WEBVTT - Hydrogen 101

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<v Speaker 1>This is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switch It

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<v Speaker 1>on the B n F Podcast. Today, I speak with

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<v Speaker 1>Martin Tangler, who is our lead hydrogen analyst here at

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<v Speaker 1>B and F, and today we're going to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>well hydrogen, which has been a pretty buzzy topic as

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<v Speaker 1>of late. But rather than go into detail on something

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<v Speaker 1>specific or technical, we're going to zoom out way out.

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<v Speaker 1>For example, it seems like every time I turn around,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a new color associated with the hydrogen color wheel.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, there's been green and blue hydrogen, but what

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<v Speaker 1>about pink, yellow, or gray? I could keep going, but

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<v Speaker 1>you get the idea. Martin recently wrote a research note

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<v Speaker 1>titled Hydrogen for Beginners, Everything you Need to Know, where

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<v Speaker 1>he breaks down this hydrogen primer into history, physics, and

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<v Speaker 1>economics in order to see the future of this clean

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<v Speaker 1>burning molecule and to understand how it might fit with

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<v Speaker 1>some of the hard to abate sectors. We're going to

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<v Speaker 1>start with the fundamentals. For Bloomberg subscribers who want to

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<v Speaker 1>read this or see some of the charts that Martin made,

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<v Speaker 1>you'll be able to find it on the Bloomberg terminal

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<v Speaker 1>at B NF Go at b enof dot com or

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<v Speaker 1>on our mobile app. As a reminder, B andF does

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<v Speaker 1>not provide investment or strategy advice, and we've got a

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<v Speaker 1>complete disclaimer at the end of the show. But now

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<v Speaker 1>let's talk about hydrogen. Martin, thank you for joining today.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you. So we're here to talk about hydrogen. We've

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<v Speaker 1>done a few hydrogen podcasts in the past, and they

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<v Speaker 1>were on very specific topics. But today we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>try something different. We're going to zoom way out and

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to talk about We'll try to in one

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<v Speaker 1>show explain the basics of hydrogen and how this market works.

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<v Speaker 1>Because there's so much buzz around it at the moment,

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<v Speaker 1>Can you explain to everybody why you ended up writing

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<v Speaker 1>a primary research report when we have historically gone much

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<v Speaker 1>deeper on topics. So I think that's exactly the reason

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<v Speaker 1>why we have historically gone very deep on topics with

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<v Speaker 1>let's say an assumption that the average B and EF

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<v Speaker 1>either would understand most of the basics, and then we

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<v Speaker 1>had a couple of conversations, you know, with our clients,

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<v Speaker 1>even internally with our colleagues, there turns out to be

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty wide range of people in terms of how

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<v Speaker 1>well they understand hydrogen for obvious reasons, and so we

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<v Speaker 1>thought that writing a report that helps everybody be on

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<v Speaker 1>the same page, and after they've read it, then they

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<v Speaker 1>can read any other b NF report on hydrogen and

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<v Speaker 1>feel like they can understand it, feel that they get

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<v Speaker 1>the context. So that was really the purpose of the report.

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<v Speaker 1>What I realized today when preparing for our discussion was

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<v Speaker 1>that there are certain colors in the hydrogen wheel. You

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<v Speaker 1>may like referred to as a wheel of different colors.

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<v Speaker 1>There's certain colors within hydrogen that I understand much better

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<v Speaker 1>than others, and we will come to that and discuss

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<v Speaker 1>what each of those is. But let's take another giant

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<v Speaker 1>step back and let's start with history. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>many of us associate hydrogen with Zeppelin's. You know, this

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<v Speaker 1>is a natural resource that has been around for some time,

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<v Speaker 1>So let's talk about when it kind of first came

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<v Speaker 1>on the radar and where hydrogen has been in the past,

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<v Speaker 1>so that we can talk about the potential in the future.

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<v Speaker 1>The idea of using hydrogen is absolutely not new. It

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<v Speaker 1>goes back to at least the eighteen hundreds, when in

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen seventy four French writer, as you'll learn, wrote a

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<v Speaker 1>book in which he said that one day hydrogen will

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<v Speaker 1>provide an inexhaustible source of heat and light. That's kind

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<v Speaker 1>of how it's translates. Have you read this book. I

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<v Speaker 1>have not read this book. I've just I've just from it.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know what, it's on my reading list. I

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<v Speaker 1>definitely want to read it. Jewels were in the visionary.

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<v Speaker 1>I will add it to my book club reading. Absolutely.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's the idea of using hydrogen for energy, right.

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<v Speaker 1>Hydrogen is a very energy dense molecule, which is something

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<v Speaker 1>that I think we'll talk about later as well. But

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<v Speaker 1>then the idea of using hygen for energy, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there have been a couple couple of waves in the middle.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you mentioned the Zeppelins. Then they have been

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the US and the Soviets. Apparently we're testing

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<v Speaker 1>planes that would fly on hydrogen in the nineteen fifties,

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<v Speaker 1>which hasn't exactly worked out. But then a hundred years later,

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<v Speaker 1>in nineteen seventy four, the roadent Track magazine in the

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<v Speaker 1>US published on its cover this thing that said hydrogen

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<v Speaker 1>new and clean fuel for the future. And the reason

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<v Speaker 1>they did it was because Back then, there was this

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<v Speaker 1>idea of using hydrogen as a fuel for cars because

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<v Speaker 1>it was in the middle of the oil crisis. Oil

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<v Speaker 1>was scarce or was expensive. People are looking for ways

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<v Speaker 1>to feel their that their vehicles without having to rely

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<v Speaker 1>on oil. But then all crisis finished, you know, hydrogen

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<v Speaker 1>cars didn't really go anywhere, and then we've got a

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<v Speaker 1>couple more of these waves throughout history. You know, George

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<v Speaker 1>bush Into in two thousand and three said that the

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<v Speaker 1>first car driven by a child born today could be

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<v Speaker 1>powered by hydrogen. So now if you fast forward to today,

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<v Speaker 1>there are about thirty thou cars globally that have been

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<v Speaker 1>sold that run on hydrogen. So maybe there's a a

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<v Speaker 1>child somewhere whose first card happens to be a totemm

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<v Speaker 1>ME RAI. But it's definitely more like the exception than

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<v Speaker 1>the rules. So there have been a lot of a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of waves of interest, but much less in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of actually following up on those waves with action in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of using hydrogen for energy. So they're definitely have

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<v Speaker 1>been these points where, oh, maybe hydrogen will be really

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<v Speaker 1>great for transport, and it is used in some spaces.

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<v Speaker 1>It is you know, you have hydrogen ferries being developed,

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<v Speaker 1>and you have different vehicles, land vehicles being using hydrogen.

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<v Speaker 1>We're seeing a few of them out there, but then

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<v Speaker 1>not quite yet beaten out certainly the internal combustion engine

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<v Speaker 1>or really batteries which seem to be taking off. So

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<v Speaker 1>the story of hydrogen is one where there just seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be this fever pitch of excitement in the industry

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<v Speaker 1>and then seeing whether or not it's actually going to

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<v Speaker 1>take hold. So let's talk a little bit about the

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<v Speaker 1>physical properties or the physics of hydrogen so that we

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<v Speaker 1>can understand kind of what we're dealing with before we

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<v Speaker 1>think about the future potential that it has and maybe

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<v Speaker 1>why there is all of this buzz. So with hydrogen,

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<v Speaker 1>where should we start? Should we start with the transport

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<v Speaker 1>or let's start with where we get it from? How

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<v Speaker 1>does one find or create hydrogen currently? That's a really

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<v Speaker 1>good question, So there's at least two two ways to

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<v Speaker 1>answer this. It turns out that hydrogen is by far

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<v Speaker 1>the most abundant element in the universe, and I imagine

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<v Speaker 1>that many people listening to this podcast will have probably

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<v Speaker 1>heard that somewhere. But about three quarters of all the

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<v Speaker 1>chemical elements or you know, the particles in the universe

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<v Speaker 1>are hydrogen particles, but on Earth hydrogen does not appear

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<v Speaker 1>in its pure form in the Union. In the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of the universe, hydrogen is basically what makes up stars

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<v Speaker 1>together with helium, but on Earth we've got no stars.

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<v Speaker 1>Hydrogen is locked in other chemicals because it's a very

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<v Speaker 1>reactive gas, so it's either locked in water, so that's

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<v Speaker 1>H two oh. Familiar with that one, Yeah, yeah, drink

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<v Speaker 1>that every day. And hydrocarbons, which basically is another word

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<v Speaker 1>for fossil fuels, So example would be methane H four

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<v Speaker 1>another more complex hydrocarbon molecules from which then we can

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<v Speaker 1>extract hydrogen. So if we were to extract hygen from water,

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<v Speaker 1>then you need to use this process called electrolysis, which

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<v Speaker 1>means you pass electricity through water in a device that's

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<v Speaker 1>called an electrolyzer. On one end, hydrogen comes out. On

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<v Speaker 1>another end, oxygen comes out, so the H two and

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<v Speaker 1>the oh to come on on separate ends. If you

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<v Speaker 1>were to extract hydrogen from hydrocarbons such as methane, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's how we extract the vast majority of hydrogen today,

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<v Speaker 1>then for methane you could use this technology gold steam

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<v Speaker 1>methane reforming, which means you're bombarding methane molecules with very

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<v Speaker 1>hot steam and unlocking the hydrogen that way. But what

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<v Speaker 1>that does mean is that given that methane is the

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<v Speaker 1>hydrocarbon c H four, you've got the carbon molecules attaching

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<v Speaker 1>to oxygen and leaving a CEO to gas. So then

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<v Speaker 1>the hydrogen that we use today, and we use a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of hydrogen today something we can talk about as well,

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<v Speaker 1>not for energy, we're using it for the chemistry of it.

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<v Speaker 1>We're using a lot of it that's very corton intensive,

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<v Speaker 1>So let's go into that. So that we're talking about

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<v Speaker 1>this hydrogen as a potentially clean burning fuel, but the

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<v Speaker 1>way that we're producing it today, it's not there yet.

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<v Speaker 1>And you were mentioning that there are uses today where

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<v Speaker 1>the chemical properties are critically important. So it's not being

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<v Speaker 1>used as a source of energy, it's being used for

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<v Speaker 1>something else. Where are we currently using hydrogen where is

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<v Speaker 1>it critical? There are really three sectors today that use

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<v Speaker 1>the majority of the hydrogen that we produce. That is

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<v Speaker 1>oil refining or hydrogen is used for sulfur removal. Then

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<v Speaker 1>it's ammonia, which is used for fertilizers. So ammonia is

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<v Speaker 1>n H three, so it's one nitrogen and three hydrogen molecules,

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<v Speaker 1>so you cannot produce ammonia without hydrogen. And then there's

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<v Speaker 1>a methanol which is c H three oh h. Again

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<v Speaker 1>it's a chemical that's used for many different things. Cannot

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<v Speaker 1>produce it physically without hydrogen because it contains hydrogen. So

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<v Speaker 1>that's really the three biggest sectors that use hydrogen today.

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<v Speaker 1>But then hydrogen is produced from mostly steam methane reforming

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<v Speaker 1>releasing that CEO two, and therefore it's not a solution

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<v Speaker 1>for the carbonization, which is how hydrogen is being presented

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<v Speaker 1>a lot today, but it's actually part of the problem

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<v Speaker 1>that will itself need to be solved. So there's the

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<v Speaker 1>uses today and then the potential for tomorrow. About how

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<v Speaker 1>much hydrogen, you're saying, there's quite a bit of it.

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<v Speaker 1>How much hydrogen are we already using today? So if

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<v Speaker 1>you sum up the hydrogen that we use as pure

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<v Speaker 1>hydrogen nos H two and the hydrogen we use mixed

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<v Speaker 1>in with with other gases like sing gas, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>we're using about a hundred and twenty million tons of

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<v Speaker 1>hydrogen per year. Now when I heard this number for

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<v Speaker 1>the first time, I just thought, what what does that mean?

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<v Speaker 1>HydroD and twenty million tons sounds like a lot. But

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<v Speaker 1>but how do you even quantify? Is how do you

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<v Speaker 1>visualize it? And so I ransom calculations. In terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the amount of energy that that this hydrogen contains, it's

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<v Speaker 1>about half of the amount of energy that the US

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<v Speaker 1>consumes every year in the form of natural gas. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's a lot. And if you were to fit that

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<v Speaker 1>hydrogen into a volume, it would be about one thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>three hundred cubic kilometers, which is roughly the equivalent of

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<v Speaker 1>about eleven dead seas. So it's a heck of a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of hydrogen that we're already using today eleven dead

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<v Speaker 1>seas like that. So okay, so we've got hydrogen that

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<v Speaker 1>we need to create. How about the naturally occurring hydrogen.

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<v Speaker 1>I was at a conference last week or somebody at

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<v Speaker 1>this sudden they said, Oh, there might be hydrogen that

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<v Speaker 1>we don't actually have to produce and that we can

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<v Speaker 1>just naturally extract. Is this actually the case is? There's

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<v Speaker 1>got a lot of potential. So if you serve around

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<v Speaker 1>the internet, you will find that even you you will

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<v Speaker 1>find even academic papers that talk about having discovered the

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<v Speaker 1>accumulations of natural hydrogen so H two in its pure form.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of them even claimed to be using that hydrogen

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<v Speaker 1>in in some form or shape for energy. But they're

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<v Speaker 1>very small examples for the moment. So as far as

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<v Speaker 1>we can tell right now, most hydrogen on Earth is

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<v Speaker 1>locked into water or hydrocarbons. There might be some deposits

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<v Speaker 1>of pure hydrogen, we just haven't found them to be

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<v Speaker 1>large enough to really be economically viable. Of course, if

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<v Speaker 1>we do, should that happen, then that could, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>change the game quite quite significantly. But for the moment,

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<v Speaker 1>it would appear that these are more kind of an

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<v Speaker 1>anecdotal piece of evidence rather than a sign of something bigger. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're gonna have to make it, and we're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>get back into that in a second. But let's let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about the potential of what it

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<v Speaker 1>is that we want to use it for. So you

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<v Speaker 1>brought up transport in the past, and then you're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about chemical processes, but the real potential here has to

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<v Speaker 1>do with some of the hard to abate sectors, and

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<v Speaker 1>simply put, the hard to abate sectors and the ones

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<v Speaker 1>where we are having a hard time figuring out how

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<v Speaker 1>to decarbonize them. Which are these There's a lot of them,

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<v Speaker 1>to be honest, Uh, pretty much every sector is hard

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<v Speaker 1>to abate when when you think about it, really we

0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:52.560
<v Speaker 1>could talk about transport, especially planes and ships. Not getting

0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 1>back the carbonized is going to be a challenge. We

0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:59.520
<v Speaker 1>could talk about power generation if you're being a research

0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:02.559
<v Speaker 1>which show that if you want to decarbonize your electricity

0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:06.040
<v Speaker 1>grid with just solar, wind and batteries, then you can

0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:09.720
<v Speaker 1>only get up to maybe carbon free, but then you

0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.880
<v Speaker 1>kind of gets stuck and you need some other technology

0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:16.160
<v Speaker 1>to get you all the way to carbon free, and

0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:20.200
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen could potentially be that, but there are other candidates too.

0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:22.680
<v Speaker 1>Then you could be using hydrogen as a source of

0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.160
<v Speaker 1>heat because it burns, and it burns very very hot,

0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:28.400
<v Speaker 1>So you could use it for steel production, cement production,

0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 1>aluminum production, you could use it to heat buildings the

0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.480
<v Speaker 1>ones that we that that we live in or working.

0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:38.160
<v Speaker 1>And then of course hydrogen itself already works, already exists

0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:42.320
<v Speaker 1>as a feedstock for all those uh, sectors I've already

0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:48.040
<v Speaker 1>talked about, like all of refining, like fertilizers, some plastics

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:51.400
<v Speaker 1>and these sectors well also need to be decarbonized with

0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:55.000
<v Speaker 1>clean hydrogen. So I have a friend who is involved

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:59.440
<v Speaker 1>in developing hydrogen ferries at the moment, and I referenced

0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:01.480
<v Speaker 1>to the very big ending of the show the Zeppelin,

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.720
<v Speaker 1>which is probably one of the most common things that

0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:08.120
<v Speaker 1>we know about. It's a very flammable gas. Was that

0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:11.200
<v Speaker 1>one of the main barriers that is standing in the

0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:14.600
<v Speaker 1>way of application in some of these industries or does

0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:17.840
<v Speaker 1>it have much more to do with the economics. I

0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:20.760
<v Speaker 1>would say it's mostly in most sectors, it's going to

0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:24.000
<v Speaker 1>be the economics more than it is the flammability. But

0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:27.240
<v Speaker 1>there certainly are some challenges when it comes to hydrogen safety.

0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.800
<v Speaker 1>It's not like we're not using flammable gases right now.

0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:33.560
<v Speaker 1>Natural gas which you probably use at home to to

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.200
<v Speaker 1>heat your water and cook my porridge this morning, with

0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:42.720
<v Speaker 1>very flammable gas itself, but not not as flammable or

0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:46.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, it just has different properties. Hydrogen as different

0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:49.800
<v Speaker 1>properties from natural gas, just to put it simply, And

0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:51.800
<v Speaker 1>there have been a couple of studies that try to

0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 1>compare the safety of hydrogen versus natural gas, and most

0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:00.200
<v Speaker 1>of them will tell you that the hydrogen would tend

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:04.360
<v Speaker 1>to you know, holding every every other variable constant would

0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:11.920
<v Speaker 1>tend to cause more injuries or more explosions than natural gas.

0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:16.240
<v Speaker 1>So that's certainly something that will need to consider where

0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:18.200
<v Speaker 1>we're going to use this hydrogence. So if you're going

0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:21.360
<v Speaker 1>to be using your home for heating and for cooking,

0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:23.960
<v Speaker 1>of course taking this into account is going to be

0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:29.520
<v Speaker 1>absolutely essential you're going to be using that safely. I mean,

0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:31.880
<v Speaker 1>that makes a lot of sense. So may within these

0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.720
<v Speaker 1>hard to abate sectors may end up lending itself better

0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:37.560
<v Speaker 1>to some than others. But let's talk a little bit

0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:41.800
<v Speaker 1>about the emissions or lack thereof, associated with hydrogen for

0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.360
<v Speaker 1>the hard to abate sectors. So this question that needs

0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 1>to be answered as it's currently produced. It's not a

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:53.880
<v Speaker 1>net zero option. What needs to happen in order for

0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 1>it to be made without emitting CEO two. So today

0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:01.920
<v Speaker 1>I've already said it. Most hydrogen is produced from methane

0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:06.320
<v Speaker 1>using steam methane reforming. Basically, methane is natural gas that

0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.280
<v Speaker 1>releases quite a lot of c O two. So for

0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:12.800
<v Speaker 1>every kilogram of hydrogen you produce, you get about nine

0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:17.400
<v Speaker 1>kilograms of c O two. If you're producing this hydrogen

0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.960
<v Speaker 1>the standard way, which is what's called gray hydrogen from

0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:24.640
<v Speaker 1>steam methane reforming. Now, the first thing you can do,

0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.320
<v Speaker 1>and that's the thing that a lot of companies who

0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:31.760
<v Speaker 1>happen to own these production facilities for gray hydrogen are

0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:35.840
<v Speaker 1>thinking about, is you could put a CCS carbon capture

0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:40.000
<v Speaker 1>and storage functionality on your on your gray hydrogen production,

0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:44.560
<v Speaker 1>then you could try to capture and store that carbon. Now,

0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:49.040
<v Speaker 1>you're unlikely to ever be able to capture of the carbon.

0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:52.720
<v Speaker 1>We tend to assume that typically six of your emissions

0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:56.359
<v Speaker 1>would be captured. Now, there have been some discussions recently

0:17:57.040 --> 0:18:01.920
<v Speaker 1>after a paper was published by academics from Cornell and

0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:05.760
<v Speaker 1>Stanford Universities that the emissions of blue hydrogen with CCS

0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 1>might be a lot higher than we had originally thought,

0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 1>but regardless, they would probably blue hydrogen would probably result

0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:18.720
<v Speaker 1>in in a less emissions than gray. But the whole

0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:21.119
<v Speaker 1>point in a lot of countries these days is getting

0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:24.879
<v Speaker 1>down to net zero. So you know, blue hydrogen capturing

0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.800
<v Speaker 1>of emissions emissions is still not gonna get you there.

0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:32.600
<v Speaker 1>So then your other options would be to use electrolysis

0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:37.080
<v Speaker 1>that's powered with electricity. That's uh that doesn't release any emissions,

0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:39.679
<v Speaker 1>so of course that could be grain hydrogen produced from

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:44.640
<v Speaker 1>electrolysis with renewables. It could be hydrogen produced from electrolysis

0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:48.360
<v Speaker 1>with nuclear power, for example, So those would be your

0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:51.600
<v Speaker 1>options for carbon free hygen. There are other technologies that

0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:54.600
<v Speaker 1>could produce hydrogen. Okay, so you started to get into

0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:58.239
<v Speaker 1>the Crayola box of colors on hydrogen. So let's just

0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:01.479
<v Speaker 1>spell that out for everybody, given that those listening today

0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:04.480
<v Speaker 1>want to know the basics of this industry. So green

0:19:04.640 --> 0:19:06.879
<v Speaker 1>is the one that I'm most familiar with. Green is

0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:11.399
<v Speaker 1>the renewable electricity produced hydrogen. But let's let's go around

0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.680
<v Speaker 1>the wheel, so turquoise is next. Yeah, well, I would

0:19:14.720 --> 0:19:16.880
<v Speaker 1>take a step back first and just make it very

0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:20.440
<v Speaker 1>clear that hydrogen itself is a colorless gas. So hydrogen

0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:24.080
<v Speaker 1>has absolutely no color in the first place, and these

0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:28.760
<v Speaker 1>colors are only used as a shorthand to identify how

0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:32.200
<v Speaker 1>the hydrogen was produced. Some irony here in the color

0:19:32.200 --> 0:19:35.560
<v Speaker 1>wheel for hydrogen. It's completely colorless, yet we want to

0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:39.200
<v Speaker 1>use colors to explain it exactly. So you're right, And

0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:43.800
<v Speaker 1>the other colors that are out there include turquoise hydrogen,

0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:46.919
<v Speaker 1>which is a no, not not a standard way to

0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:50.000
<v Speaker 1>produce hydrogen today. It's quite uh, you know, it's quite

0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:56.800
<v Speaker 1>a nascent, quite a new technology where basically it's methane pyrolysis.

0:19:56.840 --> 0:20:00.960
<v Speaker 1>What you end up with is a hydrogen black carbon powder.

0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:04.000
<v Speaker 1>So that's kind of interesting that you end up with

0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:07.679
<v Speaker 1>carbon not as carbon dioxide, but as as a solid.

0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 1>Then there's blue hydrogen, which we've already talked about, So

0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:12.880
<v Speaker 1>that's hydrogen from fossil fuels, the same may we produce

0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:17.000
<v Speaker 1>it today, but with carbon capture and storage. Okay. And

0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:20.800
<v Speaker 1>then there's the gray, which you also referred to, which

0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:24.480
<v Speaker 1>includes ccs. What else goes into the gray category? So

0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:27.840
<v Speaker 1>great gray is hydrogen that is produced from fossil fuels

0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:33.360
<v Speaker 1>waited out carbon capture and storage. That's it. It's just

0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:39.359
<v Speaker 1>made made without any real abatement technology associated with it.

0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:42.200
<v Speaker 1>So that's probably the most polluting and that's how we

0:20:42.280 --> 0:20:44.960
<v Speaker 1>produce most of our hydrogen today. And then we've moved

0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:50.160
<v Speaker 1>up to well, red is the color often associated sometimes

0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:53.040
<v Speaker 1>with nuclear so is that the color that's associated with

0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen there? This is really where it starts getting a

0:20:56.000 --> 0:20:58.640
<v Speaker 1>bit hazy. I wonder if hazy is a color too

0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:02.000
<v Speaker 1>but it is is the color that B and e

0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:05.760
<v Speaker 1>F likes to use to show nuclear in our reports.

0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:09.040
<v Speaker 1>But typically people who talk about hygiene from nuclear would

0:21:09.080 --> 0:21:12.480
<v Speaker 1>use the color pink. Oh okay, so we need to

0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:15.119
<v Speaker 1>we need to think about our colors slightly differently. And

0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:18.440
<v Speaker 1>then what about yellow and purple? And I mean, we're

0:21:18.760 --> 0:21:22.439
<v Speaker 1>got more colors to get through. There's all these different colors. So,

0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:26.400
<v Speaker 1>for example, purple and orange are both sometimes used as

0:21:26.480 --> 0:21:29.920
<v Speaker 1>colors to say that you're using you're producing hydrogen from

0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:34.680
<v Speaker 1>biomass gasification, which technically could also be another way of

0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:38.520
<v Speaker 1>producing CEO two free hydrogen if you've got a sustainable

0:21:38.560 --> 0:21:42.080
<v Speaker 1>source of biomass. No, I like, I'm saying, these colors

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:44.639
<v Speaker 1>they get hazier and hazier. You know, why does it

0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:47.360
<v Speaker 1>have to be orange and purple? In are we are

0:21:47.400 --> 0:21:50.879
<v Speaker 1>we burning orange? Peel and lavender? Or you know? Is

0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:53.560
<v Speaker 1>it for every every different color of feats on the

0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:56.679
<v Speaker 1>burning we're getting a different we're getting We're using a

0:21:56.680 --> 0:21:58.919
<v Speaker 1>different color. So you know, at B and EF we

0:21:59.040 --> 0:22:02.800
<v Speaker 1>prefer to away from using colors and just say no

0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:07.360
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen produced from bringewable electricity even better, hydrogen produced from

0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:12.320
<v Speaker 1>solar PV electricity, which is obviously more accurate than brain hydrogen,

0:22:12.760 --> 0:22:15.600
<v Speaker 1>So we prefer to use the you know, the more

0:22:15.600 --> 0:22:18.560
<v Speaker 1>accurate term of nif. That does lead me slightly less

0:22:18.560 --> 0:22:21.280
<v Speaker 1>confused when we do that, or when others in the

0:22:21.320 --> 0:22:24.320
<v Speaker 1>industry call it out, because otherwise it feels a little

0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:28.320
<v Speaker 1>bit too like a you know, session with barbaras and painting. Okay,

0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:31.720
<v Speaker 1>so here we go. Let's talk about the properties of hydrogen.

0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:34.240
<v Speaker 1>So let's bring that down into simple parts. You mentioned

0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:39.840
<v Speaker 1>that it's invisible, it's also odorless. What are the other

0:22:40.440 --> 0:22:43.639
<v Speaker 1>properties of hydrogen that we should know about. There's a

0:22:43.640 --> 0:22:46.800
<v Speaker 1>whole lot of them. It's not naturally occurring, so that's

0:22:46.880 --> 0:22:49.520
<v Speaker 1>something we've already discussed. On Earth, you have to extract

0:22:49.560 --> 0:22:54.119
<v Speaker 1>it from from something. It's very light. So one of

0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:56.840
<v Speaker 1>the things that you might that a lot of proponents

0:22:56.840 --> 0:22:59.040
<v Speaker 1>of hydrogen might tell you, or that you know, if

0:22:59.040 --> 0:23:02.280
<v Speaker 1>you read a random article online, you might might read

0:23:02.320 --> 0:23:06.880
<v Speaker 1>that hydrogen is the most energy dense element in the

0:23:07.000 --> 0:23:12.320
<v Speaker 1>universe or on Earth, which is pretty much true per kilogram.

0:23:12.640 --> 0:23:14.960
<v Speaker 1>So if you if you take all the elements and

0:23:15.040 --> 0:23:17.119
<v Speaker 1>you you look at the per kilogram, which one has

0:23:17.160 --> 0:23:20.480
<v Speaker 1>the most energy, then hydrogen is definitely at the top.

0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:25.359
<v Speaker 1>But the challenge is that if you want to fit

0:23:25.400 --> 0:23:29.800
<v Speaker 1>that kilogram into a reasonable amount of space, that's where

0:23:29.800 --> 0:23:35.679
<v Speaker 1>you really run into problems. So hydrogen takes up about

0:23:36.000 --> 0:23:40.199
<v Speaker 1>three to four times the space compared to natural gas

0:23:40.800 --> 0:23:44.160
<v Speaker 1>to store the same amount of energy, so that really

0:23:44.240 --> 0:23:47.800
<v Speaker 1>causes some challenges when it comes to storing and moving

0:23:47.920 --> 0:23:51.280
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen around in in the tank. The hydrogen is a

0:23:51.280 --> 0:23:54.920
<v Speaker 1>low boiling point, so one of the ideas to shrink

0:23:54.920 --> 0:24:00.320
<v Speaker 1>the volume of hydrogen is to liquefy it by cooling

0:24:00.359 --> 0:24:02.600
<v Speaker 1>it down, the same way you do with natural gas

0:24:02.960 --> 0:24:06.400
<v Speaker 1>to form l n G. But natural gas cools down

0:24:06.440 --> 0:24:09.440
<v Speaker 1>that it becomes a liquid that minus one sixty two

0:24:09.440 --> 0:24:13.000
<v Speaker 1>degrees hydrogen becomes a liquid that minus two hundred and

0:24:13.000 --> 0:24:17.359
<v Speaker 1>fifty three degrees celsius. Wow, that is a level of

0:24:17.440 --> 0:24:20.920
<v Speaker 1>cold I am not even considered. Yeah, it turns out

0:24:20.960 --> 0:24:24.639
<v Speaker 1>that the lowest temperature that you can physically achieve is

0:24:24.680 --> 0:24:28.560
<v Speaker 1>only about twenty degrees celsius below that, so we're talking

0:24:29.240 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 1>super extreme code and therefore it takes a lot of

0:24:31.920 --> 0:24:35.880
<v Speaker 1>energy to actually reach that kind of temperature. Takes about

0:24:36.440 --> 0:24:39.639
<v Speaker 1>the energy and the hydrogen itself just to liquefy it.

0:24:40.160 --> 0:24:44.080
<v Speaker 1>So there's a lot of inefficiencies that are associated with

0:24:44.160 --> 0:24:46.600
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen if you want to liquify it or if you

0:24:46.640 --> 0:24:50.760
<v Speaker 1>just want to produce hydrogen. Just a simple production of hydrogen,

0:24:50.880 --> 0:24:54.719
<v Speaker 1>you need about fifty three two fifty seven kilovered hours

0:24:54.720 --> 0:24:57.960
<v Speaker 1>of electricity to produce a kilogram of hydrogen, and that

0:24:58.119 --> 0:25:02.399
<v Speaker 1>kilogram of hydrogen called obtains depending on how you count it,

0:25:03.080 --> 0:25:06.920
<v Speaker 1>thirty three to thirty nine point four kilo with hours

0:25:06.920 --> 0:25:10.000
<v Speaker 1>of energy, So you already end up with with with

0:25:10.080 --> 0:25:13.880
<v Speaker 1>a pretty significant of thirty two percent loss at least

0:25:14.440 --> 0:25:17.760
<v Speaker 1>with just producing hydrogen from electricity. And then if you

0:25:17.800 --> 0:25:20.359
<v Speaker 1>were to take this electricity dec I didn't make electricity

0:25:20.400 --> 0:25:23.880
<v Speaker 1>from it again, which is the idea in some places,

0:25:24.240 --> 0:25:28.439
<v Speaker 1>you have another fifty loss, So then you basically end

0:25:28.520 --> 0:25:30.399
<v Speaker 1>up with just thirty percent of the energy that you

0:25:30.480 --> 0:25:33.040
<v Speaker 1>started with back in the form of electricity. So that's

0:25:33.080 --> 0:25:37.239
<v Speaker 1>a pretty inefficient way of of of using energy. So

0:25:37.280 --> 0:25:39.280
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned low efficiency, and we talked a little bit

0:25:39.320 --> 0:25:41.720
<v Speaker 1>earlier about how combustible it is, and it's not the

0:25:41.720 --> 0:25:44.840
<v Speaker 1>only combustible thing we use currently, so that's one thing.

0:25:45.160 --> 0:25:47.320
<v Speaker 1>And then also you mentioned that it's reactive, so their

0:25:47.400 --> 0:25:52.320
<v Speaker 1>chemical reactions. But when you were explaining just now several

0:25:52.359 --> 0:25:54.440
<v Speaker 1>of these parts of this gas that we're now kind

0:25:54.440 --> 0:25:57.080
<v Speaker 1>of getting a better picture of what its properties are,

0:25:57.280 --> 0:26:01.119
<v Speaker 1>you started going into various units, not something that you

0:26:01.160 --> 0:26:04.000
<v Speaker 1>can also explain. So how do we given the it's

0:26:04.080 --> 0:26:06.320
<v Speaker 1>gas or you can also be a liquid and also

0:26:06.440 --> 0:26:09.720
<v Speaker 1>has an energy intensity that we need to consider? How

0:26:09.760 --> 0:26:13.679
<v Speaker 1>do people talk about hydrogen when they talk about what

0:26:13.840 --> 0:26:16.440
<v Speaker 1>units are used to apply to it? Yeah, this is

0:26:16.480 --> 0:26:19.879
<v Speaker 1>really tricky because you know, at BNF, we're at least

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:22.640
<v Speaker 1>most of us would be used to the units used

0:26:22.680 --> 0:26:27.080
<v Speaker 1>for electricity, which typically would be kilo with hours, but

0:26:27.280 --> 0:26:29.960
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen is a is a bit more complicated than that.

0:26:30.080 --> 0:26:32.240
<v Speaker 1>So there are at least three ways in which you

0:26:32.280 --> 0:26:39.680
<v Speaker 1>could talk about hydrogen and or express hydrogen in different units.

0:26:39.720 --> 0:26:41.800
<v Speaker 1>So you could talk about hydrogen in terms of the weight.

0:26:42.080 --> 0:26:46.040
<v Speaker 1>So I talked about a kilogram of hydrogen, So that's

0:26:46.119 --> 0:26:48.280
<v Speaker 1>one way in which you can talk about I mentioned

0:26:48.280 --> 0:26:51.560
<v Speaker 1>be used one hundred seventeen million tons or one D

0:26:51.720 --> 0:26:55.240
<v Speaker 1>twenty million tons per year of hydrogen, so that's kilograms

0:26:55.640 --> 0:27:00.000
<v Speaker 1>tons units of weight. You could also talk about hydrogen

0:27:00.000 --> 0:27:02.399
<v Speaker 1>and in terms of the volumes I mentioned those hundred

0:27:02.480 --> 0:27:05.680
<v Speaker 1>and twenty million tons take up the volume roughly equivalent

0:27:05.760 --> 0:27:11.240
<v Speaker 1>to the two eleven dead seas. Now things get a

0:27:11.280 --> 0:27:15.439
<v Speaker 1>bit more complicated there though, because hydrogen is a gas,

0:27:15.560 --> 0:27:19.280
<v Speaker 1>and because it's a gas, how much volume it takes

0:27:19.400 --> 0:27:24.439
<v Speaker 1>up actually differs based on the pressure and the temperature.

0:27:24.560 --> 0:27:27.600
<v Speaker 1>So then you need to define if you're talking about

0:27:27.680 --> 0:27:30.040
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen in terms of its volume, you need to define

0:27:30.520 --> 0:27:33.480
<v Speaker 1>what pressure and temperature you're talking about at in order

0:27:33.520 --> 0:27:37.240
<v Speaker 1>to define the volume accurately. So then the volumetric units

0:27:37.320 --> 0:27:40.679
<v Speaker 1>used for hydrogen would be not cubic meters but normal

0:27:40.760 --> 0:27:45.280
<v Speaker 1>cubic meters, which would be one cubic meter of hydrogen

0:27:45.760 --> 0:27:51.000
<v Speaker 1>at zero degrees celsius and one atmospheric pressure. If you

0:27:51.040 --> 0:27:54.720
<v Speaker 1>want to be even confused even more, there's this other

0:27:54.840 --> 0:27:58.840
<v Speaker 1>unit called standard cubic meter of hydrogen, which is cubic

0:27:58.880 --> 0:28:01.520
<v Speaker 1>meter of hydrogen at one atmospheric pressure. That's the same,

0:28:01.720 --> 0:28:04.960
<v Speaker 1>but fifteen degrees celsius. So that means you've got a

0:28:04.960 --> 0:28:08.359
<v Speaker 1>bit less hydrogen in that cubic meter because it's warmer.

0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:11.440
<v Speaker 1>And then finally you could talk about hydrogen in terms

0:28:11.440 --> 0:28:14.879
<v Speaker 1>of its energy content. So I talked about one kilogram

0:28:14.880 --> 0:28:18.879
<v Speaker 1>of hydrogen containing thirty three kilo hours of energy if

0:28:18.880 --> 0:28:21.200
<v Speaker 1>you're talking at the low heating value, just a whole

0:28:21.200 --> 0:28:24.320
<v Speaker 1>a whole other kind of worms that probably not even

0:28:24.320 --> 0:28:27.520
<v Speaker 1>open at this point, or thirty nine point four kilo

0:28:27.560 --> 0:28:30.000
<v Speaker 1>what hours at the high heating value. So so you

0:28:30.040 --> 0:28:33.800
<v Speaker 1>can talk about that kilogram of hydrogen having an energy content.

0:28:33.960 --> 0:28:36.159
<v Speaker 1>So then when you burn that energy, burn that hydrogen

0:28:36.280 --> 0:28:39.800
<v Speaker 1>or process it's saying the fuel sell, then you can

0:28:39.920 --> 0:28:42.880
<v Speaker 1>end up with with the energy from that that that

0:28:43.000 --> 0:28:45.680
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen happens to contain. So there's these three different ways.

0:28:45.880 --> 0:28:48.280
<v Speaker 1>Of course, energy units would be kiloed hours or the

0:28:48.320 --> 0:28:51.479
<v Speaker 1>most basic units of course is the jewel for energy. Okay,

0:28:51.520 --> 0:28:53.280
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of different ways to measure this, so

0:28:53.320 --> 0:28:57.320
<v Speaker 1>basically look it up when you're when you're measuring hydrogen. Okay,

0:28:57.360 --> 0:29:02.240
<v Speaker 1>So we're talking about differ friend properties that hydrogen has

0:29:02.360 --> 0:29:05.080
<v Speaker 1>and also how we measure it, which I imagine inter

0:29:05.240 --> 0:29:07.720
<v Speaker 1>relates very much with one of the challenges that you

0:29:07.800 --> 0:29:11.360
<v Speaker 1>highlighted early on, which is transporting it, so not just

0:29:11.440 --> 0:29:14.200
<v Speaker 1>storing it, transporting and given it takes up so much space,

0:29:14.400 --> 0:29:16.719
<v Speaker 1>how is it currently transported? What are our what are

0:29:16.720 --> 0:29:19.400
<v Speaker 1>our options? So there's different ways in which you can

0:29:19.440 --> 0:29:22.680
<v Speaker 1>transport hydrogen. They're pretty similar to the ways in which

0:29:22.720 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 1>you can transport any other gas, like natural gas. So

0:29:27.440 --> 0:29:32.080
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen today typically is transported either using trucks, So then

0:29:32.120 --> 0:29:35.240
<v Speaker 1>you would need to compress it in that pressurized container.

0:29:35.320 --> 0:29:37.840
<v Speaker 1>Assuming you've got the same pressure, same temperature, you need

0:29:37.880 --> 0:29:42.360
<v Speaker 1>about three to four compressed hydrogen trucks compared to one

0:29:42.360 --> 0:29:45.000
<v Speaker 1>truck with compressed natural gas to transport the same amount

0:29:45.000 --> 0:29:48.120
<v Speaker 1>of energy. So that means, of course transporting hydrogen costs

0:29:48.160 --> 0:29:52.760
<v Speaker 1>more money than transporting natural gas. Very need of energy transported.

0:29:53.480 --> 0:29:56.760
<v Speaker 1>The same applies if you were to transport hydend by ship,

0:29:56.840 --> 0:30:00.680
<v Speaker 1>which is not done a lot today, unlike natural gas,

0:30:00.680 --> 0:30:03.720
<v Speaker 1>which is transport is energy quite quite commonly. You tend

0:30:03.760 --> 0:30:06.000
<v Speaker 1>to produce it and then ship it kind of within

0:30:06.080 --> 0:30:10.480
<v Speaker 1>the same continent today, yes, and of course then you

0:30:10.520 --> 0:30:13.320
<v Speaker 1>can pipe it. You can send it via pipeline. That

0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:16.040
<v Speaker 1>is by far the most efficient, the cheapest way if

0:30:16.080 --> 0:30:20.040
<v Speaker 1>you have a large volume of hydrogen to transport. So

0:30:20.080 --> 0:30:23.760
<v Speaker 1>they're about four thousand or five thousand kilometers of hydrogen

0:30:23.800 --> 0:30:27.480
<v Speaker 1>pipelines around the world today, that's several orders of magnitude

0:30:27.720 --> 0:30:32.480
<v Speaker 1>less than the natural gas pipeline network, So it's it's very,

0:30:32.640 --> 0:30:35.760
<v Speaker 1>very very tiny compared to natural gas. Now we're talking

0:30:35.800 --> 0:30:38.200
<v Speaker 1>about these natural gas pipelines. One of the things that

0:30:38.240 --> 0:30:41.360
<v Speaker 1>are in some of our forecasts is that the natural

0:30:41.440 --> 0:30:45.880
<v Speaker 1>gas industry will need to decrease some if we're actually

0:30:45.880 --> 0:30:48.240
<v Speaker 1>going to meet some of these emissions targets that many

0:30:48.240 --> 0:30:51.840
<v Speaker 1>countries have outlined. Is it even useful and economic to

0:30:51.920 --> 0:30:55.720
<v Speaker 1>think about the natural gas infrastructure as a potential solution

0:30:55.800 --> 0:30:59.520
<v Speaker 1>for hydrogen? I think it depends on the and use

0:31:00.160 --> 0:31:04.840
<v Speaker 1>of the hydrogen, so on the economic viability of hydrogen

0:31:04.920 --> 0:31:11.640
<v Speaker 1>in different sectors. If you ask companies that today transport

0:31:11.720 --> 0:31:18.440
<v Speaker 1>natural gas, say in European natural gas transmission operators, especially

0:31:18.440 --> 0:31:21.840
<v Speaker 1>if they happen to be in countries with net zero targets.

0:31:22.000 --> 0:31:26.880
<v Speaker 1>So again, European natural gas operate pipeline operators, they are

0:31:26.920 --> 0:31:31.320
<v Speaker 1>pretty keen on converting their pipelines to carry hydrogen. It

0:31:31.400 --> 0:31:34.920
<v Speaker 1>can be done. It costs some money, but it costs

0:31:34.960 --> 0:31:37.760
<v Speaker 1>less money than if you were to build a new

0:31:37.800 --> 0:31:41.400
<v Speaker 1>pipeline altogether. But of course the question is, once you're

0:31:41.400 --> 0:31:45.760
<v Speaker 1>transporting hydrogen instead of natural gas, who's buying that hydrogen?

0:31:45.840 --> 0:31:48.400
<v Speaker 1>So are you using that pipeline to to to its

0:31:48.440 --> 0:31:51.480
<v Speaker 1>full extent, and that really depends on the economics of

0:31:51.520 --> 0:31:54.480
<v Speaker 1>the final users. So if you're using it for industrial

0:31:54.520 --> 0:31:57.760
<v Speaker 1>purposes or some of those sectors that I've already said

0:31:57.800 --> 0:32:02.160
<v Speaker 1>are using hydrogen today already, then that might make sense.

0:32:02.520 --> 0:32:06.080
<v Speaker 1>But if you want to pipe that hydrogen to you know,

0:32:06.200 --> 0:32:09.440
<v Speaker 1>every gasoline station in the world because you think that

0:32:09.480 --> 0:32:12.520
<v Speaker 1>there's going to be a large demand for for hydrogen

0:32:12.920 --> 0:32:15.440
<v Speaker 1>cars in the future, for hydrogen from cars in the future,

0:32:15.640 --> 0:32:17.360
<v Speaker 1>then that might not works as well. So it really

0:32:17.400 --> 0:32:20.840
<v Speaker 1>depends on the final use. Now for a very short break,

0:32:20.960 --> 0:32:28.280
<v Speaker 1>stay with us. Let's get into the economics of hydrogen,

0:32:28.320 --> 0:32:31.280
<v Speaker 1>and this is something that we have been really do

0:32:31.600 --> 0:32:34.640
<v Speaker 1>like to spend some time doing. We've got several hydrogen

0:32:35.080 --> 0:32:39.520
<v Speaker 1>relevant pathways and our New Energy Outlook, and for the uninitiated,

0:32:39.600 --> 0:32:41.240
<v Speaker 1>this is a report that goes out to the year

0:32:41.960 --> 0:32:45.040
<v Speaker 1>where we look at the different possible scenarios for the

0:32:45.080 --> 0:32:49.200
<v Speaker 1>future of the energy and the energy transition. So within

0:32:49.360 --> 0:32:53.840
<v Speaker 1>this there are several variables that may impact the cost

0:32:53.920 --> 0:32:57.760
<v Speaker 1>of hydrogen. You mentioned before that in some circumstances you're

0:32:57.760 --> 0:33:01.880
<v Speaker 1>only you're getting much less energy out although you can

0:33:01.880 --> 0:33:05.000
<v Speaker 1>store it. Then what you put into it, Where does

0:33:05.080 --> 0:33:09.080
<v Speaker 1>this become economically viable? And what are the different inputs,

0:33:10.040 --> 0:33:11.880
<v Speaker 1>how they sit now and for the future. And I

0:33:11.880 --> 0:33:16.000
<v Speaker 1>guess let's start. Let's start with renewable electricity, because that

0:33:16.160 --> 0:33:18.240
<v Speaker 1>I think is the space where B and E. F

0:33:18.440 --> 0:33:22.320
<v Speaker 1>maybe first got extremely interested in this space. Let's start

0:33:22.400 --> 0:33:24.680
<v Speaker 1>with with gray hydrogen because that's the one that we're

0:33:24.760 --> 0:33:29.880
<v Speaker 1>using today the most. So gray hydrogen today, if you

0:33:29.920 --> 0:33:33.800
<v Speaker 1>were to produce it from relatively cheap natural gas, would

0:33:33.800 --> 0:33:38.240
<v Speaker 1>cost you around a dollar per kilograph. So that's really

0:33:38.240 --> 0:33:42.880
<v Speaker 1>a benchmark that the low carbon or zero carbon hydrogen

0:33:42.960 --> 0:33:46.960
<v Speaker 1>like hydrogen from renewables is going to have to undercut

0:33:48.000 --> 0:33:51.840
<v Speaker 1>in order to outcompete this, uh, gray hydrogen that we

0:33:52.000 --> 0:33:55.400
<v Speaker 1>use today. So a key question that we keep asking

0:33:55.400 --> 0:34:00.520
<v Speaker 1>ourselves is when will green hydrogen from renewable be able

0:34:00.560 --> 0:34:04.760
<v Speaker 1>to outcompete hydrogen from fossil fuels with and without common

0:34:04.840 --> 0:34:07.800
<v Speaker 1>capture and storage and telling the future is difficult, but

0:34:08.120 --> 0:34:10.759
<v Speaker 1>I think you've probably got a good guess. Yeah, So

0:34:10.800 --> 0:34:13.480
<v Speaker 1>there are really three factors in our view. I mean,

0:34:13.480 --> 0:34:15.759
<v Speaker 1>there's there's an infinite amount of factors, but really three

0:34:15.800 --> 0:34:19.200
<v Speaker 1>key factors that determine the cost of hydrogen from renewables.

0:34:20.040 --> 0:34:22.719
<v Speaker 1>The most important one of them is the cost of

0:34:22.719 --> 0:34:26.600
<v Speaker 1>the renewable electricity that you're using to produce the hydrogen.

0:34:27.520 --> 0:34:30.920
<v Speaker 1>Then there's the cost of the electrolyzer, which is that

0:34:31.040 --> 0:34:35.920
<v Speaker 1>device that takes water and electricity and produces hydrogen oxygen.

0:34:36.560 --> 0:34:41.600
<v Speaker 1>And then it's the capacity factor off that electrolyzer. So

0:34:41.640 --> 0:34:45.400
<v Speaker 1>how many hours in a year is that electual electrolyzer operating,

0:34:45.400 --> 0:34:49.239
<v Speaker 1>which of course does not have to be all the

0:34:49.320 --> 0:34:52.760
<v Speaker 1>time if you're powering it from renewab electricity. So starting

0:34:52.760 --> 0:34:56.080
<v Speaker 1>with renewable electricity, those costs, of course, that's something that

0:34:56.120 --> 0:35:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the ANF has been following since we started back into

0:35:00.000 --> 0:35:03.480
<v Speaker 1>a thousand four. Costs of PB have fallen so much

0:35:03.520 --> 0:35:06.440
<v Speaker 1>that by now it's the cheapest source of electricity if

0:35:06.440 --> 0:35:08.520
<v Speaker 1>you are to build a new power plant in most

0:35:08.520 --> 0:35:12.320
<v Speaker 1>of the world, and we expect these costs to continue

0:35:12.320 --> 0:35:17.080
<v Speaker 1>falling so roughly. For ever redoubling in the cumulative installed

0:35:17.120 --> 0:35:22.520
<v Speaker 1>capacity of solar PV modules, we would expect about reduction

0:35:23.160 --> 0:35:28.640
<v Speaker 1>in their cost. For onshore wind the story is very similar.

0:35:28.680 --> 0:35:31.719
<v Speaker 1>The cost reduction curve is the experienced curve is not

0:35:31.800 --> 0:35:34.919
<v Speaker 1>as steep as for solar, but the cost are set

0:35:35.000 --> 0:35:38.360
<v Speaker 1>to continue falling, so renewable costs definitely coming down, and

0:35:38.480 --> 0:35:43.360
<v Speaker 1>already pretty cheap electorallyzer costs. There's a really that's a

0:35:43.400 --> 0:35:49.840
<v Speaker 1>really interesting story. In China today electorallyzes cost about less

0:35:50.000 --> 0:35:54.080
<v Speaker 1>than what they cost in Europe and in North America,

0:35:55.760 --> 0:35:59.960
<v Speaker 1>which kind of shows us. Now, if you're producing alcohol

0:36:00.000 --> 0:36:03.320
<v Speaker 1>and electualized, so there's a simplest technology for for hydrogen production.

0:36:03.400 --> 0:36:08.680
<v Speaker 1>Forellectualizes at scale, you've got large customers and cheap production.

0:36:08.760 --> 0:36:11.919
<v Speaker 1>You can already get this low. So it's scale that's

0:36:11.920 --> 0:36:15.560
<v Speaker 1>making this so much cheaper. It's the scale. It's cheaper labor.

0:36:15.640 --> 0:36:18.279
<v Speaker 1>Of course in China. China, the same way that China

0:36:18.360 --> 0:36:23.000
<v Speaker 1>today produces the cheapest alkaline electualizes also produces the cheapest

0:36:23.040 --> 0:36:25.600
<v Speaker 1>solar channels. That's why it's producing eighty percent of all

0:36:25.600 --> 0:36:30.480
<v Speaker 1>solar solar modules in the world. So those costs that

0:36:30.520 --> 0:36:32.800
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing in China are not yet necessarily available in

0:36:32.840 --> 0:36:34.879
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world. But we're expecting these costs

0:36:34.920 --> 0:36:37.400
<v Speaker 1>to converge one way or another. Either we're going to

0:36:37.400 --> 0:36:39.719
<v Speaker 1>see Chinese companies take over the world the same way

0:36:39.760 --> 0:36:43.800
<v Speaker 1>they did with solar selling it to everyone yep, exactly,

0:36:44.000 --> 0:36:47.600
<v Speaker 1>or we could see Western companies managing to reduce their

0:36:47.640 --> 0:36:52.200
<v Speaker 1>costs enough to be able to compete with with Chinese companies.

0:36:52.239 --> 0:36:54.440
<v Speaker 1>That we're starting to see signs of both of this

0:36:54.560 --> 0:36:57.680
<v Speaker 1>happening at the same time. So it's definitely we're still

0:36:57.719 --> 0:37:00.080
<v Speaker 1>not not being not able to say which one of

0:37:00.200 --> 0:37:06.560
<v Speaker 1>these possible scenarios might happen, but electrolyzing costs definitely coming down.

0:37:06.640 --> 0:37:09.360
<v Speaker 1>Even those costs that we're seeing today in China still

0:37:09.400 --> 0:37:13.080
<v Speaker 1>have room to fall even further. And then finally you've

0:37:13.120 --> 0:37:16.479
<v Speaker 1>got those capacity factors, So how many percent of the year,

0:37:16.840 --> 0:37:19.520
<v Speaker 1>how many hours in the year is that electrolyzer running,

0:37:19.800 --> 0:37:23.400
<v Speaker 1>which of course most importantly depends on what is powering it.

0:37:23.480 --> 0:37:25.720
<v Speaker 1>So if you're if you've got a one hundred megawat

0:37:25.800 --> 0:37:29.719
<v Speaker 1>electoralizer connected to a one hundred mega what solar p

0:37:29.920 --> 0:37:32.720
<v Speaker 1>D plant, then that electrolyzing is going to be running

0:37:32.719 --> 0:37:36.759
<v Speaker 1>in exactly the same hours as that pp plan, So

0:37:36.800 --> 0:37:39.319
<v Speaker 1>it might be running twenty of the time if you're

0:37:39.440 --> 0:37:42.799
<v Speaker 1>if you're say in Japan we're based today, could be

0:37:42.840 --> 0:37:45.000
<v Speaker 1>a bit more. If you're in sunnier places, could be

0:37:45.040 --> 0:37:47.160
<v Speaker 1>a bit less. If you're in less sunny places. But

0:37:47.280 --> 0:37:50.160
<v Speaker 1>you could optimize this further. You could combine your solar

0:37:50.239 --> 0:37:53.839
<v Speaker 1>with wind. You could build a bigger solar factor of

0:37:53.920 --> 0:37:58.000
<v Speaker 1>the solar generated. Then you've got your electroalizer, and then

0:37:58.040 --> 0:38:01.759
<v Speaker 1>you're increasing your capacity factors. Of said it's an optimization exercise.

0:38:01.840 --> 0:38:06.120
<v Speaker 1>The bigger your generated, the higher your capital expenses. But

0:38:06.200 --> 0:38:08.480
<v Speaker 1>then the more you hyd the more hydrogen you also produce.

0:38:09.200 --> 0:38:12.240
<v Speaker 1>So the question is, you know, what's the relative size

0:38:12.280 --> 0:38:15.640
<v Speaker 1>of your power plants to your electrolyze, But that can

0:38:15.680 --> 0:38:19.360
<v Speaker 1>definitely be optimized. So then you could breach capacity factors

0:38:19.680 --> 0:38:24.279
<v Speaker 1>upwards of safe fifty percent for renewable hydrogen. And is

0:38:24.320 --> 0:38:26.719
<v Speaker 1>this in the near term or is this sort of

0:38:27.200 --> 0:38:30.200
<v Speaker 1>fifteen years in the future. You think that these technologies

0:38:30.239 --> 0:38:33.840
<v Speaker 1>and cost clients could be optimized. Well, so this optimization

0:38:34.200 --> 0:38:36.319
<v Speaker 1>it's already being done. A lot of the projects that

0:38:36.320 --> 0:38:43.320
<v Speaker 1>are being announced today there already planning to use solar

0:38:43.400 --> 0:38:47.279
<v Speaker 1>and wind, which conveniently, in many locations, wind tends to

0:38:47.280 --> 0:38:49.680
<v Speaker 1>blow more at night than during the day, So then

0:38:49.719 --> 0:38:53.160
<v Speaker 1>when your solar plant is shut down because it's dark,

0:38:53.680 --> 0:38:56.560
<v Speaker 1>your wind plant is generating a bit more. And then

0:38:57.000 --> 0:38:59.480
<v Speaker 1>some are planning to add batteries as well, and of course,

0:39:00.200 --> 0:39:02.840
<v Speaker 1>the cost of all of this is coming coming down,

0:39:03.280 --> 0:39:08.600
<v Speaker 1>which means that oversizing your renewables facility compared to your

0:39:08.719 --> 0:39:12.400
<v Speaker 1>electoralizer is going to become become the standard. In in

0:39:12.400 --> 0:39:15.160
<v Speaker 1>our opinion, it's already happening. When we're looking at the

0:39:15.160 --> 0:39:17.920
<v Speaker 1>color wheel of hydrogen and we're thinking about what the

0:39:17.960 --> 0:39:21.640
<v Speaker 1>future cost of clients are. We've talked about the gray

0:39:21.760 --> 0:39:24.480
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen or the without any sort of carbon debatement, and

0:39:24.480 --> 0:39:27.080
<v Speaker 1>then we've talked about the green and the renewable energy

0:39:27.120 --> 0:39:29.680
<v Speaker 1>focused hydrogen. What some of the potential is there? What

0:39:29.760 --> 0:39:33.279
<v Speaker 1>about other areas? Are there cost declients for nuclear and

0:39:33.360 --> 0:39:35.640
<v Speaker 1>this pink red, whatever color you want to call it,

0:39:35.840 --> 0:39:38.160
<v Speaker 1>for some of the other areas that are given. There's

0:39:38.200 --> 0:39:41.440
<v Speaker 1>so many different ways to make hydrogen, so that's something

0:39:41.480 --> 0:39:45.520
<v Speaker 1>that we're looking at right now. Nuclear hydrogen produced from

0:39:45.560 --> 0:39:49.680
<v Speaker 1>nuclear would have the advantage of running pretty much constantly,

0:39:49.800 --> 0:39:53.080
<v Speaker 1>so you're electoralizer would be running, you know, if not

0:39:53.120 --> 0:39:56.040
<v Speaker 1>one of the time, then it would have very little

0:39:56.080 --> 0:39:59.120
<v Speaker 1>downtime compared to if it's running on on renewables. Because

0:39:59.239 --> 0:40:03.280
<v Speaker 1>nuclear powers producing constantly, but nuclear power is pretty expensive,

0:40:03.960 --> 0:40:07.600
<v Speaker 1>so in our view, and we're just writing a report

0:40:07.640 --> 0:40:09.879
<v Speaker 1>on this, so I can't really go into too much

0:40:09.960 --> 0:40:14.560
<v Speaker 1>depth until we've published it. For for hydrogen from fossil fuels,

0:40:14.600 --> 0:40:17.600
<v Speaker 1>the most important factor is the cost of the fossil fuel.

0:40:18.120 --> 0:40:21.120
<v Speaker 1>So if fossil fuels get really really cheap for some reason,

0:40:21.680 --> 0:40:25.719
<v Speaker 1>then hydrogen from fossil fuels with or without ccs could

0:40:25.800 --> 0:40:28.480
<v Speaker 1>get cheaper. But of course more likely than not, we're like,

0:40:28.600 --> 0:40:31.279
<v Speaker 1>we're going to see some form of carbon pricing, etcetera.

0:40:31.640 --> 0:40:34.399
<v Speaker 1>So if anything, hygroen from fossil fuels is probably going

0:40:34.400 --> 0:40:38.200
<v Speaker 1>to get more expensive rather than cheaper over time. So

0:40:38.360 --> 0:40:40.919
<v Speaker 1>when you when you sum it all up, we've got

0:40:41.120 --> 0:40:44.560
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen from renewables, which today is by far more expensive

0:40:44.600 --> 0:40:47.160
<v Speaker 1>than producing hagron from fossil fuels. That's why we're producing

0:40:47.160 --> 0:40:50.440
<v Speaker 1>it from fossil fuels today. But by twenty thirty, in

0:40:50.520 --> 0:40:52.880
<v Speaker 1>most countries that we've modeled, or really all the countries

0:40:52.920 --> 0:40:55.319
<v Speaker 1>that we've modeled, it will we think it will be

0:40:55.360 --> 0:41:00.440
<v Speaker 1>possible to produce hasian from renewables cheaper than hydrogen from

0:41:00.440 --> 0:41:04.840
<v Speaker 1>fossil fuels with common capture and storage. And soon after that,

0:41:04.960 --> 0:41:09.240
<v Speaker 1>and certainly before we think that one dollar per kilogram,

0:41:09.320 --> 0:41:13.840
<v Speaker 1>which it costs today in the cheapest, cheapest countries, cheapest

0:41:13.840 --> 0:41:17.840
<v Speaker 1>places to produce gray hydrogen, we'll we'll see green hydrogen

0:41:17.880 --> 0:41:20.440
<v Speaker 1>cheaper than that in a lot of a lot of countries.

0:41:20.440 --> 0:41:24.000
<v Speaker 1>So every country of Model twenty countries and all of them,

0:41:24.040 --> 0:41:27.000
<v Speaker 1>it will be cheaper to produce hydron from renewable stent

0:41:27.040 --> 0:41:31.080
<v Speaker 1>from fossil fuels. So, Martin, you mentioned carbon prices, and

0:41:31.120 --> 0:41:35.160
<v Speaker 1>we've just discussed the economics of the production side of things.

0:41:35.400 --> 0:41:39.400
<v Speaker 1>But within the carbon prices space that one and what

0:41:39.480 --> 0:41:43.520
<v Speaker 1>other mechanimsidence may exist over on the policymaker side to

0:41:43.600 --> 0:41:47.800
<v Speaker 1>try and accelerate the adoption of hydrogen should we believe

0:41:47.840 --> 0:41:50.680
<v Speaker 1>that this is an important part of decarbonization for the

0:41:50.760 --> 0:41:54.880
<v Speaker 1>hard to abad sectors. So carbon prices are absolutely essential.

0:41:55.400 --> 0:41:58.640
<v Speaker 1>Without carbon pricing, but we're not going to see hydrogen

0:41:58.680 --> 0:42:04.960
<v Speaker 1>demand a cup in most places. And there aren't many

0:42:05.000 --> 0:42:08.480
<v Speaker 1>countries today with very high carbon prices or many markets

0:42:08.600 --> 0:42:12.080
<v Speaker 1>the the EU, the UK, and the u e t S.

0:42:12.520 --> 0:42:15.520
<v Speaker 1>We we've seen some record prices this year, you know,

0:42:15.640 --> 0:42:21.920
<v Speaker 1>fifty sixty dollars per ton, potentially rising even further by

0:42:21.960 --> 0:42:25.360
<v Speaker 1>twenty thirty. They could they could get above a hundred

0:42:26.080 --> 0:42:30.080
<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars per ton in Canada. They could get above

0:42:30.440 --> 0:42:34.120
<v Speaker 1>a hundred dollars per ton by twenty thirty, assuming that

0:42:34.239 --> 0:42:37.480
<v Speaker 1>the current government stays in power as an election in Canada.

0:42:37.920 --> 0:42:39.440
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if it's going to happen before or

0:42:39.440 --> 0:42:44.840
<v Speaker 1>after this UH this UH podcast is out, but it

0:42:44.960 --> 0:42:48.360
<v Speaker 1>will determine the economics of hydrogen as well, because without

0:42:48.800 --> 0:42:50.960
<v Speaker 1>the carbon price of at least I would say a

0:42:51.040 --> 0:42:55.440
<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars per ton c O two, it's unlikely that

0:42:55.480 --> 0:42:59.120
<v Speaker 1>we would see hydrogen from renewables or any hydrogen being

0:42:59.120 --> 0:43:03.760
<v Speaker 1>competitive against existing fossil fuels. That's why we're using fossil

0:43:03.760 --> 0:43:05.719
<v Speaker 1>fuels today in most of these sectors, and that's why

0:43:05.760 --> 0:43:08.640
<v Speaker 1>they're had to abate, so carbon prices will be essential,

0:43:09.000 --> 0:43:11.480
<v Speaker 1>and there aren't that many markets today that are on

0:43:11.560 --> 0:43:14.920
<v Speaker 1>track to have carbon prices high enough for hydrogen to

0:43:14.920 --> 0:43:18.200
<v Speaker 1>be competitive. Okay, So Martin, you identify seven signposts that

0:43:18.239 --> 0:43:22.120
<v Speaker 1>we should be monitoring as we are looking at hydrogen

0:43:22.120 --> 0:43:24.560
<v Speaker 1>development and the potential that it could have in the future.

0:43:24.920 --> 0:43:27.640
<v Speaker 1>And there are three that you specifically called out as

0:43:27.680 --> 0:43:30.120
<v Speaker 1>areas where we have made some progress. So why don't

0:43:30.160 --> 0:43:32.839
<v Speaker 1>we go into those in more details. So the three

0:43:32.880 --> 0:43:35.520
<v Speaker 1>that I've pulled out are not necessarily the most critical ones,

0:43:35.560 --> 0:43:38.400
<v Speaker 1>so they're the ones that we've seen progress on. So

0:43:38.480 --> 0:43:44.040
<v Speaker 1>when we published our first market outlook on hydrogen in March,

0:43:45.040 --> 0:43:48.759
<v Speaker 1>we concluded that this time is different for hydrogen. So

0:43:48.880 --> 0:43:51.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, I talked at the beginning about this, these

0:43:51.200 --> 0:43:55.360
<v Speaker 1>different waves throughout history of of use, of interest in

0:43:55.480 --> 0:43:58.920
<v Speaker 1>using hydrogen for sake cars or for its energy, and

0:43:58.960 --> 0:44:03.040
<v Speaker 1>how they never really deialized, and we concluded in this

0:44:03.080 --> 0:44:06.400
<v Speaker 1>time is different, but we're not yet there, and to

0:44:06.520 --> 0:44:11.400
<v Speaker 1>get there, we would need these seven signposts that we

0:44:11.400 --> 0:44:13.840
<v Speaker 1>would need to achieve these seven signposts in order for

0:44:14.280 --> 0:44:20.480
<v Speaker 1>to maximize the use of hydrogen. And what really surprised

0:44:20.560 --> 0:44:24.280
<v Speaker 1>us is that since March when we published that Market outlook,

0:44:24.719 --> 0:44:28.719
<v Speaker 1>three of these signposts have seen significant progress. And the

0:44:28.800 --> 0:44:33.120
<v Speaker 1>first one are net zero climate targets. So by now,

0:44:33.560 --> 0:44:39.000
<v Speaker 1>are as of June of this year, seventy of global

0:44:39.000 --> 0:44:42.920
<v Speaker 1>emissions were covered by some form of net zero either

0:44:43.400 --> 0:44:49.160
<v Speaker 1>legislative target or at least under official discussions to legislate

0:44:49.280 --> 0:44:52.200
<v Speaker 1>some net zero target. So that's that's a lot of

0:44:52.239 --> 0:44:54.239
<v Speaker 1>a lot of emissions that are already under under a

0:44:54.320 --> 0:44:57.360
<v Speaker 1>netzero target. Now, why isn't it real important as opposed

0:44:57.400 --> 0:45:02.080
<v Speaker 1>to say reduction which I'm based out of Japan. Japan

0:45:02.120 --> 0:45:05.280
<v Speaker 1>had an eighty percent emissions reduction target before it announced

0:45:05.280 --> 0:45:07.160
<v Speaker 1>the net zero target at the end of last year.

0:45:08.000 --> 0:45:10.160
<v Speaker 1>Because we mentioned at the beginning, or you mentioned in

0:45:10.200 --> 0:45:15.080
<v Speaker 1>the beginning, hydrogen is really could really have potential in

0:45:15.120 --> 0:45:18.080
<v Speaker 1>those hard to abate sectors, the hardest to abate ones.

0:45:18.160 --> 0:45:21.520
<v Speaker 1>So if you reduce your emissions by eight then guests

0:45:21.560 --> 0:45:24.600
<v Speaker 1>which once you would not be touching it would be

0:45:24.640 --> 0:45:28.000
<v Speaker 1>exactly those that have the highest potential for hydrogen. So

0:45:28.080 --> 0:45:30.720
<v Speaker 1>if you're moving from eight percent reduction to a hundred

0:45:30.719 --> 0:45:34.759
<v Speaker 1>percent reduction and emissions, that's where really the potential for

0:45:34.920 --> 0:45:39.200
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen is multiplied quite quite significant. And as we head

0:45:39.200 --> 0:45:43.520
<v Speaker 1>into Cup in November in Glasgow, this really does take

0:45:43.600 --> 0:45:47.600
<v Speaker 1>center stage because, as you pointed out, an increasing number

0:45:47.600 --> 0:45:49.840
<v Speaker 1>of countries and I don't think we've probably seen the

0:45:49.840 --> 0:45:52.840
<v Speaker 1>finish line on this. We definitely wouldn't get to the

0:45:52.840 --> 0:45:55.439
<v Speaker 1>goals of the IPCC has if we've reached the finish line.

0:45:55.480 --> 0:45:58.359
<v Speaker 1>So let's um, let's see what happens. Okay, So then

0:45:58.400 --> 0:46:00.920
<v Speaker 1>the other signs of life that you've seen here. So

0:46:00.960 --> 0:46:03.239
<v Speaker 1>another one we said is that countries would need to

0:46:03.239 --> 0:46:07.920
<v Speaker 1>set up We called it targets with investment mechanisms. Really

0:46:08.239 --> 0:46:11.759
<v Speaker 1>what we meant by that was a country with a

0:46:11.840 --> 0:46:14.719
<v Speaker 1>clear plan for what it's going to use hydrogen four

0:46:14.800 --> 0:46:20.279
<v Speaker 1>and why, and enough money to subsidize that hydrogen so

0:46:20.360 --> 0:46:24.319
<v Speaker 1>that it can eventually be be competitive or or enough

0:46:24.440 --> 0:46:27.759
<v Speaker 1>enough policies to to make it competitive. And now we

0:46:27.840 --> 0:46:34.400
<v Speaker 1>have over forty countries that have a hydrogen strategy or roadmap,

0:46:34.520 --> 0:46:36.440
<v Speaker 1>or you know, they call it differently. India calls it

0:46:36.480 --> 0:46:41.480
<v Speaker 1>the Hydrogen National Mission, and the US calls it the

0:46:41.560 --> 0:46:45.719
<v Speaker 1>Hydrogen Earth Shot, but you know, we call it hydrogen strategies.

0:46:45.840 --> 0:46:49.239
<v Speaker 1>There's more than forty countries now that either already have

0:46:49.400 --> 0:46:53.719
<v Speaker 1>one or are developing one, and some of them are

0:46:53.800 --> 0:46:59.680
<v Speaker 1>putting some pretty significant funds too to back up there

0:46:59.719 --> 0:47:02.000
<v Speaker 1>were It's not not all of them, but now we're

0:47:02.000 --> 0:47:05.359
<v Speaker 1>seeing the UK recently having announced strategy with some pretty

0:47:05.400 --> 0:47:09.920
<v Speaker 1>significant funding, the some some European countries of pretty strong funding.

0:47:10.640 --> 0:47:15.480
<v Speaker 1>And if the bill that's being discussed in the US

0:47:16.880 --> 0:47:20.280
<v Speaker 1>right now passes, then the US could have some pretty

0:47:20.320 --> 0:47:24.440
<v Speaker 1>strong incentives for the production of clean hydrogen if if

0:47:24.480 --> 0:47:28.000
<v Speaker 1>that passes, and then the last one you've seen signs

0:47:28.040 --> 0:47:31.960
<v Speaker 1>of life is industrial decarbonization incentives are being put in place.

0:47:32.520 --> 0:47:36.120
<v Speaker 1>So why industrial decorganization incentives because a lot of the

0:47:36.160 --> 0:47:40.799
<v Speaker 1>sectors where we expect hydrogen to have to to be

0:47:40.880 --> 0:47:46.800
<v Speaker 1>economical in the future with carbon pricing, of course, would

0:47:46.840 --> 0:47:54.840
<v Speaker 1>be industrial sectors including methanol, ammonia and steel production, aluminum production,

0:47:54.920 --> 0:47:58.880
<v Speaker 1>cement production for example. So if you have policies to

0:47:59.000 --> 0:48:02.719
<v Speaker 1>decarbonize the sectors and those are the hard to abate sectors,

0:48:03.400 --> 0:48:07.360
<v Speaker 1>then you're more likely to see high use of hydrogen

0:48:07.719 --> 0:48:10.560
<v Speaker 1>here they are again hard to abate sectors. That yeah,

0:48:10.600 --> 0:48:12.560
<v Speaker 1>there you go, the how to abate sectors and these

0:48:12.560 --> 0:48:16.160
<v Speaker 1>are that That's why industrial policies, industrial decomganization policies really

0:48:16.160 --> 0:48:19.960
<v Speaker 1>we could say dec organization policies for how to abate sacties.

0:48:20.239 --> 0:48:22.440
<v Speaker 1>It's it's pretty much one and the same thing really,

0:48:23.000 --> 0:48:26.520
<v Speaker 1>But right now there isn't all that much progress. So

0:48:26.560 --> 0:48:28.799
<v Speaker 1>we did a study being AFTED a study in in

0:48:28.920 --> 0:48:33.200
<v Speaker 1>February of this year where we ranked the G twenty

0:48:33.239 --> 0:48:38.160
<v Speaker 1>countries on a whole different number of indicators, including progress

0:48:38.239 --> 0:48:42.920
<v Speaker 1>on industrial decomganization policies and none of those countries, not

0:48:43.480 --> 0:48:46.400
<v Speaker 1>no G twenty countries called scored the best score that

0:48:46.440 --> 0:48:49.239
<v Speaker 1>we've had. So so that's the strong score where you

0:48:49.280 --> 0:48:53.640
<v Speaker 1>know they would have more than sixty six percent of

0:48:53.640 --> 0:48:57.840
<v Speaker 1>of of the um of the milestones that we that

0:48:57.880 --> 0:49:00.279
<v Speaker 1>we think they should hit that they have that, so

0:49:00.320 --> 0:49:02.920
<v Speaker 1>no country has actually achieved that. By the UK and

0:49:03.000 --> 0:49:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Germany are two countries that got very close and they've

0:49:07.080 --> 0:49:12.239
<v Speaker 1>been strengthening their policies to the comgonized industry, so that's

0:49:12.239 --> 0:49:14.960
<v Speaker 1>where we might see a lot of progress. And that's

0:49:14.960 --> 0:49:17.040
<v Speaker 1>exactly also the kind of countries where we're seeing the

0:49:17.080 --> 0:49:21.000
<v Speaker 1>most projects being announced on the industrial side to to

0:49:21.120 --> 0:49:24.040
<v Speaker 1>use to use, to use hydrogen industry. So there is

0:49:24.080 --> 0:49:28.280
<v Speaker 1>a correlation between carbon pricing, between net zero targets, between

0:49:28.360 --> 0:49:33.360
<v Speaker 1>industrial recoganization policies, between funding and where projects are actually

0:49:33.360 --> 0:49:37.280
<v Speaker 1>being announced today. So let's talk more about the future

0:49:37.680 --> 0:49:40.920
<v Speaker 1>and where we see hydrogen going. We've we've figured out

0:49:41.239 --> 0:49:43.000
<v Speaker 1>what well, no, we haven't figured it out, but we

0:49:43.080 --> 0:49:46.160
<v Speaker 1>have an idea of how it's currently produced, how it

0:49:46.200 --> 0:49:48.400
<v Speaker 1>could be produced, where some of the cost of clients

0:49:48.400 --> 0:49:52.000
<v Speaker 1>are coming from. What is the potential demand to be

0:49:52.080 --> 0:49:55.200
<v Speaker 1>using this in the future, and where do you see

0:49:55.239 --> 0:49:57.879
<v Speaker 1>as a hydrogen analyst, where do you see this industry going?

0:49:58.600 --> 0:50:01.320
<v Speaker 1>How much hydrogen we you is really going to depend

0:50:01.440 --> 0:50:06.840
<v Speaker 1>on two factors, and that's whether and how we decide

0:50:07.120 --> 0:50:10.160
<v Speaker 1>to de carbonized. So first, starting with the question of

0:50:10.280 --> 0:50:13.799
<v Speaker 1>whether or the extent to which we decided to de carbonize,

0:50:14.239 --> 0:50:17.200
<v Speaker 1>I've already talked about if we do reach net zero,

0:50:17.600 --> 0:50:20.920
<v Speaker 1>then we're more likely to use more hydrogen than if

0:50:20.960 --> 0:50:24.080
<v Speaker 1>we don't reach net zero. So net zero is absolutely essential.

0:50:24.360 --> 0:50:26.719
<v Speaker 1>So now let's say that if we assume that that

0:50:26.840 --> 0:50:29.600
<v Speaker 1>we do reach net zero, then there's still different ways

0:50:29.640 --> 0:50:33.160
<v Speaker 1>in which we could reach reach that goal. It could

0:50:33.200 --> 0:50:36.640
<v Speaker 1>be with lots of renewab electricity and the h and

0:50:36.800 --> 0:50:41.680
<v Speaker 1>the green hydrogen. It could be with lots of nuclear electricity.

0:50:41.840 --> 0:50:45.040
<v Speaker 1>You know, if if the world decides to build a

0:50:45.080 --> 0:50:47.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of nuclear No, right now, it doesn't seem like

0:50:47.680 --> 0:50:50.560
<v Speaker 1>a likely option, but it might happen. Or it could

0:50:50.560 --> 0:50:53.160
<v Speaker 1>be with a lot of ccs for example, carbon capture

0:50:53.200 --> 0:50:57.600
<v Speaker 1>and storage while continuing to use existing fossil fuels, or

0:50:57.640 --> 0:51:01.000
<v Speaker 1>a combination of these scenarios. So in our work in

0:51:01.040 --> 0:51:05.720
<v Speaker 1>the New Energy Outlook twenty one, which we published earlier

0:51:05.760 --> 0:51:09.680
<v Speaker 1>in the year. We have these three scenarios for hydrogen

0:51:09.800 --> 0:51:13.080
<v Speaker 1>use in the future, and in the most optimistic scenario

0:51:13.200 --> 0:51:16.120
<v Speaker 1>for hydrogen with this one that we call the green scenario,

0:51:16.680 --> 0:51:21.960
<v Speaker 1>we use about eleven times as much hydrogen in twenty

0:51:22.080 --> 0:51:25.920
<v Speaker 1>fifty as we use today. So I talked about eleven

0:51:26.520 --> 0:51:30.080
<v Speaker 1>dead seas full of hydrogen or they being used today,

0:51:30.560 --> 0:51:34.320
<v Speaker 1>we'd be using one twenty one dead seas full of hydrogen.

0:51:35.080 --> 0:51:38.640
<v Speaker 1>By We're gonna have to pick a different ocean I think,

0:51:38.960 --> 0:51:42.800
<v Speaker 1>or difference. Yeah, maybe maybe one of the Great Lakes

0:51:42.800 --> 0:51:46.480
<v Speaker 1>would would fit better for that. So so definitely a

0:51:46.480 --> 0:51:49.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of hydrogen we could be using if that's the

0:51:49.560 --> 0:51:51.600
<v Speaker 1>method in which we choose to recognized. Now, how do

0:51:51.680 --> 0:51:54.800
<v Speaker 1>we choose to recognized? It's a really really important, uh

0:51:54.920 --> 0:51:57.160
<v Speaker 1>and good question because hydrogen is not only going to

0:51:57.239 --> 0:52:01.120
<v Speaker 1>have to outcompete fossil fuels, it's also going to have

0:52:01.200 --> 0:52:07.440
<v Speaker 1>to outcompete all the other technologies that could be there

0:52:07.480 --> 0:52:10.799
<v Speaker 1>to help us decarbonize. So it's really going to be

0:52:10.920 --> 0:52:14.800
<v Speaker 1>very sector dependent in my in my view, so for example,

0:52:15.400 --> 0:52:18.400
<v Speaker 1>in UM some of the sectors, hydrogen is going to

0:52:18.440 --> 0:52:20.640
<v Speaker 1>be pretty much unavoidable. We're not going to be able

0:52:20.680 --> 0:52:24.920
<v Speaker 1>to go on without using green hydrogen in those sectors,

0:52:24.920 --> 0:52:26.800
<v Speaker 1>and those are the ones that we that where hydrogen

0:52:26.880 --> 0:52:31.840
<v Speaker 1>is being used today, right, So that's ammonia production, methanol production,

0:52:31.920 --> 0:52:35.960
<v Speaker 1>for example. There are others where the potential for hygen

0:52:36.040 --> 0:52:38.840
<v Speaker 1>is pretty high because the carbon price needed is pretty

0:52:38.840 --> 0:52:41.399
<v Speaker 1>load for it to be competitive. Plus all the other

0:52:41.440 --> 0:52:45.520
<v Speaker 1>options are either than early stage or more expensive today.

0:52:45.560 --> 0:52:49.279
<v Speaker 1>So that's things like steel production, aluminum production. And then

0:52:49.320 --> 0:52:52.239
<v Speaker 1>you've got the other end of the spectrum where be

0:52:52.360 --> 0:52:56.920
<v Speaker 1>Any keeps saying this, uh, but we really don't see

0:52:57.160 --> 0:53:02.120
<v Speaker 1>passenger cars running on hydrogen be in something very big

0:53:02.600 --> 0:53:05.880
<v Speaker 1>going forward. Talked about the idea of using hygroen for

0:53:05.960 --> 0:53:09.279
<v Speaker 1>cars being there since at least nineteen seventies. By now

0:53:09.320 --> 0:53:12.840
<v Speaker 1>we've got thirty thousand cars that run on hydrogen globally.

0:53:13.040 --> 0:53:16.799
<v Speaker 1>That's nothing compared that to twelve million cars that run

0:53:16.840 --> 0:53:19.319
<v Speaker 1>on batteries. And those cars that run on batteries are

0:53:19.400 --> 0:53:22.279
<v Speaker 1>much cheaper both the fuel because of course, if the

0:53:22.320 --> 0:53:26.000
<v Speaker 1>fuel is produced from electricity using electricity directly, whereas if

0:53:26.000 --> 0:53:28.600
<v Speaker 1>you're producing hydrogen from electricity, you've got all those losses

0:53:28.600 --> 0:53:30.920
<v Speaker 1>that I talked about earlier. So the fuel and the

0:53:30.920 --> 0:53:33.480
<v Speaker 1>car are cheaper, and you've got more charging points, and

0:53:33.600 --> 0:53:37.280
<v Speaker 1>you've got refueling stations as about six d refueling stations

0:53:37.719 --> 0:53:41.319
<v Speaker 1>around the world compared to millions of charging points, So

0:53:41.360 --> 0:53:45.000
<v Speaker 1>it's a very very different UH situation. So there are

0:53:45.040 --> 0:53:49.520
<v Speaker 1>sectors where we expect hydrogen to be high potential unavoidable,

0:53:49.560 --> 0:53:53.520
<v Speaker 1>other sectors where it's really not going to be competitive

0:53:53.520 --> 0:53:58.040
<v Speaker 1>against other options. But overall, we could potentially be seeing

0:53:58.520 --> 0:54:04.239
<v Speaker 1>anywhere between a doubling of hydrogen used from today if

0:54:04.280 --> 0:54:08.240
<v Speaker 1>we UH in the low scenario, to not that eleven

0:54:08.280 --> 0:54:11.279
<v Speaker 1>times growth in that very high scenario more likely where

0:54:11.320 --> 0:54:13.759
<v Speaker 1>somewhere we gonna end up somewhere in the middle. So

0:54:13.840 --> 0:54:17.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm unlikely to get picked up in my hydrogen fueled

0:54:17.960 --> 0:54:20.759
<v Speaker 1>uber in the future. UM, but I should keep a

0:54:20.840 --> 0:54:23.640
<v Speaker 1>very close eye on carbon prices because that could change

0:54:23.680 --> 0:54:27.480
<v Speaker 1>the game for many other industries that could utilize hydrogen.

0:54:27.560 --> 0:54:30.080
<v Speaker 1>Is that it is that a good assertion? Yes, there

0:54:30.120 --> 0:54:35.160
<v Speaker 1>might be some anecdotal evidence, you know, anecdotal examples where

0:54:35.200 --> 0:54:37.839
<v Speaker 1>you might get even picked up by a hydrogen field uber.

0:54:38.280 --> 0:54:41.680
<v Speaker 1>You know some cities are trying that, but more more

0:54:41.719 --> 0:54:43.799
<v Speaker 1>likely than not, it's going to be in about battery

0:54:43.880 --> 0:54:46.400
<v Speaker 1>electric one. So so that's kind of the point that

0:54:46.520 --> 0:54:49.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, battery electric is just going to see a

0:54:49.360 --> 0:54:51.600
<v Speaker 1>lot much larger sales than than hyrogen. But yes, I

0:54:51.600 --> 0:54:54.799
<v Speaker 1>would agree with your with your assessment. Okay, we will see.

0:54:55.400 --> 0:54:57.200
<v Speaker 1>So Martin, it was really great to have you today.

0:54:57.239 --> 0:54:58.920
<v Speaker 1>I'm really glad that we got to take a look

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<v Speaker 1>backward towards history. We got to talk about the color

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<v Speaker 1>wheel and hopefully makes some sense of that for people,

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<v Speaker 1>how we make hydrogen in the properties that it has,

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<v Speaker 1>and then also looking towards the future of hydrogen. So

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<v Speaker 1>for those listening, keep watching that carbon price and Martin,

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<v Speaker 1>hopefully we will have you back on again soon for

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<v Speaker 1>some more media detail on what is happening in the

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<v Speaker 1>hydrogen market. Thank you Data. Today's episode of Switched On

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<v Speaker 1>was edited by Rex Warner the Grace Stoke Media. Bloomberginna

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<v Speaker 1>is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliate.

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<v Speaker 1>This recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed

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<v Speaker 1>as investment advice, investment recommendation, or a recommendation as to

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<v Speaker 1>an investment or other strategy. Bloomberginn F should not be

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<v Speaker 1>considered as information sufficient fund which to base an investment decision.

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