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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: When do we have crystal Indeed, we do less of

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Speaker 1: big stories breaking this morning. We have a deep dive

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Speaker 1: for you into the housing market. A lot going on

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Speaker 1: there in terms of housing costs and prices and rent

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Speaker 1: prices continuing to go upwards. So we will break all

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Speaker 1: of that down for you because the picture is a

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Speaker 1: little bit complex and a little bit nuanced. Also, an

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Speaker 1: update for you out of Puerto Rico where residents are

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Speaker 1: still without power and without water. This is what five

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Speaker 1: years after Hurricane Marie hit, and it seems like, you know,

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Speaker 1: very few of the upgrades that needed to be made

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Speaker 1: to protect Puerto Rico from another storm have actually been made,

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Speaker 1: even though the money has been there. So we are

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Speaker 1: going to take a look at what the hell is

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Speaker 1: going on on the ground. There also some eyebrow raising

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Speaker 1: comments from former President I've been that former president current

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Speaker 1: President Biden. In that sixteen minutes interview, he was asked

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Speaker 1: is he running again? And he would not answer, So

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Speaker 1: we will break that down. And also Gavin Newsom saying unequivocally, well,

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Speaker 1: his aids are leaking unequivocally that he will run if

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Speaker 1: Biden does not, So we'll break that down for you. Also,

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Speaker 1: some new details about twenty twenty two, Kamala Harris on

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Speaker 1: the road trying to rev up the young people. You

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Speaker 1: know how the young folks just love Kamala Harris. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure that's going to be a very effective strategy for

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Speaker 1: the Democrats. As well as a prominent journalist sounding the

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Speaker 1: alarm bells about a potential civil war. We'll break all

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Speaker 1: of that down for you. We also have a big

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Speaker 1: picture look at the midterms. There's some new data out

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Speaker 1: that has some warning signs for Democrats. We've had a

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Speaker 1: lot of numbers that have been pretty positive for Democrats recently,

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Speaker 1: but Republicans have actually been turning out at higher rates

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Speaker 1: in the primaries. Is that indicative of the broader trend

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Speaker 1: for the midterms. We will ask our friend j Miles

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Speaker 1: Coleman about that before we get to any of that. Though,

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Speaker 1: Live show, Live show, I go put it up there

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Speaker 1: on the screen, guys, Chicago, We're coming the VIC Theater.

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Speaker 1: We're going to be there on October fifteenth, so go

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Speaker 1: ahead and buy your tickets. Link is right there down

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Speaker 1: in the description. We put a little teaser out on Atlanta,

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Speaker 1: just a little preview for everybody. We are going to

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Speaker 1: be sending out the live show for our premium subscribers

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Speaker 1: that will be able to watch the entire thing tomorrow

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday. We might put a few clips out there

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Speaker 1: so everybody can get a little bit of a taste.

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Speaker 1: So just so you'll guys know, that's exactly how we

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Speaker 1: run things. You get to be able to see it,

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Speaker 1: So sign up a premium if you actually want to

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Speaker 1: watch the full thing, watch a couple of eclips, and

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Speaker 1: if you like what you see, come and see us

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Speaker 1: in Chicago and beyond. As we said in Chicago though,

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Speaker 1: that is going to be the flagship Midwest show, So

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Speaker 1: if you're in the area, I highly recommend that you

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Speaker 1: come out in the region. Second is Counterpoints. We are

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Speaker 1: so excited to have Counterpoints once again on Friday. We've

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Speaker 1: got the discount going on right now, so ten percent

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Speaker 1: off on our annual subscriptions just to be able to

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Speaker 1: help fund the expansion of Counterpoints, hiring the new person,

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Speaker 1: and so much more that we're doing over here at

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Speaker 1: breaking Points. Enough administrative, let's get to the show. Let's

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Speaker 1: get to the housing market in particular, and put this

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Speaker 1: first piece up on the screen, so so brand new

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Speaker 1: numbers underscoring just how expensive it is getting for people

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Speaker 1: to buy homes. Why because mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing

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Speaker 1: along with the Fed's actions. This tweet says the average

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Speaker 1: thirty year fixed mortgage rate jumps to six point four

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Speaker 1: to two percent. That is the highest reading since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and eight. Let's take a look at this next piece,

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Speaker 1: which is similar the average monthly mortgage payment in the

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Speaker 1: US has shot up thanks to the FED. This is

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Speaker 1: from our friend Joe Wisenthal. He says that might push

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Speaker 1: more people into renting. If I were a landlord, I

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Speaker 1: might be tempted to raise the rent even more. By

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Speaker 1: the way, when you look at these numbers, so the

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Speaker 1: monthly mortgage payment for someone who's buying a home is

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Speaker 1: now over two thousand dollars. That has more than doubled

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Speaker 1: since March twenty twenty. So just two years ago, less

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Speaker 1: than two years ago, if you were buying house, your

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Speaker 1: the average monthly mortgage payment for someone buying a home

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Speaker 1: was one thousand dollars. I was two thousand dollars. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that is insane. The escalation. Their calculations based on the

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Speaker 1: median existing home price, average thirty year mortgage rate and

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Speaker 1: assuming a twenty percent down payment. And at the same time,

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Speaker 1: you can see the way that you know, housing becoming

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Speaker 1: so expensive means that more people are forced to rent.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this next piece up on

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Speaker 1: the screen. Guess what rising rent prices are key inflation high.

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Speaker 1: So we covered this when we got the last inflation

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Speaker 1: numbers that it's significant part of why we continue to

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Speaker 1: see rising inflation numbers is because rents continue to escalate.

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Speaker 1: Shelter prices rose zero point seven percent in August. That

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Speaker 1: is the biggest monthly jump since ninety one, so huge

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Speaker 1: numbers there. One of the biggest drivers of inflation, they say,

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Speaker 1: has been higher rent prices. According to data from Zillow,

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Speaker 1: the typical US monthly rent was two ninety dollars in August.

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Speaker 1: That is up twelve point three percent from just a

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Speaker 1: year before. That is much higher than it was before

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Speaker 1: the pandemic. In February twenty twenty, the nation's average rent

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Speaker 1: was one thousand, six hundred and sixty dollars. So even

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Speaker 1: though big picture, in a majority of markets that are

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Speaker 1: being tracked now, these sort of like you know, housing price,

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Speaker 1: like the sticker price of houses is going down, the

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Speaker 1: costs are going up because mortgage interest rates are so

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Speaker 1: incredibly high. Also, we haven't seen that great of the

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Speaker 1: in these markets. Why because people who are in their

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Speaker 1: homes now they likely have a low mortgage interest rate,

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Speaker 1: so they don't want to move. They might sell it,

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Speaker 1: they don't want to sell. They don't want to move

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Speaker 1: because they know they're going to then get hit with

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Speaker 1: these high mortgage interest rate costs and that'll screw them over.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of people are holding onto their houses

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Speaker 1: even though they might in other conditions sell. That's limiting

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Speaker 1: the inventory that's available. So even though we have seen

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Speaker 1: some price decline, it's not like this huge crash in

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Speaker 1: the prices that makes it compensate for the fact that

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Speaker 1: mortgage interest rates are now so so high. Yeah, exactly. So,

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Speaker 1: once again, is to explain it. Whenever the housing market

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Speaker 1: is more inaccessible, even to higher bidders, people who would

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Speaker 1: have bought otherwise, they're going to rent. Whenever they rent,

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Speaker 1: that pushes out other customers down to a lower tier,

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Speaker 1: so they get lower quality housing roughly at the same price.

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Speaker 1: Because rents are rising and we have a housing squeeze

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Speaker 1: at the same time that we already have a major

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Speaker 1: housing shortage, what's happening is that the home builders themselves

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Speaker 1: are going to either delay construction or they're not going

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Speaker 1: to bring their full houses to market because they don't

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Speaker 1: want to sell in the middle of the downturn because

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Speaker 1: they can't recoup their investment and they know that it'd

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Speaker 1: be much better either to hold it. They can pause construction,

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Speaker 1: they can work on other projects and other things. So

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Speaker 1: that means that the available housing stock goes down, so

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Speaker 1: you almost have a squeeze of rental markets. And once

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Speaker 1: again you know it's the poor, the working class, no

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Speaker 1: frankly even the middle class at this point, who are

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Speaker 1: all basically renting. I mean, it's almost nearly impossible to

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Speaker 1: buy a house otherwise. High mortgage also makes it so

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Speaker 1: that buying is not at the same value proposition, even

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Speaker 1: if you do somehow miraculously have the cash in order

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Speaker 1: to save into buy a house. So it's a very

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Speaker 1: very bad situation all the way around. And finally, just

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Speaker 1: to bring it back to inflation, I mean, you could say,

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Speaker 1: like if rent right now is only up yzero point

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Speaker 1: five percent quote unquote over last month, here's the issue.

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Speaker 1: Because it went up so high in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 1: so many people are locked into these astronomically high rates,

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Speaker 1: and because the rate of rent has not gone down,

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Speaker 1: whenever they have to re signed, they still have to

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Speaker 1: resign at a very very high rate compared to previously.

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Speaker 1: So this is this really is all in the favor

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Speaker 1: of capital and the ownership class. Because the ownership class,

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Speaker 1: like if you're a landlord, you don't care if the

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Speaker 1: washing machine is broken. I recently heard a story somebody

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Speaker 1: had to rent a house and had to bring their

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Speaker 1: own washer and dryer. Have you ever heard of such

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Speaker 1: a thing? No, and the and the dryer. The rent

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Speaker 1: was like, are you gonna do? Rented plenty of a

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Speaker 1: Breton washer dry certainly in New York City, very common.

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Speaker 1: This is bring your b yo washer New York. They're like,

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Speaker 1: you got to buy your own washer dryer, And they're like,

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Speaker 1: are you serious. And it's one of those things where

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Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, well I can find somebody else will

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Speaker 1: do it, so you know, they have all the power

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Speaker 1: and they don't have to fix anything. You also think

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Speaker 1: about the fact that, okay, so if prices come down,

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Speaker 1: and they have come down in the majority of markets,

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Speaker 1: housing prices have come down, but mortgage interest rates are

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Speaker 1: so high that it's not like your monthly payment is

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Speaker 1: going to be any lower. In fact, as we're seeing,

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Speaker 1: it's like double what it used to be. Who does

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Speaker 1: that ultimately benefit? Well, it benefits rich people who have cash.

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Speaker 1: They can just you know, pay a house in cash.

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Speaker 1: And it benefits primarily orman a capital because they can

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Speaker 1: take advantage of the lower prices and not have to

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Speaker 1: deal with the higher financing costs because again they have

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Speaker 1: the cash upfront. Those are the people who benefit most

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Speaker 1: from a market like this. So in a lot of ways,

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Speaker 1: the Fed's policy, which let's be clear, is really aimed

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Speaker 1: very directly at the housing market. I mean, Jerome Palell

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Speaker 1: said flat out, he said, I'd say, if you are

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Speaker 1: a home buyer somebody or a young person looking to

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Speaker 1: buy a home, you need a bit of a reset.

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Speaker 1: We need to get back to a place or supply

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Speaker 1: and demand or back together, and where inflation is down

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Speaker 1: low again and mortgage rates are low again. So he's

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Speaker 1: saying very directly, like we are targeting the housing market

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Speaker 1: with our actions. What they have created thus far as

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Speaker 1: the worst of all possible worlds. You still have low

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Speaker 1: inventory both because of the phenomenon I talked about home

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Speaker 1: buyers holding on to their houses because they don't want

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Speaker 1: to get hit with these high mortgage interest rates. You

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Speaker 1: have home builders not having new housing starts because their

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Speaker 1: financing rates are also higher. So you have a low inventory,

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Speaker 1: which is keeping prices relatively high. I mean, so we

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Speaker 1: are seeing somewhat of a downward turn in terms of that.

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Speaker 1: And then the costs are so high because of mortgage

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Speaker 1: interest rates, and then that trickles down to the rental market,

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Speaker 1: so people there are getting screwed as well. So it

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Speaker 1: really is a bad situation for everyone. And if you're

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Speaker 1: an existing homeowner, I mean, you're in a better position

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Speaker 1: than anybody else. But also because the prices are declining,

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Speaker 1: you're seeing your equity being eaten away. You're just a

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Speaker 1: bit You're just you're stuck, like you're not going anywhere.

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Speaker 1: I saw a story of somebody who had like a

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Speaker 1: one point five percent mortgage. I don't even know how

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Speaker 1: that exists, but apparently they grabbed it and got it

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Speaker 1: at the exact same time, and they're like, I'm not

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Speaker 1: going anywhere. They're like, they're like my house. They're like

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Speaker 1: every house around me could burn down and I could

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Speaker 1: still wouldn't move it because I have to stay here.

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Speaker 1: I have no other rong. I've never achieved this deal again, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're not wrong, not a bad problems. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: obviously this is somebody who I think this person I'm

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Speaker 1: talking about as a Washington Post calmness, So they're probably

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Speaker 1: fine life. But the point being that that's they're like

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Speaker 1: behavioral incentives are real. The mark it is now constructed

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Speaker 1: such that rent is probably either going to rise for

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Speaker 1: the foreseeable future if rates don't come down. Yes, it's

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Speaker 1: nice that the sticker price on the home goes down.

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Speaker 1: It's bad that the mortgage rate goes up, and that

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Speaker 1: generally without any more access to capital for normal folks,

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Speaker 1: that means that you're still even more out of the

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Speaker 1: league whenever you're trying to buy a house. Yeah, I really,

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Speaker 1: you know, wanted to do this segment with the people

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Speaker 1: in Mind who say overwhelmingly they're actually rooting for a

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Speaker 1: housing crash because they see the way that prices have

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Speaker 1: just escalated like crazy, and the way that they've been

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Speaker 1: priced down in the market of how insane it's been,

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Speaker 1: where it's like, oh, I have to have, you know,

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Speaker 1: eighty percent cash down in order to even compete in

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Speaker 1: this market. And we were covering those stories of we're

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Speaker 1: that house here just it was unlivable. I mean, it

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Speaker 1: was a total in shambles, and it still sparked this

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Speaker 1: bidding war of dimmer bro house for a million bucks

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Speaker 1: it's only a million dollars and had some insane bidding

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Speaker 1: word of like eighty six peel or whatever. There's one

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Speaker 1: in Virginia that there's one in Virginia that had squatters

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Speaker 1: inside of it. They're like squat sold as is squatters

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Speaker 1: and squatters include. You have to deal with it, like yeah.

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Speaker 1: They're like, You're like, we haven't resolved this, so I

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Speaker 1: am and somebody bought it. I understand people who are

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Speaker 1: looking at the housing market and saying like, crash, baby, crash,

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Speaker 1: because I want at some point in my life to

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Speaker 1: be able to be a homeowner, especially when that is

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Speaker 1: the most like critical dividing class dividing line at this

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Speaker 1: point in this country is like people who are asset

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Speaker 1: owners and people who aren't, and homes are obviously the

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Speaker 1: primary asset that most like ordinary Americans own. I just

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Speaker 1: want to say, it doesn't look like we're headed in

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Speaker 1: that direction. I mean, even as prices do come down somewhat,

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Speaker 1: it is not nearly enough to make up for the

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Speaker 1: increase and mortgage interest cost. Fortune had a good piece

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Speaker 1: sort of breaking down how this will I'll go the

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Speaker 1: different phases they say of the housing market downturn. Let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and put this up on the screen. So

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Speaker 1: they say they have we now have clear evidence the

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Speaker 1: housing market downturn has moved beyond the first stage, which

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Speaker 1: is a drop in housing activity that's like people buying homes,

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Speaker 1: and into the second stage, which is falling home prices.

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Speaker 1: So they say that home price correction is spreading. This

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Speaker 1: is what I was talking about. Out of one hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty eight regional housing markets that are tracked by

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Speaker 1: some real estate consulting firm, ninety eight out of one

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Speaker 1: hundred and forty eight have seen home values fall. Only

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Speaker 1: fifty markets remain at their peak now to give you

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Speaker 1: a sense of how much they've fallen, and that it's

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Speaker 1: nowhere near the home price decline that we saw back

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Speaker 1: in the housing crash in two thousand and eight. So

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Speaker 1: at that time we saw a peak to trough US

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Speaker 1: home price decline of twenty seven percent. Right now they're

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Speaker 1: estimating that significantly overvalued housing markets, so places like San

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Speaker 1: Francisco that have been just completely insane, they might see

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Speaker 1: a drop in the five to ten percent range. So

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Speaker 1: nowhere close to the massive drops we saw during the

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Speaker 1: housing crisis. Not that the housing crisis was ultimately good

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Speaker 1: for anyone, was another instance where it was great for

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Speaker 1: permanent capital who bought up all these distressed properties and

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Speaker 1: now are making money hand over fist on them. They

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Speaker 1: also say that the housing downturn, and this is very

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Speaker 1: intentional from the FED, will soon spread beyond housing because

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Speaker 1: you've got massive declines in home sales, both new home

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Speaker 1: sales and existing home sales. They've fallen by twenty by

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Speaker 1: thirty percent in terms of new home sales, twenty percent

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Speaker 1: in terms of existing home sales. You've got all these

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Speaker 1: homebuilders and places like Zillow and open door whatever struggling

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Speaker 1: financially and so as that as home shoppers put a

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Speaker 1: pause on their searches. That means you see decreased demand

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Speaker 1: for all sorts of other things. I mean, think of

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Speaker 1: all the inputs that go into a house, but washer

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Speaker 1: and dryer, like you're talking of the refrigers, the appliance,

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Speaker 1: is lumber, everything that goes into a house. You see

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Speaker 1: a decline in demand for those things. So that's why

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Speaker 1: when there's a housing market downturn, it spreads around the economy.

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Speaker 1: Now again, that's actually what the FED is hoping for

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Speaker 1: because this is apparently the only way that our political

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Speaker 1: class can figure out how to deal with the rising inflation.

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Speaker 1: Is like, let's screw regular people over and make it

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Speaker 1: so that they're able to purchase less things. So that

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Speaker 1: will be the next phase is basically the housing market

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Speaker 1: downturn spreads to other sectors of the market. And then

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Speaker 1: you've also got some details here. Let's put this last

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Speaker 1: piece up on the screen of some of the housing

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Speaker 1: sort of companies, housing adjacent or affiliated companies that are

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Speaker 1: really struggling in this market. This home flipper company called

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Speaker 1: open Door, which I actually never really heard of, but

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Speaker 1: their whole idea was like facilitating home flipping. They're having

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Speaker 1: big problems. They lost money on forty two percent of

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Speaker 1: their August resales. They've seen median home prices because they've declined.

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Speaker 1: That's really screwed them over. But instead of canceling contracts,

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Speaker 1: they decided to make good on offers they'd already put

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Speaker 1: out there. So they have seen a huge hit and

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Speaker 1: they're not alone in terms of other companies that are

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Speaker 1: in the home buying and selling business. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: it's important. I mean, really, what's being underscored on all

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Speaker 1: of this is just how precarious all of the market is,

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Speaker 1: and there's a lot of downstream effects. So I'm glad

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Speaker 1: that you put it the way you did, which is that, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you may wish for a housing collapse, but there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of other stuff going on. Yeah, let's all just

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Speaker 1: be very mindful about what's happening. Yeah, Unfortunately, it's not

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Speaker 1: likely to benefit those people are just hoping to get

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Speaker 1: their foot in the doorknoe unintended. Okay. The other piece here,

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Speaker 1: which we've already referenced, is what the FED is going

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Speaker 1: to do and what they already have done. Ken Klippenstein

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Speaker 1: has really been on top of sort of tracking some

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Speaker 1: of the research about what the Fed's actions may ultimately,

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Speaker 1: you know, what may ultimately happen with them. Let's go

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Speaker 1: ahead and put this up on the screen. So a

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Speaker 1: new World Bank paper warns of a global recession if

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Speaker 1: central banks continue to jack up interest rates, as the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve seems poised to do. So when you dig

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Speaker 1: into this, what they're pointing out is the fact that

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Speaker 1: almost unpressed and very unusual historic situation is unfolding in

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Speaker 1: which it's not just our country that is having central

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Speaker 1: bank hiking interest rates. This is happening in almost every

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Speaker 1: nation around the world. This is really a global phenomenon.

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Speaker 1: So you have everybody around the world tightening the screws

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Speaker 1: of monetary policy, it's hard to predict what that outcome

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Speaker 1: is actually going to be. So they model three different scenarios,

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Speaker 1: and in one of them, where everybody continues to tighten

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Speaker 1: the screws and tighten the screws, it leads to a

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Speaker 1: severe global recession, especially when you consider the fact that

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of recession warning signs here by

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Speaker 1: some metrics. As we've discussed before, we're already in a recession,

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Speaker 1: and as we're about to discuss, you also have China

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Speaker 1: with significant financial difficulties because of their COVID zero policy,

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Speaker 1: because they have sort of the music is stopped in

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Speaker 1: terms of the housing market there. That has been a

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Speaker 1: huge boon to their economy. So we'll talk a little

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Speaker 1: bit more about that. But the fact that you have

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Speaker 1: the US and China as these big weights in terms

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Speaker 1: of the global economic system means that you could have

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Speaker 1: a really, really ugly situation. Let me just read a

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Speaker 1: tiny bit from this report. So they have a quote

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Speaker 1: here from one person who says the odds of recession

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Speaker 1: in Europe, the US, and China are significant and increasing.

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Speaker 1: A collapse in one region will raise the odds of

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Speaker 1: collapse and the others the risk of a global recession

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Speaker 1: trifecta arising by the day. They also say the global

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Speaker 1: economy is in the midst of one of the most

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Speaker 1: internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening up

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Speaker 1: the past five decades. So that's what I was just saying.

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Speaker 1: The fact that all of these countries are pairing back

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Speaker 1: spending and also hiking interest rates at their central bank,

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Speaker 1: that means you have this global phenomenon of monetary and

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Speaker 1: fiscal policy tightening. They go on to say these policy

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Speaker 1: actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually

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Speaker 1: compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in

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Speaker 1: tightening financial conditions and steepening the growth slow down. This

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Speaker 1: synchronous policy tightening contrast with the policy to adopted around

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Speaker 1: the nineteen seventy five global recession, but is similar to

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Speaker 1: those implemented ahead of the nineteen eighty two recession. So

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Speaker 1: that's what they really say is unusual right now, is

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Speaker 1: that everybody is sort of acting in concert here, and

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Speaker 1: it's hard to say what that ultimately is going to mean. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, with the most globalized economy in the history

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Speaker 1: of the world. Obviously, you know, it happens every single year.

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Speaker 1: And we had a global recession in the nineteen hundred,

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Speaker 1: so early and almost one hundred years ago. So the

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Speaker 1: idea that we can't have contagion cross world markets has

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Speaker 1: already been dispelled several times over now. We already have

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Speaker 1: economic precarity in China. We have economic precarity and geopolitical

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Speaker 1: instability in Europe. I was just reading a piece yesterday.

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Speaker 1: European factories all across the content are going dark because

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Speaker 1: they simply cannot afford the energy bills. What does that mean?

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Speaker 1: Europe is a you know, hub of manufacturing, especially high

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Speaker 1: tech manufacturing. Germany, especially their trade surpluses relied on their

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Speaker 1: manufacturing powerhouse. Well, what happens, what we've already seen, We've

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Speaker 1: had a trade deficit in the first time in modern

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Speaker 1: German history. What does that mean? Because that backstops the

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Speaker 1: euro their financial system, the entire continent. O's loans like

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Speaker 1: this very complex trading scheme which is basically a German

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Speaker 1: trading house like backed up by the other nations in Europe.

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Speaker 1: What exactly does it mean? Whenever you have prolonged actual

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Speaker 1: manufacturing recession and high energy prices the UK. Obviously, things

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Speaker 1: over there are disaster, there are energy inflation, food crisis.

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Speaker 1: They're literally an island, as we've found out several times

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Speaker 1: in history. Japan I was just reading this morning, Japan

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Speaker 1: has forecast to have one of the coldest winters in

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Speaker 1: modern history. That is going to mean that they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to jack up LNG prices to sky high because

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Speaker 1: they're Japan. Also, why did we start a war? Why

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Speaker 1: did they start a war with US in World War two?

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Speaker 1: Because they didn't have oil and they don't have any

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Speaker 1: natural resources, so they need to buy a ton of

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Speaker 1: LNG in order to heat their homes, which means then

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Speaker 1: what India recently had to pay double the price in

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Speaker 1: LNG for the first time on modern markets because they

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Speaker 1: needed it an emergency backstop to them to their grid.

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Speaker 1: So these are all like the downstream effects, which is

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Speaker 1: that India Japan. I mean, even India is a poor nation.

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Speaker 1: But you know, large economies that can afford it, they'll

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Speaker 1: be fine. There's many countries which can't afford it at all,

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Speaker 1: which means they're going to be burning coal wood. God forbid,

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Speaker 1: that's already happening in Africa and elsewhere, so that this

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Speaker 1: is downstream catastrophic, which everything is interconnected. We talked before

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Speaker 1: too about how our monetary policy has ripple effects around

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Speaker 1: the globe in terms of developing markets, and it makes

431
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 1: it more expensive for them to pay back their dollar

432
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:17,680
Speaker 1: denominated debts. So that's another sort of cascading ripple effect.

433
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, when you have everybody basically around

434
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:27,680
Speaker 1: the world tightening up, both lowering spending, increasing their interest

435
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,679
Speaker 1: rates at the Central Bank, we don't know what impact

436
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:32,439
Speaker 1: that is going to have, but the World Bank is

437
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 1: warning that it could lead to a global recession if

438
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 1: we continue tohead in this direction, So that's what they're

439
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 1: raising the alarms about. I got a book recommendation called

440
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 1: Lords of Finance, The Bankers Who Broke the World, is

441
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 1: written in December two thousand and nine, and its specifically

442
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,400
Speaker 1: a history. A monetary history is a depression. I can

443
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 1: never It's like Lick quat Ahmed I think and won

444
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 1: the Pulitzer Prize Wow that year. Yeah, I read it recently.

445
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 1: It's a fantastic book. It reminds a lot of what

446
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: I'm talking about comes from there. Excellent, right, okay, China peace,

447
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: all right, let's go ahead and put this up there

448
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 1: on the screen. You alluded to this, and of course

449
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 1: this is probably going to have the single biggest impact

450
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 1: on our economic future, not just us, but you know,

451
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 1: the entire economy, which is that right now, this is

452
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 1: written in Bloomberg. It's a fascinating history. Which is that China.

453
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 1: This is, according again to their analysis, is that going

454
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 1: through a financial crisis today, quote, I believe is much

455
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 1: more serious than even the global financial crisis in the

456
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 1: United States. So they talk specifically about how their housing

457
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:34,639
Speaker 1: market and other direct indicators are showing massive slowdown in China,

458
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 1: specifically because of housing quote, the economy is sputtering under

459
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 1: COVID lockdowns. The People's Bank of China has cut interest

460
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 1: rates as central bank worldwide increase them, giving investors even

461
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: more incentive to shift their money abroad. Together, these forces

462
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 1: have pushed the yuan down by eight percent against the

463
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: dollar this year, putting it on course for the most

464
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 1: biggest annual drop since nineteen ninety four. Here's what this

465
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: analyst who's predicting a bigger financial crisis says, quote, China

466
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 1: is going through that financial crisis for us, for for

467
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,440
Speaker 1: us the play, you know, he's talking about how to

468
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 1: make money is in currency, but he's talking about an

469
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:13,199
Speaker 1: imminent and possible Chinese currency collapse. The part of the

470
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 1: issue is that, as they actually point out and the

471
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: pushback is everybody's always colla saying they want is going

472
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 1: to collapse. Guys, this guy's been betting on the collapse

473
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: since twenty fourteen, right, so it's this time it's going

474
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 1: to pay off. So keep that in mind. I mean,

475
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 1: he could be one of these big short you know, geniuses,

476
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: or he could just be one of those people is

477
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,400
Speaker 1: always saying that China's going to collapse. But the underlying

478
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 1: dynamic he's discussing of the slowdown in housing is absolutely correct.

479
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: I weirdly have a reference to Evergrand in my monologue

480
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: which is about lab leak. But you know, the Evergrand

481
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 1: collapse was actually a catastrophic event and to have all

482
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 1: of these ripple effects where I remember before they even

483
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 1: stopped trading on the Hong Kong stock has changed and more.

484
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: You were seeing some real estate companies multi billion dollar

485
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 1: behemit's backed by the CCP declined by seventy five eighty

486
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 1: percent in val you like overnight, and that explodes like bonds,

487
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: it explodes the ability of people because remember, you know,

488
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 1: if we take it back to that quote unquote crisis,

489
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 1: people had put down cash and we're waiting for their apartments.

490
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 1: And this is like a high status symbol and Chinese society.

491
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 1: So the ripple effects where that there were riots, people

492
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 1: were upset, and then you combine that with zero COVID

493
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 1: and dramatically lower economic activity, things are a powder keg

494
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 1: right now in China domestically there you know, I've read

495
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 1: a report even in western China, like in the Wigers,

496
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: and you know, obviously they're already being horrifically treated right now.

497
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 1: I mean their level of lockdown is like make Shanghai

498
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 1: look like a you know, like a like a vacation,

499
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 1: right and so that's the whole country, no matter where

500
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 1: the flare up happens or not. And they're also not

501
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 1: betting on vaccination at all. They are continuing to bet

502
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 1: on zero COVID, which is insanity in the age especially

503
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: and it was always stupid, but in the age of Omicron,

504
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: it's like especially stupid. Like orders of magnitude. Yeah, very

505
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: very true. That is very true. Yeah, I mean, just

506
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 1: to put some members. So what you're saying here about

507
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 1: the housing market, there was a forty percent drop in

508
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 1: home sales this year in China, forty percent. You have

509
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 1: people who are demanding their money back over unfinished projects.

510
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,679
Speaker 1: You have a massive pullback. Now, some of this was

511
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 1: actually orchestrated by the government because they saw, Okay, we

512
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 1: can't continue to have this housing market escalate and escalate

513
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: and escalate and escalate. We have to pair things back

514
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: at some point. But can they navigate that in a

515
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: way that doesn't trigger a gigantic crash that is a

516
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: major you know, that's a huge question. And so you

517
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 1: have the housing market massive pullback, You have those COVID

518
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 1: zero policies, and you also have had extreme heat waves

519
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: that have really impact their crop yields and also their

520
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 1: power supplies. So they're being hit from all directions right now.

521
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: To give you some war number numbers about the housing market,

522
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: this was from a different article that I was reading.

523
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 1: They were saying that, you know, the housing market is

524
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 1: really driven growth in China for the past two decades.

525
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 1: The Chinese housing market is the largest asset class in

526
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 1: the world. So that gives you a sense of how

527
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 1: central and how critical this is to the Chinese economy,

528
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 1: not to mention the global economy. Now, developers are going

529
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: bust after being deprived of easy credit. Prices are falling,

530
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 1: homeowners are refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished homes. The

531
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 1: slump and properties being sold in construction is crippling local governments.

532
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 1: This is a really important part because they rely on

533
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 1: land sales for income. So the way they fund local

534
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 1: governments fund themselves is by selling off land. Now they're

535
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: unable to do that, so they're going bankrupt and having

536
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: extreme financial issues. The other thing that they pointed to

537
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 1: in this articles they say that the next shoot to

538
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: drop for China could be falling external demand. So basically,

539
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 1: I mean these things all aid on each other. Right,

540
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: if we have a downturn here, if there's a downturn

541
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: in Europe, obviously, energy costs are high, so it's very

542
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 1: much expected that people will have less money to buy

543
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 1: cheap crap from China. They're'll be focused on like let

544
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 1: me pay my rent and let me have food on

545
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: the table, and let me not freeze to death. That's

546
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 1: a huge issue for the Chinese economy, which obviously depends

547
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 1: on being able to export their goods and make a

548
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 1: lot of money around the world. So that's the picture

549
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 1: as best as we can, you know, as best as

550
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: we can decipher it of the Chinese economy right now.

551
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 1: And again, obviously these things all very interconnected and have

552
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 1: a lot of feedback loops that can lead to you know,

553
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 1: global contagion essentially. Yeah, that's right. Okay, let's move on

554
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 1: to Puerto Rico. And this is one which we really

555
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: wanted to get to the bottom of, which is what

556
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: the hell is happening in on an island where five

557
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: years ago we watched the power grid completely fail and

558
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: then take nearly a year to be restored. It was

559
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 1: one of the biggest political stories there was, all these

560
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 1: allegations of neglect and more. And I think what we're

561
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: really learning after the strike of another hurricane te tragedy

562
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 1: on Puerto Rico where millions of people once again are

563
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: without power, is that this is a systemic story of

564
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: corruption at the very beginning. Though, let's just acknowledge the

565
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: latest damage that is happening right now in Puerto Ricos.

566
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: Put this up there on the screen, friend, Jeff Stein,

567
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 1: you know, pull this TikTok, which just shows you the

568
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 1: side by side analysis and just like how horrific the water,

569
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: the flooding, the absolute and damage is that it's on

570
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 1: the ground. Cars there that are floating in the literally

571
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: in the middle of the streets, so untold amounts of

572
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 1: damage to critical infrastructure, to roads. Once again, now you

573
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 1: know hurricane all that, we can put that aside as

574
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 1: a longtime event in the Atlantic and especially has gotten

575
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 1: worse in the last couple of years. But the question remains,

576
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: like this grid failed five years ago. It was one

577
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: of the biggest stories in the country. Congress appropriated up

578
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 1: to one hundred billion dollars in order to fix and rebuild.

579
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: And then five years later a hurricane strikes and the

580
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: whole grid is down and three million people are without

581
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: power again, So what the hell is happening here? Well,

582
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: and it's not just it reminds me, sorry, cut you off.

583
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: It reminds me of Jackson, where with the water where

584
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 1: you know we covered back when they had that winter

585
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: storm there was a massive water crisis and we're like,

586
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: oh my god, this is a disaster, Like we have

587
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: freaking fixed this water system and everybody knew is the

588
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: problem national media covered it for five seconds and then

589
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: nothing happened. It's the same thing they actually had in April,

590
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 1: there was a fire at a significant power generation plan

591
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: and again the you know, massive loss of electricity form

592
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 1: the majority of residents of this island without even having

593
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: a hurricane, and everyone goes, what the hell is going

594
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 1: on here? And still here we are a number of

595
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 1: months later, and listen, I mean, you can't only do

596
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: so much to prepare for a hurricane, but the fact

597
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: that everyone on the island was without power and it's

598
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: not just power too. When you lose electricity, it means

599
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: you also lose access to clean water because the pumps

600
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: and the water treatment facilities are also not operable. So

601
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: you have an overwhelming majority of residents on the island

602
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: who were also without water to drink. And you know,

603
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: this was a problem back after Maria too, where it

604
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 1: took close to it took a year before people got

605
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 1: all of these services restored, and even then you had

606
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: vast areas that you know, we're still on boil warnings

607
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 1: and all of this. So, I mean, you know, this

608
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: is a part of our country that often gets ignored

609
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 1: and it is abhorrent. What is being done to These

610
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: are American citizens. And so now here's the question, let's

611
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: really dig into it, like what's going on here? The

612
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: American Prospect wrote about this before this grid even fails.

613
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: Put us up there on the screen in August nineteenth,

614
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. Puerto Rico's electric grid is on again,

615
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 1: off again. Essentially, what they point to is that despite

616
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: the nearly ten billion dollars that FEMA has appropriated specifically

617
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 1: for the Puerto Rico electron grid, and as I alluded to,

618
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: the tens of billions of dollars the US Congress has

619
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: delivered to Puerto Rico that basically what has happened is

620
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 1: a colossal story of mismanagement, bureaucrap, and in bureaucratic incompetence.

621
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: And I'm just gonna go ahead and allege that there

622
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: is some corruption going on here, because Crystal, what has

623
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: happened is that FEMA appropriated this ten billion. The Puerto

624
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: Rico Power Authority basically lost all credibility after the shutdown

625
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: in Maria, and so they did what everybody always does

626
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: in this situation, let's privatize it. And by privatizing it,

627
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: they hired this firm like Luma Electrical Grid about I

628
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: think it was in twenty twenty one, in order to

629
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: run their power system. Turns out, Luma continues to charge

630
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: them very high market prices and has not been able

631
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 1: to deliver power consistently on and without rolling blackouts for

632
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 1: this entire period. There also has been standoffs with local

633
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: authorities where they refuse to turn over documents. This has

634
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: turned into a colossal story of incompetence, corruption, lack of oversight.

635
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: Clearly a hell of a lot of people are making

636
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: a ton of money off of this, and the people

637
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: of Puerto Rico, five years after Maria, before this hurricane

638
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: even hit, we're already experiencing massive rolling black blackouts, high prices,

639
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 1: unreliable power, unreliable grid, unreliable infrastructure. Right, And the crazy

640
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 1: thing is is that to date they have only spent

641
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: about nineteen percent of the twenty eight billion dollars in

642
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 1: funding that FEMA committed to the grid recovery, and in fact,

643
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: they have spent the last vast majority of their spending

644
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: on emergency relief like debris removing. Now, look, obviously debris

645
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: removal them all that is good, gotta have toime too.

646
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 1: I would just think that some sort of hardening of

647
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: the grid investment and all of that probably would have happened.

648
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: There's also been a delay here in Washington from the

649
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: Biden administration. Just so everybody knows, some ten billion dollars

650
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: in funding wasn't released until very recently. Biden's been in

651
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: power for almost two years, people, and so clearly there

652
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 1: has just been there's been massive incompetence on the island,

653
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 1: if there's been massive incompetence here in Washington. And I

654
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: think it's a media story too, which is that at

655
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: the time they're like, oh, Trump, you know all this.

656
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 1: And I'm not going to deny that Trump probably did

657
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: hold up funds Puerto Rico for some like heady, you

658
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: know reason, but this clearly just showed the fact that

659
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: it happened. Again, I'm like, this is a much bigger

660
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: sy seven. Yeah. Is that nothing to do with Donald Trump?

661
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: At this point, I'm like, this is years of corruption, mismanagement, neglect,

662
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 1: you know, just just insanity that millions of people are

663
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 1: paying the price for. Yes, that's exactly right. And I mean,

664
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: at this point we only have the broad outlines of

665
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 1: what went wrong here. We really need some investigative journalism

666
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 1: into to like TikTok of where were the fail points

667
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,239
Speaker 1: and what the hell happened where? Yeah, you only are

668
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 1: spending five billion out of the you know, ten billion billion,

669
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: Yeah that were appropriate? What like, why what happened here?

670
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 1: What was the hold up? Where were the failure points?

671
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 1: And then to your point about just how unconscionable this

672
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: whole situation is. So they've never had a grid now

673
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 1: since Maria that's reliable. It's been on again, off again blackouts.

674
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 1: You know this fire that I talked about back and

675
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 1: I think it was April that caused massive blackouts on

676
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 1: the island. Nevertheless, the price of electricity has increased seven

677
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: consecutive times this see here alone. So in spite of

678
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 1: the fact that the service is completely unreliable, you can't

679
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 1: depend on it. It's a disaster, still hiking up the

680
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: rates and putting the screws to the people on the island.

681
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it is a massive, massive failure.

682
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,359
Speaker 1: It has been overlooked by the media, and you know,

683
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: we wanted to shine a light on what these people

684
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 1: are going through right now with at the moment no

685
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: end in sight. And again, it's not just electricity which

686
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 1: is bad enough, but you're also talking about access to

687
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 1: clean water, and then you're talking about all of the

688
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,919
Speaker 1: spill on effects of what that means and the type

689
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 1: of illnesses that can spread when you don't have access

690
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: to clean water. So it is a true, true humanitarian

691
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 1: catastrophe going on in Puerto Rico, right, And what I

692
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 1: alluded to earlier is again the media they can't help themselves.

693
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 1: They can't just tell you about what's going on here.

694
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,280
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. New York Times.

695
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 1: They say the three reasons that Puerto Rico, what's the

696
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:53,240
Speaker 1: number one reason that they say the drump administration restricted

697
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,919
Speaker 1: aid funds. Once again, that may be true, but it's

698
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: been several years since he was president now, And actually

699
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,879
Speaker 1: FEMA's delays and bureaucratic and competence comes all the way

700
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: up until twenty twenty two. Crystal. I'm just reading, you know,

701
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,280
Speaker 1: government GAO reports to prepare for this segment from twenty

702
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 1: twenty one where they're again talking about the fact that

703
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,959
Speaker 1: they have this money, some of it hasn't been spent.

704
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,280
Speaker 1: It's not really being oversight, you know, from both from FEMA.

705
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,839
Speaker 1: Puerto Rico's kind of spending it however it wants. Weirdly enough,

706
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 1: is privatizing its power. Power rates are going up, blackouts

707
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 1: are continuing. The guy who's in charge of LUMA is

708
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 1: like being protected somehow and like some weird quasi legal scheme. This,

709
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,320
Speaker 1: by the way, does not even mention their debt obligations,

710
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 1: because the debt the Puerto Rico Authority or whatever is

711
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 1: like nine billion dollars of debt. Puerto Rico has all

712
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: these issues where they're not allowed to discharge their debt

713
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 1: because it's a territory and not a US state, which

714
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 1: is like a whole thing that involves bond traders and

715
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: some other stuff as well. Anyway, the point I'm making

716
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:55,280
Speaker 1: is this is like a colossal disaster that's been slow

717
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 1: moving and they just can't help themselves, like they always

718
00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: try to have to make it about Trump instead of

719
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 1: telling us, like, no, what's the fail point on Lumah,

720
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: who is this LUMA guy CEO? What's happening with this?

721
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,839
Speaker 1: Because we were trying to figure out yesterday like what

722
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 1: the hell is going on here? And so we're googling

723
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: and finding right, oh, the New York Times is the

724
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 1: right up of everything that went wrong, you know, because

725
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 1: they sort of contradict themselves immediately after saying like, well,

726
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 1: it's Trump's fault, and it's like, I don't doubt that,

727
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: especially immediately after Maria, no doubt that he was a

728
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 1: disaster jerk and all of that stuff. But then in

729
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,919
Speaker 1: the very next section they're like, well, they actually haven't

730
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: spent all of the money. So it's not that there

731
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 1: isn't enough money, but for some reason it hasn't been spent. Well,

732
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 1: what are those reasons? Are their projects not getting approved

733
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: by the government so that there's these like hold ups

734
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 1: and they're trying to go forward but it's just stuck

735
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 1: in a bureaucratic morass. Is that the issue is a corruption,

736
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 1: that's the issue, is like they don't tell you any

737
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 1: of that. I mean, they do point also to, you know,

738
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 1: the fact that the climate crisis means that you have

739
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 1: a wetter storms. But actually, weirdly, there is a prediction

740
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 1: that this would be like one of the worst hurricane

741
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 1: seasons in history. Yeah, I had said that before, you

742
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:02,479
Speaker 1: I don't know how much to put in these people,

743
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 1: And then eerily it's actually been one of the so

744
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 1: far mildest so far, which is kind of like actually

745
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 1: makes me a little bit like uneasy. But in any case,

746
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 1: there's clearly a lot more going on here. And the

747
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: best write up we could find was from the Prospect,

748
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 1: who are always doing incredible work, which you really support

749
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: them regardless of your ideological predisposition, because they actually tried

750
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 1: to dig into the details of what happened here, and

751
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 1: they were sounding the alarms in August saying that if

752
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 1: there is a hurricane that hits this island, which is

753
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 1: almost certainly going to happen during this hurricane season, they're

754
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 1: going to be screwed. Law and behold, it didn't take

755
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 1: a rocket scientist to predict that all of this was

756
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 1: going to happen. So I would love to see a

757
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 1: lot more digging into what exactly the chain of events

758
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 1: was here. How did they end up right back in

759
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 1: the same situation. Look, these are American citizens. You know,

760
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 1: you shouldn't tolerate some in Jacksonsissippi. We shouldn't tolerated in

761
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 1: a San Juan, Puerto Rico. It's just not acceptable. And

762
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: everybody was willing to say that, you know, whenever it

763
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: was Trump, and now you know, I mean, this really

764
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 1: is a this Remember the way that FEMA was scrutinized

765
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: and Trina and under Trump once again, I actually support that,

766
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 1: you know, in terms of looking into all these but

767
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,800
Speaker 1: you can't selectively apply The president needs to be getting

768
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 1: just as much pressure now as Trump did back then.

769
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 1: At the time they're like, oh, this is racism all

770
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 1: of that. It's like, well, you know, the same dynamic

771
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 1: is happening here, and these guys are like more focused

772
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: on the queen's funeral. I care about the queen's funeral too,

773
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: I don't, you know, But we got three million people

774
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: without power in San Juan like or in Puerto Rico like,

775
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 1: that's that's you know, colossal disaster, disaster American citizens. Absolutely, Okay,

776
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: human human crisis going on right there, and we'll stay

777
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 1: on top of it. Some potentially lighter fare here. We

778
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 1: have continued to cover some really interesting comments made by

779
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 1: President Biden in that sixty minutes interview. In particular, he

780
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 1: was asked whether he is actually going to run for

781
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 1: president again in twenty twenty four, and he did not

782
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 1: give a direct answer. Let's take a listen to that. Sure,

783
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 1: are you committed to running again or are there certain

784
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: conditions that have to be right. Look, if I were

785
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 1: to say to you I'm running again, all of a sudden,

786
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: the whole range of things come into play that I

787
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 1: have requirements I have to change and move and do

788
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: in terms of election, in terms of election laws, and

789
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: this much too early to make that kind of decision.

790
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 1: I am a great respector of fate, and so what

791
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 1: I'm doing is I'm doing my job. I'm going to

792
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: do that job and within the time frame that makes

793
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 1: sense after this next election cycle here going in the

794
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 1: next year, making judgment of what to do. So he

795
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: dodges the question there. I mean he's blaming election law. Yeah, Trump,

796
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 1: you know, re announced for reelection the day after he

797
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: won the president. Well, Trump doesn't give a shit about

798
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 1: election law for any other which, right, which is kind

799
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 1: of an issue for him as a moment, But it

800
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 1: is true that so you know, they not to get

801
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: into the nitty gritty of election law. But let me

802
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 1: go ahead lay it out for you. You know how

803
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: these candidates will form exploratory committees. Well, if you do that,

804
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:56,879
Speaker 1: you're allowed to do everything up to actually saying I

805
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: am running for president. That is like a you know,

806
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: legally significant act. And then you can no longer have

807
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 1: the exploratory committee, you actually have to file, right, So

808
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 1: that's kind of what he's alluding to here. Now, one

809
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 1: way to read it is he's just being, you know,

810
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: trying to avoid getting himself into legal trouble. The other

811
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:13,399
Speaker 1: way to read it is that he's trying to give

812
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: himself an out. Now, you guys know, because I've made

813
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 1: the case here before, I think Biden is going to run.

814
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 1: I think this man has wanted to be president his

815
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 1: entire life. There's no way now that he's got the

816
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 1: brass ring. It's brass ring or gold ring, brass anyway,

817
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 1: now that he's in the White House. Yes, but that

818
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 1: doesn't sound right because brass isn't his valuable right anyway. Whatever,

819
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: he's got the ring, and I can't imagine him just

820
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 1: being like, no, I'm gonna give it up. I'm gonna

821
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 1: walk away. So that's continues to be my view. However,

822
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:41,399
Speaker 1: you know, I talked to Brionna Joy Gray on Bad

823
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: Faith about this in case she and others would make

824
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: is okay, Then why is he like, why is he

825
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: saying stuff like this? Why isn't he just be more definitive?

826
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 1: Why is it that, you know, his some of the

827
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 1: Democrats that are relatively senior in house leadership, said Carolyn

828
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:58,400
Speaker 1: Maloney when she was running in the primer, was like,

829
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 1: it's my understanding he's not running again. Why is it that,

830
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: you know, Jerry Nadler wouldn't affirm his support. Why is

831
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,839
Speaker 1: it that you have these Democrats who seem to feel

832
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 1: it's kind of safe to deny him their support, where

833
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 1: you probably wouldn't have that situation if he really was

834
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 1: running again. So again, I don't really buy that case,

835
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 1: but that is the case that is being made in

836
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 1: that sort of the evidence if you believe that view

837
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:26,919
Speaker 1: that either I think usually the sort of thought here

838
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 1: isn't that he would step aside, but that because he's

839
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 1: a weak president with low approval ratings and not at

840
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 1: his best in you know, his older years, that he

841
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 1: would be pushed aside by the more powerful powers that

842
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 1: be in the same way that you know Obama pulled

843
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: the plug on Pete Boodhajes's presidential run, and so that

844
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,800
Speaker 1: there'd be some sort of like machinations behind the scene

845
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 1: that would force him out and give him some sort

846
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 1: of deal and put a Pete or whoever else is.

847
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 1: You never know with Biden, like is he in charge

848
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 1: or not? Some days he's lucid, he seems fine. The

849
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 1: other days he makes a comment about Taiwan and then

850
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 1: his quote unquote handlers at the White House like, actually, no,

851
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 1: that's not US policy, And you go hold on a second,

852
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 1: like who's in charge here? You think Trump would ever

853
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 1: tolerate him saying something and his White House saying that's

854
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 1: not what he meant. Never, I mean, it would never happen.

855
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 1: Same thing with it they tweet speaker itself. But it's

856
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,399
Speaker 1: true though, right with Biden, right they should be like, yeah,

857
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 1: his tie statement, he's the president of the United States,

858
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 1: he makes policy. They're like, no, that's not what he meant.

859
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,399
Speaker 1: Even Obama. Obama would never tolerate that either. So well,

860
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 1: with Biden, you never seem to know, like what exactly

861
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 1: is going on? Yeah, I think he's in charge when

862
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 1: he actually wants to be and happens to be like

863
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 1: lucid enough for the day. You know, some days he

864
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 1: seems like I've talked with friends. By the way, recently,

865
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 1: they cover him extensively at the at the White House,

866
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:45,360
Speaker 1: and what they say with Biden is like really interesting.

867
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 1: They're saying he's his own self for about five minutes,

868
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 1: Like he puts on his aviators and he thinks he's

869
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 1: thirty five years old again, and he's out there like

870
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 1: shaking hands. But he's got like five minutes in him.

871
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: He's just old. You know. He's one of those things

872
00:42:58,320 --> 00:42:59,959
Speaker 1: where he could keep it up. He can be scram

873
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:02,239
Speaker 1: and Joe for like very very limited periods of time,

874
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 1: then he has to go back to the lectern, open

875
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: his notes and just be Joe. Lately, I feel like

876
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 1: he has been he has had more papinist step. He's

877
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: been more consistently lucid, Like I mean this interview, this

878
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 1: was a lengthy, intensive interview, and yeah, I don't know

879
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 1: if he meant to say the thing about Taiwan or

880
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 1: what the hell happened there. He said it multiple times,

881
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 1: so he seems to like be really committed to this

882
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 1: line of discussion and committed to the policy. But he

883
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 1: did seem lucid throughout the interview. So I feel like lately,

884
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 1: because he's gotten more momentum, I don't know, that seems

885
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: to have restored him in some sort of fundamental way.

886
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 1: But putting all of that aside and all the sort

887
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: of conjecture and speculation about just how there he is.

888
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:50,399
Speaker 1: I just can't imagine that this man who has been

889
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 1: in Washington all of these years, this is everything he knows.

890
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: He's there doing the thing that he has always dreamed

891
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 1: and always wanted to do, that he's going to step aside.

892
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 1: I don't buy it. And then the other thing that

893
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 1: I don't buy is who is going to be Yeah,

894
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 1: is the approval ratings are low, but they're better than Kamala's.

895
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 1: They're better probably than Pete's. I mean, there is a

896
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 1: lot of power that comes with being the incumbent president.

897
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 1: Is much easier to win the presidency if you are

898
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,760
Speaker 1: already the president than if you are an outside challenger

899
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 1: trying to make the case fresh and to come in.

900
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 1: So I just think, ultimately, yes, there are some I

901
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 1: would not doubt that, just like during the Democratic primary,

902
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 1: when they are all these behind the scenes discussions about,

903
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 1: like him, maybe we can get Beto, maybe we can

904
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 1: get Pete, maybe we can get Kamala. At the end

905
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:41,720
Speaker 1: of the day, they all realized that the only person

906
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: who was left standing to you know, take out Bernie

907
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 1: was Biden. And I kind of think it's the same thing.

908
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: They may be wish casting donors might be talking, Pete

909
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 1: might be moving to Michigan and maneuvering. But the end

910
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 1: of the day, they're all going to realize, like we

911
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,879
Speaker 1: really got no other option, but sticking with this dude, Yeah,

912
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: I mean, put the next one up there on the screen.

913
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 1: Like Gavin Newsom apparently says he'll run for president if

914
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 1: Biden does it. But again, you know, like, do you

915
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 1: think Gavin Newsom is more popular than Joe Biden. No,

916
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:10,359
Speaker 1: I mean he might be more popular than Kamala, but

917
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 1: like this guy, given his handling of the pandemic, like

918
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 1: he's got no standing to run for president even you know,

919
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: even his recall, which he did looks like a vampire

920
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,839
Speaker 1: does look like our empire. But beyond that, I mean

921
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 1: even in his recall, remember whenever he did win, and

922
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: he won like semi close to what he got reelected on,

923
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:30,799
Speaker 1: but there were still some swings in the down ballot voting,

924
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 1: which was not so great for him, Like he didn't

925
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 1: hang on by nearly the he he was presented as

926
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,399
Speaker 1: a victor because people thought that, including myself, thought that

927
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 1: the recall might have been much closer than it was,

928
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 1: and he did win, you know, quite handily obviously, but

929
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,839
Speaker 1: that's still not like a bear. That's still not the

930
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 1: case for needing to run affirmatively as a national candidate.

931
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 1: Like no one can say that the state which more

932
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 1: people have left than any other in the country is

933
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 1: going so well under your leadership, saying that's a ludicrous

934
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 1: thing to run on. It's funny thinking back about that

935
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 1: recall now, because it's kind of a preview of the

936
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 1: politics we are facing down right at the moment. Because

937
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: what really, I don't want to say it saved him,

938
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 1: because I think he was going to win anyway, But

939
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 1: what really expanded his margins is that Texas had just

940
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 1: passed that really extreme abortion law, and he was saying, hey,

941
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,360
Speaker 1: you want that here in California, vote for the other dude,

942
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: And that seemed to really resonate and get Democrats off

943
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 1: their asses, because that was the problem. Is like the

944
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,440
Speaker 1: people who were opposed to him were very animated, and

945
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 1: the Democrats were kind of like, Eh, I mean, I

946
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 1: guess he's better than the other guy, but I don't

947
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 1: really know if it's worth showing up to vote for him, right,

948
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 1: That's what motivated Demos Democrats to come out. So this

949
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 1: is a side tangent, but a lot of echoes of

950
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 1: what's going on right now in our politics. I mean,

951
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: I do think that like Gavin Newsom Roun DeSantis, like

952
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 1: fake presidential primary that's going on right now is kind

953
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:02,280
Speaker 1: of hilarious because like running ads in each other's states,

954
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:05,800
Speaker 1: and like Nwsom challenged Desantus to a debate or something

955
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:10,319
Speaker 1: like that, and it's like, like, there's no way that

956
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: Newsom is actually going to run against Biden. Biden, in

957
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,240
Speaker 1: my view, is almost certainly going to run for president again.

958
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 1: So Okay, maybe you're looking at twenty twenty eight, that's fine.

959
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of cosplay and going on right

960
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:24,359
Speaker 1: now with the two of them, which I think is

961
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 1: sort of hilarious. And Yeah, the idea that he's this

962
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 1: like great talent or democratic savior, I think is ludicrous.

963
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 1: The guy has been, he's done. We've given him credit

964
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 1: here for a few things he's done recently on nuclear,

965
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 1: on the sectoral bargaining law, which he's sort of under

966
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,879
Speaker 1: pressure ultimately signs. There were a lot of other thing

967
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 1: areas where I have issues with him. He's clearly a

968
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 1: finger in the win politician, He's shifted his political kind

969
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 1: of ideology and positioning a number of times throughout his

970
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 1: career to respond to whatever the wins of the moment

971
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 1: actually were. And I think and ultimately people really sense

972
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 1: that he's one of those guys that really gives off

973
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 1: that vibe of like, this guy's just trying to be

974
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,839
Speaker 1: where he thinks he should be right now. I think

975
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: that's a very damaging quality for a politician, regardless of

976
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 1: what you think of like his ideology at the present

977
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 1: moment Chameleon, San Francisco, Mega Liiberal. Then he's like the

978
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:25,800
Speaker 1: billionaire guy. He was like, yeah, he's sucked up to

979
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 1: the like tech billionaire sector hardcore and then turned on them,

980
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 1: and now he's like the Hollywood guy. You know. I

981
00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 1: was trying to be position himself as like the you know,

982
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 1: big thinking progressive right now with like you know, the

983
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 1: EV policy and the sectoral bargaining, and there were some

984
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 1: other things that I'm forgetting about right now as well.

985
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 1: But these like big marquee sort of progressive wins, which

986
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 1: again I personally support. There are some other things that

987
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 1: he screwed up on, like blocking Medicare for all in

988
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 1: the state but he's clearly trying to position himself. I

989
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 1: just think he thinks a lot more of himself than

990
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 1: the American people will probably think of him. Yeah, I

991
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 1: think you're absolutely right, all right. Twenty twenty two. Yeah,

992
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: talk about that one. So, okay, this is kind of

993
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 1: funny to me. Let's go and put this up on

994
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 1: the screen. Axios has this breaking news. Vice President Harris

995
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:21,759
Speaker 1: is ramping up her midterm travel to focus on young voters.

996
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 1: Here's the lead to this story. She's trying to turn

997
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:27,400
Speaker 1: out young voters and voters of color for the midterms,

998
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 1: stopping this week in Wisconsin and South Carolina. But and

999
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 1: this is an important caveat, which tells you a lot

1000
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:38,360
Speaker 1: so far without scheduled appearances with key Democratic nominees on

1001
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 1: the ballot. So the way I read this, I mean,

1002
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,720
Speaker 1: it's funny to imagine that anyone would think that Kamala

1003
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 1: Harris would be like a big motivator for young people

1004
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 1: to turn out. Like she didn't do well with young people.

1005
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:51,240
Speaker 1: Young people don't think a lot of her, so that's

1006
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 1: kind of silly. But what they did here ultimately is

1007
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:56,919
Speaker 1: clearly they leak this to Axios to be like see

1008
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 1: we're using her, and she's great and we really believe

1009
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 1: in her. But they sent her to South Carolina. Like,

1010
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 1: is there a single key race in South Carolina that

1011
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:09,880
Speaker 1: don Rats aren't really competitive in? And I know a

1012
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 1: guy who remembers that she was polling at like fifth

1013
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 1: place in South Carolina. I remember that. Yeah. This is

1014
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 1: sometimes where I start to feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

1015
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:20,320
Speaker 1: And they're like, we're going to send her out with

1016
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 1: young voters. I'm like, okay, well, let's take a look

1017
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 1: at her approval rating. She's actually less popular than Joe Biden.

1018
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 1: She's one of the most reviled candidates, even amongst young voters.

1019
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 1: She was so bad that she didn't make it to

1020
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 1: the Iowa caucuses because she had bad funding and no

1021
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 1: polling even in South Carolina. Yeah, which candidate exactly are

1022
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 1: you speaking to? Yeah? I mean she's speaking in HBCU.

1023
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 1: I think that's fine, cool, you know, as the nation's

1024
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:47,000
Speaker 1: vice president. But don't bill that as like some midterm event.

1025
00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:50,839
Speaker 1: You know, if she was speaking in Georgia, I would

1026
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 1: listen right Athens, I'd be like, oh, okay, that's interesting.

1027
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 1: No scheduled you know, appearances right now, right now, her

1028
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:03,239
Speaker 1: overall average unfavorable rating is fifty two percent, which is

1029
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:06,759
Speaker 1: like a historic high for sitting vice president. She's got

1030
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:09,799
Speaker 1: absolutely no constituency. Yeah, I'm reading here. She's speaking on

1031
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,839
Speaker 1: behalf of a guy who's running for governor in South Carolina. Yeah,

1032
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 1: good luck. Yeah, running as a Democrat in South Carolina.

1033
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 1: Just in general, I mean, on all of these there's

1034
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 1: she's democratic, they say, democratic candidates and competitive state wide races,

1035
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:30,359
Speaker 1: even like Barnes in Wisconsin. Yeah, have a dilemma on

1036
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:34,160
Speaker 1: whether it's politically advantageous to campaign with either the president

1037
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 1: or vice president who suffer from low approval ratings in

1038
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:40,280
Speaker 1: battleground states. And I just can't think of a better example.

1039
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 1: I mean Georgia obviously that Biden barely won you know

1040
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 1: what's the phrase, by the skin of his teeth in

1041
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:50,279
Speaker 1: twenty twenty. Right now, he has got a thirty something

1042
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:53,160
Speaker 1: percent approval rating in Georgia, in a state that he

1043
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 1: barely won. Like, that's not tenable, and Kamala's is even lower.

1044
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 1: So what are you going to do in these battle

1045
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 1: battleground states. It is funny to me the way they're

1046
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,719
Speaker 1: trying to bury her though, I mean they're sending her

1047
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 1: to Orangeburg, South Carolina, right, Like, yeah, not exactly a

1048
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 1: key region in terms of like a lot of hospital.

1049
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 1: You're sending a Democrat. It's like sending a Republican to

1050
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 1: like New York City. It's like, what do you do? Like,

1051
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 1: what is this guy even doing? And the major right

1052
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 1: and the major you know, candidates even in Wisconsin are like,

1053
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 1: we're good. Thanks, they we're all set. So are really

1054
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 1: busy though we'd love to be there, but we're just

1055
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,400
Speaker 1: super busy that day. So imember betterman hare So he

1056
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,239
Speaker 1: didn't appear with Biden. That was big, that's right. He

1057
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:37,840
Speaker 1: was like, I'm scheduling confidence. Although that's not that true.

1058
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 1: Though to be fair, that could have just as easily

1059
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:42,800
Speaker 1: been because of his stroke recovery as it is wariness

1060
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 1: of being by Biden. So there were two reasons for

1061
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:48,800
Speaker 1: him to stay away pace. That's a whole other segment there, Crystal, Yes, indeed,

1062
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 1: well we've done that segment too. The other piece we

1063
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 1: wanted to bring up year is we now have a

1064
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:57,880
Speaker 1: final tally of something that Kamala Harris directly defended alone

1065
00:52:57,920 --> 00:53:02,240
Speaker 1: method effectively, the fact that Democrats spent millions of dollars

1066
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 1: in Republican primaries to try to get the nominees that

1067
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:08,080
Speaker 1: they saw as the most extreme and especially I mean

1068
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 1: it was nominees who were extreme on abortion, but also

1069
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 1: on you know, stop the steal, like election conspiracy nonsense,

1070
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 1: something that Kamala Harrison, Democrats across the board say is

1071
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:21,600
Speaker 1: a real existential threat. And then you're out there spending

1072
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 1: I have the numbers here, fifty three million dollars boosting

1073
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 1: these candidates that you know, President Biden is out there

1074
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:31,360
Speaker 1: giving big speeches warning about what crud they are to

1075
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 1: democracy and all of this, like, I mean, those two

1076
00:53:34,680 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 1: things can't coexist. So anyway, it's a long way of saying,

1077
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 1: we now have the final tallly of how they did

1078
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:40,719
Speaker 1: with all of this has going and put this up

1079
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 1: on the screen. If we didn't already democratic meddling pays off,

1080
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:46,360
Speaker 1: well did it? Let's find out the final tally is

1081
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 1: in Democrats succeeded in boosting right wing candidates in six

1082
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 1: out of the thirteen Republican primaries that they meddled in,

1083
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 1: so pretty much a fifty to fifty chance of success

1084
00:53:56,560 --> 00:53:59,399
Speaker 1: that they have here. And I mean, listen, it's a

1085
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 1: big game amble that they're taking here because we all

1086
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 1: know how wrong the polls have been historically. So you

1087
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 1: may think that this gives you a better shot of

1088
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 1: winning in the fall. You may think that ultimately this

1089
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:13,879
Speaker 1: puts you in better position hold onto the house hold,

1090
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 1: onto the Senate, et cetera. But very possible some of

1091
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 1: these people ultimately get through. Now, in a lot of

1092
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 1: these races, the when these more extreme candidates won, it

1093
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:28,279
Speaker 1: did shift the sort of prognosticators analysis and ratings of

1094
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:31,880
Speaker 1: those races towards Democrats. So the analysts are saying that

1095
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 1: this was a smart strategy, putting like the ethics and

1096
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:39,920
Speaker 1: morality of it aside. But again, gigantic gamble here. And

1097
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:42,759
Speaker 1: something I've been thinking about lately that I may do

1098
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:46,240
Speaker 1: a monologue on is we talk here a lot about

1099
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:49,360
Speaker 1: candidate quality because you know, it's like, these are interesting

1100
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:52,239
Speaker 1: personalities and it's hilarious to dunk on Oz for his

1101
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,399
Speaker 1: Curtae situation or like Herschelwalker and whatever things that come

1102
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 1: out of his mouth. But ultimately, I'm not a big

1103
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 1: believer that candidate quality matters. All that I agree with you,

1104
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:05,800
Speaker 1: So they're betting a lot here on candidate quality really

1105
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,920
Speaker 1: being centers, and there's no evidence to back that up.

1106
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,359
Speaker 1: Especially Yeah, listen, I think at the Senate level it

1107
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 1: has more of an impact. At the House level, I

1108
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 1: don't think it really matters, totally agree all unless you

1109
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:21,440
Speaker 1: have something that is completely like grabs tons immediate to

1110
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 1: wigh outside of the norm. The House tends to just

1111
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,840
Speaker 1: be about what are the national wins. So if you

1112
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:30,080
Speaker 1: put these people in place, you know, you help them

1113
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 1: win their primaries, you're you really got to hope that

1114
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:35,360
Speaker 1: the national wins end up going the way that you

1115
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:38,320
Speaker 1: want them to go. Oh, absolutely, chrisol, I'm glad that

1116
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:41,520
Speaker 1: you put that. Remember this the most polarizing members of

1117
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 1: the House, let's say, on both sides, ilhan Omar, probably

1118
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:47,439
Speaker 1: Marjorie Taylor Green. They both won their primaries, folks, Yeah,

1119
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 1: get reelected actually quite easily. Now do they run behind

1120
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 1: Biden or Trump? Yeah, actually they do, which is a

1121
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:55,799
Speaker 1: fascinating story and it's own right. But they still win,

1122
00:55:56,040 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 1: and most of the people there are like, yeah, it's

1123
00:55:57,680 --> 00:55:59,920
Speaker 1: kind of annoying how they get all this media attention,

1124
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:03,760
Speaker 1: but whatever. And those are people who are legit famous,

1125
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 1: yes famous, famous, random member of Congress who like you,

1126
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 1: know said something about January sixth or whatever. No one

1127
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:13,160
Speaker 1: knows who the hell this person is, what they did,

1128
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 1: they did whatever. So again, I just think I think

1129
00:56:17,160 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 1: it's a hypocritical bet that they've placed. I think it's

1130
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 1: a foolish gamble that they're making here, because I do

1131
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:25,440
Speaker 1: actually think that these things are serious, especially in the

1132
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 1: state wide races, like when you're talking about the governors,

1133
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 1: the secretaries of state, the attorneys general. These are people

1134
00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 1: who really might be consequential in the next election if

1135
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 1: it's close, and some of whom have outright said like, oh,

1136
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:38,840
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have certified this election if it was me.

1137
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 1: Like that's a legit problem. They're playing with fire here,

1138
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,160
Speaker 1: but so far they feel like this is working out

1139
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 1: for him. We'll see if they still feel that way

1140
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:49,160
Speaker 1: on election day. I think candidate quality really died. What

1141
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 1: twenty ten? That really just made it. I mean, I

1142
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 1: remember because the guy who represented my district was this

1143
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 1: guy ched Edwards. It was interesting actually because he was

1144
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 1: a Democrat who represented the most Republican district of any Democrat.

1145
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:02,839
Speaker 1: He was a R plus twenty six. George W. Bush

1146
00:57:02,920 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 1: used to live there, and he got reelected a year

1147
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,759
Speaker 1: after year it was wild right, Yeah, in twenty ten

1148
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:10,360
Speaker 1: and he lost Vegas margin in the entire country that

1149
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:12,319
Speaker 1: was that was the air Irn for Congress, and there

1150
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:18,000
Speaker 1: was a huge wipeout of these like the job Democrats.

1151
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 1: That there was one in Virginia who represented southwestern Virginia.

1152
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:24,160
Speaker 1: I think his name was Boucher, and he'd been there

1153
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:26,880
Speaker 1: again forever and they were longer than that was a lie,

1154
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:29,680
Speaker 1: you know, this was this was a small rural area,

1155
00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 1: like people knew him personal wish and he had he

1156
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 1: was like the old school of you know, I'm going

1157
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:38,720
Speaker 1: to deliver this in that amenity or road or bridge

1158
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:42,600
Speaker 1: or whatever for my district. That was his politics. And yeah,

1159
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 1: he gets wiped out that year. And that was the

1160
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:48,400
Speaker 1: story across the country. It's just a matter of the

1161
00:57:48,520 --> 00:57:52,440
Speaker 1: more politics have become purely national, the less that the

1162
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:56,439
Speaker 1: candidate quality matters. And I kind of get it, because yeah,

1163
00:57:56,480 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 1: I mean I would look at like, you know, betterman

1164
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, like, yeah, I wish he hadn't had a

1165
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 1: stroke for his sake and for all of our sakes,

1166
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 1: and that he was one hundred, But would I even

1167
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 1: think about voting against him based on no? I wouldn't

1168
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:12,600
Speaker 1: because the issues and his alliance with like in that

1169
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:15,600
Speaker 1: direction that matters so much more to me. So, you know,

1170
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 1: I think that people just vote on these more partisan

1171
00:58:18,840 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 1: leanings and divides and the way they feel about how

1172
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 1: the economy's going, and I don't know that they're really analyzing.

1173
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:28,920
Speaker 1: In fact, there's a pull out this morning, one of

1174
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 1: the worst candids in the country has got to be

1175
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 1: herschel Walker. Yeah, we want this morning has him up

1176
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 1: in Georgia. Yeah, even Raphael Warner, because you would he's

1177
00:58:35,120 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 1: a very good candidate. I mean, the man was a

1178
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:40,480
Speaker 1: you know, he's pretty sure, he's phenomenal on the stunt.

1179
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:43,200
Speaker 1: People really genuinely like him and all of these things,

1180
00:58:43,240 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 1: and and he's up against like one of the worst

1181
00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:47,920
Speaker 1: candids in the country and doesn't really matter that much.

1182
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 1: So sow goes people. I think I just want to

1183
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 1: under score that. I mean, Chet Edward's that kind of

1184
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 1: my district. He was like the veterans guy. He like

1185
00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 1: saved all this money for veterans. He was on the

1186
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:58,800
Speaker 1: VA Committee. I remember people I was growing up with

1187
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 1: like I vote Republican, but I like Chet. And then

1188
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 1: in twenty ten they were like Screwbama, and like that

1189
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:05,440
Speaker 1: was it. It was like, I'll do it. He's going

1190
00:59:05,480 --> 00:59:08,200
Speaker 1: to support Pelosi for speaker, big note. And actually he

1191
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 1: even ran ads saying I'm against Nancy Pelosi and he's

1192
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:13,320
Speaker 1: still lost by like thirty two points. Yeah, like at

1193
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:15,880
Speaker 1: that Yeah, they all tried in that year, they all

1194
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:18,600
Speaker 1: tried to run away from Pelosi was the big one

1195
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 1: in Obama. And it didn't matter. They were like, you're

1196
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:23,480
Speaker 1: part of that party. I don't care. I don't care

1197
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 1: if I know you, I don't care what you've done.

1198
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:27,440
Speaker 1: I don't care. You try to make yourself different, like

1199
00:59:27,520 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 1: and it's I mean, and this is the same in

1200
00:59:29,600 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 1: both directions. So anyway, that's part of how I'm looking

1201
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:34,800
Speaker 1: at these midterms. All Right, media block, So this is

1202
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 1: a crazy thing that has happened, which is that I

1203
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 1: think people in the media are just far too cavalier

1204
00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 1: throwing out the idea that we're like about to be

1205
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 1: in civil war. Yeah, and that happened recently. So let's

1206
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. Major Garrett, who

1207
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 1: is actually quite a good reporter. He recently came a

1208
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:57,080
Speaker 1: book out with the book called The Big Truth, Upholding

1209
00:59:57,080 --> 00:59:59,760
Speaker 1: Democracy in the age of the Big Lie, which is

1210
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:02,880
Speaker 1: a the actual election of twenty twenty, as in how

1211
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 1: it was administered. His claim is that twenty twenty is

1212
01:00:05,560 --> 01:00:08,640
Speaker 1: actually the most secure election in modern American history. I

1213
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:10,440
Speaker 1: don't know anything about the claims of the book, to

1214
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:12,960
Speaker 1: be clear. What I'm saying, though, is that in his

1215
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:16,280
Speaker 1: press tour, what he's been like recently saying is that

1216
01:00:16,320 --> 01:00:19,920
Speaker 1: we're quote on the brink of civil war. And I

1217
01:00:19,920 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 1: mean that gets bandied about a lot these days, but

1218
01:00:23,680 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 1: in particular, what he said was that we are quote,

1219
01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 1: holy crap, we're eighty five percent there in an interview

1220
01:00:32,080 --> 01:00:34,720
Speaker 1: with The Daily Beast, and I'm like, hold on a second, dude,

1221
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 1: Like you are basically claiming, let's say, okay, let's let's

1222
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 1: make it analogous to modern or to American history. When

1223
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:44,880
Speaker 1: were we eighty five percent of the way to the

1224
01:00:44,960 --> 01:00:47,560
Speaker 1: American Civil War? Like you're saying, it's like what eighteen

1225
01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:52,360
Speaker 1: fifty seven? In no way, that's not even remotely possible.

1226
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:54,480
Speaker 1: And so I think we should just be very careful

1227
01:00:54,560 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 1: and especially people in the media, to be able to say, like, yeah,

1228
01:00:57,200 --> 01:00:59,640
Speaker 1: things are really bad and people are downtrodden, and there's

1229
01:00:59,640 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 1: like a big class dynamic and all this, but like

1230
01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:04,920
Speaker 1: we're not taking up arms against each other. And and

1231
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 1: by the way, limited quote unquote conflagrations or riots or

1232
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:10,720
Speaker 1: anything is not the same thing as opposed to an

1233
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:15,800
Speaker 1: actual civil war, like the level of what cavalier the

1234
01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:18,919
Speaker 1: cavalier nature in which he's just willing to like float

1235
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 1: these things and then it just gets picked up by

1236
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 1: the media and everybody's like loving it. I just think

1237
01:01:23,200 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 1: if people should be much more careful when we're discussing,

1238
01:01:25,840 --> 01:01:28,960
Speaker 1: you know, obviously something so sensitive and just normalizing an

1239
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:31,360
Speaker 1: idea and almost wishing it to be true. I honestly

1240
01:01:31,400 --> 01:01:33,960
Speaker 1: think that's kind of what part of it is. I

1241
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 1: want to get to that in a minute. I want

1242
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 1: to read is full quote just we're not accused of

1243
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 1: like taking them out of context. So he says about

1244
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:41,960
Speaker 1: the book in this interview with The Daily Beast, we

1245
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:44,320
Speaker 1: wanted to show people that what we're talking about is

1246
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 1: just incremental steps from where we already are. I don't

1247
01:01:47,400 --> 01:01:50,480
Speaker 1: think anyone reading the first chapter can honestly say, oh,

1248
01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:53,120
Speaker 1: that could never happen. They have to say, holy crap,

1249
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:57,440
Speaker 1: we're eighty five percent there. My understanding, I haven't read

1250
01:01:57,480 --> 01:01:59,680
Speaker 1: the book full disclosure. I thought I actually read the

1251
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:02,680
Speaker 1: book the way I mean, maybe it seems interesting. He

1252
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 1: normally I honestly I don't follow him that closely, but

1253
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:07,680
Speaker 1: my impression of him was he was a more sober

1254
01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:10,600
Speaker 1: minded he was. I worked with him a litpit. I mean,

1255
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:12,960
Speaker 1: we weren't like colleagues, but like, he covered the White

1256
01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 1: House the same time I covered the White House. He

1257
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:15,720
Speaker 1: was always one of the straight shoes. And he's had

1258
01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:19,080
Speaker 1: a phenomenal name. Yeah, I just do that's great name.

1259
01:02:19,200 --> 01:02:22,480
Speaker 1: He also worked He worked at Fox under Obama. He

1260
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:24,960
Speaker 1: was the guy who was the White House correspondent under Obama,

1261
01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 1: and the Obama administration tried to kick him out of

1262
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:28,800
Speaker 1: the Press Corps, and the Press Corps actually stood up

1263
01:02:28,800 --> 01:02:30,640
Speaker 1: for him because they were like, hey, this guy's legit,

1264
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 1: Like you can't be doing this. He went up to

1265
01:02:32,800 --> 01:02:35,360
Speaker 1: go work for CBS. He's done face the nation. I mean,

1266
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:37,600
Speaker 1: he's a great interviewer actually in his own right, one

1267
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:40,480
Speaker 1: of the first people to ever embrace podcasting to in

1268
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:42,280
Speaker 1: the busin so like, I do kind of respect him,

1269
01:02:42,320 --> 01:02:44,480
Speaker 1: and that's why I was I'm looking at this and

1270
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:48,040
Speaker 1: I'm like, dude, he can't be thrown around words, eighty

1271
01:02:48,080 --> 01:02:53,160
Speaker 1: five percent close to civil war without some very serious evidence.

1272
01:02:53,200 --> 01:02:56,480
Speaker 1: And by the way, evidence of wanting to object at

1273
01:02:56,560 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 1: the Supreme Courts or at the stet Senate is bad.

1274
01:02:59,720 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 1: I think that we've all said that evidence of the

1275
01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:06,040
Speaker 1: overstock CEO and Mike Lindell and Mike Flynn wanting to

1276
01:03:06,320 --> 01:03:10,000
Speaker 1: literally see the election is also very bad. Is it

1277
01:03:10,080 --> 01:03:12,720
Speaker 1: the same thing though as what Michael Moore claimed on

1278
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:15,520
Speaker 1: our show about Bill Barr going to go seize election

1279
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:19,920
Speaker 1: boxes in battleground strace, No, that's actually not our same

1280
01:03:19,960 --> 01:03:22,480
Speaker 1: ting not to be one of the reasons. Yeah, that's

1281
01:03:23,080 --> 01:03:25,440
Speaker 1: the reason play. So it's like, what actually happened is like, okay,

1282
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 1: So I don't want to downplay the impending risks in

1283
01:03:29,760 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 1: terms of possible constitutional crisis. If we wind up with

1284
01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:38,920
Speaker 1: a replay of twenty twenty where it's close and there's enough,

1285
01:03:39,040 --> 01:03:42,640
Speaker 1: you know, enough things for Trump to work with to

1286
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:44,840
Speaker 1: say this is this is stolen. And honestly, I think

1287
01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 1: he's so brazen now that it doesn't matter whether it's

1288
01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 1: close or not, he'll say it's stolen. The fact that

1289
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:54,400
Speaker 1: you do have so many people who are now you know,

1290
01:03:54,640 --> 01:03:57,600
Speaker 1: nominees for governor nominees for Secretary of State who have

1291
01:03:57,760 --> 01:03:59,840
Speaker 1: said we wouldn't have certified the election like that, Is

1292
01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:04,360
Speaker 1: it really a genuine problem and a potential constitutional crisis.

1293
01:04:04,400 --> 01:04:06,360
Speaker 1: I don't think we should downplay that. What's about freaking

1294
01:04:06,400 --> 01:04:10,600
Speaker 1: Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania is a terrifying disaster. There's no

1295
01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:12,440
Speaker 1: doubt about that. I don't think that we should like

1296
01:04:12,800 --> 01:04:17,200
Speaker 1: shrink from saying that. I think part of the obsession

1297
01:04:17,560 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 1: with uh, we're on the brink of a civil war,

1298
01:04:21,120 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 1: which is a different thing from a constitutional crisis of

1299
01:04:24,520 --> 01:04:26,600
Speaker 1: the type that I'm laying out and contemplating here, in

1300
01:04:26,640 --> 01:04:29,600
Speaker 1: which I think is very realistic and scary scenario to

1301
01:04:29,640 --> 01:04:33,840
Speaker 1: think about. I think that comes from the fact that

1302
01:04:35,360 --> 01:04:38,360
Speaker 1: it makes these characters like Major Garrett and everybody else

1303
01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 1: in DC. It makes them very central. It makes them

1304
01:04:40,880 --> 01:04:43,880
Speaker 1: like I'm here at this historic moment in history that's

1305
01:04:43,960 --> 01:04:47,080
Speaker 1: unlike any other. It also, I think comes out of

1306
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:51,480
Speaker 1: a bit of a bubble mindset because their whole world,

1307
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:55,000
Speaker 1: and I understand this, like their whole world is these

1308
01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:58,240
Speaker 1: political conflicts. That's what their whole career and their life,

1309
01:04:58,280 --> 01:05:01,640
Speaker 1: and they live mostly in DC. That's what their whole

1310
01:05:01,840 --> 01:05:05,600
Speaker 1: thing is. Centered around So it feels very much like

1311
01:05:06,080 --> 01:05:09,800
Speaker 1: those divisions are the only thing that is really, you know,

1312
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:13,600
Speaker 1: important in American life right now, whereas you know, the

1313
01:05:13,640 --> 01:05:16,360
Speaker 1: majority of Americans like they've got a lot of other

1314
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:19,080
Speaker 1: concerns going on. That's why the threat to democracy never

1315
01:05:19,120 --> 01:05:22,320
Speaker 1: comes up as one of the top issues for voters,

1316
01:05:22,360 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 1: because they're like, how about I'm able to pay my

1317
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:28,120
Speaker 1: rent and put food on the table. And also in

1318
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:31,800
Speaker 1: day to day life, you know, I live out in

1319
01:05:31,920 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 1: rural America amongst a lot of people who think a

1320
01:05:34,840 --> 01:05:37,480
Speaker 1: lot differently than not a lot of Bernie Sanders supporters

1321
01:05:37,480 --> 01:05:39,880
Speaker 1: in King George County, Virginia, let me tell you, and

1322
01:05:40,520 --> 01:05:43,400
Speaker 1: life is very like kind and people are good to

1323
01:05:43,480 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 1: each other, and you know, people try to be respectful

1324
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:48,800
Speaker 1: and they try to see things. You know, it's not

1325
01:05:48,960 --> 01:05:51,120
Speaker 1: like ugly and like we're about to murder each other

1326
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:55,320
Speaker 1: out there. So I think a part of the civil

1327
01:05:55,400 --> 01:05:59,120
Speaker 1: war idea and obsession comes from genuine concern over things

1328
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 1: that are real, And part of it comes from being

1329
01:06:01,320 --> 01:06:03,720
Speaker 1: in a bubble where the only thing you see are

1330
01:06:03,720 --> 01:06:05,800
Speaker 1: these political conflicts and you think that's all there is,

1331
01:06:05,840 --> 01:06:09,120
Speaker 1: and vice versa. I live around cringe Ukraine flag libs

1332
01:06:09,120 --> 01:06:12,080
Speaker 1: and guess what, they're nice people. Cool. Now we walk

1333
01:06:12,080 --> 01:06:14,240
Speaker 1: our dogs. I'm like, hell's that Doug done. It's like

1334
01:06:14,520 --> 01:06:18,479
Speaker 1: very basic, Like can you believe the ups guy? This guy,

1335
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:21,040
Speaker 1: the way he puts his packages out there. You know,

1336
01:06:21,120 --> 01:06:24,600
Speaker 1: one guy, one of my neighbors, one of my packages

1337
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:27,680
Speaker 1: actually got delivered and he was distraught because he had

1338
01:06:27,680 --> 01:06:29,960
Speaker 1: actually opened it. I'm like, dude, it's chill, like he

1339
01:06:30,160 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 1: delivered it to relax man. He wrote me the whole note.

1340
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:35,040
Speaker 1: I'm like, it's totally fine. Once again, he's got some

1341
01:06:35,120 --> 01:06:37,400
Speaker 1: you know, he's got all the flags outside. It's all good.

1342
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:39,840
Speaker 1: You know, it's like we're just living. It's and you know,

1343
01:06:39,960 --> 01:06:42,280
Speaker 1: we also we can point to other American history. I

1344
01:06:42,280 --> 01:06:45,080
Speaker 1: don't think anybody what's more analogous to our time is

1345
01:06:45,160 --> 01:06:48,120
Speaker 1: the eighteen seventy six US election. Everybody forgets about that one.

1346
01:06:48,600 --> 01:06:51,720
Speaker 1: Very close, lots of allegation of fraud, corruption gets thrown

1347
01:06:51,760 --> 01:06:54,479
Speaker 1: to the House of Representatives, you get a corrupt backroom deal,

1348
01:06:54,720 --> 01:06:57,600
Speaker 1: Rutherford B. Hayes becomes president. I mean, that's probably a

1349
01:06:57,640 --> 01:06:59,320
Speaker 1: hell of a lot more analogous to like the quote

1350
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:02,960
Speaker 1: unquote constant crisis close and fraud allegation. We're getting into

1351
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:05,320
Speaker 1: the gilded age. A lot of back room you know,

1352
01:07:05,400 --> 01:07:08,400
Speaker 1: dealing going on, lots of fraud times and all that.

1353
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:11,040
Speaker 1: You know, we've gotten through a lot worse. Yeah, you know,

1354
01:07:11,160 --> 01:07:13,640
Speaker 1: not everything is It's like when you know, everybody says,

1355
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:16,640
Speaker 1: like every online discussion devolves to Hitler. Not everything is

1356
01:07:16,640 --> 01:07:18,840
Speaker 1: a civil war either. But we have crazy, you know,

1357
01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:22,280
Speaker 1: crazy times, acrimonious times in history, and like it was fine,

1358
01:07:22,320 --> 01:07:24,560
Speaker 1: we lived through it, everyone got over it eventually. Let

1359
01:07:24,560 --> 01:07:27,000
Speaker 1: me say one more like caveat to this because you

1360
01:07:27,040 --> 01:07:28,560
Speaker 1: pointed this sound earlier, but I just want to make

1361
01:07:28,600 --> 01:07:30,720
Speaker 1: this clear, Like that's different from saying that we could

1362
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:34,000
Speaker 1: very much have a continued escalation in political violence like

1363
01:07:34,040 --> 01:07:37,160
Speaker 1: the maniac who tried to shoot up the FBI office

1364
01:07:37,240 --> 01:07:39,920
Speaker 1: and you know, the crazy dude with the pipe bombs

1365
01:07:39,920 --> 01:07:43,800
Speaker 1: and the Trump van and you know riots, Like I

1366
01:07:43,840 --> 01:07:47,520
Speaker 1: think it is very possible, if not likely, we continue

1367
01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:51,000
Speaker 1: to have escalations in that direction. That's the fringe of

1368
01:07:51,040 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 1: the fringe of the fringe right. That's not all of

1369
01:07:53,640 --> 01:07:56,680
Speaker 1: society splitting in two as much as and there are

1370
01:07:56,680 --> 01:07:58,640
Speaker 1: other like there are a lot of right wing remember

1371
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:01,640
Speaker 1: after the Trump FBI there were all these like you know,

1372
01:08:01,800 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 1: people online who were like the Civil War starts now,

1373
01:08:05,280 --> 01:08:09,040
Speaker 1: like actually it doesn't. And they just went and did

1374
01:08:09,080 --> 01:08:12,000
Speaker 1: their podcast and have continued, you know, doing their paid

1375
01:08:12,040 --> 01:08:14,720
Speaker 1: speeches like they always do one correct, same thing. You know,

1376
01:08:14,760 --> 01:08:16,800
Speaker 1: we've had an you think we've never had anarchist violence

1377
01:08:16,800 --> 01:08:18,439
Speaker 1: in this country before. We had a whole string of

1378
01:08:18,520 --> 01:08:21,000
Speaker 1: like crazy bombings in the seventies, also in the early

1379
01:08:21,080 --> 01:08:24,320
Speaker 1: nineteen highlights or the nineteen nineties of Tim thy McVeigh

1380
01:08:25,400 --> 01:08:27,519
Speaker 1: right the government. There's streamists. There's still a lot of

1381
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:30,680
Speaker 1: questions bout that. Anyway, I don't even I don't that

1382
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:36,120
Speaker 1: rabbit hole right now, Bristol, what are you taking a

1383
01:08:36,120 --> 01:08:38,560
Speaker 1: look at? Four years now, we have been subjected to

1384
01:08:38,840 --> 01:08:43,000
Speaker 1: harrowing accounts of Russian bots and disinformation campaigns and Malian

1385
01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:47,080
Speaker 1: influence that are supposedly destroying our country. Credulous reporters declared

1386
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:49,880
Speaker 1: that these troll farms are to blame for everything from

1387
01:08:50,040 --> 01:08:54,200
Speaker 1: Trump's election to Bernie success to backlash against racial justice protests.

1388
01:08:54,280 --> 01:08:57,320
Speaker 1: Putin is backing Trump, Putin is sewing division as if

1389
01:08:57,360 --> 01:08:59,960
Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin was some grand chess master in the American

1390
01:09:00,280 --> 01:09:02,560
Speaker 1: were just helpless puppets dancing to the beat of the

1391
01:09:02,600 --> 01:09:06,960
Speaker 1: Kremlin drump. This neo McCarthyism led to basically every dissident

1392
01:09:07,000 --> 01:09:08,960
Speaker 1: voice on the left hand on the right being branded

1393
01:09:09,000 --> 01:09:14,800
Speaker 1: as effectively traitorous, useful idiots, Kremlin stooges, boot and puppets, etc, Etc. Etc. Well,

1394
01:09:14,840 --> 01:09:17,040
Speaker 1: The New York Times has dropped a doozy of this

1395
01:09:17,120 --> 01:09:21,599
Speaker 1: general genre about the Women's March, and specifically controversy around

1396
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 1: Linda Sarsor's involvement in that march. So here is that piece.

1397
01:09:25,479 --> 01:09:28,680
Speaker 1: How Russian trolls helped keep the Women's March out of lockstep,

1398
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:31,799
Speaker 1: They say, as American feminists came together in twenty seventeen

1399
01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:36,919
Speaker 1: to protest Donald Trump, Russia's disinformation machine set about deepening

1400
01:09:36,920 --> 01:09:40,200
Speaker 1: the divides among them. Listen, I will spare you the

1401
01:09:40,240 --> 01:09:43,559
Speaker 1: gory and predictable details of this article, but basically, The

1402
01:09:43,600 --> 01:09:45,680
Speaker 1: Time says that Russian troll farms tweeted a bunch of

1403
01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:48,679
Speaker 1: crop about Linda Sarsoor wanting Sharia and being a terrorist,

1404
01:09:48,760 --> 01:09:51,200
Speaker 1: got picked up and co opted by right wing influencers,

1405
01:09:51,439 --> 01:09:53,519
Speaker 1: with the ultimate result being that what looked like a

1406
01:09:53,560 --> 01:09:56,000
Speaker 1: cohesive response to Trump's selection just think of all those

1407
01:09:56,040 --> 01:09:59,920
Speaker 1: pussy hats instantly devolved into infighting and more or less collapsed.

1408
01:10:00,320 --> 01:10:02,880
Speaker 1: Jacobin writer Bronco Marcetic did a great job tearing this

1409
01:10:02,920 --> 01:10:05,719
Speaker 1: whole piece apart, he writes on Twitter quote. The central

1410
01:10:05,760 --> 01:10:09,080
Speaker 1: conceit of this very silly article is that Islamophobia, pro

1411
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:14,080
Speaker 1: Israel sentiment, accusations of anti Semitism toward criticism of Israel

1412
01:10:14,200 --> 01:10:18,120
Speaker 1: are all impositions of a shadowy foreign power, not deep rooted,

1413
01:10:18,160 --> 01:10:22,040
Speaker 1: long standing features of US political discourse. The other conceit

1414
01:10:22,160 --> 01:10:24,240
Speaker 1: is that because Russian troll farms did stuff, then it

1415
01:10:24,280 --> 01:10:26,879
Speaker 1: goes without saying it had some sort of outsize impact.

1416
01:10:26,880 --> 01:10:30,040
Speaker 1: This is accomplished largely because this genre of article never

1417
01:10:30,120 --> 01:10:33,120
Speaker 1: bothers to compare numbers with non Russia accounts, nor with

1418
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:36,759
Speaker 1: TV in print media. Finally, Marcetic says, the piece relies

1419
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:39,480
Speaker 1: not only on that side of hand, but on dishonestly

1420
01:10:39,479 --> 01:10:42,439
Speaker 1: fudging the timeline, making it seem like the Russian bot

1421
01:10:42,439 --> 01:10:45,640
Speaker 1: accounts started this line of messaging versus SARSAR, when in

1422
01:10:45,680 --> 01:10:48,320
Speaker 1: fact at least one account did a day earlier and

1423
01:10:48,439 --> 01:10:51,880
Speaker 1: with far better numbers. So basically another piece of dishonest

1424
01:10:51,880 --> 01:10:53,960
Speaker 1: reporting from the New York Times. They have really been

1425
01:10:54,000 --> 01:10:56,720
Speaker 1: churning out some bangers lately, a piece which creates a

1426
01:10:56,760 --> 01:10:59,160
Speaker 1: convenient excuse, by the way, for our nation's divides and

1427
01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:02,280
Speaker 1: dysfunction into tracks from any real inquiry into the underlying

1428
01:11:02,320 --> 01:11:05,480
Speaker 1: causes of our national rut and how elites are responsible

1429
01:11:05,479 --> 01:11:09,080
Speaker 1: for them. But almost poetically, this Russian troll farm Women's

1430
01:11:09,080 --> 01:11:13,760
Speaker 1: March disinformation story was quickly followed by some crucial revelations

1431
01:11:13,800 --> 01:11:16,760
Speaker 1: about what our own military is up to online. Now,

1432
01:11:16,960 --> 01:11:19,799
Speaker 1: you probably won't be surprised by this, but guess what, guys,

1433
01:11:20,280 --> 01:11:22,599
Speaker 1: Our government was just caught doing all the same shit

1434
01:11:22,760 --> 01:11:27,280
Speaker 1: as Russia, bots, misinformation, propaganda, the whole thing. Apparently, the

1435
01:11:27,280 --> 01:11:30,360
Speaker 1: effort was so widespread and poorly run that the whole

1436
01:11:30,400 --> 01:11:33,760
Speaker 1: project is being subjected to an audit right now. So

1437
01:11:33,840 --> 01:11:37,200
Speaker 1: here's the Washington Post this report quote. The Pentagon is

1438
01:11:37,280 --> 01:11:41,280
Speaker 1: ordered a sweeping audit of how it conducts clandestine information

1439
01:11:41,560 --> 01:11:45,519
Speaker 1: warfare after major social media companies identified and took offline

1440
01:11:45,640 --> 01:11:49,080
Speaker 1: fake accounts suspected of being run by the US military

1441
01:11:49,120 --> 01:11:53,080
Speaker 1: in violation of the platform's rules. So apparently you can torture,

1442
01:11:53,160 --> 01:11:56,000
Speaker 1: drone strike and overturn governments with impunity but God helped

1443
01:11:56,000 --> 01:11:58,599
Speaker 1: the nation state that violates the terms of service now.

1444
01:11:58,600 --> 01:12:00,719
Speaker 1: The article goes on to detail the type of content

1445
01:12:00,760 --> 01:12:03,520
Speaker 1: that has caused concern, citing, among others, a tweet suggesting

1446
01:12:03,560 --> 01:12:08,160
Speaker 1: that Iran was harvesting the organs of Afghan refugees, and

1447
01:12:08,240 --> 01:12:12,000
Speaker 1: others that were countering Chinese propaganda about the origins of COVID.

1448
01:12:12,280 --> 01:12:15,160
Speaker 1: According to the Post, the review was triggered by really

1449
01:12:15,200 --> 01:12:18,360
Speaker 1: two things. First, an independent report this summer by the

1450
01:12:18,360 --> 01:12:21,719
Speaker 1: Stanford Internet Observatory and Graphica, which noted that a massive

1451
01:12:21,760 --> 01:12:24,080
Speaker 1: network of accounts had been removed by Facebook and Twitter,

1452
01:12:24,600 --> 01:12:27,240
Speaker 1: and that those accounts appeared to be connected to the

1453
01:12:27,320 --> 01:12:30,320
Speaker 1: United States government. They described this network as the quote

1454
01:12:30,600 --> 01:12:34,760
Speaker 1: most extensive case of covert pro Western influence operations on

1455
01:12:34,800 --> 01:12:37,240
Speaker 1: social media to be reviewed and analyzed by open source

1456
01:12:37,280 --> 01:12:41,120
Speaker 1: researchers to date, So a massive network. The other factor

1457
01:12:41,160 --> 01:12:44,400
Speaker 1: triggering a review was that social media executives called the

1458
01:12:44,400 --> 01:12:47,839
Speaker 1: government out for the ham handed nature of their big syop.

1459
01:12:48,200 --> 01:12:51,000
Speaker 1: Facebook was basically like, Hey, if you're going to run

1460
01:12:51,040 --> 01:12:52,840
Speaker 1: a sy up on our site, at least have the

1461
01:12:52,840 --> 01:12:55,519
Speaker 1: decency to do it. Well. Here's how the Post recounted

1462
01:12:55,520 --> 01:12:58,559
Speaker 1: one Facebook executive's message to the United States government, he said.

1463
01:12:58,640 --> 01:13:02,479
Speaker 1: Quote his point, one person said was, guys, you got caught.

1464
01:13:02,960 --> 01:13:05,960
Speaker 1: That is a problem. Oh, that's the problem that they

1465
01:13:06,000 --> 01:13:09,280
Speaker 1: got caught. Facebook of course, has omitted coordinating with governments,

1466
01:13:09,280 --> 01:13:11,200
Speaker 1: including our own, So it should surprise no one that

1467
01:13:11,240 --> 01:13:13,439
Speaker 1: what they are most irritated by is that the company

1468
01:13:13,479 --> 01:13:17,280
Speaker 1: was denied plausible deniability by the incompetence of our government's

1469
01:13:17,320 --> 01:13:20,400
Speaker 1: secret activities. And that's apparently the key concern of this

1470
01:13:20,439 --> 01:13:23,520
Speaker 1: new government led review as well, not whether these operations

1471
01:13:23,560 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 1: are ethical, but whether they are effective. From the Post, quote,

1472
01:13:27,520 --> 01:13:30,639
Speaker 1: a key issue for senior policymakers now is determining whether

1473
01:13:30,640 --> 01:13:35,759
Speaker 1: the military's execution of clandestine influence operations is delivering results.

1474
01:13:35,880 --> 01:13:39,280
Speaker 1: Quote Is the juice worth the squeeze? Does our approach

1475
01:13:39,360 --> 01:13:42,280
Speaker 1: really have the potential for the return on investment we hoped?

1476
01:13:42,680 --> 01:13:45,800
Speaker 1: Or is it just causing more challenges? One person familiar

1477
01:13:45,800 --> 01:13:50,120
Speaker 1: with the debate said, so, apparently the Pentagon bought mercenaries

1478
01:13:50,280 --> 01:13:53,000
Speaker 1: are not great posters. The Post notes that the vast

1479
01:13:53,000 --> 01:13:55,400
Speaker 1: majority of these posts only garnered a handful of likes

1480
01:13:55,400 --> 01:13:58,840
Speaker 1: and retweets, and that, according to the Stanford research, only

1481
01:13:58,960 --> 01:14:01,200
Speaker 1: nineteen percent of the fake accounts had more than a

1482
01:14:01,240 --> 01:14:04,360
Speaker 1: thousand followers. But notice how this influence operation is being

1483
01:14:04,439 --> 01:14:07,080
Speaker 1: presented in the Washington Post compared to how the Russian

1484
01:14:07,120 --> 01:14:10,519
Speaker 1: bots Women's March story was presented in the New York Times.

1485
01:14:11,000 --> 01:14:13,160
Speaker 1: So in the Women's March story, they made sure to

1486
01:14:13,200 --> 01:14:15,280
Speaker 1: find the tweets that have the highest number of retweets

1487
01:14:15,320 --> 01:14:19,080
Speaker 1: to paint a portrait of a devastatingly effective operation. Here

1488
01:14:19,360 --> 01:14:21,920
Speaker 1: when it's the US government running the bot army, they

1489
01:14:22,000 --> 01:14:24,680
Speaker 1: downplay that this stuff matters at all. I guess in

1490
01:14:24,760 --> 01:14:27,120
Speaker 1: the news, as in social media, it's kind of hard

1491
01:14:27,160 --> 01:14:30,200
Speaker 1: to shift sift through the propaganda to figure out the truth.

1492
01:14:30,640 --> 01:14:32,800
Speaker 1: That was the thing that I most First of all,

1493
01:14:32,840 --> 01:14:34,759
Speaker 1: it's not a big surprise that they're doing all this stuff.

1494
01:14:34,760 --> 01:14:37,120
Speaker 1: I mean, and if you want to hear my reaction

1495
01:14:37,280 --> 01:14:40,840
Speaker 1: to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints

1496
01:14:40,880 --> 01:14:46,240
Speaker 1: dot Com. All right, Zachary, looking at well, something we

1497
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:48,599
Speaker 1: haven't forgotten over here at Breaking Points is the lab

1498
01:14:48,680 --> 01:14:51,920
Speaker 1: leakue theory and cover up by doctor Anthony Fauci, by

1499
01:14:51,920 --> 01:14:54,759
Speaker 1: the media, by the tech companies and the general powers.

1500
01:14:54,760 --> 01:14:57,920
Speaker 1: To be Sadly, I've made my piece the fact Fauci

1501
01:14:57,960 --> 01:15:00,600
Speaker 1: will probably never be accountable for no no matter what

1502
01:15:00,680 --> 01:15:03,160
Speaker 1: happens with the Senate. At this point, we have enough

1503
01:15:03,160 --> 01:15:06,080
Speaker 1: smoking gun proof to call into question Gain of Function research,

1504
01:15:06,320 --> 01:15:09,320
Speaker 1: their own misdeeds and shutting down any inquiry two years ago,

1505
01:15:09,560 --> 01:15:13,280
Speaker 1: and yet nothing has or probably will be done. Lab Leak, though,

1506
01:15:13,479 --> 01:15:15,880
Speaker 1: remains one of the great cover ups of our lifetime,

1507
01:15:16,120 --> 01:15:18,479
Speaker 1: and anytime there's more caller to the story, just to

1508
01:15:18,520 --> 01:15:20,559
Speaker 1: show how big the stakes were at the time, the

1509
01:15:20,600 --> 01:15:23,080
Speaker 1: players involved, and who benefited, I'm going to do my

1510
01:15:23,160 --> 01:15:25,439
Speaker 1: best to bring that out, which brings us to some

1511
01:15:25,479 --> 01:15:28,360
Speaker 1: stunning new reporting by Right to Know. It's a transparency

1512
01:15:28,479 --> 01:15:32,120
Speaker 1: organization dedicated to revealing the truth of the government's want

1513
01:15:32,120 --> 01:15:35,120
Speaker 1: covered up. Right to Know has now compiled a definitive

1514
01:15:35,160 --> 01:15:38,120
Speaker 1: and a damning timeline of evidence, which is important that

1515
01:15:38,160 --> 01:15:39,960
Speaker 1: I'm going to take you all through. Write to Know

1516
01:15:40,040 --> 01:15:42,719
Speaker 1: notes in a succinct and important timeline that on January

1517
01:15:42,720 --> 01:15:45,680
Speaker 1: twenty seventh, Fauci learned, or at the least was reminded

1518
01:15:45,840 --> 01:15:48,360
Speaker 1: that he and his organization had funded Gain of Function

1519
01:15:48,479 --> 01:15:52,160
Speaker 1: research at the Wuhan Lab. Two days later, Christian Anderson,

1520
01:15:52,320 --> 01:15:56,120
Speaker 1: a researcher at Script's Research Institute in Lahalla, California, discovered

1521
01:15:56,120 --> 01:15:59,960
Speaker 1: a paper describing gain of function research techniques with coronaviruses

1522
01:16:00,080 --> 01:16:02,799
Speaker 1: at the Wuhan Lab. Three days after that, on January

1523
01:16:02,800 --> 01:16:05,559
Speaker 1: thirty first, twenty twenty, Fauci and Anderson spoke privately in

1524
01:16:05,560 --> 01:16:08,439
Speaker 1: a conversation that we don't know anything about. Additionally, on

1525
01:16:08,479 --> 01:16:11,120
Speaker 1: that day, two other researchers told Fauci that the novel

1526
01:16:11,120 --> 01:16:16,559
Speaker 1: coronavirus was quote inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary theory. The

1527
01:16:16,600 --> 01:16:19,800
Speaker 1: next day, Fauci sought more details from his organization on

1528
01:16:19,840 --> 01:16:23,000
Speaker 1: which specific projects he and the NIH had funded at

1529
01:16:23,000 --> 01:16:25,320
Speaker 1: the Wuhan Lab. And it was during these critical few

1530
01:16:25,400 --> 01:16:28,200
Speaker 1: days where the lap leak theory was considered as likely

1531
01:16:28,240 --> 01:16:31,040
Speaker 1: as natural origin theory amongst the scientists, and in some

1532
01:16:31,080 --> 01:16:33,880
Speaker 1: cases even more. And it's when the full fledged freak

1533
01:16:33,920 --> 01:16:36,160
Speaker 1: out and cover up was taking place. At the same time.

1534
01:16:36,560 --> 01:16:40,800
Speaker 1: At one point, one of the researchers circulated thoughts amongst virologists,

1535
01:16:40,800 --> 01:16:44,400
Speaker 1: including Fauci, that included analysis from Mike Farzan that said

1536
01:16:44,400 --> 01:16:47,240
Speaker 1: that the said of the feurin cleaved site on the

1537
01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:50,479
Speaker 1: COVID virus quote, there are possible ways in nature, but

1538
01:16:50,600 --> 01:16:54,160
Speaker 1: it's quote highly unlikely, and specifically noting that it was

1539
01:16:54,240 --> 01:16:57,840
Speaker 1: quote a hard time to explain as an event outside

1540
01:16:58,040 --> 01:17:00,439
Speaker 1: of a lab. At this point is when the cover

1541
01:17:00,520 --> 01:17:04,600
Speaker 1: up went into full gear. Farrar and others began circulating

1542
01:17:04,640 --> 01:17:07,480
Speaker 1: thoughts of a paper to be published in Nature magazine

1543
01:17:07,640 --> 01:17:10,920
Speaker 1: which famously declared that COVID did come did not come

1544
01:17:10,960 --> 01:17:14,639
Speaker 1: from a lab. That paper has been since called into question,

1545
01:17:14,880 --> 01:17:17,879
Speaker 1: though it effectively determined the policy from that day forward

1546
01:17:18,040 --> 01:17:21,360
Speaker 1: of Fauci the who the Chinese government, the media, and

1547
01:17:21,400 --> 01:17:24,160
Speaker 1: the tech companies to declare truth. In the draft of

1548
01:17:24,160 --> 01:17:27,360
Speaker 1: those notes, Farrar specifically told the research that quote they

1549
01:17:27,360 --> 01:17:30,160
Speaker 1: had left out quote anomalies which would have made them

1550
01:17:30,240 --> 01:17:34,599
Speaker 1: quote look like loons. In other words, they specifically left

1551
01:17:34,600 --> 01:17:37,160
Speaker 1: out evidence in fact that pointed to a lab leak.

1552
01:17:37,400 --> 01:17:40,160
Speaker 1: And it was then things took an even more deceitful turn.

1553
01:17:40,840 --> 01:17:44,000
Speaker 1: Christian Anderson, who previously had identified COVID as maybe coming

1554
01:17:44,000 --> 01:17:46,960
Speaker 1: from a lab days earlier, had indicated he believed said

1555
01:17:47,080 --> 01:17:49,479
Speaker 1: he and others had a responsibility to push back though

1556
01:17:49,720 --> 01:17:52,479
Speaker 1: against the idea that COVID was specifically engineered by the

1557
01:17:52,560 --> 01:17:55,479
Speaker 1: Chinese government, saying instead that since that they hadn't they

1558
01:17:55,479 --> 01:17:58,640
Speaker 1: should instead say that the virus was quote consistent with

1559
01:17:58,760 --> 01:18:02,719
Speaker 1: natural evolution. Now again, the document and the paper they published,

1560
01:18:02,720 --> 01:18:05,879
Speaker 1: which set policy for over a year, was specifically designed

1561
01:18:05,920 --> 01:18:09,160
Speaker 1: as a messaging document, not a document of science, to

1562
01:18:09,200 --> 01:18:11,840
Speaker 1: push back against the idea that COVID was engineered as

1563
01:18:11,840 --> 01:18:15,160
Speaker 1: a bioweapon. But we all know that's a canard. It

1564
01:18:15,200 --> 01:18:17,719
Speaker 1: does not address the idea and the magnitude of evidence

1565
01:18:17,880 --> 01:18:20,240
Speaker 1: at this point, and even then that it was research

1566
01:18:20,479 --> 01:18:23,000
Speaker 1: gone bad and the virus may well have been stead

1567
01:18:23,040 --> 01:18:26,759
Speaker 1: accidentally escaped. The paper was accepted and published by Nature

1568
01:18:26,920 --> 01:18:30,479
Speaker 1: March seventeenth, twenty twenty, coincided right with the first lockdown,

1569
01:18:30,680 --> 01:18:33,040
Speaker 1: and it was that article that set the tone that

1570
01:18:33,080 --> 01:18:36,559
Speaker 1: said definitively, COVID did not leak from the lab that

1571
01:18:36,800 --> 01:18:40,160
Speaker 1: lasted for nearly a month time period that I took

1572
01:18:40,160 --> 01:18:42,760
Speaker 1: you through just now because it was critical for the

1573
01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:46,320
Speaker 1: next year. During that period we learned a lot. Peter

1574
01:18:46,439 --> 01:18:49,599
Speaker 1: Dazak and Ego Health Alliance, the organization that served as

1575
01:18:49,600 --> 01:18:52,080
Speaker 1: a conduit for Fauci money to the Wuhan Lab. How

1576
01:18:52,160 --> 01:18:54,960
Speaker 1: Dazac himself, Marshall Fauci, and much of the scientific community

1577
01:18:55,080 --> 01:18:57,800
Speaker 1: to push back against the Lablay hypothesis before any of

1578
01:18:57,840 --> 01:19:00,400
Speaker 1: this evidence is clear how Dazak was higher by the

1579
01:19:00,439 --> 01:19:03,599
Speaker 1: WHO to help investigate the theory and miraculously found actually

1580
01:19:03,600 --> 01:19:06,280
Speaker 1: it had no basis and had something directly at stake.

1581
01:19:06,760 --> 01:19:09,439
Speaker 1: Months of Foya's investigations have brought us to the point

1582
01:19:09,520 --> 01:19:11,559
Speaker 1: where we see all kinds of sketchy things that were

1583
01:19:11,600 --> 01:19:15,439
Speaker 1: also happening at that time, including this how Harvard Medical

1584
01:19:15,479 --> 01:19:18,600
Speaker 1: School and how Harvard aligned experts changed their tune on

1585
01:19:18,720 --> 01:19:21,839
Speaker 1: lab Leak after one hundred and fifteen million dollar donation

1586
01:19:21,920 --> 01:19:25,960
Speaker 1: to Harvard from Evergrand, the Chinese real estate behemoth that

1587
01:19:26,000 --> 01:19:29,960
Speaker 1: has since had major financial troubles. Even stranger, it showed

1588
01:19:30,720 --> 01:19:33,799
Speaker 1: Fauci was talking to Harvard in some sort of quasi

1589
01:19:33,960 --> 01:19:38,320
Speaker 1: diplomatic mission Wherevergrand said that they needed infro from Fauci

1590
01:19:38,600 --> 01:19:42,240
Speaker 1: on behalf of the Chinese government. Now, obviously China and

1591
01:19:42,280 --> 01:19:44,320
Speaker 1: Fauci they had the most to gain from the lab

1592
01:19:44,400 --> 01:19:47,080
Speaker 1: League theory being dismissed in China because it probably is

1593
01:19:47,120 --> 01:19:49,400
Speaker 1: in their fault that this plague was unleashed on the world.

1594
01:19:49,600 --> 01:19:52,719
Speaker 1: Fauci because he probably helped reverse and skirt the policy

1595
01:19:52,800 --> 01:19:55,599
Speaker 1: which would have stopped the US government from funding this research.

1596
01:19:55,880 --> 01:19:57,640
Speaker 1: But to me, this cover up is going to be

1597
01:19:57,640 --> 01:20:00,160
Speaker 1: part of an extraordinary story where you can really get

1598
01:20:00,200 --> 01:20:02,400
Speaker 1: away with anything if you're just connected enough. If you

1599
01:20:02,479 --> 01:20:05,040
Speaker 1: run pandemic response and the media makes you a hero,

1600
01:20:05,320 --> 01:20:07,640
Speaker 1: you won't be held accountable if you basically get all

1601
01:20:07,680 --> 01:20:09,680
Speaker 1: your friends in science to back you up and make

1602
01:20:09,720 --> 01:20:12,880
Speaker 1: yourself synonymous with science. Nobody can really do any actual

1603
01:20:12,920 --> 01:20:15,559
Speaker 1: science to say what you're saying is straight up lies,

1604
01:20:16,040 --> 01:20:19,719
Speaker 1: especially when so called science relies on you for funding.

1605
01:20:20,040 --> 01:20:23,280
Speaker 1: So today, where are we? The Lancet, the so called

1606
01:20:23,360 --> 01:20:27,080
Speaker 1: gold standard medical journal, now fully acknowledges the lab leaku

1607
01:20:27,120 --> 01:20:30,000
Speaker 1: theory may well be the origin of coronavirus and cites

1608
01:20:30,080 --> 01:20:33,599
Speaker 1: terrible safety practices at the Wuhan lab as raising his likelihood.

1609
01:20:33,800 --> 01:20:36,240
Speaker 1: We will probably never get the proof that COVID did

1610
01:20:36,320 --> 01:20:38,719
Speaker 1: leak from the lab, mostly because the Chinese have long

1611
01:20:38,720 --> 01:20:41,240
Speaker 1: since destroyed the evidence and covered it up. But we

1612
01:20:41,280 --> 01:20:45,040
Speaker 1: already have full enough knowledge that Fauci the scientific community

1613
01:20:45,160 --> 01:20:48,000
Speaker 1: worked with the media to keep us from even asking

1614
01:20:48,040 --> 01:20:50,160
Speaker 1: the question in that year. If it were up to me,

1615
01:20:50,360 --> 01:20:53,080
Speaker 1: these people should be put on trial at the very least. Instead,

1616
01:20:53,240 --> 01:20:56,000
Speaker 1: they will retire as heroes and move on and retire

1617
01:20:56,280 --> 01:20:59,080
Speaker 1: with wealth. And you know, Chrystal, I just can't get

1618
01:20:59,120 --> 01:21:01,280
Speaker 1: over that time. And I want to hear my reaction

1619
01:21:01,360 --> 01:21:05,040
Speaker 1: to Sagre's monologue. Become a premium subscriber today at breakingpoints

1620
01:21:05,040 --> 01:21:10,320
Speaker 1: dot Com. Join us now for little midterms check in,

1621
01:21:10,400 --> 01:21:13,320
Speaker 1: we have j Miles Coleman. He is associate editor of

1622
01:21:13,439 --> 01:21:19,479
Speaker 1: Sabato's Crystal Ball. Right to see, Miles. So I saw

1623
01:21:19,520 --> 01:21:21,080
Speaker 1: this piece in the Washing Post. Let's ahead and put

1624
01:21:21,080 --> 01:21:22,679
Speaker 1: it up on the screen, and I wanted to run

1625
01:21:22,720 --> 01:21:24,360
Speaker 1: it by you and if you thought there was any

1626
01:21:24,520 --> 01:21:27,599
Speaker 1: there there They say, this little known election predictor should

1627
01:21:27,680 --> 01:21:33,240
Speaker 1: worry Democrats, and they point to the primary vote turnout

1628
01:21:33,560 --> 01:21:35,840
Speaker 1: which has favored Republicans. And what I mean by that

1629
01:21:36,000 --> 01:21:40,680
Speaker 1: is more Republicans have turned out during the primaries than Democrats. Historically,

1630
01:21:41,400 --> 01:21:43,400
Speaker 1: the party where more of their voters turn out in

1631
01:21:43,439 --> 01:21:45,880
Speaker 1: the primaries ends up doing well in the midterms. So

1632
01:21:45,880 --> 01:21:49,880
Speaker 1: if we look back at twenty eighteen, Democrats exceeded Republicans

1633
01:21:49,920 --> 01:21:52,080
Speaker 1: in the primary by eight points, they end up winning

1634
01:21:52,120 --> 01:21:55,559
Speaker 1: the House with a nine point margin in the popular vote.

1635
01:21:55,720 --> 01:21:59,440
Speaker 1: This time around, Republicans have had a four point advantage

1636
01:21:59,479 --> 01:22:04,280
Speaker 1: in terms of their primary voters turning out in those elections.

1637
01:22:04,720 --> 01:22:08,839
Speaker 1: Do you think that that translates into a good performance

1638
01:22:08,840 --> 01:22:13,040
Speaker 1: for Republicans ultimately in November? Yeah, sure so. Well for

1639
01:22:13,200 --> 01:22:16,040
Speaker 1: US forecasters, you know, we like to have all of

1640
01:22:16,080 --> 01:22:19,519
Speaker 1: the signs in one way or the other, right and

1641
01:22:19,800 --> 01:22:23,400
Speaker 1: kind of this year, the Democrats have pointed to their

1642
01:22:23,439 --> 01:22:27,960
Speaker 1: overperformance and special elections. You know, Joe Biden's approval isn't great,

1643
01:22:28,000 --> 01:22:31,760
Speaker 1: but it's go going up. Meanwhile, Republicans have always been

1644
01:22:31,760 --> 01:22:36,040
Speaker 1: pointed to the turnout in the primaries. What I think

1645
01:22:36,080 --> 01:22:39,320
Speaker 1: is important to keep in mind here is we have

1646
01:22:39,400 --> 01:22:42,760
Speaker 1: to keep looking at the big picture of the state

1647
01:22:42,800 --> 01:22:47,400
Speaker 1: of Ohio. For example. If you look at that in

1648
01:22:47,479 --> 01:22:52,800
Speaker 1: the Ohio primary, where Republicans outvoted Democrats with something like

1649
01:22:52,880 --> 01:22:56,240
Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of the vote, you know, well jd Vance,

1650
01:22:56,280 --> 01:22:58,040
Speaker 1: you know, may end up winning, but you know he's

1651
01:22:58,080 --> 01:22:59,760
Speaker 1: not going to be winning with you know, sixty eight

1652
01:22:59,800 --> 01:23:03,000
Speaker 1: per uh. But however, I think that does tell me

1653
01:23:03,080 --> 01:23:06,160
Speaker 1: that Ohio, for for example, maybe you built a bit

1654
01:23:06,240 --> 01:23:09,880
Speaker 1: tilted in the Republican direction. So I think we have

1655
01:23:10,000 --> 01:23:12,400
Speaker 1: to keep in mind, you know, this is big picture.

1656
01:23:13,040 --> 01:23:16,720
Speaker 1: In the past, as you said, it's performed well in

1657
01:23:17,160 --> 01:23:20,360
Speaker 1: six it was you know, a fifty four percent democratical

1658
01:23:20,360 --> 01:23:23,000
Speaker 1: collect lecturate. It was about that in eighteen as well.

1659
01:23:23,080 --> 01:23:26,800
Speaker 1: Those were very good Democratic years. Uh. In twenty ten

1660
01:23:26,880 --> 01:23:30,280
Speaker 1: and twenty fourteen, Republicans had you know, a fifty five

1661
01:23:30,360 --> 01:23:32,760
Speaker 1: fifty six percent and advantage and they went on to

1662
01:23:32,800 --> 01:23:35,759
Speaker 1: have a good year. So, you know, I think overall

1663
01:23:35,920 --> 01:23:39,960
Speaker 1: this tells me that this cycle is on track to

1664
01:23:40,040 --> 01:23:42,880
Speaker 1: be maybe you know, our republican leaning year, but you know,

1665
01:23:43,000 --> 01:23:45,879
Speaker 1: maybe not as much as twenty ten or twenty fourteen.

1666
01:23:46,840 --> 01:23:48,320
Speaker 1: And you know, I think if you told a lot

1667
01:23:48,360 --> 01:23:50,720
Speaker 1: of Democrats that at the start of this cycle, when

1668
01:23:50,760 --> 01:23:53,040
Speaker 1: it was looking like a very much a red wave,

1669
01:23:53,880 --> 01:23:56,439
Speaker 1: they would have taken that deal, right, I think you're

1670
01:23:56,479 --> 01:23:59,040
Speaker 1: absolutely correct. So but why does that translate then into

1671
01:23:59,120 --> 01:24:02,920
Speaker 1: close races? It's like, how exactly do you forecast that

1672
01:24:03,120 --> 01:24:05,680
Speaker 1: not twenty ten, not two thousand, you know, not some

1673
01:24:05,840 --> 01:24:09,080
Speaker 1: crazy red wave election, but still you know, slight republican.

1674
01:24:09,240 --> 01:24:11,200
Speaker 1: How does that work on the in some of the

1675
01:24:11,240 --> 01:24:12,880
Speaker 1: more swing states, Like what are some of the things

1676
01:24:12,920 --> 01:24:16,400
Speaker 1: you guys look at there? Yes, so I think I know,

1677
01:24:16,800 --> 01:24:19,599
Speaker 1: not to be selfish, but you're kind of going back

1678
01:24:19,640 --> 01:24:23,080
Speaker 1: to Virginia here, last year. One of the reasons that

1679
01:24:23,640 --> 01:24:29,439
Speaker 1: our governor, the Republican Glenn Youngkin can one is because

1680
01:24:29,479 --> 01:24:33,360
Speaker 1: Republican turnout was super high. That's another thing that really

1681
01:24:33,360 --> 01:24:37,280
Speaker 1: caught my attention about these numbers is, you know, compared

1682
01:24:37,320 --> 01:24:40,679
Speaker 1: to twenty ten and twenty fourteen, which were Obama's rough

1683
01:24:40,720 --> 01:24:44,160
Speaker 1: mid terms, they were very low turnout. Well, guess what,

1684
01:24:44,360 --> 01:24:47,960
Speaker 1: nothing this year suggests to me that twenty twenty two

1685
01:24:48,040 --> 01:24:51,839
Speaker 1: was going to be a low turnout year. So basically,

1686
01:24:51,880 --> 01:24:57,080
Speaker 1: Youngkin one with high Republican turnout. And I think the

1687
01:24:57,200 --> 01:25:01,000
Speaker 1: Roe v. Wade ruling has given Democrats, you know, that

1688
01:25:01,080 --> 01:25:03,880
Speaker 1: may help with their turnout, you know, as I think

1689
01:25:03,880 --> 01:25:08,640
Speaker 1: it was interest in that in this study they divided

1690
01:25:08,680 --> 01:25:12,040
Speaker 1: the states into you know, states that voted for a

1691
01:25:12,160 --> 01:25:15,439
Speaker 1: row and states that voted after row. Uh. Those states

1692
01:25:15,439 --> 01:25:18,679
Speaker 1: that went after you did, you did see Democrats doing

1693
01:25:18,720 --> 01:25:22,920
Speaker 1: a bit better. So, you know, this is something that

1694
01:25:23,000 --> 01:25:27,920
Speaker 1: Democratic candidates in many key states are running on the

1695
01:25:28,000 --> 01:25:32,640
Speaker 1: Supreme Court ruling. Uh, So you know it's something that

1696
01:25:32,760 --> 01:25:36,040
Speaker 1: could maybe help Democratic enthusiasm and a lot of those

1697
01:25:36,120 --> 01:25:40,559
Speaker 1: key rebrak races like you know Pennsylvania or even a Florida. Uh.

1698
01:25:40,600 --> 01:25:43,240
Speaker 1: You know that that's something that Val Deming's is very

1699
01:25:43,320 --> 01:25:45,840
Speaker 1: much trying to run on. Yeah, that's actually a key

1700
01:25:45,880 --> 01:25:48,559
Speaker 1: point is that some of these primaries that are being

1701
01:25:48,560 --> 01:25:52,120
Speaker 1: factored into these mid term turnout numbers, some of these

1702
01:25:52,160 --> 01:25:56,640
Speaker 1: occurred before dubs. So the increased Democratic enthusiam because you know,

1703
01:25:56,640 --> 01:25:58,240
Speaker 1: if you're a Democrat and this is your theory of

1704
01:25:58,280 --> 01:26:01,160
Speaker 1: the case, that sort of the stops to say changed everything,

1705
01:26:01,200 --> 01:26:04,439
Speaker 1: and now we have the enthusiasm, it wouldn't fully factor

1706
01:26:04,479 --> 01:26:07,080
Speaker 1: that change in the landscape. So that is an interesting note.

1707
01:26:07,880 --> 01:26:11,439
Speaker 1: It's been a big conversation lately about how the polls are.

1708
01:26:11,840 --> 01:26:14,519
Speaker 1: We have this every year, you know. Nate Cohen and

1709
01:26:14,560 --> 01:26:17,400
Speaker 1: New York Times we covered here wrote a big analysis

1710
01:26:17,400 --> 01:26:19,320
Speaker 1: that I'm sure you took a look at, saying basically,

1711
01:26:19,320 --> 01:26:21,720
Speaker 1: some of the same warning signs are flashing some of

1712
01:26:21,760 --> 01:26:26,240
Speaker 1: the same states that had big polling misses previously, places

1713
01:26:26,240 --> 01:26:30,000
Speaker 1: like in Ohio and Wisconsin, especially industrial Midwest, especially states

1714
01:26:30,000 --> 01:26:32,960
Speaker 1: with large white working class voters. They seem to be

1715
01:26:33,120 --> 01:26:35,720
Speaker 1: coming out with poles now that are at odds with

1716
01:26:35,760 --> 01:26:39,439
Speaker 1: what some of the other fundamentals might predict in those races.

1717
01:26:40,200 --> 01:26:43,040
Speaker 1: How are you analyzing the state of the polls how

1718
01:26:43,040 --> 01:26:45,840
Speaker 1: are you factoring those in when you're doing your own

1719
01:26:46,400 --> 01:26:50,040
Speaker 1: you know, prognostications and analysis of these races. Yeah, it's

1720
01:26:50,040 --> 01:26:52,679
Speaker 1: funny because you know, us in the forecast in world.

1721
01:26:52,680 --> 01:26:54,880
Speaker 1: You know, I think there's that there's sort of that

1722
01:26:55,880 --> 01:26:58,240
Speaker 1: there's kind of that military phrase that you know, you're

1723
01:26:58,280 --> 01:27:01,280
Speaker 1: always finding yesterday's war. I mean, that's kind of what

1724
01:27:01,320 --> 01:27:04,200
Speaker 1: we're doing, you know, looking at twenty ten and twenty sixteen.

1725
01:27:05,040 --> 01:27:08,439
Speaker 1: But actually there there was an interesting piece out today

1726
01:27:08,560 --> 01:27:13,000
Speaker 1: by the other Nate Nate Silver in five or thirty eight,

1727
01:27:13,040 --> 01:27:14,920
Speaker 1: and you know, one thing he was saying is, you know,

1728
01:27:15,080 --> 01:27:20,559
Speaker 1: the the polling misses haven't been you know, uniform from

1729
01:27:20,600 --> 01:27:24,040
Speaker 1: cycle recycle. You know, back when Obama was running for

1730
01:27:24,080 --> 01:27:28,960
Speaker 1: re election back in twenty twelve, Poles tended to underestimate him,

1731
01:27:29,280 --> 01:27:31,280
Speaker 1: but no one really noticed because you know, he was

1732
01:27:31,360 --> 01:27:35,200
Speaker 1: kind of on track to win anyway. So it's it's

1733
01:27:35,200 --> 01:27:37,920
Speaker 1: been funny this year because kind of as you said, Crystal,

1734
01:27:38,120 --> 01:27:41,520
Speaker 1: you know, no one trusts polls from the industrial Midwest.

1735
01:27:41,680 --> 01:27:45,120
Speaker 1: I mean that's like the no pull zone almost. So

1736
01:27:45,240 --> 01:27:47,320
Speaker 1: you know, for us, you know, we tried to look

1737
01:27:47,360 --> 01:27:51,280
Speaker 1: at other factors like okay, well, how much is each

1738
01:27:51,360 --> 01:27:55,760
Speaker 1: party spending in each state, I mean your you know,

1739
01:27:55,840 --> 01:27:58,200
Speaker 1: as they say, kind of in a lot of these races,

1740
01:27:58,240 --> 01:28:01,439
Speaker 1: it's the money that ends up talking. So that's what

1741
01:28:01,520 --> 01:28:04,560
Speaker 1: we track as well. What I'm interested to say is,

1742
01:28:04,640 --> 01:28:08,280
Speaker 1: you know, as as especially because of the polling misses

1743
01:28:08,320 --> 01:28:11,120
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty twenty, how much of

1744
01:28:11,160 --> 01:28:14,040
Speaker 1: that was Trump being on the ballot? What was sort

1745
01:28:14,040 --> 01:28:19,639
Speaker 1: of an interesting case in Georgia back last year when

1746
01:28:19,640 --> 01:28:22,719
Speaker 1: they had those runoffs, Not a lot of pollsters wanted

1747
01:28:22,720 --> 01:28:25,120
Speaker 1: to touch those bryanhoffs because they were sort of a

1748
01:28:25,160 --> 01:28:29,639
Speaker 1: weird situation right in early January. Uh, if you look

1749
01:28:29,680 --> 01:28:34,000
Speaker 1: at the averages, the Georgia runoff polling was actually decent.

1750
01:28:34,160 --> 01:28:36,479
Speaker 1: So I'm wondering, you know, how much of that is

1751
01:28:36,520 --> 01:28:39,519
Speaker 1: Trump being off of the ballot. That's interesting, Yeah, that's

1752
01:28:39,560 --> 01:28:41,720
Speaker 1: the I think about this all the time, Miles. I'm like,

1753
01:28:41,880 --> 01:28:45,760
Speaker 1: is Trump the confounding variable or when he's off and like,

1754
01:28:45,960 --> 01:28:48,080
Speaker 1: when he's off the ballot, does it actually mean poles

1755
01:28:48,120 --> 01:28:51,880
Speaker 1: quote unquote revert to the mean or are did twenty

1756
01:28:51,960 --> 01:28:55,759
Speaker 1: sixteen just like mean some sort of crazy demarcation point

1757
01:28:56,120 --> 01:28:58,559
Speaker 1: for all of polling. I found it useful to look

1758
01:28:58,600 --> 01:29:01,040
Speaker 1: at some issues like the ECO to me and others

1759
01:29:01,040 --> 01:29:03,679
Speaker 1: like who's trusted on those? Because those were pretty good

1760
01:29:03,720 --> 01:29:07,200
Speaker 1: proxies for the results in twenty twenty? Am I doing

1761
01:29:07,200 --> 01:29:08,720
Speaker 1: the right thing? Like? What are some other things that

1762
01:29:08,760 --> 01:29:10,920
Speaker 1: you guys look at like that? Yeah, that's you know

1763
01:29:12,280 --> 01:29:16,840
Speaker 1: what I looked at for a while. In presidential elections,

1764
01:29:16,880 --> 01:29:20,479
Speaker 1: in the exit polls, there was always a question they

1765
01:29:20,520 --> 01:29:24,040
Speaker 1: asked on exact polls, you know which candidate cares more

1766
01:29:24,040 --> 01:29:27,719
Speaker 1: about people like me? It was that candidate who would

1767
01:29:27,720 --> 01:29:32,439
Speaker 1: almost always win. So you know, I think, I think

1768
01:29:32,479 --> 01:29:35,639
Speaker 1: definitely the Democrats are trying to run on that abortion

1769
01:29:35,800 --> 01:29:39,719
Speaker 1: issue as we saw, as we saw in the special

1770
01:29:39,760 --> 01:29:43,240
Speaker 1: election for New York nineteen, that's what Congressman now Ryan

1771
01:29:44,400 --> 01:29:49,280
Speaker 1: run ran on. And I think something I'm taking away

1772
01:29:49,439 --> 01:29:54,439
Speaker 1: from the from the abortion issue specifically. There there was

1773
01:29:54,479 --> 01:29:59,080
Speaker 1: a poll from Quinnipiac I think last week that they

1774
01:29:59,160 --> 01:30:03,960
Speaker 1: asked about specific issues, and yes, the economy was still

1775
01:30:04,080 --> 01:30:08,400
Speaker 1: the sort of top issue, but abortion was next, and

1776
01:30:08,439 --> 01:30:11,880
Speaker 1: they asked voters, Okay, well, how important is it that

1777
01:30:11,920 --> 01:30:14,920
Speaker 1: a candidate shares your stance on abortion? Most of the

1778
01:30:15,000 --> 01:30:19,240
Speaker 1: voters who said yes were those college educated white voters

1779
01:30:19,240 --> 01:30:23,559
Speaker 1: that have trended more Democrat. So that tells me, you know,

1780
01:30:23,680 --> 01:30:26,720
Speaker 1: even if Democrats have a rough midterm, you know, I

1781
01:30:26,760 --> 01:30:30,160
Speaker 1: can see them holding their own in those more college

1782
01:30:30,280 --> 01:30:35,000
Speaker 1: educated states like New Hampshire or New Jersey states like that.

1783
01:30:35,000 --> 01:30:37,840
Speaker 1: That's interesting. Yeah, you're talking about that metric of like

1784
01:30:37,920 --> 01:30:40,080
Speaker 1: who cares about me more. We were looking at pulling

1785
01:30:40,080 --> 01:30:43,000
Speaker 1: out of Pennsylvania, where it wasn't exactly the same question,

1786
01:30:43,040 --> 01:30:45,320
Speaker 1: but they asked voters if they thought that Fetterman said

1787
01:30:45,360 --> 01:30:48,040
Speaker 1: what he believed or was just like saying what he

1788
01:30:48,080 --> 01:30:50,679
Speaker 1: thought people wanted to hear, you know, same thing with Oz,

1789
01:30:50,720 --> 01:30:54,840
Speaker 1: same question, and overwhelmingly voters was like seventy percent thought

1790
01:30:54,880 --> 01:30:56,880
Speaker 1: Oz was just telling them whatever they wanted to hear.

1791
01:30:57,280 --> 01:30:59,479
Speaker 1: And to me, that was almost as significant a result

1792
01:30:59,520 --> 01:31:01,760
Speaker 1: as any of the other polling numbers that came out

1793
01:31:01,800 --> 01:31:03,960
Speaker 1: of that, especially since it was so lopside. I thought, Oh,

1794
01:31:03,960 --> 01:31:06,080
Speaker 1: they just think this guy's really full of it, and

1795
01:31:06,120 --> 01:31:08,400
Speaker 1: that could be an issue that for him ultimately in

1796
01:31:08,479 --> 01:31:11,080
Speaker 1: terms of, you know, when it comes time to vote,

1797
01:31:11,640 --> 01:31:14,000
Speaker 1: what based on all of the factors that we've talked

1798
01:31:14,040 --> 01:31:17,800
Speaker 1: about here, midterm turnout, the polls, the special elections, all

1799
01:31:17,840 --> 01:31:21,080
Speaker 1: of these things what reasons do you think that control

1800
01:31:21,160 --> 01:31:23,080
Speaker 1: of the Senate is really going to come down to?

1801
01:31:23,200 --> 01:31:25,960
Speaker 1: What are the like true toss up states that you're

1802
01:31:26,000 --> 01:31:30,120
Speaker 1: looking at right now? Well, just very quickly, Crystal on

1803
01:31:30,200 --> 01:31:33,679
Speaker 1: that point about doctor Oz. I mean, wasn't it over

1804
01:31:33,720 --> 01:31:36,680
Speaker 1: this weekend where Trump was talking about JD. Evans and

1805
01:31:36,720 --> 01:31:38,280
Speaker 1: He's like, yeah, he just kisses my ass. You know,

1806
01:31:38,360 --> 01:31:45,600
Speaker 1: that's that's hilarious. I see that. But in terms of

1807
01:31:45,640 --> 01:31:49,240
Speaker 1: the states we're looking at, there were two polls out

1808
01:31:49,360 --> 01:31:53,000
Speaker 1: this morning from the state of Georgia. One from the

1809
01:31:53,040 --> 01:31:56,439
Speaker 1: Atlanta Journal Constitution had Worn Off, you know, slightly down,

1810
01:31:56,800 --> 01:32:00,280
Speaker 1: another from Marist had him slightly up. You know, I

1811
01:32:00,320 --> 01:32:03,040
Speaker 1: think it wouldn't be crazy if this was the second

1812
01:32:03,120 --> 01:32:07,880
Speaker 1: cycling in a row where control of the Senate goes

1813
01:32:07,920 --> 01:32:11,440
Speaker 1: to a Georgia runoff. Wow, you know that that's definitely

1814
01:32:11,439 --> 01:32:15,160
Speaker 1: in the cards. We at the Crystal Ball. We did

1815
01:32:15,200 --> 01:32:19,360
Speaker 1: move a few races recently in favor of Democrats. We

1816
01:32:19,439 --> 01:32:22,880
Speaker 1: moved that Pennsylvania race a few weeks ago from toss

1817
01:32:22,960 --> 01:32:25,439
Speaker 1: up to Lean's Dawn Democratic. You know, we think Oz,

1818
01:32:25,560 --> 01:32:29,000
Speaker 1: you know, is at at least a slight disadvantage right now.

1819
01:32:29,560 --> 01:32:32,000
Speaker 1: We think Mark Kelly at least right now is looking

1820
01:32:32,040 --> 01:32:36,120
Speaker 1: decently in Arizona. One state that we've been sort of

1821
01:32:36,280 --> 01:32:38,840
Speaker 1: bearish on for Democrats but we still haven't in a

1822
01:32:38,880 --> 01:32:43,000
Speaker 1: toss up category is Nevada. That's a state that's been

1823
01:32:43,080 --> 01:32:47,360
Speaker 1: sort of unpredictable in recent cycles, unlike a lot of

1824
01:32:47,439 --> 01:32:52,280
Speaker 1: blue states. You know, I was talking about voters who

1825
01:32:52,280 --> 01:32:57,240
Speaker 1: are more educated being sort of trended towards Democrats. Nevada

1826
01:32:57,320 --> 01:33:01,719
Speaker 1: is a more working class state, so you know, think

1827
01:33:01,760 --> 01:33:04,200
Speaker 1: about what the Democratic base is there. You know, it's

1828
01:33:04,200 --> 01:33:09,120
Speaker 1: basically tourism workers, it's basically culinary workers, more kind of

1829
01:33:09,160 --> 01:33:11,960
Speaker 1: working class. Well, you know, if the economy is more

1830
01:33:12,000 --> 01:33:15,120
Speaker 1: of an issue, there are those voters going to field

1831
01:33:15,160 --> 01:33:19,320
Speaker 1: a bit more, a bit more Republicans. So I would

1832
01:33:19,320 --> 01:33:23,280
Speaker 1: say those states, you know, it's I've noticed Democrats are

1833
01:33:23,320 --> 01:33:25,519
Speaker 1: trying to make plays in these kind of light red

1834
01:33:25,560 --> 01:33:30,559
Speaker 1: states like Wisconsin or North Carolina, even in Ohio. So

1835
01:33:30,640 --> 01:33:32,479
Speaker 1: you know, we'll we'll see if those come into to

1836
01:33:32,560 --> 01:33:34,320
Speaker 1: play as well. But we sort of have those in

1837
01:33:34,360 --> 01:33:38,800
Speaker 1: the leans Republican category. Yeah, skeptical on those ones. Thank

1838
01:33:38,880 --> 01:33:41,040
Speaker 1: you so much for the breakdown, super helpful. I was

1839
01:33:41,080 --> 01:33:43,760
Speaker 1: great to see you Myles. Thanks Miles, appreciate it. Yeah,

1840
01:33:43,760 --> 01:33:46,760
Speaker 1: our pleasure, see you later. Thanks so much for watching. Guys,

1841
01:33:46,920 --> 01:33:49,200
Speaker 1: really appreciate it. So, as we said, we got the

1842
01:33:49,280 --> 01:33:51,720
Speaker 1: Chicago tickets. They're on sale. Please buy them if you're

1843
01:33:51,760 --> 01:33:54,479
Speaker 1: somewhere in the Midwest or not. You can come from anywhere,

1844
01:33:54,520 --> 01:33:58,080
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1845
01:33:58,120 --> 01:34:01,000
Speaker 1: It's a fun time. It's a welcoming community at whichever

1846
01:34:01,080 --> 01:34:03,479
Speaker 1: one of these shows that you will join us at.

1847
01:34:03,520 --> 01:34:05,719
Speaker 1: And we've got some special merch that will be sold

1848
01:34:05,720 --> 01:34:07,400
Speaker 1: there to which we're working on right now. That will

1849
01:34:07,439 --> 01:34:09,559
Speaker 1: be fun. And we've got the discount right now for

1850
01:34:09,640 --> 01:34:12,560
Speaker 1: Counterpoints ten percent off up until October fifth. Lots of

1851
01:34:12,600 --> 01:34:15,400
Speaker 1: people are capitalizing that. It's so so helpful to us

1852
01:34:15,439 --> 01:34:17,519
Speaker 1: here at the show. We have great content for everybody

1853
01:34:17,520 --> 01:34:20,000
Speaker 1: on Wednesday. We've got great content for everybody on Friday.

1854
01:34:20,120 --> 01:34:22,559
Speaker 1: It's very happy for me to say that. And we

1855
01:34:22,560 --> 01:34:40,720
Speaker 1: will see you all on Thursday. Love y'all, See you Thursday.