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Speaker 1: Hello friends, and welcome into Betting Pro's college football early

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Speaker 1: line look ahead.

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Speaker 2: I'm Chris Welsh.

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Speaker 1: That is Thorn Ninstrum week five is here, ready to

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Speaker 1: try to take advantage of the lines, get our bets

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Speaker 1: in as early as we possibly can.

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Speaker 2: Where are the advantages?

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Speaker 1: While thor is gonna tell us with the adjusted line,

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Speaker 1: what's everything looking like?

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Speaker 2: The whole scope of it?

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Speaker 1: On the heels thoor of Colorado getting absolutely mud stomped.

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Speaker 1: They made some of that money back. I think it

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Speaker 1: felt like it wanted to be a Colorado bet. If

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Speaker 1: I remember correctly on the Betting pros app you did

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Speaker 1: not have that. I think you had organ on the

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Speaker 1: line here in Organ. They made their point, They made

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Speaker 1: their point hurt they did.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, I was on Oregon this past week. It

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Speaker 3: was just a really bad matchup for Colorado. I mean

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Speaker 3: you could see that going in. That's how it played out.

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Speaker 3: I didn't imagine that Colorado's offense would be quite that feeble.

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Speaker 3: But we also cashed a bunch of props. The under

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Speaker 3: on Shader Sanders is way too high with three thirty

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Speaker 3: five all week at Prize Picks and the other bucks

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Speaker 3: that was in the high three twenties, so that that

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Speaker 3: was a pretty easy one, and then the unders on

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Speaker 3: their receivers. But you know, overall, it was such a

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Speaker 3: crazy day at college football, Like it was a stack

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Speaker 3: card hadn't end, and it certainly lived up to the billing,

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Speaker 3: if not even more. Like by the time you got

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Speaker 3: to the night where Notre Dame was, you know, more

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Speaker 3: or less controlling that Ohio State game should have won.

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Speaker 3: And then the end of the game, there's all the

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Speaker 3: ridiculous calls that you know, they the defensive calls for

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame dropping the eight guys on that that third down,

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Speaker 3: but still there's a wide open Ohio State receiver to

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Speaker 3: get that conversion, and then the last two plays of

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Speaker 3: the game where they only had ten guys on the field.

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Speaker 3: You know, I was like if I just been watching

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Speaker 3: college football day and like I'm seeing stuff you're sort

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Speaker 3: of squinting at the TV. But yeah, it was just

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Speaker 3: a wild day and a really fun day at college football.

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Speaker 1: It was, and I highly go and take a look.

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Speaker 1: It's very impressive the price picks. I was actually on

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Speaker 1: with our mutual friend Bogman, and I saw your tweet

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Speaker 1: and I was like, fuck, look at the two six

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Speaker 1: leg price picks, just cash cash money. It was beautiful,

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Speaker 1: So make sure you're following Thorpe all that. I did

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Speaker 1: want to get your opinion real quick because I don't

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Speaker 1: think we're going to be covering them on this show.

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Speaker 1: But Alabama, you know, Alabama kind of came out, and

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Speaker 1: I mean everybody in the world, for all the right reasons,

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Speaker 1: were on Old miss but Alabama came out. I just

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Speaker 1: didn't get your thoughts real quick on them before we

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Speaker 1: move on to the Week five slate.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that was That was one of my misfires this week.

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Speaker 3: I thought Missippy was going to beat him out right,

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Speaker 3: and the way that I handicapped that game, I you know,

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Speaker 3: I thought it was going to be Misssippi leveraging Quinjohn

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Speaker 3: Judkins against Alabama front that can be had you can

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Speaker 3: at least nick away at him and then going over

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Speaker 3: the top of the play action stuff because Alabama struggles

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Speaker 3: with the explosive passes. Missibby came into that game with

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Speaker 3: a bizarre strategy that I didn't understand. It was just

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Speaker 3: a bunch of short passes from Jackson Dart At that point,

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Speaker 3: you were going right into the strength of the Alabama defense.

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Speaker 3: They're really good against passing efficient the short stuff. I

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Speaker 3: didn't get it. And then, you know, so I was

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Speaker 3: wondering in the middle of the game. I actually called

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Speaker 3: someone because I said, is is Jukins' health worse than

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Speaker 3: we think? Is that why this is the strategy? And

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Speaker 3: the person I was talking to was I don't know.

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Speaker 3: And then I saw Quinjohn Jenkins's mom was tweeting why

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Speaker 3: are they not running the ball more? And so I

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Speaker 3: was like, Okay, I guess that's not it. I guess

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Speaker 3: they just had a bad game plan, but it is

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Speaker 3: what it is. That was a moment that Lane Kiffin

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Speaker 3: I think could have capitalized on how far Alabama is down,

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Speaker 3: and the game plan did not allow his team, I think,

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Speaker 3: to succeed in that situation. Yeah, it.

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Speaker 1: Vegas made some of their money back on those old

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Speaker 1: miss bets, but it also it's, you know, the interesting

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Speaker 1: parody across college football, And like you said, it was

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Speaker 1: a kind of crazy weekend with some obvious I made

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Speaker 1: some money on Kentucky and Washington, did not make some

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Speaker 1: money on a few other bets that I had, But

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Speaker 1: that's how she goes and that's where we're going to

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Speaker 1: try to get you those advantages where we can for

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Speaker 1: week five, and let's just jump into the action.

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Speaker 2: If you guys want to.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you are following all of it and all

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Speaker 1: the thoughts that are going down, make sure you follow

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Speaker 1: four on Twitter at four K.

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Speaker 2: You can be posting.

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Speaker 1: About all the shows, all the stuff all week long,

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Speaker 1: so make sure you do that. Let's jump to Friday, actually,

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Speaker 1: because we have got a double rank game coming up

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Speaker 1: here on Friday, Utah four and oh Utah is going

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Speaker 1: up against Oregon State, who is three and one. There's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of an adjusted line to yours on

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Speaker 1: what's out Publicly, it looks like Utah is a two

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Speaker 1: point favorite, but you your system almost has it like

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Speaker 1: a pickup. It's like one. So I'm not really sure

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Speaker 1: there's any value where you're going to be like, oh hey,

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Speaker 1: this one point means any difference. But where do you

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Speaker 1: sit on this game and what do you look into bet?

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Speaker 1: If anything, I would prefer Utah in this game. I

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Speaker 1: feel like the numbers on them have been too low

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Speaker 1: throughout the season.

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Speaker 3: They've been doing well covering and whatnot. Oregon State. It

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Speaker 3: becomes an important game because you just lost that game

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Speaker 3: in Core Vallas, but Utah. It appeared late last week

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Speaker 3: the Cam Rising was going to return for the UCLA game.

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Speaker 3: That up not they beat him anyway. But what we

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Speaker 3: know for sure is that Cam Rising has now been

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Speaker 3: medically cleared. So I would sort of expect Cam Rising

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Speaker 3: to be starting this game against Oregon State. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: have to monitor that more, but we know that at

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Speaker 3: least medically he's he's been cleared. And once Utah gets

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Speaker 3: back Cam Rising. It's this team that just keeps winning

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Speaker 3: without any quarterback play whatsoever, and a game plan, an

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Speaker 3: offensive game plan heading into each game where teams know

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Speaker 3: what you're gonna do and they're still winning. They're Kirk farrensing.

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Speaker 3: Yet basically, you know, just suppressing the scoring. Yesterday, it

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Speaker 3: was funny. They were up by two touchdowns over Ucla

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Speaker 3: in the second half. I told some of this is

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Speaker 3: just like an Iowa game where it's a two touchdown

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Speaker 3: lead that might as well be a sixty point lead.

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Speaker 3: Ucla had no chance to come back in that you're

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Speaker 3: not going to score more than fourteen points on them

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Speaker 3: in two quarters. The defense for Utah is ridiculous. I

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Speaker 3: like the run game two and once I get back

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Speaker 3: rising and then Keithy as well. This team is very

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Speaker 3: dangerous to that upper echelon of the Pack twelve. You know,

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Speaker 3: all these teams that are so fun to watch, USC Washington, Oregon,

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Speaker 3: their kryptonite is a team like Utah and Utah you know,

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Speaker 3: it's a fairly similar thing to Oregon State. I just

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Speaker 3: think Utah is better at it, So that'd be the

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Speaker 3: way that I would lean on that one.

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Speaker 2: Isn't it so trippy?

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Speaker 1: Like I know, this was more of a week like

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Speaker 1: one off of week zero maybe week one to week

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Speaker 1: two conversation, But like, isn't just so weird to think

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Speaker 1: about like where the Pac twelve is at right now

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Speaker 1: and like just how dominant And then they're still kind

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Speaker 1: of dominant like across the board and the matchups or

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Speaker 1: must see every single week, and the Washington looks like

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Speaker 1: one of the best teams in college football. And I

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Speaker 1: mean there's just so much great football coming out of

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Speaker 1: the Pac twelve.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that the Washington offense, it's it's like a cheat code,

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Speaker 3: you know, like even when they're not playing well Washington

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Speaker 3: on offense, they're still putting points on the board. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: Oregon has been about as impressive as you can get.

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Speaker 3: We all know usc those three teams, those are three

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Speaker 3: of my top eight power rank teams in the nation.

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Speaker 3: And we haven't even mentioned Utah, who right now I

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Speaker 3: have fourteenth, But that's Utah as a team that on

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Speaker 3: any given day compete anyone in the nation. And like

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Speaker 3: I said, they are a real matchup problem for those

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Speaker 3: three teams at the top, like I just mentioned. And

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Speaker 3: then you know, you have the Oregon State, you have UCLA.

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Speaker 3: Both those teams are in the top twenty five of

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Speaker 3: my my power ratings in Washington State's just outside of it.

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Speaker 3: It's sad that we got to wave goodbye to the

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Speaker 3: PAC twelve after this year, but they're going out in style.

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Speaker 3: That is one of the best conferences in America, and

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Speaker 3: I've started to hear the argument that it's the best.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure if I can get there quite yet.

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Speaker 3: But if they keep playing like this, yeah, I mean

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Speaker 3: that you might have to concede that.

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Speaker 1: Let me ask you this on the line. I know

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Speaker 1: the system is pretty close. I think when I initially

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Speaker 1: said it, I was thinking this was in favor of Utah.

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Speaker 1: It's actually in favor of Oregon State. Do you want

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Speaker 1: to hit this early before this starts to flip. And

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Speaker 1: I mean I already know that, like, you know Utah

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Speaker 1: you like to bet, but like, do you think this

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Speaker 1: thing could turn and maybe even turn to life, you know,

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Speaker 1: Utah minus three or something like that, Like do you

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Speaker 1: want to lock that in at this plus number in

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Speaker 1: the next day or two before this starts to go.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna be buying a money line ticket on

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Speaker 3: you tat today because my line is basically flipped from

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Speaker 3: what the Vegas one is, you know right now Oregon

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Speaker 3: State minus one and a half. I think it opened

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Speaker 3: at two and my line being Utah minus one point three.

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Speaker 3: And if, if, and when Rising is well, he's already

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Speaker 3: been clear. But you know, if he's starting this game

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Speaker 3: and that's announced in advance, I think this line jumps

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Speaker 3: up to at least Utah minus three really quickly. So

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Speaker 3: this opportunity early in the week to buy a money

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Speaker 3: line ticket on Utah where your odds are juiced better

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Speaker 3: than one to one, that's something I'm interested in for sure.

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Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna join you right after we're done

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Speaker 1: recording here that I'm gonna join you. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: jump over to this Saturday games where this is I

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Speaker 1: mean we kind of alluded to it before, what a

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Speaker 1: matchup and what value there's actually value in this Colorado

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Speaker 1: they got put at the kids table a little bit.

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Speaker 2: In this game.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to get any easier because they're going

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Speaker 1: up against USC four in the USC up against number

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Speaker 1: three and one Colorado. The line is sitting there open

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Speaker 1: up at twenty four. But there's five points of value here.

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Speaker 1: So the big question will and can you bet on

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Speaker 1: Colorado versus USC?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean over twenty four we might have to

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Speaker 3: go back to the Colorado well this week, you know,

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Speaker 3: and you do it. I mean, Travis Hunter is out

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Speaker 3: right and that that's going to be tough on both

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Speaker 3: sides of the ball again. But you know, in this

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Speaker 3: game against the USC defense that's pretty poor. I think

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Speaker 3: that Colorado can manufacture more offense, certainly than they did

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Speaker 3: against Oregon. You know, we talked about this on last

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Speaker 3: week's show, where Oregon's pass defense is really good and

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Speaker 3: I don't think people realize. I maybe now they're starting

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Speaker 3: to realize it a little bit more after they get

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Speaker 3: their game against Colorado. USC does not have that kind

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Speaker 3: of that caliber of pass defense, you're give me twenty

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Speaker 3: four and a half if I mean, even if USC's

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Speaker 3: slapping them around, you allowed that opportunity for Colorado to

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Speaker 3: come in through the back door. I don't think Colorado's

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Speaker 3: offense is going to struggle like it, you know, to

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Speaker 3: the degree that it did last week. I also sort

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Speaker 3: of like the over in this game. My system's total

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Speaker 3: on it seventy eight point nine, and my line on

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Speaker 3: it is USC minus nineteen point four. You can even

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Speaker 3: add a point point and a half for Hunter being out,

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Speaker 3: and it's the line is still inflate it the other way.

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Speaker 3: And that makes sense, you know, in terms of the

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Speaker 3: public perception of now everyone's going to be off Colorado.

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Speaker 3: But Colorado gets this game at home in altitude. USC

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Speaker 3: going there and Colorado, you would have to figure is

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Speaker 3: going to give you a lot better effort this week

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Speaker 3: and again against a team that it matches up with

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Speaker 3: a little bit better than the Oregon game. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I would definitely be leaning the home team in this one.

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Speaker 3: Colorado plus the over, What do you.

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Speaker 1: Think I mean if your system is showing like a

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Speaker 1: like it's like nineteen if you're seeing that in favor

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Speaker 1: of USC and there's a five point differential. Do you

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Speaker 1: think sharp money's going to come in bet Colorado and

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Speaker 1: bring that line down or do you think you're just

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Speaker 1: gonna get a lot of tickets with how bad Colorado was,

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Speaker 1: It's going to go the other Like what if you

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Speaker 1: had to guess which direction this is going to start

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Speaker 1: to go. Is it going to be the big money

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Speaker 1: getting Colorado because of kind of system plays or is

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Speaker 1: it going to be all of the public money that

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Speaker 1: just hated how Colorado looked in usc.

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Speaker 2: Being one of the best teams in football college football.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's tough to say. I would anticipate most of

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Speaker 3: the sharp money will be on Colorado if that thing

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Speaker 3: is above twenty four and a half, because that seems

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Speaker 3: like a key one right there. But I can't predict

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Speaker 3: what the public is going to do in this game

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Speaker 3: because the public has been obviously all over Colorado in

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Speaker 3: the first three and the first two it worked out well.

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Speaker 3: Last week they got burned and embarrassed, So I don't

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Speaker 3: know does the public stay on Colorado in this game

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Speaker 3: one week after they got embarrassed, or are they now

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Speaker 3: going to move to the other side. You know that

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Speaker 3: the public's going to bet a Colorado game. Everybody wants

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Speaker 3: to watch him, everyone wants to have money done and

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Speaker 3: stuff like that. It's harder to anticipate that, but yeah,

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Speaker 3: I would anticipate the sharps. As long as that number

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Speaker 3: is over twenty four, they're going to be leaning towards

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Speaker 3: the Colorado side.

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Speaker 2: Very interesting.

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Speaker 1: Well, one thing to make sure is make sure you're

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Speaker 1: subscribed to Betting Pros on YouTube because throughout the week,

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Speaker 1: whenever we've got anything going on, like the Wednesday show,

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Speaker 1: Mike Ferrell for Scott Bogman's hosting for the look Ahead

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Speaker 1: for the week, or we're kind of doing the look

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Speaker 1: ahead that is for that live look midweek, and then

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Speaker 1: you got the Thursday live streams with Farrell and Thor

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Speaker 1: with some awesome frickin new graphics that we're up this

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Speaker 1: week with the Thorts Hammer and the Faral Fade. You

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Speaker 1: guys can live stream stry A live stream I believe

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Speaker 1: ten a m Eastern leading up to all the good actions.

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Speaker 1: So if you are subscribed to the Betting Pros YouTube channel,

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Speaker 1: you hit notify ban every time we are live with content,

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Speaker 1: it is delivered right to you, So make sure you

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Speaker 1: do so. My friends, all right. Going over to the

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Speaker 1: Florida Kentucky game. Actually, Kentucky was a good bet for

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Speaker 1: me this week. Kentucky four and oh hosting Florida, who

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Speaker 1: is three and one the public line, your line look

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Speaker 1: about the same. But I'm dying to get your take

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Speaker 1: on what you think we're going to see out of

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Speaker 1: this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought, uh, Lexington had a shot at College

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Speaker 3: Game Day this week. You know they they're they're doing

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Speaker 3: another one with Notre Dame and Syracuse or whatever it is.

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Speaker 3: But I thought this game had a real shot to

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Speaker 3: get it. Unfortunately they didn't. But with the line being

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Speaker 3: at three, Kentucky opening a three point favorite, I would

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Speaker 3: just have the slightest lean to Kentucky. My line's Kentucky

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Speaker 3: by three point three. I like Kentucky more than Florida two.

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Speaker 3: It's you know, you're playing with the margins there, you're

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Speaker 3: pretty close. But if that thing's three or below, Kentucky's

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Speaker 3: a fire for me.

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Speaker 1: And Kentucky has been efficient too. Sure, they have been

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Speaker 1: a really good bet. I should have looked at what

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Speaker 1: they have been against the spread, but I mean they've

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Speaker 1: been a good money play this year.

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Speaker 3: So one of those perception against riality teams, because you know,

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Speaker 3: you lost Will Levis over the Aus and stuff like that,

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Speaker 3: and you know people and Chris Rodriguez, stuff like that,

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Speaker 3: and so I think people thought, oh, they're gonna be worse.

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Speaker 3: I made this point over the summer that I thought

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Speaker 3: Kentucky's backfield was actually better. Now you bring in Devin Leary,

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Speaker 3: you bring in Ray Davis, and so far that is

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Speaker 3: born out, especially with Levis's struggles the year before. Kentucky

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Speaker 3: looks like a better team than they were. And Florida,

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Speaker 3: you know, at least in the early going, they appear

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Speaker 3: to be a slightly different team whether it's at home

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Speaker 3: or on the road, and they also seem like they're

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Speaker 3: the factors around the team can also play Like this

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Speaker 3: past week they're playing Charlotte at home. That was a

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Speaker 3: home game. They should have slapped around that Charlotte team,

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Speaker 3: but they were just sort of sleep walking through it.

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Speaker 3: I just don't like that Florida team as much as

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Speaker 3: I like Kentucky. I think Kentucky's locked in for this one.

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Speaker 3: And like I said, you get that line of three

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Speaker 3: year below. I think Kentucky's to play there.

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Speaker 1: Wasn't that Florida's thing last year too, even with Richardson,

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Speaker 1: I felt like they had some sleepy performances that was

329
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Speaker 1: just like, what are we doing? It was like it

330
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Speaker 1: almost felt like Late Night with the Boys type of stuff.

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Speaker 1: Everybody just looks sluggish, and I felt like there are

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Speaker 1: multiple early first half season games with Florida they were

333
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Speaker 1: a tough bet early last year even with Richardson, but.

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Speaker 3: Agreed, yeah, yeah, and who knows if it's gonna work

335
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Speaker 3: for Napier there, but if nothing else, he has a

336
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Speaker 3: bit of a flawed roster and some of the games

337
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Speaker 3: you have, like you know, whether it's it's wonky effort

338
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Speaker 3: with some of the guys, whether it's trying to leverage

339
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Speaker 3: players that aren't as good as key components of your

340
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Speaker 3: game plan, different stuff like that. Like the tough thing

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Speaker 3: this year you have Graham Mertz at quarterback and then

342
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Speaker 3: your receiving corps is not very good and so it's

343
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Speaker 3: basically forced the ball to Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall is not bad,

344
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Speaker 3: and yesterday he had the catch of the year, just

345
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Speaker 3: an absolutely ludicrous cat. It was insane, and he's he's

346
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,240
Speaker 3: a solid P five starter, but he's not going to

347
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Speaker 3: be an NFL standout or anything, and you know, that's

348
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Speaker 3: that's what you got there. And yeah, this goes back

349
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Speaker 3: to the offseason as far as like who Billy Napier

350
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Speaker 3: chose as the quarterback he had the scholarship to give

351
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Speaker 3: out to replace Anthony Richardson. He went after Michael Pratt

352
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Speaker 3: really hard in the transfer portal. Pratt deicided to go

353
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Speaker 3: back to Tulane once Willie Fritz turned down the Georgia

354
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Speaker 3: Tech offer, and then Napier just sort of panicked and

355
00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:14,960
Speaker 3: offered one to Mertz, who, in my opinion, is not

356
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Speaker 3: really a system fit there because you don't really have

357
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Speaker 3: the mobility. The talent as well as isn't great, but

358
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Speaker 3: like you would think, you know, if you're gonna go

359
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,560
Speaker 3: with a quarterback of that caliber, he's gonna have better

360
00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:30,080
Speaker 3: mobility than Mertz does for that system. But just that

361
00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,880
Speaker 3: stuff's all weird. And I don't really trust that Florida team.

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Speaker 1: So here's an interesting one. I guess they're all interesting.

363
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 1: I'm like, hey, they're interesting. All of these games are

364
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,000
Speaker 1: interesting because these are the ones that we're really focused

365
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,400
Speaker 1: on talking about. Number one Georgia four and oh is

366
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 1: going to Auburn, who is three and one. If you're

367
00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:49,840
Speaker 1: an Auburn better it feels like maybe there might be

368
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 1: something in play here because your system actually shows Georgia

369
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:56,960
Speaker 1: in between that big marker. So the line opened up

370
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,800
Speaker 1: at sixteen and a half, your system is around twelve,

371
00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:03,640
Speaker 1: and that is just breaking that two touchdown marker, which

372
00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 1: you'd love to see like under, you know, anything like

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00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,720
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half in under or over I suppose

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Speaker 1: would be that play. And I'm curious here though, even

375
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:15,080
Speaker 1: though your system is showing this is Auburn in play

376
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,520
Speaker 1: for you to bet because of the big line adjustment,

377
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 1: or is Georgia just too.

378
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,119
Speaker 3: Good Auburn's in play. This is one of those wait

379
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,560
Speaker 3: until later in the week kind of things because I

380
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,280
Speaker 3: want a seventeen or a seventeen and a half. But

381
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:32,280
Speaker 3: this line is absolutely inflated, and it's it's on both

382
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,400
Speaker 3: sides of it. Georgia is still being price like they're

383
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,200
Speaker 3: this Leviathan that they've been in the last couple of years.

384
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,440
Speaker 3: They're not that quite that good. They're not I mean,

385
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,680
Speaker 3: this team is a little bit down from the past

386
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,200
Speaker 3: two They still might end up going undefeated and winning

387
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,840
Speaker 3: the national title, but they are on the field not

388
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,280
Speaker 3: as dominant as those past two ones, even though they're

389
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:53,800
Speaker 3: getting priced like that. And then on the other side,

390
00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:56,200
Speaker 3: who wants to bet Auburn right now, you know, especially

391
00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,399
Speaker 3: after after last week when they you know, did not

392
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,679
Speaker 3: do very well against say and I'm and stuff like that.

393
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,719
Speaker 3: So it's sort of a by low sell high. You know,

394
00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 3: you have it on both sides of it. I think

395
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,520
Speaker 3: that explains the four point discrepancy between where my line

396
00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 3: is on this game at Georgia mine is twelve point

397
00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,919
Speaker 3: seven and the Vegas line. But you would anticipate the

398
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:15,960
Speaker 3: public is going to be betting Georgia here for the

399
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:18,280
Speaker 3: reasons I just stated, We're really close to a key

400
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 3: number at seventeen, So I'm gonna be waiting for a seventeen,

401
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 3: maybe even a seventeen and a half if the steam

402
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 3: starts going that way.

403
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 1: Seventeen and a half would be pretty sweet, all right,

404
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:27,919
Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for that. So that's an

405
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,879
Speaker 1: interesting one where you don't anticipate it moving in the

406
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 1: wrong direction and it's probably going to work in favor,

407
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:35,800
Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for that. Look for seventeen

408
00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,639
Speaker 1: seventeen and a half on that one. Also, go and

409
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 1: check out the Betting Pros app. You can get it

410
00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 1: at the iOS or Android store and the best parts

411
00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 1: about it, or you can follow the top experts, top

412
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:48,400
Speaker 1: rated betters on the app.

413
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:49,960
Speaker 2: You could be one of those two. By the way,

414
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:51,480
Speaker 2: there's a lot of people out there that are always like,

415
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:53,520
Speaker 2: I could do what you do? You know I can

416
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 2: totally do? Okay, then do it. You can do it

417
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 2: on Betting Pros another great future. You can put notes

418
00:18:58,359 --> 00:18:58,640
Speaker 2: in there.

419
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,199
Speaker 1: You want to get noticed, make your bets, put in

420
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 1: notes on your on why and guess what, people at

421
00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:07,480
Speaker 1: Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros they're gonna notice. They're gonna notice,

422
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 1: and they're gonna even see your write up. So do

423
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 1: yourself a favor. But you can get notifications on hot streaks,

424
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 1: on the best ROI positive markets for certain betters. So

425
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,360
Speaker 1: go and check it out. Download the app, Get involved.

426
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 1: Follow four for all your college bets. Follow me for

427
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 1: a little bit of prop action. It's been very good

428
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 1: in the NFL. I wish I could get into the

429
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,879
Speaker 1: college thing, but I have. I'm at least over sixty

430
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:32,440
Speaker 1: five win percentage in NFL props so far this year,

431
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,879
Speaker 1: so fingers crossed. It keeps holding up. Week three was

432
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,480
Speaker 1: a little bit tougher, but follow and you can get notified.

433
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,320
Speaker 1: So go and check it out the Betting Pros app

434
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 1: on your app store. Let's go to the afternoon games.

435
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 1: Kansas Texas. Cool baby, I'm in for this one. Kansas

436
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 1: is going to Texas two four and ohero teams. There

437
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 1: is a two point line discrepancy from the public to

438
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,440
Speaker 1: your system. So you talk to me about Kansas and Texas.

439
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a spot has been okay at in

440
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 3: recent years rock Chalk teams that were not as good

441
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,479
Speaker 3: as this one, not nearly as good. Rock Chalk has

442
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: upset Texas I think twice in the past five times

443
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 3: something like that, and one or two of the other

444
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 3: ones they were very very close tech. I'm sorry. Kansas

445
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 3: always plays up to Texas, or generally most years they

446
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 3: play up to Texas. This is obviously a better Kansas team.

447
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 3: If Kansas could pull this upset all of a sudden,

448
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 3: they're looking pretty decent to get into the Big twelve

449
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 3: title game. You know, as far as that goes, you know,

450
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 3: the lines opens at seventeen and a half. What's interesting

451
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 3: about this is, even though you know I'm a Kansas

452
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 3: grad and I'm the world world's biggest Kansas homer. My

453
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 3: system has not been showing value on Kansas last couple

454
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 3: of weeks. It tells me that the market is actually

455
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 3: higher on the Jayhawks than I am, which is surprising

456
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 3: because I was significantly higher on them than the market

457
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 3: heading into the year, and it seems like, you know

458
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,680
Speaker 3: that the market is now shot past me based on

459
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 3: the early stuff, like the game against BYU, My line

460
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 3: was way lower than what you know ended up out

461
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,880
Speaker 3: there at the Sports Bucks, and early on it looked

462
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 3: like Kans was gonna have trouble there, but they actually

463
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 3: ended up covering the number in that game. My line

464
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 3: on this one is Texas minus nineteen point six. I've

465
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 3: been and that's mostly because of the Texas side and

466
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,360
Speaker 3: not the Kansas side. I've been very impressed with Texas.

467
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 3: Last week. They go to Baylor, a team that always

468
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 3: plays them well, and they slapped around Baylor. Baylor was

469
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 3: impotent in that game. They couldn't do anything, and Texas

470
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 3: did whatever they wanted to do. This one is gonna

471
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 3: be a little bit different because you're not totally holding

472
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 3: that Kansas offense down. Nobody is, and they're gonna figure

473
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 3: Kansas gonna figure out a way to scheme away from

474
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 3: the defensive strength of Texas, which is their ridiculous defensive line.

475
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 3: So you know, for me, if nothing else, this is

476
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 3: more of a prop look where I think I'm gonna

477
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 3: be on the unders for Devin Neil. I think I

478
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,719
Speaker 3: might be on the overs of Jalen Daniels this week.

479
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 3: You know again, I think they're gonna try to get

480
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 3: aggressive one out, put the Texas safeties into conflict, do

481
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,880
Speaker 3: that sort of stuff that Kansas does. I think it's

482
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 3: gonna be tough for sledding on the ground. As far

483
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 3: as the side goes in this one, I can't bet it.

484
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,160
Speaker 3: Right now. I'm interested to see where this line goes

485
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 3: during the week. My total is very close to the

486
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 3: Vegas total that dropped as well. So for right now,

487
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 3: this is a wait and see for me during the week.

488
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 3: But I think this is gonna be a great prop game.

489
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 1: I was going to ask you on the total if

490
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,199
Speaker 1: there was a if there was a play. So so

491
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: I mean, what is it that you're what is the

492
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:30,919
Speaker 1: wait and see action of it? What are you going

493
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 1: to be peeking for? You're gonna be peeking for maybe

494
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 1: the total to go up to bet the over for.

495
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,120
Speaker 2: It to move maybe in more of Texas.

496
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,120
Speaker 3: What what is the what should we be looking for

497
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 3: if the if that line, if that line drops beneath seventeen,

498
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,880
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to bet against my Alma mad Oh. Yeah,

499
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 3: maybe we'll get an emotional hedge there. But yeah, I mean,

500
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 3: you know, my line being two points south of I'm sorry,

501
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 3: two points north of where the Vegas line is, but

502
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 3: it's not over a key number, right, and so Vegas right,

503
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 3: they drop these numbers where they sort of put it

504
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 3: in these these spots where if it moves the one way,

505
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 3: it doesn't hurt him because it's not going over a

506
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 3: key threshold. But they want to see where the market,

507
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 3: what the market's going to do with it. So I'm

508
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 3: just interested to see what the market does with it.

509
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,919
Speaker 3: But I don't know that I can bet Kansas, despite

510
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 3: what I said about them, you know, usually doing okay

511
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 3: and here, and I like the coaching staff, especially the

512
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 3: offensive coordinator that Kansas got. That guy's a genius in

513
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 3: terms of this stuff. So I do think he can

514
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 3: stay away from the strength of that Texas defense. Like

515
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 3: I was talking about better than some of these opponents.

516
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,120
Speaker 3: And you know in the past couple of weeks where

517
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,479
Speaker 3: they've just tried to go into the strength of it,

518
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: you're not going to see Kansas do that. But can

519
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 3: they can Kansas do effectively enough essentially playing keep away

520
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 3: with the ball where they try to get it to

521
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 3: the perimeter and now we're going to take a downfield

522
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 3: shot because we have a numbers advantage. Jalen Daniel's gonna

523
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 3: have to play perfect in this one to give Kansas

524
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 3: a shot. If he does, and we've seen some magic

525
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 3: from that kid, but it's you know, the Nevada game

526
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 3: wasn't quite as good. He looked locked in. Again, that's

527
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 3: what we'll have to see. But yeah, I mean again,

528
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 3: like if that thing goes under seventeen, unfortunately, I'm gonna

529
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 3: have to do the emotional hydrobat.

530
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: Everyone pay attention to it and shame or the shame

531
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 1: what are you doing going against your team?

532
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 2: All right?

533
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 1: Another great game LSU going into Old Miss or Miss

534
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 1: couldn't do what everybody wanted. On the betting side, both

535
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 1: teams are three and one. Again, this is a pretty

536
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: close line based on what publicly I think we saw

537
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 1: around two and a half. Your systems got it around

538
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: one and a half. So talk to me about ole

539
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 1: Miss and LSU. Is there a bet for you or

540
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 1: is there something to watch?

541
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 3: There is a potential bet here, but I gotta wait

542
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,199
Speaker 3: on it. My line is ol Miss minus one and

543
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 3: a half, So I have the wrong team favorite or

544
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 3: the different team favored here. If this line gets to

545
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 3: LSU minus three, and I think there's a really good

546
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 3: shot it does because LSU's look solid past couple of weeks.

547
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 3: They played down to Arkansas. I didn't love that from LSU,

548
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 3: but they won that game, and obviously the week before

549
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 3: they annihilated Misissippi State. Whereas ole Miss is coming off

550
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 3: this week, where we talked about it at the jump

551
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 3: of this show about how disappointing it was and how

552
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 3: they had the shot to go in there and win,

553
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 3: and they had a weird game plan, you know, the

554
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 3: LSU obviously a different team than Alabama. But now ole

555
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 3: Miss gets to return back to Oxford. I mean, Tuscaloose

556
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 3: is a tough place to play in and this LSU

557
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 3: team not quite as good as I thought they would

558
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 3: be heading into the year. So this is a shot

559
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,119
Speaker 3: for ole Miss to knock off LSU. If the line

560
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 3: is beneath three, for me, that's a no play. When

561
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 3: it gets the three, that's when we fire on Mississippi.

562
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 1: Okay, I mean I feel like there might be some

563
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: gun shyness to it, but I also think you're going

564
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 1: to see that number and you might see it pretty

565
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 1: soon as well, So be ready to load up those

566
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: tickets if you are the last on like the main

567
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 1: slate of the games, We've got quite a few games

568
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about as far as system values

569
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,199
Speaker 1: where we look at thorst system versus what's out in

570
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: the market, and these look like potential values and we'll

571
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: get Thors's take on those. Is Notre Dame at Duke

572
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 1: both for and oh and this is again right in

573
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 1: line what's publicly out there what the system is. So

574
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 1: I mean, do you think Notre Dame is just going

575
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 1: to come out swinging it's in Duke.

576
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 2: What is the play if there's a play?

577
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one of those where my line is

578
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 3: spot on with where Vegas is. My line being Notre

579
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 3: Dame minus four point six, so we're one tenth of

580
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 3: a point off of it. I don't think there's any

581
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 3: value on that side. You know. I mean, the line

582
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 3: will have to change for there to be. Duke certainly

583
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 3: has a puncher's chance to get this upset, but it's

584
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 3: you know where that line is. I just don't think

585
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 3: there's any value. I think there's more value on the

586
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 3: over this one. The total that dropped today was fifty

587
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 3: two point five. My over under on this or my

588
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 3: system total on this is fifty nine point six. Duke's

589
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 3: offense is really tough for people to slow it down.

590
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 3: It's you know, it's sort of like that. It's not

591
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,199
Speaker 3: the exact same as Kansas is, but it's similar in

592
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,439
Speaker 3: that you have the really good quarterback and you have

593
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 3: the really good play caller, and so they you know,

594
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 3: they can do different stuff go and you know, the

595
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 3: scouting each game, we're gonna keep it away from this

596
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 3: opponent's strength and different stuff like that. I love Riley

597
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 3: Leonard and everything like that. And Notre Dame's offense is

598
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 3: super efficient as well. The I also think that the

599
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 3: total of this one might be a little bit suppressed

600
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 3: because Notre Dame was playing so methodical because of the

601
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 3: way the game script went against Ohio State, and you know,

602
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 3: suppressed the scoring there. But Duke I think dude gonna

603
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 3: put up more points than Ohio State did in that game,

604
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,679
Speaker 3: and that's going to force Notre Dame to pick up

605
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 3: the pace a little bit on offense. But I love

606
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 3: the efficiency of Notre Dame's offense. You have an explosive

607
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 3: element too, and Notre Dame obviously got heartbroken at the

608
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 3: end of that game against Ohio State. But this one

609
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 3: would be one where I would look at the total,

610
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 3: but there's no play on the side if the line

611
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 3: remains where it is right now?

612
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 1: Is that total one like you really like? Because that

613
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: sounds like a real especially of like what's out in

614
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 1: the system that I don't know if that's quite a hammer,

615
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 1: but with a seven point differential and the breakdown there,

616
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: that seems like an early bet to get on, get

617
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 1: in on now before that starts to creep up, Like

618
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: do you think that could creep down at all?

619
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 3: I mean, barring weather systems, I doubt it. Yeah, I

620
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 3: mean I think the money is going to be going

621
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 3: on on the over on that one, all all other

622
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 3: things being equal, So yeah, I mean the over is

623
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 3: worth a look for sure early.

624
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 1: In the week, all right, So we've got a handful

625
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 1: of games here. These are these are system values. So

626
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: the Thor's got his thor adjusted line versus what's out

627
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,719
Speaker 1: on the market. Not necessarily, I didn't even ask Thor

628
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 1: ahead of time if these were ones that he loved love.

629
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 1: I know there is one that you personally picked in here,

630
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: but these were some of the bigger differentials that I saw.

631
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 1: So we can get your take if there is something

632
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: you know, if the system tells you want to make

633
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 1: a better there's something you really like. First of Clemson

634
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: at Syracuse, we've got a six and a half versus

635
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: a three on your system, So at a three and

636
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: a half point differentially. I believe that I wrote that incorrectly,

637
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: but I think that's in favor of Clemson here.

638
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 2: So is this a play? Is there a play in

639
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 2: this Clemson Syracuse game?

640
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think I'm gonna be on Syracuse in this game.

641
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 3: But this is another one where I want to see

642
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 3: if that line gets to seven. Uh. You know Clemson, Uh,

643
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 3: this past week obviously against Florida State, they would have

644
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 3: liked for a little bit different outcome there at the end,

645
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 3: and and but you know they still acquitted themselves. Well,

646
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 3: there is people that were like, oh, I'm not you know,

647
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 3: I don't trust Clemson. I'm not gonna bet on them

648
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 3: all season. You know, they're you know whatever. Talking about

649
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 3: the offense. Offense played a lot better in that game,

650
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: so that the market I think is going to be

651
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 3: a little bit more bullish on them. Syracuse is at

652
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 3: a really good start, but they had the injury to Gadson,

653
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 3: uh there, you know, the their top receiver, tight end,

654
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 3: big slack guy, and there's not as much optimism for

655
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 3: them in the market, and I think that's a part

656
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 3: of the discrepancy here. But Syracuse can do a couple

657
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 3: of different things on offense, Like you really like their

658
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 3: running game and the quickening passing game. Even with Gadson,

659
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 3: they can typically get it if you want to load

660
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 3: up against their running game. So I think between Strader

661
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 3: and and the running back they got there, they can

662
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 3: keep that clock moving and and move the chains and

663
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 3: stuff like that. And if you're gonna give me seven

664
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: points on Clemson, it'll have to toggle up another half point.

665
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 3: But I'll be on Syracuse there. I'm just gonna wait

666
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 3: early this week, you know, and see if we get

667
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 3: that up to seven.

668
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 1: Texas A and m at Arkansas Arkansas or Texas. A

669
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 1: and M is a six and a half point favorite.

670
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: Your system is showing a nine point favorite. So is

671
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: this something you would want to jump in on based

672
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: on what your system is showing, would you want to

673
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 1: jump in on this now?

674
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 2: Is there in something to wait for? What do you

675
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 2: think about this one?

676
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 3: Yeah? This this is an early bet one assuming that

677
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 3: Rocket Sanders is going to be out again, and I'm

678
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 3: pretty sure that he will be there. I mean they

679
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: I guess they're technically calling him day to day with

680
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 3: a knee, but I had heard he was going to

681
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 3: be out, you know, three four games, so that would

682
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 3: be the only thing to check on if there's been

683
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 3: you know, any sort of optimistic stuff with that. But

684
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 3: assuming Rocket Sanders is out, A and M is definitely

685
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 3: a play with this line under seven. Like you say,

686
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 3: my line's closer to ten on this one and Arkansas.

687
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 3: I think a part of the discrepancy is I was

688
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 3: mentioning this when we were talking about LSU that Arkansas

689
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 3: played a little bit better in that game. LSU had

690
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 3: a wonky defensive strategy in that one, though, like when

691
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 3: when Arkansas does not have the services of both Jefferson

692
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 3: and Sanders. At the same time, it theoretically becomes fairly

693
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 3: easy to defend them, especially when it just becomes a

694
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 3: kJ Jefferson show. But we saw some wonky things, like

695
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 3: they allowed Jefferson outside the pocket a few times that

696
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 3: there were some weird coverage things going on there, and

697
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 3: it allowed Arkansas to play closer in that game than probably,

698
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 3: you know, just on paper, it would have been. And

699
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 3: so because of that, this line is a little bit closer.

700
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 3: But I like this A and M team. I've been

701
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 3: bullish on the A and M team outside of the week.

702
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 3: I had to fade them against Miami and we catch

703
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 3: them tickets there. But I think they're gonna beat Arkansas

704
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 3: by double digits here. If Rocket Sanders isn't back, so

705
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 3: that this in early week, bet for me. If that

706
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 3: line remains under seven.

707
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 1: You're loading up my card. You're loading up my early

708
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: betting Cardif our this is going to be my third

709
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 1: I love that. I like the Utah I like that

710
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 1: under we talked about. This one looks like another good one.

711
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 1: Cal is hosting ASU my local team out here. Cal

712
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 1: opened up as an eleven point favorite, but your system

713
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 1: has got them over a two touchdown favorite, so hammer

714
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 1: because ASU was super overrated, not good or just kind

715
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: of sit back and wait, what do you think on

716
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 1: this PAC twelve matchup?

717
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is an early week fire too on Cal.

718
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 3: You know, I think this one is a little bit

719
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 3: closer because Arizona State for at least a while it

720
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 3: was you know, they're sort of hosting big brother and

721
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 3: USC was Is it fair to say that they were

722
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 3: sleepwalking through part of that game, you know, allowing the

723
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 3: Arizona State team to stay closer there Drew Pine, you know,

724
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 3: like we know who Drew Pine is, and he gave

725
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 3: them at least a little bit of the short passing

726
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 3: element against that poor USC pass defense that we were

727
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 3: talking about before. I don't think there's any holdover effect there.

728
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 3: I think this Arizona State team is going to be

729
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 3: lucky to win one more game this year. You know,

730
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 3: they're one and three now, Whereas I like this Cal

731
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 3: team and this is obviously a must win scenario for Cal.

732
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 3: Justin Wilcox trying to get into a ballgame, save his job, whatnot.

733
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 3: And last week after he got annihilated at Washington, tough

734
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 3: place to play in Seattle against that offense, CAL gave

735
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 3: him a little bit of trouble early on. Washington had

736
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: to figure it out on offense just a little bit

737
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 3: like they were missing some passes, but then they were

738
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 3: still putting the points on the board. Cal was able

739
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 3: to return a little fire, but obviously last fifty nine

740
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 3: to thirty two. But I just like the Cal team

741
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 3: a lot more than Arizona State, and Arizona State is

742
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 3: clearly I've had this argument with Ferrell and a couple

743
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 3: other people. Arizona State's not trying to win games this year.

744
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 3: They tip that off to everyone when they self imposed

745
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 3: their bullband and then they you know, they put the

746
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 3: true freshmen into the starting lineup. Whatever were shot is

747
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 3: hurt right now. But we know all the limitation with

748
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 3: Drew Pye, Cal is a much better team than Arizona State.

749
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 3: This line is closer just because of perception not reality.

750
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 3: Calsner early week fire this week.

751
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 1: Now the final one on what the system is? The

752
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: system value plays, if you will, was a hand pick

753
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:13,880
Speaker 1: thor game. You're like, this one might be a little

754
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 1: bit muddy and dirty, but you liked that Arkansas State

755
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 1: at U MASS opened up as pretty much a pick them,

756
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: But you like you Mass here so let's talk it up.

757
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, we talk about the Power five ones

758
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,240
Speaker 3: and some of the bigger games, and I just wanted

759
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 3: to dive into that dumpster to you know, to get

760
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 3: us out of the show. I like you Mass quite

761
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 3: a bit in this one that Arkansas State team is

762
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 3: not good and but Jones is going to get fired

763
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 3: either during this campaign or at the very end of it.

764
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 3: Not good stuff going on there, you Mass. They ended

765
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 3: up losing by a field goal last week in overtime

766
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 3: in a game against New Mexico. I think that might

767
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 3: be one reason why why this line is off. It

768
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 3: opened as a pick on. I have U MASS minus

769
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 3: four point six. I think UMass is a better team

770
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 3: than Arkansas State in a vacuum, and they're also hosting

771
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:09,919
Speaker 3: this game. Don Brown there very good defensive coordinator and

772
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 3: you know he's known as doctor Blitz. He sends you

773
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 3: know that he has all these exotic blitzes and it's

774
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 3: coming from all different directions and stuff like that. Don

775
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,720
Speaker 3: Brown against Butch Jones is one of the bigger coaching

776
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 3: mismatches that you can get schematically. I don't I don't

777
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 3: know that Arkansas State will even be able to make

778
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 3: the adjustments necessary to give their their their quarterback time

779
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 3: to throw, and the little bit of receiving talent that

780
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 3: Arkansas State has I think is going to wither on

781
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 3: the the vine at that point. So I like UMass

782
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 3: in this game. I like them by at least a touchdown.

783
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 1: Well, if you are subscribed to Bettingpros dot com slash YouTube,

784
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: because we're watching, just hit the subscribe button. You're gonna

785
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 1: get notified throughout the week. It is really a handholding,

786
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 1: step by step process where we give you the early

787
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 1: line on some early bets. On Wednesday, Mike Ferrellthorne Eistrom,

788
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 1: Scott Bogman will break down what the card is looking

789
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 1: like mid week when things have settled, and then on Saturday,

790
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 1: right up until the action, Thor and Mike are going

791
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 1: to be live streaming with you for all of the

792
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: latest last minute things to get you guys prep so

793
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 1: you truly have a handholder. It's like the walking in

794
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,439
Speaker 1: the sand like it's it's really it's Thor, Like Thor

795
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 1: has always been with you, my friends, He's always been

796
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,840
Speaker 1: walking by your side in the college football stands. You

797
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: can do that bettingpros dot Com download the app You

798
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 1: can follow Thor on there, follow lots of other great people,

799
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 1: see what all the best bets are, track your own bets,

800
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 1: see how you're doing, and make a name for yourself

801
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 1: on that. Become a top better on the Betting Pros app.

802
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 1: Follow him on Twitter at thor Ku. You can follow

803
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 1: me at is It the Welsh. That's your early look

804
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 1: for week five. Thank you guys for hanging out with us.

805
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 2: And we'll be back next week to.

806
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 1: Talk more of these early lines for Thor I'm Welsh.

807
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:47,839
Speaker 1: Thank you guys for hanging out with us right here

808
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:48,720
Speaker 1: on Betting Pros.

809
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. Follow us

810
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 4: on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at

811
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,560
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812
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:04,880
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