WEBVTT - Wind Power Boom of Today Is Just the Start 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.079 Hi everyone. Today we're going to talk about wind. Twenty 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:05.000 twenty was a record year in this sector, with nearly 0:00:05.000 --> 0:00:07.920 one hundred gigawatts of new capacity coming online globally. But 0:00:07.960 --> 0:00:09.760 from the looks of it, this record year appears to 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:12.560 be only the start. In our twenty twenty new Energy outlook, 0:00:12.600 --> 0:00:14.800 which we discussed in our January twenty ninth show titled 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:18.000 Modeling the Energy Future, Ants Birds and Doctor Strange, being 0:00:18.040 --> 0:00:20.360 if projects wind to grow on average five point seven 0:00:20.360 --> 0:00:23.040 percent per year to twenty fifty, this means about hundred 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.600 and forty seven gigawats per year, beating last year's record 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:27.960 every year and growing from six percent to power supply 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:30.479 today to thirty three percent to twenty fifty. And to 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:32.240 put a bit of a point on it, on March 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:35.320 twenty ninth, the Biden administration announced a target to install 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:37.920 thirty gigawatts offshore wind in the US by twenty thirty, 0:00:38.120 --> 0:00:41.400 up from about zero today. In short, wind is growing. 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:44.320 This weekend the show, we've got two bloom Bergunna f 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:47.640 wind analysts, Isabel Edwards and Leo Wong. They're here to 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:49.640 tell us about what happened in twenty twenty to achieve 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:52.320 record installations where the growth of the sector is happening 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:54.640 and who is winning is supplying all those turbines. Our 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:57.200 discussion is based on our report titled twenty twenty Global 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:59.520 Turbine Market Shares being i fusers can get this report 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.160 on benef go in the Bloomberg terminal, BNF dot com 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:04.120 in the BNF mobile app. As a reminder, BENIF does 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:06.000 not provide investment or strategy advice, and you can hear 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:07.840 the full disclaimer at the end of the show. I'm 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:10.480 Mark Taylor and you're listening to switch down the BENF podcast. 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:22.480 He is he Mark hay Leo, Hi, Mark, thanks for joining. 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:24.880 Today is a year in London. Leo, you're in Beijing. 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:27.400 I'm in London and today we're going to talk about 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:31.520 global wind. So can you start us off by telling 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:33.720 us what's happening in wind? So there was a huge 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:37.880 growth last year in year on year and almost a 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:41.319 hundred gigawatts of new capacity was put online. Can you 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:44.280 tell us how that happened? Yep, So was a bit 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:47.360 of a crazy year for the wind industry. We saw 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:51.440 two giga watts added in the onshore wind market, which 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:55.360 is increase on last year, and then six point five 0:01:55.360 --> 0:01:59.440 gigawatts added in the offshore wind industry. But really, when 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:02.480 we look at where that growth happened, it's down to 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:05.480 two markets, which are the U S and China, and 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.679 both had subsidy schemes that were due to change at 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:12.639 the end of So in the US, developers at the 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:15.280 beginning of the year thought that production tax credit would 0:02:15.320 --> 0:02:17.799 begin to be phased out at the end of twenties, 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:19.720 so they were rushing to get their projects online by 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:22.639 the end of the year. And then in China was 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:26.160 the last year we're going to see significant built for 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:29.320 projects that qualify for the onshore wind feed in tariff Leo. 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:31.079 Do you do you want to say anything more about that? Yeah, sure, 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:34.800 absolutely so looking back in the past ten years, actually 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.760 China's tremendous growth has largely been filled by the supporter 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:43.000 of government subsidies andies really the last year for the 0:02:43.000 --> 0:02:47.359 onshore wind projects to qualify for the fair in Paris 0:02:47.400 --> 0:02:50.640 so on that regard, since everyone needs to capture the 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:55.200 lucrative subsidies, they essentially just rushed everything and that's how 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:58.639 we get to this tremendous amount of capacities built in 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:01.760 twenty just really quick, can we do a quick parenthetical? 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:04.400 Can you explain what the production tax credit is and 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:06.959 what a feed in tariff is for the uninitiated. The 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:10.080 production tax credit is a federal income tax credit that's 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:15.839 awarded to project owners based on electricity sales. And so 0:03:16.280 --> 0:03:20.680 this year ends last year projects can qualify for of 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:22.760 the production tax credit, but it is going to be 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:26.560 phased out every year until leo, do you want to 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:28.720 explain how does the feed in tarifforic in China? So 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:33.079 the fit entire scheme in China allows the developers as 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:36.320 owners to sell their power at the fixed rate. And 0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:40.200 essentially the income comes with two parts. So the first 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:43.920 part is essentially paid by the local credy companies, which 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:47.880 is usually equal to the local coal power prices, right. 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:51.200 And then then the second part, which is intially the gap, 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:54.880 is paid by the central government's budget. So when you 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:59.200 add those two components together, that will be the total 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.600 volume for for the in tires. Okay, So they're racing 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:06.160 to get guaranteed income or a tax credit or a 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.960 tax break on the production electricity exactly. These are just 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:14.480 some of the different ways that projects owners can guarantee 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:17.440 revenue from electricity sales on their projects, and in many 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:21.200 markets they're getting fased out or the governments are changing 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.920 the level of seity that they're awarding to projects, and 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:26.880 so there is a push among developers worldwide to qualify 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:29.800 for the kind of highest level of government support before 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:33.640 that is phased out. Cool okay and Leo, you mentioned 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:36.919 that there's like some crazy activity going on in China 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:38.919 to try to meet that deadline. Can you describe some 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:43.600 of that essentially in China? Added fifty seven point eight 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:46.480 was of new win forms, And to just put that 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:50.960 into context, that's the number doubling from the twenty nineteen level, 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:54.080 which is another big year for China. And if you're 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:57.120 actually comparing that number fifteen seven point eight to the 0:04:57.160 --> 0:05:01.080 global win installations, that's only two gigglewards the shine off 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:04.800 the total wind capacity at it in twent nineteen globally, right, 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:08.919 So that just put everything into the perspective. And what 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:14.480 happened in is UH joint efforts from the supply side 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:18.320 as well as the demand side. So on the supply side, 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:21.440 we're seeing manufacturers working there in the night, and then 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:25.119 they were even able to reduce the amount of time 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:28.800 to produce a single blade from seventy two hours all 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:31.640 the way down to twenty four hours. And then you're 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:36.520 seeing the developers sending their employees to stay in the 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:40.000 wind turbine makers factories so that they were making sure 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:42.680 their towbins get to be first. On the demand side, 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:45.960 what we're saying that those developers were also building like 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:50.560 crazy in the central part of China. Some teams were 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:54.520 trying to transport the wind installation cranes to a wind 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.000 farm and it breaks down in the middle of the night, 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:01.679 So these construction crews were driving five hundred kilometers away 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:04.080 to a service center to get the spare parts and 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:07.520 then then get back to the construction site the second day. 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:11.480 So that just tells us like whole heart those folks 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:13.440 on the grill on a twin to get those winter 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:16.240 been spilt. That's amazing. We'll get into this, but like 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:19.520 the supply side alone is just really incredible. To build 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:22.240 double the capacity that you put in the ground last year, 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:24.760 that's quite a jolt to the supply chain, right, Yeah, 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:28.880 that's that's something we would never imagine. Okay, so we'll 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:30.600 get into that in a second. But there's two more 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:32.359 things I want to touch on on the context of 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:36.200 global wind. So one is that it seems really undeterred 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:39.559 by COVID nineteen, right, so the world kind of shut down, 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.159 but it seems not to have affected wind at all. 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.359 Can you describe why it looks like it hasn't affected 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:47.760 wind at all? When you look at the year end installations, 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:51.760 there isn't a single region worldwide where installations didn't grow 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:56.240 compared to But when we look earlier in the year, 0:06:56.600 --> 0:07:00.480 there are a number of national lockdowns that delayed farms 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:04.159 from being built. So there were restrictions on the movement 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:06.640 of goods so the turbines to actually get to the sites, 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:09.760 and then on the movement of people so like workers 0:07:09.800 --> 0:07:12.080 to go and build the wind farms. But that was 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:15.720 relatively short lived because construction projects were some of the 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:18.640 first to be prioritized in terms of the people that 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:21.640 could go back to work throughout the pandemic. So now 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:24.480 we we really don't see that much of an impact 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:27.480 when we look at global installations. So the projects that 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:30.560 were in the pipeline got built, but did the pipeline 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:33.720 keep growing? You know, our more projects being financed as 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.320 well through the pandemic, So that's where we start to 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:39.360 see the impact of COVID nineteen on the wind sector. 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:42.280 We recorded a record here for offshore wind investments with 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:46.920 fifty billion invested worldwide and new projects and actually mean MIA. 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:49.760 We saw about about half of that was in EMA, 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:52.280 which is actually equal to the same amount that we 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:55.320 saw invested in the onshore wind sector and AMIA. But 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:59.520 when we look at global offshore wind financing, it was 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:03.480 down to you about ninety billion last year, down from 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:06.280 about a hundred and twenty billion in twenty nineteen. And 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:09.160 we think that's both just because it was maybe more 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:12.280 challenging to get parties together in order to agree on 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:16.600 a financing agreement for a project, but also some parties 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:18.760 that might have been willing to finance a win farm 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:20.680 at the start of the pandemic might have had a 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:23.600 lower appetite for the risks posed by some of these 0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:25.680 projects by the end of the year. How is that 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:29.840 looking for one and beyond, so we expect one to 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:35.840 be another large year for for wind. We currently are 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:39.040 forecasting about eighty four giga watts of new wind capacity 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:41.120 to come online, so not as much as last year, 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:42.520 though not as much as last year. It's gonna be 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:45.360 difficult to top twenty, but still a big year. So 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:47.520 about seventy had gig watson the onshore wind industry and 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:49.480 nine gigg wats in the afshowin industry, which is a 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:52.960 bit of an increase an offshore based on twenty twenty. 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:55.080 There's one more thing I want to touch on context 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:57.599 before we get into the supply chain. President Biden in 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.680 the US announced, you know, on what tenty ninth of March. 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:04.040 I believe that they want to build out thirty gigawatts 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:07.200 of offshore wind by in the US, up from I 0:09:07.200 --> 0:09:10.079 think forty two now in the area between New Jersey 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:13.280 and Long Island. That seems huge, is it, or is 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:16.000 that you know, just a few wind farms. It's pretty big. 0:09:16.280 --> 0:09:20.640 So we currently estimate that about twenty three gigawatts of 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:24.040 offshore wind capacity will be added in the US by 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:28.080 So that's a further seven giga watts. And right now 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:32.600 there is no large scale offshore wind installation in the US. 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:34.319 The first one to come online, we think is only 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:37.920 going to come online. So all of that thirty gigga 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:41.440 watts would have to be built within a six year period, 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:44.959 so about four point nine giga watts added each year 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:49.760 over six years, which is really kind of logistically challenging. 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:53.720 UM some of those new projects will need to secure permits, 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:56.440 which in the US has been challenging to date. And 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:58.160 really all of that off shore capacity has to be 0:09:58.200 --> 0:10:02.880 built in the northeast UM where the waters are shallow 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:07.520 enough to accommodate bottom fixed offshore wind turbines. If we 0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:09.880 look to the other markets in the US that have 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:13.079 set offshore wind targets, they're on the west coasts and 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:16.959 have deeper waters, so those installations are more reliant on 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:20.360 floating wind technology, which hasn't benefited from the same cost 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:25.880 reductions due to large deployment of commercial offshore wind installations 0:10:26.000 --> 0:10:28.840 in Europe. And if I'm remembering correctly from your report, 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:33.800 there currently is not a US based offshore wind equipment supplier. 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.920 Is that right, Yes, that's quite right. So we're looking 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:40.040 at the global off your wind supply chains, so instantially 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:44.720 today Europe and the China and other actually two major 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.440 regions where actually they're able to produce the off your 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:50.679 wind turbines as well as the the other equipmenting need 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:53.360 to build a wind farm. And for you, as yes, 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:57.199 we don't have a ready to go wind turbine manufacturing 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:01.080 facility yet, But that doesn't necessarily mean that the existing 0:11:01.160 --> 0:11:06.280 facilities might not have a second chance to expand their facilities, 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.959 upgrade the producing increments and they get ready for the 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:13.240 for the future production. So we think right now the 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:17.760 industry have the confidence that the marketing will boom very soon. 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:22.840 And besides, the local content rules just but just to 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:25.640 be able to sift the transportation costs will be another 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:27.960 strong driver for them to think about sitting up the 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:32.200 local facilities. When we look at who has secured orders 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:34.720 so far in the US, only about six gigawats of 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:37.680 the thirty gig a wats that these government is targeting 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:42.600 has signed preferential supplier agreements, So there is a lot 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:46.600 of potential for new sales um for offshore wind turbans 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.560 among all of the determined players. Most of the orders 0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:51.960 to date have gone to Semens, Comma and Geo Security 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.600 in order as well Investors right now is the only 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:59.360 company that doesn't have a US preferential supplier agreement for 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:03.520 a project the US. Okay, wow, So there's gonna be 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:05.760 a lot to do there. So thirty giga watts in 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:11.439 the US of offshore by six globally predicted or projected 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:15.920 by bloomguin e F and then our new Energy outlook, 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:19.040 our outlooked to predicts somewhere on the order of a 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:22.600 hundred giga watts per year, so matching the number roughly 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:26.600 every year out a call from the report. Let's leave 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:30.040 that there. The point is that wind is growing. We're 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:31.720 going to take a short break and when we come back, 0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:35.040 we're going to talk about who is supplying the wind sector, 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.880 who's building the turbines, who's winning, who's losing. So stay 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:43.600 with us. So this report we're talking about today is 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.400 the global wind turbine market shares you know, who is 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.400 supplying the wind sector with well turbines? Can you tell 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:51.360 us a bit more just about who's playing and who 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:54.880 is winning in global wind? So it depends on where 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:57.439 you look in the world. So outside of China, we're 0:12:57.520 --> 0:13:01.840 we're currently looking at about five have major companies. Some 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:04.640 of those are best to us, the Danish turbine maker 0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:09.720 General Electric, which is an American conglomerate, and then seems Lasso, 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:13.400 which is the leader in offshore wind. But about five 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:15.679 to ten years ago there were many more players in 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:19.600 the kind of ex China market. But so we're really 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:22.839 seeing strong market consolidation outside of China, and right now 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:26.280 the top five companies account for about ninety four percent 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:30.920 of all onshore wind installations outside of China. That's huge, right, 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.400 That's not a lot of room for others. And if 0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:36.880 you're looking China, then the story is totally different. Right. 0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:39.920 So in China is actually today one of the most 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:44.040 fragmented wind marketing in the world despite the huge volume. 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.480 So looking back in the past, when we are looking 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.280 at the top three companies, their market shares pually around 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:54.600 and the living tremendous space for the other players. And 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:57.360 in just in last year, we have more than twenty 0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:01.800 companies supplying win turbines in China. So that's a huge market. 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:05.439 Who is so many players active in it? So today 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:09.360 go to wind Envision and the Mania are the three 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:12.640 top players in the market, whereas a few others that 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.320 belonged to a larger state owned enterprises. So I note 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:20.240 the global wind turbine supply market has been relatively hard 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:22.600 to track over the years. Player, remember that correctly, how 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:24.720 did you actually go about doing this? Can you tell 0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:27.240 us a bit about your process or methodology for determining 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:29.400 the market shares of these players. Bloomber Getting have win 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:32.800 teams strives to track every wind farm that was brought 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.240 online in a given year and a database of projects 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:39.760 that currently accounts about forty wind farms and who supplied 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:43.240 the turbines to those projects. So what we look for 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.680 is in this exercises projects that are in the construction phase, 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:51.560 that are entering the commercial operation phase within and we 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:55.000 work in collaboration with the wind turbine manufacturers to come 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.600 up with the final numbers for the report. So doing 0:14:57.600 --> 0:14:59.920 this work, you know, this is the laborious process. We've 0:14:59.920 --> 0:15:02.880 been doing this since we've been at We've been tracking 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:06.840 renewable energy projects in two four. It's a it's a 0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:08.760 labor of love. I guess you could say. The results 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.960 are really interesting and they allow us to draw insights 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:14.360 or conclusions about the market. LEO, as you were doing 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.440 this last year, what did you find most surprising as 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:19.520 you look through the data. What we're looking back for, 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:23.360 you know, for the numbers, obviously we're all stunded by 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:27.360 the total amount of capacity at twenty but one more 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:30.560 fine interesting detail that already surprised all of us. It's 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.840 really how the market share of the top three players 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:37.400 has come down a bit so asas they pointed out, globally, 0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:41.160 the wind marketing has been going through some marketing consolidation 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:44.760 process and it's cause a true for China as well. 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.240 And for the past few years the market share of 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:50.320 the three leaders have been growing all the way, but 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:53.320 this year their market shing has come down by thirteen 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:57.920 percentage points. And what happened behind the curtains really a 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:00.800 boom of performance from the small that will ended about 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:06.000 makers who are able to double or even triple their installations, 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:08.800 you know a year because the smaller players who are 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:12.480 able to utilize their id only manufacturing capacity when the 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.560 other books of the leading players will full, so in 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:19.680 this way the capacity will doubling or even tripling. So 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:22.680 really it's just a rising tide raises all boats in 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:26.120 this case, right that there's more demand for projects and 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:28.520 then the orders get filled up for the big ones 0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:31.600 and then there's room for the small players. That's really cool. 0:16:31.800 --> 0:16:35.200 Is that the same outside of China as well? Or 0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:39.840 do you see you know that top ownership amongst five players? 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:41.840 I think you said, is there room for smaller players 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:44.800 outside China? Less and less So when we look at 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:48.000 the global picture, G E. Goldwyn and best Us are 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:50.440 in the lead with over twelve gig awats at it 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:54.240 last year, and then Envision at it over ten gig awats, 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:56.800 and then we see all the smaller players to ring 0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:58.800 behind those top four. So we're really starting to see 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.880 the gap widen between the the top few players and 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:06.080 then the smaller players. And there's the instance of send Beyond, 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:11.240 which filed for insolvency in because it was not able 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:13.840 to kind of compete on a turbine crising basis with 0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:16.160 the larger players and had a high degree of market 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:20.919 concentration risk um. And so the larger players, particularly Siemens Comessa, 0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:25.360 were able to absorb sem Beyond business units. So Siemens 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:29.320 Comessa acquired Semyon's i P and its service portfolio which 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:33.919 is the high margin business, and its manufacturing facilities. So 0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:36.000 now it seems we're getting into a very different type 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.800 of consolidation, right, players that can't keep up, they get 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:42.960 you know, solver parts on the cheap, I guess right, exactly, 0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:45.600 they get priced out, and then the larger players are 0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:49.160 able to absorb their their businesses. Fascinating, So we've touched 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:50.879 on this a bit, you know, when we talked about 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:55.760 supplying the US offshore market, But can you tell us 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:59.639 a bit about the regional aspect of supply, so you know, 0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:02.000 we know the Goldwin supplies in China, g E in 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:04.959 the US. Is the market mostly or entirely regional or 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:09.600 is there any cross pollination or cross geography supply going on? 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:15.800 It is mostly regional. So about East twenty installations came 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:19.480 from the US, and for Goldwin, more than of them 0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:22.879 came from China, and those two companies placed first and 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.600 second this year really by relying on growing demand in 0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:28.520 their home markets. Best LS, which placed third, takes a 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:31.320 very different approach. So the U s it's largest market, 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:36.480 only accounts of its twin twenty installations, and instead Best 0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:41.159 US supplied wind turbines to over thirty markets worldwide, just 0:18:41.200 --> 0:18:43.160 more than double the number of countries that g East 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:46.359 By turbines too, and we are starting to see some 0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:49.800 of the Chinese players grow their business outside of China, 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:53.000 and in turn the Western turbine makers for their business 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:56.480 within China. So vest for just Invest US and gi Eat, 0:18:56.560 --> 0:19:01.199 China was the second largest market after the US for 0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:04.840 last year's Win installations. So Leo to your point earlier 0:19:04.840 --> 0:19:07.360 about you know, the smaller players in China being able 0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:10.440 to gain a foothold, it's sounding like it's true. Also 0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:13.280 for players outside of China, there's room for them too, 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.320 Is that right, Yeah, exactly. So we are looking at 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:20.560 the numbers in tween twenties. So gvestwesoms Commiss, those three 0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:24.760 companies combined they added around to point full kick awards. 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:26.720 It might know it sounds like a lot compared to 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:29.760 the total number in China, but still that's doubling from 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:33.680 the level in twenty ten. Again, so looking into the future, 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:39.000 which the presidentsen Pain's announcements on combinationality, the Chinese, the 0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:42.200 most of players, developers, and the government agencies were also 0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:45.840 looking at additional growth in the next five years. So 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:49.119 obviously there's still a bounding room for actual turbans to 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:51.680 be built. Let's continue to look to the future. There's 0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:55.040 a tool on BNF dot com that you guys built 0:19:55.200 --> 0:19:58.119 that looks at future market shares, which to me, honestly, 0:19:58.119 --> 0:19:59.520 I think is one of the coolest tools we have 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:02.359 that I love that it's not just backward looking, but 0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:04.520 it's forward looking at who is going to own the 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:08.720 future of the market? Chairs can you tell us based 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:10.800 on that? You know, who has the strongest pipeline and 0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:13.119 what do you see one? You know, I think you've 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:15.520 said another eighties six gig watts for this year, but 0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:18.200 who's looking to own that? So it's looking like it 0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:20.560 will be a similar story to this year, and that's 0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:27.280 not very surprising. So among the top five will be 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:31.080 best s Ge, Goldwyn, Envision and Semens Comessa. And right 0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:36.000 now we have a project level data for about seventy 0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:39.000 percent of all of the capacity that we expect will 0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:42.520 come online, so there is some room for the kind 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:46.120 of top players to shuffle around. We don't expect too 0:20:46.119 --> 0:20:49.600 many surprises from so in China this year actually something 0:20:49.640 --> 0:20:51.720 new will happen. So that's the first year for the 0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:55.000 unshaw win to go completely substidi free. And right now 0:20:55.000 --> 0:20:57.720 we're seeing a price wall going on with so many 0:20:57.720 --> 0:21:01.159 tebet makers testing again and again the bottom of the 0:21:01.280 --> 0:21:04.639 topam prices. So right now more and more companies are 0:21:04.680 --> 0:21:07.880 looking for potentially going to the public, meaning that they 0:21:07.920 --> 0:21:10.280 need the market to share to tell a good story 0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:13.320 to their investors. So now the war's still going on 0:21:13.640 --> 0:21:16.720 and with think as possible that the ranking will still 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:21.160 reshuffle little bates at the end of one Okay, cool, 0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:23.320 So I guess one final question. We've talked a lot 0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:26.760 about China, the US, Europe today, but we haven't talked about, 0:21:26.760 --> 0:21:30.040 you know where else growth might occur, Latin America, Africa. 0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:31.639 Can you tell us a bit more about what the 0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:35.520 prospects are in in those markets. Sure, Africa has actually 0:21:35.560 --> 0:21:39.000 a reagioned that I'm watching pretty closely. So last year 0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:42.600 we saw that giga wat added across the Middle East 0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:46.440 and Africa region, most of that being in North Africa 0:21:46.600 --> 0:21:49.000 and South Africa, but there were a number of countries 0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:53.119 that financed some of their first wind farms. So Sambique 0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:55.560 is one, and there's a wind from being built in 0:21:55.560 --> 0:22:00.480 Ethiopia and Jibouti. So there is growing interest in and 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:04.760 wind across the continents. And South Africa is now planning 0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:09.200 its next renewable energy auctions, so the government will auction 0:22:09.240 --> 0:22:12.480 about four point eight gig watts of entra wind capacity 0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:16.000