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Speaker 1: This is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switch It

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Speaker 1: on the B n F Podcast. Today, I speak with

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Speaker 1: Martin Tangler, who is our lead hydrogen analyst here at

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Speaker 1: B and F, and today we're going to talk about

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Speaker 1: well hydrogen, which has been a pretty buzzy topic as

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Speaker 1: of late. But rather than go into detail on something

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Speaker 1: specific or technical, we're going to zoom out way out.

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Speaker 1: For example, it seems like every time I turn around,

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Speaker 1: there's a new color associated with the hydrogen color wheel.

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Speaker 1: Of course, there's been green and blue hydrogen, but what

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Speaker 1: about pink, yellow, or gray? I could keep going, but

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Speaker 1: you get the idea. Martin recently wrote a research note

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Speaker 1: titled Hydrogen for Beginners, Everything you Need to Know, where

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Speaker 1: he breaks down this hydrogen primer into history, physics, and

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Speaker 1: economics in order to see the future of this clean

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Speaker 1: burning molecule and to understand how it might fit with

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Speaker 1: some of the hard to abate sectors. We're going to

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Speaker 1: start with the fundamentals. For Bloomberg subscribers who want to

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Speaker 1: read this or see some of the charts that Martin made,

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Speaker 1: you'll be able to find it on the Bloomberg terminal

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Speaker 1: at B NF Go at b enof dot com or

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Speaker 1: on our mobile app. As a reminder, B andF does

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Speaker 1: not provide investment or strategy advice, and we've got a

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Speaker 1: complete disclaimer at the end of the show. But now

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Speaker 1: let's talk about hydrogen. Martin, thank you for joining today.

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Speaker 1: Thank you. So we're here to talk about hydrogen. We've

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Speaker 1: done a few hydrogen podcasts in the past, and they

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Speaker 1: were on very specific topics. But today we're going to

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Speaker 1: try something different. We're going to zoom way out and

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about We'll try to in one

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Speaker 1: show explain the basics of hydrogen and how this market works.

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Speaker 1: Because there's so much buzz around it at the moment,

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Speaker 1: Can you explain to everybody why you ended up writing

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Speaker 1: a primary research report when we have historically gone much

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Speaker 1: deeper on topics. So I think that's exactly the reason

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Speaker 1: why we have historically gone very deep on topics with

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Speaker 1: let's say an assumption that the average B and EF

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Speaker 1: either would understand most of the basics, and then we

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Speaker 1: had a couple of conversations, you know, with our clients,

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Speaker 1: even internally with our colleagues, there turns out to be

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Speaker 1: a pretty wide range of people in terms of how

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Speaker 1: well they understand hydrogen for obvious reasons, and so we

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Speaker 1: thought that writing a report that helps everybody be on

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Speaker 1: the same page, and after they've read it, then they

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Speaker 1: can read any other b NF report on hydrogen and

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Speaker 1: feel like they can understand it, feel that they get

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Speaker 1: the context. So that was really the purpose of the report.

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Speaker 1: What I realized today when preparing for our discussion was

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Speaker 1: that there are certain colors in the hydrogen wheel. You

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Speaker 1: may like referred to as a wheel of different colors.

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Speaker 1: There's certain colors within hydrogen that I understand much better

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Speaker 1: than others, and we will come to that and discuss

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Speaker 1: what each of those is. But let's take another giant

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Speaker 1: step back and let's start with history. So I think

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Speaker 1: many of us associate hydrogen with Zeppelin's. You know, this

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Speaker 1: is a natural resource that has been around for some time,

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about when it kind of first came

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Speaker 1: on the radar and where hydrogen has been in the past,

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Speaker 1: so that we can talk about the potential in the future.

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Speaker 1: The idea of using hydrogen is absolutely not new. It

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Speaker 1: goes back to at least the eighteen hundreds, when in

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Speaker 1: eighteen seventy four French writer, as you'll learn, wrote a

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Speaker 1: book in which he said that one day hydrogen will

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Speaker 1: provide an inexhaustible source of heat and light. That's kind

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Speaker 1: of how it's translates. Have you read this book. I

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Speaker 1: have not read this book. I've just I've just from it.

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Speaker 1: But you know what, it's on my reading list. I

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Speaker 1: definitely want to read it. Jewels were in the visionary.

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Speaker 1: I will add it to my book club reading. Absolutely.

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Speaker 1: So that's the idea of using hydrogen for energy, right.

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Speaker 1: Hydrogen is a very energy dense molecule, which is something

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Speaker 1: that I think we'll talk about later as well. But

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Speaker 1: then the idea of using hygen for energy, you know,

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Speaker 1: there have been a couple couple of waves in the middle.

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Speaker 1: You know, you mentioned the Zeppelins. Then they have been

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Speaker 1: you know, the US and the Soviets. Apparently we're testing

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Speaker 1: planes that would fly on hydrogen in the nineteen fifties,

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Speaker 1: which hasn't exactly worked out. But then a hundred years later,

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Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy four, the roadent Track magazine in the

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Speaker 1: US published on its cover this thing that said hydrogen

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Speaker 1: new and clean fuel for the future. And the reason

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Speaker 1: they did it was because Back then, there was this

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Speaker 1: idea of using hydrogen as a fuel for cars because

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Speaker 1: it was in the middle of the oil crisis. Oil

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Speaker 1: was scarce or was expensive. People are looking for ways

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Speaker 1: to feel their that their vehicles without having to rely

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Speaker 1: on oil. But then all crisis finished, you know, hydrogen

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Speaker 1: cars didn't really go anywhere, and then we've got a

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Speaker 1: couple more of these waves throughout history. You know, George

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Speaker 1: bush Into in two thousand and three said that the

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Speaker 1: first car driven by a child born today could be

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Speaker 1: powered by hydrogen. So now if you fast forward to today,

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Speaker 1: there are about thirty thou cars globally that have been

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Speaker 1: sold that run on hydrogen. So maybe there's a a

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Speaker 1: child somewhere whose first card happens to be a totemm

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Speaker 1: ME RAI. But it's definitely more like the exception than

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Speaker 1: the rules. So there have been a lot of a

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Speaker 1: lot of waves of interest, but much less in terms

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Speaker 1: of actually following up on those waves with action in

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Speaker 1: terms of using hydrogen for energy. So they're definitely have

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Speaker 1: been these points where, oh, maybe hydrogen will be really

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Speaker 1: great for transport, and it is used in some spaces.

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Speaker 1: It is you know, you have hydrogen ferries being developed,

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Speaker 1: and you have different vehicles, land vehicles being using hydrogen.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing a few of them out there, but then

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Speaker 1: not quite yet beaten out certainly the internal combustion engine

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Speaker 1: or really batteries which seem to be taking off. So

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Speaker 1: the story of hydrogen is one where there just seems

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Speaker 1: to be this fever pitch of excitement in the industry

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Speaker 1: and then seeing whether or not it's actually going to

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Speaker 1: take hold. So let's talk a little bit about the

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Speaker 1: physical properties or the physics of hydrogen so that we

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Speaker 1: can understand kind of what we're dealing with before we

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Speaker 1: think about the future potential that it has and maybe

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Speaker 1: why there is all of this buzz. So with hydrogen,

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Speaker 1: where should we start? Should we start with the transport

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Speaker 1: or let's start with where we get it from? How

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Speaker 1: does one find or create hydrogen currently? That's a really

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Speaker 1: good question, So there's at least two two ways to

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Speaker 1: answer this. It turns out that hydrogen is by far

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Speaker 1: the most abundant element in the universe, and I imagine

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Speaker 1: that many people listening to this podcast will have probably

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Speaker 1: heard that somewhere. But about three quarters of all the

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Speaker 1: chemical elements or you know, the particles in the universe

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Speaker 1: are hydrogen particles, but on Earth hydrogen does not appear

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Speaker 1: in its pure form in the Union. In the rest

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Speaker 1: of the universe, hydrogen is basically what makes up stars

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Speaker 1: together with helium, but on Earth we've got no stars.

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Speaker 1: Hydrogen is locked in other chemicals because it's a very

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Speaker 1: reactive gas, so it's either locked in water, so that's

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Speaker 1: H two oh. Familiar with that one, Yeah, yeah, drink

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Speaker 1: that every day. And hydrocarbons, which basically is another word

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Speaker 1: for fossil fuels, So example would be methane H four

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Speaker 1: another more complex hydrocarbon molecules from which then we can

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Speaker 1: extract hydrogen. So if we were to extract hygen from water,

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Speaker 1: then you need to use this process called electrolysis, which

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Speaker 1: means you pass electricity through water in a device that's

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Speaker 1: called an electrolyzer. On one end, hydrogen comes out. On

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Speaker 1: another end, oxygen comes out, so the H two and

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Speaker 1: the oh to come on on separate ends. If you

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Speaker 1: were to extract hydrogen from hydrocarbons such as methane, and

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Speaker 1: that's how we extract the vast majority of hydrogen today,

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Speaker 1: then for methane you could use this technology gold steam

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Speaker 1: methane reforming, which means you're bombarding methane molecules with very

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Speaker 1: hot steam and unlocking the hydrogen that way. But what

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Speaker 1: that does mean is that given that methane is the

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Speaker 1: hydrocarbon c H four, you've got the carbon molecules attaching

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Speaker 1: to oxygen and leaving a CEO to gas. So then

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Speaker 1: the hydrogen that we use today, and we use a

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Speaker 1: lot of hydrogen today something we can talk about as well,

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Speaker 1: not for energy, we're using it for the chemistry of it.

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Speaker 1: We're using a lot of it that's very corton intensive,

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Speaker 1: So let's go into that. So that we're talking about

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Speaker 1: this hydrogen as a potentially clean burning fuel, but the

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Speaker 1: way that we're producing it today, it's not there yet.

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Speaker 1: And you were mentioning that there are uses today where

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Speaker 1: the chemical properties are critically important. So it's not being

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Speaker 1: used as a source of energy, it's being used for

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Speaker 1: something else. Where are we currently using hydrogen where is

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Speaker 1: it critical? There are really three sectors today that use

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Speaker 1: the majority of the hydrogen that we produce. That is

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Speaker 1: oil refining or hydrogen is used for sulfur removal. Then

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Speaker 1: it's ammonia, which is used for fertilizers. So ammonia is

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Speaker 1: n H three, so it's one nitrogen and three hydrogen molecules,

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Speaker 1: so you cannot produce ammonia without hydrogen. And then there's

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Speaker 1: a methanol which is c H three oh h. Again

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Speaker 1: it's a chemical that's used for many different things. Cannot

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Speaker 1: produce it physically without hydrogen because it contains hydrogen. So

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Speaker 1: that's really the three biggest sectors that use hydrogen today.

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Speaker 1: But then hydrogen is produced from mostly steam methane reforming

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Speaker 1: releasing that CEO two, and therefore it's not a solution

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Speaker 1: for the carbonization, which is how hydrogen is being presented

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Speaker 1: a lot today, but it's actually part of the problem

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Speaker 1: that will itself need to be solved. So there's the

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Speaker 1: uses today and then the potential for tomorrow. About how

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Speaker 1: much hydrogen, you're saying, there's quite a bit of it.

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Speaker 1: How much hydrogen are we already using today? So if

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Speaker 1: you sum up the hydrogen that we use as pure

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Speaker 1: hydrogen nos H two and the hydrogen we use mixed

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Speaker 1: in with with other gases like sing gas, for example,

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Speaker 1: we're using about a hundred and twenty million tons of

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Speaker 1: hydrogen per year. Now when I heard this number for

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Speaker 1: the first time, I just thought, what what does that mean?

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Speaker 1: HydroD and twenty million tons sounds like a lot. But

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Speaker 1: but how do you even quantify? Is how do you

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Speaker 1: visualize it? And so I ransom calculations. In terms of

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Speaker 1: the amount of energy that that this hydrogen contains, it's

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Speaker 1: about half of the amount of energy that the US

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Speaker 1: consumes every year in the form of natural gas. So

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Speaker 1: it's a lot. And if you were to fit that

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Speaker 1: hydrogen into a volume, it would be about one thousand,

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Speaker 1: three hundred cubic kilometers, which is roughly the equivalent of

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Speaker 1: about eleven dead seas. So it's a heck of a

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Speaker 1: lot of hydrogen that we're already using today eleven dead

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Speaker 1: seas like that. So okay, so we've got hydrogen that

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Speaker 1: we need to create. How about the naturally occurring hydrogen.

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Speaker 1: I was at a conference last week or somebody at

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Speaker 1: this sudden they said, Oh, there might be hydrogen that

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Speaker 1: we don't actually have to produce and that we can

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Speaker 1: just naturally extract. Is this actually the case is? There's

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Speaker 1: got a lot of potential. So if you serve around

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Speaker 1: the internet, you will find that even you you will

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Speaker 1: find even academic papers that talk about having discovered the

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Speaker 1: accumulations of natural hydrogen so H two in its pure form.

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Speaker 1: Some of them even claimed to be using that hydrogen

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Speaker 1: in in some form or shape for energy. But they're

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Speaker 1: very small examples for the moment. So as far as

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Speaker 1: we can tell right now, most hydrogen on Earth is

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Speaker 1: locked into water or hydrocarbons. There might be some deposits

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Speaker 1: of pure hydrogen, we just haven't found them to be

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Speaker 1: large enough to really be economically viable. Of course, if

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Speaker 1: we do, should that happen, then that could, you know,

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Speaker 1: change the game quite quite significantly. But for the moment,

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Speaker 1: it would appear that these are more kind of an

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Speaker 1: anecdotal piece of evidence rather than a sign of something bigger. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so we're gonna have to make it, and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get back into that in a second. But let's let's

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Speaker 1: talk a little bit about the potential of what it

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Speaker 1: is that we want to use it for. So you

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Speaker 1: brought up transport in the past, and then you're talking

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Speaker 1: about chemical processes, but the real potential here has to

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Speaker 1: do with some of the hard to abate sectors, and

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Speaker 1: simply put, the hard to abate sectors and the ones

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Speaker 1: where we are having a hard time figuring out how

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Speaker 1: to decarbonize them. Which are these There's a lot of them,

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Speaker 1: to be honest, Uh, pretty much every sector is hard

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Speaker 1: to abate when when you think about it, really we

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Speaker 1: could talk about transport, especially planes and ships. Not getting

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Speaker 1: back the carbonized is going to be a challenge. We

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Speaker 1: could talk about power generation if you're being a research

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Speaker 1: which show that if you want to decarbonize your electricity

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Speaker 1: grid with just solar, wind and batteries, then you can

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Speaker 1: only get up to maybe carbon free, but then you

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Speaker 1: kind of gets stuck and you need some other technology

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Speaker 1: to get you all the way to carbon free, and

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Speaker 1: hydrogen could potentially be that, but there are other candidates too.

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Speaker 1: Then you could be using hydrogen as a source of

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Speaker 1: heat because it burns, and it burns very very hot,

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Speaker 1: So you could use it for steel production, cement production,

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Speaker 1: aluminum production, you could use it to heat buildings the

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Speaker 1: ones that we that that we live in or working.

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Speaker 1: And then of course hydrogen itself already works, already exists

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Speaker 1: as a feedstock for all those uh, sectors I've already

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Speaker 1: talked about, like all of refining, like fertilizers, some plastics

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Speaker 1: and these sectors well also need to be decarbonized with

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Speaker 1: clean hydrogen. So I have a friend who is involved

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Speaker 1: in developing hydrogen ferries at the moment, and I referenced

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Speaker 1: to the very big ending of the show the Zeppelin,

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Speaker 1: which is probably one of the most common things that

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Speaker 1: we know about. It's a very flammable gas. Was that

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Speaker 1: one of the main barriers that is standing in the

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Speaker 1: way of application in some of these industries or does

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Speaker 1: it have much more to do with the economics. I

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Speaker 1: would say it's mostly in most sectors, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be the economics more than it is the flammability. But

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Speaker 1: there certainly are some challenges when it comes to hydrogen safety.

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Speaker 1: It's not like we're not using flammable gases right now.

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Speaker 1: Natural gas which you probably use at home to to

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Speaker 1: heat your water and cook my porridge this morning, with

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Speaker 1: very flammable gas itself, but not not as flammable or

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Speaker 1: you know, it just has different properties. Hydrogen as different

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Speaker 1: properties from natural gas, just to put it simply, And

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Speaker 1: there have been a couple of studies that try to

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Speaker 1: compare the safety of hydrogen versus natural gas, and most

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Speaker 1: of them will tell you that the hydrogen would tend

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Speaker 1: to you know, holding every every other variable constant would

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Speaker 1: tend to cause more injuries or more explosions than natural gas.

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Speaker 1: So that's certainly something that will need to consider where

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Speaker 1: we're going to use this hydrogence. So if you're going

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Speaker 1: to be using your home for heating and for cooking,

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Speaker 1: of course taking this into account is going to be

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Speaker 1: absolutely essential you're going to be using that safely. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense. So may within these

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Speaker 1: hard to abate sectors may end up lending itself better

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Speaker 1: to some than others. But let's talk a little bit

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Speaker 1: about the emissions or lack thereof, associated with hydrogen for

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Speaker 1: the hard to abate sectors. So this question that needs

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Speaker 1: to be answered as it's currently produced. It's not a

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Speaker 1: net zero option. What needs to happen in order for

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Speaker 1: it to be made without emitting CEO two. So today

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Speaker 1: I've already said it. Most hydrogen is produced from methane

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Speaker 1: using steam methane reforming. Basically, methane is natural gas that

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Speaker 1: releases quite a lot of c O two. So for

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Speaker 1: every kilogram of hydrogen you produce, you get about nine

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Speaker 1: kilograms of c O two. If you're producing this hydrogen

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Speaker 1: the standard way, which is what's called gray hydrogen from

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Speaker 1: steam methane reforming. Now, the first thing you can do,

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Speaker 1: and that's the thing that a lot of companies who

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Speaker 1: happen to own these production facilities for gray hydrogen are

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Speaker 1: thinking about, is you could put a CCS carbon capture

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Speaker 1: and storage functionality on your on your gray hydrogen production,

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Speaker 1: then you could try to capture and store that carbon. Now,

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Speaker 1: you're unlikely to ever be able to capture of the carbon.

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Speaker 1: We tend to assume that typically six of your emissions

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Speaker 1: would be captured. Now, there have been some discussions recently

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Speaker 1: after a paper was published by academics from Cornell and

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Speaker 1: Stanford Universities that the emissions of blue hydrogen with CCS

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Speaker 1: might be a lot higher than we had originally thought,

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Speaker 1: but regardless, they would probably blue hydrogen would probably result

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Speaker 1: in in a less emissions than gray. But the whole

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Speaker 1: point in a lot of countries these days is getting

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Speaker 1: down to net zero. So you know, blue hydrogen capturing

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Speaker 1: of emissions emissions is still not gonna get you there.

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Speaker 1: So then your other options would be to use electrolysis

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Speaker 1: that's powered with electricity. That's uh that doesn't release any emissions,

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Speaker 1: so of course that could be grain hydrogen produced from

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Speaker 1: electrolysis with renewables. It could be hydrogen produced from electrolysis

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Speaker 1: with nuclear power, for example, So those would be your

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Speaker 1: options for carbon free hygen. There are other technologies that

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Speaker 1: could produce hydrogen. Okay, so you started to get into

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Speaker 1: the Crayola box of colors on hydrogen. So let's just

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Speaker 1: spell that out for everybody, given that those listening today

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Speaker 1: want to know the basics of this industry. So green

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Speaker 1: is the one that I'm most familiar with. Green is

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Speaker 1: the renewable electricity produced hydrogen. But let's let's go around

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Speaker 1: the wheel, so turquoise is next. Yeah, well, I would

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Speaker 1: take a step back first and just make it very

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Speaker 1: clear that hydrogen itself is a colorless gas. So hydrogen

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Speaker 1: has absolutely no color in the first place, and these

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Speaker 1: colors are only used as a shorthand to identify how

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Speaker 1: the hydrogen was produced. Some irony here in the color

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Speaker 1: wheel for hydrogen. It's completely colorless, yet we want to

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Speaker 1: use colors to explain it exactly. So you're right, And

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Speaker 1: the other colors that are out there include turquoise hydrogen,

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Speaker 1: which is a no, not not a standard way to

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Speaker 1: produce hydrogen today. It's quite uh, you know, it's quite

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Speaker 1: a nascent, quite a new technology where basically it's methane pyrolysis.

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Speaker 1: What you end up with is a hydrogen black carbon powder.

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Speaker 1: So that's kind of interesting that you end up with

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Speaker 1: carbon not as carbon dioxide, but as as a solid.

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Speaker 1: Then there's blue hydrogen, which we've already talked about, So

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Speaker 1: that's hydrogen from fossil fuels, the same may we produce

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Speaker 1: it today, but with carbon capture and storage. Okay. And

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Speaker 1: then there's the gray, which you also referred to, which

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Speaker 1: includes ccs. What else goes into the gray category? So

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Speaker 1: great gray is hydrogen that is produced from fossil fuels

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Speaker 1: waited out carbon capture and storage. That's it. It's just

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Speaker 1: made made without any real abatement technology associated with it.

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Speaker 1: So that's probably the most polluting and that's how we

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Speaker 1: produce most of our hydrogen today. And then we've moved

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Speaker 1: up to well, red is the color often associated sometimes

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Speaker 1: with nuclear so is that the color that's associated with

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Speaker 1: hydrogen there? This is really where it starts getting a

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Speaker 1: bit hazy. I wonder if hazy is a color too

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Speaker 1: but it is is the color that B and e

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Speaker 1: F likes to use to show nuclear in our reports.

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Speaker 1: But typically people who talk about hygiene from nuclear would

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Speaker 1: use the color pink. Oh okay, so we need to

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Speaker 1: we need to think about our colors slightly differently. And

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Speaker 1: then what about yellow and purple? And I mean, we're

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Speaker 1: got more colors to get through. There's all these different colors. So,

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Speaker 1: for example, purple and orange are both sometimes used as

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Speaker 1: colors to say that you're using you're producing hydrogen from

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Speaker 1: biomass gasification, which technically could also be another way of

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Speaker 1: producing CEO two free hydrogen if you've got a sustainable

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Speaker 1: source of biomass. No, I like, I'm saying, these colors

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Speaker 1: they get hazier and hazier. You know, why does it

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Speaker 1: have to be orange and purple? In are we are

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Speaker 1: we burning orange? Peel and lavender? Or you know? Is

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Speaker 1: it for every every different color of feats on the

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Speaker 1: burning we're getting a different we're getting We're using a

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Speaker 1: different color. So you know, at B and EF we

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Speaker 1: prefer to away from using colors and just say no

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Speaker 1: hydrogen produced from bringewable electricity even better, hydrogen produced from

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Speaker 1: solar PV electricity, which is obviously more accurate than brain hydrogen,

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Speaker 1: So we prefer to use the you know, the more

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Speaker 1: accurate term of nif. That does lead me slightly less

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Speaker 1: confused when we do that, or when others in the

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Speaker 1: industry call it out, because otherwise it feels a little

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Speaker 1: bit too like a you know, session with barbaras and painting. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so here we go. Let's talk about the properties of hydrogen.

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Speaker 1: So let's bring that down into simple parts. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: that it's invisible, it's also odorless. What are the other

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Speaker 1: properties of hydrogen that we should know about. There's a

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Speaker 1: whole lot of them. It's not naturally occurring, so that's

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Speaker 1: something we've already discussed. On Earth, you have to extract

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Speaker 1: it from from something. It's very light. So one of

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Speaker 1: the things that you might that a lot of proponents

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Speaker 1: of hydrogen might tell you, or that you know, if

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Speaker 1: you read a random article online, you might might read

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Speaker 1: that hydrogen is the most energy dense element in the

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Speaker 1: universe or on Earth, which is pretty much true per kilogram.

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Speaker 1: So if you if you take all the elements and

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Speaker 1: you you look at the per kilogram, which one has

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Speaker 1: the most energy, then hydrogen is definitely at the top.

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Speaker 1: But the challenge is that if you want to fit

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Speaker 1: that kilogram into a reasonable amount of space, that's where

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Speaker 1: you really run into problems. So hydrogen takes up about

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Speaker 1: three to four times the space compared to natural gas

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Speaker 1: to store the same amount of energy, so that really

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Speaker 1: causes some challenges when it comes to storing and moving

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Speaker 1: hydrogen around in in the tank. The hydrogen is a

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Speaker 1: low boiling point, so one of the ideas to shrink

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Speaker 1: the volume of hydrogen is to liquefy it by cooling

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Speaker 1: it down, the same way you do with natural gas

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Speaker 1: to form l n G. But natural gas cools down

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Speaker 1: that it becomes a liquid that minus one sixty two

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Speaker 1: degrees hydrogen becomes a liquid that minus two hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty three degrees celsius. Wow, that is a level of

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Speaker 1: cold I am not even considered. Yeah, it turns out

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Speaker 1: that the lowest temperature that you can physically achieve is

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Speaker 1: only about twenty degrees celsius below that, so we're talking

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Speaker 1: super extreme code and therefore it takes a lot of

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Speaker 1: energy to actually reach that kind of temperature. Takes about

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Speaker 1: the energy and the hydrogen itself just to liquefy it.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of inefficiencies that are associated with

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Speaker 1: hydrogen if you want to liquify it or if you

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Speaker 1: just want to produce hydrogen. Just a simple production of hydrogen,

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Speaker 1: you need about fifty three two fifty seven kilovered hours

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Speaker 1: of electricity to produce a kilogram of hydrogen, and that

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Speaker 1: kilogram of hydrogen called obtains depending on how you count it,

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Speaker 1: thirty three to thirty nine point four kilo with hours

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Speaker 1: of energy, So you already end up with with with

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Speaker 1: a pretty significant of thirty two percent loss at least

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Speaker 1: with just producing hydrogen from electricity. And then if you

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Speaker 1: were to take this electricity dec I didn't make electricity

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Speaker 1: from it again, which is the idea in some places,

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Speaker 1: you have another fifty loss, So then you basically end

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Speaker 1: up with just thirty percent of the energy that you

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Speaker 1: started with back in the form of electricity. So that's

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Speaker 1: a pretty inefficient way of of of using energy. So

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Speaker 1: you mentioned low efficiency, and we talked a little bit

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Speaker 1: earlier about how combustible it is, and it's not the

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Speaker 1: only combustible thing we use currently, so that's one thing.

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Speaker 1: And then also you mentioned that it's reactive, so their

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Speaker 1: chemical reactions. But when you were explaining just now several

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Speaker 1: of these parts of this gas that we're now kind

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Speaker 1: of getting a better picture of what its properties are,

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Speaker 1: you started going into various units, not something that you

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Speaker 1: can also explain. So how do we given the it's

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Speaker 1: gas or you can also be a liquid and also

432
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: has an energy intensity that we need to consider? How

433
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 1: do people talk about hydrogen when they talk about what

434
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 1: units are used to apply to it? Yeah, this is

435
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 1: really tricky because you know, at BNF, we're at least

436
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 1: most of us would be used to the units used

437
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 1: for electricity, which typically would be kilo with hours, but

438
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 1: hydrogen is a is a bit more complicated than that.

439
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 1: So there are at least three ways in which you

440
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 1: could talk about hydrogen and or express hydrogen in different units.

441
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: So you could talk about hydrogen in terms of the weight.

442
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 1: So I talked about a kilogram of hydrogen, So that's

443
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: one way in which you can talk about I mentioned

444
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: be used one hundred seventeen million tons or one D

445
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 1: twenty million tons per year of hydrogen, so that's kilograms

446
00:26:55,640 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: tons units of weight. You could also talk about hydrogen

447
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 1: and in terms of the volumes I mentioned those hundred

448
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 1: and twenty million tons take up the volume roughly equivalent

449
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 1: to the two eleven dead seas. Now things get a

450
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 1: bit more complicated there though, because hydrogen is a gas,

451
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 1: and because it's a gas, how much volume it takes

452
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 1: up actually differs based on the pressure and the temperature.

453
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 1: So then you need to define if you're talking about

454
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 1: hydrogen in terms of its volume, you need to define

455
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: what pressure and temperature you're talking about at in order

456
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: to define the volume accurately. So then the volumetric units

457
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 1: used for hydrogen would be not cubic meters but normal

458
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 1: cubic meters, which would be one cubic meter of hydrogen

459
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: at zero degrees celsius and one atmospheric pressure. If you

460
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 1: want to be even confused even more, there's this other

461
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: unit called standard cubic meter of hydrogen, which is cubic

462
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 1: meter of hydrogen at one atmospheric pressure. That's the same,

463
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: but fifteen degrees celsius. So that means you've got a

464
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 1: bit less hydrogen in that cubic meter because it's warmer.

465
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 1: And then finally you could talk about hydrogen in terms

466
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: of its energy content. So I talked about one kilogram

467
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 1: of hydrogen containing thirty three kilo hours of energy if

468
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 1: you're talking at the low heating value, just a whole

469
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: a whole other kind of worms that probably not even

470
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 1: open at this point, or thirty nine point four kilo

471
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: what hours at the high heating value. So so you

472
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: can talk about that kilogram of hydrogen having an energy content.

473
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 1: So then when you burn that energy, burn that hydrogen

474
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 1: or process it's saying the fuel sell, then you can

475
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: end up with with the energy from that that that

476
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 1: hydrogen happens to contain. So there's these three different ways.

477
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 1: Of course, energy units would be kiloed hours or the

478
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,479
Speaker 1: most basic units of course is the jewel for energy. Okay,

479
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 1: there's a lot of different ways to measure this, so

480
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 1: basically look it up when you're when you're measuring hydrogen. Okay,

481
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 1: So we're talking about differ friend properties that hydrogen has

482
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: and also how we measure it, which I imagine inter

483
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 1: relates very much with one of the challenges that you

484
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 1: highlighted early on, which is transporting it, so not just

485
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: storing it, transporting and given it takes up so much space,

486
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,719
Speaker 1: how is it currently transported? What are our what are

487
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: our options? So there's different ways in which you can

488
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: transport hydrogen. They're pretty similar to the ways in which

489
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: you can transport any other gas, like natural gas. So

490
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: hydrogen today typically is transported either using trucks, So then

491
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 1: you would need to compress it in that pressurized container.

492
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 1: Assuming you've got the same pressure, same temperature, you need

493
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: about three to four compressed hydrogen trucks compared to one

494
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: truck with compressed natural gas to transport the same amount

495
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: of energy. So that means, of course transporting hydrogen costs

496
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: more money than transporting natural gas. Very need of energy transported.

497
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 1: The same applies if you were to transport hydend by ship,

498
00:29:56,840 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: which is not done a lot today, unlike natural gas,

499
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 1: which is transport is energy quite quite commonly. You tend

500
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 1: to produce it and then ship it kind of within

501
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 1: the same continent today, yes, and of course then you

502
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: can pipe it. You can send it via pipeline. That

503
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: is by far the most efficient, the cheapest way if

504
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: you have a large volume of hydrogen to transport. So

505
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: they're about four thousand or five thousand kilometers of hydrogen

506
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: pipelines around the world today, that's several orders of magnitude

507
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 1: less than the natural gas pipeline network, So it's it's very,

508
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: very very tiny compared to natural gas. Now we're talking

509
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: about these natural gas pipelines. One of the things that

510
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 1: are in some of our forecasts is that the natural

511
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 1: gas industry will need to decrease some if we're actually

512
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 1: going to meet some of these emissions targets that many

513
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 1: countries have outlined. Is it even useful and economic to

514
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: think about the natural gas infrastructure as a potential solution

515
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 1: for hydrogen? I think it depends on the and use

516
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 1: of the hydrogen, so on the economic viability of hydrogen

517
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: in different sectors. If you ask companies that today transport

518
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: natural gas, say in European natural gas transmission operators, especially

519
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 1: if they happen to be in countries with net zero targets.

520
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 1: So again, European natural gas operate pipeline operators, they are

521
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: pretty keen on converting their pipelines to carry hydrogen. It

522
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 1: can be done. It costs some money, but it costs

523
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: less money than if you were to build a new

524
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 1: pipeline altogether. But of course the question is, once you're

525
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: transporting hydrogen instead of natural gas, who's buying that hydrogen?

526
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: So are you using that pipeline to to to its

527
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 1: full extent, and that really depends on the economics of

528
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: the final users. So if you're using it for industrial

529
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 1: purposes or some of those sectors that I've already said

530
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: are using hydrogen today already, then that might make sense.

531
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: But if you want to pipe that hydrogen to you know,

532
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 1: every gasoline station in the world because you think that

533
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: there's going to be a large demand for for hydrogen

534
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 1: cars in the future, for hydrogen from cars in the future,

535
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 1: then that might not works as well. So it really

536
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 1: depends on the final use. Now for a very short break,

537
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: stay with us. Let's get into the economics of hydrogen,

538
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: and this is something that we have been really do

539
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: like to spend some time doing. We've got several hydrogen

540
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: relevant pathways and our New Energy Outlook, and for the uninitiated,

541
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 1: this is a report that goes out to the year

542
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 1: where we look at the different possible scenarios for the

543
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 1: future of the energy and the energy transition. So within

544
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 1: this there are several variables that may impact the cost

545
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: of hydrogen. You mentioned before that in some circumstances you're

546
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 1: only you're getting much less energy out although you can

547
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: store it. Then what you put into it, Where does

548
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: this become economically viable? And what are the different inputs,

549
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: how they sit now and for the future. And I

550
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 1: guess let's start. Let's start with renewable electricity, because that

551
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: I think is the space where B and E. F

552
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 1: maybe first got extremely interested in this space. Let's start

553
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: with with gray hydrogen because that's the one that we're

554
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 1: using today the most. So gray hydrogen today, if you

555
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 1: were to produce it from relatively cheap natural gas, would

556
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 1: cost you around a dollar per kilograph. So that's really

557
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: a benchmark that the low carbon or zero carbon hydrogen

558
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: like hydrogen from renewables is going to have to undercut

559
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: in order to outcompete this, uh, gray hydrogen that we

560
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 1: use today. So a key question that we keep asking

561
00:33:55,400 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 1: ourselves is when will green hydrogen from renewable be able

562
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: to outcompete hydrogen from fossil fuels with and without common

563
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: capture and storage and telling the future is difficult, but

564
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 1: I think you've probably got a good guess. Yeah, So

565
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 1: there are really three factors in our view. I mean,

566
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: there's there's an infinite amount of factors, but really three

567
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 1: key factors that determine the cost of hydrogen from renewables.

568
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 1: The most important one of them is the cost of

569
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 1: the renewable electricity that you're using to produce the hydrogen.

570
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 1: Then there's the cost of the electrolyzer, which is that

571
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 1: device that takes water and electricity and produces hydrogen oxygen.

572
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: And then it's the capacity factor off that electrolyzer. So

573
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 1: how many hours in a year is that electual electrolyzer operating,

574
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: which of course does not have to be all the

575
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,760
Speaker 1: time if you're powering it from renewab electricity. So starting

576
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 1: with renewable electricity, those costs, of course, that's something that

577
00:34:56,120 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: the ANF has been following since we started back into

578
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 1: a thousand four. Costs of PB have fallen so much

579
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 1: that by now it's the cheapest source of electricity if

580
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: you are to build a new power plant in most

581
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:12,320
Speaker 1: of the world, and we expect these costs to continue

582
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: falling so roughly. For ever redoubling in the cumulative installed

583
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 1: capacity of solar PV modules, we would expect about reduction

584
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 1: in their cost. For onshore wind the story is very similar.

585
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: The cost reduction curve is the experienced curve is not

586
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,919
Speaker 1: as steep as for solar, but the cost are set

587
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 1: to continue falling, so renewable costs definitely coming down, and

588
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 1: already pretty cheap electorallyzer costs. There's a really that's a

589
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 1: really interesting story. In China today electorallyzes cost about less

590
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: than what they cost in Europe and in North America,

591
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 1: which kind of shows us. Now, if you're producing alcohol

592
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 1: and electualized, so there's a simplest technology for for hydrogen production.

593
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 1: Forellectualizes at scale, you've got large customers and cheap production.

594
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,919
Speaker 1: You can already get this low. So it's scale that's

595
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 1: making this so much cheaper. It's the scale. It's cheaper labor.

596
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 1: Of course in China. China, the same way that China

597
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: today produces the cheapest alkaline electualizes also produces the cheapest

598
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 1: solar channels. That's why it's producing eighty percent of all

599
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: solar solar modules in the world. So those costs that

600
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 1: we're seeing in China are not yet necessarily available in

601
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 1: the rest of the world. But we're expecting these costs

602
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 1: to converge one way or another. Either we're going to

603
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 1: see Chinese companies take over the world the same way

604
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:43,800
Speaker 1: they did with solar selling it to everyone yep, exactly,

605
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: or we could see Western companies managing to reduce their

606
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: costs enough to be able to compete with with Chinese companies.

607
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 1: That we're starting to see signs of both of this

608
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 1: happening at the same time. So it's definitely we're still

609
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,080
Speaker 1: not not being not able to say which one of

610
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 1: these possible scenarios might happen, but electrolyzing costs definitely coming down.

611
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 1: Even those costs that we're seeing today in China still

612
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 1: have room to fall even further. And then finally you've

613
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,479
Speaker 1: got those capacity factors, So how many percent of the year,

614
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: how many hours in the year is that electrolyzer running,

615
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 1: which of course most importantly depends on what is powering it.

616
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 1: So if you're if you've got a one hundred megawat

617
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,719
Speaker 1: electoralizer connected to a one hundred mega what solar p

618
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,720
Speaker 1: D plant, then that electrolyzing is going to be running

619
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 1: in exactly the same hours as that pp plan, So

620
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 1: it might be running twenty of the time if you're

621
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 1: if you're say in Japan we're based today, could be

622
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 1: a bit more. If you're in sunnier places, could be

623
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: a bit less. If you're in less sunny places. But

624
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 1: you could optimize this further. You could combine your solar

625
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,839
Speaker 1: with wind. You could build a bigger solar factor of

626
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: the solar generated. Then you've got your electroalizer, and then

627
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 1: you're increasing your capacity factors. Of said it's an optimization exercise.

628
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: The bigger your generated, the higher your capital expenses. But

629
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 1: then the more you hyd the more hydrogen you also produce.

630
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,240
Speaker 1: So the question is, you know, what's the relative size

631
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: of your power plants to your electrolyze, But that can

632
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 1: definitely be optimized. So then you could breach capacity factors

633
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 1: upwards of safe fifty percent for renewable hydrogen. And is

634
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 1: this in the near term or is this sort of

635
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: fifteen years in the future. You think that these technologies

636
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 1: and cost clients could be optimized. Well, so this optimization

637
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 1: it's already being done. A lot of the projects that

638
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:43,320
Speaker 1: are being announced today there already planning to use solar

639
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: and wind, which conveniently, in many locations, wind tends to

640
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: blow more at night than during the day, So then

641
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: when your solar plant is shut down because it's dark,

642
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 1: your wind plant is generating a bit more. And then

643
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 1: some are planning to add batteries as well, and of course,

644
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 1: the cost of all of this is coming coming down,

645
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 1: which means that oversizing your renewables facility compared to your

646
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 1: electoralizer is going to become become the standard. In in

647
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 1: our opinion, it's already happening. When we're looking at the

648
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 1: color wheel of hydrogen and we're thinking about what the

649
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 1: future cost of clients are. We've talked about the gray

650
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 1: hydrogen or the without any sort of carbon debatement, and

651
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: then we've talked about the green and the renewable energy

652
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 1: focused hydrogen. What some of the potential is there? What

653
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 1: about other areas? Are there cost declients for nuclear and

654
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 1: this pink red, whatever color you want to call it,

655
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 1: for some of the other areas that are given. There's

656
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 1: so many different ways to make hydrogen, so that's something

657
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: that we're looking at right now. Nuclear hydrogen produced from

658
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 1: nuclear would have the advantage of running pretty much constantly,

659
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: so you're electoralizer would be running, you know, if not

660
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 1: one of the time, then it would have very little

661
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 1: downtime compared to if it's running on on renewables. Because

662
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:03,280
Speaker 1: nuclear powers producing constantly, but nuclear power is pretty expensive,

663
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 1: so in our view, and we're just writing a report

664
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 1: on this, so I can't really go into too much

665
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: depth until we've published it. For for hydrogen from fossil fuels,

666
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 1: the most important factor is the cost of the fossil fuel.

667
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 1: So if fossil fuels get really really cheap for some reason,

668
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 1: then hydrogen from fossil fuels with or without ccs could

669
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 1: get cheaper. But of course more likely than not, we're like,

670
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 1: we're going to see some form of carbon pricing, etcetera.

671
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:34,399
Speaker 1: So if anything, hygroen from fossil fuels is probably going

672
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 1: to get more expensive rather than cheaper over time. So

673
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,919
Speaker 1: when you when you sum it all up, we've got

674
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 1: hydrogen from renewables, which today is by far more expensive

675
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: than producing hagron from fossil fuels. That's why we're producing

676
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 1: it from fossil fuels today. But by twenty thirty, in

677
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: most countries that we've modeled, or really all the countries

678
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,319
Speaker 1: that we've modeled, it will we think it will be

679
00:40:55,360 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 1: possible to produce hasian from renewables cheaper than hydrogen from

680
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 1: fossil fuels with common capture and storage. And soon after that,

681
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:09,240
Speaker 1: and certainly before we think that one dollar per kilogram,

682
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 1: which it costs today in the cheapest, cheapest countries, cheapest

683
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 1: places to produce gray hydrogen, we'll we'll see green hydrogen

684
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 1: cheaper than that in a lot of a lot of countries.

685
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: So every country of Model twenty countries and all of them,

686
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 1: it will be cheaper to produce hydron from renewable stent

687
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 1: from fossil fuels. So, Martin, you mentioned carbon prices, and

688
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 1: we've just discussed the economics of the production side of things.

689
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:39,400
Speaker 1: But within the carbon prices space that one and what

690
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: other mechanimsidence may exist over on the policymaker side to

691
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 1: try and accelerate the adoption of hydrogen should we believe

692
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: that this is an important part of decarbonization for the

693
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 1: hard to abad sectors. So carbon prices are absolutely essential.

694
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 1: Without carbon pricing, but we're not going to see hydrogen

695
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 1: demand a cup in most places. And there aren't many

696
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 1: countries today with very high carbon prices or many markets

697
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 1: the the EU, the UK, and the u e t S.

698
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 1: We we've seen some record prices this year, you know,

699
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 1: fifty sixty dollars per ton, potentially rising even further by

700
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 1: twenty thirty. They could they could get above a hundred

701
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 1: hundred dollars per ton in Canada. They could get above

702
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 1: a hundred dollars per ton by twenty thirty, assuming that

703
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 1: the current government stays in power as an election in Canada.

704
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's going to happen before or

705
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:44,840
Speaker 1: after this UH this UH podcast is out, but it

706
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 1: will determine the economics of hydrogen as well, because without

707
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 1: the carbon price of at least I would say a

708
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 1: hundred dollars per ton c O two, it's unlikely that

709
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 1: we would see hydrogen from renewables or any hydrogen being

710
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 1: competitive against existing fossil fuels. That's why we're using fossil

711
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 1: fuels today in most of these sectors, and that's why

712
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 1: they're had to abate, so carbon prices will be essential,

713
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 1: and there aren't that many markets today that are on

714
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 1: track to have carbon prices high enough for hydrogen to

715
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 1: be competitive. Okay, So Martin, you identify seven signposts that

716
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 1: we should be monitoring as we are looking at hydrogen

717
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 1: development and the potential that it could have in the future.

718
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 1: And there are three that you specifically called out as

719
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: areas where we have made some progress. So why don't

720
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 1: we go into those in more details. So the three

721
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: that I've pulled out are not necessarily the most critical ones,

722
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 1: so they're the ones that we've seen progress on. So

723
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 1: when we published our first market outlook on hydrogen in March,

724
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,759
Speaker 1: we concluded that this time is different for hydrogen. So

725
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 1: you know, I talked at the beginning about this, these

726
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 1: different waves throughout history of of use, of interest in

727
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 1: using hydrogen for sake cars or for its energy, and

728
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 1: how they never really deialized, and we concluded in this

729
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 1: time is different, but we're not yet there, and to

730
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 1: get there, we would need these seven signposts that we

731
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 1: would need to achieve these seven signposts in order for

732
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 1: to maximize the use of hydrogen. And what really surprised

733
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:24,280
Speaker 1: us is that since March when we published that Market outlook,

734
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 1: three of these signposts have seen significant progress. And the

735
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 1: first one are net zero climate targets. So by now,

736
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: are as of June of this year, seventy of global

737
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 1: emissions were covered by some form of net zero either

738
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 1: legislative target or at least under official discussions to legislate

739
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 1: some net zero target. So that's that's a lot of

740
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 1: a lot of emissions that are already under under a

741
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 1: netzero target. Now, why isn't it real important as opposed

742
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 1: to say reduction which I'm based out of Japan. Japan

743
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:05,280
Speaker 1: had an eighty percent emissions reduction target before it announced

744
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 1: the net zero target at the end of last year.

745
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 1: Because we mentioned at the beginning, or you mentioned in

746
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 1: the beginning, hydrogen is really could really have potential in

747
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 1: those hard to abate sectors, the hardest to abate ones.

748
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 1: So if you reduce your emissions by eight then guests

749
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 1: which once you would not be touching it would be

750
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 1: exactly those that have the highest potential for hydrogen. So

751
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:30,720
Speaker 1: if you're moving from eight percent reduction to a hundred

752
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 1: percent reduction and emissions, that's where really the potential for

753
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 1: hydrogen is multiplied quite quite significant. And as we head

754
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 1: into Cup in November in Glasgow, this really does take

755
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 1: center stage because, as you pointed out, an increasing number

756
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 1: of countries and I don't think we've probably seen the

757
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,840
Speaker 1: finish line on this. We definitely wouldn't get to the

758
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,439
Speaker 1: goals of the IPCC has if we've reached the finish line.

759
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,359
Speaker 1: So let's um, let's see what happens. Okay, So then

760
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 1: the other signs of life that you've seen here. So

761
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 1: another one we said is that countries would need to

762
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 1: set up We called it targets with investment mechanisms. Really

763
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:11,759
Speaker 1: what we meant by that was a country with a

764
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 1: clear plan for what it's going to use hydrogen four

765
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 1: and why, and enough money to subsidize that hydrogen so

766
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 1: that it can eventually be be competitive or or enough

767
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 1: enough policies to to make it competitive. And now we

768
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 1: have over forty countries that have a hydrogen strategy or roadmap,

769
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:36,440
Speaker 1: or you know, they call it differently. India calls it

770
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 1: the Hydrogen National Mission, and the US calls it the

771
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 1: Hydrogen Earth Shot, but you know, we call it hydrogen strategies.

772
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 1: There's more than forty countries now that either already have

773
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:53,719
Speaker 1: one or are developing one, and some of them are

774
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 1: putting some pretty significant funds too to back up there

775
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 1: were It's not not all of them, but now we're

776
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,359
Speaker 1: seeing the UK recently having announced strategy with some pretty

777
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:09,920
Speaker 1: significant funding, the some some European countries of pretty strong funding.

778
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 1: And if the bill that's being discussed in the US

779
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:20,280
Speaker 1: right now passes, then the US could have some pretty

780
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 1: strong incentives for the production of clean hydrogen if if

781
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 1: that passes, and then the last one you've seen signs

782
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 1: of life is industrial decarbonization incentives are being put in place.

783
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 1: So why industrial decorganization incentives because a lot of the

784
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 1: sectors where we expect hydrogen to have to to be

785
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:46,800
Speaker 1: economical in the future with carbon pricing, of course, would

786
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 1: be industrial sectors including methanol, ammonia and steel production, aluminum production,

787
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 1: cement production for example. So if you have policies to

788
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 1: decarbonize the sectors and those are the hard to abate sectors,

789
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 1: then you're more likely to see high use of hydrogen

790
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: here they are again hard to abate sectors. That yeah,

791
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 1: there you go, the how to abate sectors and these

792
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: are that That's why industrial policies, industrial decomganization policies really

793
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 1: we could say dec organization policies for how to abate sacties.

794
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 1: It's it's pretty much one and the same thing really,

795
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 1: But right now there isn't all that much progress. So

796
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 1: we did a study being AFTED a study in in

797
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 1: February of this year where we ranked the G twenty

798
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:38,160
Speaker 1: countries on a whole different number of indicators, including progress

799
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 1: on industrial decomganization policies and none of those countries, not

800
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,400
Speaker 1: no G twenty countries called scored the best score that

801
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 1: we've had. So so that's the strong score where you

802
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 1: know they would have more than sixty six percent of

803
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 1: of of the um of the milestones that we that

804
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 1: we think they should hit that they have that, so

805
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 1: no country has actually achieved that. By the UK and

806
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 1: Germany are two countries that got very close and they've

807
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 1: been strengthening their policies to the comgonized industry, so that's

808
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 1: where we might see a lot of progress. And that's

809
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 1: exactly also the kind of countries where we're seeing the

810
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: most projects being announced on the industrial side to to

811
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 1: use to use, to use hydrogen industry. So there is

812
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:28,280
Speaker 1: a correlation between carbon pricing, between net zero targets, between

813
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:33,360
Speaker 1: industrial recoganization policies, between funding and where projects are actually

814
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:37,280
Speaker 1: being announced today. So let's talk more about the future

815
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,920
Speaker 1: and where we see hydrogen going. We've we've figured out

816
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 1: what well, no, we haven't figured it out, but we

817
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 1: have an idea of how it's currently produced, how it

818
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,400
Speaker 1: could be produced, where some of the cost of clients

819
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 1: are coming from. What is the potential demand to be

820
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 1: using this in the future, and where do you see

821
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:57,879
Speaker 1: as a hydrogen analyst, where do you see this industry going?

822
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:01,320
Speaker 1: How much hydrogen we you is really going to depend

823
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:06,840
Speaker 1: on two factors, and that's whether and how we decide

824
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: to de carbonized. So first, starting with the question of

825
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,799
Speaker 1: whether or the extent to which we decided to de carbonize,

826
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 1: I've already talked about if we do reach net zero,

827
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,920
Speaker 1: then we're more likely to use more hydrogen than if

828
00:50:20,960 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 1: we don't reach net zero. So net zero is absolutely essential.

829
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 1: So now let's say that if we assume that that

830
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 1: we do reach net zero, then there's still different ways

831
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 1: in which we could reach reach that goal. It could

832
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 1: be with lots of renewab electricity and the h and

833
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 1: the green hydrogen. It could be with lots of nuclear electricity.

834
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 1: You know, if if the world decides to build a

835
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 1: lot of nuclear No, right now, it doesn't seem like

836
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 1: a likely option, but it might happen. Or it could

837
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 1: be with a lot of ccs for example, carbon capture

838
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 1: and storage while continuing to use existing fossil fuels, or

839
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 1: a combination of these scenarios. So in our work in

840
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:05,720
Speaker 1: the New Energy Outlook twenty one, which we published earlier

841
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: in the year. We have these three scenarios for hydrogen

842
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 1: use in the future, and in the most optimistic scenario

843
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:16,120
Speaker 1: for hydrogen with this one that we call the green scenario,

844
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:21,960
Speaker 1: we use about eleven times as much hydrogen in twenty

845
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 1: fifty as we use today. So I talked about eleven

846
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 1: dead seas full of hydrogen or they being used today,

847
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:34,320
Speaker 1: we'd be using one twenty one dead seas full of hydrogen.

848
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 1: By We're gonna have to pick a different ocean I think,

849
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:42,800
Speaker 1: or difference. Yeah, maybe maybe one of the Great Lakes

850
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:46,480
Speaker 1: would would fit better for that. So so definitely a

851
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 1: lot of hydrogen we could be using if that's the

852
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:51,600
Speaker 1: method in which we choose to recognized. Now, how do

853
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 1: we choose to recognized? It's a really really important, uh

854
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:57,160
Speaker 1: and good question because hydrogen is not only going to

855
00:51:57,239 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 1: have to outcompete fossil fuels, it's also going to have

856
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:07,440
Speaker 1: to outcompete all the other technologies that could be there

857
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:10,799
Speaker 1: to help us decarbonize. So it's really going to be

858
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:14,800
Speaker 1: very sector dependent in my in my view, so for example,

859
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:18,400
Speaker 1: in UM some of the sectors, hydrogen is going to

860
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 1: be pretty much unavoidable. We're not going to be able

861
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 1: to go on without using green hydrogen in those sectors,

862
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:26,800
Speaker 1: and those are the ones that we that where hydrogen

863
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:31,840
Speaker 1: is being used today, right, So that's ammonia production, methanol production,

864
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 1: for example. There are others where the potential for hygen

865
00:52:36,040 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 1: is pretty high because the carbon price needed is pretty

866
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:41,399
Speaker 1: load for it to be competitive. Plus all the other

867
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:45,520
Speaker 1: options are either than early stage or more expensive today.

868
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 1: So that's things like steel production, aluminum production. And then

869
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 1: you've got the other end of the spectrum where be

870
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 1: Any keeps saying this, uh, but we really don't see

871
00:52:57,160 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 1: passenger cars running on hydrogen be in something very big

872
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 1: going forward. Talked about the idea of using hygroen for

873
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 1: cars being there since at least nineteen seventies. By now

874
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:12,840
Speaker 1: we've got thirty thousand cars that run on hydrogen globally.

875
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:16,799
Speaker 1: That's nothing compared that to twelve million cars that run

876
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:19,319
Speaker 1: on batteries. And those cars that run on batteries are

877
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:22,279
Speaker 1: much cheaper both the fuel because of course, if the

878
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 1: fuel is produced from electricity using electricity directly, whereas if

879
00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 1: you're producing hydrogen from electricity, you've got all those losses

880
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 1: that I talked about earlier. So the fuel and the

881
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,480
Speaker 1: car are cheaper, and you've got more charging points, and

882
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:37,280
Speaker 1: you've got refueling stations as about six d refueling stations

883
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:41,319
Speaker 1: around the world compared to millions of charging points, So

884
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 1: it's a very very different UH situation. So there are

885
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 1: sectors where we expect hydrogen to be high potential unavoidable,

886
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 1: other sectors where it's really not going to be competitive

887
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 1: against other options. But overall, we could potentially be seeing

888
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 1: anywhere between a doubling of hydrogen used from today if

889
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:08,240
Speaker 1: we UH in the low scenario, to not that eleven

890
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 1: times growth in that very high scenario more likely where

891
00:54:11,320 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 1: somewhere we gonna end up somewhere in the middle. So

892
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:17,840
Speaker 1: I'm unlikely to get picked up in my hydrogen fueled

893
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 1: uber in the future. UM, but I should keep a

894
00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 1: very close eye on carbon prices because that could change

895
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 1: the game for many other industries that could utilize hydrogen.

896
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 1: Is that it is that a good assertion? Yes, there

897
00:54:30,120 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 1: might be some anecdotal evidence, you know, anecdotal examples where

898
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:37,839
Speaker 1: you might get even picked up by a hydrogen field uber.

899
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 1: You know some cities are trying that, but more more

900
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 1: likely than not, it's going to be in about battery

901
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:46,400
Speaker 1: electric one. So so that's kind of the point that

902
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:49,360
Speaker 1: you know, battery electric is just going to see a

903
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 1: lot much larger sales than than hyrogen. But yes, I

904
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 1: would agree with your with your assessment. Okay, we will see.

905
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 1: So Martin, it was really great to have you today.

906
00:54:57,239 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 1: I'm really glad that we got to take a look

907
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 1: backward towards history. We got to talk about the color

908
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:04,680
Speaker 1: wheel and hopefully makes some sense of that for people,

909
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:07,919
Speaker 1: how we make hydrogen in the properties that it has,

910
00:55:07,960 --> 00:55:11,759
Speaker 1: and then also looking towards the future of hydrogen. So

911
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:15,040
Speaker 1: for those listening, keep watching that carbon price and Martin,

912
00:55:15,120 --> 00:55:18,240
Speaker 1: hopefully we will have you back on again soon for

913
00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 1: some more media detail on what is happening in the

914
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 1: hydrogen market. Thank you Data. Today's episode of Switched On

915
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:35,319
Speaker 1: was edited by Rex Warner the Grace Stoke Media. Bloomberginna

916
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:38,240
Speaker 1: is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliate.

917
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 1: This recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed

918
00:55:41,200 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 1: as investment advice, investment recommendation, or a recommendation as to

919
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:47,880
Speaker 1: an investment or other strategy. Bloomberginn F should not be

920
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 1: considered as information sufficient fund which to base an investment decision.

921
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:54,920
Speaker 1: Neither Bloomberg Finance LP, nor any of its affiliates makes

922
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:58,279
Speaker 1: any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness

923
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:01,200
Speaker 1: of the information contained in this Your core andenning liability

924
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:15,120
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