WEBVTT - John Bolton Talks Venezuela, US Access to Oil Reserves

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<v Speaker 1>John Bolton, I'm sure has some ideas about this though,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's a great pleasure to have the former National

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<v Speaker 1>Security advisor with us from President Trump's first term. Former

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<v Speaker 1>US Ambassador to the United Nations and founder of the

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<v Speaker 1>Foundation for American Security and Freedom. John Bolton, Welcome back

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I know you have strong

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<v Speaker 1>feelings about this, and you've been around the block when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to Venezuela in the first term. Can I

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<v Speaker 1>just start by asking you if you think the administration

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<v Speaker 1>acted correctly last weekend.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it was the right thing to do

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<v Speaker 2>to begin the process of getting the Maduro regime out

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<v Speaker 2>of power and turning the government of Venezuela back over

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<v Speaker 2>to the people. There's no doubt that in twenty twenty four,

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<v Speaker 2>as in twenty eighteen, Maduro's stole the election, the opposition

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<v Speaker 2>had won legitimately and really are the legitimate government of Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think we've removed Maduro, but the regime is

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<v Speaker 2>still there. There's no regime change at this point. Very

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<v Speaker 2>concerned that the way the president attacked Maria Corrina Machado,

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<v Speaker 2>the leader of the opposition, said she didn't have respect

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<v Speaker 2>in the country. Really the opposition wasn't up to governing

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<v Speaker 2>and turning to the likes of Delsi Rodriguez and really

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<v Speaker 2>Maduro's henchmen and hench women who are still there and

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<v Speaker 2>believing they're going to be a transition. It puts us

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<v Speaker 2>in a very difficult position. I'm worried that we've removed

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<v Speaker 2>the face of the regime, but not the regime itself.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, Yeah, Well, to that end, I know that you

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<v Speaker 1>had concerns about Maduro in the president's first term, and

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<v Speaker 1>we did a little bit of digging on this. Having

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<v Speaker 1>had sat down with Maduro, my colleague Eric Shatzker in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty one traveled to Caracas to talk to him

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<v Speaker 1>about global politics, and Maduro said at the time he

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<v Speaker 1>was in talks with the first Trump administration with you,

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<v Speaker 1>John Bolton, around a meeting at the UN General Assembly

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty eighteen. Maduro specifically implicated you as having canceled

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<v Speaker 1>that meeting. Listen to what he told us in twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one.

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<v Speaker 3>I was about to personally meet him on September twenty eighteen,

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<v Speaker 3>was President Donald Trump. When I went to the UN

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<v Speaker 3>General Assembly in New York. We got a call from

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<v Speaker 3>the White House. But we knew about John Bolton's pressure

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<v Speaker 3>and that of other people around Donald Trump to prevent

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<v Speaker 3>his attempt to meet me. If we had met, it

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<v Speaker 3>had been a different story.

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<v Speaker 1>Today, John Bolton, Is that true And to what extent,

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<v Speaker 1>if so, did that moment inform Donald Trump's views on

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<v Speaker 1>Venezuela today?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I wish it were true. I wish I wish

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<v Speaker 2>I could stop meetings like that that easily. But he's

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<v Speaker 2>making that up. But it's a good story. So if

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<v Speaker 2>he wants to believe it, let him tell that to

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<v Speaker 2>the Court.

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<v Speaker 4>And Master Bolton. If we're looking at what is going

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<v Speaker 4>to happen next here, there's a lot of different messaging,

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of different rhetoric. We hear from President Trump

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<v Speaker 4>that the US is going to run, But if we

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<v Speaker 4>look at what other advisors are saying, we keep hearing

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<v Speaker 4>the idea that there's a lot of leverage points here

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<v Speaker 4>by the US, the embargo on oil, the military armada

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<v Speaker 4>poised still potentially pointing at Venezuela. Do you think that

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<v Speaker 4>the US is enough leverage to make change in Venezuela

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<v Speaker 4>from Afar through these kind of pressure points.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I'd like to know what the plan is. If

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<v Speaker 2>that's what they think they're going to do, I'd be

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<v Speaker 2>the happiest person around if the rest of the Maduro

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<v Speaker 2>regime collapse tomorrow. But when you hear from the administration

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<v Speaker 2>the usual anonymous sources that they think they can work

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<v Speaker 2>with del Rodriguez to transition to something, I don't know

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<v Speaker 2>what the something is, And that the Venezuelan oil industry

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<v Speaker 2>is just going to emerge from the ashes and suddenly

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<v Speaker 2>be a big producer again. I think people are dreaming.

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<v Speaker 2>I think this is a very difficult and dangerous situation.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that the administration has acted in a ad hoc,

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<v Speaker 2>day to day fashion that doesn't guarantee failure. But let's

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<v Speaker 2>be clear. If the objective is to turn Venezuela into

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<v Speaker 2>a society where it's people actually govern it, and maybe

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<v Speaker 2>that's not Trump's intention, but if that is, they're a

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<v Speaker 2>long way from it. And anybody who thinks the Venezuelan

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<v Speaker 2>oil industry is going to emerge from the ashes in

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<v Speaker 2>a matter of weeks or months or even a couple

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<v Speaker 2>of years doesn't know how bad the situation is.

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<v Speaker 4>So then what is it going to take to help

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<v Speaker 4>fuel that turnaround because we have reporting, As we mentioned

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<v Speaker 4>at the top of the show, people familiar telling Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 4>News that part of why this White House thinks that

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<v Speaker 4>it can work with Delsea Rodriguez is because she could

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<v Speaker 4>serve as that bridge between the government and the private sector.

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<v Speaker 4>Because it seems like there has to be such an

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<v Speaker 4>emphasis on potential investment and rebuilding the infrastructure in order

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<v Speaker 4>for Venezuela to get on sound economic footing.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't know what they base that on, and

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<v Speaker 2>I'd like to know. So what CEO of what major

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<v Speaker 2>American oil company is just getting all of his top

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<v Speaker 2>advisors together to get on a plane to go to

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<v Speaker 2>Caracas and put billions and billions of capital expenditures into Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 2>The political situation is unstable. By the way, the price

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<v Speaker 2>of oil is still at fifty five to sixty dollars

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<v Speaker 2>a barrel. I'm not sure anybody thinks that more capital investment,

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<v Speaker 2>more drilling, more oil on the market is going to

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<v Speaker 2>benefit the oil companies at this point. I think there's

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of hot air out there about what's going on,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's dangerous because if you're planning is not based

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<v Speaker 2>on reality, when reality finally strikes you have no plan

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<v Speaker 2>B to back up to.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned Maria Karina Machado. She turned up on Fox

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<v Speaker 1>News last evening, of all places, on the Hannity Program,

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<v Speaker 1>presumably to get the attention of Donald Trump. Here's what

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<v Speaker 1>she said.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm planning to go back to Venezuela as soon as possible,

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<v Speaker 5>as I've always seen Sean every day make a decision

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<v Speaker 5>where I am more useful for a cost. That's why

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<v Speaker 5>I stayed in hiding for over sixteen months, and that's

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<v Speaker 5>why I decided to go out, because I believed that

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<v Speaker 5>at this moment I'm more useful to our costs being

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<v Speaker 5>able to speak out from where I am right now.

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<v Speaker 5>But I'm planning to go as soon as fossil back home.

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<v Speaker 1>She's talking about sharing her Nobel Peace Prize somehow with

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump. Could she be a partner or has the

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<v Speaker 1>administration turned away from her permanently.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think they damaged her and the opposition very

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<v Speaker 2>badly on Saturday. I think the opposition just ordinary people

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<v Speaker 2>inside Venezuela. I wonder what it means when the US

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't trust its leadership. Now, maybe she can work her

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<v Speaker 2>way back into his good graces. My recommendation would be

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<v Speaker 2>giving the Nobel Peace Prize medal that you get. The

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<v Speaker 2>Nobel Foundation can make another one just for you, but

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<v Speaker 2>give it to Trump otherwise you know what he's going

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<v Speaker 2>to do. Theodore Roosevelt won the Nobel Peace Prize for

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<v Speaker 2>me war between Russia and Japan during his term as president,

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<v Speaker 2>and his Nobel Prize hangs on the wall of the

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<v Speaker 2>Roosevelt Room and the White House. I've been worried recently

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's just going to take it off the wall so

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<v Speaker 2>he can have it for himself. So Missus Mashadow gives

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<v Speaker 2>him hers. Maybe that'll take care of that.

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<v Speaker 4>Wow. We also want to talk about potential ripple effects here,

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<v Speaker 4>what could come next when it comes to other countries.

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<v Speaker 4>And I'm actually particularly interested about the potential impacts for China.

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<v Speaker 4>Of course, a huge importer of Venezuelan crude. But China's

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<v Speaker 4>made a lot of significant inroads when it comes to

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<v Speaker 4>Latin America, signing on signatories to its Bell and Rode

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<v Speaker 4>infrastructure initiatives. Could this hurt Beijing's efforts to make those

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<v Speaker 4>inroads in Latin America? How is this changing the calculus

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<v Speaker 4>in terms of the US Beijing competition.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think the most important American strategic interest in

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<v Speaker 2>Venezuela is the increasing influence of malign foreign powers that

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<v Speaker 2>don't have the best interest of the United States at heart.

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<v Speaker 2>That certainly starts with Russia and Cuba. That was the

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<v Speaker 2>main problem back in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. But

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<v Speaker 2>Iran and China are big players on the sea now,

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<v Speaker 2>and as you say, China has an enormous concern with

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<v Speaker 2>Venezuela's oil reserves and its production. The Chinese look for

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<v Speaker 2>oil wherever they can find it. They're an energy poor

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<v Speaker 2>country whose economy depends on getting these foreign sources, and

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<v Speaker 2>by most estimates, including the estimates of the US government,

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<v Speaker 2>Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, more

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<v Speaker 2>even than Saudi Arabia, and yet it produces an insignificant

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<v Speaker 2>amount of oil. Of that oil it produces, China buys

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<v Speaker 2>about eighty percent of the production, according to the most

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<v Speaker 2>recent statistics. So I don't think Beijing is going to

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<v Speaker 2>sit idly by while a new government comes in that

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<v Speaker 2>may be more hospitable to American investment and possibly exclude

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<v Speaker 2>China from from the Venezuelan reserve. So what China is

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<v Speaker 2>doing behind the scenes, we don't know. There were high

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<v Speaker 2>level Chinese meeting with Maduro literally within a day or

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<v Speaker 2>two of his being grabbed over the weekend. And what

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<v Speaker 2>policies China is pursuing, what aid it may be giving

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<v Speaker 2>to what remains of the Maduro government. What Russia and

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<v Speaker 2>Cuba and Iran are doing, we don't know, But I

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<v Speaker 2>don't I don't think they're just going to withdraw quietly

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<v Speaker 2>from the scene.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, you know, as we consider what many are now

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<v Speaker 1>referring to as the Dunroe doctrine, John Bolton, I wonder

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<v Speaker 1>who you think should worry more right now, Greenland or Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's it's I think I think Iran should be

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<v Speaker 2>more worried, given the protests which continue to grow all

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<v Speaker 2>across Iran, not just in Tehran. This regime in Tehran

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<v Speaker 2>is very weak, UH, and I think the levels of

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<v Speaker 2>discontent in the country have never been higher.

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<v Speaker 4>UH.

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<v Speaker 2>And the world would be a lot safer if the

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<v Speaker 2>regime of the Iatolas fell and you could get some

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<v Speaker 2>kind of alternative, hopefully free government in Iran. I think

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<v Speaker 2>what Trump says about Greenland and his interest in taking

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<v Speaker 2>control of Greenland very harmful to the NATO Alliance. You know, Greenland,

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<v Speaker 2>part of Denmark, is a NATO ally. Denmark has been

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<v Speaker 2>an ally of the United States for years, and you

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<v Speaker 2>have advisors to the President saying on national television that

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<v Speaker 2>Denmark's claim to the island is illegitimate and nobody will

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<v Speaker 2>oppose American force if we decide to use it. If

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<v Speaker 2>we did, it would destroy the NATO Alliance. But even

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<v Speaker 2>this chatter is irresponsible. Isn't taking into account the real

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<v Speaker 2>threats we face in the United States. We have a

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<v Speaker 2>legitimate security interest in Greenland. So does the entire NATO Alliance.

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<v Speaker 2>And if we just took this out of the spotlight

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<v Speaker 2>and work cooperatively together, I think we could ensure greater security,

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<v Speaker 2>not just for Greenland, but for the entire alliance. All Right.

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<v Speaker 4>John Bolton, former National Security advisor in President Trump's first term,

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<v Speaker 4>former US Ambassador to the United Nations and founder of

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<v Speaker 4>the Foundation for American Security and Freedom. Ambassador Bolton, thanks

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<v Speaker 4>so much for joining us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.