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Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Betting PROSPGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris.

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Speaker 1: That's Pau McBrayer. PGA Tour continues its Midwest swing this

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Speaker 1: week with the John Deere Classic. Climb aboard your tractor

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Speaker 1: for our full betting preview of the John Deere. We

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Speaker 1: will also quickly recap the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and at

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Speaker 1: the end of the show, we'll give you our one

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Speaker 1: and done picks for the week. The Betting pros PGA

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Speaker 1: podcast is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Underdog is the place

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Speaker 1: to go for best ball fantasy football contests, but you

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Speaker 1: might not have known that Underdog is golf contests as well.

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Speaker 1: Visit Underdog Fantasy dot com or find Underdog in the

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Speaker 1: app store, and don't forget to register with the promo

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Speaker 1: to get a first time deposit offer up to two

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars in bonus cash. More on Underdog

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Speaker 1: and its golf contest a little bit later. Wild finish

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Speaker 1: at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. The wind really

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Speaker 1: picked up on Sunday, so we did not get a

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Speaker 1: final day birdie Fest, but we did get plenty of

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Speaker 1: drama down the stretch. Cam Davis finished minus eighteen to

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Speaker 1: win by a shot over four players Akshe Batia, Minwu,

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Speaker 1: Lee Davis, Thompson and Aaron Raie. It's the second ever

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Speaker 1: PGA Tour win for Davis. Both have come at the

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Speaker 1: Rocket Mortgage Classic. The lanky Australian also won in Detroit

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Davis was one off the lead

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Speaker 1: going into Sunday. Opened his final round with a bogie,

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Speaker 1: but then made three birdies on the front side to

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Speaker 1: shoot at thirty four and get to minus eighteen. Davis

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Speaker 1: lost a shot with a bogie on fourteen par five,

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Speaker 1: then birdie the par five seventeenth to get back to

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Speaker 1: eighteen under and eat a nice up and down to

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Speaker 1: par the eighteenth hall that proved to be enough for

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Speaker 1: some of the runners up missed opportunities and heartbreak. Aaron

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Speaker 1: Ryan Akha Batia were the co leaders going into the

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Speaker 1: final round. Rye opened with a birdie but only made

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Speaker 1: two more birdies the rest of the day and shot

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Speaker 1: in even par seventy two. Aksha made the turn at

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Speaker 1: minus eighteen and rattle off eight straight pars on the

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Speaker 1: back nine, but then he three putted the eighteenth green,

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Speaker 1: missing a four foot par putt that would have forced

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Speaker 1: a playoff, but he had also missed a nine foot

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Speaker 1: birdie putt on seventeen. Young Akshay has to feel like

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Speaker 1: he let a win slip through his grass to his

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Speaker 1: two weeks in a row. Also very frustrating for those

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Speaker 1: of us who bet on Young Akshay or had him

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Speaker 1: in a one and done pool as one of us

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Speaker 1: bet on him, one of us had him in a

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Speaker 1: one and done. Minwu Lee will also have some regrets.

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Speaker 1: Minwu carded a seven on the par five to seventh

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Speaker 1: hole three, putting from just over six feet, but then

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Speaker 1: got back into contention by burdying five of the next

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Speaker 1: ten holes. But then min Wu also bogied the eighteenth

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Speaker 1: hole to cost himself a sudden death playoff. Berth Davis

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Speaker 1: Thompson had a sixty eight on Sunday, one of the

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Speaker 1: guys who finished second and could actually good about what

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Speaker 1: he did. Sixty eight was a very good round in

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Speaker 1: those conditions, one of the lowest of the day, but

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Speaker 1: he was not able to drop a twenty one foot

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Speaker 1: birdie try on the eighteenth. He too, finished one shot

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Speaker 1: out of a playoff, but What were your takeaways from

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Speaker 1: the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Sunday was brutal. They had dropping temperature fifteen

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Speaker 2: twenty degrees and the wind picked up, and even though

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Speaker 2: the course was wet, it worked against him where it

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Speaker 2: got tougher. Even though it was receptive out there, they

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Speaker 2: were hitting the ball about fifteen yards shorter. Just it

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Speaker 2: was a slog out there. It was really tough to

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Speaker 2: make birdies except for I mean, obviously the part the

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Speaker 2: four part fives were gettable. They were just a lot longer,

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Speaker 2: and you were seeing some of the longer hitters still

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Speaker 2: not reaching them in two because of how soft everything

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Speaker 2: that was, and they were kind of all upwind. So

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Speaker 2: it was really tough, and that course actually showed a

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Speaker 2: little bit of teeth out there. It was the first

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Speaker 2: time we've seen Detroit Golf Club show any of that

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Speaker 2: adversity to the players all week. And my guy cam

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Speaker 2: Young was primed to charge and take his first PGA

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Speaker 2: Tour win, but he had the snap hooks on Sunday

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Speaker 2: and enough snap hooks, and he got frustrated and broke

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Speaker 2: the shaft on his driver. And when you break a

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Speaker 2: club in frustration versus if it just breaks on its own,

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Speaker 2: you can't replace it. So he played the most of

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Speaker 2: the back nine with his three wood off the tee,

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Speaker 2: which for him is still three hundred plus yards. But

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Speaker 2: he wasn't able to put himself in scoring opportunities on

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Speaker 2: those part fives, and he could not make a putt.

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Speaker 2: And we're talking about already one of the worst putters

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Speaker 2: on the PGA Tour had himself one of the worst

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Speaker 2: performances I've ever seen any professional golfer putt on the

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Speaker 2: back nine Sunday. He should have won going away, but

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Speaker 2: you could tell he was steaming. He couldn't find the fairway.

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Speaker 2: Therefore he couldn't attack the pins like he wanted to,

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Speaker 2: and where the the the golf course was there for

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Speaker 2: the taking. It just seemed like cam Young was the

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Speaker 2: most disappointing performer, even though Akhay had a chance to

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Speaker 2: force the playoff. It was just it wasn't enough. Cam

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Speaker 2: Davis did enough to win. Nobody really seized that win.

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Speaker 2: It was just kind of like, well, Cam Davis, shrug

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Speaker 2: your shoulders, Akhay pulls the four footer at the end,

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Speaker 2: and you got yourself your second win in Detroit overall,

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Speaker 2: and that's that's awesome, But I mean I had Cam

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Speaker 2: Davis in DFS, but it wasn't somebody I was really

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Speaker 2: betting on, So I was. I was disappointed in Cam Young,

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Speaker 2: just kind of melting down within himself. His golf game

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Speaker 2: was frustrating him, but then the mental game part of

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Speaker 2: it down the stretch where even even down to the

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Speaker 2: last couple holes, he still had a chance and he

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Speaker 2: still just threw it away.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of regrets from this one ball, A

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Speaker 1: lot of regrets. Maybe some guys looking for vengeance when

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Speaker 1: they get to the John Deere class this week. More

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Speaker 1: on the John Deere in a moment, But first, our

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Speaker 1: friends at Underdog Fantasy are letting you make picks on

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Speaker 1: your favorite golfers all season long. Just pick higher or

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Speaker 1: lower on selected stats for two to five golfers and

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Speaker 1: a single day. You can also make rivals picks, choosing,

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Speaker 1: for example, which of two golfers will shoot a better

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Speaker 1: score in a round. Golf picks can be combined with players'

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Speaker 1: stats from other sports too. Go sign up at Underdog

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Speaker 1: The John Deere Classic will once again be held at

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Speaker 1: TPC Deer Run in Sylvis, Illinois. It's a course designed

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Speaker 1: by former tour player Da Wybring. TPC Deer Run is

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Speaker 1: a par seventy one measuring seven two hundred eighty nine yards.

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Speaker 1: Fairways are generous, The bentgrass greens are big and not

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Speaker 1: especially challenging. There's some elevation changes and players will get

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Speaker 1: some uneven line eyes on these rolling fairways. But let's

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Speaker 1: face it, the John Dear Classic is and always has

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Speaker 1: been a birdie fest. Four rounds of sixty eight probably

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Speaker 1: aren't gonna get it done. They're not going to get

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Speaker 1: you that oversized winners check on TPC Deer Run. You

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Speaker 1: need to go low to win here. Sepstraca is the

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Speaker 1: defending champ. He finished at minus twenty one last year,

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Speaker 1: two shots clear of the field. Straca opened with a

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Speaker 1: two over par seventy three last year, which would normally

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Speaker 1: be a death sentence in this tournament, but he roared

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Speaker 1: back with rounds of sixty three, sixty five in a

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Speaker 1: blistering sixty two on Sunday. Other recent winners J T

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Speaker 1: Postin in twenty twenty two. He also finished at minus

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Speaker 1: twenty one. Lucas Glover in twenty twenty one, finished in

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Speaker 1: minus nineteen no John Deere Classic in twenty twenty due

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Speaker 1: to COVID. Dylan for Telly won in twenty nineteen with

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Speaker 1: the score of twenty one under par, and in twenty

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Speaker 1: eighteen Michael Kim completely blitz the field, finishing minus twenty seven,

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Speaker 1: eight shots clear of the field. Ye Now, the weather

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Speaker 1: could make this slightly less of a birdie fest than usual,

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Speaker 1: maybe not unlike what we saw in Detroit on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Temperatures should be in the upper seventies to low eighties throughout.

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Speaker 1: Chances for rain on Thursday and Friday, but nothing that

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Speaker 1: looks too ominous. Probably won't be a washout, but it

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Speaker 1: does look like it could get pretty breezy on Friday, Saturday,

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Speaker 1: and Sunday, with winds of ten to twenty miles per

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Speaker 1: hour on Friday and wins of ten to fifteen on

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Speaker 1: the weekend. Bow your thoughts on TPC Deer Run and

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Speaker 1: this tournament in general.

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Speaker 2: Pretty similar to the last week's tournament in Detroit. I

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Speaker 2: mean the Midwest Swing is it is what it is.

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Speaker 2: It's it's a lot of straightforward golf that if you're

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Speaker 2: playing well, you can you can do wellen And because

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Speaker 2: the field is so weak, especially since Patrick Can'tley dropped out,

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Speaker 2: we really don't have anybody that stands out as a

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Speaker 2: superstar in this field. So he gets there's another chance

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Speaker 2: to talk about these lesser known names that are going

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Speaker 2: to be household names in the near future. I actually

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Speaker 2: like events like this because we can we can take

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Speaker 2: different approaches, Like some people want to condense their their

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Speaker 2: betting slip to something where you have one guy in

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Speaker 2: each tier, or you have even one guy at the

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Speaker 2: at the as a favorite and another long shot and

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Speaker 2: they just call it good and wait for next week's

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Speaker 2: Scottish Open or even the Open Championship in a couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks. I'm gonna do the opposite. I'm gonna take

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Speaker 2: a bunch of stabs, low risk stabs at a bunch

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Speaker 2: of different guys ranging from the very top of the

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Speaker 2: board to the very bottom of the board. I have

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Speaker 2: a whole list of names to go over tonight that

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Speaker 2: is going that are going to be on the forefront

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Speaker 2: of Birdie making and getting getting the ball in the

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Speaker 2: hole and getting hot at the right time. This, this

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Speaker 2: golf course really does lend itself to recent form. It's

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Speaker 2: very important here. I'm I'm excited for this one. It's

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be fun and you'll like this pat This

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Speaker 2: tournament traditionally favors the Midwestern That's right.

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Speaker 1: Steve Stricker a fellow Wisconsin native. He dominated this this

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Speaker 1: for a long time. Iowa Zach Johnson has farreedwell traditionally.

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Speaker 1: I think I think Adam Schenk, who's got a pretty

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Speaker 1: good track record here, is also a Midwestern guy. So

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Speaker 1: this has been a very kind tournament to the Midwest folk. Yep, yeah, so,

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Speaker 1: And I do find this sort of a refreshing betting opportunity.

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Speaker 1: We've had so many tournaments this year with Scottie Scheffler

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Speaker 1: checking in at odds of less than you know, shorter

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Speaker 1: than four to one, and some other guys, and maybe

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Speaker 1: we would have seen pretty short odds for Patrick Cantley,

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Speaker 1: who pulled out of the tournament, was initially entered, backed out,

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Speaker 1: and you know, so now we don't have really any

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Speaker 1: clear and obvious favorites. But more on the odds and

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Speaker 1: the field than just a moment. If you want a

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Speaker 1: chance to win a free one year Premium Betting Pro subscription,

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, comment

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Speaker 1: below on this video and that's it. We'll be announcing

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Speaker 1: app today to find profitable betting systems. Now, the field

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Speaker 1: for the John Deere Classic BO traditionally pretty weak, and

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Speaker 1: we're not going to see Scotti here this week. A

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Speaker 1: lot of the top players are in the habit of

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Speaker 1: skipping this in ad advance of the British Open, but

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Speaker 1: with John Deere Classic now coming two weeks before the

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Speaker 1: British Open rather than immediately before, this year's field not terrible.

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Speaker 1: So let's get to the odds for the John Deere Classic,

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Speaker 1: all courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday afternoon. Sung JM

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Speaker 1: is the favorite at plus sixteen hundred, defending champ Sepstraca

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Speaker 1: and former John Deere champ Jordan Speith both plus eighteen hundred,

227
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Speaker 1: Aaron Riyz plus two thousand, Danny McCarthy plus twenty two hundred,

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Speaker 1: Davis Thompson plus twenty five hundred, Maverick McNeely and Keith

229
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Speaker 1: Mitchell plus three thousand, Nick Dunlap, JT. Postin and Jason

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Speaker 1: Day plus thirty five hundred, Sam Stevens plus four thousand,

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Speaker 1: Luke Clinton, Kevin yw and Adams Fence and plus forty

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Speaker 1: five hundred, and Eric Cole, Bo Hostler and Lucas Glover

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Speaker 1: plus five thousand. Anyone you like from this group.

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Speaker 2: Bo start right at the top with Sung JM. Even

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Speaker 2: though he's not the greatest off the tee. It's c

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Speaker 2: retainly not penal here. He does in easy scoring conditions.

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Speaker 2: He does well when approach proximity matters, especially with pitching

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Speaker 2: wedge and shorter. I think that you're gonna see Sung JM,

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Speaker 2: who has found his short game, has found a hutting

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Speaker 2: stroke this season. He's having an underrated good season. He

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Speaker 2: hasn't won yet this year, but I think this is

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Speaker 2: a really good opportunity for him to show that he

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Speaker 2: is a really talented He's still a really young golfer,

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Speaker 2: I think twenty four years old Sung JM. I'm starting

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Speaker 2: at sixteen to one pretty confidently because this field is

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Speaker 2: pretty weak, and I hold him a full tier and

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Speaker 2: a half, maybe even two tiers over Sepstraca and Jordan

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Speaker 2: Speeth just on form alone. Those two guys. Sepstraca better form.

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Speaker 2: But he's not the type of golfer that Sung JM

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Speaker 2: is and can be on a golf course this straightforward.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. M has played this event twice before, didn't you

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Speaker 1: especially well finish twenty sixth in twenty nineteen four forty

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Speaker 1: seventh in twenty twenty one. Not a great track record. Butt,

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Speaker 1: as you said, bo I mean, Im has been having

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Speaker 1: a really nice season and he has finished top ten

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Speaker 1: in his last four non majors. We missed the cut

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Speaker 1: in both the PGA and the US Open, but he

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Speaker 1: was third at the Travelers, eighth at the Memorial, ninth

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Speaker 1: the Charles Schwab and fourth at the Wells Fargo. That

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Speaker 1: doesn't even include his win in Korea back in May.

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Speaker 1: And I think he was just out of the top

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Speaker 1: ten at the RBC Heritage. I think that was a twelfth.

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Speaker 1: So IM's been in pretty good form, at least in

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Speaker 1: non majors. You mentioned Straka solid season. Since finishing at

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Speaker 1: the Masters sixteenth, he's had four top tens, including a

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Speaker 1: tie for fifth at the Memorial last month. What about

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Speaker 1: Jordan spiethbow, I mean, he first appearance since winning the

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Speaker 1: John Deere Classic way back in twenty fifteen. He's coming

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Speaker 1: back almost a decade later, but his form is just

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Speaker 1: that's so poor. No top twenty fives for speed since

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Speaker 1: a tie for tenth that the Valero Texas Open in April.

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Speaker 1: His best finished since then twenty ninth at the Wells Fargo.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's he's going to have to use this week

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Speaker 2: to get his game right, especially on approach. Typically we

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Speaker 2: see him spray the ball all over the place on

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Speaker 2: the tee and get away with it, especially grind it

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Speaker 2: out type of tournaments. That's where I like to see

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Speaker 2: Jordan Speith kind of find his way and impose his

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Speaker 2: ability to scramble. This isn't that type of event. I

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Speaker 2: need him to make a ton of birdies, and with

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Speaker 2: the way he's been hitting his irons this season, I

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Speaker 2: don't have any confidence at all in him. The name

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Speaker 2: is the reason why he's so short this week, nothing else.

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Speaker 2: I'd much rather play Aaron Rye, a red hot Aaron

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Speaker 2: Rye at two at plus two thousand. I'd also much

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Speaker 2: rather play JT post And at plus thirty five hundred

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Speaker 2: this week. Those two guys are playing better golf than

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Speaker 2: Jordan Speath, and they're getting more favored. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: stats back it up. Both of the guys are playing

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Speaker 2: outstanding golf this year, especially in events where birdies are necessary.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so Ray is a first timer at the John Deere.

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Speaker 1: If you're a better who doesn't like backing guys making

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Speaker 1: their maiden voyage in a tournament, then maybe you're gonna

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Speaker 1: be off Aaron Rye. But it's coming off the tie

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Speaker 1: for second last week in Detroit and He's finished top

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Speaker 1: twenty and four of his last six starts, So Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rye is in really good form right now. Who did

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Speaker 1: you mention Posten or Denny McCarthy, I mean both great potters.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Denny worries me a little on approach, but his putting,

300
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Speaker 2: of course, is outstanding. He's really good off the tee.

301
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Speaker 2: I put him in kind of that same tier as

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Speaker 2: Davis Thompson, around that same range where yeah, the stats

303
00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,760
Speaker 2: look pretty good. I'm just kind of playing a little

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Speaker 2: bit of favorites with my model here, with Ryan Posten

305
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Speaker 2: being just a little bit above those two. But I'm

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Speaker 2: not mad at anybody who plays McCarthy or Davis Thompson

307
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Speaker 2: at that plus twenty five hundred number or plus twenty

308
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Speaker 2: two hundred McCarthy's case at this moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Danny McCarthy has finished sixth at the John Deere

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Speaker 1: in each of the last two years. Post in you know,

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Speaker 1: the win here in twenty twenty two, finished tied for

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Speaker 1: sixth with McCarthy last year, so you know, and he

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Speaker 1: one of the best putters on the planet. Obviously. Davis Thompson,

314
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Speaker 1: like Aaron Riots, also finished top twenty and four of

315
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Speaker 1: his last six events, including a tie for second last

316
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Speaker 1: week in Detroit and a tie for second at the

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Speaker 1: Myrtle Beach Classic back in May. Thompson does He's only

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Speaker 1: twenty five, and he looks like he's a rising star.

319
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Speaker 2: He very well could be. I don't know if he's

320
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Speaker 2: the kind of golfer that can do it at any

321
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,199
Speaker 2: type of golf course yet, but on golf courses in

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Speaker 2: weaker fields like this, where you have to make birdies,

323
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Speaker 2: he's shown that he can do that. He just did

324
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Speaker 2: it last week where he almost messed around and won

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Speaker 2: that tournament because his Sunday was I think it was

326
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Speaker 2: close to the lower round of the day on Sunday

327
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Speaker 2: last week at the Rocket Mortgage. I think he's a

328
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Speaker 2: good finisher, especially when the pressure is off of him.

329
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Speaker 2: He doesn't have to chase down any big names this week.

330
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Speaker 2: He can just go out and play his game and

331
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Speaker 2: if it's good enough, it's good enough. And that's a

332
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 2: really good number on him.

333
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,399
Speaker 1: Any interest in Maverick McNeely at all eighth here in

334
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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, eighteenth and twenty twenty one.

335
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Speaker 2: Some I really got off the tee really good putter. Obviously,

336
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 2: his approach game worries me a lot too. His wedge

337
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,439
Speaker 2: approach game has been atrocious this year. That's really the

338
00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 2: only thing keeping him off the top tier. He's definitely

339
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 2: gonna be in my DFST pool. For the people who

340
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,119
Speaker 2: are on DraftKings building lineups, He's going to be in

341
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Speaker 2: the hunt. I just don't know if he has enough

342
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 2: to win at this type of golf course where you're

343
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 2: gonna have to stick it close to really get a

344
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:40,040
Speaker 2: lot of birdie chances. That mean something. Putting doesn't matter

345
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Speaker 2: as much here as it did in Detroit, but it

346
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:43,360
Speaker 2: still matters.

347
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Speaker 1: All right. Let's swing over to the mid range options,

348
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Speaker 1: because there's some interesting names here too. Patrick Rodgers is

349
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,400
Speaker 1: plus fifty five hundred, Seamus Power, Mark Hubbard and Ben

350
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 1: Griffin are plus six thousand, Rio Hi Satsuni, Daniel Berger

351
00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,679
Speaker 1: and Doug gimm And, Adam Shank and Jatan vegas Our

352
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 1: plus sixty five hundred, Lee Hodges plus seven thousand, Neil Shipley,

353
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Speaker 1: Michael Thorborn, Thorbjornsen and Andrew Novak ore plus seventy five hundred,

354
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 1: and Jay Knapp and Tor Born Olison are plus eight thousand.

355
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,520
Speaker 1: Do you like any of the mid range options.

356
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 2: A lot of great names, a lot of guys that

357
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to dig a little deeper on, especially

358
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,879
Speaker 2: the younger guys like Neil Shipley, who I wrote about

359
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,919
Speaker 2: last week and did a nice cash out on the

360
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 2: top twenty bet there with Neil Shipley. That was a great,

361
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 2: great feeling to throw the kid out in his first

362
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Speaker 2: week as a pro and cash a top twenty on him,

363
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Speaker 2: So we'll keep riding him. Thorby Jornsen a little bit disappointing,

364
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,919
Speaker 2: missed the cut by one shot. That was he just

365
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:45,680
Speaker 2: couldn't find a putt to go down. I think we

366
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,199
Speaker 2: can wait a little bit on him. I don't know

367
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,479
Speaker 2: that he's I picture him more of his lute vig Oberg.

368
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,680
Speaker 2: We're in a grinded out type difficult tournament where par

369
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,359
Speaker 2: is a good score. I think Thorbyjornson's going to really thrive,

370
00:19:57,800 --> 00:19:59,679
Speaker 2: But in these types of events, I don't know that

371
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 2: he could make a lot of birdies at this stage

372
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:05,000
Speaker 2: of his career, so I'll kind of be on a

373
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 2: holding pattern with him. I'm looking really close at two guys,

374
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 2: Bohstler at fifty to one and our guy Rio. Heisatsuni

375
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 2: sixty five to one for him right now on Monday

376
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 2: afternoon is an insane line. Very top of my model,

377
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 2: number one in every category, especially on birdie making Part

378
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 2: four and part five, scoring his approach distance buckets where

379
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 2: wedge distances have been outstanding, and his putting hasn't been

380
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 2: that bad lately. I think Rio he satsun. He has

381
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 2: plenty of firepower to take this thing down. And at

382
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 2: sixty five to one, that's a screaming value.

383
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 1: At this point, you're talking me into real And you know, Ba,

384
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 1: after the way you pumped up Michael thor Bjornson last week. Yeah,

385
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 1: he did miss the cut in Detroit last week, and

386
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 1: maybe you're right that he would be better to grind

387
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 1: it out sort of place a Billy Horsell type course

388
00:20:55,680 --> 00:21:00,160
Speaker 1: rather than a Birdie fast. But he did finish seventeenthlast

389
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 1: year and his John Deere debut, which is encouraging.

390
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,920
Speaker 2: He's got the talent. I know he's got the talent.

391
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 2: I just don't know that we want to bet on

392
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 2: him to win outright. I'd feel fine with a top

393
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 2: ten or top twenty bet at this point because I

394
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 2: do want to get some skin in the game, because

395
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 2: he's that talented, but as far as an outright bet,

396
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 2: I don't feel great about it, since he's getting a

397
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 2: little bit of market inflation because of the name swirling

398
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 2: that's been going on since he turned pro. I get

399
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 2: the appeal, but I also want to be a smart.

400
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 1: Better fair. Let's see, Adam Shank has had a lot

401
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 1: of success here. He's finished top six in three of

402
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: his last four John Deere appearances, but he has not

403
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 1: finished better than fifty fifth in any of his last

404
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 1: seven events. So if you're looking for a horse for course,

405
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 1: Shank might have some appeal to you, But boy, the

406
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 1: reason for him has been pretty much. I don't think

407
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,120
Speaker 1: either of us are going to have him on our

408
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 1: betting cards. Two other guys in here who are kind

409
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 1: of interesting. Patrick Rodgers thirty first last week in Detroit,

410
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: sixteenth to weeks ago with the Travelers. Not a stellar

411
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 1: track record for him at the John Deer, but he

412
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 1: did finish second here back in twenty seventeen and seamous

413
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: power top twenty five and four of his five John

414
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 1: Deere appearances, including an eighth last year and a thirteenth

415
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. I don't know what do you think,

416
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 1: bou either of those guys generate any interest for you.

417
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 2: Not on the betting market. I just I just don't

418
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 2: feel great about them. So I'm gonna I'm not gonna

419
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,160
Speaker 2: throw money on somebody I don't have utmost confidence, especially

420
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 2: in this type of event where I'm looking to see

421
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 2: some things from some of the golfers who pop up

422
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 2: in my modeling, especially for burden making. Some of those

423
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 2: guys that you mentioned just have struggled to make birdies

424
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 2: this year. It's just it's a fact, and it's a

425
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 2: really important facet of this event, just like it was

426
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 2: last week. So I'm kind of piggybacking off last week's

427
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 2: model to build this week's model because the events are

428
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 2: so similar and the golf courses are not much different.

429
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 1: What about long shots bo anyone with ninety to one

430
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,439
Speaker 1: odds or longer that you find interesting funny?

431
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 2: You should ask Pat. I have quite a few. Oh, okay,

432
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 2: starting at one hundred and ten to one, we have

433
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 2: Hayden Springer, who performed very well last week. He is

434
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: twenty sixth in my model. Fourteenth and total strokes gained

435
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,880
Speaker 2: on easy golf courses and thirteenth and birdier better percentage

436
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 2: he's also eleventh best putter in this field. That stood

437
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: out big time to me. This guy can make birdies

438
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 2: and bunches. As far as bogie avoidance, that's kind of

439
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 2: what killed him last week. I don't think that's as

440
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 2: much of a play here because the weather kind of

441
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 2: affected that on Sunday with him, But starting there at

442
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 2: one ten to one with Hayden Springer is a great move.

443
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 2: And then two guys at one and twenty to one

444
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 2: Chan Kim, who we've known as a birdie making machine

445
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 2: and easy tournaments. He's done it all year long. He

446
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 2: kind of fizzles out in tougher events, but I'm all

447
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 2: over him at one hundred and twenty to one. Same

448
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 2: goes for Ben Coles. We've been talking about him at

449
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 2: all these types of events where he again performed well

450
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 2: last week, and we expect Ben Coles on courses that

451
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 2: expect a lot of wedge play. He's going to be

452
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: fine on those wedge approach distances. He's a really accurate

453
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 2: driver of the golf ball. And then I got one

454
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 2: really deep one. But I want to mention Kelly Kraft.

455
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 2: I'm not sure how much I'm going to put in

456
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 2: on Kelly Craft, but he's showing encouraging signs, especially as

457
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 2: a birdie maker and a really accurate t ball player.

458
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: Seventh in this field and good drives gained. The deep

459
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 2: deep shot is Austin Cook at five hundred to one,

460
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 2: So look up Austin Cooke. Austin Cook came in at

461
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,919
Speaker 2: twentieth in my model, and he's just all around a

462
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 2: good player. He tends to show up gain strokes on

463
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 2: the field seventeenth and total strokes gained for this deep

464
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 2: of a long shot. It really stood out to me

465
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 2: that that guy had such a big number next to

466
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 2: him in the betting card, and he was up there

467
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 2: with some of these big names like McCarthy and Maverick McNeely.

468
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 2: He's right in that same tier for me in how

469
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 2: I ranked the statistically. So for me, that's an edge,

470
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 2: and that's something where you can get really good odds

471
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 2: on a top twenty, a top forty, even if you

472
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 2: make a cut made parlay. That the betting on long

473
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 2: shots that deep is really favorable, especially in a parlay,

474
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,880
Speaker 2: because the books aren't really looking at these guys. There's

475
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 2: not money flowing in on any of these long shots.

476
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,239
Speaker 2: That's why they're long shots, and so as long as

477
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 2: we play it cool and close to the vest, put

478
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 2: a little bit of money on them, they could pay

479
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 2: off really big.

480
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: Austin Cook five hundred to one. Very interesting. I'll throw

481
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: in one more name as a long shot. Bo Pearson Coody,

482
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,919
Speaker 1: who you know, terrible start this season, but he's kind

483
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,719
Speaker 1: of gotten it going a little bit. Finished fifth at

484
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 1: the Charles Schwab Challenge in late May. Big hitter who

485
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 1: also ranks eighteenth and Strokes Great Strokes gained putting this year,

486
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 1: so seems like he might profile pretty well for this

487
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 1: tournament at one and twenty one. I don't hate those odds.

488
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 1: All right, Bo, who do you have on your betting

489
00:25:58,880 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 1: card as of now?

490
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,239
Speaker 2: All right, We're gonna start off with some JM right

491
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 2: at the top sixteen to one. Then I'm gonna throw

492
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,959
Speaker 2: down some Aaron Rye and some JT posting at twenty

493
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 2: and thirty five, and I'm gonna throw in Riohisatsuni at

494
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 2: sixty five to one, and I'm gonna throw a little

495
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 2: bit of dimes on Chan Kim, Ben Coles, Austin Cook,

496
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 2: and I'm still deliberating on how much to put on

497
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 2: some of these other long shots that I mentioned, like

498
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 2: Hayden Springer for example.

499
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: Interesting, I'm scaling back a little bit. I am going

500
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 1: with Sepstrac at plus eighteen hundred. I too, am going

501
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,119
Speaker 1: with JT Posting at plus thirty five hundred. I like

502
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: Michael thorbe Jornson at plus seventy five hundred, and for

503
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: top five at plus Let's see, that's sixteen to one

504
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 1: Pierson Kodie at one hundred and twenty to one in bo,

505
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 1: I think you talked me into a modest wager on

506
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: Rio Hesatsuni. How can I abandon our guy?

507
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 2: Don't do it? Don't do it now before.

508
00:26:58,119 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 1: We get to our one and done picks. If you're

509
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,919
Speaker 1: playing in a one and done golf pool, or if

510
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 1: you're playing in any sort of tears based majors pool.

511
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,800
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512
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,760
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513
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514
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515
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516
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,680
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517
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518
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520
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523
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524
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: Slash Fantasy Pros. Now for the one and done picks,

525
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: Bo last week, Ox Shabatia for you at the Rocket

526
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 1: Mortgage Classic. Good move be finished in that four way

527
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: tie for second. Yes, it could have been better, but

528
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 1: still good for six hundred and sixteen four hundred. I

529
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 1: had Steven Jaeger who missed the cut. Well, I have

530
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 1: missed the cut with five of my picks this year.

531
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: You've only had one, and you could justifiably argue for

532
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: a mulligan in that one since it was the Zurich

533
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 1: Classic that weird too.

534
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 2: If you're gonna give it to me, Pat, I'll take

535
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 2: the mulligan on that one because nobody had any clue

536
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 2: what was going to happen that week.

537
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 1: Yo, So Bo you extend your lead to about three

538
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: point seven million. I'm up first this week. I'm gonna

539
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: go with Straka. How about you, Bo, the big Austrian.

540
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 2: Huh. Well, I'm gonna go with the guy I didn't

541
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 2: like last week and it burned me and I've already

542
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 2: burned Sun JM. I I killed that one before he

543
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 2: was even good this year. Big regret looking back now.

544
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 2: But I think I'm gonna go with Aaron Rye.

545
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 1: Very nice, going with the hot hand, totally get It's

546
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 1: Straca for me, Aaron Rye for Bo, and that's going

547
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 1: to do it for this week's show. Thanks to our sponsor,

548
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549
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550
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551
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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars in bonus cash, and please come

552
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: join Bow and I again next week when the action

553
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 1: moves to the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. We'll

554
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: be previewing the Genesis Scottish Open in North Barrack until then,

555
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 1: So long everyone, Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

556
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

557
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

558
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,440
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559
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: Pros and Instagram at betting Pros NFL.

560
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 2: Also subscribe to our

561
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 1: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros