1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,960 Speaker 1: Christin's having super confidence, super positive. This is a guy 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:04,680 Speaker 1: that has dug his bank out of a deep hole 3 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: and it is in a very different place that it 4 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:10,959 Speaker 1: was a few years ago, so he feels completely different. 5 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: He feels really quite positive. The numbers are good right now. 6 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: He's got this bank back to profitability. And you can 7 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 1: really see that in the fact that they've just made 8 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: an acquisition. It is still the talk of the town 9 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 1: here in London, the new misacquisition called all of us 10 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: by surprise, Tom, and it really came from a place 11 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: that nobody expected, and I think that is the thing 12 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: that caught everybody by surprise. So the question I asked 13 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: Christian was quite a simple one. Was the price just 14 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: too good? Was the offer just too good that he 15 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: couldn't refuse it? The macro uncertainty that has driven markets 16 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: so much recently, do you get the feeling that that 17 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: is beginning to receive Do you get the impression that 18 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: you are increasingly on more solid ground? 19 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 2: Well, first of all, I think we all have to 20 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 2: admit that if you look what has happened over the 21 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 2: last twelve to fifteen months in the macro. On the 22 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 2: geopolitical side, I think economies have really shown how resilient 23 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 2: they are, because a year ago, a lot of people 24 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 2: would have said there is a quite material recession in Europe, 25 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 2: in Germany, potentially also in the US, And if we 26 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 2: now look back, I think we see that the answer 27 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 2: we have given is actually showing that we fared quite 28 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 2: well over the last twelve to fifteen months. Now, I 29 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 2: think the situation remains complex. I do believe that with 30 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 2: a very persistent inflation, interests will further go. 31 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 3: Up on both sides of the ocean. 32 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 2: And I also do believe guy that the interest will 33 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 2: then stay a little bit longer elevated than potentially a 34 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 2: lot of people think. And that means that I still 35 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: believe that there is a chance of a mild recession 36 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 2: in the US at the end of twenty three early 37 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: twenty four, as well as in Europe. You see that 38 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 2: Germany is in a technical recession, has been in a 39 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:14,359 Speaker 2: technical recession. So I don't believe that we will see 40 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 2: a material recession, but I do think that uncertainty still prevails, 41 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 2: and hence we need to watch out. And the second 42 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 2: half of twenty twenty three is for sure a half 43 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 2: which is still complex and is still challenging. 44 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: So does that mean that the Q two guidance that 45 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: your CFO gave a few days back was just a 46 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: was just a blip. He was talking about fixed income 47 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: being down fifteen to twenty percent. You talk about the 48 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: fact that the second half is going to see significant 49 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,639 Speaker 1: uncertain that's a good environment for fixed income. So therefore, 50 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: was the Q two guidance just a blip? And do 51 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: you still believe that the fullier numbers are going to 52 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:58,959 Speaker 1: be better than the numbers that James gave. 53 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 2: Well, let's start with the Oval Bank and there we 54 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:05,519 Speaker 2: see a good momentum. That is the strategy of Deutsche 55 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 2: Bank that we says we need a more balanced bank. 56 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 2: That was exactly what we wanted to achieve in twenty 57 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: nineteen when we called out the transformation of Deutsche Bank. 58 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 3: And we see the results. 59 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 2: We have a very strong corporate bank, a very nice 60 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 2: developing private bank, and therefore we can confirm our twenty 61 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 2: eight to twenty nine billion of revenues for this year. 62 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 2: We see the momentum. We see a Q two to 63 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 2: be honest, Q two twenty twenty three from a revenue 64 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 2: point of view, which is higher than Q two twenty 65 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 2: twenty two. So overall, I would say this bank is 66 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 2: faring well. The strategy is paying off. With regard to 67 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 2: the investment bank, we always said that we had a 68 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 2: record year. We had an extraordinary strong year in the 69 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 2: FIG business in twenty twenty two. 70 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 3: I still think that actually in. 71 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 2: Q one and Q two we have done well, but 72 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 2: the overall market is a bit weaker than in the 73 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: record year of twenty twenty two. But I do believe 74 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 2: with some uncertainties, for instance the dead ceiling issue going 75 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 2: away in the US, then with the still complex situation 76 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 2: which is in front of us, I do believe that 77 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 2: in Q three and Q four there is momentum in 78 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 2: the business on. 79 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 3: The fixed site. 80 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 2: But for us, as a strategy of Deutsche Bank, it's 81 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 2: important that we further balance out the investment bank. Over All, 82 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 2: we have a very strong fake business. We have a 83 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,919 Speaker 2: very strong DCM business. What we really wanted to achieve 84 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 2: is that also the O and A business is further strengthstened, 85 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 2: and hence we've put a lot of investments into that. 86 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 1: So just to wrap this part of the conversation up, 87 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 1: it is going to be it's going to be an 88 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: operating environment for the fake business that is likely to 89 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: be less good than next year than last year. Q 90 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: two may or may not be a blip. You still 91 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: see uncertainty in the second half of the year, which 92 00:04:54,680 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 1: could provide opportunity. So on balance, the numbers arelike to 93 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: be slightly better than the fifteen to twenty percent that 94 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 1: James guided to. 95 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 2: That's that's what I would say for the coming months 96 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 2: and weeks. Again, Q two was also a particular quarter 97 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:13,559 Speaker 2: given the situation also which we had in the US. 98 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 2: We can already see also now in June on the 99 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 2: most recent days, that there is a that there is 100 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 2: momentum in the business. So I'm over all actually quite 101 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 2: comfortable also with the fig business. And again Q two 102 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 2: was a particular quarter. I would say that the fig 103 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 2: business in Q three and Q four I think. 104 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 3: There was a slight recovery. 105 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: You are very good at keeping secrets. Let's talk about 106 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 1: the new mist acquisition. For those of us to follow 107 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: the bank. It caught us all by surprise. I understand 108 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: you've been working on it for quite some time, but 109 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: it definitely caught us by surprise. 110 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 3: Was the offer just too good to refuse? Was the 111 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 3: price just too good to refuse? Where did it come from? Where? 112 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: Did where did your decision to go in this direction 113 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: the advisory business come from? 114 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 2: Well, I just said it in my previous answer. You know, 115 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,359 Speaker 2: I'm a big believer and the whole management team of 116 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 2: Deutsche Bank is a big believer that we need balanced business, 117 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 2: not only for the overall bank. 118 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 3: That was the reason why we did the transformation four years. 119 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 2: Ago, stable, well balanced set up with four businesses. In 120 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 2: each of those business I again want to be balanced, 121 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 2: and we have a very strong thick and DCM business. 122 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 2: Where we wanted to further invest is in the ONA business. 123 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 2: And you know we looked at Numis for a long 124 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 2: long time and yes we kept the secret quite well, 125 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 2: and we think it's an optimal addition to our business 126 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 2: mix and to our offerings in. 127 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 3: Europe and in particular in the UK. 128 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 2: The UK is from a fee market pool, it's the 129 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 2: most lucrative European market. We are adding one hundred and 130 00:06:56,760 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 2: seventy top corporate lines and it fits beautifully to our 131 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,839 Speaker 2: global house bank concept. Everybody is only thinking about the 132 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 2: investment banking offering, and yes, that's obviously something we are 133 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 2: very much interested in and it fits to our existing 134 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 2: positioning in the UK. But we have a really well 135 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: functioning corporate bank. So we have one hundred and seventy 136 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 2: additional clients with Numis now and we can offer our 137 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 2: corporate banking products and at the same time we have 138 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 2: a private bank where I think we can also do 139 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 2: the one or the other things. So the over global 140 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 2: housebank concept is fitting very well to Numis and therefore 141 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 2: we looked at it very carefully. I'm very glad about 142 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 2: the job Fabrizio and the team have done. And now 143 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 2: we concluded this and now we need to make the 144 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 2: final steps. 145 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 3: Right. Are you keeping more secrets from me? 146 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: Are there you talk about the other divisions and the 147 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: fact that you want to have balance. Are there other 148 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 1: deals in the offering? Even another great opportunity came along. 149 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: Are you still interested or is the dry powder gone? 150 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 2: No? I would say, look, I think we are very 151 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 2: careful and cautious a planning team. But of course we 152 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 2: always said that after restructuring and positioning this bank, we 153 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 2: are up for growth, and we always says we want 154 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 2: to grow in more capital lighted products, which is for instance, 155 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 2: the o NA business in the m and a business 156 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 2: in the advisory business. But you have also seen that 157 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 2: we have done senior hires again in corporate finance, but 158 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 2: also in the wealth management business. So we think that 159 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 2: we can further balance out the business at some point 160 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 2: in time over two three years. You know, we want 161 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 2: to also and we need to plan for a situation 162 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 2: that ANII is at some point in time again coming down. 163 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 2: We need then additional income streams, and this bank is 164 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 2: planning for that and is investing for that right now. 165 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 3: And hence a I wouldn't. 166 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 2: Tell you about secrets because you just said we are 167 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 2: good at it at keeping it, but that there is 168 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 2: a clear growth strategy in parts like wealth management, origination 169 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 2: and advice. Yes, we are focusing on that, and with 170 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 2: the recent hires we've seen that. 171 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: You talk about highers on the well side, though, do 172 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 1: you see the growth there being organic? Do you see 173 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: it being via acquisition of talent rather than acquisition of businesses? 174 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 3: Well, it's it's it's both. 175 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 2: But I do believe that we have now such a 176 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 2: nice positioning and and such a nice structure that we 177 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 2: really do believe that if you have a chance to 178 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 2: acquire and and get good and great talent in all 179 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 2: kinds of regions, this is a really good way in 180 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 2: step by step growing your business. Claudio Desunctis has done 181 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 2: that very successfully in Asia in other parts of southern Europe. 182 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 3: So that is the first way of growing. 183 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: If Commons Bank ever came back, would you be interested 184 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: in that acquisition? They have got a huge deposit base, 185 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: which in this environment is hugely attractive. 186 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 3: Well, we also have a huge deport base. Together it 187 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 3: would be even bigger. 188 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, But I think we have shown also during the 189 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 2: recent volatilities in the market, how firm and how stable 190 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 2: our deposit base is, so that is not a reason 191 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 2: to actually think about further enlarging it or acquiring somebody else. 192 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 2: I think the full focus of Deutsche Bank is in now, 193 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 2: after successfully delivering the transformation over the last three or 194 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 2: four years, is now growing into an area where we 195 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 2: have a returnal equity of larger than ten percent in 196 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. We are in a good way of 197 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,199 Speaker 2: achieving that. The first quarter of twenty twenty three has 198 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 2: clearly shown the strength of Deutsche Bank and we can 199 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 2: control it by ourselves. We can achieve that by ourselves, 200 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 2: and that is our focus. 201 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 1: Christ and Serving, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, speaking to 202 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: me exclusively, a few minutes ago upstairs here at Bloomberg 203 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 1: Takeaways much more positive. Feeling quite good about the situation 204 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: going forward, will not exclude further acquisitions. He talked about 205 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 1: the fact that maybe the Q two dropped. That his CFO, 206 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: James B. Walka, talked about maybe actually a little bit 207 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: of a blip. He sees a recovery potentially infiltrating in 208 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: the second half of the year.