WEBVTT - China, Ukraine, And Markets (Podcast) 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.520 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's go right to 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:25.360 our next guest, Hans Dal, CEO of the Mitchell Madison Group. 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:27.160 I want to talk to him because he had some 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:31.000 weaker than expected, much weaker than expected economic data come 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:34.080 out of China overnight, and that's kind of spooky markets 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:36.159 a little bit. So so let's talk to somebody who 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:37.960 kind of doves this stuff. But here. So he's the 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:41.920 see of Mitchell Madison Group. But here's the scam. Jackson Wyoming. 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:46.239 You were doing the remote thing, Hans, before it was 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:49.080 the cool thing to do. How are you working this 0:00:49.159 --> 0:00:51.080 scam to be working from Jackson Way. I mean, that's 0:00:51.120 --> 0:00:53.440 the first question. You know that the truth of this 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:56.360 even worse. I split my time between Jackson Hole and Mala, 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:59.240 who I just got back. You're killing us. It is 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:02.000 even worse, all right, Well, the good stuff is Matt 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:04.840 he has got his undergraduate from the University of Michigan. 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:08.520 You'll be having but even more impressive for me NBA 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:10.479 from the Tux School. The Touch School is such an 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:13.840 awesome school, a Dartmouth dart meth for for the NBA program, 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:15.880 and that all the Tux that I know are really 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:19.160 smart and they're super duper loyal to their school for 0:01:19.200 --> 0:01:21.640 some unknown reason. It's what's going on in China here 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:24.480 this data, I mean, it just seems they've got some 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:27.199 challenges over there. What do you make of it? Well, 0:01:27.240 --> 0:01:29.160 I think what's going on in China is just the 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:34.320 result of COVID lockdowns. That's insane. Zero COVID policy has 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:37.400 taken a text obviously we've all seen that. But it's 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:40.840 also a significant wealth effect from the property crash, right, 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:44.080 I mean, if the population has been it's highly leveraged, 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:47.360 it's invested in property, it's not going well. That is 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.200 of course going to put a crimp on spending. And 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:52.520 I think in the medium to longer term you will 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:54.840 see an impact of the writing interest rates in the 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:57.920 West that would just simply have the normal micro economy 0:01:57.960 --> 0:02:01.720 in macro economic impact that always pass slowing demand, and 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.400 it's going to slow down. The problem with China is 0:02:04.440 --> 0:02:08.160 that their populations at its Factson depends highly on growth, right, 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:10.560 So they're in a bit of the trouble. So what 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:12.320 does that mean though for us? What does it mean 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:19.560 for you Jackson Wyoming? I mean I saw I saw 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:22.680 a headline that said no one is immune, um JP 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:25.359 Morgan says, and I thought, wow, they're really playing this 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:28.600 a little bit dramatic. And then this morning, you know, 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:31.880 everybody was it's all in the Asia focus, and of 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:34.760 course it was our top headline. But we're only off, 0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:38.520 you know, thirteen points on the SMP five. Is it 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:43.360 really that important to markets in the US? Hard to say. 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:47.000 I mean, it's it's you mentioned Dartmouth, right, NBA. It 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.440 was really interesting. This whole thing reminds me a little 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:53.480 bit of Japan in the late eighties and nineties and 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:56.280 even the nineties. I remember going to class and listening 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:59.880 to professors, you know, telling us how the Japanese SYS 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:03.440 more government direction might be superior. And then the next 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:06.160 class you would learn about the pre market micro economics 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:08.440 the normal way. If you pointed out that the trichotomy, 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:12.040 that they just be like well maybe that's a different class, right. 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:15.480 So I think what's going on is is economic reality, 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:20.000 the Western system, free calcitualism is right. China is not 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:26.360 playing the game correctly. They have tremendous problems with demography. 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:28.679 I think they are going to be a long term 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:32.960 declining power, right, and we're gonna have to deal with that, right, 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:37.440 I think would be very very dangerous. Declining powers are unstable, 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:42.520 they do crazy things. Yeah, you see it in While, 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:44.160 you see it in Ukraine, you see it. You could 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:46.240 see in Taiwan, which would be much more of a problem. 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:50.840 China obviously much bigger, much more interdependent, and I don't 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:54.360 know if we can as business people count on you know, 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:56.880 government solved this problem. So I think what I see 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:58.480 and what I what I would do, And this is 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:02.200 my background. Supply team manage man is advising corporations that 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:05.400 what they have done the last twenty thirty years getting 0:04:05.400 --> 0:04:08.080 it to China has to be done in some way 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:12.120 going backwards, because really bad stuff could happen, right, and 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:15.160 when really bad stuff could happen, it's a game of 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:18.839 musical chairs. And there's not enough industrial capacity on the 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:23.239 planet to replace China. For everybody at the same time quickly. 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:27.679 And when you look at the biggest US manufacturers, Um, 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:30.200 is it scary? Are too are too many of them? 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:34.640 Too deep in? I think so? I think overall, I 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:38.600 think overall it is um it's too much, right, I mean, 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:40.680 you can't you can't replace China with something else in 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:43.359 the in the short term, It's not possible, right. So, 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:46.160 but that's also on the it's also a good news 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.440 story in some ways because if there's you know, a 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:52.200 great degree of mutual dependency creates polygo stability, right So, 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:55.320 I for example, I envisioned that when Biden talks to 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:58.400 z they're going to talk about removing parraffs, right mean, 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:01.200 Biden needs it for use and play, and China it's 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:02.760 just for growth. And they're going to think about this 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.200 Taiwan thing. That's kind of where I wanted to go. 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:07.920 H Hans. I mean President gy and President Biden are 0:05:07.920 --> 0:05:10.719 set to meet later this year. That seems like a 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:14.000 big deal to me at least. What would you like 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:16.839 to see on the agenda on the table for a 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:21.240 discussion that maybe we could actually get something done. Yeah, 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:22.480 I think, like I said, I think it's in a 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:26.000 mutual interest to get better trade relations going, and I 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:28.320 think they're going to do something on the tarifor front. 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:30.760 I'm pretty sure about that. I mean, it's it's in 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:33.960 everybody's best interest, right. It will certainly have a short 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:37.720 term positive impact on US inflation, which is critical, and 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:41.960 I also wonder what kind of impact we'll have on China. 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:44.760 You know, we spoke with the Chinese econost this morning, 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:48.279 who seemed very worried that, you know, Europeans and Americans 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:50.679 would stop buying their goods or not buy their goods 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:53.599 as much, and that's a big problem for them. I 0:05:53.640 --> 0:05:56.799 can't imagine that people will always always go for price, 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:58.960 and most people don't even know what's meet in China, 0:05:59.320 --> 0:06:01.240 so I find that a little bit hard to believe. Well, No, 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:03.560 the idea was that if we go into a recession, 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:07.040 we just won't have the you know, the purchasing power 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:09.680 to to keep up the kind of consumerism that we've 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:12.200 been practicing. No, I think that, Like I said that, 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:13.960 I think that's going to happen. I think that's part 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:15.760 of the reason why China might be slowing down. But 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:17.720 I don't think that we're going to follow up the 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:20.440 cliff here in the West in the US. All right, Hans, 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.520 great stuff. Really appreciate getting your perspective there, Hans dal 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:29.960 See of the Mitchell Madison Group. Kind of red and 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:31.920 green on the screen here to market, not sure what 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:34.320 it wants to do here. We've obviously had that big 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:37.760 move off the bottom after that brutal first half of 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:39.960 the year for both socks and bonds. A lot of 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:43.279 folks de scratching their heads saying, okay, now what want's 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:46.200 check in with Jay Hatfield, CEO, founder and portfolio manager 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:52.599 of the Infrastructure Capital Advisors. Jay, Now, what, good morning, 0:06:52.600 --> 0:06:55.200 Thanks for having me back on Well, it's a little 0:06:55.200 --> 0:07:01.560 bit complicated. We had been constructive on stocks editing into earnings, 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:06.800 and we were correct that earnings are relatively strong compared 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:10.840 to expectations. And we do think the economy is relatively 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:15.880 strong because of pandemic tail winds, but the negatives are 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:20.760 an erratic fed We think that two target is arbitrary 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:23.880 and way too low, so they're going to pursue that 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:27.960 to percent target. They tend to focus on backward looking 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:33.680 indicators like employment and CPI, whereas they should be looking 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:37.640 at the money supply, which is down and already this 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:41.880 year and then finally the other negatives were headed into September, 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:46.520 which is typically a terrible month for stocks, lack of 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:50.480 information about earnings, and then you have a closing of 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:56.360 the buy back window. So we're we're relatively neutral to 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:59.680 cautious on stocks here after this big run. But you 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.040 think so j just to go back to the beginning, 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:05.520 you don't have a negative outlook on the economy. You 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:09.000 think the US economy, even after two quarters of contraction, 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:12.640 is still in a pretty strong place. Yeah. The key 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:15.520 facts there if you look back at the eleven post 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:18.600 World War Two recessions, they all had a crash in 0:08:18.720 --> 0:08:23.800 housing and autos. But we have a pandemic recovery tail 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:28.720 winds in that we're record low housing inventories one point 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:34.679 two million units versus normal two seven thousand new cars 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:38.160 versus a million, So the chances of mass layoffs in 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:41.560 those cyclical sectors or zero. And then you have strong 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:45.320 employment because we're moving from goods which you're mostly made 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:48.760 overseas to services which are all provided in the US 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:53.800 and labor intensive. It's a strong job market and the 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:59.400 normal sectors that crack all time lows for inventories, we 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:02.360 do see talked about the economy. We do see what 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.560 looks like some real weakness in the tech sector, and 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:08.679 I don't know if that's because they you know, overhired 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.320 um last year at the beginning of this year, but 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:15.560 there you know, some of the biggest companies are cutting 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:20.520 by some of the growthier for off of yer companies cutting, 0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:23.520 a lot of them are doing hiring freezes. Is this 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:27.839 just a sector specific issue, we think so. What is 0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:33.720 obviously entirely unique about this cycle is the pandemic. So 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:38.200 during the pandemic, those are the big beneficiaries. But of 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:43.240 course UM services was getting smashed, so you're just seeing 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:46.160 a rotation from those goods producing companies. And also they 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:49.920 have exposure to foreign currency. You know, keep in mind, 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:52.200 almost no one focuses on the fact that the set 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:55.960 is already reduced the monetary base or money supply by 0:09:56.000 --> 0:10:00.400 fifteen percent this year, which is the biggest decline since 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:03.920 the Great Depression. That's caused a dollar to skyrocket. So 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:07.840 that's going to make those large cap exporters earnings weaker. 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:10.280 But if you look, they're not really doing mass layoffs, 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:12.480 are just hiring at a slower pace, So that's not 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:15.560 enough to derail the US economy. Jay, You've had a 0:10:15.600 --> 0:10:19.079 long and varied career on wall straight by side, sell side, 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:21.880 wanted it. The industries that you've really focused on has 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:25.240 been energy, global power, more in Stanley and so on. 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:28.000 You know, what we're really starting to understand here is 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:30.560 we've got oil pulling back yet again now were and 0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:33.440 change on w T I CRWEDE. It just seems like 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:35.600 the supplying to demand are kind of out of whack. 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:38.320 You know, as we make this transition to green energy, 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:44.920 there's still a big demand for traditional energy fossil fuels 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.520 and are good friends in Europe. Boy, they're gonna have 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:51.000 a tough winter. How do you think about this economy 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:54.280 and how it's trying to manage the transition from fossil 0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:58.280 fuels to green fuels. Seems like there's gonna be some 0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:01.840 problems there. Well, I think we've made a massive mistake 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:07.120 by not recognizing that natural gas is a very clean fuel. 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:12.080 It's the only efficient way to transport hydrogen because pure 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:14.920 hydrogen you have to cool to negative for hundred fifty 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:19.080 one degrees fahrenheit to transport it, whereas natural gas is 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:23.360 to only two fifty. So the Europeans blew the energy 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:27.760 transition by not procuring enough natural gas, which then allows 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:31.120 you to shut down coal. In the US, we the 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:33.560 free market did that. That's why we're the leader in 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:37.440 the world for reducing carbon not because of any policy 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:39.880 coming from the government, but just because the economics of 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:44.839 having excess natural gas. So but to your point, the 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:49.120 we're relatively constructive on the oil market. We're still projecting, 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:54.079 but the key factor to watch is European natural gas prices. 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.880 They're trading at the equivalent of four dollars a barrel 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:00.720 of oil and a btu basis, So that's a huge 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:04.480 support for the market. And these China blips are usually temporary. 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:08.199 They're pretty sticky demand in China, right, Yeah, it's interesting 0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:09.760 to see how this plays that And again we'll be 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:11.800 focusing on Europe this winter. It seems like it's going 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:14.199 to be a big challenge for them. Jay half Fields, CEO, 0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:18.600 founder and portfolio manager at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, giving us 0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:24.280 his thoughts on these markets. Matt, our next guest you 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:26.360 and we struggle with English, which is a challenge because 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:28.839 we speak for living, but our next guest speaks English 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.400 and Hebrew. Okay, I get that. Then Russian and Ukrainian 0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:36.320 I'm like, who really cares about that? But now that 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:40.480 is absolutely front and center. Dr Ariol Cohen, Senior Fellow 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:43.400 for the Atlantic Council the Eurasia Center. Dr Cohen, thanks 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:47.240 so much for joining us here. You know, I guess 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:50.439 we'd love to get an update on what you think 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:53.120 the current status is in Ukraine. But what I'd really 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:56.559 love to get is why did Putin do this? It 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.640 just seems like a monstrous miscalculation here, but I'd love 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:03.720 to get your perspective. The dean of my alma matter, 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:08.719 the Fletcher School of Loyal Diplomacy, former Dean adimiral Stavridian's 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:15.680 former Supremah Yeah, former Suprema UH Allied commander NATO said 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.920 that Putty realizes that he made a mistake. I meant 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:22.440 putting ten times. So this is kind of a guy 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:25.800 who will never admit that he made a mistake. Whether 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:29.000 he realizes he made a mistake or not. There's some 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:33.600 indications he may be realizing it, but he is desperate 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:38.520 to say face. He's not going to give Ukrainians any quarter. 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:45.520 So one would hope that we can extricate ourselves out 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:50.000 of this horrible war in a few months. But for 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:55.760 that Ukrainians need to deliver the Russians more blows, especially 0:13:55.840 --> 0:14:00.319 in the south when where they are using the Western 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:04.719 supplied long range range rockets to disrupt the Russian logistics 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:09.040 and they're destroying methodically the key bridges. So if the 0:14:09.080 --> 0:14:12.880 Russian troops are, for example, on the left bank of 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:16.200 the right bank of the NAPER, they would pull out, 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:21.120 possibly because they don't want to stuck there with other bridges. UM. 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:26.760 So the logistics is extremely important in the war UH. 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:30.680 And there's another dimension that I'm very worried about, and 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:35.880 that's the nuclear power stations. Remember, Ukraine is producing of 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:43.320 its electricity through nuclear um contributing less to global emissions 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:47.520 than many other countries. But the Russians and the Ukrainians 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:52.680 of bombarding some of these UM stations, including the huge 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:59.080 uh power station and Zapariga four reactors four units. And 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:03.320 the last thing we need is one of these reactors 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:07.520 to be punctured by a show and have a radioactive 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:12.360 emissions there. So God forbid, you know something like ser no, 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:14.800 we don't want that. So Dr Cohen, I would you know, 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:19.040 initially I would think um for the whole conflict there 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:24.080 should be some back channel way to communicate UM with 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:28.040 Vladimir Putin, figure out a solution. Even if you can't 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:30.120 get them to pull completely out of Ukraine, maybe you 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:34.040 can say, hey, let's all avoid these nuclear power plants. 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:38.800 But then I wonder, how does the chain of command, 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:41.600 How well does the chain of command actually work, how 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:45.720 strong is the link, how how um efficient is communication? 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:49.240 Or are these units on the ground really just operating 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:52.400 on their own In a sense, I don't think they're 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:56.560 operating on their own. The Russian military is extremely centralized. 0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:02.800 Who is less centralized actually are the Ukrainians. But what 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.960 we've seen is that the Russians cut a deal with 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:09.720 the Turks and with Ukraine, and they are going to 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:13.680 allow the grain to flow out of Ukraine, out of 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:17.360 the port of Odessa on the Black Sea. UM to 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:21.120 the world market's very important, So we don't contribute to 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:25.400 or the conflict doesn't contribute two people starving in Africa 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:28.920 or something like that. And the next day the Russian 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.920 military is delivering a rocket strike on the part of Odessa. 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:37.560 So questions were raised about that, uh, and then it stopped. 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:43.440 So hopefully the command and controlled chain in Russia is 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:48.280 still intact. However, Uh, you raised the very important question, 0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:52.320 and that is who is communicating with the Russians. And 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:57.800 we saw recently that Russia said that Switzerland is not 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:03.480 going to be the go between because Switzerland imposed sanctions 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:08.000 on Russia and therefore the Russian said they're not impartial. 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:13.320 So having a channel of communication, it is important, having 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:17.520 people who could go back and force, like the late 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:25.760 Great German foreign minister uh Gensher. I think it's from 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:32.320 ye Han has so Dr Coleman, what yeah, go ahead? 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:35.320 So I guess the question is how strong is the 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:39.400 support within Russia for Putin and this war? I think 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:42.440 about just our country here. When the dead bodies start 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:46.920 coming back, that's when people start taking notice here, how 0:17:46.920 --> 0:17:50.480 strong is his support? Remember Russia, the country is a 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:56.520 lost twenty seven millions in World War Two, civilians and military. Uh, 0:17:56.560 --> 0:18:00.440 they do recognize that wars come with a body count. However, 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.040 having said that a lot of Russian families have only 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:08.560 one child, that's only one son, and I do believe 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:14.040 that there's more discontent, especially among the relatives of the 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:18.879 men who died. But Putin's regime is not unlike the 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:24.960 Soviet predecessors who kept a tight lid on the public opinion, 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:30.359 but we see four now. For now, I stressed the 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:35.840 public support is anywhere between sixty and that's quite considered considerable. 0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:40.360 But in the future that the economic situation is going 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:43.439 to deteriorate, and it is deterierating. We can see it 0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:50.679 right now with Western technology management investment all drying up abruptly, 0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:53.359 and the Chinese are not capable but don't want to 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:58.280 replace the Western economic partners. Russia will continue to deteriorate 0:18:58.600 --> 0:19:01.960 and with that the public support of this war will 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:06.160 go down. I just want to quickly ask about the gas. 0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:08.520 How difficult is it going to be this winter for 0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:13.399 the Europeans to access Russian supplies? You know, it's not 0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:18.080 going to be pleasant. However, the projections are that by 0:19:18.160 --> 0:19:25.479 December nine of German um storage will be filled with gas. 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:28.440 And Germany is a key country here. Other countries will 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:31.440 need to scramble. The Italians are getting more gas from 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:35.920 from Algeria on the existing pipeline. They're putting more pumping 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:41.640 stations on that pipeline, and countries like Qatar and Australia 0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:45.000 and others who have any extra lergy and we in 0:19:45.040 --> 0:19:50.720 the United States can sell more lergy. They're more regasification 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:54.520 ships that are heading towards Europe. It will be more, 0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:57.680 expect more expensive, but I do not believe it will 0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:01.160 be a catastrophe. Aerial co and thank you so much 0:20:01.160 --> 0:20:03.520 for your time. You really appreciate getting your informed insights. 0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:06.760 Dr Errol Cohen. He's a senior fellow the Atlanta Council 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:13.400 Eurasia Center. Deep deep background and experience uh in European politics, geopolitics. 0:20:17.240 --> 0:20:20.560 You know, last week we had in video they disappointed 0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:22.960 with a big miss and revenue. They called out a 0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:25.480 slump in their gaming business, and I think that caused 0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:27.439 a lot of folks in the industry to kind of 0:20:27.440 --> 0:20:29.200 step back and say, all right, let's get a sense 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:31.600 of where the gaming industry, which has been such a 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:34.040 great growth story within the communication space, where that is 0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:36.080 right now, where it's going as we come out of 0:20:36.119 --> 0:20:38.040 the back end of this pandemic. So our next guest 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:41.760 is really a timely one and hand CEO and chairwoman 0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:45.439 of Super League Gaming that as a publicly traded company 0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:48.600 on the NASTAC s l g G as a ticker 0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:51.439 you can put into your Bloomberg Professional Service and get 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:53.600 all the information you need on that and thanks so 0:20:53.720 --> 0:20:56.600 much for joining us here. UM give us just kind 0:20:56.600 --> 0:20:58.480 of tell us what you guys are doing at Super 0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:01.120 League Gaming, what your company is all about, and kind 0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:03.960 of how you fit into this gaming ecosystem. Yeah, thank 0:21:03.960 --> 0:21:07.240 you for having me. UM. Super League started about eight 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:10.399 years ago, and our focus was really on the fact 0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:13.280 that these days, if you, if you know, speak to 0:21:13.359 --> 0:21:16.200 young kids, pretty much everyone's a gamer. Over eight percent 0:21:16.240 --> 0:21:19.280 of kids say that gaming is their favorite form of entertainment. 0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:22.480 And this was all pre COVID, right, so it was 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:26.480 already bigger than the film box office, bigger than tv UM, 0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:29.240 and we were really focused on kind of debunking the 0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:32.000 myth of who these gamers are, because gaming these days 0:21:32.040 --> 0:21:34.640 isn't something that they're going to grow out of, very 0:21:34.680 --> 0:21:37.920 different than the gaming that we did as kids. It's 0:21:38.400 --> 0:21:42.320 it's not just you against the machine. It's actually got 0:21:42.359 --> 0:21:46.560 a fair amount of community and and um commerce. It's 0:21:46.600 --> 0:21:49.879 really a place where kids are expressing their physical selves 0:21:49.920 --> 0:21:52.040 in this digital world and so they see it as 0:21:52.080 --> 0:21:54.760 one blended life. And how we fit in is we 0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:59.000 really focus on what we call metaverse games or open 0:21:59.040 --> 0:22:01.879 world gaming platfor forms, because that really speaks to kind 0:22:01.880 --> 0:22:05.960 of Generation Z and and Gen Alpha these days. Um, 0:22:06.000 --> 0:22:08.320 they're not just there for the competition. They want to 0:22:08.359 --> 0:22:11.480 step into these games like Minecraft and Roadblocks. You know, 0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:14.760 Minecraft has been around for over a decade um, and 0:22:14.760 --> 0:22:17.880 and hundreds of millions of kids are spending a lot 0:22:17.960 --> 0:22:21.720 of their playtime in these worlds where they can create, 0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:25.879 they can become game designers and developers. But it's also 0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:28.280 the digital cul de sac. It's it's where their friends 0:22:28.280 --> 0:22:31.120 are and where they want to interact with their digital 0:22:31.200 --> 0:22:34.000 selves as much as they want to interact with their digital, 0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:36.439 um physical life. So they kind of call it a 0:22:36.480 --> 0:22:39.960 digital world that we're living in. And so what I 0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:43.320 often say to brand's anti investors is is, you know, 0:22:43.480 --> 0:22:47.040 we're not talking about um, you know, metaverse capital m 0:22:47.080 --> 0:22:49.440 and something that's kind of abstract in five to ten 0:22:49.480 --> 0:22:52.480 years away. Um, you know, these games have been around 0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:54.399 for some time and this is where kids are. And 0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:57.360 what we do is we bring brands and advertisers into 0:22:57.400 --> 0:23:01.320 those worlds to create exciting experiences and content for them. 0:23:01.400 --> 0:23:06.639 So how come investors don't seem to get the story 0:23:06.960 --> 0:23:11.080 or or believe in it? Judged by the stock performance? 0:23:11.200 --> 0:23:14.480 I mean, yeah, yeah, I had a huge jump during 0:23:14.840 --> 0:23:18.720 the pandemic, but let's leave that out. Um, we've still 0:23:18.800 --> 0:23:24.119 seen the stock come down to a dollar from you know, 0:23:24.280 --> 0:23:27.199 leaving out the ten dollar peak, um, you know six 0:23:27.480 --> 0:23:31.920 at least. Yeah, absolutely, UM, I think some of this 0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:34.800 is just that fundamentally, when when we're kind of sitting 0:23:34.840 --> 0:23:37.960 in that nano cap space, you know, the stock doesn't 0:23:37.960 --> 0:23:40.880 have a lot of stability, that that kind of anomaly 0:23:41.080 --> 0:23:43.720 spike that we had that you pointed out, we became 0:23:43.760 --> 0:23:45.840 a bit of a meme stock during that time and 0:23:45.880 --> 0:23:48.639 got swept up in and what was happening with a 0:23:48.840 --> 0:23:51.720 MC and game stop. By the way, do you actively 0:23:51.760 --> 0:23:54.000 work to shun that? Because if I google s l 0:23:54.040 --> 0:23:56.480 G G, I'm I'm looking at you know, all these 0:23:56.520 --> 0:24:00.000 meme stock um kind of results and not so much 0:24:00.119 --> 0:24:03.679 about the actual company and what you do. Yeah. No, 0:24:03.880 --> 0:24:06.440 So that was definitely one of those kind of times 0:24:06.480 --> 0:24:09.520