WEBVTT - Bloomberg Markets Special Simulcast Day Two 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanebeck. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.600 plus technology, politics, economics, all furnishing the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.600 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:23.200 download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.120 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:31.600 YouTube search Bloomberg Clomber News. We want to get right 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:34.240 onto our first guest here, Michelle Schneider. She's managing director 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:36.519 of the Market Gauge Group. She's also the author of 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:39.040 the best selling book Plant Your Money Tree, A Guide 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:43.560 to Growing your Wealth. Uh, Michelle, Tim keeps reminding me 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.400 that we're sitting on like twenty plus percent gains percentage 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:48.600 gains here in the markets here. How do you grow 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:50.680 that going into next year? Do you have confidence here 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:52.920 that some of the gains that we saw this year 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:57.160 that that's going to persist in Well, what's so interesting 0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:59.280 about this coming year is that we have a lot 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:03.040 more question and essence about what's going to happen versus 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:06.679 when we were going from one, we knew we were 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.319 having a change of administration, but we knew that the 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:12.440 federal Reserve, for example, was going to stay accommodative. And now, 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:16.240 of course going into two, we know that's changing a bit. 0:01:16.760 --> 0:01:19.520 And so we also know that we have an infrastructure 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:23.319 program coming up and the possibility of more government spending, 0:01:23.319 --> 0:01:26.080 and there's also still the unknown of haw far inflation 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:29.679 will continue. So when you put that all together, really 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:32.240 it looks like what the market is playing out here 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:36.240 is a scenario where as we see big tech can 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:39.200 continue to lead, although it's come off today, but we 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:42.360 have a situation where small caps, which are the Russell 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:48.160 to thousand literally have gone sideways. From February one to date, 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:51.000 they have traded between If we look at our WM 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:53.240 two oh seven and two thirty four, there was one 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:56.600 brief flip above two thirty four in November. And what's 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.920 that saying is that even though transportation is now out 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.880 pacing it, we're still looking at the potential of not 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:06.680 much growth in the industrial manufacturing sector, which we desperately 0:02:06.720 --> 0:02:09.640 need to continue to grow g d P. Okay, So Michelle, 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:11.639 let's take this one step further and talk a little 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:13.600 bit about what our audience wants to know in terms 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:17.400 of where they should allocate their portfolio in give us 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:20.839 some of your picks for the year. Well, for one thing, 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:23.920 it was really very bullish right now in oil, and 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:26.720 I think if oil goes up, as it seems like 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:30.280 it will, we also then can look at alternative energy. 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:33.760 There is definitely a correlation between electric vehicles, which have 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:36.000 been strong, but if you look at the whole old 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:39.400 energy space compared to oil, it's still relatively weak. If 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:42.440 oil goes up, then there will be more interest I 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:46.120 think in ets like tan or p BW. We also 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:49.440 are looking at Mountain Pass just in terms of rare 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:54.320 earth minerals as something that could potentially double in So 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:58.120 that's one big area for us. Another is obviously at 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:01.280 some point this whole pandemic thing has to at least 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:04.640 be absorbed where normalcy comes back, and that leaves a 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:08.400 lot of opportunity in travel and leisure, some chain restaurants, 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:11.760 and then if inflation takes whole, we're looking at consumer 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:14.440 staples which have already gone up and made a new 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.880 all time high, but particularly companies that have pricing power, 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:22.160 things like medical devices, some of the high tech that 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:24.440 Cathy Wood looks at that have gotten beat up that 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:28.560 could also be somewhat immune to inflation. And then, uh, finally, 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:31.880 you know, we're still very interested here in the whole 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:36.400 medical space, but instead of the the whole healthcare the 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:39.480 way it was with XLV, we're looking more at medical 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:43.000 supplies like an intuitive surgical or I h I, which 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:45.360 is an E t F because those two are inflation. 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:47.920 And the last thing I'll say about it is precious 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:51.760 metals have been stagnant as well, and if inflation kicks in, 0:03:51.800 --> 0:03:54.440 which it still can, we could be a good year 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:57.480 for gold and silver. Michelle, you took the thought right 0:03:57.520 --> 0:03:59.280 out of my head. I want to really point out 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:00.800 to our viewers here you were one of the first 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:04.440 female traders on the New York Commodities Exchange, which makes 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:06.360 me really want to draw on your commandity's experience. You 0:04:06.360 --> 0:04:09.240 already discussed oil, but talked to us about gold in particular, 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:11.640 because since it hit that two thousand level in July, 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:15.240 it's kind of been hovering a really in kind of 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:17.239 a trading range a little bit of sideways. What helps 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:20.280 gold break out in the face of this very, very 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:23.600 long list of worries. Well, we know that gold is 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:27.200 definitely going to be reactive to any geopolitical concern and 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:30.640 at this point we don't really have anything strong happening, 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:34.160 but we do have the underpinnings of Russian Ukraine that 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:37.800 could always erupt. But besides that, we know it's an 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:41.640 inflationary factor, and that's where you have seen so many 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:45.279 people looking at inflation through cryptocurrency initially in the year, 0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:48.800 or through food commodities or industrial medals. But gold could 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:52.760 actually erupt if inflation gets to the point where people 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:55.800 think that it is much more out of control than 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:58.440 where a lot of people are saying now it has peaked. 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:01.600 So those two areas are eighteen hundred has been this 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:06.200 sort of transitional type of number to look at. We're 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.760 sitting right around eighteen hundreds. So if we can get 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:11.760 back up through eighteen forty, it's very possible that a 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:13.600 lot of people that have ignored it could come in 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:16.159 and really start buying. Well that's the hedge though, But 0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:18.880 that's the hedge if, of course, the FED doesn't do anything. 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:22.440 If the Fed actually does start to raise rates, normalize policy, 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:24.840 and do so aggressively. Does that take some of the 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:28.200 bloom off of the rose of gold Well? Yes, but 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:30.240 I don't think that's going to happen. First of all, 0:05:30.279 --> 0:05:32.120 they have to finish the taper, so we're looking at 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.000 about March, right, And then in terms of aggressive action 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:37.520 by the Fed, they have a big price to pay 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:40.400 if they get too aggressive. They really still think that 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:43.520 the whole inflation narrative is transitory. Maybe we're looking at 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:46.680 max a year out. So I don't think that they're 0:05:46.680 --> 0:05:49.960 going to do anything too aggressive until they wake up 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:52.400 one day and realize that things have gotten out of control. 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:54.200 And then of course they're going to put the kabash 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:57.120 on any economic growth that we've had, which is still 0:05:57.160 --> 0:06:02.880 also limping along. We really haven't had major growth, alright, Michelle, 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:06.560 A great stuff, Michelle Schneider. They're managing director of the 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:09.720 market Gage Group, helping us kick off the our simulcast here. 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:18.920 This is a special Bloomberg Markets coverage simulcast across our 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:22.560 Bloomberg TV, radio and YouTube platforms. Remain Bossi here alongside 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:25.320 Tim Stanovic and Krety Gupta taking a look right now 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:28.200 in the commodity space, watching settlement right now of nim 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:30.200 Ex scrude futures. We are going to settle higher year 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:32.840 for a fifth strade day, a pretty phenomenal run here, 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:36.560 about eleven h higher here over that five day stretcher 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:40.880 official settlement right now at SI SO five. That's the 0:06:40.920 --> 0:06:43.159 start of the new session for those folks watching this 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:46.239 on your screen. Natural gas futures over in Europe down 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:48.520 for a fifth strade day, down about three tents of 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:51.800 a percent. That's the smallest decline over that five day stretch. 0:06:51.839 --> 0:06:54.960 Your gold futures pulling back slightly, basically called it unchanged. 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:56.960 And you guys remember when used to talk about lumber 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:59.080 all the time. I remember you had that phenomenal run 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:01.800 up in lumber. Future is back in where it doubled, 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:03.719 and then we started off this year. The first four 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:05.760 months you had a doubling of that doubling, and then 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:07.919 of course it's kind of cratered. But look at this 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:11.600 back above eleven hundred bucks upper a thousand uh board 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:14.120 feet here, up four percent here on the day, now 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:16.800 up for a fourth straight day, creaty well off the high. 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.000 As of course, we were up around seventeen earlier this year. 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:20.480 But I think back, you know, a year and a 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:22.920 half or so ago, we were something like three hundred 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:25.960 bucks UH per board feet remain. It's interesting that you 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:28.200 bring in lumber because that's exactly where I want to 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:31.320 go with our next conversation. Timberland our cultural land. There 0:07:31.400 --> 0:07:34.240 is no shortage of land. It is in demand upon 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.400 not intended and thanks to that commodities and inflation really 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:39.600 driving it. I want to bring in our next US 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:43.800 Jason Walter, National Land Realty CEO and founder. Jason, thank 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:46.239 you so much for joining us. Let's really talk about 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:49.880 that lumber picture. Timberland in particular is really important when 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:51.920 it comes to just the commodity rises that you've seen, 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:57.240 not only this year. What does that look like, Well, 0:07:57.280 --> 0:07:59.200 we just see we see it continue to go up. 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:01.560 The stuff in prices is finally caught up for the 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:06.320 lumber prices to an extent, and we see that continuing 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:10.040 especially for the first half of how much of when 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:12.560 we talk about the distortions that we saw earlier this year, 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:16.240 particularly that variants that we saw in stompage prices UH 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:18.400 and in the futures market here, how much of that 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:22.000 was specifically driven by the housing market, and how much 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:26.640 of that was driven maybe just by speculators, Well, a 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:28.720 lot of it was driven just by control and supply. 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:31.080 You know, a lot of the a lot of the 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:34.800 sawmills and timber companies controlled the supply of starting four 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:37.640 or five years ago, and so that that's really what 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:40.200 drove it up. The housing market just put fuel on fired. 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:42.760 But things are starting to settle out a little bit 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:45.559 more than even out across the markets. Okay, when you 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:47.480 say things are starting to settle out and even out 0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:49.960 across the markets, what's the time frame that you're giving. 0:08:50.000 --> 0:08:52.880 The timeline line that you're giving here for perhaps a 0:08:52.960 --> 0:09:00.560 cycle top, we're looking at it topping out in second quarter. Um. 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:02.800 You know, part of the issue you have is just 0:09:02.840 --> 0:09:05.800 supply across the board. I mean, it's it's getting harder 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:10.560 and harder to find land. Um, and so it's that 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:14.720 that's going to become an issue. The latter part of Jason, 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:17.240 how does this viewed, say abroad, for someone who's looking 0:09:17.280 --> 0:09:21.199 at making perhaps a hedge against inflation, is land somewhere 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:23.800 where they could possibly look to that to do that 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:28.560 in the long term, Yeah, I mean, it's historically outperformed 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:32.840 everything even even twice as much as gold. So I mean, 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.640 there isn't a better place to put your money in 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:40.040 inflationary period, especially in the commodity driven timberland, agg land, 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:45.880 recreational land. So we've we've just seen incredible numbers. I 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:49.040 do think in two you know, I get asked every day, 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.080 when is this market going to slow down? I don't 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:54.040 think demand will slow down, but supply is going to 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:57.400 become a real issue. Um, it's already becoming an issue. 0:09:57.440 --> 0:10:00.120 There's just there's only so much land to sell, and 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:03.320 and it's becoming the prices they're just getting outrageous, and 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:05.480 there's so much competition there. I mean, we've talked to 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:08.040 a lot of wealth managers who talk about this idea 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:10.800 of looking at real estate, whether it's as a hedge, 0:10:10.800 --> 0:10:14.080 but more importantly just as an alternative form of earning 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:17.120 a little bit of interest in capital? Here? How do 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.319 you make the assessments? So, and I'm looking at it 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:21.640 more from the perspective of just kind of the rank 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:24.840 and file investors, maybe those who aren't experienced in real estate. 0:10:25.080 --> 0:10:26.800 I mean, what are they looking at? What do they 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:29.360 use to sort of make an assessment of not just 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:34.560 what's available, but what could potentially be profitable. Well, a 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:37.240 lot of a lot of our clients are driven by use. 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:39.960 I mean there that's what we call recreational and they're 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:42.520 they're looking to build a house on one day, but 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:45.080 they're hunting on it, they're fishing on it, they're using 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:50.199 it for recreational lotions probably of our clientele. UM as 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:54.400 far as the pure timber and egg investors, Uh, there's 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.960 not a lot of middle ground there. You're either a 0:10:56.960 --> 0:11:01.120 sophisticated investor or or you're not. UM. There's there's not 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:03.319 a lot of It's not like the stock market where 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:05.439 you can just kind of puddle in it. It's a 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.520 big part of the narrative that emerged over the last 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:09.720 let's say, twenty twenty two months as we've been in 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:13.080 this pandemic has been the idea of families searching for 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:16.000 more land, more space so they can do stuff outside 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:18.760 rather than be together inside. Do you see this as 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:20.960 a permanent shift or or something that when we do 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.160 finally get to the other side of this pandemic, we'll 0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:24.800 see prices kind of go down a little bit and 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:28.800 demand go down a little bit. I do think, I 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:33.800 mean it's settled out in the beginning, you know, April May, 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:35.600 and you had people kind of going to one extreme. 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.040 They want to move from a neighborhood to earning a 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.800 hundred acres of alien, you know, sixty miles out of town. 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:44.240 And we've seen that kind of uh settle out into 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:46.800 Instead of moving from a neighborhood in an urban area 0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:50.880 to sixty miles out, they might buy ten or fifteen 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:55.200 acres um and we've seen a lot of that. So 0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:58.240 it's like it's anything else. You have extremes in the 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.280 early stages and then things settled down. But I do 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:04.359 believe you'll see people have just gotten used to isolation 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.520 a little bit and and some people really enjoyed it. 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:10.000 Jason Walter, National Land Realty CEO and founder, We're gonna 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:11.920 have to leave it there. Thanks so much for joining us. 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:22.680 Really appreciate you taking the time. This is Special Markets 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:25.960 coverage simulcast on Bloomberg TV Radio and on YouTube. I'm 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.160 Tim Stanevik along with Creedy Gupta and Romaine Bostick. The 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.760 other big headline out there right now is Apple apparently 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:34.319 paying out bonuses of a hundred eighty thousand dollars to 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:37.280 retain engineering talent. The man who broke that story, Mark German, 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:39.559 joining us right now. Mark. This isn't just a hundred 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:42.880 eighty thousand dollars in cash, is it? No? Not in cash. 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:45.400 These are in r s U so restricted stock units. 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:47.240 So the way it works is they'll give these grants 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:49.880 out in January, so about a month from now, and 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.680 they will vest every year annually for four years. So 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:56.160 that eight divided by four. There's some people reporting under 0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:59.079 fifty thousand, some people in the sixties, eighties, and nineties. 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:02.719 It's really a long range between that, about fifte eighty. 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:06.000 And these are going out to individual contributors, so people 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:09.640 without direct reports. In many cases, these are individual engineers 0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:13.640 working on products like Apple's upcoming mixed reality headset, working 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:16.640 on silicon engineering the chips that now power the Mac, 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:20.040 the iPhone, iPad and all of Apple's devices. A small 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:24.199 stepset is also going to software engineering. Uh, individual contributors 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:27.200 as well as people in the operations department. Uh. You know, 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:30.199 these bonuses are out of cycle. These are are random 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:33.480 and unusual. In many cases, people receive them and we're 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:36.440 taking a back surprise. These are not part of the 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.720 normal compensation packages. This is not something that I believe 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:42.760 Apple has done before. And this is really an effort 0:13:42.800 --> 0:13:46.920 to retain key talent. Apple is, you know, losing talent 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.400 right now. There are people more than the usual number 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.320 of people leaving. People don't want to eventually return to 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:55.160 the office. There's other companies like Meta, Google who are 0:13:55.200 --> 0:13:57.880 going to be more lax about their office return you know, 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:01.000 policies in the middle of next year. Uh. Meta is 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.959 paying out base salaries that in many cases are much 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:06.560 higher than the base salaries that Apple and others are 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:10.479 paying out, and they have been aggressively recruiting Apple engineers 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.559 given their shift to hardware in the so called metaverse. 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:15.600 So this is an effort to sort of stop that 0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:18.600 and retain the key people that push out these products 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:21.560 and are really court developing the Apple devices on an 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.600 annual basis. Yeah, Mark, you've reported on defections from Apple 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.360 self driving car team in recent months as well as 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.360 this most recent news. Of course, I'm wondering if this 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:32.320 is gonna be enough to get people to stay at 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.440 the company, because you did say that there are higher salaries, 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:38.880 higher base salaries that companies like Meta for example. Yeah, 0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:41.200 So the hope for for Apple at least the management 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:44.160 giving out these RSU stock bonuses that that that this 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.520 will offset some of the recruiting being done at least 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:50.280 for a period of time from Meta and other companies. 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:53.160 I mean, a hundred thousand, two hundred eighty thousand, fifty 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:54.800 thousand is even a lot of money, and in many 0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:57.760 cases that could help, you know, match or or offset 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:00.520 the higher base salaries that Meta is offering. And if 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:02.960 you look at Apple stock, obviously they're nearing that three 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:06.080 trillion dollar threshold. These RSU bonuses are only going to 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:10.040 become more valuable as Apple's stock continues to rise. Obviously, 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:11.920 some of the price targets we're seeing is that there 0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:14.920 will be a rise in Apple stock price. These hundred k, 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.600 hundred eight k, fifty k, you know, r s U 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:19.920 s could you know eventually at some point be worth 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.480 double than they are today. Mark talked to us about 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:24.960 the other ways that Apple can actually pay its employees. 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:27.240 We're talking about time off, We're talking about perhaps working 0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:29.880 from home, will more flex schedule. Where does that kind 0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:31.960 of fit into all this in a market that is 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:34.000 very hot when it comes to finding a job right now, 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:36.200 and a market where a lot of other big tech names. 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:40.280 I'm thinking Amazon are dealing with unionization for example. Yeah, 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:42.840 for decades. You know, the perks that Apple has offered 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:46.880 employees in many cases, uh, you know, are not as 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:50.640 substantial as you might see from Meta, from Meta or Google. 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:55.000 Steve Jobs liked to to frequently say, obviously ten plus 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:57.480 years ago that you have to buy your own lunch 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:01.680 at Apple, right, whereas Google and Meta are companies that 0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:03.920 you know, provide free lunch. I know that's a simple thing, 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.560 but you know that's important to you know, a lot 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:09.960 of the engineering talent um. But in terms of the 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:12.280 normal parks that you're going to expect from a company 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:16.720 for on K, vacation, health benefits, obviously, these RSU bonuses 0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.520 are you know, higher in many cases that these other 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:23.120 companies are. So Apple in terms of employee benefits is 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:26.920 is extremely a generous even down to their retail employees. 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:29.800 If you recall during the height of the COVID nineteen pandemic, 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.560 when all of the Apple retail sorts globally were shut 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.480 for several months, those employees were still being paid and 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:37.720 they were able to work from home as customer service 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:40.400 agents and for online sales. So they have been fairly 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.680 good to their employees. But employees are also, you know, 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:45.920 at the same time, not happy with the company, not 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:48.680 happy with some leadership or the management. They have been 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:51.400 feeling underpaid on base salaries compared to META when they're 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.800 seeing some of their coworkers get offered these gigantic pay packages. 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:58.440 You're also seeing uh employee concerned about return to office 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:00.240 plans and having to work in the office us if 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:03.200 you're a hardware engineer during this variant, right, they're expecting 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:05.400 hardware engineers to be back in the office either four 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:09.119 days per week or full time with the headline sometime 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.080 mid next year, they're saying it today, not yet to 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.880 be determined, but they're aiming for bidden next year. You're 0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:15.879 seeing all employees needed to be in the office at 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:18.120 least three days per week, whereas you see other companies 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:20.080 that are going to be going fully remote for many 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:22.600 of those roles. So what we're seeing is a sea 0:17:22.640 --> 0:17:24.320 change or Apple may need to up some of its 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:27.600 benefits in addition to this money to retain their top engineers. 0:17:28.080 --> 0:17:30.119 A great scoop today really give us some insight and 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:33.879 to the talent war out there in California and beyond. 0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:36.600 I guess across the tech sector here, Mark German as 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:38.600 always all over it. We'll catch up with him soon, 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:40.560 I'm sure. Of course he talks about those R s 0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:41.760 U s and what it can mean if the stock 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:43.880 goes up. It's down today. We're still on that. Of course, 0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:46.399 we'll watch for that three chillion dollar market cap. And 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:48.400 as he pointed out to him and creaty uh, you're 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:50.840 basically every analyst in the street thinks this stock is 0:17:50.880 --> 0:18:00.160 going higher next year. This is Bloomberg Markets especial Sill 0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:03.480 Markets coverage, our global simulcast today, joined right now by 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:06.879 Tim Stenovic and pretty goodime Romaine Bostick here counting you 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:08.520 down to the close, just about eleven and a half 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:10.440 minutes left to go out here in the trading day, 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:13.640 SMP five hundred flat on the day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:16.200 which of course yesterday closed at a record high, down 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:18.639 a little bit today by about seven tents of her percent. 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:22.000 Airlines rebounding pretty nicely from yesterday's so off of about 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:25.080 one point seven percent. Retail stocks also higher, and keep 0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:27.359 an eye on the Arc Innovation et F Cathy Woods, 0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:30.119 a flagship fund here down about one percent here on 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:32.040 the day down for a second straight day. But you 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.080 go back to the beginning of the year, guys, this 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:36.000 outperformed the market. I mean it was up something like 0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:39.720 twenty percent, outperforming the SMP by like twenty percentage points. 0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:41.560 As of right now, it's heading into the end of 0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:44.679 the year trailing the SMP five hundred by something like 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:47.600 fifty percentage points. If you can believe that, it's remarkable 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:50.040 and it raises the question, you know, and Cathy Wood 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.360 will defend this over and over again her five year 0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:54.080 time horizon. She was out just a couple of weeks 0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:56.359 ago talking about how well the fund is gonna do 0:18:57.080 --> 0:19:00.119 two and she got some heat for it, but was 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:02.199 and a nonomally for the fund. I think that you 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.080 have people. I think it's a fair question to ask. 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:06.000 I mean, it's a high beta tech play. At the 0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:08.080 end of the day, right this isn't something that is 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:11.639 really going to be specific to alone. It's something that 0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:13.760 you're going to start to see more funds drop into, 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:15.800 not just here in the States, but around the world 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:18.520 as people really see that defensive bid, whether that's now 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:20.560 or where that's in five years in the face of 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:23.119 decelerating growth and in fairness to Kathy would I mean, 0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:24.879 she has made it clear that you know, she is 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:27.280 I guess, for lack of a better we're kind of 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:29.480 a moonshot type of person, that this is more than 0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:32.240 just about short term gains here, that she's making bets 0:19:32.280 --> 0:19:35.159 on some big structural changes in our society and more 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:38.200 importantly in technology. All right, let's talk about the broader 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:40.240 market here and bring in uh a friend of the 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:42.720 show here, Katie Nixon, chief investment officer over at Northern 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:45.440 Trust Wealth Management, joining the program now as we count 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:47.520 you down to the close here on this Tuesday afternoon, 0:19:47.800 --> 0:19:50.080 just about ten minutes ago. And Katie, you know, we're 0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.679 pretty much wrapping up the year here. Whatever gains we 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.040 we lock in over the last few days here a 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:57.360 sort of immaterial to I guess the narrative that we've 0:19:57.400 --> 0:19:59.800