556 to last, he said, that's another matter altogether. What's the 0:26:42.716 --> 0:26:46.596 fastest and the most minimalistic proceeding that McConnell think can 0:26:46.636 --> 0:26:48.756 get away with in the Senate. And remember, Chief Justice 0:26:48.796 --> 0:26:51.076 John Roberts will be there presiding, but he's just one guy. 0:26:51.116 --> 0:26:52.796 The rest of the Supreme Court doesn't come with him. 0:26:52.876 --> 0:26:56.196 I remember actually watching the Clinton impeachments when I was 0:26:56.196 --> 0:26:57.596 a law crook at the Supreme Court. That so I 0:26:57.636 --> 0:27:00.556 got a ticket, and you know, Chief Justice Ranquist was 0:27:00.596 --> 0:27:03.556 just sort of sitting there in his fancy robe and 0:27:04.116 --> 0:27:05.876 he was like an ornament to the room. But he 0:27:05.876 --> 0:27:08.396 didn't really get to say or do almost anything. So 0:27:08.436 --> 0:27:10.556 I think this is probably more in your area than mine. 0:27:10.596 --> 0:27:12.956 But my understanding is that they could just go ahead 0:27:12.956 --> 0:27:15.516 and have a vote on day one should we impeach 0:27:15.556 --> 0:27:17.956 the president. I don't think they could get away with that. 0:27:18.036 --> 0:27:22.436 I mean to my mind, the Constitution clearly imagines a 0:27:22.516 --> 0:27:25.716 process in which the impeachment is recommended, like an indictment, 0:27:25.956 --> 0:27:29.276 and then there's some kind of proceeding or discussion or 0:27:29.396 --> 0:27:33.356 trial in front of the Senate. And you know, historically 0:27:33.676 --> 0:27:36.716 trials in Britain in parliament, trials for impeachment were a 0:27:36.756 --> 0:27:39.516 serious undertaking and they went on for years. You know. 0:27:39.556 --> 0:27:42.196 The most famous and influential impeachment that the Framers knew 0:27:42.196 --> 0:27:44.516 about was the impeachment of Warren Hastings, who had been 0:27:45.076 --> 0:27:47.876 the governor in India effectively, and he was impeached in 0:27:47.916 --> 0:27:50.076 the seventeen seventies, and that trial went on for I 0:27:50.076 --> 0:27:53.356 want to say seven years, you know. I mean it 0:27:53.396 --> 0:27:55.556 was like you know, front page news for a lot 0:27:55.596 --> 0:27:57.956 of that time too, And the Framers knew all about 0:27:57.956 --> 0:28:00.556 it because it was in the newspapers. They contemplated some 0:28:00.676 --> 0:28:03.996 kind of a trial like process, but couldn't they decide 0:28:04.036 --> 0:28:06.516 that they're going to let the the house managers of 0:28:06.556 --> 0:28:09.716 the impeachment come in, make their presentation, put the call 0:28:09.756 --> 0:28:11.956 into evidence, and then vote on whether or not that 0:28:12.036 --> 0:28:14.516 is sufficient grounds for impeachment. And a bunch of Republican 0:28:14.556 --> 0:28:16.716 senators come out and say, even if we assume this 0:28:16.796 --> 0:28:18.876 is all true, I don't think it's grounds for impeachment. 0:28:19.076 --> 0:28:21.276 They vote and it's over right, sort of like a 0:28:21.316 --> 0:28:24.996 directed verdict process correct in a courtroom. Yeah, I think 0:28:25.356 --> 0:28:27.556 they might be able to get away with that. They 0:28:27.556 --> 0:28:30.516 won't want to go down in history. I think as 0:28:30.516 --> 0:28:34.156 the people who made the impeachment process look like a sham, 0:28:34.196 --> 0:28:36.916 they may not have to hear lots of witnesses. I 0:28:37.556 --> 0:28:39.756 get you there, I don't know. I think there's going 0:28:39.836 --> 0:28:42.276 to be tremendous pressure on them to hold something that 0:28:42.436 --> 0:28:45.036 looks a little bit like a trial for at least 0:28:45.156 --> 0:28:47.516 a few days. I mean, you know, when we go 0:28:47.556 --> 0:28:50.476 after a Supreme Court nominee that already takes a week 0:28:50.476 --> 0:28:53.076 of hearings. I have a hard time imagining them spending 0:28:53.196 --> 0:28:56.036 less time on it than they would would on that maybe. 0:28:56.116 --> 0:28:57.796 I mean, I think formally, I guess they could do it, 0:28:57.796 --> 0:28:59.116 but I doubt if they would really think they could 0:28:59.156 --> 0:29:01.796 get away with it. But so what difference does that make? 0:29:01.876 --> 0:29:04.116 So they have a sham trial of one to five 0:29:04.196 --> 0:29:07.276 days at the end of which they vote any of 0:29:07.276 --> 0:29:11.036 they acquitment and either a bunch of those senators from 0:29:11.356 --> 0:29:15.796 states that are purple, I guess, or blue decide to 0:29:15.836 --> 0:29:18.156 vote with the president or they vote against, and it 0:29:18.196 --> 0:29:21.236 doesn't matter because there still are enough enough numbers to 0:29:21.236 --> 0:29:24.716 get to an actual removal. So that's assuming that the 0:29:24.716 --> 0:29:27.236 tide doesn't break. Like there's also the possibility that the 0:29:27.276 --> 0:29:30.516 tide breaks and at some point Republicans say we'd be 0:29:30.516 --> 0:29:32.636 better off with Pens. So let's talk about that. What 0:29:32.716 --> 0:29:35.156 does it take for the tide to break? And then 0:29:35.196 --> 0:29:36.916 we'll come to the question of what are the odds 0:29:36.956 --> 0:29:38.716 of the tide breaking? But what would it take. What 0:29:38.796 --> 0:29:40.676 are the kinds of facts that would have to enter 0:29:40.676 --> 0:29:43.076 into the mix in your view that would lead enough 0:29:43.116 --> 0:29:46.276 Republicans to say we're better off with pens. I'm actually 0:29:46.356 --> 0:29:48.316 of the view that the answer to that has nothing 0:29:48.356 --> 0:29:50.076 to do with the facts. I think the answer to 0:29:50.116 --> 0:29:52.996 that probably has something to do with the polls. Well, 0:29:53.036 --> 0:29:55.436 what we'll move the polls? That is the question. And 0:29:55.596 --> 0:29:58.076 I don't know, say the President called a dozen countries 0:29:58.396 --> 0:30:00.476 and put pressure on them, and maybe doesn't this too much, 0:30:00.516 --> 0:30:02.636 but three or four other countries, and we as a 0:30:02.676 --> 0:30:05.196 gradual drip, drip drip, we find out that the President 0:30:05.236 --> 0:30:08.036 has been going around pressuring lots of countries, essentially to 0:30:08.116 --> 0:30:10.996 make up evidence to help him in his political campaign. 0:30:11.916 --> 0:30:14.436 My general view of the moment we're in is that 0:30:14.876 --> 0:30:17.636 as people say, nothing matters, and what that seems to 0:30:17.676 --> 0:30:20.596 mean is that no matter what happens, the polls are 0:30:20.596 --> 0:30:23.916 basically steady. Somewhere between fifty to fifty three percent of 0:30:23.916 --> 0:30:28.916 Americans think the president is disapprove of his performance performance 0:30:29.116 --> 0:30:32.196 and something between, you know, around forty one to forty 0:30:32.196 --> 0:30:34.796 three percent approve. My guess is that no matter what 0:30:34.916 --> 0:30:37.916 comes out, that will basically be true. Now, what happens 0:30:37.996 --> 0:30:40.956 if some of the people in that gap, right the 0:30:41.396 --> 0:30:43.956 five to whatever percent it is in that gap, you 0:30:43.996 --> 0:30:46.116 know what happens if they come around and say, you 0:30:46.156 --> 0:30:48.956 know what, I don't like this either. So I don't 0:30:48.996 --> 0:30:50.516 know what the answer to that is, but I'm not 0:30:50.556 --> 0:30:52.796 sure it would matter. So if you're right about that, 0:30:52.876 --> 0:30:54.716 I mean, I hear everything you're saying, and it seems 0:30:55.116 --> 0:30:59.476 logically correct. If that's the case, there's almost no chance 0:30:59.996 --> 0:31:03.476 of the tide breaking and Republicans voting to remove It's 0:31:03.556 --> 0:31:07.316 close to a zero chance because as you say that, core, 0:31:07.796 --> 0:31:09.436 you know they could hear, I mean, may not be 0:31:09.556 --> 0:31:11.396 quite the Trump position that they could hear that he 0:31:11.396 --> 0:31:13.956 shot someone at Fifth Avenue, but it's pretty close to 0:31:14.036 --> 0:31:16.836 saying that they wouldn't, you know, they wouldn't abandon him. 0:31:16.876 --> 0:31:19.356 And if that's the case, if you're a Republican, there's 0:31:19.396 --> 0:31:21.956 no way you're better off going into the election with Pence, 0:31:22.316 --> 0:31:25.116 because we know that that forty one percent base of 0:31:25.196 --> 0:31:29.196 Republicans like Trump, but we have no idea if they 0:31:29.196 --> 0:31:32.156 feel as strongly about Pence, and Pence certainly can't rally 0:31:32.156 --> 0:31:34.916 the base the way Trump can, especially if the Republicans 0:31:34.956 --> 0:31:38.756 have somehow admitted via removal that there's something wrong with Trump. 0:31:38.996 --> 0:31:41.996 So in that scenario, you're actually saying this is a 0:31:42.076 --> 0:31:44.756 kind of for ordained conclusion, like Trump is going to 0:31:44.796 --> 0:31:47.316 be acquitted by the Senate full stop. Well I'm not 0:31:47.396 --> 0:31:49.316 quite saying that, because I think there's one exception I'll 0:31:49.316 --> 0:31:51.236 come to in a second. But I want to respond 0:31:51.236 --> 0:31:53.436 to your point about Pence first, which is I actually 0:31:53.476 --> 0:31:57.036 agree with you that if they Republicans vote to impeach Trump, 0:31:57.436 --> 0:32:00.356 they are all but conceding the next election. The reason 0:32:00.436 --> 0:32:04.236 to do that might be that they're better off letting 0:32:04.276 --> 0:32:07.596 the next election happen and not as a landslide and 0:32:07.636 --> 0:32:09.996 then regrouping over the cot of the next four years, 0:32:10.076 --> 0:32:13.036 essentially fast forwarding the post Trump era. One interesting about 0:32:13.076 --> 0:32:15.156 this is it shows you that the timing really matters. 0:32:15.276 --> 0:32:18.036 So when Republicans signaled that they were going to abandon 0:32:18.196 --> 0:32:21.396 Richard Nixon and he therefore stepped down rather than been 0:32:21.436 --> 0:32:24.516 removed from office, it was still early enough for them 0:32:24.516 --> 0:32:28.196 to think that once Gerald Ford became president they would 0:32:28.236 --> 0:32:31.756 have a shot at the nineteen seventy six election. It 0:32:31.796 --> 0:32:33.756 was still wasn't clear at that point. It was still 0:32:33.836 --> 0:32:36.636 really late seventy four by the time that happened, and 0:32:36.796 --> 0:32:38.756 we still didn't know who the Democratic nominee was going 0:32:38.836 --> 0:32:41.476 to be, and it was still conceivable that Ford could win. 0:32:41.556 --> 0:32:43.396 And Ford didn't beat Carter, but he put up a 0:32:43.396 --> 0:32:48.196 reasonable show considering that a Republican president had just been impeached. 0:32:48.756 --> 0:32:51.156 Now the timing is different because we're so much later 0:32:51.236 --> 0:32:54.956 in the cycle. So it seems very, as you say, 0:32:55.076 --> 0:32:58.116 hard to imagine the Republicans thinking we removed Trump and 0:32:58.156 --> 0:33:01.356 then we go on to win the election. So what's 0:33:01.396 --> 0:33:04.836 the scenario where things could genuinely So this isn't probably 0:33:04.836 --> 0:33:07.476 a somewhat unsatisfying answer, but I do think that when 0:33:08.516 --> 0:33:11.716 these kinds of regimes, if I may say that, crumble, 0:33:12.076 --> 0:33:15.716 they crumble instantly. They don't crumble bit by bit. So 0:33:15.796 --> 0:33:17.996 what I don't think we're going to see happen is 0:33:18.596 --> 0:33:21.836 Republican senators coming out in onesie twosies saying, you know, 0:33:22.436 --> 0:33:25.476 other than maybe Mitt Romney, you know, saying I disapprove 0:33:25.516 --> 0:33:28.276 of this. I think that there would have to be 0:33:28.396 --> 0:33:30.556 in one fell swoop, in one fell swoop, But what's 0:33:30.556 --> 0:33:32.396 the swoop? What do we need to hear? I mean, 0:33:32.556 --> 0:33:34.716 let's imagine that one of these calls, or maybe on 0:33:34.756 --> 0:33:37.516 this tape, we find out that the president literally said, 0:33:37.636 --> 0:33:40.876 quid pro quo, you do this, I do this? Would 0:33:40.876 --> 0:33:42.916 that do it? I would like to think the answer 0:33:42.956 --> 0:33:45.356 to that is yes. But I honestly don't know what 0:33:45.476 --> 0:33:47.636 else could what else could could bring us to that 0:33:47.676 --> 0:33:50.516 point of collapse, just some out of the blue new 0:33:50.596 --> 0:33:52.796 factory that comes out. I mean, you know one thing 0:33:52.796 --> 0:33:54.276 that makes me think there could be something like this 0:33:54.316 --> 0:33:56.596 out there is looking at how Donald Trump is reacting 0:33:56.636 --> 0:34:00.276 in real time to this inquiry. He doesn't seem like 0:34:00.316 --> 0:34:03.196 he's unrattled. Of course, he's escalating his rhetoric. You would 0:34:03.196 --> 0:34:07.316 have expected that under all circumstances. But he seems unhinges 0:34:07.356 --> 0:34:08.956 in a word we can really use because he's often 0:34:09.236 --> 0:34:12.076 rhetoric like this. But the way he's kind of lashing 0:34:12.116 --> 0:34:16.276 out in this non planned instinctive and it seems to 0:34:16.316 --> 0:34:19.036 me kind of threatened way, does make me wonder if 0:34:19.116 --> 0:34:22.716 he thinks that he's in trouble here. I agree, and 0:34:22.756 --> 0:34:26.756 maybe maybe that what causes the damn to break is 0:34:27.636 --> 0:34:30.396 a sense that he's out of control. I mean, is 0:34:30.436 --> 0:34:32.276 there something that he could do, maybe not even an 0:34:32.316 --> 0:34:34.716 unknown fact, but a thing yet to happen, you know, 0:34:34.836 --> 0:34:37.916 he launches a war against Iran or something. He's not 0:34:37.916 --> 0:34:39.956 going to do that in what seems like a transparent 0:34:39.996 --> 0:34:42.956 effort to change the subject that horrifies people. I mean, 0:34:42.956 --> 0:34:44.876 we think of the Wag the Dog, Snarah. That's a 0:34:44.916 --> 0:34:48.036 movie called Wag the Dog. And then Bill Clinton, in 0:34:48.076 --> 0:34:51.636 the middle of his impeachment, actually did commence the bombing 0:34:51.836 --> 0:34:55.276 of Serbia over a Cusso bombing of Serbia over a 0:34:55.316 --> 0:34:58.996 cussovo and that wasn't enough to get him removed from office. 0:34:59.196 --> 0:35:00.836 So I don't I don't think that a war would 0:35:00.876 --> 0:35:02.436 would do it. And I also don't think don Trump 0:35:02.476 --> 0:35:05.236 wants to go to war, and it's nothing. On Twitter. 0:35:05.356 --> 0:35:08.556 He could tweet literally anything and it will not suffice 0:35:08.556 --> 0:35:11.796 to get him removed by Republicans. It does seem that way, Okay, 0:35:11.836 --> 0:35:15.036 So we think that we're hard pressed to come up 0:35:15.036 --> 0:35:18.236 with a scenario where Trump would appear to be so 0:35:18.276 --> 0:35:20.436 far over the edge that he would be removed. I 0:35:20.436 --> 0:35:22.116 just want to add a little footnote here before I 0:35:22.116 --> 0:35:24.316 turn to the grand question of what history is going 0:35:24.356 --> 0:35:26.876 to say about all of this, And that little footnote 0:35:26.996 --> 0:35:30.836 is it's quirky, but it's kind of interesting. In principle, 0:35:30.876 --> 0:35:33.796 there is a scenario where Trump could be impeached and 0:35:33.916 --> 0:35:38.316 removed and still run for reelection and win and become 0:35:38.356 --> 0:35:41.596 president again. And the reason for that is a constitutional quirk. 0:35:41.796 --> 0:35:43.916 So in the clause of the Constitution that says what 0:35:43.996 --> 0:35:46.396 happens if you're impeached, it says there's two things that 0:35:46.436 --> 0:35:49.996 can happen to you. You can be removed and you 0:35:50.036 --> 0:35:53.116 can be disqualified from holding any office of trust under 0:35:53.116 --> 0:35:56.436 the United States. Now, under traditional interpretation of impeachment, it's 0:35:56.476 --> 0:36:00.516 not enough to be removed for the disqualification principle to 0:36:00.676 --> 0:36:04.036 kick in. Rather, Congress has to do two things. That's 0:36:04.076 --> 0:36:06.276 to the Senate has to both vote to remove you 0:36:06.636 --> 0:36:10.036 and separately vote to disqualify you, and almost all cases 0:36:10.036 --> 0:36:11.996 of impeachment they only do the former. There actually are 0:36:12.036 --> 0:36:15.436 a few cases where they've done both, but if they don't, 0:36:15.756 --> 0:36:17.516 you can get back involved, and so, in fact there 0:36:17.596 --> 0:36:21.036 is I was amazed to discover this. A sitting representative 0:36:21.076 --> 0:36:22.516 in Congress right now, a member of the House of 0:36:22.556 --> 0:36:26.356 Representatives who was a federal judge, was impeached and removed 0:36:26.396 --> 0:36:29.876 by the Senate, ran for Congress, got elected to Congress, 0:36:29.916 --> 0:36:32.916 and has been serving in Congress ever since. So Donald 0:36:32.916 --> 0:36:37.076 Trump could, in theory, be impeached and removed, run and win. 0:36:37.756 --> 0:36:40.236 I know that's a kind of far out scenario, but 0:36:40.276 --> 0:36:43.836 it doesn't seem out of bounds to me. I have 0:36:43.996 --> 0:36:46.916 to think that if we reach the point where Republicans 0:36:46.996 --> 0:36:48.876 in the Senate are willing to vote to remove him 0:36:48.916 --> 0:36:51.436 from office, the last thing they'll want is the nightmare 0:36:51.476 --> 0:36:53.476 of him turning around and running again. So you think 0:36:53.516 --> 0:36:56.276 they would actually then put in the disqualification thing for 0:36:56.316 --> 0:36:58.436 their own sake, for their own sake, so he doesn't 0:36:58.436 --> 0:37:02.116 come back after them. Yeah, I guess, I guess that's right. Okay, 0:37:02.636 --> 0:37:06.916 the view of history for a long time. In this presidency, 0:37:07.716 --> 0:37:11.356 there's been a debate why, a debate among Democrats saying, 0:37:12.076 --> 0:37:13.836 you know, should we impeach or should we not impeach? 0:37:13.876 --> 0:37:15.636 We've got enough evidence to impeach. It might be a 0:37:15.636 --> 0:37:18.956 political mistakes. Weighed on Muller, a lot of shilly shalling 0:37:18.956 --> 0:37:23.796 around this issue. Now things seem to have changed, and 0:37:24.196 --> 0:37:27.116 Nancy Pelosi's answer, at least when she's spoken about it publicly, 0:37:27.196 --> 0:37:28.916 is it's not that this is so much worse than 0:37:28.956 --> 0:37:32.196 what Trump has done before. This is just clear and explainable. 0:37:32.876 --> 0:37:35.276 When historians look back on this period and ask why 0:37:35.276 --> 0:37:38.076 didn impeachment happen? Now, is that going to be a 0:37:38.116 --> 0:37:41.836 sufficient answer for them. I suspect that the answer to 0:37:41.876 --> 0:37:43.836 that will depend a lot on what happens in the 0:37:43.876 --> 0:37:47.956 next year if Donald Trump is reelected, assuming he survives 0:37:47.956 --> 0:37:51.156 this impeachment scandal and he gets reelected, which, by the way, 0:37:51.516 --> 0:37:53.596 still the upshot of our conversation is that the most 0:37:53.636 --> 0:37:56.516 probable event is that he survives by far, and that 0:37:56.556 --> 0:37:58.316 there's a reasonable chance. I think we both agree that 0:37:58.356 --> 0:38:01.796 he'll get reelected, correct, and if those things happen, I 0:38:01.956 --> 0:38:04.676 think that this will be seen as you know, one 0:38:04.756 --> 0:38:07.356 step in the process of the dismantling of the constitution, 0:38:08.116 --> 0:38:09.796 But all of that will end on what he does 0:38:09.796 --> 0:38:12.036 in his second term. I assume that it will be 0:38:12.076 --> 0:38:14.116 even more outrageous things than he did in his first term, 0:38:14.116 --> 0:38:18.116 because they'll have even fewer constraints then if however, because 0:38:18.156 --> 0:38:19.916 he will have been impeached and it'll be like, I mean, 0:38:19.956 --> 0:38:21.996 we know that the day after the Moll investigation was over, 0:38:22.196 --> 0:38:24.756 he called Zelenski, So what's it going to be like 0:38:24.796 --> 0:38:26.716 if he's been impeached and not removed, he's really going 0:38:26.796 --> 0:38:29.396 to feel like and one reelection and one relection. Maybe 0:38:29.836 --> 0:38:32.876 isn't hoping to serve another term after that, although who knows, right, 0:38:33.276 --> 0:38:36.036 I think that at that point all bets are off, 0:38:36.436 --> 0:38:39.556 and I think it will then become a step in 0:38:39.596 --> 0:38:43.596 the process of the dismantling of what had been our 0:38:43.636 --> 0:38:46.676 system of constitutional government. Maybe maybe on a path to 0:38:46.676 --> 0:38:48.596 some other system, but it's not gonna be the same system. 0:38:48.796 --> 0:38:51.836 So here's a big question in that story, that incredibly 0:38:51.916 --> 0:38:55.796 depressing story. Is it good or bad that the Democrats 0:38:56.036 --> 0:38:58.956 tried via impeachments only put a hypothesis to you. The 0:38:59.076 --> 0:39:02.036 hypothesis would be this, you know, someday we're going to 0:39:02.116 --> 0:39:04.836 die and go to Valhalla and you know, meet James 0:39:04.836 --> 0:39:07.636 Madison and Alexander Hamilton, or at least in my fantasy world, 0:39:07.636 --> 0:39:09.476 that's where I go, and that's my first meeting I 0:39:09.556 --> 0:39:12.156 take when I get to Valhalla, and you know, they're 0:39:12.156 --> 0:39:15.476 going to say, we told you this could happen. You know, 0:39:15.556 --> 0:39:17.636 we told you that foreign powers would seek to be 0:39:17.676 --> 0:39:20.676 in the ascendant, and we told you that we created 0:39:20.676 --> 0:39:23.796 the impeachment proceeding for this circumstance. What did you do? 0:39:24.036 --> 0:39:25.876 You know, what did you take action? And I have 0:39:25.956 --> 0:39:29.596 the hypothesis that even if the Democrats can't remove Trump, 0:39:30.356 --> 0:39:34.276 that they might be justified in going forward now, just 0:39:34.356 --> 0:39:36.116 so that they can say, in front of the judgment 0:39:36.156 --> 0:39:40.036 of history, we tried. We tried to save the republic. 0:39:40.196 --> 0:39:43.956 We had a present who openly abused power. We tried 0:39:43.996 --> 0:39:47.356 to vote him out. Okay, the people weren't with us, 0:39:47.636 --> 0:39:49.676 and as the founding fathers should be the first to acknowledge, 0:39:49.716 --> 0:39:51.796 if the people lack political virtue, it is the end 0:39:51.836 --> 0:39:53.916 of the republic. But can't there's no fix to that one. 0:39:54.716 --> 0:39:57.956 The alternati view would be, no, you know, don't do something. 0:39:57.996 --> 0:39:59.476 It's going to make it worse for the Republic. We're 0:39:59.516 --> 0:40:01.356 better off not trying, because then we'll have a Trump 0:40:01.396 --> 0:40:03.916 who's empowered by the failure of impeachment. And we shouldn't 0:40:03.916 --> 0:40:06.556 have even done that. We should think only about practical consequences, 0:40:06.716 --> 0:40:08.916 not about the judgment of history. Where do you come 0:40:08.956 --> 0:40:12.316 down on that debate. I think we reached the judgment 0:40:12.316 --> 0:40:15.196 of history point. But I also think that part of 0:40:15.236 --> 0:40:18.716 what informed Pelosi up till now was fear of the 0:40:18.716 --> 0:40:21.396 Clinton situation, which is that he gets impeached and gets 0:40:21.436 --> 0:40:23.796 more popular. At least that's how it's remembered. I don't 0:40:23.796 --> 0:40:25.756 think it's perfectly clear that's what actually happened, but that's 0:40:25.756 --> 0:40:29.156 certainly how it's remembered. I think for a bunch of 0:40:29.196 --> 0:40:33.556 reasons that position became untenable, mostly because this was such 0:40:33.596 --> 0:40:36.236 a clear slap in the face, and it particularly what 0:40:36.276 --> 0:40:39.636 he's accused of doing is attempting to influence the next election. 0:40:40.156 --> 0:40:41.796 If you thought the only way to get him out 0:40:41.796 --> 0:40:44.476 of office is by voting him out of office, you 0:40:44.516 --> 0:40:47.116 can't then let him try to put his finger on 0:40:47.156 --> 0:40:49.756 the scales to prevent that very thing from happening. So 0:40:49.756 --> 0:40:52.076 it's really the perfect storm on that view. I mean, 0:40:52.196 --> 0:40:53.796 that's a good answer. It says, it's not just that 0:40:53.836 --> 0:40:56.916 this is clearer, it's that everything else had happened in 0:40:56.956 --> 0:41:00.276 twenty sixteen, and that election was over because although the 0:41:00.316 --> 0:41:03.356 Democrats won, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, Trump won 0:41:03.396 --> 0:41:06.276 the election. But if you're talking about twenty twenty, if 0:41:06.276 --> 0:41:09.436 the conduct that's alleged is trying to subvert the twenty election, 0:41:09.556 --> 0:41:12.556 the Democrats had to act because it's forward looking, and 0:41:12.636 --> 0:41:15.076 what's the alternative if you don't act now. I don't 0:41:15.076 --> 0:41:17.476 know that it will make that much difference in terms 0:41:17.476 --> 0:41:20.596 of empowering Trump once it comes out that he's trying 0:41:20.596 --> 0:41:22.676 to influence the twenty twenty election, which it has come 0:41:22.716 --> 0:41:25.436 out of this correct for the Democrats to do nothing 0:41:25.716 --> 0:41:28.876 also says the field is yours, do whatever you want, 0:41:28.996 --> 0:41:31.636 Although the other thing it could be saying is we've 0:41:31.676 --> 0:41:33.996 told the public about this, The public knows about it, 0:41:34.276 --> 0:41:35.876 and now we're going to vote it out. You know, 0:41:35.916 --> 0:41:38.556 now we're going to actually see who wins the election. 0:41:38.956 --> 0:41:40.796 And you could see that argument, you know, put that 0:41:40.836 --> 0:41:42.996 was the Polosi argument up until a few weeks ago. 0:41:43.356 --> 0:41:46.116 Put all the eggs in the twenty twenty basket. Say 0:41:46.116 --> 0:41:48.996 to the electorate, the president's trying to con you, The 0:41:49.036 --> 0:41:50.796 president's trying to play you. The president's trying to get 0:41:50.836 --> 0:41:53.916 help from Ukraine to influence you. You know, resist that influence. 0:41:53.916 --> 0:41:55.596 And I suppose you can do that va impeachment, But 0:41:55.636 --> 0:41:58.516 you could also do that not via impeachment. Yes, but 0:41:58.596 --> 0:42:00.716 we don't know what we don't know, So what else 0:42:00.796 --> 0:42:03.036 is he doing? Right? What if he's also making a 0:42:03.076 --> 0:42:05.196 side deal with the Russians to actually hack the electoral 0:42:05.196 --> 0:42:08.316 equipment and change the votes. Not everything can be resisted. 0:42:08.716 --> 0:42:12.196 But now, I mean, you're right, but that to me 0:42:12.676 --> 0:42:15.036 heads off in the direction of conspiracy. Not that the 0:42:15.076 --> 0:42:17.716 Russians might not try to do that, that's improbable, but 0:42:17.836 --> 0:42:20.916 not totally conspiratorial, but rather that the Trump emmustician would 0:42:20.916 --> 0:42:23.796 collude in that, because as we know, when it came 0:42:23.836 --> 0:42:26.916 to the last election, they came very close to the 0:42:26.996 --> 0:42:30.196 line of colluding with the Russians, but they didn't. No, no, 0:42:30.236 --> 0:42:32.196 we don't know that. What we know is that there 0:42:32.236 --> 0:42:34.876 was never evidence that they actually colluded. What we have 0:42:34.996 --> 0:42:38.116 this time that's different is actual evidence of collusion, direct 0:42:38.156 --> 0:42:40.996 evidence of collusion. Right, we still don't know what we 0:42:40.996 --> 0:42:43.636 don't know, and I'm not saying we have now as 0:42:43.676 --> 0:42:47.036 evidence of attempted collusion, all right, but in a much 0:42:47.196 --> 0:42:50.796 clearer way than we had with the last election. Right. 0:42:50.996 --> 0:42:53.076 If a phone call like this had come up about 0:42:53.116 --> 0:42:56.356 twenty sixteen with Putin, where would we be. I think 0:42:56.356 --> 0:42:58.716 that Muller's report would read very differently if there were 0:42:58.796 --> 0:43:02.236 the transcript of a phone call in which Trump laid 0:43:02.236 --> 0:43:05.036 out this same type of deal with Putin. So when 0:43:05.196 --> 0:43:09.956 we meet Madison in Hamilton, they're going to say what 0:43:10.116 --> 0:43:12.876 they're going to say. Okay, good that you tried. But 0:43:12.996 --> 0:43:15.956 in the end it's all about the people, you know, 0:43:16.316 --> 0:43:19.076 will the people be convinced? And in the end, I 0:43:19.076 --> 0:43:21.996 think that measurement will come less from the impeachment process 0:43:22.036 --> 0:43:24.156 than from the twenty twenty election. I mean, in some sense, 0:43:24.196 --> 0:43:25.876 what I hear you saying, and I think maybe I 0:43:25.916 --> 0:43:27.676 agree with this, is that the twenty twenty election is 0:43:27.716 --> 0:43:30.316 one of the most important in the history of the Republic, 0:43:30.796 --> 0:43:33.836 not so much because of Republican versus Democrat, or because 0:43:33.876 --> 0:43:36.356 of the future of the country with respect any given policy, 0:43:36.956 --> 0:43:39.356 as because it will be the judgment of history on 0:43:39.396 --> 0:43:43.236 how much a president can subvert the Constitution openly and 0:43:43.836 --> 0:43:47.396 still have a shot at getting reelected. I believe that's true. 0:43:47.476 --> 0:43:50.476 But let's assume for the moment that the Democrats win 0:43:50.996 --> 0:43:54.036 the next election. I think there's another way in which 0:43:54.076 --> 0:43:57.636 this fight may yet reverberate back that is worth at 0:43:57.676 --> 0:44:01.556 least pondering. Which is the moment that happens. Let's assume 0:44:01.556 --> 0:44:04.476 that two years later, as has become the pattern, Republicans 0:44:04.516 --> 0:44:07.076 regain control of the House or the Senate. If they 0:44:07.076 --> 0:44:10.196 don't already have control, do they immediately turn around and 0:44:10.236 --> 0:44:13.356 impeach the Democratic president? And I think the answer to 0:44:13.436 --> 0:44:15.996 that may end up being yes, because this will be 0:44:16.036 --> 0:44:19.716 seen on the right as the coup that Trump says 0:44:19.716 --> 0:44:23.116 it is, and I worry that. I don't think there's 0:44:23.116 --> 0:44:24.916 a way around this problem. But I think that we 0:44:24.956 --> 0:44:27.516 have to be mindful of the fact that this is 0:44:27.556 --> 0:44:30.596 going to feel like we are now normalizing. To some 0:44:30.956 --> 0:44:33.956 we are normalizing the impeachment process to throw out a 0:44:33.996 --> 0:44:37.636 president we do not like that. Already Republicans flirted with 0:44:37.676 --> 0:44:40.476 that with Obama but never actually got there. They talked 0:44:40.476 --> 0:44:42.756 about impeaching Obama, though they didn't have any grounds and 0:44:42.756 --> 0:44:45.516 were never able to produce any. I wonder whether or 0:44:45.596 --> 0:44:47.796 not they will be as restrained, if I could even 0:44:47.876 --> 0:44:50.036 use that word, as they were with Obama, with the 0:44:50.076 --> 0:44:52.556 next Democratic president. So in that sense, we didn't dodge 0:44:52.596 --> 0:44:55.236 the bullet when after Bill Clinton's impeachment, when many people 0:44:55.276 --> 0:44:57.676 said the same thing, you know, next the Democrats are 0:44:57.676 --> 0:44:59.036 going to do it, and then the Republicans will do it. 0:44:59.076 --> 0:45:01.276 But it didn't happen right away. But the argument would 0:45:01.276 --> 0:45:04.276 be that an historical perspective, twenty years later we did 0:45:04.356 --> 0:45:08.236 have another impeachment, and since it had been since eighteen 0:45:08.316 --> 0:45:10.116 sixty eight when they came around to it in nineteen 0:45:10.196 --> 0:45:12.876 ninety eight, it's a long stretch of time, one hundred 0:45:12.916 --> 0:45:15.356 and thirty years. This time it only took twenty and 0:45:15.396 --> 0:45:17.636 then you can imagine that it'll take ten and five 0:45:17.676 --> 0:45:20.356 and then we could enter into a world of constant impeachments. 0:45:20.716 --> 0:45:24.956 And that is not the world that the Framers anticipated. Well, 0:45:25.076 --> 0:45:27.316 we're gonna have to find all that out, and in 0:45:27.356 --> 0:45:31.236 this extremely fascinating and challenging period of time, all we 0:45:31.356 --> 0:45:34.756 can do is try to understand what the Constitution requires, 0:45:34.956 --> 0:45:37.956 try to live in some accordance with its dictates, and 0:45:38.396 --> 0:45:40.876 keep on watching our news feeds and find out what 0:45:40.916 --> 0:45:44.796 extraordinary revelations will come next set. Thank you for clarifying 0:45:44.836 --> 0:45:46.996 all this and talking it through with me. I feel 0:45:46.996 --> 0:45:51.236 like I'm a little more pessimistic about the inevitability of 0:45:51.276 --> 0:45:53.716 certain events after talking to than I was when I started. 0:45:53.756 --> 0:45:55.476 But I feel like I'm enlightened with respect of what 0:45:55.636 --> 0:46:04.836 may happen. So thank you very much. And now our 0:46:04.876 --> 0:46:15.596 sound of the week, Why that was the sound of 0:46:15.756 --> 0:46:20.076 chaos in Hong Kong, a sound that heralds a genuine 0:46:20.196 --> 0:46:23.796 split screen for the government of the People's Republic of China. 0:46:23.916 --> 0:46:26.316 On the one hand, as you just heard, Hong Kong 0:46:26.396 --> 0:46:28.716 is in the midst of the worst protests that it's 0:46:28.756 --> 0:46:32.956 seen in the modern historical era, direct challenges to the 0:46:32.996 --> 0:46:36.676 authority of mainland China on the island. And yet at 0:46:36.676 --> 0:46:40.556 the same exact time in Beijing, the government of China 0:46:40.716 --> 0:46:45.076 celebrated the seventieth anniversary of the People's Republic and in effect, 0:46:45.356 --> 0:46:48.276 the victory of the Communist Party in the long historical 0:46:48.356 --> 0:46:51.556 process of bringing China into the modern era and turning 0:46:51.556 --> 0:46:55.756 it into a major global power. A centerpiece of that 0:46:55.876 --> 0:47:03.796 celebration was a rather extraordinary military parade. Underwater vehicle after 0:47:03.916 --> 0:47:10.036 underwater vehicle innovative unmanned drone after unmanneddrone paraded through the 0:47:10.036 --> 0:47:13.476 streets of Beijing, signaling to the world that China was 0:47:13.516 --> 0:47:16.916 not merely one of the most significant economies in the world, 0:47:17.236 --> 0:47:20.956 not merely enmeshed in an increasing and extending set of 0:47:20.996 --> 0:47:25.996 relationships with economic partners, but increasingly is emerging as the 0:47:25.996 --> 0:47:31.396 world's second genuine superpower, not yet directly competing with the 0:47:31.476 --> 0:47:34.636 United States globally, but increasingly capable of doing so, and 0:47:34.796 --> 0:47:38.156 certainly capable of competing with the United States in the 0:47:38.276 --> 0:47:42.356 region around China itself in Asia. So what are we 0:47:42.476 --> 0:47:46.796 to make of this extraordinary split screen that faces China. 0:47:46.996 --> 0:47:49.636 One way to think of it is that the Hong 0:47:49.716 --> 0:47:53.036 Kong protests are in fact, in historical terms, more of 0:47:53.076 --> 0:47:55.796 a blip in the rise of China than they are 0:47:56.036 --> 0:47:57.996 what most people in the West have taken them to be, 0:47:58.316 --> 0:48:02.796 a reminder that China is fundamentally an autocracy. Seen from 0:48:02.796 --> 0:48:07.076 the perspective of the longer swath of history, China's rise 0:48:07.236 --> 0:48:11.756 is now an accomplished fact. There's no going back. Any 0:48:11.836 --> 0:48:16.196 goal by the United States to limit, cabin or contain 0:48:16.356 --> 0:48:18.356 China is going to have to take place against the 0:48:18.396 --> 0:48:25.956 backdrop of China's tremendous economic growth and China's tremendous military improvements. 0:48:26.316 --> 0:48:29.196 That means that we're increasingly moving to a world that 0:48:29.316 --> 0:48:32.116 is not unipolar, in which there is a single superpower, 0:48:32.196 --> 0:48:34.476 as the French would sometimes put it hyperpower in the 0:48:34.556 --> 0:48:37.276 United States, but rather something a little bit closer to 0:48:37.316 --> 0:48:39.196 what we saw in the Cold War when there were 0:48:39.196 --> 0:48:43.356 two competing powers. Indeed, that's what made me, already almost 0:48:43.356 --> 0:48:45.796 a decade ago, think that we're entering a period not 0:48:45.916 --> 0:48:48.276 of Cold War but of cool war between the United 0:48:48.276 --> 0:48:52.956 States and China. The Hong Kong protests, though they symbolize 0:48:52.996 --> 0:48:57.196 and remind us the China's government is autocratic, don't fundamentally 0:48:57.436 --> 0:49:02.476 undercut that geopolitical analysis. The island of Hong Kong may 0:49:02.516 --> 0:49:04.916 be full of unrest, but that is not sufficient to 0:49:05.036 --> 0:49:08.756 derail China. I think that when historians look back on 0:49:08.756 --> 0:49:12.796 the seb anniversary, that's the take they're more likely to have. Yet, 0:49:12.796 --> 0:49:16.196 there is an important message associated with the realities of 0:49:16.236 --> 0:49:18.836 what's happening in Hong Kong, and it is the reminder 0:49:18.916 --> 0:49:22.996 to China's leaders, and particular to Shijinping, that just because 0:49:23.036 --> 0:49:27.156 you're a superpower doesn't mean every part of your increasing 0:49:27.196 --> 0:49:32.036 empire will do what you want. That's a lesson that 0:49:32.116 --> 0:49:33.756 you don't really have to think about when you're in 0:49:33.796 --> 0:49:36.116 the process of rising, but you do have to think 0:49:36.116 --> 0:49:39.276 about when you're in the process of expanding. There will 0:49:39.276 --> 0:49:42.156 be global actors, including actors who are just a bunch 0:49:42.196 --> 0:49:44.916 of teenagers in a place like Hong Kong, the no 0:49:45.036 --> 0:49:50.276 geopolitical significance, who nevertheless are capable of interfering and blocking 0:49:50.276 --> 0:49:53.796 you from doing what you want, and who can enable 0:49:53.876 --> 0:49:57.116 you not to have the global feel good story that 0:49:57.156 --> 0:50:00.356 you're trying to accomplish. That is a message that we 0:50:00.436 --> 0:50:03.956 need to remember because it's a reminder that China's rise 0:50:04.396 --> 0:50:07.716 is interwoven with the question of how China governs itself. 0:50:08.396 --> 0:50:11.036 Through much of the period of its rise, China was 0:50:11.076 --> 0:50:15.676 governed by a broad elite of Chinese communist power elders 0:50:15.916 --> 0:50:20.356 who shared power amongst themselves and indeed alternated power in 0:50:20.396 --> 0:50:25.476 ten year cycles. They do not have that structure anymore today. 0:50:25.516 --> 0:50:29.436 Shijunping has emerged as the single dominant leader of China, 0:50:29.796 --> 0:50:32.116 more on the model of Mao than on the model 0:50:32.156 --> 0:50:35.556 of those who immediately preceded him. If you run the 0:50:35.596 --> 0:50:39.556 world that way, there's no guarantee that you can sustain 0:50:39.916 --> 0:50:43.276 and pass along the structures of authority over the long term. 0:50:43.916 --> 0:50:47.236 Dictatorship is smoother in a ten or twenty or even 0:50:47.356 --> 0:50:50.596 thirty year way, but dictatorship is not smoother when it 0:50:50.636 --> 0:50:54.556 comes to moments of transition, because again, the unruly public 0:50:54.796 --> 0:50:57.596 may get in the way of the transitions that you want. 0:50:57.956 --> 0:51:01.436 The genuine challenge that faces China going forward is to 0:51:01.476 --> 0:51:06.796 consolidate and stabilize its form of government. Shijinping has actually 0:51:06.876 --> 0:51:11.716 moved China backwards with respect to transitions from one generation 0:51:11.836 --> 0:51:15.116 of government to another. Sure, he's got the capacity to 0:51:15.156 --> 0:51:18.436 reduce corruption, which is a genuine systemic risk to the 0:51:18.436 --> 0:51:22.596 People's Republic, Yet in doing so, by consolidating power, he's 0:51:22.716 --> 0:51:27.156 opened himself to the possibility that the small voices at 0:51:27.156 --> 0:51:31.036 the periphery of his empire, and it is increasingly an empire, 0:51:31.436 --> 0:51:35.916 can interfere with the smooth operation that he actually wants. 0:51:36.316 --> 0:51:39.636 And to me, that's the takeaway of the split screen. 0:51:44.276 --> 0:51:47.236 Deep Background is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our 0:51:47.236 --> 0:51:50.316 producer is Lydia Jane Coott, with engineering by Jason Gambrell. 0:51:50.516 --> 0:51:54.276 And Jason Rostkowski. Our showrunner is Sophie mckibbon. Our theme 0:51:54.356 --> 0:51:57.156 music is composed by Luis Gera special thanks to the 0:51:57.156 --> 0:52:01.276 Pushkin Brass, Malcolm Gladwell, Jacob Weisberg and Mia Lobel. I'm 0:52:01.316 --> 0:52:04.596 Noah Feldman. You can follow me on Twitter at Noah R. Feldman. 0:52:04.956 --> 0:52:06.316 This is deep background