WEBVTT - 27: Kentucky Derby Edition: Flip This Horse 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:02.320 But knowledge to work and grow your business with c 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:06.680 i T. From transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C i 0:00:06.760 --> 0:00:10.520 T offers commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for 0:00:10.600 --> 0:00:13.480 small and middle market businesses. Learn more at c i 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:27.440 T dot com put Knowledge to Work. Hello, and welcome 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:31.200 to another edition of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joseph Wisenthal, 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:36.040 Managing editor at Bloomberg Markets. Tracy Alloway, who co hosts 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:39.279 with me, is off traveling the world today. She'll be 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:42.120 back next week, so I am all alone. But I 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:45.720 was really excited about this episode because, as you may 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:48.920 or may not know, it's about to be Kentucky Derby Day. 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:52.960 And I think on when the Kentucky Derby Day rolls along, 0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:56.320 maybe the day of the raise or the day before 0:00:56.360 --> 0:00:59.760 the raise, people suddenly try to cram and learn a 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:02.680 buy about horses. But we're going to get ahead of 0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:05.840 that because today we have David Popadopopoulos, who is a 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:09.600 managing editor here at Bloomberg, and most importantly this week, 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:13.640 he is an expert on all things horses, horse racing, 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:17.880 horse gambling, horse breeding, and we're going to talk to 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:21.880 him about horses obviously and everything you need to know 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.880 to get ready for this weekend's Derby and the business 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:29.600 of betting on horses and breeding horses. And so rather 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:33.520 than just cramming Saturday morning, you're gonna listen to this podcast. 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.080 You're gonna know a lot more than everyone else at 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:45.080 your Kentucky Derby party. Thanks David for joining us, Thank 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:48.240 you Joe. And basically what you just said, in other words, 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:51.200 is that rather than losing your money and having no 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:54.200 idea how you lost it, you're gonna lose it, at 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.920 least you'll have you know, you'll have given it some thought, 0:01:57.080 --> 0:01:59.120 and then go on to lose your money. At least 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.920 you'll learn something and maybe I'll have a little more 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:07.000 enjoyable time watching the race. So I've never won money 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:09.119 on horses. I've placed a lot of bets, not a lot, 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:11.680 but I've been to races, a bet on the Derby, 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:14.040 and I'm terrible at it. So we're gonna fix that 0:02:14.160 --> 0:02:16.760 this week. We're certainly gonna try. I mean, the Derby 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:19.320 is a tough race. If you're just gonna bet once 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:21.040 a year and you bet the Derby, it's a tough race. 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:24.600 There are twenty horses on the track. That's more than 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:27.760 double the size of a typical field and a typical 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:32.320 race very chaotic. Uh, and just obviously just given the 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:34.959 the sheer number of the horses out there, you know, 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:37.800 if you're betting on one or two horses, Uh, it 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:40.600 could be very tough. And you know the way things 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:43.520 tend to unfold in these races, horses that often seem 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:47.520 very logical. Not only may they not win, you could 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:48.800 all of a sudden, you can see, they could come 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:52.040 in dead last. That's a that's a common occurrence with 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:54.040 a race like this. Well, I mean, you know, one 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:55.760 of the things I was just looking at again just 0:02:55.760 --> 0:02:57.640 to to refresh my memory. You know, we had a 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:01.320 period of twenty years. For instance, ninth teen, eight to nine, 0:03:02.760 --> 0:03:05.680 the favorite in the Kentucky Derby did not win a 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:09.480 single one of those races. Um and in some cases 0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:13.480 I'm looking here, they finished twelve six eight. One of 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:18.359 them did not finish eleven. So you know, it's just 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:21.840 a chaotic race that How many horses are normally in 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:24.000 a race you mentioned there twenty and I would say, 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:27.320 you know, typical size varies, but you know anywhere you 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:30.359 could have fields as small as five or six or 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:33.120 you name some cases for a typical typical field be 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:35.760 eight or ten. Twelve would kind of be a lot. 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:41.560 So twenty. There's only one time in America in horse 0:03:41.680 --> 0:03:44.320 racing where there are twenty horses on the track for 0:03:44.360 --> 0:03:46.800 a race, and it's the Kentucky Derby. And the reason 0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:50.520 for that is because every owner, every horse race racehorse 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:54.120 owner in America is dying to say I had a 0:03:54.120 --> 0:03:56.880 horse in the Kentucky Derby. So Churchill Downs really goes 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:59.760 out of its way to try to accommodate and try 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:01.920 to had as many owners bring their horses to the 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:06.160 race as possible. Uh, and you get this stampede of horses. Well. Um, 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:09.720 before we get into talk about this weekend's Derby and 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:13.160 the Derby in general, I want to talk really briefly 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:15.520 about this obsession that I had a few years ago 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:18.839 related to horses. And it wasn't related to horse bedding, 0:04:19.360 --> 0:04:22.200 but it was something called pin hooking which I read 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:24.359 about and then I got obsessed with. And that's this 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:29.279 idea of buying horses at auction and flipping them, selling 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:32.919 them horses as speculations. Uh. I even thought, you know, 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:34.840 there was that show Flipped This House, and I thought 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:36.919 there would be a really great show flipped this horse. 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:40.680 People who went out to these auctions and bought one 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:43.200 year old horses or young horses and then tried to 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:48.159 sell them. Eventually I realized it was it wasn't my world. 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:50.640 I wasn't living in Kentucky. I didn't have any particular 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:53.320 reason to be buying horses at auction. But it really 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:56.480 fascinated me. And while you're here, I wanted to ask 0:04:56.520 --> 0:04:58.760 you about this world of pin hooking, because there are 0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:01.440 different ways to speculate on horses. One is gambling, but 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:04.520 the other way is some people buy and sell horses 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:07.120 like commodities. Yeah, no, pen hooking is. Indeed, it's a 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:10.200 fascinating segment of the market. About a decade ago, I 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:13.440 I once did a feature story on on the market. 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:17.800 What it basically comes down to is guys who will 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:21.560 buy yearlings. Um, it's a one year old. It's a 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:23.840 one year old horse, a yearling, and they will flip 0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:27.200 them as two year olds. Uh. And it's not even 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.000 a full year. Doesn't even transpire from the time they 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:32.360 purchased them in the time that they flipped them. Really 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:37.120 it's about six months. Um. It It's a very volatile market. 0:05:37.200 --> 0:05:39.640 You can have some huge home runs. You know, sometimes 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.520 these guys will buy yearlings for two d thousand and 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:45.040 managed to flip them for one point six million and 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:47.760 have some huge score. But then they'll have any number 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:50.200 of busts along the way, horses that get injured in 0:05:50.200 --> 0:05:52.400 that six month period and never make it to the 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:54.960 track at all. You know. But what they're basically looking 0:05:55.000 --> 0:05:59.039 to do is, um they are looking you know, in 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:02.320 the yearling sale when horses are one year old. Um, 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:04.479 when you go and buy those horses at auction, you 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:07.279 don't actually see them running. You simply see them on 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:12.040 a shank, standing or walking. So you know what a 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:13.880 pin hooker is looking to do. Is he looking to 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:17.960 gauge the horses balance athletic ability. You know, if you're 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.560 going to flip a two year old. You know, a 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:22.440 two year old is a very young horse. It's like 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:26.120 a young teenager. They have to be precocious, they have 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:29.279 to be fast, and they have to be racy. And 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:32.000 at one year old, they've never really raised. They've never 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:35.800 raced before. They've absolutely never raced before, and when they're 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.039 sold as two year olds, they still haven't raced in 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:41.600 proper races. But at that point they are being trained 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.600 on the track, and all the perspective buyers, before they 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:49.000 bid on the horses, we'll watch them run on the racetrack. 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:52.359 So again what they never run when they're one, not 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:55.760 even like a practice, you know. Uh, they're certainly running 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:58.480 in the fields, you know, the breeders fields, not running around, 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:00.880 not on the track. And when you go to these 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:03.400 these auctions, these yearling auctions, all they'll let you do 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:06.000 is they'll let them. They'll they'll let you see them 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:09.320 standing whilst the handlers holding the shank, they let him 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:13.000 see him stand and walk. So are the people who 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:15.960 participate in this, these pinhookers, They have to have been 0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:17.840 around for a long time. I mean, because if you're 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:20.720 going to try to see that a horse has a 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:23.240 swagger at just one year old and they haven't run 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:25.200 at all, you need to be able to just have 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:27.800 some intuition that you can't explain. I mean, the guy 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.640 I spend a lot of time with back then, Buzz 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:34.840 Chase Um, who just had developed a terrific eye over 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:38.800 a sixty year period. Right his entire life was around horses, 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:41.480 and he just developed that eye and he could see 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:44.680 things that other buyers couldn't see, so he would buy 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:48.360 them and being able to project six months out, you 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:51.040 know what that horse would look like. And again, you know, 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:53.560 it's not an exact science. These guys get any of 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:56.040 them wrong or you know, horses get injured. They're very 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:59.440 fragile animals. Um, but the but you know, the model 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:02.600 is Joe, you need to hit a big home run. 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:05.600 You need something to flip something in a really big price, 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:07.239 and that will pay for a lot of the strike. 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:10.440 It reminds me kind of like venture capital investing in 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:13.960 terms of you invest in these seedlings or seed rounds, 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.120 and most of them don't work out, and then every 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:18.000 once in a while you invest in an uber and 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.720 AIRBNBA hopefully and you make up for all the losses. 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:24.320 And at that early stage, the only thing you really 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:28.480 have to go on is intuition and pattern recognitions. And 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:30.440 you know, bringing it back to the Derby, one of 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:32.960 the things that really allowed the pin hooking market to 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:38.000 take off was um Bob Baffort, trainer of of of 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:41.200 American Pharaoh, last year's Triple Crown winner and trainer this 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:43.760 year of More Spirit. He's the guy that in a 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:46.600 lot of ways got the pin hooking market going how well. 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:51.080 He'd picked a horse named silver Charm in he plucked 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:54.200 Silver Charm out of a two year old sale, and 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:56.240 Silver Charm the next year would go on to win 0:08:56.280 --> 0:08:59.920 the Kentucky Derby. So that was the first moment when 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:02.719 buyers said, hey, you know what in these two year 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:05.920 old sales, you can really find talent, talent that's even 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:07.960 cabable of winning the Derby. And so as more and 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:11.280 more buyers went to the two year old sales to buy, 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:14.440 it created a bigger market for pinhookers to sell into. 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:16.600 He has a pin hook and this year and he does, 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:19.360 and and Baffort's got a pin hook. He was not 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:23.040 the pin hooker, he was the buyer. He purchased at 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:25.000 the two year old sale for I believe six hundred 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:28.920 and fifty thousand dollars. Um. Very nice horse. More spirit 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:31.600 is his name, and he's the lone pin hook in 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:36.080 this year's uh and this year's Derby. But um after 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:39.000 Silver Charm one in seven then Monarchos, who was another 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:41.280 pin hook or if he wasn't a pin hook, he 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:42.679 was at the very least he was purchased in a 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:45.040 two year old sale. Those kind of especially those two 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:47.520 back to back really allowed the thing to take off. 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:49.720 And that the interesting about Bafford as a buyer, and 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:52.960 he specifically bought this horse more spirit for these clients. 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:55.760 Baffort's not a big guy about pedigree, Like he's not 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:59.280 gonna spend hours and hours contemplating pedigree. He's another guy 0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:02.080 who's got a G eight dies the horses, the horse. 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:05.520 He's just looking for athletes. Now, of course you want 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:08.480 some pedigree because if you simply buy an athlete that 0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:10.520 goes on to do great things, if the horse has 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:12.720 got no pedigree but did great things on the track, 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:15.120 he's not going to be very attractive as a stallion 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:16.520 or a study. You're not gonna be able to sell 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:18.960 him as a stallion. So even like a horse that 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:21.760 had a great track record, people still want to see. 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:24.839 I guess that it wasn't a fluke in the that's great. 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:29.120 So if a horse like California Chrome, you remember, may 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:31.840 remember from a couple of years ago, almost won the 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:35.320 Triple Crown. He came from essentially a bad family. He 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:37.719 basically could have come from the Popadopolis family. I think 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:40.000 his father was old Yeller. I don't remember who his 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:42.920 mother was but so even though he won the Derby, 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.960 he won the Preakness, he won all these races, breeders 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:49.600 weren't knocking down his door to have him come in and, 0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:52.120 you know, and and make him a big stallion offer 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:55.160 and pay them countless millions. The reason why Joe's yes, 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:58.680 breeders will assume that in a case like that, he's 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:01.200 just a freak athlete and a bad family. All right, 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:04.400 let's let's we're gonna turn our attention to the Kentucky Derby. 0:11:04.480 --> 0:11:07.200 But first let's take a quick break for our sponsor. 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:15.480 But knowledge to work and grow your business with c 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:19.840 I T from transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C i 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:23.680 T offers commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.640 small and middle market businesses. Learn more at c i 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:32.760 T dot com. Put knowledge to work. All right, David, 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:35.520 let's talk about the Derby, But let's talk about Let's 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:38.839 say someone doesn't do anything about horse bedding. As I 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:41.160 said in the intro, maybe they pay attention to horses 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.559 one day a year. How do you start to look 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:47.880 for a good bet to a good horse to bet on, 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.720 or a good wager? What's the framework? Well, you take 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:52.439 to take a half step back, I would say the 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:55.640 first thing that you know, most gamblers do, and even 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:57.839 people who don't have a great sense that they should 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:00.800 really be looking for value, not simply thing to identify 0:12:00.880 --> 0:12:03.079 the horse with the best chance to win, but looking 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.160 for value. I think they'll typically look out a handful 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:09.319 of things. Obviously simply whether this horse is winning or 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:12.520 losing recently in his most recent races, what kind of 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:16.360 speed figures the horses producing. Nobody looks pretty much at 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:21.760 raw times. Um most obviously tracks are dirt surfaces. They're 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:25.640 very affected day to day, hour to hour by rain, 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:28.560 wind and everything, so you can't look at raw times. 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:30.560 There are any number of groups. That's why we don't 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:33.320 hear about like the equivalent of the hundred meter world record, 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:38.400 because that's correct. It is true. That's Secretariat arguably the 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:41.720 greatest throb in America of all time to this day, 0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:44.760 has the record in the Kentucky Derby, and the record 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:47.280 in the Preakness, and the record in the Belmont. All 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.839 those things are true raw times. But generally speaking, you know, 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:54.600 raw times are are kind of skews to speed figures. 0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:57.000 They're they're a handful of them. They're Andy buyer an 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.640 old Harvard guy's got the buyer speed figures, And then 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:02.319 there's the is the ragazine sheets and there, and there's 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.880 the brig net and there those well, those are basically 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:08.400 they take the raw times, but then they figure out 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:12.000 how they have their own formulas for how fast or 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.319 slow the track is playing on that particular day in 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:19.000 the which it's it's conceivable that on Tuesday, if a 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.280 horse does a mile, runs a mile in an eighth 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:24.560 in a minute forty seven, and then three days later 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:26.800 another horse does that same mile in an eight and 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.840 in a minute fifty, it's conceivable that the mile the 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.760 minute fifty is actually a better figure, is a faster 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.240 time than a minute forty seven, depending how the tracks playing. 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.280 So they'll they'll take all those things into consideration. And 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:40.280 as a amateur gambler, when I want to see a 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.520 horse's speed figure, what where do I look? And what 0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:47.079 is a good number? Is it lower numbers, higher numbers? What? Right? 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:50.240 So everyone's got their own system. The most the most 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:54.600 common sort of the the gold standard, I guess in 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:58.400 the industry are the buyer speed figures, which you'd find 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.480 in the daily Racing form. And they're big, bold type 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:03.880 that basically the only number in the racing formats in 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:07.640 bold type. The higher the better, Uh, you're looking in 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:11.920 the Derby, typically people want scale. There's no you know, 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.160 there's no set scale. But you know, I think for instance, 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.920 they went and they did, uh they back off top seed. 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:21.680 For instance, Secretariat's Belmont and I think he got a 0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:24.200 hundred and thirty eight. I think the hundred thirty eight 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:27.200 is basically the highest you'll ever see. You know, maidens 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:29.920 horses that have never run in their lives before, you know, 0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:32.680 made you get figures as low as thirty or forty. 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:36.200 You know. You know, typically Derby winners, before they run 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:38.360 in the Derby will have done something in the hundred 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:42.320 range hundred plus um. So, So anyway, so your typical gambler, 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:45.160 he looks at win loss record, he looks at speed figures. 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.360 He probably looks at the competition the horse has been 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:50.880 facing recently to give him a sense, all right, has 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.560 he been racing against really good horses or weaker horses? 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:56.920 And then we'll just you know, most handicappers will will 0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:00.200 put most emphasis on the horses most recent race is 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:03.400 you know, um recency matters much more than whether a 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:05.840 horse was doing great things two years ago. And that's 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:08.680 the way, you know, generally speaking, your average gambler would approach. 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:13.000 And those are all important initial steps, you know. I think, though, 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:15.440 if you're really trying to find value, and I was 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:17.640 just gonna say, if these buyer speed figures are in 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:21.440 Bright's correct, you're not getting any edge by looking That's correct, Joe, 0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:23.840 to the point, to the extent that you know, honestly, 0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:25.920 in my mind, when I really made up my mind 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.200 that I just like a horse visually, because I will 0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:30.440 break these horses down on film, and I will watch 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:33.480 them race after races, and I will watch I may 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.080 watch certain portions of the race multiple times when I've 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:38.160 decided I really like a horse. I like the way 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:41.600 he travels, I like the way he he takes the 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:45.840 jockey forward. When that race is over, I'm actually hoping 0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:48.600 he gets a low buyer figure, because a big buyer 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.280 number is gonna gonna attract a lot of attention. It's 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:53.320 gonna attract a lot of money. But if he gets 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:56.320 a weaker figure, that's going to sort of scare people off, 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.680 scare other gamblers off. I may still believe in the horse. 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:02.560 Think it's the point where you say, you're watching horses 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:04.640 on film that most people should realize they don't stand 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.080 a chance. I mean, like, like there are people out 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.760 there watching film of these horses. That means that the 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:14.880 one day year gambler really really doesn't they don't have 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:16.920 a print. All right, let's take it a bit further, 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:22.440 so everyone sees those same buyer speed rating. You go 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.080 as far, and I imagine others watch film to like 0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:29.000 really size up the horses. You said, Um, you had 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:31.960 an epiphany at some point in your career to take 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:35.080 your bedding to the next level. Um, what what was 0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:37.280 that epiphany? I did, Joe. It was probably about a 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:40.480 decade ago, and I was I was kind of playing 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:43.400 hockey from work. I think I think I properly took 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:44.920 it as a vacation day. I'll have to go back 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:48.280 and check it. And I went to at the time. Okay, 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.760 so it's all on the database. It's all on the database. 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:52.680 We can go back and check it. Uh. And I 0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:55.040 went up to Saratoga with my father and a buddy 0:16:55.040 --> 0:16:58.200 of his, and I was kind of trying to handicap 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:01.320 on the fly like most people, and and doing the 0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:03.760 things that I I had walked you through earlier looking 0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:06.920 at you know, when wins loss is looking at speed figures. 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:09.600 And I was trying to do this for race after race, 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:12.600 ten races on the day and throughout the day. If 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.400 I zagged, they zagged. I just had it wrong all day. 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:17.639 I went over ten on the day and I and 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:20.560 I dropped every penny I bet. I remember walking out 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:22.439 of there and my father's buddy was giving me a 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:24.640 hard time. He was kind of just kind of laughing 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:26.720 at me whatever. I remember just walking out of there saying, 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:29.680 you know, this thing about trying to chase each and 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:32.800 every race and trying to handicap on the fly, this 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.919 is for the birds. There's no way, no how, you 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:38.560 can truly find any kind of value doing this. I 0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:41.639 need to take a much more patient approach. I'm really 0:17:41.680 --> 0:17:44.560 pick my spots, and when I'm gonna bet, really make 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:48.280 sure that I believe I'm I have an information advantage 0:17:48.280 --> 0:17:50.399 over everybody else. So now when I go to the 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:53.639 track on a given day there are ten twelve races, 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:56.719 I may bet one, two, three, zero, depending on what 0:17:56.760 --> 0:17:59.520 I see. And so, you know, it takes a lot 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.439 of discipline. People want to I mean, even if you 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:05.360 establish that Okay, you really want to pick your spots, 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.600 figure out where you have an edge people, It's hard 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:10.919 to do that when there's races. It's it's it's it's 0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:13.280 human nature, and especially when you get down. Also, let's 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:15.560 say I only plan on betting race six on a 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:19.560 given day, and I bet whatever, fifty dollars, whatever it is, 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:23.000 and and I lose it instinct, this is sort of 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:25.080 immediately start looking through the racing forma. Sorry, how am 0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:26.960 I going to bring that back in the seventh race? So, 0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:30.000 as a disciplined gambler, I try to just walk away 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:31.800 and not do that because at that point then you're 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:37.080 sort of chasing. You're chasing, Uh, You're you're throwing. You're exactly, 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:39.480 you're throwing good money after bad. But so the kind 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:41.560 of ways you can find value in my case, I 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:44.960 watch a lot of film. Um, you know, film can 0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:46.639 tell you question, where do you get There is that 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:50.320 online everywhere? There are multiple places you can get that online, um, 0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:53.119 and and they're great. You can get multiple shots. You 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:55.960 can get the pan shot that everyone's traditionally used to seeing. 0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:57.560 You can get the head on shot, which is great, 0:18:57.600 --> 0:18:59.560 which gives you a lot of you know, a lot 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:04.360 of different uh insight. UM, So you can do film work, uh, 0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.520 you know, to gain value. You can, um, you can 0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:12.400 subscribe to Cocker Reports, guys who are watching these horses 0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:15.080 train each and every morning and they can watch their 0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:18.240 evolution and report to you on their evolution. And it's 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:20.879 kind of thing. Yes, it's it's accessible to other people, 0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.679 but folks tend not to spend the money for it. 0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:27.080 And it can be very insightful because these are, after all, 0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:30.400 agricultural products, right, their horses, right, they go good and bad, 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:32.680 and so it's very important to know how they're doing 0:19:32.760 --> 0:19:35.800 day to day, week to week. Um. You know they 0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:38.800 are also um, if you were to go to the 0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:41.560 paddock before the race. I mean I'm a big believer 0:19:41.840 --> 0:19:43.880 and being in the paddock before the race and watching 0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:46.919 those horses, and over the course of years and years 0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:50.600 I've learned and read about you know, you know what 0:19:50.680 --> 0:19:53.680 when a horse is giving signs that the horses physically 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:56.200 really ready to roll, and when he's not so ready 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:58.520 to roll, And that's just kind of going back to 0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:02.400 the pinhooking something. You just learned to watch the patterns 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:04.440 over the years, and there's no shortcut on that. Yeah, 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:06.520 you you do. And also I mean, in my case, 0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:08.639 you know, initially started I probably picked up a handful 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:11.000 of books on the subject written by horsemen, not not 0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:14.280 by uh not by journalists like myself. But yeah, I 0:20:14.320 --> 0:20:17.320 mean there are certain telltale signs that become pretty obvious 0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:20.560 to you. Like you know, if you ever see in paintings, 0:20:20.560 --> 0:20:22.920 classical paintings, you know, a horse and a painting, you know, 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:26.400 they always get that really bowed arched neck. And if 0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:29.000 you ever see a horse it's really bowing its neck 0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:31.040