WEBVTT - Ariel Cohen on China (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Uh and joining us as aerial co and senior fellow

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<v Speaker 1>at Atlantic Council to discuss the latest developments on China,

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<v Speaker 1>and not just of course about zero COVID, but of

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<v Speaker 1>course geo politics here as well. I mean, we still

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<v Speaker 1>protest this time last week, Errol, and it seems the

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<v Speaker 1>Communist Party paid heed. Indeed they're lifting the most severe restrictions,

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<v Speaker 1>but those who protested would be identified and probably arrested

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<v Speaker 1>and punished. This is a high tech totalitarian society and

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<v Speaker 1>it is not going to evolve anytime soon as long

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<v Speaker 1>as converte Seizing Pain is in charge. And now he

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<v Speaker 1>secured his rule for the foreseeable future. The level of

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<v Speaker 1>protests so far does not indicate that they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be structural reforms politically. The big challenge I think for

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<v Speaker 1>for see is after he destroyed UM main Chinese companies

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<v Speaker 1>UM to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>is he going to be a retreat and allow the

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<v Speaker 1>economy to build itself back. I am not so sure

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<v Speaker 1>so far. So has he broken the social contract with

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<v Speaker 1>the citizens of the mainland. A lot of Chinese observers

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<v Speaker 1>and analysts say that yes he did, because the social

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<v Speaker 1>contract was that the quality of life and g d

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<v Speaker 1>P per cabinet were growing up and up, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>not happening anymore. Whereas the internal oppression, be it um

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<v Speaker 1>UH in the virtual Chinese Internet realm or in the

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<v Speaker 1>street with the pulvid restrictions. Uh, those um restrictions, we're

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<v Speaker 1>getting worse. And we saw the outpouring of um UH

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<v Speaker 1>public morning for the leader who was a more liberal one,

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<v Speaker 1>Senza Mink who passed away the age of ninety six. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>The leader who was appointed in fact after um Tiana

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<v Speaker 1>man Um protest, who was not a sweetheart but relative decision.

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<v Speaker 1>Think he was much more liberal. Yeah, okay, sure we've

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<v Speaker 1>got that. But let's take a look at what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on in terms of China in a geopolitical sense here,

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<v Speaker 1>and they try to back away a little bit from

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine or should I say Russia's giving Russia support in

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<v Speaker 1>that war. They've dialed that back a little bit, But

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<v Speaker 1>the Taiwan question remains open. And the thing is nationalism

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<v Speaker 1>can of course be the refuge of a scoundrel. Well

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<v Speaker 1>it is, and clearly in is meeting with President Biden,

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<v Speaker 1>j Ping did not back off the Taiwan question. We

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<v Speaker 1>saw the qualming tom party UM winning in the local

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<v Speaker 1>elections in Taiwan, and that's a party that still speaks

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<v Speaker 1>about unification with China. Uh So, I think the best

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<v Speaker 1>we can hope for is that there's no military clash

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<v Speaker 1>over Taiwan anytime soon, and the differences and disagreements are

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<v Speaker 1>resolved in a diplomatic way. However, the long term vector

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<v Speaker 1>of China getting stronger, China building its military, and the

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<v Speaker 1>US facing very serious challenges in terms of our ability

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<v Speaker 1>to conduct two military operations, one in Europe, uh god

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<v Speaker 1>forbid it escalates in Ukraine, and another one in the Pacific.

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<v Speaker 1>We do not have the military resources, the money, the technology,

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<v Speaker 1>technology o based to conduct two wars, and we need

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<v Speaker 1>to be very careful how we UM conduct our foreign

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<v Speaker 1>policy and our military posture in Russia. So Ariel at

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<v Speaker 1>the beginning of the Party Congress President chiefs speech, at

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<v Speaker 1>least in the view of analyst, was kind of um.

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<v Speaker 1>It came away, you came or the listener came away

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<v Speaker 1>with this sense that it was much more inwardly focused.

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<v Speaker 1>And here we have, according to Reuters, she traveling to

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<v Speaker 1>Saudi Arabia at the end of the week. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>how are we to understand the role that she sees

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<v Speaker 1>himself playing on the world stage going forward. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>fascinating question. I think after he secured the domestic power,

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<v Speaker 1>or he heals that his power now is formally in

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<v Speaker 1>his shrine. He opened UH an enormous um campaign of

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<v Speaker 1>foreign activities he met with when he won foreign leaders

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<v Speaker 1>in the last three months or so, from Finland to

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<v Speaker 1>New Zealand, UM, Australia, UH, the Bali meeting. He is

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<v Speaker 1>very active, and it's interesting that he's going to Saudi

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<v Speaker 1>Arabia because UH to secure the Chinese energy supply is

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<v Speaker 1>a paramount challenge for any Chinese leader, and with the

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<v Speaker 1>Saudis UH feeling myths and distancing themselves from the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>There are many problems between the Biden administration and Prince

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<v Speaker 1>Mohammed bin Salman. Um. The Chinese will step into that vacuum,

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<v Speaker 1>as they did with Iran. By the way, there's a

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<v Speaker 1>huge three hundred billion dollars over thirty year investment package

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<v Speaker 1>between Beijing and Tehran. UH. Jing and Moscow both support

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<v Speaker 1>the press of Iranian leadership in what they're doing to

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<v Speaker 1>their own people. So the competition from the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>to Africa to Russia will continue area very quickly here

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<v Speaker 1>as well. What about the impact of the Chips Act.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, how damaging is that for the Chinese economy.

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<v Speaker 1>It's very damaging. I talked to a number of experts

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<v Speaker 1>at a conference in Paris where I was recently, and

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<v Speaker 1>people are saying that this, these limitations on US experts

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<v Speaker 1>to China devastating. People warned that they may be a

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<v Speaker 1>trigger to a quick deterioration in the U. S. China relations,

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<v Speaker 1>and again we have to be careful not to push

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<v Speaker 1>it overboard. Harriel, thank you so much for being with us.

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<v Speaker 1>Ariel Count, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council,