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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome into Betting pros is newest show,

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Speaker 1: the College Football Early Line look Ahead. I am your host,

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Speaker 1: Thorne Eistrom, joined by my former colleague and good friend

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Speaker 1: Eric Froton of NBC Sports. Froton, how you doing today.

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Speaker 2: Thor, I'm doing great. You know, the fans have been

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Speaker 2: asking for the show for a time, I memorial going

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Speaker 2: back to two twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 3: I'm just happy that we can finally give the.

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Speaker 2: Fans what they've been asking for for all this time

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Speaker 2: and be able to go and pod and give them

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Speaker 2: the early line info they so ritually need.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know this is a show. Yeah. Froton and

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Speaker 1: I have wanted to do this show for a long time.

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Speaker 1: We did a variation of it last year, but this

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Speaker 1: year we're diving even deeper into the lines as they

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Speaker 1: come out to give you guys an intel report the

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Speaker 1: stuff that you need to bet on these games early

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Speaker 1: in the week. You can bet on the games on

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Speaker 1: Friday Saturday, certainly, but if you want to get more

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Speaker 1: line value, you have to bet it early in the week.

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Speaker 1: That's what this show is all about. So we'll be

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Speaker 1: joining you every Monday for the rest of the season.

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Speaker 1: And going through those lines. So let's get it started

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Speaker 1: with week one. We actually have a full slate of

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Speaker 1: games this time, unlike on this past Saturday with the

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Speaker 1: week zero, and let's start out with one of the

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Speaker 1: funnest matchups this weekend. I hope we'll see about the

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Speaker 1: player availability Utah against Florida. Utah the home team. Right now,

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Speaker 1: this line Froton has been moving back and forth. Right

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Speaker 1: now across the marketplace, Utah is minus seven. But we've

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Speaker 1: had all kinds of crazy things going on with this

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Speaker 1: line over the past week, two weeks, past month as

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Speaker 1: we wait for the availability on camerasing the starting quarterback

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Speaker 1: of Utah and Bran.

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Speaker 2: Keithy absolutely and Utah has had this game circled since

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Speaker 2: last year when they opened up against Florida this is

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Speaker 2: a home and home series and actually dropped that game

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Speaker 2: twenty nine to twenty six to the Gators.

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Speaker 1: And no, they do it.

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Speaker 2: They did it in spectacular fashion, shall we say, allowing

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Speaker 2: two hundred and eighty three yards per game last year

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Speaker 2: on seven point two yards per Carrie. I don't think

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Speaker 2: that they're going to be allowing another two hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighty three yards. They have seven to their eight top

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Speaker 2: defensive lineing back from last year, as well as Florida

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Speaker 2: oh Cyrus Torrent's first round selection only one offensive lineback

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Speaker 2: for the Gators. I think you're asking a pretty tall

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Speaker 2: ask to have Florida come in and beat Utah. But

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Speaker 2: that really does rest on the leg of Cam Rising.

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Speaker 3: I think that's pretty safe to.

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Speaker 1: Say, yeah, sure does. Obviously he's the big one. Utah

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Speaker 1: also has an injury to their backup quarterback, so they're

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Speaker 1: really hoping that their Rising, obviously is going to play here.

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Speaker 1: The crazy thing about this this line opened at nine

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Speaker 1: and a half when it came out like in May.

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Speaker 1: That's what my systems line is on it. But that's

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Speaker 1: under the assumption that Utah is going to be false strength,

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Speaker 1: that Rising will play, that Keithie will play. The market, though,

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Speaker 1: was more pessimistic on that matter as of even late

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Speaker 1: last week when this line dropped all the way to

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Speaker 1: Utah minus four and a half. But then over the

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Speaker 1: weekend it goes back up now to where we're at

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Speaker 1: now with Utah minus seven. The reason for that was

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Speaker 1: Utah dropped their first official depth chart first team quarterback

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Speaker 1: on that was came Rising and the first team tight

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Speaker 1: end was Brian Keithy now you know, as Utah's staff

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Speaker 1: trying to throw people off or what. I don't know,

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Speaker 1: but the market clearly at least was trusting of that

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Speaker 1: that depth chart that was put out as an optimistic

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Speaker 1: sign that Rising might play here. If Rising does play,

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Speaker 1: there is some value on Utah if he's close to

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent, if Keith's close to one hundred percent.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, my number on this game is nine

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Speaker 1: point five. If those guys don't play, though specifically Rising

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Speaker 1: doesn't play, then there's value on Florida, right like you go,

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Speaker 1: you go the other way with it, getting that that seven.

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Speaker 1: So that's sort of what we're trying to figure out here,

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Speaker 1: and the market they've been all over the plays on

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Speaker 1: this game for the same reason. They really can't figure

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Speaker 1: it out either. Rising was sort of slower on his

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Speaker 1: recovery timeline than for instance, for Aton, as you know

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Speaker 1: mister Rourke from Ohio. Rourke his injury happened a month

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Speaker 1: and a half before in November, but he tore multiple legaments,

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Speaker 1: he had a moniscous thing, but he was ahead of

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Speaker 1: the Rising recovery timeline coming back. But obviously in the

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Speaker 1: week zero game that Ohio had against San Diego State,

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Speaker 1: Rourke ends up getting hurt Peers it was to the

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Speaker 1: other leg. We're not going to be talking as much

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Speaker 1: about that game Ohio's next game because they're playing an

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Speaker 1: FCS opponent this weekend. But all just sort of things

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Speaker 1: to keep in mind here with regards to this game,

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Speaker 1: for Aton, is this one right now where it sits

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Speaker 1: at seven, where you would tell people go out and

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Speaker 1: bet one side or the other on this early in

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Speaker 1: the week, or is this one where it's truly a

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Speaker 1: wait and see until we know for sure what Rising

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Speaker 1: and Keithy's status is for this game.

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Speaker 2: We bring up to Curtis Rourke situation. I think it's

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Speaker 2: very relevant here because all off season in November fifteenth,

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Speaker 2: exactly when r tour his knee up. All off season,

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Speaker 2: we heard the right things about Rourke. We heard Ohio

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Speaker 2: was adamant saying he's gonna be ready, He's ahead of schedule.

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Speaker 2: You know, he's he's doing drills, he's doing everything he

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Speaker 2: needs to be.

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Speaker 3: We have gotten that out of Utah.

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Speaker 2: Now we haven't gotten that unbridled optimism when we're saying, yeah,

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Speaker 2: oh yeah, Cam's gonna be here, he's gonna play. What

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Speaker 2: he did say last week I saw her an interview,

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Speaker 2: is he hopes to play. He wants to play, you know,

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Speaker 2: he expects to play. But Dave stop short of the

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Speaker 2: full on. Yeah, Cam's ready. He's going when he's doing

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Speaker 2: this because he's been limited, you know, in camp and

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Speaker 2: as has brand Keithy. He has been very limited frankly,

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Speaker 2: and I'm very concerned about him playing. I like Thomas Yasmin,

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Speaker 2: their number two tight end, who caught six touchdowns and

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Speaker 2: like ten receptions last year. He's incredible, you know, Australian

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Speaker 2: rules football players converted and he's the standard twenty six

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Speaker 2: years old for all utah U players. But yeah, that's

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Speaker 2: that's a real concern. I don't feel comfortable until we

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Speaker 2: get a little more information on Rising. If he's not playing,

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Speaker 2: like you said, Brandon Rose got hurt, he's out. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: but you're down with third string starter against Florida SEC defense.

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Speaker 3: They want this game.

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Speaker 2: But I gotta think the Cam Rising will play. I

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Speaker 2: mean I gotta think he will, you know, give it

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Speaker 2: and it happened in January, but there's any way you

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Speaker 2: can he will, and if he does, I am back

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Speaker 2: in Utah. But I don't feel comfortable making an early,

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Speaker 2: you know, decision based on something so fleeting as you know,

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Speaker 2: injured status.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that right now, with that being

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Speaker 1: up in the air. I think the seven that's objectively

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Speaker 1: fair by the market, right, like the market clearly when

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Speaker 1: that thing got down to four and a half, that

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Speaker 1: was under sort of the expectation that Rising wouldn't play.

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Speaker 1: Then that you get more optimistic news, better optimistic news

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Speaker 1: than we'd heard on Rising for a long time, because,

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Speaker 1: like you said, the whole time, like Kyle Whittingham late July,

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Speaker 1: he told reporters, I would be very surprised if Cam

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Speaker 1: rd and plays in week one. Then all throughout August

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Speaker 1: it was reports like Cam Rising's not ready to practice yet,

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Speaker 1: he's not out there on the field, YadA, YadA. It

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Speaker 1: was only the pessimism.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: In contrast, like you said, Ohio's optimism with regards to Rorke.

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Speaker 1: But then late last week we get some optimistic news. Finally,

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Speaker 1: that's what toggles this thing to seven. I'd stay away

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Speaker 1: from this thing until we get more of an idea

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Speaker 1: if if Rising and Keithy are gonna play.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to our next one forro toon the Hawaii

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Speaker 1: Rainbow Warriors, America's team going in. We got the strong

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Speaker 1: cover against Vanderbilt. They were they were very frisky in

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Speaker 1: that game. Uh. The improvement that we saw we saw

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Speaker 1: on Hawaii at the end of last season, where they

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Speaker 1: you know, they got decked in their first two games,

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Speaker 1: one once by Vanderbilt first game of last season, first

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Speaker 1: game of the Timmy Chang Era. After that last eleven games,

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Speaker 1: Hawaii goes nine to two against the spread to close

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Speaker 1: out the season. And during that time, Brendan Schager, their quarterback,

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Speaker 1: he got better and better and better he was. It

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Speaker 1: wasn't high bar to clear because he was terrible in September,

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Speaker 1: but as he got sort of more viable, you know,

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Speaker 1: later on in October and then into November, all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, Hawaii was like, Okay, they got something here.

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Speaker 1: They got Tayland Hines, that the super interesting running the

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Speaker 1: scap back that you can also put in the slot.

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Speaker 1: They have a pretty good offensive line. We were wondering

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Speaker 1: about the defense, but they went out. They got the

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Speaker 1: Hawaii or i'm sorry, the Wyoming quarterback or cornerback Cam

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Speaker 1: Stone that came over. Who's on the preseason watch list

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Speaker 1: for the awards and everything like that. Hawaii has a

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Speaker 1: pretty good secondary and a very good showing. Like I said,

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Speaker 1: in the first game against Vanderbilt, didn't come away with

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Speaker 1: the win, but a very comfortable double digit cover, which

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Speaker 1: you know, for our purposes is topical. This one Forroton.

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Speaker 1: We got some line movement in this one based on

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Speaker 1: a week zero result. This line. Now Hawaii's game against

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Speaker 1: Stanford is down to Stanford minus four. It was a

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Speaker 1: little bit higher earlier on. Tell the people about this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, stiff. Hawaii actually opened at minus ten

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Speaker 2: and a half on May twenty first, when all these

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Speaker 2: things were were initially rolled out, and it was slowly

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Speaker 2: whittled down to the seven point touchdown mark that we

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Speaker 2: had coming into the weekend. Obviously, we know last year

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Speaker 2: Vandy just destroyed Hawaii sixty three.

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Speaker 3: To ten, annihilated them.

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Speaker 2: But as you mentioned here one of Chang, they their

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Speaker 2: offense was so inept that they switched to the run

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Speaker 2: and shoot system midway through the season.

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Speaker 3: Like I said, after they switched the run and shoot, which.

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Speaker 2: Timmy Chang is a legitimate icon in the college Jasey

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Speaker 2: circles and a Connas Store of the run. Shoot, somebody

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Speaker 2: gonna run it. I want Timmy Chang running it. Now,

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Speaker 2: you know, they go over.

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Speaker 3: They looked great.

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Speaker 2: It was a different team from the team Vandy played

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Speaker 2: last year, you know, competitive, throwing the ball, slinging it around.

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Speaker 2: I mean, jigger twenty seven of thirty five for three

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty one yards. Now, what they did not do,

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Speaker 2: which is what they were good at last year. They

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Speaker 2: were actually, you know, by the numbers metrics wise, a

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Speaker 2: good effective running team last.

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Speaker 1: Year when they chose to run, you know, surtizing seven

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Speaker 1: point six yards per carry last year for a TIMS.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they were very effective, you know, But this year,

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Speaker 2: I mean clearly that was not the case. They weren't

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Speaker 2: running against Vandy. Who in power situations, Vanderbilt was top

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Speaker 2: twenty in the nation last year. Excellent be it, you know,

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Speaker 2: power success rate, goal line success rate, stuff rate. They

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Speaker 2: were actually a pretty good, you know, defensive unit. They

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Speaker 2: weren't going to run on them, and they didn't. Twenty

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Speaker 2: five carries just forty yards for the Rainbow Warriors. Now

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Speaker 2: that was against the better front than what they're going

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Speaker 2: to be dealing with here for sure. Now, I mean

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Speaker 2: we're dealing with Stanford. Talk about a team that is

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Speaker 2: in a position that how Hawaii was last year. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: full on, David Shaw checked out before the season twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two. Everybody kind of accepts it. So you have

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Speaker 2: Troy Taylor coming in from Sacramento State, where I don't

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Speaker 2: know if you guys realized, but Sacramento State was a

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Speaker 2: damn good FCS program. Sent Marte Mapu to the Patriots,

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Speaker 2: third ground Wick my boy to the Patriots, a scot

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Speaker 2: in the nflpable. Although Cameron Scatagow, their lead running back,

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Speaker 2: is now at Arizona State, predicted to be the starter

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Speaker 2: at ASU. You know, so he did a great job

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Speaker 2: of developing talent, which you will have to do here

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Speaker 2: at Stanford. But man, look at Okay Hawaii last game.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you guys watch it, they all

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Speaker 2: gained Vanderbilt three ninety one to two ninety seven, averaged

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Speaker 2: ten yards per past. This is a This is a

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Speaker 2: potent Hawaii. I love what I saw from them out there.

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Speaker 2: You know, like the roster's completely Turndobe was clearly different,

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Speaker 2: you know, the starting lineup. I'm pretty I'm pretty bullish

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Speaker 2: on this. It has since dropped from that seven settled

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Speaker 2: line before the you know the game where even though

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Speaker 2: they lost, went down the plus four all right, it

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Speaker 2: moved in Hawaii's favor, you know, three a full field goal.

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Speaker 2: So it went from being ten and a half at

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Speaker 2: open down to four now.

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Speaker 3: And that's based on.

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Speaker 2: Hawaii year two looking really good against Sandy. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I don't feel good having not seen what we're dealing

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Speaker 2: with Stanford.

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Speaker 3: We don't even know what we're getting for a quarterback.

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Speaker 3: All the receivers went and graduated.

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Speaker 2: Who were talking guys looking Michael Wilson, you know, blowing

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Speaker 2: it up in camp for Arizona. So this is a

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Speaker 2: true year zero at Stanford and I can't feel comfortable

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Speaker 2: taking the P five teen here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah me either. Yeah. Stanford, like you said, Holladall roster

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Speaker 1: some of the least returning experience in the entire nation.

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Speaker 1: Stanford has the thing where they can lose guys to

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Speaker 1: the portal. People can leave, but it is very hard

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Speaker 1: for them to get people back in the portal. They

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Speaker 1: did raise some of the restrictions that David Shaw had,

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Speaker 1: but not nearly enough. They were able to get like

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Speaker 1: two transfers. I think that are gonna play, but they

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Speaker 1: need more. They certainly they needed more this offseason to

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Speaker 1: replenish what was going out one of the least talented,

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Speaker 1: well certainly the least talented roster in the Power five.

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Speaker 1: But I got them way way down there in the

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Speaker 1: hundreds in my overall power rankings. Forton, I'm actually, you

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Speaker 1: know the game before wait and see for me this one.

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Speaker 1: I would encourage people to go out and bet Hawaii.

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Speaker 1: Now if you like the Hawaii side. My adjusted line

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Speaker 1: on this game is actually Stanford minus two point one.

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Speaker 1: Even with this line coming down to four, I still

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Speaker 1: think that there is value on Hawaii, and I think

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Speaker 1: Hawaii's got a real good shot to go in there

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Speaker 1: and get an upset over a Power five team. They're

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Speaker 1: certainly going to be fired up. They played against, you know,

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Speaker 1: a Vanderbilt team that's better right that over the last

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Speaker 1: two years has gotten better, better, super frisky. It was

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Speaker 1: really hard for Vanderbilt to put away Hawaii. This one

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Speaker 1: totally different new coach for Stanford, a roster that doesn't

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Speaker 1: have anything coming back. Really, they have the two guys

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Speaker 1: on offense, Smith, the run back like him, like the

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Speaker 1: tight end out there.

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Speaker 2: You're a sex.

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Speaker 1: Outside of that, like, the defense returns very little. They

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Speaker 1: don't really have anything else on offense. We don't even

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Speaker 1: know is going to start on offense to your earlier point.

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Speaker 1: So again, this would be one of my early bets

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Speaker 1: if you like Kawaii to lock that one in now

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Speaker 1: for all time. Moving on to our next one. Another

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Speaker 1: coach making his debut, Ryan Walters at Purdue. They are

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Speaker 1: hosting Fresno State, a team that lost a whole bunch

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Speaker 1: as well over the offseason. He lost j Canner, he

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Speaker 1: lost all of his favorite targets, different stuff like that.

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Speaker 1: They lost a couple of key defenders. Purdue has been

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Speaker 1: in right now live it's perdue minus four and a half.

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Speaker 1: This one, though, has come down a bit. Perdue is

294
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Speaker 1: minus six and a half. You go back to May

295
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Speaker 1: for all ton, What are your thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like you said, it's down in that four and

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Speaker 2: a half point range, which they opened at six and

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Speaker 2: a half in May, which is only down two points,

299
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Speaker 2: which is a moderate. However, where the movement has been

300
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Speaker 2: on this is the over under. This opened it fifty

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Speaker 2: nine and we're now down to fifty and a half.

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Speaker 2: Get heading into the weekend, it was fifty and a half.

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Speaker 2: Now it sits at forty eight and a half. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that's that's about the figures. You're gonna five ten and

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Speaker 2: a half points from open on more. And I think

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Speaker 2: a lot of it has to do as you mentioned

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Speaker 2: Ryan Walters, who was a defensive coordinator at Illinois last year,

308
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Speaker 2: and frankly, I mean, you can't say enough about what

309
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Speaker 2: he did to turn around that ALIGNEI defense.

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Speaker 1: Is incredible, incredible, incredible, and there's no hyperbole in that

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Speaker 1: because the year before he got there, they.

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Speaker 2: Allowed thirty four and a half a table thirty four

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Speaker 2: and a half. Last year they allowed twelve and a half.

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Speaker 2: Shoved twenty two points off their averages in just two seasons.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you just don't turnarounds like that. So Walters

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Speaker 2: is pretty much unassailable. And the cool thing is, you know,

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Speaker 2: you're not a wrestling guy, but he looks like too

318
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Speaker 2: Cold Scorpio, Like that's a celebrity doppelganger. So I'm really

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Speaker 2: excited about that. He has a wrestling comp that I

320
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Speaker 2: can use for Walters. But that being said, uh yeah,

321
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Speaker 2: with Fresno State, you know what they were dealing with

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Speaker 2: last year. He had he had that senior leadership with

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Speaker 2: Jake Hayner. You know we've seen now that he's with

324
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Speaker 2: the Saints and he was a fourth round pick and

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Speaker 2: had I would say, the photo session of the offseason.

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Speaker 3: Jakes owned the coultive sessions.

327
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Speaker 2: Of the entire NFL. Just that's the intangibles that he

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Speaker 2: brought to Fresno State. Now that he's gone, Nithero Weremihio's gone,

329
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Speaker 2: Jalen Cropper's gone, you know, Mims is gone, They're they're

330
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Speaker 2: running back. I mean not just that, but some of

331
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Speaker 2: these guys. Calin de Boor who's now the head coach

332
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Speaker 2: at Washington and dropping nuclear bombs on a regular basis,

333
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Speaker 2: This is a lot of his guy and he's gone

334
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Speaker 2: now and you got Jeff Tedford you know, back. But

335
00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,480
Speaker 2: there's a lot of the structuring going on in both

336
00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,080
Speaker 2: these teams. You know, you got Hudson Ki coming in

337
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 2: for Ramiel Kunnle. There's a lot of conjecture. Clearly, the

338
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,800
Speaker 2: market is telling you that, look, this previously high flying

339
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 2: Purdue is now has a defensive minded head coach and

340
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Speaker 2: with Fresno they're graduating a lot. Clearly, that is the

341
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Speaker 2: motivation behind this. I still like at fifteen and a half,

342
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Speaker 2: I was ready to run the pay window. I get it.

343
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Speaker 2: At forty five and a half is probably still on

344
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Speaker 2: that under but you're getting into the danger zone now.

345
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it is a tough one sight unseeing with

346
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Speaker 1: these teams because they're gonna look so different than from

347
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Speaker 1: last year. You know, Fresno say it. For years now,

348
00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:49,119
Speaker 1: they had that core of guys. You know you mentioned Hayner, Viggio, Cropper, Mims, like,

349
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Speaker 1: all those guys are gone. It's a totally new thing.

350
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Speaker 1: Their quarterback now is mikey Kean. They bring over from UCF.

351
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Speaker 1: We got to see a little bit of mikey Kean

352
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Speaker 1: last year. Mike, we got some mikey Kean. You know,

353
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Speaker 1: John Rice Plumbley was was banged up as usual. So

354
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Speaker 1: mikey Kean, he got to have a couple of cameos

355
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,960
Speaker 1: here and there. He's okay. You know, he's just a

356
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 1: little tiny, uh accurate nood alarm passer guy, right like

357
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:17,639
Speaker 1: I mean the the he's not super duper mobile. You

358
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,719
Speaker 1: probably put him around Hayner in terms of that, uh,

359
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:22,720
Speaker 1: I mean that was sort of the issue with his

360
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 1: fit in the custmels On system.

361
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:24,520
Speaker 2: Is.

362
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,159
Speaker 1: He definitely is not the athlete that John Rice Plumley was,

363
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,600
Speaker 1: but you do get some accuracy. He was certainly more

364
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,640
Speaker 1: accurate than John Rice plump you know Plumley. But this game,

365
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 1: it's your first game. You're you're acclimating to all these

366
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,239
Speaker 1: the new cast of characters, the new offense, whatnot. And now,

367
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 1: like you said, you going you play this produde team

368
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 1: that has a defensive minded coach produce offense is gonna

369
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,920
Speaker 1: look different as well, right, Like they're they're going away

370
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:51,760
Speaker 1: from Broms more pro style, pass happy system to spread

371
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 1: air raid system under Graham Harrow. And you have the

372
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 1: new quarterback Hudson Card. We we've seen a little bit

373
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,720
Speaker 1: of Hudson Card in the same way, you know, coming

374
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,680
Speaker 1: in injury replace he's been and whatnot these past couple

375
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 1: of years. But yeah, you're just sort of trying to

376
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,359
Speaker 1: get a beat on where these teams are at, where

377
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:08,720
Speaker 1: that number is right now, I don't think I would

378
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,119
Speaker 1: touch that total where it's come down. You agree with

379
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 1: the movement because of these factors we're talking about about.

380
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 1: Yeah that as far as this side, I'll certainly be

381
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 1: handicapping this one more this week, right now I'm show

382
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:24,399
Speaker 1: on line value on Perdue, though my line on that

383
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 1: game is Perdue minus six point six. So with that

384
00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 1: where it is, that would be the side that I'd

385
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,120
Speaker 1: be looking at early in the week, But more investigating

386
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 1: to do on both those teams. Forton the next game,

387
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,960
Speaker 1: we got rematch from last year and actually a game

388
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,920
Speaker 1: that's sort of set TCU on their path to the

389
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 1: college football national title. Which if you told us that

390
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:47,920
Speaker 1: day that that's what was going to happen, you know,

391
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 1: when Chandler Morris comes out and is struggling at the

392
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,680
Speaker 1: outside and then they bring it Max Tow again, they're like,

393
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 1: from here on out, TCU now is going to become

394
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,000
Speaker 1: a national title contender. We would have had you locked

395
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,679
Speaker 1: in and say a asylum, but that's what ended up happening. Now.

396
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 1: TCU over the off season they lose a whole bunch.

397
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 2: Uh.

398
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 1: They had to restock through the transfer portal, which they

399
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 1: did a pretty good job up in Sunny Dikes his

400
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 1: first offseason last year, so we'll see how they do

401
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:17,640
Speaker 1: this year. And then of course Colorado unprecedented roster turnover,

402
00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 1: well that doesn't even begin to touch it. They're like

403
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:24,159
Speaker 1: double the roster turnover the next highest team. Previously the

404
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 1: whole roster was out. Dion brought in what was it

405
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 1: his Louis, He brought.

406
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 3: In his luggage, Louis, Yeah.

407
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 1: His lug. That's right that right now in the marketplace

408
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 1: for a time we got TCU minus twenty and a

409
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 1: half and a total of fifty nine and a half.

410
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: What are you see it in this one?

411
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 2: Yeah? This is opened at twenty three and a half.

412
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 2: So they were even less confidence the market in Dion

413
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,440
Speaker 2: than they are now. That dropped down to twenty a half.

414
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 2: I actually see it right around twenty one someplaces now,

415
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 2: you know. Interestingly enough as well, it started out with

416
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 2: sixty three and a half on the total and dropped

417
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 2: down to fifty nine and a half, you know, by June.

418
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 2: So these both of these lines moved down commiserately. But

419
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 2: you know, I'm looking at this and I'm cabinet for myself,

420
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 2: and I see, you know, with your line, I agree.

421
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 3: I think twenty one points.

422
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: Is just too much, too high, you know, too high,

423
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 2: because look look at last year, right is did he

424
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 2: a wholesale roster change over through the portal? Yes? He did?

425
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 2: Who did it?

426
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 3: Last year?

427
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 2: USC?

428
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 3: They did all right in the portal LSU.

429
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 2: Right, those are the two biggest portal teams in the

430
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 2: country last year, and they both were smashing successes compared

431
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 2: to where they were the year prior. So I don't

432
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 2: like I don't want to dig Colorado for bringing in

433
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 2: more talented players than what they had because they were

434
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: brutal left everybody knows. It's no secret Colorado was Neumero

435
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 2: Uno the worst team in the FBS last year. They

436
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 2: were a horror show. So why would you not want

437
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 2: to bring in more talented play they had in there.

438
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 2: I don't have a problem with that. Sure, we'll it

439
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: takes some time to gel, yes, but look, Shade or

440
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,160
Speaker 2: Sanders is throwing the ball all over the place last year,

441
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,679
Speaker 2: and he looked pretty good in the practice sessions. I mean,

442
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 2: they didn't have any problems scoring in the spring. I

443
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 2: think they can score. And with a depleted TCU that

444
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 2: didn't have a great pass rush last year. Now you

445
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 2: losing Dylan Gorton, You're losing d winners, you know, like

446
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 2: using some important guys off that front seven, Like, hey,

447
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 2: this is a change over here for TCU. I feel

448
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,400
Speaker 2: like it's a last year line, not a this year line,

449
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 2: and I think it's too many points. So I'm back

450
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 2: in to U.

451
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely agree with that. My line on that

452
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 1: one TCU minus sixteen point five, and I totally agree

453
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 1: like that. You know, the bedrocks of that TCU team

454
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 1: last year that brought him to the title, they're all gone, right.

455
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 1: QJ is gone, the other couple of starting receivers are gone.

456
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 1: The special teams are going to have to redo it

457
00:22:55,160 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 1: as well, Dugan, Gary Miller Miller, Yeah, exactly, a whole

458
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 1: bunch on on defense as well in their secondary as well,

459
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: and so they have to sort of piece it together.

460
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 1: I also think some of you know, if I may,

461
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 1: and and maybe I'll regret saying this, but I think

462
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,239
Speaker 1: some of the sharps in the market a bit too

463
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 1: low on Colorado, just under the auspices of the idea

464
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 1: of the whole wholesale roster change. It can't work the

465
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 1: next season. But like you said, for a time now,

466
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 1: we have a couple of years of data on this,

467
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: the teams that have turned it over their roster. More

468
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: as long as you're bringing in more quality than you're

469
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 1: sending out, you do okay with it. At least the

470
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: early returns on that. And also, you know, I know

471
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 1: people might be a little bit pessimistic about Dion early

472
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 1: on in the FBS. He never been an FBS head coach. Whatever.

473
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 1: Really like his coordinator Hires. I actually really likes Sean Lewis.

474
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 1: Sean Lewis runs at the fastest tempo in college football.

475
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 1: His offenses at Kent State. It's just, you know, run

476
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 1: a play, sprint up to the line, We're snapping it again.

477
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: We're going again, We're going again, We're going again. Now

478
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 1: he's you know, he's going to be bringing that up

479
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 1: against this TCU defense that has all these new guys.

480
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 1: TCU has some talent there, but there could be some

481
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 1: confusion initially with all the tempo and TCU on the

482
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 1: other side, they have a new offensive coordinator of course,

483
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 1: Kendall Briles they bring in. They lost Garrett Riley to Clemson.

484
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 1: Kendell Briles is also a guy that runs some up

485
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 1: tempo offense, So that total might be something to look at,

486
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,400
Speaker 1: maybe shade that one over. I'll be curious to see

487
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 1: what happens with that one as we go. But I would,

488
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: you know, early on this week, I would show you know,

489
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: value on Colorado. That would be the side that I'd

490
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 1: be leaning to. I think the market went too far

491
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: the other way for a time. Before we get to

492
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 1: the rest of the card, I just wanted to take

493
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 1: a second to encourage everyone to join Betting Pros as

494
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 1: college football pick contests this year. You can do that

495
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com slash college. Compete against me, Compete

496
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 1: against the other readers, compete against everybody. We got monthly

497
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: giveaways for that for the person that wins the month,

498
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 1: also have a season long prize a grand prize for

499
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 1: the overall winner. The whole standings is based on ROI,

500
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 1: so the better you're doing with your picks with your sportsbook,

501
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: the better you're gonna of doing this contest. If you're

502
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: an existing user, you just have to join the group

503
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 1: and your ce at B picks for this season will

504
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,880
Speaker 1: be counted. Take me on at Bettingpros dot com slash

505
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: college Froton. Moving to the rest of the card, Louisiana Tech,

506
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 1: who we see in Week zero a half thor was

507
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 1: not impressed with the Bulldogs in the zero the week

508
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 1: zero win over FIU, that pillow fight we had playing

509
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 1: SMU here in the opener SMU entering the Stone Age Froton.

510
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 1: As you know this line, we got SMU minus twenty

511
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 1: and a half and a total of sixty five and

512
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 1: a half. What's catching your eye about this one?

513
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 2: Yeah? With this game, I mean this opened at thirteen

514
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 2: and a half and fifty eight on May. That's a

515
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 2: big jump, big jump thirteen and a half to twenty

516
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 2: and a half obviously here, and I like SMU, so

517
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 2: I understand why. But I mean, you know that that's

518
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 2: a pretty big deal. And you know what also is

519
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 2: interesting is that when at fifty eight, it hung in

520
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 2: there for three weeks. It was at fifty eight for

521
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 2: a few weeks until it opened on across all markets

522
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,639
Speaker 2: and shut up to sixty seven and a half on

523
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 2: the twenty second of June. It's currently obviously at sixty

524
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 2: five and a half, so that's coming.

525
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 3: Down a little bit.

526
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: But hey, I mean we see which way the wind

527
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 2: is blowing there. And with Louisiana Tech, you know, finally

528
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 2: we get a little tape on these guys, and it

529
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 2: wasn't particularly pretty in the open end. I mean they

530
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 2: went down seventeen to nothing on FIU right out of

531
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 2: the gate, right out of the gate. In fact, on

532
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 2: their first four drives, Florida International accrued one hundred and

533
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 2: eighty yards. Okay, to their credit. From there, Sunny Comby

534
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: and Company made adjustments and from the second quartern it

535
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 2: was a different game. They went on in their next

536
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,719
Speaker 2: eight drives, FIU to gain a total of twelve yards.

537
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 2: All right, so that's one eight in their first four

538
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 2: in their next eight okay, Well that has to do

539
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 2: with the fact that they're passing. I mean Fyu couldn't

540
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 2: do anything against Louisiana literally good secondary, Yeah, literally literally

541
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 2: nothing right.

542
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 3: Five of fourteen passing, four drum boards.

543
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 2: Four yards, single four four nothing.

544
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: It looks like a type it was not. H Yeah,

545
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 1: Fyu is gonna have issues completing foward passes all year long.

546
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 2: That c years.

547
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: That was tough to watch. He had three less interceptions

548
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 1: than he had passing yards. And again the one pack

549
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: that he had the four passing, he had a two

550
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 1: year completion on the first year, I've greats and James

551
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: dead and after that he they got two more yards.

552
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 1: The rest of the game turns.

553
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: Out Tyree's Chambers and revolve of Fairweather mad last year

554
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 2: and they're gone now. They don't have anybody out there.

555
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 2: Bad news for FYU. But like it was literally the

556
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 2: point where they had to run the ball. But point

557
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 2: does he have a really one dimensional team like that?

558
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 3: Lt still didn't.

559
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 2: They didn't stop them two hundred and forty three yards

560
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: on the ground six two point one.

561
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, LTUS unsifense is going to be an abomination all year.

562
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 1: And I don't give them their secondary. You know, LTU,

563
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 1: their secondary was terrible last year. Pass the defense with terrible.

564
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: I don't give them any credit for holding Grayson James

565
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 1: to four passing year. That's because Grays and James can't

566
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: throw the ball. What you're wondering about is they knew

567
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,719
Speaker 1: that FIU wasn't going to be able to complete four passes.

568
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 1: And like you said, they still give up one hundred

569
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: and seventy eight rushing yards on only thirty attempts. It's like, guys,

570
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 1: just load that box, try to do something, and they

571
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 1: were still getting God. I wasn't impressed by LTU and

572
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 1: for all time. Now they have to take on this

573
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 1: SMU team. This SMU offense I think is going to

574
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 1: be tremendous. Right like they they did lose h Rashi Rice,

575
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 1: You know, lost the quarterback of course, but now Preston

576
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 1: Stone taking over the Stone Age one of the most

577
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 1: valleyhood recruits that SMU has gotten the last twenty years

578
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: or so since the Pony excess days. They still have

579
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: a ton of receiving talent. They brought in a bunch

580
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: and there is a ton of power five teams that

581
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: would tomorrow trade running back rooms with SMU. They are

582
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 1: so deep in the backfield as well. That's a pretty

583
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 1: powerful offense. And we know that LTU's defense is awful

584
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 1: early week here for a time. You know, with those

585
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: factors in mind, is there any way that you would

586
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 1: go with this one or you know, do you think

587
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: there's more value elsewhere on the board.

588
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: I do think like Louisiana attack Ken score a little bit,

589
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 2: they can score a little bit, you know.

590
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: Blagmer makes the offense interesting, doesn't he like a little bit?

591
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: At least it's not incompetent quarterback play like last year.

592
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 2: And they closed out well at least, I mean they

593
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 2: started out, oh god, it was bad, but they closed

594
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 2: out fairly well. I kind of think I'm leaning towards

595
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 2: the over here is kind of where I'm at, And

596
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 2: I mean too, you know, because I just think they

597
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 2: could score.

598
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 3: I could see them back.

599
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: Door in this. You know, the twenty one points. I

600
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 2: feel great SMU obviously, but I like the total. I

601
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 2: just think it's gonna keep going.

602
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 1: Yeah. So my system's line on this game SMU minus

603
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: nineteen point seven, pretty close to the twenty and a half.

604
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: But I am not in a hurry to support to

605
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 1: buy tickets on Luisiana Tech after what I seen last week.

606
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 2: But I agree with you.

607
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: I think the value is on that over LTU. Now

608
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: their offense is going to be able to move. We

609
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 1: saw the Bakchmeyer to Smoke Harris connection. Smoke Harris in

610
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: the first game eleven catches one hundred and fifty five yards,

611
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 1: one touchdown. FIU couldn't do anything about him. And then

612
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: the other guy, Cyrus Allen, he only had five catch

613
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: for forty eight yards. But I think he's going to

614
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 1: be super interesting this year is Bachmeyer gets a better

615
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 1: connection with him. Bachmeyert can push the ball down the field.

616
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 1: And that Cyrus Allen kid is a home run hitter.

617
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: So you get the efficiency and the volume from Smoke Harris.

618
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see more of an explosive elopment

619
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: going forward when Cyrus Allen gets more involved. Obviously Bachmeyer

620
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: has raised the ceiling of that offense, but I think

621
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 1: SMU's offense. Name the score on LTU's defense here, and

622
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: you know the side of the game is gonna come

623
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: down to just how many points Louisiana Tech can can

624
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: come back with. But either way, to me, this one

625
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 1: definitely skews over my system showing value on that over too.

626
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 1: Forroton to the next one, Ohio State and Indiana. We

627
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 1: got a big ten opener here. Indiana right now is

628
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 1: catching thirty points in this game with a total at sixty.

629
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: My line on this one is Ohio State minus thirty

630
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: two point nine. Indiana is gonna be a tough watch

631
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: this year. What are you seeing in this one?

632
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: Yeah? They are gonna be a tough watch. They always are.

633
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 3: My gosh, it's been tough since Calen.

634
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: De Bori moved on over and the magical twenty twenty

635
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 2: four to two season.

636
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 1: Tom all Is Kalin de Boris for money, don't need Froton.

637
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 2: Oh, Tom Allen, Yeah he signed notice. How we signed

638
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 2: that extension right after twenty twenty He's like, yeah, I

639
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 2: got seven years more year, no problem, so they you know,

640
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 2: pay me to go.

641
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 3: Home and hang out.

642
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 2: But yeah, this open eight and a half okay, and

643
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 2: moved to thirty over the weekend. So like this just moved,

644
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 2: you know, fairly recently. It was we were sitting point

645
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 2: and a half just over the weekend, and it was

646
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 2: also started at sixty three and a half on the

647
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 2: total is down to sixty even right now, so you

648
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 2: see which way this is going. What I like about

649
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 2: Indiana is terrible defense. Terrible defense. Love that about this

650
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: particular game. I don't think it's only three returning starters

651
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 2: from a team that allowed thirty four a game last year,

652
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 2: sixty four.

653
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,479
Speaker 1: And the promising guys are questioning for a time. They

654
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: lost mccallaugh, you know, and they obviously the other starters

655
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: as well.

656
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 3: But yeah, son, yeah they're in trouble. This is not

657
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 3: a good team.

658
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 2: And then offensively, you know, like they had to do something.

659
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 2: The bad boy Connor Beslac wasn't getting it done, so

660
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 2: they bring in They're bringing Tavian Jackson, who you know,

661
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 2: was a high touted recruit, a for star recruit at Tennessee,

662
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 2: but he has four career pass attempts that all came

663
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 2: in garbage time last year.

664
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: We don't know what we're getting out of that.

665
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 2: You know, Camper does return, which is nice because he

666
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 2: was he was the only guy that could really rely

667
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,239
Speaker 2: on in terms of throwing passes to him. He got

668
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 2: hurt halfway through the season, but he was just racking

669
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 2: up targets. So again, you know, I see this and say,

670
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 2: Indiana is known for how fast they play, Like people

671
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 2: don't realize if they were top ten in terms of

672
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 2: pace last season. Yeah, they rip off plays. They don't succeed,

673
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 2: but they rip them off fast, which I mean you

674
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 2: just get. I mean, it's just you're cranking them out.

675
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 2: He's cranking up plays on both sides because even when

676
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 2: they go three and out, it only takes thirty seconds

677
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 2: off the clock. They run once to throw two or

678
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 2: two incompletions and then here you are right back. Like

679
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 2: I lean over on this, especially a pretty reasonable sixty.

680
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely do too. I agree with with both

681
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: of them, you know, Like I said, my line Ohio

682
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 1: State minus thirty two point nine. My systems total on

683
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:14,439
Speaker 1: this one was seventy four point five. So on both

684
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,919
Speaker 1: of them where I agree with the market. It's sort

685
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 1: of funny to see that, you know, this line moves

686
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 1: up to Ohio State minus thirty, but you know then

687
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 1: you're seeing the stuff with the total too. That sort

688
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 1: of interesting. One other factor to keep in mind with

689
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:30,879
Speaker 1: regards to the total, I guess the side as well,

690
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,439
Speaker 1: is the Ohio State quarterback situation. You know, they're doing

691
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,479
Speaker 1: the thing of like, you know, we'll play both guys, YadA, YadA.

692
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see if both those guys mccorden Brown,

693
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 1: how they play in this one against you know, like

694
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,839
Speaker 1: you're mentioning an Indiana defense that is going to roll

695
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,320
Speaker 1: out the red carpet for him. It'll also be interesting

696
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 1: to see if one of the things that manifests in

697
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: is more passing and more aggression later on in the game,

698
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 1: even if the game is out of hand, because you

699
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: want to get the QB two, you want to give

700
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 1: him the legitimate looks that you all so afforded the

701
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: QB one in the first half, or you know, as

702
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 1: you sort of try to sort out that that competition whatnot,

703
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 1: that could manifest in more points as well, like not

704
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 1: just appear deflation, like the guy coming in, she's just

705
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: gonna hand off, handoff, handoff. I think you might see

706
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 1: some more passing out of Ohio state late. So I

707
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 1: would definitely shade that one over Froton to our next one,

708
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 1: a big ten team, Wisconsin, this one playing Buffalo. So

709
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 1: we have the debut of Luke Fickel. We're going to

710
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 1: see the Phil Longo offense at Wisconsin for the first time,

711
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: which is going to be very weird to watch them

712
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 1: throwing downfield and different stuff like that. Spread in the field.

713
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 1: Wisconsin right now in the marketplace, twenty seven point five

714
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 1: point favorite over Buffalo. We got a total of fifty

715
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: four and a half. Do you have any early week

716
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 1: angles on this one?

717
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 2: Man? This opened it minus twenty three and it stayed

718
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 2: there for three months. I just hung out.

719
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, yeah, minus twenty. Yeah that sounds about right.

720
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 2: And then everybody, all the scribes got writing about Wisconsin

721
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: and oh, Phil long go here. Oh we got more

722
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 2: to kai. Oh, I'm hearing good things about Will Pauling.

723
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 2: You know Braylan Allen, don't you know he's two hundred

724
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,919
Speaker 2: forty pounds running a four to four. Everything the hype

725
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 2: train got rolling, yep, and all of a sudden literally

726
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 2: in a matter of like a week. It spiked up

727
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 2: four and a half points in August just from a hype,

728
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 2: just from hype, which is impressive. You know, you gotta

729
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 2: give it to him that that is impressive. But you know,

730
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 2: I'm looking at this at twenty seven and a half, it's.

731
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 3: Like, man, Buffalo, isn't that bad?

732
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 2: You know, like this is this is the first game

733
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 2: out of Fickle. You know you got Nick McMillan where

734
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: we've been hearing a lot about him. Yeah, the promising

735
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: receiver out of Buffalo. I like Cole Snyder as a

736
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 2: quarterback for the Bulls. So you know, I'm I'm kind

737
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 2: of I'm leaning.

738
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 3: Buffalo on this.

739
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 2: I think it's just like first week, you're gonna see him,

740
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 2: You're gonna see Fickle go out from Blood like that.

741
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 3: I don't think he's gonna I don't think it's gonna

742
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 3: be that bad.

743
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:06,720
Speaker 2: So Myleen, Myleene is the under despite the big correction,

744
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: I think they've gone a little too far.

745
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is probably gonna be a stay away for me.

746
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 1: My line on this game is Wisconsin minus twenty nine

747
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,439
Speaker 1: point four. So my system certainly agrees with the line

748
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: movement to this point. But you know, with the twenty

749
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: seven and a half to twenty eight, I think it's

750
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 1: more or less fair. I don't think I'm getting too

751
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 1: much value there on Wisconsin and with Buffalo, they were

752
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 1: one of the teams that was hardest for me to

753
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 1: get my finger on last year. You know, they stunk

754
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 1: out of the gate, they lost to the FCS team.

755
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 1: Then they got hot, which put them in a position

756
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,240
Speaker 1: to go to a bowl game. But they were beating

757
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: a bunch of teams that had circumstances going against them.

758
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 1: Buffalo beat this procession of backup quarterbacks. I think they

759
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: got a QB three one time. And so then at

760
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 1: the end of the season, it's like, I don't know,

761
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 1: I don't like this Buffalo team. And they played Akron

762
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 1: as you know, that made up game at the very

763
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 1: end of the year, and Akron almost upset them to

764
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: take Buffalo out of ball season. Buffalo look lethargic in

765
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: that game. It was very hard to find that game

766
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:07,240
Speaker 1: on television. You know, get into that thing. But Buffalo

767
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 1: ends up pulling that thing out at the end they

768
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: probably shouldn't have. But then they go into ball season.

769
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 1: I'm like, this is this team is a pure fade. Well,

770
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 1: that was one of my worst calls of the ball

771
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,800
Speaker 1: season because then Buffalo actually they showed you know that

772
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 1: they came out and they fought in the bowl game

773
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: ended up beating Georgia Southern and covering. So it's a

774
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: tough one for me to put my finger on. They

775
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,399
Speaker 1: have been recruiting at a decent clip for the Mac,

776
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,839
Speaker 1: but for me, that one's going to be a stay

777
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 1: away for a time. Before we hit the last three

778
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: games that we wanted to discuss for today, I want

779
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 1: to encourage everyone out there to download the free Betting

780
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 1: pros app if and when you do, you'll notice that

781
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: you'll get all my picks on there as they happen

782
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: when I punched them in If you're following me on

783
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 1: the app, which you can do by just typing in

784
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 1: my name, and there's like a little follow button, you

785
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 1: turn on the notifications, you'll get my picks as they

786
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 1: come or anybody else that's on there. You can follow anyone,

787
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 1: turn on notifications for whoever you want. The other really

788
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 1: cool thing about the Betting pros app is you can

789
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 1: put your you can either sink your sports book so

790
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 1: it'll do it automatically for you or else you can

791
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 1: just put in your picks as you go. It not

792
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 1: only keeps track of them, but it also gives you

793
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 1: like ROI metrics. It gives you, you know, how'd you

794
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 1: do last week, have you done over the last month,

795
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: different stuff like that, And it will also sort of

796
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 1: show you the bets that you're not doing good in

797
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 1: and the bets that you are doing good. And it

798
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 1: will even suggest sort of picks within sort of your wheelhouse,

799
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 1: like what you've been doing good at and stuff like that.

800
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: It's just sort of designed to maximize to get you

801
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: better as a sports better and hopefully win more money.

802
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 1: So pause this podcast right now, download the Betting Pros

803
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,919
Speaker 1: app at bettingpros dot com, slash apps or search Betting

804
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:41,879
Speaker 1: Pros in the app store, and then toss your boy

805
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 1: a follow flip on those noties and let's terrorize the

806
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 1: sports books. Froton. The last couple of games we're going

807
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,919
Speaker 1: to talk about here, let's kick down to the G five,

808
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky again, Sell Florida, Sell Florida, bringing in the

809
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: new staff. Western Kentucky still got their staff. They still

810
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: got Austin Reid too. Froton thanks to that six figure

811
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 1: and and I'll deal in the corvette they gave him

812
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 1: in everything. This line right now, Western Kentucky minus eleven

813
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 1: point five. We got a total on this one. It's

814
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: over seventy. I always love to see that at seventy

815
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 1: point five. What are you seeing in this one?

816
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 2: Yeah? This is an interesting line start out, at least

817
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 2: in in May, it opened up at fifty seven for

818
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 2: an older and over under and that was there for

819
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 2: a month until late June we got the course correction

820
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 2: where it rocketed up to sixty eight and a half,

821
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 2: where it's now as discussed, sitting at seventy and a half.

822
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 3: So I don't know what's going on there. I think

823
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 3: it was, you know, it was that timeframe when.

824
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 2: Reid had entered the portal. I think remember you entered

825
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 2: the portal ago and like you said, the niled them.

826
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 2: You came back and then once at that it's like,

827
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 2: oh okay, well all right, Ben Arbuckle left for La Zoo. However,

828
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 2: they they've done the internal Zach Hitley coaching tree hires,

829
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 2: so everything should stay the exact same. Offensively that Corley's back,

830
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 2: you know, so everybody's in place essentially, of what it

831
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 2: was before and all systems go. And then on the

832
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,399
Speaker 2: other side you got USF, who is under the first

833
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 2: year tutelage of former Josh Typel, Lieutenant offensive coordinator of

834
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 2: Tennessee Alice Golish, who was a legitimate considered to be

835
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 2: a great offensive mind. This is his first year there,

836
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:35,439
Speaker 2: and from the reports that we're getting out of camp,

837
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 2: from everything I'm hearing, you know, from when the second

838
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 2: he got on campus, the number one thing he wants

839
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:47,280
Speaker 2: to do is go as fast as humanly possible running place.

840
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 3: Like you hear the quotes from the guys.

841
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 2: Where they go in, you know, before camp and African

842
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 2: They're like, look, I knew we were going to go fast,

843
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 2: but I realized we're going to go this fast. Is

844
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 2: kind of what the what the feeling is.

845
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 3: Just like, man, we are we are lightning in a bottle.

846
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 1: We just go, go, go, go go.

847
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 3: So you have two teams that want to go as

848
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 3: fast as they basically can't.

849
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 2: And even though you know Western Kentucky's defense was decent,

850
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 2: you know, they're still still defending against the lightning fast offense.

851
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 2: And USF gave up forty one a game last year.

852
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 3: USF was as bad as it gets defensively, so you.

853
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 2: Know, when the new offensive minded coach coming in, I

854
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:30,359
Speaker 2: don't see any particular stemming of the bleeding that's coming up.

855
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 2: So you can see why this one up seventy is

856
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 2: a bomb, as you know, for an over under.

857
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 3: But man, I can't take an under on this.

858
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And to me, the value is on the over.

859
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 1: My line is fairly close. I got WKU minus ten

860
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,839
Speaker 1: point one, but you know that at the eleven you're

861
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 1: in the dead zone. My system total on this one

862
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:53,800
Speaker 1: seventy five point five. It's five points above where it

863
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 1: is right now, and I do think that's where the

864
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 1: value is early in the week. I expect that total

865
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: to keep going up and get closer to my number

866
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 1: by the time we get to kickoff. My concern here

867
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,320
Speaker 1: definitely not the WKU offense. WKU offense is gonna be

868
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,760
Speaker 1: awesome again. No one's gonna be able to stop reading Corley,

869
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 1: and WKU's offensive line is really good. It's one of

870
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 1: the better ones in the G five. So their offense

871
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 1: is gonna be totally fine. They're gonna be able to

872
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 1: throw the ball. The problem is the defense, and you

873
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 1: start to hit on it for a time. WKU's defense,

874
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 1: I don't think people realize how solid it's been the

875
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 1: last couple of years. Last year, it allows twenty three

876
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:31,280
Speaker 1: point four points per game, leads the nation with thirty

877
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 1: two takeaways. The year before, WKU defense finished number three

878
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,879
Speaker 1: in the nation with thirty one takeaways. Now they only

879
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 1: return four starters on defense. Not a lot of experience

880
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 1: in my opinion, not a lot of talent returning on

881
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 1: that side of the ball for WKU. If they no

882
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 1: longer are getting you know, if you want to consider

883
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 1: turnovers luck or however you want to, you want to

884
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 1: consider a skill out, fine, but if that appreciates any

885
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 1: if that luck or the skill turns around the other way,

886
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 1: we know qualitatively that defense is going to be worse.

887
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: And if they're not getting the turnovers as well, that

888
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 1: defense is going to fall off a cleff. So you know,

889
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 1: then you're it's just going to be the shootouts every game.

890
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,880
Speaker 1: WKU's offense is going to be awesome, for sure. I

891
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 1: think there's a shot that their defense is an abomination

892
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 1: this year. And then you're mentioning like us F it's

893
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 1: like go go, go go go. I don't I'm not

894
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 1: gonna trust the UCFS defense or US defense out at

895
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: the gate. This is so bad last year. They're gonna

896
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 1: be able to turn that around in one year. But

897
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,400
Speaker 1: Goala should be able to coax some sort of improvement

898
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 1: out of that offense. If nothing else, you know, even

899
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 1: if they're not doing good, they're punting the ball back

900
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: to WKU WK, youre gonna be putting up points whatnot.

901
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 1: But against this WKU defense, I do think so Florida

902
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 1: could be viable on offense in that first game of

903
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 1: the Goalie era. They have a veteran quarterback, they have

904
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:49,280
Speaker 1: some skill talent Dion still two of their their starting receivers,

905
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 1: but they have some guys where they can do stuff.

906
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,439
Speaker 1: Certainly run that system, so we'll see how that goes.

907
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 1: But I would my early lean would be the over

908
00:44:57,680 --> 00:44:59,320
Speaker 1: fort on the next one. This is a game that

909
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 1: is really interesting to me personally. Cal the team that

910
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 1: was left out, left behind by the PAC twelve. They

911
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:10,320
Speaker 1: are traveling in this game to a G five opponent.

912
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 1: They're going to Denton, Texas to face North Texas in

913
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 1: a game. Right now, it's North Texas around the marketplace

914
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:21,360
Speaker 1: seven point underdog, but North Texas here, you know, starting

915
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 1: on with the new coaching staff, everything like that, a

916
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 1: system change, very offensive oriented team, the South littrel era.

917
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 1: I guess it gotten kind of stale for them whatnot.

918
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 1: And now they're playing this Cal team that in another reality,

919
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 1: I think this could have been a really frisky, interesting

920
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 1: Cal team if they had just been able to keep

921
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: all the different guys that transfer out here these last

922
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 1: couple of years. But that wasn't the case, right Like

923
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 1: Plumber has gone, Sturdevant has gone, I'm blanket a couple more.

924
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 1: But they had some you know, really interesting guys end

925
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: up transfer now and then Byron Cardwell, the guy that

926
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 1: they brought in from Oregon to platoon with Jalenot, He's

927
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:00,320
Speaker 1: now out for the season because of an injury offered

928
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 1: over this summer. So what could have been a frisky offense,

929
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that it is anymore. I don't know

930
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 1: how much I trust their defense either. Uh for a

931
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,319
Speaker 1: time with that game right now, Cal catching seven at

932
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 1: home again, I'm sorry, North Texas catching seven at home

933
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:16,879
Speaker 1: against Cal total of fifty six. Is there any early

934
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 1: week angles here did you're seeing for this game?

935
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:22,399
Speaker 2: You know, this is an interesting game because usually when

936
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:26,399
Speaker 2: when lines move a particular direction, you should stay there

937
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 2: or at least you know, it's almost inertia with lines,

938
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:32,719
Speaker 2: like once a body state guts in motion, it tends

939
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:33,439
Speaker 2: to stay in motion.

940
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 3: Once lines start to drop, they tend to stay dropping.

941
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:39,840
Speaker 2: That wasn't the case for this. You know where the

942
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,359
Speaker 2: line started out at six and a half in May

943
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:46,399
Speaker 2: and then spiked to ten and a half in late June,

944
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 2: like early July, before once again in August you have

945
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 2: just a couple of weeks ago dropped back down to

946
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 2: seven again.

947
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:56,759
Speaker 3: So you know the market has been has been up

948
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,320
Speaker 3: and down on this, I think a lot of it.

949
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 2: You have Cal bringing in Bill Muskrave, was the offensive

950
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 2: coordinator last year, a former longtime Anfell assistant.

951
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 3: He departs.

952
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 2: Incomes Jake's Babitol, who was there in twenty sixteen on

953
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:14,879
Speaker 2: the sunny dis regime at Cal, which were much more

954
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 2: fruitful days in terms of their their program. But you

955
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,359
Speaker 2: know with Eric Morris going into North Texas who at

956
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 2: Incarnate Word first time he's off the Texas Tech coach

957
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 2: and treat two years ago at Incarnate Word, they were

958
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 2: nuclear in terms of their offense. Was at Wazoo last

959
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 2: year and what didn't quite hit the way they wanted

960
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 2: it to you, which is why they have as we

961
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 2: discussed ben ark our Buckle there, but I mean he's

962
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 2: a legit air raid disciple here Morris and they just

963
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 2: announced their starting quarterbacks. I thought it Channel Rogers. Turns

964
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 2: out it's gonna be Stone Earl, who was an Abilene

965
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 2: Christian transfer from last year. Completed sixty six pround of

966
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,720
Speaker 2: his passes, so this should be once again. No, Texas

967
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 2: doesn't have any problems scoring like, this is a team

968
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:02,839
Speaker 2: that can score. I think will score again. I guess

969
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 2: my kind of question is, you know, what are we

970
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 2: getting out of Cal this year? This is justin Willcox.

971
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 2: You know, he's a defensive minded head coach. They're basically

972
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 2: Stanford East when it comes to their lack of competitiveness,

973
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 2: you know, and just overall commitment to the program. I

974
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:23,759
Speaker 2: don't really have a great read.

975
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 3: It's kind of a stay away game for me. I'm

976
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 3: interested in.

977
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 2: What you think about what you're seeing.

978
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, my line in this game is Cal minus three

979
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: point six. So I'm still showing value on North Texas there.

980
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 1: You do have to make a bit of a leap

981
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 1: into the unknown just yet, we haven't seen that team

982
00:48:39,200 --> 00:48:42,320
Speaker 1: under the new coaching staff. This stone Earl kid, I'm

983
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 1: still getting to know him. North Texas also moving into

984
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 1: the stone age, just like sim you know, so it's

985
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 1: gonna be fun times in Texas football this year. But

986
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:52,879
Speaker 1: like you said, he that was an upset them going

987
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 1: to him. But just from the line value perspective, I

988
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 1: don't love this this Cal roster right for the reasons

989
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 1: that I already met. Now, they have to travel. You're

990
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 1: going to Texas where it is going to be very

991
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 1: hot and humid. It is not that in Berkeley. And

992
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 1: then you're playing this team that you don't have tape on, right,

993
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 1: like you have to watch the Wazoo tape from last year.

994
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 1: But then a personnel gonna be you know, YadA, YadA, YadA.

995
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 1: I think North Texas got a shot to pull the

996
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:21,640
Speaker 1: upset here. They're gonna be excited in Denton the first

997
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 1: game of the new coaching staff. You bring in a

998
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 1: Power five opponent. This just this seems like a much

999
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:29,399
Speaker 1: better scenario for North Texas than it does for Cal.

1000
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:32,919
Speaker 1: And especially with the seven number, Like is this Cal

1001
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 1: offense good enough where they should be laying that amount

1002
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 1: of points to at least what it you know, I

1003
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 1: mean North Texas. I expect them to at least be

1004
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 1: like a you know, a decent G five team, not

1005
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 1: not a power anything. But I don't think Cal should

1006
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:47,280
Speaker 1: be laying that many points on the road in my opinion,

1007
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 1: So that would be the direction I would look early

1008
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 1: in the week. I think that line's going to be

1009
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 1: coming down as we go for another one out there

1010
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 1: in the PAC twelve. Another team Wazoo, who we we

1011
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 1: just brought up. They are trying going to Colorado States.

1012
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,719
Speaker 1: We have another sort of weird power fight to the

1013
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:07,280
Speaker 1: G five sort of game here Conad of State twelve

1014
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 1: point underdog corad of State, a team that the sharps

1015
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 1: in the market really took a shine to this summer

1016
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 1: mister for a time. And we have a total in

1017
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:17,400
Speaker 1: this game of fifty four and a half. What are

1018
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 1: you seeing here?

1019
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 2: Yeah? This opened up at sixteen and a half favored

1020
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 2: to Wazoo with a fifty nine total in May, and

1021
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 2: it hung there until late June where it started going down,

1022
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:37,359
Speaker 2: and then by frankly this weekend even it was still

1023
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 2: moving down.

1024
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 3: It is down to twelve now, So that's a four

1025
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:41,240
Speaker 3: and a half point.

1026
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 2: Move, and then you look at the total as well,

1027
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 2: it moved from fifty nine to fifty six and a

1028
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 2: half and then just over the weekend it fell another

1029
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 2: two points to fifty four and a half. So it's

1030
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 2: clear what you know, the market is saying. And frankly,

1031
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:00,239
Speaker 2: you know when it comes to Colorado State, yeah, one

1032
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:03,200
Speaker 2: of j Norvel last year, you know, former Nevada head coach,

1033
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:05,319
Speaker 2: took him a couple of years of getting Nevada up

1034
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 2: and run in two. But when he did, they were

1035
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 2: they were legit as far as a P five WHI

1036
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:12,799
Speaker 2: should be a T five team. You know, it took

1037
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 2: these lumps last year. They got destroyed by Washington State

1038
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 2: last year in game two thirty eight to seven. Was

1039
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 2: not competitive, but that was year zero as a straight

1040
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 2: turnover from from the immortal Steve A. Dazio, who who

1041
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:35,359
Speaker 2: did a fine job of losing games that one thought

1042
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:37,319
Speaker 2: that you couldn't lose for Colorado State.

1043
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 1: That alienating everyone who came into contracting.

1044
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:43,800
Speaker 2: Everybody, Steven Daalia, goodbye, go back to coaching, you know,

1045
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 2: offensive lind But so he had a normal had a

1046
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 2: task last year, turned this around and they would scored

1047
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 2: thirteen points a game, but they weren't as bad as

1048
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,480
Speaker 2: you'd think on d Like they only allowed one hundred

1049
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 2: and ninety one passing yards a game, you know, so

1050
00:51:57,000 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 2: like they were against Wazoo, which is that's what they do.

1051
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:02,400
Speaker 2: Then they're pretty well situated to match up with them

1052
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:07,319
Speaker 2: in that sense. But you know, it's it's year two.

1053
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 2: You got Milling, you got a great receiver, and Tory

1054
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:16,280
Speaker 2: Horton back defense isn't bad. I'm leaning towards what Colorado

1055
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 2: State and taking the points here is where I'm at.

1056
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 2: I wish I wish I could have taken it, you know,

1057
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:23,719
Speaker 2: taken it earlier, gotten into fourteen. It would have been great.

1058
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 3: But I still think it's a little hotty, you.

1059
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 1: Know, as you're What I'm leaning towards is punching in

1060
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:33,880
Speaker 1: a three leg parlay ticket here of money lines of Hawaii,

1061
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 1: North Texas, Colorado State get just crazy juice odds. I

1062
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 1: think all three of those teams have a shot to end.

1063
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 1: You know, those are ones I wouldn't be sniffing around

1064
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 1: all week. But I do think Colorado State's got a

1065
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 1: shot to ambush wise here for for some of those

1066
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 1: reasons that you're talking about Colorado State's offense, it is

1067
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:54,400
Speaker 1: guaranteed to be way, way, way way better than it

1068
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 1: was last year. Colorado State was basically the Boston College

1069
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:00,880
Speaker 1: of the G five last year, where Bustin College couldn't

1070
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 1: field an offense last year because their offensive line they

1071
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 1: had it was just ravaged by injuries, like a U

1072
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 1: League of injuries. They were converting people for a defensive line.

1073
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 1: They were putting walk ons on, they were switching people's positions,

1074
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 1: like all this difference. They just couldn't feel nothing. This

1075
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 1: is the same thing with Colorado State, right Like they

1076
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:20,319
Speaker 1: had okay talent, you know, Norvella brought some guys over

1077
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:22,480
Speaker 1: and different stuff like that, tried to you know, a

1078
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 1: bunch of new faces and stuff like that, but they

1079
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:27,840
Speaker 1: couldn't even get continuity there much less any protection or

1080
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 1: any blocking for the run game because of all those

1081
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:33,440
Speaker 1: issues on the offensive line. And yet that Clay Milling kid,

1082
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 1: the freshman, the Colorado State quarterback six three two ten,

1083
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:39,880
Speaker 1: prototypical pocket patterer. Norvel loves this kid. It was one

1084
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:42,760
Speaker 1: of the reasons he brought him over from Nevada last season.

1085
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 1: Despite playing behind this rough shot offensive line, he completed

1086
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 1: seventy two point two percent of his passes on eight

1087
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:54,840
Speaker 1: point two yards average completion, ten to six TDI and

1088
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 1: T ratio. But again, they weren't around the goal line

1089
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:59,279
Speaker 1: very much because they didn't have a run game, etc.

1090
00:53:59,480 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 3: Etc.

1091
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 1: This year, their offensive line is guaranteed to be way, way,

1092
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 1: way better, and then Millan certainly is going to improve

1093
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 1: and probably exponentially so now that he has some sort

1094
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 1: of protection. Colorado State's receiving core is good. Tory Horton

1095
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 1: is a guy the NFL is very interested in, and

1096
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:20,799
Speaker 1: you know, you think about like Millan having more time

1097
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 1: back there, I think Millan might be good. I know

1098
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:26,240
Speaker 1: that Horton is really good. So I think this Colorado

1099
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:28,960
Speaker 1: State offense is going to make an enormous leap from

1100
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 1: last year, which is an aberration anyway, you know, as

1101
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 1: the year one in nor value offensive line issues playing the.

1102
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:37,879
Speaker 2: Truth the year zero. It wasn't a year one. That's

1103
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 2: a true year zero, true year zero.

1104
00:54:40,880 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, two years zero. So yeah, the offense is going

1105
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 1: to be better. They already showed some signs on defense,

1106
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:47,839
Speaker 1: and this Wazoo team, I'm sort of the I'm lower

1107
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 1: on this Wazoo team than the market they lost so much,

1108
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 1: you know, both to the NFL Draft, you know, Dayon

1109
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:57,880
Speaker 1: Henley and guys like that, but then also sure Scott

1110
00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 1: stud but they also lost a whole the portal too,

1111
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:03,399
Speaker 1: and they weren't able to recoup what was coming back.

1112
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 1: Plus they have new coordinators on both sides of the ball.

1113
00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:08,920
Speaker 1: My take on Wazoo this year basically, you know, their

1114
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 1: win total I think was six and a half or so.

1115
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 1: The only way to me that they get over that

1116
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 1: it's if cam Ward goes from last year. To be honest,

1117
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:19,400
Speaker 1: he was pretty mediocre. You know, he got the numbers

1118
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 1: because of the volume, but he has to qualitatively make

1119
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:24,839
Speaker 1: an enormous jump up to keep Wazoo sort of at

1120
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:27,279
Speaker 1: that level that the marketplace set him out with as

1121
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 1: far as that win total goes. I don't trust cam

1122
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 1: Ward enough to do that, especially now that his boy

1123
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 1: Eric Morris, like we were just talking about, is no

1124
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 1: longer in Pullman right and and the you know another

1125
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,000
Speaker 1: factor in that this is a season long thing not

1126
00:55:40,040 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 1: going to manifest in this game. But you wonder if

1127
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 1: the fan base are they going to be sort of

1128
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:46,279
Speaker 1: out now that wazus left out in the call you know,

1129
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:49,439
Speaker 1: sort of malaise set over them. You know, I don't

1130
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:51,439
Speaker 1: really get this sense of like us against the world.

1131
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:53,439
Speaker 1: I get a sense more out of there if woe

1132
00:55:53,560 --> 00:55:55,399
Speaker 1: is me because of what went on with the Pac

1133
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 1: twelve stuff. I don't love this stuff going on with

1134
00:55:57,640 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 1: the Wazoo program. I think they're they're going to be

1135
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,319
Speaker 1: down from last year. Colorado State way up. My line

1136
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 1: on that game was you minus eight point nine. I'm

1137
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 1: still showing value on Colorado State. I think that line

1138
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:09,160
Speaker 1: keeps coming down as we go for a time. The

1139
00:56:09,200 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 1: last one we wanted to talk about today not any

1140
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:16,600
Speaker 1: line movement on this game whatsoever, but normally we had

1141
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 1: to hit it because this is obviously the game of

1142
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:23,640
Speaker 1: the weekend Florida State and LSU. The line was dropped

1143
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 1: to two and a half, you know back in May

1144
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:28,000
Speaker 1: or whatever. It is not moved at all. Like every

1145
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:30,400
Speaker 1: game that we talked about today, you know, the sides

1146
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:32,240
Speaker 1: of the total they're moving all over the place, whatnot.

1147
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 1: The market. It was just like that, you know, they

1148
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 1: got the number and they're like, oh yeah, that's good, right,

1149
00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 1: Like you've had even even amount on both sides. You

1150
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:43,680
Speaker 1: know obviously that with the line not moving. My line

1151
00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 1: on that game is LSU minus two point seven and

1152
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 1: two point So I mean, like I'm I'm right on

1153
00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 1: there too. Is there is there any angles that you

1154
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:53,840
Speaker 1: see on this one or how do you sort of

1155
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:55,799
Speaker 1: look at at the big game of the weekend head name.

1156
00:56:56,440 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 2: I guess the one angle you can really go with

1157
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:02,239
Speaker 2: that that isn't already you know, pretty well established. Just

1158
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:05,840
Speaker 2: Mason Smith being out, you know, be expended for that

1159
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 2: first game. It's like, oh, man, that's the guy for.

1160
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 1: Your big me.

1161
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 2: Put him right in the middle of the line and

1162
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 2: just weave him there and watch him create havoc, you know,

1163
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 2: right in the middle. Like that's the guy you don't

1164
00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:26,200
Speaker 2: want to have missing if you're LSU obviously, but you know.

1165
00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:29,120
Speaker 1: Going up against Dray Benson and then Travis ability to

1166
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 1: pull it down for sure, dude, you need Mason Smith.

1167
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:33,560
Speaker 2: That does concern me.

1168
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:35,480
Speaker 3: And like we're talking about Trade Benson.

1169
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 2: You know, Tray Shawn Ward was the starter for the

1170
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,840
Speaker 2: first half of the season and then he goes down

1171
00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 2: and he's now with Kansas State because Trade Benson took

1172
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:48,040
Speaker 2: over and he full on Wally Pitts Trady Shawn Ward

1173
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:50,280
Speaker 2: where it came clear. It's like, oh, this guy is

1174
00:57:50,480 --> 00:57:54,959
Speaker 2: in and it is on for trade Benson. So yeah,

1175
00:57:55,120 --> 00:57:59,000
Speaker 2: this is two and a half points. Sounds good, right up?

1176
00:57:59,080 --> 00:58:01,400
Speaker 2: Fifty nine is until fifty eight and a half moved

1177
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:03,080
Speaker 2: a half point, so you know we've got a lot

1178
00:58:03,120 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 2: of fluctuation on the total a half point in four months.

1179
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:09,480
Speaker 2: So I just think everyone's just ready for this.

1180
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 1: Well we're all ready for ready to watch My system

1181
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:15,600
Speaker 1: total right on it too, and my system total fifty nine.

1182
00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:18,520
Speaker 1: So I'm just not showing a ton of value as

1183
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:21,960
Speaker 1: far as the side goes. But yeah, you know, you know,

1184
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:24,360
Speaker 1: a game of two teams that not only are going

1185
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 1: to be competing for their conference titles, they're also CFP contenders.

1186
00:58:29,640 --> 00:58:32,160
Speaker 1: So you know, this is a fabulous one. Last year,

1187
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 1: we got it on the Monday night. Everybody was watching

1188
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 1: whatnot that was where these guys were. It turned out

1189
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 1: that both these teams were sort of ahead of schedule.

1190
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 1: You know. Obviously Florida State ended up eking that one out. LSU.

1191
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 1: We were wondering where their head was at after that game,

1192
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 1: but then they went on fire and Brian Kelly's first

1193
00:58:49,280 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 1: season and both those these teams bring back a bunch

1194
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:55,240
Speaker 1: and both these coaches are awesome in the portal, Like

1195
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:58,080
Speaker 1: they just go out they it's like we need this position,

1196
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 1: that position, that position for next year, and then they

1197
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:02,480
Speaker 1: just go out and get the best guy. It's not

1198
00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 1: like just throwing Marty Gravid's around her, you know, taking

1199
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 1: enormous numbers, a quality approach there and with the guys

1200
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 1: that they had coming back plugging those holes, Like both

1201
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:15,120
Speaker 1: these rosters are just incredible. You know, I still don't

1202
00:59:15,120 --> 00:59:16,920
Speaker 1: know how Norvel got you know, Jeer at first and

1203
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 1: some of those guys to come back. But for me,

1204
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:22,040
Speaker 1: not a ton of value here early in the week

1205
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:25,800
Speaker 1: with where this line is, but certainly something that we'll

1206
00:59:25,840 --> 00:59:28,960
Speaker 1: be monitoring throughout the week. Guys, that's all the time

1207
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:31,440
Speaker 1: that we have for today. I want to encourage everyone

1208
00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 1: to subscribe to the Betting Pros podcast so you don't

1209
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 1: miss any future episodes. But until next time. For Eric Froton,

1210
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:41,840
Speaker 1: I am Thorne Eistrom. Let's go cash from tickets