1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:05,520
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's on target.

2
00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:07,560
Speaker 2: It is good yo.

3
00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:15,400
Speaker 3: All right, here we go throwing into spectacular.

4
00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:19,759
Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cash to stop. We'll see most

5
00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,160
Speaker 2: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win. God,

6
00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:24,599
Speaker 2: that's incredible.

7
00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:26,720
Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks.

8
00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,280
Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right. This is the

9
00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:31,280
Speaker 2: ultimate combine you want to pull.

10
00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:35,720
Speaker 3: And we are underway.

11
00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:41,479
Speaker 2: What's up everybody? Happy New Year, and welcome to the

12
00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:45,479
Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast. I am your host, Chris Raybond, and

13
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:50,159
Speaker 2: this is the first ever NFL Week eighteen betting preview

14
00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,000
Speaker 2: with odds courtesy of bet MGM, the official odds provider

15
00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,440
Speaker 2: of the Action Network Podcast. I'm joined as always by

16
00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:01,760
Speaker 2: my Action Network colleague and the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

17
00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:07,000
Speaker 2: Stucky Stuck. Happy New Year, what's going on? Let's going on?

18
00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:08,920
Speaker 3: Brother, Happy New Year, happening year to everyone out there.

19
00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,440
Speaker 3: So a third ever Week eighteen in NFL A sure

20
00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,760
Speaker 3: early nineties they had one when teams had a dated

21
00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:17,880
Speaker 3: to double by, and then teams complained and said that

22
00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:19,520
Speaker 3: just messed up with their rhythm, so they went back

23
00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:21,760
Speaker 3: to seventeen, and then with nine to eleven there was

24
00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:24,720
Speaker 3: an eighteenth week as well, Week seventeen went well for me.

25
00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:29,320
Speaker 3: Hopefully people swept my five picks. I went four and

26
00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,240
Speaker 3: one here, but by the time the podcast released, I

27
00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:34,319
Speaker 3: think Washington was like plus four and a half everywhere.

28
00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,000
Speaker 3: So hopefully you got a better number than I did

29
00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:37,920
Speaker 3: on Washington because I lost my plus three and a

30
00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:43,520
Speaker 3: half and we had a sweat the Raiders under a

31
00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:47,600
Speaker 3: good week seventeen, but who cares. We're on to Week

32
00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:49,520
Speaker 3: eighteen and then the playoffs, which I can't wait for.

33
00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:54,480
Speaker 3: And let's just hope for minimum COVID interruptions with the playoffs.

34
00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:58,600
Speaker 2: All right, we'll jump straight into the Weekend six Pack

35
00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,520
Speaker 2: for Week eighteen by the Athletic Brewing Company before we

36
00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 2: do a couple quick notes. First, in case you're new here,

37
00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:08,359
Speaker 2: please download the free, award winning Action Network app. It's

38
00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,959
Speaker 2: the top rated app for sports betters and it lets

39
00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,200
Speaker 2: you track every bet that you make. Speaking of the app,

40
00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,960
Speaker 2: if you want to reference our six pack bets anytime,

41
00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:21,359
Speaker 2: just use the apps follow feature and follow Sunday six Pack.

42
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,720
Speaker 2: We log our picks there every Friday during the NFL season.

43
00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,600
Speaker 2: And third, Spotify now lets you rate podcasts, So if

44
00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,760
Speaker 2: you listen to this show on Spotify or use Spotify

45
00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:35,040
Speaker 2: at all, please give us a five star rating. It

46
00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,600
Speaker 2: really helps us out and we do greatly appreciate it,

47
00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,480
Speaker 2: and of course thank you guys as always for listening.

48
00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,320
Speaker 2: Let's give you what you want. Let's get into the

49
00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:48,800
Speaker 2: Week eighteen Sunday six Pack presented by our friends at

50
00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:50,200
Speaker 2: Athletic Brewing Company.

51
00:02:51,320 --> 00:03:04,320
Speaker 1: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack, all.

52
00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,200
Speaker 2: Right, stuck with your near sweep, you still overtook me,

53
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,799
Speaker 2: so you're up fifty one to forty nine. Again. We

54
00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:11,680
Speaker 2: switched the scoring up towards the end of the year,

55
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,200
Speaker 2: so each pick of the six pack is worth the point.

56
00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:16,880
Speaker 2: Total is worth the point. We'll get to that in

57
00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:19,359
Speaker 2: our next segment, and then the segment after that we

58
00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:21,840
Speaker 2: do our favorite teaser that's also worth a point, so

59
00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,519
Speaker 2: still five points total a bonus. If you get to

60
00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,160
Speaker 2: sweep fifty one to forty nine, you're up. I'm up

61
00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,840
Speaker 2: first in Week eighteen, and I am going with the

62
00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:36,080
Speaker 2: San Francisco forty nine ers plus four and a half

63
00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:40,920
Speaker 2: at bet MGM against the Los Angeles Rams. And this

64
00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,760
Speaker 2: is Niners Rams Week. It's just kind of been a staple.

65
00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,560
Speaker 2: If you're better these last couple of years. When the

66
00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,280
Speaker 2: Niners play the Rams, you gotta take them. I mean,

67
00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:53,280
Speaker 2: Shanahan versus McVeigh all time six and three against the spread,

68
00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,760
Speaker 2: covering by an average of four point eight points per game.

69
00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,920
Speaker 2: San Francisco has won each of the last five meeting

70
00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,560
Speaker 2: straight up against the Rams. The first meeting this year,

71
00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,440
Speaker 2: it was in San Francisco. Obviously not a big travel

72
00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:10,480
Speaker 2: concern between these two interstate rivals, but San Francisco won

73
00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:14,040
Speaker 2: it thirty one to ten. They outgained LA three thirty

74
00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:18,120
Speaker 2: five to two, seventy eight fifty seven yard differential. They

75
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,760
Speaker 2: scored on four of a drives excluding Neil downs. Well,

76
00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,280
Speaker 2: the Rams scored are just two of ten drive and

77
00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,920
Speaker 2: San Francisco won despite nine penalties to the Rams five,

78
00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,960
Speaker 2: and despite Cooper Cup going eleven for one to twenty two.

79
00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,360
Speaker 2: And by the way, Cooper Cup, you want a bonus

80
00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:35,160
Speaker 2: bet Cooper Cup needs I believe it's one hundred and

81
00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,920
Speaker 2: thirty six yards to break the record. Yeah, Cooper Cup

82
00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,920
Speaker 2: over whatever is receiving yards line is this week. But

83
00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,760
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be key here that the Niners

84
00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,200
Speaker 2: can kind of devise these game plans to slow down

85
00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,760
Speaker 2: the Rams and Stafford because we know kup is gonna

86
00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:52,520
Speaker 2: get his I saw that, Andbrey Thomas and Diamador Leonora

87
00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:54,960
Speaker 2: got placed on the COVID list today. So the Niners,

88
00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,520
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna get penalties out of them. But

89
00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,200
Speaker 2: I expect it to be a well skiing game. I

90
00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:01,880
Speaker 2: expect both teams play hard, and I expect it to

91
00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,720
Speaker 2: be a close one. And also I've kind of been

92
00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:07,320
Speaker 2: noticing Matthew Stafford. Defenses are starting to catch on to

93
00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,120
Speaker 2: him a little bit in this Rams offense. The first

94
00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,920
Speaker 2: eight game, Stafford had a sixty nine percent completion rate,

95
00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,680
Speaker 2: nine point one yards per attempt, a passer rating of

96
00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:21,120
Speaker 2: one to eighteen, a touchdown interception ratio of twenty two

97
00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:24,400
Speaker 2: to four. And then his last eight game, so the

98
00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:26,960
Speaker 2: second half can kind of divide the season into two

99
00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:28,760
Speaker 2: here and now we got that seventeenth game, so he's

100
00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,359
Speaker 2: played sixteen his last dight, completion PERCENTERG drops from sixty

101
00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,159
Speaker 2: nine to sixty six, yards per attempt, drops from nine

102
00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,160
Speaker 2: point one to seven point three, the rating drops from

103
00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:41,599
Speaker 2: one eighteen to ninety to twenty eight point drop sixteen

104
00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,960
Speaker 2: touchdowns and eleven picks compared to that twenty two to

105
00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,840
Speaker 2: four ratio and one of the things that's been happening.

106
00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,400
Speaker 2: And I kind of wonder if it's that absence of

107
00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:54,440
Speaker 2: Robert Woods a little stuck because I know Odell Beckham

108
00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,160
Speaker 2: talent wise, might be even more talented than Woods. But

109
00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,240
Speaker 2: I've noticed that over those first eight games, staff It's

110
00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:02,480
Speaker 2: time to throw was two point five seconds, just over

111
00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,440
Speaker 2: two point five seconds. His last day, it's up to

112
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,720
Speaker 2: nearly two point eight seconds. That's a big difference when

113
00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,880
Speaker 2: you're talking about you know, milliseconds guys getting to the quarterback,

114
00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:15,479
Speaker 2: you know, messing up to throw receivers, you know, being

115
00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,640
Speaker 2: able to get open or not getting open as fast.

116
00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,400
Speaker 2: So I don't know if it's all on Stafford. I

117
00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:23,360
Speaker 2: don't know if it's the you know, kind of the

118
00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:25,560
Speaker 2: mind meldy how it woulds you know, kind of taking

119
00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:28,200
Speaker 2: some pressure off Cup or what. Beckham has been productive,

120
00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:32,240
Speaker 2: but it just hasn't quite been the same offense for

121
00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:34,440
Speaker 2: the Rams. I think San Francisco can hang in this

122
00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,360
Speaker 2: game with their offense. I expect there'll still be some

123
00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,800
Speaker 2: sloppiness on defense. You know why I like this number here.

124
00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:43,159
Speaker 2: I think the ram most likely outcome is probably still

125
00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:45,400
Speaker 2: Rams winning by a field goal. I think the Niners

126
00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:46,880
Speaker 2: have a good chance of winning this game out right,

127
00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,960
Speaker 2: but love getting this at four and a half. Anything

128
00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:53,120
Speaker 2: above three I think is a plus ev play here.

129
00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,560
Speaker 2: So like the forty nine Ers plus four and a

130
00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:57,880
Speaker 2: half in La.

131
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I completely agree. I think this line is way

132
00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:02,880
Speaker 3: too well. I came out six. I got some six

133
00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:05,040
Speaker 3: when it opened, and I was shut uped.

134
00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,040
Speaker 2: I was so jealous because I like, by the time

135
00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,360
Speaker 2: I loooked, it was already like four or four and

136
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:11,880
Speaker 2: a half. I think I got a four and a half.

137
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:13,960
Speaker 2: But yeah, I was jealous that I sick.

138
00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just like, it's just really sick. Because

139
00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:19,440
Speaker 3: one thing you get to keep in mind, this is

140
00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:21,360
Speaker 3: a road game for San Francisco, and we talked about

141
00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:23,160
Speaker 3: this a couple weeks ago, but it's gonna feel like

142
00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,560
Speaker 3: a home game for San Franz. There's going to be

143
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,560
Speaker 3: more forty nine Ers fans there. We've talked about this

144
00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,200
Speaker 3: game before. I remember when Sala was a defensive coordinator

145
00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,880
Speaker 3: and I kept thinking the game was in San Francisco

146
00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:36,360
Speaker 3: where they dominated the Rams. I was like, what, wait,

147
00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,120
Speaker 3: I keep forgetting because the whole crowd was red and

148
00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,000
Speaker 3: Jeffers is gonna need to win to get in. You know,

149
00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:44,560
Speaker 3: there's obviously a lot more forty nine Ers fans out there.

150
00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,680
Speaker 3: I expect maybe eighty percent of this crowd to be

151
00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:49,760
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers fans. And by the way, forty nine

152
00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,200
Speaker 3: Ers need to win to get in or they need

153
00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:55,320
Speaker 3: the Saints to lose. Those are their their two pass

154
00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:57,360
Speaker 3: If they lose. In the Saints win, the forty nine

155
00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:02,040
Speaker 3: Ers are shockingly out of the playoffs. Jimmy g might

156
00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,080
Speaker 3: go Lance. I thought looked a lot more comfortable in

157
00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:06,680
Speaker 3: the second half, which I think is a good thing

158
00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:09,280
Speaker 3: leading up to this week, Like he got a full

159
00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,840
Speaker 3: game under his belt last week. I think that'll really help.

160
00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,000
Speaker 3: Just a good matchup for the forty nine ers as well.

161
00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:16,520
Speaker 3: This is you know, these this is the team that there.

162
00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,160
Speaker 3: You know, teams like the Rams and the Packers. They

163
00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,520
Speaker 3: don't want to see these, you know, run first offenses.

164
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:27,440
Speaker 3: He can like the how with Ramsey's importance becomes it's

165
00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,160
Speaker 3: just not as important when they you know, if you're

166
00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,959
Speaker 3: facing like a Bucks team, right, So I love the

167
00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,520
Speaker 3: match up here. Some of the guys in the secondary

168
00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,680
Speaker 3: and the COVID issues for San Francisco are a bit concerning,

169
00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,120
Speaker 3: but a lot of them were Tuesday, so with the

170
00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:43,920
Speaker 3: new rules, you could play Sunday. And this is for

171
00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:47,199
Speaker 3: the playoffs, so I would assume that a lot of

172
00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:53,400
Speaker 3: them get cleared. And you know it's at this point

173
00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,120
Speaker 3: if you go on Tuesday, just you need your doctors

174
00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,640
Speaker 3: cleared and then not showing symptoms, so you gotta be

175
00:08:57,679 --> 00:08:59,599
Speaker 3: really feeling sick. I feel like to not play in

176
00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:01,360
Speaker 3: this game. So I think that's a good thing here.

177
00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:05,040
Speaker 3: Taking the dog in this division, especially over a field goal,

178
00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,760
Speaker 3: never a bad idea. I think they're seventy percent against

179
00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,880
Speaker 3: the spread this year. I make this under a field goal,

180
00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,480
Speaker 3: so I completely agree here. I think San Francisco is

181
00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:16,120
Speaker 3: a really good shot to win this game, and Stafford's

182
00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,400
Speaker 3: just out right I think that it. Yeah, it might

183
00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:23,640
Speaker 3: be the loss of woods. By the way Stafford against

184
00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,719
Speaker 3: winning teams didn't happen again last week too. It's just

185
00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,720
Speaker 3: he just fails to cover. But since Week nine, an

186
00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:36,719
Speaker 3: EPA plus completion percentage over expectation composite among thirty nine

187
00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,640
Speaker 3: quarterbacks with at least one hundred plays, Stafford ranks twenty

188
00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:44,959
Speaker 3: third in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation deposite. You

189
00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:49,600
Speaker 3: know Renks twenty fourth basically just right behind him Jared Goff.

190
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,800
Speaker 3: So yeah, Stafford has not been good. He's been a

191
00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:57,600
Speaker 3: turnover machine. I'm not sure what's going on, but it's

192
00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,440
Speaker 3: not great. You have the Rams coming back across country

193
00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,720
Speaker 3: after an East Coast game and you have to prepare

194
00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:07,000
Speaker 3: for basically two quarterbacks, right like, So I think that

195
00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:08,800
Speaker 3: helps the forty nine ers as well, like are they

196
00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:11,280
Speaker 3: going to play both? They might, but you got to prepare. Okay,

197
00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,000
Speaker 3: it's Jimmy g was limited today. You got to prepare

198
00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:16,720
Speaker 3: for some lance packages which will look a little different.

199
00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:18,280
Speaker 3: So I think that works in the forty nine ers

200
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:20,400
Speaker 3: favors as well. And this is just the circle of

201
00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:24,360
Speaker 3: life in the NFC West. The forty nine ers just

202
00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:28,400
Speaker 3: beat the ReBs, So I completely agree here. One question

203
00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:32,679
Speaker 3: before I go to I was gonna say, a lot

204
00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:34,480
Speaker 3: of these. You have a lot of these in the

205
00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:36,920
Speaker 3: prop market, so I'm not a prop player unless it's

206
00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,800
Speaker 3: you know, the Super Bowl these So you have a

207
00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:45,079
Speaker 3: couple of things, records and incentives. Does the market generally

208
00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,719
Speaker 3: price them in? Is their value there? Does it get

209
00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:50,439
Speaker 3: over priced? Do you have any insight there?

210
00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,160
Speaker 2: First of all, it's it's not easy to get get

211
00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,599
Speaker 2: catch wind of all the incentives you kind of have

212
00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,280
Speaker 2: to do, you know, even somebody like me who's a

213
00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,199
Speaker 2: little more dialed in, it's still you still have to

214
00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,320
Speaker 2: do a lot of research and go to different places

215
00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:06,679
Speaker 2: to kind of find these incentives. But generally, I mean,

216
00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:08,840
Speaker 2: the market is not spending a ton of time pricing props,

217
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:10,920
Speaker 2: so it's still not as sharp as it could be. Now,

218
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:14,400
Speaker 2: what will happen is in situations where you know, people

219
00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,839
Speaker 2: like us are aware, we will bet them up and

220
00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,079
Speaker 2: the mark so the market will adjust. But it's not

221
00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,200
Speaker 2: like if I would be surprised if the market still

222
00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,240
Speaker 2: doesn't come out with KUP at at one hundred and

223
00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:27,760
Speaker 2: thirty five and a half, I think it would still

224
00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,160
Speaker 2: come out below that, because that's just a monster number, right,

225
00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:33,120
Speaker 2: you know. So I think what will happen is it

226
00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:36,240
Speaker 2: will come out but still a little high than usual,

227
00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:38,719
Speaker 2: higher than usual, but they'll still rely on kind of

228
00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,000
Speaker 2: people to bet it up and kind of adjust. And

229
00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,400
Speaker 2: remember they're not posting a lot of these props until

230
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:45,439
Speaker 2: later in the week anyway. This is where it really

231
00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,440
Speaker 2: makes sense to kind of shop around at different books

232
00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:49,319
Speaker 2: and have different accounts because then you can start to

233
00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:50,360
Speaker 2: get a lot more down.

234
00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, because the limits aren't as high, the market isn't

235
00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:56,920
Speaker 3: as efficient. I always tell people, if youel like starting

236
00:11:56,960 --> 00:12:00,720
Speaker 3: out to build a bankroll, you know, follow you curner

237
00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,640
Speaker 3: like on props because that's you know, that's how you

238
00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,640
Speaker 3: can build your bankroll early. And you know eventually you

239
00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:10,439
Speaker 3: might get limited to betting. But when you're first starting out, man,

240
00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,600
Speaker 3: get get those props out there. And we have such

241
00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:13,440
Speaker 3: good prop content.

242
00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:15,559
Speaker 2: I could go, I'm in la, I could go to

243
00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,840
Speaker 2: this game and just fuck with Stafford in this game.

244
00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,599
Speaker 2: But to your point, he is. I just looked it

245
00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:23,960
Speaker 2: up in our actual ABS data. Thirty two fifty two

246
00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:29,400
Speaker 2: and two against the spread against teams with winning records

247
00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:32,920
Speaker 2: coming into the game. That's thirty eight percent failing to

248
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:37,720
Speaker 2: cover by nearly four points per contest. So you would

249
00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:41,280
Speaker 2: have a twenty one and a half percent ROI if

250
00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,480
Speaker 2: you bet against Stafford anytime he was playing a winning team,

251
00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:46,640
Speaker 2: anytime of the year. It could be Week two against

252
00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,000
Speaker 2: a one and oh team, it could be Week seventeen

253
00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:52,280
Speaker 2: against the winning team. It doesn't matter. It's been a struggle.

254
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,719
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's that's just the kind of bonus that

255
00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:56,280
Speaker 2: you're getting here. You're taking the Niners.

256
00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:58,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, without Woods. One of the things I look

257
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,000
Speaker 3: for with the when the Rams. One of the reasons

258
00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:04,000
Speaker 3: I like the Ravens last week was the Ravens run

259
00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:06,800
Speaker 3: defense has been really good. And the Rams, you know,

260
00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,720
Speaker 3: you think of them, it's like Stafford and these receivers,

261
00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:14,199
Speaker 3: but their receiving core isn't like elite and everything is

262
00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,000
Speaker 3: built off of the run in mcveigh's offense. So if

263
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,199
Speaker 3: you don't have to dedicate too many resources to the

264
00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,040
Speaker 3: run and you can stop it, then you're putting them

265
00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,440
Speaker 3: in passing situations and they're a lot easier to defend.

266
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,600
Speaker 3: And the forty nine ers run defense has been really strong.

267
00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,240
Speaker 3: They might get some reinforcements on that front as well

268
00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,679
Speaker 3: this week. So yeah, I agree here I make this

269
00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:36,160
Speaker 3: under a field goal and I love the matchup. All right.

270
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,160
Speaker 3: For my first pick of the second overall of the

271
00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:44,720
Speaker 3: week eighteen Weekend six pack, I am going let's get ugly.

272
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Jacksonville Jaguars plus fifteen and a

273
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,240
Speaker 3: half at vet MGM. Now, if you know me and

274
00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,840
Speaker 3: you've listened to this podcast in the past couple of years,

275
00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,439
Speaker 3: you know, in the final week of the season, almost

276
00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:04,400
Speaker 3: always betting a couple of teams that are eliminated, that

277
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,599
Speaker 3: are playing teams that need to win, and you have

278
00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,720
Speaker 3: that here. The Colts need to win to get in. Now,

279
00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:11,280
Speaker 3: if they lose, they can still get in, but it

280
00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,880
Speaker 3: gets really iffy. So this is a must win game

281
00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 3: for them. By the way, they haven't won in Jacksonville

282
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:19,640
Speaker 3: in like seven years, I think, and this the cults are.

283
00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,240
Speaker 3: I've played the Jags last year, so I day six

284
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,440
Speaker 3: pack plus fifteen at home against the Colts who needed

285
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,200
Speaker 3: to win. Mike Glennon started for the Jags, and the

286
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,040
Speaker 3: Jags covered. They lost by fourteen, but they were down six.

287
00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:35,840
Speaker 3: They were down six with the ball late four minutes ago,

288
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,640
Speaker 3: and then they punted and then the Colts he broke

289
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:41,400
Speaker 3: a run in the final minutes and then went for

290
00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:43,800
Speaker 3: two and one by fourteen. But if you look back,

291
00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:47,040
Speaker 3: you know, so what happens in this week Week eighteen

292
00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,520
Speaker 3: is it's you know, there's there's an inflation and attacks

293
00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:54,320
Speaker 3: on these must win teams and they're just inflated. Who

294
00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:56,080
Speaker 3: wants to back the Jags? So you know, the Colts

295
00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,080
Speaker 3: have to win, right, And I think that the lines

296
00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,600
Speaker 3: get super infla sometimes and I think that's the case here.

297
00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:03,680
Speaker 3: I don't think there should be two touchdowns. You have

298
00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:05,960
Speaker 3: to learn a couple points over if you look back

299
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,000
Speaker 3: historically since two thousand and three, per Action Labs, teams

300
00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:10,800
Speaker 3: that are eliminated to the final week playing a team

301
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,880
Speaker 3: that must win, but it's not playing for seeding, so

302
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,120
Speaker 3: either must win or you know, if they lost, they

303
00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,880
Speaker 3: would need help, so they're a must win spot. Those

304
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,440
Speaker 3: teams that must win are sixteen and twenty six against

305
00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:24,160
Speaker 3: the spread thirty eight percent. And if you focus solely

306
00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:27,200
Speaker 3: on favorites of more than a field goal, those have

307
00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,160
Speaker 3: gone ten to twenty two against the spread. That's thirty

308
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 3: one point two percent. If you don't love that sample size,

309
00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:36,720
Speaker 3: to go back to nineteen eighty final two weeks, teams

310
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,920
Speaker 3: in this spot must win versus teams playing for nothing

311
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 3: sixty percent against the spread or forty percent for the

312
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:45,480
Speaker 3: teams that must win, sixty percent for the teams that

313
00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:48,280
Speaker 3: are eliminated. This is the NFL. And like, the one

314
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,560
Speaker 3: thing I will mention is that there's there's this added

315
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 3: complexity of like the tank now and we'll get to

316
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 3: that on certain teams like the Eagles last year. I

317
00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,400
Speaker 3: think the Browns might be taking we'll talk about that.

318
00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:01,080
Speaker 3: I don't see it with the Jags as like an

319
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,880
Speaker 3: interim coach. You have your quarterback, you're either getting the

320
00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 3: first or second pick. You're already finishing in last place.

321
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:08,800
Speaker 3: You can ruin the cold season. So don't think this

322
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,280
Speaker 3: is a tank spot. It's still the NFL. These guys

323
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 3: are playing for contracts, the coaches are playing for positions

324
00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,120
Speaker 3: like Darrel Bubba wants to be the head coach of

325
00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,080
Speaker 3: the Jags. Everyone's still gonna try. And then what happens

326
00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:21,760
Speaker 3: is it's the last game. It's your super Bowl. Right,

327
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,160
Speaker 3: Oh wait, now we have something to play for. You know,

328
00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,000
Speaker 3: you finally can be like, all right, after your disappointing season,

329
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:28,960
Speaker 3: we can ruin the cold season and kind of make

330
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,040
Speaker 3: something of this. You also can come out and play

331
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,560
Speaker 3: a lot looser, whereas the team that needs to win

332
00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,280
Speaker 3: is oh, they're a little A lot of times they're tight,

333
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,600
Speaker 3: and we can't make a mistake. That works in your

334
00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,680
Speaker 3: favor as well. So I love teams in this spot.

335
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:46,280
Speaker 3: You also have the Jaguars coming off of an absolute

336
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:51,960
Speaker 3: embarrassing loss against the Patriots. Teams in that spot when

337
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,400
Speaker 3: they haven't covered by you know that many points or

338
00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,880
Speaker 3: more have been phenomenal against the spread historically, and last

339
00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:01,120
Speaker 3: week the Jaguars were just completely estimated on both sides

340
00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:02,920
Speaker 3: of the ball by COVID. Should have a lot of

341
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,160
Speaker 3: those guys back. You also have Carson Wentz, who still

342
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,119
Speaker 3: has some looming turnover regression, and for as bad as

343
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,639
Speaker 3: Lawrence has been, he's been pretty unlucky in that regard,

344
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,200
Speaker 3: So don't be surprised if maybe a couple of deflections

345
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 3: go the Jaguars way. But ultimately it's just the price.

346
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,240
Speaker 3: I think the line is too high. You're getting must

347
00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:25,120
Speaker 3: win inflation. I'll take over two touchdowns with the home

348
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:29,160
Speaker 3: division dog here, give me the lowly Jags.

349
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd probably join you with this. I think the

350
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 2: line's only going to go up too. I don't know

351
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,159
Speaker 2: if it's even going down, so I'm holding out. But

352
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:39,520
Speaker 2: every time the coach played the Jags, I kind of

353
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,399
Speaker 2: circle it too, because it just always seems to be

354
00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,000
Speaker 2: problematic And just like another team we'll talk about in

355
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 2: a second, in a division matchup in the same division.

356
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,080
Speaker 2: But look at that last game like forget, forget all

357
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 2: the things at stake are not at stake. And just

358
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,639
Speaker 2: look at the last time these two teams played. The

359
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,360
Speaker 2: last time these two teams played, Indy was at home

360
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,680
Speaker 2: won the game twenty three to seventeen. So it was

361
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,720
Speaker 2: a it was a struggle. You look at the underlying stats.

362
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,920
Speaker 2: The Jaguars out gained Indy three thirty one to two

363
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,160
Speaker 2: ninety five. They just happened to turn the ball over

364
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 2: that you know once and he didn't turn it over.

365
00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,479
Speaker 2: And the Jaguars actually did better than third down than

366
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,320
Speaker 2: the coach five or fifteen. The coach were four or fifteen.

367
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 2: So I mean, it's not like the Coats exact. And

368
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,359
Speaker 2: this is what Urban Meyer as the head coach of

369
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 2: the Jags. It's not exactly like the you know, the

370
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:35,479
Speaker 2: Coats have this like just great matchup here where they

371
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:37,400
Speaker 2: just are gonna run away with it. I think it's

372
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 2: a tough matchup for them either way. I think the Jags,

373
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 2: you know, they've shown it can hang in there against

374
00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 2: somebody these tougher teams, you know, the Patriots, Belichick, you

375
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 2: knew that wasn't gonna go well, that you could kind

376
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 2: of the writing was all over the wall for that.

377
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 2: I don't think Belichick's ever lost to a rookie quarterback

378
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,399
Speaker 2: in Foxborough. So so yeah, I completely agree with this

379
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 2: one as well. Probably will be joining you, But I mean,

380
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 2: do you think this gets to like seventeen or something

381
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:01,320
Speaker 2: like that.

382
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,159
Speaker 3: Sixteen and a half. I don't think it'll ever get

383
00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 3: to a flat seventeen, but it's in a dead range

384
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 3: right now, so if you're out there, you might as

385
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 3: well late.

386
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,760
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the third overall of the

387
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,960
Speaker 2: week eighteen weekend six pack, I'm going with the Houston

388
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:22,880
Speaker 2: Texans plus ten and a half against the Tennessee Titans.

389
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 2: This is a game I think that kind of fits

390
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 2: into that same motivated versus unmotivated. It's not quite you know,

391
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 2: the Titans don't need to winner to be eliminated or

392
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 2: anything like that, but clearly obviously have more motivation here

393
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,879
Speaker 2: than the Houston Texans. But remember last time these two

394
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 2: teams met, the Titans, granted they were banged up, as

395
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 2: they've been all year, but Tennessee was favored by ten

396
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 2: at home. They closed its ten point favorites. They lost

397
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,920
Speaker 2: the game by nine. This is at home to the

398
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 2: Texans now, they're favor by ten on the road. Like,

399
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 2: I don't get how we swing that many points. I know,

400
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 2: Aj and I mean being healthy. I don't know if

401
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 2: that changes anything because the guy, even when he's healthy,

402
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 2: he plays like half the game. So it's I mean,

403
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,159
Speaker 2: that's not a big deal. AJ Brown's gonna get his Like,

404
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 2: they're not gonna sugarcoat that. But still a Titans offense

405
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 2: without Derrick Henry, still a Titans offense is going to

406
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,719
Speaker 2: struggle to move the ball. I think they're gonna struggle

407
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 2: in the red zone against this Houston zone defense. They've

408
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 2: been getting lucky. They have eleven wins on a year,

409
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:30,120
Speaker 2: but their point differentials suggest they're more of a nine

410
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 2: and a half win team. So they're about to winning

411
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 2: a half over expectation in terms of overachieving. And again,

412
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 2: this is a you know, this is a tough match

413
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 2: for Tennessee. I just you know, last game of the season,

414
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 2: Tennessee here, you gotta not play sloppy, and they did

415
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,120
Speaker 2: that last week. They played a sharp game against Miami,

416
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 2: but we just saw a ton of turnovers last time

417
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 2: these two teams played. I just think that Houston is

418
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 2: gonna kind of it's always been a struggle when these

419
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 2: two teams play. I mean, so you had Houston eating

420
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 2: them twenty two thirteen uh as ten point dogs. The

421
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 2: then last season you had a Titans favor by seven

422
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 2: last game in the season against a similarly horrible Houston.

423
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,719
Speaker 3: Team, must win. I was on the Texans there, must win,

424
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 3: must win, came back and cut the field goal to

425
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 3: win at the Yeah, they could have lost.

426
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 2: The Times could easily lost. The game went thirty.

427
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 3: I think Sam Sliman, I think was the kicker of

428
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 3: that game.

429
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it was just a struggle game before that.

430
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 2: Earlier in the year. You might have also been on

431
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 2: the uh on the Texans.

432
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:37,920
Speaker 3: But plus plus four plus four overtime game and overtime six. Yeah,

433
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 3: like this has been happening for two years. This overtime,

434
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 3: this over time.

435
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is just kind of I mean, yeah, but no,

436
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 2: this matchup has also been happening for years, where it's

437
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 2: just even as bad as the Texans are to usually

438
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 2: kind of that one of the worst teams in division.

439
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 2: Of these last couple of matchups, Titans just struggled to

440
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:56,640
Speaker 2: put them away.

441
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 3: So well that's their mo though. They just play up

442
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 3: and down the team. They played down to their competition.

443
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 3: You know, it's a team that went, you know, to

444
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 3: the Jets and lost, and then you know, you go

445
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:07,919
Speaker 3: out to the Rams, and I mean you look at

446
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 3: all their results. They just got to play close games

447
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 3: against everybody.

448
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 2: Exactly especial you know. So you you were on them

449
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: against Miami last week. That was a great call. But

450
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 2: that's the whole point, you know. I think that game

451
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 2: now they feeling good about themselves. This is it's just

452
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 2: right for a Titans wet down and then for these situations.

453
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 2: Wait in the year you have a Houston team that

454
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 2: was held only seven last week against the Niners. Wait

455
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 2: in a year, you have an underdog that scored in

456
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:35,360
Speaker 2: the single digits in their last game facing a favorite.

457
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 2: As long as that favorite isn't completely terrible, they have

458
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 2: a winning percentage of thirty five or better. The underdog

459
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 2: in this spot is two nineteen one thirty five and

460
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 2: eight sixty two twenty percent ROI since two thousand and three.

461
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 2: According to our Action Labs data, Houston fits the trend

462
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 2: here too many points at home. I think it's gonna

463
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 2: be another one of these tough games for Tennessee to

464
00:22:58,760 --> 00:22:59,399
Speaker 2: close out.

465
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I completely agree. I'm on this as well. Plus

466
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 3: ten and a half would have been one of my

467
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 3: picks if you didn't take it. Davis Mills is playing

468
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 3: better in the second half of the year as well.

469
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:11,479
Speaker 3: I like some of the things that I've seen with him.

470
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 3: He also appears more comfortable at home. And this team

471
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,159
Speaker 3: is still playing hard and now can be kind of

472
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 3: their Super Bowl, right And this is a team the

473
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 3: beat that blew out the Chargers with a COVID decimated

474
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 3: roster at home a couple of weeks ago, and Titans

475
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 3: play up and down. Everyone go look at Rabel's record

476
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 3: as an underdog. He's great, He's not so great as

477
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 3: a favorite. That speaks to what this Titans team does.

478
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, home divisional dog catching double digits here. I

479
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if the Texans have a shot to

480
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 3: win this game and the AFC one seed is up

481
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 3: for grabs in the fourth quarter. Should be interesting. So

482
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 3: I completely agree there. All right. For my second pick

483
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 3: and the fourth overall the week eighteen weekend six pack,

484
00:23:55,840 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 3: I am going with the Atlanta Falcons plus four and

485
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 3: a half at BETAMGM against the New Orleans Saints. New

486
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 3: Orleans needs to win and have San Francisco lose to

487
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 3: get in. I'm just not buying this line. Again, this

488
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 3: fits the mold. This is the other game I think

489
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 3: that the Titans are. You know, they're not exactly in

490
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 3: that mold, similar to the Bills last year. By the way,

491
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 3: the Bills could have been playing for seating. It speaks

492
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 3: to this the wackedness of this final week. They decided

493
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 3: to rest a bunch of starters playing the Dolphins, who

494
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 3: needed to win to get in.

495
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 2: Remember that.

496
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 3: So this doesn't even clarify my numbers because the Bills

497
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: could have been prove their seating but they just didn't care.

498
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 3: But the Bills won fifty six to twenty six. Anyway,

499
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,719
Speaker 3: like isaamh McKenzie was there, we were throwing Isaah McKenzie.

500
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 3: They sat all their secondary guys and they still won

501
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 3: fifty six to twenty six. So yeah, I think the

502
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 3: numbers too high. Early in the season, the Saints were

503
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 3: minus six, minus six and a half at home and

504
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 3: they lost outright to the Falcons. So now you're getting

505
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 3: four and a half in Atlanta. And by the way,

506
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,360
Speaker 3: after another a big home week against the spread last year,

507
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 3: running some things and it look home field advantage is

508
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 3: right around. You know, people were like, oh it's worth

509
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 3: it's zero and zero for this year. You get small

510
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 3: sample size for one season, but it's around one and

511
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 3: a half points a little higher for you know, a

512
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 3: team like New Orleans. But now you're getting four and

513
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 3: a half and that's a big number for the Saints

514
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 3: to cover. I make this under a field goal, by

515
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 3: the way, which is why I played it. That's a

516
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 3: big number to cover and total it's forty with a

517
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 3: New Orleans offense that is just horrendous. I mean by

518
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 3: any stretch of the imagination. I mean, let's take a look.

519
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 3: They're thirty first and success rate an offense since Week eight.

520
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 3: Their rush offense for the year is twenty eighth at

521
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 3: EPA per play and success rate. You can't throw it right,

522
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 3: so you don't have to. You can just kind of

523
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 3: load the box and you don't have to respect who

524
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 3: they're throwing it to on the outside. I also think

525
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 3: I like this matchup for the Falcons because now it

526
00:25:58,040 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 3: is you want to keep an eye on Kyle Pitts,

527
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 3: which would a big Losses is already missing Calvinry that

528
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 3: he didn't practice with the hamstring injury.

529
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 2: It didn't Actually I saw him. I saw him pull

530
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 2: it live. Uh and they did. So here's here's something like,

531
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 2: I'm if you if you just want to intel, they

532
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 2: signed Parker Hesse, who's their force tight end, to the

533
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 2: active roster for this week. So that's also a bad

534
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: sign to just yeah, I saw that on the transactional wire.

535
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 2: So hopefully I do.

536
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 3: Think that if he has a chance to go, he

537
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 3: will because he needs fifty eight yards to break the

538
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 3: all time rookie Mike Dicka holds the record for all

539
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 3: time receiving yards by a tight end of the rookie season.

540
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: But regardless, yeah, propeler if he plays. But regardless, this

541
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 3: is a Saints offense that is just dreadful. And if

542
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 3: you go by some metrics like they're point differential, they've

543
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 3: been the luckiest team in the NFL. The Falcons. What

544
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 3: they've done this year is they really compeat and or

545
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 3: compete with teams that are, you know, similar to them,

546
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 3: and they just get blown out by these superior teams.

547
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 3: That's not New Orleans right now. With Taysom Hill, in

548
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 3: my opinion, Hill, for it's worth, has been one of

549
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 3: the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Let's let's take a

550
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 3: look since Week eight. Here's a list of quarterbacks that

551
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:14,360
Speaker 3: rank lower than Taysom Hill an EPA plus completion percentage

552
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 3: over expectation composite. There's thirty six quarterbacks with at least

553
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty plays since we gate. There's only

554
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 3: three that have been worse than Taysom Hill, Cam Newton,

555
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 3: Mike Glennon and Zach Wilson. That's it.

556
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 2: In The Saints have beat two of those three in

557
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks. YEP, I mean so techically,

558
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,959
Speaker 2: not Cam Newton because it was it was Scam Darnold.

559
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, and he's not much higher anyway, So

560
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 3: I'll take the you know, boat teams should get some

561
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 3: key pieces back from you know, COVID and injury, and

562
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 3: I just think that this line is too high. Falcons

563
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 3: can play the role spoiler all the pressures on the

564
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 3: Saints dreadful offense, and Matt Ryan has actually had some success. Again,

565
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 3: it's this Saints defense, particularly since Dennis Allen has arrived.

566
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 3: Since twenty fifteen when Allen got their defensive coordinator, Brian

567
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 3: has twenty six touchdowns eleven interceptions. You know, thirty eight

568
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 3: hundred passing yards and thirteen games, that comes out to

569
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 3: a per game average of two touchdowns, zero point eight picks,

570
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 3: three hundred yards passing. That's pretty much right around where

571
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 3: he is on a per game basis on all other games.

572
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 3: That's the Saints defense is better than an average defense

573
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 3: over that stretch. So you know, one of the things

574
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 3: that I liked about this matchup is one of the

575
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,679
Speaker 3: best the strongest parts of the Saints team is their

576
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 3: run defense. It's elite, like, you can't really run on

577
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 3: them at all. So when they can take that away

578
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 3: from a team that relies on that for play action

579
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 3: or just you know, getting yards on the ground, that's

580
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 3: an advantage that doesn't matter against the Falcons. The Falcons

581
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 3: are the worst rushing team in the NFL. They can't

582
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 3: get anything on the ground. They take away their run

583
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 3: game on their un taking away the Falcons run game

584
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 3: does nothing for them. So ultimately, I just think this

585
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 3: is too many points for this Saints offense on the road.

586
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 3: I think that they should be under a field goal.

587
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 3: So I will gladly take the four and a half

588
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 3: points at home with the Falcons in a game I

589
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 3: think they'll have a really good shot to win straight up.

590
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree. I don't get this line. I mean,

591
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 2: this is one of those inflated because the Saints are

592
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 2: need to win the game like this is that's all

593
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 2: it can be. Because just look at the Saints and

594
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 2: what they've been doing over these last few weeks. They

595
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 2: first they went on a five game losing streak, you

596
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 2: know when, and yeah it takes some pill missed some

597
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 2: games and they were starting simming and whatnot. But then

598
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 2: they beat the Jets thirty to nine. Okay, like that's whatever.

599
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 2: Beat the Bucks nine to nothing. You scored nine points,

600
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 2: Like you scored nine points in that game the Bucks.

601
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 2: Everyone got hurt for the Bucks. So you won a

602
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 2: game scoring nine points. He scored three against the Dolphins.

603
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 2: Then you beat the Panthers eighteen to ten, so you

604
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 2: won a game scoring eighteen points. Like the Falcons. They

605
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 2: played poorly, Like you said, against these elite teams, you

606
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 2: know they're not gonna score. But against these like mediocre teams,

607
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 2: they can get to eighteen, nineteen, twenty points. That's probably

608
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 2: gonna be enough to beat the Saints team. So especially

609
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 2: at home, it's the playoff game for them, you know. Yeah,

610
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 2: we were both on them at plus six earlier in

611
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 2: the year and they just looked dreadful.

612
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 3: They were up twenty one to nothing in that game

613
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 3: through three quarters. I had to hold on to win.

614
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think this line's went too high.

615
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 2: All right. For my third pick in the fifth overall

616
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 2: the week eighteen Weekend six pack, I'm going with the

617
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Steelers plus five and a half in Baltimore. I'm

618
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 2: gonna do this one more time with the Steelers. It's

619
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: gonna be it's not good.

620
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 3: So it's not making the playoffs. He might be doing

621
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 3: it again as a dog next week.

622
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. Oh man, Yeah, listen, man, I know,

623
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: and I'm you know, always curious to hear your thoughts

624
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,239
Speaker 2: on the Ravens. This is not about Pittsburgh as much

625
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 2: as it's about the Ravens. You know, I just don't

626
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 2: know where they're at now. They've lost five in a row,

627
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 2: a lot of close games games, but remember these.

628
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 3: Teams are play four of those five by a combined

629
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 3: five points.

630
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's not I'm not saying they.

631
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 3: Had that they had that close game aggression coming. That's

632
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 3: why I was fading. I mean early in the year

633
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 3: they were winning all these close games and they caught

634
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 3: up to them because they weren't as good as people

635
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 3: thought were early in the year when I was like, dude,

636
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 3: this team is not that good because of while their injuries.

637
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 3: They're eight and three, yes, but and now here they

638
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 3: already eight and eight.

639
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: This is about Baltimore to mean, can they win this

640
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 2: game and give themselves a chance? I know they what

641
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 2: they have like a two percent chances to go to

642
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 2: the playoffs. I guess a little higher.

643
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 3: If they win, we need the Jags. We need the

644
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 3: Jags to win, We need the Dolphins to lose. Yeah,

645
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 3: then we need the Chargers to lose. The problem is,

646
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 3: if all of those things happen, I'm pretty sure the

647
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 3: Raiders clinch, so they won't be playing for any like

648
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 3: it's it's it's bad Ken.

649
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 2: Baltimore still win this game, absolutely, but now you're talking

650
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 2: about winning it by six or more. I think they

651
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 2: can win close game because they're gonna play in a

652
00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 2: lot of close games. Every time they play, it's a

653
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: close game. They're like from last year, yeah, yeah, it

654
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 2: was a Chargers right. It's like every game is a

655
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 2: close game these days, Are you gonna win by six

656
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 2: just because they're I don't think. I don't know. I

657
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 2: don't know if they win the game. I don't know

658
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,239
Speaker 2: if they win it by six. Last time these two

659
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 2: teams played, granted it wasn't Pittsburgh, but the total yardage

660
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 2: was pretty even. Baltimore three twenty six Pittsburgh three twenty one. However,

661
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh five point six yards per play, Baltimore four point

662
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 2: seven yards per play. And that was with Lamar Jackson.

663
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 2: So now Lamar didn't practice Wednesday. As we record this,

664
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 2: you thought he would might suit up last week. He didn't.

665
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 2: You know, you would think for this kind of game

666
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 2: he would. But I don't know if that's even a positive.

667
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: I mean, it's clear, you know, hunh, we had some

668
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: regression company wasn't gonna keep putting up, you know, like

669
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 2: four total touchdowns and things like that. Lamar hadn't even done.

670
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 2: But I just think the Ravens are in a tough

671
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 2: spot here, regardless of who plays quarterback. I think you're

672
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 2: still gonna get a game out of the Steelers. Ded

673
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 2: It's gonna be ugly on offense, but it's been ugly

674
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 2: on offense all year for the Steelers team. Uh, and

675
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 2: they've continued to to kind of exceed expectations just slightly.

676
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh in these spots this year, they're six and

677
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 2: four as an underdog. They're not the same as they

678
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: used to be. We saw that in this I mean

679
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 2: that game against Cleveland that was a tough watch. I

680
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: think the two teams combineding for like under four yards

681
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 2: of past attempt But that speaks to what the Steelers

682
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: defense can do. They can just hang in the game.

683
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 2: They played a real strong game against the Ravens last time.

684
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 2: You know, even with the Ravens getting a lead early,

685
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 2: it just they just couldn't get nothing going down a stretch.

686
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 2: Everything was just a little more difficult than it seemed

687
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 2: like it was earlier in the year, going down to

688
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 2: that two point conversion at the end of the game.

689
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 2: So and then, you know, I know a stat that

690
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 2: you've talked about, a stat that I got Brandon Anderson

691
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 2: I believe posted in the app as well. Since five,

692
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 2: when either of these teams in this rivalry is favored

693
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 2: by more than a field goal, the underdog is seventeen

694
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 2: and two against the spread. You know that kind of defines.

695
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 2: This matchup got Mike Tomlin as a dog from week

696
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 2: three on forty eighteen and two sixty nine percent against

697
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: the spread.

698
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 3: The standard is the standard. That's our motto, that's our creed,

699
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 3: that's our approach time and time again.

700
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 2: I just think it's going to be an ugly game,

701
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 2: hard fought game. Both of these teams have an incentive

702
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 2: to win, regardless of, you know, whatever else is going on.

703
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 2: They know the first the only thing they really have

704
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 2: to do is win and then just pray. So I

705
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 2: think you get the best effort from both teams. And

706
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 2: I'm just not convinced that Baltimore is in a spot

707
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 2: where now they're they're you know, winning games by a

708
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 2: touchdown or more. Again, so gimme Pittsburgh plus five and

709
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 2: a half in Baltimore.

710
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind taking the points here. And but

711
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 3: since Harbaugh got there when these two teams met two

712
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 3: thousand and eight, favorites of more than a field goal

713
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 3: in this rivalry are one, fourteen and two. Again, it's

714
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 3: a spread crazy, all these games end up coming down

715
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 3: to a field goal, hard fought, They know each other well. Yeah,

716
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 3: and I just double checked that is the Ravens path

717
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,399
Speaker 3: if they get all that to happen. If they win

718
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 3: and New England wins and Jacksonville wins, the Raiders will

719
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 3: clinch and then the Ravens will need the Raiders to win,

720
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:06,919
Speaker 3: but the Raiders will probably sit everybody. It's not looking great.

721
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 3: This should be a battle. I don't mind taking the

722
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 3: points here.

723
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: You know what the Steelers could have really used though,

724
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 2: a win against the Lions.

725
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, what a what a crazy year?

726
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 2: Yeah? Who are you going for your third?

727
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 3: All right? For my third pick and the final pick

728
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 3: of the week eighteen NFL Weekend six pack, I'm going

729
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 3: with Los Angeles Chargers minus three at bet MGM against

730
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 3: the Raiders in Las Vegas. This isn't a number that

731
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 3: I think has a ton of value, but you know

732
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 3: it's at three or below seeing get blow actually money

733
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 3: line them with Buffalo in a parlay. I just love

734
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 3: this matchup, and I think that the Raiders are a fraud.

735
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 3: I mean the Raiders are six and two and one

736
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 3: possession games this year, they're three to zero and overtime.

737
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,879
Speaker 3: They got the ref game in Dallas without Lamb. Other

738
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 3: than that, since Week eight, it's a team that can

739
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,959
Speaker 3: barely get over seventeen points, and you know, you face

740
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 3: that dallaskin they didn't have CD lamb. You face Nick

741
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 3: Mullens in a completely decimated Browns roster. You barely beat them.

742
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 3: You face Drew Locke and the Broncos, you barely beat them.

743
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,959
Speaker 3: You face Carson Wentz just coming off COVID, You faced

744
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 3: Jacoby Brissett. Yeah, three of their nine three other nine

745
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 3: wins came against backups. Three of the nine wins came

746
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 3: in overtime. I mean, it's just a team that has

747
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 3: been getting extremely fortunate. Darren Waller should be back, we'll

748
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,320
Speaker 3: see how healthy is. That should help, but this offense

749
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,760
Speaker 3: is still extremely limited. But I really like the matchup

750
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 3: here for a number of reasons. So if you look

751
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 3: at and the Raiders defense has just been on a

752
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 3: downur pat, the run defense is actually playing well. Not

753
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 3: as important though against the Chargers. Their defense thirtieth in

754
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 3: EPA per dropback since we gate thirty first in success

755
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 3: rate the run dy like I said, better, but not

756
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 3: as relevant against the Chargers. Also, the Chargers' primary weakness

757
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: on defense is their rundy. Raiders can't really run it

758
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 3: the rush off. It's thirtieth in EPA. The first meeting,

759
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 3: they had eighteen carries for forty eight yards and the

760
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 3: Chargers won twenty eight to fourteen. Chargers averaged five point

761
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 3: one yards per play, the Raiders averaged three point eight

762
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 3: yards per play, and Herbert absolutely shredded. He started that

763
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:18,760
Speaker 3: game twenty of twenty five for one hundred and seventy

764
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 3: five yards and three touchdowns. Think they went up twenty

765
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 3: one to nothing. Why well, he shreds non cover two zones,

766
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 3: shreds him. I think he's number one in the NFL

767
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:30,479
Speaker 3: and QBR against zone noncover two zones, top three overall

768
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 3: and zones. But he struggles a little bit with Cover two.

769
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 3: But all the Raiders do is run Cover three. And

770
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 3: guess who's familiar with that Cover three? Justin Herbert cos

771
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:39,360
Speaker 3: Bradley was with the Chargers last year and he showed that,

772
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,720
Speaker 3: and he just shredded Cover three all year long. Teams

773
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 3: that don't lets that are playing Cover three are justin.

774
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 3: Herbert is just gonna rip him up. So I think

775
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 3: this is a great matchup for Herbert, and I think

776
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 3: that this is a good matchup for the Chargers defense.

777
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 3: And on top of that, I think this is where

778
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 3: Staley's aggressiveness will really come into play. Love him, you know,

779
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 3: making the optimal call much more than I trust the

780
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 3: Raiders to do so in this spot. And on top

781
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 3: of all that, you know, just divisional game on field

782
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 3: advantages and as much. But on top of all that,

783
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,280
Speaker 3: there is a chance, like I just mentioned, that's very small.

784
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 3: It's not not impacting my bat or anything, but there

785
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 3: is a chance that the Raiders clinched before this game happens.

786
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 3: And then this line closes at ten because car sits

787
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 3: and everyone sits, and so there is a chance that happens.

788
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 3: But ultimately, I think that the Raiders have just been

789
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 3: maybe the luckiest team in the NFL this year, and

790
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 3: this is a great matchup for Herbert and it's an

791
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 3: ideal matchup for the Chargers defense. So outside of the

792
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 3: Los Angeles here at three or below, you.

793
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 2: In these situations, because I get this question from time

794
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 2: to time, we probably both do. Where would you buy

795
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 2: up like a two and a half to minus one twenty?

796
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 3: It depends on the total a lot of times. But yeah,

797
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 3: I mean the three is king here, So I mean

798
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 3: I I money lined them, I money line parlaid them.

799
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 3: With the Bills, and I paid minus one twenty two

800
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,399
Speaker 3: money line and the Bills. Look, the Bills could lose.

801
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 3: It's still the NFL. But I felt really strong doing that.

802
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 3: But yeah, I would pay with this total, I would,

803
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 3: you know, and the people go for two, the Charters kick.

804
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 3: The situation is worse than the Raiders, so it's not

805
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 3: as important, so I would go maybe I would go

806
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 3: up to the minus one twenty here in some cases,

807
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 3: you know, if it's a lower total, you know, two

808
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 3: good kickers, whether you know, I might go up to

809
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 3: minus one twenty five, minus one thirty. There's actually a

810
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 3: chance that this maybe a greater chance of normal with

811
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 3: the way that these two teams play, that this doesn't

812
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 3: end on a three right, Like the Charters are going

813
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 3: to like go for it on a lot of four downs.

814
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 3: And if the Raiders win, the Raiders have a better

815
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 3: chance of winning by three anything. The Raiders have a

816
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 3: really good kicker and they were more inclined to kick.

817
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: So Chargers by three on the spectrum of outcomes is

818
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 3: probably less likelier than a normal favorite with this total

819
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 3: in this spot, given the profile of the Chargers, So

820
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 3: uh outside with the minus three here, But yeah, with

821
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 3: minus one tent or throw them the money on parlay

822
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 3: as I did with the Bills.

823
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 2: I mean, honestly, I don't just mind up on the

824
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 2: money line period. You know, it's not yeah, you're not

825
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 2: paying a time. But I agree, I actually make this

826
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:34,399
Speaker 2: line right around you know, two and a half three

827
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 2: without adjusting for the matchup advantage. But I really like

828
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 2: the Chargers in the spot. I think this is kind

829
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 2: of a put up or shut up for Christaley. You know,

830
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 2: we're gonna be aggressive all year long, this and that,

831
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 2: but they've lost some games that they shouldn't have lost

832
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 2: and it's been ugly and they're they're here in this

833
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 2: last game of the season, still needing to cleanse the Raiders.

834
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 2: Every year we see it, they tend to fall apart.

835
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 2: You know, wait in a year and they tend to

836
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 2: will Now.

837
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 3: I like that winning before they got the play, you know,

838
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 3: they got to play all the backups and then yeh,

839
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 3: an impressive effort against the Colts. Kind of like as

840
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 3: the coach.

841
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 2: So you know, not not knocking them for that. I

842
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 2: respect for doing that. But you mentioned I think something

843
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 2: was interesting that you mentioned was that, you know, the

844
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 2: Raiders run defense has been kind of going south, but

845
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 2: you don't really worry.

846
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 3: About their past defense run defense. Their run defense has

847
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 3: been good.

848
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, because it's interesting because the Chargers thirty four for

849
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 2: one to sixty eight in a touch. They ran really

850
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 2: well against the Raiders in that first matchup. So I mean,

851
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:34,839
Speaker 2: it's not a gimme that they'll be able to stop

852
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 2: the Charge. I mean, Austin Ecker had like a career.

853
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 2: They had a fifteen carry one to seventeen.

854
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: Uh.

855
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 2: I just think we remember Roundtree breaking a couple of tackles,

856
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 2: you know, running hard like it wasn't It was just

857
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,919
Speaker 2: the Chargers out physical the Raiders in that first game,

858
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 2: you know, So you know, take that for what it is.

859
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think I think it's a good match.

860
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm saying even if the Raiders run defense like plays, well,

861
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,879
Speaker 3: it's that that's not going to make or break this game.

862
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 3: But yeah, I could see the Charges have a success

863
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 3: for sure.

864
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 2: That is going to wrap it. For our week eighteen

865
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 2: weekend six pack to recap, Stuck is going with the

866
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 2: Jags plus fifteen and a half, the Falcons plus four

867
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,879
Speaker 2: and a half, and the Chargers minus three. I'm going

868
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 2: with the Niners plus four and a half, the Texans

869
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 2: plus ten and a half, and the Steelers plus five

870
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 2: and a half. And that is going to conclude our

871
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 2: Week eighteen. Weekends six pack presented by the Athletic Brewing Company,

872
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 2: whose innovative process allows them to brew great tasting craft

873
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 2: beer without the alcohol. From IPA's to stouts, to Golden

874
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,240
Speaker 2: Nails and more. They offer a full selection of craft

875
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 2: brewis starting at only fifty calories. With two custom breweries

876
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 2: in Connecticut and California. They've created a lineup of styles

877
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 2: loaded with accolades, including the twenty twenty World Beer Award

878
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 2: Gold medal for their flagship IPA Run Wild with full flavor,

879
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:02,240
Speaker 2: low calories, and no chance of a hangover. Athletics Bruise

880
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 2: let you enjoy the refreshing taste of beer anytime and

881
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,839
Speaker 2: anywhere place in Order today at Athletic Brewing dot com

882
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:10,480
Speaker 2: and get free shipping when you order two or more

883
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 2: six packs and enjoy ten percent off your order with

884
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 2: Chromo code Action ten. That's act Iowan one zero cheers.

885
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into our Week eighteen. Coach pep talk.

886
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 2: You keep playing the way you're playing, We're gonna get

887
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 2: an ass feet again to night. This week's coaches pep

888
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 2: talk comes to us from the nineteen fifty five film Marty,

889
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 2: and let's dedicate it to the Charges and Raiders, Rich Wassachia, Brandon, Stay.

890
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 2: Both of these guys, I think a lot to prove

891
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 2: on this last day of the season. Win here. We'll

892
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 2: go a long way for each of those franchises. So

893
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 2: I was dedicated to Masachia and Stay.

894
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:49,879
Speaker 3: Sooner or later, there comes a point in the man's

895
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 3: life when he's got to face some fights. I must

896
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 3: stay home tonight. I got hurt enough. I don't want

897
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 3: to get hurt no more.

898
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 4: I got feelings. You know, I had enough pain.

899
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 3: I don't want you hanging around the house tonight.

900
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 2: What do youn't on for me?

901
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 3: I'm miserable enough as it is, Alright, so I'll go

902
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:06,280
Speaker 3: and you know what I'm gonna do for my trouble, hotache,

903
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 3: A big night of hetache.

904
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 2: All right. Time for our favorite total of the week. Fuck,

905
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 2: it's early January. Got some weather going on, got some

906
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 2: resting going on, a lot of uncertainty here early in

907
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 2: the week. But what total stands out to you that

908
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 2: you're going with? Three K team.

909
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:32,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go super low. Let's go Cleveland Cincinnati under

910
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 3: thirty eight at bet MGM. I played some. If you

911
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 3: saw nap, I played some under forty one and a

912
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 3: half early this morning, taking the barrow. Probably wouldn't go

913
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 3: if the Chiefs win there, and he might just sit anyway.

914
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 3: And then then I ended up being announced that it

915
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 3: came down, and then you know, mix it goes on

916
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 3: the COVID list. I like this down. I make this

917
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 3: adjusted for the weather, which is gonna be insane. There's

918
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:58,879
Speaker 3: gonna be twenty to thirty mine hour wins with forty

919
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 3: mine hour wind. Gust as change, but it's going to

920
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 3: be extremely windy. And these Cleveland games, when they're extremely windy,

921
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 3: they all end the same way. I mean, we just

922
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 3: talk about the Raiders. The Raiders. Browns had a crazy

923
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 3: one last year. The Raiders won sixteen to six. Josh

924
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 3: Jacobs ran at thirty two times, like looks like a

925
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 3: nineties game and you just can't throw it. And there

926
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,879
Speaker 3: are so many pats in this game. And I think

927
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 3: the Browns are actively tanking based on that game on Monday,

928
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 3: like they weren't playing Chubb, they weren't trying to run

929
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 3: the ball. At the end of the game, they sneak

930
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:30,399
Speaker 3: it on third and one, like when the clock's running down,

931
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 3: then they call time out instead of spiking it. Just

932
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 3: their play calling, their body language, who they sat. I

933
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 3: think they're actively tanking, which is smart because you get

934
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 3: a better draft pick. They could approve five more spots

935
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 3: with the loss year depending on how other things happen.

936
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 3: But more importantly them er the Ravens are going to

937
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 3: finish in last place in the NFC North, and whoever

938
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 3: finishes in the last place the Nasty North huge advantage

939
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 3: next year. I mean, you're talking the difference between you know,

940
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 3: you get to play the Jags, you get to play

941
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 3: the Giants instead of Washington, Right, So the divisions that

942
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:02,760
Speaker 3: the that the AFC North plays, it's a big difference

943
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 3: between playing the third and the fourth team. Obviously it's

944
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 3: hard to protect draft positioning too. I think the Browns

945
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:11,439
Speaker 3: are actually tanking. Baker Bayfield's not playing. The only guys

946
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:13,360
Speaker 3: I think are confident that are playing are like Garrett

947
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:15,360
Speaker 3: Clowney has like all kinds of sack incentive, so I

948
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 3: think co play. But you're just talking about backup quarterbacks

949
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 3: Burrow's not playing. I doubt some of his receivers play

950
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 3: it just to be a backup quarterback handing it off.

951
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 3: The Bengals just want to get the hell out of

952
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 3: here healthy. They're both slow teams in general already bottom

953
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 3: ten and neutral situation pace, and I don't think the

954
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:37,359
Speaker 3: Browns care. The Bengals defense might play and they got

955
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 3: embarrassed the first time to play the Browns. Maybe that's

956
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:41,879
Speaker 3: like the unit that's motivated. I don't I doubt Chubb

957
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 3: plays much this game in twenty to thirty mile an

958
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 3: hour wins. It's an NFL game. Anything can happen. I

959
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 3: wouldn't be shot in this game, is like three to

960
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 3: three in the second in the fourth quarter.

961
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 2: What do you think of the Bengals plus six and

962
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 2: this guy? I completely agree with the total, by the way,

963
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 2: but Bengals plus six. You mentioned that the Browns might

964
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 2: be tanking. Is that something you'd be interest or I don't.

965
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 3: Know who's all gonna sit for since he is the problem? Yeah,

966
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:06,800
Speaker 3: I mean I would lean that way, especially like with

967
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 3: the total that I make, Like thirty four six points

968
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,440
Speaker 3: is very valuable in a game like this. I just

969
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 3: would rather not get involved with the side. But yeah,

970
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 3: if it got the seven, I think you have to

971
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:18,800
Speaker 3: take and I could go. I mean the stats wins

972
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 3: over twenty miles an hour Historically unders have been extremely good,

973
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 3: and that's against the clothes. These things always plumbing. I

974
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 3: think this thing is only going to go further south

975
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 3: in the market. I think this is gonna be a

976
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:29,479
Speaker 3: plump fest.

977
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:30,319
Speaker 1: Uh.

978
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:33,439
Speaker 2: For my total, I'm going with probably the second most

979
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 2: windy game on the slate Bills Jets under forty one

980
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 2: and a half. You know, expecting fifteen to twenty mile

981
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:42,360
Speaker 2: an hour wins year possible rain, tough for the offenses.

982
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:45,399
Speaker 2: You know, remember this Bill's offense, Brandon, they were playing

983
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 2: a Belichick defense. But remember in the wind, you know,

984
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 2: Josh how it just it just wasn't there. His in

985
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 2: terms of adjusted completion rate, which is pretty much you know,

986
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 2: how many balls are you placing on target when you

987
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 2: take out drops and whatnot. Allen's twenty first in the

988
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 2: league and Wilson's thirty fifth, So you added with a

989
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 2: win who had inclement weather. I just don't know how

990
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 2: functional the passing games are here. The Bills, I've really

991
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 2: liked what they've gotten out of singletary lately. I think

992
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 2: they keep it on the ground. You know, the this

993
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 2: is going to be a game where they kind of

994
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 2: just want to get out of here. I don't think

995
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:19,839
Speaker 2: it's going to be quite similar to the Miami game,

996
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,280
Speaker 2: where you know, they wouldn't have a chance to eliminate

997
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,719
Speaker 2: Miami would win last year. So this one, you know,

998
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:27,840
Speaker 2: Therery beat the Jets. The Jets aren't playing for anything.

999
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:32,439
Speaker 2: Light season divisional unders when the totals above thirty nine

1000
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 2: hit on a fifty eight percent equip since two thousand

1001
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 2: and three according to our Action Lab data. So yeah,

1002
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 2: just taking a gamble here on the on the weather

1003
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:44,839
Speaker 2: kind of slowing down this explosive Bills offense. Good.

1004
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't I don't mind that under it all.

1005
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 3: I mean, and plus you have to you have to

1006
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 3: look at the I was gonna look at the Jets here.

1007
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 3: It's a lot of points, a lot of points of

1008
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,720
Speaker 3: the total really low with bad weather. But the Bills

1009
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 3: they just love to blow out. They keep you know,

1010
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 3: they pass a lot, they keep their foot on the gas.

1011
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 3: They like find ways a lot of times to cover

1012
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 3: these bigger numbers. And then the Jets, I mean, you

1013
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:13,760
Speaker 3: look It's like Michael Carter's banged up. Crowder and Barrios didn't.

1014
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 2: Crowd More's probably still out. I mean, I don't know

1015
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 2: he could come back.

1016
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, more So, then the left tackle situation is back in.

1017
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 3: Is on ir fan his backups now on ir Adoga,

1018
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 3: their backup is now out. You're talking about a practice

1019
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,759
Speaker 3: squad guy starting at left tackle. They got injuries all

1020
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 3: over their offensive line, so they could easily get shut

1021
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 3: out here. So I don't mind the under it all,

1022
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 3: especially when you add in the weather factor.

1023
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:46,560
Speaker 2: So for our totals, Stuck is doing with Cleveland since

1024
00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 2: he under thirty eight, I'm going Jets Buffalo under forty

1025
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 2: one and a half. That's gonna rap it for our

1026
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:54,759
Speaker 2: favorite totals of the week. Now let's get into our

1027
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 2: favorite season.

1028
00:49:56,719 --> 00:50:00,439
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1029
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 2: Don't tease me to please those unfamiliar with teasers. It's

1030
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 2: when you parlay two or more bets, you get an

1031
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 2: additional six points toward the spread of each bet. So

1032
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 2: the standard is usually a six point teaser with two teams.

1033
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 2: That's what we do here on the pod. Stuck. He

1034
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 2: has a lot of excellent content out you could search

1035
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:29,560
Speaker 2: on Google for stucky teasers. You can look it up

1036
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:33,400
Speaker 2: on Action network dot com. But essentially there are a

1037
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 2: bunch of different key numbers, you know, three to four,

1038
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:38,120
Speaker 2: the six, uh, the seven that you want to tease through,

1039
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 2: you know, usually looking for numbers in that range. So

1040
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 2: that's kind of the theme here, Stuck where you're going

1041
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:47,800
Speaker 2: with your teaser for Week eighteen.

1042
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 3: First, we're gonna tease Dallas down to one with New

1043
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 3: England down to minus a half. I think that New England,

1044
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 3: you know, it's it's a little played it at a

1045
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 3: number here, but I like the match up. This Dolphins

1046
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 3: offense is just a mess. They're a complete fraud. The

1047
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 3: winning streak was a fraud. The Patriots should win this game.

1048
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:10,360
Speaker 3: They should be able to run Miami. They should be

1049
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 3: able to get a ton of pressure. Miami can't run

1050
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 3: the ball. Two is lost and this is just again.

1051
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 3: I think the Patriots win and then the Cowboys. I

1052
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 3: think the Cowboys are cheap right now, considering that they're

1053
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 3: apparently going to play all their starters. Michaelccarthy has come

1054
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:30,360
Speaker 3: out and said he's playing to win, and I believe

1055
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 3: him because he still gets roasted for twenty eleven with

1056
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:37,359
Speaker 3: in Green Bay. He didn't play his starters the last week,

1057
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,800
Speaker 3: and Packers fans are still mad that that happened and

1058
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 3: they had to buy. And then Eli came in and

1059
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 3: beat the fifteen to one Packers, so he said he's

1060
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:47,800
Speaker 3: gonna play all the stars and play to win. The

1061
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 3: Eagles apparently weren't on the street. I don't know if

1062
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 3: the help public says are gonna sit everybody. And they

1063
00:51:55,160 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 3: have COVID. I mean, they have twelve players on the

1064
00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:00,239
Speaker 3: COVID that are either starters or major contributors that are

1065
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 3: on the COVID list, So you know, they can go

1066
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:04,839
Speaker 3: from like the seventh seed to the sixth seed if

1067
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 3: the Saints get in, but they got nothing really to

1068
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 3: play for. The Cowboys can improve their seating, but they're

1069
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 3: like ninety percent to be on the four sea. But

1070
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 3: they want to play. They lost last week. I think

1071
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 3: they want to get their offense going. And I just

1072
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 3: don't think that the Eagles are gonna plan with the

1073
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 3: Eagles backups versus the Cowboys starters. From this part, Michael

1074
00:52:21,239 --> 00:52:23,879
Speaker 3: Parsons did go on the COVID list, which is something

1075
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:26,400
Speaker 3: worth eating. I mean, he's been spectacular. I also think

1076
00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 3: the Eagles are pretty overrated. I mean, here's here's the

1077
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 3: quarterbacks that they've beat this year. Sam Donald, Jared Goff,

1078
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:41,920
Speaker 3: Teddy Bridgewater, Trevor Simeon, Zach Wilson, Garrett Gilbert, Mike Glennon,

1079
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 3: Taylor Heineke, and Matt Ryan. And who they lost to

1080
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:50,400
Speaker 3: Jimmy g Dak Prescott, Mahomes, Brady Carr, Herbert, Daniel Jones.

1081
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 3: One of those doesn't belong to that group. But so yeah,

1082
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:57,800
Speaker 3: they've beat up on a bunch of bad quarterbacks, so

1083
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:02,279
Speaker 3: you know, has been off for what it's worth. And

1084
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 3: but it's just this is starters versus backups. So I'll

1085
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:07,480
Speaker 3: tease the Cowboys down.

1086
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:10,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that one as well. I'm home with

1087
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 2: the Patriots here as well. Six and a half to

1088
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 2: a half point a little bit of a revenge game

1089
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:17,480
Speaker 2: for them. They should have beat Miami in Week one

1090
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:21,560
Speaker 2: Damien Harris fumbles, But I agree, I think Miami just

1091
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 2: they're playing really well on defense. But it's been a

1092
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:28,399
Speaker 2: lot of scheme. Bill Belichick, who does he know better

1093
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 2: than almost any other head coach in the league. Brian

1094
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:33,440
Speaker 2: Flores used to work for him, So you know, I

1095
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 2: don't think they're gonna have that same advantage. I think

1096
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 2: the Patriots will be well prepared here. Now, weird things

1097
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 2: always happen when the Patriots go to Miami late in

1098
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:43,000
Speaker 2: the year, So I mean, but that's why you're teasing

1099
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:44,920
Speaker 2: it down to a half a point. I think the

1100
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 2: Patriots are the better team. I think they'll be well

1101
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 2: prepared for Miami. And I don't know, I Miami can

1102
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 2: get offense like you mentioned, and then I like Dallas,

1103
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 2: Mike might do include them and some teasers as well.

1104
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 2: But for this contest, for the show, I will go

1105
00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:03,800
Speaker 2: w Washington from seven to one against the Giants. And

1106
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:07,080
Speaker 2: what really does it for me? I mean, first of all,

1107
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:08,919
Speaker 2: we could just look at the Giants. They've scored forty

1108
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 2: nine points aka under ten a game in their last

1109
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 2: five games. They haven't been able to move the football.

1110
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 2: They had twenty four yards passing last week. And the

1111
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:18,919
Speaker 2: quarter that quarterback is out and a quarterback they didn't

1112
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 2: want to play for that quarterback is now starting. So

1113
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:25,160
Speaker 2: this Giants offense, I mean, they're just gonna run it

1114
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 2: every play. It seems like Washington's strength is its run defense.

1115
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:31,320
Speaker 2: Washington number ten DVOA against the run according to Football

1116
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 2: Outsiders twenty eighth against the pass, so eighteen spots better.

1117
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 2: A top ten defense is Washington against the run. So

1118
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,719
Speaker 2: you know that's the Giants game plan. I don't think

1119
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 2: it's gonna work. Then. What really doesn't for me, though,

1120
00:54:45,600 --> 00:54:48,840
Speaker 2: is Joe Judge, you know, try and I don't know

1121
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:49,840
Speaker 2: what he was trying.

1122
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 3: To do, what's going on with him?

1123
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:54,839
Speaker 2: Fire up his guys. I mean, I have no idea

1124
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 2: this this is and this is like it's just kind

1125
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 2: of an overshadow by all the other silliness that's been happening,

1126
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:04,239
Speaker 2: like you know, Antonio Brown wilding out, and you know,

1127
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 2: was Aaron's trying to make him play hurt? And was

1128
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 2: Jaylen Ramsey smacking his own teammates and it's like everything.

1129
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:11,400
Speaker 2: But you know, so Washington has a fight on the

1130
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 2: sideline and Joe Judge calls that out and says, you know,

1131
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 2: first of all, defending his own organization. I guess Washington

1132
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 2: was on his mind because they're gonna play him next week.

1133
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 2: But it's like, yeah, we're not. We're not just a

1134
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 2: clown show organization that has guys fighting on the sidelines.

1135
00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:28,880
Speaker 2: So you're gonna fire up the Washington defense specifically a

1136
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 2: defense that has been struggling against the pass. They were mad,

1137
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:35,520
Speaker 2: they were fighting because they were getting kicked in the ass.

1138
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:38,880
Speaker 2: You know by the Cowboys passing game, you're gonna fire

1139
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 2: them up, give them bulletin boar material when you pass

1140
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 2: for twenty four fucking yards last week. That's what you're

1141
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:50,359
Speaker 2: gonna do. Washington is gonna go so hard in this game.

1142
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 2: Is not gonna be funny. Uh So, it's gonna be

1143
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 2: ugly for the Giants. You know, seven is probably still

1144
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:58,680
Speaker 2: too much to weigh on the road Washington in this

1145
00:55:58,800 --> 00:56:01,320
Speaker 2: kind of game, divisional game, but teas them down to

1146
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:04,840
Speaker 2: a point and enjoy Washington coming out just and just

1147
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:08,440
Speaker 2: completely teeing off on his Giants pass game. I mean,

1148
00:56:08,640 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 2: it's it's not gonna be pretty.

1149
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, Glennon's out and you get from starting he's not

1150
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 3: an NFL color quarterback. But I like, I want to

1151
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:24,440
Speaker 3: take the Giants here because like just from this is

1152
00:56:24,680 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 3: it's just the bottom of the market, right Like I

1153
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 3: want to buy them as this is as low, but

1154
00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 3: I don't know where their bottom is, right Like, every

1155
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:35,240
Speaker 3: time I think they're at their bottom with their quarterback situation,

1156
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:38,800
Speaker 3: it gets worse. Like I thought about playing them, but

1157
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 3: almost buying them the seven against the Bears, like the

1158
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 3: Bears are laying seven. I didn't, and I was so grateful.

1159
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:48,839
Speaker 3: After I watched the first four plays of the game,

1160
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:54,759
Speaker 3: I was like, this is this is bad. So, yeah,

1161
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 3: it's not not good in uh New York. I wonder

1162
00:56:58,040 --> 00:56:59,360
Speaker 3: what kind of crowd ay even gonna get for this

1163
00:56:59,600 --> 00:56:59,960
Speaker 3: at home?

1164
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,759
Speaker 2: They're at home. Remember, they tend to you know, cover

1165
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 2: the spread in these like road games.

1166
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:05,960
Speaker 3: Where you have no faith in them that they're not

1167
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:06,360
Speaker 3: even doing that.

1168
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:08,520
Speaker 2: Now they're not doing that anymore. But but this is

1169
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,000
Speaker 2: this is just the perfect spot. Like I agree, like

1170
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 2: normal weeks, if it wasn't Week seventeen, if Joe Judges

1171
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 2: kept his mouth shut, you know, maybe you say, Okay,

1172
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 2: this line is just too high. But again that's why

1173
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 2: we're teasing it anyway. But yeah, it's I can't I

1174
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 2: just can't believe Joe Judge would do that. That's just

1175
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 2: that that's what kind of separates these guys, you know,

1176
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 2: from It's like these Belichick disciples from Belichick. Like Belichick's

1177
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:30,040
Speaker 2: like he has like three rules and one of them

1178
00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 2: is don't give the other team bulletin war material like

1179
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:34,040
Speaker 2: it just makes those sense.

1180
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:38,240
Speaker 3: Well, raining, raining, and thirty five degrees, Like, how many

1181
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 3: people are gonna be up this game? Fifty?

1182
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, all Washington fans because I mean they can't they

1183
00:57:43,320 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 2: can't sit in their own stadium, So it's just, you know,

1184
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 2: gotta go to gotta go to metal WANs for a

1185
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 2: better fan experience. How crazy is that sound? All right? Uh,

1186
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 2: that's gonna wrap it up for our teasers. Stuck is

1187
00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 2: going Dallas seven to one, in New England six and

1188
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:01,800
Speaker 2: a half to a half point. I'm going to Washington

1189
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:03,960
Speaker 2: seven to one and New England six and a half

1190
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 2: to a half point. Now it's time for our money

1191
00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 2: line underdog parlay.

1192
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:15,720
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1193
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:17,200
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1194
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 2: All right, we keep having these near misses man a

1195
00:58:21,120 --> 00:58:24,200
Speaker 2: week after week, but still doing pretty good in terms

1196
00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 2: of that. We've hitting one, you know for the year.

1197
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 2: So people just kind of following the picks in general

1198
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 2: should be up regardless, but hopefully you've hit a couple

1199
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:34,400
Speaker 2: of the parlays. We got a juicy one.

1200
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:36,959
Speaker 3: We're still we're still up over We're still up overall.

1201
00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 2: For we got a juicy one as me too, So

1202
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 2: where are you going?

1203
00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:41,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been a profitable year for him and it

1204
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 3: could have been really special for a couple of bounces

1205
00:58:44,640 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 3: went the other way. Books that it works when you're

1206
00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:51,920
Speaker 3: trying to hit these dogs sometimes. This week, I'm going

1207
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 3: against the Chiefs again. I'm gonna go with the Denver Broncos.

1208
00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 3: And I don't love this and like it's the second

1209
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:01,200
Speaker 3: like it is certaining a Kareem Jackson just went on

1210
00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:04,280
Speaker 3: ir Drew Lock, who's gonna start? But I think the

1211
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 3: line is just crazy. So there's value in the raw

1212
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:11,120
Speaker 3: number for a home divisional team in altitude Chiefs playing

1213
00:59:11,120 --> 00:59:15,440
Speaker 3: their second road game on a short week, and I

1214
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 3: know the Chiefs. We saw their defense for what it was.

1215
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 3: I talked about, Oh, their defense is back, like all

1216
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 3: they've been doing is playing bad offense. Is the run

1217
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:26,640
Speaker 3: defense is still poor. They were just getting lucky on

1218
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 3: points for opportunity and then they got unlucky. They had

1219
00:59:28,680 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 3: some regression coming like with penalties, and that's some these

1220
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 3: things work in the NFL. So you know, can Drew

1221
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:36,680
Speaker 3: Drew Lock looked a little better last week, but I

1222
00:59:36,760 --> 00:59:39,400
Speaker 3: think that the Broncos can run the ball all day

1223
00:59:39,480 --> 00:59:40,920
Speaker 3: on the Chiefs. They did it up and down the

1224
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:44,440
Speaker 3: field when they played Kansas City. And I know the

1225
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:47,920
Speaker 3: Chiefs are playing for like if we win and the

1226
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:50,440
Speaker 3: Titans lose to the Texans, then we can get the

1227
00:59:50,520 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 3: one seed. But like there's a chance that they come

1228
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 3: out a little flat here. Like it's like we're playing Denver.

1229
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:58,040
Speaker 3: We know we're probably not going to get the one seed.

1230
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:04,480
Speaker 3: But ultimately, like the Broncos were open ten point underdogs

1231
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:05,919
Speaker 3: and I was on them and they should have covered.

1232
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:09,720
Speaker 3: They didn't. In aarra at in primetime, got a bet

1233
01:00:09,800 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 3: down to eight before a kick and they had four

1234
01:00:12,640 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 3: hundred yards of offense and we're moving up and down

1235
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:16,200
Speaker 3: the field and just kept turning it over on downs

1236
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 3: inside the ten and then had some turnovers and then

1237
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:21,800
Speaker 3: couldn't score late. But they moved the ball all day.

1238
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:26,320
Speaker 3: They weren't closed eight. Now you're short week. Second road

1239
01:00:26,360 --> 01:00:29,880
Speaker 3: game in Denver, you drew lock, which had the count

1240
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 3: for there's a drop off between Fredgewater and Duty. No,

1241
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 3: you're getting ten and a half over threw a key

1242
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:37,120
Speaker 3: number and two and a half points more. I think

1243
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:40,360
Speaker 3: this line is too high. There's some you know, I

1244
01:00:40,440 --> 01:00:42,960
Speaker 3: think Denver is getting Denver should get a lot of

1245
01:00:43,000 --> 01:00:46,400
Speaker 3: guys back from COVID that they're missing last week. One

1246
01:00:46,440 --> 01:00:49,440
Speaker 3: of the reasons why they're that line just skyrocketed. They

1247
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:53,760
Speaker 3: didn't have a lot of players available. The secondary worries me,

1248
01:00:53,880 --> 01:00:57,480
Speaker 3: especially if certain can't go. But I think the line

1249
01:00:57,560 --> 01:00:59,280
Speaker 3: is too hot. There's just value in this number and

1250
01:01:00,320 --> 01:01:02,439
Speaker 3: this span of outcomes in the weirdness of the final

1251
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 3: week of the regular season. This now becomes Denver's Super Bowl.

1252
01:01:06,600 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 3: So let's go with the Denver Broncos plus three forty

1253
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:13,480
Speaker 3: at bet MGM, playing a team that they have lost

1254
01:01:14,040 --> 01:01:19,080
Speaker 3: twelve straight too. Nobody beats the Denver Broncos thirteen times

1255
01:01:19,120 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 3: in a row.

1256
01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:22,200
Speaker 2: I mean, I really wish it was Bridgewater. It would

1257
01:01:22,200 --> 01:01:24,280
Speaker 2: have been It's a little easier to stop. But it

1258
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:26,280
Speaker 2: is one of those last games of the year type

1259
01:01:26,520 --> 01:01:31,400
Speaker 2: weirdness that could happen. How parlay that with the Atlanta

1260
01:01:31,440 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 2: Falcons plus one sixty five at bet MGM. We already

1261
01:01:33,920 --> 01:01:36,400
Speaker 2: talked about it. I just think the number is way

1262
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 2: too high for a Saints team that is pretty much

1263
01:01:39,560 --> 01:01:42,080
Speaker 2: their offense is Alvin Kamara, and he's great, but we

1264
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:45,160
Speaker 2: know running just simply doesn't impact the outcome of games

1265
01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:48,000
Speaker 2: as much as throwing the ball does. And I think

1266
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:50,479
Speaker 2: Atlanta has the edge in that category. Even if pitt sits,

1267
01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:52,040
Speaker 2: I think it wants the edge. I mean, you're talking

1268
01:01:52,040 --> 01:01:55,000
Speaker 2: about Seeson Hill versus Matt Ryan here, so I think

1269
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:57,040
Speaker 2: you get the best effort from the Falcons. So I'm

1270
01:01:57,080 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 2: going ato plus one sixty five hay out when this

1271
01:02:01,560 --> 01:02:05,600
Speaker 2: parlay just about eleven to one year, So one hundred

1272
01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:09,280
Speaker 2: dollars bet gets you back aleven sixty six, so ten

1273
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:14,160
Speaker 2: sixty six in profit. Really great payout on this Parlayjuic

1274
01:02:14,240 --> 01:02:17,560
Speaker 2: the odds for each of them individually as well, So

1275
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:18,120
Speaker 2: let's do this.

1276
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:24,920
Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by BETMGM, and

1277
01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 4: to celebrate the twenty twenty one NFL season, bet MGM

1278
01:02:28,520 --> 01:02:31,040
Speaker 4: is offering a great sign up offer for our listeners,

1279
01:02:31,520 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 4: a one thousand dollars risk free first bet. You just

1280
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:37,960
Speaker 4: open an account at bet mgm and make your first deposit,

1281
01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:41,480
Speaker 4: then make your first bet. If that bet wins, the

1282
01:02:41,640 --> 01:02:44,800
Speaker 4: money is yours, and if your bet doesn't win, bet

1283
01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 4: MGM will refund you in free bets up to one

1284
01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:49,120
Speaker 4: thousand dollars.

1285
01:02:49,320 --> 01:02:50,120
Speaker 3: It's that simple.

1286
01:02:50,560 --> 01:02:52,720
Speaker 4: To get started, Just click on the link in this

1287
01:02:52,880 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 4: episode description. BETMGM has been a great podcast partner and

1288
01:02:56,640 --> 01:02:59,600
Speaker 4: they've got all the best features for NFL betting like

1289
01:02:59,760 --> 01:03:04,320
Speaker 4: live betting and daily ons prousts. Plus, betmgm is compatible

1290
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:07,200
Speaker 4: with our betsink technology, so when you place a wager

1291
01:03:07,240 --> 01:03:10,760
Speaker 4: at betmgm, that bet can automatically be tracked in your

1292
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:13,280
Speaker 4: action now. So open an account today and make your

1293
01:03:13,320 --> 01:03:16,520
Speaker 4: first bet risk free up to one thousand dollars. Just

1294
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:19,360
Speaker 4: click on the link in this episode description to get started.

1295
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:22,520
Speaker 4: Most be twenty one year older and physically located in Michigan,

1296
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:26,600
Speaker 4: New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada,

1297
01:03:26,720 --> 01:03:30,360
Speaker 4: or Pennsylvania. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem call one eight

1298
01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 4: hundred five two to two forty seven hundred in Colorado

1299
01:03:33,200 --> 01:03:35,960
Speaker 4: and Nevada. One eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania

1300
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:38,920
Speaker 4: and West Virginia. One eight hundred nine with it in Indiana.

1301
01:03:39,040 --> 01:03:41,720
Speaker 4: One eight hundred two seven zero seven one one seven

1302
01:03:41,760 --> 01:03:44,320
Speaker 4: in Michigan. One eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven

1303
01:03:44,360 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 4: eight nine in Tennessee. One eight hundred bets off in

1304
01:03:46,600 --> 01:03:48,920
Speaker 4: Iowa or one eight eight eight five three to two

1305
01:03:49,000 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 4: thirty five hundred in Virginia Betsinc. Not available in Nevada.

1306
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 4: Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

1307
01:03:56,680 --> 01:03:58,640
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into the best of the rest,

1308
01:03:58,680 --> 01:04:01,120
Speaker 2: which are the games we did not discussed in any

1309
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:06,320
Speaker 2: other segment, Thuck, We are going to start in ford Field,

1310
01:04:07,240 --> 01:04:12,320
Speaker 2: got the Packers, got the Lions. The spread is plus

1311
01:04:12,480 --> 01:04:15,640
Speaker 2: four for the home dog Detroit totals forty four and

1312
01:04:15,680 --> 01:04:19,640
Speaker 2: a half. This is interesting because you know, green Bay

1313
01:04:19,720 --> 01:04:21,760
Speaker 2: is a public Darwin. They usually get a lot of money,

1314
01:04:22,000 --> 01:04:23,720
Speaker 2: definitely a lot of bets. They're still getting the best

1315
01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:26,520
Speaker 2: sixty seven percent of the bets we've trapped on green Bay,

1316
01:04:28,080 --> 01:04:30,640
Speaker 2: you know in our Action Network app, but eighty four

1317
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 2: percent of the money on the Lions. The Packers are

1318
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 2: saying they're not going to rescuy the entire game, but

1319
01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:39,000
Speaker 2: from the money, it seems like some people, some smart

1320
01:04:39,000 --> 01:04:39,720
Speaker 2: people think they are.

1321
01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 3: Well, this line has gone all over place. I mean,

1322
01:04:43,040 --> 01:04:46,240
Speaker 3: Detroit at one time was favored. Then I think they're

1323
01:04:46,320 --> 01:04:50,960
Speaker 3: favored by like two, and then the Packers came out.

1324
01:04:51,040 --> 01:04:54,120
Speaker 3: La Flora has come out and he said, look, everyone

1325
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:56,240
Speaker 3: wants to play and he recently just came out within

1326
01:04:56,320 --> 01:04:58,080
Speaker 3: the last couple of hours and said, we've done studies,

1327
01:04:58,680 --> 01:05:02,360
Speaker 3: and it said that it's advantageous for teams to not

1328
01:05:02,560 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 3: rest their starters in the final week, especially when they

1329
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:07,240
Speaker 3: have a bye week. I know Belichick never did, never

1330
01:05:07,360 --> 01:05:10,400
Speaker 3: rested starters and keeping rest Brady. He would rest like

1331
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:13,880
Speaker 3: guys that were like banged up in the final week.

1332
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 3: So he said, they've done studies. I think the main

1333
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 3: team they study was a twenty eleven Packers team, and

1334
01:05:21,800 --> 01:05:23,600
Speaker 3: so I believe them that they're gonna come out and

1335
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:28,360
Speaker 3: play early on. I imagine they probably play like they

1336
01:05:28,360 --> 01:05:30,120
Speaker 3: have zero incentive, but they have. They already have a

1337
01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:32,920
Speaker 3: one seed locked in. I would imagine they play it's

1338
01:05:32,960 --> 01:05:36,800
Speaker 3: like a preseason game, but like a quarter. I'm just

1339
01:05:36,880 --> 01:05:41,240
Speaker 3: guessing here, And that's kind of what this line implies. Well,

1340
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:43,680
Speaker 3: it implied that when the when it was like a pick,

1341
01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:47,600
Speaker 3: you know, that's kind of what it implies. I make

1342
01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:51,200
Speaker 3: this line like eleven and a half. I think if

1343
01:05:51,240 --> 01:05:56,320
Speaker 3: it was like just no no rest at four, you know,

1344
01:05:56,480 --> 01:05:59,360
Speaker 3: half of you're you're basically saying, art they're gonna play

1345
01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:02,000
Speaker 3: some point the first half. Obviously you don't know they

1346
01:06:02,040 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 3: could play the whole first half, but they're gonna play,

1347
01:06:04,920 --> 01:06:10,120
Speaker 3: and Golf I think might play. That's another thing that's

1348
01:06:10,200 --> 01:06:12,720
Speaker 3: uncertain here. But what I'm gonna do here is I'm

1349
01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:14,400
Speaker 3: gonna look to bet the lines live and you gotta

1350
01:06:14,400 --> 01:06:16,840
Speaker 3: be quick. But maybe the Packers come out and they

1351
01:06:16,880 --> 01:06:21,160
Speaker 3: go up ten ten nothing as soon as they hit

1352
01:06:21,240 --> 01:06:24,560
Speaker 3: that second score, Like if this happens, the Lions could

1353
01:06:24,560 --> 01:06:26,440
Speaker 3: always score too. But if they go up two scores

1354
01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:29,320
Speaker 3: at any point, boom lines, because you assume everyone gets pulled.

1355
01:06:29,360 --> 01:06:31,960
Speaker 3: Then they got their work in. They want to just

1356
01:06:32,040 --> 01:06:34,400
Speaker 3: stay in routine, I think, and they want to just

1357
01:06:34,480 --> 01:06:37,560
Speaker 3: get their little game action. So we'll see what the

1358
01:06:37,640 --> 01:06:40,600
Speaker 3: market is like and how sharp it is and how

1359
01:06:41,120 --> 01:06:43,320
Speaker 3: giving it is on the Lions live. But I'll be

1360
01:06:43,360 --> 01:06:45,880
Speaker 3: looking for the Lions live. Other than that, it's a

1361
01:06:45,960 --> 01:06:48,240
Speaker 3: very difficult game to handicap because you don't you just

1362
01:06:48,280 --> 01:06:50,560
Speaker 3: don't know how long Green Bay is gonna play. And

1363
01:06:50,600 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 3: obviously the difference between Rogers and not Rogers is about

1364
01:06:53,400 --> 01:06:54,560
Speaker 3: seven points for a full game.

1365
01:06:55,880 --> 01:06:59,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's he's pretty much you know, the most valuable

1366
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:03,320
Speaker 2: quarterback is this right there with Brady and Mahomes. Depending

1367
01:07:03,360 --> 01:07:04,560
Speaker 2: on how you have it rated, but.

1368
01:07:05,760 --> 01:07:08,480
Speaker 3: Literally take Adams out. You take Adams out, you tacho

1369
01:07:08,640 --> 01:07:08,920
Speaker 3: on and on.

1370
01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:11,000
Speaker 2: I would be surprised if Rogers plays. I mean, I

1371
01:07:11,040 --> 01:07:12,760
Speaker 2: know it's Wednesday and they're saying he's gonna play, and

1372
01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:16,280
Speaker 2: they don't want that same uh situation that happened that

1373
01:07:16,400 --> 01:07:18,000
Speaker 2: it didn't twenty eleven. But you kind of hit on

1374
01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:20,560
Speaker 2: a point, like they could still rest guys who are

1375
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:22,560
Speaker 2: banged up. Rogers banged up. He's had a toe injury

1376
01:07:22,640 --> 01:07:26,520
Speaker 2: for what months now, weeks at least, uh, and he

1377
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:29,240
Speaker 2: hasn't been practicing. Why why why would you go? You

1378
01:07:29,320 --> 01:07:30,920
Speaker 2: walk up to one seed a week, earl, you have

1379
01:07:31,600 --> 01:07:34,320
Speaker 2: the only buy, so he did, like the the best

1380
01:07:34,360 --> 01:07:38,000
Speaker 2: case scenario possible could have happened to you. Why would

1381
01:07:38,000 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 2: you play Rogers even a snat where he could get

1382
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 2: his toe stepped on? Like you know what I mean?

1383
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:44,280
Speaker 2: Like it just doesn't make sense to me. I think

1384
01:07:44,320 --> 01:07:45,960
Speaker 2: they want to say it because I think they still

1385
01:07:46,000 --> 01:07:48,040
Speaker 2: want to, you know, other guys to play, and I

1386
01:07:48,120 --> 01:07:51,400
Speaker 2: still think they want to uh beat the Lions obviously.

1387
01:07:51,440 --> 01:07:53,240
Speaker 2: I think they want guys to be confident heading into

1388
01:07:53,360 --> 01:07:56,680
Speaker 2: the playoffs and into the buy. But I think Rogers sits.

1389
01:07:56,880 --> 01:07:58,560
Speaker 3: I think he's straight up since in this game, I

1390
01:07:58,640 --> 01:07:59,680
Speaker 3: think he plays two drives.

1391
01:08:00,360 --> 01:08:02,080
Speaker 2: I don't think they're risky because, like, I mean, I

1392
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:04,400
Speaker 2: like Matt Lafore, Like, no, I get it.

1393
01:08:04,440 --> 01:08:05,520
Speaker 3: I wouldn't play it either, But.

1394
01:08:05,640 --> 01:08:08,120
Speaker 2: Like, but Matlafor is smart. It's like that's the thing.

1395
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:10,240
Speaker 2: It's like we sit here a lot and we've talked

1396
01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:12,640
Speaker 2: about and we've lost money, you know, betting against the Packers.

1397
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:14,760
Speaker 2: But you know, you got to give Matt Lafor a

1398
01:08:14,800 --> 01:08:16,599
Speaker 2: lot of credit. You know what he's done in these

1399
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:20,760
Speaker 2: first three seasons. Yeah, and I just think he's smarter that,

1400
01:08:21,040 --> 01:08:23,360
Speaker 2: you know, I think he's I think he's smarter than that. Like,

1401
01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 2: I think he's That's that's why the Packers tend to

1402
01:08:26,680 --> 01:08:29,000
Speaker 2: they have two reasons. It's is Aaron Rodgers. But remember

1403
01:08:29,040 --> 01:08:32,200
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers wasn't that great for like that span in there,

1404
01:08:32,240 --> 01:08:35,599
Speaker 2: the last few years on the McCarthy. So now it's

1405
01:08:35,640 --> 01:08:37,880
Speaker 2: like they overachieve every year. Like it's like, oh, we

1406
01:08:37,920 --> 01:08:39,479
Speaker 2: look at their point differentially, and we look at how

1407
01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:41,960
Speaker 2: many games they've actually won, how many games they exactly covered.

1408
01:08:42,160 --> 01:08:44,120
Speaker 2: It's they're always overachieving and away like, hey, maybe we

1409
01:08:44,120 --> 01:08:46,120
Speaker 2: should bet against him, and it's like, Nope, it's like

1410
01:08:46,200 --> 01:08:47,880
Speaker 2: in this I just don't I just don't think it's

1411
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:49,960
Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna actually do it like I

1412
01:08:50,000 --> 01:08:52,760
Speaker 2: think he might think. I think he might think better

1413
01:08:52,840 --> 01:08:54,720
Speaker 2: of it. But I think it's more just games been

1414
01:08:54,720 --> 01:08:56,960
Speaker 2: sure early in the week, make the Lion, Like, why

1415
01:08:57,040 --> 01:08:58,680
Speaker 2: not make the Lions prepare for everyone? Because you want

1416
01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:01,120
Speaker 2: to give love the best chance too, right, So yeah,

1417
01:09:01,120 --> 01:09:02,439
Speaker 2: I mean that's just a gut feel. I don't have

1418
01:09:02,439 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 2: any insight intel, but I would not be surprised if

1419
01:09:05,400 --> 01:09:10,240
Speaker 2: Roger's plays exactly zero snaps in this game. All right,

1420
01:09:10,360 --> 01:09:14,360
Speaker 2: let's go to Chicago at Minnesota. Minnesota's three and a

1421
01:09:14,400 --> 01:09:18,640
Speaker 2: half point favorites, Total's forty four and a half. I

1422
01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:21,280
Speaker 2: kind of wonder that, you know, First of all, I

1423
01:09:21,280 --> 01:09:23,240
Speaker 2: should point out that Minnesota's get ninety one percent of

1424
01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:25,960
Speaker 2: the best and ninety three percent of money, so you know,

1425
01:09:26,160 --> 01:09:30,000
Speaker 2: big the books really need or want Chicago here. But

1426
01:09:30,160 --> 01:09:31,880
Speaker 2: I'm just kind of curious, what do you think? How

1427
01:09:31,920 --> 01:09:34,639
Speaker 2: do you think these teams come out emotionally? We pretty

1428
01:09:34,680 --> 01:09:38,519
Speaker 2: much know it's Naggy's last game, could very well be

1429
01:09:38,600 --> 01:09:41,760
Speaker 2: Mike Zimmer's last game. So and it's just the kind

1430
01:09:41,800 --> 01:09:43,680
Speaker 2: of divisional matchup, but it means absolutely nothing. So, like,

1431
01:09:43,760 --> 01:09:46,240
Speaker 2: where do you think both each of these teams' heads

1432
01:09:46,280 --> 01:09:47,599
Speaker 2: are at heading into this one?

1433
01:09:49,320 --> 01:09:52,080
Speaker 3: No clue, don't care, don't want to watch, don't have

1434
01:09:52,240 --> 01:09:56,160
Speaker 3: any opinion. Okay, Like Cousins is apparently going to play,

1435
01:09:56,280 --> 01:09:59,120
Speaker 3: but maybe he won't. I think Zimmer's like checked out.

1436
01:09:59,200 --> 01:10:02,960
Speaker 3: His team might be check out after last week. The

1437
01:10:03,000 --> 01:10:05,920
Speaker 3: Bears are playing hard of late credit for that. The

1438
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:07,280
Speaker 3: Bike has just been on a down with spot and

1439
01:10:07,320 --> 01:10:09,599
Speaker 3: I just have no interest in them without feeling that's

1440
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:11,439
Speaker 3: a whole different offense. And who knows our Cousins is

1441
01:10:11,520 --> 01:10:13,160
Speaker 3: gonna Look, this is the worst part of the week.

1442
01:10:13,200 --> 01:10:15,519
Speaker 3: Eighteen games like this. Take the Bears money line if

1443
01:10:15,520 --> 01:10:17,920
Speaker 3: you want, Like it's a high higher Bearans game.

1444
01:10:18,439 --> 01:10:21,360
Speaker 2: Yeah you got is a favorite? Yeah you know you

1445
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:24,439
Speaker 2: know what to do? Tampa Bay Carolina. Talk about a

1446
01:10:24,520 --> 01:10:27,719
Speaker 2: line that says something. Tampa Bay after blown out Carolina

1447
01:10:28,360 --> 01:10:31,720
Speaker 2: almost two weeks ago, thirty two to six, now on

1448
01:10:31,880 --> 01:10:34,360
Speaker 2: the road, just seven and a half point underdogs, the

1449
01:10:34,439 --> 01:10:37,320
Speaker 2: total forty one and a half. But this is this

1450
01:10:37,479 --> 01:10:40,080
Speaker 2: is really interesting because the line is coming down.

1451
01:10:41,080 --> 01:10:43,639
Speaker 3: This line is app line that the pucker. The starters

1452
01:10:43,640 --> 01:10:46,240
Speaker 3: aren't gonna play the whole game for Tampa, but arians

1453
01:10:46,280 --> 01:10:48,679
Speaker 3: has come out and said that they will. And last

1454
01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:52,000
Speaker 3: year they did, like in this similar spot, they played

1455
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:54,320
Speaker 3: the whole game, and Brady usually plays the whole game.

1456
01:10:54,760 --> 01:10:57,880
Speaker 3: But they have they have a lot more injuries than normal.

1457
01:10:58,439 --> 01:11:01,240
Speaker 3: You know, you lose Antonio Brown. So there's two there's

1458
01:11:01,280 --> 01:11:03,439
Speaker 3: two sides of the coin. It's like, all right, well,

1459
01:11:03,479 --> 01:11:06,080
Speaker 3: we can't afford any more injuries right now given our situation.

1460
01:11:07,120 --> 01:11:10,360
Speaker 3: Or it's like we got to get working, you know,

1461
01:11:10,479 --> 01:11:12,639
Speaker 3: like let's we have to get reps with these other receivers.

1462
01:11:12,720 --> 01:11:17,080
Speaker 3: We have to get chemistry with Brady. But Aaron's has

1463
01:11:17,080 --> 01:11:19,559
Speaker 3: come out and he's pretty he's like an old school guy.

1464
01:11:20,040 --> 01:11:22,559
Speaker 3: He's out of it. But they're gonna play, and Brady

1465
01:11:22,640 --> 01:11:24,760
Speaker 3: usually plays these games. And last year the Bucks in

1466
01:11:24,800 --> 01:11:27,439
Speaker 3: a similar spot. They didn't win the division. They couldn't

1467
01:11:27,479 --> 01:11:29,439
Speaker 3: won the division. They could have like improved their seed

1468
01:11:29,479 --> 01:11:33,439
Speaker 3: from six to five, and they played the Falcons in

1469
01:11:33,560 --> 01:11:35,280
Speaker 3: the last game of the year, and their starters played

1470
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:39,479
Speaker 3: the entire game. Like Evans has some incentives. I know that,

1471
01:11:40,880 --> 01:11:44,000
Speaker 3: but this line implies that Brady's gonna play like a

1472
01:11:44,080 --> 01:11:48,640
Speaker 3: half and then they're gonna call to day. I don't know,

1473
01:11:49,439 --> 01:11:50,080
Speaker 3: it's weird to me.

1474
01:11:51,160 --> 01:11:52,000
Speaker 2: Here's an interesting thing.

1475
01:11:52,240 --> 01:11:54,200
Speaker 3: This is a this is a baffling week eighteen one.

1476
01:11:54,439 --> 01:11:57,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, like so the line has come down a little bit,

1477
01:11:58,120 --> 01:12:01,760
Speaker 2: you know, you know, towards the payers. It's seven and

1478
01:12:01,800 --> 01:12:05,000
Speaker 2: a half at better MGM. We've tracked sixty nine percent

1479
01:12:05,080 --> 01:12:07,360
Speaker 2: of the bets and ninety nine percent of the money

1480
01:12:07,400 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 2: on the bucks. So this is like the books are

1481
01:12:10,000 --> 01:12:12,080
Speaker 2: just taking a stand here, Like this is like okay,

1482
01:12:12,920 --> 01:12:16,000
Speaker 2: like everyone's like, y'all wrong, Like, you know, they must

1483
01:12:16,080 --> 01:12:18,120
Speaker 2: have took some you know, big big money on Tampa

1484
01:12:18,439 --> 01:12:20,880
Speaker 2: then they knew they were, and then once that, once

1485
01:12:20,920 --> 01:12:23,760
Speaker 2: they got that money, uh, you know, the line they moved.

1486
01:12:23,800 --> 01:12:26,240
Speaker 2: The line moved the other way. So yeah, it's a

1487
01:12:26,280 --> 01:12:28,680
Speaker 2: fascinating one. There seems to be a lot of these

1488
01:12:28,680 --> 01:12:30,519
Speaker 2: ones where the books are kind of taking a stand

1489
01:12:30,560 --> 01:12:33,559
Speaker 2: here in this one. And maybe maybe that big money

1490
01:12:33,640 --> 01:12:35,519
Speaker 2: is not it's not necessarily sharp money. It's just big money.

1491
01:12:35,560 --> 01:12:40,120
Speaker 2: But either way, it's it's fascinating, all right. Final one

1492
01:12:40,479 --> 01:12:44,759
Speaker 2: Seattle at Arizona. The cards six and a half point favorites.

1493
01:12:44,800 --> 01:12:48,320
Speaker 2: The total was forty eight Seattle getting sixty five percent

1494
01:12:48,320 --> 01:12:49,920
Speaker 2: of the bets and ninety nine percent of money. So

1495
01:12:49,920 --> 01:12:52,120
Speaker 2: I don't know. Some this is the same guy just

1496
01:12:52,200 --> 01:12:55,000
Speaker 2: betting big on all these in these the divisional uh

1497
01:12:55,360 --> 01:12:57,559
Speaker 2: these division games here on one side or the other,

1498
01:12:57,800 --> 01:12:59,680
Speaker 2: I don't know. But what do you think of this one?

1499
01:13:01,080 --> 01:13:02,880
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think this lode is a bit too high.

1500
01:13:02,920 --> 01:13:04,960
Speaker 3: The Cardinals are coming kind of predictable. It's like take

1501
01:13:05,000 --> 01:13:08,320
Speaker 3: them on the road as dogs and then fade them

1502
01:13:08,360 --> 01:13:11,639
Speaker 3: at home and fade them his favorites, Like I want

1503
01:13:11,640 --> 01:13:14,400
Speaker 3: to fade the Cardinals here. I want seven. I think

1504
01:13:14,439 --> 01:13:16,200
Speaker 3: I prefer the over. I'm gonna take a little more,

1505
01:13:16,280 --> 01:13:18,880
Speaker 3: but this if you recalled out to pat myself in

1506
01:13:18,920 --> 01:13:20,840
Speaker 3: the back. But like a month, about a month and

1507
01:13:20,880 --> 01:13:22,760
Speaker 3: a half ago before the forty nine ers team, I

1508
01:13:22,840 --> 01:13:25,080
Speaker 3: was like the Seahawks are an over team, and they've

1509
01:13:25,080 --> 01:13:27,880
Speaker 3: been like an over, just an over Juggernauts over the

1510
01:13:27,960 --> 01:13:30,559
Speaker 3: last five weeks. Besides that Ran game, I think they're

1511
01:13:30,560 --> 01:13:32,040
Speaker 3: for and one of the over because like their offense

1512
01:13:32,160 --> 01:13:34,920
Speaker 3: was underperforming, like their early downs, they were elite, but

1513
01:13:34,960 --> 01:13:37,000
Speaker 3: it wasn't translating the points. It wasn't translated late dense

1514
01:13:37,040 --> 01:13:41,040
Speaker 3: and their defense was like elite in the scoring department,

1515
01:13:41,080 --> 01:13:43,080
Speaker 3: but they had some worrying signs and then like now

1516
01:13:43,120 --> 01:13:45,880
Speaker 3: they've had like all these shootouts since and then Russ

1517
01:13:45,960 --> 01:13:48,439
Speaker 3: is healthy, right, and you saw Russ finally, you know

1518
01:13:48,520 --> 01:13:51,240
Speaker 3: he's I think he's fully healed and he finally started

1519
01:13:51,280 --> 01:13:53,559
Speaker 3: to cook over the past couple of weeks.

1520
01:13:54,160 --> 01:13:57,840
Speaker 2: So the ball now they can run again.

1521
01:13:57,920 --> 01:14:00,280
Speaker 3: And I think that I think that this is game

1522
01:14:00,280 --> 01:14:02,479
Speaker 3: where and and the and the cardinal secondary is a

1523
01:14:02,520 --> 01:14:05,120
Speaker 3: mess right now. I think this is a game where

1524
01:14:05,240 --> 01:14:07,680
Speaker 3: Carol also will be aggressive. Like that's one of the

1525
01:14:07,760 --> 01:14:10,800
Speaker 3: things that I hate about Seahawks overs generally, and that's

1526
01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:12,360
Speaker 3: one one of the reason I started playing them lately,

1527
01:14:12,400 --> 01:14:14,040
Speaker 3: because it's like now they have nothing to lose, right,

1528
01:14:14,120 --> 01:14:15,760
Speaker 3: So it's not it's not like Carol's like, oh, we

1529
01:14:15,800 --> 01:14:17,360
Speaker 3: gotta run it, and like we got a punt on

1530
01:14:17,479 --> 01:14:19,479
Speaker 3: fourth and one, so I think you'll get it's like

1531
01:14:19,520 --> 01:14:24,439
Speaker 3: the last game of the year. So and I think

1532
01:14:24,560 --> 01:14:27,880
Speaker 3: Mary will have success some success against the Seahawks. I

1533
01:14:27,960 --> 01:14:31,400
Speaker 3: think that this this total is a little low, and

1534
01:14:31,439 --> 01:14:33,600
Speaker 3: I would look, Seattle, if you can grab a seven.

1535
01:14:34,080 --> 01:14:35,519
Speaker 2: All right, that is going to wrap it up for

1536
01:14:35,560 --> 01:14:38,400
Speaker 2: the best of the rest time for our Survivor pool

1537
01:14:38,439 --> 01:14:42,080
Speaker 2: picking a week. If you're still in it and just like, congratulations,

1538
01:14:42,600 --> 01:14:44,920
Speaker 2: I can't imagine it's like a lot of people that

1539
01:14:45,040 --> 01:14:48,200
Speaker 2: still are you Obviously, as you say, YA don't need

1540
01:14:48,280 --> 01:14:50,280
Speaker 2: our help. But if you had to pick one team

1541
01:14:50,479 --> 01:14:52,320
Speaker 2: you know lock to win this week would be.

1542
01:14:52,960 --> 01:14:55,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I would go Bills, but you've probably

1543
01:14:55,200 --> 01:14:58,280
Speaker 3: used them. I mean obviously, if you like have the cults,

1544
01:14:58,800 --> 01:15:02,280
Speaker 3: you got to use them, but you probably you probably

1545
01:15:02,360 --> 01:15:05,760
Speaker 3: have used them. Yeah, I would. I would use the

1546
01:15:05,840 --> 01:15:08,479
Speaker 3: Charges if you haven't, or Dallas if you haven't, but

1547
01:15:08,640 --> 01:15:11,400
Speaker 3: you might have used them. Wow, So you could use Washington,

1548
01:15:11,479 --> 01:15:13,680
Speaker 3: you probably haven't used them. But if you're still in

1549
01:15:13,760 --> 01:15:15,479
Speaker 3: it and you have limited options we haven't mentioned just

1550
01:15:16,479 --> 01:15:18,559
Speaker 3: and you're in a big pool, DM me and I'll

1551
01:15:18,560 --> 01:15:20,240
Speaker 3: try to help you out, but you probably don't mean

1552
01:15:20,280 --> 01:15:22,160
Speaker 3: my help. You're in it. I'm out of mind. Thanks

1553
01:15:22,200 --> 01:15:22,880
Speaker 3: Sean hockey Ley.

1554
01:15:24,640 --> 01:15:26,479
Speaker 2: I think Washington is an interesting one that people might

1555
01:15:26,520 --> 01:15:27,080
Speaker 2: not have used that.

1556
01:15:27,800 --> 01:15:29,439
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, I think that's good point.

1557
01:15:29,600 --> 01:15:31,280
Speaker 2: All right, that's going to wrap it up for our

1558
01:15:31,479 --> 01:15:34,439
Speaker 2: week eighteen Action Network podcast. As a reminder, you can

1559
01:15:34,479 --> 01:15:36,519
Speaker 2: follow all of our picks on the award winning Action

1560
01:15:36,600 --> 01:15:38,599
Speaker 2: Network app. Just search for Sunday six Pack and apps

1561
01:15:38,600 --> 01:15:40,680
Speaker 2: follow feature. Be sure to leave us a rating and

1562
01:15:40,720 --> 01:15:44,920
Speaker 2: review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And of course we

1563
01:15:45,000 --> 01:15:47,080
Speaker 2: will be back for the playoffs, so we'll be here

1564
01:15:47,760 --> 01:15:50,519
Speaker 2: every week throughout the Super Bowl continuing to break everything down,

1565
01:15:50,960 --> 01:15:52,920
Speaker 2: give you our picks. We might have to switch it

1566
01:15:53,000 --> 01:15:55,439
Speaker 2: up in terms of the you know how we do

1567
01:15:55,520 --> 01:15:57,679
Speaker 2: it with less games on a slate, but will definitely

1568
01:15:57,760 --> 01:16:00,840
Speaker 2: be going more in depth obviously break it down each

1569
01:16:00,840 --> 01:16:03,960
Speaker 2: other game. So yeah, stay tuned and and you can

1570
01:16:04,000 --> 01:16:05,840
Speaker 2: follow Stuck on Twitter at Stuck you too. You can

1571
01:16:05,880 --> 01:16:08,400
Speaker 2: find me at Chris Raybond. You can find us at

1572
01:16:08,439 --> 01:16:11,200
Speaker 2: those same handles in the free award winning Action Network app.

1573
01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:14,559
Speaker 2: Be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for our

1574
01:16:14,600 --> 01:16:18,080
Speaker 2: betting and our fantasy content, Fantasy Labs for our DFS content.

1575
01:16:18,720 --> 01:16:21,439
Speaker 2: Happy New Year, let's get this sch money so