WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 8 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.319 Check it on Man No Down Thursday morning, October. The 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:17.360 Beating of the Book Podcast Week number eight. Wow, Kimball, 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:19.960 he was a week eight National Football League Live from 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.720 the d R home. At least for me and Mikey anyway, 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:24.880 Gil Alexander, it is the beating the Book of megapod 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:27.280 to my left, the staples of the show. First of all, 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:30.400 to my left, Mike Palm, Derek Stephen's conciliary here at 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:34.159 Circuits Sports, vice president of Operations, co host of odds 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:36.199 on that he does with a mall Shaw. Do you 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:37.320 think we can get a mall on the show a 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:43.400 little later this year as well? See what he says. Okay, um, 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:45.080 thank you for being here as always. I know you 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:47.040 had your booster shots. So you're not feeling very well 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:51.280 A little bit. That's sick, but pain pain from the 0:00:51.320 --> 0:00:53.519 shot in the arm and that side and then chills 0:00:53.920 --> 0:00:56.760 I've been taking to my book, prof and so but uh, 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:58.800 you know, I get macdair and I had the first 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:00.840 two shots for mcdair and I and they said Madern 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:04.040 is the strongest and longest last team. Yeah, of the 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:06.520 vaccine and how you call it as your booster MADERNA 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:08.680 to Maderna to the guy that gave me the shot, 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:12.000 actually said if people had the Johnson and Johnson one shot, 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:13.959 he was advising them to get the Modern and Booster. 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:18.080 Oh wow, so J J. Jacob I messed it up. Yeah, yeah, 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:21.000 Todd wishing it from his mom's cork addict, his mom's 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:24.240 cork addict, star of the Showtime docuseries Action for a 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:27.040 few years back. How you doing, Totty? You good? I'm 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:30.679 doing great. You know. I went to a DraftKings dinner 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:34.119 last night and met some people that were fans of yours, 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:37.960 so you know, obviously they had some poor judgment, but um, 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:43.039 they do like you, and uh, thank you, thank you. 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:49.760 They really like you, they said, Mikey, is you know mediocre? Wow? Well, 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:51.680 how are you going to compare someone with no media 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:57.760 training to somebody that's been thirty five years? You're fantastic years. 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:01.040 You were my favorite radio per sonality from the state 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:05.280 of Iowa. I'm being serious because I don't know Eric, 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:07.480 So I mean, we can't joke around like we normally 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:09.360 do till we get the cadence of the show. First 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:11.560 time on the podcast. I should mention that to Eric 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:15.920 that the best line I've ever shot. Aaron shot about 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:18.640 five six minutes into the podcast. By the way, Eric 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:20.959 Eager from Pro Football Focus Data Science his research to 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:23.280 day aside his doctor Eric Eager. By the way, Uh, 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:25.280 kind enough to join us on the show. Eric, great 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:26.959 to have you. I appreciate it. I just want to 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:29.160 know Aaron shots like six minutes into this podcast. He's 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:30.960 been on the numbers game, he's been on my other stuff, 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.120 but when he was on the policy goes, I'm gonna 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:34.840 it's gonna take me a second to get used to 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:37.600 the rhythm of this ship. She said. Kate, Oh, I 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:41.200 thought he said. He did say the word Eric. Thanks 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:44.200 for doing it, man. I appreciate it. As somebody who 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:48.639 knows Aaron personally, I am not surprised at all that 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:52.520 that is a classic line for him. He and I 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:55.160 were on panels together where you know he was very 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:59.960 much the the disheveled scientist and uh and sort of 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.680 yeah he let's just say he dictated cadence. Yeah, I 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:05.640 I will tell you this, and Aaron is I'm on 0:03:05.680 --> 0:03:07.040 aeron side on this. So we used to go to 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:09.440 M I T. Sloan Sports and Analytics Conference for years. 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:11.600 I don't know if you ever went eric Um, but 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:14.120 we Aaron used to be on panels, like when they 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:16.960 started football pro football panels, Aaron was up there. Now 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:18.960 they like don't even ask him to be on sometimes, 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:20.720 Like I don't know if it was this year of 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:22.079 the last year. I haven't been the last two years 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.960 because it's because he said the Patriots defense last year 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:28.480 was one of the defenses in this year the National 0:03:28.520 --> 0:03:33.560 Football it was remember that? Uh he I tell you. 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:35.120 There's one thing that Aaron said last year that I 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:37.720 remember really well, and it's aged very well, which is 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:41.080 I had the audacity to say the Chiefs they sort 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:42.920 of seemed to play up and down to their competition 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.080 this year, and Aaron goes, maybe, he goes, whoa whoa 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:47.480 bo he goes, maybe they're just not as good as 0:03:47.480 --> 0:03:49.760 we think they are. That has aged pretty well, I 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:52.200 will say that. So that's the that's the one shots 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:54.240 from Mark he made last year that that I remember 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:57.320 quite well. Todd Harry Reasoners from Iowa. You'd like to 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:00.800 be better than Harry Reasoner. It's a clothe it's very tight, 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:02.840 it's very it's very I wouldn't want to live on 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:05.480 the difference. Wasn't It wasn't Harry because he was he 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:08.000 was on a weekly Sunday at sixty minute show, whereas 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:09.560 you're in the daily. So I had to give you 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:11.480 the nine. Wasn't Harry reason or the guy that Barbara 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:14.400 Walters complaint was so sexist towards her when she was 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:17.040 coming at a lot of complaints later on after he retired. 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:19.000 In that about he wouldn't have worked in this, Oh 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:21.880 not at all. Not at Morley would have been okay, 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:25.080 not Harry Morley. I didn't think we'd go down the 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:26.719 sixty minutes row. By the way, you know it's gonna 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:29.960 be on the megapod two weeks from now, Brent Musburger 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:34.799 making his return. I got I got it. This is exciting, 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:37.239 this is exciting. We have looked back then, Amy Coney, 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:47.280 Barrett's tenure brand pre game in the in the NFL today, 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.679 Remember that time you were so entertaining Brent, And remember 0:04:50.720 --> 0:04:52.840 that time. Tell me about that time, by the way, 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:55.560 before you answer, you're such a great guy. You're amazing. 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:59.040 Mikey and Brent went on their own little fucking tangent. 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:03.280 Excuse pardon me. We're happy to have back. I'm sure 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:05.240 he's thrilled he's gonna be in here. I think with us. 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:08.640 That's the world. I think so, I think so um 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.160 And he went politics right for the beginning, which was funny. 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:13.840 All right, Uh, let us begin before we get into 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:17.880 best bets and teasers and Survivor and all that stuff. Mikey, 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:21.800 you have a great story here, so circum millions. How 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:24.880 many people have Circus Survivor? How many people didn't submit Survivor? 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.480 Only two, only the best week of the year, and 0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:30.640 only the Braven's really got people again, fewer than a 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:33.920 hundred people losing Survivor. But there was a dude in millions. 0:05:33.960 --> 0:05:36.080 Can you tell this story? I can tell it. I 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:38.599 mean the guys was one of the five way split 0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:40.680 eighteen and two the first quarter. He was in second 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:43.640 place at twenty five and five, and he didn't submit 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:47.560 his picks this week. Oh my god, how do you not? 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:51.440 How how does that happen? He said? He forgot. He 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:54.640 texted Jeff Benson and said, you know anything you can 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:57.680 do sometime before four in that hour? I just three 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:00.520 o'clock is the deadline? Yea? And they answer is no, 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:04.440 there's the answer in the system. No, you can't even 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:06.599 go in and put it's impossible. But you know that 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:09.680 we got flooded with emails and calls after four when 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:11.960 you know we post the website, all the people saying, 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:14.440 what's the mistake? What's his picks? They wanted to know this. 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:16.359 It's not listed his picks. We need to know his picks. 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:19.640 Sure you didn't turn any in people flabber guests. God, 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:23.240 I wonder if a guy like that now secretly hopes 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:25.000 he just sucks the rest of the way. You know, 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:27.200 people have their feeling about the proxies and that, but 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:29.400 Derek has said all along, even if you're a local, 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:31.640 pay the three hundred dollars, you're gonna get the text 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:33.680 from the proxy right at ten am or whatever time 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:35.560 they submit and say, hey, what are your picks? If 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:37.560 you do forget, you get a lot of reminders from 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:42.440 the That's crazy. I mean, that's also crazy like you 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:45.039 to be doing so well that other people are in 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:48.359 we gate already rooting against you or just curious what 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:51.840 you pick, like you see if they're on the right 0:06:51.880 --> 0:06:54.720 side or not. Al Right, before we get started, do 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:57.719 you want to take some congratulations for actually a winning week? 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:00.200 Can we talk about survivor I want to. And I 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:02.719 asked this question to you guys. He couldn't. He couldn't 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:04.760 wait to us, he couldn't wait to unleash that line. 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:08.120 He's waiting all week. It's okay, it's okay. But I 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:10.960 thought that there was something very interesting this week, and 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:13.680 over five hundred people took the Cardinals. I was shocked 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:15.400 by I was shocked by that too, because they are 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:18.360 a Christmas consideration. And even if you argue maybe the 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:20.760 Titans now look like to play over the forty niners 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:23.360 on that Thursday before, don't just still need like two 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:27.080 viable teams on the Thanksgiving and Christmas from in quarterback injury. 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:30.320 Whatever I think you do, I think you do. But yeah, 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:32.680 six hundred people did not care about that. Tells me 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:35.400 it's you know, we'll cross that bridge when we come 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:37.240 to it. Thinking for a lot of people, there are 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:40.720 still many more people still live in Circus Survivor than 0:07:40.960 --> 0:07:47.680 started Circus Survivor last year. Wow, all right, Todd, Okay, 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:49.520 before we get to the pics, go ahead. What was 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:53.040 our records last week? Deserves a round of applause, an 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:56.040 absolute round of A plus. The Gilly had the Atriots 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:59.240 minus seven. I believe. They won by five points. Believe, 0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:02.560 so text almost thought there for him, although they did 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:05.000 get there. My I had a ten point teaser with 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:06.960 the Texans plus twenty eight, and I got there, but 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:10.600 the plus seven didn't. Bengals plus six was a fantastic pick. 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:12.520 So he goes two and one to move to a 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:16.960 robust seven and four Arizona up to twenty eight. What 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:19.600 kind of sick oh are you? I didn't know ten 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:23.280 point teaser idea of these three team tender teasers, so 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.720 I moved. I took a all crap team teaser and 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:29.280 it got there. Was plus twenty eight plus twenty six 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:33.040 on the Lions and plus fourteen and a half on Seattle, 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:35.040 and it was pretty easy. The only one that was 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:37.120 even in doubt at all was Arizona, and it wasn't 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:39.840 even really in doubt. Why do you think draft Kings 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:43.199 keeps inviting him the stuff? Exactly? By the way, keep 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:47.439 calling me the way those ten points are worth? Like, 0:08:49.880 --> 0:08:53.560 what are you doing? I disagree. I disagree because at 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:55.400 the end of the game, the teams that are up 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:58.040 big don't want to blow out. Look, I don't mind 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:02.079 if people call that content blowing the ship out. Of 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:05.439 the Jets, right, But that was that's Belichick against the Jets, 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:08.040 and he hates the Jets. The the that's a It's 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.320 a different thing when you get these these teams, like 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:12.800 you know, Arizona doesn't want to show anything when they're 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:16.360 out huge, they're just gonna, you know, coasting. Anyways. You 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.319 can call me dumb all everybody can just laugh. I'm 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:21.120 just I'm just want to know the thought process. But 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:23.160 that's that's a reasonable thought. I know a lot of 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:31.120 people think it's stupid, but when you're stupid, I'm being defensive, 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:35.200 both of you. Okay, it's not about Eric. I'm being defensive. Eric. 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:39.760 You called me an asshole, and I don't appreciate it. Asshole. 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:42.520 I'm trying to I'm trying to change the cad into 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:46.160 the show. That's right, He's already been warned and advanced. 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:50.120 Sometimes these ten point teasers, I'm I'm literally like eleven 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:51.960 and two and ten point teasers. Mike, you could tell 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:54.000 you like that. Two years ago, I was giving them 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:55.960 out and I've been doing them again this year and 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:58.360 they're fantastic. So I'll keep laughing all the way to 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:02.120 the bank. But you you have famously said, it's all 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:04.440 math in the end, right, And here's Eric, who is nothing, 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:06.959 you know who, who, if anything, loves math himself, right 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:09.000 and can give you the value of those points. So 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:12.320 you should appreciate that response. I think, oh, I think 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:15.000 mathematically he's probably correct. But I think there's also a 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:18.600 psychological component. I've seen too many NFL games where a 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:22.199 team is a huge dog and they barely get Whenever 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.440 the teams cover those huge lines, they barely do it. 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:28.719 They don't usually wipe the team out in my experience, 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.720 over a long period of time, Whenever there's some wacko 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:35.320 college looking spread in the NFL, the teams, if they 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:37.600 do cover it, they barely cover it. And I think 0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:40.360 it's because the better team, the better team late in 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.720 the game, doesn't care to win by more. I'm glad 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:49.560 you want man whatever. Anyways, like Gilly did win the teaser, 0:10:49.600 --> 0:10:51.559 we all want the teaser. Gilly moves to five, one 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:53.840 and one on the teaser. Mike, he's five and two 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:55.679 on the teaser and I am in first place with 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:57.320 six and one on the man to beat on the 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.680 teasers on the spreads, Well, actually you're an but okay, 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:04.680 good try Mikey. Mikey was one in two last week 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:07.240 with his Bears plus twelve and a half almost got 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:09.680 their very close game there, Mikey, you were right in 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:12.439 it all the way. I believe they lost five hundred 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:16.040 three Bengals Ravens under not a chance and he did 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:18.240 win with the Browns two. I just want I want 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:20.400 to say one thing, because I never have ever challenged Michael. 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:24.800 I think that Bears pick was your most peculiar pick ever. Yeah, 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:26.760 it was bad. I should have been on no hyperpolet 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:30.439 myself from and even Carols laughed at it on Friday. 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:34.000 And I can't believe Mike Palm I was such a 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:37.800 bad match. I misread the game and I went but 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:40.440 Tampa they didn't even want to play in the second half. 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:43.839 They shut it totally down. Absolutely. I went one in 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:47.239 two to move to ten and eleven hit my Arizona 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:50.240 under lost the Miami under and the Kansas City Tennessee game. 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:52.960 I think that will go down as the strangest game 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:55.640 in NFL history that the Kansas City Chiefs only scored 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.800 three points against the Tennessee Titans defense. Please put that 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.760 in the mathematical data is and tell me what percentage 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:03.920 of time that will happen for the rest of history. 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:08.720 Dr eric I will say, as somebody who and I'm 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:12.880 a Kansas City fan, like I, I had Tennessee and 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:14.920 I had Under in that game, and I had under 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.280 because I thought that I thought they would be it 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:20.360 would slow down. But for different reasons, I thought the 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:22.040 Chiefs would try to slow the game down a little 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:24.640 bit to protect their defense. And like the I think 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:28.120 the craziest stat of the season so far that literally 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.440 no one knows is that the Chiefs for the second 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.600 straight game allowed zero second half points. And obviously it 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:36.320 was it was a pretty like, you know, weird way 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:39.040 to do it last week, but um you know that 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:45.000 the scoring three. Talk about them scoring three. Actually here's 0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:47.240 some inside football and actually I have, you know, as 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:50.000 a part of my job, I do like having interactions 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.320 with these teams. We climbed out to All thirty two 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.960 and one of one of the members of the team 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:57.960 that I'm really close with was like, Hey, can you 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.120 check out our r P O game? And I know 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.920 if anybody knows, like RPOs are basically like run plays 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:05.520 where you can pull the ball out of the stomach 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:07.120 of the running back and throw the ball to a 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:10.800 wide receiver, and on those plays linemen aren't allowed to 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:12.800 block up field because if you do pull the ball 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.520 out you throw the ball, you'll get an illegal man 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:19.600 down field penalty. And so the Chiefs have have run 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.440 the second highest rate of RPOs in the NFL, second 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:27.120 to Arizona, and they're bad at them, and most of 0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:30.400 the NFL is really good at them. And so the 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:32.440 thing is when the Chief's kind of half asked the 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.960 run game and the past game, trying to be deceptive, 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:38.640 they're bad at both. And interestingly, it's just because these 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:41.439 linebackers are like when they see Mahomes put the ball 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:44.080 in the stomach of the running back, the linebackers are saying, like, 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:46.200 come and get us. You know, Darryl Williams is not 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.160 about to get you know, We're not gonna get killed 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.280 by Darryl Williams. Will get killed by Mahomes instead. And 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:53.960 it's hurt the Chiefs offense. And if you've watched them 0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:56.640 that the Washington game, they scored thirty one points, but 0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:58.800 they were something like seven of seven or eight of 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:01.040 eight on third downs in the second half of that game. 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.480 The fact that they're getting to that many third downs 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.840 is problematic for their offense. And so, you know, the 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:09.680 Tennessee game was pretty simple. It was Tennessee took a 0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:12.240 long time to score. The Chiefs went three and out 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.480 or five and out or whatever it was. Tennessee took 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:17.760 a long time and scored. Chiefs went five and out, 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:20.760 and then they Tennessee went and scored. The Chiefs turned 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:22.680 the ball over. Like it's not like they had a 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.080 lot of offensive plays in the first half and we're 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.560 bad on all them. They like literally had like thirteen 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:30.040 plays in the first half, and you know that, and 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.880 that's how the Chiefs. They also got desperate. You can 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:35.720 feel that desperation in my homes. When he starts to 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.760 get down big, it feels like, you know, they're just 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:40.800 forcing it, you know what I mean, They're not taking 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:43.560 what's there. He looks like bad Aaron Rodgers. When Aaron 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:47.560 Rodgers was really struggling, you know, he's not. He hits 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:49.320 his back foot and the first thing he wants to 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:52.240 do is scramble and make a big play. When you 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:54.720 know that offense should be gaining seven eight yards at 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.360 a time, and instead he's trying to he's trying to 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:00.000 score fourteen points on every play, and and it's already 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.800 them a little bit. It was into desperation mode worse 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:07.880 when they're behind. The Chiefs are the Ravens. Oh yeah, ah, 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:11.600 the Ravens do it wait better, don't they? The Ravens 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:15.600 came back against Indie and in Kansas City and they 0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:17.560 and they stuck to their run game in both games, 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:21.160 like they actually like do the there there? I think 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:24.280 they come from behind a lot better just because it's 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:28.040 weird this season, at least they've they've stuck with their 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:31.560 base offense even with behind, and multiple scores against Kansas City, 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:35.000 against UH Indie, even against Detroit although they got late 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:37.560 lucked out with the field goal. Like, I think it's 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:40.360 them to two things. One, Jason and those guys back 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:42.040 there in the back, we've lost Mikey and I have 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:44.960 lost our video feed of Todd and UH and Eric. 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:46.600 If we could get that back on the screen, we'd 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.520 appreciate it. The other thing is, isn't it true also Eric, 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:54.640 that teams are blitzing Mahomes at a far lesser rate 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:58.000 this year and so like they've figured out that he's 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:00.160 really as a young player. He was like, super, we're 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:04.960 good against the blitz. Let's just stop with that. Even 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:08.720 teams that are traditional blitz teams like the Ravens, like 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:11.080 if you look at them, they blitz. They're in like 0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:13.480 the top five in blitz rates in the league. And 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:17.160 against Kansas City they blitz like zero times one time. Maybe, um, 0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:18.920 that was starting to happen at the end of last year. 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:21.680 But you're right. I mean the all these defenses are 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:24.040 engineered to beat the Chiefs. Now they're engineered to play 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:26.800 too high, six in the box. You know, beg a 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.640 team to run the football, but at worst begged them 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:31.800 to throw it fifteen times on the way of the 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.280 end zone. And it's a good numerical play, Like it's 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:37.640 hard to throw the ball fifteen times in a row 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:40.720 without making a mistake. So I think it's good on 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:42.840 the flip side. That's why you've seen teams like Tennessee 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:46.640 in Baltimore beat these teams, because a team that's engineered 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:48.960 to beat the Chiefs, by exclusion, is not engineered to 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.680 beat Derrick Henry and so like you, that's why you 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.800 see maybe a team like Tennessee at success against a 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:58.560 team like Buffalo, because you know Buffalo will will stack 0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:02.000 the box, but they don't have stacking players. They're engineered 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.119 to played nicol and din uh and and stop Kansas 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.160 City's offer last thing before we get the best best, 0:17:07.160 --> 0:17:08.520 because I know people want to hear the picks. But 0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:11.359 you said that the most interesting stat was that the 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:15.600 Chiefs held their opponents to zero points in consecutive second halves. 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:17.720 I will disagree with you. I will. I will say 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:20.960 that the most interesting stat of the entire week came 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:25.200 from you, Eric, which I got sort of second hand 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:28.720 on our show, which was it was such an unbelievable stat, 0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:32.040 Eric that I questioned it openly. I'm like, that can't 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:35.159 be true, and I looked it up you. It was 0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:39.320 your stat about Mike Shannon. Excuse me, Kyle Shanahan. You 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:42.760 know where I'm going with this, having a worst winning percentage, 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:44.439 a worst winning percentage of the head coach of the 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:48.040 Niners then Mike Singletary had as the head coach of 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:52.560 the Niners. That's unbelievable, unbelievable because we think of Singletary 0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:56.159 one way and Shannon completely differently. Yeah, I mean I 0:17:56.200 --> 0:18:00.200 remember Singletary having was too and oh in oh and 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:02.919 had Brett Farven the Vikings on the ropes um, and 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.800 they needed that miracle catch by Greg Lewis, like they 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:08.560 had some success with Shanahan in San Francisco, just went 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:11.280 all the hell because of you know him in many 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:14.159 ways Um and obviously hard I did great things with 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:16.840 that talent um after that, But yeah, I mean the 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:19.320 thing with Shanahan, and I got a lot of flak 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:21.040 for this in the off season because I I do 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:24.240 this as part of my betting analysis. I build a 0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:26.840 model for play callers, and I have two models, and 0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:29.520 one of them's uniqueness of scheme, and the other one 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:33.119 is how how well you do with the talent you have. 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:37.280 And Shanahan, if you actually look at the numbers, has 0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:42.760 not overperformed the talent that they have on the field UM. 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:44.720 And I think in a lot of ways you look 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:47.800 at that and you say, well, he doesn't actually pick 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:49.840 the talent well like they have Brandon. I you can 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.280 a first round draft pick who looked like Davante Adams 0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:56.000 at times last year, He's completely disappeared. They trade up 0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:59.399 for a trade sermon, and they prepared and they prefer 0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:02.040 Elijah Chill over him. They spend all this money on 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:06.320 on on Tevin Coleman and Rahi most who's an undrafted 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:09.120 like seven time cut guys the guy they end up with. Like, 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:12.840 I think Shanahan's interesting because he gets this premium. He 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:15.600 was third in Pinnacles betting odds for they were third 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:19.760 to win the Super Bowl after Kansas City and Tampa 0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:22.719 on like for months on Pinnacles betting odds to win 0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:25.320 the Super Bowl. Like, I think he sounds bad, but 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:27.600 I think he's one of the more overrated entities. And 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:30.520 all the football. Wow, it was terrible in the second 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:33.960 half of the Super Bowl. Horrendous, absolutely horrendous and second 0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:39.200 and twice twice twice, right, the Atlanta Falcons. Right, we'll 0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:41.680 always have twenty twelve with Kyle Shannahan and a great 0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:45.120 r G three, though we always have that. I'm interested 0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:48.639 to ask herek though you rank Matt la Fleur is 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:56.399 the number one offensive play caller? Yes, what's because he's not? 0:19:57.800 --> 0:20:00.239 Because because here's here's my thing with Matt Flour Like 0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:05.040 the Mike McCarthy offense with Rogers, I mean, Mike McCarthy 0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:07.320