Speaker 1: American consumer sentiment is now at a six month low.
Speaker 1: People are pulling back quote on all kinds of purchases.
Speaker 1: This is the biggest drop since twenty twenty one, quote,
Speaker 1: reflecting the persistent tug of inflation on household budgets, feeling
Speaker 1: fewer fears of rising prices, unemployment, and interest rates that
Speaker 1: will all worsen in the coming months. Already, spending habits
Speaker 1: are rapidly altering. They say that McDonald's, home Depot, under Armour,
Speaker 1: and Starbucks are all reporting disappointing earnings. People are coming
Speaker 1: back on fast food, kitchen renovations, sneakers, afternoon lattes, basically
Speaker 1: anything which is a sign of big times are decent
Speaker 1: right now. Retail sales flat from April after there was
Speaker 1: limited amount of pickup in February and March. Walmart is
Speaker 1: reporting its strongest quarter this week, which is being nudged
Speaker 1: by high income shoppers whose income is reducing shopping. Walmart
Speaker 1: is recession proof for a reason, and when they're booming,
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily a good thing for all of us. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: gas prices are backup. We were looking remember at Nevada
Speaker 1: in California. California is still somehow five dollars fifty cents
Speaker 1: a gallon average in the entire state.
Speaker 2: It's insane. I don't even know how people live there.
Speaker 1: And then you know, you continue to look through all
Speaker 1: of this, and the consumer spending, which is two thirds
Speaker 1: of our US economy, reducing by even a single percentage
Speaker 1: point is millions, and you know, millions of jobs are affected,
Speaker 1: billions hundreds of billions of dollars in commerce, and all
Speaker 1: of this is happening ahead of the US election. Things
Speaker 1: are actually getting worse. We're also in a very interesting
Speaker 1: time Crystal, where we can compare directly the records of
Speaker 1: two successive presidents and actually vote based on those two. Now, look,
Speaker 1: I will be the first to say the economy is
Speaker 1: very complicated. The president doesn't necessarily run everything, but people
Speaker 1: in general tend to get credit for it, and they
Speaker 1: tend to get credit for what the message is about
Speaker 1: what they seem to be aligned with in terms of
Speaker 1: what they may do for you were others, and I
Speaker 1: think with Biden right now, like any economic message has
Speaker 1: long been you know, basically consumed by foreign affairs, neither
Speaker 1: of which are going very well abroad.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So put the next piece up on the screen
Speaker 3: and Sager, I want you to explain this too, because
Speaker 3: you found this, and I mean, listen, here's the thing.
Speaker 3: We have been gas lit by the Biden people and
Speaker 3: many media figures into thinking that Americans just don't understand
Speaker 3: how good they got it under Joe Biden. Look at
Speaker 3: the low unemployment rate, look at the high stock market,
Speaker 3: blah blah blah. This chart right here really blows up
Speaker 3: all of those narratives about how great and amazing the
Speaker 3: economy is and how ungrateful we are to the Biden
Speaker 3: administration for creating this. You know, this incredible Ford state.
Speaker 1: So let's keep this up please while I explain. So,
Speaker 1: we have change in household networks since the start of presidency.
Speaker 1: We have it in nominal and then adjusted for inflation.
Speaker 1: So nominally, forty eight months into the Trump administration, America
Speaker 1: net worth was up by about forty percent. Now, under
Speaker 1: the Biden administration, this would be consistent with Bidenomics, they
Speaker 1: would say, thirty six months into our presidency, American net
Speaker 1: worth is nominally up twenty percent, So you have more money, right,
Speaker 1: you should be happy.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no no. Look at the graph right next
Speaker 2: to it. For those who are watching.
Speaker 1: When you adjust for inflation, forty eight months into the
Speaker 1: Trump administration, American net worth adjusted for inflation was up
Speaker 1: by twenty or about thirty percent. If you adjust for
Speaker 1: inflation and you look at the Biden administration, American net
Speaker 1: worth is up by zero point seven percent from the
Speaker 1: baseline of when he took office in January of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one. And in fact, a significant portion of the
Speaker 1: Biden presidency has seen a reduction in net worth when
Speaker 1: you were of been adjusted for inflation. Now tying it
Speaker 1: back to what I was talking about, what happened right
Speaker 1: there twelve to eighteen months when we began to see
Speaker 1: the dip crystal that was the Afghanistan and the invasion
Speaker 1: of Ukraine. So the invasion of Ukraine some two to
Speaker 1: so years ago is exactly what tanked the entire US
Speaker 1: economy and which all of us had to pay a
Speaker 1: higher tax and gas prices and reduction in net worth from,
Speaker 1: in addition to the geopolitical instability that was unleashed. In addition,
Speaker 1: you've seen a slight dip there route several months ago
Speaker 1: where what happened Israel the Red Sea where we all
Speaker 1: again paid the Israel tax in the Red Sea with
Speaker 1: the Huthis. So we've had two successive foreign conflicts in
Speaker 1: addition to massive inflation which happened for a variety of
Speaker 1: reasons and just a general drift of the Biden administration.
Speaker 1: Where zero point seven percent increase from where you were
Speaker 1: compared to a thirty percent increase adjusted for inflation. That
Speaker 1: is the first time too, that you really have inflation
Speaker 1: hit you in the face. Where nominally you're up by
Speaker 1: almost twenty percent, but inflation adjusted, it's basically.
Speaker 4: Maybe nothing matter.
Speaker 1: You're treading nothing. In three you have made no money.
Speaker 1: That is horrible. Now, look, I understand it's a short
Speaker 1: period of time, etc. Butt it's a four year you know,
Speaker 1: we vote in four year incidents or four year increments,
Speaker 1: and it is undeniable to compare those two records. I'd
Speaker 1: also be remaced by the endpoint out all those COVID
Speaker 1: gains that happened there, right, how people really benefited?
Speaker 4: Well, I want to dig in on that.
Speaker 3: It put the back up on the screen because that
Speaker 3: is actually probably the most consequential part of this graph.
Speaker 3: Is right when you see that huge spike in net worth,
Speaker 3: guess what that was when you had checks going out.
Speaker 3: Child tax Credit was maybe the most significant of the
Speaker 3: COVID era programs. You had the quote unquote super doll
Speaker 3: where people could we're getting.
Speaker 4: Extra cash on unemployment. You had the PPP loans going out.
Speaker 3: I mean, you had an extraordinary expansion of the social
Speaker 3: safety net to cope with COVID and guess.
Speaker 4: What, it worked. It worked. It really helped people a lot.
Speaker 3: And something I've been talking about this whole time is
Speaker 3: one of the economic stories of the Biden administration is
Speaker 3: the continued rolling back of those social safety net programs.
Speaker 3: So you had this expansion that really helped people really
Speaker 3: increase their networks. We saw it in terms of bank
Speaker 3: account sizes, you know, ballooning and the way that that
Speaker 3: got spent down the minute they start rolling back those programs.
Speaker 3: Even something like the child tax Credit, where the thought
Speaker 3: was that this was going to be a long term program.
Speaker 3: Ultimately Democrats didn't really expend a lot of political capital
Speaker 3: to try to keep that going, and Republicans weren't interested
Speaker 3: in trying to keep it going.
Speaker 4: So you have all of that rolled back.
Speaker 3: At the same time that you have elevated inflation, significant
Speaker 3: inflation which came from I think you know, the foreign conflicts,
Speaker 3: that's part of it.
Speaker 4: We also have more and.
Speaker 3: More indications that a significant, if not a majority, chunk
Speaker 3: of it was also corporate grade and price gouging. And so,
Speaker 3: you know, from both a reality from a political perspective,
Speaker 3: a much better approach from the Biden administration would.
Speaker 4: Be to talk about that.
Speaker 3: Talk about the fact that we just learned these oil
Speaker 3: companies were colluding in cartel like fashion to price gouge
Speaker 3: American consumers and rip them off to the tune of
Speaker 3: thousands of dollars per family. That gas inflation, they increase
Speaker 3: in the gas cost.
Speaker 4: That trickles. As you guys know, that has an impact
Speaker 4: throughout the economy.
Speaker 3: It's a huge impact to the bottom line of American households.
Speaker 3: So tell that story and more importantly, do something about it,
Speaker 3: Do something about the price gouging and the greedflation. And
Speaker 3: you know, obviously the ship sailed in terms of the
Speaker 3: expansion of the social safety net and trying to you know,
Speaker 3: keep some of those gains and continue to build from there.
Speaker 3: But what this tells you is that people are not crazy.
Speaker 3: They are right to feel like things are not going
Speaker 3: as well for me as they once were. And so
Speaker 3: then when you see the approval ratings on the economy
Speaker 3: and all these Biden flags out there, like, I don't
Speaker 3: know what.
Speaker 4: You're talking about.
Speaker 3: It's amazing and you guys just don't understand or maybe
Speaker 3: the media is too negative about Joe Biden or whatever. No,
Speaker 3: people know what is happening in their own lives and
Speaker 3: could have told you previously without needing this chart what
Speaker 3: that has looked like for them and their bank accounts specifically.
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, gas lighting folks trying to give them fake
Speaker 1: statistics and all that.
Speaker 2: It's very clear.
Speaker 1: I would look in terms of inflation, you know, the inevitable, Well,
Speaker 1: they would say that the COVID programs.
Speaker 2: Of the what caused inflation?
Speaker 1: Now did increase like you called it the superdol and
Speaker 1: all that, did it increase inflation? It's possible. We actually
Speaker 1: still don't really know what exactly it is. I would
Speaker 1: be stupid, I think, to say that it had no role.
Speaker 1: But we can certainly say that supply side factors driven
Speaker 1: by COVID massively had an impact on the initial inflation
Speaker 1: that the economy experience. And I would contend that the
Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine and US policy Visa v. Russia massively
Speaker 1: accelerated that inflation, and we see that in the reduction
Speaker 1: of net worth. Now on top of that, we've had
Speaker 1: persistent inflation in our economy even though consumer spending and
Speaker 1: overall debt has significantly increased. So that means that we've
Speaker 1: had corporate behavior that is very responsible for a lot of.
Speaker 2: The things that we see.
Speaker 1: We also know that very unfortunately that in certain sectors
Speaker 1: that the inflation has been very supply side driven. So
Speaker 1: for example, in housing, that's one of the major drivers
Speaker 1: today of inflation is rent is. Rental inflation is one
Speaker 1: of the biggest ones. Interest rates too, we cannot underestimate
Speaker 1: in terms of how it has failed completely to achieve
Speaker 1: its overall goal. The initial you know, FED and all
Speaker 1: that belief that they would be able to crush inflation
Speaker 1: with high interest rates, but that's only done if it
Speaker 1: is purely a demand side.
Speaker 2: That's just not the case.
Speaker 1: So we don't have the tools really that are at
Speaker 1: our disposal to deal with inflation the way that it's
Speaker 1: actually happening right now today in the economy. But that
Speaker 1: does not erase the fact that it's just miserable. It's
Speaker 1: miserable out there we've had I think you said something
Speaker 1: something about second mortgages or making it huge comeback.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, yeah, that's a story to Kyvi.
Speaker 3: Yeah, all these people who thought they had these loan
Speaker 3: modifications and second mortgages that were canceled in two thousand and eight,
Speaker 3: Well they weren't actually canceled. These other like unscrupulos. Basically
Speaker 3: companies bought them up. And now that housing prices are
Speaker 3: so high, it finally makes sense for them from a
Speaker 3: profitability standpoint to be like, oh, guess, by the way,
Speaker 3: you owe me two hundred grand if you can't pay
Speaker 3: them for closing on your house. So this is happening
Speaker 3: in two thousands of thousands of people. It's like an
Speaker 3: overhang from two thousand and eight. It's totally insane predatory behavior.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's horrible.
Speaker 1: And you know what can we take away from that
Speaker 1: is that, in general, you know, from the economy right now,
Speaker 1: it's not in a healthy place.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I would say again for Biden, he could survive it.
Speaker 1: He survived a bad economy in twenty twenty two. It's
Speaker 1: not like this is completely the end all be all,
Speaker 1: given what's happened with abortion and with Trump chaos and
Speaker 1: all that. But if I had the hazard to guess,
Speaker 1: if Donald Trump wins the presidency again, it will largely
Speaker 1: be because of that graph. His ratings on the economy
Speaker 1: are just sky high compared to Biden. In fact, an
Speaker 1: outright majority of people say that they were better off
Speaker 1: under Trump than they were Biden. And in general, old
Speaker 1: political rules would say that person is going to win
Speaker 1: the election.
Speaker 2: That's generally what we know.
Speaker 3: Like you said, who knows right now? It looks like
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is winning though, I mean, I think that's
Speaker 3: where the polls certainly suggest the races at this point.
Speaker 3: And just to tie it back to what we were
Speaker 3: saying before, you know, when you couple the fact that
Speaker 3: people are feeling a lot of pain in their own
Speaker 3: lives and their accurate perception that the political class is
Speaker 3: completely dismissive and contemptfull of their concerns and laser focused
Speaker 3: to the exclusion of almost everything else, on shipping billions
Speaker 3: of dollars to you know, continue to bomb the Gaza
Speaker 3: strip and continue an indefinite war in Ukraine with no
Speaker 3: end in sight. I mean, they're correct in perceiving that
Speaker 3: reality and their right to be outraged about it their
Speaker 3: right to be outraged about it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree. Let's get to the next part.
Speaker 1: This was a horrible story that Emily did a great
Speaker 1: job of breaking down for everybody. There was some video
Speaker 1: that leaked of a twenty sixteen incident where Diddy was
Speaker 1: literally caught on camera absolutely wailing and beating on his
Speaker 1: girlfriend at the time, Cassie Well. He has now released
Speaker 1: a response and apology. I guess if you will, Let's
Speaker 1: take a listen.
Speaker 5: It's so difficult to reflect on the darkest times in
Speaker 5: your life. Sometimes you gotta do that. I was fucked up.
Speaker 5: I mean, I hit rock bottom, but I make no excuses.
Speaker 5: My behavior on that video is inexcusable. I take full
Speaker 5: responsibility for my actions in that video. Disgusted. I was
Speaker 5: disgusted then when I did it. I'm disgusted now when
Speaker 5: and I saw our professional help God to go into therapy.
Speaker 5: I'm going to rehab. Had asked God for his mercy
Speaker 5: and grace. I'm so sorry, but I'm committed to be
Speaker 5: a better managent every day. I'm not asking for forgiveness.
Speaker 5: I'm truly sorry.
Speaker 1: So he said he's not offering excuses, but he's also
Speaker 1: saying that he was what is this? What did he
Speaker 1: say is that I was messed up. I was on
Speaker 1: a lot of stuff. Since he's gone to therapy obviously. Also,
Speaker 1: he only apologized after the video came out publicly. Right,
Speaker 1: let's just play the video and get now. Look, let
Speaker 1: me give a warning, you know, for everybody who has
Speaker 1: seen this, especially if you're a victim of domestic violence.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is this is like the most insane
Speaker 1: thing that I've seen, and it's shocking that it took
Speaker 1: so long for this to actually come out. This is
Speaker 1: March of twenty sixteen. I mean it's more seven years
Speaker 1: ago or so. Here you see him literally, you know,
Speaker 1: in a towel, just absolutely, I mean he's a hitting her,
Speaker 1: it's so badly, dragging her down the hallway. This was
Speaker 1: in a public area that was caught completely on camera.
Speaker 1: Obviously the hotel had possession of it. You know, why
Speaker 1: didn't the police do anything about it? And by the way, oh,
Speaker 1: just conveniently, let's put this up there please. We are
Speaker 1: now passed the statue of limitations and he can't be
Speaker 1: charged for it. So you know, they had this on
Speaker 1: camera at the time. There was longtime allegations here of
Speaker 1: this man's behavior. Video doesn't come out. How come the
Speaker 1: police never investigated it? Did he report it to somebody
Speaker 1: to pay somebody off, you know, inside of there? And
Speaker 1: then it only validates too a lot of what Cassie
Speaker 1: has been saying, Yes in her allegation.
Speaker 2: That's right.
Speaker 3: In fact, in her filing, which he settled with her
Speaker 3: the day after she filed her allegations against him, and
Speaker 3: a lot of people were pointing out she described this
Speaker 3: particular horrifying incident blow by blow by blow coming out
Speaker 3: of the hotel, her trying to flee him, coming out,
Speaker 3: him hitting her, throwing her to the ground, kicking her,
Speaker 3: throwing glass faces at her, dragging her back into the room.
Speaker 3: But it's really important to keep in mind this is
Speaker 3: far from all she said that he did to her
Speaker 3: over years years, including blowing up the car of Kid Cutty,
Speaker 3: who she was involved with at the time. And we've
Speaker 3: done prior segments. There's actually a lot that is on
Speaker 3: the record about violence with regards to ditty things that
Speaker 3: you know, were public at the time that everyone just
Speaker 3: sort of ignored and moved past. But she's also not
Speaker 3: the only one who's making these sorts of allegations against Ditty.
Speaker 3: And again we're not talking about one, Oh my bad,
Speaker 3: I was going through a bad stretch one day, not
Speaker 3: that that would be excusable anyway. We're talking about years
Speaker 3: of sociopathic violence, sexual abuse, manipulation and control, horrifying allegations
Speaker 3: over years. And so when you see this video come out,
Speaker 3: and like I said, it matches detail for detail, exactly
Speaker 3: what Cassie said happened, gives a lot of credence to
Speaker 3: everything else that everyone's been saying has been going on
Speaker 3: with him. This also, as you know, federal agents rated
Speaker 3: two of his properties. I also would be remiss if
Speaker 3: I didn't note the tropical appearing background in his video.
Speaker 3: Many people wondering if he has already fled to some
Speaker 3: non extraditable location.
Speaker 4: Big question marks there. For her part, Cassie.
Speaker 3: Has issued a statement can put this up on the
Speaker 3: screen from Rolling Stone. Lawyer for Cassie said in a
Speaker 3: statement following this quote unquote apology video that he was
Speaker 3: only compelled to apologize once his repeated denials were proven false.
Speaker 3: Shows his pathetic desperation and no one will be swayed
Speaker 3: by his disingenuous words. And I think that's very well said,
Speaker 3: because up until this point, up until it was totally undeniable,
Speaker 3: he was denying it. He was claiming none of this happened.
Speaker 3: But you know the fact that you, Cassie was the
Speaker 3: first one to make these allegations really open the floodgates.
Speaker 3: And now you clearly have federal scrutinies. So we'll see
Speaker 3: where it goes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: But I mean the big question is is why did
Speaker 1: it take so long? And this gets back to the
Speaker 1: cover up of what happened inside of LAPD, what strings
Speaker 1: were pulled?
Speaker 2: Were the Feds involved?
Speaker 1: I mean, that's some of the bigger allegations here, is
Speaker 1: that basically there was some like deal or something going
Speaker 1: on where he was effectively protected from something like imagine
Speaker 1: if any normal person did that in a public hotel room.
Speaker 3: We see this was a little I mean, how many
Speaker 3: Harvey went and see all these people that you know,
Speaker 3: because they're wealthy and famous and powerful, they got away.
Speaker 4: Bill Cosby got away with it for years and years
Speaker 4: and years.
Speaker 3: And then you also ask yourself, like there were rumors
Speaker 3: of this sort of thing with Diddy going around for
Speaker 3: a while.
Speaker 2: Twenty years, Yeah.
Speaker 3: How many people knew how many were in his circle
Speaker 3: and saw this behavior and did nothing and said nothing
Speaker 3: and directly enabled it.
Speaker 1: How many people we'll see, hopefully that we will actually
Speaker 1: find out. Okay, thank you guys so much for watching.
Speaker 1: We're gonna have a great show for everybody tomorrow. As
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Speaker 1: though we're really excited by the response, we appreciate and
Speaker 1: we love you, and big things that are coming in
Speaker 1: the future.
Speaker 2: Still, we'll see you later.