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Speaker 1: Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show

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Speaker 1: where we explored the stories behind the stories in the news.

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Speaker 1: I'm Noah Feldman. Welcome to this week's episode where we

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Speaker 1: talk about the republic and whether it is about to

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Speaker 1: collapse entirely. We are in the midst of a genuine

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Speaker 1: impeachment inquiry. This time it is not address rehearsal. Ladies

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Speaker 1: and gentlemen, hold on to your hats to discuss this

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Speaker 1: and many other issues. I'm thrilled to have with me

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Speaker 1: Seth Burman, a former state and federal prosecutor and my

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Speaker 1: spirit guide to all things criminal, no offense, Seth, and

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Speaker 1: indeed to all things connected to inquiries, impeachments, and everything

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Speaker 1: else we've had to deal with from the beginning of

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Speaker 1: this administration on. Seth, thank you so much for being here.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for having me. Now, so let's just start

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Speaker 1: in the middle of it, Seth. The impeachment inquiry. What

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Speaker 1: do you think the whistle blower complained? How do we

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Speaker 1: get here? The whistle blower complaint is absolutely fascinating, because,

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Speaker 1: first of all, the reality is the whistleblower didn't really

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Speaker 1: tell us all that much. That if you weren't paying

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Speaker 1: attention you didn't already know. It was well known that

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Speaker 1: Giuliani was running around. He was advertising that he was

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Speaker 1: running around in Ukraine and trying to get the Ukrainian

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Speaker 1: government to dig up dirt on Biden. It was reasonably

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Speaker 1: clear that the President was involved in that, because Giuliani

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Speaker 1: had said things like that over the time. But what

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Speaker 1: the whistleblower complaints seems to have done is number one

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Speaker 1: brought tremendous attention to it, and number two was point

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Speaker 1: out a way in which the veil of Giuliani doing

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Speaker 1: it as the president's lawyer or the president's individual lawyer,

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Speaker 1: as opposed to doing it as part of his official duties,

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Speaker 1: which he has none, because Rudy Giuliani has no official

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Speaker 1: duties in the US government. Correct. And that created just

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Speaker 1: enough of a cover that I think it was hard

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Speaker 1: for anyone to know what to do about it. But

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Speaker 1: then once the call or the fact of the call

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Speaker 1: was revealed in the whistleblower complaint and the phone call

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Speaker 1: between President Trump and President the Lodimir Zelenski of Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: that's exactly right. And once that call was was revealed,

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Speaker 1: and then the call itself or at least what we

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Speaker 1: think is a transcript of the call, semi quasi kind

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Speaker 1: of transcript exactly that semi quasi transcript seemed to show

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Speaker 1: Trump doing exactly the core of what he's not supposed

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Speaker 1: to be doing, the core abuse of power, which is

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Speaker 1: essentially using the power of the US government for his

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Speaker 1: own personal goals. To me, one of the takeaways from

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Speaker 1: this is, if you want to be in the president

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Speaker 1: and you want to get away with being the president

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Speaker 1: and doing the stuff you want to do, it might

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Speaker 1: be fine to be investigated by the former head of

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Speaker 1: the FBI, Bob Mueller, but you really don't want to

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Speaker 1: be investigated by some CIA desk officer who knows how

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Speaker 1: to write a five page memo. It certainly seems that way.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the five page memo did so much more

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Speaker 1: damage to the president than Mueller's report. And it's more

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Speaker 1: happened in five pages of the whistle blower complaint than

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Speaker 1: in five hundred of Muller reports. Right, And it's not

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Speaker 1: clear to me how much of that is because of

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Speaker 1: the sort of boiling of the frog thing that the

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Speaker 1: problem with Mueller is that it took so long that

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Speaker 1: by the time the report was done. We'd all gotten

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Speaker 1: used to all the facts in it. We were the

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Speaker 1: frog in the water and it got warmer and warmer,

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Speaker 1: and we didn't notice we were boiling, right, And now

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Speaker 1: this all came at once. So now it's like you

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Speaker 1: suddenly we're thrown into the boiling water. And there's no

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Speaker 1: avoiding the fact that this was outrageous. This is the

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Speaker 1: core outrageous, not the kind of what Republicans started calling

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Speaker 1: the process crimes. So I want to talk about the

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Speaker 1: phone call and the outrage because there are at least

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Speaker 1: two elements of the phone call, and I'm really interested

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Speaker 1: in maybe it's possible to untangle them a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Because we're sitting here, we have a little time, we

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Speaker 1: can analyze it. So, on the one hand, Trump is

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Speaker 1: asking Zelenski to spur an investigation of Joe Biden and

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Speaker 1: his son, and that's really clear to me. It's really

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Speaker 1: clear that that's an abuse of the president's power in

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Speaker 1: office for personal gain, because there's no national security interest

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Speaker 1: or national interest of any kind, even plausibly in the

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Speaker 1: investigation of Joe and Hunter Biden. And that's also the

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Speaker 1: part that Rudy Giuliani seems to have been most directly

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Speaker 1: involved in correct On the other hand, Trump is also

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Speaker 1: asking on that call. In fact, he asks first for

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Speaker 1: Zelenski's help in investigating what's basically a crazy right wing

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Speaker 1: conspiracy theory involving the company that first, the security company

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Speaker 1: that first looked at the Democratic National Committees hacks right, CrowdStrike, CrowdStrike,

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Speaker 1: What the hell is he doing and what does it

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Speaker 1: have to do with Ukraine, at least in Trump's mind.

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Speaker 1: So it is always very hard to untangle what people

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Speaker 1: are thinking about these crazy right wing conspiracy theories, right,

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Speaker 1: do Trump and Giuliani actually think it's true or are

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Speaker 1: they just trying to? But what's even the thing that

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Speaker 1: they're supposed that we're supposed to think, or so they

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Speaker 1: want us to think. As I understand it, what we're

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Speaker 1: supposed to think is that CrowdStrike was started by someone

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Speaker 1: who was born in Russia but is an American citizen.

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Speaker 1: That person is connected to a foundation, someone donated to

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Speaker 1: the foundation, or a wealthy Ukrainian donated to that foundation,

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Speaker 1: and based on that string of evidence, the conspiracy theory

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Speaker 1: is that CrowdStrike made up the idea that Russians hacked

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Speaker 1: into the DNC servers, and that in fact, it was

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians who are doing it essentially as a false

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Speaker 1: flag operation to help Hillary in some way, though it's

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Speaker 1: not totally clear how or maybe hurt the Russians, and

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Speaker 1: certainly to hurt the Russians, right, and that this is

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Speaker 1: a kind of made in Moscow conspiracy theory. It would

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Speaker 1: seem that way. Yeah, Okay, So that if it were true,

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Speaker 1: and that's an enormous if that we have to like

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Speaker 1: put up there in huge bold letters because obviously it's

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Speaker 1: not true. But if it were true, would the United

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Speaker 1: States have a genuine, legitimate interest in investigating that? As

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Speaker 1: part of the overall question that Trump says he's asked

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Speaker 1: Attorney General William bar to investigate, namely, if he never

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Speaker 1: colluded with the Russians, if there's no evidence that eclid

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Speaker 1: with the Russians, I did the world think? So, which

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Speaker 1: Trump thinks deserves to be investigated? Does that question deserve

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Speaker 1: to be investigated? I think the answer to that is no.

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Speaker 1: But it's a lot it's a lot closer, not so

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Speaker 1: much as to whether or not it should be investigated,

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Speaker 1: because of course it's absurd. So he's asking the Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: to investigate something, and I think we should be not

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Speaker 1: quick to use the president's word. It's not clear to

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Speaker 1: me that he really means investigate. When he says investigate,

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Speaker 1: he means find dirt on. Investigate implies that some proper

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Speaker 1: thing is going to happen, some search for the truth.

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Speaker 1: I don't actually think the President was asking them to

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Speaker 1: search for the truth of this. He was saying, find

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Speaker 1: me evidence that suggests the thing I want to find,

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Speaker 1: because that's a really important and fascinating things. If that's right,

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Speaker 1: then they are really at least two things wrong with

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Speaker 1: the phone call with Zelenski. One the request to find

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Speaker 1: dirt on Biden, and two just the request at all

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Speaker 1: and the pressure to find evidence to support this conspiracy

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Speaker 1: theory or to make up evidence to support this conspiracy theory.

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Speaker 1: Because that part actually involves the attorney general. And although

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Speaker 1: the Attorney General denies he knew anything, I don't know

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Speaker 1: it's plausible or not, but he denies he knew anything

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Speaker 1: about the Biden investigation, he can't deny that he knows

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Speaker 1: about this other investigation because he says he's performing it.

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Speaker 1: And this is relevant to an issue that I'm kind

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Speaker 1: of fascinated by, which I sort of think is going

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Speaker 1: to become significant in these impeachment inquiry proceedings eventually. And

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Speaker 1: that is just how careful, legal and rational as the

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Speaker 1: Attorney General of the United States has he as he's

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Speaker 1: done so far, been very careful to act in a

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Speaker 1: way that a reasonable lawyer could always defend in court,

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Speaker 1: or under Trump's sort of consistent pressure that he cross

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Speaker 1: over into wacko land by asking various countries to investigate

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Speaker 1: this conspiracy theory. I'm actually going to expand that idea

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Speaker 1: even further because I think that the same question could

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Speaker 1: essentially be asked in a slightly different way of the

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Speaker 1: Secretary of State, right, who essentially also got involved in this.

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Speaker 1: I suspect what's going on is that as the presidency

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Speaker 1: now revolves around Trump's crazy whim of the moment, right,

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Speaker 1: every senior official is out there trying to tamp down

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Speaker 1: whatever that is, and they make certain compromises necessary to

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Speaker 1: do so, which is every so often they just give

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Speaker 1: into the whim. They go investigate the latest crazy idea,

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Speaker 1: whatever it is. Probably they convince themselves that that's just

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Speaker 1: a side thing they're doing. But you do wonder whether

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Speaker 1: or not does bar actually believe this crazy conspiracy theory also,

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Speaker 1: or is he making a big show of investigating it

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Speaker 1: so as to keep the President happy on the theory

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Speaker 1: that there's nothing illegal or unconstitutional about the Department of

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Speaker 1: Justice engaging in a pointless investigation. The President says, investigate.

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Speaker 1: It's perfectly permissible to investigate as long as you don't

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Speaker 1: harm anybody. And if it's a crazy thing, like the

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Speaker 1: presidents would like to us to investigate whether the UFOs

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Speaker 1: landed in Roswell, so you investigate whe the UFOs landed

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Speaker 1: and Roswell, no harm, no foul. That would be the

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Speaker 1: kind of if we had bar here and truly off

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Speaker 1: the record, maybe that's what he would say about the investigation.

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Speaker 1: I assume that's what Baro two you're saying, correct. I

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Speaker 1: think that's probably what Barr would say. It is also

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Speaker 1: possible that Barr actually believes this, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: where it becomes a little bit hard to untangle what's

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Speaker 1: going on. Have some of the folks in the administration

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Speaker 1: reached the point of imbibing so much right wing news

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Speaker 1: that they've come around to believing theories that, on their

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Speaker 1: face are just absurd. So let's turn out to the

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Speaker 1: actual phone call, and I want to begin with this

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Speaker 1: question of whether there was just pressure, which is obvious

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Speaker 1: on the face of the phone call, or whether there

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Speaker 1: was some kind of a quid pro quo associated with

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Speaker 1: the fact that just a few days before the call,

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Speaker 1: the President had suspended three hundred ninety one million dollars

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Speaker 1: of military aid to Ukraine. He did it without telling

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Speaker 1: anyone the reason within we know from the whistleblower complaint

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Speaker 1: within the National Security Council. At the meetings where it

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Speaker 1: was announced, people wondered why the President was doing this,

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Speaker 1: and there was no answer. They just were told the

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Speaker 1: President wants to do that. So that's the setup. Then

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Speaker 1: the President comes into the call and he asks Zelenski

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Speaker 1: for quote a favor, and then Zelenski brings up Giuliani

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Speaker 1: immediately before the President brings up Juliani, and then the

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Speaker 1: President says, oh, and another thing and talks about the

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Speaker 1: Biden matter. So, first of all, do you think there

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Speaker 1: was a quid pro quo here? Put on your prosecutor's hat,

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Speaker 1: Was there, in fact some exchange between Trump and Zelenski

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Speaker 1: being proposed? I think the answer is clearly yes, for

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Speaker 1: anyone who's looking at the call fairly. I'll come back

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Speaker 1: to why I think people have the other interpretation. But

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Speaker 1: the quid pro quo is I think there may actually

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Speaker 1: be two quid pro quos in the call. The first

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Speaker 1: one is about the money, or at least the supply

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Speaker 1: of military aid, the fact that Trump had suspended the aid.

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Speaker 1: We don't yet know whether or not the Ukrainians knew that.

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Speaker 1: They certainly knew that they hadn't yet gotten it, and

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Speaker 1: they knew that it was held up. But whether or

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Speaker 1: not they understood that this call was a way to

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Speaker 1: break that through, we don't know because it's not on

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Speaker 1: the call. So let's put that aside for the moment.

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Speaker 1: Although and I just adds MS maybe it's just a footnote.

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Speaker 1: We know from the whistleplower complaint that after the call,

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainian President website actually said something along the lines

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Speaker 1: of we had a good call with the president. Investigations

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Speaker 1: will get started that will remove the obstacles to our

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Speaker 1: good relationship. So we do know that within a few

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Speaker 1: moments after the call they were interpreting it this way.

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Speaker 1: But go back to your point, Well, we know they

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Speaker 1: were interpreting about the good relationship. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: where the other interpretation will get to in a minute

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Speaker 1: comes from. The Ukrainian president didn't say and we're expecting

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Speaker 1: to get our money soon, right, He said something that

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Speaker 1: no doubt was code for that, but he didn't actually

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Speaker 1: say that. He said that there had been something that

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Speaker 1: was obstructing the relationship, and that was obviously the freezing

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Speaker 1: of the money. Anyway, go on. So I think that

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Speaker 1: is the broader context. But focus just for a moment

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Speaker 1: on the call itself and forget the broader context, which

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Speaker 1: isn't the right thing to do, but at least it's

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Speaker 1: a place to start on the call itself. The comment

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Speaker 1: about I need you to do me a favor, and

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Speaker 1: look at Joe Biden and his son comes immediately after,

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Speaker 1: literally like the sentence after Zelenski asks for anti tank

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Speaker 1: weapons and Trump says, okay, I need you to do

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Speaker 1: me a favor. So in that sense, there was a

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Speaker 1: literal ask the response to which is I need you

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Speaker 1: to do me a favor. So it is definitely true

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Speaker 1: that nobody used the words unless you do me this favor,

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Speaker 1: I will not give you what I asked for. But

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Speaker 1: in the real world. Literally, nobody talks that way. You

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Speaker 1: don't have to start espousing that this is a moblike

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Speaker 1: conversation to understand that people often do exchanges without actually

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Speaker 1: spelling out the if versus. You know, if then part

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Speaker 1: of the conversation. Right, I point my gun at you.

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Speaker 1: I don't have to say your money or your life.

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Speaker 1: I expect that you're going to give me your wallet.

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Speaker 1: Would you, as a prosecutor, have gone into court to

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Speaker 1: prosecute a public corruption case with a phone call tape

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Speaker 1: of a phone call with about as much connection to

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Speaker 1: the quidd pro quo as this phone call has. I

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Speaker 1: think that there's no question. Yes, everyone, every prosecutor I

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Speaker 1: know would do that. The connection between the ask and

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Speaker 1: the other ask, right, they ask for the for the weapons,

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Speaker 1: and the quote yes are right there. Usually these cases

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Speaker 1: fall apart because there's much less connection between the quid

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Speaker 1: and the quo then there is on this call. Correct, right,

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Speaker 1: This is one you you'd go in as a prosecutor.

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Speaker 1: You wouldn't just go into the court. You think you'd

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Speaker 1: be like, I'm going to win this one knowing that

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Speaker 1: I think you would walk into court and say this

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Speaker 1: tape has a very clear quid pro quo on it. Wow,

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Speaker 1: he asked for one thing, and his response is you

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Speaker 1: need to do this instead, and is that why? So,

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Speaker 1: just to give a word of background to listeners. When

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Speaker 1: the complaint arose and we heard about it, I immediately

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Speaker 1: grabbed my phone and I texted you immediately, and I said,

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Speaker 1: what's the crime? And you immediately texted me back public corruption.

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Speaker 1: In fact, you just use a number you wrote back

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Speaker 1: section eight seventy two. So I'm embarrassed to say I

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Speaker 1: had to look that up to that was public corruption?

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Speaker 1: And is that why you thought it was a public

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Speaker 1: corruption right away? Because it resembled those kinds of cases. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: it's the Normally these kinds of cases come up where

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Speaker 1: Congressman says, oh, we'd like to help you. I'd love

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Speaker 1: to be able to help you. I also need to

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Speaker 1: get reelected. It's much vaguer. Usually you don't say I

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Speaker 1: need your vote on this bill, all right, I need

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Speaker 1: you to do me a favor. Okay, So now talk

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Speaker 1: about the other interpretation, which is presentally the interpretation. Before

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Speaker 1: I get to that, there's one other quid pro quo.

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Speaker 1: I think that's in the call that's gotten a lot

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Speaker 1: less attention, which is at the very end of the

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Speaker 1: call again they're talking about the favor, and Zelenski says,

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Speaker 1: I'd really like to come visit the White House, which

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Speaker 1: is its own kind of favor that the president could grant.

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Speaker 1: It is extremely important to the Ukraine president to be

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Speaker 1: seen as being a close ally of the president, and

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Speaker 1: they had been trying to get a meeting with the

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Speaker 1: president in the White House for a while. And Trump's

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Speaker 1: response is something like, all right, you know, We'll look

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Speaker 1: at that. And it's clear that he's dangling yet another

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Speaker 1: favor in front of him, not just the money and

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Speaker 1: not just the weapon, but also this other favor of

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Speaker 1: the White House visit. Now, if that were all that

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Speaker 1: was there, I think it's a touch mushier because the

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Speaker 1: White House visit is arguably not an official act of

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Speaker 1: the president, although I think I think it is. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: but that's also in there and really hasn't gotten I

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Speaker 1: think the attention it probably deserves. And you know, it's

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Speaker 1: important to note in this context before we turn to

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Speaker 1: the alternative viewpoint, that this kind of dangling and pressure

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Speaker 1: is completely normal for a president if he's not seeking

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Speaker 1: personal gain for his own political reelection, right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is what governments due to each other all the time. Presumably,

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Speaker 1: if we had a hundred tapes of one hundred phone

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Speaker 1: calls by American presidents to foreign officials, maybe it's more

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Speaker 1: polite and more subtle. But we're always trading and making

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Speaker 1: demands and pressuring them to do stuff. It's just supposed

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Speaker 1: to be stuff in the national interest, not for the

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Speaker 1: personal gain of the president. Correct. And that's almost certainly

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Speaker 1: what Joe Biden had actually done here, which is that

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Speaker 1: Biden also told the Ukrainians that they couldn't get American

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Speaker 1: money unless they dealt with corruption. It appears, by all

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Speaker 1: accounts of what happened back then, that Biden and virtually

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Speaker 1: every other Western government was pressuring for the firing of

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Speaker 1: a prosecutor who was famously corrupt and who was not

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Speaker 1: in fact investigating Hunter Biden or anyone else. And we're

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Speaker 1: going to come to him later. This is the prosecutor Lutzenko,

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Speaker 1: who is going to be a non trivial player. He's

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Speaker 1: not yet a household name, but the guy's on the

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Speaker 1: edge of becoming a household name. Is this inquiry proceeds,

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Speaker 1: But we're going to come to him in a little while. So, okay,

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Speaker 1: with all that build up, let's imagine now you know

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Speaker 1: you were a prosecutor. Now you defend people for a living,

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Speaker 1: alleged criminals. President calls you and says, take the case

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Speaker 1: and leave it aside. Whether you would take the case,

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Speaker 1: imagine you've taken the case. What's the defense that you

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Speaker 1: would raise for the president? What's the interpretation you would

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Speaker 1: offer to get him off the hook here? Well, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to answer that a slightly different way. The interpretation

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Speaker 1: that Republicans have been offering. I'm not sure it's the

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Speaker 1: one I would offer, but that they have been offering

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Speaker 1: is that, well, there's no literal quid pro quo when

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Speaker 1: you look in this conversation. Never once does someone say

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Speaker 1: if then that's a bad defense because in court those

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Speaker 1: defenses fail. I think that's a bad defense because it

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Speaker 1: will fail. Yes, But what is clever about it, I guess,

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Speaker 1: is that ultimately this is a political not a legal argument,

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Speaker 1: and it sort of has the veneer of believability to it.

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Speaker 1: What's I think plausible deniability? Sort of, Yeah, it's somewhat plausible.

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Speaker 1: It sounds legalistic, right, And they're going down the road

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Speaker 1: of well, if this isn't a crime, then you can't impeach,

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Speaker 1: which is also not true. Also not true, but but

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Speaker 1: something that is probably their best argument here. What would

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Speaker 1: you do if it were up to you, if you

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Speaker 1: could design the defense from scratch, I think you'd want

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Speaker 1: to start going down the path of this was a

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Speaker 1: misunderstanding and that's not what he meant. The problem here

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Speaker 1: is that the President has made a whole bunch of

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Speaker 1: other statements that support the idea that this is in

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Speaker 1: fact what he meant, and Giuliani is running around making

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of statements that also make it clear

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Speaker 1: this is what he meant. So they're a little far

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Speaker 1: down that road to try to reframe what this conversation

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Speaker 1: was about. I had thought that one thing they could

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Speaker 1: try to say about this misunderstanding, and maybe this is

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Speaker 1: a little bit too inside the weeds of the phone

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Speaker 1: call is that all Trump intended to do in the

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Speaker 1: call was to bring up the investigation of CrowdStrike, and

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Speaker 1: he never intended to bring up the Hunter Biden investigation.

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Speaker 1: And he only did because when he brought up the CrowdStrike,

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Speaker 1: which is the thing that he brings up right after

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Speaker 1: the javelin missiles are mentioned. Zelenski then misunderstood and immediately

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Speaker 1: brought up Juliani, who was primarily working on the Biden thing,

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Speaker 1: and then Trump kind of went with it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that may not be a great defense that I wasn't

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Speaker 1: going to commit a crime, but then he offered me

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Speaker 1: the opportunity, because if you think about it, in the

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Speaker 1: call with the Australian Leader which has come up subsequently,

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Speaker 1: it seems like they only talked about investigation of the

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen collusion investigation. They didn't talk about Biden, which

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Speaker 1: I guess is partly because Biden did everything to do

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Speaker 1: with US Rail. So the problem I have with that

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Speaker 1: defense is that whether or not he intended to bring

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Speaker 1: up the Giuliani thing, the core problem with having brought

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Speaker 1: up the Giuliani thing is that it blew apart the

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Speaker 1: plausible deniability that they sort of had about what Giuliani

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Speaker 1: was doing, which is that Giuliani was freelancing. Hearing suddenly

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Speaker 1: that the President one hundred percent knows what Giuliani is

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Speaker 1: doing and is telling Zelenski to follow it is actually

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Speaker 1: the worst possible thing he could say, whether it was

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Speaker 1: on purpose or not, because It essentially brings Giuliani's activities

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Speaker 1: and numerous statements into the picture and makes it almost

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Speaker 1: impossible to deny that he was doing it at the

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Speaker 1: direction of the president. It's a fantastically good point, and

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Speaker 1: it reminds me of something that I wanted to ask

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Speaker 1: you about about Giuliani. So I had the intuition somewhere

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Speaker 1: over the last few months that Rudy Giuliani had become

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's new Michael Cohen. Like when he was just

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Speaker 1: a the Trump organization, not the president, Donald Trump used

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Speaker 1: Michael Cohen as his quote unquote lawyer. We now know

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Speaker 1: that a lot of what they did wasn't exactly legal,

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Speaker 1: but used Michael Cohen to be his fixer, to go

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Speaker 1: around doing the stuff that he didn't want to have

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Speaker 1: his hands on himself. And then he lost Michael Cohen

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Speaker 1: after Cohen was convicted of a crime, and he needed

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Speaker 1: someone to play this role, and it's like Giuliani stepped

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Speaker 1: into the role. So first, I want to know, do

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Speaker 1: you think that analogy makes some sense here? And second,

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Speaker 1: is it different insofar as by owning all what Giuliani

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Speaker 1: has done, Trump has broken the benefit of using your

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Speaker 1: lawyer to go around and do your dirty work for you.

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Speaker 1: I think there's a lot to that analogy. So I

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Speaker 1: like that. I think that yes, he has broken it,

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Speaker 1: and he's actually broken it in two ways. One has

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Speaker 1: nothing to do with Giuliani being a lawyer. Right, Every

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Speaker 1: politician has someone whose job is to some extend or

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Speaker 1: another smooth things over. Most politicians, I think, are smart

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Speaker 1: enough to know that they and that person should have

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Speaker 1: a certain distance between them so that they can not

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Speaker 1: just plausibly deny, but actually be able to that they

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Speaker 1: know what that person did. Trump doesn't operate that way, right.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't have that level of subtlety even to be

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Speaker 1: able to say the sort of you know, who will

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Speaker 1: rid me of this troublesome priest and then let someone

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Speaker 1: do it without actually ordering someone to do it. I

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Speaker 1: feel confident that Trump would probably just order someone to

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Speaker 1: get rid of the troublesome priest, right He's instead of saying,

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Speaker 1: who will rid me the troublesome priests, He's like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that Beckett guy, someone shoot him because that's the kind

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Speaker 1: of thing. So, okay, let's turn now to what's about

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Speaker 1: to happen, to the full dress impeachment inquiry. Followed by

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Speaker 1: it seems very likely to me a full dress impeachment

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Speaker 1: vote in the House, and then something will turn to

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Speaker 1: the question in a moment of what in the Senate?

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Speaker 1: So what are your bookmaker's odds that Donald Trump will

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Speaker 1: be impeached by the House of Representatives, that a majority

429
00:21:57,276 --> 00:21:59,236
Speaker 1: of members of the House of Representatives will vote to

430
00:21:59,276 --> 00:22:01,676
Speaker 1: impeach him and send the case to the Senate. I

431
00:22:01,716 --> 00:22:03,636
Speaker 1: think we're on a glide path where that is all

432
00:22:03,636 --> 00:22:07,716
Speaker 1: but certain at this point. Okay, And what quirks or

433
00:22:07,836 --> 00:22:11,316
Speaker 1: surprises do you expect along the way to that vote?

434
00:22:11,316 --> 00:22:13,836
Speaker 1: I mean, could they vote on that, you know, in

435
00:22:13,876 --> 00:22:16,556
Speaker 1: a matter of weeks? Does it necessarily have to take

436
00:22:16,596 --> 00:22:19,116
Speaker 1: months where they work through lots of details. Will the

437
00:22:19,156 --> 00:22:21,036
Speaker 1: Republicans in the House try to push back at all

438
00:22:21,076 --> 00:22:23,356
Speaker 1: since they don't have the votes? How do you imagine

439
00:22:23,356 --> 00:22:25,756
Speaker 1: that playing itself out? Well? I think Republicans in the

440
00:22:25,756 --> 00:22:28,316
Speaker 1: House have very little power because the majority in the

441
00:22:28,316 --> 00:22:31,476
Speaker 1: House has all the power. So aside from making outrageous

442
00:22:31,476 --> 00:22:34,516
Speaker 1: statements or asking a bunch of questions that are self

443
00:22:34,556 --> 00:22:36,956
Speaker 1: serving in some way, there's not a whole lot Republicans

444
00:22:36,956 --> 00:22:39,476
Speaker 1: can do in the House. So I don't think that

445
00:22:39,476 --> 00:22:41,716
Speaker 1: they will throw in a bunch of roadblocks. I think

446
00:22:41,756 --> 00:22:45,516
Speaker 1: the Trump administration at some point will realize that releasing

447
00:22:45,516 --> 00:22:48,756
Speaker 1: the tape and being as open as they've ever been

448
00:22:48,916 --> 00:22:52,156
Speaker 1: was a terrible mistake, and that they will attempt to

449
00:22:52,196 --> 00:22:55,396
Speaker 1: close the door and stop cooperating. We're already starting to

450
00:22:55,436 --> 00:22:57,796
Speaker 1: see this happening. So then, on this theory, on your theory,

451
00:22:57,796 --> 00:23:00,796
Speaker 1: the Trump administration can start being obstructionists. They can, and

452
00:23:00,836 --> 00:23:03,596
Speaker 1: that runs the clock, right, That runs the clock as

453
00:23:03,596 --> 00:23:06,876
Speaker 1: we get closer and closer and closer to November twenty twenty.

454
00:23:07,316 --> 00:23:09,556
Speaker 1: Why does that benefit them? Isn't it better for them

455
00:23:09,556 --> 00:23:11,836
Speaker 1: to get this all over with quickly? I think that

456
00:23:11,876 --> 00:23:14,276
Speaker 1: there are two ways to look at that. So one

457
00:23:14,436 --> 00:23:16,516
Speaker 1: is get it over with quickly and then they can

458
00:23:16,556 --> 00:23:19,796
Speaker 1: move on right, and that is an advantage, But I

459
00:23:19,796 --> 00:23:23,676
Speaker 1: think it also becomes harder and harder for this process

460
00:23:23,716 --> 00:23:26,036
Speaker 1: to be maintained the closer it gets to the election,

461
00:23:26,356 --> 00:23:28,516
Speaker 1: because it begins to seem absurd that you're trying to

462
00:23:28,556 --> 00:23:30,796
Speaker 1: throw out a president who's about to be voted on

463
00:23:31,436 --> 00:23:35,236
Speaker 1: and may be reelected. Correct. So that's one answer. I

464
00:23:35,236 --> 00:23:38,276
Speaker 1: think the second answer is, look, their concern is not

465
00:23:38,436 --> 00:23:40,556
Speaker 1: ultimately that they're going to get impeached by the House.

466
00:23:40,636 --> 00:23:44,876
Speaker 1: The concern is that ultimately some senators, enough senators turn

467
00:23:44,956 --> 00:23:47,836
Speaker 1: on them that he either gets thrown out of office

468
00:23:47,996 --> 00:23:50,596
Speaker 1: or it becomes impossible to maintain that this is entirely

469
00:23:50,596 --> 00:23:52,916
Speaker 1: a democratic thing. So even if he doesn't get thrown

470
00:23:52,916 --> 00:23:56,236
Speaker 1: out of office, if ten senators, ten Republican senators vote

471
00:23:56,236 --> 00:23:58,676
Speaker 1: with the Democrats, it's a lot harder to paint this

472
00:23:58,796 --> 00:24:01,636
Speaker 1: as only a Democrat could think he did anything wrong? Right,

473
00:24:02,076 --> 00:24:04,636
Speaker 1: so how do you prevent that? And it could be

474
00:24:04,676 --> 00:24:06,436
Speaker 1: that the answer to how you prevent that is you

475
00:24:06,516 --> 00:24:08,836
Speaker 1: make sure where stuff doesn't come out. But it also

476
00:24:08,916 --> 00:24:11,636
Speaker 1: might be that if you look like you're blocking everything,

477
00:24:11,676 --> 00:24:15,476
Speaker 1: that gives some reason for Republicans in the Senate to say, well, gee,

478
00:24:15,876 --> 00:24:18,636
Speaker 1: we think he did obstruct justice or obstruct the inquiries

479
00:24:18,636 --> 00:24:20,756
Speaker 1: of Congress, and that's a reason to vote against him too.

480
00:24:20,916 --> 00:24:22,956
Speaker 1: But to me, it feels like that ship sailed long ago.

481
00:24:23,036 --> 00:24:25,436
Speaker 1: The President's been obstructing Congress for the last year, and

482
00:24:25,516 --> 00:24:27,996
Speaker 1: not a single Republican has complained about it. Right, Is

483
00:24:27,996 --> 00:24:29,956
Speaker 1: there anything you said, We're on a glide path to

484
00:24:30,036 --> 00:24:33,996
Speaker 1: almost certain impeachment. Can you imagine anything that would cause

485
00:24:34,036 --> 00:24:36,956
Speaker 1: the Democrats to say, you know what, you know, maybe

486
00:24:36,956 --> 00:24:39,156
Speaker 1: we shouldn't do this. Let's imagine that polls come in

487
00:24:39,516 --> 00:24:42,036
Speaker 1: that tell the Democrats that a lot of their base

488
00:24:42,476 --> 00:24:45,756
Speaker 1: thinks impeachment is a mistake, because you know, in the

489
00:24:45,876 --> 00:24:49,436
Speaker 1: end it's going to distract the country from the twenty

490
00:24:49,476 --> 00:24:53,276
Speaker 1: twenty election. I don't anticipate that happening. I think there's

491
00:24:53,276 --> 00:24:55,676
Speaker 1: a different set of polls that might create a problem.

492
00:24:55,676 --> 00:24:58,996
Speaker 1: My guess is the Democrat take voters in polls will

493
00:24:59,356 --> 00:25:01,836
Speaker 1: kind of come around on impeachment if they haven't already. Right.

494
00:25:02,196 --> 00:25:03,676
Speaker 1: In fact, I think that voters are going to vote

495
00:25:03,676 --> 00:25:06,076
Speaker 1: against Trump anyway, impeachment or no impeachment, correct, So it

496
00:25:06,076 --> 00:25:08,556
Speaker 1: almost doesn't matter what they think. I think a bigger

497
00:25:08,596 --> 00:25:12,436
Speaker 1: problem is they do rely on certain moderate or Democrats

498
00:25:12,476 --> 00:25:16,236
Speaker 1: from moderate districts, and if those Democrats get cold feet

499
00:25:16,276 --> 00:25:19,436
Speaker 1: about whether or not this is a good idea, then

500
00:25:19,476 --> 00:25:23,876
Speaker 1: I think the impeachment process could run into some rocky waters.

501
00:25:24,036 --> 00:25:27,876
Speaker 1: Can Nancy Pelosi effectively stop the whole thing herself or

502
00:25:27,916 --> 00:25:30,076
Speaker 1: does she need a vote? I mean, is she in

503
00:25:30,076 --> 00:25:33,436
Speaker 1: a situation where Donald Trump says she is no longer

504
00:25:33,436 --> 00:25:35,076
Speaker 1: the Speaker of the House by which she doesn't literally

505
00:25:35,116 --> 00:25:36,676
Speaker 1: means she's not the Speaker of the House. He means

506
00:25:37,036 --> 00:25:38,876
Speaker 1: she doesn't really have the center of power in the

507
00:25:38,916 --> 00:25:41,276
Speaker 1: House anymore. Of the power has shifted to the part

508
00:25:41,276 --> 00:25:43,516
Speaker 1: of the party that's been demanding impeachment, like a lot

509
00:25:43,556 --> 00:25:46,676
Speaker 1: of the presidential candidates have been doing. That is to say,

510
00:25:46,716 --> 00:25:49,676
Speaker 1: to Pelosi's left, is it realistic for her to stop

511
00:25:49,716 --> 00:25:52,436
Speaker 1: it at some point? Could she do it? I think

512
00:25:52,436 --> 00:25:55,076
Speaker 1: it will at this moment. Probably not, But is it

513
00:25:55,116 --> 00:25:57,876
Speaker 1: possible that some set of circumstances or polls could come

514
00:25:57,876 --> 00:26:01,036
Speaker 1: out later. Maybe. But the other option she has is

515
00:26:01,036 --> 00:26:02,556
Speaker 1: she could bring it to a vote and he could lose,

516
00:26:02,996 --> 00:26:05,636
Speaker 1: but that it would only lose if a significant number

517
00:26:05,636 --> 00:26:08,036
Speaker 1: of Democrats voted against impeachment. And it seems to me

518
00:26:08,556 --> 00:26:11,396
Speaker 1: that even a Democrat in a moderate district can't get

519
00:26:11,436 --> 00:26:13,756
Speaker 1: away with voting against impeachment at this point. I mean,

520
00:26:13,756 --> 00:26:15,636
Speaker 1: how can you get up in the House of Representatives

521
00:26:15,676 --> 00:26:18,436
Speaker 1: as a Democrat and cast any vote that is perceived

522
00:26:18,476 --> 00:26:21,276
Speaker 1: as a vote for Donald Trump. You'll be primaried and

523
00:26:21,396 --> 00:26:23,396
Speaker 1: it'll be all over for you, no matter where you're from.

524
00:26:24,076 --> 00:26:26,036
Speaker 1: I think you're right, and thus it's a little hard

525
00:26:26,076 --> 00:26:29,036
Speaker 1: to understand how So bottom line, impeachment is coming. Okay,

526
00:26:29,076 --> 00:26:32,196
Speaker 1: So once impeachment comes, according to the Constitution, we're supposed

527
00:26:32,196 --> 00:26:34,596
Speaker 1: to move to a trial in the Senate. And miss

528
00:26:34,676 --> 00:26:37,156
Speaker 1: McConnell has said, don't worry, I will hold a trial

529
00:26:37,156 --> 00:26:38,836
Speaker 1: in the Senate. But as for how long it's going

530
00:26:38,876 --> 00:26:42,556
Speaker 1: to last, he said, that's another matter altogether. What's the

531
00:26:42,716 --> 00:26:46,596
Speaker 1: fastest and the most minimalistic proceeding that McConnell think can

532
00:26:46,636 --> 00:26:48,756
Speaker 1: get away with in the Senate. And remember, Chief Justice

533
00:26:48,796 --> 00:26:51,076
Speaker 1: John Roberts will be there presiding, but he's just one guy.

534
00:26:51,116 --> 00:26:52,796
Speaker 1: The rest of the Supreme Court doesn't come with him.

535
00:26:52,876 --> 00:26:56,196
Speaker 1: I remember actually watching the Clinton impeachments when I was

536
00:26:56,196 --> 00:26:57,596
Speaker 1: a law crook at the Supreme Court. That so I

537
00:26:57,636 --> 00:27:00,556
Speaker 1: got a ticket, and you know, Chief Justice Ranquist was

538
00:27:00,596 --> 00:27:03,556
Speaker 1: just sort of sitting there in his fancy robe and

539
00:27:04,116 --> 00:27:05,876
Speaker 1: he was like an ornament to the room. But he

540
00:27:05,876 --> 00:27:08,396
Speaker 1: didn't really get to say or do almost anything. So

541
00:27:08,436 --> 00:27:10,556
Speaker 1: I think this is probably more in your area than mine.

542
00:27:10,596 --> 00:27:12,956
Speaker 1: But my understanding is that they could just go ahead

543
00:27:12,956 --> 00:27:15,516
Speaker 1: and have a vote on day one should we impeach

544
00:27:15,556 --> 00:27:17,956
Speaker 1: the president. I don't think they could get away with that.

545
00:27:18,036 --> 00:27:22,436
Speaker 1: I mean to my mind, the Constitution clearly imagines a

546
00:27:22,516 --> 00:27:25,716
Speaker 1: process in which the impeachment is recommended, like an indictment,

547
00:27:25,956 --> 00:27:29,276
Speaker 1: and then there's some kind of proceeding or discussion or

548
00:27:29,396 --> 00:27:33,356
Speaker 1: trial in front of the Senate. And you know, historically

549
00:27:33,676 --> 00:27:36,716
Speaker 1: trials in Britain in parliament, trials for impeachment were a

550
00:27:36,756 --> 00:27:39,516
Speaker 1: serious undertaking and they went on for years. You know.

551
00:27:39,556 --> 00:27:42,196
Speaker 1: The most famous and influential impeachment that the Framers knew

552
00:27:42,196 --> 00:27:44,516
Speaker 1: about was the impeachment of Warren Hastings, who had been

553
00:27:45,076 --> 00:27:47,876
Speaker 1: the governor in India effectively, and he was impeached in

554
00:27:47,916 --> 00:27:50,076
Speaker 1: the seventeen seventies, and that trial went on for I

555
00:27:50,076 --> 00:27:53,356
Speaker 1: want to say seven years, you know. I mean it

556
00:27:53,396 --> 00:27:55,556
Speaker 1: was like you know, front page news for a lot

557
00:27:55,596 --> 00:27:57,956
Speaker 1: of that time too, And the Framers knew all about

558
00:27:57,956 --> 00:28:00,556
Speaker 1: it because it was in the newspapers. They contemplated some

559
00:28:00,676 --> 00:28:03,996
Speaker 1: kind of a trial like process, but couldn't they decide

560
00:28:04,036 --> 00:28:06,516
Speaker 1: that they're going to let the the house managers of

561
00:28:06,556 --> 00:28:09,716
Speaker 1: the impeachment come in, make their presentation, put the call

562
00:28:09,756 --> 00:28:11,956
Speaker 1: into evidence, and then vote on whether or not that

563
00:28:12,036 --> 00:28:14,516
Speaker 1: is sufficient grounds for impeachment. And a bunch of Republican

564
00:28:14,556 --> 00:28:16,716
Speaker 1: senators come out and say, even if we assume this

565
00:28:16,796 --> 00:28:18,876
Speaker 1: is all true, I don't think it's grounds for impeachment.

566
00:28:19,076 --> 00:28:21,276
Speaker 1: They vote and it's over right, sort of like a

567
00:28:21,316 --> 00:28:24,996
Speaker 1: directed verdict process correct in a courtroom. Yeah, I think

568
00:28:25,356 --> 00:28:27,556
Speaker 1: they might be able to get away with that. They

569
00:28:27,556 --> 00:28:30,516
Speaker 1: won't want to go down in history. I think as

570
00:28:30,516 --> 00:28:34,156
Speaker 1: the people who made the impeachment process look like a sham,

571
00:28:34,196 --> 00:28:36,916
Speaker 1: they may not have to hear lots of witnesses. I

572
00:28:37,556 --> 00:28:39,756
Speaker 1: get you there, I don't know. I think there's going

573
00:28:39,836 --> 00:28:42,276
Speaker 1: to be tremendous pressure on them to hold something that

574
00:28:42,436 --> 00:28:45,036
Speaker 1: looks a little bit like a trial for at least

575
00:28:45,156 --> 00:28:47,516
Speaker 1: a few days. I mean, you know, when we go

576
00:28:47,556 --> 00:28:50,476
Speaker 1: after a Supreme Court nominee that already takes a week

577
00:28:50,476 --> 00:28:53,076
Speaker 1: of hearings. I have a hard time imagining them spending

578
00:28:53,196 --> 00:28:56,036
Speaker 1: less time on it than they would would on that maybe.

579
00:28:56,116 --> 00:28:57,796
Speaker 1: I mean, I think formally, I guess they could do it,

580
00:28:57,796 --> 00:28:59,116
Speaker 1: but I doubt if they would really think they could

581
00:28:59,156 --> 00:29:01,796
Speaker 1: get away with it. But so what difference does that make?

582
00:29:01,876 --> 00:29:04,116
Speaker 1: So they have a sham trial of one to five

583
00:29:04,196 --> 00:29:07,276
Speaker 1: days at the end of which they vote any of

584
00:29:07,276 --> 00:29:11,036
Speaker 1: they acquitment and either a bunch of those senators from

585
00:29:11,356 --> 00:29:15,796
Speaker 1: states that are purple, I guess, or blue decide to

586
00:29:15,836 --> 00:29:18,156
Speaker 1: vote with the president or they vote against, and it

587
00:29:18,196 --> 00:29:21,236
Speaker 1: doesn't matter because there still are enough enough numbers to

588
00:29:21,236 --> 00:29:24,716
Speaker 1: get to an actual removal. So that's assuming that the

589
00:29:24,716 --> 00:29:27,236
Speaker 1: tide doesn't break. Like there's also the possibility that the

590
00:29:27,276 --> 00:29:30,516
Speaker 1: tide breaks and at some point Republicans say we'd be

591
00:29:30,516 --> 00:29:32,636
Speaker 1: better off with Pens. So let's talk about that. What

592
00:29:32,716 --> 00:29:35,156
Speaker 1: does it take for the tide to break? And then

593
00:29:35,196 --> 00:29:36,916
Speaker 1: we'll come to the question of what are the odds

594
00:29:36,956 --> 00:29:38,716
Speaker 1: of the tide breaking? But what would it take. What

595
00:29:38,796 --> 00:29:40,676
Speaker 1: are the kinds of facts that would have to enter

596
00:29:40,676 --> 00:29:43,076
Speaker 1: into the mix in your view that would lead enough

597
00:29:43,116 --> 00:29:46,276
Speaker 1: Republicans to say we're better off with pens. I'm actually

598
00:29:46,356 --> 00:29:48,316
Speaker 1: of the view that the answer to that has nothing

599
00:29:48,356 --> 00:29:50,076
Speaker 1: to do with the facts. I think the answer to

600
00:29:50,116 --> 00:29:52,996
Speaker 1: that probably has something to do with the polls. Well,

601
00:29:53,036 --> 00:29:55,436
Speaker 1: what we'll move the polls? That is the question. And

602
00:29:55,596 --> 00:29:58,076
Speaker 1: I don't know, say the President called a dozen countries

603
00:29:58,396 --> 00:30:00,476
Speaker 1: and put pressure on them, and maybe doesn't this too much,

604
00:30:00,516 --> 00:30:02,636
Speaker 1: but three or four other countries, and we as a

605
00:30:02,676 --> 00:30:05,196
Speaker 1: gradual drip, drip drip, we find out that the President

606
00:30:05,236 --> 00:30:08,036
Speaker 1: has been going around pressuring lots of countries, essentially to

607
00:30:08,116 --> 00:30:10,996
Speaker 1: make up evidence to help him in his political campaign.

608
00:30:11,916 --> 00:30:14,436
Speaker 1: My general view of the moment we're in is that

609
00:30:14,876 --> 00:30:17,636
Speaker 1: as people say, nothing matters, and what that seems to

610
00:30:17,676 --> 00:30:20,596
Speaker 1: mean is that no matter what happens, the polls are

611
00:30:20,596 --> 00:30:23,916
Speaker 1: basically steady. Somewhere between fifty to fifty three percent of

612
00:30:23,916 --> 00:30:28,916
Speaker 1: Americans think the president is disapprove of his performance performance

613
00:30:29,116 --> 00:30:32,196
Speaker 1: and something between, you know, around forty one to forty

614
00:30:32,196 --> 00:30:34,796
Speaker 1: three percent approve. My guess is that no matter what

615
00:30:34,916 --> 00:30:37,916
Speaker 1: comes out, that will basically be true. Now, what happens

616
00:30:37,996 --> 00:30:40,956
Speaker 1: if some of the people in that gap, right the

617
00:30:41,396 --> 00:30:43,956
Speaker 1: five to whatever percent it is in that gap, you

618
00:30:43,996 --> 00:30:46,116
Speaker 1: know what happens if they come around and say, you

619
00:30:46,156 --> 00:30:48,956
Speaker 1: know what, I don't like this either. So I don't

620
00:30:48,996 --> 00:30:50,516
Speaker 1: know what the answer to that is, but I'm not

621
00:30:50,556 --> 00:30:52,796
Speaker 1: sure it would matter. So if you're right about that,

622
00:30:52,876 --> 00:30:54,716
Speaker 1: I mean, I hear everything you're saying, and it seems

623
00:30:55,116 --> 00:30:59,476
Speaker 1: logically correct. If that's the case, there's almost no chance

624
00:30:59,996 --> 00:31:03,476
Speaker 1: of the tide breaking and Republicans voting to remove It's

625
00:31:03,556 --> 00:31:07,316
Speaker 1: close to a zero chance because as you say that, core,

626
00:31:07,796 --> 00:31:09,436
Speaker 1: you know they could hear, I mean, may not be

627
00:31:09,556 --> 00:31:11,396
Speaker 1: quite the Trump position that they could hear that he

628
00:31:11,396 --> 00:31:13,956
Speaker 1: shot someone at Fifth Avenue, but it's pretty close to

629
00:31:14,036 --> 00:31:16,836
Speaker 1: saying that they wouldn't, you know, they wouldn't abandon him.

630
00:31:16,876 --> 00:31:19,356
Speaker 1: And if that's the case, if you're a Republican, there's

631
00:31:19,396 --> 00:31:21,956
Speaker 1: no way you're better off going into the election with Pence,

632
00:31:22,316 --> 00:31:25,116
Speaker 1: because we know that that forty one percent base of

633
00:31:25,196 --> 00:31:29,196
Speaker 1: Republicans like Trump, but we have no idea if they

634
00:31:29,196 --> 00:31:32,156
Speaker 1: feel as strongly about Pence, and Pence certainly can't rally

635
00:31:32,156 --> 00:31:34,916
Speaker 1: the base the way Trump can, especially if the Republicans

636
00:31:34,956 --> 00:31:38,756
Speaker 1: have somehow admitted via removal that there's something wrong with Trump.

637
00:31:38,996 --> 00:31:41,996
Speaker 1: So in that scenario, you're actually saying this is a

638
00:31:42,076 --> 00:31:44,756
Speaker 1: kind of for ordained conclusion, like Trump is going to

639
00:31:44,796 --> 00:31:47,316
Speaker 1: be acquitted by the Senate full stop. Well I'm not

640
00:31:47,396 --> 00:31:49,316
Speaker 1: quite saying that, because I think there's one exception I'll

641
00:31:49,316 --> 00:31:51,236
Speaker 1: come to in a second. But I want to respond

642
00:31:51,236 --> 00:31:53,436
Speaker 1: to your point about Pence first, which is I actually

643
00:31:53,476 --> 00:31:57,036
Speaker 1: agree with you that if they Republicans vote to impeach Trump,

644
00:31:57,436 --> 00:32:00,356
Speaker 1: they are all but conceding the next election. The reason

645
00:32:00,436 --> 00:32:04,236
Speaker 1: to do that might be that they're better off letting

646
00:32:04,276 --> 00:32:07,596
Speaker 1: the next election happen and not as a landslide and

647
00:32:07,636 --> 00:32:09,996
Speaker 1: then regrouping over the cot of the next four years,

648
00:32:10,076 --> 00:32:13,036
Speaker 1: essentially fast forwarding the post Trump era. One interesting about

649
00:32:13,076 --> 00:32:15,156
Speaker 1: this is it shows you that the timing really matters.

650
00:32:15,276 --> 00:32:18,036
Speaker 1: So when Republicans signaled that they were going to abandon

651
00:32:18,196 --> 00:32:21,396
Speaker 1: Richard Nixon and he therefore stepped down rather than been

652
00:32:21,436 --> 00:32:24,516
Speaker 1: removed from office, it was still early enough for them

653
00:32:24,516 --> 00:32:28,196
Speaker 1: to think that once Gerald Ford became president they would

654
00:32:28,236 --> 00:32:31,756
Speaker 1: have a shot at the nineteen seventy six election. It

655
00:32:31,796 --> 00:32:33,756
Speaker 1: was still wasn't clear at that point. It was still

656
00:32:33,836 --> 00:32:36,636
Speaker 1: really late seventy four by the time that happened, and

657
00:32:36,796 --> 00:32:38,756
Speaker 1: we still didn't know who the Democratic nominee was going

658
00:32:38,836 --> 00:32:41,476
Speaker 1: to be, and it was still conceivable that Ford could win.

659
00:32:41,556 --> 00:32:43,396
Speaker 1: And Ford didn't beat Carter, but he put up a

660
00:32:43,396 --> 00:32:48,196
Speaker 1: reasonable show considering that a Republican president had just been impeached.

661
00:32:48,756 --> 00:32:51,156
Speaker 1: Now the timing is different because we're so much later

662
00:32:51,236 --> 00:32:54,956
Speaker 1: in the cycle. So it seems very, as you say,

663
00:32:55,076 --> 00:32:58,116
Speaker 1: hard to imagine the Republicans thinking we removed Trump and

664
00:32:58,156 --> 00:33:01,356
Speaker 1: then we go on to win the election. So what's

665
00:33:01,396 --> 00:33:04,836
Speaker 1: the scenario where things could genuinely So this isn't probably

666
00:33:04,836 --> 00:33:07,476
Speaker 1: a somewhat unsatisfying answer, but I do think that when

667
00:33:08,516 --> 00:33:11,716
Speaker 1: these kinds of regimes, if I may say that, crumble,

668
00:33:12,076 --> 00:33:15,716
Speaker 1: they crumble instantly. They don't crumble bit by bit. So

669
00:33:15,796 --> 00:33:17,996
Speaker 1: what I don't think we're going to see happen is

670
00:33:18,596 --> 00:33:21,836
Speaker 1: Republican senators coming out in onesie twosies saying, you know,

671
00:33:22,436 --> 00:33:25,476
Speaker 1: other than maybe Mitt Romney, you know, saying I disapprove

672
00:33:25,516 --> 00:33:28,276
Speaker 1: of this. I think that there would have to be

673
00:33:28,396 --> 00:33:30,556
Speaker 1: in one fell swoop, in one fell swoop, But what's

674
00:33:30,556 --> 00:33:32,396
Speaker 1: the swoop? What do we need to hear? I mean,

675
00:33:32,556 --> 00:33:34,716
Speaker 1: let's imagine that one of these calls, or maybe on

676
00:33:34,756 --> 00:33:37,516
Speaker 1: this tape, we find out that the president literally said,

677
00:33:37,636 --> 00:33:40,876
Speaker 1: quid pro quo, you do this, I do this? Would

678
00:33:40,876 --> 00:33:42,916
Speaker 1: that do it? I would like to think the answer

679
00:33:42,956 --> 00:33:45,356
Speaker 1: to that is yes. But I honestly don't know what

680
00:33:45,476 --> 00:33:47,636
Speaker 1: else could what else could could bring us to that

681
00:33:47,676 --> 00:33:50,516
Speaker 1: point of collapse, just some out of the blue new

682
00:33:50,596 --> 00:33:52,796
Speaker 1: factory that comes out. I mean, you know one thing

683
00:33:52,796 --> 00:33:54,276
Speaker 1: that makes me think there could be something like this

684
00:33:54,316 --> 00:33:56,596
Speaker 1: out there is looking at how Donald Trump is reacting

685
00:33:56,636 --> 00:34:00,276
Speaker 1: in real time to this inquiry. He doesn't seem like

686
00:34:00,316 --> 00:34:03,196
Speaker 1: he's unrattled. Of course, he's escalating his rhetoric. You would

687
00:34:03,196 --> 00:34:07,316
Speaker 1: have expected that under all circumstances. But he seems unhinges

688
00:34:07,356 --> 00:34:08,956
Speaker 1: in a word we can really use because he's often

689
00:34:09,236 --> 00:34:12,076
Speaker 1: rhetoric like this. But the way he's kind of lashing

690
00:34:12,116 --> 00:34:16,276
Speaker 1: out in this non planned instinctive and it seems to

691
00:34:16,316 --> 00:34:19,036
Speaker 1: me kind of threatened way, does make me wonder if

692
00:34:19,116 --> 00:34:22,716
Speaker 1: he thinks that he's in trouble here. I agree, and

693
00:34:22,756 --> 00:34:26,756
Speaker 1: maybe maybe that what causes the damn to break is

694
00:34:27,636 --> 00:34:30,396
Speaker 1: a sense that he's out of control. I mean, is

695
00:34:30,436 --> 00:34:32,276
Speaker 1: there something that he could do, maybe not even an

696
00:34:32,316 --> 00:34:34,716
Speaker 1: unknown fact, but a thing yet to happen, you know,

697
00:34:34,836 --> 00:34:37,916
Speaker 1: he launches a war against Iran or something. He's not

698
00:34:37,916 --> 00:34:39,956
Speaker 1: going to do that in what seems like a transparent

699
00:34:39,996 --> 00:34:42,956
Speaker 1: effort to change the subject that horrifies people. I mean,

700
00:34:42,956 --> 00:34:44,876
Speaker 1: we think of the Wag the Dog, Snarah. That's a

701
00:34:44,916 --> 00:34:48,036
Speaker 1: movie called Wag the Dog. And then Bill Clinton, in

702
00:34:48,076 --> 00:34:51,636
Speaker 1: the middle of his impeachment, actually did commence the bombing

703
00:34:51,836 --> 00:34:55,276
Speaker 1: of Serbia over a Cusso bombing of Serbia over a

704
00:34:55,316 --> 00:34:58,996
Speaker 1: cussovo and that wasn't enough to get him removed from office.

705
00:34:59,196 --> 00:35:00,836
Speaker 1: So I don't I don't think that a war would

706
00:35:00,876 --> 00:35:02,436
Speaker 1: would do it. And I also don't think don Trump

707
00:35:02,476 --> 00:35:05,236
Speaker 1: wants to go to war, and it's nothing. On Twitter.

708
00:35:05,356 --> 00:35:08,556
Speaker 1: He could tweet literally anything and it will not suffice

709
00:35:08,556 --> 00:35:11,796
Speaker 1: to get him removed by Republicans. It does seem that way, Okay,

710
00:35:11,836 --> 00:35:15,036
Speaker 1: So we think that we're hard pressed to come up

711
00:35:15,036 --> 00:35:18,236
Speaker 1: with a scenario where Trump would appear to be so

712
00:35:18,276 --> 00:35:20,436
Speaker 1: far over the edge that he would be removed. I

713
00:35:20,436 --> 00:35:22,116
Speaker 1: just want to add a little footnote here before I

714
00:35:22,116 --> 00:35:24,316
Speaker 1: turn to the grand question of what history is going

715
00:35:24,356 --> 00:35:26,876
Speaker 1: to say about all of this, And that little footnote

716
00:35:26,996 --> 00:35:30,836
Speaker 1: is it's quirky, but it's kind of interesting. In principle,

717
00:35:30,876 --> 00:35:33,796
Speaker 1: there is a scenario where Trump could be impeached and

718
00:35:33,916 --> 00:35:38,316
Speaker 1: removed and still run for reelection and win and become

719
00:35:38,356 --> 00:35:41,596
Speaker 1: president again. And the reason for that is a constitutional quirk.

720
00:35:41,796 --> 00:35:43,916
Speaker 1: So in the clause of the Constitution that says what

721
00:35:43,996 --> 00:35:46,396
Speaker 1: happens if you're impeached, it says there's two things that

722
00:35:46,436 --> 00:35:49,996
Speaker 1: can happen to you. You can be removed and you

723
00:35:50,036 --> 00:35:53,116
Speaker 1: can be disqualified from holding any office of trust under

724
00:35:53,116 --> 00:35:56,436
Speaker 1: the United States. Now, under traditional interpretation of impeachment, it's

725
00:35:56,476 --> 00:36:00,516
Speaker 1: not enough to be removed for the disqualification principle to

726
00:36:00,676 --> 00:36:04,036
Speaker 1: kick in. Rather, Congress has to do two things. That's

727
00:36:04,076 --> 00:36:06,276
Speaker 1: to the Senate has to both vote to remove you

728
00:36:06,636 --> 00:36:10,036
Speaker 1: and separately vote to disqualify you, and almost all cases

729
00:36:10,036 --> 00:36:11,996
Speaker 1: of impeachment they only do the former. There actually are

730
00:36:12,036 --> 00:36:15,436
Speaker 1: a few cases where they've done both, but if they don't,

731
00:36:15,756 --> 00:36:17,516
Speaker 1: you can get back involved, and so, in fact there

732
00:36:17,596 --> 00:36:21,036
Speaker 1: is I was amazed to discover this. A sitting representative

733
00:36:21,076 --> 00:36:22,516
Speaker 1: in Congress right now, a member of the House of

734
00:36:22,556 --> 00:36:26,356
Speaker 1: Representatives who was a federal judge, was impeached and removed

735
00:36:26,396 --> 00:36:29,876
Speaker 1: by the Senate, ran for Congress, got elected to Congress,

736
00:36:29,916 --> 00:36:32,916
Speaker 1: and has been serving in Congress ever since. So Donald

737
00:36:32,916 --> 00:36:37,076
Speaker 1: Trump could, in theory, be impeached and removed, run and win.

738
00:36:37,756 --> 00:36:40,236
Speaker 1: I know that's a kind of far out scenario, but

739
00:36:40,276 --> 00:36:43,836
Speaker 1: it doesn't seem out of bounds to me. I have

740
00:36:43,996 --> 00:36:46,916
Speaker 1: to think that if we reach the point where Republicans

741
00:36:46,996 --> 00:36:48,876
Speaker 1: in the Senate are willing to vote to remove him

742
00:36:48,916 --> 00:36:51,436
Speaker 1: from office, the last thing they'll want is the nightmare

743
00:36:51,476 --> 00:36:53,476
Speaker 1: of him turning around and running again. So you think

744
00:36:53,516 --> 00:36:56,276
Speaker 1: they would actually then put in the disqualification thing for

745
00:36:56,316 --> 00:36:58,436
Speaker 1: their own sake, for their own sake, so he doesn't

746
00:36:58,436 --> 00:37:02,116
Speaker 1: come back after them. Yeah, I guess, I guess that's right. Okay,

747
00:37:02,636 --> 00:37:06,916
Speaker 1: the view of history for a long time. In this presidency,

748
00:37:07,716 --> 00:37:11,356
Speaker 1: there's been a debate why, a debate among Democrats saying,

749
00:37:12,076 --> 00:37:13,836
Speaker 1: you know, should we impeach or should we not impeach?

750
00:37:13,876 --> 00:37:15,636
Speaker 1: We've got enough evidence to impeach. It might be a

751
00:37:15,636 --> 00:37:18,956
Speaker 1: political mistakes. Weighed on Muller, a lot of shilly shalling

752
00:37:18,956 --> 00:37:23,796
Speaker 1: around this issue. Now things seem to have changed, and

753
00:37:24,196 --> 00:37:27,116
Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi's answer, at least when she's spoken about it publicly,

754
00:37:27,196 --> 00:37:28,916
Speaker 1: is it's not that this is so much worse than

755
00:37:28,956 --> 00:37:32,196
Speaker 1: what Trump has done before. This is just clear and explainable.

756
00:37:32,876 --> 00:37:35,276
Speaker 1: When historians look back on this period and ask why

757
00:37:35,276 --> 00:37:38,076
Speaker 1: didn impeachment happen? Now, is that going to be a

758
00:37:38,116 --> 00:37:41,836
Speaker 1: sufficient answer for them. I suspect that the answer to

759
00:37:41,876 --> 00:37:43,836
Speaker 1: that will depend a lot on what happens in the

760
00:37:43,876 --> 00:37:47,956
Speaker 1: next year if Donald Trump is reelected, assuming he survives

761
00:37:47,956 --> 00:37:51,156
Speaker 1: this impeachment scandal and he gets reelected, which, by the way,

762
00:37:51,516 --> 00:37:53,596
Speaker 1: still the upshot of our conversation is that the most

763
00:37:53,636 --> 00:37:56,516
Speaker 1: probable event is that he survives by far, and that

764
00:37:56,556 --> 00:37:58,316
Speaker 1: there's a reasonable chance. I think we both agree that

765
00:37:58,356 --> 00:38:01,796
Speaker 1: he'll get reelected, correct, and if those things happen, I

766
00:38:01,956 --> 00:38:04,676
Speaker 1: think that this will be seen as you know, one

767
00:38:04,756 --> 00:38:07,356
Speaker 1: step in the process of the dismantling of the constitution,

768
00:38:08,116 --> 00:38:09,796
Speaker 1: But all of that will end on what he does

769
00:38:09,796 --> 00:38:12,036
Speaker 1: in his second term. I assume that it will be

770
00:38:12,076 --> 00:38:14,116
Speaker 1: even more outrageous things than he did in his first term,

771
00:38:14,116 --> 00:38:18,116
Speaker 1: because they'll have even fewer constraints then if however, because

772
00:38:18,156 --> 00:38:19,916
Speaker 1: he will have been impeached and it'll be like, I mean,

773
00:38:19,956 --> 00:38:21,996
Speaker 1: we know that the day after the Moll investigation was over,

774
00:38:22,196 --> 00:38:24,756
Speaker 1: he called Zelenski, So what's it going to be like

775
00:38:24,796 --> 00:38:26,716
Speaker 1: if he's been impeached and not removed, he's really going

776
00:38:26,796 --> 00:38:29,396
Speaker 1: to feel like and one reelection and one relection. Maybe

777
00:38:29,836 --> 00:38:32,876
Speaker 1: isn't hoping to serve another term after that, although who knows, right,

778
00:38:33,276 --> 00:38:36,036
Speaker 1: I think that at that point all bets are off,

779
00:38:36,436 --> 00:38:39,556
Speaker 1: and I think it will then become a step in

780
00:38:39,596 --> 00:38:43,596
Speaker 1: the process of the dismantling of what had been our

781
00:38:43,636 --> 00:38:46,676
Speaker 1: system of constitutional government. Maybe maybe on a path to

782
00:38:46,676 --> 00:38:48,596
Speaker 1: some other system, but it's not gonna be the same system.

783
00:38:48,796 --> 00:38:51,836
Speaker 1: So here's a big question in that story, that incredibly

784
00:38:51,916 --> 00:38:55,796
Speaker 1: depressing story. Is it good or bad that the Democrats

785
00:38:56,036 --> 00:38:58,956
Speaker 1: tried via impeachments only put a hypothesis to you. The

786
00:38:59,076 --> 00:39:02,036
Speaker 1: hypothesis would be this, you know, someday we're going to

787
00:39:02,116 --> 00:39:04,836
Speaker 1: die and go to Valhalla and you know, meet James

788
00:39:04,836 --> 00:39:07,636
Speaker 1: Madison and Alexander Hamilton, or at least in my fantasy world,

789
00:39:07,636 --> 00:39:09,476
Speaker 1: that's where I go, and that's my first meeting I

790
00:39:09,556 --> 00:39:12,156
Speaker 1: take when I get to Valhalla, and you know, they're

791
00:39:12,156 --> 00:39:15,476
Speaker 1: going to say, we told you this could happen. You know,

792
00:39:15,556 --> 00:39:17,636
Speaker 1: we told you that foreign powers would seek to be

793
00:39:17,676 --> 00:39:20,676
Speaker 1: in the ascendant, and we told you that we created

794
00:39:20,676 --> 00:39:23,796
Speaker 1: the impeachment proceeding for this circumstance. What did you do?

795
00:39:24,036 --> 00:39:25,876
Speaker 1: You know, what did you take action? And I have

796
00:39:25,956 --> 00:39:29,596
Speaker 1: the hypothesis that even if the Democrats can't remove Trump,

797
00:39:30,356 --> 00:39:34,276
Speaker 1: that they might be justified in going forward now, just

798
00:39:34,356 --> 00:39:36,116
Speaker 1: so that they can say, in front of the judgment

799
00:39:36,156 --> 00:39:40,036
Speaker 1: of history, we tried. We tried to save the republic.

800
00:39:40,196 --> 00:39:43,956
Speaker 1: We had a present who openly abused power. We tried

801
00:39:43,996 --> 00:39:47,356
Speaker 1: to vote him out. Okay, the people weren't with us,

802
00:39:47,636 --> 00:39:49,676
Speaker 1: and as the founding fathers should be the first to acknowledge,

803
00:39:49,716 --> 00:39:51,796
Speaker 1: if the people lack political virtue, it is the end

804
00:39:51,836 --> 00:39:53,916
Speaker 1: of the republic. But can't there's no fix to that one.

805
00:39:54,716 --> 00:39:57,956
Speaker 1: The alternati view would be, no, you know, don't do something.

806
00:39:57,996 --> 00:39:59,476
Speaker 1: It's going to make it worse for the Republic. We're

807
00:39:59,516 --> 00:40:01,356
Speaker 1: better off not trying, because then we'll have a Trump

808
00:40:01,396 --> 00:40:03,916
Speaker 1: who's empowered by the failure of impeachment. And we shouldn't

809
00:40:03,916 --> 00:40:06,556
Speaker 1: have even done that. We should think only about practical consequences,

810
00:40:06,716 --> 00:40:08,916
Speaker 1: not about the judgment of history. Where do you come

811
00:40:08,956 --> 00:40:12,316
Speaker 1: down on that debate. I think we reached the judgment

812
00:40:12,316 --> 00:40:15,196
Speaker 1: of history point. But I also think that part of

813
00:40:15,236 --> 00:40:18,716
Speaker 1: what informed Pelosi up till now was fear of the

814
00:40:18,716 --> 00:40:21,396
Speaker 1: Clinton situation, which is that he gets impeached and gets

815
00:40:21,436 --> 00:40:23,796
Speaker 1: more popular. At least that's how it's remembered. I don't

816
00:40:23,796 --> 00:40:25,756
Speaker 1: think it's perfectly clear that's what actually happened, but that's

817
00:40:25,756 --> 00:40:29,156
Speaker 1: certainly how it's remembered. I think for a bunch of

818
00:40:29,196 --> 00:40:33,556
Speaker 1: reasons that position became untenable, mostly because this was such

819
00:40:33,596 --> 00:40:36,236
Speaker 1: a clear slap in the face, and it particularly what

820
00:40:36,276 --> 00:40:39,636
Speaker 1: he's accused of doing is attempting to influence the next election.

821
00:40:40,156 --> 00:40:41,796
Speaker 1: If you thought the only way to get him out

822
00:40:41,796 --> 00:40:44,476
Speaker 1: of office is by voting him out of office, you

823
00:40:44,516 --> 00:40:47,116
Speaker 1: can't then let him try to put his finger on

824
00:40:47,156 --> 00:40:49,756
Speaker 1: the scales to prevent that very thing from happening. So

825
00:40:49,756 --> 00:40:52,076
Speaker 1: it's really the perfect storm on that view. I mean,

826
00:40:52,196 --> 00:40:53,796
Speaker 1: that's a good answer. It says, it's not just that

827
00:40:53,836 --> 00:40:56,916
Speaker 1: this is clearer, it's that everything else had happened in

828
00:40:56,956 --> 00:41:00,276
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, and that election was over because although the

829
00:41:00,316 --> 00:41:03,356
Speaker 1: Democrats won, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, Trump won

830
00:41:03,396 --> 00:41:06,276
Speaker 1: the election. But if you're talking about twenty twenty, if

831
00:41:06,276 --> 00:41:09,436
Speaker 1: the conduct that's alleged is trying to subvert the twenty election,

832
00:41:09,556 --> 00:41:12,556
Speaker 1: the Democrats had to act because it's forward looking, and

833
00:41:12,636 --> 00:41:15,076
Speaker 1: what's the alternative if you don't act now. I don't

834
00:41:15,076 --> 00:41:17,476
Speaker 1: know that it will make that much difference in terms

835
00:41:17,476 --> 00:41:20,596
Speaker 1: of empowering Trump once it comes out that he's trying

836
00:41:20,596 --> 00:41:22,676
Speaker 1: to influence the twenty twenty election, which it has come

837
00:41:22,716 --> 00:41:25,436
Speaker 1: out of this correct for the Democrats to do nothing

838
00:41:25,716 --> 00:41:28,876
Speaker 1: also says the field is yours, do whatever you want,

839
00:41:28,996 --> 00:41:31,636
Speaker 1: Although the other thing it could be saying is we've

840
00:41:31,676 --> 00:41:33,996
Speaker 1: told the public about this, The public knows about it,

841
00:41:34,276 --> 00:41:35,876
Speaker 1: and now we're going to vote it out. You know,

842
00:41:35,916 --> 00:41:38,556
Speaker 1: now we're going to actually see who wins the election.

843
00:41:38,956 --> 00:41:40,796
Speaker 1: And you could see that argument, you know, put that

844
00:41:40,836 --> 00:41:42,996
Speaker 1: was the Polosi argument up until a few weeks ago.

845
00:41:43,356 --> 00:41:46,116
Speaker 1: Put all the eggs in the twenty twenty basket. Say

846
00:41:46,116 --> 00:41:48,996
Speaker 1: to the electorate, the president's trying to con you, The

847
00:41:49,036 --> 00:41:50,796
Speaker 1: president's trying to play you. The president's trying to get

848
00:41:50,836 --> 00:41:53,916
Speaker 1: help from Ukraine to influence you. You know, resist that influence.

849
00:41:53,916 --> 00:41:55,596
Speaker 1: And I suppose you can do that va impeachment, But

850
00:41:55,636 --> 00:41:58,516
Speaker 1: you could also do that not via impeachment. Yes, but

851
00:41:58,596 --> 00:42:00,716
Speaker 1: we don't know what we don't know, So what else

852
00:42:00,796 --> 00:42:03,036
Speaker 1: is he doing? Right? What if he's also making a

853
00:42:03,076 --> 00:42:05,196
Speaker 1: side deal with the Russians to actually hack the electoral

854
00:42:05,196 --> 00:42:08,316
Speaker 1: equipment and change the votes. Not everything can be resisted.

855
00:42:08,716 --> 00:42:12,196
Speaker 1: But now, I mean, you're right, but that to me

856
00:42:12,676 --> 00:42:15,036
Speaker 1: heads off in the direction of conspiracy. Not that the

857
00:42:15,076 --> 00:42:17,716
Speaker 1: Russians might not try to do that, that's improbable, but

858
00:42:17,836 --> 00:42:20,916
Speaker 1: not totally conspiratorial, but rather that the Trump emmustician would

859
00:42:20,916 --> 00:42:23,796
Speaker 1: collude in that, because as we know, when it came

860
00:42:23,836 --> 00:42:26,916
Speaker 1: to the last election, they came very close to the

861
00:42:26,996 --> 00:42:30,196
Speaker 1: line of colluding with the Russians, but they didn't. No, no,

862
00:42:30,236 --> 00:42:32,196
Speaker 1: we don't know that. What we know is that there

863
00:42:32,236 --> 00:42:34,876
Speaker 1: was never evidence that they actually colluded. What we have

864
00:42:34,996 --> 00:42:38,116
Speaker 1: this time that's different is actual evidence of collusion, direct

865
00:42:38,156 --> 00:42:40,996
Speaker 1: evidence of collusion. Right, we still don't know what we

866
00:42:40,996 --> 00:42:43,636
Speaker 1: don't know, and I'm not saying we have now as

867
00:42:43,676 --> 00:42:47,036
Speaker 1: evidence of attempted collusion, all right, but in a much

868
00:42:47,196 --> 00:42:50,796
Speaker 1: clearer way than we had with the last election. Right.

869
00:42:50,996 --> 00:42:53,076
Speaker 1: If a phone call like this had come up about

870
00:42:53,116 --> 00:42:56,356
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen with Putin, where would we be. I think

871
00:42:56,356 --> 00:42:58,716
Speaker 1: that Muller's report would read very differently if there were

872
00:42:58,796 --> 00:43:02,236
Speaker 1: the transcript of a phone call in which Trump laid

873
00:43:02,236 --> 00:43:05,036
Speaker 1: out this same type of deal with Putin. So when

874
00:43:05,196 --> 00:43:09,956
Speaker 1: we meet Madison in Hamilton, they're going to say what

875
00:43:10,116 --> 00:43:12,876
Speaker 1: they're going to say. Okay, good that you tried. But

876
00:43:12,996 --> 00:43:15,956
Speaker 1: in the end it's all about the people, you know,

877
00:43:16,316 --> 00:43:19,076
Speaker 1: will the people be convinced? And in the end, I

878
00:43:19,076 --> 00:43:21,996
Speaker 1: think that measurement will come less from the impeachment process

879
00:43:22,036 --> 00:43:24,156
Speaker 1: than from the twenty twenty election. I mean, in some sense,

880
00:43:24,196 --> 00:43:25,876
Speaker 1: what I hear you saying, and I think maybe I

881
00:43:25,916 --> 00:43:27,676
Speaker 1: agree with this, is that the twenty twenty election is

882
00:43:27,716 --> 00:43:30,316
Speaker 1: one of the most important in the history of the Republic,

883
00:43:30,796 --> 00:43:33,836
Speaker 1: not so much because of Republican versus Democrat, or because

884
00:43:33,876 --> 00:43:36,356
Speaker 1: of the future of the country with respect any given policy,

885
00:43:36,956 --> 00:43:39,356
Speaker 1: as because it will be the judgment of history on

886
00:43:39,396 --> 00:43:43,236
Speaker 1: how much a president can subvert the Constitution openly and

887
00:43:43,836 --> 00:43:47,396
Speaker 1: still have a shot at getting reelected. I believe that's true.

888
00:43:47,476 --> 00:43:50,476
Speaker 1: But let's assume for the moment that the Democrats win

889
00:43:50,996 --> 00:43:54,036
Speaker 1: the next election. I think there's another way in which

890
00:43:54,076 --> 00:43:57,636
Speaker 1: this fight may yet reverberate back that is worth at

891
00:43:57,676 --> 00:44:01,556
Speaker 1: least pondering. Which is the moment that happens. Let's assume

892
00:44:01,556 --> 00:44:04,476
Speaker 1: that two years later, as has become the pattern, Republicans

893
00:44:04,516 --> 00:44:07,076
Speaker 1: regain control of the House or the Senate. If they

894
00:44:07,076 --> 00:44:10,196
Speaker 1: don't already have control, do they immediately turn around and

895
00:44:10,236 --> 00:44:13,356
Speaker 1: impeach the Democratic president? And I think the answer to

896
00:44:13,436 --> 00:44:15,996
Speaker 1: that may end up being yes, because this will be

897
00:44:16,036 --> 00:44:19,716
Speaker 1: seen on the right as the coup that Trump says

898
00:44:19,716 --> 00:44:23,116
Speaker 1: it is, and I worry that. I don't think there's

899
00:44:23,116 --> 00:44:24,916
Speaker 1: a way around this problem. But I think that we

900
00:44:24,956 --> 00:44:27,516
Speaker 1: have to be mindful of the fact that this is

901
00:44:27,556 --> 00:44:30,596
Speaker 1: going to feel like we are now normalizing. To some

902
00:44:30,956 --> 00:44:33,956
Speaker 1: we are normalizing the impeachment process to throw out a

903
00:44:33,996 --> 00:44:37,636
Speaker 1: president we do not like that. Already Republicans flirted with

904
00:44:37,676 --> 00:44:40,476
Speaker 1: that with Obama but never actually got there. They talked

905
00:44:40,476 --> 00:44:42,756
Speaker 1: about impeaching Obama, though they didn't have any grounds and

906
00:44:42,756 --> 00:44:45,516
Speaker 1: were never able to produce any. I wonder whether or

907
00:44:45,596 --> 00:44:47,796
Speaker 1: not they will be as restrained, if I could even

908
00:44:47,876 --> 00:44:50,036
Speaker 1: use that word, as they were with Obama, with the

909
00:44:50,076 --> 00:44:52,556
Speaker 1: next Democratic president. So in that sense, we didn't dodge

910
00:44:52,596 --> 00:44:55,236
Speaker 1: the bullet when after Bill Clinton's impeachment, when many people

911
00:44:55,276 --> 00:44:57,676
Speaker 1: said the same thing, you know, next the Democrats are

912
00:44:57,676 --> 00:44:59,036
Speaker 1: going to do it, and then the Republicans will do it.

913
00:44:59,076 --> 00:45:01,276
Speaker 1: But it didn't happen right away. But the argument would

914
00:45:01,276 --> 00:45:04,276
Speaker 1: be that an historical perspective, twenty years later we did

915
00:45:04,356 --> 00:45:08,236
Speaker 1: have another impeachment, and since it had been since eighteen

916
00:45:08,316 --> 00:45:10,116
Speaker 1: sixty eight when they came around to it in nineteen

917
00:45:10,196 --> 00:45:12,876
Speaker 1: ninety eight, it's a long stretch of time, one hundred

918
00:45:12,916 --> 00:45:15,356
Speaker 1: and thirty years. This time it only took twenty and

919
00:45:15,396 --> 00:45:17,636
Speaker 1: then you can imagine that it'll take ten and five

920
00:45:17,676 --> 00:45:20,356
Speaker 1: and then we could enter into a world of constant impeachments.

921
00:45:20,716 --> 00:45:24,956
Speaker 1: And that is not the world that the Framers anticipated. Well,

922
00:45:25,076 --> 00:45:27,316
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to find all that out, and in

923
00:45:27,356 --> 00:45:31,236
Speaker 1: this extremely fascinating and challenging period of time, all we

924
00:45:31,356 --> 00:45:34,756
Speaker 1: can do is try to understand what the Constitution requires,

925
00:45:34,956 --> 00:45:37,956
Speaker 1: try to live in some accordance with its dictates, and

926
00:45:38,396 --> 00:45:40,876
Speaker 1: keep on watching our news feeds and find out what

927
00:45:40,916 --> 00:45:44,796
Speaker 1: extraordinary revelations will come next set. Thank you for clarifying

928
00:45:44,836 --> 00:45:46,996
Speaker 1: all this and talking it through with me. I feel

929
00:45:46,996 --> 00:45:51,236
Speaker 1: like I'm a little more pessimistic about the inevitability of

930
00:45:51,276 --> 00:45:53,716
Speaker 1: certain events after talking to than I was when I started.

931
00:45:53,756 --> 00:45:55,476
Speaker 1: But I feel like I'm enlightened with respect of what

932
00:45:55,636 --> 00:46:04,836
Speaker 1: may happen. So thank you very much. And now our

933
00:46:04,876 --> 00:46:15,596
Speaker 1: sound of the week, Why that was the sound of

934
00:46:15,756 --> 00:46:20,076
Speaker 1: chaos in Hong Kong, a sound that heralds a genuine

935
00:46:20,196 --> 00:46:23,796
Speaker 1: split screen for the government of the People's Republic of China.

936
00:46:23,916 --> 00:46:26,316
Speaker 1: On the one hand, as you just heard, Hong Kong

937
00:46:26,396 --> 00:46:28,716
Speaker 1: is in the midst of the worst protests that it's

938
00:46:28,756 --> 00:46:32,956
Speaker 1: seen in the modern historical era, direct challenges to the

939
00:46:32,996 --> 00:46:36,676
Speaker 1: authority of mainland China on the island. And yet at

940
00:46:36,676 --> 00:46:40,556
Speaker 1: the same exact time in Beijing, the government of China

941
00:46:40,716 --> 00:46:45,076
Speaker 1: celebrated the seventieth anniversary of the People's Republic and in effect,

942
00:46:45,356 --> 00:46:48,276
Speaker 1: the victory of the Communist Party in the long historical

943
00:46:48,356 --> 00:46:51,556
Speaker 1: process of bringing China into the modern era and turning

944
00:46:51,556 --> 00:46:55,756
Speaker 1: it into a major global power. A centerpiece of that

945
00:46:55,876 --> 00:47:03,796
Speaker 1: celebration was a rather extraordinary military parade. Underwater vehicle after

946
00:47:03,916 --> 00:47:10,036
Speaker 1: underwater vehicle innovative unmanned drone after unmanneddrone paraded through the

947
00:47:10,036 --> 00:47:13,476
Speaker 1: streets of Beijing, signaling to the world that China was

948
00:47:13,516 --> 00:47:16,916
Speaker 1: not merely one of the most significant economies in the world,

949
00:47:17,236 --> 00:47:20,956
Speaker 1: not merely enmeshed in an increasing and extending set of

950
00:47:20,996 --> 00:47:25,996
Speaker 1: relationships with economic partners, but increasingly is emerging as the

951
00:47:25,996 --> 00:47:31,396
Speaker 1: world's second genuine superpower, not yet directly competing with the

952
00:47:31,476 --> 00:47:34,636
Speaker 1: United States globally, but increasingly capable of doing so, and

953
00:47:34,796 --> 00:47:38,156
Speaker 1: certainly capable of competing with the United States in the

954
00:47:38,276 --> 00:47:42,356
Speaker 1: region around China itself in Asia. So what are we

955
00:47:42,476 --> 00:47:46,796
Speaker 1: to make of this extraordinary split screen that faces China.

956
00:47:46,996 --> 00:47:49,636
Speaker 1: One way to think of it is that the Hong

957
00:47:49,716 --> 00:47:53,036
Speaker 1: Kong protests are in fact, in historical terms, more of

958
00:47:53,076 --> 00:47:55,796
Speaker 1: a blip in the rise of China than they are

959
00:47:56,036 --> 00:47:57,996
Speaker 1: what most people in the West have taken them to be,

960
00:47:58,316 --> 00:48:02,796
Speaker 1: a reminder that China is fundamentally an autocracy. Seen from

961
00:48:02,796 --> 00:48:07,076
Speaker 1: the perspective of the longer swath of history, China's rise

962
00:48:07,236 --> 00:48:11,756
Speaker 1: is now an accomplished fact. There's no going back. Any

963
00:48:11,836 --> 00:48:16,196
Speaker 1: goal by the United States to limit, cabin or contain

964
00:48:16,356 --> 00:48:18,356
Speaker 1: China is going to have to take place against the

965
00:48:18,396 --> 00:48:25,956
Speaker 1: backdrop of China's tremendous economic growth and China's tremendous military improvements.

966
00:48:26,316 --> 00:48:29,196
Speaker 1: That means that we're increasingly moving to a world that

967
00:48:29,316 --> 00:48:32,116
Speaker 1: is not unipolar, in which there is a single superpower,

968
00:48:32,196 --> 00:48:34,476
Speaker 1: as the French would sometimes put it hyperpower in the

969
00:48:34,556 --> 00:48:37,276
Speaker 1: United States, but rather something a little bit closer to

970
00:48:37,316 --> 00:48:39,196
Speaker 1: what we saw in the Cold War when there were

971
00:48:39,196 --> 00:48:43,356
Speaker 1: two competing powers. Indeed, that's what made me, already almost

972
00:48:43,356 --> 00:48:45,796
Speaker 1: a decade ago, think that we're entering a period not

973
00:48:45,916 --> 00:48:48,276
Speaker 1: of Cold War but of cool war between the United

974
00:48:48,276 --> 00:48:52,956
Speaker 1: States and China. The Hong Kong protests, though they symbolize

975
00:48:52,996 --> 00:48:57,196
Speaker 1: and remind us the China's government is autocratic, don't fundamentally

976
00:48:57,436 --> 00:49:02,476
Speaker 1: undercut that geopolitical analysis. The island of Hong Kong may

977
00:49:02,516 --> 00:49:04,916
Speaker 1: be full of unrest, but that is not sufficient to

978
00:49:05,036 --> 00:49:08,756
Speaker 1: derail China. I think that when historians look back on

979
00:49:08,756 --> 00:49:12,796
Speaker 1: the seb anniversary, that's the take they're more likely to have. Yet,

980
00:49:12,796 --> 00:49:16,196
Speaker 1: there is an important message associated with the realities of

981
00:49:16,236 --> 00:49:18,836
Speaker 1: what's happening in Hong Kong, and it is the reminder

982
00:49:18,916 --> 00:49:22,996
Speaker 1: to China's leaders, and particular to Shijinping, that just because

983
00:49:23,036 --> 00:49:27,156
Speaker 1: you're a superpower doesn't mean every part of your increasing

984
00:49:27,196 --> 00:49:32,036
Speaker 1: empire will do what you want. That's a lesson that

985
00:49:32,116 --> 00:49:33,756
Speaker 1: you don't really have to think about when you're in

986
00:49:33,796 --> 00:49:36,116
Speaker 1: the process of rising, but you do have to think

987
00:49:36,116 --> 00:49:39,276
Speaker 1: about when you're in the process of expanding. There will

988
00:49:39,276 --> 00:49:42,156
Speaker 1: be global actors, including actors who are just a bunch

989
00:49:42,196 --> 00:49:44,916
Speaker 1: of teenagers in a place like Hong Kong, the no

990
00:49:45,036 --> 00:49:50,276
Speaker 1: geopolitical significance, who nevertheless are capable of interfering and blocking

991
00:49:50,276 --> 00:49:53,796
Speaker 1: you from doing what you want, and who can enable

992
00:49:53,876 --> 00:49:57,116
Speaker 1: you not to have the global feel good story that

993
00:49:57,156 --> 00:50:00,356
Speaker 1: you're trying to accomplish. That is a message that we

994
00:50:00,436 --> 00:50:03,956
Speaker 1: need to remember because it's a reminder that China's rise

995
00:50:04,396 --> 00:50:07,716
Speaker 1: is interwoven with the question of how China governs itself.

996
00:50:08,396 --> 00:50:11,036
Speaker 1: Through much of the period of its rise, China was

997
00:50:11,076 --> 00:50:15,676
Speaker 1: governed by a broad elite of Chinese communist power elders

998
00:50:15,916 --> 00:50:20,356
Speaker 1: who shared power amongst themselves and indeed alternated power in

999
00:50:20,396 --> 00:50:25,476
Speaker 1: ten year cycles. They do not have that structure anymore today.

1000
00:50:25,516 --> 00:50:29,436
Speaker 1: Shijunping has emerged as the single dominant leader of China,

1001
00:50:29,796 --> 00:50:32,116
Speaker 1: more on the model of Mao than on the model

1002
00:50:32,156 --> 00:50:35,556
Speaker 1: of those who immediately preceded him. If you run the

1003
00:50:35,596 --> 00:50:39,556
Speaker 1: world that way, there's no guarantee that you can sustain

1004
00:50:39,916 --> 00:50:43,276
Speaker 1: and pass along the structures of authority over the long term.

1005
00:50:43,916 --> 00:50:47,236
Speaker 1: Dictatorship is smoother in a ten or twenty or even

1006
00:50:47,356 --> 00:50:50,596
Speaker 1: thirty year way, but dictatorship is not smoother when it

1007
00:50:50,636 --> 00:50:54,556
Speaker 1: comes to moments of transition, because again, the unruly public

1008
00:50:54,796 --> 00:50:57,596
Speaker 1: may get in the way of the transitions that you want.

1009
00:50:57,956 --> 00:51:01,436
Speaker 1: The genuine challenge that faces China going forward is to

1010
00:51:01,476 --> 00:51:06,796
Speaker 1: consolidate and stabilize its form of government. Shijinping has actually

1011
00:51:06,876 --> 00:51:11,716
Speaker 1: moved China backwards with respect to transitions from one generation

1012
00:51:11,836 --> 00:51:15,116
Speaker 1: of government to another. Sure, he's got the capacity to

1013
00:51:15,156 --> 00:51:18,436
Speaker 1: reduce corruption, which is a genuine systemic risk to the

1014
00:51:18,436 --> 00:51:22,596
Speaker 1: People's Republic, Yet in doing so, by consolidating power, he's

1015
00:51:22,716 --> 00:51:27,156
Speaker 1: opened himself to the possibility that the small voices at

1016
00:51:27,156 --> 00:51:31,036
Speaker 1: the periphery of his empire, and it is increasingly an empire,

1017
00:51:31,436 --> 00:51:35,916
Speaker 1: can interfere with the smooth operation that he actually wants.

1018
00:51:36,316 --> 00:51:39,636
Speaker 1: And to me, that's the takeaway of the split screen.

1019
00:51:44,276 --> 00:51:47,236
Speaker 1: Deep Background is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our

1020
00:51:47,236 --> 00:51:50,316
Speaker 1: producer is Lydia Jane Coott, with engineering by Jason Gambrell.

1021
00:51:50,516 --> 00:51:54,276
Speaker 1: And Jason Rostkowski. Our showrunner is Sophie mckibbon. Our theme

1022
00:51:54,356 --> 00:51:57,156
Speaker 1: music is composed by Luis Gera special thanks to the

1023
00:51:57,156 --> 00:52:01,276
Speaker 1: Pushkin Brass, Malcolm Gladwell, Jacob Weisberg and Mia Lobel. I'm

1024
00:52:01,316 --> 00:52:04,596
Speaker 1: Noah Feldman. You can follow me on Twitter at Noah R. Feldman.

1025
00:52:04,956 --> 00:52:06,316
Speaker 1: This is deep background