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Speaker 2: Let's switch to the airline industry. We heard from Delta
Speaker 2: Airlines today. They gave a better than expected forecast and
Speaker 2: that's despite saying, hey, they took a four hundred million
Speaker 2: dollars of increased fuel charge in the month of March,
Speaker 2: reflecting what's going on in the world. So let's check
Speaker 2: in with somebody who follows this stuff. Sid Phillip Bloomberg,
Speaker 2: chief correspondent for Global Aviation Joint. Just here, what did
Speaker 2: we learned from from Delta today, said Morning Polt.
Speaker 3: So, Delta Airlines is talking about how they've managed to
Speaker 3: raise their ticket prices and that sort of helped them
Speaker 3: offset the increase in jet fuel prices. I mean, we've
Speaker 3: seen jet field prices so almost double more than bubble
Speaker 3: since the war and Iran began, and that's really the
Speaker 3: biggest chunk of costs for airlines. And what airlines are
Speaker 3: talking about is saying that they've managed to pass on
Speaker 3: those cost increases to the customers in the form of
Speaker 3: higher ticket prices, and that's really helped them sort of
Speaker 3: continue to weather the crisis and be able to sort
Speaker 3: of manage a ramp up bookings. I mean, Delta talked
Speaker 3: about how in the last in the last since the
Speaker 3: war began, they've had five of their ten biggest sale days,
Speaker 3: and that sort of really shows that consumers are sort
Speaker 3: of locking in their travel at the moment.
Speaker 4: That's great if you have the pricing power like a
Speaker 4: Delta Airlines, but what if you are a discount carrier
Speaker 4: that relies on low ticket prices to get your passengers,
Speaker 4: to get consumers to sign up. I mean, it's a
Speaker 4: different story, isn't it.
Speaker 5: It is?
Speaker 3: And so Delta Airlines obviously has a predominance of premium
Speaker 3: heavy travelers, so they sort of talk about how they're
Speaker 3: targeting businesses and corporate travel, which is sort of continue
Speaker 3: to see growth. They're also talking about how premium leisure
Speaker 3: travelers are continuing to buy tickets, but at the lower
Speaker 3: end of the spectrum, I mean, the Spirit Airlines and
Speaker 3: the others they might see their consumers that have balk
Speaker 3: at higher ticket prices and they may put off those trips.
Speaker 3: Although we are sort of seeing Jet Blue. We heard
Speaker 3: from Jet Blue earlier today and they talked about how
Speaker 3: they are also seeing people continuing to book. So it
Speaker 3: does look like consumers are trying to sort of get
Speaker 3: ahead of future price increases by locking in travel for
Speaker 3: the summer and the rest of the year early.
Speaker 2: So what's about the visibility. What are the airlines saying
Speaker 2: about the visibility of their bookings. I mean, that's also
Speaker 2: a metric that I know kind of gives you a
Speaker 2: sense of how confident they are in their business.
Speaker 3: So at the moment, the airlines say that the bookings
Speaker 3: look visibly healthy, at the other end of the spectrum,
Speaker 3: I mean, they're still talking about how they're not quite
Speaker 3: sure where jet fuel prices will settle, and that's sort
Speaker 3: of really key in terms of bookings as well as
Speaker 3: the jet fuel prices. So that's sort of those two
Speaker 3: things go hand in hand and determine how profitable the
Speaker 3: airlines will be, because remember, if they're able to sort
Speaker 3: of pass on higher ticket prices, but jet fuel prices
Speaker 3: continue to grow higher than those ticket prices, that's when
Speaker 3: the airlines start feeling the pain because then sort of
Speaker 3: not being able to keep up with their costs. On
Speaker 3: the other hand, if they can sort of dick the
Speaker 3: higher prices and see costs come down, that'll sort of
Speaker 3: help them boost their profitability.
Speaker 4: So one thing that you and your colleagues point out
Speaker 4: and your reporting is that US carriers, unlike those in Europe, don't.
Speaker 6: Hedge fuel prices.
Speaker 4: Once upon a time, some of them did, but most
Speaker 4: of them don't anymore. Why the change And do you
Speaker 4: think that because of what we're seeing in around, because
Speaker 4: of what we're seeing with the volatility the uncertainty around
Speaker 4: oil prices, that airlines might start to hedge those fuel
Speaker 4: prices again.
Speaker 3: So the airlines have typically not hedge. I mean, famously,
Speaker 3: during COVID, a lot of airlines got stuck with hedges
Speaker 3: that were sort of in the wrong direction when jet
Speaker 3: field prices crashed, when demand plummeted, and so at at
Speaker 3: the moment, we haven't yet heard from airlines talking about
Speaker 3: returning to the hedging policies. But Delta does point out
Speaker 3: that they own a refinery and that gives them somewhat
Speaker 3: of a natural hedge, and essentially they expect that to
Speaker 3: help them whether the increase in jet field prices.
Speaker 2: He said, what are the airlines saying about the state
Speaker 2: of TSA today? A lot of We've seen a lot
Speaker 2: of stories, a lot of video plasts a week or
Speaker 2: so of really long lines at airports. Do they have
Speaker 2: an opinion on how this might play out?
Speaker 3: I mean, the airlines, including the industry groups that Airlines
Speaker 3: for America has been talking about how there needs to
Speaker 3: be a deal that would basically allow DSA staff to
Speaker 3: get paid and basically start reducing those lines, because essentially
Speaker 3: the problem is that while it's not a safety or
Speaker 3: flight issue like the previous shutdown when the FAA had
Speaker 3: to sort of cancel flights into forty airports because of
Speaker 3: concerns about safety, this time it is sort of affecting
Speaker 3: the comfort of passengers and causing those long life we've
Speaker 3: seen in various airports acrowns the country, And essentially the
Speaker 3: airlines have been saying that this will get worse as
Speaker 3: we get into the peak summer travel season, and so
Speaker 3: they're hoping for early resolution and a return to somewhat
Speaker 3: normal as they go into the busy travel peaks.
Speaker 4: Yeah, speaking of the busy travel season, of the summer.
Speaker 4: Also at this conference, a lot of industry executives were
Speaker 4: making the point that if the strait of her moves
Speaker 4: were not secured by Memorial Day, that would be a
Speaker 4: key timeframe in which consumers might start to see ticket
Speaker 4: prices really go up even more than perhaps they already have.
Speaker 3: Exactly that would sort of take the long That would
Speaker 3: basically mean that higher fuel prices are here to stay
Speaker 3: for the slightly longer term, or we're not really sure
Speaker 3: when those fuel prices start coming down, and that's when
Speaker 3: consumers will.
Speaker 5: Say, Hey, do I.
Speaker 3: Really need to take three trips? Maybe I can just
Speaker 3: do with two, or I can sort of not fly
Speaker 3: at all the summer.
Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from bloomberk Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
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Speaker 1: through some.
Speaker 2: Other company news here Today, our friends at Craft Hindes
Speaker 2: they were going to.
Speaker 6: Split up, right, Yeah, but now they called it off. Yeah,
Speaker 6: they called it off.
Speaker 2: This They have a new CEO and I think he
Speaker 2: feels like can invest in some of these brands and
Speaker 2: drive growth that way, which is a different strategy than
Speaker 2: what we've seen from some other consumer products companies, because,
Speaker 2: let's face it, they're under pressure here. I think a
Speaker 2: lot of people like me are have traded down, our
Speaker 2: trading down some of the store brand, the private label brands,
Speaker 2: private label brands. That's putting pressure on some of those
Speaker 2: brands that they've spent generations trying to create these brand
Speaker 2: values through advertising in other ways. Christina Peterson joins US
Speaker 2: food industry reporter for Bloomberg News. Christia talk to us
Speaker 2: about what's going on at Craft Hines. What's the latest
Speaker 2: news there.
Speaker 7: Yeah, as you guys mentioned that they halted their plans
Speaker 7: to split. Their new CEO, Steve Kaling, is trying a
Speaker 7: new tactic by investing six hundred million dollars in their
Speaker 7: research and development. They're marketing, lowering some of their prices,
Speaker 7: and as part of that effort to restore growth in
Speaker 7: the company, they are unveiling some new healthier products and
Speaker 7: some of the brands that have really struggled but are
Speaker 7: showing some signs of growth. So we are going to
Speaker 7: be able to purchase a higher protein version of Kraft
Speaker 7: mac and Cheese later this month, and then in April
Speaker 7: they are unveiling a pre sun lower sugar hydration beverage
Speaker 7: and a snack sized version of Lunchables. So these are
Speaker 7: some of the brands that craft Higns has been weighed
Speaker 7: down by. But when they are investing in some money,
Speaker 7: they've seen a little bit of growth coming into those brands.
Speaker 4: Okay, adding protein makes sense given the shift among consumers
Speaker 4: towards more protein packed foods. But isn't the bigger shift
Speaker 4: about people wanting to avoid food that is seen as
Speaker 4: perhaps not as healthy as fresh food. I mean, we're
Speaker 4: still talking about packaged goods, right.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I think that is the sort of
Speaker 7: inherent risk here. I asked the CEO about this, and
Speaker 7: he said he thinks people are leaving the center aisles
Speaker 7: of the store where you buy package food because they
Speaker 7: want better for you options, and that as a packaged
Speaker 7: food company, what they can do is try and do
Speaker 7: better for you through a shorter ingredient list what food
Speaker 7: companies called clean labels, by adding more of these kind
Speaker 7: of trendy macronutrients, leaning into protein, leaning into fiber, but
Speaker 7: You're right, no one's going to confuse this for Kale.
Speaker 7: So they're betting that there are times when convenience and
Speaker 7: taste will win over consumers.
Speaker 2: That's the only thing that drives me. I don't know
Speaker 2: what they're talking about here, but I understand.
Speaker 7: You're all Kale all the time.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, exactly, Christina. What's the specifically for Craft Highs.
Speaker 2: I mean a lot other companies in the package goods
Speaker 2: industries have pursued separation plans. Is there a sense within
Speaker 2: the industry whether that's a good strategy not a good strategy.
Speaker 2: Maybe Craft finds things they can be a little bit
Speaker 2: smarter about it.
Speaker 7: I think that there was a general agreement that splitting
Speaker 7: Craft Hinds into two separate companies at that moment in
Speaker 7: time did not actually make a lot of sense because
Speaker 7: both halves were seen as somewhat weak. If you had
Speaker 7: one company that was doing really well and one half
Speaker 7: of the company that was struggling, then you could siphon
Speaker 7: that off and protect the stronger half. But in this instance,
Speaker 7: I think people thought it did make sense to pump
Speaker 7: the brakes on that and see if you could restore
Speaker 7: growth and at least part of the company before splitting
Speaker 7: them apart. So even if you know Oscar Meyer Meets
Speaker 7: or Maxwell Hoouse Coffee can't be restored, maybe some of
Speaker 7: the other parts of the business can be. And then
Speaker 7: if they were to pursue a sale down the road,
Speaker 7: a split down the road, that would make more sense.
Speaker 7: So just trying to like bring the company back to
Speaker 7: life before you auction it off.
Speaker 4: Well, you mentioned a couple of brands there, mac and
Speaker 4: Cheese being something that Craft Times is willing to invest in.
Speaker 4: The Lunchible's brand is also something that they're kind of
Speaker 4: beefing up, and Caprice Son as well, which I think
Speaker 4: we all remember from packing our kids lunchboxes and having
Speaker 4: them ourselves, but also the other brands within its portfolio,
Speaker 4: including Maxwell Hooll's Coffee and Oscar Meyer Delli Needs. Like
Speaker 4: those are things that has a company largely given up
Speaker 4: on it and if they're not going to refresh those.
Speaker 6: Does that mean that they are for sale? For sure?
Speaker 7: They have said that they will invest in order to
Speaker 7: protect their market share, but they are not as far
Speaker 7: as we know now, thinking a lot of resources in
Speaker 7: to get new consumers there to grow their market share.
Speaker 7: The CEO has said that he would not rule anything
Speaker 7: out in terms of a sale or divestment, and they
Speaker 7: are you in the portfolio kind of broadly speaking, to
Speaker 7: see what works and what isn't working. He said they're
Speaker 7: not actively engaged and looking for buyers for those brands,
Speaker 7: but that they would not rule anything out.
Speaker 2: What's the market's feedback on this new CEO or has
Speaker 2: been there's too soon to really hear anything.
Speaker 7: Well, you know, it's a tricky time. Shares of craft
Speaker 7: higns have been down since the split was paused, but
Speaker 7: it's also been a tough time for the food industry.
Speaker 7: Just in general. Consumers are strapped. The conflict in the
Speaker 7: Middle East has sent oil prices rising. There are concerns
Speaker 7: that that will stress already strapped consumers out further. In general,
Speaker 7: the large food companies have been selling less food, so
Speaker 7: there is just concern broadly in the market. So I
Speaker 7: think people are willing to give Steve Kaylene a shot.
Speaker 7: And in general, you know, he is not highly of
Speaker 7: He presided over the split of Kellogg, so I think
Speaker 7: there was initially an expectation that he do the same
Speaker 7: with Kraft Times. I think people are interested to see
Speaker 7: if his gamble works but there is some skepticism that
Speaker 7: these are the brands that will be able to be
Speaker 7: perceived as better for you. That seems a little.
Speaker 5: Make a little bit of a lift.
Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am. He's done on Apple, Cocklay, and
Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: A little m and a trade on the tape here Today,
Speaker 2: the MasterCard will acquire the stable point infrastructure startup bv
Speaker 2: NK for as much as one point eight billion dollars.
Speaker 2: Have no idea what that is, so I'm going to
Speaker 2: go to somebody who does. Catherine Chiglinsky, US finance team
Speaker 2: leader for Bloomberg News, joining us Lacker in our Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Interactive Brokers studio. Katherine, what is MasterCard buying? What is
Speaker 2: bv nk.
Speaker 8: Well, it really does a lot of the stable coin infrastructure,
Speaker 8: So I think that's been a huge bet for them.
Speaker 8: Right Like MasterCard and its rival Visa have long dominated
Speaker 8: the payment infrastructure world, and this deal with bvank and MasterCard.
Speaker 8: I think really just allows MasterCard to actually boost its
Speaker 8: sort of digital payments operation without actually having to build
Speaker 8: the truct some of the technology itself, which I think
Speaker 8: is a real boon for it.
Speaker 4: There's also, you know, kind of this strategy that MasterCard
Speaker 4: has taken over the last few weeks, few months, because
Speaker 4: earlier this month they launched a what they call a
Speaker 4: global partnership network with a whole bunch of digital asset
Speaker 4: crypto related firms for more collaboration. It sounds like, you know,
Speaker 4: they're moving in that direction, but I don't know what
Speaker 4: it really means in terms of what changes for consumers.
Speaker 8: Yeah, well, I don't think a ton will change for consumers,
Speaker 8: because I think MasterCard is still very much wedded to
Speaker 8: the idea that like regular payments are its bread and butter.
Speaker 8: I do think, though, that they want to be a
Speaker 8: player in all these different markets, and especially as we
Speaker 8: see the adoptions of digital currencies increase, you know, I
Speaker 8: think they want to have at least the back end
Speaker 8: so that they can handle a lot of that. So
Speaker 8: I think those partnerships and this BV and K deal
Speaker 8: really are helping them sort of toggle both end so
Speaker 8: that they can get bigger with the growing market and
Speaker 8: have that technology ready so that as it continues to
Speaker 8: grow and they can really seize on it.
Speaker 2: You know, when I first started learning about fintech, one
Speaker 2: analyst said, just buy Visa, Mastercret. I mean, no matter
Speaker 2: what the technology is, it's going to flow on their
Speaker 2: platforms to some degree. How is that playing out? How
Speaker 2: is how are our mass card en Visa and maybe
Speaker 2: even A. Do they feel like they're participating in this
Speaker 2: transition to financial technology and digital in many ways?
Speaker 8: Yes, Like I do think that they have been, you know,
Speaker 8: seeking different ways to get there, to establish footholds in
Speaker 8: these markets. In other ways, you are still seeing deals
Speaker 8: like you're still seeing them by BV and K. I
Speaker 8: think there is still room for them to grow. But
Speaker 8: in the end, yes, will they find a way to
Speaker 8: sort of have their how have their fingers in all
Speaker 8: these different markets? I one hundred percent belief, so just
Speaker 8: because yeah, it really is this benefit of even if
Speaker 8: you know most of our markets are still relying on
Speaker 8: sort of regular payment systems, they want to be you know,
Speaker 8: intertwined with sort of this digital asset.
Speaker 4: Push has MasterCard clarified what its M and A strategy is.
Speaker 4: I mean there's partnerships that it's formed with this you
Speaker 4: know network, this global partnership network that it announced, and
Speaker 4: then there's actual M and A. At what point do
Speaker 4: they buy something wholesale versus just form a partnership.
Speaker 8: Yeah, well, I think there's a careful divide obviously. I
Speaker 8: think it has a lot has to do with price
Speaker 8: these days for these assets, especially when you think about
Speaker 8: how hyped up sort of the digital asset space is.
Speaker 8: So I assume, you know, like many companies are going
Speaker 8: to be pretty careful about exactly which ones they buy
Speaker 8: and which ones they partner with. You know, I think
Speaker 8: some of their partnerships have also been really to expand
Speaker 8: it widely. And I think but with like BV and K,
Speaker 8: I think they're getting you know, specific data infrastructure that's
Speaker 8: going to help sort of beef up their back end.
Speaker 2: Well, it's the stock prices performed just about in lockstep
Speaker 2: Visa and MasterCard over the trailing five years on a
Speaker 2: compounded annual basis, their stocks up about seven percent per year.
Speaker 5: Both of them.
Speaker 2: But that's laggings and people that's our thirteen percent, So
Speaker 2: a little bit of an issue there. Performing kind of
Speaker 2: in lockstep with each other. Catherine, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Appreciate that.
Speaker 2: Kathryn Chiglinsky, US Finance team leader, Bloomberg News talk to
Speaker 2: us about MasterCard buying in a little bit more into
Speaker 2: that fintech space here.
Speaker 5: Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: We've been following this office market really since the pandemic,
Speaker 2: as you talk about an industry that was really hit
Speaker 2: hard by the pandemic and it's still recovering as we
Speaker 2: think about getting back to the offices, and different companies
Speaker 2: have different policies, but from a real estate invest perspective,
Speaker 2: what's the story these days?
Speaker 5: What's check out?
Speaker 2: With Jeff Langbam, Senior US RIAT analyst FRO Bloomberg Intelligence. Jeff,
Speaker 2: I know you guys and your team did some research
Speaker 2: on kind of the current state of the office market
Speaker 2: in the US. What did you guys find?
Speaker 9: Yeah, not just the US, We actually did a survey
Speaker 9: of cities in the US and Europe and Asia and Australia,
Speaker 9: and the story was largely the same in all of
Speaker 9: these major cities, which is, companies want people back in
Speaker 9: the office and the way to get them back is
Speaker 9: to offer high quality new space and highly amenditized space
Speaker 9: and adjacent to transportation. And if you do that, then
Speaker 9: the people will come. And then the other takeaway, which
Speaker 9: is interesting I think, is that as of right now,
Speaker 9: at least so far, employees sitting in office buildings view
Speaker 9: AI as an expansion opportunity, less so of a and
Speaker 9: less so a threat to office demand.
Speaker 4: Okay, that that seems kind of counterintuitive. Explain why that is.
Speaker 4: Why is it an expansion opportunity?
Speaker 5: Well, a couple of different reasons.
Speaker 9: Well, the first, I guess the most obvious, as as
Speaker 9: it relates to leasing, is all these growing and forming
Speaker 9: AI companies need someplace to.
Speaker 5: Have their headquarters.
Speaker 9: So there was a lot of tech leasing happening in
Speaker 9: some of these big CDs that is directly related to
Speaker 9: this AI wave.
Speaker 5: So that's one thing.
Speaker 9: But as it relates to the survey itself, you know,
Speaker 9: a lot of the a lot of the jobs that
Speaker 9: may be deemed irrelevant from AI or maybe back office.
Speaker 5: They don't. They don't.
Speaker 9: They're not the jobs that are sitting in the high
Speaker 9: rise towers in New York.
Speaker 5: And London and Hong Kong.
Speaker 9: And maybe, you know, if companies can find incremental business opportunities,
Speaker 9: you know, by making themselves more efficient, there's actually a
Speaker 9: need to expand their space in those types of buildings
Speaker 9: to take advantage of that opportunity, even if it does
Speaker 9: mean some job redundancy elsewhere.
Speaker 2: Jeff, I think I know an A quality office building
Speaker 2: when I see on simply because I work in an
Speaker 2: A plus quality building here. Bloomberg seven thirty one les
Speaker 2: what percentage of the inventory office inventory in the US
Speaker 2: would you say is a quality?
Speaker 5: It's pretty low.
Speaker 9: And what's interesting is there is such a need for
Speaker 9: more of it that even though there are a lot
Speaker 9: of empty or mostly empty older office buildings, there is
Speaker 9: now new building new construction starting to come out of
Speaker 9: the ground and being earmarked for new construction coming out
Speaker 9: of the ground. And because there's no big blocks of
Speaker 9: available high end new space, and you know, we've got
Speaker 9: a couple of new buildings that are getting ready to
Speaker 9: start in New York and you know, you look back
Speaker 9: at two years or so ago, and that would have
Speaker 9: been crazy. Nobody would have thought that was that was possible.
Speaker 9: But that's where we are because there's just not the
Speaker 9: space that people want to lease.
Speaker 5: There is no availability, all right.
Speaker 2: So let's say like eighty percent is B and C.
Speaker 2: What happens all that stuff in every city?
Speaker 9: Well, the hope is that a lot of it turns
Speaker 9: to residential and there is some of that, and there's
Speaker 9: increasingly more of that, but that's going to be a
Speaker 9: slow burn and and you know, it's going to take
Speaker 9: time for those buildings to convert, but as they do,
Speaker 9: that reduces inventory of office which is helpful and also
Speaker 9: helps ease the housing affordability and lack of availability crisis
Speaker 9: in some of these cities. So that's that's one thing
Speaker 9: that will take, you know years. The other thing is that,
Speaker 9: you know, knock one down and build a new office building.
Speaker 9: You know, we're going to see some of that over
Speaker 9: the next couple of years as well.
Speaker 4: Wouldn't it be easier to turn those B or C
Speaker 4: grade office buildings into A grade office buildings? I mean,
Speaker 4: assuming you have the location, you kind of got, you know,
Speaker 4: share out the interior and rebuild it.
Speaker 9: Yeah, so obviously the location is is paramount, but you know,
Speaker 9: depending on what age building you're talking about, the ability
Speaker 9: to retrofit to what is really required now for a
Speaker 9: high end, high tech, environmentally friendly, you know, all of
Speaker 9: those things. I mean, it's it's an expensive proposition and
Speaker 9: in some cases just structurally challenging to do. And in fact,
Speaker 9: you know, if you're if you've got a building that's
Speaker 9: largely vacant and you can get it cheap enough, you
Speaker 9: probably are buying it for effectively the land cost anyway,
Speaker 9: and so knocking it down, you know, really ends up
Speaker 9: being probably cheaper and easier in some ways than entirely
Speaker 9: retrofitting it.
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