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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju USh prow

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Speaker 1: read enough. They're all for running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smooth, so sweet. D sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 4: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see.

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Speaker 3: Your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 4: Most dangerous a mount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody piction them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left to one of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 3: drilled bibused.

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Speaker 1: How on earth did that happened?

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, Welcome back to one ago at the Soccer

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Speaker 2: Betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael

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Speaker 2: Leebap joining me It's always will be my friends, co hosts,

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Speaker 2: my colleagues, my betting spirit animals, b J Cunningham and

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Speaker 2: Anthony Dbundo. Together the three of us will handicap the

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Speaker 2: entire Premier League slate. We'll talk about the EFL Cup Final,

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Speaker 2: We'll take a little stroll around Europe, do a little

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Speaker 2: Bundesliga La Liga League Syria, then give out our three

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Speaker 2: leg money line underdog parlay, which came painfully, painfully close

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Speaker 2: to hitting last week and then talk about our favorite

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Speaker 2: bets in the Premier League for this upcoming weekend. And

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Speaker 2: then at the end of all that, you will hear

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Speaker 2: bj and Anthony talk to former US men's national team

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Speaker 2: player Eric Guinalda about a whole host of issues, including MLS,

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Speaker 2: the TV deal that they did with Apple TV. And

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Speaker 2: as always, we enjoy our chat with Eric each week

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Speaker 2: and are happy to have him on board at Wonder Goal.

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Speaker 2: But before we get to all that, a reminder that

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Speaker 2: Wonder Goal is presented to you by Bet three six five,

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Speaker 2: the world's favorites sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code

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Speaker 2: action to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up

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Speaker 2: offer in New Jersey and Colorado and Ohio. Bet one

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Speaker 2: dollar in any game and get two hundred free no

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Speaker 2: questions asked. All right, gentlemen, let's just get right to it.

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Speaker 2: We'll start with the UFL Cup. We'll start with Manchester

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Speaker 2: United and Newcastle. It's at Wembley. Newcastle hasn't won a

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Speaker 2: major trophy since nineteen fifty five. They will be without

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Speaker 2: their goalkeeper, Nick Pope, and that will be without second

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Speaker 2: choice goal their second choice goalkeeper too. They will be

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Speaker 2: playing Lauris Carrius right in at Wembley against United, the

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Speaker 2: Red Devils are plus one twenty, Newcastle plus two forty.

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Speaker 2: The draw is plus two thirty. I think this is

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Speaker 2: pretty simple. The numbers all kind of paint these two

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Speaker 2: teams in a similar light, and yet on a neutral

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Speaker 2: venue you're getting double the price on Newcastle, he said,

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Speaker 2: because they're goalkeepers out. That's not the reason why. I

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Speaker 2: know United's in a great form. But they are also

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Speaker 2: playing their fourth match in what thirteen days? Twelve days

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Speaker 2: when this was played, So I think it's Newcastle here

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Speaker 2: plus two forty. You think it's a good bet. BJ

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the market has completely fallen in love

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Speaker 1: with Manchester United. Given the form they've obviously been in.

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Speaker 1: We're now sitting out a plus one ten over Newcastle.

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Speaker 1: I mean, even if you started Michael this season on

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Speaker 1: October fifth, after United just got completely pacted by City,

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Speaker 1: and you take away all those horrible results at the

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Speaker 1: beginning of the season, and I give you all these

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Speaker 1: great results of the United ten hunder ten hog. They're

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Speaker 1: the best team in the world. He's got them cooking

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Speaker 1: and everything like that. United's been a plus eight point

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Speaker 1: four or plus point eight four. Excuse me expecting golder

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Speaker 1: frenchal per ninety minutes. Newcastle over that exact same time

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Speaker 1: span has been plus point seventy five. So essentially United's

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Speaker 1: just been a hair better than Newcastle. And yeah, I

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Speaker 1: get it, Nick Pope's not going to be a net

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Speaker 1: and that's obviously hurts Newcastle. But granted, you know it

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Speaker 1: was five years ago. But when Carrious was a regular

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Speaker 1: starter for Liverpool, you know he played around nineteen nineties

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Speaker 1: for Liverpool in the Premier League, he was only a

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Speaker 1: minus point seven post shatt xgplus minus keeper. Like he

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Speaker 1: wasn't horrible I have. Obviously, everybody sees the huge mistake

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Speaker 1: he made in the Champions League final and just paints

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Speaker 1: them as this terrible keeper. He's not really that, so

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Speaker 1: I don't think. I mean, it's obviously a loss, but

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Speaker 1: it's not like it's a catastrophic loss that should drop

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Speaker 1: the line thirty to forty cents plus. Newcastle as of late,

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Speaker 1: has been without Brindo Gemerays for the past three matches,

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Speaker 1: obviously due to his red card suspension in the EFL

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Speaker 1: Cup semifinals. He is vitally important to their team, maybe

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Speaker 1: the most important player on their entire team given what

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Speaker 1: he means for them, depending in transition and also starting

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Speaker 1: the build up play from the back line. And the

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Speaker 1: last time these two teams played it was a complete stalemate.

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Speaker 1: It was a zero zero draw at Old Trafford. Expected

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Speaker 1: goals were exactly even Newcastle. Let United tilt the field

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Speaker 1: on them about seventy percent. When Newcastle did a great

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Speaker 1: job of is they stifled United and build up play

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Speaker 1: unit it only had a seventy nine percent build up

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Speaker 1: completion percentage. Newcastle forced five high turnovers and caused a

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Speaker 1: lot of problems. And like we say every single week,

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Speaker 1: that's how Newcastle plays best. When they can sit back,

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Speaker 1: they can set up their pressing traps, they can press

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Speaker 1: high and they can cause problems. And listen, United was

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Speaker 1: awesome against Leicester, Like they had the best offensive performance

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Speaker 1: of anybody this Premier League season so far. I mean

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Speaker 1: they created four point one expected goals, they had nineteen

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Speaker 1: deep completions twenty four to ten plus pass sequences. They're

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Speaker 1: not going to be able to build out of the

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Speaker 1: back like they were able to do against Leicester. Also,

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Speaker 1: what we've seen from mich United, and I think this

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Speaker 1: is kind of an interesting dilemma they have to figure out.

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Speaker 1: What they're gonna do. Is that when they played bigger

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Speaker 1: sides like City, like Arsenal, they tend to sit or

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Speaker 1: even Barcelona, they tend to sit very deep and look

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Speaker 1: to counter and be very direct. Are they gonna really

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Speaker 1: do that against Newcastle? Are they gonna be the ones

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Speaker 1: that's controlling a lot of possession and then trying to

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Speaker 1: defend and transition. Obviously they've been better with Castle Moro

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Speaker 1: back in the lineup. But yeah, this is complete market overreaction.

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Speaker 1: This is a United seventh match in nineteen days. They

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Speaker 1: have a huge match against Barcelona on Thursday, so and again,

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Speaker 1: like the Anthony mentioned last week, ten Hawk has not

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Speaker 1: rotated anybody, so we are just coming with the same

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Speaker 1: exact team over and over with all this match build up,

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Speaker 1: while Newcastle's had a full week of rest. This is

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Speaker 1: a tremendous spot for Newcastle. So I like them plus

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Speaker 1: half a goal at minus one thirty to at least

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Speaker 1: get this extra time. And I do not hate the

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Speaker 1: play on them to lift the trophy either.

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Speaker 5: I mean, have you been following me or if you

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Speaker 5: listen to this you know that I think both of

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Speaker 5: these attacks have been just like running like gods for

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Speaker 5: the better part of the last half of the season.

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Speaker 4: Now Newcastle has cooled off quite a bit.

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Speaker 5: I think you're starting to see that the market react

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Speaker 5: to that, with this number steaming a little bit toward United.

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Speaker 5: In addition to the goalie, Newcastle has struggled for goals

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Speaker 5: in the last month. We've seen I think, you know,

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Speaker 5: some signs of like, you know, can they play from

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Speaker 5: behind effectively?

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Speaker 4: That's been tested. They didn't do great at it, you know.

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Speaker 5: Getting separation from teams like west Ham and Bournemouth has

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Speaker 5: been difficult, held to a draw against Palace, scored late

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Speaker 5: against Fulham, like there has been some regression, but the

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Speaker 5: defense continues to be what I pretty solid in my view,

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Speaker 5: and they got opened up by Liverpool a couple times

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Speaker 5: in transition, but overall I thought, like, I think their

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Speaker 5: defense has been mostly fine. And I do worry a

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Speaker 5: little bit about United defensively because they've conceded at least

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Speaker 5: one expected goal in five straight matches excluding the Leeds

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Speaker 5: match where they conceded it in the first minute, and

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Speaker 5: we're losing pretty much the whole way. So I'm a

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Speaker 5: little worried about the United defense. But they will have

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Speaker 5: Casamiro back for this match, which I think helps, and

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Speaker 5: you mentioned it with Demirace too. Essentially like the two

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Speaker 5: best metronomic ball winning players for each team will be back.

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Speaker 5: And I think what that ultimately does from a tactical

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Speaker 5: point of view is it enables both teams to slow

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Speaker 5: this game now, to keep the other out of transition

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Speaker 5: where they are at their best. And if this game

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Speaker 5: becomes a bit of like a like a half court

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Speaker 5: in a way, like if you think of it in

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Speaker 5: a basketball way, I actually think that that favors the

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Speaker 5: under here. Both attacks like Newcastle's we know is a

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Speaker 5: little bit of a paper tiger. Just looking at the talent,

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Speaker 5: you can be like, Okay, this team isn't really like

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Speaker 5: a top four attack in the league. But United, I mean, look,

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Speaker 5: Marcus Rashford scores a goal every single game, but you

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Speaker 5: look around at like the rest of the team and

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Speaker 5: they're just like woot Beghurst is not really getting many shots.

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Speaker 5: Sancho has been okay with ball progression, but even his

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Speaker 5: shot numbers have not really returned except for that one

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Speaker 5: half against Leeds. So I think, you know, both of

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Speaker 5: these attacks come in a little inflated still two and

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Speaker 5: a half minus one twenty to the under. I'm betting

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Speaker 5: that and have bet it, and I think this will

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Speaker 5: be a low scoring affair with hopefully no Carrious errors.

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Speaker 5: But you know, Rashford continues to own me. I had

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Speaker 5: the under three Sunday, probably my luckiest push of the year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Carrious in a cup final, got to back them,

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Speaker 2: got back.

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Speaker 4: I feel like he's gonna stand. I think he's making

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Speaker 4: a big safe.

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Speaker 1: I mean they literally dropped, they were I mean United

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Speaker 1: was plus one forty and then Newcastle got beat by

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Speaker 1: Liverpool and then Nick Pope got the red cart and

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Speaker 1: I checked it afterwards and obviously United put up you know,

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Speaker 1: they put a thousand exec spectacles against Leicester. Now it's

185
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Speaker 1: plus one ten. I'm like, Carrious is not the difference

186
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Speaker 1: between carriers of Pope is not thirty cents. That's drastic,

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Speaker 1: that's insane. So yeah, Newcastle, Yeah.

188
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Speaker 5: You know, I just also don't think United like they

189
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Speaker 5: played right through Leicester, like they weren't really there once.

190
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Speaker 5: They kind of came back from that like rough start.

191
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Speaker 5: But you're just like not gonna get a Mendy Dewsburry

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Speaker 5: Hall midfield in this matter, like United, Newcasters has so

193
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Speaker 5: much more ball winning, like they have actual midfielders, So

194
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Speaker 5: I just think it's gonna be much more difficult, whereas

195
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Speaker 5: this laster team man awful.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Premier League now we'll start. We'll

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Speaker 2: stay on Sunday. So the Newcastle United EFL Cup is

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Speaker 2: eleven thirty at Wembley Sunday morning, eight thirty am Eastern time,

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Speaker 2: nine thirty yeah, nine thirty am. IOWA time for BJ

200
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Speaker 2: at Tottenham Hotspur or plus one fifty five taking on

201
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Speaker 2: Graham Potter's Chelsea plus one ninety. The draw here is

202
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Speaker 2: plus two to two five. These odds, of course, brought

203
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Speaker 2: to you by our friends at bet three six five.

204
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Speaker 2: Chelsea coming off of another loss. If somebody on this

205
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Speaker 2: podcast said a bet on Chelsea alternate team total over

206
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Speaker 2: go find whatever price you want in a get great

207
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Speaker 2: spot against Southampton was a good bet. They scored zero.

208
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Speaker 2: Spurs they've won three or four. Maybe they're back, They're

209
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Speaker 2: in the top four in the world. I'm I don't

210
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Speaker 2: want to trust Chelsea at a number like this. I'm sorry, Anthony,

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Speaker 2: how on earth are you backing this team at this price?

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Speaker 5: Well, I just don't like I think the Endervine numbers

213
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Speaker 5: are taking a step forward for Chelsea.

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Speaker 4: Look, I know they lost to Southampton.

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Speaker 5: It was not a great performance overall, and I think

216
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Speaker 5: that the body language is bad, Like if you want

217
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Speaker 5: to be body language guy, Like, they just like don't

218
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Speaker 5: look like they're like feeling inspired. But I think that's

219
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Speaker 5: like a that feels like a I don't even know

220
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Speaker 5: the term that I'm trying to use here, but basically,

221
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Speaker 5: like a self fulfilling prophecy is the word I'm looking for,

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Speaker 5: and I think that's what's kind of happening with Chelsea.

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Speaker 5: They just need to see the ball going the back

224
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Speaker 5: of the net because this team has run so bad

225
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Speaker 5: and I know it's like a Potter special. He's even

226
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Speaker 5: changed up tactics, tried to get them playing a certain way.

227
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Speaker 5: It wasn't really working. So now they've switched it up

228
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Speaker 5: and it is working. They're getting really good chances and

229
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Speaker 5: they're just not finishing any of them. One point five

230
00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,520
Speaker 5: xg against the Saints, no goals to over two against Dortman,

231
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:24,320
Speaker 5: rattled the crossbar, no goals, one point two against west Ham.

232
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Speaker 5: They finally got a goal, had two more ruled out

233
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Speaker 5: for offside, like just you can't catch your break against Fulham.

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Speaker 5: BJ's still mad about that match. Over one and a

235
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Speaker 5: half expected goals against Liverpool dominating on set pieces, over

236
00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:39,360
Speaker 5: one and a half expected goals, no goals. So they've

237
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Speaker 5: scored one goal in the last five matches and all

238
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Speaker 5: competitions from like nine and a half expected.

239
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Speaker 4: I mean, it's just insane.

240
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Speaker 5: And if you look at Tottenham, like, yeah, they had

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Speaker 5: a pretty solid home performance against west Ham, who gave

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Speaker 5: no real I mean it was just one of the

243
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Speaker 5: worst halves I've ever seen from both teams in the

244
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Speaker 5: first half of Spurs west Ham and then Spurs you know,

245
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Speaker 5: found a couple of moments to win the match in

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Speaker 5: the second half.

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Speaker 4: But I didn't come away overly impressed with Tottenham's performance.

248
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Speaker 5: It wasn't a Tottenham is, you know, playing right through

249
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Speaker 5: west Ham with ease. It wasn't a Tottenham is overwhelming

250
00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,480
Speaker 5: them with shot after shot after shot. Like, it wasn't

251
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Speaker 5: anything where I felt like I needed to truly upgrade Totten.

252
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Speaker 5: I give him a you know, a little bump just

253
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Speaker 5: for the XG final, like how it works, like how

254
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Speaker 5: I update stuff. But like overall, I thought it was

255
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Speaker 5: still pretty uninspiring and they're still going to you know,

256
00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:31,120
Speaker 5: be dealing with these midfield issues, I think for the

257
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Speaker 5: rest of the season. Even though Hiiberry is back, you know,

258
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Speaker 5: they decide to sit Son, he comes off the bench.

259
00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:39,560
Speaker 4: Interesting decision.

260
00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:43,520
Speaker 5: Got nothing from Charlotton in the first half, so you

261
00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:47,920
Speaker 5: know he's playing Stealeny played Ben Davis as a as

262
00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,679
Speaker 5: a wing back, so he's essentially playing like five defensive

263
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Speaker 5: players plus Hoiberg, like a very conservative lineup. And I

264
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Speaker 5: just think that this Chelsea team is playing better than

265
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Speaker 5: Tottenham right now, despite what the results say. We just

266
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Speaker 5: watched both these teams play in the Champions League on

267
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Speaker 5: the road. Chelsea put up over two expected goals against.

268
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:05,880
Speaker 4: A decent Dortmund team.

269
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Speaker 5: Spurs could barely get a shot against Milan. Like I

270
00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:13,040
Speaker 5: just don't really think that the results are matching the

271
00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:15,040
Speaker 5: process for either of these teams right now. And I'm

272
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Speaker 5: going to back Chelsea draw no bet. I think it's

273
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Speaker 5: one of my favorite spots of the year. I know

274
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Speaker 5: it's at Spurs, but I'm gonna bet against Tottenham for

275
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Speaker 5: the second straight week and hopefully it goes better this

276
00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:26,160
Speaker 5: week and it did last week.

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Speaker 1: For me.

278
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Speaker 5: Somehow Spurs have won three of five. I got the

279
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Speaker 5: other beat Fulham, so yeah, you know we're back for now.

280
00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:38,640
Speaker 5: Not really, Maybe we lost the XGA to Fulham, played

281
00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,200
Speaker 5: poorly against me, lons like it hasn't been particularly good

282
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Speaker 5: for Spurs. I'm still out.

283
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:45,120
Speaker 2: You were still out on Spurs, man, you were so

284
00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:48,320
Speaker 2: in on Liverpool and then Carlo Ancelotti.

285
00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:48,839
Speaker 4: I was waiting for that one.

286
00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,240
Speaker 2: Showed you whose boss? Oh, I'll still bring it back

287
00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,280
Speaker 2: up in a little bit. BJ What do you think

288
00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:55,640
Speaker 2: of here? Spurs and Chelsea?

289
00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,200
Speaker 1: I feel very similar about this match how I did

290
00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,480
Speaker 1: about when shell See went to go face west Ham.

291
00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,800
Speaker 1: Not I'm not running the window to bet Spurs, but

292
00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,440
Speaker 1: the spot to bet Chelsea and a lot of the

293
00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,640
Speaker 1: defensive A russion is not against one of the best

294
00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:10,440
Speaker 1: low blocks, one of the best teams that defending their

295
00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:14,040
Speaker 1: own penalty against a bunch of wingers playing his striker

296
00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,520
Speaker 1: positions who can't finish. So this is not the spot

297
00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:19,520
Speaker 1: for me. I actually do have some projected value on

298
00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:23,440
Speaker 1: Tottenham right now, just because of the overall season arching metrics,

299
00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:28,000
Speaker 1: because and Tottenham has been awesome. So I'm not But

300
00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:30,320
Speaker 1: again I'm not gonna bet them. There's just there's no

301
00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,240
Speaker 1: way to want to do that. So this is easiest

302
00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:34,000
Speaker 1: pass on the board.

303
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,840
Speaker 2: How about Friday, then let's oh no, there's.

304
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,320
Speaker 1: Let's get to Friday. I got some thoughts about this.

305
00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:44,680
Speaker 2: I like this this game. I actually kind of like

306
00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,160
Speaker 2: this game. It's Friday Night Lights.

307
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:48,640
Speaker 1: This is the worst match of the season.

308
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:51,080
Speaker 5: Should play every Friday, so that BJ has to watch

309
00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,720
Speaker 5: them for two hours every week and he has to.

310
00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,920
Speaker 4: Bet against them and lose every.

311
00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,080
Speaker 5: Week and just chamber get the loss out of the

312
00:14:58,080 --> 00:14:59,520
Speaker 5: way and then you can have a great weekend.

313
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,080
Speaker 1: No, because I'm just getting mad the whole weekend.

314
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:05,760
Speaker 2: Oh no, you can flush it and you'll wake up

315
00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:06,280
Speaker 2: on Saturday.

316
00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:07,400
Speaker 1: You feel for you don't know me.

317
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:14,160
Speaker 4: Five minutes pre show, Uh, just right, I did about

318
00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:15,000
Speaker 4: the Brighton Follham game.

319
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,720
Speaker 1: I did. That was one of the That was that

320
00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:17,920
Speaker 1: that was.

321
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,120
Speaker 2: A beautiful Brighton game. If there ever was a Brighton game.

322
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:26,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was it. No team total over seven and

323
00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,640
Speaker 1: a half, yeah, I think, But you know, you say

324
00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:31,760
Speaker 1: it a little tongue in cheek. But so Fallhom's plus

325
00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,360
Speaker 1: one thirty seven at home, Wolves plus two ten the

326
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:35,680
Speaker 1: draws plus two thirty.

327
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:37,920
Speaker 2: Let's just look at these numbers for both these teams.

328
00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,840
Speaker 2: Fulham has been, by their win loss record, one of

329
00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,720
Speaker 2: the best teams since the World Cup break. There's six wins,

330
00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:48,240
Speaker 2: one draw, two losses, a plus seven gold differential, only

331
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:52,720
Speaker 2: four goals, only four goals allowed in nine matches, thirteen

332
00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:56,840
Speaker 2: expected goals allowed since the break. Wolves, meanwhile, they've also

333
00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,040
Speaker 2: been solid win loss except for you know, we were

334
00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,080
Speaker 2: all over that boring miss by against Wolves last week.

335
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,320
Speaker 2: We were right about that. Wolves, though, that was only

336
00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:08,120
Speaker 2: their third loss in their last eight matches since the break,

337
00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:09,920
Speaker 2: four wins and a draw to go along with it,

338
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,360
Speaker 2: and they do have a plus one goal differential in

339
00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:16,600
Speaker 2: that span. Their expected goals differential is minus four point four, though,

340
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,400
Speaker 2: and they've only created eight point one expected goals against.

341
00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 2: So a very stoppable force versus a very movable object

342
00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:28,720
Speaker 2: at Craven Cottage, and I think this game has chaos

343
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 2: written on it. Here's what I'm gonna say. I don't hate.

344
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 2: This is going to sound extremely strange, but I don't

345
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,160
Speaker 2: hate a look at a nil nil draw. But I

346
00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 2: also don't hate like an alternate total a five and

347
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,960
Speaker 2: a half, because I think that the range of outcomes

348
00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,080
Speaker 2: in this game are so all over the place. You

349
00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,400
Speaker 2: could see you could see Wolves just you know, play

350
00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,440
Speaker 2: a snoozer and go in there with the sole intention

351
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:59,160
Speaker 2: of getting a point. You can see Fulham's defensive regression come.

352
00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 2: You could see wolves negative regression come like this. This

353
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,480
Speaker 2: this game, to me, is incredibly hard to kind of

354
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:11,240
Speaker 2: script out. And I think that's why betting the extreme outcomes,

355
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,399
Speaker 2: whether it's a nil nil or like a four to

356
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,720
Speaker 2: three win for Fulham or something like crazy like that

357
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 2: is the way to go. Uh, Anthony, what do you think?

358
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think you for all the reasons you mentioned.

359
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,200
Speaker 5: It's why it's one of the easier passes on the board.

360
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,439
Speaker 5: As we like to say, I just like Fulham has

361
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,160
Speaker 5: been slightly better than Wolves. They're better in my numbers.

362
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,280
Speaker 5: They're at home, so like I want to fade Fulham.

363
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:34,720
Speaker 4: Too, but like the number sucks.

364
00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:36,959
Speaker 5: Yeah, if they were like if they were like minus

365
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:38,920
Speaker 5: one ten, like, yeah, give me Wolves plus a half

366
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:39,400
Speaker 5: on the road.

367
00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:39,879
Speaker 1: Fine, But.

368
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 4: It's just kind of crazy. I mean when these two.

369
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 5: Teams played earlier in the year, Wolves was a was

370
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 5: a favorite and it ended in a nil nil draw.

371
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,560
Speaker 5: And I think Beetrovitch missed a penalty. It was like

372
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,360
Speaker 5: a very even dead game. I could very well see

373
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,960
Speaker 5: that playing out again. I think that's for me, that's

374
00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,920
Speaker 5: more likely than the easy like back and forth, naturally

375
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:05,159
Speaker 5: because it's Wolves, but I just think that, like of

376
00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:06,800
Speaker 5: all the matchups where I want to look to fade

377
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:08,880
Speaker 5: Fulham and then like we can pull up the schedule.

378
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 1: Oh I know the spot, yeah, and I have they.

379
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 5: Have leads in that cop they have leads in the

380
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 5: Cup next week and I'll be on leads probably and

381
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 5: then they go to Brentford, which will have his mortgage.

382
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,400
Speaker 1: I have second and his kids, his.

383
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 5: Newborn son's college fund on on Theford money line.

384
00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 4: So yeah, this is.

385
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,719
Speaker 2: Just bet responsibly.

386
00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:34,360
Speaker 4: Of course, yes, of course I would not do that,

387
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:35,640
Speaker 4: but I.

388
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:37,600
Speaker 1: Think not going to do that for everybody out there,

389
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 1: just for nose. It's tongue in cheek. I always gamble responsibly.

390
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,040
Speaker 4: But I'll be passing here.

391
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:48,560
Speaker 2: Okay, so you two passed. I think something weird at

392
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,760
Speaker 2: Craven Cottage is worth a look.

393
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,440
Speaker 1: I just don't like this team. They're just they make price.

394
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:54,919
Speaker 2: I mean there's a lot of teams you don't like.

395
00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:56,399
Speaker 2: We can go down the list at the end of

396
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 2: the year, we'll just make a list of all the

397
00:18:58,040 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 2: teams you don't like and and the teams you like,

398
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:01,359
Speaker 2: and there's going to be one team on the list

399
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,040
Speaker 2: that you do like. That's Everden there plus one fifty

400
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,480
Speaker 2: hosting aston Villa plus two hundred. The draw here is

401
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 2: plus two twenty and their two wins out of Sean

402
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:16,000
Speaker 2: Diyke Ditsche there they've held their opponents Arsenal and Leeds,

403
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 2: the best team in the Premier League this side of

404
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 2: Manchester City and Arsenal, and then a good offensive team

405
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 2: in Leeds, to total of one point three expected goles.

406
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 2: Didn't take long for Sean ditsch to come in here

407
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 2: and sink his teeth into this team. Everdon looked really

408
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 2: I thought really good against Leeds. I thought they looked

409
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:39,159
Speaker 2: really good against Arsenal, not so much against Liverpool. On

410
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 2: the road they're taking on aston Villa, who were coming

411
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,919
Speaker 2: into this one licking their wounds a bit. Three losses

412
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 2: in a row, tough slate with City and Arsenal, but

413
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 2: they gave up in those three losses nine expectacles against

414
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,719
Speaker 2: they should have. They could make the argument that they

415
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 2: were both outplayed and unlucky. Against Arsenal. Considering how things

416
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 2: transpired there with Emmy Martinez getting a little bit of

417
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 2: karmic retribution, it's wonderful heading the ball into his own net.

418
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,119
Speaker 2: I think Evertt's a good bet honestly, even as a

419
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: home favorite here. I think Disches has the team playing

420
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,400
Speaker 2: in the right direction. Maybe the market's starting to catch

421
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 2: up to their improvement. You gotta hope that Dominic Calvert

422
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 2: Leewin is back in the lineup at some point. But

423
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 2: I thought Neil Mopie actually was pretty good in that role,

424
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:32,120
Speaker 2: playing in the channels for Everden to get leads, and

425
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 2: they just this game obviously at Goodison Park should be

426
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,199
Speaker 2: a cauldrin not all that much for Villa to play for.

427
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 2: They'll probably be one of the first teams on the

428
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 2: beach this season. Not there yet, but I think there's

429
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 2: enough here pointing to Everton that they're worth a gander

430
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 2: at plus one fifty. Anthony, finally, is this your first

431
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:55,159
Speaker 2: bet on Everdon all season?

432
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 3: No?

433
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 4: No, I had them against Arsenal.

434
00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 2: There you go, second beat.

435
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 5: I'd have to look at calendar to see if there

436
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 5: was a third bet on Everton, but yes, I have Everton.

437
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 4: At home here once I apply like a little bit.

438
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 5: Of I have to like rig the numbers a little bit,

439
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 5: but I can make Everton up to like plus one

440
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 5: twenty five here at home. I actually don't think that

441
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 5: if you look at recent form, that these two teams

442
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,680
Speaker 5: have really been that different. BJ mentioned this last week,

443
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:20,959
Speaker 5: and I kind of poop pooed it, and I think

444
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 5: he had, you know, he made a decent point, like

445
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 5: aston Villa has not been better under Unai Emory then

446
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 5: they were under future PSG manager Steven Gerrard, and and

447
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 5: they have not gotten better defensively. And the attack continues

448
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 5: to kind of have the same exact problems that it

449
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 5: had under Gerard. I mean, they had a couple extra

450
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 5: like finishes from Watkins and various other characters, but like

451
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:50,360
Speaker 5: they still have very similar issues in getting the ball

452
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,120
Speaker 5: into the penalty area. Once they were able to kind

453
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 5: of have their nice little passes back and forth outside

454
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 5: of the penalty area, they're still you know, like thirteenth

455
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 5: and big scoring chances, thirteenth in box entries like this

456
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 5: is not a very good attacking team going on the

457
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 5: road against a much improved defense. You can make, you

458
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 5: can make a convincing case that Everton has the better

459
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 5: defense since I should come in and that the attacks

460
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 5: are pretty comparable in terms of talent, and they're at

461
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 5: home and I'm only laying minus one twenty two in

462
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 5: the drawn to bet line.

463
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 4: So yeah, I like the Toffees. I think I'm gonna

464
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 4: be joining you. Actually I am, I bet it already.

465
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,640
Speaker 2: BJA you thinking a little bit of chaos here?

466
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, Sean Ditsch versus and Iamori doesn't typically scream,

467
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 1: just like a high score affair. But hopefully I can

468
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:39,639
Speaker 1: explain this in a way where it'll actually make a

469
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 1: little bit of sense if it does. Who cares? So

470
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: last five matches, aston Villa has can conceded eleven point

471
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 1: two expectacles and I'm not even counting the Gabrielle Martinelli

472
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: tap in at the end of the game. That's how

473
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 1: bad it's been for Astonville last five matches and the

474
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: issues that have existed with aston Villa during this time span.

475
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,199
Speaker 1: I think why their defense has been so bad is

476
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 1: Uniyami plays a style like he did at Verriale, where

477
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: he wants to play out of the back, like he

478
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 1: wants to build out of the back. He doesn't want

479
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: to go along and aston Villa. The team they have

480
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 1: set up is the Steven Gerrard team that wants to

481
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 1: play very, very direct. So what you're seeing like matches

482
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 1: against Lester, like the match against Arsenal as well, where

483
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 1: they are just turning the ball over in their own area.

484
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 1: Guys like John McGinn and Jacob Ramsey are not your

485
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 1: prototypical Hey, let's drop this guy into the back line

486
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 1: and let's build out through him. They're more defensive type

487
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 1: midfielders who are not really that great with the ball

488
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: at their feet. I mean, you saw three of Uster's

489
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: four goals when they played them were off of high turnovers.

490
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 1: And listen, here's the thing about Sean Ditsche, Michael. Don't

491
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 1: think that Sean Diyche is going to just completely just

492
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,400
Speaker 1: sit deep and just let aston Villa have the ball

493
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 1: and build out with any resistance. Because the last three matches,

494
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 1: although it doesn't seem like much, their passes per defensive

495
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 1: action has been fourteen if you take away the match

496
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: against Arsenal, they've been under They've been under twelve against

497
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 1: both Liverpool and against Leeds, and they did have over

498
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 1: their three matches under Ditch, they have forced twenty three

499
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 1: high turnovers, and even you saw it against Arsenal, like

500
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 1: Joan Diysche was trying to push them up the pitch

501
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 1: to press so they we could stop Arsenal's build up play.

502
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: If the same thing happens, they're going to be able

503
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 1: to force those turnovers against aston Villa and create that

504
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: type of chaos. But here's my other thing about Everton.

505
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: Just because Sean Ditsch is here, doesn't mean that all

506
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 1: that negative aggression their defenses do for it is just

507
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 1: completely out the window. Like it's still the same players,

508
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,479
Speaker 1: still playing a four to four to two type system.

509
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 1: I mean, Everton has conceded thirty goals off of thirty

510
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 1: seven point one expected. Under Sean Ditche, It's been two

511
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 1: goals off of three point four expected. So I do

512
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 1: think there is some negative aggression still coming for Evertson.

513
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: I don't think that Sean Ditsch just immediately wipes all

514
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: that away and then we go back to the flip

515
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: side again. Aston Villa is aston Villa has conceded twelve

516
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 1: goals off of setpieces this season, So there are things

517
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: working against this aston Villae defense, like clockwork against Everyton.

518
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:00,719
Speaker 1: So I do like a better An Everton. But at

519
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:05,360
Speaker 1: the same time, Astonville's offense under Uniamri has been pretty good.

520
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 1: They've they've averaging around one point three five expecting goals

521
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. So with Everton's negative aggression on defense,

522
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 1: I actually do like a look at the over over

523
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: two and a half at plus one twenty five, I

524
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: project two point five goals right on for this match.

525
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 1: So if you give me over two and a half

526
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty five, I'm gonna take it over

527
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 1: with Sean Ditsch. Uniamori beautiful, beautifully put I I I

528
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: wonder if if you know the reputation that Dyke just

529
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: had with Burnley was what you said off the top,

530
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: which is sit deep, hang on, try to scratch out

531
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 1: at draw or you know, press, but the front the

532
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: front two strikers press quite a bit, and as you've

533
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: seen like Adresa, Ganagay and Onna, he pushes them up

534
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 1: the pitch like he doesn't just sit back.

535
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 2: And the point, the point I was gonna make is

536
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,360
Speaker 2: these are the most talented players he's probably ever had, right,

537
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 2: like he can do more with them, yep, than he

538
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: could like and love them.

539
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 4: I agree though, Like it wasn't like Arsenal.

540
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 5: We were able to just walk into the final third, get

541
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 5: the ball of Sokka and then kind of roll from there.

542
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 5: It was a lot of making the build up uncomfortable,

543
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 5: preventing the ball from getting to the wings. It was

544
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 5: a different kind of approach. And the thing about Everton,

545
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 5: and this is a Dice thing, Like Dice always beat

546
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 5: his XG at Burnley. They always had numbers in front

547
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 5: of the ball. They always blocked a lot of shots.

548
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 5: So I will be interested to see and like, obviously

549
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 5: some of the most of the XG from the pre

550
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 5: Dice erow was Pickford plus some bad finishing from opponents,

551
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 5: But I will be interested to see, like if that

552
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:39,439
Speaker 5: changes and how that impacts going forward, knowing what we

553
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 5: know about what Dice typically tended to do at Burnley.

554
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 2: The team Everton beat over the weekend with leads. They

555
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 2: are even money favorites at home hosting Southampton plus two eighty.

556
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: The draw is plus to fifty. This is the caretaker manageable, Yeah,

557
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 2: Rubert sellis and the conglomerate that's overseeing leads. Let's take

558
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 2: a look at the standings real quick for the race

559
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 2: for relegation. Southampton's still at the foot of the table,

560
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 2: propping it up at eighteen points. Leads nineteen, west Ham

561
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 2: twenty Those are your three teams currently in the drop zone.

562
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 2: Bournemouth just ahead at twenty one, as is Everdon Wolves

563
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 2: twenty three, Lesser twenty four, Forced twenty five, Crystal Palace

564
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 2: is twenty six. Southampton is still the Southampton Bournemouth are

565
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 2: still the favorites to go down. Leads has kind of

566
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 2: flopped places with flip flop places, with Everton as the

567
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 2: third team expected to go down. This is a weird one.

568
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pass here. I will say one thing I think,

569
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 2: for the most cases, like I wouldn't look too much

570
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 2: into you know, we expect a new manager bounce a

571
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 2: lot of times and it holds true or whatever. But

572
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 2: in this case, like I think it kind of would

573
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 2: ding both teams. This is a huge game. Obviously, relegation

574
00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 2: six pointer did not have, you know, an experienced manager

575
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 2: you're in charge to kind of set teams, set the

576
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 2: team up to play one out, play a six point out.

577
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 2: So it's a little strange. I don't think Leeds should

578
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 2: be this short, but the price on Southampton still isn't

579
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 2: isn't all that good. So it's a it's a pass

580
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 2: for me here, Anthony. Any thoughts here Leeds United in Southampton.

581
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 5: Do we know if if Garcia is going to manage

582
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 5: this match as of twelve hours ago, he still needs

583
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 5: to get his work permits.

584
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have no idea.

585
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, I I so we don't know.

586
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 5: I mean no matter what, like he's going to like

587
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 5: show up on Friday and manage on Saturday. Like there's

588
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 5: no like training that he can really, there's.

589
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 4: No change, right.

590
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 5: The crowd might a while as he comes onto the

591
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 5: pitch type thing. But I'll be anxiot to see what

592
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,959
Speaker 5: we get from from Jobby Garcia. But yeah, you can

593
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 5: you can sell me on an over here. These are

594
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 5: two teams that have probably been the you know Leeds

595
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 5: Southampton west Ham or the three like you look at

596
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 5: the board and you're like, okay. These teams have played

597
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 5: much better than their results and most of leeds problems

598
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 5: have been finishing and not taking their chances. Southampton is

599
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 5: still kind of playing similarly to the point where they

600
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 5: will try to disrupt possession press and we could get

601
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 5: a bunch of high turnovers in this match and it

602
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 5: wouldn't shock me if you're getting a lot of like

603
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 5: back and forth. But then again on the other hand,

604
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 5: like it is a relegation six pointer, and like not

605
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 5: losing is more important than than kind of winning here,

606
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 5: and you know, not letting your opponent get the three points.

607
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 5: So my projections are actually pretty close to the number,

608
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 5: like a tiny bit on the over and like I

609
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 5: could see the case for it, but this is probably

610
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 5: end up being a pass for me as well.

611
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 2: Lesser City BJR plus three seventy five they are host

612
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 2: hosting Arsenal want thirty, I want forty three. The draw

613
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,479
Speaker 2: three to one. I've got nothing, so flip it over

614
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 2: to you.

615
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 1: I like Arsenal. I think the price is too short

616
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: on them, quite honestly, just like it. This is literally

617
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: I mean, I know Arsenal closes in a much shorter number,

618
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 1: but Arsenal was minus one thirty five on the road

619
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: against aston Villa in a horrible spot and now they're

620
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: essentially the exact same price on the money line. And Arsenal,

621
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 1: I know it was very back and forth, but they

622
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: pummeled aston Villa. Like the final score line won't say

623
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 1: that obviously, but they controlled sixty seven percent possession the

624
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: outshot Villa twenty seven. They outouched in the penalty box

625
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: forty four to ten on the road, Lester. That was

626
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: one of the worst performing I mean, we've had seen

627
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: some bad performances in Lester this season. That was the

628
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 1: worst one they've had all season long. Against Manchester United

629
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: on Sunday, they conceded four point one expected goals, four

630
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 1: big scoring chances, and nineteen of Manchester United shot of

631
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: twenty five shots came inside the penalty area. So after

632
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: that dismal performance, Lester takes the crown. They are the

633
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 1: new dead last and non penalty expected goals per match

634
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 1: in the Premier League one point sixty four per ninety

635
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 1: and they have been overperforming offensively. As of late. Last

636
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 1: four matches they have scored ten goals off of six

637
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 1: point four expected and pretty much all of them came

638
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: in that four goals against Tottenham off of what one

639
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: point four to one point five expected. And the thing

640
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: about Lester is, listen, they're a very good team at

641
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 1: controlling possesion. Guys like Tilman's and Madison are very good

642
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 1: at progressing involve the pitch. But they aren't very good

643
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: and you saw it against United. They aren't very good

644
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,959
Speaker 1: when they have to sit into a low block and

645
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: defend for a majority of the match, which you know

646
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: they out of possession. They are playing a four to

647
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: four to two, they will try and press you high,

648
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: which is a dangerous game to play against Arsenal given

649
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 1: how good they are playing through pressure. Because Lester is

650
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: a very average pressing team, they're ten to pass per

651
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: defensive action and offensively for Lester, the problems that exist

652
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,719
Speaker 1: for them really come in the final third. They're very

653
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 1: good at getting the ball into the final third, but

654
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: once they're there, they don't have a clinical finisher that's

655
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 1: able to get on the end of the day or

656
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 1: even create a good quality chance. They're eighth and final

657
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: third entries, but seventeenth and final third box entry conversion rate,

658
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 1: and that's why you see Lester is leading the Premier

659
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 1: League with ten goals from outside the box and Lester

660
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 1: is also second to last in the Premier League an

661
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 1: x cheaper set piece, which is bad news because that

662
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: is where Arsenal's weakest on defense and Lester can be

663
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: dangerous in transition. But it looks like Thomas Party is

664
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: going to be back for this match, which is good

665
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: news for Arsenal, so they'll be able to defend much

666
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: better in transition against Leicester. I mean as for the

667
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: Lester defense, they were obviously bad against United. They're one

668
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 1: of the worst set piece defenses in the Premier League,

669
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: which is bad news again against Arsenal, who's number one

670
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 1: and next cheaper set piece. And the last time these

671
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,479
Speaker 1: two teams faced off it was August. Granted it's been

672
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: a long time, but Arsenal destroyed Lester. I mean it

673
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 1: was a four to two. It really wasn't that close.

674
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 1: They created two point five exped goals, they tilted the

675
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: field at seventy four percent, fifteen shots inside the penalty area.

676
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: So I think this price is way too low on Arsenal.

677
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: I've then projected minus one sixty six, so I like

678
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 1: the value on them at minus one thirty five.

679
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 5: West h it's a little too real quick any we

680
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 5: want to guess who is first in the prem in

681
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 5: non penalty x G plus expected assists per ninety this season?

682
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: Oh Nana, No, I'll go.

683
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 4: BRN Finance Darwin Nunez.

684
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, his actually nineties insane and he's got some decent assists. Yeah.

685
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 4: Now this is the set you want to gets.

686
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: Who number two is James.

687
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 5: You'll never get it. But he plays in this match,

688
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 5: he will play on Saturday. Collecchi Iacho.

689
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean he's always he's always got the

690
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 2: great underlying metrics. He's yeah, he's a great player.

691
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 4: Since he's come into the team, Leicester's been better attacking wise.

692
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 4: Their defense is still terrible. Idj uh, you could sell

693
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 4: me on and over here.

694
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 2: I feel like we do the song and dance with

695
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 2: with both Ileanacho and and Leicester for four seasons in

696
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 2: a round. Now. He's always got great, you know, underlying metrics.

697
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 2: But I know they don't play him.

698
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 5: They score when he I know though, and they didn't

699
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 5: score against United, but they had a good attacking performance.

700
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 4: They just couldn't stop you I did.

701
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 2: It's just it's one of those things where he always

702
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 2: puts up these sparkling kind of you know, underlying numbers.

703
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,760
Speaker 2: People say someone he should either play or they should

704
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 2: transfer him, and whoever buys them, we'll get like a

705
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 2: diamond and the rough kind of thing, and then he'll

706
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 2: go to that next team and sputter out and.

707
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:21,240
Speaker 4: He hasn't gone anywhere.

708
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,879
Speaker 2: But that's just that's just how these things go, how

709
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 2: these things always go. Next year, No, no, we'll be

710
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 2: betting him, trust me, trust me, we will be betting

711
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 2: him for the Golden Boot when he's playing for west Ham.

712
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 1: Him and him and Ocechman up top for Nigeria. They're

713
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 1: gonna win af CONN next January. But we'll talk.

714
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 2: About that, Yeah, the Afcon special. We'll be out in.

715
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 1: Travesty that played this summer by the way.

716
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, now let's talk about west Ham minus

717
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 2: one thirty four hosting Steve Cooper's Noddingham forced four to one,

718
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 2: the draws plus t sixty fours, the tricky trees with

719
00:34:55,560 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 2: a tricky tie against Manchester City over the weekend. Its woods.

720
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 1: It's beautiful, it's great, like.

721
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 2: The whole idea of destiny and you're just so you

722
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 2: just end up doing something and it's like Chris Wood's

723
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 2: whole life led to that goal. He had to go

724
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 2: through Burnley to Newcastle to get to Knightingham Force to

725
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 2: score that goal against man City in a game that

726
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,359
Speaker 2: they had no business being. It was it was something else. Yeah,

727
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: kaylor Novice.

728
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 1: Finally I will say still sinks.

729
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 5: But the keeper, the keeper is worth like eight goals

730
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 5: a game now, so how do you even project that team?

731
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 1: I don't know.

732
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 2: This could be David Moys's less stand for west Ham.

733
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 2: Like I said, they're in the drop zone twenty points

734
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 2: and they are an odds on favorite at home. So

735
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 2: if they don't get a win here, look out for

736
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 2: our friend the blue eyed Scott David Moyes force. In

737
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 2: terms of goals actual goals still playing very low event

738
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 2: fifteen total in eight games since the break, seven for

739
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 2: eight against I think west Ham actually makes it okay,

740
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 2: like they don't score enough to make me feel comfortable

741
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 2: laying it with them. But if you wanted to, like

742
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 2: throw them in a parlay with Arsenal or something, go

743
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 2: for it. But that's honestly the only angle I can

744
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 2: come up with in this game. And that's a shame

745
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 2: because these are two teams that I've had a bet

746
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 2: on quite a bit this season, so it's it's likely

747
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 2: a pass for me. BJ. What are your thoughts?

748
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 1: No, I haven't done both teams score no in a while,

749
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: so let's do it here minus one twenty Yeah, you

750
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 1: mentioned it, west Ham. When we can get to the

751
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: point where we can get a good number of them,

752
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,360
Speaker 1: not to be relegated. I'm gonna fire on that, but

753
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: we're not there yet. They've been playing a difficult schedule

754
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 1: last three matches against Newcastle, Chelsea and Tottenham. So obviously

755
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 1: when they you know, draw against both Newcastle and Chelsea

756
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: and then lose on the road to Tottenham, it's like,

757
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 1: oh my gosh, west Ham is still bad. But like, okay,

758
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 1: they've played a difficult schedule. But if you look at

759
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: the previous two matches before that, they did very good

760
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 1: defensive job against both Wolves and Everton. They only held

761
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: those two teams who combined one point four expected goals.

762
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 1: And I have major major question marks about Nottingham Forrest

763
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 1: his ability to create high qality chances. And here's a

764
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 1: tribute question for you guys. How many goals do you

765
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: think Nottingham Forrest has scored on the road this season?

766
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 2: Five single digits seven.

767
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 1: Three They have scored three and they have come against Bournemouth, Everton, Southampton,

768
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:35,479
Speaker 1: taywo Owen. Now he is still out, so it's gonna

769
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:39,280
Speaker 1: be Chris Wad up top once again. And this Nottingham

770
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 1: Forrest offense, it's just purely thriving off of counter tacks

771
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances like they are tenth and brillion

772
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 1: big scoring chances, fifteenth and non penalty expected goals, but

773
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 1: they're dead last and final third entries. They're dead last

774
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:57,280
Speaker 1: in box entries, they're dead last and expected threat So now,

775
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: how are they supposed to threaten one of the best

776
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 1: defensive teams in this league?

777
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 2: I just don't see it.

778
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 1: And west Ham, you know, west Ham has struggled offensively,

779
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: but they're one of these teams that just cannot turn

780
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 1: final third possession into any type of scoring chance. I mean,

781
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 1: they are dead last in the Premier League in final

782
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 1: third to box entry conversion rate, and I know what

783
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 1: Nottingham forrest is allowing a ton of final third entries,

784
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 1: but they are eighth in that same category defensively, and

785
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 1: I found this interesting. West Ham has switched the play

786
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: at the fourth highest rate in the Premier League, which

787
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 1: just shows you that, yes, they are do a good

788
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: job of trying to get around you know, low blocks

789
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 1: and everything like that, but it also tells me that

790
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: they're not very good at playing short passes and trying

791
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 1: to play through the middle against teams, and they're not

792
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: that technically sound at trying to break down a low block,

793
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 1: So Forest is gonna sit deep. It's gonna be a

794
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 1: five to three to two Taylor Novice is a net

795
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,359
Speaker 1: against a west Ham offense that I have major question

796
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 1: marks about their ability to break down a low block.

797
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 1: So I have both teams to score. No projected at

798
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 1: minus one sixty three, So at minus one twenty, I

799
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 1: think there's some value there under a half nine to one.

800
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 2: It just erious. You're here in the in the exact

801
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 2: opposite of that Fulham Wolves game, like this one feels

802
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 2: pretty pretty easy to script out.

803
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 1: I was trying to get make my notes. I was like,

804
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 1: I was like, you know, I was like, you know,

805
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 1: not n Forrest's offense hasn't really been that good. You know,

806
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 1: nine expected goals from twelve away matches, and I was like, wait,

807
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 1: still that good? And I know it's still not good,

808
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: but I was like, looking through the other results, I'm like, wait,

809
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,919
Speaker 1: when did they score? And just like and I looked

810
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 1: at it, I was like, oh, it's been three three

811
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 1: goals for twenty five against wife from home for not

812
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 1: Eham forced.

813
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 2: Quick round, quick ground of applause, actually maybe like a

814
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,399
Speaker 2: thirty to forty five minute round of applause. For Born

815
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 2: with what a win last week against Wolves was in

816
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 2: the under and the under said Wolves under it was Man.

817
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 2: Those are the spots you dream of as a cynical

818
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:59,720
Speaker 2: Premier League better and then how do you get rewarded?

819
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: You get to reward rewarded with a date with Man

820
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 2: City at home. Uh. Man City is minus three fifty

821
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:08,720
Speaker 2: on the road, Born with nine to one the draws

822
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 2: plus four to seventy five Cities traveling from Germany where

823
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 2: they drew one one with Leipzig in the Champions League.

824
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 2: Hope that everybody got their Leipzig one hundred to one

825
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:24,760
Speaker 2: tickets in before that match, because it's coming through nothing

826
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 2: for me here though, in Bournemouth and City it's just Man.

827
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 1: Maybe michaelbov special though.

828
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: Maybe give me maybe give me like fourteen to one

829
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 2: on Bournemouth if it gets there.

830
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's not there.

831
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 2: Yeah exactly, So I'll be I'll be uh passing here.

832
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 2: But Anthony, you're going right back to the well to

833
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 2: your boys from the south coast.

834
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's gonna be a small play on Bournemouth for

835
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 5: me on the spread. I just think that, uh, we've

836
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 5: seen it time and time and time again. We don't

837
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 5: know the status of Kevin de Branna, and with him out,

838
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 5: this city attack has been really bad. I mean they're

839
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:01,720
Speaker 5: not getting anything from Mares. I know he's but today

840
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 5: against Leipzig, but like the ball progression numbers are down

841
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 5: for him, the shot numbers are down for him per ninety.

842
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:11,320
Speaker 5: They're not getting a ton of shots from Grealish. Grealish

843
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 5: being you know, a good a sister, a good creator,

844
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 5: but not getting shots from him.

845
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 4: Debrona is questionable at best.

846
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 5: It looks like for this match they're I mean, that's

847
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 5: another piece of the puzzle here that they're missing, and

848
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 5: it's kind of just the Earling Holland show.

849
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 4: And Holland has regressed a bit.

850
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 5: I mean, nobody really thought he would keep up the

851
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 5: pace that he was putting up in the first half

852
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 5: of the season. He's still very capable goal scorer, of course,

853
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 5: but his actually numbers, if you if you trot it out,

854
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 5: they've declined a decent bit here. He's shaved about twenty

855
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 5: percent per ninety off of what he was that you know,

856
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 5: the peak in the fall, and I think you know,

857
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,839
Speaker 5: you're starting to see the manifestation of that. Yes, they

858
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 5: created over two expected goals against Forrest should have won

859
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 5: the match, no doubt about it. But I actually think

860
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 5: this is a similar situation going on the road against

861
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 5: a Bournemouth team that has shown some signs of counterattacking life,

862
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,919
Speaker 5: and I think, you know, with City potentially hung over here,

863
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 5: you're gonna get a good effort from the Cherries at home.

864
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:10,959
Speaker 5: This is like game of the year type stuff for them.

865
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 5: So yeah, plus plus one point seven five. I'm gonna

866
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 5: wait a little bit see if I can't get two

867
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 5: with a little bit less juice. But yeah, plus one

868
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 5: and a half one point seven five good enough for

869
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:21,240
Speaker 5: me on the Cherries at home.

870
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:24,879
Speaker 4: What's the Cherries to score here? Let me see both

871
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 4: team to.

872
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 5: Score minus one ten. It's intriguing as well. I do

873
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 5: see this as like a City to one type win.

874
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 1: Okay if I say this, if Bournemouth gets to plus

875
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 1: two at any type of decent number, I will be

876
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: on that in a heartbeat.

877
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like minus one fifty right now.

878
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: So that gets down to minus one thirty, I'll do it.

879
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,759
Speaker 2: We'll ride, we will, and we will ride it to

880
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 2: the twelve thirty kickoff on Saturday, which is the Christane

881
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 2: Bull match up between Crystal Palace and Liverpool. This is

882
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,840
Speaker 2: at Palace at Selhurst Park. Palace is plus three seventy

883
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 2: five at home, the Liverpool is minus one thirty eight

884
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 2: draws plus two eighty Liverpool Anthony coming off of a

885
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 2: hilarious yet predictable loss to Real Madrid for all of us,

886
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,720
Speaker 2: well that's I mean, this is what your third Champions

887
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,320
Speaker 2: League ever watching, So you just don't you don't, You

888
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 2: don't know how these things go yet, like we ever.

889
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 5: Want to bet against Real Madrid in the I look

890
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 5: at that in the knockouts and you know.

891
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 2: It's beautiful scene don Carlo, you know, talking about how

892
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 2: he's an Evertonian so these matches mean a lot to

893
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 2: him after the game too, of beautiful stuff.

894
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 4: Great week for the pod except for my Liverpool. But

895
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 4: I think we hit every bet except for that one.

896
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Islanders are rolling. This is high times for

897
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 2: Dewey Crowe got justified.

898
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 1: By Northwestern but that's okay.

899
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 2: I don't think you can lay minus one thirty eight

900
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 2: with Liverpool on the road in the spot and I

901
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 2: know Palace is a mess defensively, but so we're Liverpool,

902
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 2: so this is a Palace or nothing. Spot for me.

903
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 2: Maybe the Liverpool money will show up as we get

904
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 2: closer to kickoff and you can get Palace at an

905
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 2: even better price. But man, they cannot stop anybody going

906
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 2: the other way. One mistake for Liverpool and it ends

907
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 2: up in the back of their net. It's it's kind

908
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 2: of nice, bj you're kind of head in that direction.

909
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I'm gonna give our winter goal. Wister's

910
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:30,400
Speaker 1: a little peak behind the curtain. You know what I

911
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 1: did for my notes for this one, I literally just

912
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 1: took the copy and paste from the Real Madrid match

913
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 1: in the Newcastle match for Liverpool's defense and offense, because

914
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 1: nothing's changed at all, Like what happened against Real Madrid

915
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 1: is what's been happening to Liverpool all season long. They

916
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 1: are not the Liverpool defense they were last year. They

917
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 1: even for the first part of the season Allison was

918
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:56,320
Speaker 1: running ridiculously hot and suddenly he's not so now balls

919
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 1: just keep going in the back of the net over

920
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 1: and over and over again. When you consistently allow to

921
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 1: expected goals, to Wolves, to Newcastle, to a host of

922
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 1: whole other teams throughout the Premier League, to Brighton. What

923
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 1: happens when you play Real Madrid. Those type of things

924
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 1: happen necessarily, you know, put five goals in the back

925
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 1: of the net, but those type of teams are going

926
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 1: to be able to create chances. And it also shows

927
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 1: that Liverpool is just really, really bad in transition defense.

928
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 1: And I think there's something that happened to the Everton match, Michael,

929
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,399
Speaker 1: that I think is very very interesting for this type

930
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 1: of matches. There were portions of the second half where

931
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 1: Everton was sitting a little deeper and they were trying

932
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 1: to compact it in against Liverpool. And what Liverpool was

933
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: doing is they were taking their center backs as main

934
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:40,879
Speaker 1: ball progressors and they were trying to break the first

935
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 1: line of defense and basically get balls in between the

936
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,840
Speaker 1: lines obviously create that space for Sala and Nunyes, which

937
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 1: as we've seen from Liverpool this season, is that when

938
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 1: you don't have a good transition defenders, and when you

939
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 1: have Trent Allenson, Arnold and Robertson as your two main

940
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 1: cover guys, if your center backs try to be the

941
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 1: ball progressors, that leaves a ton of space in behind

942
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 1: for attackers to go at you. So listen, I tried

943
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 1: to make it. I'm trying really hard to make a

944
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 1: case here for Crystal Palace's offense. I can't really do

945
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: that other than that they've been okay in transition offense,

946
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 1: like they are tenth and final third to box entry

947
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 1: conversion rate. That does tell me that you know, once

948
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 1: you get the ball in the final third, you are

949
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 1: able to get the peld A lot of that probably

950
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: comes from transition for Crystal Palace. And the flip side

951
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,399
Speaker 1: is though that Liverpool's offense is still really really good

952
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 1: at creating chances, like they have created fifteen point seven

953
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 1: expected goals in their last eight matches, but if only

954
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: scored nine. And obviously Darman Nuniez has had his struggles

955
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 1: in front of net, but he had a great goal

956
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:40,760
Speaker 1: against Real Madrid. And if Liverpool is going to consistently

957
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:43,399
Speaker 1: keep putting up to two and a half expected goals,

958
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:44,959
Speaker 1: they're going to break through and they're going to score

959
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 1: three four against some team. And what better team to

960
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 1: do it than against Crystal Palace. So I have a

961
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 1: way over three goals projected for this. I actually have

962
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 1: three point five goals projected, so over two and a

963
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 1: half at minus one twenty five I think is a

964
00:46:56,239 --> 00:47:01,360
Speaker 1: very very low number given how bad the Liverpool defense is,

965
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 1: how bad the Crystal Palace defenses, and then how good

966
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 1: Liverpool's offense has been at creating chances.

967
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 2: Smells like an alternate total here. All right, that wraps

968
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 2: up the Premier League. I was wrong. That game is

969
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:15,240
Speaker 2: actually a two forty five eastern on Saturday. The City

970
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 2: Boorn Myth game is twelve thirty, So we get that

971
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 2: twelve two forty five game back. Maybe you're in clap

972
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 2: complained about not having enough time because they're playing the

973
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 2: Champions League or something. Uh, let's talk about the Buddhesliga.

974
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:32,280
Speaker 2: Let's start with you bjuh with your favorite bet in Germany.

975
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 1: Well, how about we go to the headliner. It's for

976
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 1: it's for first place in the title. Bayern Munich against

977
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:38,760
Speaker 1: Unyan Berlin.

978
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 2: Uh.

979
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 1: What a hilarious match to close out the Bundesliga slate.

980
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 1: This is surprisingly to say it's a bad spot for

981
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:48,879
Speaker 1: Unjan Berlin. This is their fourth match in twelve days.

982
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 1: To the Europa League match with i AX, they have

983
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: to travel to Ansterdam and now they're coming back to Byron,

984
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 1: who has a full week's rest. I mean, we've been

985
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 1: over the song and dance over and over and over

986
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 1: again with Union Berlin Feiel on this podcast. But they

987
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: are the number one defense in Germany by non penalty

988
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: expected goals an online point ninety five, in the highest

989
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 1: scoring league in Europe's top five leagues. And the reason

990
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 1: they are so good is because they play a five

991
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 1: man back line. They pack in the middle. They don't

992
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:15,439
Speaker 1: allow you to play through the middle of pitch, which

993
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,399
Speaker 1: is what Byron wants mainly wants to do. And they're

994
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 1: the number one team in Germany in final third to

995
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 1: penalty box conversion rate at twenty two percent, which is

996
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:27,240
Speaker 1: the best mark, third best mark across Europe. They've recently

997
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 1: just held Leipzig too point six expected goals. They held

998
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: i Ax in the first leg two point seven expected goals.

999
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 1: So I don't think there's a world. I mean, obviously

1000
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 1: everybody says, oh, Byron's gonna pound them four nothing, five nothing.

1001
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 1: There is a world where Byron struggles to create chances

1002
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 1: against this defense. And Byron's defense is obviously very vulnerable

1003
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,359
Speaker 1: in transition, and that's the main way on Jon Blin

1004
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 1: wants to get at you. And we know the story

1005
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 1: about them at this point, but they're second to last

1006
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: and ext per ninety, they've created the fewest big scoring chances,

1007
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 1: but I found this quite hilarious. They've completed seventy five

1008
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 1: crosses into the penalty area. The next closest is Shauka

1009
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 1: at fifty two, so they are just get the ball

1010
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 1: out wide and swinging cross after cross after cross. Byron

1011
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: is the second best defense in the Bundesliga, only one

1012
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:17,919
Speaker 1: point zero three down penaltgues spect goals for ninety, which

1013
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 1: for them is not that great. It's up from last season,

1014
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 1: but they are the number one team in the Bundesliga

1015
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:26,320
Speaker 1: at defending crosses in their penalty area and then the

1016
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 1: number one team in Bundesliga and aerial dual one percentage.

1017
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 1: And the last time these two teams met it was

1018
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:35,440
Speaker 1: a one to one draw. Byron held seventy four percent possession.

1019
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,600
Speaker 1: They took twenty one shots, but not one of those

1020
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 1: twenty one shots had next year rating over point two,

1021
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 1: so I think we're gonna see a very similar story here.

1022
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 1: I like both teams to score No. One of my

1023
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 1: favorite bets and one of my favorite matches the weekend

1024
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 1: and minus one ten. I think that's kind of quite

1025
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:55,760
Speaker 1: low for the two best defenses in Germany.

1026
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 2: I have a bet in that match too, but I'll

1027
00:49:58,040 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 2: save it for later in the show.

1028
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 5: And what about you going back to Cologne once again.

1029
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 5: I think it's the third time in four weeks that

1030
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:06,320
Speaker 5: I bet them.

1031
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 4: Avoided a horrendous.

1032
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 5: Spot at Stutegart last week where they pretty much got pasted,

1033
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 5: but now they come home, and I did find it

1034
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 5: interesting that they actually took money despite getting pasted by

1035
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 5: Stutegart last weekend. This is also a bet against Wolfsburg.

1036
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 5: This line has come down a little bit. Cone is

1037
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,720
Speaker 5: now on the draw no bet line minus one forty,

1038
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 5: but I'm okay with the money line at plus one

1039
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:32,479
Speaker 5: thirty five as well. I actually make Cone right around

1040
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:34,400
Speaker 5: even money in this game, so I was pretty floored

1041
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,919
Speaker 5: by the original opener. I think they're a better team

1042
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 5: than Wolfsburg and at home. Once I apply that, I

1043
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:44,400
Speaker 5: get down to about even money. Wolfsburg's attack bolstered on

1044
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 5: some really good finishing of late, but they have not

1045
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,879
Speaker 5: been a particularly good team under Kovach either, So yeah,

1046
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:50,839
Speaker 5: give me Cologne.

1047
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:52,279
Speaker 4: At home once again.

1048
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:56,719
Speaker 5: I backed the boys at home, and you know I'd

1049
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 5: be remiss if I didn't also take a victory lap.

1050
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:01,200
Speaker 1: Quick of course, please do.

1051
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 4: Brushia Mouching gladvach Man. I mean, I'm out of words.

1052
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 4: It was just beautiful.

1053
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 5: I was fighting back tears when Marcus Turram scored the

1054
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 5: goal to put them up three to one to cash

1055
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:16,040
Speaker 5: the six to one to beat Byron again. I know

1056
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 5: there was a red card in the ninth minute, but

1057
00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:20,919
Speaker 5: everything we've talked about where Byron doesn't create high quality

1058
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 5: chances like they normally do. They're so vulnerable and transition defensively.

1059
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 5: Daily Blind is going to start a Champions League match

1060
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:32,439
Speaker 5: against PSG in that back line against Messi and Bop

1061
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 5: and neymar Oh my goodness, but yes, it's going to

1062
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:38,959
Speaker 5: be a lot of fun. But Saturday was so much fun.

1063
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:40,880
Speaker 5: I know a lot of people on Twitter who probably

1064
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 5: don't know or didn't know who Rush too Much in

1065
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:46,279
Speaker 5: Gladbach was until probably they listened to this podcast are

1066
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 5: now fans of the Foals.

1067
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:50,320
Speaker 4: And it was just so beautiful.

1068
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 5: So thank you all for who joined in on the fun.

1069
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 5: And maybe next time we'll get BJ into.

1070
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:56,840
Speaker 3: It.

1071
00:51:57,000 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 2: Was it was. It was a fun time. It's almost

1072
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,400
Speaker 2: a party warn myth too. Oh yeah, it was so

1073
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:04,480
Speaker 2: close to being a party.

1074
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 1: Only Yeah, fricking made a penalty would have been a

1075
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 1: bigger party.

1076
00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 2: We'll talk about Sampdorius League now a Syria ABJ. What

1077
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 2: do you got?

1078
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 1: I like an essay minus one plus one to five

1079
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:20,279
Speaker 1: against Spezia. The student Essa team was really hot to

1080
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 1: begin the season and they've just completely cooled off and

1081
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:24,879
Speaker 1: they're going through a very difficult stretch. They've won one

1082
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 1: match since October third, and it came against Samptorio, funny

1083
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,719
Speaker 1: enough on the road. If you look at who they've

1084
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:34,800
Speaker 1: faced at home during this bad stretch, they've been very,

1085
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:38,360
Speaker 1: very unlucky. The last six matches at home they have

1086
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 1: failed to win. They faced Torino, Leche and Poli, Bologna,

1087
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 1: Verona and Sasulo, essentially all mid table two relegation fodder

1088
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 1: type teams. They have a minus two actual differential, but

1089
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 1: their expected goal differential in those four matches is plus

1090
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,080
Speaker 1: four point six, so they are due for a ton

1091
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 1: of positive aggression. Spetsy is an interesting team because they

1092
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 1: will press you high eleventh pass per defensive action, fourth

1093
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 1: and ball recoveries, and sixth in high turnovers. But if

1094
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 1: you can play through that pressure, they're really really bad defensively,

1095
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:11,799
Speaker 1: especially is allowing one point six non penalty expectacles per

1096
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 1: ninety let's say eighteenth in Syria A to also allowing

1097
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 1: the most shots for ninety and most importantly, they're dead

1098
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:19,920
Speaker 1: last in final third two penalty box entry conversion rate,

1099
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:23,000
Speaker 1: which is a category Udenesse is third at offensively in

1100
00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 1: Syria A. Udinesse is also a team that can really

1101
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 1: posses the ball and tilt the field on you if

1102
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:30,520
Speaker 1: you are one of these smaller sides like spets. The

1103
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 1: other's sixth in FIE field tilt and against teams in

1104
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: the bottom half the table, they're holding fifty five percent

1105
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 1: possession on average, also top six team and progressive passes

1106
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 1: and dribbles per ninety and expected threats. So I don't

1107
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:43,880
Speaker 1: really have any worries about them being able to move

1108
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:45,239
Speaker 1: the ball at the pitch. Once they're able to play

1109
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 1: through this Betsia pressure, I think they'll be able to

1110
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:49,399
Speaker 1: threaten their penalty area over and over and over again,

1111
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 1: and they're due for a lot of positive aggressions. So

1112
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:53,719
Speaker 1: I have uden Essa spread projected at minus one point

1113
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:55,799
Speaker 1: two four So minus one plus one oh five is

1114
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 1: good enough for me.

1115
00:53:57,160 --> 00:53:59,680
Speaker 2: Uh la liga. Oh no, Anthony, you have you have

1116
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 2: a sea for us don't you.

1117
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:02,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Milan plays at Alanta.

1118
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:06,800
Speaker 5: Milan's had three straight one zero wins in both the

1119
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 5: Champions League and Syria combined.

1120
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 4: They now host Atlanta. They're a plus one fifteen favorite.

1121
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 5: Once I, you know, powerrate these teams and then add

1122
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 5: in a home field, I make Adelanta the better team,

1123
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:20,520
Speaker 5: and I have this pretty much at a coin flip

1124
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:24,759
Speaker 5: once applying home field. Atlanta isn't the Atlanta old This

1125
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:26,960
Speaker 5: is not your older brothers, Atlanta. This is not the

1126
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 5: you know, the team we fell in love with in

1127
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:32,279
Speaker 5: the late twenty tens. They have gone over quite a

1128
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 5: squad change, and they are now really not a pressing

1129
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 5: team or a possession team. They're right in the middle

1130
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 5: of the pack and possession right in the middle of

1131
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:42,279
Speaker 5: the pack in a pass completion percentage allowed press for

1132
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:46,439
Speaker 5: defensive action. But they still contain and continue to have

1133
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 5: excellent numbers in each penalty area. They had a weird

1134
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:53,280
Speaker 5: loss at Letch a pretty unlucky played down a man into.

1135
00:54:53,160 --> 00:54:54,359
Speaker 4: Swallow had a loss there too.

1136
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:55,600
Speaker 5: I think this is a good spot for them to

1137
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:58,160
Speaker 5: get right here on the road and what I think

1138
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 5: is a pretty coin flippy game. So I Atlanta plus

1139
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:02,040
Speaker 5: a half. You have to lay a little bit of

1140
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 5: juice minus one thirty five one. But I'm okay with

1141
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 5: it because I do like the spot for Atlanta. So

1142
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:11,400
Speaker 5: give me ladeya once again at the boys from Bergenham.

1143
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:14,440
Speaker 2: All right, now we can go La Liga bj.

1144
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go oh soon A plus half a goal

1145
00:55:17,080 --> 00:55:19,319
Speaker 1: in the road against Savilla. So out of the World

1146
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 1: Cup break, Savilla's had three good showings. They dismantled LCH

1147
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:26,279
Speaker 1: Cadiz and Majorca at home. Every other match has been

1148
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:29,880
Speaker 1: the usual below average Savilla. They beat PSV in the

1149
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 1: first leg of the Europa League. They scored three goals

1150
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:35,759
Speaker 1: off a point nine expected. They went to the Vacana

1151
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 1: over the weekend got completely dominated in the second half

1152
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 1: with one to one draw. I outshot eleven to two

1153
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:43,360
Speaker 1: in the final forty five minutes. Now they're coming home

1154
00:55:43,600 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 1: after playing the second leg of the Europa League knockout playoffs.

1155
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 1: It's be their fifth match in fifteen days. And guess

1156
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 1: what they're not going to be be prioritizing La Liga anymore.

1157
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 1: Like there's no way they're going to catch the top four,

1158
00:55:56,440 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 1: even a European spot. They're pretty comfortably now out of

1159
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 1: the relegatece fight. So it's Europa League or nothing now

1160
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:06,279
Speaker 1: for Sevilla, which they past history has shown that they

1161
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:09,560
Speaker 1: are very good in that type of competition. But Savilla

1162
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:13,240
Speaker 1: is an offense that really struggles turning final third possession

1163
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,319
Speaker 1: and in type of high quality scoring chances. Their top five

1164
00:56:15,360 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 1: and expected threat and final third entries, but seventeenth and

1165
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:22,240
Speaker 1: final third box entry conversion rate which means they're thirteenth

1166
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:24,879
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances and only averaging one point zero

1167
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:27,319
Speaker 1: eight non peviagu expect goals for ninety oh. Soon is

1168
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:30,520
Speaker 1: a top six defense in La Liga by expected goals.

1169
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:32,600
Speaker 1: They don't allow a ton of shots. They defend crosses

1170
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:35,480
Speaker 1: at a top five level, which is really big against Sevilla,

1171
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 1: and as Soon has beatn Sevia twice this year. They

1172
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:39,400
Speaker 1: beat them on the opening weekend of La Liga and

1173
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 1: they just beat them in the Copa del Rey quarterfinals.

1174
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 1: So I like them to give severe problems once again.

1175
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:46,799
Speaker 1: Plus half a goal at minus one ten?

1176
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:51,800
Speaker 2: All right, legal before we get to our underdogs, Anthony

1177
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 2: your boys.

1178
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:54,800
Speaker 4: Hell yeah, Marseille host PSG.

1179
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 1: It's can I say something for it? I hope it

1180
00:56:57,239 --> 00:56:59,760
Speaker 1: YGN win seven to nothing and lights up your Marseilla

1181
00:56:59,800 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 1: win this league ticket, but go out.

1182
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:03,480
Speaker 4: Have you checked the odds on that Marsa to win

1183
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:04,240
Speaker 4: this league ticket?

1184
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:06,280
Speaker 1: I haven't, but I hope it goes up in flames.

1185
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:08,920
Speaker 5: We are down to eight to one. We were sitting

1186
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 5: at twenty eight to one.

1187
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 4: A couple of weeks ago.

1188
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 5: PSG stole a win against Leel, stole it in stoppage time.

1189
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,080
Speaker 4: But the gap is just five points. So if the

1190
00:57:19,080 --> 00:57:25,200
Speaker 4: result goes our way on Sunday, Marseille is within striking distance.

1191
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:28,400
Speaker 5: And let me say they quietly made two editions at

1192
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 5: the at the transfer window that I really liked. You know,

1193
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 5: now he and Melanovski. Blanofski's been excellent. H Now he's

1194
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:36,440
Speaker 5: already has a goal, but he's really improved their midfield.

1195
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 5: Blanofski kind of like a super subby not always starting

1196
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 5: but always coming in kind of roll.

1197
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:44,760
Speaker 4: And the underline numbers continue to be solid for Marseille.

1198
00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 5: And I I really have doubts about PSG. The thing

1199
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 5: about Marseille, they do a pretty good job of pressing

1200
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 5: in France. They allow the second lowest pass completion rate PSG.

1201
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:58,240
Speaker 5: On the other hand, nineteenth pass completion rate allowed, So

1202
00:57:58,280 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 5: you can play right through this PSG team.

1203
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:01,920
Speaker 4: We've seen plenty of teams do it.

1204
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 5: They're not very good out of possession team, so PSG

1205
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:08,360
Speaker 5: used to having a lot of the possession, used to

1206
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 5: having kind of a stroll in the park because they

1207
00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:13,960
Speaker 5: have such a huge talent gap. I don't think there's

1208
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 5: a huge talent gap in the midfield and defense for

1209
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:16,520
Speaker 5: these two teams.

1210
00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:21,080
Speaker 4: Now, obviously Marseille does not have MESSI. Theymark and bope.

1211
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:24,760
Speaker 5: But we just saw this match played out in the

1212
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 5: Cup at Marseille and they really took it to PSG

1213
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 5: in the midfield and defensive areas, and I think they

1214
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:36,000
Speaker 5: can do it again. So I have this projected right

1215
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:38,560
Speaker 5: around the number. But it's a great, great love for

1216
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:41,800
Speaker 5: Marseille given PSG. Gaulty ears on his last legs there's

1217
00:58:41,840 --> 00:58:43,120
Speaker 5: a lot of turmoil at the club.

1218
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 2: This is when is there not a lot of turmoil?

1219
00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:49,960
Speaker 1: That is true. Yal's here said after the match that

1220
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:52,120
Speaker 1: he's got the complete backing of the management.

1221
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:54,080
Speaker 4: I don't believe that.

1222
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 1: I love that from him. He basically just told them

1223
00:58:56,240 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 1: he's like my job.

1224
00:58:57,240 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 5: He like bowed down in front of Messiah after he

1225
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 5: scored the winning goal. Like, thank you for saving my job.

1226
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:06,120
Speaker 5: You for saving my job, basically what he probably was saying.

1227
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, Marseille at home is an underdog

1228
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 5: against PSG. They're playing much better. PSG is in a

1229
00:59:12,760 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 5: disastrous form. It's a decent matchup because of the pressing stuff.

1230
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 5: They can disrupt the possession. Like I'm riding with Marseille and.

1231
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 4: If we win, we are so live for this league

1232
00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:25,400
Speaker 4: titled dj oh Man. I know that they've been very

1233
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:27,360
Speaker 4: fortunate in the past and they probably are due for regression,

1234
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:29,919
Speaker 4: but we only need to outrun that for a little

1235
00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 4: bit longer to catch this ticket.

1236
00:59:32,080 --> 00:59:35,960
Speaker 2: And it's a revenge spot for for Galt here too.

1237
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:39,600
Speaker 2: He is from Marseille and I think he played there,

1238
00:59:39,680 --> 00:59:44,640
Speaker 2: so look out. Yep, BJ's PSG could come through. I

1239
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:47,280
Speaker 2: think I got Marseille here at twenty two to one.

1240
00:59:48,960 --> 00:59:50,560
Speaker 1: But hope both of those.

1241
00:59:50,680 --> 00:59:51,880
Speaker 2: I'm kind of rooted for BJ here.

1242
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 3: This is I just feel bad for what you hit

1243
00:59:55,000 --> 00:59:55,440
Speaker 3: that ticket.

1244
00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 5: I mean, it wouldn't be the first time that a

1245
00:59:57,560 --> 00:59:59,560
Speaker 5: team got fortunate for a long period of time and

1246
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 5: over ran PSG when they were flawed in the league.

1247
01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 4: I mean Leal did it two years ago.

1248
01:00:04,240 --> 01:00:07,400
Speaker 1: Where Christophe gal.

1249
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:11,760
Speaker 5: Galt Yeah, and proach Gina was managing PSG time and

1250
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:13,200
Speaker 5: they went on a deep Champions League run.

1251
01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 4: So maybe we need one of those.

1252
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:16,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, and then we're gonna get one when PSG beats

1253
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:18,400
Speaker 5: Byron in the Champions League.

1254
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:19,600
Speaker 4: I'm so excited for this.

1255
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:20,439
Speaker 1: It's really great.

1256
01:00:20,520 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 4: I can't wait.

1257
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:25,520
Speaker 2: All right, PJ, real quick, you're for your betting and legal.

1258
01:00:25,520 --> 01:00:28,600
Speaker 1: I'll just do thirty seconds. Claremont Foot Strasbourg obviously, I mean,

1259
01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:30,720
Speaker 1: who's gonna who's who's gonna want to watch this match

1260
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:34,240
Speaker 1: over mar Say and PSG. But uh two really really

1261
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:36,720
Speaker 1: bad defense. I mean Claremont Foot's allowing one point six

1262
01:00:36,720 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 1: to one expected goals per ninety minutes. They've been overerforming

1263
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:43,240
Speaker 1: drastically defensively, especially from open play nineteen goals from open

1264
01:00:43,280 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 1: play loud off of twenty six point seven expected. Both

1265
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:50,560
Speaker 1: of these teams their matches average over two point seven

1266
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 1: to five expected goals per ninety and we're getting over

1267
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:55,960
Speaker 1: two and a half goals at plus one fifteen. So

1268
01:00:56,000 --> 01:00:58,440
Speaker 1: this is just a simple projection edge for me, and

1269
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:01,560
Speaker 1: the Strasbourg team continues to make zero sense, even though

1270
01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 1: it still has the exact same players from last season,

1271
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:07,160
Speaker 1: so over two and a half and plus one fifteen

1272
01:01:07,200 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 1: and Claremont foot in Strasbourg.

1273
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:15,160
Speaker 2: All right, and after the reason everybody comes to the show. Yep,

1274
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:19,400
Speaker 2: the under dog moneyline parlay, like I said last week,

1275
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 2: painfully close to a huge ticket. We've already hit a

1276
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:26,920
Speaker 2: two hundred to one to one, was close to adding

1277
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:28,880
Speaker 2: one hundred to eighty one hundred and eighty to one

1278
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 2: to the to the Ledger, they just freaking made a

1279
01:01:32,400 --> 01:01:35,760
Speaker 2: penalty story. Or if you just or if I just

1280
01:01:35,800 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 2: picked up to your guns and picked Mayorka on the island.

1281
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 2: You know why I didn't do it is because the

1282
01:01:40,200 --> 01:01:43,360
Speaker 2: week before I put them as my favorite pick in

1283
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,120
Speaker 2: Spain and they just got absolutely dismantled by Sevilla.

1284
01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:47,040
Speaker 1: So I was like, I don't know if I can

1285
01:01:47,120 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: do that to the listeners again. So but it's on

1286
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 1: the island listeners. These listeners have been through a lot

1287
01:01:52,040 --> 01:01:55,000
Speaker 1: with us, BJ. They would have understood and they would

1288
01:01:55,000 --> 01:01:55,640
Speaker 1: have been there with you.

1289
01:01:56,480 --> 01:01:58,200
Speaker 5: Somebody tried to us and was like, need to take

1290
01:01:58,240 --> 01:02:01,600
Speaker 5: the underdog parlay tickets separately, which we also do recommend,

1291
01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:03,720
Speaker 5: Like yeah, go a little bit, Like I've put five

1292
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 5: bucks on the parlor every week and then you know,

1293
01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:08,240
Speaker 5: kind of just throw more on the actual underdogs that

1294
01:02:08,360 --> 01:02:11,200
Speaker 5: I like because of you know, you're probably not gonna

1295
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 5: win all three, but if you hit one, it's a

1296
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:13,520
Speaker 5: hell of a weekend.

1297
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 4: So like Glad Black or borne.

1298
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:16,840
Speaker 2: With and this one will be a hell of a

1299
01:02:16,880 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 2: weekend too. It's a gonna end up being a pretty

1300
01:02:18,760 --> 01:02:21,880
Speaker 2: big ticket here. You two both have an underdog at

1301
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:23,760
Speaker 2: the same price at Beacha, you can go first.

1302
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just spoke about it Osasuna playing against Sevilla.

1303
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:29,080
Speaker 1: This is a really bad spot for Sevilla. This is

1304
01:02:29,120 --> 01:02:31,919
Speaker 1: gonna be their fifth match in fifteen days. I still

1305
01:02:31,960 --> 01:02:34,480
Speaker 1: don't believe that the Sevilla team has suddenly changed just

1306
01:02:34,520 --> 01:02:37,400
Speaker 1: because they pasted l J Cadiz and my Yorc at home.

1307
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:39,440
Speaker 1: I watched a lot of the second half against Via

1308
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:43,000
Speaker 1: Viacano just time and time again was threatening their penalty

1309
01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:46,040
Speaker 1: area and Sevilla was providing nothing in transition offense. So

1310
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:49,000
Speaker 1: for anol Soon team that's beat them twice, that is

1311
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:53,320
Speaker 1: very very good defensively, A really nice price at plus

1312
01:02:53,320 --> 01:02:55,600
Speaker 1: three forty, so oh Soon a plus three forty for me.

1313
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:58,560
Speaker 2: I'm taking Unyan Berlin. They're eight to one.

1314
01:02:59,000 --> 01:03:00,560
Speaker 1: I love it too against.

1315
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:05,040
Speaker 5: If you got Leipzig last week or two weeks ago,

1316
01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:06,560
Speaker 5: four to one against Lepsig easy.

1317
01:03:06,360 --> 01:03:09,440
Speaker 1: Money yep, with a penalty and a bunch of other

1318
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:11,680
Speaker 1: weird fluky stuff. But who cares, right, it's just it

1319
01:03:11,800 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 1: all matters.

1320
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:14,360
Speaker 2: They're eight to one and the the best defensive team

1321
01:03:14,400 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 2: by expecting big scoring chances of.

1322
01:03:16,440 --> 01:03:19,760
Speaker 1: This league, and they're in second place, and they held

1323
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:21,560
Speaker 1: Byron to one and a half expected goals in the

1324
01:03:21,560 --> 01:03:24,720
Speaker 1: previous meeting, right like, that's and I wouldn't looked, Michael.

1325
01:03:25,120 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 1: That's Byron's third worst offensive performance in the Bundesliga this season.

1326
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:32,640
Speaker 2: And I think that this this is a an angle

1327
01:03:32,720 --> 01:03:37,360
Speaker 2: I I talk about in in hockey or in other

1328
01:03:37,400 --> 01:03:40,640
Speaker 2: sports too, like when when a team loses a game

1329
01:03:40,720 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 2: like Byron did uh Over last weekend against cloud Bach,

1330
01:03:45,800 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 2: the natural reaction is, I can't lose two in a row,

1331
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:51,640
Speaker 2: so the price gets inflated. And this team can lose

1332
01:03:51,640 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 2: two in a row, and they can do it because

1333
01:03:53,040 --> 01:03:57,120
Speaker 2: they they've played a team, two solid teams, and they're

1334
01:03:57,120 --> 01:03:59,520
Speaker 2: playing another one. They're playing a team that's in second place,

1335
01:04:00,320 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 2: that has incredible defensive numbers, and yet they're eight to one.

1336
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 2: I know the spot's not great, but I'll take Unjamberlin

1337
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 2: in a huge match in the Bundesliga. Man imagine they

1338
01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:13,160
Speaker 2: are able to pull this one off. It just would

1339
01:04:13,200 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 2: be hilarious to watch that league really devolve into chaos

1340
01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:21,720
Speaker 2: for the first time. It's quite a while, Anthony, what

1341
01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:22,840
Speaker 2: are you sprinkling in here?

1342
01:04:23,320 --> 01:04:26,400
Speaker 5: Dorino plus three forty in the turn Darby, it's un

1343
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:28,160
Speaker 5: till Tuesday, so if we do hit the first two legs,

1344
01:04:28,160 --> 01:04:32,080
Speaker 5: it's gonna be excruciating forty eight hours. But we're not

1345
01:04:32,080 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 5: gonna do a pod Sunday. So I'm using to Reno here.

1346
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:38,880
Speaker 5: I mean like, I'm just higher than the market on

1347
01:04:39,040 --> 01:04:41,960
Speaker 5: Derno and lower than the market on Juventus. Tono does

1348
01:04:41,960 --> 01:04:46,480
Speaker 5: a really excellent job pressing Juventus doesn't press. I think

1349
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:49,600
Speaker 5: from a stylistic matchup, they can disrupt Uve's possession. Uve

1350
01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:51,960
Speaker 5: will not be able to disrupt Torino's the same extent.

1351
01:04:53,040 --> 01:04:55,080
Speaker 5: And so I like to Reno in the matchup, in

1352
01:04:55,120 --> 01:04:59,400
Speaker 5: the spot and give me your rich to get the

1353
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:02,040
Speaker 5: better of a leg. I'll take him over like any

1354
01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:02,520
Speaker 5: day of the week.

1355
01:05:03,800 --> 01:05:08,360
Speaker 2: So that's oh so souna Unjan Berlin to Reno one

1356
01:05:08,440 --> 01:05:11,320
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy three to one. It's your final tab

1357
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:15,280
Speaker 2: for that parlaye feels pretty good, honestly.

1358
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:19,360
Speaker 1: And we just had shalka against Union and Blain last

1359
01:05:19,360 --> 01:05:21,960
Speaker 1: week and our round robin, which just seems funny.

1360
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:26,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, the round robin.

1361
01:05:26,120 --> 01:05:28,240
Speaker 1: The round robin started so hot with the first it

1362
01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:30,680
Speaker 1: was a five bigger. The first two hit at six

1363
01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:32,320
Speaker 1: to one and seven to one and the next three

1364
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:35,600
Speaker 1: don't all right on to our favorite bets in the

1365
01:05:35,600 --> 01:05:38,800
Speaker 1: Premier League. Now, Anthony, we can kick it off with you.

1366
01:05:39,480 --> 01:05:39,720
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1367
01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:43,040
Speaker 5: This is a classic battle of process versus results. Chelsea

1368
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:46,720
Speaker 5: goes to Spurs on Saturday and I am betting the

1369
01:05:46,760 --> 01:05:50,120
Speaker 5: Blues to finally see the ball go into the back

1370
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:50,560
Speaker 5: of the net.

1371
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:52,160
Speaker 4: And we're all going to do that.

1372
01:05:52,280 --> 01:05:55,640
Speaker 5: Chelsea finally figured it out. Narratives come Sunday morning.

1373
01:05:55,640 --> 01:05:57,840
Speaker 4: But I like Chelsea. John no Bett at plus one

1374
01:05:57,920 --> 01:06:01,360
Speaker 4: ten Todtenham has one three of four. But the underlying

1375
01:06:01,400 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 4: performances are pretty up and down.

1376
01:06:04,240 --> 01:06:05,720
Speaker 5: You know, they were okay at Fulham, they were good

1377
01:06:05,760 --> 01:06:07,640
Speaker 5: against City defending their own penaltaria, but this is a

1378
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:11,200
Speaker 5: different kind of situation. Chelsea has now scored just one

1379
01:06:11,240 --> 01:06:13,720
Speaker 5: goal in its last five matches, but they produced over

1380
01:06:13,840 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 5: nine expected goals. So this is a Chelsea attack that

1381
01:06:16,760 --> 01:06:19,640
Speaker 5: eventually we will start to see them click. The underlying numbers,

1382
01:06:19,680 --> 01:06:22,440
Speaker 5: the field tilt, the process, stuff that's under the hood

1383
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:25,400
Speaker 5: is improving considerably to the point where I think they're

1384
01:06:25,400 --> 01:06:28,040
Speaker 5: the better team than Tottenham, given the Tottenhams continue to

1385
01:06:28,080 --> 01:06:31,440
Speaker 5: go in the other direction. Despite the winning, some injury

1386
01:06:31,480 --> 01:06:34,360
Speaker 5: and defensive and goalie concerns for Spurs continue to persist.

1387
01:06:34,840 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 5: I'm just not a believer in this Tottenham team. Maybe

1388
01:06:36,840 --> 01:06:39,760
Speaker 5: they'll prove me wrong once again, but I like Chelsea.

1389
01:06:39,840 --> 01:06:43,280
Speaker 2: John Obett, I'm taking Everted there at plus one fifty

1390
01:06:43,720 --> 01:06:47,120
Speaker 2: at home hosting who Ni Amory and aston Villa, who've

1391
01:06:47,160 --> 01:06:50,000
Speaker 2: lost three in a row, kind have conceded nine expected

1392
01:06:50,040 --> 01:06:55,040
Speaker 2: goals in that span. Ever did have held Arsenal and

1393
01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:57,920
Speaker 2: Leads in their two home matches under Sean Ditsch to

1394
01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:04,240
Speaker 2: under one and a half expected goals total. And if

1395
01:07:04,280 --> 01:07:07,280
Speaker 2: you're playing a team like aston Villa who's leaky defensively,

1396
01:07:08,240 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 2: you probably aren't gonna need to play a perfect defensive

1397
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:14,880
Speaker 2: game to win. The margin for error with Everton has

1398
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 2: grown under Sean Ditsch, which is really important. I think

1399
01:07:17,760 --> 01:07:20,960
Speaker 2: that this team is going to only trend up as

1400
01:07:20,960 --> 01:07:24,760
Speaker 2: the season goes on, like the matchup, like the fact

1401
01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:27,120
Speaker 2: that they'll be home, like the fact that Theylla really

1402
01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:29,200
Speaker 2: doesn't have much to play for, while Everdon has everything

1403
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:31,440
Speaker 2: to play for. A lot of science pointing to Everton

1404
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:37,400
Speaker 2: here plus one fifty on the topees BJ take us home.

1405
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:40,520
Speaker 1: Arsenal minus one thirty five on the road at the

1406
01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:43,920
Speaker 1: King Power Stadium against Lester. This is pretty much the

1407
01:07:43,960 --> 01:07:46,600
Speaker 1: exact same price that Arsenal was against Aston Villa, and

1408
01:07:46,680 --> 01:07:48,880
Speaker 1: I believe that Auston Villa is a better team than

1409
01:07:48,960 --> 01:07:52,200
Speaker 1: Lester at this point. Lester coming off that horrible performance

1410
01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 1: at Manchester United where they conceded four point one expected goals,

1411
01:07:55,160 --> 01:07:58,120
Speaker 1: four big scoring chances and United had nineteen of their

1412
01:07:58,120 --> 01:08:00,920
Speaker 1: twenty five shots inside the penalty area, and it just

1413
01:08:00,960 --> 01:08:02,959
Speaker 1: goes to show what Lester kind of is this season.

1414
01:08:03,000 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 1: They're a very good team at possessing the ball. They

1415
01:08:04,880 --> 01:08:06,920
Speaker 1: can progress the ball to pitch with guys like Tielman's

1416
01:08:07,240 --> 01:08:10,160
Speaker 1: and James Madison, But when they're asked to sit back

1417
01:08:10,160 --> 01:08:12,800
Speaker 1: in a four to four to two defensively and defend

1418
01:08:12,880 --> 01:08:15,360
Speaker 1: one of the better teams in the Premier League, they

1419
01:08:15,400 --> 01:08:16,920
Speaker 1: tend to struggle and I think that's what we're going

1420
01:08:17,000 --> 01:08:19,800
Speaker 1: to see again here on Saturday. Arsenal is gonna get

1421
01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:22,320
Speaker 1: Thomas Party back, which is huge for them defending in transition,

1422
01:08:22,439 --> 01:08:24,719
Speaker 1: which Lester has been pretty dangerous to the guys like Harvey,

1423
01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:28,599
Speaker 1: Barnes and Madison as well. But the lesser offense just

1424
01:08:28,640 --> 01:08:31,599
Speaker 1: cannot turn final third possession into any type of scoring chance.

1425
01:08:31,640 --> 01:08:34,840
Speaker 1: You know, they're top eight in expected threat and final

1426
01:08:34,880 --> 01:08:38,040
Speaker 1: third entries, but their seventeenth and final third depenalty box

1427
01:08:38,120 --> 01:08:40,840
Speaker 1: conversion rate, which is why you see them leading the

1428
01:08:40,880 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 1: Premier League with ten goals from outside the box. So

1429
01:08:43,760 --> 01:08:45,320
Speaker 1: they just don't have a clinical finish that can get

1430
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:46,920
Speaker 1: on the end of those chances. So I find it

1431
01:08:46,960 --> 01:08:48,920
Speaker 1: hard to believe they're going to threaten Arsenal's penalty area.

1432
01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:50,960
Speaker 1: And given what we've seen from how bad they've been

1433
01:08:50,960 --> 01:08:54,280
Speaker 1: defensively trying to defend big six six sides like they

1434
01:08:54,280 --> 01:08:56,720
Speaker 1: did against Arsenal last time when Arsenals scored four goals

1435
01:08:56,720 --> 01:08:58,920
Speaker 1: and put up two point five expected I think we're

1436
01:08:58,920 --> 01:09:00,519
Speaker 1: going to see a very similar or I like that

1437
01:09:00,920 --> 01:09:03,040
Speaker 1: on Saturday at the king Power Stadium. So I like

1438
01:09:03,160 --> 01:09:04,400
Speaker 1: Arsenal minus one thirty five.

1439
01:09:05,000 --> 01:09:07,320
Speaker 2: BJ's going with his team. I'm going with my team.

1440
01:09:07,320 --> 01:09:12,160
Speaker 2: Anthony's going against his. That's beautiful. With all that nonsense

1441
01:09:12,160 --> 01:09:14,479
Speaker 2: out of the way, we will now turn it over

1442
01:09:14,560 --> 01:09:19,480
Speaker 2: to Anthony and BJ and our esteemed friend and colleague

1443
01:09:19,800 --> 01:09:22,680
Speaker 2: Eric wnalda former men's national team player here in the

1444
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:27,080
Speaker 2: United States, as the three of them discuss the upcoming

1445
01:09:27,160 --> 01:09:30,120
Speaker 2: MLS season, the Apple TV deal, and much more.

1446
01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:32,679
Speaker 1: All Right, Mike had to step out for a second,

1447
01:09:32,680 --> 01:09:34,599
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna hop in the host chair here. We

1448
01:09:34,640 --> 01:09:38,559
Speaker 1: bring on our good friend Eric nalda US men's soccer legend,

1449
01:09:39,240 --> 01:09:41,680
Speaker 1: talk a little champions league that just happened in some

1450
01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:43,599
Speaker 1: other stuff around them. First off, Eric, how you doing.

1451
01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:47,240
Speaker 3: I'm doing good. It's been a it's been a good week.

1452
01:09:47,280 --> 01:09:49,400
Speaker 3: You've had some good results. I see you got the

1453
01:09:49,439 --> 01:09:53,000
Speaker 3: glad back glad block Jersey on which is pretty terrific.

1454
01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:56,559
Speaker 3: Great call there. Yeah, No, it's been a it's it's

1455
01:09:56,600 --> 01:09:59,320
Speaker 3: a good week. It's gonna be it's gonna it's it's

1456
01:09:59,400 --> 01:10:01,200
Speaker 3: a little bit crazy because this is this is a

1457
01:10:01,240 --> 01:10:04,840
Speaker 3: crazy season. MLS starts, uh and now it's it's now

1458
01:10:04,840 --> 01:10:07,599
Speaker 3: it's a full Saturday and a full Sunday, so kind

1459
01:10:07,600 --> 01:10:09,960
Speaker 3: of crazy but all good, All.

1460
01:10:09,880 --> 01:10:14,519
Speaker 1: Right, Well, we just watched a very dramatic and interesting

1461
01:10:14,600 --> 01:10:17,439
Speaker 1: champions Like at least one of the ties was what

1462
01:10:17,520 --> 01:10:19,639
Speaker 1: are your thoughts what we saw from this past week?

1463
01:10:19,760 --> 01:10:23,760
Speaker 1: And most more specifically, how about that real Madrid just

1464
01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:26,440
Speaker 1: blitz on Liverpool on Tuesday?

1465
01:10:27,360 --> 01:10:31,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's it's really strange, man, what's going on

1466
01:10:31,880 --> 01:10:35,840
Speaker 3: with with this Liverpool team? You know, you almost thought

1467
01:10:35,880 --> 01:10:39,000
Speaker 3: for a second there that this might have been the

1468
01:10:39,040 --> 01:10:41,400
Speaker 3: turning point. You know, it goes to no bad mistake

1469
01:10:41,439 --> 01:10:45,559
Speaker 3: from Kurtois and then it's just two one two two,

1470
01:10:45,640 --> 01:10:47,800
Speaker 3: two three, two four two five could have been too

1471
01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:52,600
Speaker 3: six madness? I think, what what we're realizing? And unfortunately

1472
01:10:52,800 --> 01:10:55,639
Speaker 3: we've talked about this previously on the on the podcast

1473
01:10:55,640 --> 01:10:59,200
Speaker 3: about just Clump in general. Every seven years it just

1474
01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:01,200
Speaker 3: seems to go wrong for him. And we're in that

1475
01:11:01,240 --> 01:11:04,000
Speaker 3: seventh year, seven years in mind, seven years in normound,

1476
01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:07,040
Speaker 3: seven years in Liverpool. It might be time to uh

1477
01:11:07,240 --> 01:11:10,160
Speaker 3: to look the other way. But come on, man, does

1478
01:11:10,200 --> 01:11:14,719
Speaker 3: that midfield? There's so many things to fix. It's almost

1479
01:11:14,760 --> 01:11:16,840
Speaker 3: like I feel like Liverpool and Chelsea just need to

1480
01:11:16,880 --> 01:11:19,000
Speaker 3: get to the inline, get to the end of the

1481
01:11:19,080 --> 01:11:22,720
Speaker 3: year and recalculate, because it's just it's just been one

1482
01:11:22,800 --> 01:11:26,639
Speaker 3: mess after another. But amazing. All that being said, let's

1483
01:11:26,680 --> 01:11:29,760
Speaker 3: let's let's face it, real Madrid's real Madrid and and

1484
01:11:30,040 --> 01:11:34,160
Speaker 3: Benzema is still it's incredible. I saw his stat that

1485
01:11:34,200 --> 01:11:37,720
Speaker 3: he scored more goals against the English top six than

1486
01:11:37,760 --> 01:11:42,559
Speaker 3: Suarez without ever playing in the EBL, So I mean,

1487
01:11:43,120 --> 01:11:46,120
Speaker 3: let's let's let's sip our hat to Ancelotti and his gang.

1488
01:11:46,160 --> 01:11:49,360
Speaker 3: But still it's it's bad times in Chelsea and it's

1489
01:11:49,680 --> 01:11:51,080
Speaker 3: worse times in Liverpool.

1490
01:11:51,800 --> 01:11:52,720
Speaker 4: I think, you know.

1491
01:11:52,920 --> 01:11:54,559
Speaker 5: One of the interesting things and I see I see

1492
01:11:54,560 --> 01:11:56,160
Speaker 5: that you've tweeted about it a little bit, is that

1493
01:11:56,360 --> 01:12:00,920
Speaker 5: MLS has made this move now to Apple TV. I'm

1494
01:12:00,920 --> 01:12:03,320
Speaker 5: a Tea mobile user, so I'm very excited I'm getting

1495
01:12:03,360 --> 01:12:05,919
Speaker 5: it for free. Otherwise I don't think I'd be investing

1496
01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:08,720
Speaker 5: my money in the MLS. I watch it, I watch

1497
01:12:08,760 --> 01:12:10,240
Speaker 5: the Union here and there, but I'm not, you know,

1498
01:12:10,600 --> 01:12:13,040
Speaker 5: following the league week to week like like some diehards.

1499
01:12:13,320 --> 01:12:16,439
Speaker 5: What do you make of One, just MLS this kind

1500
01:12:16,439 --> 01:12:20,320
Speaker 5: of trajectory here and expanding markets, But two, how do

1501
01:12:20,360 --> 01:12:23,519
Speaker 5: you think this Apple TV situation will play this season

1502
01:12:23,720 --> 01:12:25,559
Speaker 5: and going forward in terms of trying to grow it.

1503
01:12:26,160 --> 01:12:26,960
Speaker 4: You know what's the future.

1504
01:12:27,760 --> 01:12:31,519
Speaker 3: Well, here's what nobody will say. Apple is closely monitoring

1505
01:12:31,520 --> 01:12:33,880
Speaker 3: what's going on, the going on with the NFL and

1506
01:12:33,920 --> 01:12:37,000
Speaker 3: the Amazon deal and watching the Thursday night numbers go down.

1507
01:12:37,880 --> 01:12:40,599
Speaker 3: This is a this is a Petri dish for the NBA.

1508
01:12:41,360 --> 01:12:43,920
Speaker 3: Let's let's just be honest. That's what they're up to.

1509
01:12:45,120 --> 01:12:47,560
Speaker 3: It's not really an expansion. Really, what it is is

1510
01:12:47,600 --> 01:12:48,439
Speaker 3: to figure out what this is.

1511
01:12:48,360 --> 01:12:49,000
Speaker 1: Going to look like.

1512
01:12:49,240 --> 01:12:51,080
Speaker 3: Incidentally enough, I don't know if you're paying attention to

1513
01:12:51,160 --> 01:12:54,120
Speaker 3: the US soccer deal with HBO Max. They haven't even

1514
01:12:54,160 --> 01:12:57,080
Speaker 3: released their numbers yet because they don't want to. They

1515
01:12:57,080 --> 01:12:59,720
Speaker 3: don't want us to know how bad they are. That

1516
01:12:59,760 --> 01:13:01,800
Speaker 3: will be the case in the first couple of weeks

1517
01:13:01,800 --> 01:13:05,560
Speaker 3: with the Apple deal, and the reason for that originally

1518
01:13:05,720 --> 01:13:07,639
Speaker 3: was that you couldn't even go watch it in a bar.

1519
01:13:08,720 --> 01:13:11,040
Speaker 3: They've they've remedied that. I don't know if you saw that.

1520
01:13:11,040 --> 01:13:13,880
Speaker 3: They've they've gone backwards now and they've done some some

1521
01:13:13,880 --> 01:13:15,800
Speaker 3: some deals with Direct TV to kind of fix that.

1522
01:13:15,880 --> 01:13:18,599
Speaker 3: So you can now figure out a way to watch

1523
01:13:18,800 --> 01:13:22,160
Speaker 3: MLS games in a bar. But to your point, most

1524
01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:26,280
Speaker 3: people who watch MLS who have a team would much

1525
01:13:27,040 --> 01:13:29,439
Speaker 3: rather just have the ability to watch their own team.

1526
01:13:30,160 --> 01:13:33,479
Speaker 3: Philadelphia doesn't give a crap how Chicago does. You don't,

1527
01:13:33,760 --> 01:13:36,400
Speaker 3: You're not going to watch that. So those numbers are

1528
01:13:36,439 --> 01:13:38,200
Speaker 3: going to be going to be skewed now. They were

1529
01:13:38,200 --> 01:13:40,280
Speaker 3: getting somewhere between one hundred and forty seven one hundred

1530
01:13:40,320 --> 01:13:45,080
Speaker 3: and sixty thousand per game on the networks. Just get

1531
01:13:45,120 --> 01:13:49,240
Speaker 3: ready for the no release of numbers because they're going

1532
01:13:49,320 --> 01:13:52,839
Speaker 3: to count numbers of people that are season ticket holders

1533
01:13:52,880 --> 01:13:55,120
Speaker 3: as if they were watching. That doesn't mean they were watching.

1534
01:13:55,640 --> 01:13:59,200
Speaker 3: So it's going to be a tricky, tricky start. It's

1535
01:13:59,240 --> 01:14:02,160
Speaker 3: it's viewed as a way for us to be expansive

1536
01:14:02,240 --> 01:14:05,600
Speaker 3: and to see all the games, but the people that

1537
01:14:06,040 --> 01:14:09,839
Speaker 3: were not watching it when it was free are expected

1538
01:14:09,880 --> 01:14:13,639
Speaker 3: to pay for it now and that's not really going

1539
01:14:13,680 --> 01:14:15,680
Speaker 3: to be a good look in the start of this thing.

1540
01:14:15,840 --> 01:14:20,519
Speaker 3: But again I commend Apple and MLS for getting it done.

1541
01:14:20,960 --> 01:14:23,479
Speaker 3: Bigger problem, guys than the last point I'd make is

1542
01:14:23,520 --> 01:14:26,120
Speaker 3: they're way behind. It was bee as the two hundred

1543
01:14:26,120 --> 01:14:30,240
Speaker 3: and fifty million dollar deal. I think eighty million of

1544
01:14:30,240 --> 01:14:34,280
Speaker 3: that was to build that centralized production studio. They're way

1545
01:14:34,280 --> 01:14:36,320
Speaker 3: behind on that, so they're going to have to already

1546
01:14:36,320 --> 01:14:39,280
Speaker 3: dip into the owner's pockets to make sure that they

1547
01:14:39,320 --> 01:14:42,360
Speaker 3: can do these remotely. That's where it's going to get tricky, guys.

1548
01:14:42,400 --> 01:14:45,680
Speaker 3: That's a big expense. They're going to be probably somewhere

1549
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:49,080
Speaker 3: in the fifty to sixty million over budget year one,

1550
01:14:49,439 --> 01:14:54,720
Speaker 3: So stay tuned. I'm sure they're aware of that problem.

1551
01:14:54,920 --> 01:14:57,040
Speaker 3: The numbers will be skewed, but the good the good

1552
01:14:57,080 --> 01:14:58,920
Speaker 3: news is that you do have access if you want it.

1553
01:14:59,600 --> 01:15:03,000
Speaker 1: How do you that effects them trying to bring older

1554
01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:06,240
Speaker 1: players over from europe top five leagues? So like, for example,

1555
01:15:06,560 --> 01:15:09,280
Speaker 1: there's been rumors of the Messi going to inter Miami

1556
01:15:09,320 --> 01:15:12,200
Speaker 1: along with Sergio Busquetz as well. Do you think that

1557
01:15:12,840 --> 01:15:14,800
Speaker 1: is kind of built in, maybe not built into the

1558
01:15:14,800 --> 01:15:16,719
Speaker 1: Apple deal, but kind of like a little hat tip,

1559
01:15:16,800 --> 01:15:19,400
Speaker 1: maybe saying like, hey, let's overpay to get some of

1560
01:15:19,400 --> 01:15:21,840
Speaker 1: these stars in maybe help our cause here.

1561
01:15:22,560 --> 01:15:24,559
Speaker 3: I'm glad you brought it up, because that's exactly what's

1562
01:15:24,600 --> 01:15:27,280
Speaker 3: going on. They're building their business plan around that. So

1563
01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:29,640
Speaker 3: they're hoping that the Colombians will want to see a

1564
01:15:29,640 --> 01:15:32,120
Speaker 3: Colombian player they're hoping that the Argentis will want to

1565
01:15:32,160 --> 01:15:36,120
Speaker 3: get their superstars. That is exactly what they're up to.

1566
01:15:36,240 --> 01:15:38,920
Speaker 3: It's yet to be seen what kind of effect a

1567
01:15:39,040 --> 01:15:41,760
Speaker 3: superstar like Messi will have on this. We all saw

1568
01:15:42,520 --> 01:15:45,920
Speaker 3: the impact that David Beckham had with LA. It became

1569
01:15:46,280 --> 01:15:49,360
Speaker 3: a Kumbaya thing for all of the owners. You get

1570
01:15:49,360 --> 01:15:52,160
Speaker 3: to realize in this single entity business of Major League

1571
01:15:52,160 --> 01:15:55,360
Speaker 3: Soccer when Beckham came over, it's not like the LA

1572
01:15:55,400 --> 01:15:58,559
Speaker 3: Galaxy paint all that it was. You have a contract

1573
01:15:58,560 --> 01:16:02,400
Speaker 3: with the league and then they send you to the team,

1574
01:16:02,520 --> 01:16:06,759
Speaker 3: so the league pays for your salary. What that means

1575
01:16:06,800 --> 01:16:08,479
Speaker 3: is when there's a big time player that comes in

1576
01:16:08,520 --> 01:16:13,240
Speaker 3: like Beckham, he's going to be paid for in this collection.

1577
01:16:13,439 --> 01:16:15,200
Speaker 3: You know, it's a capital call. Let's let's face it,

1578
01:16:15,240 --> 01:16:17,479
Speaker 3: that's exactly what's going on. It's the same when a

1579
01:16:17,479 --> 01:16:20,719
Speaker 3: player goes out. You're under the assumption that if somebody

1580
01:16:20,760 --> 01:16:24,680
Speaker 3: goes and we just saw a player, for example, we

1581
01:16:24,720 --> 01:16:29,360
Speaker 3: were just going through the list of Montreal who sent

1582
01:16:29,880 --> 01:16:31,880
Speaker 3: a couple of players on their way one to watch

1583
01:16:31,880 --> 01:16:35,200
Speaker 3: Faily for eight point five and Mihalovich was around six.

1584
01:16:35,439 --> 01:16:38,639
Speaker 3: So that's fourteen million in right, it didn't all go

1585
01:16:38,800 --> 01:16:41,519
Speaker 3: to Montreal, so it all goes back to the single

1586
01:16:41,680 --> 01:16:44,200
Speaker 3: entity before they figure that out. But you're exactly right.

1587
01:16:44,439 --> 01:16:48,519
Speaker 3: The whole point is to get this global and it's

1588
01:16:48,240 --> 01:16:52,000
Speaker 3: again it's a test market for the NBA. And let's

1589
01:16:52,000 --> 01:16:53,599
Speaker 3: face it, let's look at some of the players around

1590
01:16:53,600 --> 01:16:56,519
Speaker 3: the NBA. They're not all American. There's a lot of

1591
01:16:56,520 --> 01:16:59,639
Speaker 3: guys that they can start figuring out if this model

1592
01:16:59,680 --> 01:17:01,879
Speaker 3: will work in different sports, more.

1593
01:17:01,680 --> 01:17:04,479
Speaker 5: Than ever in the NBA for sure. MLS also announced

1594
01:17:04,439 --> 01:17:07,120
Speaker 5: they're expanding the playoffs. They're doing this best of three

1595
01:17:07,880 --> 01:17:11,360
Speaker 5: nine teams per conference. Like, I know, it's an American thing,

1596
01:17:11,400 --> 01:17:13,480
Speaker 5: like we need the playoffs and we want the playoffs.

1597
01:17:14,360 --> 01:17:17,080
Speaker 5: Is that something you're you know, you've played kind of

1598
01:17:17,120 --> 01:17:19,559
Speaker 5: you've seen both sides of that whole thing. Like where

1599
01:17:19,560 --> 01:17:21,559
Speaker 5: do you come down on kind of what the ideal

1600
01:17:21,600 --> 01:17:25,759
Speaker 5: playoff format is for MLS given that the season already

1601
01:17:25,800 --> 01:17:27,680
Speaker 5: is really long and now you're having you know, I

1602
01:17:27,680 --> 01:17:29,439
Speaker 5: think it's sixty two percent of the league is going

1603
01:17:29,439 --> 01:17:30,200
Speaker 5: to make the playoffs.

1604
01:17:30,920 --> 01:17:33,679
Speaker 3: It's amazing, right, Well, they've got a number right now,

1605
01:17:34,080 --> 01:17:35,880
Speaker 3: so that's why that nine number comes and they have

1606
01:17:35,920 --> 01:17:38,760
Speaker 3: to have a play in game, but I'm completely against it.

1607
01:17:39,000 --> 01:17:42,320
Speaker 3: I'm completely against the idea that we have to have

1608
01:17:42,360 --> 01:17:45,479
Speaker 3: this many teams getting in. It should be special. But again,

1609
01:17:45,800 --> 01:17:48,480
Speaker 3: a coupled with the Apple deal, this is about inventory.

1610
01:17:48,960 --> 01:17:52,000
Speaker 3: You know, one deal came before the other. They need

1611
01:17:52,040 --> 01:17:55,160
Speaker 3: to make sure that they have enough inventory to put

1612
01:17:55,160 --> 01:17:57,599
Speaker 3: on their platform. And you know, of course there's that

1613
01:17:57,640 --> 01:18:00,680
Speaker 3: reward system if you win, if you come in a

1614
01:18:00,760 --> 01:18:02,880
Speaker 3: higher place in the league, you're going to get that

1615
01:18:02,920 --> 01:18:05,360
Speaker 3: home game, and do you get that payout? But the

1616
01:18:05,400 --> 01:18:08,720
Speaker 3: reality is just way too many games, way too much. Uh,

1617
01:18:08,840 --> 01:18:12,240
Speaker 3: it's it is a concern for the player's health. But again,

1618
01:18:12,280 --> 01:18:14,240
Speaker 3: this is about the money, nothing else.

1619
01:18:15,000 --> 01:18:17,320
Speaker 1: Okay, I have a a very interesting question that came

1620
01:18:17,360 --> 01:18:19,960
Speaker 1: in my brain this morning that I think is I

1621
01:18:19,960 --> 01:18:21,920
Speaker 1: think it's kind of interesting for our listeners to to

1622
01:18:22,000 --> 01:18:24,040
Speaker 1: think about and ponder as well. Since you are a

1623
01:18:24,040 --> 01:18:28,080
Speaker 1: former manager, obviously, if you could pick any team in

1624
01:18:28,120 --> 01:18:30,280
Speaker 1: the world to manage right now, but I'm going to

1625
01:18:30,320 --> 01:18:33,160
Speaker 1: remove some easy ones. So no Big Six plus Newcast

1626
01:18:33,200 --> 01:18:37,560
Speaker 1: and the APL, No Buyern, no Dort, no Leipzig, no Barcelona,

1627
01:18:37,680 --> 01:18:42,080
Speaker 1: no Athletico, no Real Madrid, no inter Ac Milan, Napoli, Juventus,

1628
01:18:42,400 --> 01:18:44,960
Speaker 1: and no PSGs. I'm essentially taking away all of the

1629
01:18:45,080 --> 01:18:48,479
Speaker 1: big rich. It's easy for you, right, so not easy?

1630
01:18:48,920 --> 01:18:49,799
Speaker 3: Who wants that headache?

1631
01:18:49,880 --> 01:18:50,040
Speaker 1: Right?

1632
01:18:50,040 --> 01:18:53,559
Speaker 3: That's that's funny play and I that's out of my

1633
01:18:53,600 --> 01:18:56,679
Speaker 3: pay grade. But not if you're sitting which team you're saying,

1634
01:18:56,680 --> 01:18:57,320
Speaker 3: which team would have?

1635
01:18:57,439 --> 01:18:59,200
Speaker 1: Which team would you want to manage? You know, given

1636
01:18:59,200 --> 01:19:02,559
Speaker 1: obviously the ownership structure, current players, scouting networks, every you know,

1637
01:19:02,680 --> 01:19:04,760
Speaker 1: everything involved with it, because I think it is kind

1638
01:19:04,800 --> 01:19:07,280
Speaker 1: of an interesting like which mid table club would you

1639
01:19:07,320 --> 01:19:09,200
Speaker 1: want to manage to that you think you could bring?

1640
01:19:09,520 --> 01:19:12,599
Speaker 3: Essentially, I would go so much lower, guys, so much lower.

1641
01:19:12,640 --> 01:19:15,840
Speaker 3: I would go to a place called Alamania Achen. Alamenia

1642
01:19:15,840 --> 01:19:19,080
Speaker 3: Achen used to be a first division team many years ago.

1643
01:19:19,200 --> 01:19:23,040
Speaker 3: They hit some financial troubles and they ended up in

1644
01:19:23,040 --> 01:19:27,160
Speaker 3: the second. They went through more problems. They built a

1645
01:19:27,240 --> 01:19:33,280
Speaker 3: beautiful stadium called Tivoli thirty two thousand seedar world class.

1646
01:19:33,320 --> 01:19:37,120
Speaker 3: I mean it would be suitable for the Bundesliga tomorrow.

1647
01:19:37,320 --> 01:19:40,120
Speaker 3: There's nothing that you have to invest into that they're

1648
01:19:40,120 --> 01:19:43,280
Speaker 3: in the fourth division. But the reason why I would

1649
01:19:43,280 --> 01:19:47,639
Speaker 3: pick Achen is is because there's unbelievable business opportunity there

1650
01:19:48,120 --> 01:19:52,719
Speaker 3: where you could bring American players, you could bring players

1651
01:19:52,840 --> 01:19:55,719
Speaker 3: from Major League Soccer to play in the fourth Division

1652
01:19:55,760 --> 01:20:00,479
Speaker 3: as as a test, but also a place to showcase

1653
01:20:00,520 --> 01:20:03,920
Speaker 3: them and sell them. We're seeing players like Mihalevich go

1654
01:20:04,040 --> 01:20:08,400
Speaker 3: for six million to outmark. The reality was there's players

1655
01:20:08,479 --> 01:20:11,120
Speaker 3: just like that would help this team go from four

1656
01:20:11,160 --> 01:20:14,280
Speaker 3: to three to two in a hurry. So I would

1657
01:20:14,280 --> 01:20:19,360
Speaker 3: love that challenge. I love the promotion opportunity. The other

1658
01:20:19,400 --> 01:20:21,920
Speaker 3: good news is that on the development side, if you

1659
01:20:21,960 --> 01:20:24,519
Speaker 3: will in their region, if you look up on a

1660
01:20:24,600 --> 01:20:28,480
Speaker 3: map where Afen is, it's about I think twelve kilometers

1661
01:20:28,479 --> 01:20:34,439
Speaker 3: from Holland and fifteen kilometers from Belgium, and it's right,

1662
01:20:34,800 --> 01:20:36,720
Speaker 3: it's right on those borders, and if you drive an

1663
01:20:36,720 --> 01:20:40,599
Speaker 3: hour south you end up in France or Luxembourg. So

1664
01:20:40,720 --> 01:20:43,000
Speaker 3: it's in that sense it's called the ruger Bet, which

1665
01:20:43,040 --> 01:20:46,200
Speaker 3: is right, you know, this is about an hour away

1666
01:20:46,240 --> 01:20:49,200
Speaker 3: from that shirt you're wearing right now, and it's it's

1667
01:20:49,240 --> 01:20:53,120
Speaker 3: you're going to play against Globo's second team, Shalkas second team,

1668
01:20:53,200 --> 01:20:57,720
Speaker 3: Duzeldorf's second team, Cologne's second team, and the realities of

1669
01:20:58,200 --> 01:21:02,400
Speaker 3: those games in itself is high quality games. So it's

1670
01:21:02,439 --> 01:21:04,960
Speaker 3: it's not like it feels like the fourth division. You

1671
01:21:05,040 --> 01:21:09,120
Speaker 3: got to go to places like Reagensburg and Whupatal, which

1672
01:21:09,160 --> 01:21:12,000
Speaker 3: are small little stadiums which wouldn't even qualify for the

1673
01:21:12,000 --> 01:21:14,960
Speaker 3: first division. But I lack the fight of that. It's

1674
01:21:14,960 --> 01:21:18,559
Speaker 3: a small budget. It would probably you know some are

1675
01:21:18,600 --> 01:21:20,640
Speaker 3: somewhere are probably around seven hundred and fifty to eight

1676
01:21:20,720 --> 01:21:23,920
Speaker 3: hundred thousand for the entire team, and then you have

1677
01:21:23,960 --> 01:21:27,400
Speaker 3: to figure out the rest. But the reward of making

1678
01:21:27,479 --> 01:21:30,880
Speaker 3: it to the third division would be would be wonderful.

1679
01:21:30,960 --> 01:21:33,400
Speaker 3: And then once you build a team that's going to

1680
01:21:33,439 --> 01:21:36,360
Speaker 3: get to the second division, that's where it gets really fun.

1681
01:21:36,520 --> 01:21:38,640
Speaker 3: So that's where I would go. Achen is A is

1682
01:21:38,680 --> 01:21:44,600
Speaker 3: a crazy it's an unbelievable history and it's it's not

1683
01:21:44,720 --> 01:21:49,240
Speaker 3: the easy way for sure. It It certainly is a

1684
01:21:49,280 --> 01:21:51,599
Speaker 3: fight where you're going to have to get the business right.

1685
01:21:51,680 --> 01:21:52,519
Speaker 3: So that's where I will go.

1686
01:21:53,000 --> 01:21:53,439
Speaker 4: Interesting.

1687
01:21:53,920 --> 01:21:55,479
Speaker 5: I think I'm going to be the star of season

1688
01:21:55,560 --> 01:21:59,040
Speaker 5: two of or season three of the Wrexham documentary if

1689
01:21:59,040 --> 01:22:00,080
Speaker 5: I have the option.

1690
01:22:00,240 --> 01:22:03,880
Speaker 3: The same story. You know, it's just in German.

1691
01:22:04,760 --> 01:22:06,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to the South Brighton.

1692
01:22:07,040 --> 01:22:08,200
Speaker 3: What would you you go to Brighton?

1693
01:22:09,280 --> 01:22:11,720
Speaker 1: That's so lame out of a thousand. Here are tell

1694
01:22:11,720 --> 01:22:12,320
Speaker 1: you what bright.

1695
01:22:12,240 --> 01:22:12,960
Speaker 4: And lovely city.

1696
01:22:13,000 --> 01:22:16,479
Speaker 3: But it's like saying, Monica, let's go to Monaco where

1697
01:22:16,479 --> 01:22:18,400
Speaker 3: like fifteen people and you two show up.

1698
01:22:18,439 --> 01:22:20,000
Speaker 1: I mean right, I mean I listened, I'd love to

1699
01:22:20,000 --> 01:22:22,400
Speaker 1: live in Monaco. But Brighton, I mean I've been there

1700
01:22:22,400 --> 01:22:24,679
Speaker 1: be obviously. But Tony Bloom is a film former gambler.

1701
01:22:24,960 --> 01:22:27,879
Speaker 1: He invests heavily and analytics. His scouting department is honestly

1702
01:22:27,920 --> 01:22:30,559
Speaker 1: the best in the world right now. So even though

1703
01:22:30,680 --> 01:22:32,559
Speaker 1: I can't you have a big budget like that. I

1704
01:22:32,560 --> 01:22:34,240
Speaker 1: mean they just got Matoma for three million and now

1705
01:22:34,240 --> 01:22:36,160
Speaker 1: they're going to sell him for what eighty five ninety

1706
01:22:36,160 --> 01:22:36,880
Speaker 1: in like two years.

1707
01:22:37,280 --> 01:22:39,760
Speaker 3: So well, the Veggas guy has just bought Bournemouth, so

1708
01:22:39,800 --> 01:22:41,559
Speaker 3: I mean that idea. Yeah.

1709
01:22:41,560 --> 01:22:44,479
Speaker 1: And also the Brentford is also owned by a former

1710
01:22:44,520 --> 01:22:46,280
Speaker 1: gambler as well, who that's there.

1711
01:22:46,280 --> 01:22:48,040
Speaker 4: Also the striker is a former gambler.

1712
01:22:48,439 --> 01:22:52,880
Speaker 1: Striker is that you said that gambler?

1713
01:22:53,880 --> 01:22:56,120
Speaker 3: Let's face that that was That was a crappy situation

1714
01:22:56,280 --> 01:23:00,080
Speaker 3: and I'll take yeah. Now with Brentford they must be

1715
01:23:00,080 --> 01:23:02,120
Speaker 3: bet not a tie. They got more ties than anybody,

1716
01:23:02,120 --> 01:23:03,120
Speaker 3: only four losses.

1717
01:23:03,400 --> 01:23:03,559
Speaker 1: Yep.

1718
01:23:03,760 --> 01:23:04,679
Speaker 4: Now they're in the top half.

1719
01:23:04,680 --> 01:23:08,000
Speaker 5: I don't think anybody saw that coming. So it's been crazy.

1720
01:23:08,320 --> 01:23:12,559
Speaker 1: You brought us Glodbach at six to one last week?

1721
01:23:12,640 --> 01:23:15,920
Speaker 1: Do you have another best bet orross Europe?

1722
01:23:15,960 --> 01:23:18,280
Speaker 3: Notice how I put my glasses on when I decided

1723
01:23:18,320 --> 01:23:22,679
Speaker 3: to get smart, But I do and I was looking

1724
01:23:22,760 --> 01:23:25,400
Speaker 3: at it this week and now here's the thing. Uh,

1725
01:23:25,920 --> 01:23:28,120
Speaker 3: there's a lot of sure things, sure bets. I mean,

1726
01:23:28,160 --> 01:23:30,519
Speaker 3: to be honest, I think that when you look at

1727
01:23:31,640 --> 01:23:34,439
Speaker 3: some of the fixtures, it's it's not too hard to

1728
01:23:34,439 --> 01:23:35,479
Speaker 3: figure out what's going.

1729
01:23:35,439 --> 01:23:35,760
Speaker 1: To go on.

1730
01:23:35,880 --> 01:23:38,160
Speaker 3: It happened, but they're not like Home Runner, you know

1731
01:23:38,200 --> 01:23:41,040
Speaker 3: what I mean. I don't think Lester is going to

1732
01:23:41,080 --> 01:23:44,080
Speaker 3: put up much of a fight with with Arsenal. I

1733
01:23:44,160 --> 01:23:47,000
Speaker 3: just I just don't. And we all saw that the

1734
01:23:47,400 --> 01:23:52,760
Speaker 3: Newcastle game was with Brighton was was it was postponed

1735
01:23:52,760 --> 01:23:55,800
Speaker 3: because of the Cup. But the one that's interesting me

1736
01:23:55,880 --> 01:23:59,120
Speaker 3: the most, honest to god, guys, and I'm crazy to

1737
01:23:59,160 --> 01:24:01,719
Speaker 3: say this is Bournemouth and man City.

1738
01:24:02,280 --> 01:24:03,400
Speaker 1: Great spot for Bournemouth.

1739
01:24:04,120 --> 01:24:07,240
Speaker 3: It's it's one of those you know, Crystal Palace has

1740
01:24:07,280 --> 01:24:11,240
Speaker 3: got Liverpool, but man, I'm telling you it's it's it's

1741
01:24:11,280 --> 01:24:15,760
Speaker 3: a weird one. Now it's it's you got nothing to lose,

1742
01:24:15,800 --> 01:24:17,760
Speaker 3: and I love it when teams have nothing to lose.

1743
01:24:17,800 --> 01:24:19,759
Speaker 3: That's and then let me let me check the Buddhistic

1744
01:24:19,960 --> 01:24:24,519
Speaker 3: because I wanted to wait until I got through today.

1745
01:24:24,560 --> 01:24:27,960
Speaker 3: I mean, I was very disappointed with Leipzig the way

1746
01:24:27,960 --> 01:24:31,280
Speaker 3: they started the game today. But boy, man, did they

1747
01:24:31,280 --> 01:24:34,559
Speaker 3: look terrific and that and it was a great second

1748
01:24:34,560 --> 01:24:36,920
Speaker 3: out and you got to think that maybe that was

1749
01:24:37,000 --> 01:24:42,800
Speaker 3: part of the plan. But Leipzick's got Frankfurt and in

1750
01:24:43,280 --> 01:24:46,000
Speaker 3: under those circumstances, I mean, you've got some really good

1751
01:24:46,040 --> 01:24:51,760
Speaker 3: games outside of Byron and Union Union Berlin, which is

1752
01:24:51,880 --> 01:24:53,920
Speaker 3: which is a battle for the top spot, which which

1753
01:24:54,040 --> 01:24:57,680
Speaker 3: sounds so crazy to say, Uh, Berlin doesn't stand a

1754
01:24:57,760 --> 01:25:01,280
Speaker 3: chance that that that's not even something to even Byron's

1755
01:25:01,320 --> 01:25:03,840
Speaker 3: just mad right now. And and and they said the

1756
01:25:03,880 --> 01:25:06,080
Speaker 3: timing of this for Berlin is terrible. I think they

1757
01:25:06,120 --> 01:25:09,880
Speaker 3: lose that for nil. But in the Freiburg game, it's

1758
01:25:09,920 --> 01:25:11,760
Speaker 3: a long trip for the levers and boys, but Live

1759
01:25:11,840 --> 01:25:15,920
Speaker 3: Seeking Frankfurt, guys, Live Seeking Frankfort as good as Life

1760
01:25:15,960 --> 01:25:19,240
Speaker 3: Seek looked right. That game took a lot out of them.

1761
01:25:19,760 --> 01:25:21,760
Speaker 3: It took a lot lot out of them. I mean,

1762
01:25:21,800 --> 01:25:25,120
Speaker 3: I was really surprised at how many subs were not

1763
01:25:25,200 --> 01:25:28,160
Speaker 3: made on the man City side. It was very odd

1764
01:25:28,360 --> 01:25:32,040
Speaker 3: in a time where he starts starts needing to manage bodies.

1765
01:25:32,080 --> 01:25:33,919
Speaker 3: But I think Frankfurt takes.

1766
01:25:33,680 --> 01:25:37,120
Speaker 4: Some guys all right, all right than Frankfurt. I think

1767
01:25:37,160 --> 01:25:40,280
Speaker 4: BJS on Live Stig. But a we're an anti Frankfurt pod.

1768
01:25:41,920 --> 01:25:45,760
Speaker 3: You should be. There's so many reasons to be. This

1769
01:25:45,840 --> 01:25:51,760
Speaker 3: is if you watch the uh uh Malwatte red card,

1770
01:25:51,760 --> 01:25:52,880
Speaker 3: it's not a red card.

1771
01:25:53,120 --> 01:25:53,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was harsh.

1772
01:25:54,080 --> 01:25:56,080
Speaker 3: It's just it's really harsh.

1773
01:25:56,439 --> 01:25:59,559
Speaker 1: It's really out of the Champions League.

1774
01:26:00,200 --> 01:26:02,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's and that's a rough that's a rough swing.

1775
01:26:02,479 --> 01:26:05,240
Speaker 3: So that what that means is let's back to back

1776
01:26:05,280 --> 01:26:07,479
Speaker 3: to focus. And I think Frankfort is the kind of

1777
01:26:07,479 --> 01:26:09,439
Speaker 3: team that can really sneak up and bite you in

1778
01:26:09,479 --> 01:26:11,559
Speaker 3: those kind of pockets. So as much as we call

1779
01:26:11,640 --> 01:26:13,439
Speaker 3: lips sake, don't get fooled by it. It might be

1780
01:26:13,560 --> 01:26:17,559
Speaker 3: smoking mirrors. That was good. Uh Forrestburgh came out pretty quick.

1781
01:26:18,200 --> 01:26:20,280
Speaker 3: Uh and Kuck who came into the game and was

1782
01:26:20,520 --> 01:26:23,400
Speaker 3: he looked all right. The goal probably may have been

1783
01:26:23,400 --> 01:26:25,479
Speaker 3: called back if if you could deem that a foul,

1784
01:26:25,520 --> 01:26:28,360
Speaker 3: but I think Lipeze that that sucked a lot of

1785
01:26:28,400 --> 01:26:31,280
Speaker 3: wind out of them today. Uh, and Frankfurt's pissed off,

1786
01:26:31,320 --> 01:26:34,320
Speaker 3: so I'm taking Frankfurt on a low scoring victory.

1787
01:26:34,760 --> 01:26:36,559
Speaker 1: Okay, it's fine with me. I have the under so

1788
01:26:36,640 --> 01:26:39,559
Speaker 1: we'll take that, all right, right, Good well, Eric, thank

1789
01:26:39,600 --> 01:26:41,760
Speaker 1: you very much for joining us once again, and we'll uh,

1790
01:26:41,840 --> 01:26:43,680
Speaker 1: we'll catch you next Wednesday, all right.

1791
01:26:43,720 --> 01:26:45,160
Speaker 3: And yeah, yeah, I hope you don't have to put

1792
01:26:45,160 --> 01:26:46,559
Speaker 3: on a Frankfort jersey. I know you're not.

1793
01:26:47,280 --> 01:26:49,639
Speaker 4: I don't have one, so I got a purchase on as.

1794
01:26:49,920 --> 01:26:51,920
Speaker 1: That's okay, we'll figure all.

1795
01:26:51,920 --> 01:26:54,600
Speaker 2: Right, thanks guys, and that's how we will wrap up

1796
01:26:54,640 --> 01:26:57,240
Speaker 2: this episode of Wonder Goal for b J. Huntingham, for

1797
01:26:57,280 --> 01:27:00,759
Speaker 2: Anthony Debundo, for our sponsors Patry six five Michael Ebuff

1798
01:27:01,240 --> 01:27:03,960
Speaker 2: saying Sayonara, good luck with all your bets this weekend,

1799
01:27:03,960 --> 01:27:04,920
Speaker 2: and we'll see you next week.

1800
01:27:13,720 --> 01:27:18,240
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1801
01:27:18,280 --> 01:27:21,080
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help is

1802
01:27:21,080 --> 01:27:24,200
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler