WEBVTT - Iran:  Feeling the Pressure.  Ian Bremmer talks to Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>Iran taking that British tanker. Those guys are pelling down

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<v Speaker 1>the helicopter with their black masks on and everything like that. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a military operation. Pretty dramatic seizure. What are they

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<v Speaker 1>playing at? What are they hoping to get out of?

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<v Speaker 1>That's a high stakes game that Iran is playing. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>happy to see that they're leading with it on at

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<v Speaker 1>least the Today Show for instance. Yeah. Yeah, And and

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<v Speaker 1>where do we the United States go from here? And

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<v Speaker 1>how does that relate to how some of our golf

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<v Speaker 1>allies would like to proceed? What are their goals in

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<v Speaker 1>all this? It's it's high stakes stuff and there are

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of murky motivations. And so we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>talk to Ian Bremer, President, founder of Eurisia Group in

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<v Speaker 1>just a minute or two. They're hustling him up on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone. Well, I don't think it's being made clear

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<v Speaker 1>enough to people that this the Iran arresting seventeen c

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<v Speaker 1>I a spies um from the story I just read

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<v Speaker 1>that started like over a year ago, this arresting and

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<v Speaker 1>figuring it out. Why why this information was released today?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't I don't have any idea. All tensions are

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<v Speaker 1>high and getting higher. And here he is Ian Bremmer,

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<v Speaker 1>President and founder of Eurasia Group. The Urasia Group is

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<v Speaker 1>a leading global political risk research and consulting from Ian.

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<v Speaker 1>How are you, sir, under well? And I can answer

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<v Speaker 1>that question for you. Okay, Why why the information came

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<v Speaker 1>out today? Well, because over a year ago is when

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<v Speaker 1>the US pulled out of the Iranian NUCLEU deal. But

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<v Speaker 1>the Iranians were hoping that they could wait out Trump

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<v Speaker 1>for a second term and someone else would win, in

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<v Speaker 1>which case the deal would come back in. But at

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<v Speaker 1>that point the Americans hadn't put new sanctions on. Now

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<v Speaker 1>they have. As a consequence, ire On is producing almost

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<v Speaker 1>no oil for export. UM. Their medals sector has been

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<v Speaker 1>pretty much destroyed by the U S and other The

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<v Speaker 1>economy is now under U S sanction UM. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>why they're escalating. That's why they're hitting the tankers UM.

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<v Speaker 1>That's why they you know, knocked down the drone UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's why they decided to announce the seventeen Iranian

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<v Speaker 1>citizens UH, many of whom are being given the death

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<v Speaker 1>penalty for being c I A spies. Who Who is

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<v Speaker 1>that a message for? Though? Announcing that hey, we got

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<v Speaker 1>your spies and we're gonna off them, it's a message

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<v Speaker 1>for number one UM, the Europeans and others that are

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<v Speaker 1>supporting Iran in UH not wanting Trump to pull out

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<v Speaker 1>of the deal, but not actually doing business with Iran

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<v Speaker 1>because of the toughness of U S sanctions and the

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<v Speaker 1>US economy as a hell of a lot more powerful.

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<v Speaker 1>So they're trying to say, guys, we're gonna keep escalating

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<v Speaker 1>unless you actually give our economy upbreak because we're under

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<v Speaker 1>such massive pressure. The Europeans are providing all sorts of

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<v Speaker 1>support rhetorically but doing almost nothing in reality for Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also a message for the Iranian people that if

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<v Speaker 1>you want to get to talk between Trump and the

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian government, the Iranians have to show some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>tip or tap. They have to build their nationalist bona

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<v Speaker 1>few days. They can't just be seen as caving under

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<v Speaker 1>American pressure and then showing up to talks having gotten nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>So in part this is also um, you know, supproving

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<v Speaker 1>themselves domestically, so clearly that's their strategy. And for instance

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<v Speaker 1>snapping up British oil tankers. Well, in the case of

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<v Speaker 1>the British oil tanker, it's to show that if you

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<v Speaker 1>want to have transit that is safe through the Persian Gulf,

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<v Speaker 1>then the Iranians need to have transit through the Persian Gulf,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're not able to export the oil right now.

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<v Speaker 1>So we considered escalation. How dare you take this tanker?

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<v Speaker 1>They consider it a normal thing. I mean, anyone advising

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<v Speaker 1>the Iranian president would say, yeah, this makes sense from

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<v Speaker 1>their perspective. Also, keep in mind that the United Kingdom

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<v Speaker 1>has actually seized an Iranian tanker that they claimed was

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<v Speaker 1>going to deliver illicit goods to Syria oil um, and

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<v Speaker 1>they still have that tanker by Irani and tanker it's

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<v Speaker 1>right now in the Port of Gibraltar, which is UK control.

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<v Speaker 1>Would it be fair to say this is the most

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<v Speaker 1>financial pressure putting on Iran in decades? Sure. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there's no question that they were under a

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<v Speaker 1>fair amount of pressure of course before the Iranian Deal

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<v Speaker 1>was signed, But this is much worse than that status

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<v Speaker 1>quo anti um. Their economy is in severe recession right now.

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<v Speaker 1>UM inflation is massive UM and the Iranian people are

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<v Speaker 1>feeling and they were the ones that were promised by

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<v Speaker 1>the Iranian president if you support this deal, which was

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<v Speaker 1>as controversial in Iran as it was in the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>that there are economies going to improve. They supported the deal.

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<v Speaker 1>They was up to the terms of the deal as

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<v Speaker 1>limited as they were UM, and now their economy is

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<v Speaker 1>doing even worse. So, I mean, if you're in Iranian

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<v Speaker 1>government right now, there's a horrible place to be. Ian Bremer,

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<v Speaker 1>President founder of Eurasia Group. On the line. Ian, now

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<v Speaker 1>that everybody has re established their their hard guy bona fides,

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<v Speaker 1>do you say this moving towards the bargaining table anytime soon?

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<v Speaker 1>I think the Iranian government wants to do that. I've

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<v Speaker 1>spoken with the Iranian four minutes Sir it's very clear

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<v Speaker 1>to me that that is his orientation. The statements we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen from the Iranian president say that as well. But

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<v Speaker 1>Iran is not run by its president. It is a theocracy,

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<v Speaker 1>and ultimately the decision on whether or not they'll be

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<v Speaker 1>negotiations will have to be made by the Supreme Leader

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<v Speaker 1>Ali Hama, and he is It's not his deal. He

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<v Speaker 1>was not the one that originally put all of his

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<v Speaker 1>political um, you know, capital into this deal. That was

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<v Speaker 1>the president, and so far he has shown no inclination

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<v Speaker 1>um to talk with the Americans whatsoever. In fact, he's

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<v Speaker 1>been taking and shots at President Trump directly through social media.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's not like North Korea, where, if you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump can say horrible things about Kim Jong lun, change

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<v Speaker 1>his mind and then Kim personally makes the decision. In

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<v Speaker 1>the case of Iran, it's actually much more complicated than that,

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<v Speaker 1>and just real briefly, I heard you mentioned on another show,

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<v Speaker 1>a lesser show, uh, the official name of the Revolutionary Guard,

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<v Speaker 1>which I thought was an interesting point. Would you mind

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<v Speaker 1>repeating that it's the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Court's not the

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Course, So when you hear about I

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<v Speaker 1>r TC patrol boats threatening the UK, or when you

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<v Speaker 1>hear about knocking down an American drone. UM, that's not

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<v Speaker 1>something the Iranian president has ordered, and in fact it's

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<v Speaker 1>possibly not something the Iranian president even knows about. Certainly

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<v Speaker 1>he'd have to be briefed. Usually are those sorts of

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<v Speaker 1>things he finds out he's going to find out on CNN.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just like widely, a lot of a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>Trump administration officials found out about Trump Smooths on cable television.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's important to you were that's so interesting that

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<v Speaker 1>that is something right there? So what about Iran's putting

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<v Speaker 1>pressure on the world end of it with their talk about,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, trying to get a nuclear weapon that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of stuff. How's that affecting us? And how do we

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<v Speaker 1>keep Israel from reacting? Two things to mention here. First

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<v Speaker 1>of all, despite all of the storm underrang from the Iranians,

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<v Speaker 1>UM oil prices are still pretty low. So Iran just

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't have the leverage they used to threatening the tankers.

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<v Speaker 1>Isn't yet pushing oil through a hundred it would have

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<v Speaker 1>ten years ago, And the reason for that is because

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<v Speaker 1>the Americans are are now the largest oil producer in

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<v Speaker 1>the world. Um, and so Iran just doesn't have influence. Also,

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<v Speaker 1>the Saudis are cooperating with the Americans very closely on

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<v Speaker 1>oil production. That matters too. Iran has said historically they

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<v Speaker 1>want nuclear weapons. Trump says he's upset about the Iranian

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<v Speaker 1>deal because it allowed them to get nukes in a

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<v Speaker 1>relatively short period of time, and the fifth teen years

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<v Speaker 1>they'd be out of the terms of the deal, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know at that point they could start again. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, we should keep in mind that Pakistan

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<v Speaker 1>has nukes. We're not very happy about that. We can't

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<v Speaker 1>do anything about it. North Korea has nukes. We're really

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<v Speaker 1>unhappy about that. We can't do anything about it. Israel

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<v Speaker 1>has nukes, probably a hundred, even though they've never December

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<v Speaker 1>announced that publicly. So I mean, you know, the fact is,

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<v Speaker 1>if an't want to have a couple of nuclear weapons,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it sounds horrible from the American perspective, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's not clear it's game changer in the region. The

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<v Speaker 1>way that, for example, around supporting terrorist organizations or around

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<v Speaker 1>supporting proxy groups that are fighting against American allies, it's

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<v Speaker 1>actually more impactful on a day to day basis, and

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<v Speaker 1>that should remind all of us just how limited the

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian nuclear deal actually was. It did not create friendship

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<v Speaker 1>between the US and Iran. It didn't take all the

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<v Speaker 1>sanctions off, nor did it stop the Iranians from engaging

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<v Speaker 1>in all that other behavior. And as much as Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>of State Pompeo says, we want them, the fundamentally change,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has only talked about the nukes. He just doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>like the fact that the Iranian nucleveial was done by

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<v Speaker 1>Obama as opposed to having Trump's name on it. That's interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>It makes it easier to get to a place of

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<v Speaker 1>agreement between two countries, but makes it much harder to

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<v Speaker 1>actually improve the baseline relationships. Ian Bremer, President founder of

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<v Speaker 1>Eurasia Group, Fabulous e and Enlightning is always thanks a million,

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<v Speaker 1>Let's do it again. Yeah, I don't know. I just

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<v Speaker 1>it seems like there was a contradiction in his own

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<v Speaker 1>little speech there. So, uh, they get a nuclear weapon,

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<v Speaker 1>what if it's in the in in control of that

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<v Speaker 1>Islamic group, not the Iranian group, the Islamic group. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and who's actually in charge day to day in Iran

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<v Speaker 1>is unclear? So right, Yeah, And I didn't want to

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<v Speaker 1>talk all day with him, I know how busy he is.

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<v Speaker 1>But then you got your Gulf states, who are phreenemies

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<v Speaker 1>of the United States in a lot of ways. Some

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<v Speaker 1>are summer you can rely on, Some are a little

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<v Speaker 1>wacky frankly, some you know, which princes in charge changes

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<v Speaker 1>and that changes a comple election of their foreign policy

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<v Speaker 1>a great deal, of course, every time we have an election,

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<v Speaker 1>that changes our foreign policy. But anyway, so if Iran

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<v Speaker 1>does get a nuke, what what does the U a E. Say?

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<v Speaker 1>What does Katar say? How would they react? And then see,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know, I don't know. I'm glad I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>in charge of this very confusing, a pretty interesting layout

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<v Speaker 1>of the situation though for me and Bremer, I'm actually

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<v Speaker 1>pretty optimistic we get to the bargaining table with Iran

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<v Speaker 1>before too long and something semi productive comes out of it.

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<v Speaker 1>Um But you know, I would put the certainty rate

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<v Speaker 1>of that at six maybe you know what? You know

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<v Speaker 1>what Trump did and Merkel hated this, But Trump said,

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<v Speaker 1>you can either do business with Iran or do business

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<v Speaker 1>with US, and they chose US as Ian. Bremer just said,

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<v Speaker 1>the European countries make a lot of noise about Iran

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<v Speaker 1>and then want to do but they're not actually doing

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<v Speaker 1>business with them, and we said you can't, you can't

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<v Speaker 1>do business with them and us, right, and they're uh,

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<v Speaker 1>they caved on that. Yeah, yeah, for now, we'll see

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<v Speaker 1>and listen. I find in the Iranian regime utterly repulsive

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<v Speaker 1>in every way. On the other hand, I do get

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<v Speaker 1>the old. Oh so we have to have free flow

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<v Speaker 1>of oil through the Persian Gulf. That's international laws that

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<v Speaker 1>you people aren't letting us export any of our oil

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<v Speaker 1>through the Persian Golf. It's got our name on it.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, I could see there being some resent Well,

0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:31.640
<v Speaker 1>what are you gonna do? Are strong, whether you have

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