WEBVTT - Beating the Book: 2022 Week 5 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:02.360 This episode has brought to you by Yes on Prop 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.120 twenty seven and DraftKings. Half the country already allows online 0:00:06.160 --> 0:00:08.800 sports betting for adults twenty one and older. It's time 0:00:08.840 --> 0:00:12.000 to let California fans in on the action. There's no 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:14.640 good reason You're friends in New York, Chicago, Phoenix, Portland, 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:18.239 and Boston can bet online while Californians are still forced 0:00:18.280 --> 0:00:23.040 to deal with shady bookies. Prove insures California finally catches up, 0:00:23.320 --> 0:00:34.200 So vote yes on prope Check it down Man Now 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:40.240 Down Now Suesday morning, October n In the book podcast 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:44.159 Mega Pod for a week number five in the National 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:47.920 Football League, It's Gill Alexander live from the South Plam 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:50.040 Hotel Casino, tip of the Strip. It's the South Point 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:52.320 for for the rest of you. Uh. South Plam is 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:53.920 what we like to call it Cleave. Michael Gone will 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:57.600 La will accept that pronunciation. It makes it more worldly. 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:00.920 It does absolutely um. By the way, I've run into 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:03.120 Michael Gone, who owns the South Point from time to time, 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:06.200 and he looks at me with a vague familiarity. He's like, 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:08.800 I think this guy is supposed to be here. Uh. 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:11.360 That is the voice of West Reynolds. He is from Visa. 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:14.040 He is the guest, the rotating guest on the podcast UH. 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:16.520 This week he's the co host with Fami Bebifet of 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:20.080 visen Live bet tonight Monday through Friday, nine pm Eastern, 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:23.560 six pm Pacific here on the network West Glad to 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:27.200 have you man, Glad you could, and of course the 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:29.720 staples of the show alongside here at the south Point 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:33.080 Jeff Parlay, Ladies and gentleman used to be producing number 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:35.240 five and eight, the Grover Cleveland producers on a numbers game. 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:37.480 Now he hosts his own weekend show here at the 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:42.640 network with Ben Wilson. Usually usually yeah, not usually, that 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:45.880 isn't always. Actually, I've bet Saturday and Sunday see the 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:48.480 weekend version of what West does. And you and Ben 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.760 have known each other for ages, so you guys are buddy. 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:53.320 So you guys are just clowning around all weekend long essentially. 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:56.640 That's yeah, the eleven years now, that's a great program 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.720 right there. And ladies, gentlemen from his mom's cork addict 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:03.559 way in at two hundred and three American pounds, Todd 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:06.840 wish neev how you doing man, that's me baby, that's 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:09.959 me two oh three, over a hundred pounds lost. Yeah, 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:14.160 baby Pesik is at what now? He was two hundred 0:02:14.200 --> 0:02:17.600 on Monday. However today he's at one four because he 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:21.080 hasn't been eating for three days. Well on Monday, I 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:23.359 was two or four. He was two hundred. He got nervous, 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:27.240 so he hasn't eaten anything basically for for three days. 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:30.960 And now he's But it's a gaze because it is 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:33.280 soon as as soon as he starts eating again, he's 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:36.520 gonna blimp back out and I'm gonna fly right by him. 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:40.560 I'm Wisconsin, the old Wisconsin against ball State. You just 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:42.520 hand him the ball. It's now the getting to the 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:46.519 fourth quarter and cash. His defensive line is tired. I 0:02:46.600 --> 0:02:51.000 tell him every day. Steve Fezi back to back Hilton 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:54.399 Super Contest, winners of football handicapping contest back in the day, 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:57.720 and the bet once again Todd will win nine thousand dollars. 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:00.360 Steve would win three thousand depending on the come but 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:02.160 Todd well on his way to nine thousand if he 0:03:02.200 --> 0:03:05.600 passes Steve. Uh Steve had a like a sixty pound 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:11.600 head start in this and his hair great air sixty 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:14.440 two pound head start started in May of this year 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:17.360 theoretically would go to May of next year. But at 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:21.160 any point, if Todd passes Steve in the weight loss challenge, 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:25.800 then it's over. It's all over and Todd wish unless 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:28.559 he gets to one before me. Well, he knows. He's 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:30.720 a smart enough guy to know that this this strategy 0:03:30.760 --> 0:03:33.320 is unsustainable, right, Like he can't just fast what was it, 0:03:33.400 --> 0:03:37.800 young kipor every day for him? Yeah? Yeah, he basically 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:40.360 is playing the young Kior system. Maybe Steve that more, 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:42.880 maybe has more sins to a table than the Catholic 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:48.320 on this panel gets that joke. Alright, Um, so let's 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:51.000 do court stenographer first. We're kind of killing it on 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:54.120 this little show, aren't we this year? Yeah, Scilly the 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:56.560 iceman is no longer the ice man. This guy can 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:59.440 just hit him. He was seven and two coming and 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:03.680 he wounded a nice little Raiders and cards a stinky 0:04:03.760 --> 0:04:06.800 Rams pick. But two and one is very solid for 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:10.040 nine and three. His teaser lost, as a lot of 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.040 our teasers lost because a lot of us had Rams 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:14.720 plus seven and plast week have sucked this year. Yeah, 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:18.400 he's two and two on the teaser. Jeffrey is that 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:21.279 guy's like a Hall of Famer, the likes of the 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:27.920 Houston quarterback three he's at Davis Mills Hall of Famer. 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:30.000 He's six and three, hits three and oh with the 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:34.160 cards have tied the over in the l A Clippers 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:38.520 Houston game, and the races and the rates for his 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:41.560 nine and three he stole my Raiders pick uh and 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:44.200 he's not allowed to bet the Clippers next week. Then 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:49.320 you can't bet basketball teams anymore at quarterback now l 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:52.160 A C l A C. Same thing. I came in 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:54.240 at four and five, went a solid two and one 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:58.200 with my Raiders, my Tennessee plus three and a half, 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:00.440 and I got cheated in the Bill's Ravens game because 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:05.760 always a Chief, always and it was a solid winner. 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:09.159 And then it just just fizzled. So I am now 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:13.000 six and six. Our guest picker came in six and three, 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:16.279 another solid week, two and one for Chernoff, Seahawks plus 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:18.279 four was a winner, Pats plus nine and a half 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:20.640 was a winner, and Saints plus two and a half 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:22.359 did not get there. You know what I mean? You 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:24.560 know what I love about turn off dm me. He's like, 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:27.920 I cared more about the podcast picks than anything I 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:32.159 was doing this week, which I appreciate about it. Yes, yes, 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:35.000 So anyways, very very solid, two nine and threes. The 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:36.760 guest is eight four and I'm six and six, so 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:39.360 you can't ask for better than that. Really real nice job. 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:41.600 I wish I would be playing my millions picks because 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:43.880 I have two millions entries, ones at fifteen and five, 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:48.080 ones at fourteen, five and one that are sniffing goodness. 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:51.040 So that's interesting because my millions is not as good. 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:53.760 It's twelve and eight and west and Jeff, you guys 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:56.680 do a millions together, right, Yeah, we're twelve and eight. Yeah, 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.760 twelve and eight doesn't feel fun and eight six for 0:05:59.880 --> 0:06:02.040 that good season that you will take every single year. 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:04.200 But in the contest you are d o A. You 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:07.760 are d o A drawing dead for sure on that. 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:09.480 So wait, So it's nine and three, nine and three, 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:13.440 eight and four and six and six, eighteen and six, 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:17.400 twenty six and ten. You're six and six, thirty two 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:20.000 and sixteen. That is six. That is two out of three. 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:22.560 That is six six seven right there in the percentage. 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:25.680 We will take that. We'll take it thirty two and 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:28.640 sixteen collectively on this yere podcast, and the teasers sucked 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:32.359 right teasers me and jefferre Owen four and Gilly is 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:33.960 two and two and the guest is two and two. 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:38.279 I am not taking another Wong teaser the rest of 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:42.480 the season, just just just for just just for research purposes. 0:06:42.560 --> 0:06:44.760 Now now we are, now we are going to piss 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:48.000 off every single math person that listens to us taking 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:51.360 by not by taking non Wong teasers, which the only 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:53.360 one I should have won this year was the only 0:06:53.440 --> 0:06:55.520 non Wong one that I did, and I lost on 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.120 Pitchy Pitchy Woo Will on Thursday Night with the Steelers, 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:00.720 who Here's what I want to know? What's the oh 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:02.720 and like? If you guys go oh and seven? If 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:04.160 one of you goes oh and seven, oh and a, 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:06.320 what's the week where you're oh for where you're like, 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:09.320 I retire from teasers entirely at that point. I would 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:13.320 just go for eight Booby Price teaser for the show. Yeah, 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:16.840 one student Booby Price teaser. All right, um, okay, before 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:18.840 we get to all of our best bets and all 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:22.160 the standard questions of the show, um, we of course 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:24.440 have these new staples this week, one of which and 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:26.560 Jason conn just loves these because he gets to put 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:28.960 in a drop, the first of which is the coaching 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:40.160 dumbbell of the week. I don't know, I don't know 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:45.840 how I feel about that. Can't gonna just pop out. 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:48.840 It's it's straight out, isn't it. It could have been 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:53.640 it could have been about ten seconds less. But anyways, Uh, 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:56.160 I think was very able. Not getting a field goal 0:07:56.160 --> 0:07:58.320 at the end of the first half was very suspect. 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:00.960 I thought that was some silliness. We've got some candidates, 0:08:01.080 --> 0:08:05.840 right Vrabel nut Vrabel? Well no hold on? So yeah, well, okay, 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:07.520 which was yours? Vrabel at the end of the Well, 0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:09.280 they didn't at the end of the first half. They 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:14.880 just botched the whole goal, right, they bought They botched 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:17.960 the time. That's I wouldn't even put that in like 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:21.040 the top three. I mean, okay, how about Frank Rych 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:26.040 kicking a field goal down seven mine? How much time 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:30.200 was two minutes? Two minutes left in the game? How 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:33.840 was it? Fourth? And what I'll get you the exact 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:36.679 Ryan Ryan got all right, I think you Ryan fumbled 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:39.000 the ball one of his nine bumbles he already has 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:41.360 this year, by the way, and then uh that put 0:08:41.400 --> 0:08:43.720 them where they were kind of in that no man's land. 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:48.400 I'll tell you exactly what it was. Down fourth and 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:51.040 twenty one at the Tennessee thirty three two oh four, 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:54.280 left all three time outs in pocket ch ops for 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:57.480 a Chase McLaughlin fifty one yard field goal, which, by 0:08:57.520 --> 0:08:59.319 the way they split second that it came off his toe, 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:02.959 had no prayer, no chance whatsoever. He was, by the way, 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:05.400 just activated last week because remember the Colts got rid 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:08.880 of blankets, right Rodrigo blanketship in the rexpects. And then 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:11.160 of course the number one kididate has to be that 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:14.240 John Harbaugh controversy. Should he have kicked a field goal 0:09:14.640 --> 0:09:18.160 and gone up three against the Buffalo Bills with four 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:22.160 plus minutes left. We're giving a pass to both Cliff 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:27.280 Kingsbury and Nick Sirianni because there were kicker issues in 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:31.280 both cases. Right, Matt Prater was hurt and Jake Elliott was, 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:36.400 plus Jake Elliott had weather issues. So doesn't I don't 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:38.800 hate it? I did at the time. How did you 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:40.679 feel about that West? Did you hate it? No? I 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:43.400 don't because I I kind of got the point that 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:45.480 it's just the worst thing that could have happened is 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:48.600 what happened, and that's Lamar through an interception and Buffalo 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:50.640 gets a touchback. But it is part of the calculus, 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:53.400 right that happen. It is, But if you don't get it, 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:56.319 you have Buffalo pinned on the two. And that's what 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:58.520 I think a lot of people aren't aren't recognizing here 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:01.920 and maybe aren't talking about that totally changes the play call. Yeah, 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:05.520 can Josh Allen go nine yards? Absolutely, but that's eighteen 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:09.080 you know, plus yards less of field position. So yeah, 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:11.640 you're probably gonna run the ball on first and second down, 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:13.760 you know, because teams always do that when they're pined 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:16.240 deep to try to get them some room in case 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:18.360 they get stops of their putter. Putter is not on 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:20.840 the very back white line of the end zone. But 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:23.880 you know, you saw what Buffalo was doing. Because that's 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:25.560 why I didn't hate it as much, because it's like 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:28.559 Buffalo was going down there to get some kind of points. 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.400 They were taking knees at the end to end up 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:34.160 kicking the winning field goal. So I didn't necessarily have 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:36.120 a problem with us. You're gonna need a TV, Like 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:38.920 you said, you're gonna need a TV. You're not beating 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.800 them with a field goal. Yeah, Yeah, we're gonna partly 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:43.679 because he should should have top, but for that one 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:45.800 I I felt at that moment. I'm just gonna be 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:47.840 honest about how I felt at that moment. I was like, 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:52.040 I can't believe they're not taking the lead here, because 0:10:52.040 --> 0:10:54.199 with four minutes it was there's ten minutes left, I'm 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:57.160 on your side. But with four minutes left, you're just 0:10:57.200 --> 0:11:00.640 talking about trying to end the football game. And so 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:03.160 I was a little surprised by that, Like, I get 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.120 the case for the opposite, but I would have kicked 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:06.520 the field goal. I really would have at the time. 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:08.440 You know, what do you always say about when you 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:13.280 have a bed in pocket? I had Baltimore plus three 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:17.439 betted on Sunday morning. I wanted them to go for it, okay, 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:22.480 because two reasons wanting Baltimore's defense is horrible, absolutely horrible. 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:25.480 And we saw it up twenty to three, where their 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:27.520 defense was great for about a quarter and a half. 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:29.600 They were terrible the last two and a half quarters 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:32.040 of that game. And we saw the same thing against Miami, 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:34.760 and really, if it wasn't for mac Jones being bad, 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:37.360 the same thing happened against New England as well. Matt 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:42.280 Jones made two horrible throws in that game at the 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:45.440 end that it saved them. Yeah. So, so there were 0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:47.440 a lot of things that went in their fashion, but 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:49.840 I wanted them to go for it because I had 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:51.320 no faith that they were going to get a stop. 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:53.000 Then I'll give it to you. So that I adhered 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:55.679 to the betting truth SERREMI. More than anything, I wanted them. 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:57.320 I didn't want them to run the play they did. 0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:00.680 I wanted at that point, I wanted lamar legs to 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:03.360 be what got in the end zone there, not Lamar's arm. 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:05.920 I didn't like the play call more so than it 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:07.760 so than your vote is for Frank Rereik, then yeah, 0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:09.480 I think it's Frankreik for sure. I know it's no 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:13.960 man's land on four, but you cannot kick in that scenario, 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:16.920 especially with a crappy kicker who of course didn't even 0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:18.920 come quick even though it was a win. Do we 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:23.079 not nominate Zach Taylor? Though? For the Thursday night game 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:26.319 where where there it's fifteen and fourteen, they send McPherson out. 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:28.080 I think it's like fourth and goal at the one 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:31.319 to go up seventeen and fifteen. That was after McDaniel 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:35.720 by the way, that game was a was a a 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:39.800 trade off of nineteen fifties football decision making. The other 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.480 one is and will land into this the Minnesota Vikings, 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:43.680 like I don't know if you got up early and 0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:46.400 watch the London game, but like on guessing lines, I 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:50.160 spent four or five minutes just I'm going through everything 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:53.600 Minnesota did ridiculously in that game and they still ended 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:55.960 up winning. But they like the the amount of stuff 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.640 the Vikings, and I'll just mention some of them here, 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:00.319 but the amount of stuff they did in that game 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:04.480 and still came out victorious was incredible, um with But 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:06.600 that was more penalties in a lot of cases, so 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:08.679 never mind, that's a little different. It's more penalties in 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:10.360 that case. You used to have faith that this is 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:14.600 here from Minnesota. Even three none whatsoever, that's going out 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:17.480 the window. Those are my two so far through four 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:21.400 games by two worst calls. Minnesota Indianapolis. I think Indies. 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.000 The Indie might on top of being one of the 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:26.040 biggest disappointments, and they of course played to night, so 0:13:26.080 --> 0:13:28.719 we'll get to that in a second, but they might 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:30.560 be one of the five worst teams in the NFL. 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:34.480 Forget being Aaron Shots and Football Outsiders has them dead 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:36.720 last in t V O way, I don't have a 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:40.920 problem with that is them in Houston, Indiana, Nay Indiana 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.679 native West Reynolds on the show. So many problems with 0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:46.840 that team. Not only Todd mentioned Maddie Ice nine fumbles, 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.000 he is on pace to shatter to the record, which 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.440 I believe is co held by Dante Culpepper and Carrie 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.360 Colins want a collection. I mean, he's on taste to 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:58.880 have like thirty plus fumbles. The records just barely over twenty. 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:01.400 And part of that too because the offensive line, which is, 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:03.240 by the way, the highest paid line in the NFL. 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.800 What happened to Quinn Nelson. I have no idea. You 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:09.240 paid twenty million dollars to a guard and I guess 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:11.600 this is what you get right now. The offensive lines 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:14.320 badge on it than Taylor, who's not going tonight, hasn't 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:16.760 been able to get off. They're still kind of trying 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:20.960 to settle on that receiving corps. They've been a real disappointment. 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:23.800 And then Darius Leonard, who just came back against Tennessee, 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:26.200 is going to miss the Denver game at least with 0:14:26.280 --> 0:14:29.720 the concussion so you know the Ballard bike regime. I 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:31.840 think the bloom is kind of off the rose. Jim 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:33.680 Mercy has tried to be loss a fair and be 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.320 hands off and let these guys around the team. I 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:38.160 think it's time then the owner is gonna have to 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:40.760 step in very damn soon in Indianapolis. So let's talk 0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:43.200 about these games tonight Thursday Night football Colts at the Bronco. 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:45.040 Wait before we get to that, can I just do 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:47.240 my in game segment because I think it's a really 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:51.400 good one. I had one that I was really happy 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:54.480 with myself about. Um, you know, I basically had a 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:57.080 middling week with my in game stuff. But there was 0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:02.240 one on Sunday Night football. U Uh. Tampa Bay was 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:04.520 after they gave up a touchdown to go down thirty 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:07.600 eight seventeen at the five forty two mark, or the 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:11.200 third quarter. The Chiefs are now leading by twenty one. 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:14.200 The line came up some places at sixteen and some 0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:17.360 places at seventeen and a half. I found a place, 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:19.560 you know, one of my places. At seventeen and a half. 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.960 I took the Tampa Bay plus another down twenty one. 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:25.480 I took him plus seventeen and a half. At that point. 0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:28.960 Reason being, Tampa Bay was moving the ball the entire 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.280 you know, second quarter, in early third quarter, they were 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:34.800 moving the football. They looked like they can score, and 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:37.040 you're getting them at seventeen and a half when you 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:38.800 know Kansas City is just gonna run the ball in 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.520 the fourth quarter and there's huge chances for back to 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.760 our touchdowns as well. I'm getting seventeen and a half 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:48.440 in that spot, I have to take it immediately. They 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:50.960 come down, they get to touchdown to go thirty twenty four, 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:53.280 and the Chiefs come down and kick a field goal 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:57.360 to go up seventeen. So that that seventeen versus the 0:15:57.400 --> 0:15:59.600 sixteen and a half was I mean, the seventeen and 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:01.600 a half verse the sixth team was a huge thing, 0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:03.880 which I you know, knew because there was obviously a 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:05.960 chance that Casey would kick the field goal, so they go, 0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:09.960 but it was all it didn't matter anyways, because Tampa 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:11.360 Bay was going to get to the backdoor touched on 0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:14.920 which they did final. So that's the kind of thing 0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:17.000 you have to look at these teams. A team that 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:21.280 can move the football down big has to be taken 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:24.200 because the other team is going to just run the 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:26.680 ball and punter, get a field goal or something like that, 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:30.200 and you're going to get a chance for backdoor touchdowns 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:32.840 with teams that can move the football. I love it. 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:36.240 Your it's your facing pro tip of the podcast. No, 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:38.480 it's a it's a teams that can move the football 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:41.640 down big gotta take it like the Falcons the other 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.040 I did the Falcons one a couple of weeks ago, 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:45.680 when they were moving the ball up and down against 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:49.000 the Rams. Down. You have to take that kind of team. 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:50.920 I will say this, and I don't mean to like 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.400 Needle parlay, but I paid so little attention to that 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:57.880 Sunday night football game because I was so locked into 0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:00.120 the Braves and the Mets. So all of that wass 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:02.440 on me. But I'm glad you brought it up. Um, 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:04.280 I want big on that game. That was my one 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:08.679 big nice Alright, So tonight's game Colts at Broncos. Um, 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:10.320 I'll be honest, I have no bets on this. The 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:13.240 Broncos at three point favorites, and if you just sort of, 0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:15.760 you know again, talk about what's the case for either team, 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:18.000 I'll just do like a thumbnail the Colts. Well, first 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:20.080 of all, the Broncos side I mean, you can make 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.080 a huge case here for the Broncos, I suppose, and 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:25.600 the fact that this is first of all, with Maddie 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:28.320 Ice and all his fumble problems, it's a short week 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:32.960 into elevation on the road. There's no Jonathan Taylor, there's 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:35.280 no Shaquille Leonard as as West mentioned, there's also no 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.359 um there's no Julian Blackman, there's no Tae Kwon Lewis. 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:41.960 On the Colts defense, do you give Denver a pass 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:45.119 for their performance against the the Niners when it was 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:48.680 in you know, elevation there as well? Because San Francisco's 0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:50.959 defense has looked really good since, so maybe you give 0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:53.159 them pass for that. So there's I mean, there's a 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:56.320 lot going against the Colts in that respect, and they're 0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:58.040 dead last, as we mentioned in d v O A, 0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:00.760 if you believe in that kind of metric. On the 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:03.600 other hand, what's the counter. No Javonte Williams for the Broncos. 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:06.320 He's done for the year, Melvin Gordon has fumble litis, 0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:07.879 He's fumbled four times in the last four games. He 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.199 probably wouldn't be playing. If Javontay Williams, he'd be on 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:13.800 riding the bench. If Javonte Williams wasn't done Josh Jacob's 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:17.399 gash this defense last week, Josh Jacob's gash is nobody. 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:19.280 And then the Broncos have had games offensively, We've had 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:21.080 like a nine three and ounce in one game, they 0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:23.080 only had twelve first downs against the Raiders. So I 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:25.200 don't know what to do with this. Wes, do you 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:28.000 have a play? Yeah, I haven't played anything yet. I 0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:30.960 am actually looking at the over, which you would look 0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:32.959 at the numbers and be like, how the hell can 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:35.080 you look at the over? The Colts are dead last 0:18:35.119 --> 0:18:38.080 and scoring offense four teen point three. Denver not much 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:41.000 better at sixteen point five. But I think when you 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:43.320 look at the game plans and the big way the 0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:46.639 injuries are gonna play out here because Jonathan Taylor is out, 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:48.600 and look the Colts offensive line. They haven't run the 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:51.439 ball very well anyway this year. But you're gonna have 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.359 name Hines now. They're gonna use Hynes more out in 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:58.200 the passing game. So Philip Lindsay has actually been activated 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:00.800 from the practice squad. I former Denver Anco, by the way, 0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:04.480 played football in Colorado, former Buffalo, so you know, big 0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:06.400 game for him. You would expect he's gonna be full 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:08.080 of piss in vinegar and want to run, you know, 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:11.040 and really have a great game here. But they're gonna 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:12.919 use Hines out of the backfield. And that's what a 0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:15.200 lot of Colts fans have been calling for this year, 0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:17.920 is to use Hines. In terms of the passing game, 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:20.239 I think finally the Colts figured out a little bit 0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:23.800 against Kansas City and especially against Tennessee. Hey, Frank Rich 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:26.439 used the tight ends a little bit more and Moile 0:19:26.600 --> 0:19:29.200 Cox had a couple of touchdowns. Granson has been good. 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:32.320 The rookie Gilanni Woods has been good. So you know, 0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:34.720 just looking at what the Colts are gonna do out 0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:36.440 of expect that they're going to move the football a 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:38.800 little bit better through the air. And I would expect 0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:40.320 Denver is going to do the same too. We know 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:43.800 Javonte Williams is out. They're still gonna run with Melvin 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:47.440 Gordon and Mike Boone, I I think, but the Colts 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:49.840