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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo, car Play, and then roud Otto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Here in Washington alongside Joe Matthew. Of course, we've had

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Speaker 2: our eyes on the Middle East for the last several

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Speaker 2: days after the death of six hostages that were being

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Speaker 2: held by Hamas over the weekend, including one American hirscheld Poland,

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Speaker 2: and of course this has put renewed emphasis on the

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Speaker 2: Biden administration's efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement that would

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Speaker 2: see the return of the remaining hostages. The problem is

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Speaker 2: you need two parties to agree to that, Hamas and

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Speaker 2: of course Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who even in

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Speaker 2: the aftermath of this weekend's events, seemed pretty stubborn in

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Speaker 2: his convictions.

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Speaker 3: We say yes, they say no all the time, but

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Speaker 3: they also murder these people, and now we need maximum

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Speaker 3: pressure on Commas. I don't believe that either President Biden

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Speaker 3: or anyone serious about achieving peace and achieving the release

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Speaker 3: would seriously ask Israel Israel to make these concessions. We've

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Speaker 3: already made them.

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Speaker 4: And so we start this day in Washington without a

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Speaker 4: sense of what the next stage in this story is.

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Speaker 4: Much of the focus Kayley has been around the Philadelphia Corridor,

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Speaker 4: that area along the border of Egypt and Gaza. Net

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Speaker 4: Nyahuo says the IDF will not be leaving that area,

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Speaker 4: and that may be what a ceasefire actually hinges on

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Speaker 4: right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, of course, we've heard from John Kirby, the spokesperson

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Speaker 2: for the National Security Council, earlier today when speaking to reporters,

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Speaker 2: he says they're still working on a ceasefire agreement, but

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Speaker 2: we know that the same sticking points have been stuck

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Speaker 2: there sometimes.

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Speaker 4: That's right before we start our conversation with Courtney McBride.

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Speaker 4: I'm glad to say is with us, a Bloomberg national

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Speaker 4: security reporter with us here in Washington. Courtney's great to say,

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Speaker 4: and I hope you had a good long weekend. Thanks

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Speaker 4: for joining us here as we try to figure out

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Speaker 4: with so much noise, exactly where things stand. I believe

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Speaker 4: it was the Washington Post over the weekend at with

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Speaker 4: reporting that the US was working on a best and

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Speaker 4: final offer on a cease fire. Is that negotiating through

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Speaker 4: the media or is that actually where we are in

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Speaker 4: this That.

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Speaker 5: Seems to be where things stand. Secretary of State Anthony

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Speaker 5: Blincoln did say in August when we were in Israel

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Speaker 5: that this could be the last opportunity for a peace agreement.

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Speaker 5: Now he also say that the US is not backing

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Speaker 5: away and will continue to push. But the sense is

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Speaker 5: now that the US negotiating with Israel, Egypt and Katar,

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Speaker 5: working and leasing with Hamas are really trying to get

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Speaker 5: to in the coming days of final offer. Whether they

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Speaker 5: frame it that way publicly is an open question.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course, we've heard briefly from President Biden over

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Speaker 2: this past week, and he was asked whether or not

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Speaker 2: he thought Prime Minister Netanyah, who was doing enough to

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Speaker 2: achieve a ceasefire. He said no. He was also asked

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Speaker 2: when he would speak with him. He said eventually. Why

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Speaker 2: not soon?

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Speaker 5: Courtney, Well, I mean the administration has been pretty clear that,

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Speaker 5: you know, they'll have conversations at whatever level they think

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Speaker 5: are going to be productive. So it's it's possible that

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Speaker 5: at this stage the President doesn't think that he'd be

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Speaker 5: able to accomplish something in terms of moving and deal forward,

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Speaker 5: but we expect to see some sort of proposal, you know,

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Speaker 5: in the coming days. The US has said and Israel

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Speaker 5: has said that Metao agreed to the bridging agreement, but

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Speaker 5: that you know, there continue to be implementation questions, you know,

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Speaker 5: centered on the Philadelphia corridor, as you both mentioned.

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Speaker 4: Could a temporary withdrawal from the corridor be enough to

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Speaker 4: get a cease fire? Even if a temporary cease fire

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Speaker 4: in place, that seems to be something that some members

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Speaker 4: of NTNYA whose work Habinet want but he does not.

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Speaker 5: There's certainly internal disagreement over that within the Israeli government.

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Speaker 5: But you know, as you know, as Natanello said, you know,

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Speaker 5: both parties have to agree, and we're you know, we're

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Speaker 5: we're not sure sort of where where the sticking points are.

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Speaker 5: But the understanding that we have, you know, from from

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Speaker 5: our conversations is both Israel and Hamas are going to

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Speaker 5: have to make some concessions, uh in order to come

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Speaker 5: to an agreement, and we're just not there yet.

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Speaker 2: We have an understanding of whether or not the calculus

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Speaker 2: for the Israeli government changes with the knowledge that Hamas

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Speaker 2: is actually willing to execute the hostages if they think

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Speaker 2: they're on the verge of being rescued. Have they not

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Speaker 2: been operating under the assumption that Hamas was going to

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Speaker 2: want to use these human beings as leverage and therefore

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Speaker 2: they would be somewhat protective and protected until Israel can

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Speaker 2: get to that well.

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Speaker 5: I mean, again, this is an area where there there

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Speaker 5: seems to be disagreement within even the war cabinet. But

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Speaker 5: you know, Hamas has been pretty clear about its its

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Speaker 5: willingness to uh to use, as you said, to use

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Speaker 5: individuals as leverage, as you know, as human shields. But

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Speaker 5: you know, there are many of these Arael governments who

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Speaker 5: say that they are they're going to continue these efforts

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Speaker 5: to rescue the hostages, but there is that possibility that

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Speaker 5: they are killed in the process, either in an operation

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Speaker 5: to rescue them or when Hamas decides that the Israeli

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Speaker 5: government or the military is getting too close.

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Speaker 4: We've been showing images on Bloomberg TV and on YouTube

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Speaker 4: of these massive protests. We saw general strike yesterday Sunday

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Speaker 4: into Monday, tens of thousands of people on the streets. Benjaminettnia,

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Speaker 4: who moved by those optics.

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Speaker 5: I mean, he gave a speech Monday evening that suggested

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Speaker 5: he is firm in his resolve, he is not going

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Speaker 5: to change his position, certainly on the Philadelphia corridor, and

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Speaker 5: that this, if anything, should reinforce the decision to try

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Speaker 5: to seek the rescue of hostages as opposed to simply

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Speaker 5: negotiating or conceding more to Hamas.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Courtney McBride, great reporting. Think you so

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Speaker 2: much for joining us, even though certainly it is difficult

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Speaker 2: subject matter to say the least, especially considering there are

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Speaker 2: still more than a hundred hostages remaining in Gaza at

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Speaker 2: this time, in a number of families who certainly are

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Speaker 2: struggling with this. Right now, we want to continue this

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Speaker 2: conversation with Democratic Congressman Jake Auchencloss of Massachusetts, who is

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Speaker 2: joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Sir, it's

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Speaker 2: great to have you. I know you had previously met

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Speaker 2: with Hirsh's parents, so I'm sure that this hits home

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Speaker 2: in a very real way to you. Given the ties

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Speaker 2: to Massachusetts. What needs to be done so that no

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Speaker 2: other parent or no other family member needs to go

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Speaker 2: through what they are currently going through. What do the

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Speaker 2: next steps need to be for the US and for Israel.

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Speaker 6: I appreciate you having me on this has been a nightmare.

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Speaker 7: I was able to speak with Rachel and John Hirsh's parents,

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Speaker 7: and as you said, Hirsh had strong connections to Massachusetts.

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Speaker 7: I learned from some of his friends and associates about

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Speaker 7: what a warm and wonderful person he was who made

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Speaker 7: everyone around him better. And I had a hard time

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Speaker 7: sleeping that night that I found out that he had

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Speaker 7: been executed in And let's be clear what happened, because

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Speaker 7: it's been ablighted over too frequently. I think over the

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Speaker 7: last week, Hamas forced these six young people to make

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Speaker 7: videos to their family members and then shot them execution style.

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Speaker 7: Hamas is a barbaric, nihilistic organization and it can have

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Speaker 7: no role in post war governance in Gaza because this

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Speaker 7: cycle of the property will repeat itself. They have broken

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Speaker 7: every cease fire they have ever affixed their seal to.

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Speaker 7: They have the destruction of Israel as part of their charter,

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Speaker 7: and they will take and execute more hostages. They will

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Speaker 7: rape more Israelian Arab women, and they will continue to

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Speaker 7: amiserate the Palestinian people.

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Speaker 4: Well, Congressman is a combat veteran marine. You bring a

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Speaker 4: unique perspective that we would like you to draw on

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Speaker 4: in this case, because there are of course questions now

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Speaker 4: about what else the IDF can do here, what else

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Speaker 4: the Israeli military can accomplish, particularly if it involves out

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Speaker 4: of the Philadelphi corridor that we've been talking about along

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Speaker 4: the border with Egypt. As a warrior yourself, is it

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Speaker 4: possible for the IDF to extract hostages using force using

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Speaker 4: rescue operations?

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Speaker 7: As someone who was a platoon commander myself, I think

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Speaker 7: I know enough as a politician to not weigh in

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Speaker 7: on tactical questions that I don't have field.

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Speaker 6: Firsthand knowledge of.

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Speaker 7: But I will of course say that, as Klouswitz wrote

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Speaker 7: more than a century ago, all military operations are an

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Speaker 7: extension of politics by other means. And what that means

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Speaker 7: is it is never sufficient in a war to purely

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Speaker 7: have a military strategem. You also need a political strategem

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Speaker 7: to complement those operations. And this is my frustration with

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Speaker 7: Prime Minister net Yahoo. It's not that he is insisting

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Speaker 7: on Israel's security, It's not that he's insisting on Hamas

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Speaker 7: being excluded from post war governance. I agree with him

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Speaker 7: on those things. My frustration with the Prime Minister is

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Speaker 7: that he is not offering a vision of reconstruction for

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Speaker 7: a Gaza Palestine and led Arab supported Western BacT that

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Speaker 7: would truly drain Hamas's political capital, because that is what

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Speaker 7: Sinwar fears. Sinmaar does not fear destruction. Sinwar does fear reconstruction,

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Speaker 7: and Prime Minish from nt Ya who is not offering that.

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Speaker 2: Well, it does seem, Sir, that the President may share

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Speaker 2: in that frustration. He has said on the record this

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Speaker 2: weekend that no, he does not think Benjamin Netanyah who

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Speaker 2: is doing enough to secure a ceasefire. But as President

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Speaker 2: Biden doing enough, is there more the US government could

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Speaker 2: be doing to exercise leverage over both Israel and Amas here.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think President Biden has walked to tightrope as

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Speaker 7: well as possible in the Middle East. He's rejected calls

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Speaker 7: from the right that would lead to escalation and conflagration

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Speaker 7: in the region through wider military operations. He's also rejected

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Speaker 7: misguided calls from the left that would have led to

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Speaker 7: a early peremptory unilateral ceasefire that would have left the

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Speaker 7: hostages there and left Hamas in power. But there are

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Speaker 7: no good answers on any day in the Middle East,

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Speaker 7: and the President's doing his utmost to get.

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Speaker 6: The hostages home and to you offer.

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Speaker 7: A positive agenda for godz As opposed to the nihilistic

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Speaker 7: one that Hamas offers. I would say, though, that sometimes

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Speaker 7: you got to make the problem bigger. And what I

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Speaker 7: mean by that is this is not just about Israel

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Speaker 7: versus Hamas. This is about an axis of authoritarians and

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Speaker 7: terrorists stretching from China and Russia through Iran and its

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Speaker 7: proxy terra forces in the Middle East. And one thing

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Speaker 7: that we could do to enact more leverage over these

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Speaker 7: proxy terror forces is to cut off Iran's oil revenues

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Speaker 7: by getting China to agree to stop importing Irani and oil.

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Speaker 7: Right now, Iran is filling its coffers with Chinese money.

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Speaker 7: It's using that money to fund procy terra forces in

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Speaker 7: the Middle East. And if we can get that deal

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Speaker 7: with China, which I well will admit would be tough,

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Speaker 7: But if we can get that deal with China, we

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Speaker 7: got a lot more leverage in the Middle East.

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Speaker 4: Well, Congressman, is we consider the strain relations between the

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Speaker 4: Biden White House and Benjamin NETANYAHUO Here we recall hostages

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Speaker 4: being released, a hostage deal with the day that Ronald

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Speaker 4: Reagan was brought into office. And I wonder if you're

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Speaker 4: concerned about a Trump effect here if the narrative is

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Speaker 4: correct that Benjamin Ettyah, who has a better and more

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Speaker 4: trusting relationship with Donald Trump, and that he may be

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Speaker 4: waiting for a Trump administration to strike a deal.

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Speaker 7: I'm not going to appinn on Prime Minister Netanyah, who's

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Speaker 7: domestic or foreign political machinations. The United States is going

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Speaker 7: to work with the elected head of government that Israel sends,

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Speaker 7: and we are going to try to strike a deal

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Speaker 7: for a temporary cease fire and hostage return and also

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Speaker 7: ensure that Hamas is not permanently in place in Gaza.

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Speaker 7: And I think it's important that we remember that the

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Speaker 7: US Israel relationship is grounded on values that are much

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Speaker 7: more resilient than any given personalities, either on our side

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Speaker 7: or on their side. This is about democracy, this is

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Speaker 7: about freedom, this is about.

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Speaker 6: The rule of law.

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Speaker 7: And while we may have frustrations and disagreements, we are

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Speaker 7: on the same side civilization versus barbarism hamas is on

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Speaker 7: the other side.

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Speaker 2: Well, if you, sir, don't want to weigh in much

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Speaker 2: on Israel politics, would love to discuss more US politics

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Speaker 2: with you. Considering you'll be returning here to Washington next

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Speaker 2: week along with your colleagues in the House in the Senate,

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Speaker 2: with just a few weeks to go until a government

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Speaker 2: funding deadline. What exactly are you bracing for, sir? Do

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Speaker 2: you expect you're going to have to vote on a

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Speaker 2: continuing resolution?

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Speaker 7: What I'm bracing for is for the Republicans to refuse

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Speaker 7: to act like grown ups. This is such a preventable

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Speaker 7: government shutdown scenario. Earlier in this Congress, we passed a

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Speaker 7: big bipartisan bill that reduced the federal deficit and responsibly

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Speaker 7: funded federal programs and services, things from Headstart to the

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Speaker 7: US military. It was agreed to by Republican Speaker Kevin

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Speaker 7: McCarthy and Democratic President Joe Biden. It passed with big

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Speaker 7: bipartisan majorities, and then a few weeks later the Republicans

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Speaker 7: ran away from it. I mean, that's not how grown

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Speaker 7: ups operate in Washington, DC. When you shake cans, you

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Speaker 7: are good to your word, and so the Republicans need

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Speaker 7: to act like adults.

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Speaker 4: Well, there's reporting, Congressman, I'd love to know if you're

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Speaker 4: hearing about this, that Speaker Mike Johnson wants to bring

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Speaker 4: a stopgap bill to the floor and combine it with

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Speaker 4: the Save Act. This was the proposal that he went

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Speaker 4: to mar A Lago to roll out with Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: a couple of months ago, requiring proof of citizenship in

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Speaker 4: order to register to vote in a federal election. I

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Speaker 4: know it's primary day up there in Massachusetts, and it's

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Speaker 4: maybe apples and oranges in this case, but the narrative

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Speaker 4: in Washington is this increases the chances of a shutdown.

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Speaker 4: And as we talk to our listeners today on ninety

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Speaker 4: two to nine in Boston, they're listening to us talk

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Speaker 4: right now. Congressman, can you tell them that this is

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Speaker 4: just bluster and that the government will not shut down

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Speaker 4: this fall?

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Speaker 7: If Hakeem Jeffries had the Speaker's galvil, I could tell

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Speaker 7: them that. But with Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, no, I

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Speaker 7: can't tell them that because he doesn't seem willing to

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Speaker 7: act like a grown up.

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Speaker 6: This is exactly what I'm talking about.

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Speaker 7: The Save Act is make up a problem that does

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Speaker 7: not exist, and attaching it to a problem that does exist,

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Speaker 7: which is the federal government imminently shutting down, and trying

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Speaker 7: to conflate the two for political cheap shots.

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Speaker 6: This is obscene.

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Speaker 7: And I would also add that I'm not going to

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Speaker 7: take a lecture from Speaker Mike Johnson about election integrity.

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Speaker 6: This is the man who led the charge to overturn.

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Speaker 7: The election results in twenty twenty and who has consistently

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Speaker 7: supported President Trump and his big lie and has so

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Speaker 7: damaged our democratic institutions.

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Speaker 2: And finally, sir, we have about a minute left on

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Speaker 2: the subject of elections. Your seat, of course is safe.

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Speaker 2: You are running unopposed, but that doesn't go for a

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Speaker 2: number of your colleagues. With Kamala Harris at the top

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Speaker 2: of the Democratic ballot, are you more confident that you

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Speaker 2: will be a member of the majority not the minority

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Speaker 2: come next January?

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Speaker 6: It's going to be a close run thing.

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Speaker 7: Yes, I feel confident, but we got to work for

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Speaker 7: every vote for every day between now an election day.

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Speaker 7: The path to a House majority runs through a couple

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Speaker 7: dozen House seats across a few states, and we need

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Speaker 7: to demonstrate that the Democrats are talking about the future,

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Speaker 7: whereas the Republicans are talking about the past. You got

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Speaker 7: Donald Trump talking about, for example, a tax policy that

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Speaker 7: dates to the eighteen nineties that would raise cost of

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Speaker 7: living for the average American family by at least two

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Speaker 7: thousand dollars, whereas we got Kamala Harris talking about making

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Speaker 7: housing more affordable. That is the contrast. We need to

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Speaker 7: drive home up and down the ticket.

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Speaker 8: Congress.

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Speaker 4: It's good to see if thanks for coming back. We'll

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Speaker 4: meet you back here in Washington, hopefully as soon as

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Speaker 4: next week. Jake Auchincloss, the Democrat of course, Massachusetts fourth District,

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Speaker 4: hailing from the halls of Newtonville, Kayley. Interesting to hear

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Speaker 4: from a Democrat racing for the return of lawmakers at

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Speaker 4: a Republican lighthouse next week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be a big one. You got

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Speaker 2: the lawmakers returning to Capitol Hill, a presidential debate of course,

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Speaker 2: between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. I think we got

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Speaker 2: some inflation data next week as well. CPI and PPI.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, little things here have Hamburg that we focus on,

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Speaker 4: and we all put it together in the mosaic that

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Speaker 4: is American politics. And that's why we're here, of course,

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Speaker 4: on the fastest show in politics. Our panel is up

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Speaker 4: next right here. On Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: ron Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 2: Thirty broadcasting live from Washington alongside Joe Matthew on Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: TV and Radio. And of course, if you're listening to

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Speaker 2: us on the radio in Boston, you were doing so

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Speaker 2: on our new Signal ninety two nine FM. As we've

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Speaker 2: mentioned this hour, Joe, it is primary day in Massachusetts.

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Speaker 2: There are still primary right contests that are happening. In

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Speaker 2: the meantime, the general election, frankly, is about to begin.

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Speaker 2: Not only are we in the post Labor Day sprint

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Speaker 2: to November fifth, but this week some mail in ballot

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Speaker 2: early voting.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I'm so happy you mentioned this. We're talking about

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Speaker 4: the big two month wind up here.

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Speaker 8: It starts this week.

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Speaker 4: North Carolina is where absentee ballots go on Friday, Kayley

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Speaker 4: suggesting that they actually pull this off and the Post

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Speaker 4: Office does its job. People could be voting, submitting votes

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Speaker 4: this week, putting it back in the mailbox on Saturday.

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Speaker 4: Then you go to September sixteenth, and it's Pennsylvania. So

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Speaker 4: the stakes could not be higher. As these two candidates

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Speaker 4: come together in their debate one week from tonight, will

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Speaker 4: of course have special coverage and our panel will be

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Speaker 4: along with us. Yeah, they're here now. Rick Davis and

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Speaker 4: Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Of course, he is partner

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Speaker 4: at stone Court Capital. Genie political science professor, Iona University.

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Speaker 9: Great to see you both, Rick.

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Speaker 4: I just got back from North Carolina last week and

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Speaker 4: you were down there too. By the way, we weren't

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Speaker 4: staying together. Remarkable to see the ads in North Carolina.

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Speaker 4: To actually spend a week in a swing state you

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Speaker 4: cannot hide from Kamala Harris's television messaging. And I see

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Speaker 4: the headline on the terminal Democrats in southern swing state

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Speaker 4: see path for a rare double win. Now you're a Southerner, Rick,

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Speaker 4: look at this first time since Jimmy Carter. They say

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Speaker 4: North Carolina and Georgia. The difference is Jimmy Carter was

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Speaker 4: from Georgia. Is not a liberal Democrat from San Francisco.

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Speaker 4: Are you buying this narrative?

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Speaker 10: You know, I'm made a narrative at a state by

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Speaker 10: state basis, but sure, you know politics has changed since

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Speaker 10: Jimmy Carter. It's not the same Democratic party that he

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Speaker 10: was in. And the reality is they have the toxic

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Speaker 10: combination of growing urban votes, which the Democrats command over

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Speaker 10: eighty percent of their vote comes from these urban areas,

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Speaker 10: and concentrations of black voters, who again on a percentage

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Speaker 10: basis over eighty percent will support Democratic candidates. And so

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Speaker 10: she's just getting in the way of history at this

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Speaker 10: stage in North Carolina. If the demographics continue to expand

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Speaker 10: the way they are, you get more in migration from

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Speaker 10: people who move to the cities where the big paying

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Speaker 10: jobs are, You're going to have states that are going

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Speaker 10: to start voting Democratic more often. And this could be

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Speaker 10: the first time we see it where both of these

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Speaker 10: are in play in you know, two generations since Jimmy Carr.

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Speaker 10: So the reality is this is the wave of the future.

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Speaker 10: If anything, the Democrats are looking over their shoulder to

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Speaker 10: see what remains of their rural strategy, which is now

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Speaker 10: dominated by Maga.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, of course Kamala Harris and Tim Walls were trying

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Speaker 2: to tap back into the rural vote and their bus

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Speaker 2: tour of Georgia last week, and of course in Georgia

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Speaker 2: and North Carolina. In our Bloomberg Morning Consult Swing state

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Speaker 2: polling that came out last week, Kamala Harris is up

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Speaker 2: by two points right now. Joe obviously has mentioned that

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Speaker 2: money is getting spent there in terms of advertisements. But

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Speaker 2: I wonder, Genie, how crucial personnel is too part of

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Speaker 2: our reporting here. It's that in these southern states Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris and her campaign have signed up more than fifty

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Speaker 2: thousand volunteers. Is that, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: what makes a real difference?

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Speaker 9: It absolutely well.

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Speaker 11: First of all, Kayleie, I don't know why you and

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Speaker 11: I weren't in North Carolina. I guess that's where.

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Speaker 2: Ever didn't get the invite.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, we'll go down next. But you know, absolutely, especially

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Speaker 11: in a race that is this raizor thin, this is

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Speaker 11: gonna come down to a ground game and who can

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Speaker 11: get out the vote. And so that's where you have

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Speaker 11: this big advantage when they're April able to raise the

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Speaker 11: enthusiasm and that's what's been so, you know, really stunning

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Speaker 11: about what Kamala Harris and her team have been able

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Speaker 11: to do in about six weeks. Is the enthusiasm. Enthusiasm

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Speaker 11: number we saw out of Gallop for instance, that has

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Speaker 11: changed now in the double digits for Harris, and it

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Speaker 11: was in the single digits for Trump just back in March.

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Speaker 11: So that enthusiasm gets people out on the ground, and

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Speaker 11: that's critically important. So that, you know, we also saw

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Speaker 11: over the weekend Harris and Waltz out there in the

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Speaker 11: rust belt trying to do the same thing with their

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Speaker 11: union contacts, get their unions not just through the endorsements

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Speaker 11: and the leadership, but members on the ground out because

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Speaker 11: they too are well organized. So this is very very important,

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Speaker 11: and I think Republicans are starting to sweat this a

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Speaker 11: bit because, as you guys just talked about, voting starts

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Speaker 11: imminently and it continues for about sixty days.

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Speaker 8: That's right.

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Speaker 4: All I know is this whole show just spends a

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Speaker 4: week in Chicago together, and nobody was talking about going

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Speaker 4: on a vacation to get GINI Rick, what do you

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Speaker 4: make of this idea of capitalizing on early voting Friday?

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Speaker 4: Is North Carolina. The sixteenth is then Pennsylvania. How does

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Speaker 4: that train your focus on where to spend AD dollars?

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Speaker 8: Yeah?

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Speaker 10: No, Look, I mean, as you mentioned at the top

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Speaker 10: of the hour here, the rest of the country is

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Speaker 10: not seeing the campaign for president that's going on in

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Speaker 10: seven targeted swing states. They're not seeing the non stop advertising,

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Speaker 10: they're not seeing the events, they're not seeing the pop

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Speaker 10: up of headquarters all over the state, the massive amount

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Speaker 10: of volunteers showing up. So it's like night and day.

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Speaker 10: And so when you look at the microcosm on the

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Speaker 10: kind of buy that the Harris campaign just did, and

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Speaker 10: that is very strategic because they want to get all

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Speaker 10: the best ad adjacencies that they can get, and if

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Speaker 10: they buy now, they're going to get them. Everybody who

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Speaker 10: buys later on is going to have to take whatever

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Speaker 10: is available. So kudos to them for getting out with

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Speaker 10: this big buy. But I remember it's like deja vous

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Speaker 10: all over again two thousand and eight campaign. We didn't

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Speaker 10: look as hard as we should have at North Carolina's

439
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 10: early voting and it's been happening for a long time.

440
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 10: And Barack Obama held rally after rally where he could

441
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 10: sign up voters at his rallies, and we woke up

442
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 10: to find out that we lost massively North Carolina for

443
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 10: the first time in a long time. And the reality

444
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 10: was sixty five percent of the election voters had already

445
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,640
Speaker 10: voted by the time election day had come about. We

446
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 10: lost North Carolina a week before the election was even held.

447
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 10: And so these things matter a lot right now. And

448
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 10: with Harris's momentum, it's got to be very troubling to

449
00:22:55,480 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 10: the campaign because you know, he's got to get more

450
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 10: action going on, because he can't out buy her with

451
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 10: these ads, he can't outground game her. In fact, he's

452
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 10: got you basically the Elon Musk of super Pack running

453
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 10: his ground game in North Carolina, which is just getting started.

454
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,879
Speaker 10: So he's got to actually show up and dominate the

455
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 10: airwaves and hope his vote gets out. And so the

456
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 10: reality is taking a day off like Labor Day and

457
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,399
Speaker 10: not going to a place like North Carolina is a

458
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 10: huge strategic failure for the Trump campaign.

459
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 2: Well, Rick, it was just last week that I had

460
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: a chance to speak with Laura Trump, the co chair

461
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 2: of the RNC, who said that it has gotten tighter

462
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 2: in North Carolina and Pennsylvania those are two states that

463
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 2: the party is considering spending more money in. But with

464
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: what you just said, is it going to be too

465
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 2: late by the time those resources are actually deployed for

466
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 2: it to make the difference it could have if they

467
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: hadn't been essentially assuming North Carolina was in their pocket

468
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 2: up until six weeks ago.

469
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 10: Absolutely, I mean, right now you are playing a rearguard action.

470
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 10: If you're not ready to start assessing your voter I

471
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 10: D work, you know, in other words, you know, identifying

472
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 10: all your voters up until this point in time, and

473
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 10: then now going to them and saying, please fill out

474
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 10: your ballot requests and get it in. And and that's

475
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 10: happening on the Democratic side. We know they've been preparing

476
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 10: for this, and all of a sudden you have this

477
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 10: influx of new voters who are willing to support Harris.

478
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 10: Obviously the momentum is shifting to her since Joe Biden

479
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 10: got out of the race, and and and and that's

480
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 10: what all these voters are doing who are flooding these headquarters,

481
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 10: is they're calling voters saying, are you now a Harris supporter?

482
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 10: And if so, can we make sure you've got your

483
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 10: ballot and you get it as soon as you can.

484
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 8: Uh.

485
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 10: The Trump campaign is still fighting the image that Donald

486
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 10: Trump promotes all the time, which is you know that

487
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 10: that that you know, absentee voting or early voting is

488
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 10: somehow violating the law. And so Republican voters are sort

489
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,919
Speaker 10: of stuck. They used to be extremely good at this,

490
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 10: but now they're stuff because what the Trump campaign is

491
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 10: telling him is one thing, and what they ought to

492
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 10: be doing is another.

493
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 4: Remarkable moment.

494
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 3: We're in here.

495
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 4: Ballot's go out starting Friday, Genie, we can't talk about

496
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 4: the South without looking at Florida, and some voters there

497
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 4: might have whiplash after listening to Donald Trump over the

498
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 4: course of the weekend. He started by talking about the

499
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 4: government paying for all IVF for at least mandating that

500
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 4: insurance companies do that. Then, after being pressed on this

501
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 4: ballot question of Florida amendment, that he will now vote

502
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 4: against a proposed amendment to expand abortion access. This is

503
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 4: obviously fertile ground for the Harris campaign, and they've been

504
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 4: active in trying to counter message Donald Trump. Is it

505
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 4: possible for Donald Trump to ever get on message when

506
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 4: it comes to the issue of abortion.

507
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 11: It's going to be very tough. You know, Democrats are

508
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 11: taking it right to Donald Trump. They're starting this Reproductive

509
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 11: Freedom Bust tour or guests where in his backyard and

510
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 11: on beach Florida, because they too, just like Donald Trump,

511
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 11: are looking at these numbers. The latest IPSOS poll has

512
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris up point thirteen or plus thirteen rather with women.

513
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 11: That gender divide is real, and much of it comes

514
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 11: back to the issue of reproductive rights and abortion. That's

515
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 11: why we've seen him struggling in the area of abortion,

516
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 11: what to do on the amendment in Florida, talking about

517
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 11: IVF as it's going to be paid for by the

518
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 11: government and even health insurance. Even people in his own

519
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 11: party are saying that's a little too fast. We support IVF,

520
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 11: but we can't afford that. He's struggling because he knows

521
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 11: he wants to do two things he can't do. He

522
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 11: wants to take a bow for overturning Row and he

523
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 11: also doesn't want to be hit by the backlash of that,

524
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 11: and that's very tough to do. And I think all

525
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 11: of this makes what happens next Tuesday that much more

526
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:59,199
Speaker 11: important because things are moving very quickly, and that is

527
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 11: going to be one big opportunity for Donald Trump to

528
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 11: turn this thing around and get back on his feet

529
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,479
Speaker 11: and make some of these hits on Harris stick. And

530
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 11: so I think that debate is just so much more

531
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 11: important now than it even was a week ago.

532
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 2: Today, Geenie, we just have about a minute left. But

533
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 2: of course, this abortion issue has made some Democrats suggest

534
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: that Florida could potentially be in play for the party,

535
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 2: and it's also looking at down ballot races in that regard.

536
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 2: On that subject, Kamala Harris, according to people familiar who've

537
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: told Bloomberg, is donating twenty four and a half million

538
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 2: dollars to down ballot, ten million dollars to the DSEC,

539
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: to the D Triple C as well even sending money

540
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 2: to gubernatorial races. Is that a signal of confidence that

541
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 2: she is enough money to compete or is that a

542
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 2: signal that she's aware that even if she wins, it

543
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 2: doesn't matter if she doesn't have Congress along with her.

544
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 11: You know, I think it's actually a signal of both.

545
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 11: You know, it is a signal that she has benefited

546
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 11: from some of the most impressive fundraising we have ever

547
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 11: seen in either party in a very short period of

548
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 11: breaking all kinds of fundraising rules, are all kind of

549
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 11: fundraising records rather, And it's also the fact that she

550
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 11: has this money, and she understands if she wins the presidency,

551
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 11: but she doesn't keep the Senate or you know, at

552
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 11: least make room in the House, she's going to have

553
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 11: difficulty passing her agenda.

554
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 9: So I think it's both.

555
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true, all right. Jeanie Schanzeno and Rick Davis,

556
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 2: our signature political panel, thank you so much for joining.

557
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 2: We'll be right back on Bloomberg TV and radio.

558
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

559
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evo CarPlay and

560
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

561
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

562
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

563
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 4: We've got our eyes on the races that matter. Charlie's

564
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 4: keeping you honest on the market. So we'll hear from

565
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 4: Charlie again in about fifteen minutes. That's the way we

566
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 4: do it around here. If you're joining us in Boston

567
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 4: on ninety two nine FM, you can get used to

568
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 4: that unbiased news coverage and talk with political leaders. Every

569
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 4: day here on Bloomberg Radio, and we're awfully glad that.

570
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 9: You're with us.

571
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 4: I knew it was real this morning when Bill Galvin,

572
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 4: the Secretary of State, cast his ballot at nine thirty

573
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 4: am on this primary day in Brighton. I wonder what

574
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 4: my friends on Guest Street are doing today. I wonder

575
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 4: what they're having lunch. What are they having for lunch

576
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 4: right now at the stockyard. Don't answer that, because we

577
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 4: have new polling on the presidential race as well, and

578
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 4: it's coming from Suffolk University. Our friend David Paleologos out

579
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 4: with the big story today in USA Today. Check this out,

580
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 4: one week ahead of the debate, Kamala Harris leading Donald

581
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 4: Trump with rising enthusiasm. The headline number will start you

582
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,479
Speaker 4: off with forty eight percent of forty three percent. It

583
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 4: is within the poll's margin as we read, with at

584
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 4: least one televised debate ahead, and one in ten voters

585
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 4: say they may change their mind yet or haven't decided.

586
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 4: There he is now, you can see him on YouTube.

587
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 4: Let's bring him in for our radio audience in Boston

588
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 4: and around the country. David Paleologos, of course, director of

589
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 4: the Suffolk University Political Research Center. David, great to have

590
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 4: you back. The last time we spoke was right after

591
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 4: that change at the top of the ticket happened. We've

592
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 4: heard a lot of people talking about honeymoon phases. Where's

593
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 4: the post convention bump? What are you actually seeing in

594
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 4: your research?

595
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 12: You know, we've been posters have been whiplashed so much

596
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 12: by the events over the last month or two, between

597
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 12: the Trump Biden debate and the you know, and then

598
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 12: Biden getting out, the assassination attempt, Kamala Harris taking over

599
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 12: the Democratic invention.

600
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 8: Now we have the debate next week.

601
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 12: So it's been it's been such a whip saw for us,

602
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 12: and in many cases we've had to just crumble up

603
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 12: the sheet and start all over with Napoleon again.

604
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 8: So it's been an incredible lot.

605
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 12: You know, six weeks I don't think for summer, six

606
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 12: weeks before presidential election, I don't think I've ever seen

607
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 12: any like this.

608
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 5: Man.

609
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 4: That's saying a lot from somebody with some experience. You're

610
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 4: talking to a thousand likely voters. You're not just registered,

611
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 4: and we do want to make that delineation August twenty

612
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 4: five to twenty eight. Are you surprised that Kamala Harris

613
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 4: and Tim Walls are still holding the momentum at this point.

614
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 4: There were people talking about Honeymoons a couple of weeks ago.

615
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 8: David, Yeah, no, I am not surprised.

616
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 12: And the reason I'm not surprised is because what moved

617
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 12: the most were areas that Joe Biden, core Democratic areas

618
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 12: where Joe Biden was failing in terms of margins. He

619
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 12: wasn't doing as well among Black voters, Hispanic voters ages

620
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 12: eighteen to thirty four, those individuals who had householding comes

621
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 12: less than twenty thousand. Those are core Democratic constituencies. And

622
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 12: then overnight you saw shift of you know, from Trump

623
00:31:56,040 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 12: to Harris twenty four points, twenty six points in the

624
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 12: case of Hispanic voter is eighteen points Black voters plus

625
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 12: seventeen big shifts over what was happening with Biden as

626
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 12: the nominee.

627
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 8: Those constituencies aren't going to go leave again.

628
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 4: So that's that's interesting in the mix well the problem

629
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 4: and you know, look, the favorables look pretty great for

630
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris here, she's outperforming Donald Trump, and a lot

631
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 4: of questions here even gosh, we saw a poll from

632
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 4: ABC IPSOS she's beating him on mental acuity, understanding the

633
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 4: problems of people like you representing personal values. But all

634
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 4: of these polls, including our Bloomberg Swing State pole David,

635
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 4: show that Donald Trump continues to lead on the big stuff.

636
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 4: Who do you trust to handle the economy?

637
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:46,719
Speaker 1: For instance?

638
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 4: What are you learning about that? And how does Kamala

639
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 4: Harris change that narrative?

640
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 8: Same here?

641
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 12: You know, we found that Donald Trump was winning double

642
00:32:55,680 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 12: digits among independents on the economy, on immigration, and Kamala

643
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 12: Harris was winning on race relations and healthcare. And so

644
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 12: when you look at when you add it all up,

645
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 12: the issues of the economy, the issue of the economy

646
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 12: is the number one issue. Immigration has fallen back to

647
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 12: a bud with a bunch of other issues.

648
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 8: So it's really all about the economy right now.

649
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 12: And as you mentioned the Swing states, part of the

650
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 12: challenge for posters measuring the swing states is that there's

651
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 12: been a big registration shift since twenty twenty. In Pennsylvania,

652
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 12: there's three hundred less thousand less net democratic advantage in Pennsylvania,

653
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,719
Speaker 12: North Carolina, you've got Arizona where you've got shifts of

654
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 12: less Democrats registered to vote, and that democratic advantage is less.

655
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 8: So those are areas that.

656
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 12: I've become a challenge for us when we're pulling these

657
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 12: swing states.

658
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 4: Man, you're just swimming in a sea of noise here.

659
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 4: I realize right now, David, But as the debate one

660
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 4: week from tonight, the single most important event between now

661
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 4: and November.

662
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 12: Absolutely, where else are you going to get a fifty

663
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 12: million audience crowd?

664
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 8: I mean, I mean viewership.

665
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 12: You know you're not even going to get it with

666
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 12: targeted social media and TV ads, So you know, I

667
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 12: mean maybe the World Series, you know, in late October.

668
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 12: Maybe I don't know, but you know, this is this

669
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 12: is pretty much another one of those inflection points that

670
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 12: we've been you know, kind.

671
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 8: Of thrown back and forth.

672
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 12: And after the debate, you know, we're not fielding any

673
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 12: polls this week. I made the decision that if we

674
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:41,359
Speaker 12: fielded a poll, even in Pennsylvania or Michigan's.

675
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 8: Totally change already dated.

676
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 12: We're in the field a lot right after the debate

677
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:46,720
Speaker 12: next week.

678
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 4: Incredible. I look forward to it. Come back talk to

679
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 4: just tell us about what you learned. David Paleo logos

680
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 4: with his finger on the pulse here at Suffolk University.

681
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:56,360
Speaker 9: You can read more.

682
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 4: About the poll in USA today, but we went through

683
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,839
Speaker 4: some of the numbers that matter here as a turn

684
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 4: attention to a story in the Globe that made me

685
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 4: say what the Boston Globe, a guy named Tom Mountain,

686
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 4: you may have never heard of, served as one of

687
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 4: several vice chairs for Donald Trump's effort in Massachusetts, put

688
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 4: out an email to Trump volunteers to say, quote, the

689
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 4: campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a

690
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 4: battleground state unquote, advising them to direct their attention somewhere

691
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 4: else like Pennsylvania. Now, we had a voice very familiar

692
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 4: with New Hampshire politics and its connection to Massachusetts and

693
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 4: the city of Boston. She used to speak for Charlie

694
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 4: Baker when he was the most popular governor in America

695
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 4: and is now a co founder of South and Hill Strategies.

696
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 4: Lizzie Geiton Republican Strategists. Great to see you, Lizzie, Welcome

697
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 4: back to Bloomberg. You know we're on the big blowtors

698
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 4: now ninety two to nine FM in Boston, so you

699
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 4: have to be careful what you say. But I'm curious

700
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 4: your thought on this. Are Republicans turning away from New Hampshire.

701
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 5: Recount.

702
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 13: New Hampshire out and I think, as your former guest

703
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 13: just said, all these polls are within the margin of error,

704
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 13: everything's raised within. We have an unprecedented situation where the

705
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 13: presidential nominee for president is one of the most unknown

706
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 13: candidates in history, and there's a lot that can happen

707
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 13: between now and election day.

708
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 4: Well, that's for sure. So where would you spend your

709
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 4: attention if you're a Republican trying to convince this Apparently

710
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 4: one out of ten voters who are undecided or could

711
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 4: change their mind, according to this Suffolk University poll.

712
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 3: We were just.

713
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 4: Talking about, how do you get to them? Is it policy?

714
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 4: Is it personality? Donald Trump is trying to recreate the

715
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 4: recipe that got him elected in twenty sixteen, when he

716
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 4: was largely saying anything he wanted to. Now his campaign

717
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 4: is trying to direct him to be a more disciplined candidate,

718
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 4: which one works well.

719
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 13: I think Trump is a known quantity. We've seen his

720
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 13: campaign style for years. We know how he acts, and

721
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,720
Speaker 13: he's very much you had every rock overturned in the media.

722
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 13: We can't say the same for Kamala herrits unknown she's

723
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 13: not doing interviews, she's reading off a teleprompter. We're not

724
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 13: really getting to know what's behind her policies, why she

725
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 13: flip flopped on certain issues. And don't forget as all

726
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,439
Speaker 13: this is happening regardless of the fact that Kamala Harris

727
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 13: has had an excellent start, she's had a great start

728
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 13: coming out as a nominee, She very much, you know,

729
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 13: has other directions that her her race could go. And

730
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 13: for Donald Trump, the top issues that people still really

731
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 13: care about, and this was just reinforced with the Suffold

732
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,800
Speaker 13: poll are the economy, our immigration, and he has the

733
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 13: upper hand with those issues.

734
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 4: New Hampshire's an oddball though, right, Lizzie, you know this

735
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 4: more than anybody when we were together covering the New

736
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 4: Hampshire primary, and you were kind to join us from

737
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 4: the Radison on Elm Street, which seemed awfully quiet this

738
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 4: time around because it was the inevitable primary. Remember, there

739
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 4: were so many nicky Haley supporters we talked to who

740
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 4: wanted to turn the page from Donald Trump, who wanted

741
00:37:55,280 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 4: an older style of conservative traditional style of conservative Republican politics.

742
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 4: Who do they vote for? Can Kamala Harris pick off

743
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 4: any of them.

744
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 13: I think it really matters what is keeping people up

745
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 13: at night. Are they really going to go with Trump

746
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 13: as a candidate who they think they know, They've seen

747
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,919
Speaker 13: what he can do on the economy, they know how

748
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 13: he's going to be in the White House, or are

749
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 13: they going to go with an unknown candidate in Harris?

750
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 13: And Harris, by the way, she owns the Biden record,

751
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 13: and we saw a tremendous increase from Democrats in particular

752
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,760
Speaker 13: for enthusiasm when she went to the top of the ticket.

753
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 13: Will she maintain that. What will happen between now an

754
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 13: election day that is going to influence whether or not

755
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 13: people think that they that she deserves their vote.

756
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 4: Sure interesting analysis over the weekend of the Washington Post

757
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 4: Lizzie looking at the where the ads spending is actually

758
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 4: being focused in this campaign. The bulk of it is

759
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 4: on attack ads against Kamala Harris, obviously coming from not

760
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 4: just the Trump campaign but Republican packs, super PACs and

761
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 4: so forth. Twenty one percent were pro Harris ads that

762
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 4: drew a contrast with Trump, but fifty seven percent or

763
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 4: attacks on Harris. And The idea here is that the

764
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 4: Trump campaign, to your point, is a known entity. Everyone

765
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 4: knows probably what they're going to ever know about Donald

766
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 4: Trump at this point, and so the strategy is to

767
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 4: go negative on Kamala Harris to try to identify her

768
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 4: before she can Does that work? Does negative work in

769
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 4: New Hampshire?

770
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 13: Well, we've seen how negative can work in the past,

771
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 13: and I think it can work in New Hampshire just

772
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 13: as well as it can in any other parts of

773
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 13: the country. And part of the reason for that is

774
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 13: because she's such an unknown candidate. So part of the

775
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 13: Trump campaign's responsibility is to indict her, to indict her policies,

776
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,840
Speaker 13: to tie her to the Biden administration and their failed

777
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,879
Speaker 13: record on the economy, on immigration, to call her out

778
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 13: for her flip flopping on policies, and to hold her accountable.

779
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 13: And you're going to continue to hear a lot more

780
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 13: negative ads and positive it's generally just the tenor these

781
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 13: days that seem to move voters. But you're also just

782
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 13: going to see people looking to what she is saying

783
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 13: and holding her accountable for what's how she's going to

784
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 13: be different if she is from what the Biden administration

785
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 13: has been the past four years.

786
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 4: Just a minute left, Lizzie, Is it time then for

787
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 4: Harris to go negative or continue a positive message. You're

788
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:24,280
Speaker 4: trying to reintroduce herself.

789
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,720
Speaker 13: I think that you're seeing her try to introduce herself

790
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,839
Speaker 13: to the American people. It's a very short amount of time.

791
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 13: It's completely unprecedented. But I also believe that for Kamala Harris,

792
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 13: she's just hoping that she can kind of stay high level.

793
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 13: I think she's avoiding these interviews on purpose so she

794
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 13: doesn't have to get into the nitty gritty. I think

795
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 13: where she is and continue this momentum through election day

796
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,399
Speaker 13: is where she would like to stay. Of course, all

797
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,360
Speaker 13: eyes around September tenth to see how that debate shapes

798
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 13: up and if she can hang on.

799
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 4: It's only a week away, and of course she did

800
00:40:58,000 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 4: the one interview.

801
00:40:58,640 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 9: We'll see what follows.

802
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 4: Lizzie is the one they call when Republicans want to

803
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 4: craft messaging and direct their ad dollars at southen Hill Strategies.

804
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:07,760
Speaker 4: Lizzie Guden, thanks so much for the insights.

805
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

806
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

807
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 1: roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

808
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

809
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

810
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 4: Thanks for being with us here on the fastest show

811
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 4: in politics, Ballance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

812
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington, where we've

813
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:41,360
Speaker 4: got tabs on the presidential campaign and we are waiting

814
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 4: for the return of lawmakers. That's not until next week, Kaylee.

815
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 4: A week from tonight the first presidential debate between Donald

816
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 4: Trump and Kamala Harris. That's going to coincide with the

817
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 4: return of lawmakers. So it might be a little bit

818
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 4: of noise around here as we, of course try to

819
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 4: get a sense of where this race stands. With now

820
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,399
Speaker 4: two months to go, it's nine weeks from tonight. We're

821
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 4: actually talking about, yeah, election Day and early voting. As

822
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 4: we discussed with Rick and Jenie mail in, ballots start

823
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 4: going out in swing states as.

824
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 1: Soon as this Friday.

825
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 4: Remembering that the national polls we look at don't mean

826
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:14,919
Speaker 4: a lot when you start digging into the states.

827
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,879
Speaker 2: Well, and sping states certainly matter. The vote demographics within

828
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 2: the matter as well. If you're talking states like Michigan,

829
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 2: and Pennsylvania, the union vote is especially important, and that

830
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 2: of course is something now that we're coming off of

831
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 2: Labor Day, the holiday yesterday that candidates, at least on

832
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 2: the Democratic side were focused on Kamala Harris and Joe

833
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 2: Biden together in Pittsburgh for.

834
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 4: The first time on stage. And we can qualify that

835
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 4: by the way we said that when they made their

836
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 4: first appearance together that was an official White House event

837
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 4: on the campaign trail. Though Harris joins Biden in a

838
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:45,879
Speaker 4: day that was dedicated to labor.

839
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:47,760
Speaker 8: We know the simple truth.

840
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 6: Wall Street did not build America.

841
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 14: The middle class build America, and unions built the middle class.

842
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 1: When unions are strong, America is strong.

843
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 14: We will continue to defend and social Security and Medicare

844
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 14: and Fantion. We will continue to strengthen America's manufacturing sector.

845
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,720
Speaker 2: And of course not a coincidence that this was happening

846
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 2: in the critical state of Pennsylvania, given the Union representation there.

847
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 2: According to the latest polling from Emerson College in Pennsylvania,

848
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 2: it is a literal dead heat between these two candidates

849
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 2: forty eight to forty eight. Harris has an edge in Michigan,

850
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 2: another union important state, as well as Georgia and Nevada.

851
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 2: Trump's up in Wisconsin and North Carolina and Arizona. So

852
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 2: it is too Emerson Polling.

853
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 15: We go now.

854
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 2: Spencer Kimball, who's the executive director there, is joining us

855
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg TV in radio. Spencer, it's nice to

856
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 2: have you back, especially as we broadcast this first day

857
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 2: on ninety two nine FM in Boston. When we look

858
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 2: at the swing state map right now, and our polling

859
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 2: does show this as well, this notion that it is

860
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 2: wider for Harris than it was for Joe Biden. What

861
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 2: are you seeing in the numbers in terms of the

862
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 2: way in which that is presenting itself, the kinds of

863
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,320
Speaker 2: voters that may be more likely to vote for Harris

864
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 2: than they were for the sitting president.

865
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 15: Well, Kaylee, I think we start off with the younger voter.

866
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 15: They've been sitting on the sideline for six seven months

867
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,320
Speaker 15: in our polling, Remember we were talking about RFK Junior,

868
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 15: you know, getting five six percent. That was primarily coming

869
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 15: from younger voters who had in passed you know, the

870
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 15: past election, voted for Biden. So we've seen that group

871
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 15: come back to Harris. I think what's surprising to some

872
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 15: of us is that she's been also able to hold

873
00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 15: on to the older vote that Biden has brought onto,

874
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 15: you know, the campaign that was voting for him. So

875
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 15: she's kind of having the best of both places, getting

876
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:42,320
Speaker 15: that youth vote back but also holding onto that older vote.

877
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 4: Well, it's interesting, Spencer, when it comes to motivation and activation,

878
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 4: it becomes a different question. Are the students rolling out

879
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,320
Speaker 4: of the little building today on Tremont Streak and actually

880
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 4: get out of bed and vote on election day? We

881
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 4: can talk about how they feel right now, but turning

882
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 4: out is the actual job.

883
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 8: Well, that is the key.

884
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:08,799
Speaker 15: We've seen these numbers where voter registrations up maybe one

885
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 15: hundred and one hundred and fifty thousand some of these

886
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:14,879
Speaker 15: key states. Overall, about eighty percent of those people are

887
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 15: going to come out and vote. And you've got to

888
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 15: remember that the election day. As you mentioned, voters are

889
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,240
Speaker 15: going to start getting ballots this Friday, maybe early next week,

890
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,360
Speaker 15: so they've got seven eight weeks to fill those ballots

891
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:28,959
Speaker 15: out and send them back in and that might help

892
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 15: increase some of that turnout with those younger voters who

893
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 15: may get distracted on election day.

894
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,840
Speaker 2: Of course, we're looking specifically at younger voters, voters of

895
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 2: all types in the swing states that ultimately will decide

896
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 2: this election. But it is worth pointing out that Emerson,

897
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,279
Speaker 2: as well as our swing state polling and others, are

898
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 2: really now just looking at the seven When the conversation

899
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 2: what six weeks ago was whether or not we should

900
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 2: be counting states like Virginia or even New Hampshire as

901
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 2: swing states. It does seem, according to the latest news

902
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 2: from the Trump campaign, that New Hampshire is maybe no

903
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 2: longer some a state that they think they could win.

904
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 2: Would you write it off completely, Spencer, I wouldn't write

905
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 2: it off completely.

906
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 15: But we had a chance to pull New Hampshire a

907
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 15: couple weeks ago, and we had it between five and

908
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 15: seven points, five points in a head to head and

909
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 15: seven points when they added on those additional candidates, which

910
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 15: was very similar to how Biden performed in twenty twenty,

911
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 15: which is a lot different than how it looked in

912
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 15: twenty sixteen when it was within a point. So what

913
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 15: we were seeing when Biden after that debate, Biden's numbers

914
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 15: were dropping across the country and New Hampshire was coming

915
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 15: back into play. As you mentioned, Virginia, now there has

916
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 15: been some polling in Virginia since Harris has joined the

917
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 15: or taken over the ticket, and it still has it

918
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 15: at three or four points. That's very close. Virginia has

919
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 15: moved to about a nine to ten point Democratic state,

920
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 15: so still strong for the Democrats. And then, of course

921
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 15: Minnesota was a state that thought folks thought were in play.

922
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 15: But with vice president and Tim Wall's on the ticket,

923
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 15: you'd presume Minnesota should be pretty safe seven to ten points.

924
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 4: Spencer, We're going to take a look at the stock

925
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 4: market here in a conversation with Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle in

926
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 4: just a couple of moments. This is one of the

927
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,360
Speaker 4: worst days in recent memory for the markets, the S

928
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 4: and P five hundred. We're looking at losses one and

929
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 4: a half to two and a half percent, depending on

930
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 4: the index you're looking for. And I bring it up

931
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:26,760
Speaker 4: because we keep seeing consistently in polling that while Kamala

932
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 4: Harris has topped Donald Trump and some metrics has come

933
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 4: to even with him and some others, she's still lagging

934
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 4: significantly when it comes to who do you trust to

935
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 4: handle the economy, who do you trust to fight inflation?

936
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 4: Are you seeing that on the same level in the

937
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 4: swing states.

938
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 15: Yes, well, the economy is the top issue. It's between

939
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 15: forty and fifty percent for voters, and then who's going

940
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 15: to do best on the economy breaks for the republic

941
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 15: it breaks for Trump roughly two to one. Now, there

942
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 15: is a subset that we ask about affordable housing that's

943
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 15: also a cost to living, and on the issue of

944
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 15: affordable housing, Harris is seen as the champion of that

945
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 15: nearly two to one. So as she talks about the

946
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:11,720
Speaker 15: economy cost of living, I think she'll try to focus

947
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:15,839
Speaker 15: in on that affordable housing issue. Trump on the other hand,

948
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:18,920
Speaker 15: and you see this in the numbers, particularly dealing with

949
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 15: the market those fifty to sixty year olds, people that

950
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 15: are entering into retirement age. You've seen those numbers switch

951
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,760
Speaker 15: over to the Republicans over the last couple of years,

952
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:32,279
Speaker 15: and they've been pretty strong. So we'll see again if

953
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:35,839
Speaker 15: Trump can increase that, you know, that vote, or if

954
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 15: the Democrats can make some inroads with those voters.

955
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 2: Spencer, Obviously, we spend a lot of our time thinking

956
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 2: about the issues at play in this presidential election, but

957
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 2: it goes for elections of all kinds, including congressional ones.

958
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 2: This is something we were just talking about with Rick

959
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Shanzino. This notion that Kamala Harris is

960
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:57,240
Speaker 2: now shifting more than twenty million dollars to congressional efforts

961
00:48:57,280 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 2: to get Democrats elected. It is noteworthy in your latest

962
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 2: pulling in these very same swing states, the Democrats are

963
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:07,320
Speaker 2: winning by pretty significant margins across the board. How should

964
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:08,880
Speaker 2: we be considering the map when it comes to the

965
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 2: Senate and House with Harris at the top of the ticket.

966
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,360
Speaker 15: Well, the Senate's going to be a more difficult challenge

967
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:18,239
Speaker 15: for the Democrats based on West Virginia probably swinging to

968
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,839
Speaker 15: the Republicans and then having to defend seats in Montana

969
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 15: and Ohio. But there are some good news out there

970
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 15: in Nevada, Arizona. Maybe in Michigan's a little tighter, but

971
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 15: certainly out west the Democrats are holding those seats pretty strongly.

972
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 15: But then we get to the House, that's a different challenge.

973
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 15: One more point on the Senate, I guess would be

974
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 15: Texas and Florida. We're pulling them this week. We'll have

975
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 15: a better sense if those races will be competitive for

976
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:49,319
Speaker 15: the Democrats to try to pick up a seat, and

977
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:51,720
Speaker 15: then they could swing or hold on to the Senate.

978
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 15: The House is a different challenge in that it seems

979
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 15: that the Democrats are in good place. Remember it's only

980
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 15: like eight or nine seats four or five that they

981
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,320
Speaker 15: have to flip to take back the majority in the House,

982
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 15: and that's really up for grabs. And what's interesting about

983
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 15: spending this money down ticket. You know, if you look

984
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 15: at like North Carolina's first district, that's a toss up district.

985
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 15: North Carolina is a swing state for Harris. So if

986
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 15: she's able to increase turnout in that first district win

987
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 15: that seat, that might help her out at the top

988
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 15: of the ticket for the presidential electoral votes.

989
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 4: Spencer is great to have you back. Hailing from Emerson

990
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,720
Speaker 4: College Polling, where he is the executive director, Spencer Kimball

991
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 4: back with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio with a

992
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:39,720
Speaker 4: nod to our listeners on ninety two to nine FM

993
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 4: in Boston. This is the type of conversation we have

994
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 4: every day here on the fastest show in politics.

995
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:52,359
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

996
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on EMO CarPlay and

997
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 1: then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App, listen on

998
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:01,359
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast a watch us live

999
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:04,440
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

1000
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 4: We keep tabs on what's happening in Israel, awfully important

1001
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 4: against the backdrop of this campaign. The idea of striking

1002
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 4: a ceasefire, arriving at a ceasefire before the election might

1003
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 4: seem far fetched for some, and you wonder if that

1004
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:21,359
Speaker 4: loosens up a little bit following November. And it's something

1005
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 4: that we're going to be talking about a lot here

1006
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:24,319
Speaker 4: over the course of this program, and of course the

1007
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:26,280
Speaker 4: days ahead, we'll let you know when there's breaking news

1008
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:30,360
Speaker 4: from Israel on a campaign that moves into the final sprint.

1009
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 4: Have you heard that enough lately? Kamala Harris and Donald

1010
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 4: Trump have sixty three days to make the case. In

1011
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 4: one of those days a week from tonight could go

1012
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 4: a long way to helping decide who is going to

1013
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 4: win this election.

1014
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:41,360
Speaker 9: That's the debate.

1015
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 4: Of course, we're going to have special coverage here on

1016
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 4: Bloomberg as you would expect, but we have new polling

1017
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:51,319
Speaker 4: data and we have a new baseline here in this

1018
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:54,880
Speaker 4: campaign that we want to talk about on our first

1019
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:57,360
Speaker 4: day here on ninety two nine a FM in Boston

1020
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:02,600
Speaker 4: with the Dean of Boston Politics, my former colleague John Keller,

1021
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 4: of course, from WBZTV in Boston, the CBS affiliate. He

1022
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 4: is the host of Keller at Large, and he's the

1023
00:52:08,520 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 4: first man to moderate every debate that counts in the

1024
00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 4: Boston media market, and to have him on primary day

1025
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 4: on top of it, John, it's great to see you, welcome.

1026
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:24,359
Speaker 16: You know, the prospect of Joe Matthew back on the

1027
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:29,760
Speaker 16: Boston airwaves has touched off a wave of excitement matched

1028
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 16: only by the Celtics victory parade last June. As I

1029
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:36,399
Speaker 16: look out the window of my office, the streets are

1030
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 16: a sea of people shouting.

1031
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 9: Jubilently, Joe, Joe, Joe.

1032
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:46,239
Speaker 16: It's not clear if they're calling for Joe Matthew or

1033
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:50,319
Speaker 16: just demanding more rice coffee for DD, but we'll take

1034
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 16: it as.

1035
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:56,399
Speaker 4: The former Q the duck boats. We're back, Baby and John.

1036
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 4: It's primary day in Massachusetts. I understand we're going to

1037
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 4: learn who gets to run against Elizabeth Warren, but I

1038
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 4: have to ask you, does anyone in Massachusetts know its

1039
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 4: primary day?

1040
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 16: Not too many people and just a small correction there.

1041
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:14,320
Speaker 16: It's about who's going to lose to Elizabeth Warren in November.

1042
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 16: And let's be honest about it. There are three Republicans running,

1043
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 16: and to the extent that it's of any interest, it's.

1044
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 9: Because two of them.

1045
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 16: Well, one candidate in particular, John Deeton, a political neophyte,

1046
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 16: former marine and an attorney who kind of made his

1047
00:53:35,160 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 16: bones handling and winning a couple of high profile bitcoin cases.

1048
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 16: And there's a second candidate, Ian Kin, president of the

1049
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:54,280
Speaker 16: Quincy City Council, who also is an advocate of bitcoin deregulation.

1050
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 9: So that's kind of an interesting sidelight to this. It

1051
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 9: hasn't really.

1052
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:03,720
Speaker 16: Emerged as an issue in the primary, which has mostly

1053
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 16: been the third candidate and also Ran, who wears a

1054
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 16: Trump maga hat during debates, scalding the other two for repudiating.

1055
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 9: Trump as they have.

1056
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:19,839
Speaker 16: That's the price of admission if you want to win

1057
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 16: an election in Massachusetts.

1058
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:26,040
Speaker 9: But it's likely to be an issue in the final

1059
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 9: with Warren.

1060
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:30,320
Speaker 4: No question, Wow, we're a maga hat on the debate

1061
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 4: stage who said there were no props? John the crypto

1062
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:38,880
Speaker 4: part of this whole story. Yeah, No.

1063
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 16: I moderated a debate with the three and I asked

1064
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 16: the guy if you wanted to just lift it up

1065
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 16: a little so the camera could get a shot of

1066
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 16: his face and he agreed.

1067
00:54:47,800 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 8: Okay.

1068
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 4: Fascinating no badges were presented, I suspect. But the crypto

1069
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 4: line is important here on Bloomberg we talk about it

1070
00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 4: a lot because Elizabeth Warren has been so skeptical of

1071
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 4: crypto is asking for more regulation. But you're telling me

1072
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:05,720
Speaker 4: that that's not a factor in the campaign.

1073
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 16: Well, it hasn't been in the primary. And you know

1074
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:17,440
Speaker 16: to what extent the Republican nominee tonight can turn it

1075
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:22,280
Speaker 16: into an issue and a run against Warren. I frankly

1076
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 16: don't think it's top of mind for many Massachusetts residents.

1077
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 9: I mean, I don't mean to be flip.

1078
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:33,680
Speaker 16: About suggesting that this is no contest in the fall.

1079
00:55:33,800 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 16: But the fact is that Massachusetts is a well documented

1080
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 16: history in federal elections of voting for.

1081
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:50,319
Speaker 9: Bacon Ted Kennedy over the years.

1082
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 16: Spend it off all opposition because in large part, not

1083
00:55:56,280 --> 00:55:59,359
Speaker 16: just because he was a Kennedy, but because he delivered

1084
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 16: historic amounts of federal funding. They really created the modern

1085
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 16: day Massachusets economy. And Elizabeth Warren has well, well she's

1086
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,799
Speaker 16: no Ted Kennedy when it comes to that has had

1087
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 16: some successes lately, most recently a billion dollar grant from

1088
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:21,040
Speaker 16: the Fence to get going on the repairs of the

1089
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 16: bridges leading from the mainland to Cape cod that are

1090
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:28,719
Speaker 16: an absolutely crucial element in Massachusetts church and in the

1091
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 16: overall economy. So I bitcoin is is sure to come

1092
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:39,880
Speaker 16: up because the the Winklevoss Twins of of of what

1093
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:40,640
Speaker 16: was that movie?

1094
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 9: The Facebook movie?

1095
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 8: Uh Twins?

1096
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:47,360
Speaker 6: Who were ye?

1097
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 9: Who were? Could win by Mark Zuckerberg.

1098
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 4: The social network, Thank you, Matt.

1099
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 16: They're big donors to the John Deaton campaign. He's the

1100
00:56:57,280 --> 00:57:01,239
Speaker 16: likely winner tonight. He has the most money, been the

1101
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:04,239
Speaker 16: most visible on the air. So we'll see if it

1102
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 16: gets any traction. But I don't hold that much hope

1103
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:07,880
Speaker 16: for it.

1104
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 4: Got it all right, So in our remaining couple of

1105
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 4: minutes here, I need to get to the presidential campaign.

1106
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:15,320
Speaker 4: And I should have already wished you a happy Alston

1107
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:17,840
Speaker 4: Christmas if you don't know what that is. When the

1108
00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 4: college kids roll into Alston, mass and they get into

1109
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 4: their new apartment, they find a bunch of stuff on

1110
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:26,640
Speaker 4: the street, big old dirty couches, maybe a busted lamp.

1111
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 4: And this is like Christmas morning when you're a college

1112
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 4: kid moving into an apartment, you'd take that couch with

1113
00:57:31,640 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 4: the bed bugs, you take the lamp, you put it

1114
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 4: all back in that you make your own little special apartment.

1115
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:38,240
Speaker 4: You might even drive around pick up some stuff off

1116
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 4: the street. John is the Kamala Harris campaign, the Alston

1117
00:57:43,240 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 4: Christmas of presidential politics. She's picking up the pieces of

1118
00:57:47,720 --> 00:57:50,000
Speaker 4: what Joe Biden put together here and is trying to

1119
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 4: turn this into something new. Could she make this a

1120
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 4: living room you want to live in?

1121
00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:57,400
Speaker 9: Well, that's a.

1122
00:57:57,400 --> 00:58:01,920
Speaker 16: Very interesting analogy, Joe. I don't know that it's fair

1123
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 16: to compare the broken pieces of the Biden campaign to

1124
00:58:06,080 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 16: the completely disgusting stuff that the kids put out on

1125
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 16: the curb up here.

1126
00:58:10,800 --> 00:58:12,960
Speaker 9: I mean, that's it's pretty a little harsh.

1127
00:58:13,320 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 16: But look, you may have seen the story that there

1128
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 16: are indications that the Trump campaign has given up on

1129
00:58:19,720 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 16: New Hampshire. There's an email going out to supporters urging them,

1130
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:30,560
Speaker 16: if they want to try to help forget about New Hampshire,

1131
00:58:30,600 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 16: head to Pennsylvania.

1132
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 9: But look, I think this debate is absolutely.

1133
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:41,920
Speaker 16: Crucial in determining whether this momentum House clearly has continues.

1134
00:58:42,880 --> 00:58:45,880
Speaker 9: And I'll tell you one thing, a week from tonight.

1135
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 9: You are not going to see a.

1136
00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:52,640
Speaker 16: Lot of Kamala Hars trying to dive into policy details.

1137
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 9: Not like.

1138
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:58,480
Speaker 4: So it's still the personality contest. John, come back and

1139
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:01,360
Speaker 4: talk to us after the debate that of Boston politics.

1140
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 4: John Keller at Large on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to

1141
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 4: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if

1142
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 4: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get

1143
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:16,000
Speaker 4: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday

1144
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 4: from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.