Speaker 1: Check it on Man No Down Thursday morning, October. The
Speaker 1: Beating of the Book Podcast Week number eight. Wow, Kimball,
Speaker 1: he was a week eight National Football League Live from
Speaker 1: the d R home. At least for me and Mikey anyway,
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander, it is the beating the Book of megapod
Speaker 1: to my left, the staples of the show. First of all,
Speaker 1: to my left, Mike Palm, Derek Stephen's conciliary here at
Speaker 1: Circuits Sports, vice president of Operations, co host of odds
Speaker 1: on that he does with a mall Shaw. Do you
Speaker 1: think we can get a mall on the show a
Speaker 1: little later this year as well? See what he says. Okay, um,
Speaker 1: thank you for being here as always. I know you
Speaker 1: had your booster shots. So you're not feeling very well
Speaker 1: A little bit. That's sick, but pain pain from the
Speaker 1: shot in the arm and that side and then chills
Speaker 1: I've been taking to my book, prof and so but uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I get macdair and I had the first
Speaker 1: two shots for mcdair and I and they said Madern
Speaker 1: is the strongest and longest last team. Yeah, of the
Speaker 1: vaccine and how you call it as your booster MADERNA
Speaker 1: to Maderna to the guy that gave me the shot,
Speaker 1: actually said if people had the Johnson and Johnson one shot,
Speaker 1: he was advising them to get the Modern and Booster.
Speaker 1: Oh wow, so J J. Jacob I messed it up. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: Todd wishing it from his mom's cork addict, his mom's
Speaker 1: cork addict, star of the Showtime docuseries Action for a
Speaker 1: few years back. How you doing, Totty? You good? I'm
Speaker 1: doing great. You know. I went to a DraftKings dinner
Speaker 1: last night and met some people that were fans of yours,
Speaker 1: so you know, obviously they had some poor judgment, but um,
Speaker 1: they do like you, and uh, thank you, thank you.
Speaker 1: They really like you, they said, Mikey, is you know mediocre? Wow? Well,
Speaker 1: how are you going to compare someone with no media
Speaker 1: training to somebody that's been thirty five years? You're fantastic years.
Speaker 1: You were my favorite radio per sonality from the state
Speaker 1: of Iowa. I'm being serious because I don't know Eric,
Speaker 1: So I mean, we can't joke around like we normally
Speaker 1: do till we get the cadence of the show. First
Speaker 1: time on the podcast. I should mention that to Eric
Speaker 1: that the best line I've ever shot. Aaron shot about
Speaker 1: five six minutes into the podcast. By the way, Eric
Speaker 1: Eager from Pro Football Focus Data Science his research to
Speaker 1: day aside his doctor Eric Eager. By the way, Uh,
Speaker 1: kind enough to join us on the show. Eric, great
Speaker 1: to have you. I appreciate it. I just want to
Speaker 1: know Aaron shots like six minutes into this podcast. He's
Speaker 1: been on the numbers game, he's been on my other stuff,
Speaker 1: but when he was on the policy goes, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: it's gonna take me a second to get used to
Speaker 1: the rhythm of this ship. She said. Kate, Oh, I
Speaker 1: thought he said. He did say the word Eric. Thanks
Speaker 1: for doing it, man. I appreciate it. As somebody who
Speaker 1: knows Aaron personally, I am not surprised at all that
Speaker 1: that is a classic line for him. He and I
Speaker 1: were on panels together where you know he was very
Speaker 1: much the the disheveled scientist and uh and sort of
Speaker 1: yeah he let's just say he dictated cadence. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: I will tell you this, and Aaron is I'm on
Speaker 1: aeron side on this. So we used to go to
Speaker 1: M I T. Sloan Sports and Analytics Conference for years.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you ever went eric Um, but
Speaker 1: we Aaron used to be on panels, like when they
Speaker 1: started football pro football panels, Aaron was up there. Now
Speaker 1: they like don't even ask him to be on sometimes,
Speaker 1: Like I don't know if it was this year of
Speaker 1: the last year. I haven't been the last two years
Speaker 1: because it's because he said the Patriots defense last year
Speaker 1: was one of the defenses in this year the National
Speaker 1: Football it was remember that? Uh he I tell you.
Speaker 1: There's one thing that Aaron said last year that I
Speaker 1: remember really well, and it's aged very well, which is
Speaker 1: I had the audacity to say the Chiefs they sort
Speaker 1: of seemed to play up and down to their competition
Speaker 1: this year, and Aaron goes, maybe, he goes, whoa whoa
Speaker 1: bo he goes, maybe they're just not as good as
Speaker 1: we think they are. That has aged pretty well, I
Speaker 1: will say that. So that's the that's the one shots
Speaker 1: from Mark he made last year that that I remember
Speaker 1: quite well. Todd Harry Reasoners from Iowa. You'd like to
Speaker 1: be better than Harry Reasoner. It's a clothe it's very tight,
Speaker 1: it's very it's very I wouldn't want to live on
Speaker 1: the difference. Wasn't It wasn't Harry because he was he
Speaker 1: was on a weekly Sunday at sixty minute show, whereas
Speaker 1: you're in the daily. So I had to give you
Speaker 1: the nine. Wasn't Harry reason or the guy that Barbara
Speaker 1: Walters complaint was so sexist towards her when she was
Speaker 1: coming at a lot of complaints later on after he retired.
Speaker 1: In that about he wouldn't have worked in this, Oh
Speaker 1: not at all. Not at Morley would have been okay,
Speaker 1: not Harry Morley. I didn't think we'd go down the
Speaker 1: sixty minutes row. By the way, you know it's gonna
Speaker 1: be on the megapod two weeks from now, Brent Musburger
Speaker 1: making his return. I got I got it. This is exciting,
Speaker 1: this is exciting. We have looked back then, Amy Coney,
Speaker 1: Barrett's tenure brand pre game in the in the NFL today,
Speaker 1: Remember that time you were so entertaining Brent, And remember
Speaker 1: that time. Tell me about that time, by the way,
Speaker 1: before you answer, you're such a great guy. You're amazing.
Speaker 1: Mikey and Brent went on their own little fucking tangent.
Speaker 1: Excuse pardon me. We're happy to have back. I'm sure
Speaker 1: he's thrilled he's gonna be in here. I think with us.
Speaker 1: That's the world. I think so, I think so um
Speaker 1: And he went politics right for the beginning, which was funny.
Speaker 1: All right, Uh, let us begin before we get into
Speaker 1: best bets and teasers and Survivor and all that stuff. Mikey,
Speaker 1: you have a great story here, so circum millions. How
Speaker 1: many people have Circus Survivor? How many people didn't submit Survivor?
Speaker 1: Only two, only the best week of the year, and
Speaker 1: only the Braven's really got people again, fewer than a
Speaker 1: hundred people losing Survivor. But there was a dude in millions.
Speaker 1: Can you tell this story? I can tell it. I
Speaker 1: mean the guys was one of the five way split
Speaker 1: eighteen and two the first quarter. He was in second
Speaker 1: place at twenty five and five, and he didn't submit
Speaker 1: his picks this week. Oh my god, how do you not?
Speaker 1: How how does that happen? He said? He forgot. He
Speaker 1: texted Jeff Benson and said, you know anything you can
Speaker 1: do sometime before four in that hour? I just three
Speaker 1: o'clock is the deadline? Yea? And they answer is no,
Speaker 1: there's the answer in the system. No, you can't even
Speaker 1: go in and put it's impossible. But you know that
Speaker 1: we got flooded with emails and calls after four when
Speaker 1: you know we post the website, all the people saying,
Speaker 1: what's the mistake? What's his picks? They wanted to know this.
Speaker 1: It's not listed his picks. We need to know his picks.
Speaker 1: Sure you didn't turn any in people flabber guests. God,
Speaker 1: I wonder if a guy like that now secretly hopes
Speaker 1: he just sucks the rest of the way. You know,
Speaker 1: people have their feeling about the proxies and that, but
Speaker 1: Derek has said all along, even if you're a local,
Speaker 1: pay the three hundred dollars, you're gonna get the text
Speaker 1: from the proxy right at ten am or whatever time
Speaker 1: they submit and say, hey, what are your picks? If
Speaker 1: you do forget, you get a lot of reminders from
Speaker 1: the That's crazy. I mean, that's also crazy like you
Speaker 1: to be doing so well that other people are in
Speaker 1: we gate already rooting against you or just curious what
Speaker 1: you pick, like you see if they're on the right
Speaker 1: side or not. Al Right, before we get started, do
Speaker 1: you want to take some congratulations for actually a winning week?
Speaker 1: Can we talk about survivor I want to. And I
Speaker 1: asked this question to you guys. He couldn't. He couldn't
Speaker 1: wait to us, he couldn't wait to unleash that line.
Speaker 1: He's waiting all week. It's okay, it's okay. But I
Speaker 1: thought that there was something very interesting this week, and
Speaker 1: over five hundred people took the Cardinals. I was shocked
Speaker 1: by I was shocked by that too, because they are
Speaker 1: a Christmas consideration. And even if you argue maybe the
Speaker 1: Titans now look like to play over the forty niners
Speaker 1: on that Thursday before, don't just still need like two
Speaker 1: viable teams on the Thanksgiving and Christmas from in quarterback injury.
Speaker 1: Whatever I think you do, I think you do. But yeah,
Speaker 1: six hundred people did not care about that. Tells me
Speaker 1: it's you know, we'll cross that bridge when we come
Speaker 1: to it. Thinking for a lot of people, there are
Speaker 1: still many more people still live in Circus Survivor than
Speaker 1: started Circus Survivor last year. Wow, all right, Todd, Okay,
Speaker 1: before we get to the pics, go ahead. What was
Speaker 1: our records last week? Deserves a round of applause, an
Speaker 1: absolute round of A plus. The Gilly had the Atriots
Speaker 1: minus seven. I believe. They won by five points. Believe,
Speaker 1: so text almost thought there for him, although they did
Speaker 1: get there. My I had a ten point teaser with
Speaker 1: the Texans plus twenty eight, and I got there, but
Speaker 1: the plus seven didn't. Bengals plus six was a fantastic pick.
Speaker 1: So he goes two and one to move to a
Speaker 1: robust seven and four Arizona up to twenty eight. What
Speaker 1: kind of sick oh are you? I didn't know ten
Speaker 1: point teaser idea of these three team tender teasers, so
Speaker 1: I moved. I took a all crap team teaser and
Speaker 1: it got there. Was plus twenty eight plus twenty six
Speaker 1: on the Lions and plus fourteen and a half on Seattle,
Speaker 1: and it was pretty easy. The only one that was
Speaker 1: even in doubt at all was Arizona, and it wasn't
Speaker 1: even really in doubt. Why do you think draft Kings
Speaker 1: keeps inviting him the stuff? Exactly? By the way, keep
Speaker 1: calling me the way those ten points are worth? Like,
Speaker 1: what are you doing? I disagree. I disagree because at
Speaker 1: the end of the game, the teams that are up
Speaker 1: big don't want to blow out. Look, I don't mind
Speaker 1: if people call that content blowing the ship out. Of
Speaker 1: the Jets, right, But that was that's Belichick against the Jets,
Speaker 1: and he hates the Jets. The the that's a It's
Speaker 1: a different thing when you get these these teams, like
Speaker 1: you know, Arizona doesn't want to show anything when they're
Speaker 1: out huge, they're just gonna, you know, coasting. Anyways. You
Speaker 1: can call me dumb all everybody can just laugh. I'm
Speaker 1: just I'm just want to know the thought process. But
Speaker 1: that's that's a reasonable thought. I know a lot of
Speaker 1: people think it's stupid, but when you're stupid, I'm being defensive,
Speaker 1: both of you. Okay, it's not about Eric. I'm being defensive. Eric.
Speaker 1: You called me an asshole, and I don't appreciate it. Asshole.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to I'm trying to change the cad into
Speaker 1: the show. That's right, He's already been warned and advanced.
Speaker 1: Sometimes these ten point teasers, I'm I'm literally like eleven
Speaker 1: and two and ten point teasers. Mike, you could tell
Speaker 1: you like that. Two years ago, I was giving them
Speaker 1: out and I've been doing them again this year and
Speaker 1: they're fantastic. So I'll keep laughing all the way to
Speaker 1: the bank. But you you have famously said, it's all
Speaker 1: math in the end, right, And here's Eric, who is nothing,
Speaker 1: you know who, who, if anything, loves math himself, right
Speaker 1: and can give you the value of those points. So
Speaker 1: you should appreciate that response. I think, oh, I think
Speaker 1: mathematically he's probably correct. But I think there's also a
Speaker 1: psychological component. I've seen too many NFL games where a
Speaker 1: team is a huge dog and they barely get Whenever
Speaker 1: the teams cover those huge lines, they barely do it.
Speaker 1: They don't usually wipe the team out in my experience,
Speaker 1: over a long period of time, Whenever there's some wacko
Speaker 1: college looking spread in the NFL, the teams, if they
Speaker 1: do cover it, they barely cover it. And I think
Speaker 1: it's because the better team, the better team late in
Speaker 1: the game, doesn't care to win by more. I'm glad
Speaker 1: you want man whatever. Anyways, like Gilly did win the teaser,
Speaker 1: we all want the teaser. Gilly moves to five, one
Speaker 1: and one on the teaser. Mike, he's five and two
Speaker 1: on the teaser and I am in first place with
Speaker 1: six and one on the man to beat on the
Speaker 1: teasers on the spreads, Well, actually you're an but okay,
Speaker 1: good try Mikey. Mikey was one in two last week
Speaker 1: with his Bears plus twelve and a half almost got
Speaker 1: their very close game there, Mikey, you were right in
Speaker 1: it all the way. I believe they lost five hundred
Speaker 1: three Bengals Ravens under not a chance and he did
Speaker 1: win with the Browns two. I just want I want
Speaker 1: to say one thing, because I never have ever challenged Michael.
Speaker 1: I think that Bears pick was your most peculiar pick ever. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it was bad. I should have been on no hyperpolet
Speaker 1: myself from and even Carols laughed at it on Friday.
Speaker 1: And I can't believe Mike Palm I was such a
Speaker 1: bad match. I misread the game and I went but
Speaker 1: Tampa they didn't even want to play in the second half.
Speaker 1: They shut it totally down. Absolutely. I went one in
Speaker 1: two to move to ten and eleven hit my Arizona
Speaker 1: under lost the Miami under and the Kansas City Tennessee game.
Speaker 1: I think that will go down as the strangest game
Speaker 1: in NFL history that the Kansas City Chiefs only scored
Speaker 1: three points against the Tennessee Titans defense. Please put that
Speaker 1: in the mathematical data is and tell me what percentage
Speaker 1: of time that will happen for the rest of history.
Speaker 1: Dr eric I will say, as somebody who and I'm
Speaker 1: a Kansas City fan, like I, I had Tennessee and
Speaker 1: I had Under in that game, and I had under
Speaker 1: because I thought that I thought they would be it
Speaker 1: would slow down. But for different reasons, I thought the
Speaker 1: Chiefs would try to slow the game down a little
Speaker 1: bit to protect their defense. And like the I think
Speaker 1: the craziest stat of the season so far that literally
Speaker 1: no one knows is that the Chiefs for the second
Speaker 1: straight game allowed zero second half points. And obviously it
Speaker 1: was it was a pretty like, you know, weird way
Speaker 1: to do it last week, but um you know that
Speaker 1: the scoring three. Talk about them scoring three. Actually here's
Speaker 1: some inside football and actually I have, you know, as
Speaker 1: a part of my job, I do like having interactions
Speaker 1: with these teams. We climbed out to All thirty two
Speaker 1: and one of one of the members of the team
Speaker 1: that I'm really close with was like, Hey, can you
Speaker 1: check out our r P O game? And I know
Speaker 1: if anybody knows, like RPOs are basically like run plays
Speaker 1: where you can pull the ball out of the stomach
Speaker 1: of the running back and throw the ball to a
Speaker 1: wide receiver, and on those plays linemen aren't allowed to
Speaker 1: block up field because if you do pull the ball
Speaker 1: out you throw the ball, you'll get an illegal man
Speaker 1: down field penalty. And so the Chiefs have have run
Speaker 1: the second highest rate of RPOs in the NFL, second
Speaker 1: to Arizona, and they're bad at them, and most of
Speaker 1: the NFL is really good at them. And so the
Speaker 1: thing is when the Chief's kind of half asked the
Speaker 1: run game and the past game, trying to be deceptive,
Speaker 1: they're bad at both. And interestingly, it's just because these
Speaker 1: linebackers are like when they see Mahomes put the ball
Speaker 1: in the stomach of the running back, the linebackers are saying, like,
Speaker 1: come and get us. You know, Darryl Williams is not
Speaker 1: about to get you know, We're not gonna get killed
Speaker 1: by Darryl Williams. Will get killed by Mahomes instead. And
Speaker 1: it's hurt the Chiefs offense. And if you've watched them
Speaker 1: that the Washington game, they scored thirty one points, but
Speaker 1: they were something like seven of seven or eight of
Speaker 1: eight on third downs in the second half of that game.
Speaker 1: The fact that they're getting to that many third downs
Speaker 1: is problematic for their offense. And so, you know, the
Speaker 1: Tennessee game was pretty simple. It was Tennessee took a
Speaker 1: long time to score. The Chiefs went three and out
Speaker 1: or five and out or whatever it was. Tennessee took
Speaker 1: a long time and scored. Chiefs went five and out,
Speaker 1: and then they Tennessee went and scored. The Chiefs turned
Speaker 1: the ball over. Like it's not like they had a
Speaker 1: lot of offensive plays in the first half and we're
Speaker 1: bad on all them. They like literally had like thirteen
Speaker 1: plays in the first half, and you know that, and
Speaker 1: that's how the Chiefs. They also got desperate. You can
Speaker 1: feel that desperation in my homes. When he starts to
Speaker 1: get down big, it feels like, you know, they're just
Speaker 1: forcing it, you know what I mean, They're not taking
Speaker 1: what's there. He looks like bad Aaron Rodgers. When Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers was really struggling, you know, he's not. He hits
Speaker 1: his back foot and the first thing he wants to
Speaker 1: do is scramble and make a big play. When you
Speaker 1: know that offense should be gaining seven eight yards at
Speaker 1: a time, and instead he's trying to he's trying to
Speaker 1: score fourteen points on every play, and and it's already
Speaker 1: them a little bit. It was into desperation mode worse
Speaker 1: when they're behind. The Chiefs are the Ravens. Oh yeah, ah,
Speaker 1: the Ravens do it wait better, don't they? The Ravens
Speaker 1: came back against Indie and in Kansas City and they
Speaker 1: and they stuck to their run game in both games,
Speaker 1: like they actually like do the there there? I think
Speaker 1: they come from behind a lot better just because it's
Speaker 1: weird this season, at least they've they've stuck with their
Speaker 1: base offense even with behind, and multiple scores against Kansas City,
Speaker 1: against UH Indie, even against Detroit although they got late
Speaker 1: lucked out with the field goal. Like, I think it's
Speaker 1: them to two things. One, Jason and those guys back
Speaker 1: there in the back, we've lost Mikey and I have
Speaker 1: lost our video feed of Todd and UH and Eric.
Speaker 1: If we could get that back on the screen, we'd
Speaker 1: appreciate it. The other thing is, isn't it true also Eric,
Speaker 1: that teams are blitzing Mahomes at a far lesser rate
Speaker 1: this year and so like they've figured out that he's
Speaker 1: really as a young player. He was like, super, we're
Speaker 1: good against the blitz. Let's just stop with that. Even
Speaker 1: teams that are traditional blitz teams like the Ravens, like
Speaker 1: if you look at them, they blitz. They're in like
Speaker 1: the top five in blitz rates in the league. And
Speaker 1: against Kansas City they blitz like zero times one time. Maybe, um,
Speaker 1: that was starting to happen at the end of last year.
Speaker 1: But you're right. I mean the all these defenses are
Speaker 1: engineered to beat the Chiefs. Now they're engineered to play
Speaker 1: too high, six in the box. You know, beg a
Speaker 1: team to run the football, but at worst begged them
Speaker 1: to throw it fifteen times on the way of the
Speaker 1: end zone. And it's a good numerical play, Like it's
Speaker 1: hard to throw the ball fifteen times in a row
Speaker 1: without making a mistake. So I think it's good on
Speaker 1: the flip side. That's why you've seen teams like Tennessee
Speaker 1: in Baltimore beat these teams, because a team that's engineered
Speaker 1: to beat the Chiefs, by exclusion, is not engineered to
Speaker 1: beat Derrick Henry and so like you, that's why you
Speaker 1: see maybe a team like Tennessee at success against a
Speaker 1: team like Buffalo, because you know Buffalo will will stack
Speaker 1: the box, but they don't have stacking players. They're engineered
Speaker 1: to played nicol and din uh and and stop Kansas
Speaker 1: City's offer last thing before we get the best best,
Speaker 1: because I know people want to hear the picks. But
Speaker 1: you said that the most interesting stat was that the
Speaker 1: Chiefs held their opponents to zero points in consecutive second halves.
Speaker 1: I will disagree with you. I will. I will say
Speaker 1: that the most interesting stat of the entire week came
Speaker 1: from you, Eric, which I got sort of second hand
Speaker 1: on our show, which was it was such an unbelievable stat,
Speaker 1: Eric that I questioned it openly. I'm like, that can't
Speaker 1: be true, and I looked it up you. It was
Speaker 1: your stat about Mike Shannon. Excuse me, Kyle Shanahan. You
Speaker 1: know where I'm going with this, having a worst winning percentage,
Speaker 1: a worst winning percentage of the head coach of the
Speaker 1: Niners then Mike Singletary had as the head coach of
Speaker 1: the Niners. That's unbelievable, unbelievable because we think of Singletary
Speaker 1: one way and Shannon completely differently. Yeah, I mean I
Speaker 1: remember Singletary having was too and oh in oh and
Speaker 1: had Brett Farven the Vikings on the ropes um, and
Speaker 1: they needed that miracle catch by Greg Lewis, like they
Speaker 1: had some success with Shanahan in San Francisco, just went
Speaker 1: all the hell because of you know him in many
Speaker 1: ways Um and obviously hard I did great things with
Speaker 1: that talent um after that, But yeah, I mean the
Speaker 1: thing with Shanahan, and I got a lot of flak
Speaker 1: for this in the off season because I I do
Speaker 1: this as part of my betting analysis. I build a
Speaker 1: model for play callers, and I have two models, and
Speaker 1: one of them's uniqueness of scheme, and the other one
Speaker 1: is how how well you do with the talent you have.
Speaker 1: And Shanahan, if you actually look at the numbers, has
Speaker 1: not overperformed the talent that they have on the field UM.
Speaker 1: And I think in a lot of ways you look
Speaker 1: at that and you say, well, he doesn't actually pick
Speaker 1: the talent well like they have Brandon. I you can
Speaker 1: a first round draft pick who looked like Davante Adams
Speaker 1: at times last year, He's completely disappeared. They trade up
Speaker 1: for a trade sermon, and they prepared and they prefer
Speaker 1: Elijah Chill over him. They spend all this money on
Speaker 1: on on Tevin Coleman and Rahi most who's an undrafted
Speaker 1: like seven time cut guys the guy they end up with. Like,
Speaker 1: I think Shanahan's interesting because he gets this premium. He
Speaker 1: was third in Pinnacles betting odds for they were third
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl after Kansas City and Tampa
Speaker 1: on like for months on Pinnacles betting odds to win
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Like, I think he sounds bad, but
Speaker 1: I think he's one of the more overrated entities. And
Speaker 1: all the football. Wow, it was terrible in the second
Speaker 1: half of the Super Bowl. Horrendous, absolutely horrendous and second
Speaker 1: and twice twice twice, right, the Atlanta Falcons. Right, we'll
Speaker 1: always have twenty twelve with Kyle Shannahan and a great
Speaker 1: r G three, though we always have that. I'm interested
Speaker 1: to ask herek though you rank Matt la Fleur is
Speaker 1: the number one offensive play caller? Yes, what's because he's not?
Speaker 1: Because because here's here's my thing with Matt Flour Like
Speaker 1: the Mike McCarthy offense with Rogers, I mean, Mike McCarthy
Speaker 1: had us all wondering whether or not Aaron Rodgers was
Speaker 1: washed right, And you know there were articles at the
Speaker 1: article my friend Ben Baldwin, I really respect right through
Speaker 1: the athletic and football outsiders, like he made a very
Speaker 1: compelling case and Aaron Rodgers would not affect what it
Speaker 1: was not an effective quarterback anymore. You add to that
Speaker 1: the fact that the general manager for the Green Bay
Speaker 1: Packers does not want to acquire a secondary receiver. Right
Speaker 1: if you look at the target shares in Green Bay.
Speaker 1: I gotta pull this up here, but like Davante Adams
Speaker 1: literally gets the majority of the targets there or something. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: So he's seventy two of targets and and yet they're
Speaker 1: in the in the Matt Lafleur era, they're undefeated when
Speaker 1: Davante Adams is injured. Um up, and and it's a
Speaker 1: fairly compelling case that he gets the most out of
Speaker 1: that talent. Uh, you know, as any coach and football
Speaker 1: but as a head coach, I think you had him
Speaker 1: like fourth or fifth or something. Yeah. A part of
Speaker 1: that was just because you know, longevity, like I think, um,
Speaker 1: and there was also I think he's like quote woke
Speaker 1: on fourth down. Like. But he did have that mistake
Speaker 1: against the against Tampa Bay in the playoffs where he
Speaker 1: went he kicked the field goal down eight. There have
Speaker 1: been some blunders there. There's also the fact that and
Speaker 1: I and I sort of put this in my rank,
Speaker 1: like he he took too long to fire Mike Patton.
Speaker 1: Mike Patton was clearly a negative ev play for them
Speaker 1: as a coordinator. Spot. Um, you know, you could say that.
Speaker 1: You could say the same thing about other guys that
Speaker 1: I've had, like Andy Reid stuck with Bob Sutton too long,
Speaker 1: probably cost him a Super Bowl and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: But like you know, for me, it was also just
Speaker 1: giving sort of like I think Matt Lafleur as an
Speaker 1: offensive tactician has been a little bit more impressive than
Speaker 1: him as head coach. Wow, I'm just impressive. Why wouldn't
Speaker 1: I don't know him? Some research? Is that way? You
Speaker 1: asked me every day every week with the guest in
Speaker 1: case I don't know them. I love that. This is
Speaker 1: why I lead the interviews on odds on not m all. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's great, guys, the Todd radio personality and all of
Speaker 1: my one all right. By the way, we still don't
Speaker 1: get to see your faces. Mike and I are operating
Speaker 1: a naked here. They got the best of the deal.
Speaker 1: They got the best of you. Eric, we start with
Speaker 1: you one of your three first Thursday Night Discussion. Thursday
Speaker 1: Night Discussion. Oh wait, Todd, what are the overall record
Speaker 1: you did you gain a gain on me? Are you
Speaker 1: a half game back or something? No, I'm ten and eleven.
Speaker 1: You're eleven nine and one, so you're team ahead and
Speaker 1: the lost game and Gilly is right there behind us
Speaker 1: at seven. Silby gotta beat on the teasers, by the way.
Speaker 1: Um okay, so yes, you're right, Todd. We should talk
Speaker 1: about Thursday night football. This could be one of our opinions. Okay,
Speaker 1: you have opinion? Is it one of your best bets? Yes? Okay?
Speaker 1: Uh so it is the Cardinals and the Packers tonight,
Speaker 1: Cardinals favored by six and a half. Now now that
Speaker 1: we know that both alums are did more importantly, Davante Adams.
Speaker 1: I think it's a hundred percent that he's not playing
Speaker 1: at this point. Someone said it was like, but it
Speaker 1: looks like he's not playing. He's not playing. He didn't
Speaker 1: make the trip. Uh. As Eric said, the Packers are
Speaker 1: six and oh since the beginning of twenty nineteen without
Speaker 1: without Davante Adams, which everybody threw around mainstream media. But
Speaker 1: if you dive a little deeper on those six games, uh,
Speaker 1: they beat the eight and eight Cowboys Week five of
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. They beat the three twelve and one Lions
Speaker 1: Week six of nineteen. That was the game that everybody
Speaker 1: started noticing. Alan wizard Um. Green Bay had to benefit
Speaker 1: from some hands in the face penalties late in that
Speaker 1: game to come back and rally back to beat the
Speaker 1: eventual three twelve and one Lions Week seven of twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1: They beat the eventual seven and nine Raiders Week gate
Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen. They did beat a twelve and four
Speaker 1: Chiefs team, but guess who wasn't playing? Patrick Mahomes always in.
Speaker 1: And then the two games last year without Davante again
Speaker 1: they won all of them. There were six and oh
Speaker 1: straight up five and one against the spread. UH. The
Speaker 1: Week three game against the Saints says the Saints finished
Speaker 1: twelve and four all. They didn't have Michael Thomas either
Speaker 1: the Saints in that game, and it was a Zadarius
Speaker 1: Smith forced fumble of Taysom Hill who was in as
Speaker 1: quarterback in that game that that was the eventual game winner.
Speaker 1: That was another Alan Lazard game. By the way, guess
Speaker 1: who else isn't playing Alan lazard Um And then finally
Speaker 1: Week four of last year, they beat the Falcons. Falcons
Speaker 1: ended up four and twelve and guess what, Julio Jones
Speaker 1: exited that game in the second quarter. That was the
Speaker 1: Tonyan game, the Robert Tonyan game if you remember. So. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they were six and oh but it's not without its awards,
Speaker 1: I guess is what I'm saying. Eric, do you have
Speaker 1: an opinion on tonight's game, either side or total. I
Speaker 1: actually think the number is probably right. Um there was
Speaker 1: a great discussion. I know you've had uh Andy or
Speaker 1: Drew from the Whale Caver podcast on your shows before.
Speaker 1: Um Gil, the number of points is not necessarily you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's not uniform, right, moving from three and a
Speaker 1: half to six and then six and a half. It
Speaker 1: has a lot to do with like the lack of
Speaker 1: a value in the NFL four and five, as well
Speaker 1: as what I would call cluster injuries. And I have
Speaker 1: an article on PFF dot com where I talk about
Speaker 1: how a team does is actually far more correlated with
Speaker 1: how the secondary and tertiary receivers of a team do,
Speaker 1: and so a lot of times if you lose two receivers,
Speaker 1: it's worth more than two times losing both of them,
Speaker 1: um individually. So I think that that's a big issue here.
Speaker 1: Wide receiver is very much a weak link system, and
Speaker 1: so that's where I get I get a little bit worried.
Speaker 1: But my opinion on this game is, I think when
Speaker 1: you look at the team total here, it depends upon
Speaker 1: where you look, like Arizona thirty minus one twenty is
Speaker 1: where I'm looking a little bit off shore. If you
Speaker 1: can find a better number, I think Arizona goes over this.
Speaker 1: I also like the over in the general game, UM.
Speaker 1: But I think when you when you think about Arizona,
Speaker 1: they've they've had three statement games this year's underdogs at
Speaker 1: home against tennis or sorry on week one against Tennessee
Speaker 1: at Cleveland, UM, and then they had the other one
Speaker 1: against l A. They've made these statement games as dogs
Speaker 1: and no one's really still no one treats them as
Speaker 1: a sevenin O team. Like I do think that there's
Speaker 1: going to be some sort of like we really need
Speaker 1: to prove it to the league tonight, and so I
Speaker 1: do think they put up thirty against what I've characterized
Speaker 1: as a soft gooley Green Bay Packers defense. And that
Speaker 1: leads right into my my pick of the week. If
Speaker 1: you want to hear my day, let's go my one
Speaker 1: of my three picks is going to be the over
Speaker 1: fifty and a half in this ballgame. And the reason
Speaker 1: I like it um is, first of all, Okay, on
Speaker 1: the bad side, for all we've got all these injuries
Speaker 1: of Green Bay, we still have Aaron Rodgers though Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers is still the quarterback, and all I need for
Speaker 1: him to get me is, say twenty one points. If
Speaker 1: Arizona is going to put up numbers green base defense,
Speaker 1: is green Day based defense really that great? They gave
Speaker 1: up thirty eight to New Orleans in Week one, and
Speaker 1: then they have nice number is against crappy teams. Detroit
Speaker 1: scored seventeen, Pittsburgh got seventeen, Chicago got fourteen, Washington Redskins
Speaker 1: no offense to my good friend Gilly Ice got ten.
Speaker 1: But that's because they stink and they figured out Heineke.
Speaker 1: So when they when they played against good offensive teams, look,
Speaker 1: Cincinnati got twenty two and could have had twenty eight
Speaker 1: if they went to miss the thousand field goals as well.
Speaker 1: So I think there's no reason why Arizona can't get
Speaker 1: thirty one in this game. And then all you need
Speaker 1: is Rodgers to get you twenty one. Even without receivers,
Speaker 1: he can get your twenty one. Rodgers will find a
Speaker 1: way to to to smoke in mirrors you up to
Speaker 1: to get the one. So give me over fifty and
Speaker 1: a half in this game. I think it's too low.
Speaker 1: And also the fact that it's come down. I believe
Speaker 1: it opened, uh somewhere in like the fifty three range.
Speaker 1: I just think it's it's fifty three and a half.
Speaker 1: Even I think it's it's too much of a reaction.
Speaker 1: I still have Aaron Rodgers. And by the way, if
Speaker 1: I get back door, if it's a situation where where
Speaker 1: I get Aaron Rodgers, is the backdoor quarterback, you know,
Speaker 1: down fourteen points later or something, Chuck, I'll take that
Speaker 1: all day long. Give me the over fifty and a half.
Speaker 1: He also failed to mention cause that the with that
Speaker 1: Washington three points total with four red zone possessions and
Speaker 1: five possessions inside the thirty last week, the Redskins should
Speaker 1: have covered easily. Then. That included the Taylor Heinekey third
Speaker 1: down dive forward stop progress when he could have just
Speaker 1: waltzed in, not waltz but and then the yeah he
Speaker 1: Lambeau leaved because he loved the Packers growing up. And
Speaker 1: then he fumbles on four three gathers and they said
Speaker 1: it was stopped at the regather too. Don't don't get
Speaker 1: me started. Um okay, So that's that's your number one.
Speaker 1: That's your number one bet. Okay. I love I love
Speaker 1: Gilly talking about the Washington football team. He's just like
Speaker 1: he's so disappointed. He's just don't just don't get me started.
Speaker 1: Years of years of sorrow. Oh they were such a
Speaker 1: gem as a kid. All right, Uh, Eric, your first
Speaker 1: bet that you love or do you have any Thursday
Speaker 1: night thoughts? I'm sorry. I want to take the Packers
Speaker 1: here with six and a half, but I can't be
Speaker 1: because they have no no they'll pick, they have no
Speaker 1: pass rush. They could never get to Taylor Heineke last
Speaker 1: week A. You're gonna sit there and let the little
Speaker 1: road runner now sit back there without any pressure. I'm
Speaker 1: concerned you go road running. I'm concerned. Well that's yeah,
Speaker 1: and instead of mayor of bunch, can build it your
Speaker 1: your friend. Nicko Lombardico doesn't this game remind you of
Speaker 1: the game Green Bay played last year where they went
Speaker 1: on the road against San Francisco and like basically all
Speaker 1: of San Francisco's players were out and that spread was
Speaker 1: something like six and it was because the market, like
Speaker 1: I mean, the books, I mean you could you guys
Speaker 1: could say this better than me, but like the books
Speaker 1: don't like opening themselves up to that big of a middle, right,
Speaker 1: and so like you have, you know, in that game,
Speaker 1: I believe San Francisco was six and a half point
Speaker 1: dogs by the time that all was said and done,
Speaker 1: even though they had no players, and green Bay kind
Speaker 1: of like, you know, mop the floor with them. Like
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily know if that's going to happen because
Speaker 1: of the point you made, Todd, which is at Green
Speaker 1: Bay as Aaron Rodgers and I and Matt laflour um,
Speaker 1: But I do I do wonder if if people are
Speaker 1: gonna take Green Bay, do they see the tail risk
Speaker 1: here where like having no players really hurts you, Aaron
Speaker 1: Jones helps, but yeah, it's tough to take the Packers here.
Speaker 1: Can I just say one thing about what he just
Speaker 1: said about middles Place real quick? If you watch people
Speaker 1: who don't bet end end game, you should start paying
Speaker 1: attention to end game. Because the Indianapolis San Francisco game,
Speaker 1: for the entire first half of the game, there were
Speaker 1: books that we're playing forty seven and a half while
Speaker 1: the other one was fifty. And then it would go
Speaker 1: fifty three and a half to fifty six, and then
Speaker 1: it would go fifty one to fifty three and a half.
Speaker 1: So I don't know who's right who's wrong, But the
Speaker 1: bottom line is the bottom line is would you say
Speaker 1: someone's wrong? Yeah, So the bottom line is you don't
Speaker 1: ever see middles and before you know, you can't go
Speaker 1: to a Vegas sports book before the game and get
Speaker 1: three and a half and then go down to circle
Speaker 1: and get six. It doesn't exist, right. You have to
Speaker 1: you have to predict where the market's going to go.
Speaker 1: You can get part of that. The longer the game
Speaker 1: goes in, the more the high of the probability on
Speaker 1: some of those numbers, like a lot of middles. Like
Speaker 1: early early career sports betters will bet middles not knowing
Speaker 1: that the points are not worth a big But the
Speaker 1: later you go into some of these games, especially if
Speaker 1: you're still getting and oftentimes you're not getting this, but
Speaker 1: like if you're still getting minus one ten on both sides. Oftentimes,
Speaker 1: like the later on the game goes, the higher the
Speaker 1: probability of landing on certain key numbers right as you
Speaker 1: get some middles are actually more. Again, the most books
Speaker 1: have these, but there are soft offshore books. There are
Speaker 1: soft books. Um. You know, the further along you get
Speaker 1: in the game, the higher the probability is that you
Speaker 1: land on a number in the middle of those two.
Speaker 1: Of course, well, of course, because you're getting closer to
Speaker 1: the end and you have less of a game to go.
Speaker 1: But my point is, but my point is if you
Speaker 1: if you don't like in game right, you should start
Speaker 1: liking it because if you get opportunities like this. I'm
Speaker 1: not even saying you should go for middles. I'm just
Speaker 1: saying have an opinion on the game. If you like
Speaker 1: forty seven and if you like go over, take forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half, if you like under take under fifty.
Speaker 1: The point is, where else do you see giving away
Speaker 1: two and a half points in the in NFL? Ever?
Speaker 1: Never know the short runaway point is such a such
Speaker 1: a great one. Though our buddy he loves to take
Speaker 1: advantage of short runways in multiple sports. I think he
Speaker 1: does it so very well in the NBA and baseball,
Speaker 1: especially because what he does is bet, you know, bet
Speaker 1: the bet the um under and then trying to get
Speaker 1: through the bottom of the lineups. That's that's the play
Speaker 1: with quality pictures sophisticated. But but even for the people
Speaker 1: who aren't sophisticated with getting middles, I'm just saying, if
Speaker 1: you're gonna pick a side, you're still getting an incredible
Speaker 1: advantage here, you know what I mean. All Right, we
Speaker 1: gotta we gotta because Mikey has a show to do,
Speaker 1: so we gotta we gotta get to the best bets
Speaker 1: that we gotta get through. By the way, we should
Speaker 1: mention J. J. Watt is out tonight. He's probably out
Speaker 1: for the is out for the rest of the season,
Speaker 1: season ending shoulder surgery. They just flashed up a stat
Speaker 1: here he has missed thirty two of the last eighty
Speaker 1: seven games since the year J. J. Watt has and
Speaker 1: the Packer stat that everybody flashes up twenty five and
Speaker 1: oh the path Kers are under Matt Lafleur in the
Speaker 1: regular season when they win a turnover margin or when
Speaker 1: they don't play in California or Florida. I think there's
Speaker 1: a similar state. All right, Eric, your first best bet is, yeah,
Speaker 1: this is my my boss's game, Chris's game. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with with Dallas laying uh, you know, anything up
Speaker 1: to two and a half against Minnesota. UM. I tweeted
Speaker 1: this out yesterday. Minnesota. If you look at the the
Speaker 1: bottom five quarterbacks in the NFL and average stepth of
Speaker 1: target in the first three quarters of a game on
Speaker 1: early downs, it's Jared Goff, It's Kirk Cousins, Jacoby Brissett, Um,
Speaker 1: big Ben Roethlisberger, and Andy Dalton. That's one good quarterback
Speaker 1: and four guys who should be backups. And people wonder
Speaker 1: why Minnesota plays so many close games and why they
Speaker 1: get snake bitten by you know, field goals and all
Speaker 1: this kind of stuff. It's that they don't trust Kirk Cousins,
Speaker 1: and you know, Kirk turned. Kirk has turned into John
Speaker 1: Elway at the end of games this year end Like,
Speaker 1: I think he deserves a great deal of credit, But
Speaker 1: in the first part of games they cut him off.
Speaker 1: And against teams like Caroline, against seems like Detroit, that
Speaker 1: will work. Against the team like Dallas. When the Vikings
Speaker 1: don't have when the Vikings don't have Michael Pierce, when
Speaker 1: the Vikings don't have uh Patrick Peterson in the lineup,
Speaker 1: I think Dallas could lap the Vikings by the time
Speaker 1: they figure out they're even in the game. Okay, mikey
Speaker 1: yere number two your first. Yeah, I'm gonna take the
Speaker 1: Los Angeles charges charges? What is it? Five? Todd, Yeah,
Speaker 1: los Angeles chargers. I have as five, five and a half.
Speaker 1: We'll give you the five. Look embarrassed slashed here by
Speaker 1: the Patriots and so five it was like a million
Speaker 1: or nothing, forty five to nothing or whatever. And that
Speaker 1: Anthony Lynn fiasco as well. I know Rufus says Anthony
Speaker 1: Lynn very underrated and there's no value in having Staley
Speaker 1: as the coach. One of the most interesting conference on
Speaker 1: the podcast this year. Yes, look, here's the other thing,
Speaker 1: um and the charges off of buy here's the other thing. Though.
Speaker 1: I love this move to get rid of Kayne, Oh
Speaker 1: finally the kicker and go to Hopkins. I think that's
Speaker 1: a huge upgrade for them at the kicking position because
Speaker 1: I also they will have confidence in him when the
Speaker 1: coaches losing a confidence just like Washington didn't. Hopkins gets
Speaker 1: the new guy and he gets the kick block. Now
Speaker 1: next time, Rivera is not even gonna take the field
Speaker 1: goal because he got the premium. I mean, it's snowballs
Speaker 1: when you have confidence or you don't have confidence in
Speaker 1: the kicker. I think the Chargers are the better team here.
Speaker 1: It's a better spot for them on a five. God, no,
Speaker 1: it's your first person is over. I'm this is yeah. Listen,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna go San Francisco forty Niners here
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna lay. Yeah, yeah, I think I am.
Speaker 1: What is it three and a half or four? I
Speaker 1: have niners? You know what, it's mostly four. We'll give
Speaker 1: you the three half. Well, if it's mostly four, give
Speaker 1: me the four. So four it is. Um, Khalil Mack
Speaker 1: is out. Do we know that for a fact? He
Speaker 1: is out for the for the Bears. He's out, Uh doubtful.
Speaker 1: So sounds like he's out doubtful typically meeting out these days.
Speaker 1: But we'll see. Um, Jimmy Jimmy g is in. Listen.
Speaker 1: I let's let's get rid of the atmospheric river game
Speaker 1: for a second. Um, all that we've said about the Niners,
Speaker 1: rings true. But if this team is anything like they're
Speaker 1: supposed to be, you have to be able to beat
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears team justin fields with five turnovers last week,
Speaker 1: and yet it was against the Bucks. Um. But he
Speaker 1: is just he looks bewildered when he's on the sideline. UM,
Speaker 1: I like San Francisco here because if I have my
Speaker 1: own personal priors, this spread would shock me at that point.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna rely on those About these two teams,
Speaker 1: I don't think the Bears are a good football team
Speaker 1: in any way. Uh, they will try to rely on
Speaker 1: their run game, which is what I didn't understand about
Speaker 1: it going up against Tampa Bay. But I didn't think
Speaker 1: they would because you can't run the ball in Tampa.
Speaker 1: Even Dallas knew that. With Ezeki Eli, they didn't even
Speaker 1: try to run the ball. You can't run the ball.
Speaker 1: And here comes Naggie on first down the first play
Speaker 1: of the game, run the ball and getting the second
Speaker 1: and twelve, and the game was over. At that point.
Speaker 1: The game was over. This guy, though he sends his
Speaker 1: no pressure. He's got like Dave Craig hands or something.
Speaker 1: He fumbles every time he gets hit. He's terrible. I think.
Speaker 1: I also think Naggie is terrible. Naggie is a terrible
Speaker 1: play caller. Well, so I'm gonna go with the coaching
Speaker 1: advantage here too. I I still think Kyle Shanahan. Again,
Speaker 1: maybe this is the RG three year polluting my thinking
Speaker 1: on Kyle Shannon um, but I absolutely But what about
Speaker 1: the year he had Matt Ryan too? Such a standout
Speaker 1: here for Matt Ryan, he did get crushed into the
Speaker 1: second half of the Super Bowl, but he did have
Speaker 1: that year. I'm taking San Francisco called a Malcolm Gladwell
Speaker 1: blink thing where I can see the Niners. But by
Speaker 1: the way, they do have to figure out what the
Speaker 1: deal is with Brandon Aiyuk. That dude has disappeared twenty
Speaker 1: targets all year, ten catches all year for fewer than
Speaker 1: a hundred yards. It's unbelievable that he has. Jimmy g
Speaker 1: has the most interception babbit I've ever seen in my entirely.
Speaker 1: It finally caught up with him late in that game
Speaker 1: last year last week. But he throws the ball to
Speaker 1: the other team every play and they drop it right
Speaker 1: in the dropped the interception that drop Kirk Cousins in
Speaker 1: d c was that had the best babbit go whatever.
Speaker 1: That dude would pit pit defenders in the chest, that
Speaker 1: it would somehow bounce off them all the time. So
Speaker 1: I'm going I'm going with the Niners. What's that? I
Speaker 1: like calling it babbit. That's a cool Yeah, that's our
Speaker 1: little thing. Alright. Holmes is bad at the zero this year.
Speaker 1: Uninterceptible ball. That's right, he's it's a negative number. Yeah, alright, Eric,
Speaker 1: your number two. Okay. I I actually kind of liked Chicago,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna go away. I think Chicago is a
Speaker 1: great bet when everybody says they're the worst team in football,
Speaker 1: which I think that was that happened against Detroit week whatever.
Speaker 1: But this is the one. I'm gonna go a second.
Speaker 1: Carolina at Atlanta over I thought we were gonna match.
Speaker 1: We did not match, but I thought we were to Carolina.
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan uh this season Um has has really looked good.
Speaker 1: He has a one point for passer rating when pressured.
Speaker 1: So a lot of the narratives about him being kind
Speaker 1: of like Wilting this year and not having the arm
Speaker 1: strength or anything, I think those are a little bit overblown.
Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts once they found out how to use him
Speaker 1: as you know. Now you know my opinion, probably the
Speaker 1: tight end I'd pick over anybody in the league if
Speaker 1: you gave me a choice. Moving forward, Ridley has been fine.
Speaker 1: I think as a secondary player to Pitts, he's he's great,
Speaker 1: And Cordell Patterson's a guy that I think they're using
Speaker 1: really well. Um, So I think on that side the ball,
Speaker 1: they're gonna be fine. There's a lot of injuries on
Speaker 1: the side, uh of Carolina, you know, the cornerbacks Shaq
Speaker 1: Thompson questionable. And then on the other side the we
Speaker 1: only you know, any any defense that gives up four
Speaker 1: touchdown passes the to a tongue of Valoa is on
Speaker 1: watch for me. And so while Sam Donald has been
Speaker 1: absolutely horrible over the last like three or four weeks,
Speaker 1: I think he gets right here. It's also indoors, So
Speaker 1: that really helps give me the over in that game. Eric,
Speaker 1: Can I ask a question. Yes, Michael Lombardi this week
Speaker 1: keeps saying I don't care what two is no good,
Speaker 1: I don't care what Pro football focus. He said on
Speaker 1: my show, He goes, I don't care what Pro football
Speaker 1: Focus is. Just pro football Focus. Have two ranked in
Speaker 1: the top top seven or eight quarterbacks or something. He said,
Speaker 1: two eight grades in the last two games. So, um,
Speaker 1: look at his war is probably still in the bottom
Speaker 1: half of the league, but he's his last two games
Speaker 1: have looked have looked good. I think part of part
Speaker 1: of the issue though is small samples. And they've also
Speaker 1: played Jacksonville in the Land in the last week, so
Speaker 1: I would curb my enthusiasm about too. Uh. But but yeah,
Speaker 1: he's graded well. Uh. Michael Lombardi also said the same
Speaker 1: thing about J. J. Watts when he was signed by
Speaker 1: Arizona and J J. Watson a monster this year. So
Speaker 1: you know, we'll see what the batting averages on the
Speaker 1: I don't care what PF thinks about player X to
Speaker 1: it was six I think in terms of the last
Speaker 1: two weeks. He has six in terms of the quarterback
Speaker 1: rading the last two weeks, but not overall. Uh. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he he took a he took a shot because I
Speaker 1: listened to that, so he took a shot. He really
Speaker 1: good at picking out who's really entertaining on the radio. Okay,
Speaker 1: hey pick number pick number two, Mikey. But this is tough.
Speaker 1: I I don't know, this is all sucks. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: it's so it is. Really I like this this this
Speaker 1: slate worst than last week. Yeah, I did me too,
Speaker 1: Ah you want me to go second second? You know,
Speaker 1: I looked at this for an hour this morning, and
Speaker 1: I came up with one playing one. He was too
Speaker 1: busy researching Eric. He didn't get his picks, I was.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's you's a legitimate question. Is there any
Speaker 1: angst for Eric talking about football for a living having
Speaker 1: gotten his degrees from Nebraska Lincoln. You don't get it
Speaker 1: now you don't watch college football. I'm I'm being facetious. Obviously,
Speaker 1: I was a big BRODSCAT fan growing up, so I
Speaker 1: have disdain for what's happened, huge huge. I stood in
Speaker 1: line at Starbucks next Joe Opolini when I was there,
Speaker 1: and I knew the guy was going to be a
Speaker 1: bad coach, and seeing how difficult to order a lot
Speaker 1: that's awesome. I looked capable of just like you know,
Speaker 1: nourishing so great. I knew from my moming Sorry Todd,
Speaker 1: her number two, Todd, Sorry, okay, my number two. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go back to the well that got me a
Speaker 1: w last week. If you guys were paying attention. I
Speaker 1: took the under in the Arizona Houston game. Why did
Speaker 1: I do it? I said, Houston cannot score the football. Um,
Speaker 1: you don't really have to be a math genius to
Speaker 1: look at the scores for Houston and realize they're having
Speaker 1: a hard time getting the double digits any week in
Speaker 1: National Football League play. Take out the Tyrod Taylor games,
Speaker 1: and they got twenty four against their I mean, they
Speaker 1: got nine against Arizona, zero against Buffalo, twenty two against
Speaker 1: New England, which is the outlier, three against Indianapolis, and
Speaker 1: five last week at Arizona. So to me, I don't
Speaker 1: think the Houston offense is a team that can get
Speaker 1: more than ten points in this football game against the Rams.
Speaker 1: I just don't see it. The Stanford quarterback is not good.
Speaker 1: The rest of the offense is not good, so the
Speaker 1: whole the team is not good. I'm sorry. They they're
Speaker 1: okay on defense, but on offense they're absolutely horrendous. So
Speaker 1: if I give them ten points and I'm saying I'm
Speaker 1: going under forty eight, and guys check me if I'm not.
Speaker 1: Is it forty eight or forty seven and a half?
Speaker 1: Forty eight? Okay? So I'll take the under forty eight,
Speaker 1: which means even at thirty eight ten I would still
Speaker 1: push ten I get a win. So give me the
Speaker 1: under in the Rams against Houston under forty eight, because
Speaker 1: I think a lot of these NFL teams when they
Speaker 1: play Houston, they get up a million points there in
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter to just running the ball. Let's end
Speaker 1: this game. We don't need to show anything. We don't
Speaker 1: need to throw the Cooper cop or Robert Woods or
Speaker 1: any of that nonsense. Just give it to Henderson. Let's
Speaker 1: end the game and get the hell out of here.
Speaker 1: We win thirty three to six. You know, so under
Speaker 1: forty eight in the Rams game, I just don't see
Speaker 1: Houston scoring enough to get you over Alright, Mike, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with Todd. What's the total in the Broncos
Speaker 1: football team game? The Broncos football team, uh is playing
Speaker 1: the Washington football team, and I have you're looking for
Speaker 1: the football the total total points scored in the game
Speaker 1: for both football games at some forty four and a
Speaker 1: half and some forty four's. We'll give you the forty
Speaker 1: four and a half because we're feeling generous that well,
Speaker 1: you don't know all that way I'm going over, so
Speaker 1: give me the forty four over. Yeah, look at look
Speaker 1: at the football team couldn't get Bishop Gorman off the
Speaker 1: field on third down. They can get nobody off the
Speaker 1: field on third down. And look this Denver team, they
Speaker 1: have no linebackers. The whole linebackers are out out. You know.
Speaker 1: They let case Keenum sit back there. The guy hadn't
Speaker 1: played like fourteen years, be very comfortable in the pocket
Speaker 1: on Thursday night and acclimate himself to the game. I
Speaker 1: also think the elevation in Denver helps the football team
Speaker 1: kicking him. Look, they went up and down the field
Speaker 1: against the Packers, they just didn't convert. They didn't pay
Speaker 1: off here. I think this total is too low. Two
Speaker 1: gloves will convert enough there downs and Washington will score
Speaker 1: more in the red zone over forty four Todd, Okay,
Speaker 1: I am vic Fangio. Defensive struggle. I still don't get.
Speaker 1: And then he said, oh, Deshaun should want to go
Speaker 1: to Denver yesterday. He never gets off this vic Fangio.
Speaker 1: We should spend like ten minutes, but I cann The
Speaker 1: trade deadline is Tuesday, and I still like, if you
Speaker 1: sift through that NFL word salad that they came out
Speaker 1: with it is you. I thought I would assume that
Speaker 1: teams are going down the trade road with Houston having
Speaker 1: some sign of some kind of back uh, you know,
Speaker 1: back channel confirmation from the NFL that DeShawn will be
Speaker 1: able to play this year. And it appears by Roger
Speaker 1: Goodale just opening up his mouth and saying, hey, I
Speaker 1: can't put him on the exemplist. I don't have enough
Speaker 1: information that he's signaling to all the teams. Yeah, he
Speaker 1: can play for you this year. I don't know about
Speaker 1: next year, but he can play for you this year.
Speaker 1: So that appears to be the case. But what does
Speaker 1: it say about DeShawn that Miami's the team he wants
Speaker 1: to play for that has six losses. What does it
Speaker 1: say about the Dolphins saying we were wrong about Twah.
Speaker 1: Shouldn't they all be fired right because they picked two
Speaker 1: over Justin Herbert. What does it say about the NFL
Speaker 1: who gave Zeke six games when that there was like
Speaker 1: an affidavit saying none of this really happened because they
Speaker 1: were so bummed that they were they were so sensitive
Speaker 1: to how they treated Ray Rice and Josh Brown and
Speaker 1: now Deshaun who has twenty two civil allegations and ten
Speaker 1: criminal complaints. They're like, yeah, we we don't have enough information.
Speaker 1: Just he should Playze is incredible. There were a couple
Speaker 1: of bad stories at massage parlors. What it could happen anyway? Eric,
Speaker 1: what's your take on this? Uh that if you're assuming
Speaker 1: any sort of logical consistency or coherence in the NFL's
Speaker 1: application of anything, you're you're like missing how to You're
Speaker 1: missing the point? Like I just you know it. The
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson thing is interesting, right because I think when
Speaker 1: owners look at him, they see dollars, right, they see
Speaker 1: one of the top five um talented talents in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Like he he's probably what a notch below Mahomes And
Speaker 1: so when you when you have that player on your team,
Speaker 1: like that's what they're all going after, right, And so
Speaker 1: I think that's why the owners are sort of and
Speaker 1: Goodell is sort of doing their bidding right Like the
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know if they could. I mean,
Speaker 1: they could pay me enough to do Goodell's job, but
Speaker 1: like to to stand in front and take those bullets
Speaker 1: and and I could look like a complete idiot when
Speaker 1: when God knows he's not. He's like that, that's that sucks.
Speaker 1: It's just incredible. Exactly he knows better. That's a well put,
Speaker 1: that's a what is what is the technical story right
Speaker 1: now for Deshaun? Are they saying it's like up in
Speaker 1: the air? What is the what is the NFL story
Speaker 1: right now? As long as he's with Houston, they don't
Speaker 1: The NFL doesn't have to do anything because there's sort
Speaker 1: of this purgatory thing happening and they don't have to
Speaker 1: rule on anything. Right as soon as he gets traded,
Speaker 1: they would have to step in and say he is Houston,
Speaker 1: Houston saying we're not playing him because of this? What
Speaker 1: was the Houston's not playing him because you're like, yeah,
Speaker 1: they he doesn't want to play because he doesn't want
Speaker 1: to play right perfect level of dysfunction for the Technically,
Speaker 1: technically he could play if he wanted to play right now,
Speaker 1: he could play for Houston right now. Yes, the NFL
Speaker 1: would have to step in, So what's he so, what
Speaker 1: is his argument that he doesn't want to play, He
Speaker 1: doesn't want to be there anymore. He think he thinks
Speaker 1: they leaked all these stories he's doing the NBA. You
Speaker 1: know the NBA thing where it's like I'm dictating, Well,
Speaker 1: that's nonsense. I this whole thing is too smells. I
Speaker 1: haven't sports one place where there's not craziness. Can I
Speaker 1: just have one part of my life where the people
Speaker 1: haven't gone totally insane? Do I have to deal with this?
Speaker 1: And even in sports? Please? Can I just have a
Speaker 1: quarterback that Okay, I'm taking Carolina. Okay, I'm taking Carolina.
Speaker 1: Caroline on my mind. Um Falcons defense stinks. They're last
Speaker 1: in the NFL in defensive yards per point and uh,
Speaker 1: Carolina is they? Yeah? That the last in the in
Speaker 1: the NFL and in defensive yards per point, meaning that
Speaker 1: they've had a very bend, don't break kind of defense
Speaker 1: to this, to this juncture, Carolina has had, believe it
Speaker 1: or not, a tougher schedule than Atlanta has had. And
Speaker 1: I know Sam Donald was just Sam Donald ish last
Speaker 1: week by the way they put in p J Walker
Speaker 1: hoping hoping they could get something. P J Walker, I
Speaker 1: know he was a was the XFL. Just in the XFL,
Speaker 1: I believe it was. I didn't know him. He he
Speaker 1: went three for fourteen, three for fourteen for thirty three yards.
Speaker 1: So it's back to Sam Donald. By the way, some
Speaker 1: reports Joe Clapp finally came out today and say Matt
Speaker 1: Rule doesn't really like coaching in the NFL. So I'm
Speaker 1: saying all these college jobs out there that people think
Speaker 1: are going to somebody else, wat, Well, the NFL scoreboards
Speaker 1: don't really like Matt Rule, So it's sort of it's
Speaker 1: kind of mutual. It's interesting confus. I'm taking Carolina largely
Speaker 1: because of that's that with the with the Falcons, I
Speaker 1: think Carolina. You know, look, they almost beat they should
Speaker 1: have beaten Minnesota, and that should have beaten but they
Speaker 1: almost beat Minnesota. Minnesota let them back in the game
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. I think Carolina is a
Speaker 1: better football team, and I'm gonna take Carolina here on
Speaker 1: the road catching points. I thought you would tease them.
Speaker 1: Maybe you'll tease them as well. Maybe I will. We'll see,
Speaker 1: uh Todd number two. By the way, do you guys
Speaker 1: disagree with me that you don't like it when the
Speaker 1: world leagues into sports or am I just totally all
Speaker 1: or sports League saidto the world, which is way, which
Speaker 1: is I don't want either of it. I'm watching sports
Speaker 1: to get away from the world. I don't want it
Speaker 1: in the I don't know. I just it just drives
Speaker 1: me crazy. Trumble will only go to the games in Atlanta.
Speaker 1: You know that is that is um That is right
Speaker 1: wing America's biggest trouble with ESPN right for they believe
Speaker 1: ESPN to be ejecting politics too much into it. By
Speaker 1: the way, I I would be aligned more with ESPN politically,
Speaker 1: and I would understand that position, So I I see
Speaker 1: what you do. Think the question to Tomlin was inherently
Speaker 1: racist about being interested in usc No. But why why
Speaker 1: why did you go to racism or for that question?
Speaker 1: Because the three different ESPN commentators have said it's an
Speaker 1: inherently racist question because they never asked the white coaches
Speaker 1: that question. That's why I went there, and you mentioned ESPN.
Speaker 1: I think that I think that you could listen. I
Speaker 1: actually think Mike Tomlin is correct for being that piste
Speaker 1: off about it because I don't think you asked Sean
Speaker 1: Payton or Andy Reid those questions whether it was racist.
Speaker 1: Maybe you can make that claim. I didn't necessarily Carson
Speaker 1: Palmer kept linking him to the job that I mean,
Speaker 1: that's the genesis of the question. I think if you
Speaker 1: go back and you and you listen to what the
Speaker 1: guy actually asked. The guy asked him very reasonable questions.
Speaker 1: He jumped down his throat, but the guy was like, hey,
Speaker 1: you said you know this. We heard this, and Mike
Speaker 1: Tomlin just went nuts on him. Anyway, it's Mike Tomla
Speaker 1: lives three blocks from here. He's not going in. It's
Speaker 1: the most stable job in pro sports. Why would he leave?
Speaker 1: He's not He's not elite, but he's definitely very good.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Beautiful in the Winner, exactly where are you? Where
Speaker 1: are you? Eric? I live in Cincinnati, Ohio. Okay, so
Speaker 1: you got anything, beautiful? U turn number two, Todd. We
Speaker 1: gotta run comber three. Number three, number three, Todd, Yes,
Speaker 1: number three. Okay, I'm gonna go with one more under
Speaker 1: here in the Philadelphia Eagles against the Lions under forty eight.
Speaker 1: I think this is too high. Uh. If you've watched
Speaker 1: any of the Detroit football team, they tend to be competitive,
Speaker 1: but it's because they're playing well defensively, not really scoring
Speaker 1: a lot um. If you look at their their scores,
Speaker 1: they get a lot of these sixteen point games. Uh,
Speaker 1: and they run the ball a lot I am not um.
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts. You know, he may turn out to be
Speaker 1: a good quarterback. For right now, he is not a
Speaker 1: good quarterback. So I don't like what I see um
Speaker 1: from Philadelphia. On the positive offensive side, I mean, they
Speaker 1: haven't really done anything. Oh, you're the only per team.
Speaker 1: They scored thirty points against wass Kansas City, and you
Speaker 1: can throw that out. Every other game they get twenty one,
Speaker 1: twenty two, twenty one. There's nothing special on offense, and
Speaker 1: Detroit gets seventeen every week seventeen seventeen, fourteen, seventeen. They
Speaker 1: can't get into the twenties. The Lions they run the ball,
Speaker 1: they dink it off to Swift and and they play
Speaker 1: decent defense to keep them hanging around. So to me,
Speaker 1: this seems like a defensive game. I don't understand why
Speaker 1: it's forty eight. I just think that's just a crazy
Speaker 1: high number. I mean, Detroit hasn't gotten to Detroit only
Speaker 1: got over twenty points this year one time, and that
Speaker 1: was a phony, faghazy situation in the first game of
Speaker 1: the year where they got the on sides kick and
Speaker 1: all those late scores against San Francisco. Other than that,
Speaker 1: Detroit can't get more than seventeen points in a game,
Speaker 1: so I don't know how you're getting that a little
Speaker 1: bit like Reilly is like the ultimate slump buster defense.
Speaker 1: They they don't stunt, they don't blitz, they don't play,
Speaker 1: they don't play man coverage, they don't disguise coverages. They're
Speaker 1: like the easiest defense to operate against. And look there
Speaker 1: a car like at a perfect game last week, Like
Speaker 1: I don't think God's gonna be amazing, but I do.
Speaker 1: And then the the sneaky one for your bet, Todd,
Speaker 1: and I agree with you generally, like I think if
Speaker 1: there was no such thing as garbage time, this is
Speaker 1: the perfect bet. A half of Jalen hurts. His production
Speaker 1: is in the fourth quarter. So like you could see
Speaker 1: a game where Detroit is plucky and has like a seventeen,
Speaker 1: you know, ten lead and Jalen hurts, you know, they
Speaker 1: go back and forth and score twenty four points the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter and you're really irritated that I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: bet any of this pre game anyways, I'm an in
Speaker 1: game better. But my point is, if I have to
Speaker 1: take a game, you know, pre game, I'm taking this
Speaker 1: under because by the way, Philadelphia's defense. They only gave
Speaker 1: up eighteen to Carolina. Yeah, granted, they gave up points
Speaker 1: to Tampa Bay. They give up points to Vegas, they
Speaker 1: give up points to Kansas City Dallas. But those are
Speaker 1: good offensive teams. You know San Francisco when he got
Speaker 1: seventeen on them. So I don't see why they can't
Speaker 1: hang in and only give up. Let's say they give up.
Speaker 1: I win anyways, So I'm going under under forty. So, Todd,
Speaker 1: what you're saying is, like Michael Lombardi, you're posting a
Speaker 1: non betting record. What does that mean? Well, you said
Speaker 1: you don't bet any of these things pre flop. You're
Speaker 1: giving out three pre flop picks and then telling you
Speaker 1: what your record is in the pre flop. You're giving
Speaker 1: out a non betting record. Oh no, No. What what
Speaker 1: I'm saying is, I will typically I'll be leaning one
Speaker 1: second fair fair fair point by Mikey. My My point,
Speaker 1: Mikey is typically I don't bet the game. Before the game,
Speaker 1: I'll be leaning this way and then if it if
Speaker 1: it's going the way I like it, then I'll be
Speaker 1: jumping in on the end game. Last week, I didn't
Speaker 1: play the Arizona game pre game. But you know, I
Speaker 1: always tell people, if they're gonna give you the half
Speaker 1: of the answer key, why not take half of the
Speaker 1: answer key before you make your bet. Gilly will tell you.
Speaker 1: The smart way to bet NFL games is in game. Gilly,
Speaker 1: please tell them smart way to bet NFL there really is.
Speaker 1: What are the Jets getting? Um odd? I know? Man?
Speaker 1: Oh god, the New York Jets. The New York Jets
Speaker 1: are getting a lot of points. There's a tremendous winnibag Jets. Well,
Speaker 1: they have Wilson is in goal. They're ten and a half.
Speaker 1: I have I'm a late ten and a half with
Speaker 1: the Bengals. Wow, tough to do an unfamiliar role. But listen,
Speaker 1: this is a good defensive team. The story is out
Speaker 1: Oh they hooked up Chase with Borrow. The story is
Speaker 1: their defense is decent. Their defense. You have to work
Speaker 1: to score points on this team. And the Jets no quarterback,
Speaker 1: a small team there. Things aren't going well for Salat
Speaker 1: in this first year. I think the Bengals now have
Speaker 1: a clear path here. They're a very dangerous team in
Speaker 1: the a f C. All of a sudden, I don't
Speaker 1: like to lay these kind of points. I don't like
Speaker 1: nothing else on the board by other consideration, will be
Speaker 1: lay that the points with the Rams. Actually this week
Speaker 1: against I thought about give me the Bengals. I thought
Speaker 1: I thought about having Cincinnati's one of my three. Mike.
Speaker 1: Another thing, when I texted you last week, and I
Speaker 1: would love to hear what Eric says about this. Remember
Speaker 1: when I in like the early in the second quarter
Speaker 1: of the Seattle game, Seattle was averaging seven point two
Speaker 1: yard per play because they had an eighty five yard
Speaker 1: ridiculous touchdown to Metcalf. The rest of the plays they
Speaker 1: had like two yards of play, So I knew Seattle
Speaker 1: wasn't scoring. I took team total under there and I
Speaker 1: won the bet. But if you would have gone by
Speaker 1: the stats, you so they're averaging seven yards of play,
Speaker 1: they're doing great. Eric, What do you think about that
Speaker 1: when when the when the stats kind of get corrupted
Speaker 1: like that, What are your feelings on that? Well, I
Speaker 1: would hope that there's a little bit of So like
Speaker 1: in our in game stuff, we have what's called success rate,
Speaker 1: and we have what's called expected points. So like a
Speaker 1: play like that's gonna have a lot of expected points
Speaker 1: but from a success rate standpoint, it's boolean right like
Speaker 1: at zero one. So essentially like you emerge those two
Speaker 1: together to deal with that kind of noise. Um. I
Speaker 1: took Seattle pre under nineteen and a half pre games,
Speaker 1: so like I was on the same side as you
Speaker 1: the whole time, and that first play just kind of
Speaker 1: like like could spook me a little bit. But when
Speaker 1: you watch that offense, they're not scoring any points, even
Speaker 1: though Gino Smith is the cover king at two and
Speaker 1: oh a t s so far as a starter. But
Speaker 1: but that's my point. That's my point is is you
Speaker 1: can look at that and go, oh wow, they've got
Speaker 1: all these yards, but it's bullshit because they got one player.
Speaker 1: I don't think in game stuff. I don't think people
Speaker 1: are betting yards per play anymore like I'd be I'd
Speaker 1: be surprised if people with in game models are betting
Speaker 1: yards for play. I think it's a little bit more
Speaker 1: sophisticated than that. But you're right, I think I think intuition.
Speaker 1: If somebody just turned the game on and was like,
Speaker 1: oh my goodness, what's happening and they bet over reflexively,
Speaker 1: obviously they're paying the juice and more to the sports book.
Speaker 1: In that case, Eric, did you give a third pick?
Speaker 1: I didn't. I'm gonna go and I was trying to
Speaker 1: choose between Titans plus one and a half and what
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pick, which is the over in the Chargers
Speaker 1: New England Patriots game styles make fights, and the Los
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers are engineered to beat the Chiefs. They play
Speaker 1: six in the box, they play six in the secondary,
Speaker 1: uh most of the time. And um, you know they're
Speaker 1: their linebackers are safeties. Kenneth Murray's out, Um, And so
Speaker 1: I think New England's gonna have some success on the
Speaker 1: ground with their group of running backs. Um. It's also
Speaker 1: interesting if you actually like look at this, like Herbert's
Speaker 1: been great, a hundred six passer rating when clean, seventy
Speaker 1: four passer rating when pressure. Matt Jones is one passer
Speaker 1: rating when pressured, seventy three passer rating win clean. Matt
Speaker 1: Jones has been the best of the rookie quarterbacks. Kendrick Bourne,
Speaker 1: who I know has a little bit of a shoulder
Speaker 1: injured Jacobe Myers. The two tight ends they signed this
Speaker 1: past offseason have been slow to go, but they've been
Speaker 1: pretty good the last few weeks. So give me New England,
Speaker 1: you know, to put up enough points um to keep
Speaker 1: this game, to keep this game interesting, and for Justin Herbert.
Speaker 1: Anytime I have a quarterback who can get me seventy
Speaker 1: yards in one play reliably, I'm gonna bet over in
Speaker 1: his games. I had a debate who but oh, go ahead, Eric,
Speaker 1: you mentioned earlier the top or the lowest five yards
Speaker 1: per target on early downs in the first three quarters
Speaker 1: of games, and you said four of these guys should
Speaker 1: be backups and one's a real starter. Is Roethlisberger or
Speaker 1: Cousins the real starter out of that group? Hey? The
Speaker 1: way better quarterback? Big? Okay, I just want to clarify, Hey,
Speaker 1: you know what Big Roethlisberger should change his nickname to.
Speaker 1: Has Ben Roethlisberger shot straight to the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 1: But man, the longer he plays, the more you're like,
Speaker 1: who would you Who would you rather have at quarterback
Speaker 1: for your team? This is a mall and I had
Speaker 1: this disagreement on air this week. Kirk Cousins or Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield currently currently at price if you just had to
Speaker 1: choose between the two, not at Kirk Cousins, but I
Speaker 1: believe much money I get you, but um all thinks
Speaker 1: that it's the other way. Baker is a better quarterback. No,
Speaker 1: got a lot shot, got a lot to proof. Still
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield versus Kirk Cousins. Yeah, are you on the Mayfield.
Speaker 1: I'll take Baker Mayfield. I can't stand Kirk Cousins. I
Speaker 1: don't care what you say about their You love her Cousins.
Speaker 1: You've always loved Kirk, love him you last. Remember when
Speaker 1: when we when we were when Gil was in the
Speaker 1: hospital and we had that show and you said, Kirk Cousins,
Speaker 1: I said, the Vikings at twelve to one could win
Speaker 1: the NFC, And you just tore me apart for Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: And and what happened. They didn't win. Cousins had at
Speaker 1: one of the biggest mistakes in Vikings history. But he's
Speaker 1: one of the better quarterbacks in Vikings history. It shows
Speaker 1: you how how hard it is to get quarterback right. Yes,
Speaker 1: as Washington just kept in Washington, Kirk kirk Cousins bet
Speaker 1: on himself, kept doing the one year deals with Washington. Finally,
Speaker 1: because they didn't want to give him a long term deal. Finally,
Speaker 1: the Vikings were three years, eighty four million, dollars, and
Speaker 1: everybody in d C was like, see you, buddy. They
Speaker 1: were they were chasing the case Keenom performance here, the
Speaker 1: seventeen case Keendom thing, and and like they gave him
Speaker 1: a three year deal because they figured, oh, Kirk will
Speaker 1: be better over a three year ark than case Keenum
Speaker 1: will be. But like they were trying to replace that
Speaker 1: production from seventeen. You were going to replace that production
Speaker 1: that was an amazing thing with the Washington football team. Now,
Speaker 1: the Washington football team signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to win more
Speaker 1: games in their twenties schedule that included no good quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: And the problem is the schedule had a bunch of
Speaker 1: great quarterbacks in it, so their defense is gonna be
Speaker 1: as good. The Vikings signed Kirk Cousins to try to
Speaker 1: win the seventeen Super Bowl again. Yes, and it's not
Speaker 1: how it works, not how players get worse and worse.
Speaker 1: It was a bad signing, you know, and no worse
Speaker 1: fealing than having Kirk Cousins or Philip Rivers needing to
Speaker 1: get you a late score and you have the bat.
Speaker 1: You can't feel anywhere. He's done it this year, though, Man,
Speaker 1: he's done it this year. Cover time Rivers just doesn't
Speaker 1: get in on eight cracks from the two and Cousins
Speaker 1: will throw the interception in the end zone. By the way,
Speaker 1: Jared Golf, you try watching him win a football game.
Speaker 1: It is the most Oh my god, having having survivor
Speaker 1: last week with the Patriots and then rooting against the
Speaker 1: riding against the Rams, Jared Golf was miserable. Doesn't do
Speaker 1: Isn't this just really flatter McVeigh where he took that
Speaker 1: team with Golf? It kind of does that to me.
Speaker 1: It does, by the way. The last thing about the
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins thing, it also is a commentary on how
Speaker 1: you can only win a Super Bowl with a Hall
Speaker 1: of Fame quarterback or a guy at a rookie deal.
Speaker 1: And so this weird economic structure they have in the
Speaker 1: NFL where you get to a point where you've played
Speaker 1: good enough right for for certain chunky years, but you're
Speaker 1: not Hall of Fame and now you're off your rookie contract.
Speaker 1: It's such a fucked up thing for teams to have
Speaker 1: to make that financial commitment at that middle class quarterback. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's right, there's no middle well said, there's no middle
Speaker 1: class contract. By the way, my last one was a
Speaker 1: choice between the Titans the Bengals laying the points or
Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars catching points against the Seahawks. I'm going
Speaker 1: with the ugliest one of all of them. I'm going
Speaker 1: with Jacksonville and is largely just a fate of Pete Carroll.
Speaker 1: That display the other night was David Shaw ask against
Speaker 1: Michigan State in that board the quarterback, I don't care
Speaker 1: that it was Geno Smith. At some point you have
Speaker 1: to trust your quarterback to do something. You cannot just
Speaker 1: keep running the We must establish the run. Good lord.
Speaker 1: That was horrific to watch, and I listen best playing
Speaker 1: all they could have done do what the Colts did
Speaker 1: the other night in the atmospheric River. Just throw it
Speaker 1: up and have a San Francisco defensive back run into
Speaker 1: a wide out. Whatever it is, but that was what
Speaker 1: they were doing. I actually think Jacksonville, because Urban Meyer
Speaker 1: finally discovered James Robinson's part of the team a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, I think they go in and at
Speaker 1: the very least up catching three in a hook here, right,
Speaker 1: I get the hook. I think Jacksonville covers this game.
Speaker 1: I think maybe they even win it. By the way,
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy on Dak Prescott quote, there's no timeline on
Speaker 1: when we're going to make a decision. I think you
Speaker 1: take in the full week, so there is some possibility
Speaker 1: Dak won't be there. Interesting. Interesting, Um, I'm taking Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: That's my third. So I have a poop poop ladder
Speaker 1: of picks. I have San Francisco, Carolina and Jacksonville. God,
Speaker 1: you'll probably go three and probably go three. And who's
Speaker 1: your Are you giving out your survivor picker? Not till tomorrow.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out mine. This will be the last week.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna end up with Kansas City because of the
Speaker 1: four big favorites, I've already used Cincinnati, Buffalo has a
Speaker 1: Christmas consider ration, and so it comes down to the
Speaker 1: Rams versus Kansas City. Kansas City, this is the last
Speaker 1: real shot to use them because everything else after this
Speaker 1: is going to be even dicier. The Rams there is
Speaker 1: another opportunity. I think they hosted the Jaguars, so listen,
Speaker 1: I get it. They're a double digit home favorite in
Speaker 1: a standalone game, and I'm terrified, but I have to
Speaker 1: play them. I'm playing Kansas cityd what's your teaser. I
Speaker 1: got two minutes teaser legs. Todd Todd to Tea, it's
Speaker 1: really tough this week to come up with a good teaser. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead. Let's go before me. I'll take
Speaker 1: the cold I mean, I'll take Tennessee Titans plus seven
Speaker 1: and a half. Right, So that's the obvious one, Tennessee
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half, and then I need another leg.
Speaker 1: Why don't you give your as well? I think of
Speaker 1: my second leg, because you can already have Tennessee. I
Speaker 1: have Tennessee as well. I have Arizona in Tennessee. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: so Tenny. It seems to be the obvious one, right,
Speaker 1: no other one? Are you actually going through any key numbers?
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe Minnesota? Real? Yeah, Minnesota would be a wall
Speaker 1: teaser leg Minnesota. I don't want Minnesota. They I can't
Speaker 1: take care of Kirk Cousins. I have a I have
Speaker 1: a rule. I don't bet Philip Rivers. I don't bet
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. What you say, Eric would Cousins No less,
Speaker 1: that's right, it's supersized Kurt Cousins. I'm gonna take I
Speaker 1: know it's not gonna be mathematically correct, but I'm going
Speaker 1: to take the Chargers as my second leg, even though
Speaker 1: you know I'm not really getting the full amount of points.
Speaker 1: But that's because I don't want to take I don't
Speaker 1: want to take Arizona because I could see Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: pulling something out of his ass. So you know, give
Speaker 1: me the uh, that would be the Chargers down to
Speaker 1: plus one. So give me the Chargers plus one with
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus seven and a half, and I think you
Speaker 1: guys have a chance to actually pick games on me
Speaker 1: on this desert. I don't feel great. I'm the man
Speaker 1: to beat Mike. What you got to take? Titans obviously
Speaker 1: seven and a half, and I'll I'll take the Cardinals
Speaker 1: down tonight, alright, So you you, you and me have
Speaker 1: the same Eric, We're so rude. We did Eric Cars Cardinals,
Speaker 1: Titans also, okay? And then final two questions which we
Speaker 1: ask every week on the megapod forever one the big favorite,
Speaker 1: most likely to lose out right, So it's all the
Speaker 1: four double digit favorites that we just mentioned. Cincinnati at
Speaker 1: the Jets, the Rams at Houston, Kansas City hosting the Giants,
Speaker 1: and of course, uh, what did I forget of the
Speaker 1: four Chief No already said that one Chief Buffalo, thank
Speaker 1: you Buffalo hosting Miami. Any of those and I guess
Speaker 1: if I I shouldn't include any of the six and
Speaker 1: a house because those were the obvious ones. So the
Speaker 1: big of those big four favorites, Eric, if I came
Speaker 1: to you from the future and I said one of
Speaker 1: them lost out right, which would it have been? Uh? Um? Giants?
Speaker 1: Giants win against Kansas? Me too. I'm sorry for your survivor,
Speaker 1: but I think that's the most I would say the
Speaker 1: same thing, Todd, Kansas City. Are we counting the Green
Speaker 1: Bay game? Do you pay attention? I was doing the
Speaker 1: the the what's the code? Um? I would I guess
Speaker 1: I'm going with yeah. I guess the Giants could be
Speaker 1: Kansay they're not going to though, alright the Kansas Last question,
Speaker 1: we live in a bizarro world. You must pick a side,
Speaker 1: you must bet a side on every single game, except
Speaker 1: for one game you will take a pass on. Eric.
Speaker 1: What's the game you take a pass on? Uh? Great question? Um, Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: des Philadelphia, Detroit, Mikey, Steelers, Browns. Todd. I don't like
Speaker 1: Steelers Browns either. I don't know what I'm getting a Keenum.
Speaker 1: I will take uh Philadelphia Detroit, Philadelphia, Detroit for sure.
Speaker 1: Thank you guys, appreciate Mike. He's gotta go do odds
Speaker 1: On so he's out of here. Mike palm everybody. Todd,
Speaker 1: thank you Eric. Do you do college football just pro
Speaker 1: football college to Yep, you do college. Did you see
Speaker 1: that Wake Forest Army game last week? Yeah? I had weight,
Speaker 1: but I also had under Oh you had under Yeah,
Speaker 1: because that was when I wanted was going to ask
Speaker 1: you about these runaway college games. Todd, since we haven't
Speaker 1: finished the podcast yet, why don't we finish the podcast
Speaker 1: and then you could ask him about already finished you
Speaker 1: already Shout out to Max Freed and Alex Bregman, the
Speaker 1: first Tribesman on Tribesman World Series event last night. Fabulous
Speaker 1: moments for some of us, Yes, I don't know, fabulous
Speaker 1: moment for some of us. It's a big historic Thank
Speaker 1: you for listening to the megapod. Good luck with all
Speaker 1: your week at eight bet. I can't even say it.
Speaker 1: All your week eight bets in the National Football League.
Speaker 1: Good luck from all of us at the Megapod. Now
Speaker 1: you can ask your question that don bot t ta
Speaker 1: battle w t Baton Book,