Speaker 1: Tom check it on Man Now Down Now Wednesday morning,
Speaker 1: January two, twenty nineteen. It is the Beating the Book podcast.
Speaker 1: Wild Card Weekend, Kill Alexander four games. That's how it works.
Speaker 1: Wild Car Week should be a great week in the
Speaker 1: National Football League. It has always to help us to
Speaker 1: navigate the spreads, the totals, and whatever betting vehicles they'll
Speaker 1: be using. On my right from wager talk dot Com.
Speaker 1: Thirty nine years in the business, is that right? Marco D'Angelo,
Speaker 1: Good morning, Marco, Ama donna too. I was introducing Marco
Speaker 1: to our esteemed guest today as a prima donna, and
Speaker 1: uh that was completely accurate of me, if I if
Speaker 1: I may just say so, so, uh no, it's the
Speaker 1: one day of the year that I we had to
Speaker 1: rebook on a Wednesday, and so Marco has busy Wednesday.
Speaker 1: So apparently Marco has to get out of here at
Speaker 1: a certain time. On my left, out of the sports
Speaker 1: betting diaspora. Still looking for the Kansas City Chiefs to
Speaker 1: fall flat on their face. It's a alright, yeah, they've
Speaker 1: already fallen. Every time they stepped up in competition, they
Speaker 1: got slapped back down. I don't understand this say they
Speaker 1: three times they stepped up, all three times they got
Speaker 1: slapped New England Rams. May I remind you, I think
Speaker 1: you beat up on the Raiders a couple of times.
Speaker 1: You would look at that schedule that they've had come on.
Speaker 1: I granted now they have a road. Hopefully they make
Speaker 1: it to the super Bowl. So they run into the
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints or a team like that. We know
Speaker 1: what happens when they faced the elite. We've already seen
Speaker 1: it happened throughout the season. So please let's be our
Speaker 1: best behavior today. Gentlemen. It is a special show because
Speaker 1: today the winner of our year long score X Beating
Speaker 1: the Book podcast pool contest is on the show. Uh.
Speaker 1: He ended up with forty point one percent profit. Forty
Speaker 1: one percent profit went by the tag profitable, not spelled
Speaker 1: et but profitable, sort of a melding of profit and
Speaker 1: profit if you will, profit as in the seer and
Speaker 1: profit as in money being made. Beat His next closest competitor,
Speaker 1: Liam Converse, who we've interacted with on Twitter for many years.
Speaker 1: Liam Converse thirty five point nine percent, So quite a
Speaker 1: gap in the end between profitablest percent and Liam Conversus
Speaker 1: thirty five point nine percent. Shout out to Jay Bags
Speaker 1: or Jay Biggs. It is I don't know how you
Speaker 1: pronounced that. Thirty five point six percent. He thought he
Speaker 1: might be able to get the crown. Those are the
Speaker 1: top three tops left MeV kids, fourth and fifth, but
Speaker 1: it is profitable. His name is Gregg Deeter from Rochester,
Speaker 1: New York. And what's your Twitter? Greg Tweeter underscore Deeter
Speaker 1: one correct, Welcome to the show. Really appreciate you doing
Speaker 1: this in congratulations. Thanks seeing Marco a spill. Thanks for
Speaker 1: me on the show today. It is a huge pleasure.
Speaker 1: Big fan of the podcast, been listening for quite some time.
Speaker 1: I think it's the best sports scambling podcast out there.
Speaker 1: So really just throw down the opportunity to be here
Speaker 1: and talk about some wild card games with you guys.
Speaker 1: You're very kind to say that we appreciate it. Let
Speaker 1: me just ask you before we get into the games.
Speaker 1: Forty one percent profit. This is the stock market thing
Speaker 1: that I've been talking about for years on the show.
Speaker 1: What would you say if you could distill it into
Speaker 1: I don't know, just a brief sort of synopsis. What
Speaker 1: was your strategy? Was there any general strategy that you
Speaker 1: could even fall back on or was it just the
Speaker 1: fact that you ended up picking good teams to get
Speaker 1: in on and get out of at the right times. Uh? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean there were definitely a couple of things that
Speaker 1: I consistently reminded myself throughout the season to remain disciplines. Uh,
Speaker 1: basically looking at markets from a value standpoint, understanding that
Speaker 1: the one thing that we do know about the market
Speaker 1: is that this gonna fluctuate. And kind of maybe this
Speaker 1: is a markoism that I've learned over the years from
Speaker 1: following you guys. Are there no teams ever gonna look
Speaker 1: as good as they do with their best and no
Speaker 1: teams really as bad as they look at their worst
Speaker 1: unless you're talking about the Jaguars this year. But really
Speaker 1: just trying to make profitable trades rather than necessarily looking
Speaker 1: at it teams for the whole season, and kind of
Speaker 1: balancing the cash balance or the buying power with the
Speaker 1: amount of teams that I'm invested in so that I
Speaker 1: could be flexible. Marco, he won the score X podcast
Speaker 1: pool by employing some of your marco is ms. How
Speaker 1: does that make you feel? That makes me warm and
Speaker 1: fuzzy for sure, Mark Marco might even stick around for
Speaker 1: an extra five minutes because of that. Today, that's how
Speaker 1: good that feels. That's great. Um, were you worried at all? Greg?
Speaker 1: Towards the end, I noticed that with about three weeks left,
Speaker 1: two weeks left, your gap, your your margin in terms
Speaker 1: of the distance between you and the second place player,
Speaker 1: shrunk a little bit. Did you get worried at any
Speaker 1: point there? Yeah, it was a little worried. I felt
Speaker 1: the pressure coming, you know, when you were updating the
Speaker 1: standings weekly, So I felt a little pressure there. But
Speaker 1: actually with a few weeks left, I was moving a
Speaker 1: lot into cash, So I was selling out of a
Speaker 1: lot of my positions because this was the big prize here,
Speaker 1: getting on the podcast with you guys. So I wanted
Speaker 1: to make sure that I held the regular season lead.
Speaker 1: And I was almost at about se and just free cash,
Speaker 1: not invest in any teams at that point, so kind
Speaker 1: of rebalancing. Do you have a Wall Street background at all? No?
Speaker 1: But actually so uh, I work in real estate, so
Speaker 1: familiar with the real estate market. In the last two years,
Speaker 1: I've actually gotten super interested in the financial markets. So
Speaker 1: I've spent some time trying to do my best to
Speaker 1: learn about that. Crazy world. Um see, definitely a lot
Speaker 1: of carry over from the different markets. UH used to
Speaker 1: to gamble a little bit, you know, as an amateur
Speaker 1: on sports, and it really is interesting to carry over
Speaker 1: that you see between the different markets. So bringing a
Speaker 1: market perspective to the NFL season was pretty awesome. I'm
Speaker 1: glad it was a great experience for you. Really impressive. Again,
Speaker 1: that's at the score X. The score X is an app.
Speaker 1: It's this secret stock market thing that I've been talking
Speaker 1: about for years on the show, our first foray into
Speaker 1: making it into a public thing. What was the team
Speaker 1: that was the most profitable for you, would you say,
Speaker 1: during the season, And what was the team or teams
Speaker 1: And maybe maybe this is not even the proper question,
Speaker 1: but what was the team that threatened to sort of
Speaker 1: derail you at any point? It's hard to say who
Speaker 1: I made, you know, the most headway with, because really
Speaker 1: each team I was kind of in and out of
Speaker 1: probably throughout the season, almost every team, but I'd say
Speaker 1: the Eagles teams that you saw some of those ups
Speaker 1: and downs, trying to stay level headed and by when
Speaker 1: the price was right and so when when I saw
Speaker 1: things getting a little overvalued and certainly in terms of
Speaker 1: getting derailed early on. I lost quite a bit of
Speaker 1: money on the Jaguars. Uh. And something to maybe learned
Speaker 1: from that is kind of your first loss can be
Speaker 1: your best loss. So really getting out of them when
Speaker 1: they were just sliding down, not waiting for it to
Speaker 1: possibly bounce back, because apparently things did just get worse
Speaker 1: for them. It's fascinating. The first year I did it,
Speaker 1: I lost. You know. The first year I won a little,
Speaker 1: and then the second year I lost. And I remember
Speaker 1: telling those who ran it, I was like, you know what,
Speaker 1: I learned more losing than I did my winning year.
Speaker 1: And the third year I made out like gangbusters and
Speaker 1: I was the number one player. Good for you, congratulations.
Speaker 1: Let's talk some wild Card games, Greg, and let's begin
Speaker 1: with the first game chronologically on Saturday. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: we've ever seen a better five six combination than the
Speaker 1: Chargers and the Colts in the a f C. Let's
Speaker 1: started that with the number six seeded Colts against the
Speaker 1: number three seeded Houston Texans. These two teams finished one
Speaker 1: game apart in the a f C. South Texans win
Speaker 1: the division. Colts, though a tremendous well both of these
Speaker 1: teams really a tremendous trajectory to their season. The Texas
Speaker 1: won the a f C South after winning eleven of thirteen.
Speaker 1: They started out oh and three. They end up winning
Speaker 1: eleven of thirteen. The Colts start one in five, win
Speaker 1: nine of ten. The line here is one now in
Speaker 1: favor of the Houston in Texans. It did open at three.
Speaker 1: It's interesting in both of these Saturday games. And we'll
Speaker 1: get to the Seahawks and Cowboys in a bit, but
Speaker 1: both of these started at three. There's a lot of
Speaker 1: love here for the road teams, almost to the point now.
Speaker 1: And I did tease all the road teams that are
Speaker 1: three point dogs are in that in that neighborhood, the
Speaker 1: Chargers being the other one on Sunday. But it just
Speaker 1: seems to me that in these Saturday games, Houston and
Speaker 1: Dallas getting so little love, just anecdotally from people around me.
Speaker 1: In fact, I haven't heard one person that I know
Speaker 1: say they like the Texans in this game. I'm curious
Speaker 1: if you think the pendulum has swung too much on
Speaker 1: this game. How do you feel? Total here now the
Speaker 1: highest on the board of forty nine. This got up
Speaker 1: to forty nine at Pinnacle this morning. Colts and Texans. Greg,
Speaker 1: we start with you, sir, all right, well, thanks for
Speaker 1: having me to start off. And really this is the
Speaker 1: game where I kind of had the weakest feel for.
Speaker 1: I feel like these two teams, as you said, they're trajectories.
Speaker 1: I was looking at Indie winning nine of their last time,
Speaker 1: Houston winning love and of the last thirteen after starting
Speaker 1: going three. So really two teams who have been getting
Speaker 1: it done in the win lost column recently. But looking
Speaker 1: back at their seasons, there are two games that they
Speaker 1: played earlier, both decided by three points, and for that reason,
Speaker 1: I actually am on the Houston team, UM, and I
Speaker 1: saw the total at forty seven and a half. It
Speaker 1: must have been a little earlier in the week, so
Speaker 1: I was looking at over that total, UM, but taking
Speaker 1: the home team just based on the value there and
Speaker 1: understanding that this game could really go either way. Interesting
Speaker 1: in the sense that the Colts got here Sunday night
Speaker 1: they knew they couldn't win the division at that point
Speaker 1: when and they were in the playoffs. They knew that much.
Speaker 1: Marcus Mariotta, by the way, just side note for the
Speaker 1: Titans ends up not having surgery on neck or foot issues.
Speaker 1: It almost to me, seems like he's getting a free pass,
Speaker 1: like we'd kill other quarterbacks for not having played in
Speaker 1: that game. Mike Vrabel, Titans head coach, looked a little
Speaker 1: uncomfortable talking about it afterwards. Looks like he was a
Speaker 1: little annoyed. Nonetheless, Colts get it done. Sort of kept
Speaker 1: the Titans in the game with a signature Andrew Luck pick.
Speaker 1: That was a pick six that kept the Titans in
Speaker 1: after the Colts had taken a fourteen and nothing lead.
Speaker 1: But really, if you look at that game, utter domination
Speaker 1: in fact at one point and I'm trying to find
Speaker 1: the exact number here. By the way, the the the
Speaker 1: Achilles for the Colts, they were flagged twelve times for
Speaker 1: ninety six yards in that game. They got to clean
Speaker 1: that up, but Luck ended up shredding a Tennessee defense
Speaker 1: that came in as the NFL's number two scoring defense
Speaker 1: gave up just eighteen points a game and six against
Speaker 1: the past, but they were without a couple of defensive
Speaker 1: players Drell Casey Brian Racbo, who subsequently retired. That more
Speaker 1: than made up for the Colts loss of their center
Speaker 1: Ryan Kelly. So the Colts are in they are a
Speaker 1: live dog, and they are a team, the proverbial team
Speaker 1: that no one wants to face. Well, you know, I
Speaker 1: agree nobody wants to face them because Andrew Luck's having
Speaker 1: a sensational season. We didn't know what to expect from
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck, coming in off of missing an entire season,
Speaker 1: a new coaching regime, everything going there. Nobody figured the
Speaker 1: Colts would be as good as they were. And as
Speaker 1: you pointed out nine and one to finish the season out,
Speaker 1: what's been the bigger surprise to me? One? You know,
Speaker 1: in any other season, the numbers that Lux put up
Speaker 1: this year, he would be, you know, considered an m
Speaker 1: v P type season. But you've got a season where
Speaker 1: you got my homes and breathe what they've done and
Speaker 1: then throw in rivers and you know, you forget about him.
Speaker 1: But this has been an incredible year for him. But
Speaker 1: what I'm surprised about with the Colts is the biggest
Speaker 1: surprises the defense. This is a team that you know,
Speaker 1: come in never known for their defense. Number ten this
Speaker 1: season in points allowed at twenty one point five, in
Speaker 1: number thirteen in yards per play. Uh, that has been
Speaker 1: the biggest improvement I've seen on this team and makes
Speaker 1: you wonder just really how bad you know the previous
Speaker 1: coach with Pegano really was Houston on the flip side,
Speaker 1: guys eleven and two. As you said, those two losses
Speaker 1: both were by three and two points, we're kind of
Speaker 1: hard to ignore them. I agree with you Gil that
Speaker 1: the uh teaser here on Indianapolis looks like the only
Speaker 1: way to go. I see this as a tight game.
Speaker 1: The total's gone up from forty seven to forty nine.
Speaker 1: I think there's value in the ender because as surprising
Speaker 1: as Indianapolis's defense has been, Houston has a good defense
Speaker 1: as well. They're number four and points allowed at nineteen
Speaker 1: point seven and number nine at yards per play. Given
Speaker 1: this is a playoff game, both of the first two
Speaker 1: games were close. UH you had you know the first game,
Speaker 1: uh if you remember that when that was the overtime
Speaker 1: game and the crazy decision by Frank Wright to uh
Speaker 1: go in the you know give basically give us in
Speaker 1: that game. I think the enders the play I will
Speaker 1: have teasers on Indie, but I think the safer bet
Speaker 1: in this game is under forty nine. I think you're
Speaker 1: just see a little more conservative of the game plan.
Speaker 1: UH in this one, that playoff atmosphere, and I just
Speaker 1: think forty nine is too high. The public's looking to
Speaker 1: the two scores, and you know, you say, Andrew Luck,
Speaker 1: you automatically think offense. I think the values in the
Speaker 1: under Yeah, Warren sharp on numbers game on Visa this
Speaker 1: morning with me leaned under on this game as it
Speaker 1: was rising during the show to Pinnacle. You bring up
Speaker 1: a great point. I am contractually obligated to mention that
Speaker 1: that first game, obviously, if frank Reich doesn't go for
Speaker 1: it there and they end up with a tie, frank
Speaker 1: Wich going for it in their own territory against the Texans,
Speaker 1: Texans then stopping the play, needing only one play to
Speaker 1: get themselves in the field goal position to win that
Speaker 1: game in overtime. But if there's a tie in that game,
Speaker 1: the Colts win the division and not the Texans. Obviously,
Speaker 1: that's a lot of ifs between then and now. But
Speaker 1: if you just change that one outcome, that's what happens,
Speaker 1: and those of us who have eight to one Colts
Speaker 1: winning the a f C South tickets would have cashed.
Speaker 1: No bitterness there. But that brings up a point about
Speaker 1: Houston the Ways, which is It wasn't only that game.
Speaker 1: Phrase that I've used for the texts is all year
Speaker 1: long is that they had Jedi mind tricked other coaches,
Speaker 1: Frank Reich into going forward in his own territory, and
Speaker 1: over time the next week getting Jason Garrett to punt
Speaker 1: in overtime in Texans territory. There was a game against
Speaker 1: the Bills which they had no business winning, which they
Speaker 1: gotta pick six on late and then a subsequent pick uh.
Speaker 1: There was the Vance Joseph game where Vance Joseph decided
Speaker 1: to kick a sixties some yard field goal late in
Speaker 1: the first half. Again, the Texans turned that right into
Speaker 1: a field goal of their own. They ended up winning
Speaker 1: the game by less than a field goal. There were
Speaker 1: so many instances of that for the Texans this year,
Speaker 1: and I'm leaving out a couple where it was as
Speaker 1: if the other coach was under a spell the opposing coach.
Speaker 1: So it's been a magical year in that respect for
Speaker 1: the Texans. It does, then, though, follow that you would
Speaker 1: say to yourself, all right, playoff game. They are facing
Speaker 1: a team like the Colts. These are obviously the teams,
Speaker 1: as we mentioned, that have come in on the biggest
Speaker 1: runs into the playoffs. What are you buying here? Or
Speaker 1: is this a game that if it were in the
Speaker 1: middle of a regular Sunday you would You're clear of
Speaker 1: entirely real quickly, I just want to throw out there,
Speaker 1: I have not placed a single bet on any of
Speaker 1: these NFL wild Card games, and where four days away
Speaker 1: from the Sunday game. So I just don't want to
Speaker 1: hear all you you like Dallas and you gave alt
Speaker 1: Seattle is your biggest beg. You're giving us both sides
Speaker 1: to scam us. I don't want to hear that ship.
Speaker 1: I'm just telling you now, I haven't placed a bet,
Speaker 1: but I can tell you what I like right now.
Speaker 1: And more importantly, I wanted to add be very very
Speaker 1: very cautious reading into line moves in the playoffs early on,
Speaker 1: because I can tell you this from experience over the
Speaker 1: last three or four seasons, every single group that I
Speaker 1: provide accounts for has never been a playoff game prior
Speaker 1: to the weekend. Into the real accounts, and what I
Speaker 1: mean by that is when I get on screen accounts,
Speaker 1: if someone can to me an account that's a cris account,
Speaker 1: a Penny accounts, something like that that's on screen. I
Speaker 1: don't even take a percentage of those. I don't want
Speaker 1: anything to do with those. I hand those off because
Speaker 1: I know I ainty percent of the ship they put
Speaker 1: in there is all dummy plays, all little middles they
Speaker 1: worked and everything to try to manipulate the market. Almost
Speaker 1: nothing real goes in those accounts, and I don't want
Speaker 1: to try to guess, so I don't even take a
Speaker 1: percentage of those. So be very cautious as far as
Speaker 1: line movements go. Granted, they get out ahead of the
Speaker 1: market on a lot of these moves, but with that said,
Speaker 1: the real positions, the strong ones that the sides they're
Speaker 1: really taking and not just taking picking off numbers come later,
Speaker 1: believe it or not. And it makes sense because a
Speaker 1: lot of these lines get knocked down a rank. There's
Speaker 1: so much public money involved. Now with Indianapolis Houston, you're
Speaker 1: gonna get good two way action for the books. It's
Speaker 1: gonna be interesting to see if the Bettingston gets actually
Speaker 1: do get involved, because it does look like they took Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: But I can tell you I saw nothing to support
Speaker 1: that other than taking the right side of the plus
Speaker 1: three expecting this line to go down um and getting
Speaker 1: out ahead of that move. That's all they did. And
Speaker 1: the reason for that is these two teams play very tight.
Speaker 1: If you look over the last six times, only one
Speaker 1: game was it, you know, by more than six points
Speaker 1: was the final outcome. They know each other well, they
Speaker 1: play each other extremely tight. It's usually a coin toss
Speaker 1: at the end um and so it kind of makes
Speaker 1: sense to get the best sign of the three. But
Speaker 1: I wouldn't to consider that a real position. But I
Speaker 1: do agree there with Marco. Also, you know that line's
Speaker 1: going up as far as the over, but I would
Speaker 1: not conclude out that's they're just steaming that over, you know,
Speaker 1: and expect a lot of points. Finally, I made my
Speaker 1: line for this game Houston two and a half, so
Speaker 1: you know it's right at that number. I honestly don't
Speaker 1: really see much value either way. I would have to
Speaker 1: get information that to push me on one direction or another,
Speaker 1: So I don't want to take up you know, more
Speaker 1: of the listeners times. I really know this game's a
Speaker 1: coin toss, man, and I think the numbers where it
Speaker 1: should be okay makes sense. I will tell people that
Speaker 1: the only thing that I did um so far is
Speaker 1: when the Seahawks and the Chargers were both at three
Speaker 1: re at bookmaker, I immediately seven point teased them both,
Speaker 1: so I got the Seahawks and the Chargers plus ten.
Speaker 1: I did make a bet on the Chargers as well
Speaker 1: at plus three. That's what I've done so far. I
Speaker 1: usually start out the wild Card show every year, gentlemen,
Speaker 1: and I kind of buried this uh this year, but
Speaker 1: I'll mention it now, which is that typically during the
Speaker 1: regular season, not typically, but by the numbers since night,
Speaker 1: as far as the databases go back, the spread matters
Speaker 1: just seventeen percent of the time, so roughly eighty two
Speaker 1: point eight percent of the time, nearly eighty three percent
Speaker 1: of the time underdogs win outright or favorites win and
Speaker 1: cover in the process, so only seventeen percent of the
Speaker 1: time do favorites win but not cover. In the playoffs,
Speaker 1: that number of seventeen percent where the spread actually matters decreases,
Speaker 1: and in wild card weekend it's at its lowest eighty
Speaker 1: nine point eight percent of the time, so almost nine
Speaker 1: percent of the time, nine out of ten times, the
Speaker 1: spread does not matter. So if you pick a winner,
Speaker 1: in other words, you'll more than likely win anyway, So
Speaker 1: the spread becomes immaterial now as it so happens on Saturday.
Speaker 1: We have one spread that's down to as low as
Speaker 1: one in certain spots on the Colts and the Texans.
Speaker 1: Same thing with the Seattle Dallas game. So, to use
Speaker 1: the French phrase, it's fatal complee that that wild card
Speaker 1: staff that I just gave is gonna manifest anyway on
Speaker 1: Saturday in both games might very well happen in the
Speaker 1: two and a half points read one on the Chargers
Speaker 1: in Baltimore as well. So it's already baked into it
Speaker 1: this week, if you will this game between Seattle and Dallas,
Speaker 1: Marco will start with you here. Dallas inexplicably Jason Garrett,
Speaker 1: he does rest Zeke, and he does rest a couple
Speaker 1: offensive lineman, but Dak plays the whole game against the Giants,
Speaker 1: and they beat the Giants in dramatic fashion on a
Speaker 1: deck to Cole Beasley touchdown. What a catch by Beasley
Speaker 1: it was. I did wonder the watching that game, how
Speaker 1: curious of a decision that was It worked out for Dallas.
Speaker 1: Vander Esh got a shin bruise, could have been worse,
Speaker 1: could have really been an egg on the face of
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. But it was very peculiar because the Cowboys
Speaker 1: acted like they won the Super Bowl. It was the
Speaker 1: weirdest thing in the world. Had no bearing on their
Speaker 1: number four seed here in the NFC. They get it done,
Speaker 1: by the way, it should be mentioned because no one
Speaker 1: else is. They also improved the Giants draft position and
Speaker 1: weakened there's in the process side note, but that was
Speaker 1: curious for sure. Seattle, on the other hand, they just
Speaker 1: have to beat Arizona. They're in the playoffs anyway, so
Speaker 1: it's just a seeding situation for Seattle. They barely squeaked
Speaker 1: by the Cardinals. Now this is Seattle at Dallas. Parton
Speaker 1: barcel with what I was saying earlier about Indianapolis Houston.
Speaker 1: How I'm wondering if there's just a little too much
Speaker 1: love on these road dogs. Home road splits is something
Speaker 1: that I've talked about all year. Seattle's four and four
Speaker 1: on the road straight up. Dallas was seven and one
Speaker 1: straight up at home. By the way, Indianapolis same thing,
Speaker 1: four and four on the road. Houston was six and
Speaker 1: two straight up at home. Home road splits have never
Speaker 1: been more relevant than they are this year. How do
Speaker 1: you see this game and let me just mention the
Speaker 1: total here is at forty three. Now this open at
Speaker 1: forty one a half, got all the way up to
Speaker 1: forty four. I had Crackenburger and Sharp on my show
Speaker 1: on Visa this morning. They are were all about the
Speaker 1: over and now it's come down to forty two and
Speaker 1: a half at Pinnacle, So it's a chance to bet
Speaker 1: it over again. If you are so inclined. How do
Speaker 1: you feel about this game? Marco well um in different
Speaker 1: on the total, but the side here, I do think
Speaker 1: Seattle is getting too much love in this game. Uh,
Speaker 1: we know what Seattle and this has been an incredible job.
Speaker 1: And honestly, Pete Carroll should have consideration for a Coach
Speaker 1: of the Year with what he's done with the roster.
Speaker 1: You go back to week one and you look at
Speaker 1: the roster that they put out there to what they
Speaker 1: had before. It was a skeleton of what they had.
Speaker 1: And for him to get this team to the playoffs, uh,
Speaker 1: credit him and credit Russell Wilson for putting this team
Speaker 1: on their back. But you look at what they're doing
Speaker 1: and what they've done is this is a team that
Speaker 1: you know is living with the ground game. They led
Speaker 1: league at a hundred and sixty yards per game. Uh,
Speaker 1: running the football, now what that do? Well? That improves
Speaker 1: their defense because their defense is not on the field
Speaker 1: for as many plays. When you can control the clock
Speaker 1: in time of possession like that, also, you know it
Speaker 1: wears teams down. But I look at the competition at
Speaker 1: Seattle's played this year, and I really believe they have
Speaker 1: faced one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. These
Speaker 1: two met early in the season. You've got to completely
Speaker 1: throw that game out because Dallas was not the roster
Speaker 1: that they are now. And what was different were out
Speaker 1: one player and how one player changed everything on this
Speaker 1: team on all sides of the football. When they added
Speaker 1: Amari Cooper, it increased the running game for z Kelliott
Speaker 1: because now they've got to respect the pass. They also
Speaker 1: it gives Dak somebody to throw to. It improved Dax game.
Speaker 1: Also improved the defense because now this offense was staying
Speaker 1: on the field longer. Teams were, you know, daring them
Speaker 1: to throw the football, and if they clogged it up
Speaker 1: and they had a three and out, that defense was
Speaker 1: right back out there. That's not the case anymore. I
Speaker 1: like the Cowboys in this spot. Uh Dallas is the
Speaker 1: best defense that Seattle will have faced in the last
Speaker 1: eight weeks. Uh Dallas is good against the run. I
Speaker 1: think they can slow down this hundred and sixty yard
Speaker 1: per game offensive Seattle. And then Russell Wilson, which I'm
Speaker 1: not saying he can't because this guy is amazing, would
Speaker 1: have to carry the team with his arm and with
Speaker 1: his legs, and that's always a possibility. But I like
Speaker 1: Dallas and I think that moved by Jason Garrett last week.
Speaker 1: I just think he wants to keep winning attitude going. Um.
Speaker 1: You saw what happened last year with the Rams, took
Speaker 1: the last week off and then they couldn't turn it
Speaker 1: back on in their first playoff game. I think the coaches,
Speaker 1: some of the you know guys are seeing that and
Speaker 1: staying with momentum. Because if you look and when we
Speaker 1: get to the Charger game, I was just pulling what
Speaker 1: little hair I had out left that the Chargers had
Speaker 1: their players in as late as they did when Kansas
Speaker 1: City was you know, just blowing out the Raiders. So
Speaker 1: I'm on Dallas here. Uh. But I do think that
Speaker 1: you know, getting it to you know, over the touchdown
Speaker 1: as far as the teaser obviously is attractive based on
Speaker 1: the history of these two teams playing close games and
Speaker 1: the fact that we're looking at a very low total. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, that's what I did. And you're right. The
Speaker 1: Patriots Bill Belichick, Tom Brady was in there against the Jets.
Speaker 1: They were up big in that game, kept him in.
Speaker 1: I just, I'm just tired of this whole like Neanderthal
Speaker 1: CE defense, B defense, CE offense, stop offense. It's almost
Speaker 1: as if a scoreboard and a and a and a
Speaker 1: clock doesn't exist with some of these games, and there's
Speaker 1: no tactical thinking just to put in a college game
Speaker 1: the Ohio State you dubbed Rose Bowl yesterday, Ohio State
Speaker 1: wouldn't run the play clock below fifteen seconds and they
Speaker 1: were running plays yesterday within six minutes like six different times.
Speaker 1: Like is there any thought of context, any thought of
Speaker 1: winning a football game? And then, by the way, Chris
Speaker 1: Peterson calls time out in punts, Ohio State comes back
Speaker 1: throws an incomplete pass just to stop the clock. Hey,
Speaker 1: in case you messed up yourself, we'll help you out anymore. Like,
Speaker 1: I just I can't take it anymore with coaches. I
Speaker 1: almost think we give everybody too much credit the way
Speaker 1: they coach these games. It's just a brain dads. Anyway,
Speaker 1: just meet ranting me. You're trying to tell me I
Speaker 1: didn't have the right side with Washington yesterday. By the
Speaker 1: way I should measure, Cowboys won their seventh and eight
Speaker 1: games when they beat the Giants, so they're on a
Speaker 1: seven and one streak headed in the postseason. And the Seahawks, Uh,
Speaker 1: despite having trouble with the Cardinals, they win their six,
Speaker 1: the sixth and their final seven games they head into
Speaker 1: the postseason. Ace your thoughts here. Yeah, and I made Seattle.
Speaker 1: Actually I thought Seattle should go in favored in the Dallas.
Speaker 1: You know, it's football favor maybe about a one point favor.
Speaker 1: But I did not see why Dallas would would come
Speaker 1: out um as the favorite. But more importantly, it got
Speaker 1: beat up the two and a half. Um That to
Speaker 1: me was a little bit surprising. Here's what I don't
Speaker 1: like about Dallas. Actually, what I've seen the last couple
Speaker 1: of weeks, and that's not running the football. I mean
Speaker 1: the last three weeks. Twenty two rushes against Indianapolis, twenty
Speaker 1: four against Tampa, twenty two against the New York Giants.
Speaker 1: That's not Dallas football. UM. On the flip side, Seattle
Speaker 1: has been They've changed everything, and I think he got
Speaker 1: a credit Brian Schottenheimer for all of that. He has
Speaker 1: saved Wilson's career. This year marks his lowest pass attempts
Speaker 1: four seven, his fewest since the second year he was
Speaker 1: in the league, and then on Tampa that he's only
Speaker 1: rushed for a career low sixty seven attempts. UM. Usually
Speaker 1: you think that's a bad thing because they depend on
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson so much, but it's everyone else has had
Speaker 1: to step up. And the one running back no one's
Speaker 1: talking about is Chris Carson. I mean six games with
Speaker 1: a hundred plus rushing yards. Only other guys to do
Speaker 1: that Barkley, Elliott, Girlie and James Conner. And yet Carson
Speaker 1: is a guy no one's talking about. UM. I really
Speaker 1: do think this Seattle teams better than actually they're getting
Speaker 1: credit for. UM, we're Dallas. On the flip side, you know, listen,
Speaker 1: I'm I wasn't all that impressed with Dallas from the
Speaker 1: beginning of the year. If you look at all their wins, UM,
Speaker 1: they were all coin flips. I mean, everything was a
Speaker 1: one possession win pretty much. You look over the last
Speaker 1: six seven weeks, Uh, you know they haven't been blowing
Speaker 1: anyone out. Um So, for me, I think Seattle could
Speaker 1: stay in this game from start to finish. I agree
Speaker 1: you throw out that that September game, it means nothing,
Speaker 1: but the way they've been protecting the football, only four
Speaker 1: turnovers over the last eight weeks, never more than one
Speaker 1: in a game. You do that, you win football games. Man.
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter who you play. I just like the
Speaker 1: way Seattle's playing right now. Again, I haven't bet this game, um,
Speaker 1: but I like Seattle in it. And I'll tell you what,
Speaker 1: on a neutral field, I make Seattle field goal favorite
Speaker 1: at least over the Dallas count Boys. Um So, I
Speaker 1: think even with this line dropping now from that high
Speaker 1: we saw earlier in the week two and a half,
Speaker 1: I still think there's value on Seattle. So for me,
Speaker 1: it's Seattle or nothing at all. And I agree with
Speaker 1: the over as well. I think it's a little bit
Speaker 1: too low. Um at forty two and a half, I
Speaker 1: was surprised they brought it out that low. Alright, APO
Speaker 1: on the side, Thank goodness. There's other betting vehicles like
Speaker 1: totals or teasers and that kind of thing. You are
Speaker 1: not required to bet these a t S. If there's
Speaker 1: anything I try to do on a numbers game and
Speaker 1: try to break people out of that construct of a
Speaker 1: t S is a great example some of these games.
Speaker 1: Seattle at Dallas. UH. Keep in mind, by the way,
Speaker 1: Chris Carson, since you bring him up as hundred twenty
Speaker 1: two yards and a touchdown versus Arizona, but Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: was sacked six times in that game. They got to
Speaker 1: clean that up and Seattle had a three and out
Speaker 1: on five straight offensive possessions UH, starting in the middle
Speaker 1: of the second quarter through the middle of the third.
Speaker 1: So they really that was not an impressive game. They
Speaker 1: gotta bounce back from that. Starting quarterbacks Shaquille Griffin, he
Speaker 1: left in the first half with a twisted right ankle injury,
Speaker 1: did not return. Did not practice yesterday Tuesday, So keep
Speaker 1: an eye on Shaquille Griffin's injury for sure. Doug Baldwin
Speaker 1: also missed practice yesterday, but he should play. He said,
Speaker 1: I think when it comes down to it is nobody
Speaker 1: wanted to play in Chicago. We wanted to play in Dallas.
Speaker 1: In a Dome, Doug Baldwin very honest about that. Greg
Speaker 1: Deeter profitable forty point one percent portfolio profit. What do
Speaker 1: you think about this game? Sea pickyback nine A couple
Speaker 1: of things that you guys said. I was definitely looking
Speaker 1: at the home road split here. Uh, seeing with Seattle
Speaker 1: at four and four on the road, and even though
Speaker 1: they a lot of these teams have had some momentum
Speaker 1: coming into the playoffs, going six and one for Seattle,
Speaker 1: five of those wins were in Seattle. Uh, But definitely
Speaker 1: like them with the teaser. Like you guys were saying,
Speaker 1: teas in Seattle teasing that dog. There seems to be
Speaker 1: some value there. I like J. J. Wright coming back
Speaker 1: into that lineup. I think putting him next to Bobby
Speaker 1: Wagner at the speed element to that defense, I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be a pretty sound on that side of
Speaker 1: the ball. But again, with these close games, and it
Speaker 1: makes a fun weekend to watch. Maybe a little tough
Speaker 1: to bet ah ts um so Seattle with the teaser,
Speaker 1: but if I didn't have to take it a t s,
Speaker 1: I think I'd be on the Cowboys at two two
Speaker 1: and a half. It's a great way to say it. Though,
Speaker 1: if if you're forced to bet a t s, that's
Speaker 1: the thing that people should take away more than anything,
Speaker 1: at least I think on these Saturday games and even
Speaker 1: into Sunday, a brief reminder that support for today's show,
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Speaker 1: to Sunday. Chargers are at Baltimore. That's the early game
Speaker 1: on Sunday, Chargers twelve and four, fifth seed. Oh, what
Speaker 1: could have been? What could have been? But you know what,
Speaker 1: the Chargers on the road as a dog from a
Speaker 1: betting standpoint a lot of opportunities with them. I'm heavily
Speaker 1: invested in them with futures in the A f C primarily,
Speaker 1: but I like him on the road. Uh. Some people
Speaker 1: thought the Chargers should be favored in this game. John
Speaker 1: Murray over at the West Gate, he was surprised that
Speaker 1: the Charges weren't favored. I guessed that the Chargers would
Speaker 1: be three point dogs. That's in fact what it was.
Speaker 1: That because Baltimore had just gone in to l A
Speaker 1: and beating the Charges two to ten. Very recently, Chargers
Speaker 1: get by the Broncos on Sunday. Philip Rivers completed fourteen
Speaker 1: passes game they didn't need once Kansas City started stomping
Speaker 1: on the Raiders in their game, but the Charges of
Speaker 1: one six straight on the road. They were seven and
Speaker 1: one away from home this year. Their only road loss
Speaker 1: uh to the Rams back in September. No shame in that.
Speaker 1: And Baltimore is in this on the heels of Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1: Six in one run. Lamar Jackson. You talk about saving
Speaker 1: somebody's job, Lamar Jackson saving John Harbaugh's job. Baltimore staves
Speaker 1: off a furious Baker Mayfield come back and drive late
Speaker 1: to clinch the a f C North. Sorry, Marco, the Steelers,
Speaker 1: And that was a great shot, by the way, when
Speaker 1: they were showing the Steelers after they got by the
Speaker 1: Bengals in their game, looking up at the jumbo tron
Speaker 1: watching that final drive, that was great. Drama didn't happen
Speaker 1: for the Steelers. That's a whole another subject with all
Speaker 1: their drama with Levian and Antonio Brown, and that team
Speaker 1: needs a home makeover. They don't get the tie at
Speaker 1: night either to get them in the postseason. So it's
Speaker 1: the Ravens here a C North champs hosting the Chargers.
Speaker 1: The proverbial team. You do not want to play in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Ace, we start with you here. Baltimore by
Speaker 1: two and a half right now, total at forty one
Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, And I've been really high on
Speaker 1: on the Charges all year. It's just having to travel
Speaker 1: on the road and to Baltimore. This is not a
Speaker 1: good spot for them. Now. When they played in earlier December,
Speaker 1: it was another situation which was not a good spot
Speaker 1: for the Chargers. If you remember, um it was kind
Speaker 1: of a sandwich game. They were coming off a win
Speaker 1: at Kansas City by one point in that phenomenal finish. Um,
Speaker 1: they have played Baltimore at home, and then they had
Speaker 1: Denver on deck. Uh So, it wasn't a great spot
Speaker 1: for the Chargers. And it was a pretty good spot
Speaker 1: for Baltimore. I mean, they had played Tampa the week prior.
Speaker 1: It was a pretty easy game they won. Um So,
Speaker 1: I mean it was a better spot for Baltimore even
Speaker 1: though they had to travel there and get to win.
Speaker 1: And the way they did it was simple. They ran
Speaker 1: the football thirty five time for a hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: yards and forced two turnovers. Uh actually one fumble and
Speaker 1: two interceptions, so three turnovers and were plus two in
Speaker 1: that ratio. So I mean, when you do that, you're
Speaker 1: gonna win. And that's the one thing with UM the Chargers,
Speaker 1: they just haven't been protecting the football of late. Uh
Speaker 1: you look, they've had nine turnovers over their last three games,
Speaker 1: and to me, that's a little bit troubling. And more importantly,
Speaker 1: Baltimore is the one team that's just so overlooked UM
Speaker 1: and and really I think disrespected in today's NFL because
Speaker 1: of the way they get it done. You're not supposed
Speaker 1: to be able to win football games in two thousand
Speaker 1: and nineteen not throwing the football. And I mean since
Speaker 1: Jackson has taken over, Brown and Crabtree have never had
Speaker 1: more than fifty yards, even though they had five games
Speaker 1: on their Flacco with fifty plus yards. I think you
Speaker 1: look at all his other targets, Andrew's snead nothing. I mean,
Speaker 1: none of UM had more than five catches in a
Speaker 1: single game since he's taken over. And yet they're winning
Speaker 1: football games. So it's like everybody says, we're okay with this,
Speaker 1: and I love that UM do what you do best,
Speaker 1: and that's running the football. And I think you're gonna
Speaker 1: see a heavy dose of that on Sunday, and I'm
Speaker 1: not too sure San Diego is gonna be able to
Speaker 1: handle it because you look at San Diego's defense, granted
Speaker 1: good and even against the run, it looks that way,
Speaker 1: but that's against teams that did not run on them.
Speaker 1: I mean, other than Baltimore and Cincinnati, no one else
Speaker 1: even tried to run against San Diego. And when Cincinnati
Speaker 1: did try to run, they ran thirty three times for
Speaker 1: a hundred forty four yards. They were successful running. Baltimore,
Speaker 1: they were successful running. I think that's how you beat
Speaker 1: San Diego. You keep that offense on the sideline, you
Speaker 1: make you force them the press. That's when they turn
Speaker 1: the ball over and you just control the football and
Speaker 1: keep running, running, running, and forced them to stop you.
Speaker 1: And to me, I think that's a sap be for
Speaker 1: winning in the playoffs. Hopefully it's cold in Baltimore. I
Speaker 1: like Baltimore, even though I made this line pretty much
Speaker 1: where it sits right now, so not much line value
Speaker 1: based on my numbers. I think the handicap the situation
Speaker 1: sets up nicely. I like Baltimore to advance man and
Speaker 1: again I feel paper San Diego um like this is
Speaker 1: another year where they're the pretty much the second level,
Speaker 1: you know. I mean, they're ready to take that next step,
Speaker 1: and things just don't end up well either, playing a
Speaker 1: road wild card game instead of a home playoff game.
Speaker 1: So for me, I like Baltimore here at home, and
Speaker 1: were it not for a last second loss to the
Speaker 1: Broncos at home in November, it would be the Chargers
Speaker 1: as the number one seed in the a f C
Speaker 1: playoffs and earning a first round by by the way,
Speaker 1: Hunter Henry showing up for this game for the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon in as well, but Hunter Henry making his
Speaker 1: first appearance of the season. Greg, what you got on
Speaker 1: this one? So you're looking at this game, I mean,
Speaker 1: it's never gonna be easy to go into Baltimore in
Speaker 1: the playoffs situation like this and come out with a wink.
Speaker 1: I'll be rooting for your ticket here when the Chargers
Speaker 1: getting the points. Looking back, this is actually a game
Speaker 1: I rewatched their recent game, the recent matchup between these
Speaker 1: two teams and seeing how the game was tight and
Speaker 1: seeing how it developed with the Antonio Gates fumble in
Speaker 1: the fourth core that was returned for a touchdown to
Speaker 1: put Baltimore up twelve and then Rivers taking a deep
Speaker 1: shot and throw an interception in the end zone with
Speaker 1: about a minute and a half left. I think one
Speaker 1: of the keys here is going to be the Chargers
Speaker 1: edge players recently playing that Baltimore team and seeing their
Speaker 1: offensive attack. Hopefully that helps, you know, with their eyes
Speaker 1: and the keys to try to decipher that run game
Speaker 1: and maybe can dictate how Baltimore plays offenses the game develops,
Speaker 1: and and then we'll see uh Lamar Jackson and in
Speaker 1: the pressure situation having to complete a couple of passes.
Speaker 1: So I'm sure he can do it. He's certainly a
Speaker 1: threat even when they're throwing the ball, running, taking off
Speaker 1: and running. So a good matchup here. But I think
Speaker 1: the Chargers have a balanced offense, defense, special teams that
Speaker 1: can can hopefully get them to win in this one. Greg,
Speaker 1: do you feel empty now that you don't have schedules
Speaker 1: to analyze anymore? Like remaining schedules for all these teams?
Speaker 1: I do, to be honest, Yeah, A lot of what
Speaker 1: I was doing was, you know, looking at two or
Speaker 1: three weeks in the future. Obviously we can sit there
Speaker 1: and a lot of things are gonna change. Week to week,
Speaker 1: whether you win or you lose. But with these markets,
Speaker 1: it was it was trying to look down the road,
Speaker 1: set up certain you know, buys or cells, to to
Speaker 1: see what the future holds for these teams. So yeah,
Speaker 1: slightly different looking at these playoff games. That's the whole game.
Speaker 1: The stock market game is scheduled analysis Marco Chargers and
Speaker 1: Ravens Sunday morning. Yeah, guys, you look at this one,
Speaker 1: and you know Baltimore, you know, they keep doing it.
Speaker 1: It's ugly, but they get it done. And yeah, that
Speaker 1: scene watching on the jumboats on, I really thought Baker
Speaker 1: was going to pull it out whenever, but it just
Speaker 1: blows my mind. Whenever they were like five yards away
Speaker 1: from fueld goal range, when they got that catch, you know,
Speaker 1: and they got the rolling in their favor, they didn't
Speaker 1: make another yard. Four four past plays, you had a
Speaker 1: minute less in the game, you could ran the football
Speaker 1: somewhere in there was totally derailed. I I knew you would. Yeah,
Speaker 1: all they needed was the field goal, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: trust me, I didn't want it to season to come
Speaker 1: down to a Cleveland field goal kicker, believe me. Uh,
Speaker 1: this has just been a horrible year for kickers, but uh,
Speaker 1: I don't know. And then as far as the Chargers going,
Speaker 1: I alluded, what were they doing leaving everybody in that
Speaker 1: game as late as they did? Um? That was I
Speaker 1: was on the Broncos out full disclosure and that cost
Speaker 1: me a seven and oh ticket in the Nugget. That
Speaker 1: was my only loss in the Nugget. Go we are
Speaker 1: you in it? By the way? Are done? I was
Speaker 1: on the outstarts of just you know, maybe sneaking into
Speaker 1: the top twenty, but uh I needed that seven and
Speaker 1: oh and um we were like, but do you know
Speaker 1: how the last week is? And to go seven and
Speaker 1: oh in the squarely week seven and team, I can
Speaker 1: tell you I only had a couple of NFL plays
Speaker 1: the rest of those Bowl games. How about how about
Speaker 1: the guy? How about the guy who won the Super Contest?
Speaker 1: Eric Kahane, who goes by Personal Gourmet, went five and
Speaker 1: oh week seventeen to win the Super Contest seventy one
Speaker 1: point for a million dollars. Amazing, amazing, amazing. Uh this one,
Speaker 1: this is what I'm gonna go with on this one.
Speaker 1: And here's the thing We've talked about Lamar Jackson and
Speaker 1: everything that he's done and how unorthodox the system is,
Speaker 1: but it's working. But this is gonna be the first
Speaker 1: time for something in this game. It is going to
Speaker 1: be the first time a team faces him for the
Speaker 1: second time. Now, you know, it's one thing to have
Speaker 1: game film against other teams, but now you've got game
Speaker 1: film against yourself. And I think the Chargers are gonna
Speaker 1: have a better game plan, uh for Lamar Jackson. And
Speaker 1: I think that he is going to have to make
Speaker 1: some plays with his arm. And if they don't have
Speaker 1: a spy dedicated to him on every play, yeah, Anthony
Speaker 1: Lynn would be an idiot. Okay, you have to put
Speaker 1: one player on him every single play, and I think
Speaker 1: they're going to get the job done. Um, I know that.
Speaker 1: You know, usually I like to take teams to keep
Speaker 1: winning ugly because the public, you're usually gonna get value
Speaker 1: with them, and we're starting to see that because the
Speaker 1: money has gone to the Chargers. But I'm on the
Speaker 1: Chargers and this one. And of course, just like the
Speaker 1: Seattle game, if the one that I grabbed the teaser
Speaker 1: on immediately was getting the Chargers over the touchdown, you're
Speaker 1: talking about a team that's gonna run the football, run
Speaker 1: the lights out of the football. Even if they win,
Speaker 1: I'm looking at their margins of victory and generally it's
Speaker 1: not there to go over that touchdown. So that's where
Speaker 1: I'm at to make it short and sweet, and people,
Speaker 1: you know, everyone expecting at some point, Lamar Jackson's gonna
Speaker 1: have a bad game. Game. You know it's coming. That's
Speaker 1: what a lot of people say. It's come. And trust me, well,
Speaker 1: we'll see if it comes in this particular game. Philadelphia
Speaker 1: Chicago is the final of the four wild card games
Speaker 1: this weekend. It's the only one with a bigger spread
Speaker 1: than three. It's at six, five and a half, six
Speaker 1: somewhere in that pocket in favor of the Chicago Bears,
Speaker 1: who made their own bed by deciding to beat the
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings and therefore they end up with Nick Foles
Speaker 1: and the Eagles. This is one of these games where
Speaker 1: the total by the ways at forty one as well
Speaker 1: to really low totals on Sunday by today's NFL standards,
Speaker 1: I could totally see the Nick Foles magic run end
Speaker 1: with a big record scratch right here, because there was
Speaker 1: a scenario here where I could see the Bears winning
Speaker 1: miss by four touchdowns, Greg, what you got? Yeah, this
Speaker 1: game here is five and a half. Six, Like you
Speaker 1: were saying, it's not a number I'd love to play.
Speaker 1: But the Bears do have my backing playing at home
Speaker 1: with that defense. Kind of looking at Philadelphia season and
Speaker 1: what you were saying with Soles and and we'll see
Speaker 1: how this all develops. But yeah, I'd like to look
Speaker 1: at this game, maybe live betting ship how to get
Speaker 1: a better number early on rev than taking the five
Speaker 1: and a half. But that Bears team, the way they're
Speaker 1: playing at home, hopefully that offense you can keep the
Speaker 1: ball moving, keep the Eagles on their heels, and that
Speaker 1: defense should be able to close it out with a
Speaker 1: win for them. Nick Foles now six and oh and
Speaker 1: must win games filling in for Carson Wentz, including two
Speaker 1: this year stepped in for Whence sidelined by a back injury. Whence,
Speaker 1: of course, earlier this month, guided Philadelphia to an upset
Speaker 1: on the road against the Rams is thirteen and a
Speaker 1: half point Dogs and then uh the franchise record for
Speaker 1: yards passing in a game versus Houston, oh of course,
Speaker 1: and against the Redskins this week. How can I forget
Speaker 1: controlling the ball for forty three minutes and nineteen seconds,
Speaker 1: So three this year. Three. Last year Marco thirty year
Speaker 1: anniversary of a Fog Bowl, which was at Soldier Field.
Speaker 1: Bears beat the Eagles twenty to twelve back in the
Speaker 1: day to get to the NFC Championship. How do you
Speaker 1: see this one going, Fog Bowl? I remember quite well. Oh.
Speaker 1: I had a big play on the over in that game.
Speaker 1: And if you remember the first quarter, because those were
Speaker 1: two of the best defenses in the league and the
Speaker 1: total was so low, I said, they're gonna come out
Speaker 1: and throw the football at the other team aft guard
Speaker 1: and they did. There was like fourteen points right away,
Speaker 1: and then that fog just rolled in and sat its
Speaker 1: fat ass right for the rest of the game. That's
Speaker 1: still yeah, that still remains the most incredible thing that's
Speaker 1: ever happened to me, Like it's almost hard to believe
Speaker 1: that it happened. And for those who weren't like of
Speaker 1: an age where they can remember that game, you couldn't
Speaker 1: see a thing. It was incredible. Never said never anything
Speaker 1: before that or since. The weirdest thing ever. It was
Speaker 1: like in the second quarter where it happened when they
Speaker 1: came back from breaking all of a sudden, they came back.
Speaker 1: There was no visibility at that point. Side note to
Speaker 1: that game because I you know, I had a big
Speaker 1: play on that game and lost. It was like five
Speaker 1: or six days later at the Meadows, my race track
Speaker 1: at home, my mayor was race in a phillion there open.
Speaker 1: She would have went off that night like at three
Speaker 1: to five, just you know, jiggie jock. She was so
Speaker 1: sharp at the time, and she was racing four you know,
Speaker 1: a ten thousand dollar purse that night. About forty five
Speaker 1: minutes before her race, the same thing happened at the Meadows.
Speaker 1: This fog came in and laid right in the infield
Speaker 1: because the Meadows Racetrack has a you know, cut out infield.
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's a gully, and uh, it just
Speaker 1: lay there. They canceled the races. When they canceled the races,
Speaker 1: you get two hundred dollar consolation because you know, you
Speaker 1: traveled to course and stuff. Yeah, so it's that a
Speaker 1: ten thousand I got two hundred. So and all of
Speaker 1: my buddies were texting me laughing their ass off. You
Speaker 1: know that, Uh, you know twice in seven days. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you guys, that's the buddies I have. But on a
Speaker 1: side note to this one with Chicago, the Nick Foles story,
Speaker 1: I agree with you, a Gil. I think the the
Speaker 1: magical run and the love of Nick Foles fens real
Speaker 1: quick when they face the defense that is the nastiest
Speaker 1: defense that we have in the NFL, when Khalil Mac comes,
Speaker 1: you know, and puts the pressure on him. Look at
Speaker 1: the teams that Philadelphia has done this against, uh no offense.
Speaker 1: But you know, they've won five games in their last six. Okay,
Speaker 1: three of those wins were against the Giants and the
Speaker 1: Washington Redskins twice. And in fairness to the Redskins, they
Speaker 1: didn't have any players left. Okay, this was a team
Speaker 1: that had nothing left. So they beat a Rams team
Speaker 1: that came in off of um the biggest game of
Speaker 1: the year, that Sunday night game against the Bears. We
Speaker 1: talked about it in the uh in college football, you know,
Speaker 1: the Dream Crusher game, because the Rams wanted home field advantage.
Speaker 1: When they lost that game, home field advantage was gone.
Speaker 1: You know, they were playing for the number two seats.
Speaker 1: And then that was the week that Carson wentz Is out.
Speaker 1: So you think, okay, now we're gonna face the backup quarterback.
Speaker 1: We just gotta show up and we're gonna win. Remember
Speaker 1: that line jumped four points from nine nine, nine and
Speaker 1: a half the thirteen and a half. It got us
Speaker 1: high in that game, and Philadelphia took it to him
Speaker 1: and then they'd beat a Houston team that you know,
Speaker 1: Houston went up and down the field as well. It
Speaker 1: was a thirty two thirty game, So what about that defense.
Speaker 1: My only concern of why I'm not snapping the rubber
Speaker 1: bands on Chicago. I'm on Chicago. But this is uh
Speaker 1: Trabinsky's first playoff game, and just like with Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 1: I didn't mention that whenever we did that game. You know,
Speaker 1: we don't know how these guys are going to react
Speaker 1: with the pressure, especially being at home and being a favorite.
Speaker 1: You're you know, it puts more pressure on the young quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: But this is a defense that you're not gonna run
Speaker 1: the football on the Bears. And if Foles has to
Speaker 1: do it all with his arm, you know, two games
Speaker 1: ago against Houston he threw the football fifty times. If
Speaker 1: he has to throw the football fifty times in this game,
Speaker 1: they're gonna get blown out. I'll tell you that right now,
Speaker 1: double digits because there will be turnovers. I got Chicago. Um,
Speaker 1: Like I said, I'd love to make it bigger, but
Speaker 1: my only concern is Trabinsky. But I still have Chicago
Speaker 1: Bears of one nine of ten. In fairness, Eagles did
Speaker 1: hold the Redskins to eighty nine yards of total offense.
Speaker 1: But as you say, that's the Redskins on their fourth
Speaker 1: string quarterback and read into that what you will, Marco,
Speaker 1: you gotta run. So before you go answer this question
Speaker 1: real quick. If you're forced to bet sides, here the
Speaker 1: game you're most confident in the game, you want no
Speaker 1: part of of the four The most confident for me,
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna say the Dallas Cowboys. And the one
Speaker 1: that maybe I would be the least confident at this
Speaker 1: point is the Chargers because they're either gonna win and
Speaker 1: you know, and and win comfortably, or this chimmick offense
Speaker 1: of Baltimore is gonna, you know, bite me. And he
Speaker 1: asked one one time. Uh so That's where I'm at.
Speaker 1: But you know, I do like the games. You know,
Speaker 1: if we were doing this and say, is there no
Speaker 1: game that I went absolutely no part of, I don't
Speaker 1: say that because I think there's some kind of value
Speaker 1: in every one of these games, whether you're doing it
Speaker 1: taking it away from the A T s or not
Speaker 1: in using other methods such as the teaser and the
Speaker 1: charger game. All right, Marco, appreciate it, man, Thank you, Hey,
Speaker 1: thank you. Good luck, guys. Marco D'Angelo got stuff to do. Ace,
Speaker 1: He's got stuff to do that, all right. Marco hasn't
Speaker 1: hung up yet, so he's listening to us talk. He's like,
Speaker 1: is he gonna are they gonna talk more about me?
Speaker 1: All right? What do you think about this Philly at Chicago? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I actually I like Chicago here. And it was funny.
Speaker 1: I'm on on Sunday as they were playing the NFL
Speaker 1: games were ending, and um, it was a talk on
Speaker 1: Twitter what the lines are going to be? And Jason
Speaker 1: McIntyre tweets, um, Jason symbol of cannon and says, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think Chicago is going to be three and a
Speaker 1: half against Philly. What do you think? And I tried
Speaker 1: I tweet it in. I said, if they for off
Speaker 1: three and a half, I could promise you. My guys
Speaker 1: are betting it up the six, like just Paler rating alone.
Speaker 1: They're gonna jump on on Chicago. You know, even blindly,
Speaker 1: just the numbers value is going to be there, not
Speaker 1: even handicapping the match up. UM And I wasn't surprised
Speaker 1: to see the six. I still think it's too low.
Speaker 1: To be honest with you, I think if you factor
Speaker 1: in home field advantage, the line should be over a touchdown. Um.
Speaker 1: And I also want to say something real quick about teasers.
Speaker 1: You know, people say what's a good bet? What's a
Speaker 1: sucker bet? That The truth is I always say this.
Speaker 1: You want to know what's a good bet where the
Speaker 1: books are most vulnerable, just has the betting limits. That's
Speaker 1: all you gotta do. If they're not willing to take
Speaker 1: a bet, they're not too confident. Um. And the one
Speaker 1: thing you notice in the playoffs there are no rush
Speaker 1: to take teaser bets. In fact, when it comes down
Speaker 1: to the championship weekend, those books that are willing to
Speaker 1: take a five thousand dollar to team teaser during the
Speaker 1: regular season will take a nickel from you ten times
Speaker 1: less on championship weekend because they believe that the true
Speaker 1: odds are much greater than the house edge come that far. Um. So,
Speaker 1: I mean any time a book is worried about taking
Speaker 1: a bet, you don't be afraid to exploit it by thinking, oh,
Speaker 1: you know, there's always that rule, this is always a
Speaker 1: sucker bet because nothing could be further from the truth.
Speaker 1: And again, if this was over a touchdown, Chicago would
Speaker 1: be an automatic tease. At this point, I think even personally,
Speaker 1: I don't have a problem laying in, but I saw
Speaker 1: the money line at minus two forty two fifty. To me,
Speaker 1: that's a steal. Your break even is like sevent They
Speaker 1: have to win straight on, and I think their probability
Speaker 1: is much greater than that. I mean, there's a one
Speaker 1: lost team at home against a fifty fifty team of
Speaker 1: Philadelphia on the road that's just decimated. I mean, you
Speaker 1: look at their backfield for weeks now, they don't even
Speaker 1: know who's gonna be back there. They use three different
Speaker 1: backs than two of them I've never even seen before.
Speaker 1: And then you look at Traubinsky, I think he's gonna
Speaker 1: be just fine. I kind of disagree with with Mark
Speaker 1: on that point. I think you want to play at home.
Speaker 1: I think the pressure is less in the playoffs than
Speaker 1: having to travel on the road in hostile you know
Speaker 1: where where there is you're in the red zone and
Speaker 1: the fans are going nuts and you can't call the
Speaker 1: count or audible. I just think there's a lot of
Speaker 1: advantages of playing at home, even if you're a young guy.
Speaker 1: And which Forbinski, here's what I love the most about him.
Speaker 1: How he distributes the football. Allan Robertson targeted nineteen percent
Speaker 1: at the time, Gabriel eighteen percent at a time, Cohen
Speaker 1: sixteen percent at a time, Burnton sixteen percent at a time,
Speaker 1: Miller eleven percent at a time. You don't know who's
Speaker 1: getting the football. You can't just double up one guy.
Speaker 1: I mean, he just spreads it around. So I mean
Speaker 1: this is a very dangerous team. In fact, I think
Speaker 1: Chicago is the third best team in the NFL right now.
Speaker 1: The only teams I would make favorite over Chicago in
Speaker 1: a neutral field are obviously the Saints and the Ramps.
Speaker 1: That's it, honestly and has no bias at all, even
Speaker 1: against Kansas City. I think Chicago is a one point
Speaker 1: favorite on a neutral um against either Kansas City or
Speaker 1: New England, which I have pretty close to each other. Um,
Speaker 1: So for me, I like Chicago here. I don't think
Speaker 1: the six is a problem you know, I always fear
Speaker 1: backdoors always, but um again, I think Chicago should win
Speaker 1: this game. Pillar to post and Floyd, I mean Folds,
Speaker 1: I don't see Folds having a good game against this defense.
Speaker 1: I agree there as well. Yeah, I don't either, Chicago.
Speaker 1: So if you had the same question that I asked Marco,
Speaker 1: of you, the game that you feel most confident on
Speaker 1: a t s the one least confident, Houston Indianapolis is
Speaker 1: the least. I really don't even have an opinion on
Speaker 1: on the game to have any confidence on it. Um
Speaker 1: my most confident. I actually like Baltimore, man, and even
Speaker 1: though that based on my lines that that's not it.
Speaker 1: Based on my lines, the greatest line value is actually
Speaker 1: the Chicago and then Seattle. Um. But I just like
Speaker 1: how this game sets off for Baltimore. I like the
Speaker 1: matchup for Baltimore. I liked that they're playing at home. UM.
Speaker 1: I liked how under value the market sees this team
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, and I like how high the stock
Speaker 1: is on the charge is coming in. I mean, to me,
Speaker 1: it just sets up nicely. And the fact this lines
Speaker 1: going up the two and a half instead of moving
Speaker 1: the other way is a little telling. Sign again. I
Speaker 1: like Baltimore is my I think right now is my
Speaker 1: best bet. Again, I haven't bet it throwing it out there,
Speaker 1: but that's it's an unfair question though, I will admit
Speaker 1: because again for me and I'll just be honest teasing
Speaker 1: dogs and money line in Chicago. And if people think
Speaker 1: that that is square, I simply say to you, you're
Speaker 1: the square one. If you think that square um same
Speaker 1: question then closing out Greg Dieter at Profitable p R
Speaker 1: O P H I T A B L E was
Speaker 1: his handle in the score X beating the book contest. Greg,
Speaker 1: I hope it was a pleasant enough experience for you.
Speaker 1: I hope it was worth the joy of your entire season.
Speaker 1: I know that you were doing it for the competition,
Speaker 1: not just being on the show. But same question for you.
Speaker 1: The most confident A T s here in the least
Speaker 1: of the four games Cole Texans. I mean that is
Speaker 1: just a coin flip game. We'll see how it goes
Speaker 1: with the Andrew lock Riven Colts. I think they've kind
Speaker 1: of overperformed throughout the season here, which is it's good
Speaker 1: for them, but we'll see how this one game plays out.
Speaker 1: So that's the game I probably have the least confidence
Speaker 1: in picking and uh, most confidence I would go with
Speaker 1: the Bears. Again, the line is a little touchy here,
Speaker 1: but if we are talking about money line or a
Speaker 1: team that we have confidence in taking the win, the
Speaker 1: Bears at home, I think is a good play. And
Speaker 1: absolutely this was a pleasure. UM really excited to be
Speaker 1: on the Megapod. So thank you to Jail, Marco Ace,
Speaker 1: you know all those people involved over at the score
Speaker 1: Extra putting on a great competition. Uh, the contest is
Speaker 1: a lot of fun, bringing that market aspect to the
Speaker 1: NFL season as a whole dimension to my weeks. And
Speaker 1: hopefully we get some more activity next year if it's
Speaker 1: still going on, we get some more people from the
Speaker 1: the Megapod listeners to to sign up. I think I'm
Speaker 1: in about thirteenth place right now. Maybe we can get
Speaker 1: somebody in the top ten of the top five. Wow,
Speaker 1: your thirteenth place in the overall pool. Yeah yeah, so,
Speaker 1: I mean to be honest, I was a little disheartened
Speaker 1: earlier in the season seeing the standings, but then when
Speaker 1: you came and updated the Mega Pod standings, it was
Speaker 1: a little different. So that kind of gave me a
Speaker 1: second Wind. Yeah, I mean I think I'm in place
Speaker 1: right now, thirteenth place, and that goes through the playoffs
Speaker 1: through the super Bowl. First prize, five thousand dollars will
Speaker 1: be rooting for y'all. Keep an eye on that and
Speaker 1: I'll actually post those standings and see where you fall
Speaker 1: into the mix in there. Greg, Thank you appreciate it,
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for spending the time, man and congratulations again,
Speaker 1: thank you, definitely appreciate it. Here you guys are the best.
Speaker 1: Thank you, man Ace, thank you, thanks to Marco. Good
Speaker 1: luck to everybody with all your Wild Car Week bets,
Speaker 1: and thank you so much for listening.