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Speaker 2: Here in Washington alongside Joe Matthew. Of course, we've had
Speaker 2: our eyes on the Middle East for the last several
Speaker 2: days after the death of six hostages that were being
Speaker 2: held by Hamas over the weekend, including one American hirscheld Poland,
Speaker 2: and of course this has put renewed emphasis on the
Speaker 2: Biden administration's efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement that would
Speaker 2: see the return of the remaining hostages. The problem is
Speaker 2: you need two parties to agree to that, Hamas and
Speaker 2: of course Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who even in
Speaker 2: the aftermath of this weekend's events, seemed pretty stubborn in
Speaker 2: his convictions.
Speaker 3: We say yes, they say no all the time, but
Speaker 3: they also murder these people, and now we need maximum
Speaker 3: pressure on Commas. I don't believe that either President Biden
Speaker 3: or anyone serious about achieving peace and achieving the release
Speaker 3: would seriously ask Israel Israel to make these concessions. We've
Speaker 3: already made them.
Speaker 4: And so we start this day in Washington without a
Speaker 4: sense of what the next stage in this story is.
Speaker 4: Much of the focus Kayley has been around the Philadelphia Corridor,
Speaker 4: that area along the border of Egypt and Gaza. Net
Speaker 4: Nyahuo says the IDF will not be leaving that area,
Speaker 4: and that may be what a ceasefire actually hinges on
Speaker 4: right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course, we've heard from John Kirby, the spokesperson
Speaker 2: for the National Security Council, earlier today when speaking to reporters,
Speaker 2: he says they're still working on a ceasefire agreement, but
Speaker 2: we know that the same sticking points have been stuck
Speaker 2: there sometimes.
Speaker 4: That's right before we start our conversation with Courtney McBride.
Speaker 4: I'm glad to say is with us, a Bloomberg national
Speaker 4: security reporter with us here in Washington. Courtney's great to say,
Speaker 4: and I hope you had a good long weekend. Thanks
Speaker 4: for joining us here as we try to figure out
Speaker 4: with so much noise, exactly where things stand. I believe
Speaker 4: it was the Washington Post over the weekend at with
Speaker 4: reporting that the US was working on a best and
Speaker 4: final offer on a cease fire. Is that negotiating through
Speaker 4: the media or is that actually where we are in
Speaker 4: this That.
Speaker 5: Seems to be where things stand. Secretary of State Anthony
Speaker 5: Blincoln did say in August when we were in Israel
Speaker 5: that this could be the last opportunity for a peace agreement.
Speaker 5: Now he also say that the US is not backing
Speaker 5: away and will continue to push. But the sense is
Speaker 5: now that the US negotiating with Israel, Egypt and Katar,
Speaker 5: working and leasing with Hamas are really trying to get
Speaker 5: to in the coming days of final offer. Whether they
Speaker 5: frame it that way publicly is an open question.
Speaker 2: Well, of course, we've heard briefly from President Biden over
Speaker 2: this past week, and he was asked whether or not
Speaker 2: he thought Prime Minister Netanyah, who was doing enough to
Speaker 2: achieve a ceasefire. He said no. He was also asked
Speaker 2: when he would speak with him. He said eventually. Why
Speaker 2: not soon?
Speaker 5: Courtney, Well, I mean the administration has been pretty clear that,
Speaker 5: you know, they'll have conversations at whatever level they think
Speaker 5: are going to be productive. So it's it's possible that
Speaker 5: at this stage the President doesn't think that he'd be
Speaker 5: able to accomplish something in terms of moving and deal forward,
Speaker 5: but we expect to see some sort of proposal, you know,
Speaker 5: in the coming days. The US has said and Israel
Speaker 5: has said that Metao agreed to the bridging agreement, but
Speaker 5: that you know, there continue to be implementation questions, you know,
Speaker 5: centered on the Philadelphia corridor, as you both mentioned.
Speaker 4: Could a temporary withdrawal from the corridor be enough to
Speaker 4: get a cease fire? Even if a temporary cease fire
Speaker 4: in place, that seems to be something that some members
Speaker 4: of NTNYA whose work Habinet want but he does not.
Speaker 5: There's certainly internal disagreement over that within the Israeli government.
Speaker 5: But you know, as you know, as Natanello said, you know,
Speaker 5: both parties have to agree, and we're you know, we're
Speaker 5: we're not sure sort of where where the sticking points are.
Speaker 5: But the understanding that we have, you know, from from
Speaker 5: our conversations is both Israel and Hamas are going to
Speaker 5: have to make some concessions, uh in order to come
Speaker 5: to an agreement, and we're just not there yet.
Speaker 2: We have an understanding of whether or not the calculus
Speaker 2: for the Israeli government changes with the knowledge that Hamas
Speaker 2: is actually willing to execute the hostages if they think
Speaker 2: they're on the verge of being rescued. Have they not
Speaker 2: been operating under the assumption that Hamas was going to
Speaker 2: want to use these human beings as leverage and therefore
Speaker 2: they would be somewhat protective and protected until Israel can
Speaker 2: get to that well.
Speaker 5: I mean, again, this is an area where there there
Speaker 5: seems to be disagreement within even the war cabinet. But
Speaker 5: you know, Hamas has been pretty clear about its its
Speaker 5: willingness to uh to use, as you said, to use
Speaker 5: individuals as leverage, as you know, as human shields. But
Speaker 5: you know, there are many of these Arael governments who
Speaker 5: say that they are they're going to continue these efforts
Speaker 5: to rescue the hostages, but there is that possibility that
Speaker 5: they are killed in the process, either in an operation
Speaker 5: to rescue them or when Hamas decides that the Israeli
Speaker 5: government or the military is getting too close.
Speaker 4: We've been showing images on Bloomberg TV and on YouTube
Speaker 4: of these massive protests. We saw general strike yesterday Sunday
Speaker 4: into Monday, tens of thousands of people on the streets. Benjaminettnia,
Speaker 4: who moved by those optics.
Speaker 5: I mean, he gave a speech Monday evening that suggested
Speaker 5: he is firm in his resolve, he is not going
Speaker 5: to change his position, certainly on the Philadelphia corridor, and
Speaker 5: that this, if anything, should reinforce the decision to try
Speaker 5: to seek the rescue of hostages as opposed to simply
Speaker 5: negotiating or conceding more to Hamas.
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Courtney McBride, great reporting. Think you so
Speaker 2: much for joining us, even though certainly it is difficult
Speaker 2: subject matter to say the least, especially considering there are
Speaker 2: still more than a hundred hostages remaining in Gaza at
Speaker 2: this time, in a number of families who certainly are
Speaker 2: struggling with this. Right now, we want to continue this
Speaker 2: conversation with Democratic Congressman Jake Auchencloss of Massachusetts, who is
Speaker 2: joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Sir, it's
Speaker 2: great to have you. I know you had previously met
Speaker 2: with Hirsh's parents, so I'm sure that this hits home
Speaker 2: in a very real way to you. Given the ties
Speaker 2: to Massachusetts. What needs to be done so that no
Speaker 2: other parent or no other family member needs to go
Speaker 2: through what they are currently going through. What do the
Speaker 2: next steps need to be for the US and for Israel.
Speaker 6: I appreciate you having me on this has been a nightmare.
Speaker 7: I was able to speak with Rachel and John Hirsh's parents,
Speaker 7: and as you said, Hirsh had strong connections to Massachusetts.
Speaker 7: I learned from some of his friends and associates about
Speaker 7: what a warm and wonderful person he was who made
Speaker 7: everyone around him better. And I had a hard time
Speaker 7: sleeping that night that I found out that he had
Speaker 7: been executed in And let's be clear what happened, because
Speaker 7: it's been ablighted over too frequently. I think over the
Speaker 7: last week, Hamas forced these six young people to make
Speaker 7: videos to their family members and then shot them execution style.
Speaker 7: Hamas is a barbaric, nihilistic organization and it can have
Speaker 7: no role in post war governance in Gaza because this
Speaker 7: cycle of the property will repeat itself. They have broken
Speaker 7: every cease fire they have ever affixed their seal to.
Speaker 7: They have the destruction of Israel as part of their charter,
Speaker 7: and they will take and execute more hostages. They will
Speaker 7: rape more Israelian Arab women, and they will continue to
Speaker 7: amiserate the Palestinian people.
Speaker 4: Well, Congressman is a combat veteran marine. You bring a
Speaker 4: unique perspective that we would like you to draw on
Speaker 4: in this case, because there are of course questions now
Speaker 4: about what else the IDF can do here, what else
Speaker 4: the Israeli military can accomplish, particularly if it involves out
Speaker 4: of the Philadelphi corridor that we've been talking about along
Speaker 4: the border with Egypt. As a warrior yourself, is it
Speaker 4: possible for the IDF to extract hostages using force using
Speaker 4: rescue operations?
Speaker 7: As someone who was a platoon commander myself, I think
Speaker 7: I know enough as a politician to not weigh in
Speaker 7: on tactical questions that I don't have field.
Speaker 6: Firsthand knowledge of.
Speaker 7: But I will of course say that, as Klouswitz wrote
Speaker 7: more than a century ago, all military operations are an
Speaker 7: extension of politics by other means. And what that means
Speaker 7: is it is never sufficient in a war to purely
Speaker 7: have a military strategem. You also need a political strategem
Speaker 7: to complement those operations. And this is my frustration with
Speaker 7: Prime Minister net Yahoo. It's not that he is insisting
Speaker 7: on Israel's security, It's not that he's insisting on Hamas
Speaker 7: being excluded from post war governance. I agree with him
Speaker 7: on those things. My frustration with the Prime Minister is
Speaker 7: that he is not offering a vision of reconstruction for
Speaker 7: a Gaza Palestine and led Arab supported Western BacT that
Speaker 7: would truly drain Hamas's political capital, because that is what
Speaker 7: Sinwar fears. Sinmaar does not fear destruction. Sinwar does fear reconstruction,
Speaker 7: and Prime Minish from nt Ya who is not offering that.
Speaker 2: Well, it does seem, Sir, that the President may share
Speaker 2: in that frustration. He has said on the record this
Speaker 2: weekend that no, he does not think Benjamin Netanyah who
Speaker 2: is doing enough to secure a ceasefire. But as President
Speaker 2: Biden doing enough, is there more the US government could
Speaker 2: be doing to exercise leverage over both Israel and Amas here.
Speaker 7: Well, I think President Biden has walked to tightrope as
Speaker 7: well as possible in the Middle East. He's rejected calls
Speaker 7: from the right that would lead to escalation and conflagration
Speaker 7: in the region through wider military operations. He's also rejected
Speaker 7: misguided calls from the left that would have led to
Speaker 7: a early peremptory unilateral ceasefire that would have left the
Speaker 7: hostages there and left Hamas in power. But there are
Speaker 7: no good answers on any day in the Middle East,
Speaker 7: and the President's doing his utmost to get.
Speaker 6: The hostages home and to you offer.
Speaker 7: A positive agenda for godz As opposed to the nihilistic
Speaker 7: one that Hamas offers. I would say, though, that sometimes
Speaker 7: you got to make the problem bigger. And what I
Speaker 7: mean by that is this is not just about Israel
Speaker 7: versus Hamas. This is about an axis of authoritarians and
Speaker 7: terrorists stretching from China and Russia through Iran and its
Speaker 7: proxy terra forces in the Middle East. And one thing
Speaker 7: that we could do to enact more leverage over these
Speaker 7: proxy terror forces is to cut off Iran's oil revenues
Speaker 7: by getting China to agree to stop importing Irani and oil.
Speaker 7: Right now, Iran is filling its coffers with Chinese money.
Speaker 7: It's using that money to fund procy terra forces in
Speaker 7: the Middle East. And if we can get that deal
Speaker 7: with China, which I well will admit would be tough,
Speaker 7: But if we can get that deal with China, we
Speaker 7: got a lot more leverage in the Middle East.
Speaker 4: Well, Congressman, is we consider the strain relations between the
Speaker 4: Biden White House and Benjamin NETANYAHUO Here we recall hostages
Speaker 4: being released, a hostage deal with the day that Ronald
Speaker 4: Reagan was brought into office. And I wonder if you're
Speaker 4: concerned about a Trump effect here if the narrative is
Speaker 4: correct that Benjamin Ettyah, who has a better and more
Speaker 4: trusting relationship with Donald Trump, and that he may be
Speaker 4: waiting for a Trump administration to strike a deal.
Speaker 7: I'm not going to appinn on Prime Minister Netanyah, who's
Speaker 7: domestic or foreign political machinations. The United States is going
Speaker 7: to work with the elected head of government that Israel sends,
Speaker 7: and we are going to try to strike a deal
Speaker 7: for a temporary cease fire and hostage return and also
Speaker 7: ensure that Hamas is not permanently in place in Gaza.
Speaker 7: And I think it's important that we remember that the
Speaker 7: US Israel relationship is grounded on values that are much
Speaker 7: more resilient than any given personalities, either on our side
Speaker 7: or on their side. This is about democracy, this is
Speaker 7: about freedom, this is about.
Speaker 6: The rule of law.
Speaker 7: And while we may have frustrations and disagreements, we are
Speaker 7: on the same side civilization versus barbarism hamas is on
Speaker 7: the other side.
Speaker 2: Well, if you, sir, don't want to weigh in much
Speaker 2: on Israel politics, would love to discuss more US politics
Speaker 2: with you. Considering you'll be returning here to Washington next
Speaker 2: week along with your colleagues in the House in the Senate,
Speaker 2: with just a few weeks to go until a government
Speaker 2: funding deadline. What exactly are you bracing for, sir? Do
Speaker 2: you expect you're going to have to vote on a
Speaker 2: continuing resolution?
Speaker 7: What I'm bracing for is for the Republicans to refuse
Speaker 7: to act like grown ups. This is such a preventable
Speaker 7: government shutdown scenario. Earlier in this Congress, we passed a
Speaker 7: big bipartisan bill that reduced the federal deficit and responsibly
Speaker 7: funded federal programs and services, things from Headstart to the
Speaker 7: US military. It was agreed to by Republican Speaker Kevin
Speaker 7: McCarthy and Democratic President Joe Biden. It passed with big
Speaker 7: bipartisan majorities, and then a few weeks later the Republicans
Speaker 7: ran away from it. I mean, that's not how grown
Speaker 7: ups operate in Washington, DC. When you shake cans, you
Speaker 7: are good to your word, and so the Republicans need
Speaker 7: to act like adults.
Speaker 4: Well, there's reporting, Congressman, I'd love to know if you're
Speaker 4: hearing about this, that Speaker Mike Johnson wants to bring
Speaker 4: a stopgap bill to the floor and combine it with
Speaker 4: the Save Act. This was the proposal that he went
Speaker 4: to mar A Lago to roll out with Donald Trump
Speaker 4: a couple of months ago, requiring proof of citizenship in
Speaker 4: order to register to vote in a federal election. I
Speaker 4: know it's primary day up there in Massachusetts, and it's
Speaker 4: maybe apples and oranges in this case, but the narrative
Speaker 4: in Washington is this increases the chances of a shutdown.
Speaker 4: And as we talk to our listeners today on ninety
Speaker 4: two to nine in Boston, they're listening to us talk
Speaker 4: right now. Congressman, can you tell them that this is
Speaker 4: just bluster and that the government will not shut down
Speaker 4: this fall?
Speaker 7: If Hakeem Jeffries had the Speaker's galvil, I could tell
Speaker 7: them that. But with Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, no, I
Speaker 7: can't tell them that because he doesn't seem willing to
Speaker 7: act like a grown up.
Speaker 6: This is exactly what I'm talking about.
Speaker 7: The Save Act is make up a problem that does
Speaker 7: not exist, and attaching it to a problem that does exist,
Speaker 7: which is the federal government imminently shutting down, and trying
Speaker 7: to conflate the two for political cheap shots.
Speaker 6: This is obscene.
Speaker 7: And I would also add that I'm not going to
Speaker 7: take a lecture from Speaker Mike Johnson about election integrity.
Speaker 6: This is the man who led the charge to overturn.
Speaker 7: The election results in twenty twenty and who has consistently
Speaker 7: supported President Trump and his big lie and has so
Speaker 7: damaged our democratic institutions.
Speaker 2: And finally, sir, we have about a minute left on
Speaker 2: the subject of elections. Your seat, of course is safe.
Speaker 2: You are running unopposed, but that doesn't go for a
Speaker 2: number of your colleagues. With Kamala Harris at the top
Speaker 2: of the Democratic ballot, are you more confident that you
Speaker 2: will be a member of the majority not the minority
Speaker 2: come next January?
Speaker 6: It's going to be a close run thing.
Speaker 7: Yes, I feel confident, but we got to work for
Speaker 7: every vote for every day between now an election day.
Speaker 7: The path to a House majority runs through a couple
Speaker 7: dozen House seats across a few states, and we need
Speaker 7: to demonstrate that the Democrats are talking about the future,
Speaker 7: whereas the Republicans are talking about the past. You got
Speaker 7: Donald Trump talking about, for example, a tax policy that
Speaker 7: dates to the eighteen nineties that would raise cost of
Speaker 7: living for the average American family by at least two
Speaker 7: thousand dollars, whereas we got Kamala Harris talking about making
Speaker 7: housing more affordable. That is the contrast. We need to
Speaker 7: drive home up and down the ticket.
Speaker 8: Congress.
Speaker 4: It's good to see if thanks for coming back. We'll
Speaker 4: meet you back here in Washington, hopefully as soon as
Speaker 4: next week. Jake Auchincloss, the Democrat of course, Massachusetts fourth District,
Speaker 4: hailing from the halls of Newtonville, Kayley. Interesting to hear
Speaker 4: from a Democrat racing for the return of lawmakers at
Speaker 4: a Republican lighthouse next week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be a big one. You got
Speaker 2: the lawmakers returning to Capitol Hill, a presidential debate of course,
Speaker 2: between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. I think we got
Speaker 2: some inflation data next week as well. CPI and PPI.
Speaker 4: Yeah, little things here have Hamburg that we focus on,
Speaker 4: and we all put it together in the mosaic that
Speaker 4: is American politics. And that's why we're here, of course,
Speaker 4: on the fastest show in politics. Our panel is up
Speaker 4: next right here. On Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can
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Speaker 2: Thirty broadcasting live from Washington alongside Joe Matthew on Bloomberg
Speaker 2: TV and Radio. And of course, if you're listening to
Speaker 2: us on the radio in Boston, you were doing so
Speaker 2: on our new Signal ninety two nine FM. As we've
Speaker 2: mentioned this hour, Joe, it is primary day in Massachusetts.
Speaker 2: There are still primary right contests that are happening. In
Speaker 2: the meantime, the general election, frankly, is about to begin.
Speaker 2: Not only are we in the post Labor Day sprint
Speaker 2: to November fifth, but this week some mail in ballot
Speaker 2: early voting.
Speaker 4: Yes, I'm so happy you mentioned this. We're talking about
Speaker 4: the big two month wind up here.
Speaker 8: It starts this week.
Speaker 4: North Carolina is where absentee ballots go on Friday, Kayley
Speaker 4: suggesting that they actually pull this off and the Post
Speaker 4: Office does its job. People could be voting, submitting votes
Speaker 4: this week, putting it back in the mailbox on Saturday.
Speaker 4: Then you go to September sixteenth, and it's Pennsylvania. So
Speaker 4: the stakes could not be higher. As these two candidates
Speaker 4: come together in their debate one week from tonight, will
Speaker 4: of course have special coverage and our panel will be
Speaker 4: along with us. Yeah, they're here now. Rick Davis and
Speaker 4: Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Of course, he is partner
Speaker 4: at stone Court Capital. Genie political science professor, Iona University.
Speaker 9: Great to see you both, Rick.
Speaker 4: I just got back from North Carolina last week and
Speaker 4: you were down there too. By the way, we weren't
Speaker 4: staying together. Remarkable to see the ads in North Carolina.
Speaker 4: To actually spend a week in a swing state you
Speaker 4: cannot hide from Kamala Harris's television messaging. And I see
Speaker 4: the headline on the terminal Democrats in southern swing state
Speaker 4: see path for a rare double win. Now you're a Southerner, Rick,
Speaker 4: look at this first time since Jimmy Carter. They say
Speaker 4: North Carolina and Georgia. The difference is Jimmy Carter was
Speaker 4: from Georgia. Is not a liberal Democrat from San Francisco.
Speaker 4: Are you buying this narrative?
Speaker 10: You know, I'm made a narrative at a state by
Speaker 10: state basis, but sure, you know politics has changed since
Speaker 10: Jimmy Carter. It's not the same Democratic party that he
Speaker 10: was in. And the reality is they have the toxic
Speaker 10: combination of growing urban votes, which the Democrats command over
Speaker 10: eighty percent of their vote comes from these urban areas,
Speaker 10: and concentrations of black voters, who again on a percentage
Speaker 10: basis over eighty percent will support Democratic candidates. And so
Speaker 10: she's just getting in the way of history at this
Speaker 10: stage in North Carolina. If the demographics continue to expand
Speaker 10: the way they are, you get more in migration from
Speaker 10: people who move to the cities where the big paying
Speaker 10: jobs are, You're going to have states that are going
Speaker 10: to start voting Democratic more often. And this could be
Speaker 10: the first time we see it where both of these
Speaker 10: are in play in you know, two generations since Jimmy Carr.
Speaker 10: So the reality is this is the wave of the future.
Speaker 10: If anything, the Democrats are looking over their shoulder to
Speaker 10: see what remains of their rural strategy, which is now
Speaker 10: dominated by Maga.
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course Kamala Harris and Tim Walls were trying
Speaker 2: to tap back into the rural vote and their bus
Speaker 2: tour of Georgia last week, and of course in Georgia
Speaker 2: and North Carolina. In our Bloomberg Morning Consult Swing state
Speaker 2: polling that came out last week, Kamala Harris is up
Speaker 2: by two points right now. Joe obviously has mentioned that
Speaker 2: money is getting spent there in terms of advertisements. But
Speaker 2: I wonder, Genie, how crucial personnel is too part of
Speaker 2: our reporting here. It's that in these southern states Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris and her campaign have signed up more than fifty
Speaker 2: thousand volunteers. Is that, at the end of the day,
Speaker 2: what makes a real difference?
Speaker 9: It absolutely well.
Speaker 11: First of all, Kayleie, I don't know why you and
Speaker 11: I weren't in North Carolina. I guess that's where.
Speaker 2: Ever didn't get the invite.
Speaker 11: Yeah, we'll go down next. But you know, absolutely, especially
Speaker 11: in a race that is this raizor thin, this is
Speaker 11: gonna come down to a ground game and who can
Speaker 11: get out the vote. And so that's where you have
Speaker 11: this big advantage when they're April able to raise the
Speaker 11: enthusiasm and that's what's been so, you know, really stunning
Speaker 11: about what Kamala Harris and her team have been able
Speaker 11: to do in about six weeks. Is the enthusiasm. Enthusiasm
Speaker 11: number we saw out of Gallop for instance, that has
Speaker 11: changed now in the double digits for Harris, and it
Speaker 11: was in the single digits for Trump just back in March.
Speaker 11: So that enthusiasm gets people out on the ground, and
Speaker 11: that's critically important. So that, you know, we also saw
Speaker 11: over the weekend Harris and Waltz out there in the
Speaker 11: rust belt trying to do the same thing with their
Speaker 11: union contacts, get their unions not just through the endorsements
Speaker 11: and the leadership, but members on the ground out because
Speaker 11: they too are well organized. So this is very very important,
Speaker 11: and I think Republicans are starting to sweat this a
Speaker 11: bit because, as you guys just talked about, voting starts
Speaker 11: imminently and it continues for about sixty days.
Speaker 8: That's right.
Speaker 4: All I know is this whole show just spends a
Speaker 4: week in Chicago together, and nobody was talking about going
Speaker 4: on a vacation to get GINI Rick, what do you
Speaker 4: make of this idea of capitalizing on early voting Friday?
Speaker 4: Is North Carolina. The sixteenth is then Pennsylvania. How does
Speaker 4: that train your focus on where to spend AD dollars?
Speaker 8: Yeah?
Speaker 10: No, Look, I mean, as you mentioned at the top
Speaker 10: of the hour here, the rest of the country is
Speaker 10: not seeing the campaign for president that's going on in
Speaker 10: seven targeted swing states. They're not seeing the non stop advertising,
Speaker 10: they're not seeing the events, they're not seeing the pop
Speaker 10: up of headquarters all over the state, the massive amount
Speaker 10: of volunteers showing up. So it's like night and day.
Speaker 10: And so when you look at the microcosm on the
Speaker 10: kind of buy that the Harris campaign just did, and
Speaker 10: that is very strategic because they want to get all
Speaker 10: the best ad adjacencies that they can get, and if
Speaker 10: they buy now, they're going to get them. Everybody who
Speaker 10: buys later on is going to have to take whatever
Speaker 10: is available. So kudos to them for getting out with
Speaker 10: this big buy. But I remember it's like deja vous
Speaker 10: all over again two thousand and eight campaign. We didn't
Speaker 10: look as hard as we should have at North Carolina's
Speaker 10: early voting and it's been happening for a long time.
Speaker 10: And Barack Obama held rally after rally where he could
Speaker 10: sign up voters at his rallies, and we woke up
Speaker 10: to find out that we lost massively North Carolina for
Speaker 10: the first time in a long time. And the reality
Speaker 10: was sixty five percent of the election voters had already
Speaker 10: voted by the time election day had come about. We
Speaker 10: lost North Carolina a week before the election was even held.
Speaker 10: And so these things matter a lot right now. And
Speaker 10: with Harris's momentum, it's got to be very troubling to
Speaker 10: the campaign because you know, he's got to get more
Speaker 10: action going on, because he can't out buy her with
Speaker 10: these ads, he can't outground game her. In fact, he's
Speaker 10: got you basically the Elon Musk of super Pack running
Speaker 10: his ground game in North Carolina, which is just getting started.
Speaker 10: So he's got to actually show up and dominate the
Speaker 10: airwaves and hope his vote gets out. And so the
Speaker 10: reality is taking a day off like Labor Day and
Speaker 10: not going to a place like North Carolina is a
Speaker 10: huge strategic failure for the Trump campaign.
Speaker 2: Well, Rick, it was just last week that I had
Speaker 2: a chance to speak with Laura Trump, the co chair
Speaker 2: of the RNC, who said that it has gotten tighter
Speaker 2: in North Carolina and Pennsylvania those are two states that
Speaker 2: the party is considering spending more money in. But with
Speaker 2: what you just said, is it going to be too
Speaker 2: late by the time those resources are actually deployed for
Speaker 2: it to make the difference it could have if they
Speaker 2: hadn't been essentially assuming North Carolina was in their pocket
Speaker 2: up until six weeks ago.
Speaker 10: Absolutely, I mean, right now you are playing a rearguard action.
Speaker 10: If you're not ready to start assessing your voter I
Speaker 10: D work, you know, in other words, you know, identifying
Speaker 10: all your voters up until this point in time, and
Speaker 10: then now going to them and saying, please fill out
Speaker 10: your ballot requests and get it in. And and that's
Speaker 10: happening on the Democratic side. We know they've been preparing
Speaker 10: for this, and all of a sudden you have this
Speaker 10: influx of new voters who are willing to support Harris.
Speaker 10: Obviously the momentum is shifting to her since Joe Biden
Speaker 10: got out of the race, and and and and that's
Speaker 10: what all these voters are doing who are flooding these headquarters,
Speaker 10: is they're calling voters saying, are you now a Harris supporter?
Speaker 10: And if so, can we make sure you've got your
Speaker 10: ballot and you get it as soon as you can.
Speaker 8: Uh.
Speaker 10: The Trump campaign is still fighting the image that Donald
Speaker 10: Trump promotes all the time, which is you know that
Speaker 10: that that you know, absentee voting or early voting is
Speaker 10: somehow violating the law. And so Republican voters are sort
Speaker 10: of stuck. They used to be extremely good at this,
Speaker 10: but now they're stuff because what the Trump campaign is
Speaker 10: telling him is one thing, and what they ought to
Speaker 10: be doing is another.
Speaker 4: Remarkable moment.
Speaker 3: We're in here.
Speaker 4: Ballot's go out starting Friday, Genie, we can't talk about
Speaker 4: the South without looking at Florida, and some voters there
Speaker 4: might have whiplash after listening to Donald Trump over the
Speaker 4: course of the weekend. He started by talking about the
Speaker 4: government paying for all IVF for at least mandating that
Speaker 4: insurance companies do that. Then, after being pressed on this
Speaker 4: ballot question of Florida amendment, that he will now vote
Speaker 4: against a proposed amendment to expand abortion access. This is
Speaker 4: obviously fertile ground for the Harris campaign, and they've been
Speaker 4: active in trying to counter message Donald Trump. Is it
Speaker 4: possible for Donald Trump to ever get on message when
Speaker 4: it comes to the issue of abortion.
Speaker 11: It's going to be very tough. You know, Democrats are
Speaker 11: taking it right to Donald Trump. They're starting this Reproductive
Speaker 11: Freedom Bust tour or guests where in his backyard and
Speaker 11: on beach Florida, because they too, just like Donald Trump,
Speaker 11: are looking at these numbers. The latest IPSOS poll has
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris up point thirteen or plus thirteen rather with women.
Speaker 11: That gender divide is real, and much of it comes
Speaker 11: back to the issue of reproductive rights and abortion. That's
Speaker 11: why we've seen him struggling in the area of abortion,
Speaker 11: what to do on the amendment in Florida, talking about
Speaker 11: IVF as it's going to be paid for by the
Speaker 11: government and even health insurance. Even people in his own
Speaker 11: party are saying that's a little too fast. We support IVF,
Speaker 11: but we can't afford that. He's struggling because he knows
Speaker 11: he wants to do two things he can't do. He
Speaker 11: wants to take a bow for overturning Row and he
Speaker 11: also doesn't want to be hit by the backlash of that,
Speaker 11: and that's very tough to do. And I think all
Speaker 11: of this makes what happens next Tuesday that much more
Speaker 11: important because things are moving very quickly, and that is
Speaker 11: going to be one big opportunity for Donald Trump to
Speaker 11: turn this thing around and get back on his feet
Speaker 11: and make some of these hits on Harris stick. And
Speaker 11: so I think that debate is just so much more
Speaker 11: important now than it even was a week ago.
Speaker 2: Today, Geenie, we just have about a minute left. But
Speaker 2: of course, this abortion issue has made some Democrats suggest
Speaker 2: that Florida could potentially be in play for the party,
Speaker 2: and it's also looking at down ballot races in that regard.
Speaker 2: On that subject, Kamala Harris, according to people familiar who've
Speaker 2: told Bloomberg, is donating twenty four and a half million
Speaker 2: dollars to down ballot, ten million dollars to the DSEC,
Speaker 2: to the D Triple C as well even sending money
Speaker 2: to gubernatorial races. Is that a signal of confidence that
Speaker 2: she is enough money to compete or is that a
Speaker 2: signal that she's aware that even if she wins, it
Speaker 2: doesn't matter if she doesn't have Congress along with her.
Speaker 11: You know, I think it's actually a signal of both.
Speaker 11: You know, it is a signal that she has benefited
Speaker 11: from some of the most impressive fundraising we have ever
Speaker 11: seen in either party in a very short period of
Speaker 11: breaking all kinds of fundraising rules, are all kind of
Speaker 11: fundraising records rather, And it's also the fact that she
Speaker 11: has this money, and she understands if she wins the presidency,
Speaker 11: but she doesn't keep the Senate or you know, at
Speaker 11: least make room in the House, she's going to have
Speaker 11: difficulty passing her agenda.
Speaker 9: So I think it's both.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true, all right. Jeanie Schanzeno and Rick Davis,
Speaker 2: our signature political panel, thank you so much for joining.
Speaker 2: We'll be right back on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 4: We've got our eyes on the races that matter. Charlie's
Speaker 4: keeping you honest on the market. So we'll hear from
Speaker 4: Charlie again in about fifteen minutes. That's the way we
Speaker 4: do it around here. If you're joining us in Boston
Speaker 4: on ninety two nine FM, you can get used to
Speaker 4: that unbiased news coverage and talk with political leaders. Every
Speaker 4: day here on Bloomberg Radio, and we're awfully glad that.
Speaker 9: You're with us.
Speaker 4: I knew it was real this morning when Bill Galvin,
Speaker 4: the Secretary of State, cast his ballot at nine thirty
Speaker 4: am on this primary day in Brighton. I wonder what
Speaker 4: my friends on Guest Street are doing today. I wonder
Speaker 4: what they're having lunch. What are they having for lunch
Speaker 4: right now at the stockyard. Don't answer that, because we
Speaker 4: have new polling on the presidential race as well, and
Speaker 4: it's coming from Suffolk University. Our friend David Paleologos out
Speaker 4: with the big story today in USA Today. Check this out,
Speaker 4: one week ahead of the debate, Kamala Harris leading Donald
Speaker 4: Trump with rising enthusiasm. The headline number will start you
Speaker 4: off with forty eight percent of forty three percent. It
Speaker 4: is within the poll's margin as we read, with at
Speaker 4: least one televised debate ahead, and one in ten voters
Speaker 4: say they may change their mind yet or haven't decided.
Speaker 4: There he is now, you can see him on YouTube.
Speaker 4: Let's bring him in for our radio audience in Boston
Speaker 4: and around the country. David Paleologos, of course, director of
Speaker 4: the Suffolk University Political Research Center. David, great to have
Speaker 4: you back. The last time we spoke was right after
Speaker 4: that change at the top of the ticket happened. We've
Speaker 4: heard a lot of people talking about honeymoon phases. Where's
Speaker 4: the post convention bump? What are you actually seeing in
Speaker 4: your research?
Speaker 12: You know, we've been posters have been whiplashed so much
Speaker 12: by the events over the last month or two, between
Speaker 12: the Trump Biden debate and the you know, and then
Speaker 12: Biden getting out, the assassination attempt, Kamala Harris taking over
Speaker 12: the Democratic invention.
Speaker 8: Now we have the debate next week.
Speaker 12: So it's been it's been such a whip saw for us,
Speaker 12: and in many cases we've had to just crumble up
Speaker 12: the sheet and start all over with Napoleon again.
Speaker 8: So it's been an incredible lot.
Speaker 12: You know, six weeks I don't think for summer, six
Speaker 12: weeks before presidential election, I don't think I've ever seen
Speaker 12: any like this.
Speaker 5: Man.
Speaker 4: That's saying a lot from somebody with some experience. You're
Speaker 4: talking to a thousand likely voters. You're not just registered,
Speaker 4: and we do want to make that delineation August twenty
Speaker 4: five to twenty eight. Are you surprised that Kamala Harris
Speaker 4: and Tim Walls are still holding the momentum at this point.
Speaker 4: There were people talking about Honeymoons a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 8: David, Yeah, no, I am not surprised.
Speaker 12: And the reason I'm not surprised is because what moved
Speaker 12: the most were areas that Joe Biden, core Democratic areas
Speaker 12: where Joe Biden was failing in terms of margins. He
Speaker 12: wasn't doing as well among Black voters, Hispanic voters ages
Speaker 12: eighteen to thirty four, those individuals who had householding comes
Speaker 12: less than twenty thousand. Those are core Democratic constituencies. And
Speaker 12: then overnight you saw shift of you know, from Trump
Speaker 12: to Harris twenty four points, twenty six points in the
Speaker 12: case of Hispanic voter is eighteen points Black voters plus
Speaker 12: seventeen big shifts over what was happening with Biden as
Speaker 12: the nominee.
Speaker 8: Those constituencies aren't going to go leave again.
Speaker 4: So that's that's interesting in the mix well the problem
Speaker 4: and you know, look, the favorables look pretty great for
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris here, she's outperforming Donald Trump, and a lot
Speaker 4: of questions here even gosh, we saw a poll from
Speaker 4: ABC IPSOS she's beating him on mental acuity, understanding the
Speaker 4: problems of people like you representing personal values. But all
Speaker 4: of these polls, including our Bloomberg Swing State pole David,
Speaker 4: show that Donald Trump continues to lead on the big stuff.
Speaker 4: Who do you trust to handle the economy?
Speaker 1: For instance?
Speaker 4: What are you learning about that? And how does Kamala
Speaker 4: Harris change that narrative?
Speaker 8: Same here?
Speaker 12: You know, we found that Donald Trump was winning double
Speaker 12: digits among independents on the economy, on immigration, and Kamala
Speaker 12: Harris was winning on race relations and healthcare. And so
Speaker 12: when you look at when you add it all up,
Speaker 12: the issues of the economy, the issue of the economy
Speaker 12: is the number one issue. Immigration has fallen back to
Speaker 12: a bud with a bunch of other issues.
Speaker 8: So it's really all about the economy right now.
Speaker 12: And as you mentioned the Swing states, part of the
Speaker 12: challenge for posters measuring the swing states is that there's
Speaker 12: been a big registration shift since twenty twenty. In Pennsylvania,
Speaker 12: there's three hundred less thousand less net democratic advantage in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 12: North Carolina, you've got Arizona where you've got shifts of
Speaker 12: less Democrats registered to vote, and that democratic advantage is less.
Speaker 8: So those are areas that.
Speaker 12: I've become a challenge for us when we're pulling these
Speaker 12: swing states.
Speaker 4: Man, you're just swimming in a sea of noise here.
Speaker 4: I realize right now, David, But as the debate one
Speaker 4: week from tonight, the single most important event between now
Speaker 4: and November.
Speaker 12: Absolutely, where else are you going to get a fifty
Speaker 12: million audience crowd?
Speaker 8: I mean, I mean viewership.
Speaker 12: You know you're not even going to get it with
Speaker 12: targeted social media and TV ads, So you know, I
Speaker 12: mean maybe the World Series, you know, in late October.
Speaker 12: Maybe I don't know, but you know, this is this
Speaker 12: is pretty much another one of those inflection points that
Speaker 12: we've been you know, kind.
Speaker 8: Of thrown back and forth.
Speaker 12: And after the debate, you know, we're not fielding any
Speaker 12: polls this week. I made the decision that if we
Speaker 12: fielded a poll, even in Pennsylvania or Michigan's.
Speaker 8: Totally change already dated.
Speaker 12: We're in the field a lot right after the debate
Speaker 12: next week.
Speaker 4: Incredible. I look forward to it. Come back talk to
Speaker 4: just tell us about what you learned. David Paleo logos
Speaker 4: with his finger on the pulse here at Suffolk University.
Speaker 9: You can read more.
Speaker 4: About the poll in USA today, but we went through
Speaker 4: some of the numbers that matter here as a turn
Speaker 4: attention to a story in the Globe that made me
Speaker 4: say what the Boston Globe, a guy named Tom Mountain,
Speaker 4: you may have never heard of, served as one of
Speaker 4: several vice chairs for Donald Trump's effort in Massachusetts, put
Speaker 4: out an email to Trump volunteers to say, quote, the
Speaker 4: campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a
Speaker 4: battleground state unquote, advising them to direct their attention somewhere
Speaker 4: else like Pennsylvania. Now, we had a voice very familiar
Speaker 4: with New Hampshire politics and its connection to Massachusetts and
Speaker 4: the city of Boston. She used to speak for Charlie
Speaker 4: Baker when he was the most popular governor in America
Speaker 4: and is now a co founder of South and Hill Strategies.
Speaker 4: Lizzie Geiton Republican Strategists. Great to see you, Lizzie, Welcome
Speaker 4: back to Bloomberg. You know we're on the big blowtors
Speaker 4: now ninety two to nine FM in Boston, so you
Speaker 4: have to be careful what you say. But I'm curious
Speaker 4: your thought on this. Are Republicans turning away from New Hampshire.
Speaker 5: Recount.
Speaker 13: New Hampshire out and I think, as your former guest
Speaker 13: just said, all these polls are within the margin of error,
Speaker 13: everything's raised within. We have an unprecedented situation where the
Speaker 13: presidential nominee for president is one of the most unknown
Speaker 13: candidates in history, and there's a lot that can happen
Speaker 13: between now and election day.
Speaker 4: Well, that's for sure. So where would you spend your
Speaker 4: attention if you're a Republican trying to convince this Apparently
Speaker 4: one out of ten voters who are undecided or could
Speaker 4: change their mind, according to this Suffolk University poll.
Speaker 3: We were just.
Speaker 4: Talking about, how do you get to them? Is it policy?
Speaker 4: Is it personality? Donald Trump is trying to recreate the
Speaker 4: recipe that got him elected in twenty sixteen, when he
Speaker 4: was largely saying anything he wanted to. Now his campaign
Speaker 4: is trying to direct him to be a more disciplined candidate,
Speaker 4: which one works well.
Speaker 13: I think Trump is a known quantity. We've seen his
Speaker 13: campaign style for years. We know how he acts, and
Speaker 13: he's very much you had every rock overturned in the media.
Speaker 13: We can't say the same for Kamala herrits unknown she's
Speaker 13: not doing interviews, she's reading off a teleprompter. We're not
Speaker 13: really getting to know what's behind her policies, why she
Speaker 13: flip flopped on certain issues. And don't forget as all
Speaker 13: this is happening regardless of the fact that Kamala Harris
Speaker 13: has had an excellent start, she's had a great start
Speaker 13: coming out as a nominee, She very much, you know,
Speaker 13: has other directions that her her race could go. And
Speaker 13: for Donald Trump, the top issues that people still really
Speaker 13: care about, and this was just reinforced with the Suffold
Speaker 13: poll are the economy, our immigration, and he has the
Speaker 13: upper hand with those issues.
Speaker 4: New Hampshire's an oddball though, right, Lizzie, you know this
Speaker 4: more than anybody when we were together covering the New
Speaker 4: Hampshire primary, and you were kind to join us from
Speaker 4: the Radison on Elm Street, which seemed awfully quiet this
Speaker 4: time around because it was the inevitable primary. Remember, there
Speaker 4: were so many nicky Haley supporters we talked to who
Speaker 4: wanted to turn the page from Donald Trump, who wanted
Speaker 4: an older style of conservative traditional style of conservative Republican politics.
Speaker 4: Who do they vote for? Can Kamala Harris pick off
Speaker 4: any of them.
Speaker 13: I think it really matters what is keeping people up
Speaker 13: at night. Are they really going to go with Trump
Speaker 13: as a candidate who they think they know, They've seen
Speaker 13: what he can do on the economy, they know how
Speaker 13: he's going to be in the White House, or are
Speaker 13: they going to go with an unknown candidate in Harris?
Speaker 13: And Harris, by the way, she owns the Biden record,
Speaker 13: and we saw a tremendous increase from Democrats in particular
Speaker 13: for enthusiasm when she went to the top of the ticket.
Speaker 13: Will she maintain that. What will happen between now an
Speaker 13: election day that is going to influence whether or not
Speaker 13: people think that they that she deserves their vote.
Speaker 4: Sure interesting analysis over the weekend of the Washington Post
Speaker 4: Lizzie looking at the where the ads spending is actually
Speaker 4: being focused in this campaign. The bulk of it is
Speaker 4: on attack ads against Kamala Harris, obviously coming from not
Speaker 4: just the Trump campaign but Republican packs, super PACs and
Speaker 4: so forth. Twenty one percent were pro Harris ads that
Speaker 4: drew a contrast with Trump, but fifty seven percent or
Speaker 4: attacks on Harris. And The idea here is that the
Speaker 4: Trump campaign, to your point, is a known entity. Everyone
Speaker 4: knows probably what they're going to ever know about Donald
Speaker 4: Trump at this point, and so the strategy is to
Speaker 4: go negative on Kamala Harris to try to identify her
Speaker 4: before she can Does that work? Does negative work in
Speaker 4: New Hampshire?
Speaker 13: Well, we've seen how negative can work in the past,
Speaker 13: and I think it can work in New Hampshire just
Speaker 13: as well as it can in any other parts of
Speaker 13: the country. And part of the reason for that is
Speaker 13: because she's such an unknown candidate. So part of the
Speaker 13: Trump campaign's responsibility is to indict her, to indict her policies,
Speaker 13: to tie her to the Biden administration and their failed
Speaker 13: record on the economy, on immigration, to call her out
Speaker 13: for her flip flopping on policies, and to hold her accountable.
Speaker 13: And you're going to continue to hear a lot more
Speaker 13: negative ads and positive it's generally just the tenor these
Speaker 13: days that seem to move voters. But you're also just
Speaker 13: going to see people looking to what she is saying
Speaker 13: and holding her accountable for what's how she's going to
Speaker 13: be different if she is from what the Biden administration
Speaker 13: has been the past four years.
Speaker 4: Just a minute left, Lizzie, Is it time then for
Speaker 4: Harris to go negative or continue a positive message. You're
Speaker 4: trying to reintroduce herself.
Speaker 13: I think that you're seeing her try to introduce herself
Speaker 13: to the American people. It's a very short amount of time.
Speaker 13: It's completely unprecedented. But I also believe that for Kamala Harris,
Speaker 13: she's just hoping that she can kind of stay high level.
Speaker 13: I think she's avoiding these interviews on purpose so she
Speaker 13: doesn't have to get into the nitty gritty. I think
Speaker 13: where she is and continue this momentum through election day
Speaker 13: is where she would like to stay. Of course, all
Speaker 13: eyes around September tenth to see how that debate shapes
Speaker 13: up and if she can hang on.
Speaker 4: It's only a week away, and of course she did
Speaker 4: the one interview.
Speaker 9: We'll see what follows.
Speaker 4: Lizzie is the one they call when Republicans want to
Speaker 4: craft messaging and direct their ad dollars at southen Hill Strategies.
Speaker 4: Lizzie Guden, thanks so much for the insights.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 4: Thanks for being with us here on the fastest show
Speaker 4: in politics, Ballance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington, where we've
Speaker 4: got tabs on the presidential campaign and we are waiting
Speaker 4: for the return of lawmakers. That's not until next week, Kaylee.
Speaker 4: A week from tonight the first presidential debate between Donald
Speaker 4: Trump and Kamala Harris. That's going to coincide with the
Speaker 4: return of lawmakers. So it might be a little bit
Speaker 4: of noise around here as we, of course try to
Speaker 4: get a sense of where this race stands. With now
Speaker 4: two months to go, it's nine weeks from tonight. We're
Speaker 4: actually talking about, yeah, election Day and early voting. As
Speaker 4: we discussed with Rick and Jenie mail in, ballots start
Speaker 4: going out in swing states as.
Speaker 1: Soon as this Friday.
Speaker 4: Remembering that the national polls we look at don't mean
Speaker 4: a lot when you start digging into the states.
Speaker 2: Well, and sping states certainly matter. The vote demographics within
Speaker 2: the matter as well. If you're talking states like Michigan,
Speaker 2: and Pennsylvania, the union vote is especially important, and that
Speaker 2: of course is something now that we're coming off of
Speaker 2: Labor Day, the holiday yesterday that candidates, at least on
Speaker 2: the Democratic side were focused on Kamala Harris and Joe
Speaker 2: Biden together in Pittsburgh for.
Speaker 4: The first time on stage. And we can qualify that
Speaker 4: by the way we said that when they made their
Speaker 4: first appearance together that was an official White House event
Speaker 4: on the campaign trail. Though Harris joins Biden in a
Speaker 4: day that was dedicated to labor.
Speaker 8: We know the simple truth.
Speaker 6: Wall Street did not build America.
Speaker 14: The middle class build America, and unions built the middle class.
Speaker 1: When unions are strong, America is strong.
Speaker 14: We will continue to defend and social Security and Medicare
Speaker 14: and Fantion. We will continue to strengthen America's manufacturing sector.
Speaker 2: And of course not a coincidence that this was happening
Speaker 2: in the critical state of Pennsylvania, given the Union representation there.
Speaker 2: According to the latest polling from Emerson College in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: it is a literal dead heat between these two candidates
Speaker 2: forty eight to forty eight. Harris has an edge in Michigan,
Speaker 2: another union important state, as well as Georgia and Nevada.
Speaker 2: Trump's up in Wisconsin and North Carolina and Arizona. So
Speaker 2: it is too Emerson Polling.
Speaker 15: We go now.
Speaker 2: Spencer Kimball, who's the executive director there, is joining us
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg TV in radio. Spencer, it's nice to
Speaker 2: have you back, especially as we broadcast this first day
Speaker 2: on ninety two nine FM in Boston. When we look
Speaker 2: at the swing state map right now, and our polling
Speaker 2: does show this as well, this notion that it is
Speaker 2: wider for Harris than it was for Joe Biden. What
Speaker 2: are you seeing in the numbers in terms of the
Speaker 2: way in which that is presenting itself, the kinds of
Speaker 2: voters that may be more likely to vote for Harris
Speaker 2: than they were for the sitting president.
Speaker 15: Well, Kaylee, I think we start off with the younger voter.
Speaker 15: They've been sitting on the sideline for six seven months
Speaker 15: in our polling, Remember we were talking about RFK Junior,
Speaker 15: you know, getting five six percent. That was primarily coming
Speaker 15: from younger voters who had in passed you know, the
Speaker 15: past election, voted for Biden. So we've seen that group
Speaker 15: come back to Harris. I think what's surprising to some
Speaker 15: of us is that she's been also able to hold
Speaker 15: on to the older vote that Biden has brought onto,
Speaker 15: you know, the campaign that was voting for him. So
Speaker 15: she's kind of having the best of both places, getting
Speaker 15: that youth vote back but also holding onto that older vote.
Speaker 4: Well, it's interesting, Spencer, when it comes to motivation and activation,
Speaker 4: it becomes a different question. Are the students rolling out
Speaker 4: of the little building today on Tremont Streak and actually
Speaker 4: get out of bed and vote on election day? We
Speaker 4: can talk about how they feel right now, but turning
Speaker 4: out is the actual job.
Speaker 8: Well, that is the key.
Speaker 15: We've seen these numbers where voter registrations up maybe one
Speaker 15: hundred and one hundred and fifty thousand some of these
Speaker 15: key states. Overall, about eighty percent of those people are
Speaker 15: going to come out and vote. And you've got to
Speaker 15: remember that the election day. As you mentioned, voters are
Speaker 15: going to start getting ballots this Friday, maybe early next week,
Speaker 15: so they've got seven eight weeks to fill those ballots
Speaker 15: out and send them back in and that might help
Speaker 15: increase some of that turnout with those younger voters who
Speaker 15: may get distracted on election day.
Speaker 2: Of course, we're looking specifically at younger voters, voters of
Speaker 2: all types in the swing states that ultimately will decide
Speaker 2: this election. But it is worth pointing out that Emerson,
Speaker 2: as well as our swing state polling and others, are
Speaker 2: really now just looking at the seven When the conversation
Speaker 2: what six weeks ago was whether or not we should
Speaker 2: be counting states like Virginia or even New Hampshire as
Speaker 2: swing states. It does seem, according to the latest news
Speaker 2: from the Trump campaign, that New Hampshire is maybe no
Speaker 2: longer some a state that they think they could win.
Speaker 2: Would you write it off completely, Spencer, I wouldn't write
Speaker 2: it off completely.
Speaker 15: But we had a chance to pull New Hampshire a
Speaker 15: couple weeks ago, and we had it between five and
Speaker 15: seven points, five points in a head to head and
Speaker 15: seven points when they added on those additional candidates, which
Speaker 15: was very similar to how Biden performed in twenty twenty,
Speaker 15: which is a lot different than how it looked in
Speaker 15: twenty sixteen when it was within a point. So what
Speaker 15: we were seeing when Biden after that debate, Biden's numbers
Speaker 15: were dropping across the country and New Hampshire was coming
Speaker 15: back into play. As you mentioned, Virginia, now there has
Speaker 15: been some polling in Virginia since Harris has joined the
Speaker 15: or taken over the ticket, and it still has it
Speaker 15: at three or four points. That's very close. Virginia has
Speaker 15: moved to about a nine to ten point Democratic state,
Speaker 15: so still strong for the Democrats. And then, of course
Speaker 15: Minnesota was a state that thought folks thought were in play.
Speaker 15: But with vice president and Tim Wall's on the ticket,
Speaker 15: you'd presume Minnesota should be pretty safe seven to ten points.
Speaker 4: Spencer, We're going to take a look at the stock
Speaker 4: market here in a conversation with Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle in
Speaker 4: just a couple of moments. This is one of the
Speaker 4: worst days in recent memory for the markets, the S
Speaker 4: and P five hundred. We're looking at losses one and
Speaker 4: a half to two and a half percent, depending on
Speaker 4: the index you're looking for. And I bring it up
Speaker 4: because we keep seeing consistently in polling that while Kamala
Speaker 4: Harris has topped Donald Trump and some metrics has come
Speaker 4: to even with him and some others, she's still lagging
Speaker 4: significantly when it comes to who do you trust to
Speaker 4: handle the economy, who do you trust to fight inflation?
Speaker 4: Are you seeing that on the same level in the
Speaker 4: swing states.
Speaker 15: Yes, well, the economy is the top issue. It's between
Speaker 15: forty and fifty percent for voters, and then who's going
Speaker 15: to do best on the economy breaks for the republic
Speaker 15: it breaks for Trump roughly two to one. Now, there
Speaker 15: is a subset that we ask about affordable housing that's
Speaker 15: also a cost to living, and on the issue of
Speaker 15: affordable housing, Harris is seen as the champion of that
Speaker 15: nearly two to one. So as she talks about the
Speaker 15: economy cost of living, I think she'll try to focus
Speaker 15: in on that affordable housing issue. Trump on the other hand,
Speaker 15: and you see this in the numbers, particularly dealing with
Speaker 15: the market those fifty to sixty year olds, people that
Speaker 15: are entering into retirement age. You've seen those numbers switch
Speaker 15: over to the Republicans over the last couple of years,
Speaker 15: and they've been pretty strong. So we'll see again if
Speaker 15: Trump can increase that, you know, that vote, or if
Speaker 15: the Democrats can make some inroads with those voters.
Speaker 2: Spencer, Obviously, we spend a lot of our time thinking
Speaker 2: about the issues at play in this presidential election, but
Speaker 2: it goes for elections of all kinds, including congressional ones.
Speaker 2: This is something we were just talking about with Rick
Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Shanzino. This notion that Kamala Harris is
Speaker 2: now shifting more than twenty million dollars to congressional efforts
Speaker 2: to get Democrats elected. It is noteworthy in your latest
Speaker 2: pulling in these very same swing states, the Democrats are
Speaker 2: winning by pretty significant margins across the board. How should
Speaker 2: we be considering the map when it comes to the
Speaker 2: Senate and House with Harris at the top of the ticket.
Speaker 15: Well, the Senate's going to be a more difficult challenge
Speaker 15: for the Democrats based on West Virginia probably swinging to
Speaker 15: the Republicans and then having to defend seats in Montana
Speaker 15: and Ohio. But there are some good news out there
Speaker 15: in Nevada, Arizona. Maybe in Michigan's a little tighter, but
Speaker 15: certainly out west the Democrats are holding those seats pretty strongly.
Speaker 15: But then we get to the House, that's a different challenge.
Speaker 15: One more point on the Senate, I guess would be
Speaker 15: Texas and Florida. We're pulling them this week. We'll have
Speaker 15: a better sense if those races will be competitive for
Speaker 15: the Democrats to try to pick up a seat, and
Speaker 15: then they could swing or hold on to the Senate.
Speaker 15: The House is a different challenge in that it seems
Speaker 15: that the Democrats are in good place. Remember it's only
Speaker 15: like eight or nine seats four or five that they
Speaker 15: have to flip to take back the majority in the House,
Speaker 15: and that's really up for grabs. And what's interesting about
Speaker 15: spending this money down ticket. You know, if you look
Speaker 15: at like North Carolina's first district, that's a toss up district.
Speaker 15: North Carolina is a swing state for Harris. So if
Speaker 15: she's able to increase turnout in that first district win
Speaker 15: that seat, that might help her out at the top
Speaker 15: of the ticket for the presidential electoral votes.
Speaker 4: Spencer is great to have you back. Hailing from Emerson
Speaker 4: College Polling, where he is the executive director, Spencer Kimball
Speaker 4: back with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio with a
Speaker 4: nod to our listeners on ninety two to nine FM
Speaker 4: in Boston. This is the type of conversation we have
Speaker 4: every day here on the fastest show in politics.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on EMO CarPlay and
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Speaker 1: on YouTube.
Speaker 4: We keep tabs on what's happening in Israel, awfully important
Speaker 4: against the backdrop of this campaign. The idea of striking
Speaker 4: a ceasefire, arriving at a ceasefire before the election might
Speaker 4: seem far fetched for some, and you wonder if that
Speaker 4: loosens up a little bit following November. And it's something
Speaker 4: that we're going to be talking about a lot here
Speaker 4: over the course of this program, and of course the
Speaker 4: days ahead, we'll let you know when there's breaking news
Speaker 4: from Israel on a campaign that moves into the final sprint.
Speaker 4: Have you heard that enough lately? Kamala Harris and Donald
Speaker 4: Trump have sixty three days to make the case. In
Speaker 4: one of those days a week from tonight could go
Speaker 4: a long way to helping decide who is going to
Speaker 4: win this election.
Speaker 9: That's the debate.
Speaker 4: Of course, we're going to have special coverage here on
Speaker 4: Bloomberg as you would expect, but we have new polling
Speaker 4: data and we have a new baseline here in this
Speaker 4: campaign that we want to talk about on our first
Speaker 4: day here on ninety two nine a FM in Boston
Speaker 4: with the Dean of Boston Politics, my former colleague John Keller,
Speaker 4: of course, from WBZTV in Boston, the CBS affiliate. He
Speaker 4: is the host of Keller at Large, and he's the
Speaker 4: first man to moderate every debate that counts in the
Speaker 4: Boston media market, and to have him on primary day
Speaker 4: on top of it, John, it's great to see you, welcome.
Speaker 16: You know, the prospect of Joe Matthew back on the
Speaker 16: Boston airwaves has touched off a wave of excitement matched
Speaker 16: only by the Celtics victory parade last June. As I
Speaker 16: look out the window of my office, the streets are
Speaker 16: a sea of people shouting.
Speaker 9: Jubilently, Joe, Joe, Joe.
Speaker 16: It's not clear if they're calling for Joe Matthew or
Speaker 16: just demanding more rice coffee for DD, but we'll take
Speaker 16: it as.
Speaker 4: The former Q the duck boats. We're back, Baby and John.
Speaker 4: It's primary day in Massachusetts. I understand we're going to
Speaker 4: learn who gets to run against Elizabeth Warren, but I
Speaker 4: have to ask you, does anyone in Massachusetts know its
Speaker 4: primary day?
Speaker 16: Not too many people and just a small correction there.
Speaker 16: It's about who's going to lose to Elizabeth Warren in November.
Speaker 16: And let's be honest about it. There are three Republicans running,
Speaker 16: and to the extent that it's of any interest, it's.
Speaker 9: Because two of them.
Speaker 16: Well, one candidate in particular, John Deeton, a political neophyte,
Speaker 16: former marine and an attorney who kind of made his
Speaker 16: bones handling and winning a couple of high profile bitcoin cases.
Speaker 16: And there's a second candidate, Ian Kin, president of the
Speaker 16: Quincy City Council, who also is an advocate of bitcoin deregulation.
Speaker 9: So that's kind of an interesting sidelight to this. It
Speaker 9: hasn't really.
Speaker 16: Emerged as an issue in the primary, which has mostly
Speaker 16: been the third candidate and also Ran, who wears a
Speaker 16: Trump maga hat during debates, scalding the other two for repudiating.
Speaker 9: Trump as they have.
Speaker 16: That's the price of admission if you want to win
Speaker 16: an election in Massachusetts.
Speaker 9: But it's likely to be an issue in the final
Speaker 9: with Warren.
Speaker 4: No question, Wow, we're a maga hat on the debate
Speaker 4: stage who said there were no props? John the crypto
Speaker 4: part of this whole story. Yeah, No.
Speaker 16: I moderated a debate with the three and I asked
Speaker 16: the guy if you wanted to just lift it up
Speaker 16: a little so the camera could get a shot of
Speaker 16: his face and he agreed.
Speaker 8: Okay.
Speaker 4: Fascinating no badges were presented, I suspect. But the crypto
Speaker 4: line is important here on Bloomberg we talk about it
Speaker 4: a lot because Elizabeth Warren has been so skeptical of
Speaker 4: crypto is asking for more regulation. But you're telling me
Speaker 4: that that's not a factor in the campaign.
Speaker 16: Well, it hasn't been in the primary. And you know
Speaker 16: to what extent the Republican nominee tonight can turn it
Speaker 16: into an issue and a run against Warren. I frankly
Speaker 16: don't think it's top of mind for many Massachusetts residents.
Speaker 9: I mean, I don't mean to be flip.
Speaker 16: About suggesting that this is no contest in the fall.
Speaker 16: But the fact is that Massachusetts is a well documented
Speaker 16: history in federal elections of voting for.
Speaker 9: Bacon Ted Kennedy over the years.
Speaker 16: Spend it off all opposition because in large part, not
Speaker 16: just because he was a Kennedy, but because he delivered
Speaker 16: historic amounts of federal funding. They really created the modern
Speaker 16: day Massachusets economy. And Elizabeth Warren has well, well she's
Speaker 16: no Ted Kennedy when it comes to that has had
Speaker 16: some successes lately, most recently a billion dollar grant from
Speaker 16: the Fence to get going on the repairs of the
Speaker 16: bridges leading from the mainland to Cape cod that are
Speaker 16: an absolutely crucial element in Massachusetts church and in the
Speaker 16: overall economy. So I bitcoin is is sure to come
Speaker 16: up because the the Winklevoss Twins of of of what
Speaker 16: was that movie?
Speaker 9: The Facebook movie?
Speaker 8: Uh Twins?
Speaker 6: Who were ye?
Speaker 9: Who were? Could win by Mark Zuckerberg.
Speaker 4: The social network, Thank you, Matt.
Speaker 16: They're big donors to the John Deaton campaign. He's the
Speaker 16: likely winner tonight. He has the most money, been the
Speaker 16: most visible on the air. So we'll see if it
Speaker 16: gets any traction. But I don't hold that much hope
Speaker 16: for it.
Speaker 4: Got it all right, So in our remaining couple of
Speaker 4: minutes here, I need to get to the presidential campaign.
Speaker 4: And I should have already wished you a happy Alston
Speaker 4: Christmas if you don't know what that is. When the
Speaker 4: college kids roll into Alston, mass and they get into
Speaker 4: their new apartment, they find a bunch of stuff on
Speaker 4: the street, big old dirty couches, maybe a busted lamp.
Speaker 4: And this is like Christmas morning when you're a college
Speaker 4: kid moving into an apartment, you'd take that couch with
Speaker 4: the bed bugs, you take the lamp, you put it
Speaker 4: all back in that you make your own little special apartment.
Speaker 4: You might even drive around pick up some stuff off
Speaker 4: the street. John is the Kamala Harris campaign, the Alston
Speaker 4: Christmas of presidential politics. She's picking up the pieces of
Speaker 4: what Joe Biden put together here and is trying to
Speaker 4: turn this into something new. Could she make this a
Speaker 4: living room you want to live in?
Speaker 9: Well, that's a.
Speaker 16: Very interesting analogy, Joe. I don't know that it's fair
Speaker 16: to compare the broken pieces of the Biden campaign to
Speaker 16: the completely disgusting stuff that the kids put out on
Speaker 16: the curb up here.
Speaker 9: I mean, that's it's pretty a little harsh.
Speaker 16: But look, you may have seen the story that there
Speaker 16: are indications that the Trump campaign has given up on
Speaker 16: New Hampshire. There's an email going out to supporters urging them,
Speaker 16: if they want to try to help forget about New Hampshire,
Speaker 16: head to Pennsylvania.
Speaker 9: But look, I think this debate is absolutely.
Speaker 16: Crucial in determining whether this momentum House clearly has continues.
Speaker 9: And I'll tell you one thing, a week from tonight.
Speaker 9: You are not going to see a.
Speaker 16: Lot of Kamala Hars trying to dive into policy details.
Speaker 9: Not like.
Speaker 4: So it's still the personality contest. John, come back and
Speaker 4: talk to us after the debate that of Boston politics.
Speaker 4: John Keller at Large on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 4: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if
Speaker 4: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get
Speaker 4: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday
Speaker 4: from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.