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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guests, Eva autos CEO and chief

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Speaker 1: investment strategist that e Er shares to take a closer

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Speaker 1: look at the markets. So, Eva, are you expecting us

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Speaker 1: to retest the lows on the SNP five hundred thirty

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Speaker 1: six sixty six and do we test and rebound or

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Speaker 1: do we test and give it up? I think we

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Speaker 1: test and rebound. Um. I think the markets will be choppy. Um,

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Speaker 1: we have they have baked in the seventy five basis

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Speaker 1: points rate high, but still there is a big concern

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Speaker 1: of what future of the future holds. So we'll probably

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Speaker 1: trade within a five to ten percent range in Q

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Speaker 1: three and then in Q four as we get closer

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Speaker 1: to the October thirteen reading and then early November EFON

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Speaker 1: miss meeting, then we might see the markets get back

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Speaker 1: to their highs. In terms of what the FIT does

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Speaker 1: this week, everybody has an opinion. Where are you on

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Speaker 1: on this question? Are you looking at seventy five basis

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Speaker 1: points or do you expect something a bit more outsized

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Speaker 1: than that. We we think the FED will stay the

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Speaker 1: course with the seventy five basis points and it's a

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Speaker 1: foregone conclusion to us. We're now more focused on the

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Speaker 1: November meeting rather than the September and whatever they might

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Speaker 1: hint for the November meeting, that's what might push the market.

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Speaker 1: So I think the tone of the Fed and how

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Speaker 1: hockeysh they'll be I will be critical tomorrow. And I

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Speaker 1: think people are very focused to see if well they'll

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Speaker 1: ease up on the seventy five basis points rate high

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Speaker 1: policy in November and then in December too. So if

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Speaker 1: there is a little bit of a softening in the

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Speaker 1: in the comments made by the chair, do you think

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Speaker 1: the market will seize upon that or do you think

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Speaker 1: the market really needs to see an actual CPI print

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Speaker 1: that is, you know, somewhat lower. I mean, unfortunately the

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Speaker 1: last one didn't didn't really offer that. Which of the

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Speaker 1: two exactly as as you said, I think, especially after

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Speaker 1: the unfortunate last CPI reading, I think people are more

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Speaker 1: focused on the actual data rather than the tone of

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Speaker 1: the Fed. Um so um. I think there's a much

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Speaker 1: greater debate that now in November they might come down

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Speaker 1: for a variety of reasons. Unemployment continues to rise, inflation

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Speaker 1: is likely to come down, and GDP dropped. So if

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Speaker 1: we have a third quarter of GDP dropping, there will

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Speaker 1: be a lot of pressure on the Fed to not

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Speaker 1: overdo it. So that's what we are focused on. And

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Speaker 1: in terms of inflation likely to come down, it's coming

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Speaker 1: down a lot slower than anticipated. What's the risk of

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Speaker 1: some surprises here to the upside we were I don't

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Speaker 1: think we'll have more surprises. But that being said, it's

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Speaker 1: important to note that the cp eyes lagging the true

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Speaker 1: effects of some of the market conditions. For example, when

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Speaker 1: it comes to hising housing Sorry, UM, I think it's

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Speaker 1: likely declining much faster than what the CPI suggests. One

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Speaker 1: third of the CPI is based on shoulder and even

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Speaker 1: though we had headlines for the past months that new

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Speaker 1: housing starts or plummeting, some housing markets are also falling

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Speaker 1: UM the CPS the CPI for housing in August increased

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Speaker 1: by zero point seven percent. Ever, I know you're expecting

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Speaker 1: to see a few downward revisions to earnings over the

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Speaker 1: next few months. Do you think the market is priced

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Speaker 1: in that expectation yet or once those revisions start to

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Speaker 1: roll in, do you see more downside for equities? I

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Speaker 1: see more downside. I think the markets UM will do

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Speaker 1: better on improving inflation news and will drop on future projections.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think we have incorporated everything that has

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Speaker 1: to do with the European crowd isis when it comes

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Speaker 1: to us to the US, because many U S companies

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Speaker 1: have a significant revenue percentage that comes from Europe. So

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Speaker 1: as we incorporate that more and more, I think we'll

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Speaker 1: seem more downward UM estimates for the future earnings projections

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Speaker 1: for the companies in the US, So the earnings will

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Speaker 1: come down and the revisions will be made. Right now,

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Speaker 1: you've got valuations on equal weight stocks in the SMP

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Speaker 1: five hundred round fourteen, whereas the market the SNP is

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Speaker 1: at about eighteen times earnings. So can we expect that

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Speaker 1: maybe the average stock does okay, but the high flyers

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Speaker 1: get trimmed in this next period of a quarter or so. No,

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Speaker 1: In fact, there are some high flyers that are doing

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Speaker 1: well even today. We have Cognis reporting and after hours

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Speaker 1: they are app about seven percent, so and they're in

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Speaker 1: machine learning machine vision. At the same time, you have

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Speaker 1: GM and fourth the on significantly after hours today, So

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Speaker 1: that shows that it's truly a stock pickers market. So

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Speaker 1: UM investors need to look at each company and a

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Speaker 1: company by company basis and see whether this company is

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Speaker 1: significantly affected by the slowdown or minory session that's that's coming.

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Speaker 1: Do you limit your stock picking at the moment to

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Speaker 1: US markets? Are you looking off shore as well? And

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking particularly there's some really beating up names in

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Speaker 1: China at the moment, probably for a good reason. Are

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Speaker 1: you looking there well? Chinese is being hit from a

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Speaker 1: number of internal and external factors. On the one hand,

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Speaker 1: you have external buyers primarily from Europe and North America

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Speaker 1: who are seeing a significant slowdown in their purchasing power,

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Speaker 1: and and then at the same time you also have

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Speaker 1: um the COVID, the zero COVID policy in China, and

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Speaker 1: all other internal ramifications that have to do with their

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Speaker 1: with their real estate crisis. So at the on the

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Speaker 1: on the bright side, though, no country has benefited more

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Speaker 1: than from reselling the Russia and oil other than China

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Speaker 1: due to their their geographic proximity to Russia. So I

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Speaker 1: think there are good news about Joina and bad news.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't make it the ideal place to place money

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Speaker 1: right now. I think you the U s is A

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Speaker 1: is still a safe haven. But that being said, even

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Speaker 1: in the US markets. People need to be conservative for now.

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Speaker 1: So have you you mentioned for and GM struggle today

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Speaker 1: and and that you know stock picking is is really

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Speaker 1: at a premium right now. Can you talk a little

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Speaker 1: bit about what you look at? Is a free cash flow?

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Speaker 1: Is it revenues holding firm? Is it you know, just

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Speaker 1: just generally speaking, better management? How do you how do

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Speaker 1: you separate the wheat from the chaff? Yes, so purchasing

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Speaker 1: power is key if they have an elastic demand. So

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Speaker 1: for example, there are some healthcare companies that have, of

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Speaker 1: course in elastic demand. And then we're really really focused

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Speaker 1: on margins and whether a company is able to cut

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Speaker 1: down their costs or at least keep them in line

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Speaker 1: and expand their margins as they also increase the revenue.

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Speaker 1: So they're out of the fifty six thousand companies that

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Speaker 1: we're tracking globally, there are only a couple of hundred

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Speaker 1: US base that are profitable and able to expand their margins.

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Speaker 1: So it's not easy to find them, but they do exist.

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Speaker 1: I have a very quickly twenty seconds. Are we hitting

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Speaker 1: for a global recession? We are um For Europe we

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Speaker 1: are almost certain, and I think we'll probably have a

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Speaker 1: mild recession in the US two um will We'll see

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Speaker 1: if the third quarter the gd becomes negative again and again,

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Speaker 1: if you have three consecutive GDP quarters that are negative,

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Speaker 1: that's really a bad signal. But again that stands with

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Speaker 1: the NBR to make that determination. Alright, fantastic, Thank you

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Speaker 1: so much at us CEO and chief investment strategist at

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Speaker 1: The Shares