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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm Chadmilman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: Week six episode where we break down the entire slate

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Speaker 1: of NFL games. We will discuss our exact decision and

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Speaker 1: our Simon says and start to narrow down the options

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Speaker 1: for our final paves to put into the Favorites podcast

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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest. Speaking

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Speaker 1: of the contest, quick reminder. Today our contest team drops

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Speaker 1: your lowest weekly score of the season. By tomorrow morning,

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Speaker 1: everyone will see their new total score. Then it's a

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Speaker 1: race to the finish and the forty thousand dollars First

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Speaker 1: Play prize. We went one in four this week. Unfortunately

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Speaker 1: it's our second, so we can't drop both of them.

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Speaker 1: We suffered from some brutal, brutal bad beats, which prompted

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Speaker 1: some reflection by me. I just want to bring some sanity,

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Speaker 1: some reason, some logic to the crazy roller coaster that

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Speaker 1: is betting on the NFL. I'm going to explain more

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Speaker 1: of that and provide some evidence in a minute, but

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Speaker 1: first live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I'm joined

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Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,

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Speaker 1: my BFF professional better signon Hunter, Hello, Simon, Hello Chat.

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Speaker 2: I'm ready to get into this week. Brother about to

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Speaker 2: be one third way through the regular season, so yeah,

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Speaker 2: goes too fast, it does, and it's also things are

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Speaker 2: starting to sudden a little bit. This week. We have

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Speaker 2: ten home dogs, so the books are taking in a

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Speaker 2: lot of positions this week. So yeah, I'm excited to

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Speaker 2: break it down.

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Speaker 1: The fact we're already getting into the middle of October,

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Speaker 1: the IDEs of October is so unsettling to me. I

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Speaker 1: flipped over to week six when I was checking the ads.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, are you kidding me? I feel like we

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Speaker 1: just started this thing. In a moment, we'll recap the

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Speaker 1: results of week five in our contest and announce the

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Speaker 1: winner of our big weekly cash prize, the Favorites Podcast

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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest. You

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Speaker 1: can still win the weekly cash prizes, you just have

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Speaker 1: to enter visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: The Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet three six five

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Speaker 1: and now new BET three six five, customers get two

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Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. If bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms conditions restrictions applied. Congratulations to Week five first

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Speaker 1: place winner Jose Valaderes. Jose went five to zero in

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Speaker 1: the contest, nailed the Monday night football tiebreaker exactly. Jose's

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Speaker 1: taken home two thousand dollars twice the typical weekly prize,

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Speaker 1: and as always, our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his

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Speaker 1: Producer's Cup Award to the entry that finished dead fuck

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Speaker 1: last in the contest.

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Speaker 2: Have you heard about the Loads loser. He's a lois

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Speaker 2: about he still keeps on try.

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Speaker 1: This week, the Producer's Cup goes to Matt Yabuki, who

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Speaker 1: went on five missed the tiebreaker by a mere two

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Speaker 1: hundred and eighty three yards. Matt Yubuki, please email our

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Speaker 1: producer at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.

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Speaker 1: All Right, I mentioned above, Simon, Don't you don't even

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Speaker 1: know I did this? We suffered some bad beats this

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Speaker 1: past week, right since he had double digit leads three

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Speaker 1: different times in the second half, missed a game winning

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Speaker 1: kick in ot we lost. The Rams dominated the Packers,

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Speaker 1: missed an extra point that obviously had huge impact. We lost.

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Speaker 1: The Steelers lost to the Cowboys on a last second

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Speaker 1: touchdown path by Dak We lost as well. Like that,

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Speaker 1: those are excruciating. You can admit that as a professional,

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Speaker 1: admit that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say the worst part for me personally

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Speaker 2: is that Rams lost, my biggest loss since that Eagle

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl, So that one hurt for the show. But

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Speaker 2: also I've just been eating hot dogs and rice the

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Speaker 2: last two days. Chad, I'm just just gonna have to

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Speaker 2: suffer for next couple of weeks because it's just it's

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Speaker 2: hurting over here. But yeah, the Pittsburgh game was brutal

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Speaker 2: because you just nailed it in a game in which

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Speaker 2: the defense got us three turnovers and I blocked the

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Speaker 2: field goal. It came down to a fourth down and

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Speaker 2: on a little pick play to the third receiver, it

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Speaker 2: worked out for Dallas. So it's just, you know, one

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Speaker 2: of my strengths I believe in life is I am lucky.

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Speaker 2: Damn well, we're unlucky this past week. Just things did

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Speaker 2: not bounce our way.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, I felt terrible for you on Sunday night

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Speaker 1: when it's seven twenty and we're watching the end of

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Speaker 1: that Rams game and the Rams can't close the deal.

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Speaker 1: And I know that the Rams ended up being your

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Speaker 1: biggest play, not just of the weekend, but just generally,

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Speaker 1: like your face on the zoom when that fourth down

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Speaker 1: pass fell incomplete and then you were like, yeah, now

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Speaker 1: we got to do a podcast. I was like.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. And the worst part too, that day I started drinking.

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Speaker 2: As soon as we get done the show. It's like,

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Speaker 2: all right, we gotta booze. This is one of those

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Speaker 2: days you gotta drink. And if I always stay up

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Speaker 2: till one in the morning just to watch us lose

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Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh game. It was just like I've been watching

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Speaker 2: football since nine in the morning. Now it's one in

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Speaker 2: the morning, and I just can't damn get a wind

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Speaker 2: in the night.

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Speaker 1: Well, listen, I did not stay up for that, and

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Speaker 1: I didn't stay up for it. I didn't stay up

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Speaker 1: for the Saint Chiefs last night. I did decide to review, though,

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Speaker 1: through five weeks, how often we had been bitten by

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Speaker 1: bad beats and benefited from lucky breaks the tally including

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Speaker 1: the three games this past week, three lucky breaks, four

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Speaker 1: bad beats. So I'm not going to go into each game,

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Speaker 1: but i will tell you that I do think it

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Speaker 1: generally evens out, and we will feel the bad beats

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Speaker 1: worse than we will feel the lucky breaks, and it

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Speaker 1: will feel like those are two x what the lucky

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Speaker 1: breaks are. And I say this because I think everyone

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Speaker 1: feels this right, Everyone watching games feels so much more

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Speaker 1: when they lose a bad beat than when they get

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Speaker 1: the lucky break.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's not a rhythm. Also, it's like we've had

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Speaker 2: four straight weeks the game our last game out has covered.

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Speaker 2: We just can't get it right, Even this week I

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Speaker 2: gave you a fifty to fifty option and it's like,

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Speaker 2: we can't even get lucky. I'm picking the right option

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Speaker 2: of which game to take out. So now it is

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Speaker 2: it's just brutal. Where you're right, it's going to break

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Speaker 2: the other way. I get the fans. Even last year,

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Speaker 2: fansaid we had a down year. Listen, me and Chad

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Speaker 2: pick five sides every week, so that's ninety games total.

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Speaker 2: And even last year we had a downyear. To me

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Speaker 2: and you as well, we thought we could have done better.

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Speaker 2: We won't fifty and forty. So it's like this year

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Speaker 2: is brutal. We got a hole we gotta dig ourselves

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Speaker 2: out of. But like we just said, we're about to

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Speaker 2: be one third way through this season. No need to

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Speaker 2: panic yet, It's a long way to go. We usually

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Speaker 2: always write the ship, but man, these beats they've been

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Speaker 2: really tough to swallow.

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Speaker 1: It will even out, it always does. And most importantly,

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Speaker 1: like right now, all I care about for you and

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Speaker 1: for my social media happiness is the Phillies advancing in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs because those red October tiktoks are freaking amazing.

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Speaker 1: Go Phils. Let's get let's get rolland San Francisco bat Seattle.

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Speaker 1: Seattle's a three point dog on the road to Thursday

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Speaker 1: night game, like, which is our overriding trend here? Are

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Speaker 1: we going with like the home dog in the division?

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Speaker 1: Are we going with the Thursday night football favorite? I

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Speaker 1: will say like, these are two teams, the only two

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Speaker 1: teams that lost outright when they were the seven point

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Speaker 1: or better favorite on Sunday. The questions I have from

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Speaker 1: Sunday night are still irrelevant. Are we worried about the

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Speaker 1: Niners who have looked great but are also two and

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Speaker 1: three and in third place in their division? Because the

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Speaker 1: Cardinals are two and three and they beat the Niners.

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Speaker 1: So it's strange because the Niners are still like a

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Speaker 1: top rated football team right according to PFF. They're number

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Speaker 1: one in offense, number one passing offense, number three, receiving,

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Speaker 1: number two run blocking, top six in defense. Like, the

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Speaker 1: Seattle team is good in a lot of respects and

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Speaker 1: rated highly, but they're not as good top to bottom

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Speaker 1: as the Niners. The Niners, I feel like, have had

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Speaker 1: really bad luck, especially the past your games.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but this is why we love betting football. We

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Speaker 2: talk all the time about this doesn't matter. If you're

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Speaker 2: the best team. You need a lot of things to

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Speaker 2: bounce your way, and it's all about how you compete

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Speaker 2: at the very end of the games. It's like, you know,

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Speaker 2: that's why if you're a Cowboys fan, I'd be on

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Speaker 2: top of the world. They were dead to right, and

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Speaker 2: Dak had an incredible drive against number one defense to

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Speaker 2: win that game. Tam can be said about the forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers, right they blew a game against the Rams,

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Speaker 2: and you know what you want to say, against an

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Speaker 2: Arizona team, they definitely blew that game. It's like they

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Speaker 2: had a big lead and they kind of fell apart.

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Speaker 2: So right now, this team, I feel like they're better

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Speaker 2: than the Seahawks. The Seahawks, you know, as well as

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Speaker 2: you know has played overall their defense, it looked like,

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Speaker 2: you know, we gave a little bit too much credit

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Speaker 2: for them early on because they were beating up on

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Speaker 2: bad teams, right like, once they started playing good offenses

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Speaker 2: in Detroit, and I mean, I don't know if I'm

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Speaker 2: saying the Giants are that good of an offense, but

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Speaker 2: they're pretty good.

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Speaker 1: So it's like we've all is scheming right now. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Like he gets credit.

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Speaker 2: For that, and don't we feel the same way about

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Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan. Like you just read all those numbers. So

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Speaker 2: it's like I wanted to be on the Seahawks because

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Speaker 2: Chad has talked about the line was three moved up

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Speaker 2: to three and a half. It's like, Okay, there's a

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Speaker 2: little bit of value there in the Seahawks. But then

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Speaker 2: when you really dive into it, is there is there

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Speaker 2: really value here or just have the forty nine ers

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Speaker 2: been unlucky in the end of games and they've kind

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Speaker 2: of fallen apart at the end of these games for

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Speaker 2: different reasons, right, and the end of the day, the

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Speaker 2: biggest reason to me is McCaffrey. This guy average a

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Speaker 2: touchdown a game last year, Like you take the best

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Speaker 2: running back out of that offense. Yes, the guy who's

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Speaker 2: come in, the undrafted free agent Mason's played well, but

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Speaker 2: there's a difference there. Is that closing these games out,

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Speaker 2: you can see a noticeable difference in McCaffrey getting ten

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Speaker 2: touches on the final carry like of the game to Mason. Right,

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Speaker 2: even that Fumbly had against Arizona kind of flipped that game.

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Speaker 2: So that's I'm trying to figure out why, Like, you're right,

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Speaker 2: why has this not been the same for this forty

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Speaker 2: Niners team even though they've been so dominant offensively. It

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Speaker 2: has to be the McCaffrey factor. There's no other There's

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Speaker 2: no other answer to it. It's like that's the biggest

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Speaker 2: difference from last year to this year on offense, the

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Speaker 2: closeout games. They do not have the best running back

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Speaker 2: on football. So in this matchup, I just once again,

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Speaker 2: I think the value is on them. I have this

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Speaker 2: lineup four, so it's not that much value. But as

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Speaker 2: of right now, I'm on the forty nine Ers with

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Speaker 2: the general public. But I mean, you talk all the

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Speaker 2: time chat. I usually like taking the favorites on these

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Speaker 2: Thursday night games, but it's tough because this number is

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Speaker 2: just it's like, man, that's a lot of points to

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Speaker 2: be given up to a forty nine Ers team that

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Speaker 2: keeps getting back door in a lot of these games.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, definitely a number I'm torn on, but I

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Speaker 2: end up betting on this forty nine Ers.

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Speaker 1: Here the h the Christian McCaffrey factor is interesting because

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Speaker 1: the Niners are winning at the end of these games.

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Speaker 1: And I actually didn't think about it until you just

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Speaker 1: framed it the way you did. His ability to be

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Speaker 1: a dependable, consistent time swallower and gain positive yardage and

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Speaker 1: get them closer to the end zone, or by the way,

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Speaker 1: break one open to put a cap on the cover

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Speaker 1: and the win. Those have been the differences. Right the

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Speaker 1: end of the game against the Cardinals, they couldn't close

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Speaker 1: it out because of a fumble. The end of the

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Speaker 1: game against the Rams, they couldn't close it out because

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Speaker 1: they couldn't convert. You know, they've had flukish things, freakish things,

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Speaker 1: not having Jake Moody that clearly impacted their ability to

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Speaker 1: score in the red zone and make decisions in the

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Speaker 1: red zone about what they were going to do. The

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Speaker 1: Cardinals knew what they were going to do that impacted it.

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Speaker 1: It's still to me one of the better teams in

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Speaker 1: the NFC, even if.

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Speaker 2: Right now, when this division is still right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, like now's a good time to bet them, So

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Speaker 1: I agree, Like I want to bet the Niners at

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Speaker 1: three and a half. You know, to me, it was

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Speaker 1: time to fade the Seahawks when they were three to

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Speaker 1: zero and everyone was calling Mike McDonald a genius for

250
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Speaker 1: a team that hadn't beat anybody yet, which we talked

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Speaker 1: about on the show. So next game up, it's a

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Speaker 1: London game, Jacksonville Jaguars and the Chicago Bears. Chicago Bears

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Speaker 1: with the number one defense according to EPA, number one,

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Speaker 1: one of the best pass rushing defenses in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: one of the best pass coverage defenses in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: A quarterback who has already thrown for two hundred yards

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Speaker 1: three hundred yards twice in his career as a Chicago Bear,

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Speaker 1: which is more than Justin Fields did in his career

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Speaker 1: Kyle Orton did, Rex Grossman did. The team's got a

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Speaker 1: plus five hundred record, They're plus five hundred against the spread.

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Speaker 1: The line has moved aggressively in their direction. Talk to me,

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Speaker 1: talk me off the ledge. Tell me why I shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be uphorik, Tell me why in a forty five minute

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Speaker 1: phone call with my buddy Matt, twenty five wasn't spent

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Speaker 1: on Caleb Williams and his ability to read defenses. I

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Speaker 1: swear to god, that's what two grown men in their

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Speaker 1: fifties talked about for an extended period of time. Explain

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Speaker 1: to me why I shouldn't be over the moon.

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Speaker 2: And it's also just hilarious list of names, and you're

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Speaker 2: going back there. Rex Grossman, Kyle Wharton, I mean, what

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Speaker 2: wild times of the mid two thousands where the Bears.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's all we have to hold on to

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Speaker 1: for a run. Kyle Whorton looked like he was going

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Speaker 1: to be the second coming of Tom Brady.

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Speaker 2: No, poor Forte man. I mean, he just never have

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Speaker 2: a quarterback his whole career in Chicago. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I mean, me and you talk. I don't want to

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Speaker 2: beat it down too much. People know I am obsessed.

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Speaker 2: I love Williams, and you know the Week one I

280
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Speaker 2: was scared because I was just like, you know, I

281
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Speaker 2: didn't think his personality his whole career, he didn't get nervous.

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Speaker 2: He was always able to show up in these big

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Speaker 2: moments and make big time throws. And even in a

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Speaker 2: week two he looked a little lost, and I could

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Speaker 2: see it from you, a little bit of panic of like, man,

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Speaker 2: what is going on here? Dude? Are we messing this

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Speaker 2: kid up already? Because we don't have the coaching, but

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Speaker 2: we've seen this talent kind of shine through. Now once

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Speaker 2: we're through five weeks, and it's just you should be

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Speaker 2: over the Moon. I mean, it's very exciting, but how

291
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Speaker 2: is this not the spot to fade this team and

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Speaker 2: take this Jaguars team, Like this is the spot. But

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Speaker 2: I'll wait let the public key come in. Maybe I'll

294
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Speaker 2: get a three on this Jaguars team that they suck

295
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Speaker 2: for our last ten years of our life in this NFL.

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Speaker 2: They suck the Jaguars, you know where they don't suck

297
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Speaker 2: London Like I don't know why. It's their home away

298
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Speaker 2: from home. They just have always known how to travel

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Speaker 2: to London and play well. It doesn't matter whe their

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Speaker 2: coaches who if it was Blake Bortles, if it's Trevor Lawrence, like,

301
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Speaker 2: they've usually performed well. So I'm interested to get some

302
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Speaker 2: stats off Evan about these trends with this Jaguars team here.

303
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Speaker 2: But I already wanted to fay Chicago just because they're

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Speaker 2: a young team and this is peak, Like they are

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Speaker 2: so hyped up right now. They've just had a bunch

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Speaker 2: of really impressive wins back to back. You know, they

307
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Speaker 2: dominated the Rams in the second half that Carolina game,

308
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Speaker 2: they dominated from the get go right. That was their

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Speaker 2: most complete game of the season. So if you're a

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Speaker 2: Bears fan, you want to bet them, I'd grab it now.

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Speaker 2: Why not grab the two and a half. It's a

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Speaker 2: key number. I only think it goes up from here.

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Speaker 2: We talk at the time favorite international games. After the

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Speaker 2: Vikings win last week, they're thirty five and ten straight up,

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Speaker 2: so historically the favorite. This is the spot you want

316
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Speaker 2: to take them on these international games. But man, this

317
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Speaker 2: is this is pretty wild. How much you know just

318
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Speaker 2: your whole division, every one of your guys' divisions is

319
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Speaker 2: so good around it's crazy to think that you guys

320
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Speaker 2: are sitting here at three and two. You couldn't have

321
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Speaker 2: asked for a better start to this Bear season, right,

322
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Speaker 2: Like the way Williams is playing, the way the defense

323
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Speaker 2: is playing. You know, a couple of rough patches here

324
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Speaker 2: and there, but that's the NFL season. So yeah, to

325
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Speaker 2: be say, when you had three and two with rookie QB,

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Speaker 2: I know you gotta be feeling pretty good.

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Speaker 1: So look a couple of weeks ago against the Rams,

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Speaker 1: they came back and won, and I was really frustrated

329
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Speaker 1: because Caleb Williams was standing in the pocket almost like

330
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Speaker 1: a statue, like he wasn't moving his feet, he wasn't

331
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Speaker 1: ready to maneuver anything like that. And again in my

332
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Speaker 1: weekly debriefings on this team with Matt, I was explaining

333
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Speaker 1: my frustration with this, and he said, I actually saw

334
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Speaker 1: that a different way. I saw that as he was

335
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Speaker 1: reading the defenses and going through his progressions and was

336
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Speaker 1: processing it all. And this week you saw a lot

337
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Speaker 1: of that process sped up in a much better way. Again,

338
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Speaker 1: the Panthers are a terrible team and a bad defense

339
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Speaker 1: and not a very good secondary. So you got to

340
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Speaker 1: make the throws, and they were spectacular throws. Also, all

341
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Speaker 1: fans can appreciate this. Ten minutes of that conversation today

342
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Speaker 1: was Matt apologizing and falling on his sword for saying

343
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Speaker 1: the Bears made a terrible mistake and drafting Caleb william

344
00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:05,120
Speaker 1: and they shouldn't get Justin Fields. So you know, there

345
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Speaker 1: hasn't been any panic in Chicago. We haven't been writing

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Speaker 1: the roller coaster in any way whatsoever. But we sure

347
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Speaker 1: are glad we have Cayler Williams right now.

348
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Speaker 2: I'm not going to embarrassing as that they're amit there,

349
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Speaker 2: but they're just different tiers. Like on Justin Justin Fields,

350
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Speaker 2: his his ceiling was never going to be anywhere close

351
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Speaker 2: to what Caleb Williams ceiling is, which is, well, you

352
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Speaker 2: guys are hoping he can turn into a form of

353
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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes. That movement in the pocket. It's just Field's

354
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:34,640
Speaker 2: never had the fields had the one or two read

355
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,119
Speaker 2: pull it down on it, which is really special. But

356
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Speaker 2: Caleb is able to pull it down create plays on

357
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Speaker 2: his own, which is in this NFL. You know, that's

358
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Speaker 2: just everything the top the best quarterbacks like Josh Allen,

359
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, Mahomes, that's lamar, that's what they do.

360
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Speaker 1: So listen, we can't even put that game in the contest.

361
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Speaker 1: I want to spend too much time on it. Yeah,

362
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Speaker 1: you have said what you're going to do, what you're

363
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,840
Speaker 1: hoping to do. I'm probably going to pass on this game.

364
00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,879
Speaker 1: I can't stand the emotion. Washington and Baltimore. Washington is

365
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 1: a six and a half point dog. You flag this

366
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:07,919
Speaker 1: on Sunday night. You wanted to bet Washington. So here's

367
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 1: the scary part. Like the Commander's O line was supposed

368
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 1: to be terrible, but they're top five in pass blocking

369
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Speaker 1: right now. Meanwhile, the Ravens are bottom third in coverage,

370
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 1: which is why we've seen Burrow light them up and

371
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,880
Speaker 1: why until last night Patrick Mahomes was like they were

372
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 1: the only defense he could score against. So the logic

373
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 1: to me is like, will this be a shootout? And

374
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Speaker 1: because of that, does that mean there is a greater

375
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 1: chance Washington has to keep this game close? Are you

376
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Speaker 1: still leading Washington six and a half?

377
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Speaker 2: I am, But the professionals think that Washington gets absolutely

378
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 2: rolled here by this Ravens team. They like the matchup

379
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 2: for the Ravens, they like the veteranship of the Ravens

380
00:20:56,040 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 2: versus young Washington team. But I keep pushing back against them.

381
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 2: You guys have said that for the last two straight weeks.

382
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:04,920
Speaker 2: You said that against Arizona, and you said it again

383
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,640
Speaker 2: against Cleveland. And I know some sharp groups that were

384
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 2: heavy on Cleveland. I mean they really moved that number.

385
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 2: It was three and a half. A lot of books

386
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 2: are back down to three before kick. Like that's some

387
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 2: really heavy sharp money moving that number down because so

388
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 2: much public money was on Washington. I told you this

389
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 2: to me was the most public play of the week

390
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 2: for me, Like I knew this was gonna be a

391
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 2: really heavy public dog. And it feels like Arizona last week,

392
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Speaker 2: Like I'm trying to have to get bullied off this

393
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:33,439
Speaker 2: one because I do see their reasoning that, yes, no

394
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 2: one's denying Baltimore is, you know what number two team

395
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 2: right now in the AFC. I mean you could even

396
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 2: if you wanted to put them above case, but I wouldn't.

397
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 2: But it's just they've played that well against a really

398
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,400
Speaker 2: tough schedule, and they probably should you know, a couple

399
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 2: things bounced their way. They probably should be the top

400
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 2: of the AFC right now that they should have probably

401
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 2: beat the Chiefs and a bunch of other stuff. So yeah,

402
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 2: I get the love for the Ravens, but it's just like,

403
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 2: isn't this a good matchup for Jane Daniels. You just

404
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 2: said it. The Ravens can be passed on. This kid

405
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 2: has a great arm and he's comfortable right now. So

406
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 2: you're right, there's something I need to dive into more.

407
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 2: But I have bet this at plus six and a half.

408
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 2: You know, I don't know what I'm missing right now

409
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 2: with this one with Washington, where it's like, I don't

410
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 2: I think the books that I have are wrong on

411
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,959
Speaker 2: this one. And you know there's plenty of professionals out

412
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 2: there to think, no, they have this right. The hype

413
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 2: is too high on Washington team. This is a good

414
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 2: spot to sell high on them, and I think they're

415
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,359
Speaker 2: just banking on Eventually Jane Daniels is going to have

416
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 2: a bad game. Everyone has bad games. I mean it's

417
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,159
Speaker 2: the NFL. Eventually it happens. And like this is the

418
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 2: classic case of whatever save against the Arizonaly bet ten thousand.

419
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 2: The next week they bet twenty, the next week they

420
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 2: bet thirty, and it's like, you guys are just gonna

421
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 2: keep chasing this kid on Washington. So yeah, maybe I'll

422
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 2: flip by come Thursday if I get more info. But

423
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 2: as we sit here right now, nothing changed from Sunday.

424
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 2: Still still like Washington, still like the matcher for Jane Daniels,

425
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 2: And I think Washington defense has been playing better. And

426
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Speaker 2: then we give them credit for right. They were really

427
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: bad to start the year. They've improved every week. You've

428
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 2: seen them get confidence. I kind of get an identity here,

429
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 2: so's it's been really impressive. But Washington's done these last

430
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 2: four or five weeks.

431
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is interesting. You know, when I was doing

432
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 1: the research yesterday, I really wanted to find the thin

433
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 1: sliced data point that shows me Washington is doing what

434
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: I thought they were doing defensively, because I agree, like

435
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 1: you watch their games and it's not just the offense.

436
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 1: It's the defense that is keeping points down, that is

437
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 1: stopping people. But their sort of advanced metrics are all

438
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: still terrible. Like they're not great in coverage, they're not

439
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 1: great as a pass rush, they're not great tackling. Their

440
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 1: overall ranking isn't very good.

441
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 2: It's an interesting they shouldn't be named two defensive players.

442
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 1: But that's what I mean, Like, I'm not disagree with you.

443
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 1: I wanted to find like why do my eyes tell

444
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 1: me Washington's defense is better than what the numbers are saying,

445
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 1: because it is. Is it just they're playing good in

446
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 1: the right spots, like scheme wise, the right play calls.

447
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: Dan Quinn and his defensive staff are thoughtful about what

448
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 1: they need to do in the exact moment they need

449
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 1: to do it, and the rest of the time teams

450
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 1: are sort of having the ability.

451
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 2: We're trying to play catch up, right, that's the biggest thing.

452
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 2: They're being forced to pass. They're chasing this offense, and

453
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 2: that's been the success for Washington. They know they can

454
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 2: pin their ears back because teams are having to throw

455
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 2: the ball. We said, in the way the NFL is now,

456
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,199
Speaker 2: if you can't run the ball, you're doomed. Like you

457
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 2: need to be able to control the clock that way.

458
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 2: That if teams know you're just gonna be passing, pass

459
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:39,199
Speaker 2: and pass, and they can attack you. So I'm with

460
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,479
Speaker 2: you on that, like I don't. The Washington defense has

461
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 2: been even more surprising than their offense to this point.

462
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 2: I can't believe how well they've played these last three weeks.

463
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: This is an interesting game this week. It is a

464
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 1: classic spot. Are you going to sell high? And do

465
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: you keep trying to sell high? We do the same

466
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 1: thing on the other side. This team has to be undervalued.

467
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: It has to be undervalued the Commanders right now, we're

468
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 1: saying they have to be overvalued. Houston and New England

469
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: we talked about this Sunday night. We said we were

470
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 1: going to bet it Sunday night. We did bet it

471
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 1: Sunday night. It was at I think was it at

472
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: seven or seven and a half? Yeah, it was at

473
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 1: seven and a half, right, we got that seven, but no,

474
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 1: it was seven. It was seven. But we did the

475
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 1: same thing last week with the Cardinals. We were full

476
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 1: of Bravado. We said we were going to bet the Cardinals.

477
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 1: It's what we do, simon. As of Sunday, NFL underdogs

478
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: six plus points are now eleven and eight straight up

479
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 1: sixteen to two and one against the spread this season,

480
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 1: the first time since nineteen sixty dogs of six plus

481
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: points are over five hundred straight up through five weeks.

482
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: This is the best against the spread win percentage we've

483
00:25:56,560 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: ever seen. So again, similar, it's the flip side of

484
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 1: the conversation we just had. Is this when you get

485
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: off that train? You know? Yeah, But here's the thing,

486
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 1: Like CJ. Stroud, this team has really struggled on first

487
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 1: and second down. They've clearly missed Joe Mixon in those

488
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 1: sort of high efficiency moments to get them to third

489
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 1: and fourth down in short yard of situations. They keep

490
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: getting penalties as an offense on first and second down.

491
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:34,360
Speaker 1: It's really inhibiting CJ. Stroud in those later downs. This

492
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: is a luck ranking game, huge gap between New England

493
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 1: and Houston, and Nico Collins probably is going to be out,

494
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: and we saw what happened when Nico Collins was out

495
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 1: against Buffalo, and so I do think that bodes well

496
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 1: for us again I'm not saying we're going to put

497
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 1: in the contest. We did bet it, both of us

498
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: have bet it. You can see it in the app.

499
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:02,719
Speaker 1: I bet it at seven. But we're not gonna put

500
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 1: it in the contest. Simon, We're not putting it in

501
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 1: the contest.

502
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 2: Why do you keep saying that?

503
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 1: Because what we're gonna end up putting in the contest.

504
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:12,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just saying to me, this is just

505
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 2: this is a game we can't avoid. Like I knew

506
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 2: we were gonna love this number on Sunday Night, and

507
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,640
Speaker 2: it's like, this is what this show does. We bet

508
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: these type of spots. Am I little scared because it's

509
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 2: Drake may coming in? Not really honestly. I mean I

510
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 2: saw there was throws to make for Brissett and he

511
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 2: just didn't make them. Like that's a guy that just

512
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 2: isn't that good. And like just watching these rookies, like, okay,

513
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 2: there is upside with these guys once they get it

514
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 2: figured out. Hesitation for me is we're betting on a

515
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 2: rookie in his first game like that. That's always a

516
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 2: scarier proposition. And you saw this year. Look how much

517
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,120
Speaker 2: these qbs have grown just this year at least three

518
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 2: starters from their Week one game, right, Jane Daniels, You

519
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 2: would even recognize it if you go back and watch

520
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 2: his Week one tape. Williams too, Yeah, I would say,

521
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 2: Sam Williams.

522
00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: So that's the looks exactly the same. He looks exactly

523
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: in the same.

524
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 2: That's the fear with us betting this number. It's like

525
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 2: we're getting we're getting a rookie in this spot. But

526
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: I love Drake May's tape so much. I love his

527
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 2: upside so much. It's like he to me, he's gonna

528
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 2: bring such another element to this offense with him being

529
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 2: able to run the ball, like people don't understand. He's sneakly, athletic,

530
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 2: obviously is a great arm, Like there's just gonna be

531
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: a bunch of bunch of throws. We're gonna need him

532
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 2: to make Chad that we're gonna be relying on this

533
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 2: rookie for if it is the starter. So I'm grabbing

534
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 2: the seven now. I could see it going up. If

535
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 2: it is Drake May, that is clear to be the starter.

536
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 2: Maybe it does bump up to seven and a half,

537
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 2: which once again be even harder for us to pass

538
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: on that number. In the contest, But you're right, this

539
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 2: trend is gonna go the other way eventually. That's the

540
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 2: crazy part about It's like last week I thought it

541
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: was gonna go the other way, it just got even better.

542
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 2: So it is tough to read these trends. You don't

543
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 2: know which way they're gonna go. And it's like, even

544
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 2: we'd like the number, it's a little scary. But right now,

545
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 2: if it's per Set, I have a point of value.

546
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 2: If it's Drake may I have half a point of

547
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 2: value on this number. It's just a trend spot, a

548
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 2: spot we like to fade CJ in. So if Nico

549
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 2: Collins Joe Mixon's that both are out, guarantee this will

550
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 2: be one on me and Chad's five. This even if

551
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: it is Drake.

552
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: May I think even if Nico Collins is out, this

553
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: might end up being yeah, one of our five, we're

554
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: gonna be hard pressed to ignore it. And it's not

555
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 1: like it's not like if there's a reversal of this trend,

556
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: if there is some regression for the Big six plus

557
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: underdogs to all of a sudden start cratering and not

558
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: be sixteen and two against the spread, which is obviously unsustainable.

559
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 2: Yeah.

560
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:45,719
Speaker 1: The next game on the board is Cleveland visiting Philadelphia.

561
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 1: Cleveland is an eight and a half point underdog. Yeah,

562
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 1: team that is coming off a bye, and it's very

563
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 1: possible that could be the game where there ends up

564
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 1: being some regression. Very hard game to handicap. Andrew Beaton

565
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: from the Wall Street Journal, he's a writer for the Journal,

566
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: had a great story this week about Deshaun Watson and

567
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: he pointed out some things that we've all sort of

568
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: noticed but we haven't pinpointed, which is obviously, Deshaun Watson

569
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 1: has not been the same quarterback in Cleveland that he

570
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: was in Houston Offensively, Could there be lingering issues with

571
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 1: the shoulder injury that are creating challenges for him to

572
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: get the ball and make the throws that he really

573
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: wants to make. The offense is not making the calls

574
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: that they would normally make. It seems like a very

575
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: conservative offense. A lot of checkdowns, a lot of throws

576
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: that are to the side and not downfield. Are they

577
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 1: afraid that he's not able to make those throws, that

578
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 1: he doesn't have the confidence to make those throws? But

579
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 1: he also made a really good point some of the

580
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 1: analysts that he quoted in the story talked about how

581
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson is not looking downfield when the pass rush comes.

582
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 1: And we've noticed this, right, Patrick Homes, Lamar Jackson. The

583
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: best quarterbacks, they've got their eyes down field even when

584
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 1: the rush is coming in their face. Deshaun Watson isn't

585
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: doing that. He sees the rush, he's looking at the

586
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: rush and then he's bailing immediately. Like there's massive differences

587
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: and those aren't going to change no matter how big

588
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: of an underdog he is.

589
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: No, it's who will never truly know why he regressed

590
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 2: so much. I mean, he was if you go back

591
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 2: and watch, he was incredible. I mean I think he

592
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 2: won three straight divisions with us.

593
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: By the NFL quarterback when he was in Houston, Top five,

594
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: there's no argument.

595
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 2: Yeah. And I remember they were one of those teams

596
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 2: that you talk about the list of teams that were

597
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: like whatever it is, one in four, zero to three

598
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 2: to start a season to make the playoffs. Houston was

599
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 2: one of those teams with Watson like that. I remember

600
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 2: that season they won like eleven straight games before they

601
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 2: were into the juggernaut that is the Kansas City Chiefs.

602
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: And they cover that game, by the way, right in

603
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: the playoffs.

604
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 2: So it is it's bizarre. I feel so bad for

605
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 2: Browns fans because I wouldn't even be able to watch.

606
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 2: I don't think that team, like I just have sustained

607
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 2: for this man. He's so terrible as a human being

608
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 2: and equally on the football field, Like he quit on

609
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 2: his team last week. And I don't care what he

610
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 2: said to the media afterwards, Like everyone that watched that film,

611
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 2: anyone that played sports disgust in Kevin Stefanski's face when

612
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 2: he walked off the field on that fourth down. It

613
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 2: made my blood. Boy, it's just he's just this asshole.

614
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 2: I hate Deshaun Watson so much. So part of me

615
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: is happy this is happening because it's just like this

616
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: guy is a horrible person. But I just feel bad

617
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 2: for the Browns fans. They're one of my favorite fan bases.

618
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 2: No one's more tortured than them, the Bills in Detroit,

619
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 2: like they're just it's just brutal for Browns fans, Like

620
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 2: they have the team, they just don't have the leader.

621
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 2: I want to take the Eagles here, just because they're

622
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 2: getting aj back, they're getting Smith back, getting lane Johnson back.

623
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 2: It's after a bye week, like there should be so

624
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 2: much fresher at home. But as Chad just said, we're

625
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 2: supposed to take the Browns or this is a big number,

626
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 2: and the Eagles haven't blown anyone out in like three years,

627
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 2: so I don't think he goes deserve this much respect.

628
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 2: I'll put all my hate aside. I'll take the plus number,

629
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 2: but this is definitely not one. I'll make one of

630
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 2: my five, but I'll I.

631
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: Gotta tell you, I did not see you saying that.

632
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: Everything you said about Deshan Watson doesn't surprise me at all.

633
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 1: The fact you say you are taking the Browns at

634
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 1: plus eight and a half, I am stone cold shocked.

635
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 2: These are not good. This is way too much respect

636
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 2: to a team. Well, I know that doesn't respect.

637
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: Coming off the buy. I don't know that they deserve

638
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 1: to get eight and a half points. This feels like

639
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 1: a line that you're giving to a team that has

640
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: been dominating heading into the by.

641
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 2: I think he says more about Cleveland, don't you.

642
00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 1: It does, But it's the line you give to a

643
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,719
Speaker 1: team that you believe. He was a clear consensus number

644
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: one seed and is dominant against a team that is terrible,

645
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:11,280
Speaker 1: and so I think this says a lot about Cleveland,

646
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 1: but I think it also says a lot about sort

647
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: of mispricing what you believe the Eagles to be and

648
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 1: everything you just said. People coming back from the injured

649
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:27,399
Speaker 1: list and them getting a week off, some of these

650
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: coaching decision making, strategic issues that they've had for the

651
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 1: entirety of their season, and going back to last season,

652
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: they kind of still exist. The secondary is still not

653
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 1: that great, the linebackers are still not that great. We

654
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: don't know what kind of player we're going to get

655
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:54,919
Speaker 1: from that defensive line, whether it's Jordan Davis or Jalen Carter,

656
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 1: Like those questions were existing before all these guys got hurt.

657
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: So it feels like a lot of points. I don't

658
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: even want to talk about Cleveland Browns again in this context.

659
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 1: There's no way. There's no way we're putting this game

660
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 1: in the contest.

661
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 2: I agree, no way.

662
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 1: India, Tennessee Joe Flacco number one quarterback in the league

663
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: in EPA, which is basically a very advanced metric that

664
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 1: tells you how effective you are on a play by

665
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 1: play base. Number one quarterback in the league EPA last week.

666
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: Let me give you a stat line, thirty three forty

667
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 1: four three point fifty nine three touchdowns against the Jags,

668
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: nearly pulled off a miracle comeback. Made Doug Peterson look

669
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 1: like he wanted to melt into the Florida sun. He

670
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 1: just wanted to eliminate himself from any of the conversations

671
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 1: after he hit that game time touchdown pass. Like Doug

672
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 1: Peterson looked miserable. Joe Flacco also had a nineteen yard

673
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: run thirty nine years old. Whatever this guy is good

674
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 1: for him? Like, the guy is just flat out balling.

675
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 1: And I think we feel worse about the Colts if

676
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 1: it was gonna be Anthony Richardson. I don't like. I

677
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: have concerns about this team. DeForest Buckner not playing until

678
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: at least week seven, Jonathan Taylor is still TBD with

679
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 1: an ankle spraying. We don't know. I don't know that

680
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 1: Will Levis with a week off is any better. I'm

681
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 1: happy to ignore this game unless you have a strong opinion.

682
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 2: It isn't the Joe Flacco thing, though he never played

683
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 2: this well even in his prime years for the Ravens, like.

684
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 1: He was rejuvenated. It's almost like he feels free, unburdened exactly.

685
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 1: I was gonna say unburdened. Like everything is gravy right now.

686
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 1: Any way he plays it doesn't matter. So he is loose,

687
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 1: he is slinging it. He's not trying to live up

688
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: to expectations. He's not trying to prove he's elite, not

689
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: trying to prove up that he's worthy of that big contract.

690
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 1: He's just having fun because he's got perspective. It's amazing

691
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 1: to watch.

692
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 2: And like you just said though, like he's he's incredible

693
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 2: when he is on, like it's it's wild to watch. Rude,

694
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 2: you wouldn't think he's thirty eight, thirty nine years old.

695
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 2: He looks so locked in and his arm strength is

696
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 2: just off the charts, like his deep balls are still perfect. Yeah,

697
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 2: like this this game is fishy? Why would we not

698
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 2: take the Colts here? So I'm with you, I'll have

699
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 2: a better read come Thursday, and on this one we'll

700
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 2: definitely bring it up again people. But instant read on

701
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 2: this one is I have this number of minus two

702
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: and a half for the Colts. Love the number on

703
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,359
Speaker 2: the Colts. Why would I not take the Colts here?

704
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 2: I was kicking myself last Sunday with two minutes into that,

705
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 2: I was like, how did we not we sit on

706
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: the show. We would take the Colts if they were

707
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 2: at three and a half, and somehow we forgot to

708
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,280
Speaker 2: take them Sunday morning, and like, of course they covered

709
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 2: that number because it's Joe Flaka. You're just You're never

710
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 2: dead when you have Joe Flacco in at QB. So

711
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 2: the books know something I'm missing here. So this is

712
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna wait and see, get more info on

713
00:37:58,800 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 2: it come Thursday.

714
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 1: For the old heads, I don't think we can call

715
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco battered Flacco anymore. He's like a light, grilled,

716
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 1: tasty summary Flaco. Now. He's a guy who brings us joy,

717
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: makes us feel healthy, and inspires us. He's not a

718
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 1: battered Flacco. Scooch is going to have to find a

719
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 1: new recipe for the record. Though home underdogs last decade

720
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 1: in September October fifty nine percent against the spread. And

721
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 1: the reason why we highlight September October is because you

722
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:41,319
Speaker 1: get later in the season when a lot of these

723
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: division games happen. Sure, a lot of these games will

724
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,760
Speaker 1: have huge impact on the playoffs, but a lot of them.

725
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 1: Season's over, like you're getting scrubs versus teams trying to

726
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, like there could be imbalance. So I

727
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: think it's a true measure of this stat when you

728
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 1: get it in September October. Not saying we want to

729
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: take the Titans. I'm just saying, yeah, that's why we

730
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 1: think about the Titans. Here I mentioned at the top

731
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: of the show, we are coming to you live from

732
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: our Tommy John home studios. Great games start with great underwear,

733
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:18,319
Speaker 1: and Tommy John makes the greatest. You can see it

734
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 1: in the sign right over my shoulder. That's how committed

735
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,720
Speaker 1: I am to Tommy John. I took down a picture

736
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 1: of something I cared about and put in a picture

737
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: of something I care about even more, which is my

738
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 1: own comfort, which Tommy John one hundred percent supports. It's

739
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Speaker 1: the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It's changed my life.

740
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 1: When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better. If you

741
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 1: love Simon and if you love this show, you love

742
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 1: Tommy John. Get twenty five percent off your first order

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745
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 1: I feel like you're enjoying my time. John reads more

746
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 1: and more every single time because now you're audibly giggling

747
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 1: when I read them.

748
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 2: Because I don't know where you're gonna go. I don't

749
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 2: know if you're talking about your underwear, your shirt, what

750
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 2: are you gonna be saying next?

751
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 1: Arizona Green Bay, Green Bay five point favorite. This is

752
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 1: a funky line, Like I'm surprised it hasn't moved one way.

753
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 2: It did it one of the five and a half

754
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: it came back down?

755
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 1: But oh it did I didn't even see that. Yeah,

756
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:28,240
Speaker 1: Like I said this on Sunday night, the eye test,

757
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: the fade test, it all makes me want to take.

758
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 2: I'm with you the packers. Yeah. And even though like

759
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 2: I don't have much value on this line either, I

760
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,400
Speaker 2: think it is good. I think it's a good number,

761
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 2: and I think there's the book hung or a good

762
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 2: number to get fair action on both sides. Pretty much

763
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 2: like you know, if you took Arizona last week and

764
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 2: you're feeling pretty good on the flip side, Green Bay,

765
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 2: it feels like they kind of stolen last week and

766
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 2: that you know, Jordan Love has looked rusty since coming

767
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,919
Speaker 2: back from this injury, right, he's not really in a rhythm.

768
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 2: You know. They also have a bunch of drama right

769
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 2: now with who was a dobbs? I remember, Yeah, was

770
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: getting upset because they weren't getting touches even though he

771
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 2: was second on the team and at the Y two

772
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 2: position in touches, which was just it was very wide receiver.

773
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: Elect to be a diva in that sense. But I'm

774
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 2: with you. I've actually come around on this green bag.

775
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 2: You're right, this is like a nice spot on the

776
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 2: flip side. If we lose this, I'll be happy for

777
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 2: our future market because this is like, Okay, this is

778
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 2: really Kyler truly taking that next step. Because I said

779
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 2: before that forty nine Ers game, I thought he had

780
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 2: regressed after the Rams game, like he was so good

781
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 2: that you were like, Okay, he's gonna keep getting better

782
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 2: throughout this season. Did not happen, right, and then thankfully

783
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 2: he played pretty damn well against that forty nine Ers team.

784
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 2: Here is even more so, like this is what me

785
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 2: and chatter are saying here is we don't believe in you, Kyler.

786
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 2: This is a game you always lose and you never cover.

787
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 2: You always have a letdown after these big wins historically.

788
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: So I'm with you. This is literally a proven to

789
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 2: be kind of bet here on this on this Green

790
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 2: Bay team, we're saying to theay Arizona, it's like, Okay,

791
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 2: you guys are going to be the sixth seventh seed

792
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 2: this year, maybe contend for your division. This is a

793
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 2: game you must win, and I don't think they're going to.

794
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 2: I do think this is a good matchup for Green Bay,

795
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 2: especially the way they've been running the ball. This is

796
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:21,280
Speaker 2: a nice matchup defensively as well for takeaways against Kyler.

797
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 2: So I'm with you, Chad. It took me to come around.

798
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:25,760
Speaker 2: I wasn't there Sunday night, but now here on Tuesday.

799
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:27,879
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I like the screen Bay. This might

800
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 2: be one of our only favorites we agree on, but

801
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:31,320
Speaker 2: I think we both like this side.

802
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 1: Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose, Simon, and that's what

803
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: we have right now. It's interesting you say that about Kyler.

804
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:44,720
Speaker 1: We don't love Green Bay's defense necessarily as a unit. No,

805
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: I have to give them credit for their ability to

806
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: ballhawk right. And they picked up a couple more interceptions

807
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 1: against the Rams on Sunday, and this is a situation,

808
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 1: Kyler has the tendency to just backfoot toss it. He

809
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:03,919
Speaker 1: will try to make it a fifty to fifty ball.

810
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:07,279
Speaker 1: He will just let it loose. He does that. We've

811
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 1: talked about the Packers and their proclivity sat season proclivity

812
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 1: for interceptions. This year, with Jeff Hafley new defensive coordinator,

813
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 1: they've already got more picks than they had all of

814
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 1: last year. That was true two weeks ago. And so

815
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,280
Speaker 1: I like the opportunity against Kyler to make some mistakes

816
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 1: on the road. A come down spot for sure. But

817
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 1: also this to me is about the Cardinals defense, and

818
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 1: like Brock Purdy was definitely having his way against that defense.

819
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 1: This is not a good pass rush defense. It is

820
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: not a good pass coverage defense. I think this is

821
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 1: a game. Now is third game back, Jordan Love gets

822
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 1: a little more comfortable, he's back at home. They cannot

823
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 1: do the same things that the Vikings did against the

824
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: Packers in his first game, where they could confuse him

825
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 1: and don't forget in the second half of that game,

826
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 1: he got much better. He brought that team back. So

827
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:08,360
Speaker 1: I like the spot for the Packers. I don't like

828
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 1: the spot for the Cardinals, and I find some matchup

829
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: opportunities that I think play to our favor all right,

830
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 1: I'm glad we got there. Boy, we screwed up on

831
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay game because I think before last night,

832
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay was a two and a half point dog.

833
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:28,880
Speaker 1: Now because of Derek Carr's injury and the status and

834
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 1: the way they played, now Tampa Bay is a two

835
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. I don't have anything to

836
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 1: say about this game specifically. Do you have strong thoughts here? Yeah?

837
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 2: It was gonna be a great spot for the Saints.

838
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 2: Now it's like, how do you not load up on

839
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 2: the Bucks in this spot?

840
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 1: Now? Yeah?

841
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 2: Like the biggest reason I was going to kind of

842
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 2: lean towards the Bucks was Vitavey, Like this is the

843
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 2: perfect game for him where it's like, how do you

844
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 2: beat this Saints team? And we've learned now through five

845
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 2: weeks you got to take away the run. Once you

846
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,439
Speaker 2: take that away, it kind of threw is the whole

847
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,240
Speaker 2: offense out of a rhythm. And you know, Derek Carr,

848
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 2: he's gonna try to burn you once or twice with

849
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 2: those deep shots. But you know this backup, QB, I

850
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 2: have zero idea what this kid can do passing the ball.

851
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 2: I don't really know anything about them, but no, this

852
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 2: number two and a half, I grabbed it just in

853
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 2: case it is Derek Carr out. This number will only

854
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 2: go up to me. I mean, especially the way the

855
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 2: Bucks have been playing offensively. It's like, you know, I

856
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 2: know the Saints defense isn't as bad as they showed

857
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:31,840
Speaker 2: in that Chiefs game, but there's still ways to attack

858
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 2: this team. I think the Bucks, of all teams know

859
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 2: how to do that, right they They usually historically Lattimore

860
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 2: kind of shuts down like Evans. That's usually a good

861
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 2: guy win game. That's another thing you can look towards. So, yeah,

862
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 2: this is unfortunate, Like this was gonna be a nice

863
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 2: spot to back this Saints team at home. Now it's like,

864
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 2: how do you not love the Bucks of this number?

865
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 2: Like that's a nice, nice value. I can only see

866
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 2: this going up. Even when I looked before you mentioned

867
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 2: the game, I saw a couple books already showing threes

868
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:02,439
Speaker 2: on the So yeah, if you like Tam i'd grab

869
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 2: it now just in case he is in fact out

870
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 2: of this game. Derek Carr.

871
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: I mean, look, they were terrible last night against the Chiefs,

872
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: and yet through much of the game, deep into the

873
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 1: third quarter, they were still in it. I mentioned I

874
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 1: turned it off. I turned it off last night. They

875
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:25,359
Speaker 1: had third and eight in Chiefs territory. When you make

876
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:27,319
Speaker 1: that third down call, you know you're going to go

877
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,719
Speaker 1: for it on fourth down. And on that third down,

878
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 1: because you're the position you're in, you can't keep the

879
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 1: field goal. It's a little bit too far. You're going

880
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 1: to give the Chiefs good field position if you miss

881
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 1: it. It was like a sixty year field goal. But you

882
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 1: need to keep moving. And like you know, if you

883
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 1: don't score in that series, the game is probably over.

884
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,720
Speaker 1: The Chiefs are going to do something to get themselves

885
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 1: in a position to score again. You need to go

886
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 1: for it on fourth down. Their fourth down call was

887
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 1: a deep pass down the right sideline, and Derek Carr

888
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 1: had not been hitting those passes all day. And then

889
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 1: on fourth down, you know they're going to bring a blitz.

890
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 1: They bring the entire everybody at zero coverage. They can't

891
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 1: complete it obviously, and that's when Derek Carr gets hurt. Like,

892
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 1: there's a lot of faulty decision making on this Saints team,

893
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: and I think some of the performance of Derek Carr

894
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 1: has overshadowed that and maybe papered over some of the

895
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 1: really bad coaching. Lost a lot of faith in the

896
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 1: Saints last night. Gotta say didn't have much to begin

897
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 1: with now I have even less. Pittsburgh Steelers going on

898
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 1: the road at Las Vegas minus three. Kind of don't

899
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,760
Speaker 1: like anything here. I don't like the Raiders QB issues.

900
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 1: I don't like their offensive issues. I don't like defensive issues.

901
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 1: I don't like the Steelers on the road as a favorite.

902
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 1: That's a terrible Tomlin spot.

903
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 2: So get the opponent. They name those gray faces.

904
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 1: Tomlin on the road thirty three, forty one and two

905
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 1: is a favorite against the spread forty five percent in

906
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 1: his career, you know, by comp as a road dog

907
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 1: nearly sixty percent against the spread in his career. You're

908
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 1: signing that feels to me like you want to bet

909
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 1: the Steelers, but you know you don't.

910
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 2: Know, no, no, You're supposed to bet the Raiders here.

911
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 2: This is historically a nice spot to back the Raiders

912
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 2: at home against a team that defensively their splits are different.

913
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 2: They're great outdoors indoors. They're just not the same team.

914
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:25,799
Speaker 2: Usually like this. They're just not good when it's a

915
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 2: fast surface. That's how the Raiders want to beat teams.

916
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 2: You're right, I don't know who the hell the quarterback

917
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 2: is of the Raiders right now as we sit here

918
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 2: on Tuesday. So I'm not putting any money to this

919
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 2: one yet either. On the flip side, I'm hoping hoping

920
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,440
Speaker 2: it's Russell Wilson. I heard some whispers that they might

921
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 2: turn to Russell Wilson. Now, to me, that would be

922
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 2: that would be great if that's true.

923
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:48,759
Speaker 1: I hadn't heard that.

924
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just from my view, I think they

925
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:54,840
Speaker 2: had the same view. Brother we had Sunday night of

926
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 2: like there were guys open. He just had a horrible

927
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 2: game just in fields and and you know that's been

928
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 2: the knock on him. He's been inconsistent in his whole career.

929
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 2: That's a game you just have to win. Like your

930
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 2: defense did everything, put you in so many great positions

931
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 2: to win that game. I just could not get anything

932
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:16,479
Speaker 2: going against are really banged up Dallas defense. So yeah,

933
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 2: we'll see, as we say here Tuesday. Right now, Field

934
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 2: is still the quarterback and we have no idea who

935
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 2: the Raiders quarterback. If come Thursday, it's Minshew and it's

936
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson. I'll take this plus three almost every time

937
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 2: with this Raiders team.

938
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: I thought that coaching decision to take out Minshew was

939
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 1: really strange. I mean, look, he that killed him.

940
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 2: Though I'd be pissed too. They were dominating that game

941
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:40,280
Speaker 2: and he completely sandbag.

942
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 1: They were going to win that game going away. They

943
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:45,319
Speaker 1: were about to go up seventeen to three. He airmailed

944
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,880
Speaker 1: the ball that was picked off by certain and terrible

945
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: run back one hundred yards for a pick six, and

946
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 1: that that completely changed the tone and tenor of the game.

947
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 1: And they you know, they couldn't get their footing back.

948
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 1: But it just creates a controversy for this week. And

949
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 1: Aidan O'Connell was terrible. So like CARDI, Minshew at least

950
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 1: will make the throw. You can get the ball down field.

951
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 1: But we're gonna pause on that one. LA Chargers at

952
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:14,319
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos. Denver Broncos are three point home dogs. This

953
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 1: is a brutal, a brutal handicap.

954
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 2: What a line, though, Were you shocked by this line?

955
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 2: I was shocked when I saw this line.

956
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 1: Shocked, Yeah, shocked because it makes me want to take

957
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 1: the dog. Of course, I want to take the home

958
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 1: dog in the division.

959
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 2: Herbert hasn't looked healthy in three weeks, doesn't matter they

960
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:35,919
Speaker 2: had a bye week. It's like, isn't this a three

961
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 2: to four week injury that needs a heal from?

962
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:40,640
Speaker 1: So here's the thing. You know, during the NCAA tournament,

963
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 1: you always get these bet on games right where the

964
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 1: way the seatings work out, you end up getting the

965
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:51,920
Speaker 1: two teams that you believe are undervalued and you want

966
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:53,359
Speaker 1: to bet on both of them, but you're hoping they

967
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 1: were going to play like Duke in North Carolina, not

968
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:00,560
Speaker 1: each other in the eight nine game. This has the

969
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 1: feel of that to me, because we've got Jim Harbaugh,

970
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 1: who's been brilliant as an NFL coach against the spread,

971
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 1: against Sean Payton, who's been brilliant as an NFL coach

972
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:13,919
Speaker 1: against the spread, who, by the way, like he has

973
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:19,320
Speaker 1: to be all in on Boon Knicks. He is reached

974
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 1: for a second round quarterback in the middle of the

975
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 1: first round and then invested his entire offense in developing

976
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 1: around this guy. He has to work for Sean Payton

977
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 1: have any success at the Broncos right now, and like,

978
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 1: I don't want to bet against Sean Payton, but he's

979
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh's offa by Herbert was still wearing the ankle

980
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 1: brace in practice, but we know Joe All was a

981
00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 1: full participant. Slater and Bosa practiced, although on the sideline

982
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 1: could be trending to playing. It's like, what are we

983
00:51:56,960 --> 00:51:57,439
Speaker 1: doing here?

984
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 2: No, don't tell me the week I'm either on the charge,

985
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 2: I'm not been in this game at all because I

986
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,320
Speaker 2: just don't understand this line at all. So I'll trust

987
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 2: the books and I'll just go against my molleory and

988
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 2: be like, you know what you just said it. They

989
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 2: must think you get both those guys up front for

990
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 2: that old line on this Chargers team, you're neutralized. What's

991
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 2: been so great for that Denver team? Like Denver's D

992
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:25,839
Speaker 2: line has been incredible. Yeah, so you know this whole

993
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 2: game plan, it doesn't really cater towards whatever it is.

994
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:32,319
Speaker 2: It's just the books are looking at this saying this,

995
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 2: this is definitely a Chargers side that it favors them

996
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:37,719
Speaker 2: this matchup. So I'll trust them here, Chad, and I'll

997
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 2: kind I'll kind of swallow my pride here and I'll

998
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 2: ride with the book here. But man, do I have

999
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:45,839
Speaker 2: no confidence in making this bet? I just I'm missing something.

1000
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 2: I don't know what they're seeing, but they're clearly seeing

1001
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 2: something here.

1002
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 1: Maybe this will be a sharp cause, right, maybe we'll

1003
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 1: get some some intel on this. What do you have?

1004
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:54,759
Speaker 1: A power rated at one?

1005
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:57,279
Speaker 2: So I had it, literally, I have the Chargers if

1006
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 2: it was going to be a pick. Once I heard

1007
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 2: Herbert was all good and he was gonna actually play

1008
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 2: this game, moved it up to one. They should be

1009
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:04,920
Speaker 2: a one point favorite, right, you just said it, like

1010
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 2: they're the better, more veteran team. The Broncos are playing

1011
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 2: with house money. Sitting here at three and two through

1012
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 2: five weeks. I mean, this is incredible how well they've

1013
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 2: played early here in the season. So yeah, you just

1014
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 2: expect this rookie to cost them a couple of games,

1015
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 2: Like there's a reason, like you just said, there's a

1016
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 2: reason he did went so late where he did. But

1017
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:28,759
Speaker 2: they've just been hiding it. They've been protecting against it,

1018
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 2: and it's really incredible how they've made it work earlier

1019
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 2: in the season, Like they just don't let this kid

1020
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 2: eat them where you know, looking at Tennessee, they can't

1021
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:39,839
Speaker 2: stop Will Levis from beating them. They have to take

1022
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 2: them out of the game so they can win a

1023
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 2: freaking game with Mason Rudolph, you know. So it is

1024
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,240
Speaker 2: just night and day. These different teams. They are different

1025
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:48,840
Speaker 2: the way they build and how they coach these guys.

1026
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:52,359
Speaker 2: So yeah, like I said, there's something I'm clearly missing here,

1027
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 2: Like there's two points of value in my model right

1028
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 2: now to Denver. But something's off, something a little fishy

1029
00:53:57,600 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 2: with this line. So yeah, right now back to Chargers,

1030
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:01,719
Speaker 2: but definitely a game I'm going to dive into more.

1031
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 1: I'm so glad you said that because when I was

1032
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:09,400
Speaker 1: doing my research all day Monday and then even into

1033
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 1: this morning, I kept thinking I want to back the Chargers,

1034
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,919
Speaker 1: like I just I'm not trusting what I'm seeing from

1035
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 1: bo Nicks, right, you know. And what's nice about getting

1036
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 1: four or five games under your belt is you can

1037
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:29,600
Speaker 1: deconstruct the team's progress and their wins and losses and

1038
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 1: what three and two really looks like. Right, there's sort

1039
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 1: of a gambling transitive property. The Broncos played close against

1040
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. Did we think the Seahawks were not as good?

1041
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:45,640
Speaker 1: Did we think the Broncos were better. Now we're starting

1042
00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:48,640
Speaker 1: to see maybe the Seahawks weren't as good. Then the

1043
00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:52,400
Speaker 1: Broncos beat up on the Jets in the Meadowlands in

1044
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 1: a really bad weather game. They executed at the end,

1045
00:54:56,880 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 1: the Jets did not. Does that mean the Broncos are

1046
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 1: better because we were starting to believe in the Jets. No,

1047
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:04,120
Speaker 1: it turns out the Jets might have just been really

1048
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 1: dysfunctional and that they aren't able to win those games,

1049
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 1: and now they fired their coach. So how are we

1050
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 1: thinking about the Broncos versus the Chargers, who to me,

1051
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:20,880
Speaker 1: there's less volatility, Like if you looked at their EKG,

1052
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 1: you know what you're getting. Every single time when we've

1053
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 1: talked about this, it's why we bet the Chargers is

1054
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 1: seven or a half point underdogs against the Chiefs. They're

1055
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 1: a consistent team. We know what the mindset is. We

1056
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 1: know they want to be physical, we know they want

1057
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:36,319
Speaker 1: to run the ball, we know they want to play

1058
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 1: aggressive defense. We know that they are building the team

1059
00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:40,839
Speaker 1: around the players that can do that. They don't want

1060
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:44,760
Speaker 1: Herbert to make mistakes for them, Like they're in line

1061
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:47,360
Speaker 1: to be the adult team in this game? Do you

1062
00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:47,960
Speaker 1: know what I mean?

1063
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 2: And that's the key too, is they just his Harbass.

1064
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,239
Speaker 2: Whole thing this year has just been Herbert is not

1065
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 2: going to lose us games. We are not turning the

1066
00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 2: ball over. If we don't turn the ball over and

1067
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 2: we let the other team make a mistake, that's how

1068
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 2: we'll win games. And that's what they've done this season.

1069
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:07,399
Speaker 2: They've just played this really boring, sluggish, drawl it out,

1070
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:10,000
Speaker 2: punch you in the mouth, running football with Herbert every

1071
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,040
Speaker 2: now and then have a nice play on play action read.

1072
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:14,440
Speaker 2: But he's not turning the ball over. And that's really

1073
00:56:14,480 --> 00:56:17,239
Speaker 2: been their identity. It's like they eventually they just wait,

1074
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 2: like a venus fly trap. They wait for you to

1075
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 2: make a mistake and then they pounce and it's it's

1076
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 2: been working. Like even in that Chiefs game, I felt

1077
00:56:24,560 --> 00:56:26,400
Speaker 2: like we were gonna win that game if Herbert really

1078
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 2: hadn't gotten hurt again, like they were up I think

1079
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 2: was a ten to nothing at one point whatever it was.

1080
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:33,799
Speaker 2: It was like, they're gonna win this game if they

1081
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,920
Speaker 2: get another touchdown here, and obviously he got more banged

1082
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:39,360
Speaker 2: up and they just they couldn't get there. But yeah,

1083
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 2: there I could see. It's starting to make sense to

1084
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 2: why this number is what it is. But at the

1085
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 2: same time, it's just it's a funny number. Just can

1086
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 2: we talk all the time? We really usually want to

1087
00:56:48,520 --> 00:56:51,120
Speaker 2: take these divisional home dogs, especially in October.

1088
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,800
Speaker 1: Harball is so predictable. He's not trying to be sexy.

1089
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 1: He's told us his entire career who he is. We

1090
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:02,640
Speaker 1: know what we're going to get, less volatility. I know

1091
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:05,680
Speaker 1: the line is funky. I want to hear more intel

1092
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:07,680
Speaker 1: from the sharp calls or whatever else you find out

1093
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 1: over the next forty eight hours. It's not a bet yet,

1094
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 1: but it's on the list. Another game on the list

1095
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 1: Detroit at the Dallas Cowboys. Look, you talked about this

1096
00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 1: on Sunday. The Cowboys are three and a half point

1097
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:24,520
Speaker 1: home underdogs. We would normally hate taking a road favorite

1098
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 1: like this that we're hesitating on the Chargers right as

1099
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 1: road favorites.

1100
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:31,120
Speaker 2: You started as public as we get with public best.

1101
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 1: You started the show nine home underdogs this week. This

1102
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:41,040
Speaker 1: is a week where we like to eat. But you

1103
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 1: Saturday Sunday night, Detroit at minus three, it's gone up

1104
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:47,200
Speaker 1: to three and a half. I don't think that's public money.

1105
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:50,280
Speaker 1: Earlier in the week. I think that's pros betting on

1106
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:53,160
Speaker 1: the Lions, and I don't disagree. I got a whole

1107
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 1: boatload of research and matchup that makes me feel that way.

1108
00:57:56,840 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 1: But you're still feeling that way.

1109
00:58:00,600 --> 00:58:07,960
Speaker 2: Detroit? Yeah, how is this not a slam dunk? Another

1110
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 2: great matchup for Detroit, Like all their strengths is this

1111
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 2: Cowboys team weaknesses like they should be able to run

1112
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 2: it down Dallas' throat and defensively, I don't think they

1113
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 2: mind Dak passing the ball a lot, like their defense

1114
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 2: can't get turnovers. They're not as bad as they used

1115
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 2: to be, especially in the secondary. So yeah, I love

1116
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:31,240
Speaker 2: this matchup, especially when it's at three. But this is

1117
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:33,520
Speaker 2: gonna be the most public side of the week. I mean,

1118
00:58:33,560 --> 00:58:35,880
Speaker 2: how does every Joe public now walk in and take

1119
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 2: a minus three on the lines here? I just I

1120
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 2: think everyone's looking at this Dallas team and just thinking fraudulent,

1121
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 2: Like across the board, there's just so many things you

1122
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:47,520
Speaker 2: don't trust about them. And you know, had tipped to

1123
00:58:47,600 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 2: Dak that was incredible him him driving. I had no

1124
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,640
Speaker 2: faith that he was gonna actually drive that field against

1125
00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:56,000
Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh defense. It was just vintage Pittsburgh finds a

1126
00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:58,440
Speaker 2: way to win that game, an ugly game that's such

1127
00:58:58,480 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 2: a Tomlin game where he wins and you know, sure enough,

1128
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:03,960
Speaker 2: I think it was like a bad snap, they fumbled

1129
00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:05,480
Speaker 2: out of the back whatever it was, and it's like

1130
00:59:05,520 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 2: fourth and four. I was like, there's no way they're

1131
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 2: going to get this and Dak big time throw, perfect touch,

1132
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 2: put it right where he needed to. That's that's why

1133
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 2: you pay a guy like him that that kind of money.

1134
00:59:16,720 --> 00:59:20,440
Speaker 2: It's like he, to me needed that kind of that

1135
00:59:20,560 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 2: kind of game, right. That could be something where maybe

1136
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:25,760
Speaker 2: we're missing that they're riding into this game high and

1137
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 2: they do show up and play well against the Detroit

1138
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 2: team that might be a little sluggish coming off their

1139
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:34,439
Speaker 2: bye week. But me and shiet I don't know that shit.

1140
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 2: You can't bet on that. Models don't predict this stuff.

1141
00:59:36,760 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 2: So I have this number a four and a half.

1142
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:41,640
Speaker 2: I have a ton of value right now on Detroit.

1143
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:45,280
Speaker 2: So unfortunately, like I'm hoping chat right, that is professional

1144
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:47,000
Speaker 2: money coming in. But I'm with the public now, like

1145
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:49,280
Speaker 2: there's still a couple of books that have threes out there.

1146
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 2: We get off this call, I'm heading right down a

1147
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 2: lank city making a bunch of bets on Detroit. So

1148
00:59:54,880 --> 00:59:56,320
Speaker 2: I love this side? You love this side? Is this

1149
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:57,560
Speaker 2: a decision or now?

1150
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 1: I was going to say, this is my exact decision.

1151
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you

1152
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 2: heavy on what I say? Textecute executive decision?

1153
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:10,960
Speaker 1: Are you were going to steal it?

1154
01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:13,480
Speaker 2: I was tempted to because it's still three. But I

1155
01:00:13,520 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 2: know it's not our sponsor's book.

1156
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:16,600
Speaker 1: But I actually thought you were going to go with

1157
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:18,840
Speaker 1: a different Simon says, because I know there's another.

1158
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 2: Game, you know what's coming up.

1159
01:00:20,000 --> 01:00:22,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know you feel pretty strongly about And I

1160
01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:24,640
Speaker 1: just kept digging into this game, and there's there's like

1161
01:00:25,040 --> 01:00:28,440
Speaker 1: in the same way that I like the predictability of

1162
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:30,880
Speaker 1: Harbaugh and the Chargers and sort of the physical nature

1163
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 1: of what he's trying to do. I like what Dan

1164
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 1: Campbell is turning this team into, which is a dominant

1165
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 1: team at the line of scrimmage.

1166
01:00:40,680 --> 01:00:44,920
Speaker 2: Let me tell you something. I got goosebumps, gentlemen. I

1167
01:00:44,960 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 2: love this team.

1168
01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:48,280
Speaker 1: And if you look at the Lions and what they

1169
01:00:48,320 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 1: did when we wanted to get back on that bandwagon

1170
01:00:51,960 --> 01:00:54,560
Speaker 1: I did against the Seahawks, I thought they were going

1171
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 1: to try to physically dominate that team and get back

1172
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:01,680
Speaker 1: to the idea that they are playing football. Football is

1173
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 1: a game of violence. They are going to control the

1174
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 1: line of scrimmage right The line strength right now is

1175
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 1: at that line of scrimmage. Offensively, defensively, they are amongst

1176
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:17,360
Speaker 1: the top five teams in the league because of their

1177
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 1: ability to run, block, pass block, and rush the passer.

1178
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:25,880
Speaker 1: On the flip side. The Cowboys one of the worst

1179
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:28,440
Speaker 1: pass blocking teams in the league. So we've got a

1180
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 1: matchup advantage for the Lions at the line of scrimmage

1181
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:35,240
Speaker 1: with their pass rushers, and they are literally the worst

1182
01:01:35,240 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 1: defense in the league if you look at all the

1183
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 1: advanced metrics from a run perspective. Sorry, I want to

1184
01:01:41,080 --> 01:01:44,400
Speaker 1: be clear, worst rush defense in the league. So again,

1185
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:47,479
Speaker 1: you don't want to keep the ball in Jared Goff's hands.

1186
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:50,920
Speaker 1: I think they got a little bit sort of two

1187
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:55,840
Speaker 1: tricky sexy out of character with Jared Goff. Early in

1188
01:01:55,880 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 1: the season. He was amazing eighteen eighteen against the Seahawks,

1189
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:04,480
Speaker 1: but he was like trying to overdo it. That was

1190
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:06,920
Speaker 1: a dominant physical performance. I think we could see the

1191
01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 1: same thing here against the Cowboys. Love it boom, all right,

1192
01:02:14,520 --> 01:02:17,760
Speaker 1: Atlanta Carolina. Carolina is a six point dog. Why are

1193
01:02:17,760 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 1: they doing this to us? Why? Why are the bookmakers

1194
01:02:23,120 --> 01:02:25,880
Speaker 1: doing this to us? Why are they tempting us? Why

1195
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:28,800
Speaker 1: are the Panthers tempting us? Why do the Panthers play

1196
01:02:28,880 --> 01:02:32,640
Speaker 1: great with Andy Dalton and make us believe that they

1197
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:35,480
Speaker 1: can be competitive and then have them get blown out

1198
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:39,120
Speaker 1: and then make them six point home dogs, forcing us

1199
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 1: to consider the Panthers against an Atlanta team that we

1200
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:46,280
Speaker 1: have also liked to back this year. What are we

1201
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:49,320
Speaker 1: doing here, Simon? I don't mean that existentially, I just

1202
01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:50,120
Speaker 1: mean with this game.

1203
01:02:52,120 --> 01:02:55,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know what we're supposed to do here, We're

1204
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:58,640
Speaker 2: supposed to take Carolina. But yeah, all that keeps going

1205
01:02:58,680 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 2: off on my head chat is this fame and who's

1206
01:03:00,440 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 2: just been shitting on me? And you? And my messages?

1207
01:03:03,320 --> 01:03:05,440
Speaker 2: Anytime I tweet, too, usually have black people that are

1208
01:03:05,480 --> 01:03:08,680
Speaker 2: just fucking brutal because it's like, this is my world, bitch,

1209
01:03:08,800 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna let you just shit on me constantly

1210
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:12,880
Speaker 2: my own world. But this guy's hilarious, Like, if you're

1211
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,560
Speaker 2: funny about it, I'm gonna let you keep it right,

1212
01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:17,720
Speaker 2: keep it going, comment all my postshit on me because

1213
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:20,600
Speaker 2: it's funny. I'm with people. It is funny. Every week

1214
01:03:20,640 --> 01:03:23,440
Speaker 2: he tweets his record on fading this Panthers team. Know

1215
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 2: what that record is this year?

1216
01:03:25,720 --> 01:03:26,919
Speaker 1: Well it's probably four and one.

1217
01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:30,560
Speaker 2: It's four and one chat and I laugh. The kid's right.

1218
01:03:30,760 --> 01:03:33,920
Speaker 2: Every week he comments to me, goes another week making

1219
01:03:33,960 --> 01:03:36,320
Speaker 2: money fading this Panthers team, And I just laugh. It's like,

1220
01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:39,160
Speaker 2: I have another week where I've lost money bettingless Panthers team.

1221
01:03:39,240 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's brutal. I don't know what to do.

1222
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:46,000
Speaker 2: We're supposed to take them. I have. This is a

1223
01:03:46,000 --> 01:03:48,280
Speaker 2: good number of my model, all of it. It's like,

1224
01:03:49,040 --> 01:03:51,480
Speaker 2: but the computer doesn't know. This is a team of losers.

1225
01:03:51,560 --> 01:03:55,880
Speaker 2: They just stink. They're so bad. If Andy Dalton wasn't playing,

1226
01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 2: I would be all over this Falcons team here. But

1227
01:03:59,760 --> 01:04:01,960
Speaker 2: you just there's gonna be a back door, right, That's

1228
01:04:02,000 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 2: my whole thought with this number. It's like, how do

1229
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:05,640
Speaker 2: we not take this big number, especially this year where

1230
01:04:05,640 --> 01:04:08,360
Speaker 2: they've been covering. So I got no read on this

1231
01:04:08,400 --> 01:04:11,800
Speaker 2: one yet, Like I'm tortured. I want to take the Panthers.

1232
01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:15,360
Speaker 2: I like the matchup for the Panthers. This Atlanta team

1233
01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:18,120
Speaker 2: as good as they've been this year. They've stolen a

1234
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:19,760
Speaker 2: lot of wins at the end of games, right, They've

1235
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:22,560
Speaker 2: kind of been a coin flip team and all their games,

1236
01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:24,280
Speaker 2: for the most part, are really close. So it's like,

1237
01:04:24,880 --> 01:04:26,840
Speaker 2: how do we not back this Panthers team? So right

1238
01:04:26,880 --> 01:04:29,440
Speaker 2: now I'm on the Panthers, But I don't want to

1239
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:32,439
Speaker 2: make this one of our official five. I just I'm

1240
01:04:32,440 --> 01:04:33,640
Speaker 2: having a tough time with this one.

1241
01:04:33,680 --> 01:04:36,520
Speaker 1: Chet it's getting interesting. I don't know that we're going

1242
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:38,200
Speaker 1: to have an official five coming out of this.

1243
01:04:38,280 --> 01:04:41,080
Speaker 2: I feel like we're definitely I mean, I have like

1244
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:42,040
Speaker 2: seven games I.

1245
01:04:42,040 --> 01:04:44,440
Speaker 1: Like, so we're I think we've got seven that we like,

1246
01:04:44,520 --> 01:04:45,959
Speaker 1: but we don't have five that we love.

1247
01:04:46,240 --> 01:04:48,560
Speaker 2: There's a big we'll get there. It's just yeah, right now,

1248
01:04:48,840 --> 01:04:50,400
Speaker 2: we just know we have to do and we're both

1249
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:53,400
Speaker 2: fighting it because we're just we're looking our wounds right now.

1250
01:04:53,440 --> 01:04:55,680
Speaker 2: It's tough to dive into these ugly home dogs and

1251
01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:59,520
Speaker 2: you're you're freaking eating hot dogs and rice. Yeah, when

1252
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:01,200
Speaker 2: I'm saving money, that's where I try to save it.

1253
01:05:01,240 --> 01:05:01,680
Speaker 2: That food.

1254
01:05:03,040 --> 01:05:05,840
Speaker 1: That's so funny because to me, I don't eat the

1255
01:05:05,880 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 1: hot dogs anymore. But if I were on death row,

1256
01:05:09,360 --> 01:05:11,880
Speaker 1: my last meal is going to be a Chicago dog.

1257
01:05:12,200 --> 01:05:14,680
Speaker 1: I saw them.

1258
01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:19,320
Speaker 2: Nathan's or Hebrew Nationals are my favorite hot dogs.

1259
01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:23,720
Speaker 1: Now I need Vienna beef like hoppy seed bun, the

1260
01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:27,960
Speaker 1: celery salt, the yellow mustard, the green relish, you name it,

1261
01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:32,800
Speaker 1: that's it. Sunday Football teenya up here, Cincinnati at the

1262
01:05:32,840 --> 01:05:35,840
Speaker 1: New York Giants. New York Giants plus three and a half?

1263
01:05:36,320 --> 01:05:39,080
Speaker 1: You like the Giants on Sunday. I don't have a

1264
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:42,000
Speaker 1: strong opinion here. I'm going to tee you up. Like

1265
01:05:42,040 --> 01:05:46,200
Speaker 1: I said. Joe Burrow's MVP Odds You and Evan called

1266
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:49,320
Speaker 1: this out a few weeks ago. They've dropped even more.

1267
01:05:49,600 --> 01:05:52,880
Speaker 1: They're down to about fifteen to one third in EPA

1268
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:56,920
Speaker 1: as quarterback, second in QB rating behind Joe Flacco, of course,

1269
01:05:57,240 --> 01:06:00,919
Speaker 1: first and touchdowns second and fewest interception with just two.

1270
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 1: Tell me what you're thinking.

1271
01:06:03,120 --> 01:06:08,880
Speaker 2: Oh man, yeah, this is my Simon says, bet Chad.

1272
01:06:09,280 --> 01:06:13,280
Speaker 2: When Simon says do it, we do what Sen says.

1273
01:06:13,800 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 1: They don't sound convinced, though.

1274
01:06:17,240 --> 01:06:19,960
Speaker 2: No I am. It's just I'm looking at the board here.

1275
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:22,040
Speaker 2: What's my favorite bet right now? And I'm making the

1276
01:06:22,080 --> 01:06:25,840
Speaker 2: Simon says, just because I do think this could move.

1277
01:06:26,200 --> 01:06:28,440
Speaker 2: It might get the four, like that's what I'm just

1278
01:06:28,520 --> 01:06:31,040
Speaker 2: double checking it before I do give it out. But no,

1279
01:06:31,160 --> 01:06:34,560
Speaker 2: I think I'm right. I think it's slanted towards slanted

1280
01:06:34,600 --> 01:06:38,560
Speaker 2: towards this going down to three. So give me Giants

1281
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:41,960
Speaker 2: plus three and a half. It's really more about Cincinnati

1282
01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:45,320
Speaker 2: and their defense. I just in what world can they

1283
01:06:45,320 --> 01:06:47,440
Speaker 2: be getting this hook here? And I know the public's

1284
01:06:47,440 --> 01:06:49,120
Speaker 2: gonna come in on them just because Joe Burrow has

1285
01:06:49,120 --> 01:06:53,120
Speaker 2: played so well. But man, like this Giants front line,

1286
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:54,720
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to get to Joe Burrow. I

1287
01:06:54,760 --> 01:06:56,480
Speaker 2: think I think they're gonna be able to get pressure

1288
01:06:56,480 --> 01:06:59,280
Speaker 2: and they're gonna be able to maybe turn him over. No, offensively,

1289
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:02,560
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones looks comfortable, he looks in rhythm. He doesn't

1290
01:07:02,600 --> 01:07:04,240
Speaker 2: look like the guy we saw in the first two

1291
01:07:04,240 --> 01:07:07,840
Speaker 2: weeks right coming back from major injury. So yeah, the

1292
01:07:07,880 --> 01:07:09,720
Speaker 2: fact that I want to get this now is I

1293
01:07:09,720 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 2: think if Neighbors gets cleared, this goes down to three. Right.

1294
01:07:13,040 --> 01:07:14,920
Speaker 2: I think he does move a half a point. That's

1295
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:17,600
Speaker 2: all dominant, impressive he's been earlier in this year, So

1296
01:07:18,360 --> 01:07:20,160
Speaker 2: I'll make this. Simon says, just to grab this now

1297
01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 2: just in case it does drop down to three by Thursday.

1298
01:07:23,760 --> 01:07:27,920
Speaker 1: I have no opinion on this game right now. I

1299
01:07:27,960 --> 01:07:31,880
Speaker 1: think the Bengals are going to be terminally undervalued from

1300
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 1: now until they all of a sudden are in the playoffs,

1301
01:07:35,000 --> 01:07:38,800
Speaker 1: which I still think they could possibly do. Bengals are

1302
01:07:38,800 --> 01:07:40,680
Speaker 1: one and four, they have a five point six percent

1303
01:07:40,800 --> 01:07:44,880
Speaker 1: chance of making the playoffs. Historically, that's how often teams

1304
01:07:44,880 --> 01:07:47,560
Speaker 1: who have been in this position had made the playoffs.

1305
01:07:48,080 --> 01:07:51,400
Speaker 1: I have to believe that lou An Rumo is going

1306
01:07:51,440 --> 01:07:53,720
Speaker 1: to get this defense right. A lot of new players,

1307
01:07:54,040 --> 01:07:58,000
Speaker 1: but Burrow is playing so well right now, yeah, that

1308
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:00,440
Speaker 1: it's hard to bet against him.

1309
01:08:00,400 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 2: Is the problem.

1310
01:08:01,600 --> 01:08:05,120
Speaker 1: I will say. Giants pass coverage, we thought they'd be

1311
01:08:05,560 --> 01:08:09,320
Speaker 1: trash top ten in the league right now. And their

1312
01:08:09,520 --> 01:08:13,560
Speaker 1: defensive line. You got Dexter Lawrence playing top three as

1313
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:17,840
Speaker 1: a defensive lineman interior defensive lineman. So they're not as

1314
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:19,880
Speaker 1: bad as we think as we've been thinking they are.

1315
01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:24,360
Speaker 1: Brian day Ball is scheming the heck out of these games.

1316
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:30,840
Speaker 1: As a coach, I'm as a coach, I am impressed

1317
01:08:30,880 --> 01:08:33,559
Speaker 1: by Brian Dayball. I'm not saying I'm a coach saying

1318
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:45,639
Speaker 1: I've been impressed with Brian Dable. All Right, last game

1319
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:49,000
Speaker 1: on the board, we got to talk about the Buffalo

1320
01:08:49,040 --> 01:08:57,120
Speaker 1: Bills visiting the Aaron Rodgers owned coached, quarterbacked, schemed GMed

1321
01:08:57,680 --> 01:08:59,960
Speaker 1: New York Jets. And if I say that and I

1322
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:05,080
Speaker 1: sound facetious, it's because I cannot believe how this guy

1323
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:09,679
Speaker 1: is controlling this team in a way. This poor Robert

1324
01:09:09,760 --> 01:09:13,280
Speaker 1: solid guy has had to find ways to thread the

1325
01:09:13,320 --> 01:09:17,320
Speaker 1: needle on saying stuff critically about Aaron Rodgers in the

1326
01:09:17,360 --> 01:09:20,599
Speaker 1: public without having to offend Aaron Rodgers in the locker

1327
01:09:20,680 --> 01:09:25,840
Speaker 1: room and getting his high priced, glamorous quarterback mad at him.

1328
01:09:26,360 --> 01:09:29,639
Speaker 1: All or not, the guy's been fired now. The mess

1329
01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:31,479
Speaker 1: is all in Aaron Rodgers. It doesn't matter who's coaching

1330
01:09:31,520 --> 01:09:34,080
Speaker 1: this team. He wants to do what he wants to do,

1331
01:09:34,120 --> 01:09:35,920
Speaker 1: and it doesn't matter how bad it is for the team.

1332
01:09:36,000 --> 01:09:38,280
Speaker 1: So I know what we got to do here.

1333
01:09:40,000 --> 01:09:40,559
Speaker 2: What are we doing?

1334
01:09:40,680 --> 01:09:42,760
Speaker 1: Chad gotta bet the New York Jets.

1335
01:09:44,280 --> 01:09:47,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the only choice. And unfortunately we were really

1336
01:09:47,800 --> 01:09:50,559
Speaker 2: hoping this would be up to plus three. I don't

1337
01:09:50,560 --> 01:09:53,120
Speaker 2: think it's ever going to get there now, especially after

1338
01:09:53,200 --> 01:09:55,479
Speaker 2: him getting fired. I think it was going to be

1339
01:09:55,600 --> 01:09:58,280
Speaker 2: just professionals on this Jets team here now, I think

1340
01:09:58,320 --> 01:09:59,600
Speaker 2: a little bit of public money will come in on

1341
01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:05,400
Speaker 2: them as well. Also love the Jets like this back

1342
01:10:05,439 --> 01:10:07,559
Speaker 2: to back weeks were really gonna wait till Monday night

1343
01:10:07,640 --> 01:10:09,240
Speaker 2: for our picks, but this felt like this was gonna

1344
01:10:09,280 --> 01:10:12,600
Speaker 2: be one of our five coming into this week. Historically,

1345
01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:17,040
Speaker 2: Josh Allen doesn't match up well against his Chets team,

1346
01:10:17,240 --> 01:10:19,320
Speaker 2: Like defensively, they know how to kind of attack him,

1347
01:10:19,680 --> 01:10:23,000
Speaker 2: make him uncomfortable, and that was when he had Digs

1348
01:10:23,040 --> 01:10:25,559
Speaker 2: and Gabe Davis guys he kind of relied on. Now

1349
01:10:26,240 --> 01:10:28,320
Speaker 2: you saw last week right, he struggled to throwing the

1350
01:10:28,320 --> 01:10:31,840
Speaker 2: ball downfield just because he doesn't really have a rhythm

1351
01:10:31,920 --> 01:10:33,760
Speaker 2: or trust these receivers. I don't know what it's going on,

1352
01:10:33,840 --> 01:10:38,120
Speaker 2: but it did not look right. Now only the city,

1353
01:10:38,479 --> 01:10:40,920
Speaker 2: only people living in Buffalo or fans of Buffalo think

1354
01:10:41,160 --> 01:10:43,439
Speaker 2: he didn't sustain a concussion. I think any of us.

1355
01:10:43,720 --> 01:10:46,000
Speaker 2: I'm going back and rewatched it. It's just like, oh

1356
01:10:46,040 --> 01:10:47,080
Speaker 2: my god.

1357
01:10:47,080 --> 01:10:48,519
Speaker 1: That was not a chest injury.

1358
01:10:48,880 --> 01:10:52,600
Speaker 2: No, whatever they're trying to spin, it's total bullshit. I

1359
01:10:52,600 --> 01:10:56,320
Speaker 2: think it's the NFL classic. We got a guy playing

1360
01:10:56,320 --> 01:10:59,679
Speaker 2: on Monday night. We can't have him missing this primetime game.

1361
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:02,679
Speaker 2: They're gonna make him. He's gonna be clear, he's gonna

1362
01:11:02,720 --> 01:11:04,680
Speaker 2: be practicing. He's gonna play in this game. I have

1363
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:08,720
Speaker 2: no doubt we will see Josh Allen. So yeah, this

1364
01:11:08,880 --> 01:11:11,840
Speaker 2: is a nice, nice spot to take the Jets in

1365
01:11:11,920 --> 01:11:15,600
Speaker 2: a would we call this a bilo? I mean this

1366
01:11:15,920 --> 01:11:19,760
Speaker 2: like this to me, this is like everything's kind of

1367
01:11:19,760 --> 01:11:22,320
Speaker 2: going wrong right now for the Jets. Everything's kind of negative.

1368
01:11:23,040 --> 01:11:25,439
Speaker 2: Already kind of love this spot, just the matchup wise.

1369
01:11:26,720 --> 01:11:30,080
Speaker 2: Our only fear is Aaron Rodgers has not looked right

1370
01:11:30,360 --> 01:11:32,559
Speaker 2: in weeks. I mean he's just been bad, Like he's

1371
01:11:32,560 --> 01:11:35,840
Speaker 2: missing bad throws. When there's any bit of pressure, he

1372
01:11:35,920 --> 01:11:39,759
Speaker 2: folds up rather than eluding it. So I get people's

1373
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:42,040
Speaker 2: hesitation here, but this is really about playing this number

1374
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:44,439
Speaker 2: in this divisional spot. This to me is closer to

1375
01:11:44,479 --> 01:11:46,760
Speaker 2: a pick. We're getting about what a point and a

1376
01:11:46,800 --> 01:11:49,639
Speaker 2: half two points of free value here, just because everyone's

1377
01:11:49,680 --> 01:11:52,320
Speaker 2: so down on this Jets team, where I don't think

1378
01:11:52,360 --> 01:11:54,599
Speaker 2: the Bills are that much better, Like this team has

1379
01:11:54,680 --> 01:11:57,639
Speaker 2: major issues and major holes, things that can be exploited,

1380
01:11:57,720 --> 01:12:00,920
Speaker 2: especially by this Jets team. So yeah, let's let's take

1381
01:12:01,400 --> 01:12:04,519
Speaker 2: this jetsing to bounce back after firing their coach and

1382
01:12:04,560 --> 01:12:05,840
Speaker 2: take the plus two and a half Jets.

1383
01:12:05,920 --> 01:12:08,160
Speaker 1: We are getting what we at the Action Network like

1384
01:12:08,200 --> 01:12:11,960
Speaker 1: to call the dead cat bounce the team after the

1385
01:12:12,040 --> 01:12:16,439
Speaker 1: coach has been fired. Story of a tweet from Awful

1386
01:12:16,439 --> 01:12:19,840
Speaker 1: announcing that Matt Mitchell just put in the chat Jets

1387
01:12:19,880 --> 01:12:25,200
Speaker 1: owner Woody Johnson friend say or Eric Mangini, former Jets coach,

1388
01:12:25,520 --> 01:12:29,400
Speaker 1: predicted that Jets owner Woody Johnson would be pissed off

1389
01:12:30,320 --> 01:12:33,240
Speaker 1: if the Jets lost in London because he used to

1390
01:12:33,280 --> 01:12:38,080
Speaker 1: be the Ambassador to Saint James Court aka the ambassador

1391
01:12:38,120 --> 01:12:41,600
Speaker 1: to the UK. Oh yeah, and he knew he was

1392
01:12:41,680 --> 01:12:43,800
Speaker 1: going to have people who he was friendly with in

1393
01:12:43,840 --> 01:12:45,799
Speaker 1: attendance and they were going to give him crap.

1394
01:12:46,040 --> 01:12:47,120
Speaker 2: I that's not true.

1395
01:12:47,200 --> 01:12:51,360
Speaker 1: Gets lost. So we could have predicted Robert slab and

1396
01:12:51,400 --> 01:12:55,479
Speaker 1: gone got the idea of having to bet a Monday

1397
01:12:55,560 --> 01:12:57,680
Speaker 1: night game and have it be in the contest, and

1398
01:12:57,760 --> 01:12:59,559
Speaker 1: it'd be something I have to stay up late for.

1399
01:13:00,280 --> 01:13:01,200
Speaker 1: I can't.

1400
01:13:02,200 --> 01:13:04,360
Speaker 2: You just did it with Derek Carr. I went to

1401
01:13:04,439 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 2: bed early.

1402
01:13:05,520 --> 01:13:08,519
Speaker 1: I went to bed because I just couldn't deal. I

1403
01:13:08,560 --> 01:13:11,439
Speaker 1: took the melatonin and I'm like, I'm done. I am

1404
01:13:11,520 --> 01:13:14,599
Speaker 1: not not doing this to myself. I gotta get off

1405
01:13:14,600 --> 01:13:18,080
Speaker 1: to a good start this week. All right. Well that's

1406
01:13:18,080 --> 01:13:20,840
Speaker 1: where we're at. Before I get into the final bit,

1407
01:13:20,880 --> 01:13:22,600
Speaker 1: I do want to recap a little bit because I

1408
01:13:22,600 --> 01:13:25,759
Speaker 1: don't want people to think we've missed anything. EXAC decision

1409
01:13:25,840 --> 01:13:29,320
Speaker 1: was Detroit. I'm taking the minus three. It's available widely.

1410
01:13:30,240 --> 01:13:34,120
Speaker 1: Simon says, Giants plus three and a half. Other games

1411
01:13:34,160 --> 01:13:37,280
Speaker 1: that we talked about that we started to feel strongly

1412
01:13:37,320 --> 01:13:40,680
Speaker 1: about to narrow down Washington six and a half. We

1413
01:13:40,720 --> 01:13:42,479
Speaker 1: think we're going to get some pushback on that from

1414
01:13:42,479 --> 01:13:47,320
Speaker 1: sharp calls. New England plus seven. We're waiting for more

1415
01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:50,519
Speaker 1: intel on Indie and Tennessee. We want to bet Indie,

1416
01:13:50,600 --> 01:13:53,519
Speaker 1: but it feels like a trap. Green Bay minus five,

1417
01:13:53,720 --> 01:13:57,240
Speaker 1: Tampa minus two and a half, Chargers minus three, Jesus Simon,

1418
01:13:57,600 --> 01:14:01,800
Speaker 1: Detroit minus three and a half, Carolina plus six. We

1419
01:14:01,880 --> 01:14:05,880
Speaker 1: got nine freaking home dogs, and we got six different

1420
01:14:05,960 --> 01:14:08,200
Speaker 1: games here that are favorites. What are we doing.

1421
01:14:09,600 --> 01:14:11,320
Speaker 2: It's gonna come back around. We said it last week

1422
01:14:11,320 --> 01:14:12,680
Speaker 2: when we fell into the trap. Anyway, we said the

1423
01:14:12,680 --> 01:14:14,840
Speaker 2: public was going to finally have a good week. Yeah,

1424
01:14:14,840 --> 01:14:16,800
Speaker 2: what do we do anyway, we still bet a bunch

1425
01:14:16,800 --> 01:14:19,439
Speaker 2: of dogs, so I'm trying to find the fine balance,

1426
01:14:19,520 --> 01:14:20,639
Speaker 2: cheed fine balance.

1427
01:14:20,680 --> 01:14:25,080
Speaker 1: Here a reminder your favorite podcast is presented by BED

1428
01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:28,040
Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. T terms

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Speaker 1: conditions restrictions apply well. Friends, Simon and I will return

1440
01:15:05,000 --> 01:15:06,960
Speaker 1: with our next episode of The Favorites on the Action

1441
01:15:06,960 --> 01:15:10,360
Speaker 1: Network YouTube page this Thursday, eleven am Eastern to cover

1442
01:15:10,400 --> 01:15:13,519
Speaker 1: our NFL Week six Best Bets. Sign up to the

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Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want feedback as a gift

1446
01:15:23,840 --> 01:15:34,320
Speaker 1: till next time, Love you. Action Network reminds you please

1447
01:15:34,360 --> 01:15:37,760
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

1448
01:15:37,800 --> 01:15:40,880
Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help us Available twenty four to seven

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Speaker 1: at one eight hundred gambler