1 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: On this episode of news World, we're really going to 2 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: talk about the whole process of reconciliation, why it's so complicated, 3 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:16,600 Speaker 1: how it's evolved, and as you watch it play out 4 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: in the next couple months, which you can expect and 5 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: look for. Reconciliation is a central tool to try to 6 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: get some control over spending. It was originally created with 7 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of nineteen seventy four, 8 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: and it allows for special consideration of certain defined tax 9 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: spending and debt limit legislation. Now, part of the reason 10 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: this was necessary is that the Senate, which was designed, 11 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: as President George Washington put it to be the cooling 12 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: saucer to the hot cup of coffee from the House, 13 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 1: has a set of rules that make it so hard 14 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 1: to pass anything that if you want something big, it 15 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: helps to have a device to get things through. And 16 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 1: that's what reconciliation is. Let me explain further. In the Senate, 17 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: you have to have sixty votes to be able to 18 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 1: bring something up to pass it. Now, when you have 19 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: a part it is an issue. Neither party has had 20 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 1: a sixty vote majority, and so people can stop things, 21 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: cause confusion, demand specific changes and they came up with 22 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: the idea of a reconciliation process so that you could 23 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: actually bring it to the floor. And it's the one 24 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: thing which cannot be full of bustered, so it only 25 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: takes a simple majority or a tie vote and the 26 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 1: Vice President. That's why it becomes so central. And over 27 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: time what's happened is the House sent have learned to 28 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: dump everything they can into a reconciliation bill because it's 29 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 1: the one thing you can try to force through the Senate. 30 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: And that's throughly the background of this and that's why 31 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: it works. Now, in theory, we ought to have a simple, 32 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 1: clear process of appropriations and everything which is spent by 33 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: the government should be appropriated, which means that the Appropriations 34 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:27,519 Speaker 1: Committee writes a bill, let's say, for the Defense Department, 35 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 1: sends it from the House to the Senate. They meet, 36 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 1: they come up with a single bill which is then 37 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: voted on by both the House and the Senate. It 38 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: then goes to the President to get signed. Now, that's 39 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: the way it should work, and they should get it 40 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: all done before the end of the fiscal year, so 41 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: that when they enter the new fiscal year, which is 42 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 1: October first, At that point you're supposed to have passed 43 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: all the appropriations bills, well, almost nobody gets it done 44 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: for a lot of different reasons. It's very hard hard 45 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 1: to do. People are fighting over the amount of money. 46 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: The very process of legislation is cumbersome and filled with 47 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: all sorts of loopholes that slow you down and require 48 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: you to do things. So when you don't have all 49 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: the appropriations bills done, you then have what's called a 50 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:21,799 Speaker 1: continuing resolution. Now, the continuing resolution basically says normally, we're 51 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 1: going to continue to spend at the rate of last year. 52 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: If you want to spend more money, put some pressure 53 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 1: to try to adopt to appropriations. That's to get them done. 54 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: But generally speaking, the use of a continuing resolution has 55 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: been ongoing now for several decades. The challenge hair is 56 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: really simple. You want to get a continuing resolution outmemror. 57 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: It takes sixty votes in the Senate and you have 58 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: to have the votes in the House. So both sides, 59 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: both Democrats and Republicans, figure out ways to basically charge 60 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 1: a fee. You want to get this done, then I 61 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: want something from my side, and so you get a 62 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: very difficult, very tense negotiations and It then leads to 63 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 1: potentially shutting down the government because theoretically, if you do 64 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: not have a appropriations bill and you do not have a 65 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: continuing resolution, there is no money. Now again, in the 66 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: nature of the American system, they find ways to wriggle 67 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:22,679 Speaker 1: around this, and so the Defense Department, the police, people 68 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 1: who matter for public safety somehow get funded even when 69 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 1: they're not funded. But this puts real pressure on the Congress. 70 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: And that's why routinely two or three or four times 71 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: a year you'll see stories about is the government going 72 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,480 Speaker 1: to shut down? Well, even if it does shut down, 73 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: everybody gets paid while they're not working. Then it reopens, 74 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: so it's not a crisis. But it just makes everything 75 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 1: very complicated. So the first thing we're looking at is 76 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: can they get through a continuing resolution to keep the 77 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,279 Speaker 1: government open, and that has to go through both the 78 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: House and the Senate. Second, once you have gotten past 79 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: that challenge, you have to pass a budget. And the 80 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: House recently, and I wrote about this as sort of 81 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 1: a miraculous event. The House, which has no margin on 82 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 1: the Republican side, I mean they're down to having a 83 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: two or three vote margin, and they have one member 84 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 1: from Kentucky, who will always vote no and is totally hopeless. 85 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: So they really have the tiniest of margins. And they 86 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: had to pass a budget. And this was really important 87 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: psychologically because both President Trump and Speaker Johnson want to 88 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: pass one big reconciliation bill which would have money for 89 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 1: the border, but it would also have money for the 90 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: tax cuts and would have a large number of changes 91 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 1: to save money. And they put together a budget and 92 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:55,479 Speaker 1: they brought it up, and at first Johnson thought he 93 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: did not have the votes. He thought he was three 94 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 1: votes short, and so he told the members go on home, 95 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:02,839 Speaker 1: we're not going to be able to vote today. Ten 96 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: minutes later they called back and said, whoops, come on 97 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 1: back in because in the interim Johnson, who had done 98 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: an amazing job and had gotten the first two hundred 99 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 1: and thirteen or two hundred and fourteen yeses, Trump stepped 100 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: in and got the last three literally by phone calls 101 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: while they were trying to decide whether or not to 102 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: move forward. So now the House has passed a budget, 103 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: and they'll come back to why that's important in just 104 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 1: a minute. It's now over on the Senate side, and 105 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 1: it gets trickier there, both because under the Senate rules, 106 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 1: the budget takes sixty votes. The Democrats aren't inclined to 107 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 1: be cooperative. They want to add some things, but anything 108 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: you add, if it has to come back to the House, 109 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 1: it's very hard to see how Johnson can pass it. 110 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 1: So they'll have a very tough time getting something out 111 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: of the Senate. If it's significantly different from the House, 112 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 1: they'll have a very tough time negotiating it and getting 113 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:02,799 Speaker 1: down to a single comment budget resolution. Now, at that point, 114 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: the reason this matter is is under the Congressional Budget Act, 115 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: it is the budget which establishes the overall plan, sets 116 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: the guidelines on spending and revenue, and at that point 117 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: you trigger the reconciliation Bill. Now, if you think about it, 118 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: reconciliation is a very useful practical term. What it means 119 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: is that you have to reconcile the budget has passed 120 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: with current law. So let's say that the budget has 121 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: passed says we're going to spend a billion dollars on 122 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: going into space, but current law says we're going to 123 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: spend three billion dollars going into space. Now you have 124 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: to reconcile. And the principle is that the budget takes precedent. 125 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: So you've got to find a way to cut the 126 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: two billion dollars in order to have reconciled current spending 127 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: with the budget. And that becomes a very very complicated process. 128 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: If they're lucky, if they can get it done, he'll 129 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: take two or three months to negotiate the scale of 130 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: change that they want, because, to his credit, Speaker Johnson 131 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 1: has picked up the sentiment of President Trump and the 132 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: desire of the people who elected President Trump to achieve 133 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: real change. And so they have produced a budget which 134 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: is going to require dramatic real change. Now there's one 135 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: more piece of this, just to sort of add to 136 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 1: the complexity. Reconciliation is defined in the Senate by what 137 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: is called the Bird Rule. Bob Bird of West Virginia 138 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 1: was the Majority Leader and then the Appropriations chairman. I've 139 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: served with him. He was one of the smartest and 140 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 1: toughest people in the US Senate in modern times, and 141 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: he proposed a rule which basically says you can only 142 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: bring up under reconciliation things that relate to money. And 143 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: so that means that they can't just dump in every 144 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 1: bill they want and thereby escape having to go through 145 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 1: the process involved with the potential for the Senate to 146 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 1: basically full of buster and stop it. Now the Bird 147 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: role then has the parliamentarian deal with is this in 148 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 1: or is this out? Does this effect spending or does 149 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: it effect revenues? If it does, then you're allowed to 150 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: move forward. If you do more than the budget bill, 151 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: you can then be pushed into you're not reconciling to 152 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 1: the budget. So the budget really sets the stage. Then 153 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 1: you think through the reconciliation and you have to word 154 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 1: everything very carefully. Even in the House, you have to 155 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: look at everything very carefully in order to make sure 156 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: that you fit the bird rule so that it could 157 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,199 Speaker 1: be passed with fifty votes plus the vice president. And 158 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: that's an enormously complicating problem in terms of what you 159 00:09:55,200 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 1: can and can't get done. Now. The fact is that 160 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act was adopted by 161 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 1: an extraordinarily liberal Congress after Watergate and after the anti 162 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: war movement was at its peak, and so they designed 163 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 1: the process i think, to favor spending and to make 164 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: it hard to cut taxes, and they set the whole 165 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: thing up for that. But the fact is that the 166 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: system does work in a complicated, clumbersome way, which is 167 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,199 Speaker 1: part of the nature of the American system. And when 168 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: you look at it, Congress has passed twenty seven reconciliation 169 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:51,200 Speaker 1: bills since the original Act was adopted, and twenty three 170 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 1: of them became law. President Clinton vetoed three, President Obama 171 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: vetoed one. But the fact is, over time we were 172 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 1: able to move very substantial changes by using budget reconciliation. Now, 173 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: at this point, what you have to confront is, for example, 174 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:14,080 Speaker 1: the Balanced Budget Act of nineteen ninety seven was a 175 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:18,079 Speaker 1: budget reconciliation bill that set the stage for the only 176 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 1: four balanced budgets in your lifetime. It was a very big, 177 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:28,440 Speaker 1: very important deal. Now, the fact is the system forces 178 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 1: you to work together. Twelve of the first fourteen and 179 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 1: acted reconciliation bills actually occurred even though the presidency, House 180 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: and Senate were not controlled by the same party. I 181 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 1: always tell people, for example, that when we won in 182 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety four with the Contract with America, we entered 183 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: office as a governing party, and by that I mean 184 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: our interest was in getting things done, in finding solutions 185 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: and working on something. Knowing that we had a liberal 186 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: Democratic president and so we had to negotiate in a 187 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: frameworks bill. Clinton would sign it because otherwise it wouldn't 188 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 1: become law. We didn't have the votes to override his veto. Now, 189 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 1: in that setting, we managed to get a lot done. 190 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: As I said, we bounced the budget for four times 191 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: for the only time in the last hundred years, and 192 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: we passed welfare reform. We passed a whole series of things. 193 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: But it required having an attitude that we were going 194 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 1: to get positive things done and we're going to focus 195 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: on solution. And I think that's a key thing to 196 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: remember about this. So you have two things going on 197 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: right now. In parallel. You have the current spending law, 198 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: which Biden signed in December. It expires on March fourteenth. 199 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 1: So if you are going to try to avoid the 200 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: government shutting down, they've got to pass a continuing resolution 201 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 1: to keep the government moving and they've got to get 202 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 1: it all worked out. It's going to be interesting to 203 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 1: see exactly what happens and how it happens. The bill 204 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: that came out of the House is a very Republican bill, 205 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: and President Trump is in he said on Truth Social Quote. 206 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 1: The House and Senate have put together, under the circumstances 207 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 1: a very good funding bill. All Republicans should vote yes, please, 208 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 1: yes next week. Great things are coming from America, and 209 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 1: I'm asking you all to give us a few months 210 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: to get us through to September so we can continue 211 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:20,959 Speaker 1: to put the country's financial house in order. Now that's 212 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 1: the President's version, and we'll see in the next couple 213 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 1: of days what the impact is on the Senate side. 214 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: It's clear that on the House side they have to 215 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 1: pass it with only Republican votes. I think they're facing 216 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 1: a different challenge in the Senate and that continuing resolutions 217 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 1: come up under regular order and that means you can 218 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 1: have a fullobuster. So we'll see how they maneuver try 219 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: to get this done. I think it will be very 220 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 1: hard for them to come back to the House and 221 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 1: get something. And my personal guess is that what you're 222 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 1: going to see is the House pass a continuing resolution 223 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: and go home, so they're not there to negotiate with. 224 00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:59,719 Speaker 1: So the Senate either has to vote on what the 225 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 1: House did or allow the government to close, and the 226 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 1: Democrats historically are very opposed to them. However, when the 227 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 1: House version came up, House Minority Leader Jeffreys, in a 228 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 1: letter to Democrats wrote, quote, Republicans have decided to introduce 229 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: a partisan continuing resolution that threatens to cut funding for 230 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 1: health care, nutritional assistance, and veterans benefits through the end 231 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: of the current fiscal year. That is not acceptable, and 232 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: Kim Jeffries, the Leader, and the Democratic Whip Katherine Clark 233 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: and the Democratic Caucus Chair Pete aug we Are said 234 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: in a joint statement, quote, the legislation does nothing to 235 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: protect Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid while exposing the American 236 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: people to further pain throughout this fiscal year. We are 237 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: voting now now. The reason that happens is if Speaker 238 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 1: Johnson tried to do something that the Democrats would like, 239 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: he would lose a third to half of his own conference, Because, 240 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: I mean, Jeffries is not stupid, but if he gets 241 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: a chance to negotiate, he's going to ask for a 242 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: lot more than Johnson normally could do, and so makes 243 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: perfect sense for Jeffries to be currently focused on trying 244 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: to stop it. Now. I think that changes when you 245 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 1: get to the reconciliation bill, and I'll explain why in 246 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: a minute. But the budget itself and the continuing resolution 247 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 1: both are going to be essentially a partisan. Whether or 248 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: not the Budget Reconciliation is partisan, I'm not quite sure yet, 249 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: because that's where you're dealing with real change and real issues. 250 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:36,239 Speaker 1: So let me talk for a minute about the politics 251 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 1: of the Budget Reconciliation Act. I had a lot of 252 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: experience with this both in the sixteen years when we 253 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 1: were in the minority and I was involved. I mean, 254 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: I helped write my first draft budget with David Stockman, 255 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: who later on became Director of the Office of Management Budget. 256 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: We wrote that in nineteen seventy nine nineteen eighty. We 257 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 1: called it the Budget of Hope and Opportunity, and we're 258 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: trying to move in a positive way in ares, which 259 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: reflected both Jack Kemp and Ronald Reagan. And it is 260 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: sort of the baseline for what we came back to 261 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: many years later and passed under the contract with America, 262 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: which allowed us to then get to those four balanced budgets. 263 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: I've been looking at this sort of thing for a 264 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: long time. Here are a couple of key ground boys. 265 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: It's very important that the Republicans win the argument about 266 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: what is going on. And let me give you an example. 267 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: You'll hear a lot about cuts to Medicaid. Well, I 268 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: just did some real research last week, and the fact is, 269 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: under any circumstance, medicaid spending is going to go up. 270 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 1: In fact, under the worst circumstance, it's going to go 271 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 1: up by one hundred and sixty nine billion dollars over 272 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 1: the next nine years. Now, Washington is the only city 273 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: in the country where an increase is a cut, and 274 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 1: that's because the Congressional Budget Office was invented by that 275 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy four radical Congress, and it is designed to 276 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: discourage any kind of shrinking government and to encourage higher taxes. 277 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:28,439 Speaker 1: And the Congressional Budget Office invents a fantasy score of 278 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 1: what they think should be spent. They're not elected by anyway. 279 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: That's a perfect example of the whole danger of bureaucrats 280 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: and the degree to which the system is sick. So 281 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: Republicans have to go out and be prepared to go 282 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 1: those to those with the bureaucracy, with the news media, 283 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 1: and with the Democrats, and to say this is an increase. 284 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 1: I may I'd be as big an increase as you 285 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,360 Speaker 1: would like, but it's an increase. And we just got 286 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 1: a poll in from the America's New Majority Project which 287 00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: is very encouraging, in which the American people are very 288 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,719 Speaker 1: very very clear that they in fact do not want 289 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: to see the government go on with business as usual. 290 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: They actually are very very interested in having the government 291 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 1: be in a position where we cut spending, we cut 292 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 1: the bureaucracy, and we are in a position where we 293 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: take on these kind of issues. Part of it's because 294 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 1: there's a deep filming. I was actually surprised by this, 295 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 1: but in our recent America's New Majority poll, eighty four 296 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: percent of American people, and I want you to check 297 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,639 Speaker 1: this against your own beliefs, eighty four percent agree that 298 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 1: we have a corrupt political system. I think about that. 299 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 1: More than eight out of every ten people think that 300 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 1: our system is corrupt. Eighty one percent say this corruption 301 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: is a major obstacle to getting America on the right track. 302 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: Sixty eight percent, there's little more than two out of 303 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,679 Speaker 1: every three say the bureaucracy is a major or significant 304 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 1: part of that corruption, and then fifty seven percent say 305 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 1: the bureaucracy needs a major overhaul. In fact, they believe 306 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:04,439 Speaker 1: the change is so important that if their choice is 307 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 1: to either move quickly, make mistakes and correct them, or 308 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: move much more slowly to be careful. Fifty eight percent 309 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: say it's better to move quickly and correct mistakes than 310 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 1: to move slowly and potentially have the system not change. 311 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 1: So the point I'm making is the country is ready 312 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:27,120 Speaker 1: for very substantial direct change, and if Republicans go out 313 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: and make the argument that in fact, we can have 314 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 1: a better system, we can have a system using, for example, 315 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 1: the make America Healthy approach of Robert F. Kennedy Junior, 316 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: which has turned out in the same poll to be 317 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:46,919 Speaker 1: very popular and very acceptable. We have discovered that the 318 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 1: American people believe that you can reduce the growth of 319 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: medicaid spending by removing illegal immigrants and requiring able bodied 320 00:19:56,119 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: recipients to work. It's just amazing the consistent patterns. Sixty 321 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:04,480 Speaker 1: eight percent of Americans believe individuals who could work but 322 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: choose not to work while receiving safety net benefits are 323 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 1: committing fraud. Seventy eight percent support a work requirement for 324 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 1: safety net programs like Medicaid, food stamps, and income assistance, 325 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: and the average American believes that about twenty five percent 326 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 1: of federal spending is lost to fraud. Now, they define 327 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 1: fraud more than just criminal activity, but they certainly are 328 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 1: not sympathetic to the notion that you can't change anything, 329 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,360 Speaker 1: you can't cut anything, that we have to go forward blindly. 330 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: And that puts the Democrats in a very difficult position 331 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 1: because they're not set up to be participating in taking 332 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: apart the machine they built since Franklin Roosevelt came into 333 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: office in nineteen thirty three, they have spent almost a 334 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: century building this huge, centralized bureaucratic system which gives out 335 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 1: a lot of money to their foundations, their interest groups, 336 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:01,880 Speaker 1: their universities, pays their union members, and so they're sort 337 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,640 Speaker 1: of trapped. And yet when you talk to the country 338 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 1: at large, including a very large number of Democrats, I mean, 339 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,919 Speaker 1: you don't get to an eighty one percent number without 340 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,879 Speaker 1: having virtually all the Republicans, virtually all the Independents, and 341 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: a fairly large number of Democrats. So what you have 342 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 1: as an environment which we really haven't seen very often. 343 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: And the challenge to the Republicans and this is very hard, 344 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 1: trust me, because when we did it, it was extraordinarily hard. 345 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 1: The challenge is to now take these big ideas and 346 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 1: find solutions that actually will improve services, save money, produce 347 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 1: better outcomes. Now we know it can be done. Look 348 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 1: at everybody who goes online orders from Amazon and has 349 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 1: it delivered within nine hours to three days and just 350 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: sees that as normal. Well, the private sector has been 351 00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 1: innovating and developing and using technology ways that are amazing 352 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 1: and that have enabled us to be a dramatically more 353 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 1: productive country and a country that is dramatically more capable 354 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: of getting things done at lower cost. And yet it's 355 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 1: in that setting that you have people saying no, no, 356 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: you can't change anything. And I think that's why we 357 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 1: are seeing the kind of struggle that's underway in Washington today. 358 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 1: I would say that there are three things you should 359 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 1: watch for over the next two to three months as 360 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 1: the reconciliation process moves forward. And I emphasize the next 361 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: two to three months because I believe absolutely one hundred 362 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 1: percent this has to be done by late May or June, 363 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 1: because in order for the House Republicans to retain control, 364 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 1: they have to go to the country next year having 365 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 1: been successful. If we have a weak economy in twenty 366 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 1: twenty six, it'll be extraordinarily hard for the Republicans to 367 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 1: keep the House. On the other their hand, if all 368 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: the efforts to tax cuts, to deregulation, to getting huge 369 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: investments from all around the world to invest in the US. 370 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 1: If all that pays off and we end up with 371 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,879 Speaker 1: a good economy next year, it'll be I think, relatively 372 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 1: easy to keep control of the House. So there's a 373 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 1: lot at stake. This requires us, I believe, to get 374 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: the Reconciliation Bill done to the President and signed into 375 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: law before the fourth of July, so you have six 376 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,199 Speaker 1: months for the economy to start speeding up. So you 377 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:36,119 Speaker 1: enter twenty twenty six with a very healthy economy, with 378 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 1: substantial reform in the government, and with a sense that 379 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: the President and the House and Senate Republicans are keeping 380 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 1: their work and are getting the job done. That was 381 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 1: the great advantage we had when we ran for reelection. 382 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 1: Remember that when we first won in nineteen ninety four 383 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 1: of the Contract with America, we were the first Republican 384 00:23:56,400 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: majority in forty years. In fact, from nineteen twenty eight 385 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 1: to nineteen ninety four, you had four years of Republicans 386 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 1: and sixty four years of Democrats. That's how big the 387 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 1: difference was. Since we won, people saw that we were serious, 388 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,879 Speaker 1: and we passed welfare reform. We began to balance the budget, 389 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: we passed tax cuts, who we helped invent Medicare advantage. 390 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: So people re elected us in nineteen ninety six. That 391 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:28,119 Speaker 1: was the first time House Republicans had been re elected 392 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: in sixty eight years, not since nineteen twenty eight. Since then, 393 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 1: if you start in nineteen ninety four, Republicans have held 394 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 1: the House for twenty two years. Democrats have only held 395 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: the House for eight. Now, that's a genuine revolution and 396 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 1: who's in charge in the legislative branch. And we have 397 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: a chance next year to extend that. But to extend that, 398 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 1: we have to have a reconciliation bill with huge tax cuts, 399 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 1: with huge deregulation, with kind of fundamental changes needed in 400 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 1: order for this economy to start really moving at the 401 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,840 Speaker 1: pace it could. There's no reason we can't have two 402 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 1: or three or four years of five percent economic growth. 403 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: That's what Reagan got. And so if we start moving 404 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: the right direction, we could actually have a remarkable couple 405 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 1: of years, and we could actually move towards what President 406 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:23,439 Speaker 1: Trump in his speech to the Congress called a golden age. 407 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening. Newsworld is produced by Ginglish three 408 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guardzi Sloan. Our 409 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,199 Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was 410 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,159 Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at 411 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 1: Ginglish three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope 412 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us with 413 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 1: five stars and give us a review so others can 414 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 1: learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of Newtsworld 415 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 1: can sent up from my three free weekly columns at 416 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,640 Speaker 1: ginglishtree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I am Newt Gingrich. 417 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 1: This is Newtsworld.