1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: John Bolton, I'm sure has some ideas about this though, 2 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: and it's a great pleasure to have the former National 3 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: Security advisor with us from President Trump's first term. Former 4 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,039 Speaker 1: US Ambassador to the United Nations and founder of the 5 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: Foundation for American Security and Freedom. John Bolton, Welcome back 6 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I know you have strong 7 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: feelings about this, and you've been around the block when 8 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: it comes to Venezuela in the first term. Can I 9 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: just start by asking you if you think the administration 10 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: acted correctly last weekend. 11 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 2: Well, I think it was the right thing to do 12 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 2: to begin the process of getting the Maduro regime out 13 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 2: of power and turning the government of Venezuela back over 14 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 2: to the people. There's no doubt that in twenty twenty four, 15 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 2: as in twenty eighteen, Maduro's stole the election, the opposition 16 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 2: had won legitimately and really are the legitimate government of Venezuela. 17 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 2: But I think we've removed Maduro, but the regime is 18 00:00:56,440 --> 00:01:00,319 Speaker 2: still there. There's no regime change at this point. Very 19 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 2: concerned that the way the president attacked Maria Corrina Machado, 20 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: the leader of the opposition, said she didn't have respect 21 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 2: in the country. Really the opposition wasn't up to governing 22 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 2: and turning to the likes of Delsi Rodriguez and really 23 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 2: Maduro's henchmen and hench women who are still there and 24 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 2: believing they're going to be a transition. It puts us 25 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 2: in a very difficult position. I'm worried that we've removed 26 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 2: the face of the regime, but not the regime itself. 27 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, Well, to that end, I know that you 28 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: had concerns about Maduro in the president's first term, and 29 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: we did a little bit of digging on this. Having 30 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: had sat down with Maduro, my colleague Eric Shatzker in 31 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one traveled to Caracas to talk to him 32 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 1: about global politics, and Maduro said at the time he 33 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: was in talks with the first Trump administration with you, 34 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: John Bolton, around a meeting at the UN General Assembly 35 00:01:56,840 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen. Maduro specifically implicated you as having canceled 36 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: that meeting. Listen to what he told us in twenty 37 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: twenty one. 38 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 3: I was about to personally meet him on September twenty eighteen, 39 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 3: was President Donald Trump. When I went to the UN 40 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 3: General Assembly in New York. We got a call from 41 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 3: the White House. But we knew about John Bolton's pressure 42 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,239 Speaker 3: and that of other people around Donald Trump to prevent 43 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 3: his attempt to meet me. If we had met, it 44 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 3: had been a different story. 45 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 1: Today, John Bolton, Is that true And to what extent, 46 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: if so, did that moment inform Donald Trump's views on 47 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: Venezuela today? 48 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 2: Well, I wish it were true. I wish I wish 49 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 2: I could stop meetings like that that easily. But he's 50 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 2: making that up. But it's a good story. So if 51 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 2: he wants to believe it, let him tell that to 52 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 2: the Court. 53 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 4: And Master Bolton. If we're looking at what is going 54 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 4: to happen next here, there's a lot of different messaging, 55 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 4: a lot of different rhetoric. We hear from President Trump 56 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 4: that the US is going to run, But if we 57 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 4: look at what other advisors are saying, we keep hearing 58 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 4: the idea that there's a lot of leverage points here 59 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 4: by the US, the embargo on oil, the military armada 60 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 4: poised still potentially pointing at Venezuela. Do you think that 61 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 4: the US is enough leverage to make change in Venezuela 62 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 4: from Afar through these kind of pressure points. 63 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 2: Well, I'd like to know what the plan is. If 64 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 2: that's what they think they're going to do, I'd be 65 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 2: the happiest person around if the rest of the Maduro 66 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 2: regime collapse tomorrow. But when you hear from the administration 67 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 2: the usual anonymous sources that they think they can work 68 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 2: with del Rodriguez to transition to something, I don't know 69 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 2: what the something is, And that the Venezuelan oil industry 70 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 2: is just going to emerge from the ashes and suddenly 71 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 2: be a big producer again. I think people are dreaming. 72 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 2: I think this is a very difficult and dangerous situation. 73 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: I think that the administration has acted in a ad hoc, 74 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 2: day to day fashion that doesn't guarantee failure. But let's 75 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 2: be clear. If the objective is to turn Venezuela into 76 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 2: a society where it's people actually govern it, and maybe 77 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,359 Speaker 2: that's not Trump's intention, but if that is, they're a 78 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 2: long way from it. And anybody who thinks the Venezuelan 79 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 2: oil industry is going to emerge from the ashes in 80 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:24,599 Speaker 2: a matter of weeks or months or even a couple 81 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 2: of years doesn't know how bad the situation is. 82 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 4: So then what is it going to take to help 83 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 4: fuel that turnaround because we have reporting, As we mentioned 84 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 4: at the top of the show, people familiar telling Bloomberg 85 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 4: News that part of why this White House thinks that 86 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 4: it can work with Delsea Rodriguez is because she could 87 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 4: serve as that bridge between the government and the private sector. 88 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 4: Because it seems like there has to be such an 89 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 4: emphasis on potential investment and rebuilding the infrastructure in order 90 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 4: for Venezuela to get on sound economic footing. 91 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 2: Well, I don't know what they base that on, and 92 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 2: I'd like to know. So what CEO of what major 93 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 2: American oil company is just getting all of his top 94 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 2: advisors together to get on a plane to go to 95 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 2: Caracas and put billions and billions of capital expenditures into Venezuela. 96 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 2: The political situation is unstable. By the way, the price 97 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 2: of oil is still at fifty five to sixty dollars 98 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:23,799 Speaker 2: a barrel. I'm not sure anybody thinks that more capital investment, 99 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 2: more drilling, more oil on the market is going to 100 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 2: benefit the oil companies at this point. I think there's 101 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 2: a lot of hot air out there about what's going on, 102 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 2: and that's dangerous because if you're planning is not based 103 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 2: on reality, when reality finally strikes you have no plan 104 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 2: B to back up to. 105 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 1: You mentioned Maria Karina Machado. She turned up on Fox 106 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: News last evening, of all places, on the Hannity Program, 107 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 1: presumably to get the attention of Donald Trump. Here's what 108 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: she said. 109 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 5: I'm planning to go back to Venezuela as soon as possible, 110 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 5: as I've always seen Sean every day make a decision 111 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 5: where I am more useful for a cost. That's why 112 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 5: I stayed in hiding for over sixteen months, and that's 113 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 5: why I decided to go out, because I believed that 114 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 5: at this moment I'm more useful to our costs being 115 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 5: able to speak out from where I am right now. 116 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,840 Speaker 5: But I'm planning to go as soon as fossil back home. 117 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:24,359 Speaker 1: She's talking about sharing her Nobel Peace Prize somehow with 118 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: Donald Trump. Could she be a partner or has the 119 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 1: administration turned away from her permanently. 120 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 2: Well, I think they damaged her and the opposition very 121 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 2: badly on Saturday. I think the opposition just ordinary people 122 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 2: inside Venezuela. I wonder what it means when the US 123 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 2: doesn't trust its leadership. Now, maybe she can work her 124 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 2: way back into his good graces. My recommendation would be 125 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 2: giving the Nobel Peace Prize medal that you get. The 126 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 2: Nobel Foundation can make another one just for you, but 127 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,599 Speaker 2: give it to Trump otherwise you know what he's going 128 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 2: to do. Theodore Roosevelt won the Nobel Peace Prize for 129 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 2: me war between Russia and Japan during his term as president, 130 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 2: and his Nobel Prize hangs on the wall of the 131 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 2: Roosevelt Room and the White House. I've been worried recently 132 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 2: Trump's just going to take it off the wall so 133 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 2: he can have it for himself. So Missus Mashadow gives 134 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: him hers. Maybe that'll take care of that. 135 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 4: Wow. We also want to talk about potential ripple effects here, 136 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 4: what could come next when it comes to other countries. 137 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 4: And I'm actually particularly interested about the potential impacts for China. 138 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 4: Of course, a huge importer of Venezuelan crude. But China's 139 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 4: made a lot of significant inroads when it comes to 140 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 4: Latin America, signing on signatories to its Bell and Rode 141 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 4: infrastructure initiatives. Could this hurt Beijing's efforts to make those 142 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 4: inroads in Latin America? How is this changing the calculus 143 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 4: in terms of the US Beijing competition. 144 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: Well, I think the most important American strategic interest in 145 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 2: Venezuela is the increasing influence of malign foreign powers that 146 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 2: don't have the best interest of the United States at heart. 147 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 2: That certainly starts with Russia and Cuba. That was the 148 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: main problem back in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. But 149 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 2: Iran and China are big players on the sea now, 150 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 2: and as you say, China has an enormous concern with 151 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 2: Venezuela's oil reserves and its production. The Chinese look for 152 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 2: oil wherever they can find it. They're an energy poor 153 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 2: country whose economy depends on getting these foreign sources, and 154 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,959 Speaker 2: by most estimates, including the estimates of the US government, 155 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 2: Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, more 156 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 2: even than Saudi Arabia, and yet it produces an insignificant 157 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 2: amount of oil. Of that oil it produces, China buys 158 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 2: about eighty percent of the production, according to the most 159 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 2: recent statistics. So I don't think Beijing is going to 160 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 2: sit idly by while a new government comes in that 161 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 2: may be more hospitable to American investment and possibly exclude 162 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 2: China from from the Venezuelan reserve. So what China is 163 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 2: doing behind the scenes, we don't know. There were high 164 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:12,079 Speaker 2: level Chinese meeting with Maduro literally within a day or 165 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 2: two of his being grabbed over the weekend. And what 166 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:20,080 Speaker 2: policies China is pursuing, what aid it may be giving 167 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 2: to what remains of the Maduro government. What Russia and 168 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 2: Cuba and Iran are doing, we don't know, But I 169 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 2: don't I don't think they're just going to withdraw quietly 170 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 2: from the scene. 171 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 1: Well, you know, as we consider what many are now 172 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 1: referring to as the Dunroe doctrine, John Bolton, I wonder 173 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: who you think should worry more right now, Greenland or Iran. 174 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 2: Well, it's it's I think I think Iran should be 175 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 2: more worried, given the protests which continue to grow all 176 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 2: across Iran, not just in Tehran. This regime in Tehran 177 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 2: is very weak, UH, and I think the levels of 178 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 2: discontent in the country have never been higher. 179 00:09:57,840 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 4: UH. 180 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 2: And the world would be a lot safer if the 181 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 2: regime of the Iatolas fell and you could get some 182 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 2: kind of alternative, hopefully free government in Iran. I think 183 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 2: what Trump says about Greenland and his interest in taking 184 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 2: control of Greenland very harmful to the NATO Alliance. You know, Greenland, 185 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 2: part of Denmark, is a NATO ally. Denmark has been 186 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,439 Speaker 2: an ally of the United States for years, and you 187 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 2: have advisors to the President saying on national television that 188 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 2: Denmark's claim to the island is illegitimate and nobody will 189 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 2: oppose American force if we decide to use it. If 190 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,319 Speaker 2: we did, it would destroy the NATO Alliance. But even 191 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 2: this chatter is irresponsible. Isn't taking into account the real 192 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 2: threats we face in the United States. We have a 193 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:55,679 Speaker 2: legitimate security interest in Greenland. So does the entire NATO Alliance. 194 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:58,119 Speaker 2: And if we just took this out of the spotlight 195 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 2: and work cooperatively together, I think we could ensure greater security, 196 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 2: not just for Greenland, but for the entire alliance. All Right. 197 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 4: John Bolton, former National Security advisor in President Trump's first term, 198 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:15,959 Speaker 4: former US Ambassador to the United Nations and founder of 199 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 4: the Foundation for American Security and Freedom. Ambassador Bolton, thanks 200 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 4: so much for joining us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.