Speaker 1: Uh and joining us as aerial co and senior fellow
Speaker 1: at Atlantic Council to discuss the latest developments on China,
Speaker 1: and not just of course about zero COVID, but of
Speaker 1: course geo politics here as well. I mean, we still
Speaker 1: protest this time last week, Errol, and it seems the
Speaker 1: Communist Party paid heed. Indeed they're lifting the most severe restrictions,
Speaker 1: but those who protested would be identified and probably arrested
Speaker 1: and punished. This is a high tech totalitarian society and
Speaker 1: it is not going to evolve anytime soon as long
Speaker 1: as converte Seizing Pain is in charge. And now he
Speaker 1: secured his rule for the foreseeable future. The level of
Speaker 1: protests so far does not indicate that they're going to
Speaker 1: be structural reforms politically. The big challenge I think for
Speaker 1: for see is after he destroyed UM main Chinese companies
Speaker 1: UM to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars,
Speaker 1: is he going to be a retreat and allow the
Speaker 1: economy to build itself back. I am not so sure
Speaker 1: so far. So has he broken the social contract with
Speaker 1: the citizens of the mainland. A lot of Chinese observers
Speaker 1: and analysts say that yes he did, because the social
Speaker 1: contract was that the quality of life and g d
Speaker 1: P per cabinet were growing up and up, and it's
Speaker 1: not happening anymore. Whereas the internal oppression, be it um
Speaker 1: UH in the virtual Chinese Internet realm or in the
Speaker 1: street with the pulvid restrictions. Uh, those um restrictions, we're
Speaker 1: getting worse. And we saw the outpouring of um UH
Speaker 1: public morning for the leader who was a more liberal one,
Speaker 1: Senza Mink who passed away the age of ninety six. Uh.
Speaker 1: The leader who was appointed in fact after um Tiana
Speaker 1: man Um protest, who was not a sweetheart but relative decision.
Speaker 1: Think he was much more liberal. Yeah, okay, sure we've
Speaker 1: got that. But let's take a look at what's going
Speaker 1: on in terms of China in a geopolitical sense here,
Speaker 1: and they try to back away a little bit from
Speaker 1: Ukraine or should I say Russia's giving Russia support in
Speaker 1: that war. They've dialed that back a little bit, But
Speaker 1: the Taiwan question remains open. And the thing is nationalism
Speaker 1: can of course be the refuge of a scoundrel. Well
Speaker 1: it is, and clearly in is meeting with President Biden,
Speaker 1: j Ping did not back off the Taiwan question. We
Speaker 1: saw the qualming tom party UM winning in the local
Speaker 1: elections in Taiwan, and that's a party that still speaks
Speaker 1: about unification with China. Uh So, I think the best
Speaker 1: we can hope for is that there's no military clash
Speaker 1: over Taiwan anytime soon, and the differences and disagreements are
Speaker 1: resolved in a diplomatic way. However, the long term vector
Speaker 1: of China getting stronger, China building its military, and the
Speaker 1: US facing very serious challenges in terms of our ability
Speaker 1: to conduct two military operations, one in Europe, uh god
Speaker 1: forbid it escalates in Ukraine, and another one in the Pacific.
Speaker 1: We do not have the military resources, the money, the technology,
Speaker 1: technology o based to conduct two wars, and we need
Speaker 1: to be very careful how we UM conduct our foreign
Speaker 1: policy and our military posture in Russia. So Ariel at
Speaker 1: the beginning of the Party Congress President chiefs speech, at
Speaker 1: least in the view of analyst, was kind of um.
Speaker 1: It came away, you came or the listener came away
Speaker 1: with this sense that it was much more inwardly focused.
Speaker 1: And here we have, according to Reuters, she traveling to
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia at the end of the week. I mean,
Speaker 1: how are we to understand the role that she sees
Speaker 1: himself playing on the world stage going forward. That's a
Speaker 1: fascinating question. I think after he secured the domestic power,
Speaker 1: or he heals that his power now is formally in
Speaker 1: his shrine. He opened UH an enormous um campaign of
Speaker 1: foreign activities he met with when he won foreign leaders
Speaker 1: in the last three months or so, from Finland to
Speaker 1: New Zealand, UM, Australia, UH, the Bali meeting. He is
Speaker 1: very active, and it's interesting that he's going to Saudi
Speaker 1: Arabia because UH to secure the Chinese energy supply is
Speaker 1: a paramount challenge for any Chinese leader, and with the
Speaker 1: Saudis UH feeling myths and distancing themselves from the United States.
Speaker 1: There are many problems between the Biden administration and Prince
Speaker 1: Mohammed bin Salman. Um. The Chinese will step into that vacuum,
Speaker 1: as they did with Iran. By the way, there's a
Speaker 1: huge three hundred billion dollars over thirty year investment package
Speaker 1: between Beijing and Tehran. UH. Jing and Moscow both support
Speaker 1: the press of Iranian leadership in what they're doing to
Speaker 1: their own people. So the competition from the Middle East
Speaker 1: to Africa to Russia will continue area very quickly here
Speaker 1: as well. What about the impact of the Chips Act.
Speaker 1: I mean, how damaging is that for the Chinese economy.
Speaker 1: It's very damaging. I talked to a number of experts
Speaker 1: at a conference in Paris where I was recently, and
Speaker 1: people are saying that this, these limitations on US experts
Speaker 1: to China devastating. People warned that they may be a
Speaker 1: trigger to a quick deterioration in the U. S. China relations,
Speaker 1: and again we have to be careful not to push
Speaker 1: it overboard. Harriel, thank you so much for being with us.
Speaker 1: Ariel Count, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council,