Speaker 1: John Bolton, I'm sure has some ideas about this though,
Speaker 1: and it's a great pleasure to have the former National
Speaker 1: Security advisor with us from President Trump's first term. Former
Speaker 1: US Ambassador to the United Nations and founder of the
Speaker 1: Foundation for American Security and Freedom. John Bolton, Welcome back
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I know you have strong
Speaker 1: feelings about this, and you've been around the block when
Speaker 1: it comes to Venezuela in the first term. Can I
Speaker 1: just start by asking you if you think the administration
Speaker 1: acted correctly last weekend.
Speaker 2: Well, I think it was the right thing to do
Speaker 2: to begin the process of getting the Maduro regime out
Speaker 2: of power and turning the government of Venezuela back over
Speaker 2: to the people. There's no doubt that in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 2: as in twenty eighteen, Maduro's stole the election, the opposition
Speaker 2: had won legitimately and really are the legitimate government of Venezuela.
Speaker 2: But I think we've removed Maduro, but the regime is
Speaker 2: still there. There's no regime change at this point. Very
Speaker 2: concerned that the way the president attacked Maria Corrina Machado,
Speaker 2: the leader of the opposition, said she didn't have respect
Speaker 2: in the country. Really the opposition wasn't up to governing
Speaker 2: and turning to the likes of Delsi Rodriguez and really
Speaker 2: Maduro's henchmen and hench women who are still there and
Speaker 2: believing they're going to be a transition. It puts us
Speaker 2: in a very difficult position. I'm worried that we've removed
Speaker 2: the face of the regime, but not the regime itself.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, Well, to that end, I know that you
Speaker 1: had concerns about Maduro in the president's first term, and
Speaker 1: we did a little bit of digging on this. Having
Speaker 1: had sat down with Maduro, my colleague Eric Shatzker in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one traveled to Caracas to talk to him
Speaker 1: about global politics, and Maduro said at the time he
Speaker 1: was in talks with the first Trump administration with you,
Speaker 1: John Bolton, around a meeting at the UN General Assembly
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen. Maduro specifically implicated you as having canceled
Speaker 1: that meeting. Listen to what he told us in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one.
Speaker 3: I was about to personally meet him on September twenty eighteen,
Speaker 3: was President Donald Trump. When I went to the UN
Speaker 3: General Assembly in New York. We got a call from
Speaker 3: the White House. But we knew about John Bolton's pressure
Speaker 3: and that of other people around Donald Trump to prevent
Speaker 3: his attempt to meet me. If we had met, it
Speaker 3: had been a different story.
Speaker 1: Today, John Bolton, Is that true And to what extent,
Speaker 1: if so, did that moment inform Donald Trump's views on
Speaker 1: Venezuela today?
Speaker 2: Well, I wish it were true. I wish I wish
Speaker 2: I could stop meetings like that that easily. But he's
Speaker 2: making that up. But it's a good story. So if
Speaker 2: he wants to believe it, let him tell that to
Speaker 2: the Court.
Speaker 4: And Master Bolton. If we're looking at what is going
Speaker 4: to happen next here, there's a lot of different messaging,
Speaker 4: a lot of different rhetoric. We hear from President Trump
Speaker 4: that the US is going to run, But if we
Speaker 4: look at what other advisors are saying, we keep hearing
Speaker 4: the idea that there's a lot of leverage points here
Speaker 4: by the US, the embargo on oil, the military armada
Speaker 4: poised still potentially pointing at Venezuela. Do you think that
Speaker 4: the US is enough leverage to make change in Venezuela
Speaker 4: from Afar through these kind of pressure points.
Speaker 2: Well, I'd like to know what the plan is. If
Speaker 2: that's what they think they're going to do, I'd be
Speaker 2: the happiest person around if the rest of the Maduro
Speaker 2: regime collapse tomorrow. But when you hear from the administration
Speaker 2: the usual anonymous sources that they think they can work
Speaker 2: with del Rodriguez to transition to something, I don't know
Speaker 2: what the something is, And that the Venezuelan oil industry
Speaker 2: is just going to emerge from the ashes and suddenly
Speaker 2: be a big producer again. I think people are dreaming.
Speaker 2: I think this is a very difficult and dangerous situation.
Speaker 2: I think that the administration has acted in a ad hoc,
Speaker 2: day to day fashion that doesn't guarantee failure. But let's
Speaker 2: be clear. If the objective is to turn Venezuela into
Speaker 2: a society where it's people actually govern it, and maybe
Speaker 2: that's not Trump's intention, but if that is, they're a
Speaker 2: long way from it. And anybody who thinks the Venezuelan
Speaker 2: oil industry is going to emerge from the ashes in
Speaker 2: a matter of weeks or months or even a couple
Speaker 2: of years doesn't know how bad the situation is.
Speaker 4: So then what is it going to take to help
Speaker 4: fuel that turnaround because we have reporting, As we mentioned
Speaker 4: at the top of the show, people familiar telling Bloomberg
Speaker 4: News that part of why this White House thinks that
Speaker 4: it can work with Delsea Rodriguez is because she could
Speaker 4: serve as that bridge between the government and the private sector.
Speaker 4: Because it seems like there has to be such an
Speaker 4: emphasis on potential investment and rebuilding the infrastructure in order
Speaker 4: for Venezuela to get on sound economic footing.
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know what they base that on, and
Speaker 2: I'd like to know. So what CEO of what major
Speaker 2: American oil company is just getting all of his top
Speaker 2: advisors together to get on a plane to go to
Speaker 2: Caracas and put billions and billions of capital expenditures into Venezuela.
Speaker 2: The political situation is unstable. By the way, the price
Speaker 2: of oil is still at fifty five to sixty dollars
Speaker 2: a barrel. I'm not sure anybody thinks that more capital investment,
Speaker 2: more drilling, more oil on the market is going to
Speaker 2: benefit the oil companies at this point. I think there's
Speaker 2: a lot of hot air out there about what's going on,
Speaker 2: and that's dangerous because if you're planning is not based
Speaker 2: on reality, when reality finally strikes you have no plan
Speaker 2: B to back up to.
Speaker 1: You mentioned Maria Karina Machado. She turned up on Fox
Speaker 1: News last evening, of all places, on the Hannity Program,
Speaker 1: presumably to get the attention of Donald Trump. Here's what
Speaker 1: she said.
Speaker 5: I'm planning to go back to Venezuela as soon as possible,
Speaker 5: as I've always seen Sean every day make a decision
Speaker 5: where I am more useful for a cost. That's why
Speaker 5: I stayed in hiding for over sixteen months, and that's
Speaker 5: why I decided to go out, because I believed that
Speaker 5: at this moment I'm more useful to our costs being
Speaker 5: able to speak out from where I am right now.
Speaker 5: But I'm planning to go as soon as fossil back home.
Speaker 1: She's talking about sharing her Nobel Peace Prize somehow with
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. Could she be a partner or has the
Speaker 1: administration turned away from her permanently.
Speaker 2: Well, I think they damaged her and the opposition very
Speaker 2: badly on Saturday. I think the opposition just ordinary people
Speaker 2: inside Venezuela. I wonder what it means when the US
Speaker 2: doesn't trust its leadership. Now, maybe she can work her
Speaker 2: way back into his good graces. My recommendation would be
Speaker 2: giving the Nobel Peace Prize medal that you get. The
Speaker 2: Nobel Foundation can make another one just for you, but
Speaker 2: give it to Trump otherwise you know what he's going
Speaker 2: to do. Theodore Roosevelt won the Nobel Peace Prize for
Speaker 2: me war between Russia and Japan during his term as president,
Speaker 2: and his Nobel Prize hangs on the wall of the
Speaker 2: Roosevelt Room and the White House. I've been worried recently
Speaker 2: Trump's just going to take it off the wall so
Speaker 2: he can have it for himself. So Missus Mashadow gives
Speaker 2: him hers. Maybe that'll take care of that.
Speaker 4: Wow. We also want to talk about potential ripple effects here,
Speaker 4: what could come next when it comes to other countries.
Speaker 4: And I'm actually particularly interested about the potential impacts for China.
Speaker 4: Of course, a huge importer of Venezuelan crude. But China's
Speaker 4: made a lot of significant inroads when it comes to
Speaker 4: Latin America, signing on signatories to its Bell and Rode
Speaker 4: infrastructure initiatives. Could this hurt Beijing's efforts to make those
Speaker 4: inroads in Latin America? How is this changing the calculus
Speaker 4: in terms of the US Beijing competition.
Speaker 2: Well, I think the most important American strategic interest in
Speaker 2: Venezuela is the increasing influence of malign foreign powers that
Speaker 2: don't have the best interest of the United States at heart.
Speaker 2: That certainly starts with Russia and Cuba. That was the
Speaker 2: main problem back in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. But
Speaker 2: Iran and China are big players on the sea now,
Speaker 2: and as you say, China has an enormous concern with
Speaker 2: Venezuela's oil reserves and its production. The Chinese look for
Speaker 2: oil wherever they can find it. They're an energy poor
Speaker 2: country whose economy depends on getting these foreign sources, and
Speaker 2: by most estimates, including the estimates of the US government,
Speaker 2: Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, more
Speaker 2: even than Saudi Arabia, and yet it produces an insignificant
Speaker 2: amount of oil. Of that oil it produces, China buys
Speaker 2: about eighty percent of the production, according to the most
Speaker 2: recent statistics. So I don't think Beijing is going to
Speaker 2: sit idly by while a new government comes in that
Speaker 2: may be more hospitable to American investment and possibly exclude
Speaker 2: China from from the Venezuelan reserve. So what China is
Speaker 2: doing behind the scenes, we don't know. There were high
Speaker 2: level Chinese meeting with Maduro literally within a day or
Speaker 2: two of his being grabbed over the weekend. And what
Speaker 2: policies China is pursuing, what aid it may be giving
Speaker 2: to what remains of the Maduro government. What Russia and
Speaker 2: Cuba and Iran are doing, we don't know, But I
Speaker 2: don't I don't think they're just going to withdraw quietly
Speaker 2: from the scene.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, as we consider what many are now
Speaker 1: referring to as the Dunroe doctrine, John Bolton, I wonder
Speaker 1: who you think should worry more right now, Greenland or Iran.
Speaker 2: Well, it's it's I think I think Iran should be
Speaker 2: more worried, given the protests which continue to grow all
Speaker 2: across Iran, not just in Tehran. This regime in Tehran
Speaker 2: is very weak, UH, and I think the levels of
Speaker 2: discontent in the country have never been higher.
Speaker 4: UH.
Speaker 2: And the world would be a lot safer if the
Speaker 2: regime of the Iatolas fell and you could get some
Speaker 2: kind of alternative, hopefully free government in Iran. I think
Speaker 2: what Trump says about Greenland and his interest in taking
Speaker 2: control of Greenland very harmful to the NATO Alliance. You know, Greenland,
Speaker 2: part of Denmark, is a NATO ally. Denmark has been
Speaker 2: an ally of the United States for years, and you
Speaker 2: have advisors to the President saying on national television that
Speaker 2: Denmark's claim to the island is illegitimate and nobody will
Speaker 2: oppose American force if we decide to use it. If
Speaker 2: we did, it would destroy the NATO Alliance. But even
Speaker 2: this chatter is irresponsible. Isn't taking into account the real
Speaker 2: threats we face in the United States. We have a
Speaker 2: legitimate security interest in Greenland. So does the entire NATO Alliance.
Speaker 2: And if we just took this out of the spotlight
Speaker 2: and work cooperatively together, I think we could ensure greater security,
Speaker 2: not just for Greenland, but for the entire alliance. All Right.
Speaker 4: John Bolton, former National Security advisor in President Trump's first term,
Speaker 4: former US Ambassador to the United Nations and founder of
Speaker 4: the Foundation for American Security and Freedom. Ambassador Bolton, thanks
Speaker 4: so much for joining us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.