WEBVTT - Wingstop Expanding Globally, Aims To Be A Top Ten Brand: CEO

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm pim Fox.

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<v Speaker 1>Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we

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<v Speaker 1>bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for

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<v Speaker 1>you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store

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<v Speaker 1>or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P M L

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot Com. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>if you wanted like to know how many chicken wings

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be consumed during the Super Bowl weekend,

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<v Speaker 1>look no further than the National Chicken Council's annual report.

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<v Speaker 1>Americans are set to eat one point three three billion

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<v Speaker 1>chicken wings and is actually up to from these numbers,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, for twenties seventeen. One point three billion chicken

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<v Speaker 1>wings is a lot of chicken. In Here to tell

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<v Speaker 1>us how it all happens is Charlie Morrison is the

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<v Speaker 1>chairman and the chief executive of wing Stop and also

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<v Speaker 1>joining us here in studio Stacy Peterson, the chief experience

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<v Speaker 1>officer for Wingstop, and they are in our New York

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<v Speaker 1>studios coming from Dallas. All right, Charlie, one point three

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<v Speaker 1>billion chicken wings that it's a little hard to comprehend, right, Now,

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<v Speaker 1>how did you get into this? You, I know have

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<v Speaker 1>done stints at Boston Market. Pizza was also in your past.

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<v Speaker 1>How did you combine all of this to bring it

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<v Speaker 1>to Wingstop? Well, I was honored with the opportunity to

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<v Speaker 1>lead this brand about six years ago when I started

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<v Speaker 1>with wing Stop, and it's a brand that's been around

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<v Speaker 1>since the mid nineties, was founded in the Dallas Fort

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<v Speaker 1>Worth area where we're headquartered, and we realized what a

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<v Speaker 1>great opportunity we had in front of us. We are

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<v Speaker 1>all about this. Capital came in this. This is right

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<v Speaker 1>when Capital came in and then you joined the because

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<v Speaker 1>they thought you would be good to do this. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>well that's that they thought, and so far, so good.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh yeah. We so wings as a center of the

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<v Speaker 1>plate item where something was something that was really not

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<v Speaker 1>thought of many years ago. But now you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the success of this brand and the fact that people

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<v Speaker 1>are passionate about wings. It is great for the Super Bowl,

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<v Speaker 1>will sell probably fourteen to fifteen million wings just on

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<v Speaker 1>that day alone. But really it's an occasion item for

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<v Speaker 1>anybody for any eating occasion. What okay, you gave me

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<v Speaker 1>the number of of wings. Can you put that into

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<v Speaker 1>some context in terms of compared to a normal weekend

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<v Speaker 1>or other holidays, that may make that more popular. Sure,

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<v Speaker 1>in some cases we'll do as much business on that

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<v Speaker 1>day as we might do in an entire week on

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<v Speaker 1>average for the chain. So it is our biggest day

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<v Speaker 1>of the year, one of the very big days, uh

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<v Speaker 1>for Wingstop. Wings are the number one consumed item for

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<v Speaker 1>the Super Bowl, and UH we're one of the largest

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<v Speaker 1>chains out there that's providing access to those for our

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<v Speaker 1>for our fans. Stacy Peterson, come in for just a

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<v Speaker 1>second and tell us about the uh the new ways

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<v Speaker 1>in which people can consume their food. One of them

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<v Speaker 1>is using the Alexa voice ordering system. Tell us about

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<v Speaker 1>that venture and how you put that together. That's right.

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<v Speaker 1>Digital ordering has been a focus for us, and last

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<v Speaker 1>year we really tried to extend the convenience to our guests.

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<v Speaker 1>So instead of requiring them to download our app, which

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<v Speaker 1>they can do, we decided to bring ordering to them.

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<v Speaker 1>So if they're on Facebook, Messenger, Twitter, Messenger, Alexa, even

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<v Speaker 1>now GM, on Star Marketplace, they can order ring wings

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<v Speaker 1>directly from the apps or platforms that they choose to

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<v Speaker 1>be on. Okay, but I'm just curious, was there a

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<v Speaker 1>just a little insight into the negotiation, because you know,

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<v Speaker 1>people may be listening and thinking, gee, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>have a product I'd like to figure out how to

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<v Speaker 1>get included in the Alexa artificial intelligence world. What were

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<v Speaker 1>those conversations like, what were some of the concerns and

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<v Speaker 1>what were some of the challenges. Well, for us, integration

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<v Speaker 1>as a challenge. We want our franchise operators when an

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<v Speaker 1>order comes through any digital channel to look the same,

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<v Speaker 1>feel the same. We don't want them to care where

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<v Speaker 1>it came from. And so integrating that into our point

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<v Speaker 1>of sale where at the restaurant they have a consistent process,

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<v Speaker 1>was really key to us unleashing all of these platforms.

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<v Speaker 1>And is the data that is put together and and

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<v Speaker 1>stored about the customer? I mean, is that data the

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<v Speaker 1>thing can be used for ordering U you know, ordering

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<v Speaker 1>and as well as supply chain operation. That's right, there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot that we can learn from our customers um

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<v Speaker 1>and understand more of their behavior so that we can

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<v Speaker 1>be more relevant to them. All right, Charlie, the menu

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<v Speaker 1>at the wing stop. I understand that many analysts say

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that it's simple is positive for the company.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you speak to that. I think that's a testament

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<v Speaker 1>to any great restaurant concept is to keep it simple,

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<v Speaker 1>especially in today's focused environment where you have menus that

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<v Speaker 1>are focused on certain products. That's what we love about Wingstop.

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<v Speaker 1>We have chicken wings, fries, and sides that makes up

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<v Speaker 1>what we sell. Since our founding in we started with

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<v Speaker 1>eight flavors and added three over the years. We we

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<v Speaker 1>really innovate, as Stacy talked about, through technology more so

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<v Speaker 1>than we do through flavors and products, and we think

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<v Speaker 1>that's the way restaurants are gonna be well positioned into

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<v Speaker 1>the future. You've also got an initiative outside the United

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<v Speaker 1>States franchising there. Tell us about that. Yeah, we operate

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<v Speaker 1>in nine countries around the world today with signed agreements

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<v Speaker 1>for thirteen total countries, a little over one hundred restaurants

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<v Speaker 1>and growing very rapidly. We believe that this will position

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<v Speaker 1>this brand to be a top ten global brand ultimately

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<v Speaker 1>one day in the future. Because chicken and chicken wings

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<v Speaker 1>are the most consumed protein all around the world. What

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<v Speaker 1>about the cost of the prices, They're pretty comparable now,

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<v Speaker 1>they're pretty comparable. Last year was a tough year in

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<v Speaker 1>the US for chicken wings, the commodity spiked, but outside

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<v Speaker 1>the US very similar economics to what we see here.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we going to get kiosks in more and more

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<v Speaker 1>Wingstop restaurant location? Stacy, Quite possible. We would love to

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<v Speaker 1>um expedite and automate the pickup experience, so along with Chios,

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<v Speaker 1>we could envision a day where you order digitally, You

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<v Speaker 1>get a message sent to you that your order is ready,

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<v Speaker 1>and you pick it up from a locker, get a

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<v Speaker 1>code you scan in, you lock our opens, you take

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<v Speaker 1>your food and go. So we'd like to continue that

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<v Speaker 1>digital experience inside the restaurant. Thanks very much for being

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<v Speaker 1>with us. Stacy Peterson is a chief experience officer and

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<v Speaker 1>Charlie Morrison is the chairman and the chief executive of

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<v Speaker 1>Wingstop Oil. Oil prices down by about a half a

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<v Speaker 1>percent right now on the NI Max w t I

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<v Speaker 1>trades at sixty four dollars and thirteen cents of barrel.

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<v Speaker 1>You're to tell us more about the world of energy.

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<v Speaker 1>Is Javier Blass, our chief energy correspondent for Bloomberg Intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>and he joins us from London, and you can follow

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<v Speaker 1>Javier on Twitter at Javier Blass two. All right, Javier

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<v Speaker 1>Blast too. Before we get to oil, I just want

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<v Speaker 1>you to maybe speak a little bit about a photo that,

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<v Speaker 1>courtesy of your handiwork, I was able to see on

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter having to do with Davos and the crowd that

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<v Speaker 1>was looking to get into the main hall where President

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump eventually gave his speech. Can you just tell

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<v Speaker 1>me a little bit about that. I was hoping that

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<v Speaker 1>you have forgotten about it, not at all. I thought

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<v Speaker 1>that was really something because the crush of people to

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<v Speaker 1>get in, as you described it, I think is sort

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<v Speaker 1>of like a rock concert. Yeah, it was about an

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<v Speaker 1>hour before President Trump was delivering in this speech that

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<v Speaker 1>the word gonna before in double Switzerland. And I have

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<v Speaker 1>been in many doubles meetings, and I have never seen

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<v Speaker 1>that lobby area in front of the Congress Hall where

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<v Speaker 1>all the biggest speeches happened. Uh so pack an hour

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<v Speaker 1>before I speech, and I have seen people like Macron Mercal,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you don't see that. And and it kind

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<v Speaker 1>of felt almost like a few year backs, as would

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<v Speaker 1>say a couple of decades back, being a teenager and

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<v Speaker 1>going to a rock concert, and you know, all the

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<v Speaker 1>teenagers just being uh together, crashing into the doors. And

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<v Speaker 1>so I tweeted that, you know, it was quite extraordinary

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<v Speaker 1>and I felt like um teenagers going into a concert.

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<v Speaker 1>But the main difference is were CEOs and billionaires sort

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<v Speaker 1>of the most powerful men and woman on the planet

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<v Speaker 1>in the in the world of business. I'm fine, and

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<v Speaker 1>so that was quite something. And to my surprise, I

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<v Speaker 1>was actually sleeping overnight the President trauma. I supposed it

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<v Speaker 1>was on Air Force one. So the tweets somehow and retweeted,

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<v Speaker 1>and then I wake up with about twenty five notifications

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<v Speaker 1>on my Twitter timeline. To my shock, Well, all right,

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<v Speaker 1>so that that you become a sort of a Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>poster a child. You know, every utterance is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be picked over. So be careful here when we talk

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<v Speaker 1>about energy. And maybe we can kind of link this

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<v Speaker 1>to a President Arnold Trump, because one of his h signature,

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<v Speaker 1>uh sort of perspectives is to allow more drilling in

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<v Speaker 1>the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, to push more drilling off

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<v Speaker 1>the coast of the United States, both the East and

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<v Speaker 1>the West coast. And also he's been a big cheerleader

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<v Speaker 1>for domestic oil production. What is the change in US

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<v Speaker 1>oil production doing to global investments? What what we have

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<v Speaker 1>seen is the US production almost at ten million bars

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<v Speaker 1>a day. That's the highest since nineteen seventy. Actually, US

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<v Speaker 1>production is just within a whisker of that level. It

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<v Speaker 1>was put today by the Energy Information Administration, that's the

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<v Speaker 1>statistical arm of the Department of Energy at nine point

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<v Speaker 1>nine two million bars a day. So it's just gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be ten million bars a day within the next two

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<v Speaker 1>or three weeks. And and that is what is being

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<v Speaker 1>UH distrolled by President Trump of Energy Dominance Act. Only

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<v Speaker 1>President Tim probably has done very little for for achieving

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<v Speaker 1>these ten million barrels a day. The stay is deregulating

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<v Speaker 1>the industry and is lower in taxes, but I would

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<v Speaker 1>not have an impact until probably a few months. For now,

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<v Speaker 1>with the taxation, probably we can see more investment, and

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<v Speaker 1>certainly the the regulation of the sector and allowing UM

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<v Speaker 1>drilling offshore of the United States. That's gonna takes if

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<v Speaker 1>not DKs to increase production of the country. But certainly

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<v Speaker 1>we have seen a big increase in UH production in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States, and that's one of the reasons that

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<v Speaker 1>despite all the efforts but opened by cutting production, we

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<v Speaker 1>still see oil prices really struggling to break new ground.

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<v Speaker 1>And we saw Bram prices that the European benchmark jumping

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<v Speaker 1>about seventy dollars, but that was really short lived because

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<v Speaker 1>people are starting to pay attention that while Opak is

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<v Speaker 1>cutting production on sale, producers in Texas and elsewhere in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States are really ramping output. All right, So

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<v Speaker 1>what does that tell you about a forecast? Is it

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<v Speaker 1>just difficult to predict what I mean? I'm it's always

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<v Speaker 1>difficult to predict with the future price of anything's gonna be.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're gonna get results from Royal Dutch Shell tomorrow

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll also get results from Chevron and Exxon for

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<v Speaker 1>the remainder of the week. What can you tell us

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<v Speaker 1>about the future oil prices? Well, I think that we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to have very good results for for the three

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<v Speaker 1>companies that you mentioned. We have Royal Dutch Shell reporting

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<v Speaker 1>before the opening of the market tomorrow morning here in London,

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<v Speaker 1>and we have Excellent and Chevron doing likewise before the

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<v Speaker 1>opening of the market in New York on Friday. Uh

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<v Speaker 1>Q force would be a good month for all the

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<v Speaker 1>oil companies. Prices where up. We have good production number

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<v Speaker 1>from everyone, so I'm expecting that probably where on a

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<v Speaker 1>quarterly basis, probably we're gonna see the strongest quarter since

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<v Speaker 1>at least meet two thousand and fourteen in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>oil prices. For two thousand and eighteen, clearly we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>a big push towards the upside from opeque production cuts

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<v Speaker 1>led by Saudi Arabia with his cutting even more than

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<v Speaker 1>he said that he was gonna do. But at the

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<v Speaker 1>same time, we're gonna have a ceiling from the ushil

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<v Speaker 1>producers which they're gonna really pump a lot more oil

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<v Speaker 1>that probably the market was expecting only two or three

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<v Speaker 1>or four months ago. So probably what we're gonna see

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<v Speaker 1>prices in a in a very narrow range, probably with

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<v Speaker 1>a sixty dollar floor because of open production cards. But

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<v Speaker 1>any any time that we go about seventy maybe seventy

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<v Speaker 1>five dollars for brain, we're gonna see a huge incentive

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<v Speaker 1>for US producer producers to to to pump more, and

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<v Speaker 1>uncertainly the price will be capped there. Thank you very

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<v Speaker 1>much for being with us. Javier Blast is our chief

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<v Speaker 1>energy correspondent for Bloomberg Intelligence. You can follow him on

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter at Javier Blast two, and you can also check

0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:42.559
<v Speaker 1>out his photographs from his attendance at the Dollar's World

0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:48.199
<v Speaker 1>Economic form last week. Interesting photographs and some images of

0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:51.720
<v Speaker 1>the excitement that was generated by the arrival and the

0:12:51.800 --> 0:13:09.960
<v Speaker 1>speech of President Donald Trump. Well, if you're thinking about

0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.760
<v Speaker 1>purchasing an automobile or a vehicle, chances are you should

0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:16.160
<v Speaker 1>place a call to Scott Painter. He is the founder

0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 1>of Fair, but he's also the former founder of True Car,

0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:23.800
<v Speaker 1>and he has a history in the automobile industry as

0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:28.000
<v Speaker 1>a disruptor, and he joins us now from Santa Monica. Scott,

0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.160
<v Speaker 1>thank you very much for being with us. Maybe just

0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:32.880
<v Speaker 1>give people a little bit of your the short bio,

0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:37.560
<v Speaker 1>because you've been doing this since you were in school. Well,

0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:42.280
<v Speaker 1>I've definitely been focused on trying to improve the way

0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:46.240
<v Speaker 1>that we all buy in Shop four and ultimately owned cars.

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:50.960
<v Speaker 1>So what we've created, it Fair, is an app that

0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 1>represents a totally new way to get a car. It's digital,

0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:58.200
<v Speaker 1>it's all on your phone, it's completely flexible, and that

0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.760
<v Speaker 1>customers can actually see the car they want and walk

0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:05.720
<v Speaker 1>away without a commitment to a long term purchase decision

0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:09.280
<v Speaker 1>or ownership contract, and it's designed to be simple. What

0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 1>we offer is an all in monthly payment that provides

0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:17.840
<v Speaker 1>the car a warranty, roadside assistance, standard maintenance, and we

0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:21.120
<v Speaker 1>even now offer month to month auto insurance. So it's

0:14:21.240 --> 0:14:23.200
<v Speaker 1>designed to be sort of like an iTunes account for

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:26.200
<v Speaker 1>your car. Is it similar to a long term rental

0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:29.600
<v Speaker 1>or even a short term rental for an automobile? Yeah,

0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 1>it's not a rental agreement, it's not a lease. It

0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.800
<v Speaker 1>was created with a deep understanding of how both work.

0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:39.680
<v Speaker 1>It is an entirely new type of contract. It's really um.

0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:45.000
<v Speaker 1>It represents a new way to get access to mobility. Um.

0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:51.080
<v Speaker 1>It's clear that modern customers want simplicity, savings and flexibility, alright,

0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.920
<v Speaker 1>But having having that in mind, what can you walk

0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:58.200
<v Speaker 1>us through what exactly happens? Because you mentioned that are

0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:00.720
<v Speaker 1>you've got an app on your phone you'd like to

0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:04.240
<v Speaker 1>drive from where you are a Santa Monica. I don't

0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:08.760
<v Speaker 1>know to uh, San Diego? What happens when you pick

0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:11.480
<v Speaker 1>up your phone? Sure, the way that the app works

0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:13.360
<v Speaker 1>is as soon as you download the app, it does

0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:16.560
<v Speaker 1>ask you to scan your driver's license because you're going

0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:19.840
<v Speaker 1>to be driving our vehicle and you need to be

0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 1>a registered legal driver, and so we're looking to actually

0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:28.200
<v Speaker 1>validate your driver's license. We're also looking for ability to repay,

0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:30.920
<v Speaker 1>So unlike a car loan or at lease where you

0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 1>actually have to have good credit or a long payment history.

0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:36.400
<v Speaker 1>As long as we can detect that you have the

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 1>ability to repay or to afford the car, we go

0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.320
<v Speaker 1>ahead and digitally link you either to your bank account

0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:46.240
<v Speaker 1>or a credit card, and then you begin to subscribe

0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:49.200
<v Speaker 1>effectively to that car. And so you're shopping from cars

0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 1>that are all for sale at local dealers, and we're

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.240
<v Speaker 1>simply a better way to get that car. And we're

0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:58.520
<v Speaker 1>an alternative to traditional financing in the sense that we

0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:02.120
<v Speaker 1>are not lend you money. We're just giving you access

0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:04.440
<v Speaker 1>to the car that you want. Once you select the

0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:07.560
<v Speaker 1>vehicle inside the app, you can either have that vehicle

0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 1>brought to you or you can pick it up at

0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:13.800
<v Speaker 1>your local dealership. But the entire process happens digitally in

0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:16.160
<v Speaker 1>the app. In fact, you even signed the agreement with

0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.080
<v Speaker 1>your finger. There's no negotiating with a dealer or no

0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:23.240
<v Speaker 1>back and forth or confrontation. We effectively buy the car

0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:28.680
<v Speaker 1>and simultaneously provided to you through that new agreement. What

0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:31.240
<v Speaker 1>is what is your venture with Uber? How is that

0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:35.440
<v Speaker 1>tied together? Well, what we're announcing today is that we

0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:40.800
<v Speaker 1>have completed the acquisition of Uber's exchange leasing portfolio and

0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:44.680
<v Speaker 1>entered into an exclusive partnership with Uber on a national basis.

0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.600
<v Speaker 1>And it turns out that Uber drivers are just like

0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:52.880
<v Speaker 1>modern consumers. They also want the same simplicity, savings and flexibility,

0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:56.360
<v Speaker 1>and so we provide Uber the technology so that if

0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:58.760
<v Speaker 1>you're an Uber driver and you download the Uber app

0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:01.840
<v Speaker 1>and you indicate that you don't have a vehicle, that's

0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:06.000
<v Speaker 1>when you'll be introduced to Fair going forward. But Uber

0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:08.640
<v Speaker 1>has a community of drivers that they have been supporting

0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:11.600
<v Speaker 1>for the last two or three years with a leasing

0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:16.040
<v Speaker 1>program that allows drivers to get into these vehicles, and

0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:18.920
<v Speaker 1>we have acquired that entire business from Uber and we're

0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 1>now their go forward partner to provide those drivers with

0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:25.600
<v Speaker 1>that flexible option. And it really is about an extension

0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:28.760
<v Speaker 1>of their commitment to their driver community, and it allows

0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.760
<v Speaker 1>Uber to be focused on its core competency, which is

0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:36.159
<v Speaker 1>growing ridesharing, and it allows Fair and the expert on

0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:38.560
<v Speaker 1>our team to focus on our core competency, which is

0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:42.439
<v Speaker 1>really providing these kind of flexible ownership options through a

0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:48.000
<v Speaker 1>totally digital platform. Scott, how much does this cost? Well? Traditionally,

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:51.439
<v Speaker 1>Uber drivers today are either renting or leasing vehicles. This

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:56.080
<v Speaker 1>represents about a fifty savings over a traditional rental. Now

0:17:56.119 --> 0:18:00.280
<v Speaker 1>that's if you're if you're an uber driver. Well that

0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.120
<v Speaker 1>whether you're an Uber driver renting a car, or whether

0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:05.040
<v Speaker 1>you're a consumer renting a car. Okay, all right, I

0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:07.200
<v Speaker 1>just wanted to make it make that clear. So for example,

0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:09.879
<v Speaker 1>let's say you wanted to drive from Santa Santa Monica

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:12.720
<v Speaker 1>down to San Diego. What does it cost to actually

0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:17.640
<v Speaker 1>complete this transaction just quickly? Well, so our cars are

0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:21.439
<v Speaker 1>really for longer term use. So we're really building the

0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:23.680
<v Speaker 1>product so that consumers can keep the car for as

0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:25.480
<v Speaker 1>long or as little bit. Okay, let's say you wanted

0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 1>it four months. Just give me a figure. Yeah, so

0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:30.280
<v Speaker 1>it would be about half the cost of a rental.

0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:32.320
<v Speaker 1>So traditionally, if you were going to rent a car

0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:34.040
<v Speaker 1>for a month that you were going to use for

0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:37.080
<v Speaker 1>right sharing, there might be a hundred and fifty dollars

0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:40.199
<v Speaker 1>a week, so maybe four a month. This is going

0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:42.600
<v Speaker 1>to be half of that. And we got to leave

0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:45.240
<v Speaker 1>it there. We got to leave it there. Scott Painter,

0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:47.560
<v Speaker 1>thank you very much. He is the founder of Fair.

0:18:47.960 --> 0:19:04.680
<v Speaker 1>They're based in Santa Monica. Well, coming up today, we've

0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:08.359
<v Speaker 1>got the results from Facebook as well as Microsoft. Tomorrow

0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:11.720
<v Speaker 1>will be getting earnings from Apple and Alphabet as well

0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:14.040
<v Speaker 1>as Amazon. And here to help us understand what we

0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:17.200
<v Speaker 1>can expect is Michael Scanlon. He his portfolio manager for

0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:21.000
<v Speaker 1>Manu Life Asset Management. He's based in Boston, home to

0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:24.439
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg one oh six one Boston, Newburyport and thirty in

0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:27.879
<v Speaker 1>Metro West and the South Shore. Michael, great to have

0:19:27.920 --> 0:19:30.520
<v Speaker 1>you with us. Let's begin with Facebook if we can.

0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:33.159
<v Speaker 1>This is a company that at least an annual terms,

0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:37.600
<v Speaker 1>is doing thirty six billion in revenue and putting fifteen

0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:41.080
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars in its pocket. That's the net income. Tell

0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:45.120
<v Speaker 1>us what you look for from Facebook? Well, good morning

0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:47.359
<v Speaker 1>and thanks for having me. I think with Facebook, you

0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:50.679
<v Speaker 1>know expectations that results are going to be strong again tonight.

0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:53.320
<v Speaker 1>I think probably more of the focus will actually be

0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:56.600
<v Speaker 1>on the commentary that's given on the call, just in

0:19:56.720 --> 0:19:58.880
<v Speaker 1>light of some of the announcements they made a couple

0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:02.439
<v Speaker 1>of weeks back in terms of de emphasizing third party

0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:06.480
<v Speaker 1>in more emphasizing people's personal network of posts. Well, this

0:20:06.520 --> 0:20:09.200
<v Speaker 1>will be what to get them to stay more frequently

0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:11.479
<v Speaker 1>is to have a longer period of time that they

0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:15.360
<v Speaker 1>would stay on Facebook, and also to blunt the criticism

0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:19.280
<v Speaker 1>having to do with news and information that is perhaps

0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:23.520
<v Speaker 1>not the real or is not backed by anyone who

0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:28.960
<v Speaker 1>actually knows anything about the topics they're they're posting about exactly. Yeah.

0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:31.080
<v Speaker 1>So you know, the argument here is if if you're

0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:33.320
<v Speaker 1>in the bull camp on Facebook, which we own the

0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:36.600
<v Speaker 1>stock and the John Hancock Balance Fund, is that the

0:20:37.000 --> 0:20:40.200
<v Speaker 1>any decline in terms of just adload that you're seeing

0:20:40.200 --> 0:20:43.240
<v Speaker 1>on there will be offset by positive pricing. And you know,

0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:45.119
<v Speaker 1>if they're reducing the amount of space that they have

0:20:45.119 --> 0:20:48.119
<v Speaker 1>available to advertisers, that ultimately the price of that advertising

0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:51.960
<v Speaker 1>should increase in opted any decline in terms of growth

0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:55.200
<v Speaker 1>and adlade. Okay, alright, so that's Facebook. Turn your attention

0:20:55.240 --> 0:20:58.119
<v Speaker 1>now to Microsoft. They were talking about a one billion

0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:03.360
<v Speaker 1>dollar revenue company. They do twenty six billion dollars in profit.

0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:07.800
<v Speaker 1>What are you looking for with Microsoft? With Microsoft, the

0:21:07.840 --> 0:21:10.840
<v Speaker 1>focus continues to be on this transition, which you know

0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:15.520
<v Speaker 1>really gains steam. One. Sofia Nadela came into power Microsoft,

0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:18.320
<v Speaker 1>taking over the ce role CEO role from Steve Balmer

0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:20.960
<v Speaker 1>uh in that you know, it's this whole transition of

0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:24.160
<v Speaker 1>the cloud. Right. Their commercial cloud business is outperformed every

0:21:24.160 --> 0:21:27.520
<v Speaker 1>metric that the company has laid out that the analyst

0:21:27.560 --> 0:21:30.119
<v Speaker 1>community was expecting, and it continues to be on a

0:21:30.160 --> 0:21:33.159
<v Speaker 1>really strong growth trajectory. So I think people will be

0:21:33.240 --> 0:21:35.920
<v Speaker 1>continued to focus on what the revenue growth trajectory looks

0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:37.960
<v Speaker 1>like there and just with a margin profile and the

0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:40.399
<v Speaker 1>commercial cloud business looks like. Do you think that there

0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:43.000
<v Speaker 1>will be any interest in an increase in the dividend.

0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:48.840
<v Speaker 1>The dividend now is about one Microsoft, so not as

0:21:48.960 --> 0:21:52.720
<v Speaker 1>much focused on the dividend, you know, with this tax

0:21:52.760 --> 0:21:55.960
<v Speaker 1>reform package that we're getting in, obviously, Microsoft and a

0:21:56.000 --> 0:21:57.879
<v Speaker 1>lot of the other big cap tech names which you

0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:01.080
<v Speaker 1>mentioned in the introduction are primary beneficiaries here where it's

0:22:01.080 --> 0:22:02.439
<v Speaker 1>going to free up a lot of cash that they

0:22:02.440 --> 0:22:05.199
<v Speaker 1>can put to work. So with Microsoft, there is some

0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:09.720
<v Speaker 1>expectation that they will increase the repurchase authorization or the

0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:12.000
<v Speaker 1>regular amount of buy back that they've been doing, which

0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:14.520
<v Speaker 1>will will be a nice incremental tail one for the stock.

0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:17.000
<v Speaker 1>All right, Well, the shares of Microsoft right now, they're

0:22:17.080 --> 0:22:20.040
<v Speaker 1>up at dollar four. The stock has gained nearly ten

0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:24.040
<v Speaker 1>so far this year, all right, look forward to tomorrow.

0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:26.800
<v Speaker 1>Would you like to begin with Apple, the iPhone maker,

0:22:26.840 --> 0:22:31.440
<v Speaker 1>because they'll be reporting their results tomorrow. So surprisingly, you know,

0:22:31.440 --> 0:22:33.639
<v Speaker 1>the last handful of weeks here, there have been some

0:22:33.800 --> 0:22:36.800
<v Speaker 1>negative supply chain data points that have been coming out

0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:42.840
<v Speaker 1>in commentaries around iPhone X builds. Apple's stock is underperformed

0:22:42.840 --> 0:22:45.880
<v Speaker 1>tech more recently. You know, it continues to be very

0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:50.360
<v Speaker 1>attractively valued. They they're obviously investing a lot with the

0:22:50.480 --> 0:22:53.080
<v Speaker 1>data that with the release they put out after the

0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:56.919
<v Speaker 1>tax reform package. But from a total return perspective, you know,

0:22:56.960 --> 0:22:59.640
<v Speaker 1>you're getting a very nice buy back in thirty five

0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:02.439
<v Speaker 1>plus billion a year plus the dividends, so you're kind

0:23:02.440 --> 0:23:05.239
<v Speaker 1>of getting a six percent type capital return before they

0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:08.119
<v Speaker 1>grow their net income or the multiple gets rerated higher.

0:23:08.280 --> 0:23:11.400
<v Speaker 1>So we still like Apple in the portfolio. Um, and

0:23:11.520 --> 0:23:13.679
<v Speaker 1>you know, again the commentary will be interesting with some

0:23:13.760 --> 0:23:17.040
<v Speaker 1>of these negative data points. Indeed, Apple shares down about

0:23:17.119 --> 0:23:20.200
<v Speaker 1>one percent in the month of January. And just to note,

0:23:20.200 --> 0:23:23.040
<v Speaker 1>here's the scale, right, two hundred and twenty nine billion

0:23:23.119 --> 0:23:27.080
<v Speaker 1>dollars in sales, and they may have a profit of

0:23:27.200 --> 0:23:31.080
<v Speaker 1>forty eight billion, and they sell hardware. That's a kind

0:23:31.080 --> 0:23:33.960
<v Speaker 1>of amazing as the Yeah, and not only that, you

0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:36.159
<v Speaker 1>look at the stock price or so the stocks at

0:23:36.160 --> 0:23:38.520
<v Speaker 1>about a hundred and sixty six dollars on a net

0:23:38.560 --> 0:23:41.200
<v Speaker 1>cash basis, they have just under thirty dollars per share

0:23:41.200 --> 0:23:44.439
<v Speaker 1>and net cash. So this stock trades at a you know,

0:23:44.760 --> 0:23:47.040
<v Speaker 1>four point five point discount to the S and P

0:23:47.240 --> 0:23:49.720
<v Speaker 1>five hundred uh and even more than that if you

0:23:49.760 --> 0:23:51.639
<v Speaker 1>were to adjust for the cash, which you know, more

0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:54.160
<v Speaker 1>and more that should be coming back to shareholders. Why

0:23:54.160 --> 0:23:56.320
<v Speaker 1>do you think that it trades at this discount? I mean,

0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:59.359
<v Speaker 1>is it always because there's the footnote or the asterisk

0:23:59.480 --> 0:24:01.479
<v Speaker 1>that says, you know, they rely so much on the

0:24:01.520 --> 0:24:06.800
<v Speaker 1>iPhone and YadA, YadA, YadA. It's exactly that. And there's

0:24:06.840 --> 0:24:10.360
<v Speaker 1>cycles within the iPhone. This iPhone XT cycle is expected

0:24:10.400 --> 0:24:14.000
<v Speaker 1>to be a very big refresh cycle. Uh So there's

0:24:14.000 --> 0:24:17.359
<v Speaker 1>a bit more not maybe boom bust isn't it the

0:24:17.440 --> 0:24:19.520
<v Speaker 1>right description for it. But from year to year, there

0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:22.119
<v Speaker 1>is a bit of a bump and drop in earnings,

0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:25.239
<v Speaker 1>uh at the net income level, just because of the

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:27.840
<v Speaker 1>units that are sold. I mean, most people refresh their

0:24:27.840 --> 0:24:30.520
<v Speaker 1>phone and kind of a two year basis. Uh. Such,

0:24:30.640 --> 0:24:32.840
<v Speaker 1>just a little bit of an up and down, which

0:24:33.200 --> 0:24:35.640
<v Speaker 1>you know results on a lower multiple. Okay, let's turn

0:24:35.680 --> 0:24:38.960
<v Speaker 1>your attention to Alphabet. Now, Alphabet, of course the parent

0:24:39.040 --> 0:24:42.239
<v Speaker 1>company of Google, talking about a hundred billion dollar a

0:24:42.240 --> 0:24:46.600
<v Speaker 1>company that has about a quarter of that as profit,

0:24:46.680 --> 0:24:49.840
<v Speaker 1>twenty three billion dollars worth of profit on an annual basis.

0:24:49.880 --> 0:24:53.199
<v Speaker 1>What are you going to look for from Google? So

0:24:53.320 --> 0:24:56.480
<v Speaker 1>Google continues to be our largest position in the portfolio.

0:24:57.200 --> 0:24:59.439
<v Speaker 1>You know, when you look at this company, there just

0:24:59.480 --> 0:25:02.680
<v Speaker 1>seems to be be a very clear runway to north

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:07.760
<v Speaker 1>of FX neutral revenue growth going forward. Uh, there's still

0:25:08.359 --> 0:25:11.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, broadly speaking, a tremendous amount of global advertising

0:25:11.680 --> 0:25:14.919
<v Speaker 1>that is still in traditional forms be a TV print

0:25:15.720 --> 0:25:18.199
<v Speaker 1>that needs to come digital, and you know, name like

0:25:18.240 --> 0:25:20.879
<v Speaker 1>Google is going to be a primary beneficiary there. Obviously

0:25:20.960 --> 0:25:23.879
<v Speaker 1>there'll be some others as well. Um, but for Google

0:25:23.920 --> 0:25:26.119
<v Speaker 1>to continue to grow on this north of a hundred

0:25:26.119 --> 0:25:30.200
<v Speaker 1>billion dollar base of revenues, it's just extraordinary. And when

0:25:30.200 --> 0:25:32.400
<v Speaker 1>you look at the multiple, it doesn't trade at all

0:25:32.440 --> 0:25:35.440
<v Speaker 1>that much of a premium to the market, especially when

0:25:35.480 --> 0:25:37.639
<v Speaker 1>you adjust for the nearly hundred and forty dollars a

0:25:37.680 --> 0:25:39.600
<v Speaker 1>share that they have in cash. All Right, I'll give

0:25:39.600 --> 0:25:42.800
<v Speaker 1>you a chance now for Amazon. Amazon a hundred and

0:25:42.840 --> 0:25:45.800
<v Speaker 1>sixty one billion dollars a year in revenue, But they're

0:25:45.800 --> 0:25:49.920
<v Speaker 1>not interested in profits, are they. Uh? That's always the

0:25:50.000 --> 0:25:52.960
<v Speaker 1>knock on the stock, right is that you know, Amazon

0:25:53.000 --> 0:25:55.280
<v Speaker 1>doesn't throw a whole lot to the bottom line with

0:25:55.400 --> 0:25:57.480
<v Speaker 1>this company when you look at it longer term and

0:25:57.560 --> 0:26:00.520
<v Speaker 1>you discount the potential cash flow, and if they ever

0:26:00.560 --> 0:26:02.800
<v Speaker 1>took their foot off the gas in terms of the investments,

0:26:02.840 --> 0:26:06.160
<v Speaker 1>there would be an extraordinary flow through. Now you're hard

0:26:06.160 --> 0:26:08.600
<v Speaker 1>pressed the fault them for the investments that they've made

0:26:08.640 --> 0:26:12.800
<v Speaker 1>because they have generated such extraordinary revenue growth. And I

0:26:12.840 --> 0:26:14.679
<v Speaker 1>think you're going to see that in this holiday season.

0:26:14.880 --> 0:26:17.200
<v Speaker 1>You know, they put out a release talking about prime

0:26:17.600 --> 0:26:20.359
<v Speaker 1>membership and new prime offerings that were adopted during the

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:24.720
<v Speaker 1>holiday season, and all points everything points to a very

0:26:24.800 --> 0:26:28.000
<v Speaker 1>very robust holiday season for them, and then the AWS

0:26:28.040 --> 0:26:30.439
<v Speaker 1>business continues to be in a nice trajectory and generate

0:26:30.480 --> 0:26:33.479
<v Speaker 1>slots of cash flow for them. Thanks very much, Michael Scanlon,

0:26:33.520 --> 0:26:38.000
<v Speaker 1>as portfolio manager, Manu Life Asset Management, joining us from Boston.

0:26:41.840 --> 0:26:44.359
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast.

0:26:44.720 --> 0:26:48.600
<v Speaker 1>You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple podcasts, SoundCloud,

0:26:48.720 --> 0:26:52.200
<v Speaker 1>or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm

0:26:52.200 --> 0:26:55.760
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa

0:26:55.800 --> 0:26:58.959
<v Speaker 1>Abramowits one before the podcast. You can always catch us

0:26:58.960 --> 0:27:09.080
<v Speaker 1>worldwide on Blue or Radio m