1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Runt you by Bank of America Mary Lynch. With virtual reality, 2 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 1: virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world. 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: Be of a, mL dot Com, slash VR, Mary Lynch, 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 6 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: insight from the best of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 7 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 8 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg. Joining us now in 9 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: our Bloomberg eleven three studios is William Lee. Bill is 10 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: the chief economist at the Milk And Institute. It's great 11 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: heavy with us here. Let me start with these two 12 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: Italian banks. I will not torture the audio been trying 13 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: to pronounce them, but I want to talk to you 14 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 1: about regulation here in the US. But let's let's start broader. 15 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: Let's start with the message. This sends. This, this Italian 16 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 1: bailout sends about how the regulatory landscape looks at looks 17 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 1: in Europe, and the regulators are trying to fix the 18 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: European banking to somebody saying you look we've gotta get 19 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,479 Speaker 1: bail in, we gotta get the stakeholders. It really care 20 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 1: about the banks, and so they want the management to 21 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: say we're gonna do better banking, We're to give better loans, 22 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: and the stakeholders have got to make sure the management 23 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 1: does that. What this signal says is that you know, 24 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: next time, not right now, that we're gonna do the 25 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: old good bank bank bang bad bank model. We'll give 26 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: the good assets to in Tessa and and for the 27 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 1: bad banks, you know, bad assets, we're going to have 28 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: the taxpayer take care of it. That just raises moral 29 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: hazard and and as a model for the rest of 30 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,759 Speaker 1: the European Union and the banking system there, it's it's 31 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: a terrible precedent. And I think one of the things 32 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: that the regulators have to get act their act together 33 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: about is do you really seriously mean the policies that 34 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: you're putting in place, and if you do so, stay 35 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: with them, make sure that that that you have some 36 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: credibility being formed right now, the Italians have really gone 37 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: backwards or actually know what. It's probably good for the Italians, 38 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: but it's allows you for the rest of your area, 39 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: and and and the regulators in the rest of the 40 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 1: Europe are going to say, my god, what are these 41 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:16,079 Speaker 1: knuckleheads doing? We we had a spirited discussion last week 42 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: Bob Siler was too to my right across from him 43 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 1: with Peter Wallison in the American Enterprise Institute. We're talking 44 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 1: about Dodd Frank and how financial regulation looks today low 45 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: these many years after the financial crisis. And something that 46 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: Professor Sheiler said that struck me as interesting is it's 47 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: hard to assess the efficacy of this law because it 48 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: hasn't really been tested in many ways. Yet, you don't 49 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 1: know how it's going to work when we have another 50 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 1: crisis or we have the need for uh, you know, 51 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: when when banks are in another precarious positions they happen. 52 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: Where do you where do you see the status of 53 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: Dodd Frank? Can you begin to assess its efficacy? I'm 54 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: glad you bring that up, because milk and is all 55 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: about getting capital to the right places and to the 56 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: right people, and and the banking system is absolutely critical 57 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: for getting at the small businesses and so so in fact, 58 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: what we're doing in Washington is to hold around table 59 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: to try to assess where the Dodd Frank legislations going 60 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: insofar as it's been implemented. Um, no one really knows 61 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: how well it's doing because the implementation is a is 62 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: a fly by night kind of story. That is, we're 63 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: going to figure it out as we go along. We 64 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: kind of have a figured out with the US banks down, 65 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: we raise capital. That's great because the US banks are 66 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,919 Speaker 1: stronger than any of the European counterparts, so we're super 67 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 1: competitive on that score. But now they're gonna say, you know, 68 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:22,839 Speaker 1: it's been such a successful model so called because we 69 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: now have strong, big banks, let's apply to the rest 70 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:27,679 Speaker 1: of the financial system. And that's where the problem is 71 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: going to be. Because you can define a systemic failure 72 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 1: as a bank going down because it's part of the 73 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: payment system, and and the payment system is what makes 74 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: the banks systemic. Now, what it happens when you have 75 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: an asset management company and suddenly the asset management company says, 76 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: oh gee, we have a lot of losses here because 77 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: some weird event happened, whether it's international or domestic, or 78 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: whether it's a company or sector. Now you're gonna ask yourself, 79 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: what is systemic about a company like black Rock? Right? 80 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: Is that you know the fact that people lose them 81 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: a lot of money. Does that make a systemic Well, yeah, 82 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: if it's if you're you're allowed it's allowsy if you're 83 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: a Chicago pension fund, right, But if you're just a 84 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: rich a hedge phone owner, right, Hey, you're supposed to 85 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: lose money. Good morning to leave with this with the 86 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,119 Speaker 1: milk and institute. To me, one of the great topics 87 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 1: is leverage is solution, and that if you have less leverage, 88 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 1: everything is supposed to get better. Do you buy that idea? 89 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 1: Is that too simplistic? I think I think that is 90 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: the greatest nonsense in the world. Because leverage is not 91 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: a source of risk, it's an amplifier risk. If you 92 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: have a lot of leverage, yes, whatever goes wrong goes badly, 93 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 1: really really badly, but whatever goes right goes really well. 94 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: And so so leverage is something that's a tool that 95 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 1: you're supposed to use along with all the others. So 96 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 1: this and I don't want you to come into the 97 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 1: Swiss banks, but the Swiss banks lead to charge with 98 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: bringing down the leverage making for a more solid balance sheet. 99 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 1: Do you suggest that it really doesn't change the risks 100 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 1: out there? What would change the risk is to change 101 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: the risky behavior of management. So what are trying to 102 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: do is to say, we're you gonna take away the 103 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: amplification that we know bad management is going to do. 104 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: So what that's simplicitly saying is that we don't trust 105 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: the management. We're gonna take away all of the transmission 106 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: channels that amplified the risky stuff that they're doing. And 107 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,039 Speaker 1: I think that's the wrong way about it. Go to 108 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 1: the source, Go to the source of what they're doing 109 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 1: that's causing the systemic risk to be such a big concern, 110 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: especially for a national authority light the Swiss. We got 111 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: this hundred page report from the Treasury Department last week, 112 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: the first chapter of many I gather from the Treasure 113 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: Department that was focused on banks, regulation and banks. What 114 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: did you learn from that document about where this administration 115 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 1: is headed when it comes to regulation. Laid out in 116 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 1: that report our steps that the regulators can take to 117 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: change rules. What did you take away from that report? 118 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: I think that it shows that the administration actually was 119 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 1: listening to what people were saying about the implementation of 120 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: DoD Frank as I said, it was, it's sort of 121 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 1: fly by night and and and sort of doing doing 122 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: it by ear But but what the Administress saan saying 123 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: is that we've heard some good ideas and so what 124 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 1: we're gonna do is not mess with the legislation because 125 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: that's gonna be a mess to have to go through Congress. 126 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: But we're going to deal with it on the supervisory level. 127 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 1: We're gonna have the supervisors implemented in the same that 128 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: takes into account the feedback from with the people. When 129 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 1: you were with allainbounded sitting group, you're flying at thirty feet. 130 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:08,799 Speaker 1: Now you're with milk, and so you're up at seventy 131 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: tho feet with oxygen strapped on. If a mere mortals 132 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: like us look at the economy, is it a three 133 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 1: percent of US economy right now? What's unfortunate is that 134 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: productivity numbers just haven't come up. And by definition, you 135 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: can't get the high growth numbers we want, which is 136 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 1: three percent before better without proactivity coming up. And why 137 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: is that? Because you haven't used technology properly? Why haven't 138 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: used technology because the people who have the technological progress 139 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 1: they can apply to stuff haven't been getting the funding 140 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: and and getting back to the the regulators. If small banks 141 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: are not putting out small loans and instead what Thought 142 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: Frank has done, and they've written about this that it's 143 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: in the American Bankers on our website. What Thought Frank 144 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: has done is to centify banks to get big loans 145 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: out because it's less more cost effective for them to 146 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 1: give big loans, and that just feeds money to the 147 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: companies that don't need it, the medium to large sized 148 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 1: companies that have money coming out of their eyeballs, the 149 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 1: small companies that would get you the high growth rates, 150 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: the high technology components that are going to be integrated 151 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: as as the BMW case is a good example that 152 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: we've mentioned earlier that BMW was able to combine good management, 153 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 1: good technology and increase American jobs in building cars of 154 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 1: all things right to export. For BMW, that's the kind 155 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 1: of of technology we need to incentivize, and that means 156 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 1: getting loans out to small businesses with the good ideas 157 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: that will hire more people. Does this administration get that? 158 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: Does the President get that? We saw what he said 159 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 1: when he was in Europe on his first trip abroad 160 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: about the German trade deficit. Does he understand the role 161 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: that a company like BMW is playing and creating American jobs. Well, 162 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: don't forget BMW producing cars here is increasing the American 163 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: start plus by exporting cars out of here. And I 164 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: think that's the feature of new trade policy. The future 165 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: of trade policy is not gonna be between countries. It's 166 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: gonna be between within the sector and between companies. We're 167 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: going to try to find ways of trying to shape 168 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 1: that they already to stort a trade. This out there, 169 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: because nobody in their right mind believes this free trade. 170 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: It's a world of distortions. Because what's the EU all about. 171 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: It's called a trade a customs union, right. That means 172 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 1: we have distorted trade to favor the European countries. What 173 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: we need is another offsetting set of distortions to to 174 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: put American workers back into the into the groove again, 175 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: and to get technology into the hands of increasing proctivity. 176 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 1: This is a real treat. William Lee is known to 177 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: write dense mustard reports for years. He did this at 178 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: I m f It's City Group, now at the Milk 179 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: and Institute. But then you love to come out with 180 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: these brilliant original billy charts. The Jolts survey the amount 181 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: of people being hired as compared to the amount of 182 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: job openings. To summarize radio, I just put the chart 183 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: out on Twitter. We have almost halved from the peak 184 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 1: and we're down on a quick cycle basis analysis I did. 185 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: There's a numerator and there's a denominator. Is it about 186 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: a lack of hirings? Is it about too many job openings? 187 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 1: Which it is this cut it's about hiring not keeping 188 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 1: pace with job openings. And what does that really mean? 189 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: When do you start looking for a labor because you 190 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 1: want to upgrade your labor place. You want more productive 191 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: people and you want people who are just better trained. 192 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 1: So you're looking for a lot of people. And right now, 193 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 1: at four point three level of unemployment, you're saying, gee, 194 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: I have a tough time finding the kind of people 195 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 1: I want. But at the same time, what's the secret 196 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: sauce behind hiring. You gotta raise wages, right, you gotta 197 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: hire up. I won't wait, just go up. Because the 198 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: chart is ugly, it's it's a long quadratic. There's an 199 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: accelerative force here because I don't need the labor because 200 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: you just told me they have they want to upgrade. Hey, 201 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: I want to I want to be like the conversation 202 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: this weekend, Tom, I want to be rich and thin, 203 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: but you know I'm still poor in fact, you know, 204 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,679 Speaker 1: and I've been poor and fat for forty years just 205 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: because I wanted to looking at me, just because you know, 206 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 1: I want something doesn't mean I get it right. And 207 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: and so the companies want to have better labor, but 208 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 1: they're not willing to pay up for it because they 209 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: know the labor isn't being productive and enough because the 210 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 1: revenues aren't there to pay them. And so they said, look, 211 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: I'm not willing to pay up, but I'm really looking 212 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: aggressively to get better worker. So I'm gonna take my time. 213 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: I'm gonna use part time, over time, anytime any time 214 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: I can get, but not full time because with full 215 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:17,079 Speaker 1: time I gotta worry about healthcare cause this whole Obamacare transition. 216 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 1: Why put up with that? So until I find the 217 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: perfect guy, I'm gonna be aggressively looking. But I'm not hiring. 218 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: And more importantly, I'm not putting up wages. And that's 219 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 1: where you don't get inflation, because all the transitory inflation 220 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: were getting is from the exchange rate from all prices, 221 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,079 Speaker 1: but not sustained wage. I would just cutting your David 222 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 1: and say the key phraser from Professor Lee was the 223 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 1: idea of no revenue. That's that's what everybody's looking for. Bill. 224 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 1: If you had a couple of minutes with the with 225 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 1: the FED chair, what would you say. I look at 226 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 1: your notes and it seems like a huge takeaway here 227 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 1: as you are not one who thinks that we should 228 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: be focusing on the balance sheet at this point. Why 229 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: why is that the case? Why why is your because 230 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 1: because say Cherry yelling, what's driving your balance sheet policy? 231 00:10:57,640 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: What in theory bothers you about? The balance is a 232 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 1: big number. It's a big number, and that's all you're 233 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: gonna tell me is that it's four chillion dollars. Bill, 234 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 1: where the hell have you been? And I said, you know, 235 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 1: four chillion dollars rolled to the the GDP next year is 236 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 1: gonna be smaller. Next year after that's gonna be smaller. 237 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,839 Speaker 1: So if you leave it alone as a sriftage automatically 238 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: starts to go down. The thing that you should be 239 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: telling everybody out there is what's driving my Montrey policy normalization. 240 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,079 Speaker 1: You're telling me the real rate and not in the 241 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: expecting flations that can get me a nominal interest rate 242 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 1: of three plus. Great that I know what the principle 243 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:31,199 Speaker 1: behind that. What's the balance sheet principle? John Taylor is 244 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: telling you look at reserve us read by banks, and yes, 245 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: reserve use has gone up, but it has nothing to 246 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 1: do with the operating system. Now, because you now have 247 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: a charter system that's divorced the size of the balance 248 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: sheet from your operating system, so you don't need to 249 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: worry about the size of the balance sheet just to 250 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: be able to maintain the Fed funds rate where it is. 251 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: So ultimately, Janet Yellen, why are you using the balance 252 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: sheet as a policy tool? And then maybe you might 253 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: come back to me and say, Bill, I'm worried about 254 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: the turn premium, And I said, is that the job 255 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: monitor policy to get the term print them from a 256 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 1: negative number to a positive number. No, that's what the 257 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: market is supposed to do. So there again, go back 258 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: to leaving the balance sheet alone, raise rates because their 259 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 1: market distoration associated with and don't tell everybody the law 260 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: that you're worried about inflation, because you know you're not. 261 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 1: Is this a thing where once the Fed begins to 262 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 1: unwind this balantry, it's going to it's going to continue 263 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: on on, depending on who perhaps replaces Cherry Yellen, who 264 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:24,959 Speaker 1: else fills these seats on the Federal's reporter. Is this 265 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: something that's that's subject to change here in these next 266 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 1: few months. I think they're so committed to it they 267 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 1: can't go backwards. So it's constitutional institutionally, they in order 268 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: for them to maintain the credibility. Yes, they're gonna be 269 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: reduced inside the balance sheet, but they told you how 270 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: they're going to do it. It was so slowly, gonna 271 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: be bored out of your brains. You're gonna be watching 272 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,839 Speaker 1: grass grow right or paint dry or whatever metaphor you 273 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: want to use. That's how they're gonna do it. And 274 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: if it's that unimportant to you, why mess with it 275 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 1: to begin with. But now you're stuck, you have to 276 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,319 Speaker 1: mess with it. Do it slowly. But if they don't 277 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: get weight growth because your hires opening chart, I mean, 278 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 1: how could you raise rates into us because of wage 279 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 1: growth typing real wage growth environment? Because raising race is 280 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 1: not gonna do anything to economy right now, because no 281 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 1: CEO out there is going to tell you I'm not 282 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 1: expanding capacity because of the cost of capital, cost of 283 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 1: capitalist matter. What matters to me is I don't get revenues. 284 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: I don't get demand. And you know, if you raise, 285 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 1: if you actually raise rates, you might actually get consumers 286 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: to spend more. And that's probably the next next time 287 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 1: I come back here and explained how that very good 288 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: Bill ye with us with the Milk and Institute. Thank 289 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: you so much. I put that chart out on Twitter. 290 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 1: It's an absolutely remarkable chart. What's what's occurred in a 291 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 1: major shout out to what Michael McKee Do you know him, David? 292 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,559 Speaker 1: He's an occasional guest. Michael McKee way out front with 293 00:13:42,640 --> 00:14:00,559 Speaker 1: the importance of the Jolts surveys, the lecture me joining 294 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,079 Speaker 1: us right now and banking has been way way too 295 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: long since we caught up with them. Certainly the dean 296 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,079 Speaker 1: of UH the view of all of the banking too 297 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: big to fail, regional banks, small banks as well. Gerard 298 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: Cassidy RBC Capital Uh Marcus, you're walking about ticks. I 299 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 1: suppose we're lobsters, right well, yeah, we usually to a 300 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 1: lobster report. We'll get to that, you know in a moment, 301 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: Drudge Cassidy, where's the value in banking right now? Big 302 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: big banks? Regionals or the lesser banks. Which is it come? 303 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: I think that the real value is the largest banks, 304 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: and the reason being is that they should get a 305 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: very good scorecard this week on c CAR, which is 306 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 1: the stress tests that they do every year. But more importantly, 307 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: as you might recall, a couple of weeks ago, the 308 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 1: Treasury issued a paper on the modifications that they're thinking 309 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: for Dodd Frank and those modifications that Dodd Frank will 310 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 1: be the big the big banks will be the biggest 311 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: beneficial Ever, we're getting better at doing these these stress tests. 312 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: I wonder what we learned from the Treasury Department about 313 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 1: this administration's interest in continuing them. And uh, if five six, 314 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 1: seven years after this law was passed, it's it's become 315 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: a more reliable way of assessing the integrity of a bank. 316 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 1: It certainly has done a very good job in measuring 317 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 1: the integrity of the banks. Um, they may have actually 318 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: gone a little too far. Even Governor Arrillo, he's the 319 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: former that a Reserve Board of Governor who is responsible 320 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 1: for creating these tests, and even he pointed out that 321 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: maybe they have gone too far in terms of being 322 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: too strict. So I think what the Treasury is going 323 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: to do is ease back a bit to be able 324 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: to stimulate lending more because these tests have gone a 325 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 1: little bit too far. Are the criticism has been that 326 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: they're they're too quantitative. What what what does that mean exactly? 327 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: And if not quantitative, what should distress tests be. Well, 328 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: it's interesting because the quantitative part of the test assumes 329 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: that you're coning and economic outlook and they take a 330 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: look at the bank's loan portfolio to see how it's 331 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: impact and then of course that you're going to generate 332 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 1: hundreds of millions of dollars of losses and you need 333 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,360 Speaker 1: the capitals to be able sustain that. And the industry 334 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 1: does that extremely well. Now on the qualitative front, which 335 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: is what we're seeing this week, that's where it's a 336 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: subjective analysis by the FED on internal systems and corporate governance, 337 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: and there's a debate when the qualitative part of the 338 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: test should continue, when we expect that to end. It 339 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: has already been uh canceled for the banks under two Jared, 340 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: what's the mindset of management on deploying cash to shareholder 341 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: is one of the great things we've heard from you 342 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: from Charles Peabody. There's been a revolutionary shift, if you will, 343 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: in the thinking of what to do with cash at banks? 344 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: Do you buy it? Is that sustained now and embedded 345 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 1: in the process. I think it is especially with a 346 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: few of the bigger banks. City Group in particular is 347 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: very focused on returning that excess cash or excess capital. 348 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: Our biggest banks is you guys probably know, are not 349 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: permitted to buy depositories because their market shairs are so 350 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: large and it's against the law, so they have to 351 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: give it back. So managements are more focused on that, 352 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: and I think Mentee Bankorp up in Buffalo, New York 353 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: is probably one of the best that doing it. I 354 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,400 Speaker 1: know you've been looking at You had a great note 355 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,199 Speaker 1: doubt looking at what effect the balance sheet unwinded the 356 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,439 Speaker 1: FED might have on these banks. Give us the broad 357 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: takeaway from the research you've you've done on that and others. 358 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: Because we got a rough outline from Cherry Yelling a 359 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: couple of weeks back about how the FED is going 360 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:21,199 Speaker 1: to proceed doing this, what does that mean for for 361 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: the medium sized large banks. It's probably going to be 362 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,239 Speaker 1: the next big issue for the industry. Many of us 363 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 1: recall what happens to banks and the credit cycle, but 364 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 1: we don't see a cycle coming anytime soon. However, a 365 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: liability side of the balance sheet, the industry's deposits of skyrocketed. 366 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: This is primarily due to quantitative easing. Now that the 367 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: FED is going to start to roll back feel back 368 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: their balance sheet, inevitably the deposits are going to come down. 369 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: We think in check the bole accounts alone, there's one 370 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: point two trillion of excess deposits in the system today. 371 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 1: And now, folks, we go to where we always go 372 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: with Gerard Cassidy. That little bank you need to know about? 373 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: This is fun? Uh, Jerry, you know, I give you 374 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 1: grief about this, but it's fun. Where's the value in 375 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 1: a little bank? Right now? Give us a stock Tom. 376 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 1: I think one of the names investors should look at 377 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 1: it is Prosperity Bank shares ticker s b uh PB. 378 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: I mean Peter Bill. Prosperity is down in Texas, run 379 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: by uh chairman and c CEO Zollman. He does a 380 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: phenomenal job. Texas, as you know, is a growth area 381 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: for this part of the country, of this part of 382 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 1: the US. I would also point out his loan to 383 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: deposit ratio is very low, and it ties into our 384 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: comments about where are how the tightening bud FED, the 385 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 1: unwind on the fed's gonna affect balance sheets. He's perfectly 386 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: positioned for that. It's done a double come on in 387 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 1: the last eighteen months. Is Puppy's gone thirty five to 388 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,479 Speaker 1: seventy five? It's rolled over a little bit, I get it. 389 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 1: How can it extend end out further gains? Oh? I 390 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 1: think what we'll see is as the consolidation of the 391 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: industry industry continues going forward, his stock will certainly benefit 392 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: from some of his peers. Not saying that he'll sell out, 393 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: but he has run such a strong bank for so long, 394 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 1: and as the M and A activity picks up for 395 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: the industry, he certainly will get some benefit from that. 396 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 1: But also he's demonstrated he knows how to run a 397 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: bank very very well. Jared Cassidy, thank you so much. 398 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: Uh Peb Peanut Butter Peb Prosperity Bank Shares, Houston, Texas, 399 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: three thousand, thirty three employees, Good morning, David's almond Um, 400 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:40,680 Speaker 1: Tim Tamanus, the vice chairman, and Edward Safadi. I hope 401 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 1: I'm pronouncing that Safati. I guess I should say in Houston, Texas, 402 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:47,719 Speaker 1: Gerard Cassidy, thank you so much as always great briefing. 403 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: I love doing this. David Gurrow with George Cassidy. He's 404 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: been doing this, you know since lobsters first game to Maine. 405 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 1: We didn't get our check in long. I had a 406 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: few last weekend. But but as really important folks that 407 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: when we spend to be kind of our time on 408 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 1: six banks, I mean it seems that way, maybe seven bangs, 409 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,159 Speaker 1: and there's a whole other banking world out there, and 410 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 1: guys like Gerard Cassidy, they try to find value. They 411 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 1: can be wrong, but there he is. Rard Cassidy, bruntch 412 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,400 Speaker 1: you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch with virtual reality 413 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: Virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world. 414 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: B of a mL dot Com slash VR, Mary Lynch, 415 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 1: Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated, Bob Sinches with Amors Pierrepont 416 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: with a story career on Well Bob. I got the 417 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,640 Speaker 1: d x YDE chart up here sort of a quick 418 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: cursory look at UH dollar Old Trading partners at all 419 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: for the first half of the year, the dollars down five. 420 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: Are you surprised, well, a little bit about the about 421 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 1: the magnitude of the adjustment. Um. You know, we we 422 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,400 Speaker 1: did feel at the end of last year the market 423 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: has gotten a little bit too boiled up on the dollar, 424 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,359 Speaker 1: and uh as as we often see, at the beginning 425 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: of the year, have great expectations uh for the Fed 426 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: and what they'll do during the year. Um and then 427 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 1: of course we get a week first quarter, we've gotten 428 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: a little bit of a setback on inflation, and so 429 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:33,199 Speaker 1: there is now uh increasing uncertainty about how much the 430 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: FED will follow through. But I think on the other side, 431 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: we've now taken the market from being excessively positive on 432 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: the dollar, there probably being excessively negative on the dollar 433 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:44,919 Speaker 1: and positive on a number of other currencies. So I 434 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 1: think we're in a we're in a bottoming process, and 435 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: in fact, that dollar will probably have a pretty good 436 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,199 Speaker 1: second half of the year and maybe end up the 437 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: end of this year where it ended up the end 438 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,680 Speaker 1: of last year. What's the source of the greatest uncertainty 439 00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 1: about the FED follow through at this point? Yeah, know, 440 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 1: I think that it's it's really been the inflation numbers. 441 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: We've had a big surprise part of it related to 442 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: suddenly putting in cheaper prices for cell phone usage and 443 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 1: everything else, and that's had a big impact on the 444 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: on the reported inflation numbers. But I do think that 445 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: it's interesting. You know, um, a year ago was rising 446 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:27,200 Speaker 1: inflation sort of dragging the Fed into higher rates. What's 447 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 1: interesting now is the inflation numbers have rolled over a 448 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: little bit in this recent drop in oil prices will 449 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 1: probably contribute to that a little bit in the months ahead, 450 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: but it's but it's the Fed that's actually kind of 451 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:44,159 Speaker 1: now resisting the decline and inflation and talking more about normalization. 452 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 1: And that's an issue that that I thought was a 453 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: was a big dichotomy for a number of years, and 454 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 1: that is the Fed would like to have I think 455 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 1: the real Fed funds rate adjusted for inflation back to 456 00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: at least zero UM, and so it's just been difficult 457 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:02,879 Speaker 1: for them to get there. I think they now look 458 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: at the labor market, they look at overall financial conditions, 459 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,400 Speaker 1: and they say, you know what, this is our environment 460 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 1: to get the real Fed funds rate back to zero. 461 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 1: Now the question will be there's a real Fed funds 462 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 1: rate at zero, imply a nominal Fed funds rate of 463 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 1: one and a half because that's the underlying inflation rate, 464 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,159 Speaker 1: or does it imply a nominal Fed funds rate of 465 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 1: two because the inflation rate is going to get back 466 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 1: to two or maybe a touch above. And that's where 467 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 1: I think the uncertainty for the dollar has crept in 468 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 1: in the last three or four months is we don't 469 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,720 Speaker 1: know whether you know an effect that zero Fed funds 470 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 1: rate and real Fed funds rate implies a one and 471 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 1: a half or two Fed funds rate. I think going 472 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: into that last meeting, we had a number of conversations 473 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,199 Speaker 1: about the FEDS ability to walk and chew gum at 474 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 1: the same time, if they could focus on winting that 475 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 1: balance sheet while they try to raise rates. It sounds 476 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 1: like from what you're saying there, there is inherent difficulty 477 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: in doing both things well. I think that that the 478 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 1: markets look for guidance on everything all at once, as 479 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: it always is, and I think the FEDS taking this 480 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:10,360 Speaker 1: in in steps. Um We've had um, you know, rate 481 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 1: hikes in March and June. You know, our house view 482 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,959 Speaker 1: is that in September will get more clarity on beginning 483 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 1: to wind down the balance sheet. Let the balance sheet 484 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 1: work its way down gradually, um, and that in December 485 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,159 Speaker 1: will probably get another rate hikes. So I think we 486 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,880 Speaker 1: do have in a sense for action meetings this year, 487 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: three of them rate hikes, one of them a balance 488 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 1: sheet discussion. You mentioned a crude oil here. If I 489 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,640 Speaker 1: could ask you just about what we saw last week, 490 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,400 Speaker 1: of course, with the downturn prices for for oil, where 491 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: do you where do you see w T I head 492 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: it was, it was that a blip wert do you 493 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 1: think we're headed for for lower prices here going forward? 494 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:51,160 Speaker 1: You know, Um, I've been expecting lower prices for much 495 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 1: of this year. I think we actually may have bottomed 496 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 1: out now. Um, we were focusing on the low forty 497 00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 1: two range. I think we had a low back last 498 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 1: November forty two twenty. We just undercut it around forty 499 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 1: two ten or so. Um. That looks to me like 500 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 1: a little bit of a double bottom, and oil tends 501 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 1: to like to double bottom, double top, So it wouldn't 502 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 1: surprise me that we put in a bit of a 503 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,400 Speaker 1: double bottom here in the low forty twos, and that 504 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 1: we may be trade now you know, forty two fifty 505 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 1: two over the next couple of months. I mean, I 506 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: I intrigued by your real fed funds, right, Bob, I 507 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 1: guess I've looked at that chart before. I'm gonna make 508 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 1: it up here, folks. It is absolutely original. The duration 509 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 1: of the negative real funds rate we've had before. I mean, 510 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 1: it defines a lower bound, and yet within that we're 511 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: still within the Great Moderation. It's quite escent compared to 512 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 1: what Mr Foker had to put up within the double recession. 513 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 1: Oh the is the Great Moderation still intact? You know? 514 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 1: I think it is. And you know, as we know 515 00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 1: we've talked about a number of times. I'm a big 516 00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 1: believer in the in the importance of demographics and UH 517 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 1: in dictating trends in the economy. And I think that 518 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 1: that uh, with the exception of Mr Gura, the rest 519 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:13,960 Speaker 1: of us are getting into that uh that age of 520 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:18,120 Speaker 1: of of savings and uh an investment and and trying 521 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,439 Speaker 1: to live off our savings. So I think the the 522 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 1: profile of the baby boomers is now, um, you know, 523 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,120 Speaker 1: very much of an investment profile. They're not borrowing, they're 524 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,879 Speaker 1: not leveraging, and as a result, I think it is 525 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:34,400 Speaker 1: a it is a great moderation in the product markets 526 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,679 Speaker 1: where there is not a great moderation, I think is 527 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: in the asset markets, because that's where the baby boomers 528 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,959 Speaker 1: are involved, that's where they're putting their money. And so 529 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: what we're seeing is I think a a big focus 530 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,880 Speaker 1: not only on bonds, but now moving out into high 531 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:54,320 Speaker 1: yield debt and importantly I think into UH into dividend 532 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,400 Speaker 1: paying equities as another place for for the baby boomers 533 00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:01,440 Speaker 1: to invest. So in a sense that that great moderation 534 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 1: in the product markets and the housing markets UH is 535 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,879 Speaker 1: showing up as as a lack of moderation in a 536 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,959 Speaker 1: sense and asset markets. It's a I've never said this 537 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,640 Speaker 1: chart is I'm gonna feature this all month, Bob, since 538 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 1: you may have just come up with my chart of 539 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 1: the year. It is amazing the period on a tenure 540 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: moving average from the middle nineties to the crisis, how 541 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 1: they had a real funds rate of two. They actually 542 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 1: manage the thing to where the textbooks want to be. 543 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,920 Speaker 1: The the textbooks would say that the real Fed funds 544 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,359 Speaker 1: rate should be at or slightly below growth potential, and 545 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 1: that's where it was for for for decades. And what 546 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 1: we've had now is just this, you know, unprecedented and 547 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 1: I think probably unhealthy period where the real FED funds 548 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: rate was negative by a significant amount, particularly if you 549 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 1: take into account the impact of the expanding balance sheet 550 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 1: um and again, so I think what we're looking at 551 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:03,400 Speaker 1: now is a FED that, unless something goes wrong, they 552 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 1: want to normalize. And again, the only uncertainty I see 553 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 1: is whether normalizing that real FED funds rate is one 554 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 1: and a half or two. Quickly, here we had build 555 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:14,680 Speaker 1: if you debate by proxy. Billity was here and said 556 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,439 Speaker 1: the FED shouldn't be worried about on wanting the balance 557 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,800 Speaker 1: sheet at all. Uh, do you understand that? Arguments I 558 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:21,119 Speaker 1: don't even make sense to you. Why do you think 559 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 1: the FED is wanting to tackle the balance sheet right now? 560 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 1: Because I think that they believe that it's just unhealthy 561 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:31,640 Speaker 1: for a central bank to own that much. I mean, 562 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,639 Speaker 1: it's just it's just not normal. It's not healthy. And 563 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,919 Speaker 1: in fact, when you think about I'll go back to 564 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 1: the demographics. You think about the baby boomers, there are 565 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 1: a lot of us who wouldn't mind owning more government 566 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,560 Speaker 1: debt for the long term if it paid us a 567 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 1: reasonable rate to return. So I think it would be 568 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,520 Speaker 1: healthy to shift it to the private sector. Fat Finger 569 00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 1: cinch with this from Himmer's pier Punt. I mean, come on, Bob, 570 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 1: you you worked at a number of major houses, and 571 00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 1: when something happens and everybody knows that bonus just went 572 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,959 Speaker 1: out the window, everybody blames a proverbial fat finger. Come on, 573 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 1: I don't buy it. Ever. Well, you know, you have 574 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 1: to wonder if you look at gold, at gold prices, 575 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 1: what usually would drive it, uh lower, would be a 576 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 1: stronger dollar we don't have. That would be higher interest rates, 577 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 1: we don't have that. Um, So maybe it is somebody 578 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 1: who's unwinding at the end of the half, unwinding a 579 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 1: big position. Yeah, that's a that's a distinct possibility. But 580 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: unwinding a big position is different than a fat figure. 581 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's good that mentions that idea 582 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 1: trading years, you know, I think that the mythology of 583 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 1: the street as they happen all the time. And I 584 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 1: think systems are actually pretty good given the volumes. I 585 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 1: think systems are very good. They've gotten a lot better 586 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 1: over the years. There's always a little flashing signal, you know. 587 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 1: I can't even move too much money between my bank 588 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: accounts without I'm asking whether I really want to send 589 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 1: that much or not so or that little. So I 590 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 1: do think that that the probability cities of that, particularly 591 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 1: in the London New York time zones, are pretty limited. 592 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 1: How do you respond as a currency bond guide to 593 00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 1: where the equity markets are? Futures up seven and you 594 00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 1: can you link that into the Bob Synch world, you 595 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,680 Speaker 1: know it? Um. It strikes me is that that line 596 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 1: from what was it an officer and a gentleman, I 597 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 1: got no place else to go. And I think that's 598 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 1: really what's been driving what's going on in in a 599 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 1: lot of equities, particularly the dividend paying sector of the 600 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 1: equity markets. Is that is that dividend yields of high 601 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 1: quality companies are very competitive with ten year bond yields. 602 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: So um in a and you have some upside potential 603 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 1: and probably not as much you know, perceived downside risk 604 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 1: and in pricing so net net. Again, this is where 605 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 1: I think the Fed wants to try to normalize conditions, 606 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,240 Speaker 1: and it's not normal for high quality equities to still 607 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 1: be paying higher dividends than ten year treasuries. We've valued 608 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 1: your perspective on sterling here over the last year year plus. Now, uh, 609 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 1: we're gonna hear from Prime Minister to Reason a little 610 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: later this morning. Care that for you live at nine 611 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,720 Speaker 1: thirty Wall Street Times. She's going to talk about the 612 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 1: rights of EU citizens in in the UK. What do 613 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,959 Speaker 1: we learned last week from her visit to Brussels, from 614 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,360 Speaker 1: that summit that she participated in, from the reception she 615 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,360 Speaker 1: got with her plan there to to afford some citizens, 616 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,560 Speaker 1: afford some rights to U citizens in the UK. Well, 617 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 1: I think what we've learned is that my guess is 618 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 1: this goes into extra time, um that that they probably 619 00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,680 Speaker 1: won't get all these issues solved within two years. I 620 00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 1: think we learned between last week and the Italian situation 621 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,240 Speaker 1: over the weekend is that the EU wants to stay 622 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 1: as as uh coalesced as they can. We had a 623 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,880 Speaker 1: potential issue with Italy versus the EU, and the European 624 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 1: Commission just just basically said we'll take it away from 625 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 1: the Pan European banking regulators and you go ahead and 626 00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,479 Speaker 1: deal with it yourself, because I don't think they want 627 00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 1: any conflict within the within the e US. So I 628 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,520 Speaker 1: think what we see is that is sort of both 629 00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 1: sides sticking out their positions. I still believe that as 630 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 1: the second largest importer of EU products, UM that when 631 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 1: when we get to the final analysis and we get 632 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 1: involved in trade deals, the EU has a lot to 633 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: lose and not having an agreement with the UK. I 634 00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 1: mean UK, uh imports from the EU is second only 635 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: to the US and it's close a close second. So 636 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a long, long drawn out process. UM. 637 00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 1: And you know again, I think it goes into overtime. 638 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,440 Speaker 1: I lost money this weekend betting on the Yankees dreaded 639 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,880 Speaker 1: New York Yankees or the appropriate trade right now, Bob, 640 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,320 Speaker 1: what's the trade to uh excite the second half of 641 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:50,120 Speaker 1: the year? You know, I think that UM one of 642 00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,280 Speaker 1: the most you talk about the dollar movements, one of 643 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,520 Speaker 1: the most volatile UM currencies versus the dollar has been 644 00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 1: to Mexican pay so worst worst performer in the second 645 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,440 Speaker 1: half of the year, best performer in the first half 646 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,320 Speaker 1: of the year. I think dollar max under eighteen I 647 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,520 Speaker 1: would be long dollars. I think with continuing to move, 648 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,960 Speaker 1: with the Mexican Mexican economy slowing and the Bank of 649 00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: Mexico finished in hiking rates, I think dollar Mexico's higher. 650 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,240 Speaker 1: You heard of there Bob seventeen point nine three on 651 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:22,080 Speaker 1: Mexican peso. Mr since suggesting stronger dollar weaker pace so 652 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,720 Speaker 1: which would drive Mexican pays in the direction of seventeen 653 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 1: up to eighteen handle. I'm gonna say it here for Bob, 654 00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:33,200 Speaker 1: since I mean his targets twenty three. I'm kidding. I'm kidding. 655 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:37,600 Speaker 1: I don't say that that's not accurate. But anyways, seriously, 656 00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 1: there it is on the swings of the Mexican pays 657 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:58,240 Speaker 1: so Bobs looking for stronger dollar versus weaker Mexican pa so. Um, 658 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 1: this is a real pleasure. He is the mayor of Boston. 659 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,160 Speaker 1: He's a different kind of mayor. Uh Martin, Joseph Walsh, 660 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:09,239 Speaker 1: Marty Walsh taking over with with awfully big shoes to 661 00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,240 Speaker 1: feel in and Tomanino. He joins us from the Mayor's 662 00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:16,280 Speaker 1: Conference in Florida. Mayor Walsh, what was it like taking 663 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,319 Speaker 1: over for Tom Andino? He was such a legend. What 664 00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,560 Speaker 1: did you do the first day when you had to 665 00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,640 Speaker 1: fill the Menino's shoes or the first day I went? 666 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:28,520 Speaker 1: I had My first meeting was about um public safety 667 00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 1: and crime in the neighborhood. I promised on the campaign 668 00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,000 Speaker 1: office and then later that day corporation complicated in and 669 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:36,800 Speaker 1: told me I had to make a decision on casinos, 670 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 1: which I was not expecting. So I realized that this 671 00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:41,880 Speaker 1: job is a little different than being a stay representative. 672 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 1: And for the next few months after that, it was 673 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 1: it was It was fast, but you know, following a 674 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 1: twenty and Mayor um, I think people a lot of 675 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,480 Speaker 1: people thought I would be really really hard. Not that 676 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:53,600 Speaker 1: not that tommany it was not a legend, but it 677 00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 1: was the fact that people were kind of interested in 678 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,000 Speaker 1: seeing so many people grew up with just Tomminino, they man, 679 00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:01,719 Speaker 1: so it's kind of almost like you get like an 680 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,239 Speaker 1: im fresh dot at it because so many people were 681 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,600 Speaker 1: wondering what it would be like, and that's an incredible opportunity. 682 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,040 Speaker 1: Mayor Wells, here's the numbers, you know, and we welcome 683 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:13,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg twelve Boston and all of our radio listeners across 684 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,200 Speaker 1: the nation and worldwide to the topic you're focused on 685 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,920 Speaker 1: in Miami and the topic you're focused on here the numbers, folks, 686 00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:27,840 Speaker 1: over the last five years, seventy seven hundred, eight hundred 687 00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: and fifty and a hundred ninety six opioid deaths in 688 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 1: Boston have essentially doubled over the last twenty four maybe 689 00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 1: thirty months as well. Give us an update on how 690 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 1: you and m g H and the other hospitals UH, 691 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,440 Speaker 1: in the entire medical community in Boston are dealing with 692 00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 1: the opioid epidemic. Well Max Hospital has a couple of 693 00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,440 Speaker 1: programs over they they're doing some incredible work. Boston Medical 694 00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 1: Center also is doing some incredible work UH with a 695 00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,919 Speaker 1: probra called the Viper program. We're working in Boston week 696 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,160 Speaker 1: created the first ever in the country Office of Recovery Services. 697 00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,360 Speaker 1: We changed our main phone number. UM. We added on 698 00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,080 Speaker 1: me phone UMBER should say folks looking for treatments, they 699 00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:10,880 Speaker 1: can call for anyone one in the city of Boston 700 00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:14,080 Speaker 1: and get access to treatment. UM. We're trying to make 701 00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,840 Speaker 1: treatments easier for folks to access. But also we have 702 00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,359 Speaker 1: to do more around prevention, and we have to talk 703 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,160 Speaker 1: to our kids younger. UM. The epidemic that's going on 704 00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,000 Speaker 1: in our country, I would say it's been going on 705 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 1: for probably twenty years because it was cracked before. It 706 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,720 Speaker 1: was heroin and carolin um and pills and strips and pills, 707 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:33,560 Speaker 1: and you know, yesterday we had a meeting here at 708 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,600 Speaker 1: the US Conference of Mayors where UM we had over 709 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,319 Speaker 1: fifty mayors in the room plus staff, talking about UM 710 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,600 Speaker 1: addiction all across America in small, quiet, suburban towns, in 711 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,960 Speaker 1: rural areas, in urban areas. And my first meeting three 712 00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:50,560 Speaker 1: years ago when I was appointed the chair of the 713 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,080 Speaker 1: Towns Force here in in the US Conference of Mayors, 714 00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:54,920 Speaker 1: we had twelve manors in the room. So you think 715 00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:58,600 Speaker 1: about this issue and how it's magnified now across America. 716 00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,919 Speaker 1: It's in every live in rooms, in every kitchen, UM 717 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,319 Speaker 1: and families don't know what to do and what we're 718 00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,440 Speaker 1: trying to do now has provide the mayors and folks 719 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,680 Speaker 1: with a tool kit on how to how to deal 720 00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,239 Speaker 1: with it. In Boston really has done some incredible things, 721 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:15,280 Speaker 1: as has like states like Minnesota's done Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota's 722 00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,879 Speaker 1: done some incredible things as well. So you know, we're 723 00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:20,239 Speaker 1: trying to share best practices and trying. I don't know 724 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,439 Speaker 1: if you're gonna get ahead of this, but too many 725 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 1: young people are losing their lives, many older people losing 726 00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 1: their lives. David Girl, Yeah, you're dealing with it on 727 00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:28,279 Speaker 1: a local level. You're seeing states deal with it at 728 00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,920 Speaker 1: the state level. Is the federal government doing enough? We 729 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,040 Speaker 1: remember well more than a year ago now Governor Chris 730 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:36,040 Speaker 1: Christie in Belmont, New Hampshire talking very movingly about his 731 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 1: experience watching friends with with opioid addictions. What does the 732 00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,480 Speaker 1: federal government need to do in your estimation, they has 733 00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:44,200 Speaker 1: to do more, I mean has it has to really 734 00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,960 Speaker 1: think about national policy and how we deal with this. 735 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,040 Speaker 1: And also we have to think about how do we 736 00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,200 Speaker 1: how do we help law enforcement and be able to 737 00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,799 Speaker 1: get these drugs off the street and guns off the street, 738 00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:56,080 Speaker 1: quite honestly, because sometimes they go hand in hand with 739 00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,799 Speaker 1: the accessibility to it. But the sto government that they 740 00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,000 Speaker 1: don't necessarily need to call how to react on how 741 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:02,880 Speaker 1: to do our job, but they have to help us 742 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,399 Speaker 1: school with funding. UM. The President in his budget did 743 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,160 Speaker 1: put some money in for for addiction services, which I 744 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,719 Speaker 1: gave him credit for UM, but it's not enough and 745 00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,120 Speaker 1: it doesn't go far enough, and I think that it's 746 00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,360 Speaker 1: time now. This is a national crisis. And during the 747 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,920 Speaker 1: presidential election, you know, Hillary Clinton was the first to 748 00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 1: talk about Chris Christie was very open. Jeff Bush spoke 749 00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:25,239 Speaker 1: about it, Donald Trump spoke about it, Bernie Sands. They 750 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:28,040 Speaker 1: all spoke about the need to deal with this issue, uh, 751 00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:29,880 Speaker 1: and this is really what we should be focusing on. 752 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,120 Speaker 1: Issues like the drug addiction in that country. We should 753 00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,960 Speaker 1: be focused on issues like infrastructure that country and housing 754 00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,520 Speaker 1: in that country instead of instead of getting sidetracked all 755 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 1: day long about repealing, uh, the Affordable Care Act or 756 00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,640 Speaker 1: I mean, those are the issues that that really Americans 757 00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:47,040 Speaker 1: would care about. That the American in America Mayor Wall 758 00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,160 Speaker 1: she was at the Conference of Mayor's down in Miami, Florida. 759 00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,960 Speaker 1: I wonder what's the what's what's driving the conversation down there. 760 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,640 Speaker 1: It's an opportunity for you to talk to others in 761 00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,920 Speaker 1: your position across this this country. What's the big overarching 762 00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,680 Speaker 1: theme of this year's a conference? Step my Well, I 763 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,239 Speaker 1: think there's a couple. One is that that we're a 764 00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,520 Speaker 1: bipartisan group of mayors, and I think that's been that's 765 00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:09,000 Speaker 1: been mentioned almost in every single UM conversation we've had. 766 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:13,120 Speaker 1: The leader this year, the president is Mitch Coinage, the 767 00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:17,279 Speaker 1: mayor out of Oklahoma City. UM. These Republican UM you know, 768 00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,480 Speaker 1: So it's about how do we move our agenda's forward. 769 00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,920 Speaker 1: That's the kind of the big beam, but healthcare seems 770 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,240 Speaker 1: to be the big number one dominant. When I started 771 00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,319 Speaker 1: the week, I thought it would be infrastructure, but now 772 00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,719 Speaker 1: it's clearly healthcare. Um. The impact that that the the 773 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,160 Speaker 1: Senate that would have on local hospitals all across America 774 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:37,760 Speaker 1: to be detrimental. UM also the impact the seniors in Boston. 775 00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,759 Speaker 1: We have obviously some of the greatest hospital institutions in 776 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,160 Speaker 1: the world. Um, we will fill an impact, but we 777 00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,160 Speaker 1: have They've been there so long that well, I think 778 00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:47,680 Speaker 1: they can absorb it over time. But you get some 779 00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,239 Speaker 1: of these hospitals around American, small little towns, that is 780 00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,839 Speaker 1: the economic engine. Uh. And if they lose you know, 781 00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 1: patients that have health insurance, um, they don't have the backup, 782 00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,840 Speaker 1: but we do in Boston, and and even in Boston 783 00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,480 Speaker 1: will be difficult. We're talking time, you know. I think 784 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,239 Speaker 1: there's millions and millions of dollars that are impacted here. 785 00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,160 Speaker 1: So so this Affordable Care Act is kind of taking 786 00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:10,279 Speaker 1: over the dominance of the conference, asking the Senate to 787 00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,040 Speaker 1: delay the vote on Thursday and and to really work 788 00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,440 Speaker 1: some positives of the bill. My fear though, is that 789 00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,840 Speaker 1: a lot of the centators that are holding out on Thursday, 790 00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:19,960 Speaker 1: holding out because they don't think the bill goes fair enough. 791 00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,840 Speaker 1: That's concerned of mine. Give me a city that you admire. 792 00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:26,040 Speaker 1: Imagine you're talking to to your counterparts leading other cities, 793 00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,719 Speaker 1: and you're hearing about things they're doing differently, things that 794 00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,640 Speaker 1: are are innovative. As you come back from Miami to Boston. 795 00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:33,640 Speaker 1: What's the what's the big takeaway something you've seen that 796 00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:37,080 Speaker 1: you might like to implement in Boston. That's a good one, 797 00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:39,520 Speaker 1: I think. Um, Um, let me think of some stuff. 798 00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,279 Speaker 1: You know, obviously Erica, Sadi and Eli is doing some 799 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,719 Speaker 1: great things on the environment. We are as well. Um, 800 00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,440 Speaker 1: a lot of the technology that we're having here, I think, Um, 801 00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,160 Speaker 1: you know, I'm trying to think there's a there's a 802 00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:51,640 Speaker 1: lot of different things going on here. I mean, I 803 00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:56,560 Speaker 1: admire the cities like Louisville, UM, you know New Orleans obviously, UM. 804 00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,719 Speaker 1: Down here in Miami Beach, the mayor Mailer being doing 805 00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:03,160 Speaker 1: some things down here in Miami. Um. You have you know, Providence, 806 00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,560 Speaker 1: Royland or Zoe is doing some innovative things in the Providence. 807 00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:09,040 Speaker 1: I think that we were all kind of sharing best 808 00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,840 Speaker 1: practices on how we do things that there's some mayors 809 00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:15,120 Speaker 1: in Minnesota that are doing some incredible things on opioids 810 00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,840 Speaker 1: in drug addiction that we aren't doing in Boston, and 811 00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:19,759 Speaker 1: that we aren't doing a country. So we look at 812 00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,600 Speaker 1: different places to pick up different ideas. There's not one 813 00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:24,279 Speaker 1: idea that jumped out of me this week, but there's 814 00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:27,439 Speaker 1: some great people down here, Me and Walley and Dane 815 00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,920 Speaker 1: Ohio doing some incredible things with the Tri County mayors 816 00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,319 Speaker 1: on addiction as well. She's talking about it yesterday. UM, 817 00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,000 Speaker 1: so there's some great mayors here doing some great things. 818 00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:41,160 Speaker 1: Tell me about what you need from Mr Trump. It's 819 00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:43,440 Speaker 1: been such a zoo and we're following the zoo every 820 00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,600 Speaker 1: day like anybody else. What is a mayor of a 821 00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:50,200 Speaker 1: big city need from President Trump? I think we need 822 00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:51,880 Speaker 1: them to be the president. I think we needed to 823 00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,480 Speaker 1: stop um the rhetoric with the Twitter, and I think 824 00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:57,120 Speaker 1: I think he needs to put some people around them 825 00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,880 Speaker 1: that understand the process. I think that every time they 826 00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:04,000 Speaker 1: he responds negatively to a tweet or to some outrageous statement, 827 00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,759 Speaker 1: it affects all our cities indirectly. And I think that 828 00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,160 Speaker 1: I would ask him, um if I had a chance 829 00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:10,840 Speaker 1: to sit with him that you know, he still has 830 00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:14,600 Speaker 1: an opportunity to to have a good presidency. Uh, get 831 00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,960 Speaker 1: to get the ship back on on I'll get the 832 00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,480 Speaker 1: train back on the track if you will, because right 833 00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,960 Speaker 1: now you just can't keep just pulling these issues out 834 00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,879 Speaker 1: of the air and going at the focus on infrastructure. 835 00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:28,080 Speaker 1: I mean you talked about that focus on infrastructure. Focus 836 00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,480 Speaker 1: on the addiction as they mentioned earlier. Think you put 837 00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,280 Speaker 1: five on a million dollars into a budget for addiction services, 838 00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:37,840 Speaker 1: focus on openolates and in drug addiction in America, focused 839 00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:41,200 Speaker 1: on housing. Um, you know, the immigration thing to take 840 00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:43,680 Speaker 1: it and takes what he's done and all the rhetoric 841 00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:47,040 Speaker 1: around the conversations about sanctuary cities and taking funding away 842 00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:50,080 Speaker 1: and in turn it around and say, okay, let's tell 843 00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:53,239 Speaker 1: Congress to do a comprehensive immigration reform bill. I think 844 00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,040 Speaker 1: that those are the things that we need a president 845 00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:56,840 Speaker 1: to get back to. I mean, we're not used to 846 00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,880 Speaker 1: this type of this type of leadership in the country. Um, 847 00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:01,440 Speaker 1: and I know a lot of people something not a 848 00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,440 Speaker 1: lot people still support the president that I listen to 849 00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,239 Speaker 1: the radio. I wanted to be successful. I think we 850 00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:07,960 Speaker 1: all want to be successful because we want to know 851 00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:11,000 Speaker 1: say to be successful, but right now we're not around 852 00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:13,480 Speaker 1: the world, We're not viewed as as the country we 853 00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,000 Speaker 1: were eight months ago, and that's a that's a shame, 854 00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,520 Speaker 1: and that the set statement for America. May weh a 855 00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:20,160 Speaker 1: couple of weeks back that Tom and I came into 856 00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,760 Speaker 1: the studio, we saw the news about Jeff Ymilt leaving 857 00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,000 Speaker 1: General Electric and it caught us by surprise. I wonder 858 00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,640 Speaker 1: the degree to which it caught you by surprise and 859 00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:31,320 Speaker 1: what it means for that. That's that that that company's 860 00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,120 Speaker 1: role in the city of Boston, the role he's played, 861 00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:35,520 Speaker 1: and what the company is gonna be doing going forward. Yeah, 862 00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,360 Speaker 1: you know, I was. I was a little surprised. I 863 00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,320 Speaker 1: don't know the culporate world as much, and I was 864 00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:41,480 Speaker 1: surprised to see that he was being moved out. He's 865 00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:43,200 Speaker 1: been there for a while. But but now when you 866 00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,040 Speaker 1: see the new person coming in that has a healthcare 867 00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,120 Speaker 1: background as well, you see him it makes sense they 868 00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:49,319 Speaker 1: moved to Boston. Uh. You know, we have these great 869 00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:51,960 Speaker 1: hospital teaching hospitals, We have all these medical stud schools 870 00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,520 Speaker 1: in Boston and Massachusetts. So I guess you can see 871 00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:58,759 Speaker 1: the kind of the thought process behind it. Um, you know, 872 00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,120 Speaker 1: Gee has been an incredible old neighbors. They've only been 873 00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:04,120 Speaker 1: there for several months now, but they've already made over 874 00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:07,319 Speaker 1: a fifty million dollar investment in philanthropic support, whether it's 875 00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:10,719 Speaker 1: schools or healthcare, a job training. So, um, I look 876 00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:12,520 Speaker 1: forward to working with the new person. And but Jeff 877 00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,000 Speaker 1: was you know, I'll be great. I'd be grateful to 878 00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:19,120 Speaker 1: Jeff for making the move to Boston, Massachusetts. Down from 879 00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:22,200 Speaker 1: the Cask and Flagon. After you go over the Kenmore Bridge, 880 00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:26,040 Speaker 1: instead of turning left on the Yarky Way, now turn 881 00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:30,400 Speaker 1: right on David Ortiz Drive. Was that fun doing your 882 00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:33,719 Speaker 1: own infrastructure last week? Yeah? It was great, you know, 883 00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:35,680 Speaker 1: you know it's it's it's a bit of suite. I mean, 884 00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:38,120 Speaker 1: it was great. And I said this about that David. 885 00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:40,160 Speaker 1: You know, he's getting a lot of accodes because he's 886 00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:42,319 Speaker 1: played on the field. And I mentioned that at at 887 00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,719 Speaker 1: at the dedication. But also you know, the day after 888 00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,560 Speaker 1: the marathon bombing, UM, when the city was in a 889 00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:50,879 Speaker 1: desperate state. As far as you know, I'm not sure 890 00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,280 Speaker 1: what's going on, the Attis took the field the family 891 00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,839 Speaker 1: and he made an incredible statement. And he's been such 892 00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,759 Speaker 1: an important piece of our city off the field, whether 893 00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,359 Speaker 1: it's through his own children's trust fund or for other 894 00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,880 Speaker 1: things he's done. He's he's a Bustoni bonhom Dominican republic 895 00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,600 Speaker 1: An immigrant that is, that is as much of a 896 00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,200 Speaker 1: Bostonian as anybody. And it was a great honor. But 897 00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:12,680 Speaker 1: it was sad too because not seeing him on the field, 898 00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,040 Speaker 1: Like when you go to family, you miss him in 899 00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:17,800 Speaker 1: the in the fourth spot. Um, you miss him not 900 00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:20,799 Speaker 1: being there for all these great moments. You know, Um, 901 00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,560 Speaker 1: I grew up in the era of not winning World 902 00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:27,799 Speaker 1: Series and losing early six Um. And for the young 903 00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:30,560 Speaker 1: people that grew up seeing you know, like this normal 904 00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:33,400 Speaker 1: for the right Tucks to win World Series, Um, it 905 00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,480 Speaker 1: was you know, big prompt. He was as big, if 906 00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:38,040 Speaker 1: not to tiggest part of all of that. And my problem, Mayor, 907 00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:39,680 Speaker 1: is he's got some free time on his hand. As 908 00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:43,080 Speaker 1: you watch your back you're running. Yeah, he looks good. 909 00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:44,759 Speaker 1: I would say, he looks like you can still play. 910 00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:47,640 Speaker 1: I mean, he's an incredible shape and he's just such 911 00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:49,120 Speaker 1: a he's a humble man. I mean, he's just a 912 00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,320 Speaker 1: humble man. And you know when you see an athlete 913 00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,400 Speaker 1: that's such a that has risen to the level that 914 00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,040 Speaker 1: he has um to be so humble. It's great to 915 00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:58,239 Speaker 1: see that at the end of their career the humble mayor. 916 00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:00,680 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, particularly your comments from Miami on 917 00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,440 Speaker 1: what you've been working on with the mayor, the opioid epidemic. 918 00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:07,040 Speaker 1: Marty Walsh is the mayor of Boston. Again, we say 919 00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:19,759 Speaker 1: good morning Bloomberg Boston as well. Thanks for listening to 920 00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:24,480 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 921 00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:30,279 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 922 00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:33,880 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keene. David Gura is at David Gura. 923 00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:38,440 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm 924 00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:52,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Runch you by Bank of America Mary Lynch. 925 00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:58,360 Speaker 1: With virtual reality, virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in 926 00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,759 Speaker 1: a transforming world. B of A m L dot Com 927 00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:06,840 Speaker 1: slash v R, Mary Lynch, Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated,