1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 2: I mean may not have an overall recession. We're having 3 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 2: a rolling recession. To conye, roll looks pretty strongly is 4 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 2: when it comes to jobs. The financial stories that shape 5 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 2: our work. Three major regional bank failures send shockwaves through 6 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 2: the banking system. We're all trying to figure out what 7 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 2: to make of generative AI. 8 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:19,320 Speaker 1: Through the eyes of the most influential voices. 9 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 2: Welcome Dow Doctor Paul Krugman, Ryan moynihan, a Bank of America, 10 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 2: deebro Lair of the Paulson Institute, Len Hubbard of the 11 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:26,240 Speaker 2: Columbia Business. 12 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: School, Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. 13 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,919 Speaker 2: This week, Jillian Tet at The Financial Times on investing 14 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 2: in geopolitical risk. 15 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 3: In some ways, what we're seeing right now is about 16 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 3: to the future. 17 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,919 Speaker 2: Josh Bolton of the Business Roundtable on what American CEOs 18 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:42,559 Speaker 2: want in their next president. 19 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,559 Speaker 4: The CEOs of the Business round Table are very concerned 20 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 4: about the fiscal situation of the United States. 21 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 2: And economist Melissa Carney on the fight over standardized tests 22 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 2: at the American universities. 23 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 5: Students submitted sat or ACT scores are very highly predictive 24 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 5: of their academic performance when they get to college. 25 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 2: But we start with Larry Fink of Blackrock and his 26 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 2: annual letter to investors focus this year on what he 27 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 2: calls a retirement crisis in the United States and around 28 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,759 Speaker 2: the world, which is what Larry is hearing about more 29 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:26,960 Speaker 2: and more from Blackrock clients. 30 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 6: My letters are a reflection of my conversation with clients, 31 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 6: So it is, and so over the past year I 32 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 6: heard more and more conversation about retirement or retirement crisis 33 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 6: from many parts of the world, from middle class developing 34 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 6: countries to developed countries. The acute problem here in the 35 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 6: United States is that we have still fifty seven million 36 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 6: Americans who don't have any savings or any retirement plan. 37 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 6: So his security is a fantastic foundation for retirement. But 38 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 6: if that's how you have when you retire, you're going 39 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 6: to be living in poverty, below the poverty line, because 40 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 6: it just is it's supplemental, but it's not meant to 41 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 6: be the totality of what you have in a retirement. 42 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 6: And the whole concept that we're aging, we're you know, 43 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 6: we're all living longer. And I think one of the 44 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,119 Speaker 6: big narratives I had to reflect in twenty twenty three 45 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,519 Speaker 6: was the miracles of medicine. When we talk about the 46 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 6: drugs like a zumpec and all the different weight loss drugs, 47 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 6: how that is extending life. It's conquering kidney disease and 48 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 6: liver disease and heart disease and joint disease. And then 49 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 6: there are new medicines now for dementia that extends life. 50 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 6: So if you think about the miracles of technology and 51 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 6: how it transforms our lives and extends our life, there 52 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 6: is not a dialogue in America or most places about 53 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 6: can't we afford that longevity and our entire retirement system 54 00:02:56,320 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 6: was based on statistics that were created fifty years ago, 55 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 6: whereby most Americans retired between sixty and sixty two then, 56 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 6: but most Americans then passed away at sixty seven. And today, 57 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 6: statistically a couple sixty years old in good health one 58 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 6: of them is going to live over ninety. And so 59 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 6: the other question is should we re evaluate how we 60 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:26,079 Speaker 6: work and how long we work because we all need 61 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 6: purpose in life, and in most people get fine purpose 62 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:34,399 Speaker 6: obviously maybe with their grandchildren, their children, their community. Many 63 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 6: people find purpose in their jobs, and the thought of 64 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 6: retiring at sixty with thirty more years or a thirty 65 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 6: year year life in front of you. We need to 66 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 6: have a dialogue. We need to have a conversation. And 67 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 6: you know, I'm an optimist. I am very optimistic about 68 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 6: the long term vitality of our markets. I'm bullish on capitalism. 69 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 6: The reason I'm bullish is when I read the newspapers 70 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 6: every morning and listen to Bloom in other news organizations, 71 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 6: it's full of scary things. 72 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 2: We talk about the problems. 73 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 6: We talk about all the problems less, but we solve 74 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 6: problems through conversation. And the one area where we have 75 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 6: no conversation is is the affordability of retirement. 76 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 2: Should we be changing the rules so we can put 77 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 2: our four to one case our iris into private markets. 78 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 6: I believe there are some great areas of private markets 79 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 6: that are going to be great investments for retirement, and 80 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 6: I would channel that more towards infrastructure because infrastructure has 81 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 6: a long maturity. It has a higher coupon, but it 82 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 6: has a lower profile of returns and what I would 83 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 6: say other areas of the private markets, so it has 84 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 6: more a good corridor of returns but higher probabilities of 85 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 6: meeting those returns, and so yes, we need to be 86 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 6: relooking at how we think about investing, whether that is 87 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 6: going to be in private equity or infrastructure. I do 88 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 6: believe we need to be putting more long dated assets 89 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 6: into retirement and so that you could so that you 90 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 6: could meet the returns that you need to have the 91 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 6: pool of money that you require during retirement. 92 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 2: In your letter, you talk a lot about the success 93 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 2: of the capital markets, although they've accomplished. At the same time, 94 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 2: you do mention the problem with particularly US debt. You 95 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 2: think it's more urgent than anytime. I think you said 96 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 2: you can remember in your lifetime. Put those two things together. 97 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 2: To what extent has the success of the capital markets 98 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 2: come specifically because we've taken more debt on the public 99 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 2: balance sheet. We've shifted debt from private balance sheets to 100 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 2: public balance sheets, no question. 101 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 6: Let's just use a statistic, and I think when I 102 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 6: talk about this statistic, I get frightened. In the year 103 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:57,679 Speaker 6: two thousand, the US deficit was eight trillion dollars. Today 104 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 6: it's thirty four trillion dollars. So twenty three years later, 105 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 6: we increased our deficit by twenty six trillion dollars. So 106 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:12,039 Speaker 6: for the first two hundred and thirty odd forty years, 107 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,279 Speaker 6: we increased our deficit the eight trillion, and in the 108 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:19,280 Speaker 6: last twenty three years we went we increased it by 109 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 6: twenty six trillion dollars. I think that speaks volumes of 110 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 6: what's happening in our in our in our country today. 111 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 6: The problem with these type of deficits is and now 112 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 6: with and I believe higher interest rates for longer, the 113 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 6: cost of financing our deficits are going to erode more 114 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 6: and more of our of our disposable income as a country. 115 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 6: And I do believe there we're getting to a point 116 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,359 Speaker 6: where our public debt is going to start up, crowding 117 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,119 Speaker 6: out private capital, and we're going to have structurally higher 118 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 6: interest rates. 119 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 2: That was black Rocks Larry think if growth is the goal, 120 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 2: one of the most effective policy tools forgetting us there, 121 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 2: is it public investment? Is it private investment? Trade policy? 122 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 2: Tax policy. Glenn Hubbard advised President George W. Bush on 123 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 2: these questions as chair of the Consul of Economic Advisors. 124 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 2: He is now dean emeritus at the Columbia Business School 125 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 2: and author, most recently of The Wall and the Bridge. 126 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 2: So welcome back, Glenn. Always great to have you here, 127 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: So let's talk about growth. Because everybody talks about it, 128 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 2: I'm not sure anybody does anything about it. But if 129 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:24,559 Speaker 2: that is our goal that we want to get to growth, 130 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 2: what drives that the most? From your point of view 131 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 2: as a matter of policy. 132 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 7: Well, to me, that's the biggest question in economic policy data, 133 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 7: and I think growth is super important for our living standards, 134 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 7: for ability to do anything. There are policies that work, 135 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 7: but we also have to remember to get social support 136 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 7: for those policies. A lot of economists line up policies 137 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 7: and all the angles that you listed, all correctly, but 138 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 7: without thinking about social support. We need to do both. 139 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 2: So we've had the bide adminstration now which has tended 140 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 2: to favor to some extent public investment. We have in 141 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 2: the Inflation Reduction Act, we have it in the Infrastructure Act. 142 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 2: What is the role of public investment in order to 143 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 2: get growth going? 144 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 7: Well, public investment can play a big role in growth, 145 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 7: but I don't think it's the type that we're seeing 146 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 7: in the present industrial policy. I think of it as 147 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 7: could we invest more in basic research for ideas in general, 148 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 7: for technology, for climate change mitigation, whatever you want, could 149 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 7: we put applied research centers around the country. Could we 150 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 7: do more in defense where we know we're going to 151 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 7: have to build up and use defense research spillovers in 152 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 7: the private sector. All of those make sense to me. 153 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 7: The Inflation Reduction Act less. 154 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 2: So when it comes to industrial policy, what did the 155 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 2: Trump administration do the first Trump administration? There may be 156 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 2: another one. 157 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 7: Well, Interestingly, one very successful piece of industrial policy in 158 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 7: the first Trump administration was Operation Warp Speed. Because there 159 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 7: you have the government in essentially a public private partnership 160 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 7: guaranteeing demand, expediting things. That strikes me as this kind 161 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 7: of holistic approach that I'm mentioning. It's a smaller case, 162 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 7: but a very important one. 163 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 2: I think it's a. 164 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 7: Mistake to use the sort of big spending industrial policy 165 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 7: as opposed to that kind of partnership or research support. 166 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 2: Some might say that President Trump when he was there 167 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 2: used big spending in the form of tax cuts, because 168 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 2: that is a form of expenditure, after all, Was that 169 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 2: effective in getting private investment? Because I've read very mixed 170 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 2: things about that. 171 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 7: Well, I think it is. I mean, most of the 172 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 7: scholarship I've seen on the Tax Cut in Jobs Act 173 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 7: of twenty seventeen that you're referring to does indicate quite 174 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 7: substantial increases investment. Why is it mixed? Because remember, at 175 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 7: the same time, we also had a protectionist policy tilt 176 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 7: that's very anti investment and anti growth. But the pure 177 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 7: effects of the tax cut were there. And I would 178 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 7: think that the next Congress and the next president, whoever's 179 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 7: in those various chairs, are going to have to figure 180 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 7: out what to do about the Tax Cut and Jobs 181 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 7: Act because many of its provisions are expiring. 182 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 2: Well, you took us to trade pretty quickly. What about trade? 183 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 2: What is the role of trade policy and and growth? 184 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,479 Speaker 7: Well, unfortunately, this is one where both of our candidates 185 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 7: are offering a fairly protection US trade policy to the country. 186 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 7: We need openness and markets. We need markets for American exports. 187 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 7: We need to be open here to other goods and 188 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 7: services unless there's a national security interest. But we also 189 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 7: have to bring everybody along. And I would hope that 190 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 7: either a President Biden or a President Trump would realize 191 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 7: that and pose real world policies, not just tariffs. 192 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 2: We recently had another distinguished economists here, Paul Romer, who 193 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 2: had an approach to trade that was a bit different 194 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,439 Speaker 2: from what I'd heard before, which is basically be protectionist 195 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 2: when it comes to goods, importing of goods, but not 196 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 2: when it comes to capital and ideas. Essentially, you say, 197 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 2: come build it here, train our workers up, and we 198 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 2: keep our jobs where we don't lose them to China, 199 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 2: as many people think we did around two thousand. Well, 200 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 2: but this is. 201 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 7: What's curious about some of the president debates. We are 202 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,199 Speaker 7: having foreign investment in the United States and the jobs here, 203 00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 7: Yet we're questioning Nippon Steel and US steeltioning foreign automakers 204 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 7: being in the United States. Why we're hiring people here. 205 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 7: We're building things here. So I agree, Glenn. 206 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 2: What about this so called crowding out phenomenon. 207 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 7: Well, it's certainly a factor. I think the bigger issue 208 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 7: for deficits in debt is the future tax burdens that 209 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 7: they imply. In a global capital market, interest rates themselves 210 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 7: don't have to go up that much in response to 211 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 7: US borrowing. That said, we have to pay it back, 212 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 7: and business people understand that. You and I understand that 213 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,839 Speaker 7: as individuals, those are our future tax burdens. So it's 214 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 7: definitely a problem. In a good economy, we're running mammoth 215 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 7: deficits the most recent Congressional Budget Office report says it's 216 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 7: just going to get worse. 217 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 2: We need to change. So let me beef specific here, 218 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 2: put a target on this. We had Larry Fink issue 219 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 2: his annual Chairman's letter, a long chairman's that's right, but 220 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 2: we read every word of it, and one of the 221 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:54,599 Speaker 2: things he said is the thing we need to do 222 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 2: on the deficit is grow our way out of it. 223 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 2: He was saying we need to grow at three percent 224 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 2: real growth, three percent real growth in order to go 225 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 2: to the deficit. Is that realistic? We can get closed? 226 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 7: So a lot depends on what you assume about productivity, 227 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 7: growth's response to artificial intelligence. So I think it might 228 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 7: be possible. Technically, you can't grow your way out of 229 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 7: the deficit. Our entitlement programs are linked into the real economy. 230 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 7: But I certainly agree with mister Fink that yes, growth 231 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 7: is the number one thing that we could do, and 232 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 7: there are a set of policies we've talked about some 233 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:27,959 Speaker 7: of those that would push us in that direction. 234 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,319 Speaker 2: Coming up, geopolitics loom larger in investor's minds than they 235 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,719 Speaker 2: have four years. We talked with Jillian Tett at the 236 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:39,559 Speaker 2: Financial Times about investing in a troubled world, and. 237 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 3: Entire generation was weird on the idea that if it's 238 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 3: not in a model or in the balance sheet, it 239 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 3: doesn't matter. 240 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,239 Speaker 2: That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. 241 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 242 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. 243 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 2: This is Wall Streetweek. I'm David Weston. Investors are facing 244 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 2: a sharp rise in political and geopolitical uncertainty, and yet 245 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,719 Speaker 2: markets seem to be assuming everything's just fine. To take 246 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 2: us through this apparent disconnect, Welcome back now, Jillian Ted, 247 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 2: columnist and member of the editorial board of The Financial 248 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 2: Times and provost of King's College, Cambridge. Jill, great to 249 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 2: have you back with us. 250 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 3: Great to be here, particularly these crazy weird times exactly. 251 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,199 Speaker 2: And you wrote a column just recently actually about TikTok, 252 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 2: and you think it's about TikTok and social media, but 253 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 2: it went beyond that to talk about how capricious governments, 254 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 2: certainly China but also the United States are and how 255 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 2: investors have to sort of accommodate that absolutely. 256 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 3: I mean, what I was really trying to talk about 257 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 3: in the TikTok column was the fact that we have 258 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 3: this paradox in markets. On the one hand, you have 259 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 3: market soaring on the back of a pretty good short 260 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 3: term economic outlook, a lot of relief about the so 261 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 3: called soft landing and excitement about the idea the Third 262 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 3: World cut rates later this year. But at the same 263 00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 3: time we have really quite unprecedented levels of medium to 264 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 3: long term geopolitical risk and domestic political risk, and TikTok 265 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 3: is one example of that in a fairly extreme form, 266 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 3: because until a couple of years ago, there were a 267 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 3: lot of big private capital players who assumed this was 268 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 3: going to be one of the hothest things in the 269 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 3: tech landscape. People were talking about it potentially being the 270 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 3: most lucrative and profit generating trade that they've seen for 271 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 3: a long time. But of course now we know that 272 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 3: Washington is considering forcing TikTok to essentially be banned if 273 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 3: byke dances parent doesn't sell off TikTok to an outside player, 274 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 3: And so suddenly geopolitical risk has come in and spot 275 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 3: the party. And that's a metaphor for what's happening or 276 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 3: what could happen in many many asset classes and in 277 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 3: relation to many types of securities going forward. And my 278 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 3: concern is that investors are simply not realizing the magnitude 279 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 3: of that risk. 280 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 2: Julie, we all know you for your work at Financial Times, 281 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 2: how you've covered international finance for many, many years. At 282 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 2: the same time, I want to go back to your 283 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 2: original training because I love to talk to you as 284 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 2: a social anthropologist. That's where you have your PhD. Apply 285 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: that if you can to investors, what are they missing here? 286 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 2: Is it because they're wishing themselves to success and just saying, 287 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 2: let's make believe there aren't these problems. Is it because 288 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 2: it's just too difficult to try to discount this geopolitical 289 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 2: risk in China or the United States? 290 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 3: I think the key thing in Bester is are missing 291 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 3: right now? Is that if you look back at the 292 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 3: second half of the twentieth century, that was an era when 293 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 3: we saw the rise of all kinds of intellectual tools 294 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 3: that were very useful for navigating the world, like balance sheets, 295 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 3: like economic models, like opinion polls, and all of those 296 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 3: rows on the back of the computer revolution and the 297 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 3: fact that it became possible to crunch huge amounts of 298 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 3: data for the first time on a large scale. Now, 299 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 3: the problem with all of those tools is that although 300 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 3: they're incredibly useful, they're only as good as what you 301 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 3: put into your model, onto your balance sheet, onto your 302 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 3: opinion poll, and what you leave out can sometimes matter enormously. 303 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 3: And the story of the last few years is that 304 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 3: what has been left out, what has been a footnote 305 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 3: in the balance sheet, or an externality to the economic model, 306 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 3: like medical risk, like environmental issues like social upheaval, like 307 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 3: rapid tech change, or now domestic politics and geopolitics, those 308 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 3: issues that were not included in those fancy computerized models 309 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 3: are suddenly becoming the model in a sense, their most important. 310 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 3: And from a cultural perspective, an entire generation was reared 311 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 3: on the idea that if it's not in the model 312 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 3: or in the balance sheet, it doesn't matter. And now 313 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 3: they're waking up and realizing with the shock that's wrong. 314 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 3: That was no surprise to the people who were investing 315 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 3: before the eras of model making and balance sheet fine tuning, 316 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 3: but it is a surprise now because of this cultural pattern. 317 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 2: Jenny, I want to pick up on one thing you 318 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 2: refer to as political risk as we face election here 319 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 2: in United States, serre elections around the world, but we've 320 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 2: tend to focus on the presidential one here, and is 321 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 2: there a new element of uncertainty in misinformation because I 322 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 2: know you've done a lot of work on that subject. 323 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 2: There is, by the way, which may tests back into TikTok, 324 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 2: because that's some of the objections about TikTok. 325 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 3: Absolutely, the issue of misinformation is a classic issue which 326 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 3: was not appearing on the economist model or even frankly 327 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:32,119 Speaker 3: on many politicians or political models in the past, and 328 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 3: the issue cuts both ways. On the one hand, there 329 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 3: really is a very real risk that AI and other 330 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 3: types of tech digital technologies will end up manipulating or 331 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 3: meddling with the whole voting process in a way that 332 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 3: discredits potentially the outcome in November. The other risk, though, 333 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 3: for investors, is that fear of that causes some very 334 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 3: unpredictable and potentially capricious reactions from Washington that could potentially 335 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 3: hurt the tech sector. And what we see in the 336 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 3: last year or two is a tech sector boom dramatically 337 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 3: on the idea that these extraordinary technological breakthroughs around AI 338 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 3: would keep generating more and more profits and enable American 339 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:17,360 Speaker 3: business to boom. That may be the case, but anyone 340 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 3: investing in tech today has to think about the ways 341 00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 3: that the growing politicization of tech could essentially upend their 342 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 3: models and projections for the future as well. And yes, 343 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 3: TikTok Byte Dance is an extreme case, but it's certainly 344 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,400 Speaker 3: not the only one at the moment that's out there 345 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,360 Speaker 3: that investors need to think about. 346 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 2: Jillian's always such a great treat to heavy on Wall Street. Wee, 347 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 2: there's Jillian Tech of the Financial Times and King's College, Cambridge. 348 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 2: As we move closer to the presidential election in November, 349 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 2: Global Wall Street focused on what the differing economic policies 350 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 2: of the two front runners, President Joe Biden and former 351 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 2: President Donald Trump could mean for business. For his views, 352 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 2: we welcome back now Josh Bolton. He's president and CEO 353 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,679 Speaker 2: of the Business Roundtable and former chiefs staff to President 354 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 2: George W. Bush. So, Josh, welcome back. Good to have you. 355 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 2: Before we get into what November might mean for business, 356 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 2: let's talk about where we are right now. I know 357 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 2: quarterly you do a survey of your CEOs. Who are 358 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,199 Speaker 2: your members? Where do your CEOs think we are as 359 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 2: an economy right now? 360 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 4: David, thanks for having me back. Our CEOs are in 361 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 4: a pretty comfortable place. Every quarter, we ask them about 362 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 4: their expectations for sales over the coming six months and 363 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 4: their plans for capex and hiring over that same period, 364 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 4: and we combine the results into a headline index that 365 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 4: is basically a pretty good barometer of CEO sentiment, and 366 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 4: the CEOs in the Business Roundtable their sentiment for the 367 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 4: coming six months is pretty good. For the first time 368 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 4: since the third quarter of twenty twenty two, that headline 369 00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 4: index is above its historic app ridge. So it's not exuberant, 370 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 4: it's not going gangbusters as far as our CEOs are concerned. 371 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 4: But they see things as in pretty good shape for 372 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 4: the coming six months based on economic fundamentals. And it 373 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 4: seems to me, David, that the one thing that might 374 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 4: throw them off of that optimistic outlook is something that 375 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 4: happens in something dramatic that happens in our politics or 376 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 4: our geopolitics. 377 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 2: So let's talk about that specific because as I say, 378 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 2: you had experience in the White House, you know whereof 379 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 2: you speak, how much of a difference does it make 380 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,120 Speaker 2: who is in the White House? No matter who it is, 381 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,239 Speaker 2: can the president really affect the economy substantially. 382 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 4: Well from the standpoint of our businesses enormously, and in 383 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 4: particular during periods when the tax code is open for renegotiation, 384 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 4: when there are potential trade deals on the table that 385 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 4: might or might not happen depending on who's in charge. 386 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 4: The regulatory environment is dramatically influenced by who's in the 387 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 4: White House. So all of those things can really affect 388 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 4: the business outlook from the standpoint of our country's biggest corporations. 389 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,880 Speaker 2: Let's take those three that you've mentioned, starting with taxes 390 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 2: and the difference as we perceive it right now between 391 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,120 Speaker 2: the two front runners, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Joe 392 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 2: Biden has said he wants to increase taxes and specifically 393 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 2: on corporations. Presumably President Trump would want to renew the 394 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 2: so called tax cuts, the Trump tax cuts. So how 395 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:46,200 Speaker 2: does business perceive the alternative between these two individuals. 396 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 4: Well, business very much welcomed the tax cuts that passed 397 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 4: in twenty seventeen. They had a lot to do with 398 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 4: the prosperity that we enjoyed before the pandemic and that 399 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 4: we enjoy now. Is a reasonable tax environment. Prior to 400 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 4: twenty seventeen, the United States was among the highest tax 401 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 4: jurisdictions among developed countries. The twenty seventeen Act didn't bring 402 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:18,440 Speaker 4: us to the head of the pack, but it put 403 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 4: us in the middle of the pack where it's possible 404 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 4: for US companies to compete. In twenty twenty five, a 405 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,159 Speaker 4: lot of those provisions that brought us back into a 406 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:33,159 Speaker 4: competitive range are going to expire, and there will be 407 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,879 Speaker 4: a big debate about what to do with a whole 408 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 4: range of tax provisions on both the corporate and the 409 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:47,199 Speaker 4: individual side, And the occupant of the White House is 410 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 4: going to have a lot to say about whether taxes 411 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:57,919 Speaker 4: go up or remain roughly roughly where they are. The 412 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,719 Speaker 4: composition of the Congress for that purpose is also going 413 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 4: to be very important, and as close as it looks 414 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:10,879 Speaker 4: like polling suggests that our presidential elections will be the 415 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 4: control of both Houses of Congress is also very much 416 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 4: in doubt. 417 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,959 Speaker 2: Josh, As you know so well taxes in Washington, amount 418 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 2: of revenue. I mean, if you cut taxes, you lower 419 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:27,439 Speaker 2: revenue as well. Typically, how concerned our business CEOs studios 420 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 2: of incorporations about our debt and deficit situation? Because there's 421 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:31,639 Speaker 2: a lot of concern on. 422 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 4: Economists point yeah, And as a former budget director, I'm 423 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 4: concerned as well. The CEOs of the Business Roundtable are 424 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 4: very concerned about the fiscal situation of the United States. 425 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 4: But from their perspective, the United States doesn't really have 426 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 4: a problem that we're under taxed, certainly on the corporate side. 427 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 4: We have a problem of overspending. And if you look 428 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 4: at historic data about taxation, tax revenue is a percentage 429 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 4: of GDP and government spending as a percentage of GDP, 430 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,200 Speaker 4: you see that the tax revenue over time is reware 431 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 4: in a relatively historically average place in how much of 432 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:23,679 Speaker 4: our GDP taxes are taking. What's gone way out of 433 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 4: whack is the spending. 434 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 2: I'll concerned as the business community with increased terrors, particularly 435 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 2: some of those ones which are about like fifty sixty 436 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 2: even one hundred percent on Chinese products. 437 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, that would be it would be highly disruptive. The 438 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 4: United States cannot operate in the modern world as its 439 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 4: own bubble of a protected economy. We are in a 440 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 4: global economy, and we damage our own prosperity and our 441 00:24:55,359 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 4: own future competitiveness if try to protect ourselves by tariffs 442 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 4: or any other measure from a global international trading environment. 443 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,639 Speaker 4: Nobody knows that better than the big companies that are 444 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 4: members of the Business Roundtable because they operate in Most 445 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,399 Speaker 4: of them operate in many countries around the world, and 446 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:19,440 Speaker 4: they need to be able to compete. 447 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 2: Josh, thank you so much for being on Wall Street 448 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 2: Week once again. That is Josh Bolton of the Business Roundtable, 449 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 2: coming up the fight over standardized tests. Are they helping 450 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 2: or hurting us make sure the right people get into college? 451 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 2: We ask economists Melissa Carney of the University of Maryland. 452 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 2: That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. 453 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 454 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. 455 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,159 Speaker 2: This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. Matching prospective 456 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,360 Speaker 2: students with the right college opportunities has never been more 457 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,680 Speaker 2: important for the students and for their future employers, which 458 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,640 Speaker 2: has led to greater scrutiny of the standardized tests used 459 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 2: to screen applicants, with some colleges turning away from the 460 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 2: SAT and the ACT and some schools returning to them 461 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 2: after giving them up. Thig us through the pluses and 462 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 2: minuses of standardized tests. Welcome back now, Melissa Karney, Professor 463 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,720 Speaker 2: of Economics at the University of Maryland, Lissa, great to 464 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 2: have you back with us. So, first of Larnias has 465 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 2: the most basic question, do they work? Do SATs and acts? 466 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 2: Are they accurate in predicting success in post secondary education? 467 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 5: Yes, is the short answer. The data that comes out 468 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 5: of college records has revealed very clearly that students submitted 469 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,360 Speaker 5: SAT or ACT scores are very highly predictive of their 470 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 5: academic performance when they get to college, much more so 471 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 5: than guidance counsel, recommendation letters or even their high school grades. 472 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,679 Speaker 5: In some sense, the fact that the test scores are 473 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 5: more predictive of college academic performance than high school grades 474 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 5: is not surprising given how much variation there is across 475 00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,119 Speaker 5: high schools and grading standards and academic rigor, and of 476 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 5: course rampant grade inflation has made grades less meaning meaningful, 477 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 5: And so test scores are just very predictive and a 478 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 5: really important signal that colleges have access to when they're 479 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:14,360 Speaker 5: looking for the right match, the right academic match between 480 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 5: students and their level of academic rigor. 481 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 2: What about the claims that I've seen that there's some 482 00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 2: cultural bias to these standardized tests, and by the way, 483 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 2: they disadvantage students coming from less fortunate families. 484 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, there's a couple points to make here. First, researchers 485 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 5: who have looked for this finding that the test scores 486 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 5: are very predictive of academic performance in college for students 487 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 5: from different backgrounds, and so that counters the idea that 488 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 5: it's not helpful for students from less advantaged backgrounds or 489 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,360 Speaker 5: it's biased against them. The second really important fact here 490 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 5: is that college admissions officers don't consider standardized test scores 491 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 5: in a vacuum. They're very open and transparent about the 492 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 5: fact that they evaluate these in the context. The bar 493 00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:01,200 Speaker 5: for what would be considered an impressive score is higher 494 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 5: for students coming from more advantaged backgrounds than less advantaged backgrounds, 495 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 5: and so that's really important to realize that admissions officers 496 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 5: are contextualizing the scores when they're submitted. And by the way, 497 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 5: this is why the move to test optional or test 498 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:20,800 Speaker 5: blind made it particularly difficult for kids from less advantaged 499 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:25,400 Speaker 5: backgrounds to signal to more academically rigorous schools that they 500 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,160 Speaker 5: were prepared. It's actually a particularly important signal for kids 501 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 5: from less advantaged backgrounds to be able to deliver to 502 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 5: university or college admissions officers who might not know their 503 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 5: high school very well, for instance. 504 00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, So there are various advantages people coming from families 505 00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 2: that have more wealth have, But one of them is 506 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 2: this incredible industry that's grown up around preparing for the 507 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 2: SAT and SAT act. I'll just go to my personal experience. 508 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 2: As you know, I'm involved in a charity in Yonkers 509 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 2: helping the public schools. So you go across the border 510 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,800 Speaker 2: to Bronxville, those kids are all getting tutoring, which costs 511 00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 2: a fair amount of money, not so much in Yonkers. 512 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 2: Doesn't that skew the system? 513 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, but admissions officers are aware of that. So what 514 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 5: they would see from a kid coming from Yonkers who 515 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 5: likely doesn't have access to that kind of tutoring or preparation. Really, 516 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 5: they're not going to evaluate the scores the same. The 517 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 5: report coming out of Dartmouth about why they're going back 518 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 5: to requiring tests is very clear on this. So they 519 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 5: use the example of a student from an advantaged background, 520 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 5: a high income family, a school that sends a lot 521 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 5: of kids to selective schools. A fourteen hundred on the 522 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 5: SAT would not have helped that student gained admission to Dartmouth. 523 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 2: But for a. 524 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 5: Student like your student from that you brought up from Yonkers, 525 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,640 Speaker 5: A fourteen hundred would have been very helpful to them 526 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 5: in earning admission. The problem is when the schools went 527 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 5: test optional, kids from different backgrounds were equally likely to 528 00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 5: withhold a score of fourteen hundred, presumably for because kids 529 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 5: from less advantaged backgrounds don't have access to the savvy 530 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 5: college counselors who are more tuned to how the game 531 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 5: is played and would have told them, no, this score 532 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 5: is helpful for you. You're not being compared to the 533 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 5: overall average or distribution. And so that's why the kids 534 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 5: who were most harmed by the elimination of the test 535 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 5: score requirement were really high achieving kids from less advantage backgrounds. 536 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 5: And that's a big part of the reason that schools 537 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 5: like Dartmouth and Brown and mat and Yale are saying 538 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 5: they're going back to requiring these tests. 539 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 2: Certainly, getting the right student into the right college is 540 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 2: a starting point, but it's not the ending point. They 541 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:28,840 Speaker 2: also have to succeed once they get there. They have 542 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 2: to make it all the way through, and the tracker 543 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 2: there that I've read is not so great about a 544 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,600 Speaker 2: lot of children making all the way through and particularly 545 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 2: ones from less advantaged families. What can we do to 546 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,160 Speaker 2: make sure they succeed once they get there. 547 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 5: I think this is really important. So, for instance, the 548 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,400 Speaker 5: University of California school system is still test blind, and 549 00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 5: people who are championing that have pointed out that those 550 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 5: schools are now enrolling more students from underrepresented minority groups 551 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 5: less advantaged backgrounds. But the problem is if that access 552 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 5: is coming at a cost of less academic match and 553 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 5: so you're bringing in students who are less likely to thrive, 554 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 5: and you're undermining the match between the academic preparation of 555 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 5: a student and the academic rigor of a particular campus. 556 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 5: So getting the match right is critically important. We don't 557 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 5: want to throw out signals of the match quality and 558 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 5: then students who are disadvantaged when they get to college. 559 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 5: You know, work has shown that a lot of students 560 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 5: need a lot of support systems, and you want to 561 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 5: be able to make sure that students are being well 562 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 5: served by the campuses they're at. That's a different problem. 563 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,440 Speaker 5: And by the way, there's a related problem here, which 564 00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 5: is the fact that students from different backgrounds are much 565 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,760 Speaker 5: you know, they have different levels of academic preparation by 566 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 5: the time they're eighteen. That's not the fault of standardized 567 00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 5: test scores. That is a reflection of rampant inequality and 568 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:51,760 Speaker 5: class gaps and opportunities and schools and family background and 569 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 5: all sorts of things that affect a student's likelihood of 570 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,720 Speaker 5: excelling in college when they're eighteen. And so again, throwing 571 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 5: out the metrics that show us these gaps exist don't 572 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 5: mean the gaps don't exist. They just make us make 573 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,400 Speaker 5: it harder for us to identify them and know. 574 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 2: Where to put our efforts. Give us a sense of 575 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 2: how big a problem it is in the Ivy League 576 00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 2: schools as opposed to those state schools like I came from. 577 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 5: I'm really glad you brought this up, and I'm proud 578 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 5: to teach one of these flagship state universities, University of Maryland. 579 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 5: But so let me be clear, all of the media 580 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 5: emphasis and even our public leaders talk about what's happening 581 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 5: in admissions at these private elite schools the Ivy League, 582 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:34,480 Speaker 5: all eight schools combined, serve less than one percent of 583 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 5: the ten point eight million students enrolled in four year 584 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:41,000 Speaker 5: institutions in this country. So whatever these schools are doing 585 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,720 Speaker 5: in admissions, whether it comes to their testing regime or 586 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:48,120 Speaker 5: legacy admissions, is really not that material to the story 587 00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,040 Speaker 5: of higher education in this country. I mean, it's very 588 00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 5: frustrating to me how much attention we give these schools, 589 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 5: given that the flagship universities, the University of Michigan, University 590 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 5: of Maryland, the Sunny System, the Unity System, they serve 591 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 5: so many more students than all of the ivy's put together. 592 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 5: But here's another way to look at this. Over the 593 00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 5: past thirty years, our country has produced a million more 594 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 5: college for your college degree holders than in nineteen ninety. Okay, 595 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 5: so we went from just over a million to just 596 00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,400 Speaker 5: over two million. Do you know how many more degrees 597 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 5: were granted by the ivs combined, an additional thirty five hundred. 598 00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,960 Speaker 5: So when it comes to expanding access to higher education, 599 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,360 Speaker 5: the story is just not at the elite private schools, 600 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 5: and so we need to be talking about what's happening 601 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 5: at the state schools, the public schools, their lack of funding. 602 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 5: That's where the real story is. 603 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,320 Speaker 2: And finally, Melissa, we just had a new budget proposed 604 00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 2: with the federal government. You spend a lot of time 605 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 2: looking at that. I know you're concerned about the deficit 606 00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 2: and the debt that we're building up at the same time, 607 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,080 Speaker 2: what did you see in that budget, if anything, that 608 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,480 Speaker 2: could help this problem of really making sure we're supporting 609 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:54,800 Speaker 2: kids coming from less fortunate families. 610 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,240 Speaker 5: What I would have liked to see in the budget 611 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 5: is a much bigger allocation of funding towards spending on kids, 612 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:09,320 Speaker 5: towards spending on less advantaged groups. I mean, we spend 613 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 5: more on interest on the debt at this point than 614 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 5: we do on all federal programs aimed at children. If 615 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,440 Speaker 5: we want to equip more students to be in a 616 00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,440 Speaker 5: position to thrive in college, if we want to close 617 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,920 Speaker 5: class gaps, to build up our workforce, we need to 618 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:26,080 Speaker 5: be shifting the budget not just away from deficit spending 619 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:29,040 Speaker 5: and interest payments, but really to have a more dedicated 620 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,240 Speaker 5: focused on forward looking investments, and that means in kids 621 00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 5: and younger generation in this country. That's what I would 622 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:37,760 Speaker 5: have liked to have seen in the budget. 623 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 2: Melissa. It's always a treat to have you with this. 624 00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us. That's MOSSA Carney 625 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,200 Speaker 2: of the University of Maryland, one of the great leaders 626 00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,160 Speaker 2: of the twentieth century, Winston Churchill said that the price 627 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:52,080 Speaker 2: of greatness is responsibility. We've been watching as some people 628 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 2: striving for greatness are being held responsible, like House Speaker 629 00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,040 Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, who found a way to get the Congress 630 00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,799 Speaker 2: to keep the government funded, only to be confronted with 631 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,120 Speaker 2: one of his own Republican colleagues trying to kick him 632 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:03,759 Speaker 2: out of his job. 633 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,840 Speaker 8: We need a new speaker. This is not personal against 634 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,920 Speaker 8: Mike Johnson. He's a very good man and I have 635 00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:12,759 Speaker 8: respect for him as a person, but he is not 636 00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 8: doing the job. 637 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:17,359 Speaker 2: Or President ge of China who aspires to greatness by 638 00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,239 Speaker 2: making sure he holds the reins of power in his economy, 639 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 2: but may end up bearing responsibility for its slow and growth. 640 00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:26,680 Speaker 2: I think this is all about state control. 641 00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:27,000 Speaker 7: You know. 642 00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 8: Sheijinping is all about control, and right now China is 643 00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 8: all about Sheijinping. 644 00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,120 Speaker 2: This week we saw the price of greatness in the 645 00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 2: corporate world, as Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun announced that he'd 646 00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,640 Speaker 2: be stepping down after a series of problems with Boeing 647 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 2: planes undermined confidence in his leadership, especially from his airline customers. 648 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,480 Speaker 1: Everybody's worried about boeing, we've got to get Bowing back 649 00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 1: to the point where it produces an impeccable product. 650 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,480 Speaker 2: And Nelson Peltz continues to do his dead level best 651 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,480 Speaker 2: to hold Bob Eyer responsible after years of great performance 652 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,200 Speaker 2: as Disney CEO, as his proxy battle comes to a 653 00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,080 Speaker 2: climax at the annual shareholders meeting on Wednesday. 654 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:08,720 Speaker 9: This really is a story not necessarily about Nelson Pelts, 655 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,400 Speaker 9: so Disney is actually sort of pushing that that line, 656 00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,680 Speaker 9: but really is more about the governance the company itself. 657 00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 2: But perhaps the strangest example of someone trying to hold 658 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:23,480 Speaker 2: a leader responsible comes from NBC, which last Friday announced 659 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,440 Speaker 2: it would be adding Ronald McDaniel as an on air contributor, 660 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,319 Speaker 2: just two weeks after she stepped down as chair of 661 00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:33,120 Speaker 2: the Republican National Committee. In the memo, staff, the NBC 662 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,120 Speaker 2: senior vice president of Politics said that quote, it couldn't 663 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,960 Speaker 2: be a more important moment to have Ms McDaniel on 664 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,400 Speaker 2: the team. Well, other members of the NBC team begged 665 00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:46,080 Speaker 2: to disagree. Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow, Joe Scarborough and Miko 666 00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,680 Speaker 2: Verziniski all very publicly objected in some pretty strong terms 667 00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 2: to what their leadership had done, and so NBC promptly 668 00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:56,160 Speaker 2: reverse course and decided that Ms McDaniel would not be 669 00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,759 Speaker 2: joining its team after all. Look, let me do with 670 00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,000 Speaker 2: the and in the room. Yes, I think our bosses 671 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 2: owe you an apology for putting you in this situation 672 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,239 Speaker 2: because I don't know what to believe. Trust me, this 673 00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,360 Speaker 2: isn't the first time that those in the newsroom have 674 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,840 Speaker 2: challenged decisions made by leadership. When I ran ABC News, 675 00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,480 Speaker 2: there were any number of times that my colleagues took 676 00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,600 Speaker 2: issue with things I was doing, everything from giving Leonardo 677 00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,560 Speaker 2: DiCaprio a role on an Earth Day special to using 678 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,839 Speaker 2: digital technology to cut the size of some of our 679 00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:26,920 Speaker 2: crews in the field. I even had some internal pushback 680 00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,080 Speaker 2: when I brought George Stephanopoulos on, and it came from 681 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:34,560 Speaker 2: none other than Peter Jennings, the journalists journalist. Peter told 682 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,839 Speaker 2: me I was making a big mistake because George had 683 00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,640 Speaker 2: not been trained in the craft, and even worse, he'd 684 00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,160 Speaker 2: spent time in the Clinton White House several years before. 685 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,480 Speaker 2: Looking back on it now, the issue seems almost quaint 686 00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:49,040 Speaker 2: given the first rate reporter, interviewer, and anchor George has 687 00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:52,279 Speaker 2: become and in fairness to Peter. After he'd worked with 688 00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,360 Speaker 2: him for a few months, he came back to me 689 00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,120 Speaker 2: to say he'd been wrong, that George had the instincts 690 00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,319 Speaker 2: and the work ethic of the best journalists in our newsroom. 691 00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,320 Speaker 2: But then again, I'm not gonna ware that George Stephanopoulos 692 00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,600 Speaker 2: ever challenged the legitimacy of an election that he'd lost. 693 00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,880 Speaker 8: We should all be concerned about the care, custody, integrity 694 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:12,840 Speaker 8: of every ballot. But that's all I'm saying. And you 695 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,120 Speaker 8: know what, this is a viewpoint of a lot of Republicans, 696 00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:18,799 Speaker 8: and they think Joe Biden's the president, but they also 697 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,239 Speaker 8: think there were problems and both can be true. 698 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,480 Speaker 2: That does it for this episode of Wall Street Week. 699 00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,360 Speaker 2: I'm David Weston. This is Bloomberg. See you next week.