WEBVTT - Tudor Investment's Jones Talks Market Rally

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:11.000
<v Speaker 2>We welcome our TV and radio audiences for a conversation

0:00:11.119 --> 0:00:13.440
<v Speaker 2>with one of the most respected traders on Wall Street.

0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:16.680
<v Speaker 2>Paul Tutor Jones is known for his foresight. He shot

0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:19.960
<v Speaker 2>to fame after anticipating the Black Monday crash in nineteen

0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:20.560
<v Speaker 2>eighty seven.

0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:23.000
<v Speaker 3>He then went on to make a series of.

0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.920
<v Speaker 2>Successful global macro trades, like shorting tech stocks ahead of

0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:30.840
<v Speaker 2>the dot com bubble, but also big in philanthropy. He

0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:34.680
<v Speaker 2>founded the Robin Hood Foundation, a charitable organization committed to

0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:37.839
<v Speaker 2>fighting poverty in New York City. Every year, the Foundation

0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:40.880
<v Speaker 2>enlists the boldest names and finance in a stock picking

0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.320
<v Speaker 2>contest known as Pick a Ticker and Paul Tutor Jones,

0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:47.080
<v Speaker 2>I'm happy to say joins us now here at the desk.

0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:48.960
<v Speaker 3>Paul, thanks so much for your time.

0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:51.840
<v Speaker 2>I want to first ask you about robin Hood before

0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:54.000
<v Speaker 2>we get to the markets, because I know you have

0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:56.920
<v Speaker 2>a big conference with JP Morgan tomorrow, right we do.

0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:59.080
<v Speaker 4>We have a conference tomorrow.

0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:02.080
<v Speaker 1>There's still a few tickets that are available.

0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:04.600
<v Speaker 4>We have some great, great speakers.

0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:10.440
<v Speaker 1>I'll be interviewing Dario Amity, who's the CEO of Anthropics.

0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:13.400
<v Speaker 1>So Actually he's the person that should be answering your

0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:16.560
<v Speaker 1>AI questions, not not me. I can't what there's so

0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:20.560
<v Speaker 1>many I want to ask him on a We've also got.

0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:21.800
<v Speaker 4>Ken Griffin and Jamie Dimmond.

0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:24.720
<v Speaker 1>It's gonna be it's gonna be your fantastic and very

0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:26.240
<v Speaker 1>informative and educational debt.

0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:30.919
<v Speaker 2>Will all of those guys participate in pick a ticker

0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:33.560
<v Speaker 2>because this is a contest you do with Bloomberg.

0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:37.360
<v Speaker 1>Right right, So pick a ticker is you pick one long,

0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:41.240
<v Speaker 1>one short. It's a six month it's a six month contest.

0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:45.720
<v Speaker 1>Think of fantasy football meets the markets. Because this year

0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:49.080
<v Speaker 1>we're going to allow you to change your picks.

0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:51.640
<v Speaker 4>Uh, I think two or three.

0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:56.560
<v Speaker 1>Times during the six month process. So you have you

0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.600
<v Speaker 1>put in ten thousand bucks, it's going to go to charity.

0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:01.680
<v Speaker 1>It's gonna seventy five percent is going to go to

0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:04.440
<v Speaker 1>robin Hood to help the least among us in New

0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:09.440
<v Speaker 1>York City, which sadly has twice the national poverty rate.

0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:11.920
<v Speaker 1>And I think we've all got a vested interest in

0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:15.519
<v Speaker 1>making sure New York not just survives but thrives. Because

0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:19.160
<v Speaker 1>obviously Wall Street, which is the I guess the reason

0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:21.799
<v Speaker 1>for so much financial wealth that all your viewers have

0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:25.640
<v Speaker 1>is something that we need to be able to in

0:02:25.720 --> 0:02:29.240
<v Speaker 1>New York City have again a thriving city, because the

0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:32.280
<v Speaker 1>most important city in this country has got to always succeed.

0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:32.639
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:35.560
<v Speaker 2>I mean you have raised I think three billion dollars

0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:39.480
<v Speaker 2>over the time since you founded robin Hood for fighting

0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:41.839
<v Speaker 2>poverty in New York. I want to ask about Wall

0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:47.000
<v Speaker 2>Street and specifically about this equity market. I do watch

0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:51.080
<v Speaker 2>our competition, and I saw your interview with Andrew last week.

0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:53.880
<v Speaker 3>You said this is like October of nineteen ninety nine.

0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:56.560
<v Speaker 2>But after that, as you pointed out, you know, the

0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:59.440
<v Speaker 2>stock market doubled. We had a drop in October, like

0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:01.960
<v Speaker 2>an eleven cent inter day drop, but then the stock

0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:04.800
<v Speaker 2>market doubled to March of two thousand. Are we still

0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:07.840
<v Speaker 2>in line for a doubling of this market?

0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:12.480
<v Speaker 1>Well, it's so funny because you had mentioned that fifty

0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:15.480
<v Speaker 1>four percent of fund managers think that we're in an

0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:16.360
<v Speaker 1>AI bubble.

0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:19.920
<v Speaker 4>If it's a bubble, it's it's a small one.

0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:22.600
<v Speaker 1>If you just think about and again, how do you

0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:25.359
<v Speaker 1>actually define bubbles? If you think about the bubbles of

0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:29.160
<v Speaker 1>the past three or four decades, the nikkiing eighty nine,

0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:34.520
<v Speaker 1>nasdek of ninety nine, Biotech two thousand and just after

0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:38.760
<v Speaker 1>twenty eleven, twelve, China two thousand and seven. All those

0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:42.600
<v Speaker 1>were four to six hundred percent gains. The Nasdaq's up

0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:46.600
<v Speaker 1>two hundred percent off the bottom. So I don't know

0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:49.520
<v Speaker 1>whether we're going to blow off like we did in

0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:53.360
<v Speaker 1>nineteen ninety nine. Is it possible or all the ingredients

0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:56.600
<v Speaker 1>in place, I think clearly they are.

0:03:57.360 --> 0:03:57.720
<v Speaker 4>For me.

0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:03.240
<v Speaker 1>The one thing that you can never ever forget is

0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:06.960
<v Speaker 1>that a year from today, assuming that the President gets

0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:10.600
<v Speaker 1>his wishes, that the FED funds rates can probably be

0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:14.520
<v Speaker 1>and then two and a half. You know, I think

0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:16.400
<v Speaker 1>they're I think they would like to see that two

0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:18.880
<v Speaker 1>and a quarter. So I think two and a half,

0:04:18.960 --> 0:04:21.800
<v Speaker 1>two seventy five. Obviously, whoever the new FED chair is

0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:26.320
<v Speaker 1>going to have to be able to intellectually move that board.

0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:29.120
<v Speaker 1>A majority of the board, he's probably whoever the new

0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:31.840
<v Speaker 1>FED chair, Let's say they've got six solid votes, so

0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:34.679
<v Speaker 1>he'll have to find one more.

0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:36.840
<v Speaker 4>And I don't think it'll be that hard to do.

0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:39.320
<v Speaker 1>But if you're going to have two and a half

0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:43.719
<v Speaker 1>percent overnight rates or two seventy five, that's a really

0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:46.840
<v Speaker 1>compelling story for higher equity prices.

0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:47.920
<v Speaker 3>Well, not just that.

0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:51.200
<v Speaker 2>I mean you've got Neil Casar on our opinion team

0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:53.640
<v Speaker 2>yesterday laid out the argument that this is not the

0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:56.600
<v Speaker 2>same as nineteen ninety nine because these companies are so profitable. Right,

0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:58.520
<v Speaker 2>ninety five percent of the S and P five hundred

0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:01.560
<v Speaker 2>is expected to post innings growth next year, and the

0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:04.719
<v Speaker 2>average earnings growth is sixteen percent. It's obviously a lot

0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:09.080
<v Speaker 2>more for the mag seven or the Great eight. Plus,

0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:10.680
<v Speaker 2>you don't have the same kind of leverage that you

0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:12.680
<v Speaker 2>had back then. You have less than one hundred percent

0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:15.159
<v Speaker 2>debt to equity, and in nineteen ninety nine it was

0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:15.800
<v Speaker 2>more than double that.

0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:16.880
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:20.280
<v Speaker 1>Well, the only thing I'd say is I don't think

0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:23.520
<v Speaker 1>you've got the leverage necessarily in the corporate balance sheetshet

0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:28.280
<v Speaker 1>you clearly have leverage within the equity ecosystem, And by

0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:32.119
<v Speaker 1>that I mean you just had a proliferation and explosion

0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:36.360
<v Speaker 1>in derivative products. I want to say that lebty tfs

0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:40.039
<v Speaker 1>are of two hundred and fifty percent since the twenty

0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:43.880
<v Speaker 1>twenty two bottom, and I want to say that there's

0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:47.640
<v Speaker 1>four or five hundred, with another another couple one hundred

0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:53.560
<v Speaker 1>in the pipeline. So you're clearly creating derivative leverage. Whether

0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:56.640
<v Speaker 1>it's in the options market, we see single stock options.

0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:00.080
<v Speaker 1>We just see options activity exploding.

0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:01.800
<v Speaker 4>Everywhere you look.

0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:07.240
<v Speaker 1>There's greater leverage again in the equity infrastructure.

0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:11.240
<v Speaker 4>For what has become a really trader nation.

0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:16.120
<v Speaker 1>We have the highest percentage equity holdings by individuals in history.

0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:20.320
<v Speaker 1>We have again more levered activity. You don't see it

0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:24.760
<v Speaker 1>in margin debt because margin debt is actually an old,

0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:25.960
<v Speaker 1>anachronistic tool.

0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:27.560
<v Speaker 4>You see it more so.

0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:29.640
<v Speaker 1>In the options markets. You see it more so in

0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:37.560
<v Speaker 1>the Lebrety ETFs. So it's somewhere down the road a

0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:41.000
<v Speaker 1>little similar. I don't think we're there yet, but somewhere

0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:43.800
<v Speaker 1>down the road there's gonna be There're gonna be some

0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:47.080
<v Speaker 1>there're gonna be some real issues with that.

0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.200
<v Speaker 2>Nonetheless, you're long now, right, I mean, at least last

0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:53.400
<v Speaker 2>time we spoke to you in June, you said your

0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:57.320
<v Speaker 2>portfolio would be long stocks. You said you'd be long gold,

0:06:57.680 --> 0:07:01.480
<v Speaker 2>you said you'd be long bitcoin, and those have been

0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:02.039
<v Speaker 2>great picks.

0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:03.000
<v Speaker 3>Check out this chart.

0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:08.080
<v Speaker 2>Right, gold alone is a twenty two percent gain, but

0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:10.120
<v Speaker 2>all of them are well above zero.

0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:13.640
<v Speaker 3>Do you hold onto that portfolio.

0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:19.000
<v Speaker 1>So I would take them one by one. I think

0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:24.320
<v Speaker 1>for stocks, the critical time is going to be the

0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:27.520
<v Speaker 1>last week here in October and when we see the

0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:30.160
<v Speaker 1>big tech earnings as well as by that point in

0:07:30.200 --> 0:07:33.720
<v Speaker 1>time will have greater clarity on the resolution.

0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:35.040
<v Speaker 4>Of the US China conflict.

0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:40.280
<v Speaker 1>I would think that if the Nasdaq is higher going

0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:44.080
<v Speaker 1>into early November, then you've got a chance for a

0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:48.120
<v Speaker 1>real ramp in the last two months. What happens between

0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:51.280
<v Speaker 1>now and then, I kind of think the market's going

0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:54.560
<v Speaker 1>to be the defensive until we get to that's going

0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:58.440
<v Speaker 1>to be a intersection of just so many really really

0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:02.520
<v Speaker 1>important data points, so that's going to be a critical time.

0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:05.680
<v Speaker 1>They also have a FED meeting that week, so I

0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:09.560
<v Speaker 1>would think, you know, my prior is that it will

0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:13.000
<v Speaker 1>resolve to the upside. We'll focus on where FED funds

0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:15.440
<v Speaker 1>will be. The market will look ahead six to nine

0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:21.120
<v Speaker 1>months and focus on that. Bitcoin gold are interesting. They're

0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:24.200
<v Speaker 1>interesting as a pair in the sense that if I

0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:28.200
<v Speaker 1>just look at since Liberation Day, you've had about forty

0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:34.160
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars of inflows into a combination of bitcoin and

0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:37.720
<v Speaker 1>theory metfs, and you've had a like amount of inflows

0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:39.880
<v Speaker 1>into the combination of gold and silver.

0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:42.040
<v Speaker 4>But if you think.

0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:47.079
<v Speaker 1>About it, the VALL adjusted forty billion that goes into

0:08:47.120 --> 0:08:51.480
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin because it's got had, say five six times the

0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.240
<v Speaker 1>VALL of gold was really.

0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:55.480
<v Speaker 4>A much much bigger.

0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Bet on crypto than it was on precious metals.

0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:00.959
<v Speaker 4>And yet.

0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:06.120
<v Speaker 1>Gold has outperformed Bitcoin since that period in time. So

0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:13.400
<v Speaker 1>clearly retail has made a mistake in terms of trying

0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:16.640
<v Speaker 1>to figure out which of the two debasement trades were

0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:20.320
<v Speaker 1>going to outperform. And I have to admit, until a

0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:22.960
<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks ago, I thought bitcoin digital goal was

0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:27.880
<v Speaker 1>going to outperform again the historic stores of value. I

0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:31.240
<v Speaker 1>think they're both probably still good. But my guess is,

0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:34.400
<v Speaker 1>again we're here in the fourth quarter momentum into the

0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:37.720
<v Speaker 1>end of the year that of those two it appears

0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:42.679
<v Speaker 1>that gold and silver are going to outperform crypto. You know,

0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:45.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm always going to be a trend trader. I'm always

0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:50.040
<v Speaker 1>going to follow the momentum, and I'm not going to

0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:53.280
<v Speaker 1>be so prideful that I'm going to try to outguess

0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:54.480
<v Speaker 1>what the market's telling me.

0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:58.199
<v Speaker 2>But you do think that we continue to see infleetion

0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:02.160
<v Speaker 2>Because I've been talking to Neil Dudda from Renaissance Macker.

0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:06.200
<v Speaker 2>He's pushing back on this. He says inflation hawks need

0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:09.480
<v Speaker 2>to seek help. But his main point, I think is

0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:13.000
<v Speaker 2>that housing, that the shelter component is going to come down.

0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:15.839
<v Speaker 2>And he said a note last week housing prices are

0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:18.920
<v Speaker 2>likely declining. The fact that home buyer demand has declined

0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:23.319
<v Speaker 2>even as rates have dropped suggests that a deflationary psychology

0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:25.080
<v Speaker 2>has infected the housing market.

0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:31.079
<v Speaker 1>By that, I think, I'm probably looking past current conditions

0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:35.480
<v Speaker 1>and I'm just thinking about the future. And we're we're

0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:42.840
<v Speaker 1>in a fiscally constrained time. So why is it that

0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:48.080
<v Speaker 1>the president is hell bent on finding a fed share

0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:51.120
<v Speaker 1>that's going to have easy money. Because the only way

0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:54.240
<v Speaker 1>that we can reduce our debt to GDP, that you

0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:56.800
<v Speaker 1>could even begin to deal with a six percent budget

0:10:56.800 --> 0:11:00.319
<v Speaker 1>deficit is to have the lowest funds rates you can

0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:03.600
<v Speaker 1>possibly have, to lower your interest costs to stimulate growth,

0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:06.640
<v Speaker 1>et cetera. The only way to reduce that the GDP

0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:10.000
<v Speaker 1>is to have obviously nominal growth exceed your interest rate.

0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:17.200
<v Speaker 1>So in a situation like that, particularly given where we

0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:20.199
<v Speaker 1>are in this economic cycle where we are now, it's

0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:22.640
<v Speaker 1>just hard not to see and I think this is

0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:26.920
<v Speaker 1>what the market's looking ahead to see inflation not be

0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:32.800
<v Speaker 1>rekindled and start up again six twelve in a more

0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:35.120
<v Speaker 1>serious fashion eighteen months.

0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:36.240
<v Speaker 4>Hence you can kind.

0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:40.680
<v Speaker 1>Of see it now. It's again think of this. We

0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:46.199
<v Speaker 1>have three hundred and seventy trillion dollars worth of global

0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:47.600
<v Speaker 1>financial assets.

0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:49.400
<v Speaker 4>Three hundred and seventy trillion.

0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:53.200
<v Speaker 1>So when you come to a market like goal, which

0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:59.160
<v Speaker 1>is twelve trillion silver, which is, oh my lord, a

0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:02.520
<v Speaker 1>fraction of that bitcoin crypto, which is say two to

0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:07.520
<v Speaker 1>three trillion, it doesn't take very much. Then you start

0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:10.040
<v Speaker 1>thinking about the copper markets and some of the other

0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:14.320
<v Speaker 1>rare earth minerals, and you think about just individual commodities.

0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:20.319
<v Speaker 1>Good gosh, the ability to elevate those prices. Because we

0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:24.080
<v Speaker 1>have so much again money and financial assets, it just

0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:29.200
<v Speaker 1>takes a small tweak to really begin to create a

0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:31.360
<v Speaker 1>rise in the price level. And I think we'll see

0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:35.640
<v Speaker 1>that assuming that we have a new FED chair who's

0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:38.800
<v Speaker 1>going to take the funds rate down to two and

0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.960
<v Speaker 1>a half percent, and I think the White House is

0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:44.240
<v Speaker 1>thinking they'd like to see the funds rate at two

0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:45.600
<v Speaker 1>and a quarter to two and a half.

0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.240
<v Speaker 2>Will we see a significant dropping the dollar from that

0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:52.520
<v Speaker 2>because we had seen right in the first half, the

0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.640
<v Speaker 2>biggest drop for the dollars since nineteen seventy three, that's

0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.000
<v Speaker 2>the year I was born, so a long time.

0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:00.600
<v Speaker 3>Ago, but we're obeyed, but we have.

0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:05.079
<v Speaker 2>But we have recently seen the dollar recovering, showing a

0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:07.000
<v Speaker 2>little bit of strength here as people look for I

0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:08.040
<v Speaker 2>think safe haven in that.

0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.800
<v Speaker 1>Well, look, you've got a you've got an FX, you've

0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:16.040
<v Speaker 1>got to you've got a fiat money debasement going on

0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.920
<v Speaker 1>pretty much virtually around the world.

0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:19.280
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:23.680
<v Speaker 1>The bond vigilantes, though, are being held in check by

0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:30.880
<v Speaker 1>again central banks and populism that are pushing central bankers

0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:36.800
<v Speaker 1>to run hot. So the the currency debasement trade has

0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:42.600
<v Speaker 1>really turned into a gold trade and a crypto trade. Right,

0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:46.920
<v Speaker 1>Bond vigilantes have been have been shunted to the back,

0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 1>told or been put in abeyance, and instead it's manifesting

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.079
<v Speaker 1>itself in gold and crypto.

0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 4>That's really what's going on.

0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:59.120
<v Speaker 1>So uh again, look at the new Prime Issu of Japan,

0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:03.679
<v Speaker 1>she's all read advocating for the boj to go slow

0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.680
<v Speaker 1>on normalizing rates. You can't make it up. They got

0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:11.000
<v Speaker 1>they've gotten negative, they've got negative one and a half percent,

0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:13.800
<v Speaker 1>and it's almost like they just want to deny that

0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:18.080
<v Speaker 1>they have an inflation problem. But so that's what we're seeing.

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 1>And again, at some point in time, at some point

0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:26.960
<v Speaker 1>in time, we're going to have some precipitous moments in

0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:30.760
<v Speaker 1>sovereign debt markets. I don't know whether it's Japanese bond market,

0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:33.320
<v Speaker 1>the US bond market, but we're going to have some

0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:38.160
<v Speaker 1>precipitous times. And if you just think about we had,

0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:40.800
<v Speaker 1>we're not even close to that yet. We're not even

0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:44.480
<v Speaker 1>close to that trust moment we had three years ago

0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.560
<v Speaker 1>where the currency was under attack, the stock market, the

0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:51.400
<v Speaker 1>bond market was under attack. Just imagine if and when

0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:53.720
<v Speaker 1>we get to that day, which I think with six

0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:57.440
<v Speaker 1>percent budget deficits in the US, that day will come.

0:14:57.880 --> 0:14:59.840
<v Speaker 4>Just imagine what.

0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.760
<v Speaker 1>Gold and crypto for that matter of the dollar, imagine

0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:07.280
<v Speaker 1>what they're all doing. We're in good times now, right,

0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.240
<v Speaker 1>even with a shutdown. Yea, even with the shutdown, we're

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:11.200
<v Speaker 1>in good times now.

0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:12.880
<v Speaker 3>I wonder what you think about that.

0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:15.360
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned rare Earth's and even we can't inflate our

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:17.600
<v Speaker 2>way out of that problem, right, JD. Van said, we

0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:20.000
<v Speaker 2>have the cards, but it seems to me China has

0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:22.640
<v Speaker 2>us between a rock and a hard place. Mereth Whitney

0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:26.000
<v Speaker 2>put out a note on Sunday and she says, you know,

0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:29.560
<v Speaker 2>don't bother being distracted by one hundred percent additional tariffs

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.920
<v Speaker 2>that President Trump was talking about, because aside from the

0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:36.920
<v Speaker 2>massive dependence on the US industrial complex for these rare

0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:40.080
<v Speaker 2>earth minerals and magnets, the US military is one hundred

0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:41.400
<v Speaker 2>percent dependent on them and is.

0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:45.640
<v Speaker 3>Nearly depleted of its reserves. What can we do about that?

0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I'm sorry, I don't have a good answer for

0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:48.440
<v Speaker 1>that one.

0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:49.200
<v Speaker 4>I wish I did.

0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 1>I really I don't envying Trump in his cabinet trying

0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:00.680
<v Speaker 1>to figure out what's going to happen here in two weeks.

0:16:00.720 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 4>I really don't.

0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:05.720
<v Speaker 2>I just think of the strategy that it looks like

0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:06.600
<v Speaker 2>the White House is falling.

0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:06.840
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:09.120
<v Speaker 2>They take a steak in MP materials, they take a

0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:14.720
<v Speaker 2>steak in lithium Americas. They're trying to ramp up mining

0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:16.800
<v Speaker 2>so they can produce these things, and at the same

0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.760
<v Speaker 2>time they're taking steaks in private companies. How do you

0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:22.479
<v Speaker 2>feel about that? As a long term free market capitalist?

0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.280
<v Speaker 2>The US government getting in and picking winners and losers.

0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:27.200
<v Speaker 4>I'm not in favor of that.

0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 1>And again, the reason why is it's the same reason

0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:37.200
<v Speaker 1>my concerns are. I see concentration risk everywhere.

0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:37.640
<v Speaker 4>I'll look.

0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:42.240
<v Speaker 1>Well, now we have individual investors with the highest equity

0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:46.120
<v Speaker 1>allocation they've ever had in the history of the United States,

0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:51.760
<v Speaker 1>really four times that of the rest of the developed world.

0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:55.840
<v Speaker 1>So I get nervous about that concentration. I get nervous

0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:59.040
<v Speaker 1>about the fact that we have thirty five percent of

0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:02.920
<v Speaker 1>the SMP's now concentrating the seven stocks. I get nervous

0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:07.800
<v Speaker 1>about the fact that this administration, even if all those decisions.

0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:09.040
<v Speaker 4>Were smart and correct.

0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:13.800
<v Speaker 1>Again, if you just think about the number one rule

0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:19.000
<v Speaker 1>of portfolio of portfolio management is you want diversification. That's

0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:22.879
<v Speaker 1>why our founding fathers create us as a democracy, not

0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:28.199
<v Speaker 1>a monarchy, because you want that contestation of ideas. So

0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:36.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm nervous when I see concentration.

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:37.720
<v Speaker 4>Virtually in anything.

0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:39.919
<v Speaker 1>Again, whether it's in the stock market, whether it's the

0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:42.399
<v Speaker 1>composition of the stock market, who owns the stock market,

0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:46.000
<v Speaker 1>or the decision making that's getting made in Washington. It

0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:49.680
<v Speaker 1>makes me nervous because I don't think in the long run, right,

0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>even if all the decisions that President Trump making are great?

0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:55.560
<v Speaker 1>Is that going to embolden the next president who may

0:17:55.600 --> 0:17:58.359
<v Speaker 1>not make as good as decisions to do the same thing.

0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:04.000
<v Speaker 1>So I'll look, I'll look at that, and again it

0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:05.560
<v Speaker 1>raises caution flags.

0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 2>But you're still you're still long stocks right now, You're

0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:09.920
<v Speaker 2>still long the Nasdaq.

0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:14.159
<v Speaker 1>I am. I wouldn't say I'm long at this second.

0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:19.159
<v Speaker 1>I'm clearly again, I think there's such a confluence of

0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 1>possibly negative, possibly positive events. I think I want to

0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:26.280
<v Speaker 1>kind of wait and see where we are and in

0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:30.439
<v Speaker 1>a week or two times, but my belief is that

0:18:30.480 --> 0:18:33.040
<v Speaker 1>we'll be substantially hired by the end of the year.

0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:36.359
<v Speaker 2>All right, So just to end on where we started

0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:39.520
<v Speaker 2>with the pick a ticker contest for Robinhood, I asked

0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:41.560
<v Speaker 2>you last time, and I'll ask you again.

0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:45.320
<v Speaker 3>For players at home. Yeah, what tips would you give us?

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:46.200
<v Speaker 3>What would you put?

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:51.159
<v Speaker 1>I'll probably so, I think it's going to begin November one,

0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:53.639
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure I'll probably be long. The Nasdaq will be

0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.920
<v Speaker 1>my long remember.

0:18:57.200 --> 0:18:59.280
<v Speaker 4>You See, it's really interesting because.

0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:05.240
<v Speaker 1>The last twelve months of a bull market typically you

0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:07.880
<v Speaker 1>double the annual gains up until.

0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:10.600
<v Speaker 4>That point in time. But that's to the end of

0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:11.240
<v Speaker 4>the bull market.

0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:15.840
<v Speaker 1>So we've got this situation confronting us where the best

0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:19.440
<v Speaker 1>part of the market's possibly straight ahead, but it's also

0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.280
<v Speaker 1>the most dangerous because it could be the top. So

0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:27.040
<v Speaker 1>I would probably be long. The Nasdaq would be my long,

0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:29.400
<v Speaker 1>and I'm I've got to think about what my short

0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:29.760
<v Speaker 1>would be.

0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:31.240
<v Speaker 4>It could be.

0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:36.080
<v Speaker 1>H it might be the bond market again, though that'll

0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:36.879
<v Speaker 1>be a bit boring.

0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:38.440
<v Speaker 3>Now, that wouldn't be boring.

0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:41.159
<v Speaker 2>I'll take it, okay, Paul, thanks so much for joining us.

0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:42.640
<v Speaker 3>Really appreciate your time.

0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.560
<v Speaker 2>Paul Tutor Jones, Coach, chairman, the chief investment Officer of

0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:49.040
<v Speaker 2>course of Tutor Investment Corporation and the founder of Robin

0:19:49.040 --> 0:19:49.280
<v Speaker 2>Hood