1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,320 Speaker 1: But knowledge to work and grow your business with c 2 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 1: i T. From transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C i 3 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: T offers commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for 4 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: small and middle market businesses. Learn more at c i 5 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: T dot com put Knowledge to Work. Hello, and welcome 6 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: to another edition of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joseph Wisenthal, 7 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: Managing editor at Bloomberg Markets. Tracy Alloway, who co hosts 8 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,279 Speaker 1: with me, is off traveling the world today. She'll be 9 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: back next week, so I am all alone. But I 10 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: was really excited about this episode because, as you may 11 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 1: or may not know, it's about to be Kentucky Derby Day. 12 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: And I think on when the Kentucky Derby Day rolls along, 13 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 1: maybe the day of the raise or the day before 14 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: the raise, people suddenly try to cram and learn a 15 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: buy about horses. But we're going to get ahead of 16 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: that because today we have David Popadopopoulos, who is a 17 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: managing editor here at Bloomberg, and most importantly this week, 18 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: he is an expert on all things horses, horse racing, 19 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: horse gambling, horse breeding, and we're going to talk to 20 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: him about horses obviously and everything you need to know 21 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 1: to get ready for this weekend's Derby and the business 22 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 1: of betting on horses and breeding horses. And so rather 23 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: than just cramming Saturday morning, you're gonna listen to this podcast. 24 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: You're gonna know a lot more than everyone else at 25 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: your Kentucky Derby party. Thanks David for joining us, Thank 26 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: you Joe. And basically what you just said, in other words, 27 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: is that rather than losing your money and having no 28 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: idea how you lost it, you're gonna lose it, at 29 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: least you'll have you know, you'll have given it some thought, 30 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: and then go on to lose your money. At least 31 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: you'll learn something and maybe I'll have a little more 32 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: enjoyable time watching the race. So I've never won money 33 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,119 Speaker 1: on horses. I've placed a lot of bets, not a lot, 34 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: but I've been to races, a bet on the Derby, 35 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: and I'm terrible at it. So we're gonna fix that 36 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: this week. We're certainly gonna try. I mean, the Derby 37 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: is a tough race. If you're just gonna bet once 38 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: a year and you bet the Derby, it's a tough race. 39 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: There are twenty horses on the track. That's more than 40 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: double the size of a typical field and a typical 41 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: race very chaotic. Uh, and just obviously just given the 42 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,959 Speaker 1: the sheer number of the horses out there, you know, 43 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 1: if you're betting on one or two horses, Uh, it 44 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: could be very tough. And you know the way things 45 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: tend to unfold in these races, horses that often seem 46 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: very logical. Not only may they not win, you could 47 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you can see, they could come 48 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: in dead last. That's a that's a common occurrence with 49 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: a race like this. Well, I mean, you know, one 50 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: of the things I was just looking at again just 51 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: to to refresh my memory. You know, we had a 52 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: period of twenty years. For instance, ninth teen, eight to nine, 53 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 1: the favorite in the Kentucky Derby did not win a 54 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: single one of those races. Um and in some cases 55 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: I'm looking here, they finished twelve six eight. One of 56 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: them did not finish eleven. So you know, it's just 57 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 1: a chaotic race that How many horses are normally in 58 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: a race you mentioned there twenty and I would say, 59 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: you know, typical size varies, but you know anywhere you 60 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 1: could have fields as small as five or six or 61 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: you name some cases for a typical typical field be 62 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: eight or ten. Twelve would kind of be a lot. 63 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: So twenty. There's only one time in America in horse 64 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 1: racing where there are twenty horses on the track for 65 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: a race, and it's the Kentucky Derby. And the reason 66 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 1: for that is because every owner, every horse race racehorse 67 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: owner in America is dying to say I had a 68 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: horse in the Kentucky Derby. So Churchill Downs really goes 69 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: out of its way to try to accommodate and try 70 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: to had as many owners bring their horses to the 71 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: race as possible. Uh, and you get this stampede of horses. Well. Um, 72 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: before we get into talk about this weekend's Derby and 73 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: the Derby in general, I want to talk really briefly 74 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: about this obsession that I had a few years ago 75 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,839 Speaker 1: related to horses. And it wasn't related to horse bedding, 76 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: but it was something called pin hooking which I read 77 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 1: about and then I got obsessed with. And that's this 78 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 1: idea of buying horses at auction and flipping them, selling 79 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:32,919 Speaker 1: them horses as speculations. Uh. I even thought, you know, 80 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 1: there was that show Flipped This House, and I thought 81 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 1: there would be a really great show flipped this horse. 82 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: People who went out to these auctions and bought one 83 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: year old horses or young horses and then tried to 84 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:48,159 Speaker 1: sell them. Eventually I realized it was it wasn't my world. 85 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: I wasn't living in Kentucky. I didn't have any particular 86 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 1: reason to be buying horses at auction. But it really 87 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 1: fascinated me. And while you're here, I wanted to ask 88 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: you about this world of pin hooking, because there are 89 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: different ways to speculate on horses. One is gambling, but 90 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: the other way is some people buy and sell horses 91 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: like commodities. Yeah, no, pen hooking is. Indeed, it's a 92 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: fascinating segment of the market. About a decade ago, I 93 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 1: I once did a feature story on on the market. 94 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: What it basically comes down to is guys who will 95 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: buy yearlings. Um, it's a one year old. It's a 96 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,840 Speaker 1: one year old horse, a yearling, and they will flip 97 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: them as two year olds. Uh. And it's not even 98 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: a full year. Doesn't even transpire from the time they 99 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: purchased them in the time that they flipped them. Really 100 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: it's about six months. Um. It It's a very volatile market. 101 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: You can have some huge home runs. You know, sometimes 102 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: these guys will buy yearlings for two d thousand and 103 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: managed to flip them for one point six million and 104 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: have some huge score. But then they'll have any number 105 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: of busts along the way, horses that get injured in 106 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: that six month period and never make it to the 107 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: track at all. You know. But what they're basically looking 108 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: to do is, um they are looking you know, in 109 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: the yearling sale when horses are one year old. Um, 110 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 1: when you go and buy those horses at auction, you 111 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 1: don't actually see them running. You simply see them on 112 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 1: a shank, standing or walking. So you know what a 113 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: pin hooker is looking to do. Is he looking to 114 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: gauge the horses balance athletic ability. You know, if you're 115 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: going to flip a two year old. You know, a 116 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: two year old is a very young horse. It's like 117 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 1: a young teenager. They have to be precocious, they have 118 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,279 Speaker 1: to be fast, and they have to be racy. And 119 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: at one year old, they've never really raised. They've never 120 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: raced before. They've absolutely never raced before, and when they're 121 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 1: sold as two year olds, they still haven't raced in 122 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,600 Speaker 1: proper races. But at that point they are being trained 123 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 1: on the track, and all the perspective buyers, before they 124 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: bid on the horses, we'll watch them run on the racetrack. 125 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,359 Speaker 1: So again what they never run when they're one, not 126 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: even like a practice, you know. Uh, they're certainly running 127 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: in the fields, you know, the breeders fields, not running around, 128 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: not on the track. And when you go to these 129 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: these auctions, these yearling auctions, all they'll let you do 130 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: is they'll let them. They'll they'll let you see them 131 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: standing whilst the handlers holding the shank, they let him 132 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: see him stand and walk. So are the people who 133 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: participate in this, these pinhookers, They have to have been 134 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: around for a long time. I mean, because if you're 135 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: going to try to see that a horse has a 136 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 1: swagger at just one year old and they haven't run 137 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: at all, you need to be able to just have 138 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: some intuition that you can't explain. I mean, the guy 139 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: I spend a lot of time with back then, Buzz 140 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: Chase Um, who just had developed a terrific eye over 141 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: a sixty year period. Right his entire life was around horses, 142 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: and he just developed that eye and he could see 143 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: things that other buyers couldn't see, so he would buy 144 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: them and being able to project six months out, you 145 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: know what that horse would look like. And again, you know, 146 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: it's not an exact science. These guys get any of 147 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: them wrong or you know, horses get injured. They're very 148 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 1: fragile animals. Um, but the but you know, the model 149 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: is Joe, you need to hit a big home run. 150 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 1: You need something to flip something in a really big price, 151 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:07,239 Speaker 1: and that will pay for a lot of the strike. 152 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: It reminds me kind of like venture capital investing in 153 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: terms of you invest in these seedlings or seed rounds, 154 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: and most of them don't work out, and then every 155 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: once in a while you invest in an uber and 156 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: AIRBNBA hopefully and you make up for all the losses. 157 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: And at that early stage, the only thing you really 158 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: have to go on is intuition and pattern recognitions. And 159 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: you know, bringing it back to the Derby, one of 160 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: the things that really allowed the pin hooking market to 161 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: take off was um Bob Baffort, trainer of of of 162 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: American Pharaoh, last year's Triple Crown winner and trainer this 163 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: year of More Spirit. He's the guy that in a 164 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: lot of ways got the pin hooking market going how well. 165 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 1: He'd picked a horse named silver Charm in he plucked 166 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 1: Silver Charm out of a two year old sale, and 167 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 1: Silver Charm the next year would go on to win 168 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby. So that was the first moment when 169 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:02,719 Speaker 1: buyers said, hey, you know what in these two year 170 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: old sales, you can really find talent, talent that's even 171 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: cabable of winning the Derby. And so as more and 172 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: more buyers went to the two year old sales to buy, 173 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 1: it created a bigger market for pinhookers to sell into. 174 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: He has a pin hook and this year and he does, 175 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 1: and and Baffort's got a pin hook. He was not 176 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 1: the pin hooker, he was the buyer. He purchased at 177 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: the two year old sale for I believe six hundred 178 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: and fifty thousand dollars. Um. Very nice horse. More spirit 179 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: is his name, and he's the lone pin hook in 180 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 1: this year's uh and this year's Derby. But um after 181 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: Silver Charm one in seven then Monarchos, who was another 182 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: pin hook or if he wasn't a pin hook, he 183 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:42,679 Speaker 1: was at the very least he was purchased in a 184 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 1: two year old sale. Those kind of especially those two 185 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: back to back really allowed the thing to take off. 186 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 1: And that the interesting about Bafford as a buyer, and 187 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: he specifically bought this horse more spirit for these clients. 188 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 1: Baffort's not a big guy about pedigree, Like he's not 189 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: gonna spend hours and hours contemplating pedigree. He's another guy 190 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: who's got a G eight dies the horses, the horse. 191 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: He's just looking for athletes. Now, of course you want 192 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: some pedigree because if you simply buy an athlete that 193 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: goes on to do great things, if the horse has 194 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: got no pedigree but did great things on the track, 195 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: he's not going to be very attractive as a stallion 196 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: or a study. You're not gonna be able to sell 197 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 1: him as a stallion. So even like a horse that 198 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: had a great track record, people still want to see. 199 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,839 Speaker 1: I guess that it wasn't a fluke in the that's great. 200 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: So if a horse like California Chrome, you remember, may 201 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 1: remember from a couple of years ago, almost won the 202 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 1: Triple Crown. He came from essentially a bad family. He 203 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:37,719 Speaker 1: basically could have come from the Popadopolis family. I think 204 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: his father was old Yeller. I don't remember who his 205 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: mother was but so even though he won the Derby, 206 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: he won the Preakness, he won all these races, breeders 207 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: weren't knocking down his door to have him come in and, 208 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: you know, and and make him a big stallion offer 209 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: and pay them countless millions. The reason why Joe's yes, 210 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:58,680 Speaker 1: breeders will assume that in a case like that, he's 211 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 1: just a freak athlete and a bad family. All right, 212 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: let's let's we're gonna turn our attention to the Kentucky Derby. 213 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: But first let's take a quick break for our sponsor. 214 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: But knowledge to work and grow your business with c 215 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 1: I T from transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C i 216 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:23,680 Speaker 1: T offers commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for 217 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: small and middle market businesses. Learn more at c i 218 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: T dot com. Put knowledge to work. All right, David, 219 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: let's talk about the Derby, But let's talk about Let's 220 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,839 Speaker 1: say someone doesn't do anything about horse bedding. As I 221 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: said in the intro, maybe they pay attention to horses 222 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,559 Speaker 1: one day a year. How do you start to look 223 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 1: for a good bet to a good horse to bet on, 224 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: or a good wager? What's the framework? Well, you take 225 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:52,439 Speaker 1: to take a half step back, I would say the 226 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: first thing that you know, most gamblers do, and even 227 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:57,839 Speaker 1: people who don't have a great sense that they should 228 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 1: really be looking for value, not simply thing to identify 229 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,079 Speaker 1: the horse with the best chance to win, but looking 230 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: for value. I think they'll typically look out a handful 231 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,319 Speaker 1: of things. Obviously simply whether this horse is winning or 232 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: losing recently in his most recent races, what kind of 233 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: speed figures the horses producing. Nobody looks pretty much at 234 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 1: raw times. Um most obviously tracks are dirt surfaces. They're 235 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 1: very affected day to day, hour to hour by rain, 236 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: wind and everything, so you can't look at raw times. 237 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 1: There are any number of groups. That's why we don't 238 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 1: hear about like the equivalent of the hundred meter world record, 239 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: because that's correct. It is true. That's Secretariat arguably the 240 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 1: greatest throb in America of all time to this day, 241 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 1: has the record in the Kentucky Derby, and the record 242 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 1: in the Preakness, and the record in the Belmont. All 243 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 1: those things are true raw times. But generally speaking, you know, 244 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: raw times are are kind of skews to speed figures. 245 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: They're they're a handful of them. They're Andy buyer an 246 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: old Harvard guy's got the buyer speed figures, And then 247 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:02,319 Speaker 1: there's the is the ragazine sheets and there, and there's 248 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: the brig net and there those well, those are basically 249 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: they take the raw times, but then they figure out 250 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: how they have their own formulas for how fast or 251 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,319 Speaker 1: slow the track is playing on that particular day in 252 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 1: the which it's it's conceivable that on Tuesday, if a 253 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: horse does a mile, runs a mile in an eighth 254 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: in a minute forty seven, and then three days later 255 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: another horse does that same mile in an eight and 256 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 1: in a minute fifty, it's conceivable that the mile the 257 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 1: minute fifty is actually a better figure, is a faster 258 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: time than a minute forty seven, depending how the tracks playing. 259 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: So they'll they'll take all those things into consideration. And 260 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: as a amateur gambler, when I want to see a 261 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: horse's speed figure, what where do I look? And what 262 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:47,079 Speaker 1: is a good number? Is it lower numbers, higher numbers? What? Right? 263 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: So everyone's got their own system. The most the most 264 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 1: common sort of the the gold standard, I guess in 265 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: the industry are the buyer speed figures, which you'd find 266 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 1: in the daily Racing form. And they're big, bold type 267 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: that basically the only number in the racing formats in 268 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: bold type. The higher the better, Uh, you're looking in 269 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 1: the Derby, typically people want scale. There's no you know, 270 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: there's no set scale. But you know, I think for instance, 271 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: they went and they did, uh they back off top seed. 272 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: For instance, Secretariat's Belmont and I think he got a 273 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty eight. I think the hundred thirty eight 274 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: is basically the highest you'll ever see. You know, maidens 275 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 1: horses that have never run in their lives before, you know, 276 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: made you get figures as low as thirty or forty. 277 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: You know. You know, typically Derby winners, before they run 278 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 1: in the Derby will have done something in the hundred 279 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: range hundred plus um. So, So anyway, so your typical gambler, 280 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: he looks at win loss record, he looks at speed figures. 281 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 1: He probably looks at the competition the horse has been 282 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 1: facing recently to give him a sense, all right, has 283 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: he been racing against really good horses or weaker horses? 284 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: And then we'll just you know, most handicappers will will 285 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 1: put most emphasis on the horses most recent race is 286 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: you know, um recency matters much more than whether a 287 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: horse was doing great things two years ago. And that's 288 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: the way, you know, generally speaking, your average gambler would approach. 289 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: And those are all important initial steps, you know. I think, though, 290 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: if you're really trying to find value, and I was 291 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: just gonna say, if these buyer speed figures are in 292 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 1: Bright's correct, you're not getting any edge by looking That's correct, Joe, 293 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: to the point, to the extent that you know, honestly, 294 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 1: in my mind, when I really made up my mind 295 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: that I just like a horse visually, because I will 296 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 1: break these horses down on film, and I will watch 297 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 1: them race after races, and I will watch I may 298 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: watch certain portions of the race multiple times when I've 299 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: decided I really like a horse. I like the way 300 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: he travels, I like the way he he takes the 301 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: jockey forward. When that race is over, I'm actually hoping 302 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 1: he gets a low buyer figure, because a big buyer 303 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 1: number is gonna gonna attract a lot of attention. It's 304 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: gonna attract a lot of money. But if he gets 305 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: a weaker figure, that's going to sort of scare people off, 306 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: scare other gamblers off. I may still believe in the horse. 307 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: Think it's the point where you say, you're watching horses 308 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: on film that most people should realize they don't stand 309 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: a chance. I mean, like, like there are people out 310 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: there watching film of these horses. That means that the 311 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: one day year gambler really really doesn't they don't have 312 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: a print. All right, let's take it a bit further, 313 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: so everyone sees those same buyer speed rating. You go 314 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: as far, and I imagine others watch film to like 315 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 1: really size up the horses. You said, Um, you had 316 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: an epiphany at some point in your career to take 317 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: your bedding to the next level. Um, what what was 318 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 1: that epiphany? I did, Joe. It was probably about a 319 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 1: decade ago, and I was I was kind of playing 320 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: hockey from work. I think I think I properly took 321 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: it as a vacation day. I'll have to go back 322 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: and check it. And I went to at the time. Okay, 323 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: so it's all on the database. It's all on the database. 324 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 1: We can go back and check it. Uh. And I 325 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: went up to Saratoga with my father and a buddy 326 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: of his, and I was kind of trying to handicap 327 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 1: on the fly like most people, and and doing the 328 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:03,760 Speaker 1: things that I I had walked you through earlier looking 329 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 1: at you know, when wins loss is looking at speed figures. 330 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: And I was trying to do this for race after race, 331 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: ten races on the day and throughout the day. If 332 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 1: I zagged, they zagged. I just had it wrong all day. 333 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 1: I went over ten on the day and I and 334 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 1: I dropped every penny I bet. I remember walking out 335 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:22,439 Speaker 1: of there and my father's buddy was giving me a 336 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:24,640 Speaker 1: hard time. He was kind of just kind of laughing 337 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: at me whatever. I remember just walking out of there saying, 338 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: you know, this thing about trying to chase each and 339 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: every race and trying to handicap on the fly, this 340 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,919 Speaker 1: is for the birds. There's no way, no how, you 341 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: can truly find any kind of value doing this. I 342 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,639 Speaker 1: need to take a much more patient approach. I'm really 343 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: pick my spots, and when I'm gonna bet, really make 344 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 1: sure that I believe I'm I have an information advantage 345 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 1: over everybody else. So now when I go to the 346 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 1: track on a given day there are ten twelve races, 347 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,719 Speaker 1: I may bet one, two, three, zero, depending on what 348 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: I see. And so, you know, it takes a lot 349 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,439 Speaker 1: of discipline. People want to I mean, even if you 350 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,360 Speaker 1: establish that Okay, you really want to pick your spots, 351 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 1: figure out where you have an edge people, It's hard 352 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 1: to do that when there's races. It's it's it's it's 353 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: human nature, and especially when you get down. Also, let's 354 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: say I only plan on betting race six on a 355 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: given day, and I bet whatever, fifty dollars, whatever it is, 356 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: and and I lose it instinct, this is sort of 357 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 1: immediately start looking through the racing forma. Sorry, how am 358 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 1: I going to bring that back in the seventh race? So, 359 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: as a disciplined gambler, I try to just walk away 360 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: and not do that because at that point then you're 361 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 1: sort of chasing. You're chasing, Uh, You're you're throwing. You're exactly, 362 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: you're throwing good money after bad. But so the kind 363 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: of ways you can find value in my case, I 364 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 1: watch a lot of film. Um, you know, film can 365 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 1: tell you question, where do you get There is that 366 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 1: online everywhere? There are multiple places you can get that online, um, 367 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 1: and and they're great. You can get multiple shots. You 368 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 1: can get the pan shot that everyone's traditionally used to seeing. 369 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: You can get the head on shot, which is great, 370 00:18:57,600 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: which gives you a lot of you know, a lot 371 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:04,360 Speaker 1: of different uh insight. UM, So you can do film work, uh, 372 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 1: you know, to gain value. You can, um, you can 373 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:12,400 Speaker 1: subscribe to Cocker Reports, guys who are watching these horses 374 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: train each and every morning and they can watch their 375 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 1: evolution and report to you on their evolution. And it's 376 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 1: kind of thing. Yes, it's it's accessible to other people, 377 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,679 Speaker 1: but folks tend not to spend the money for it. 378 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: And it can be very insightful because these are, after all, 379 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,400 Speaker 1: agricultural products, right, their horses, right, they go good and bad, 380 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 1: and so it's very important to know how they're doing 381 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 1: day to day, week to week. Um. You know they 382 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: are also um, if you were to go to the 383 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: paddock before the race. I mean I'm a big believer 384 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:43,880 Speaker 1: and being in the paddock before the race and watching 385 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,919 Speaker 1: those horses, and over the course of years and years 386 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: I've learned and read about you know, you know what 387 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 1: when a horse is giving signs that the horses physically 388 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 1: really ready to roll, and when he's not so ready 389 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: to roll, And that's just kind of going back to 390 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,400 Speaker 1: the pinhooking something. You just learned to watch the patterns 391 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 1: over the years, and there's no shortcut on that. Yeah, 392 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 1: you you do. And also I mean, in my case, 393 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,639 Speaker 1: you know, initially started I probably picked up a handful 394 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: of books on the subject written by horsemen, not not 395 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: by uh not by journalists like myself. But yeah, I 396 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 1: mean there are certain telltale signs that become pretty obvious 397 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 1: to you. Like you know, if you ever see in paintings, 398 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 1: classical paintings, you know, a horse and a painting, you know, 399 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,400 Speaker 1: they always get that really bowed arched neck. And if 400 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: you ever see a horse it's really bowing its neck 401 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: arch neck that is you know what we call like 402 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 1: a sort of war horse kind of pose. That is 403 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 1: a very proud, very a horse that's feeling full of himself. 404 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: That's usually pretty good tip off something we're talking about 405 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: before that you uh uh, sort of based on being 406 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 1: in the paddock. You told me something about how smart 407 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 1: money is early in the bedding. That's right. Yeah, smart 408 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: money is often early and and it's a great thing 409 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 1: to watch, not so much on derby day. It's probably 410 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 1: a little bit harder on derby day because so much 411 00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 1: money is pouring in. But you know, typically in a trainer, 412 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: an owner, the grooms, everybody involved at the horse loves 413 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 1: the way their horses is doing. They love the way 414 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 1: he's he's suddenly back eating well, and he's training great, 415 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 1: and his coat looks terrific, and they love their horse 416 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: this day, and they want to bet on him in 417 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: the paramutual windows, which they're allowed to, which is legal. 418 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: They will typically do that early on in the day 419 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 1: because when it comes time to saddle the horse and 420 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: for him to run, they're busy. They well, it's it's 421 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: it's they typically, at least traditionally, I've always got that 422 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 1: done early. So when when when a race is about, 423 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 1: you know, when the fifth races ended, and now we're 424 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 1: going to the sixth race, and there's twenty five minutes 425 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,479 Speaker 1: of the sixth race. That first flash of odds you 426 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 1: see on the board is often very telling. If a 427 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: horse out of the blue that no one expected to 428 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,120 Speaker 1: be the favorite, starts off at two to one. Uh, 429 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: and you can take a look at the wind pools. 430 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:56,439 Speaker 1: You always want to look at the wind pools. There 431 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: there really a lot of money in that wind pool 432 00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 1: or is it just a little money. And if you 433 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 1: see that horse that no one expected is starting off 434 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,400 Speaker 1: at two to one and there's a lot of money 435 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 1: in the windpool, it's a pretty good tip off that 436 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 1: the barn likes their horse. The insiders, the insiders, legal inside, 437 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,919 Speaker 1: you know, inside information, they have um. Again, they're just 438 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,679 Speaker 1: privy to things that we would not be. Yes, the 439 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 1: clocker reports can give you a bit of an inclination 440 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 1: of that for sure. Yes, what you see in the 441 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 1: paddock can tell you that a little bit as well. 442 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 1: But they ultimately know this horse in a way that 443 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 1: we just wouldn't. So, you know, it's always a great 444 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,160 Speaker 1: sign when you see a horse out of the blue 445 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 1: like that he starts off at two to one, because 446 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 1: because the barn itself really pounded him, and then he 447 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 1: drifts two to one, three to one, five to one, 448 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: eight to one. That eight to one when the horse 449 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 1: when the race goes off, that's the odds. Those are 450 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 1: the odds you get. All right, let's talk quickly about 451 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: this specific race which is coming up on Saturday. So 452 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 1: obviously between now and then, no one is going to 453 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:55,120 Speaker 1: gain the years of experience that you have checking out 454 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 1: these horses in the barn and so forth. Most people 455 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 1: are just going to be coming at it. But give 456 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 1: us your take on this upcoming race and some insight 457 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 1: that could help the one day year gambler do a 458 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:10,879 Speaker 1: little better than he might have done here she might 459 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,119 Speaker 1: have done in previous than in previous year. Yeah, so 460 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:14,959 Speaker 1: a couple of things on that. I mean, one thing 461 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: I would say is that the Derby is traditionally a 462 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 1: somewhat chaotic event, right, So whereas if you were to 463 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 1: look at the r o I over an extended period 464 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:31,640 Speaker 1: of time on the long on long shots in races 465 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: non Kentucky Derby races, just normal races, bending long shots 466 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 1: thirty one hundreds of one, it's a terrible bet. Decades ago, 467 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,199 Speaker 1: my father ran a very significant study has this, and 468 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 1: about a decade ago I ran the data as well. 469 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: The returns are just abysmal because they're overpriced because everybody 470 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 1: wants to bet. It's there's always some pool of money 471 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 1: out there that's just gonna bet the long shot because 472 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,439 Speaker 1: it looks like it looks cheap. Exactly. It's the dollar 473 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 1: in a dream kind of thing, and so it looks 474 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 1: cheap at eighty to one, But Joe, you know what 475 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 1: at eighty one actually is not perhaps, but in the Derby, 476 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,880 Speaker 1: it turns out, given the fact that there are three 477 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 1: key elements that make it a chaotic race. You know, 478 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: betting long shots has been pretty good over the past 479 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 1: twenty years. And so the three elements are a the 480 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: size of the crowd, hundred and fifty thousand drunk Kentuckians 481 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: and other Americans, creating a very boisterous, unnerving environment for horses, 482 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: for animals that are ultimately prey animals, they're very skittish, 483 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,919 Speaker 1: they're very jumpy, they're very nervous, and the big favorite 484 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 1: of the top five favorites, for all we know, they 485 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 1: may leave their race on the track before the race 486 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: even begins. They may be so unnerved by the crowd. 487 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 1: Keep in mind, in a typical Saturday at the at 488 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,919 Speaker 1: racetracks across America, these horses are running in front of 489 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 1: ten thousand people. So go from ten thousand people to 490 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,640 Speaker 1: hundred fifty thousand people is a big difference. That's one. 491 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,360 Speaker 1: Two is none of them has ever run this distance 492 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,360 Speaker 1: before in their life. A mile and a quarter. It's 493 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 1: the longest distance. It's hard sometimes to fully project who's 494 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 1: going to really want to go that far. That's a 495 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 1: second element that makes it a big chodech. And the 496 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: third element, and perhaps the most important, is with twenty horses, 497 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 1: on the race track, it's this cavalry charge, it's a stampede, 498 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 1: and many, many times the best horse will be compromised 499 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 1: by a bad trip. He'll get slammed into, he'll get 500 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 1: stuck behind other horses, He'll find himself in situations he's 501 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: never confronted before, and things can sort of lead to 502 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 1: these bizarre long shots coming up and out of nowhere 503 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 1: and winning. So, you know, history just shows that you know, 504 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 1: if you were to if there's a race to chase 505 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 1: long shots, the Derby is not a bad one to chase. 506 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 1: The other thing I would just say is if you 507 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,479 Speaker 1: were to sort of practically apply some of the value 508 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 1: handicapping concepts of this race, I think you could look 509 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 1: at it through two horses that I'd like to look at, Exaggerator, 510 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: who's probably going to be the second favorite in the race, 511 00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,479 Speaker 1: and a horse named gun Runner, who will be somewhere 512 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: midpack in the betting now. Exaggerator on the buyer's speed 513 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 1: figures scale, got a huge number last time out in 514 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: the Santa Nita Derby out in California. You got a 515 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,320 Speaker 1: one hundred and three buyer, which, if if memory serves 516 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 1: me correct, it's probably the highest last out buyer of 517 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 1: any horse in the field. Gun Runner, on the other hand, 518 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 1: has been running figures in the low nineties, and Exaggerator 519 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 1: is gonna probably be about six to one eight to 520 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 1: one as the second favorite, and gun Runner is probably 521 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,679 Speaker 1: gonna be in the fifteenth to one category. Now, the 522 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,360 Speaker 1: thing that you know they keep in mind now that 523 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 1: the reason why I would say these horses were probably 524 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:40,919 Speaker 1: fair odds would probably have both of them closer to 525 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 1: ten to one. So rather than Exaggerator being eight to 526 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 1: one in gun Runner fifteen to one, I would say 527 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: fair price would be tend to one and tend to one. 528 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:52,439 Speaker 1: A couple of things play into that. Exaggerators big figure 529 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: in the Santa Nita Derby was largely created by the 530 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,680 Speaker 1: pace of the race. Turned he was twenty lengths off 531 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 1: the lead eaters. The leaders were flying early, going way 532 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 1: too fast. They all absolutely knocked themselves out, crawled home, 533 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,959 Speaker 1: and he came flying from behind, and because they had 534 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,720 Speaker 1: softened themselves up so much, he was able to sort 535 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,680 Speaker 1: of just inhale them all and it looked very visually impressive. 536 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 1: He won by four or five lengths. He got this 537 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,360 Speaker 1: huge speed figure, and he's a nice horse. And I'm 538 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: not saying he can't win the race. He certainly can, 539 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 1: but that race on paper looks a lot better than 540 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,520 Speaker 1: it actually was. Any horse that's worth his salt that's 541 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:36,280 Speaker 1: sitting twenty lengths off of a torrid battle upfront, damn 542 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: well better win the race. So that's that's why that 543 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 1: hundred three buyer and that big win he had is 544 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:48,600 Speaker 1: going to inflate, essentially, inflate his appearance and attract more 545 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,679 Speaker 1: money than should. Gun runner, on the other hand, as 546 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,720 Speaker 1: a horse who's been only running middling poor buyer figures, 547 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 1: and people would look at that and sort of be 548 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 1: driven away, scared off. Having broken this horse down on 549 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 1: fit home, I can tell you I think forget about 550 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 1: the speed figures. This horse is just a runner. He 551 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,159 Speaker 1: is tactical. He breaks well out of the gate, He 552 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 1: sits nicely behind other horses and and does what we say, 553 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,920 Speaker 1: he eats dirt. You know, horses, it doesn't come natural 554 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 1: to them to sit, to run behind other horses and 555 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 1: have all that dirt and mud kicked into their eyes, 556 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,439 Speaker 1: their nose, their mouth, And it happens a lot in 557 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,400 Speaker 1: the derby because it's such a big field. He does 558 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: that very easily, very nicely, doesn't seem to bother him 559 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 1: at all. And he's just a horse that runs very forwardly, 560 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,879 Speaker 1: really carries the jockey wherever he wants to go. And 561 00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 1: in these races which he has been winning and producing 562 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 1: low buyer figures, he's just been pulled out at the end. 563 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 1: He's been traveling behind other horses and he's been pulled out, 564 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 1: you know, as they head into the home stretch and 565 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: he goes by him and the jockey then sort of 566 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,720 Speaker 1: wraps him up and the race ends. And it may 567 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 1: not be producing really big numbers, but I can tell 568 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:01,440 Speaker 1: visually watching him, you can tell this horse can run. David, 569 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 1: this is awesome. I could I could listen to talking 570 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: about this stuff for a long time. And now one 571 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 1: one of my new life goals. I want to watch 572 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:12,160 Speaker 1: film with you sometime and see how you break all 573 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,680 Speaker 1: this down. But thank you very much for coming on 574 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 1: the podcast. And I feel I feel smarter than I 575 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 1: did half an hour ago, or than I was half 576 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 1: an hour ago. And I feel like if I were betting, 577 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,480 Speaker 1: i'd feel a little more confident. Excellent show. Does that 578 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 1: mean you're gonna make any good right? Right? But I'll 579 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,160 Speaker 1: lose money, feeling less stupid. All right, thank you, David, 580 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: Papa Doubulas. I'm Joe Wisenthal. You could follow me on 581 00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 1: Twitter at the Stalwart and David you're on Twitter right. 582 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 1: I am el Greco. David el Greco, David el Greco, 583 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 1: thank you very much for listening. We'll be back here 584 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 1: next week. But knowledge to work and grow your business 585 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 1: with ce i T. From transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. 586 00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,360 Speaker 1: Ce i T offers commercial lending, leasing, and try measury 587 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,960 Speaker 1: management services for small and middle market businesses. Learn more 588 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,640 Speaker 1: at c i T dot com. Put knowledge to work