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Speaker 1: Iran taking that British tanker. Those guys are pelling down
Speaker 1: the helicopter with their black masks on and everything like that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a military operation. Pretty dramatic seizure. What are they
Speaker 1: playing at? What are they hoping to get out of?
Speaker 1: That's a high stakes game that Iran is playing. I'm
Speaker 1: happy to see that they're leading with it on at
Speaker 1: least the Today Show for instance. Yeah. Yeah, And and
Speaker 1: where do we the United States go from here? And
Speaker 1: how does that relate to how some of our golf
Speaker 1: allies would like to proceed? What are their goals in
Speaker 1: all this? It's it's high stakes stuff and there are
Speaker 1: a lot of murky motivations. And so we're going to
Speaker 1: talk to Ian Bremer, President, founder of Eurisia Group in
Speaker 1: just a minute or two. They're hustling him up on
Speaker 1: the phone. Well, I don't think it's being made clear
Speaker 1: enough to people that this the Iran arresting seventeen c
Speaker 1: I a spies um from the story I just read
Speaker 1: that started like over a year ago, this arresting and
Speaker 1: figuring it out. Why why this information was released today?
Speaker 1: I don't I don't have any idea. All tensions are
Speaker 1: high and getting higher. And here he is Ian Bremmer,
Speaker 1: President and founder of Eurasia Group. The Urasia Group is
Speaker 1: a leading global political risk research and consulting from Ian.
Speaker 1: How are you, sir, under well? And I can answer
Speaker 1: that question for you. Okay, Why why the information came
Speaker 1: out today? Well, because over a year ago is when
Speaker 1: the US pulled out of the Iranian NUCLEU deal. But
Speaker 1: the Iranians were hoping that they could wait out Trump
Speaker 1: for a second term and someone else would win, in
Speaker 1: which case the deal would come back in. But at
Speaker 1: that point the Americans hadn't put new sanctions on. Now
Speaker 1: they have. As a consequence, ire On is producing almost
Speaker 1: no oil for export. UM. Their medals sector has been
Speaker 1: pretty much destroyed by the U S and other The
Speaker 1: economy is now under U S sanction UM. So that's
Speaker 1: why they're escalating. That's why they're hitting the tankers UM.
Speaker 1: That's why they you know, knocked down the drone UM.
Speaker 1: And that's why they decided to announce the seventeen Iranian
Speaker 1: citizens UH, many of whom are being given the death
Speaker 1: penalty for being c I A spies. Who Who is
Speaker 1: that a message for? Though? Announcing that hey, we got
Speaker 1: your spies and we're gonna off them, it's a message
Speaker 1: for number one UM, the Europeans and others that are
Speaker 1: supporting Iran in UH not wanting Trump to pull out
Speaker 1: of the deal, but not actually doing business with Iran
Speaker 1: because of the toughness of U S sanctions and the
Speaker 1: US economy as a hell of a lot more powerful.
Speaker 1: So they're trying to say, guys, we're gonna keep escalating
Speaker 1: unless you actually give our economy upbreak because we're under
Speaker 1: such massive pressure. The Europeans are providing all sorts of
Speaker 1: support rhetorically but doing almost nothing in reality for Iran.
Speaker 1: It's also a message for the Iranian people that if
Speaker 1: you want to get to talk between Trump and the
Speaker 1: Iranian government, the Iranians have to show some sort of
Speaker 1: tip or tap. They have to build their nationalist bona
Speaker 1: few days. They can't just be seen as caving under
Speaker 1: American pressure and then showing up to talks having gotten nothing.
Speaker 1: So in part this is also um, you know, supproving
Speaker 1: themselves domestically, so clearly that's their strategy. And for instance
Speaker 1: snapping up British oil tankers. Well, in the case of
Speaker 1: the British oil tanker, it's to show that if you
Speaker 1: want to have transit that is safe through the Persian Gulf,
Speaker 1: then the Iranians need to have transit through the Persian Gulf,
Speaker 1: and they're not able to export the oil right now.
Speaker 1: So we considered escalation. How dare you take this tanker?
Speaker 1: They consider it a normal thing. I mean, anyone advising
Speaker 1: the Iranian president would say, yeah, this makes sense from
Speaker 1: their perspective. Also, keep in mind that the United Kingdom
Speaker 1: has actually seized an Iranian tanker that they claimed was
Speaker 1: going to deliver illicit goods to Syria oil um, and
Speaker 1: they still have that tanker by Irani and tanker it's
Speaker 1: right now in the Port of Gibraltar, which is UK control.
Speaker 1: Would it be fair to say this is the most
Speaker 1: financial pressure putting on Iran in decades? Sure. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, there's no question that they were under a
Speaker 1: fair amount of pressure of course before the Iranian Deal
Speaker 1: was signed, But this is much worse than that status
Speaker 1: quo anti um. Their economy is in severe recession right now.
Speaker 1: UM inflation is massive UM and the Iranian people are
Speaker 1: feeling and they were the ones that were promised by
Speaker 1: the Iranian president if you support this deal, which was
Speaker 1: as controversial in Iran as it was in the United States,
Speaker 1: that there are economies going to improve. They supported the deal.
Speaker 1: They was up to the terms of the deal as
Speaker 1: limited as they were UM, and now their economy is
Speaker 1: doing even worse. So, I mean, if you're in Iranian
Speaker 1: government right now, there's a horrible place to be. Ian Bremer,
Speaker 1: President founder of Eurasia Group. On the line. Ian, now
Speaker 1: that everybody has re established their their hard guy bona fides,
Speaker 1: do you say this moving towards the bargaining table anytime soon?
Speaker 1: I think the Iranian government wants to do that. I've
Speaker 1: spoken with the Iranian four minutes Sir it's very clear
Speaker 1: to me that that is his orientation. The statements we've
Speaker 1: seen from the Iranian president say that as well. But
Speaker 1: Iran is not run by its president. It is a theocracy,
Speaker 1: and ultimately the decision on whether or not they'll be
Speaker 1: negotiations will have to be made by the Supreme Leader
Speaker 1: Ali Hama, and he is It's not his deal. He
Speaker 1: was not the one that originally put all of his
Speaker 1: political um, you know, capital into this deal. That was
Speaker 1: the president, and so far he has shown no inclination
Speaker 1: um to talk with the Americans whatsoever. In fact, he's
Speaker 1: been taking and shots at President Trump directly through social media.
Speaker 1: So it's not like North Korea, where, if you know,
Speaker 1: Trump can say horrible things about Kim Jong lun, change
Speaker 1: his mind and then Kim personally makes the decision. In
Speaker 1: the case of Iran, it's actually much more complicated than that,
Speaker 1: and just real briefly, I heard you mentioned on another show,
Speaker 1: a lesser show, uh, the official name of the Revolutionary Guard,
Speaker 1: which I thought was an interesting point. Would you mind
Speaker 1: repeating that it's the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Court's not the
Speaker 1: Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Course, So when you hear about I
Speaker 1: r TC patrol boats threatening the UK, or when you
Speaker 1: hear about knocking down an American drone. UM, that's not
Speaker 1: something the Iranian president has ordered, and in fact it's
Speaker 1: possibly not something the Iranian president even knows about. Certainly
Speaker 1: he'd have to be briefed. Usually are those sorts of
Speaker 1: things he finds out he's going to find out on CNN.
Speaker 1: It's just like widely, a lot of a lot of
Speaker 1: Trump administration officials found out about Trump Smooths on cable television.
Speaker 1: So it's important to you were that's so interesting that
Speaker 1: that is something right there? So what about Iran's putting
Speaker 1: pressure on the world end of it with their talk about,
Speaker 1: you know, trying to get a nuclear weapon that sort
Speaker 1: of stuff. How's that affecting us? And how do we
Speaker 1: keep Israel from reacting? Two things to mention here. First
Speaker 1: of all, despite all of the storm underrang from the Iranians,
Speaker 1: UM oil prices are still pretty low. So Iran just
Speaker 1: doesn't have the leverage they used to threatening the tankers.
Speaker 1: Isn't yet pushing oil through a hundred it would have
Speaker 1: ten years ago, And the reason for that is because
Speaker 1: the Americans are are now the largest oil producer in
Speaker 1: the world. Um, and so Iran just doesn't have influence. Also,
Speaker 1: the Saudis are cooperating with the Americans very closely on
Speaker 1: oil production. That matters too. Iran has said historically they
Speaker 1: want nuclear weapons. Trump says he's upset about the Iranian
Speaker 1: deal because it allowed them to get nukes in a
Speaker 1: relatively short period of time, and the fifth teen years
Speaker 1: they'd be out of the terms of the deal, and
Speaker 1: you know at that point they could start again. Um.
Speaker 1: But you know, we should keep in mind that Pakistan
Speaker 1: has nukes. We're not very happy about that. We can't
Speaker 1: do anything about it. North Korea has nukes. We're really
Speaker 1: unhappy about that. We can't do anything about it. Israel
Speaker 1: has nukes, probably a hundred, even though they've never December
Speaker 1: announced that publicly. So I mean, you know, the fact is,
Speaker 1: if an't want to have a couple of nuclear weapons,
Speaker 1: I mean, it sounds horrible from the American perspective, but
Speaker 1: it's not clear it's game changer in the region. The
Speaker 1: way that, for example, around supporting terrorist organizations or around
Speaker 1: supporting proxy groups that are fighting against American allies, it's
Speaker 1: actually more impactful on a day to day basis, and
Speaker 1: that should remind all of us just how limited the
Speaker 1: Iranian nuclear deal actually was. It did not create friendship
Speaker 1: between the US and Iran. It didn't take all the
Speaker 1: sanctions off, nor did it stop the Iranians from engaging
Speaker 1: in all that other behavior. And as much as Secretary
Speaker 1: of State Pompeo says, we want them, the fundamentally change,
Speaker 1: Trump has only talked about the nukes. He just doesn't
Speaker 1: like the fact that the Iranian nucleveial was done by
Speaker 1: Obama as opposed to having Trump's name on it. That's interesting.
Speaker 1: It makes it easier to get to a place of
Speaker 1: agreement between two countries, but makes it much harder to
Speaker 1: actually improve the baseline relationships. Ian Bremer, President founder of
Speaker 1: Eurasia Group, Fabulous e and Enlightning is always thanks a million,
Speaker 1: Let's do it again. Yeah, I don't know. I just
Speaker 1: it seems like there was a contradiction in his own
Speaker 1: little speech there. So, uh, they get a nuclear weapon,
Speaker 1: what if it's in the in in control of that
Speaker 1: Islamic group, not the Iranian group, the Islamic group. Well,
Speaker 1: and who's actually in charge day to day in Iran
Speaker 1: is unclear? So right, Yeah, And I didn't want to
Speaker 1: talk all day with him, I know how busy he is.
Speaker 1: But then you got your Gulf states, who are phreenemies
Speaker 1: of the United States in a lot of ways. Some
Speaker 1: are summer you can rely on, Some are a little
Speaker 1: wacky frankly, some you know, which princes in charge changes
Speaker 1: and that changes a comple election of their foreign policy
Speaker 1: a great deal, of course, every time we have an election,
Speaker 1: that changes our foreign policy. But anyway, so if Iran
Speaker 1: does get a nuke, what what does the U a E. Say?
Speaker 1: What does Katar say? How would they react? And then see,
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know. I'm glad I'm not
Speaker 1: in charge of this very confusing, a pretty interesting layout
Speaker 1: of the situation though for me and Bremer, I'm actually
Speaker 1: pretty optimistic we get to the bargaining table with Iran
Speaker 1: before too long and something semi productive comes out of it.
Speaker 1: Um But you know, I would put the certainty rate
Speaker 1: of that at six maybe you know what? You know
Speaker 1: what Trump did and Merkel hated this, But Trump said,
Speaker 1: you can either do business with Iran or do business
Speaker 1: with US, and they chose US as Ian. Bremer just said,
Speaker 1: the European countries make a lot of noise about Iran
Speaker 1: and then want to do but they're not actually doing
Speaker 1: business with them, and we said you can't, you can't
Speaker 1: do business with them and us, right, and they're uh,
Speaker 1: they caved on that. Yeah, yeah, for now, we'll see
Speaker 1: and listen. I find in the Iranian regime utterly repulsive
Speaker 1: in every way. On the other hand, I do get
Speaker 1: the old. Oh so we have to have free flow
Speaker 1: of oil through the Persian Gulf. That's international laws that
Speaker 1: you people aren't letting us export any of our oil
Speaker 1: through the Persian Golf. It's got our name on it.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I could see there being some resent Well,
Speaker 1: what are you gonna do? Are strong, whether you have
Speaker 1: your own bathroom or you share one with your family,
Speaker 1: A little extra help keeping the bathroom seeing counter and
Speaker 1: mere clean goes a long way, and Viva paper Twels
Speaker 1: are for the long haul. There are two times more
Speaker 1: durable when we compared to the leading value brand, and
Speaker 1: they clean like cloth, helping you keep the surfaces near
Speaker 1: bathroom dry and fingerprint and toothpaste free. For an exceptional
Speaker 1: bathroom clean, there's Viva Paper Towels. Visit Viva twels dot
Speaker 1: com to learn more.