Speaker 1: We are here at the UBS Australasia Conference is Sydney
Speaker 1: on day one and really excited about this conversation. Coming up.
Speaker 1: Joining me now is Michael Rogers, who's a senior advisor
Speaker 1: at Bondi Partners. He's also the former commander of the
Speaker 1: US Harber Command and the National Security Agency Director. And
Speaker 1: as we were just chatting about in the break, nothing
Speaker 1: going on, nothing pertinent to your wealth of experience out
Speaker 1: all the image we jest, but if we get your
Speaker 1: reaction to the election results, and what do you think,
Speaker 1: having worked under both Presidents Obama and President Trump, what
Speaker 1: do you think Trump two point zero is going to
Speaker 1: look like in terms of his approach to security and cybersecurity.
Speaker 2: So clearly President Trump won by a clear majority, not
Speaker 2: a landslibe, but still a clear majority fifty one percent
Speaker 2: or so of the popular vote. I think what the
Speaker 2: election shows, particularly in his mind, is he now has
Speaker 2: a mandate for change. That his election as a result
Speaker 2: of broad dissatisfaction, that universal, but broad dissatisfaction with the
Speaker 2: policy of the Biden administration. And I suspect President Trump's
Speaker 2: view is I now a man need to change and
Speaker 2: I will do that. He'll probably focus, as he's indicated
Speaker 2: so far economic lines. He clearly has a different vision
Speaker 2: trade tariff policy, his view as prices have gotten out
Speaker 2: of control in the US, he wants to change that.
Speaker 2: He clearly articulated concerns about, Hey, we've got to get
Speaker 2: tougher on the border, We've got to control the flow
Speaker 2: of illegal immigration. I suspect that's going to be a priority.
Speaker 2: And then he has also said, Hey, the world more
Speaker 2: broadly outside the United States, it's in a worse situation
Speaker 2: than it was when I left, and I'm going to
Speaker 2: try what I can do to address those issues, whether
Speaker 2: it's Ukraine, China, Israel, and the Middle East. So no
Speaker 2: small amount of challenges at all.
Speaker 1: And he's he's been quite hawkish in terms of indicating
Speaker 1: that would he take a heart line on Iran and
Speaker 1: China for example, And the security risks are so complex.
Speaker 1: In his last term, there were worries about President Trump
Speaker 1: at that point wanting to put in place his supporters
Speaker 1: at the top of the CIA, for example, and other
Speaker 1: intelligence agencies. Do you want worry about the politicization over
Speaker 1: components perhaps for these agents.
Speaker 2: Look, I was one of those individuals. I'm in the
Speaker 2: Mueller report because twice he asked me to do something
Speaker 2: and I told him I wasn't going to do that
Speaker 2: because I didn't think it was appropriate. I told him why,
Speaker 2: and to his credit, he said, Okay, Mike, I understand.
Speaker 2: So my view is if everyone does their job, we're
Speaker 2: going to be fine. We have a series of protections,
Speaker 2: checks and balances in the US system, and trying to
Speaker 2: make fundamental change is not impossible, but it's really difficult.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: Clearly, I think when President Biden or President Trump che's
Speaker 2: we starts this term on the twentieth of January twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five. Number one, H'll have already been the president
Speaker 2: for four years, so he's got a steep learning curve
Speaker 2: behind him. He'd be very focused on I've got experience here.
Speaker 2: I know exactly what I want to do. Secondly, he
Speaker 2: truly believes this in his mind, this idea that parts
Speaker 2: of the government are resisting him, that don't want to
Speaker 2: follow his direction. I always tried to tell him, sir,
Speaker 2: they're all you know, we're all professionals. We take an
Speaker 2: oath to the Constitution, and we serve professionally. Whoever is
Speaker 2: a duly elected leader of the United States. But I
Speaker 2: think he'll be inclined to make sure that his supporters
Speaker 2: are spread across a much greater spectrum of leadership within
Speaker 2: the government, not just at the cabinet level, but below
Speaker 2: that as well. That will be a difference, I think
Speaker 2: from the first time, where he just didn't have the
Speaker 2: time really to do that as much. I think he'll
Speaker 2: start out that'll be important to him this time around.
Speaker 1: What was it like working for him, Because you've spoken
Speaker 1: about in the past this idea of access and that
Speaker 1: being a bit of a risk to President Trump in
Speaker 1: the sense that you know, he wasn't a man for
Speaker 1: consensus or necessarily sort of research. But he liked to
Speaker 1: have these conversations I know, and it often dependent on
Speaker 1: the last person that had access to him.
Speaker 2: So to his credit, he would often say to you, look,
Speaker 2: I'm a business individual, I'm not a politician, so I'm
Speaker 2: not interested in the twenty five years of history on
Speaker 2: this issue. What I want to understand is what's the problem.
Speaker 2: Why are we here today, and what do you want
Speaker 2: from me? What is the recommendation you're making now. Part
Speaker 2: of the challenge with him began He tended to be
Speaker 2: a person who tended a great store by the last
Speaker 2: person he spoke to. So it's interesting to watch the
Speaker 2: people around him try to make sure they were the
Speaker 2: last person that he spoke to. Others have comment on this,
Speaker 2: It's not unique to Mike Rodgers and my impression having
Speaker 2: worked with him for two and a half years. On
Speaker 2: the other hand, I do believe that, you know, there'll
Speaker 2: be a system in place around him that he'll be
Speaker 2: able to hear a broad range of views now which
Speaker 2: he decides he wants to pay the most attention to
Speaker 2: look as in any president, that's going to be up
Speaker 2: to him. So you know, the other thing I think
Speaker 2: we need to remember is number one, he thought being
Speaker 2: unpredictable was a great strength, was an advantage. He actually
Speaker 2: liked being perceived as unpredictable, so we got to remember that.
Speaker 2: And secondly, he's an individual who liked generating a response.
Speaker 2: Many politicians in my experience, I'm not a political individual,
Speaker 2: but having worked with many of the leaders in my government,
Speaker 2: their view is, hey, look, let's not do things that
Speaker 2: say things that are going to spark turbulence. They're going
Speaker 2: to generate a lot of banks. He's very different in
Speaker 2: that regard. His view is, hey, I like generating a response.
Speaker 2: He almost enjoyed it.
Speaker 1: I thought my.
Speaker 2: Perception was, And so I tell people, look, you're gonna
Speaker 2: have to get used to the idea that what he
Speaker 2: says and what he ultimately chooses to do may not
Speaker 2: be the same thing.
Speaker 1: Which would be comforting to some people. Right. Do you
Speaker 1: see the risks to national security as being the same,
Speaker 1: perhaps exacerbated than they were four years ago. You've spoken,
Speaker 1: of course about misinformation and what's happening online. What is
Speaker 1: the biggest sort of risks for you?
Speaker 2: The security environment clearly has gotten worse or tougher on
Speaker 2: a global basis. I mean, we're now dealing with conflict
Speaker 2: in the Middle East in multiple dimensions, both activity directed
Speaker 2: against economic things like shipping in the Red Sea from
Speaker 2: Iran in Israel to directly exchanging attacks against each other,
Speaker 2: as well as the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon,
Speaker 2: none of which to me appear as if going to
Speaker 2: end any time in the immediate like the next few
Speaker 2: weeks or months. So the world's got a lot more contentious,
Speaker 2: a lot more complicated. Technology and information playing in ever
Speaker 2: greater role, and you're watching how more and more nations
Speaker 2: China Russia around are using the power of disinformation, of misinformation,
Speaker 2: deep fakes, the role of technology to make us believe
Speaker 2: that what we are seeing, what we are reading is
Speaker 2: real or accurate, when in fact it's not. It is
Speaker 2: created out of you know, it's not real. It's some
Speaker 2: person's attempt to technically try to convince us it's real
Speaker 2: that The information dynamic, I think is one of our
Speaker 2: biggest challenges, particularly in free democratic societies, where the ability
Speaker 2: to express our opinion is so foundational, and the idea
Speaker 2: that well, the government doesn't censor, we allow people to read, view,
Speaker 2: consider and they will make their choice. That becomes increasingly
Speaker 2: difficult when we've got nation states and individuals, you know,
Speaker 2: trying to use those technologies and those freedoms against us.
Speaker 1: As it worked is deregulation, which is what we're looking
Speaker 1: at with a second Trump administration going to potentially make
Speaker 1: that worse. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I think it varies by the specific situation we're dealing with.
Speaker 2: And I also, before we start making blanking assumptions about
Speaker 2: he's going to do this, he's going to do that,
Speaker 2: let's wait and see. I'm the first of that. I
Speaker 2: don't know what the answer is, but I just caution
Speaker 2: us against making a lot of blanket assumptions this early.
Speaker 1: You're here in Sydney, and I do wonder to kind
Speaker 1: of end this conversation, what do you see the risks
Speaker 1: the challenges are for middle nations like Australia.
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, we all, regardless of size, we
Speaker 2: all live in this hyper connected world. Our economies are
Speaker 2: all intertwined. Our relationships, our friendships. You look at aucust,
Speaker 2: you look at the great history. Are two nations the
Speaker 2: United States and Australia have together.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So the thing I always would say to my Australian
Speaker 2: teammates is, look, you're a great nation with a great history.
Speaker 2: One of the things that makes you great, you're a
Speaker 2: democratic society that is willing to do hard things. I
Speaker 2: just I have great respect for countries like that, you know,
Speaker 2: the selfish image of Americas.
Speaker 1: We're like that.
Speaker 2: We're willing to do hard things. We're willing to do
Speaker 2: the things that we think are right.