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Speaker 1: Good luck for the most beautiful game. Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're running a gay so smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 2: Sisting just glorious text protution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your

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Speaker 1: beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to the wide eyed drill pibus.

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Speaker 4: How old Earth pick that happens. Hello and welcome to Wondergul,

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Speaker 4: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. Joining me

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Speaker 4: as always Anthony the Bundo and BJ Cunningham. Gentlemen, we

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Speaker 4: have a full slate of MIDWEK Premier League matches to

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Speaker 4: get to and we're gonna start with a Tuesday kickoff

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Speaker 4: between Brentford the Bees Buzz and Manchester United, who are

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Speaker 4: minus one fifteen road favorites traveling to Brentford who are

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Speaker 4: plus three twenty the draws plus two seventy five. This

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Speaker 4: is a two thirty pm kickoff on Tuesday, the first

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Speaker 4: match of the week. Manchester United three wins one draws

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Speaker 4: zero losses in the Premier League since ol A Gunner

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Speaker 4: soul Shar left and Ralph Ragnick slash Michael Carrock took over. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: Carrick is now moved on and Ragnick is fully has

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Speaker 4: his teeth into the squad. Those results came against Chelsea,

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Speaker 4: Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Norch so teams from all over

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Speaker 4: the spectrum. Meanwhile, Brentford they're kind of just been scrappy.

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Speaker 4: Win against Everton, We've seen them sputter then they'll win.

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Speaker 4: They're playing like a mid table squad, I think is

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Speaker 4: fair to say it. Or they're playing like a good

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Speaker 4: promoted squad. We're not expecting them to finish in the

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Speaker 4: top six, but they're gonna be in the battle for

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Speaker 4: maybe tenth to twelfth, which is good. And I think

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Speaker 4: that this is a classic betting spot, a classic opportunity

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Speaker 4: for betters to sell high on Manchester United and the

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Speaker 4: hooplus surrounding Ralph Ragnick's arrival and a little bit of

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Speaker 4: an upturn in form without the underlying metrics being too

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Speaker 4: overwhelmingly positive. So I think Brentford on the money line

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Speaker 4: is an appealing number. I think this number could tick

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Speaker 4: up two as more people been into Manchester United. And

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Speaker 4: I'll see if my two colleagues Anthony and Bja agree

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Speaker 4: with me on the Bees. BJ will start with you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree that the Bees are undervalued here in

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Speaker 1: this spot. The big thing, obviously, Ralph Ragne has come in.

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Speaker 1: They won two straight matches, but they haven't been that

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Speaker 1: impressive in both those matches. You know, if you take

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Speaker 1: away the Ronaldo penalty against Norwich, they've only won the

51
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Speaker 1: expected goals battle two point three to one point seven

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Speaker 1: against Crystal Palace nor so really not that impressive. But

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Speaker 1: the biggest thing I was looking to see is what

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Speaker 1: are United's pressing numbers going to be like with Ragnik

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Speaker 1: in charge? And the answer is they've been a pretty

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Speaker 1: big uptick than they were under Soulshar. So they're averaging

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty presses per ninety minutes under Ragnik

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Speaker 1: and then only average one hundred and twenty seven under Soulshar.

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Speaker 1: And their pressure six rate was over thirty four percent

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Speaker 1: against both Crystal Palace and Norwich, which is well above

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Speaker 1: the Premier League average of twenty nine percent. However, even

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Speaker 1: when you watch Manchester United, there are so many times

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Speaker 1: that you just say, what are Fred and Scott mctomenay doing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there were so many times against Norwich that

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Speaker 1: they got pushed so far up the field and there

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Speaker 1: was so so much space right in the middle of

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Speaker 1: the pitch that you know, a team that is at

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Speaker 1: you know, better offensively than Norwich could have really capitalized

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Speaker 1: on that. We kind of saw that with, you know,

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Speaker 1: against Liverpool and against Manchester City. Now they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: facing a Brentford team that presses at an incredibly high rate.

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Speaker 1: They're very successful when they pressed because they have their

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Speaker 1: seventh and passes per defensive action, and they're very good

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Speaker 1: at winning the ball in the middle of the field

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Speaker 1: because they're second in ball recoveries. So I think that

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Speaker 1: they'll be able to hit Manchester United on the counter

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Speaker 1: pretty well in this match. Still know, Paul Pogba, There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys questionable from Manchester United, including Edison Cavani,

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Speaker 1: Rafael Vane, Aaron wan Bisaka and Victor lindeloff In. In addition

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Speaker 1: to that, Manchester United announced today that they have a

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Speaker 1: small number of COVID cases among players staff, so at

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Speaker 1: the time of taping this, we don't know who those

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Speaker 1: players or staff are. But even before accounting for those

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Speaker 1: people that could be out, I only have Manchester United

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Speaker 1: projected at plus one forty eight. So you know, if

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Speaker 1: you follow me and Anthony in the action or gap,

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Speaker 1: you'll see that we've already both bet Brentford plus half

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Speaker 1: a goal at plus one ten. I would honestly play

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Speaker 1: Brentford plus half a goal at anything up to minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty. So I'm on the bes with you, Michael.

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Speaker 4: A little bit of a spoiler alert there, but Anthony,

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Speaker 4: I guess you're jumping in the pool with us on

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Speaker 4: the Bees.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Bja said it. I already put the bet in

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Speaker 3: the app. As of Sunday afternoon, United hasn't been very

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Speaker 3: impressive in their first two games under Ragnick. I didn't

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Speaker 3: actually get a chance to watch the Norwich match, but

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Speaker 3: I watched it back at two time speed to kind

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Speaker 3: of get a feel for how they were playing. And

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Speaker 3: still it still feels like there's issues in generating shots

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Speaker 3: for this United team in the sense that it's pretty

102
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Speaker 3: much the entire attack still runs through Ronaldo, and Ronaldo,

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Speaker 3: as good as he is at getting on the end

104
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Speaker 3: of chances doesn't offer a ton of link up play

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Speaker 3: and that was very evident in the game against Norwich,

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Speaker 3: although he does end up winning the penalty, not a

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Speaker 3: of scoring chances for United in that match and really

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Speaker 3: a few big saves from David de Hay to keep

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Speaker 3: the Canaries off the board in that game. They're still

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Speaker 3: conceding about one expected goal per match since Ola has

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Speaker 3: been fired, so it's a little bit better. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they're not conceding one and a half that they were before,

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Speaker 3: but still some defensive deficiencies for sure.

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Speaker 2: The big difference here Brentford's.

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Speaker 3: Been really really good at home at the Brentford Community

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Speaker 3: Stadium plus point four actually difference per ninety at home.

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Speaker 3: That includes games against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Lester and Brighton.

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Speaker 3: So they've played really good teams at home and they've

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Speaker 3: outplayed a lot of those teams, including Chelsea and for

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Speaker 3: large chutches. Liverpool United significantly worse on the road than

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Speaker 3: they've been at home this year, which is a bit

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Speaker 3: of different than the year's passed under Olay, but they

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Speaker 3: have not been very good away from home and so

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Speaker 3: I agree with BJM on on the b's plus a

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Speaker 3: half here, I think they get a result.

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Speaker 2: I think probably ends one to one.

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Speaker 4: The team that Manchester United defeated this weekend was Norch City.

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Speaker 4: One zer win for the Red Devils there plus two

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Speaker 4: to twenty five. Norch is at home against Astonville a

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Speaker 4: plus one thirty The draws plus two thirties two to

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Speaker 4: forty five off and it is a revenge spot for

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Speaker 4: mister Dean Smith facing Assen Villa, who fired him about

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Speaker 4: eight days before he took the job at nord City

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Speaker 4: in November. Since Villa switch managers to Steven Gerard, I

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Speaker 4: think all three of us can agree Gerard's done a

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Speaker 4: good job with the Villains defensively, especially offensively a little

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Speaker 4: bit of a different story. They are averaging point eighty

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Speaker 4: six expected goals per match under Gerard so far. This

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Speaker 4: game also has a pretty low total. It's two and

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Speaker 4: a quarter right now, basically pick them on either side.

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Speaker 4: So I think this game sets up pretty decently for

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Speaker 4: a draw. I don't expect Norich to try to take

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Speaker 4: the game to Assen Villain. I don't expect aston Villa

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Speaker 4: to be able to unlock Norwich's defense, which, yeah, they've

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Speaker 4: not been great but they've been better under Dean Smith

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Speaker 4: all that easily, so I think that the offensive improvements

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Speaker 4: maybe it'll come under Gerard, but it's going to take

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Speaker 4: a little bit more time. And like I said, like

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Speaker 4: they've been really good defensively. So this game has all

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Speaker 4: the right ingredients for a draw. Plus two thirty gets

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Speaker 4: me in on a tie in East Anglia on Tuesday afternoon. Anthony,

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Speaker 4: what do you have for this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, not a ton. I agree with you.

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Speaker 3: I lean towards the under, but at two and a

155
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Speaker 3: quarter there's just very little room there for some flukes

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Speaker 3: to go against you.

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Speaker 2: You know, we saw that in the Palace Everton game today.

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Speaker 3: I said that last week, where you know, I said

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Speaker 3: under two and a quarter, but there's not enough room

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Speaker 3: for me to play it. Sure enough, pretty quiet first

161
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Speaker 3: half and then all of a sudden, a couple of

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Speaker 3: wonder goals and it's three to one and you lose.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not loving either side in this game. I

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Speaker 3: want to credit the defense of aston Villa. They allowed

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Speaker 3: twenty five passes into their own penalty area against Liverpool,

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Speaker 3: which is pretty high and above what Liverpool typically averages

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Speaker 3: in a game this year. But they were excellent and

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Speaker 3: defending in their own penalty area, and I think that's

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Speaker 3: been the number one improvement that I've seen from Gerard,

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Speaker 3: from Smith Pryor, in the sense that the mistakes that

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Speaker 3: we were seeing have not quite been there so far

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Speaker 3: under Gerard, I think it's very difficult to see how

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Speaker 3: Norwich gets on the board here. They do have some

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Speaker 3: attacking regression coming, but I don't really love backing the

175
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Speaker 3: Canaries on the road here either, so I'm going to

176
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Speaker 3: stay away from this one for now, And if it

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Speaker 3: gets steamed either direction, maybe I'll make a play, you know,

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Speaker 3: if it gets down the door at Villa, you know

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Speaker 3: is a pick'em, you know, minus one twenty, then I'd

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Speaker 3: probably hop in on Villa on the road here.

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Speaker 2: But at the current number, no interest. PJ.

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Speaker 4: You're kind of waiting for the market movement here as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's kind of waiting on the market. Maybe

184
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Speaker 1: play Norwich if aston Villa gets steamed. No bertrand Trior

185
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Speaker 1: or Lyon Bailey for aston Villa, so that obviously hurts

186
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Speaker 1: them offensively. Norwich hasn't been that bad under Dean Smith.

187
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Speaker 1: You know, they've won the expected goals battle about half

188
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Speaker 1: of his matches, which is a massive, massive improvement from

189
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Speaker 1: where they were under Farca. The biggest thing is that

190
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Speaker 1: I don't really know. You know, Astonville offensively hasn't really

191
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Speaker 1: provided much going forward under Jerrard, They've been really good defensively,

192
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Speaker 1: So this one, like you said, could have zero, zero

193
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Speaker 1: or maybe one one draw written all over it. So

194
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Speaker 1: it's a wait and see for me. I don't know

195
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Speaker 1: if we'll get Norwich at at a decent price at

196
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Speaker 1: plus half a goal, but if something happens before the match,

197
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Speaker 1: then you know, you probably see. If I can get

198
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Speaker 1: Norwich plus half a goal at minus one twenty or better,

199
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Speaker 1: I'll probably end up playing that, but that it's a

200
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Speaker 1: stay away from me.

201
00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,319
Speaker 4: Went to the other end of the table with Manchester

202
00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:03,880
Speaker 4: City the pacesetters right now in the Premier League at

203
00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,800
Speaker 4: thirty eight points, Liverpool thirty seven, Chelsea thirty six and

204
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Speaker 4: then west Ham at twenty eight in front of a

205
00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,720
Speaker 4: whole host of teams for that top four spot. But

206
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Speaker 4: Manchester City they're minus seven hundred home favorites against Leeds United,

207
00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,079
Speaker 4: who are nineteen to one on the money line to

208
00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,200
Speaker 4: draw is eight to one. This is a Tuesday three

209
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Speaker 4: pm kickoffs, So we're getting some staggered starts on Tuesday,

210
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Speaker 4: which is nice to get fifteen minutes between each game

211
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Speaker 4: to start. And this sets up for a city blowout,

212
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Speaker 4: I think, because we talk about it all the time, right,

213
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Speaker 4: Like Leeds United, their defense is just tremendously leaky, Like

214
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Speaker 4: they are a team that gives up a lot going

215
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Speaker 4: in both directions, they create a lot, they give up

216
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Speaker 4: a lot, and against Manchester City an elite defense, maybe

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Speaker 4: the best defense in the league, maybe one of the

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Speaker 4: best defenses in all of Europe. I don't see Leeds

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Speaker 4: United being able to create as much, especially against a

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Speaker 4: team that's managed by someone like Pep Guardiola who can

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Speaker 4: kind of understand the nuances of Marcelo Bielsa's style. But

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Speaker 4: the alt line is just so expensive too, Like it's

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Speaker 4: like it's not even worth chasing it. Like usually you

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Speaker 4: want a big number to take a team minus one

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Speaker 4: and a half or minus two and a half, but

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Speaker 4: unfortunate that is not the case. Bookmakers are smart people,

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Speaker 4: so they probably assume people were looking that way. So

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Speaker 4: I'm going to pass on this one. Maybe if I can,

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Speaker 4: it would be like Leeds United plus two or nothing

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Speaker 4: for you, but I'm in all certainty passing BJ What

231
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Speaker 4: do you have?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like both teams to score no at minus

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Speaker 1: one fifty. So Anthony kind of inspired me because he's

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Speaker 1: winning all these both teams to score bets and I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of feel like I'm, you know, missing out on

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Speaker 1: the party. So I built out some both teams to

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Speaker 1: score projections this weekend and I have this both team

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Speaker 1: to score no projected at minus one ninety one. Because

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Speaker 1: Manchester City's defense is the best in the world right now.

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Speaker 1: They're only allowing point five to nine non penalty expected

241
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Speaker 1: goals per match, six point five to six shots per ninety,

242
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Speaker 1: seven point three to one box centuries per ninety and

243
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Speaker 1: only seven big scoring chances in sixteen matches. Those are

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Speaker 1: not only the best marks in England, but the best

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Speaker 1: marks and all of Europe. So I really don't know

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Speaker 1: how leads offensively Without Patrick Bamford, without Calvin Phillips, without Rodrigo.

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Speaker 1: We're all gonna be out for this match. Are going

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Speaker 1: to create anything really of substance against this defense. You know,

249
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Speaker 1: Manchester City they haven't allowed an opponent to create over

250
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Speaker 1: one expected goal since October thirtieth against Crystal Palace and

251
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Speaker 1: they were Town of Man for forty five minutes in

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Speaker 1: that match, so they've just been incredibly dominant. I just

253
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Speaker 1: don't see how Leads is actually going to get on

254
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Speaker 1: the board here. I mean, it's gonna have to be

255
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Speaker 1: some type of flukey league goal. And Pep Cordial is

256
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Speaker 1: so good at changing his tactics and I've kind of

257
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Speaker 1: been noticing this with City is that they're very good

258
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Speaker 1: at playing with you know, a lot of speed and

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Speaker 1: direct attacking if they're facing a team that you know,

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Speaker 1: plays a high line and get behind them, which they

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Speaker 1: might be able do against Leads, and they're very good.

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Speaker 1: It's also slowing down a match and just holding possession

263
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Speaker 1: and being very pragmatic, and that's probably what they're going

264
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Speaker 1: to do in this match, given how high tempo Leads

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Speaker 1: is and how much they're going to press them. So

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Speaker 1: I like both teams to score no at minus one fifty.

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Speaker 4: I heard something about Manchester City that I agree with wholeheartedly,

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Speaker 4: which is it almost seems like the team kind of

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Speaker 4: decides who's going to be the best player in the

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Speaker 4: world for the next couple of months, like used to

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Speaker 4: be De Bruyn, and then de Bruyne would say, Okay,

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Speaker 4: you know, like ok going to one last year went

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Speaker 4: through that incredible stretch and Rubin Dias went through that stretch,

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Speaker 4: and right now it's Bernardo Silva, like he's the one

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Speaker 4: who's one of the best players in the world. It's

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Speaker 4: it's really funny how they do that. Like you said,

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Speaker 4: like the best manager in the world, maybe the best

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Speaker 4: roster top to bottom in the world. And the defense

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Speaker 4: has just been incredible, so it's just really hard to

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Speaker 4: imagine leads getting went over here, Anthony, what have you

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Speaker 4: been seeing from the Citizens lately?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they played eight home matches this year. They've conceded

283
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Speaker 3: three point three expected goals in those eight matches, so

284
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Speaker 3: pretty much back to the boat, which that's true, Yeah, absurd,

285
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Speaker 3: And when you look at their overall expected goals numbers,

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Speaker 3: they're pretty much even with Liverpool.

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Speaker 2: But you know, in terms of x.

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Speaker 3: G ratio, which I think matters, like you're expected goals

289
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Speaker 3: four over expected goals against how much you dominating your opponents.

290
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Speaker 3: City have the best underlying metrics in the league and

291
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Speaker 3: still remain title favorites for that reason. They're actually underperforming

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Speaker 3: their expected goals forward. Now after the poor finishing day

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Speaker 3: they had against Wolves, which is a scary thought given

294
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Speaker 3: that I know BJ's been playing a lot of City

295
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Speaker 3: unders and they've been great bets. I think the market

296
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Speaker 3: still hasn't caught up. Maybe here three and a half

297
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Speaker 3: I lean towards the under just because I think I

298
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Speaker 3: don't see leads scoring here, but City having attacking regression

299
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Speaker 3: coming should be a pretty scary site for the entire

300
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Speaker 3: league overall. Here, though, I'm gonna end up staying away

301
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Speaker 3: from it. I don't think I bet a City match

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Speaker 3: in a while, so maybe I'll have to jump in

303
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Speaker 3: at some point in the coming weeks.

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Speaker 2: But right now it's a pass a.

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Speaker 4: Matchup that both teams to score. Should probably be No.

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Speaker 4: Minus five hundred Brighton plus one oh five at home

307
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,439
Speaker 4: against Wolverhampton, who are three to one on the money line.

308
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Speaker 4: The draws plus two twenty five. This is Wednesday afternoon,

309
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Speaker 4: two thirty pm kickoff. Two great defenses and very very

310
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Speaker 4: pedestrian offenses. The over unders set it too right now.

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Speaker 4: This match screams draw to me, and that's where I'm going.

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Speaker 4: Two teams that are pretty lumbering going forward and really

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Speaker 4: stout on their defensive ends, So I mean it's almost

314
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Speaker 4: impossible for me to look away from the draw on

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Speaker 4: this one. So that's where I'm heading Wolves Brighton draw

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Speaker 4: plus two twenty five on the South Coast BJ. What

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Speaker 4: do you have?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like both teams to score no at minus

319
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Speaker 1: one thirty five. What has happened to the Wolves offense

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Speaker 1: that we all fell in love with at the beginning

321
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Speaker 1: of the season. I mean, they have only created over

322
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Speaker 1: one expected goal one time in their last six matches

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Speaker 1: and they're gonna be without ral Hemaniz for this one,

324
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Speaker 1: who got maybe one of the dumbest back to back

325
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Speaker 1: yellow cards I think I've ever seen in a soccer match.

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Speaker 1: It was actually kind of funny. It just I mean

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Speaker 1: obviously it completely you know, threw Wolves out of I

328
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Speaker 1: mean any chance of creating anything in that match. But

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Speaker 1: they have not created a big scoring chance in their

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Speaker 1: last six matches. They have zero in their last six

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Speaker 1: and now they're dead last in the Premier League in

332
00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,920
Speaker 1: shots per ninety at only ten point three seven. So

333
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,640
Speaker 1: going up against a very well organized defensive side like

334
00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:30,840
Speaker 1: Brighton who is only allowing one point one four non

335
00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:33,400
Speaker 1: penalty expected goals per match and have allowed the third

336
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Speaker 1: fewest big scoring chances. I'm not sure that Wolves is

337
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,680
Speaker 1: going to create anything of high quality in this match.

338
00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,360
Speaker 1: And you know, Brighton offensively has been pretty bad overall

339
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Speaker 1: for the season, but the last three matches they have

340
00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,800
Speaker 1: created four point six expected goals combined. However, they are

341
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Speaker 1: going to be without two of their best attacking midfielders,

342
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Speaker 1: Adam Lailana and the Andre Trussard, so that obviously hurts them.

343
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Speaker 1: And they're going against a Wolves defense that is still

344
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,280
Speaker 1: pretty good, very well organized, only allowing one point one

345
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,720
Speaker 1: to nine non penalty expected goals per So we have

346
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Speaker 1: two teams who are also fantastic at pressing inside their

347
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,760
Speaker 1: own final third and Brighton, who plays at a very

348
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Speaker 1: slow build up type of pace. I agree with you, Michael.

349
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Speaker 1: This has zero zero or Brighton one zero when just

350
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,240
Speaker 1: written all over it. So I have both teams to

351
00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,000
Speaker 1: score no projected at minus one sixty one, so I

352
00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,080
Speaker 1: like him the current ods and minus one thirty five

353
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:21,480
Speaker 1: and I'd play up to minus one forty.

354
00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,960
Speaker 4: We get some disagreement on the show this week, is Anthony,

355
00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,280
Speaker 4: You're seeing this thing shake out a differently wide open

356
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Speaker 4: these two teams.

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Speaker 3: The numbers state I will I won't go that far.

358
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,560
Speaker 3: What I'll say is I'm buying low on the Wolves

359
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:36,880
Speaker 3: attack here. I mean, we have seen and BJ's right.

360
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 3: Everything he said is true. This offense, this attack has

361
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:40,720
Speaker 3: been one of the worst in the league for the

362
00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:44,440
Speaker 3: last six weeks. No matter what they've tried, it hasn't worked. Now, granted,

363
00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,120
Speaker 3: they have had a relatively tough schedule in that stretch,

364
00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:51,240
Speaker 3: playing west Ham, playing Liverpool, playing Manchester City. They also

365
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:54,080
Speaker 3: didn't score against Norwich or Burnley, so pretty concerning. But

366
00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:57,120
Speaker 3: at a certain point they're going to start scoring goals again.

367
00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,280
Speaker 3: I don't believe that given their talent level. They have

368
00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:02,200
Speaker 3: solid attacking players. I don't think they're one of the

369
00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,200
Speaker 3: four or five worst attacks in the league when this

370
00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 3: all shakes out. So I'm banking on them moving back

371
00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:08,880
Speaker 3: up the table and attack a little bit. And the

372
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,200
Speaker 3: same thing with Brighton, who's also now under performing their

373
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 3: expected goals four yet again. Brighton also maybe out a

374
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,080
Speaker 3: couple of defenders as well as Trossard and Lallana. They

375
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,280
Speaker 3: actually may have been a little fortunate too to get

376
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 3: this game against Spurs canceled this weekend because they're going

377
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 3: to be out multiple players, including Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy.

378
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:30,160
Speaker 3: So there's some interesting angles to consider here, but really

379
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,880
Speaker 3: I'm just banking on both attacks finally waking up and

380
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 3: having a good performance here, and given the talent on

381
00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 3: both teams, I think that the recent performances has deflated

382
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:41,120
Speaker 3: this number a little too low.

383
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 4: We shall see, Hey, guys, burn these back. By the way,

384
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,320
Speaker 4: they're plus one fifteen home favorites against Watford in a

385
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,280
Speaker 4: relegation six pointer. Watford's plus two forty five on the

386
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 4: money line that druws plus two fifteen other Wednesday two

387
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,040
Speaker 4: thirty pm kickoff, Neworik City at the bottom of the

388
00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:57,400
Speaker 4: table at ten points. Newcastle also there at ten but

389
00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,440
Speaker 4: just ahead on gold differential. Burnley at eleven played one

390
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,360
Speaker 4: less game than most of the teams in the league,

391
00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,600
Speaker 4: and then Watford's at thirteen points, just above the drop zone.

392
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,760
Speaker 4: How about this. God loves Sean Deitch, God love Burnley.

393
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,960
Speaker 4: The weather at turf Moore today looked so Burnley, the

394
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 4: game was so Burnley. Burnley zero goals for one goal

395
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:19,200
Speaker 4: against in their last three matches. On the other side

396
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 4: of the coin, Watford four losses on the spin here

397
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:25,199
Speaker 4: twenty one total goals in their last five matches, and

398
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,359
Speaker 4: that includes a win over Manchester United. Both teams to

399
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 4: score is cashed in all five, So two very very

400
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,800
Speaker 4: different teams in very very different form battling out. Like

401
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,480
Speaker 4: I said in a relegation six pointer here, I think

402
00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 4: it's time to back the clarts here. It's plus one

403
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,560
Speaker 4: fifteen right now. I'm hoping that gets maybe a little higher.

404
00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,040
Speaker 4: But I think it's Burnley for me or nothing. God,

405
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,440
Speaker 4: I love this team, got I love this manager. It's

406
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 4: got a set up to be a hilarious match. I

407
00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:53,159
Speaker 4: think at turf Moore Wednesday afternoon, BJ, what are you

408
00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:54,320
Speaker 4: thinking for this one? Yeah?

409
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 1: I do like Burnley, but I need plus one twenty

410
00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,120
Speaker 1: five or better to bet it, so I have them projected.

411
00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:00,760
Speaker 1: I believe around plus one oh five.

412
00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:01,160
Speaker 4: Listen.

413
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,160
Speaker 1: I can go through and try to make a case

414
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,399
Speaker 1: for the Burnley offense, but I really can. I mean,

415
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,440
Speaker 1: their bottom five and pretty much every metric we look

416
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 1: at except their number one cross is complete in the

417
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,000
Speaker 1: eighteen yard box. But Watford is third best in the

418
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,560
Speaker 1: Premier League get preventing crosses into their own eighteen yard box,

419
00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:16,840
Speaker 1: so it kind of cancels out there and Obviously, the

420
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 1: Watford defense has been really, really bad playing against a

421
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,639
Speaker 1: very difficult schedule. They got pinned in the entire second

422
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,600
Speaker 1: half against Brentford, but that's probably not going to happen

423
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:27,600
Speaker 1: against Burnley, who likes to sit back. Obviously, there four

424
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 1: four two. The biggest thing though, Watford has allowed the

425
00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 1: second most expected goals off of corners this season, which

426
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 1: is a nightmare because that's basically how Burnley creates all

427
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:40,040
Speaker 1: of their chances, So that's not good. But at that

428
00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:43,199
Speaker 1: same token, Burnley's defense has been pretty wide open. They

429
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,679
Speaker 1: haven't really been very well structured like they have in

430
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 1: the past. So I do need plus one twenty five

431
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 1: or better to you know, get three and a half

432
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,400
Speaker 1: percent value on it, So Burnley plus one twenty five

433
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 1: are better. Hopefully we get to that number by match time.

434
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:57,720
Speaker 3: So I think the most interesting thing here is whether

435
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,879
Speaker 3: or not Watford chooses to treat this more like a

436
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:03,440
Speaker 3: relegation six pointer, or if they keep playing the way

437
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 3: that they've been playing the last few matches. Like Michael said,

438
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 3: they've been so open at both ends of the pitch,

439
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 3: conceding goals, scoring goals left and right. They have the

440
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,159
Speaker 3: attacking talent to give this Burnley defense some serious issues,

441
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,160
Speaker 3: which is a concern. But also BJ took my stat

442
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 3: on the corners. They've been very good off corners Burnley

443
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 3: has They almost scored off one today in the game

444
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,359
Speaker 3: that really could have gone either way in the final

445
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,359
Speaker 3: minutes against the top five to six team in the

446
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 3: prem so an encouraging performance. They have been much better

447
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 3: at home they've been on the road, as tends to

448
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,640
Speaker 3: be the case with Burnley. I just don't really trust them,

449
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,600
Speaker 3: and especially since Maxwell Corney appears like he's probably not

450
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:38,359
Speaker 3: going to play to get the margin to win this match,

451
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,120
Speaker 3: so I'm going to ultimately probably stay away.

452
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,280
Speaker 1: It's also going to finally stop reigning at Turf More

453
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:44,639
Speaker 1: on Tuesday.

454
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,119
Speaker 2: So never bet against rain in England.

455
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, we might actually have some overcast skies instead of

456
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 1: just downpour.

457
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,239
Speaker 4: First dry day Turf Moore in six years since they

458
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,400
Speaker 4: got to the Premier League. I would say, all right,

459
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 4: let's move on Crystal Palace plus one thirty five at

460
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 4: home against Southampton who are plus two fifteen. Southampton a

461
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 4: team that led us down immensely over the weekend in

462
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 4: a no show effort against Arsenal. The draws plus two

463
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:11,360
Speaker 4: thirty five two thirty pm kickoff on Wednesday. Palace an

464
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 4: impressive win over a lackluster Everton team. It must say

465
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:16,960
Speaker 4: it looked like Everydon showed up for about fifteen minutes

466
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 4: of this game. Crystal Palace was able to control the tempo.

467
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 4: Solomon ron Don gets a lucky goal and for fifteen

468
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 4: minutes Palace was on shaky ground. Everton was a little

469
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 4: scrappy and got them off their game. But in the

470
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 4: end it was off or not as Krone Gallagher scored

471
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 4: a wonder goal in the dying minutes to secure all

472
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,199
Speaker 4: three points for an impressive Palace team, a team that

473
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 4: I think is legitimately good and I think Patrick Vieira

474
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 4: has done a really good job. This number looks about

475
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,360
Speaker 4: right as Palace for me or nothing, I think right now.

476
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 4: Their defense is what is driving the bus for me

477
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 4: on this handicapped second best team in the Premier League

478
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 4: right now in terms of big chances allowed going into

479
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 4: the weekend and fourth best in non penalty expected goals allowed.

480
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 4: They're a cohesive unit, They're tough to break down and

481
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 4: they have the talent to nick the goal when they

482
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 4: need it. In a coin flip game, and that sets

483
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 4: up well against a Southampton team who strength is its

484
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 4: offense and creating chances, they don't finish them. If Palace

485
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 4: can keep this game kind of muffled. I like their

486
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 4: chances here, So plus one thirty five I think is

487
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,439
Speaker 4: a good enough number for me. Bej you joining me

488
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 4: on the Eagles here?

489
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like Crystal Palace. I mean the home

490
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 1: run splits for Palace are actually quite drastic, plus six

491
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 1: point one expected goal differential at home versus a minus

492
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 1: three point expected goal differential on the road. You know,

493
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 1: we talked obviously their defense is playing fantastic, you know,

494
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:28,879
Speaker 1: top five and non penalty expected go as allowed. But

495
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 1: offensively they are improving. You know, the last eight matches

496
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 1: they're averaging one point four to six expected goals per

497
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: match and have created twelve big scoring chances in those

498
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 1: eight matches compared to just six over their first eight

499
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 1: matches of the season. That's going to be huge against Southampton,

500
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 1: which we spoke about last week, has allowed the third

501
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,719
Speaker 1: most big scoring chances in the Premier League. So for

502
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 1: a Chrystal Palace team that's been incredible defensively allowing close

503
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,919
Speaker 1: to only one non penalty expected goal per match. Additionally,

504
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 1: they pressed an incredibly high rate, second most pressures in

505
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 1: the Premier League. South Anton's bottom five versus pressure. This

506
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 1: is just a great matchup for Crystal Palace at home

507
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 1: where they've been much better than on the road. I

508
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 1: have Palace protected at plus one twenty four, so a

509
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 1: little bit of value on Palace at plus one thirty five.

510
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 1: But given the home road splits, I think I really

511
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 1: do like the Eagles to grab all three points.

512
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:17,679
Speaker 4: Anthony. It's not a plan on the side for you,

513
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 4: but going back to your bread and butter BTTs, where

514
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:21,640
Speaker 4: are you going?

515
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually my favorite bet of this little midweek action.

516
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,719
Speaker 3: I've both teams to score is minus one fifteen here.

517
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,879
Speaker 3: I think it's still pretty cheap. Palace has been the

518
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 3: third best defense in the league. Does anybody expect that

519
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 3: to continue forever? I know they've had a little actually

520
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 3: been a little bit unlucky defensively in front of goal

521
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,719
Speaker 3: in terms of keeping shots out. Their post shot expected

522
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 3: goal numbers are right around where they've conceded. But they've conceded,

523
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 3: you know, an extra six goals or so based on

524
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 3: what you'd expect. That's been down to poor goalkeeper play

525
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 3: and that tends to be pretty noisy and regrets a

526
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 3: little bit.

527
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:53,439
Speaker 2: So not great on that front.

528
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 3: But Southampton at the other end again continues to run

529
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,679
Speaker 3: just ridiculously cold. Had a bunch of chances against Aaron Ramsdale,

530
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 3: could not get through zero point six expected goals in

531
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 3: the end, but really felt like they were on the

532
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,640
Speaker 3: verge of breaking through, and it took a few really

533
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 3: good saves from him, especially, you know, in the second

534
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 3: half of that game, when Arsenal was clearly going to

535
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 3: win it, but still Southampton was in the mix, trying

536
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 3: to create chances, still going full tilt we've seen with Southampton,

537
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 3: and the first goal from Arsenal kind of you know,

538
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 3: signifies the breaking point there. They were so close to

539
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,719
Speaker 3: closing down and winning the ball a couple of times,

540
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 3: and then once Arsenal breaks through that first line and

541
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 3: then they get soccer running up the right wing. Southampton

542
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 3: con sides a ton of big scoring chances because they

543
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 3: press so much that they don't have numbers behind. They

544
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 3: can see goals off of that. The question is, is Palace

545
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 3: the team that's going to really take advantage of that.

546
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 3: I'm not so sure. I do think Palace will score

547
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 3: here because, like Bja mentioned, they've been excellent in attack

548
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 3: at home and they'll be able to force Southampton into

549
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 3: mistakes because they're not particularly good at playing out of

550
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 3: the back either. They also have some injury concerns here,

551
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 3: and the biggest one, I think the one that we

552
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: failed to mention on the pod Wiley Cavalira starting for

553
00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:00,640
Speaker 3: Southampton last week because McCarthy is out and is out

554
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: and appeers McCarthy will be out again. Unto the Peers,

555
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,439
Speaker 3: Foster is going to be out again, which means its

556
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 3: round two with Willy Cabiro and he was absolutely awful.

557
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,439
Speaker 3: Should have saved the second goal, poor job coming to

558
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 3: clean the corner on the third goal. There was a

559
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 3: fourth goal that got ruled out that he also messed

560
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 3: up on. So really not looking to trust Willy Caberro

561
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 3: to keep a clean sheet here. So I think that

562
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 3: both teams to score at minus one fifteen is good

563
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 3: value Peaks and Valleys.

564
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,159
Speaker 4: Peaks and Valley's arsenal plus one fifteen currently at a

565
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 4: peak after the win over Southampton, only two points off

566
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 4: of the top four. Somehow, this team makes me sick.

567
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 4: West Ham the team they're chasing for the top four

568
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 4: are plus two point thirty five traveling to the Emirates.

569
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 4: The draws plus two sixty five three pm kickoff on Wednesday.

570
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 4: I think in terms of the stakes, you can make

571
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 4: an argument that it's either this match or the showdown

572
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 4: between Watford and Burnley with the highest stakes in terms

573
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 4: of the standings. God, it's this Arsenal team drives me nuts.

574
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 4: You're either buying low or selling high at all times

575
00:24:58,119 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 4: with them, and I think right now is a good

576
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 4: time not only to sell high in them, but also

577
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,160
Speaker 4: by low on a west Ham team off of their

578
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 4: unexciting Neil nil draw at turf More against Burnley. The

579
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 4: Arsenal you know they deserve the win over Southampton is

580
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 4: Anthony kind of just outlined. And we know that this

581
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 4: west Ham back line has been decimated with injuries. But

582
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 4: even with that, I'm not totally sure how much really

583
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 4: separates these two teams in terms of their current form,

584
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 4: their managers and you know, yeah, Arsenal has home field

585
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 4: advantage here, but I just I don't know. So I

586
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,439
Speaker 4: think the number is definitely good enough to back a

587
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 4: really good west Ham team on the road against an

588
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 4: Arsenal team that is as inconsistent as they come. Bjay

589
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 4: as the Arsenal Tragic on the show. How are you

590
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 4: seeing this one play out?

591
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:44,239
Speaker 1: Well? I just I really hate with the situation I've

592
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,919
Speaker 1: been put in with this team because obviously on this show,

593
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 1: I try to be as unbiased as possible and you know,

594
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: give you guys, you know, essentially the best possible picks,

595
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 1: no matter who I root for, And literally every single

596
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: week I have to come on here and just say

597
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,400
Speaker 1: Arsenal's overvalued and I have to bet against Arsenal vers

598
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 1: in a week. So it's not really fun me watching

599
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: them pour in three goals against Southampton, like knowing I

600
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 1: have Southampton plus one in the back, So it's kind

601
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: of I'm in a weird spot right now. But this

602
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 1: is another situation where Arsenal is completely overvalued. And I

603
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 1: understand west Ham's defensive issues and how thin they are defensively,

604
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: but Arsenal, this is a classic Arsenal against a good opponent.

605
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 1: We've seen them crumble every single time they've faced some

606
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: at least somewhat of a decent offense. Two point nine

607
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 1: expected goals to Chelsea four point three expected goals to

608
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: man City, four point six expected goals to Liverpool and

609
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,120
Speaker 1: one point nine expected goals to Manchester United. So going

610
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 1: up against a full strength west Ham attack that is

611
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 1: top five and non penalty expected goals shots per ninety

612
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances is a nightmare. And I don't

613
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: think that west Ham, being as thin as they are

614
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 1: in the back line is really going to make up

615
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: for that. And also, you know, having two fantastic defensive

616
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 1: midfielders and Thomas Soytchek and Declan Rice really helps out

617
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 1: when you have those issues at the back, you know,

618
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: rather than you know, a team like Arsenal who have

619
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 1: grand shotgun party, who have been out of form and

620
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 1: actually not been that great this season. So purely, if

621
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: we just look at it expected expected goal differentials, Arsenal

622
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: minus four point one on the season, west Ham plus

623
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 1: four point three. So I don't really understand why Arsenal

624
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 1: is getting this much respect, especially in the market. I

625
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: have this match projected pretty close to a pick them.

626
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 1: So if you can find west Ham plus half a

627
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,880
Speaker 1: goal and minus one thirty five, I do think there's

628
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: some value on that.

629
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 4: Anthony, come on, jump on in the Water's fine.

630
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 2: No, not pre game I'm passing.

631
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 3: Look, I think west Ham is probably a tiny bit undervalued.

632
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 3: I show a little bit of value on them as well,

633
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 3: but I think you can get better number live here.

634
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 3: West Ham have started slow against many of their in

635
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 3: many of their bigger games this year, and then kind

636
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:43,880
Speaker 3: of grown into the game. We saw that against Chelsea.

637
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 3: They also played a pretty poor first half against Burnley

638
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 3: on the road here, you know, was not in a

639
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 3: good spot.

640
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 2: But still we're not very good.

641
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:51,679
Speaker 3: And we've seen Arsenal have been one of the best

642
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 3: teams in the league in the opening twenty to twenty

643
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 3: five minutes. I want to see how west Ham's makeshift

644
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 3: back line is going to cope with the Arsenal attacking talent.

645
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 3: Obama Yang is still going to be out for this game,

646
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 3: so it's gonna be Lacazette again. Better goalkeeper play from

647
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 3: west Ham than Southampton had on Saturday, for sure, which

648
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 3: should help. But I think if Arsenal scores early, you'll

649
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 3: be seeing me put a live betting on the Hammers.

650
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 3: But pregame, I'm gonna sit this one out. I also

651
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:16,919
Speaker 3: don't hate the idea of alive over you know, if

652
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 3: it starts slow.

653
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 2: I do think both.

654
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 3: Defenses are vulnerable here, but generally going to pass on

655
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 3: the pregame numbers.

656
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 4: The bet regret for me the past week was not

657
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 4: sticking to my guns and just blindly betting somehow against Newcastle,

658
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 4: no matter the number, just finding a way in to

659
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 4: fade them hadn't paid off in the past couple weeks

660
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 4: prior to their match against Leicester, and Leicester I knew

661
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 4: they were coming off short rests because they have to

662
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 4: play the Europa League and they didn't look impressive in

663
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 4: their previous two matches. So I at it and what happens.

664
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 4: Leicester boots them off the pitch four and they'll win

665
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 4: at the King Power those Saint Foxes there plus one

666
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 4: to ten at home against Tottenham Hotspur, who are going

667
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 4: to play a game, it seems for the first time

668
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 4: in a long time, it feels like Settenhoughs plus two

669
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 4: thirty coming off the COVID break. They also had two

670
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 4: weeks before prior to that the snow game ruled out

671
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 4: against Burnley, so they played I think one Premier League

672
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 4: match in the past three weeks or so. Everyone else

673
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 4: is playing matches every other day. Tottenham and Antonio Conte

674
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 4: are in his lab, getting themselves ready to start their

675
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 4: revolution under their new manager. The draw on this match

676
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 4: is plus two eighty five a Thursday two thirty pm kickoff.

677
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 4: Still a lot up in the air for this one

678
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:21,479
Speaker 4: in terms of lineups, so it's kind of hard to

679
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 4: judge or handicap the match. I would say I'm closer

680
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 4: on Tottenham than I am unless they're at the current number,

681
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 4: but it's definitely not big enough for me to jump

682
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 4: in considering what they're coming off of over the past

683
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 4: week or so. Anthony, if bj is the Arsenal tragic

684
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 4: on this show, you are the optimistic Spurs fan who

685
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 4: blindly backs his team no matter what it, never bets

686
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 4: against them, so what do you have for us?

687
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 2: That's definitely not true.

688
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 3: I bet against them against Brentford and lost, so maybe

689
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 3: I shouldn't have done that.

690
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: It's a really interesting situation.

691
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 3: So Tottenham returned to training as of today and they

692
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 3: eligible players who were not in the COVID protocols were

693
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 3: able to train, and through the grape vine of you know,

694
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 3: photos and people sneaking around the training ground, they've been

695
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 3: able to determine some of the players who are available.

696
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 3: Harry Kane, Hugo Laris are available. Those are the two

697
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 3: that the main two that were confirmed in Delhi Ali

698
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 3: as well, but we don't know the extent of who

699
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 3: else is truly out and not available for this match.

700
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 3: We also don't know if the match is going to

701
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 3: happen right now. It's on as scheduled. If it's at

702
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 3: the current number and Spurs have most of their starting

703
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 3: eleven in, I'll be playing Tottenham at this number. They're

704
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 3: very undervalued here on the road to get a point.

705
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: At least, they've been significantly improved in their four games

706
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 3: under Antonio Conte. They've created six point nine expected goals,

707
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 3: they've allowed three point five, so pretty much doubling up

708
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 3: their opponents. And while they haven't played a tough schedule

709
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 3: playing Everton Leads, Brentford and Norwich, that's considerably better than Spurs.

710
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 3: We're playing against those inferior opponents earlier in the season

711
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 3: when they were outplayed by very average teams like Crystal

712
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 3: Palace and you know parts of the match against Villa.

713
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 2: So Tonham are clearly on the trajectory up.

714
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,479
Speaker 3: But the COVID situation really throws the wrench into everything

715
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 3: they're going to be playing a ton of matches in

716
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 3: January and February and at the end of the year.

717
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 3: But right now, at the current number, assuming everybody's good

718
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 3: to go, I'll be playing Tottenham. If they're not and

719
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 3: you know, this gets called off or a ton of

720
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 3: guys are out, I'll probably just pass.

721
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: You know, we spoke about Lester they had a COVID

722
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 1: situation as well last week. Well if you look at

723
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 1: the lineup today against Newcastle, it was pretty much a

724
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: full strength squad from top to bottom, so really no

725
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: worries about you know whoever you know had COVID with Leicester.

726
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: So I agree with Anthony. If there's a situation where

727
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: a lot of Tottenham's you know, key players are out,

728
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: then this is a plan on lesser than that. It's

729
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: just it's really hard to Handicapenin's honestly, just to pass.

730
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 4: We'll travel to Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea are sitting at

731
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 4: minus four twenty five home favorites against the most pedestrian

732
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 4: team in the Premier League, Everdon thirteenth to one on

733
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 4: the money line, the Drusts five to one. This is

734
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 4: a Thursday two forty five came kick off. I thought

735
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 4: the Everdon win over Arsenal on Monday was going to

736
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 4: kind of galvanize the squad and show them that, you know,

737
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 4: the whole is kind of better than the suff of

738
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 4: its part. And this is a team that's very thin

739
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 4: at the moment, but if they are on the same

740
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: page and everyone is playing hard and to the system,

741
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 4: you can become hard to beat. That wasn't the case

742
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 4: against Crystal Palace at all. It was incredibly frustrating a

743
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 4: dire I would call it a cowardly performance from my toffies.

744
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 4: And that's why it kind of really sickens me to

745
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 4: say this everten or nothing here because this Chelsea number

746
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 4: I think is outrageous. Four point seventy five expecta goles

747
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 4: allowed in their less three matches. But and Everdence, they

748
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 4: do create like they are not a cohesive unit at all,

749
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 4: but they do find a way to scrap together a

750
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 4: couple of moments where they put defenses under pressure. Damari

751
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 4: Gray on one flank Andros Talents and on the other.

752
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 4: There's those are guys who can make something out of nothing.

753
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 4: And obviously m Charlison is in that mold as well,

754
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 4: and he's going to be the best player in the

755
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 4: team until Dominic Calvert Luhman comes back, but that's if

756
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 4: Charlison plays. He came off early with a little bit

757
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 4: of a CAF issue, but he did seem like he

758
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 4: wanted to continue. So I'm right now assuming he's in,

759
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 4: and if he is, I will be on Everden in

760
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 4: some way or another, whether it's a spread or the

761
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 4: money line, and really just hate myself for the ninety

762
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 4: minutes while this match goes on. BJ You you've been

763
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 4: a staunch ever supporter as well. It's just so bad.

764
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: Yeah. So the Chelsea defensive regression is just coming in

765
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 1: full force right now. Eight conceded goals in their last

766
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 1: three matches against west Ham Senate and the Leads. Mendy

767
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: seems to have kind of lost his confidence, so it

768
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 1: has kind of questioning if Chelsea is actually a true

769
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: title contender or if we just have a two horse

770
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: race between Swist City and Liverpool. The biggest problem though,

771
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: is they need in goal content back like they just

772
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 1: don't have any bails in the lamp that provides what

773
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: he can provide, which is pressing at a high rate,

774
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: going box to box and you know, helping out the

775
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: back line of defense. They just don't have that guy.

776
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 1: But this one really comes down to it if for

777
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: Charlestoner's playing or not, because Solomon Rone don't just it's

778
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 1: it's kind of tough to watch at this point in

779
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: his career. But if Charleston's out, they don't really have

780
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 1: much going forward. And I'll be honest, I do show

781
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: a tiny bit of value on Everton plus half a goal,

782
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: you know, plus one ten, but man, I mean without Mina,

783
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: potentially Allen Dominic, Calvert Lewin and Tom Davies and potentially

784
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: now we're Charleston. It's really hard for me to sit

785
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: here and tell our listeners to bet on Everton against

786
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 1: the Chelsea team that you know, obviously is overperforming but

787
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 1: is still you know, a top obviously a top three

788
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 1: team in England. So instead, I'm gonna sit back and

789
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait and when for Charleston is playing and

790
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 1: I can get plus one and a half at plus

791
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 1: one ten or better, I'll probably end up playing it.

792
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 1: But I'm kind of hoping that Chelsea gets steamed and

793
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 1: we can potentially get Everton maybe at plus two and

794
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 1: maybe minus one twenty year better.

795
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 4: And another player who's not been in the squad is

796
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 4: Luca Dean, who's their best.

797
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 1: To full spend.

798
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 4: Suspension for some but this is this is the problem,

799
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 4: Like it would be a lot easier to suggest to

800
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 4: bet on Evert and if the squad, if the team

801
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 4: was on the same page, which they're clearly not. So

802
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,399
Speaker 4: the fact that they are still getting some moments out

803
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 4: of the last couple of months is a little bit

804
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 4: impressive because of just how herky jerky they look. When

805
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 4: you're watching. It looks like eleven players who maybe just

806
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 4: met before the match and are just like, all right,

807
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 4: we'll play together. But that's how they play, and that's

808
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,439
Speaker 4: not the type of team you want to bet your

809
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 4: hard earned money on. But when you're betting numbers like

810
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 4: our buddy Anthony likes to do, sometimes you'll end up

811
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 4: on teams like Everyden Right, Yeah.

812
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna be on Everton.

813
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 3: Chelsea got the late luck box penalty against Leads to

814
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:14,760
Speaker 3: win that match.

815
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 2: Two penalties. Both were a little bit fluky.

816
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 3: Neither were like denying a clear scoring opportunity. They were

817
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 3: both kind of on the edge of the box, and

818
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 3: they're both penalties. They'll got me wrong, But like Chelsea

819
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 3: was not on the verge of scoring when leads you

820
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 3: brought them down inside the box and it was Rudiger

821
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 3: actually drained both penalties, which is kind of funny when

822
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 3: you think about this game. Chelsea is clearly still overvalued,

823
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 3: and they've been overvalued for a little while now. Their

824
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 3: power Index rating has taken a pretty significant slip. They're

825
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 3: now a clear step behind both Liverpool and man City,

826
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 3: both an expected goal difference in overall performance. Their European

827
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 3: performances have not been nearly as dominant. There's just a

828
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 3: lot of red flags with Chelsea here relative to where

829
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 3: they are in the market. I was actually quite happy

830
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 3: to see that goal go in because we still got

831
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 3: a good number here to fade them again, as long

832
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 3: as Charlotte's good to go, which it seems like he

833
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 3: will be.

834
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 2: It's not entirely clear at this point.

835
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 3: As of Sunday night, I'll be taking some plus one

836
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 3: and a half and I'm going to take some team

837
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 3: total over a half. Probably split my bet on those two.

838
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 3: I do think this is probably going to be a

839
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 3: Chelsea win, but I see it as more of a

840
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:14,919
Speaker 3: two to one game. I don't really see Chelsea any

841
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 3: margin here. They just have not been able to control

842
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:21,240
Speaker 3: the midfield nearly as effectively without Angolo Conte. Then Chilwell's

843
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 3: actually been a pretty significant loss. You know, Marcus Alonso

844
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 3: has not been nearly as good as Chilwell was. And

845
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 3: so just some concerns about Chelsea heading into the festive period.

846
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 3: I think they're apt to drop some points here, and

847
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 3: really I think the top two are eventually going to

848
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 3: separate themselves and make this a two horse race. When

849
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 3: I tweeted that, people got mad at me, But I'm

850
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: standing by that.

851
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 4: The cardinal rule of Twitter is never tweet Anthony and

852
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 4: you'll learn that you're still young. And that brings us

853
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,839
Speaker 4: to the last Premier League match of the midweek, and

854
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 4: it's one of the teams that Chelsea will be fighting

855
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 4: with in this title race. Liverpool minus nine hundred minus

856
00:36:55,880 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 4: nine hundred favorites at home against Newcastle twenty two one

857
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,959
Speaker 4: on the money line. The draw is sitting at plus

858
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 4: eight fifty Thursday three pm kickoff. I do wonder if

859
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 4: there is anybody out there who would bet the draw

860
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,720
Speaker 4: on this match. I would love to see a draw ticket,

861
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 4: like who what what sociopath out there is betting the

862
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 4: draw in this match. It's hilarious and the draw to

863
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,879
Speaker 4: me should be like way higher the Liverpool alltline minus

864
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 4: two and a half minus one oh five minus one

865
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 4: oh five for minus two and a half. So yeah,

866
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 4: it's uh, this is a stay away from me. Maybe

867
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 4: a ten dollars like for fun under the couch money

868
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 4: bet on Newcastle just because of Fomo. You don't want

869
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 4: to miss out if they do pull this hilarious upset.

870
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 4: I would love to see what Jurgen Klop you know,

871
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 4: complaints about if that happened. But yeah, that's that's about

872
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 4: the only way I can approach this one is the

873
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 4: shits and giggles bet on Newcastle or nothing, BJ what

874
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 4: about you.

875
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just wanted to say, I don't think I've

876
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 1: ever seen this before in my projections, but I have

877
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: the draw projected at over ten to one. I don't

878
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 1: think I've ever seen that before. I was actually looking,

879
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 1: I was like, oh, maybe we'll take you know, Liverpool

880
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: team total, you know, over two and a half. Maybe

881
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 1: we can get it at you know, and I wasn't

882
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 1: expecting a good price. That's minus one ninety. So this

883
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 1: is just to stay away. I mean, it's uh, I

884
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 1: have Newcastle projected at twenty five to one, so you

885
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,839
Speaker 1: know it's their defense is so bad. And Eddie Howe

886
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 1: has just resigned to the fact that he cannot play

887
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 1: a traditional three four three like he usually plays with them,

888
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 1: because they set up in a four to four one

889
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: one today and they still got torched by Lester. He

890
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 1: just doesn't have the personnel who knows in January what happens.

891
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 1: You know. An interesting bet I think right now with

892
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 1: Newcastle is them to not be relegated if we can

893
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 1: get that, you know, at a decent price, like maybe

894
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: play that given you know, the January transfer window and

895
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: a bunch of guys that are just sitting out there

896
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: that aren't playing at certain teams like you know, Anthony

897
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 1: Marshall or a Cardier or you know guys like that.

898
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:53,919
Speaker 1: But yeah, this one is just a total stay away

899
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 1: from me and I probably won't even watch a second

900
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 1: of it.

901
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 3: In the time that we were discussing this game, Liverpool's

902
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 3: already ticked up. They're now minus thousand on the money line. Yeah,

903
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 3: I mean, how do you it's Newcastle plus two and

904
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 3: a half or pass. I understand the matchups bad, I

905
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 3: understand it's at Enfield. I understand Newcastle is terrible. I

906
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 3: won't make a case if they're any good. They're the

907
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 3: worst team in the league going against a team that

908
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 3: loves to run up the score on bad teams. But

909
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 3: they're still over valued here at two and a half.

910
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll get like a two and three quarters. Then

911
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 3: then I'm gonna have three. I'm gonna have to if

912
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 3: we get three, am play in Newcastle, but we're not

913
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 3: gonna get three. But it's just a really what even

914
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 3: is the handicap? How many is Liverpool choose to win by?

915
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 3: You know, how good are their finishing boots that day?

916
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 3: Does Debrofka have a world class performance in him?

917
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: Newcastle over half goal is plus one twenty five? That

918
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 1: would be anything.

919
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 4: Newcastle twenty two to one on the money line. That's

920
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 4: the same that the Pittsburgh Penguins have to win the

921
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 4: Stanley Cup. So there you go. That'll do for the

922
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 4: Premier League portion of the program. A good note to

923
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 4: end it on, and we will now move to the Bundesliga.

924
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 4: We've had someone reach out to us about how we

925
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 4: touch on the boo this league. They've helped us pronounce

926
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 4: the name of our beloved ruther Firt correctly and they

927
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,840
Speaker 4: won this weekend, So some good karma for the official

928
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 4: Bundesliga team.

929
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 2: Not one of us bet.

930
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 1: Them, Yeah, of course, no one time.

931
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 4: We don't we are losers? Please, yeah, forget that we

932
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 4: are losers.

933
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 2: I turned on the game saw it was one nil.

934
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 3: I was I was happy, but I was also desperately

935
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 3: rooting for Union to score because I just could not

936
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 3: sit there and be like we could have had and

937
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 3: we did them this week.

938
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 1: We got scarred after seven to one.

939
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:32,919
Speaker 3: Not just seven to one, but the I mean there's

940
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 3: been four bad beats for me this year on that team,

941
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 3: tails between our legs and eggs on our faces for

942
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 3: not playing the team of the podcast, and their first

943
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 3: win of the season of the Bundesliga.

944
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 4: On that note, BJ, what is your favorite bet in

945
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 4: Germany this week? Well?

946
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 1: I actually kind of like Ruthor against Dorman, but no,

947
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: I'll go I'll go with the just patent try it

948
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 1: and true lever Cousen fade would hit today. Congratulations Anthony Leverkusen.

949
00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 1: I mean, this team is just it's insane how them

950
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:02,760
Speaker 1: is just overreacting to them. They have a plus sixteen

951
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 1: actual goald differential and only a plus three point five

952
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 1: expected gold of French will And obviously we've been talking

953
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 1: about it over and over again, all of that has

954
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 1: pretty much come offensively. I won't go into, you know,

955
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 1: obviously the stats behind it, but the reason why it's

956
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 1: happening to Leverkusen is because they're just not creating a

957
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 1: lot of shots inside the six yard box. They have

958
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 1: the second fewest in the Boon Disleague, only nine shots

959
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,839
Speaker 1: inside the six yard bucks, compared to league leaders Bayern Munich,

960
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,280
Speaker 1: who have thirty one shots inside the six yard bucks.

961
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 1: And so basically what you're saying is you're going to

962
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 1: rely on guys like Listen, I love my guy Patrick Schick,

963
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 1: but he is overperforming right now, him along with all

964
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: their other attacking players basically not creating anything inside the

965
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 1: six yard box. They had fourteenth and shots per ninety

966
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: that's a really hard scoring rate to sustain, especially against

967
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: Hoffenheim defense that's top six in non penalty expectables allowed,

968
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 1: shots loud per ninety, and big scoring chances allowed. And

969
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 1: this Hoffenheim team, which is currently sitting in fourth place,

970
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 1: is red hot right now. Four straight wins, including over

971
00:41:56,120 --> 00:42:00,759
Speaker 1: Arbi Leipzig, Frankfurt and Freiberg. Offensively, they're fourth and non

972
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 1: penalty expected goals second in big scoring chances. This is

973
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 1: a classic Leverkusen overvalued once against. I love Hoffenheim plus

974
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: half a goal at plus one.

975
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 4: Fifteen, Anthony, I BJ is fading Leverkusen. That means he

976
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 4: beats you to the punch likely. So where are you

977
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 4: going with your favorite bet this week? Yeah?

978
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 3: You know, Leverkusen grabbed a quick two oh lead. There

979
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 3: was a very fluky penalty that got them the two

980
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 3: oh lead, and then it was all eye track Frankfurt.

981
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 3: Big win for the Eagles today. Okay, so Dortmund and

982
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 3: Furth the total set at four goals right now. I

983
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,439
Speaker 3: wonder what that total would have been a few weeks ago,

984
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 3: prior to Firth conceding six goals to Hoffenheim and seven

985
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 3: goals to Leverkusen.

986
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 2: It's clearly inflated.

987
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 3: I understand their defense is really really bad, but they

988
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 3: actually showed some fight in the game against Uno and

989
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:47,839
Speaker 3: they picked up their first win of the season. Of course,

990
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:50,280
Speaker 3: not one of us actually bet them in that spot.

991
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 3: Absolute pain, but congrats to grow at the Firth on

992
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 3: their first win.

993
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 2: Of the season here.

994
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 3: I'm going to back the under because I do show

995
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 3: some value on it. Dortmund continue to overperform in front

996
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 3: of goal in their attacking numbers, and Furt obviously has

997
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 3: defensive regression coming as well. Today they got a little

998
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 3: bit lucky in their win, as was always going to

999
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 3: be the case when they ever they got their first

1000
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 3: win against a top six to seven team in the Bundesliga.

1001
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,399
Speaker 3: But really at four goals here, I have to take

1002
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:22,879
Speaker 3: the under unfortunately, and so hopefully Holland takes it easy

1003
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 3: on us, he doesn't go too ham and really this

1004
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 3: line should be three and a half and is it four?

1005
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 3: So I'm going to take the under four.

1006
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 4: All right, We're getting towards the end of the program,

1007
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,319
Speaker 4: but before we do, we need to talk about a

1008
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,879
Speaker 4: few underdogs we like, and as always I will warn

1009
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 4: you to tread lightly with these picks. These are underdogs

1010
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:42,479
Speaker 4: for a reason, but we will still give them out.

1011
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 4: And hey, like we said in our last episode, we

1012
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 4: have been doing pretty well in these been pretty rare

1013
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 4: that we've been shut out, and we are in the

1014
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 4: green considerably if you've been betting each one. My favorite

1015
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 4: dog this week is west Ham plus two thirty five

1016
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 4: taking on Arsenal, I don't really think there's that much

1017
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 4: that separates these two teams. I know Arsenal's just coming

1018
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 4: off an impressive win over Southampton and they are at home.

1019
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 4: But west Ham is a very very good team. They're

1020
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 4: underlying metrics support that they are a top four, top

1021
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 4: five team in the Premier League and we've seen against

1022
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 4: teams that are near the top of the table. So

1023
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 4: give me the Hammers plus two thirty five. David Moyes,

1024
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 4: I'm going back to you and he's treated me well

1025
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 4: this season, so hopefully that gets this underdog parlay started

1026
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:26,280
Speaker 4: off well, Anthony, what's your favorite underdog?

1027
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:27,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, Hoffenheim.

1028
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 3: I have been riding their luck a little bit in

1029
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks, got lucky with a penalty

1030
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 3: miss against Freiberg. Pretty fortunate to beat Frankfort three to two.

1031
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 3: But that being said, I don't see much difference between

1032
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,360
Speaker 3: them and Leverkusen. They expect a goals difference per ninety

1033
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:41,799
Speaker 3: This year has these two teams is very similar. So

1034
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:43,760
Speaker 3: Leverkusen is at home, but they should not be minus

1035
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 3: one thirty odds on favorites. BJ already mentioned why he

1036
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 3: likes Hoffenheim plus a half. I like Hoffenheim on the

1037
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 3: money line plus three twenty. I think it's gonna be

1038
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 3: a wide open game featuring a lot of chances. Hoffenheim

1039
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 3: and my guy Kramrich have been absolutely cooking lately. He's

1040
00:44:57,719 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 3: taken a huge step forward in the attack. He's got

1041
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 3: four point three expected goals and actually has some regression coming.

1042
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 3: He only has two goals from those four, and Baboo

1043
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 3: has been excellent as well. They have a lot of

1044
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 3: guys who can really interchange and cause problems for this

1045
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 3: Leverkusen defense, which had similar issues against Frankfurt today in

1046
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 3: transition Number one and number two did not defend set

1047
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 3: piece as well at all. Oftenheim has been very good

1048
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 3: on set pieces, and so I think this is a

1049
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 3: very good even though you're not probably getting the best

1050
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 3: in terms of buying low and selling high with Leverkusen

1051
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 3: getting steamrolled last weekend, still going to take the number

1052
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 3: here in a week where we don't have a ton

1053
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 3: of great options.

1054
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:36,799
Speaker 2: Given the limited slate for moneyline underdogs.

1055
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:38,240
Speaker 4: BJ, what's your favorite pooch?

1056
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 1: Well, my last two underdogs have lost in maybe the

1057
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 1: most painful fashion possible, this past week. You know it

1058
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 1: is uden Essay who gave up a pinball goal at

1059
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 1: the end to his Latton to tie one one, which

1060
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:51,800
Speaker 1: was really fun to watch on a college football Saturday

1061
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 1: on my iPad. But I'm gonna go Brentford the Bees

1062
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: at plus three thirty. This is a classics. But I

1063
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 1: already talked about how it menched. United has been essentially

1064
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 1: overvalued and everyone but under Ragnik, their performances have not

1065
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 1: improved whatsoever. You take away the Ronaldo penalty this past

1066
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,680
Speaker 1: week against Norwich against Crystal Palace Norwich, the expected goals

1067
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: battle was pretty much even even if we just purely

1068
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 1: look at expecting gold differential on the season for these

1069
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:18,359
Speaker 1: two teams Brentford plus one point four, United minus two

1070
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 1: point nine. Especially with all the COVID issues as are

1071
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 1: my unit is potentially dealing with, along with all of

1072
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 1: the injuries they are on top of all that, this

1073
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 1: is a great spot for the Bees at home to

1074
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:29,919
Speaker 1: get all three points, So give me them a plus

1075
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 1: three thirty.

1076
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 3: No Freudian slipped this time from BJ where he correctly

1077
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 3: predicted that there would be a stoppage time goal for Milan.

1078
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 1: I did, I did predict that this time Brentford's going

1079
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 1: to win three nothing.

1080
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 4: When you've.

1081
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 2: No doubt about it, no doubt.

1082
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the week. This is the week that

1083
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 4: we hit off three and if we do sixty to

1084
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 4: one is the payout. I will be sure to bet it,

1085
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 4: because yeah, there's no way, there's no way.

1086
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: I feel good about this one, guys.

1087
00:46:57,560 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 4: I really feel good about it.

1088
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 2: About I felt good at last week's It doesn't matter,

1089
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. It was the first leg was dead.

1090
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:05,760
Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, first leg was dead. That was mine.

1091
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:08,839
Speaker 4: Let's wrap this show up with our favorite Premier League

1092
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 4: bet for the midweek. Here, I'm gonna do something a

1093
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:14,879
Speaker 4: little different, uh, back a draw Wolves and Brighton. We

1094
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 4: talk a lot about how neither one of these two

1095
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 4: teams are all that efficient offensively if you want to

1096
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 4: be kind, and they are very efficient defensively, which is

1097
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 4: why you see the over under set at two, and

1098
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 4: backing draws in games with low over unders is usually

1099
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 4: a recipe for success. The bookmakers are telling you they're

1100
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 4: expecting it to be a low event game, and that's

1101
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 4: what you are looking for for a draw. So so

1102
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:40,359
Speaker 4: give me Brighton and Wolves to split the Spoils on

1103
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 4: Wednesday afternoon at the Amex. The draws plus two twenty five.

1104
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,720
Speaker 4: So that's where I'm going with my favorite bet BJ.

1105
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: What about you, Well, let's stay in the same match

1106
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 1: and a different bet, but kind of on the similar wavelength.

1107
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 1: Both teams to score no at minus one thirty five.

1108
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,400
Speaker 1: The Wolves defense has absolutely disappeared from the beginning of

1109
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:00,120
Speaker 1: the season. Obviously, they're gonna be without ral Jumanez, who

1110
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:01,760
Speaker 1: got a red card and maybe one of the dumbest

1111
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:03,800
Speaker 1: things I've ever seen on a soccer field last weekend

1112
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 1: against Manchester City. Wolves has not created a big scoring

1113
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:10,839
Speaker 1: chance in the last six matches and they're now dead

1114
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,319
Speaker 1: last in the Premier League in shotsp ninety at ten

1115
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:16,760
Speaker 1: point three per match. So going up against a Brighton

1116
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 1: defense that's very well organized, only allowing one point one

1117
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 1: four non penalty expected goals per match, I have a

1118
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:24,280
Speaker 1: hard time seeing how Wolves is going to create anything

1119
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 1: of substance against Brighton. On the flip side, Brighton's offense

1120
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:29,760
Speaker 1: hasn't been that great overall this season. They have created

1121
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,400
Speaker 1: four point six expected goals in their last three matches,

1122
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 1: but they're going to be without Trossard and Leilana for

1123
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 1: this one, two of their best attacking midfielders, and Wolve's

1124
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 1: defense is still very well organized, still very solid at

1125
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 1: the back. They're only allowing one point one to nine

1126
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:44,800
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals on the season. These two teams

1127
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,880
Speaker 1: are also really good at pressing inside their own final

1128
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:50,280
Speaker 1: third and not allowing people to essentially get inside the box.

1129
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 1: Brighton also plays at a very very slow, pragmatic build

1130
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,359
Speaker 1: up style place. So I agree with you, Michael. Let's

1131
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 1: hope we get a zero zero draw. So both teams

1132
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 1: to score no On, wolveson.

1133
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 3: Right, Anthony Wrapped to show up, please, Yeah, I'm going

1134
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 3: to go. Southampton and Crystal Palace both teams to score.

1135
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 2: Yes.

1136
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 3: At minus one fifteen, Crystal Palace has the third best

1137
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:11,920
Speaker 3: defensive metrics in the league. I don't think any of us,

1138
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 3: or anyone in the pundit world would have expected that

1139
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:17,359
Speaker 3: to be the case sixteen matches into the season. Now

1140
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:19,719
Speaker 3: we're almost at here, and I really don't expect it

1141
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:21,319
Speaker 3: to be the case going forward. I do think their

1142
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:25,240
Speaker 3: defense is a little bit overvalued because of their impressive numbers.

1143
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 3: The totals a little bit lower than it should be,

1144
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 3: and they're going up against the Southampton team that has

1145
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,439
Speaker 3: a ton of attacking regression coming. They've been very poor

1146
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 3: in front of goal at finishing off their chances.

1147
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 2: You expect that to level off.

1148
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 3: I feel like I've been saying that for weeks and

1149
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 3: they have been scoring a little bit more of late.

1150
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:43,760
Speaker 3: We're denied multiple times by Aaron Ramsdell on what otherwise

1151
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:45,600
Speaker 3: I thought they deserved a goal out of that performance

1152
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 3: against Arsenal. And in goal for Southampton, no Alex McCarthy

1153
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 3: looks like no Fraser Foster, which means it's round two

1154
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 3: of Willie cabiiro. He looked absolutely dreadful in goal, was

1155
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 3: not good at claiming crosses, was not good at shots stopping.

1156
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 3: I think Palace, who has had excellent metrics home this year,

1157
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 3: we'll be able to get on the board, but they

1158
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:04,360
Speaker 3: will concede one as well. So at minus one fifteen,

1159
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:06,840
Speaker 3: I like both teams to score Southampton and Poles.

1160
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 4: All right, And that just about wraps up another episode

1161
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 4: of Wonder Goal. And we do want to say that

1162
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:16,279
Speaker 4: we have picked the winners of the contests that we

1163
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 4: had from a rate Review and Subscribe contest from when

1164
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:21,640
Speaker 4: we first launched the show. If you did with you

1165
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 4: will be hearing from someone from the Action Network in

1166
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 4: the coming days. So congratulations to the winners and on

1167
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 4: that note, we will leave you with our best wishes

1168
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:32,440
Speaker 4: for the midweek matches in the Premier League and the

1169
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 4: Bundesliga and we will see you on Thursday mornings.