1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. You should know, first 5 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: of all, the President has spoken. We heard from Joe 6 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: Biden earlier. This was at an unrelated event in the 7 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: East Room of the White House there to talk about 8 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:26,639 Speaker 1: infrastructure installing broadband service around the country. That's not, of course, 9 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: what reporters wanted to hear from. And instead of dealing 10 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: with the shouted questions and all of that, the President 11 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: decided to get right to it. What the heck happened 12 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: over the weekend in Russia, where, of course the Wagner 13 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:42,880 Speaker 1: group let an armed rebellion at the direction of Yevgeny Pregosion, 14 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,599 Speaker 1: only to stop one hundred and twenty four miles short 15 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: of Moscow. As I said at this time last hour, 16 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: pretty basic message from the White House, because everyone is 17 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: talking conspiracy theories here to what extent did the Americans 18 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: stoke thisato involved President says, don't look at me. 19 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 2: They agreed with me that we had to make sure 20 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,400 Speaker 2: we gave putin no excuse me emphasize, we gave Putin 21 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 2: no excuse to blame this on the West and to 22 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 2: blame this on NATO. We made clear that we were 23 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 2: not involved, We had nothing to do with it. This 24 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 2: was part of a struggle within the Russian system. I 25 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,279 Speaker 2: also talked to at Lant of Presidents and let's give Ukraine. 26 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: We'll be keeping in contacting them and may be peaking 27 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 2: him later today early tomorrow morning to make sure we 28 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 2: continue to remain on the same page. 29 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: With a new round of weapons another draw down five 30 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: hundred million dollars. According to Bloomberg national security reporter Nick 31 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: wadhams Now, the other part of this, the other major 32 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 1: development today is we heard from Putin's chef, the aforementioned 33 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: you have Gotnyt pregotion, breaking his silence for the first 34 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 1: time since all this happened on Saturday, saying he had 35 00:01:55,320 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: no intention of ousting Vladimir Putin's governments shmat when not 36 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: should it. This is part of an eleven minute long 37 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: audio message on his Press Services telegram channel, remembering that 38 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 1: he cut a deal here broker by Belarus and that's 39 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 1: where he apparently is hiding out. Although we have no 40 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 1: real sense of where he is or what he is doing. 41 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,519 Speaker 1: And there are a lot of questions that we have 42 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: been asking for the balance of this program on what 43 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: this means for him. Brett Bruin told us he's a 44 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: marked man. He may not be on this earth for 45 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: much longer. There are also reports, one specifically from the 46 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 1: Daily Telegraph saying he didn't turn around until he learned 47 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: Russian agents were threatening to go after his family. Further 48 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 1: questions about Vladimir Putin now that Pregosian ripped the covers 49 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: off the bed, we're taking a look at weaknesses inside 50 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: his government. And this is a very opaque situation here. 51 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: It's difficult for the West to know all against the 52 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: backdrop of a war happening in Ukraine. Is there an 53 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: opportunity for the Ukrainian military, with the help of the Americans, 54 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: to seize on this distraction and confusion happening in Russia. 55 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: We have a lot to talk about with Michael Kimmage, 56 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: who joins us now the Professor Department share in History 57 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 1: at Catholic University. He was formerly an expert on Russia 58 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: and Ukraine when it came to policy planning at the 59 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: State Department and he's with us now, Professor, welcome back 60 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg. I'm happy to have you here, and I'd 61 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: love to tick through some of these questions with you now. 62 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: Is Vladimir Putin weaker or more? In fact, is he 63 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 1: strengthened based on what happened and the fact that he 64 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: was able to put down this uprising? 65 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 3: Well, first of all, great to be with you. I 66 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 3: don't think that there's any analysis of the situation that 67 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 3: puts Putin out in a better place than where he 68 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 3: was before. Yes, he sort of dealt with it quickly, 69 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 3: and it seemed to get wound up pretty easily. But 70 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 3: how could it happen at all? You've seen warning signs 71 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 3: the last couple of months that Progosion was going to 72 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 3: do something. He Waltston to rust off the city of 73 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 3: a million, took over the military headquarters there, and then 74 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 3: got to the outskirts of Moscow without much evident resistance. 75 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 3: So even the way in which Putin has sort of 76 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 3: put an end to the situation, if that's what it is, 77 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 3: you know, he threatened to arrest Progotion in the morning 78 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 3: on Saturday, and then very generous in the afternoon. So 79 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 3: Putin is scrambling. I don't think he's ever looked as 80 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 3: weak or as vulnerable in the entire twenty three years 81 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 3: that he's been president. You know, possible four year exception 82 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 3: there from two thousand and eight to twenty twelve, but it 83 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 3: surely been in power for twenty three years, and this 84 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 3: is the low point, and it's going to be difficult 85 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 3: for him to dig out of it. 86 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: This is the low point. Matthew Miller is a spokesman 87 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: at your former State Department, Michael. Here's what he said 88 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: this morning. 89 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:49,359 Speaker 4: I will say with respect to the activities over the weekend, 90 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 4: obviously they were a significant step. It is a certainly 91 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 4: a new thing to see President Putin's leadership directly challenged. 92 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 4: It is a new thing to see you have any 93 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 4: progosion directly questioning the rationale for this war and calling 94 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 4: out that the war has been conducted essentially based on 95 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 4: a lie, which is something that we have said previously, 96 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 4: but we certainly have not seen coming from Russian officials previously. 97 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 4: Those are all significant steps, and what the implications of 98 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 4: those are I think remains to be seen. 99 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 1: Professor. If any Progosians said a lot of things out 100 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: loud that many Russians were already thinking, and I can 101 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:26,919 Speaker 1: only assume that is why he was celebrated as he, 102 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: or at least his Wagner troops went from one town 103 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 1: to another making their way down the highway to Moscow. 104 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 1: What does that tell us about the state of affairs 105 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 1: inside Russia, the popular opinion when it comes to the 106 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 1: war in Ukraine and the potential for it to end. 107 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 3: So some of the things that we want to note 108 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 3: over the last couple of days are what Progosion did 109 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 3: not say. And he did not say that the war 110 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 3: should come to an end. And as he repeated in 111 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 3: his most recent message, he didn't say that he was 112 00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 3: trying to topple the Putin regime. Limit to how critical 113 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 3: he's been, and that's important to acknowledge, But for months 114 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 3: he's been saying that the war has been terribly mismanaged. 115 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 3: He's pained blame so far, maybe a touch on Putin, 116 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,479 Speaker 3: but mostly on the Ministry of Defense. So that's his 117 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 3: real enemy to date. But you know, I think that 118 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 3: what Progotion is capitalizing on is enormous discontent at the front. 119 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 3: You know, none of us really knows what's happening on 120 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:27,919 Speaker 3: the Russian side of the war. It's not easy to 121 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 3: get information, but I don't think that he would have 122 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 3: made his run if the Russian soldiers on the front 123 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 3: were contented. And that's a huge vulnerability for Putin, because 124 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 3: Putin has been, in my assessment, a very inadequate wartime 125 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 3: president in the kind of political side of this. He's 126 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 3: not gone to the front, roll of his sleeves, do 127 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 3: a lot of the things that wartime leaders do, show 128 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 3: themselves leading with the soldiers, etc. He's been very aloof 129 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 3: and in that space, Progosion has really begun to operate. 130 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 3: It doesn't mean this it's a quick end of the 131 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 3: war coming. It doesn't mean the Progosion is stylizing himself 132 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 3: as an anti war alternative to Putin, because he clearly isn't. 133 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 3: But it does mean that he and I suspect other 134 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 3: political actors are going to start to use a badly 135 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 3: mismanaged war with a lot of discontent on the ground 136 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 3: for their own agenda, and that's not Putin's agenda. 137 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 2: Well. 138 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: Moreover, Michael, some are worried that this could lead to 139 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: some very erratic behavior by Vladimir Putin. Certainly, if he 140 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 1: thinks there's a window closing if he thinks morale is bad, 141 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: or maybe that Ukraine is somehow getting an upper hand 142 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: in its counter offensive. We've heard him threaten things. We've 143 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 1: heard him even threaten using nuclear weapons. How concerned are 144 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: you about his next move? 145 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 3: I don't think we're there yet, you know, if you 146 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 3: take a step back from the chaos of the last 147 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 3: couple of days, I mean, Ukraine has not advanced on 148 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 3: the battlefield really since November twenty twenty two. Russia occupies, 149 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 3: you know, between seventeen and twenty percent of Ukrainian territory, 150 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 3: and the counter offensive of Ukraine so far this has 151 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 3: certainly change in the next couple of weeks has reflected 152 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 3: only minimal gain. And you know, in some cases they've 153 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 3: been kind of pushed back by Russian soldiers. So it's 154 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 3: not really militarily the moment where Putin has to panic 155 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 3: and do anything different. And I don't think that nuclear 156 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 3: weapons would be an option for the foreseeable future. I 157 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 3: think in a way, Plutin's anxiety is going to be 158 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 3: a lot more about his domestic position, so he may 159 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 3: wrap it up, you know, attacks on Ukrainian civilians, mistic 160 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 3: attacks and such to show that he's in charge. But 161 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 3: I don't think you're going to see a big shift 162 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 3: in the war, not yet. 163 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: So let's talk more about what he might do domestically 164 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: than he needs to find a show of strength. At 165 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:37,199 Speaker 1: some point. Does he start riding horses shirtless again? Does 166 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 1: he fire the general staff? How wild could this get? 167 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 3: It's a mine for him. I mean, I think that 168 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 3: he could, in the way acknowledge Progosian's criticism as correct, 169 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 3: fire the general's staff, clean house, and sort of begin 170 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 3: again with Progosion still part of the team. That's the possibility. 171 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,719 Speaker 3: If that's if he wants to acknowledge that degree of 172 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 3: sort of power and significance. He could have something very 173 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 3: bad happened to Progosion, certainly a kind of arrest or. 174 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,839 Speaker 3: He could have him killed, that's not unthinkable. But then 175 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 3: he has to deal with, you know, the soldiers and 176 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 3: others who may feel loyalty to Progotion and be very 177 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 3: very angry at butindn't have the weapons to do things 178 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 3: that the kind of just happened over the course of 179 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 3: the weekend. So he's got to balance a lot of 180 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 3: movie pieces. And this is not the game Putin is 181 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 3: used to playing. Blutin is used to playing a game 182 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 3: against the United States, or he's used to playing a 183 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 3: game against liberal educated Russians in the big cities. He 184 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 3: noticed how to play those games relatively well. This is 185 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 3: a new game for him against his own military in effect, 186 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 3: and I think he doesn't really know what to do. 187 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 1: We're not going to find out untill it's already happened. Right. 188 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 1: We haven't seen him, at least unless that's changed since 189 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: I've been on the air. We haven't seen him since 190 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: this all began, since his statement on Saturday. And I 191 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: don't suspect he's going to be telegraphing his moves in advance. 192 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,319 Speaker 1: What do you think we'll see in the coming days. 193 00:09:58,240 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 3: I think that's right. I mean, I think he plays 194 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 3: his cards close to his chest. He did come out 195 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 3: Saturday morning said a lot of things that turned out 196 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 3: not to be true, that he was gonnas and lock 197 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 3: up Progoshin and throw away the key. So that wasn't 198 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 3: a great showing on Putin's part. And then you've seen, 199 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 3: you know, a kind of quasi public appearance of the 200 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 3: Minister of Defense Kiassimov. But you know, it's not clear 201 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 3: if that was videotaped before or sort of where he is, 202 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 3: So it's a bit odd. It would be a little 203 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 3: bit like September eleven happening in the US and President 204 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:29,199 Speaker 3: Bush is an undisclosed location for a week, and you 205 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 3: can just imagine what the public response would have been 206 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 3: to that. And that's a bit where Putin is at 207 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 3: the moment. He doesn't appear in the Kremlin. We don't 208 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 3: know if he's in Moscow. He probably is, you know, 209 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,359 Speaker 3: the sort of rumors that he went to Saint Petersburg 210 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 3: over the weekend and kind of fled the scene in 211 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 3: a way ironically Putin's sidekick, you know, Lukashenka in Bielarus, 212 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 3: who broke her the deal between Progosin and Putin. He 213 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 3: comes out looking fairly resolute and active. And Putin is 214 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 3: a guy who's you know, a peers clueless, and that's 215 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 3: going to be very costly for perhaps the public opinion, 216 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 3: but more importantly with figures within the Russian elite who 217 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 3: may start making their calculations about how to proceed without 218 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 3: who can you know, again, I wouldn't predict that for 219 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 3: tomorrow or next month on the horizon, but but. 220 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 1: Those conversations are happening right now, aren't they. 221 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 3: Definitely, No, definitely, I think that's the You know, if 222 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 3: you're in the Russian elite, now, what you don't want 223 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 3: is your neighbor to strike first and be the one 224 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,079 Speaker 3: who claims the throne. You have a certain incentive now 225 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,959 Speaker 3: to be the one who moves. And that's going to 226 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 3: be a very very you know, sort of interesting, dangerous, 227 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 3: kind of scary game that we played. I think as 228 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 3: people begin to circle a little bit around the position 229 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 3: of the Presidency of Russia on the assumption that Putin 230 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 3: may not be up to the job. You know, I 231 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 3: wouldn't want to exaggerate that Putin has lots of levers 232 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 3: of power. He's canny, he's a survivor, He's gonna through 233 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 3: everything he has. At this situation, he may just keep 234 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 3: on going. But people are going to look now for 235 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 3: that opening, and they're also going to look at their 236 00:11:58,280 --> 00:11:59,839 Speaker 3: neighbor looking at that opening and start to make the 237 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 3: calculations as well. So we should turn our attention to 238 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 3: the plays of William Shakespeare and figure out what they 239 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 3: may tell us about the king and the successors to 240 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:08,839 Speaker 3: the king. 241 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: You know, we're in trouble when the professor tells me 242 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: to read Shakespeare. What do our listeners need to know 243 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 1: about Alexander Lukashenko? He just mentioned him, the president of Belarus. 244 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 1: Who would have thought he would come to the rescue, 245 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: if I can use that term here? Did? He just 246 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: was the timing right. He gave Vladimir Putin an off 247 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: ramp when he needed one. 248 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 3: Yes, I mean, he's of course saving his own hide. 249 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 3: I mean, in the summer of twenty twenty there were 250 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 3: massive protests about a regged election in Bielarus and Lukashenka, 251 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 3: who's a dictator instead of has been for many years, 252 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:46,680 Speaker 3: sometimes referred to optimistically as Europe's last dictator. You know, 253 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 3: he cracked down in the summer of twenty twenty and 254 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 3: Putin came to his rescue then with resources and support. 255 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 3: And then Putin staged the war against Ukraine and part 256 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 3: from from Bielarus in February twenty twenty two. So they've 257 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 3: been pretty closely tied together in terms of the war effort, 258 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 3: and I guess they just go back and forth. When 259 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 3: they experienced moments of weakness, the other one comes in 260 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 3: amazing and tries to prop up the whole system. And 261 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 3: that's kind of worked. But you know, Lukashanksa doesn't look 262 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 3: like he's in great health. You know who knows how 263 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 3: much genuine popular support he has. And you know, this 264 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 3: game is you can't play it forever. You know, if 265 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 3: only for biological reasons, you can't play it forever. But 266 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 3: now it becomes increasingly clear that for political reasons, there's 267 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 3: going to be an end to all of this, and 268 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 3: it's probably be a very ugly one. 269 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 1: Good Lord, you need to come back and finish that thought. Professor, 270 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: thank you for joining us. Michael Keimmige, professor and he's 271 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 1: a chair of the History Department of Catholic University, having 272 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 1: worked at the State Department, involved in Russia and Ukraine 273 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: policy planning in a perfect voice for this time as 274 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 1: we try to understand what it means for both Russia 275 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: and Ukraine, never mind Europe. Thanks for listening to the 276 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: Sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, 277 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: at Apple's Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 278 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, 279 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 1: DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.