1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,960 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju Us prout read. 2 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 2: Enough for running again, so smooth, so sweet. 3 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 1: Standard sixteen, just glorious extatution. 4 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. 6 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: How shot with that shop with mind and buddy, and 7 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 1: that's why you see your beautiful tiers. 8 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet. 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 2: Nobody picks them. 10 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying. The love is left to Wanda, 11 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: wide eyed, drilled fibus, how old Earth? 12 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: Pick that happens? Hillary one and welcome back to Wondergol, 13 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 2: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. Monday is 14 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 2: Michael lebuff and joining me for this hour. First of 15 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 2: two group stage Round three previews for Copa America is 16 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 2: bj Cunningham. We're gonna do a second episode where we 17 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 2: record Sunday night to cover you know, the USA group 18 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 2: and the Brazil group, but for now we will do 19 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 2: Group A and B and we'll start with Argentina and Peru. 20 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 2: Argentina is minus two hundred to win this match on 21 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 2: the three way line at pat three six five. Who 22 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 2: are proud sponsors Peru coming back at six to one 23 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 2: and the draw here is plus three ten. We're both 24 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 2: on the same page here. I think that this is 25 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 2: a win to nail kind of game of Argentina and 26 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 2: a shutout PJA at even money. 27 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:42,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, so technically Argentina has already well not I guess 28 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 1: they've already won the group because they have the tiebreaker 29 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: against Canada, So you could say that this match means 30 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: absolutely nothing to them. So yeah, I like Argentina more 31 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: on a shutout. You know, they obviously they don't really 32 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: conceive a lot of goals. I mentioned in the last 33 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: podcast that they have conceded six point six expected goles 34 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: in the last fourteen. Well now it's six point seven 35 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: and the last fifteen they conceded a point one expected goals. 36 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: Against Chile, they didn't have a shot until the second half. 37 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: And the same thing is gonna happen here with Peru. 38 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: You know, Peru has been okay like they've been. You know, 39 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: there's been a long, long stretch of matches for Peru 40 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: where they just have failed to create even one expected goal. 41 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: And to think that they're actually going to do it 42 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 1: here against Argentina, I think is a is a bit naive. So, 43 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 1: you know, Argentina did only win one nothing. They created 44 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: close to way over three expected goals, So instead of 45 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 1: taking them on the spread, I would just I would 46 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: just rather bet them to win in a shutout with 47 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: how good they are defensively, with how good they are 48 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: at controlling matches. So it's tough spot for Peru. They 49 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 1: have to go for it. They have no choice, so 50 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: you may see a lot of fouls them trying to 51 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: just get set pieces and hope for the best. But yeah, 52 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 1: even though Peru has to go for it in Argentina, 53 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: I think at this point, after what we've watched the Euros, 54 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: I think Argentina is the best team in the world 55 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: at controlling matches, So I think they control this one 56 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: from start to finish and win it nil at even money. 57 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 2: It's been a bizarre group. Chile and Peru are both 58 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 2: still alive despite the fact that they haven't scored yet, 59 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 2: but they also have only allowed one goal. 60 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: It's crazy. 61 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 2: Then you got Argentina who hasn't allowed a goal, they've 62 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 2: scored three, and Canada's got three total goals in their 63 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 2: matches one four to two against. It's it's all crazy. 64 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 2: Let's talk about what is essentially a decider between Canada 65 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 2: and Chile to see who goes through. Canada is plus 66 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 2: two to seventy on the three way line. They need 67 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: a point essentially to get through. Well, Chile has to 68 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 2: win to finish above Canada their plus one oh five 69 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 2: the draws plus two thirty. I like Canada here. I 70 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 2: think the plus two seventy on the money line is good. 71 00:03:56,760 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: I still think this team is just being underrated in tournament. 72 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 2: They are now sixty five to one to win it all. 73 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 2: It's what I see. I think, you know, if you 74 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: can find a better number out there, go for it. 75 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 2: I still think that's interesting. They they've it's obviously gonna 76 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 2: slash if they lose this match, and they or they 77 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 2: I shouldn't say that because obviously they're gonna If they 78 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 2: don't go through, it'll it'll get a lot longer. But yeah, 79 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 2: they need to win this match or get a point 80 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 2: out of this match to give that bet any legs. 81 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 2: But with what we've seen out of the other group, 82 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 2: the corresponding group, I'm I'm not afraid of any team 83 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 2: and group P for Canada in a knockout match, So 84 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 2: I like still like Canada at a big price to 85 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,359 Speaker 2: win this tournament. So anyway you want to bet Canada 86 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 2: here BJ I think is the right way to go. 87 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like them plus a half just because of 88 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 1: the situation that we're in right draw gets them through. 89 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: They have the tiebreaker over over Peru. So you know, 90 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: we've seen what's at least interesting to say the least 91 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 1: is that, you know, Canada's match against Peru. They obviously 92 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 1: got a red card in the second half and they 93 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 1: create a bunch of chances after that. They only took 94 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: one shot in the first half, but that shot was 95 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 1: of value, and they are a team that can beat 96 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: you in transition. And the thing about Chile she saw 97 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 1: against Argentina, they are incredibly open, especially when they get 98 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: in those transition moments. So with the Jesse Marsh team 99 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 1: having the attackers that they have like it creates a 100 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: very dangerous proposition for Chile. Who still you know, I mean, 101 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 1: you can't really take anything away from the Argentina match 102 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 1: and apply it here against Canada. But if you go 103 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,720 Speaker 1: back to the match against Peru, they were incredibly inefficient 104 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 1: in the final third, which is something that I said 105 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: coming into this tournament and it's probably gonna hold true. Here, 106 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: like they can get in the ball into final third, 107 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: but once they get there, it just kind of settles 108 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,919 Speaker 1: for some type of shot, mounts of the box or 109 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: some type of low quality chance. I mean, they have 110 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 1: a one point one expected goal so far as tournament, 111 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 1: so you know that's what you know. They created one 112 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 1: point one p ninety during the South American qualifiers. They're 113 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: just not that grave an offense. It's an older team, 114 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: especially in older cores. So I like Canada plus a half. 115 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: I think Chile, just given the situation, is overvalued. 116 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I couldn't agree more. We're not gonna do 117 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 2: like best bets or underdogs for this because we're only 118 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 2: doing four matches, but I think I would make Canada 119 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 2: moneyline my favorite bet of these four. So that's Saturday. 120 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 2: That's an eight pm kickoff time, so is the Argentina 121 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 2: prove these These will all kickoffs simultaneously to avoid any chickanery. Sunday, 122 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 2: June thirtieth, we have Jamaica and Venezuela. Another tough one 123 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 2: for Jamaica, losing one nil to Mexico. They are plus 124 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 2: three twenty underdogs against Venezuela. They're at the foot of 125 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 2: the table. I think technically they're still alive. They would 126 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 2: have to really do something special if I'm not mistaken, 127 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 2: like win seven nil. But does it Does it look 128 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,919 Speaker 2: good for them? Yeah, Venezuela is at the top of 129 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,799 Speaker 2: the group. They are on three goals for one against 130 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:58,039 Speaker 2: and they've got six points from two matches, so looks 131 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 2: they look to be in good stead. We had identified 132 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 2: them as the potential group winner before the tournament started, 133 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 2: so that looks good for us. They are plus like 134 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:10,119 Speaker 2: I said, Jamaica's plus three twenty Venezuela odds on minus 135 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 2: one ten on the three way line. The plus two 136 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 2: forty on the draw maybe a shred of value with 137 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 2: Jamaica on the money line, But I don't know, man, 138 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 2: it's just yeah, I'm not going to get not going 139 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 2: to get in too excited about this one. 140 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of like the over two and a 141 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: half at plus one thirty. So obviously the situation for 142 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: Jamaica is they have you know, I think they actually 143 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: technically might be actually eliminated. If they're not, they have 144 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: to completely go for it, which is not a good 145 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: scenario for them to be in. Right, Like, they are 146 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: better when they can sit deep in a four or 147 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 1: five to one and defend in that. But this is 148 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: something I said about Jamaica coming in the tournament, and 149 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: it's kind of, you know, held true a little bit. 150 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: Is that they are a team that has some names 151 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: that you recognize, right there are a team that has 152 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 1: some talent comparatively to a Panama or a Costa Rica. 153 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 1: But since septemnumber of twenty twenty one, they're aligning close 154 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 1: to two expected goals for ninety minutes. They conceded two 155 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: point three expected goals to Ecuador. And it really what 156 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: it comes down to is when you get them in 157 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: a negative game state, they don't know what to do, 158 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: or at least they're not very good in terms of 159 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: being this like high pressing type team. Through two matches 160 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: they've conceded forty two shots. I know that, you know, 161 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: a situation here for Venezuela is they can potentially they 162 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: can win the group if they just get a draw here, 163 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: So they might be playing out for that. But we've 164 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 1: seen that they can be a good transition team as well. 165 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 1: So I like over two and a half at plus 166 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 1: one thirty, I think Jamaica has to make this very 167 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: high event, which is going to leave a lot of 168 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: space in behind four Venezuela and create a very high 169 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,439 Speaker 1: scoring environment. Projected well over two and a half goals 170 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: here closer to two point six, So to over two 171 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: and a half at plus one thirty is good enough 172 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: for me. 173 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 2: Okay, And the other match in Group B is a 174 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 2: decider between Mexico and Ecuador. Right now. Ecuador has a 175 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 2: better goal difference, so a point for them gets them through. 176 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 2: Mexico's got a win here to do it, and it's 177 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 2: a straight pick them on the three way line. Basically, 178 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 2: Mexico it's the slightest underdogs plus one seventy five, Ecuador 179 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:22,160 Speaker 2: is plus one seventy the draw plus two twenty. I 180 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 2: think Ecuador is. If I had to pick, I would 181 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 2: go with Ecuador here. I do think that the fact 182 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 2: that they can, you know, just see how to draw 183 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 2: makes it a little tricky to back them on the 184 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 2: money line. But I do think Mexico just has really 185 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 2: failed to impress me in this tournament so far, so 186 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 2: I lean towards Ecuador. We'll see if I get there, 187 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 2: but I don't really want to bet Mexico here. 188 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:52,079 Speaker 1: Yeah, so Mexico was unlucky to say the least to 189 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: get a result against Venezuela, created two point four expected goals, 190 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: although they did have a penalty at the very end. 191 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: We've had third seven shots so far for Mexico in 192 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: this tournament, and they have accumulated three point four expectacles, 193 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: so a little bit under point one x g per shot, 194 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: So not bad, like it hasn't been bad, they just uh, 195 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: you know, that first performance against Jamaica was just incredibly inefficient, 196 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 1: and then this one was a little better, although they 197 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 1: were aided by a penalty. But this kind of sets 198 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 1: of well for Ecuador right like they're they're much better 199 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: without the ball, playing more passively, looking to play in transition, 200 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: whereas if the onus being on Mexico with the attack 201 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 1: that they have right now, if I would look at anything, 202 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 1: I would look at shot props for Mexico, just given 203 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: the situation that Ecuador is going to play more passively, 204 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 1: they're going to concede possession to Mexico, and a lot 205 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: of Mexico shots have just ended up from outside the box. 206 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: So if anything, I'd play some Mexico shot props over. 207 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: But yeah, I do project a little bit of value 208 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 1: on Mexico. But they've just you know, like you, I 209 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: just I don't know if I can really get behind it, 210 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: so I'd rather just take Mexico shots. 211 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 2: Okay, that does it for this one. It's just it'll 212 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 2: be quick. We'll be back again recording Sunday night to 213 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 2: do a group C and D and then back for 214 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 2: the quarterfinals. We've also recorded our Euro twenty twenty four 215 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:15,959 Speaker 2: around a sixteenth review that should be hitting your should 216 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 2: have already hit your feeds. So the summer of soccer 217 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 2: rolls on and we're here for it. So for Bj'm Michael, 218 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 2: for producer Noah, we say thank you to our sponsors 219 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 2: Best three sixty five. We also say thank you for 220 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:31,559 Speaker 2: keeping the lights on, and we'll see you again next time. 221 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 222 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,200 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 223 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler