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Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's stay two hundred

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Speaker 1: and five since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's

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Speaker 1: main story. It would be difficult by now to escape

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Speaker 1: the news that US President Donald Trump and his wife

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Speaker 1: Malania have tested positive for the coronavirus. What we still

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Speaker 1: don't know is what this means for the President's health

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Speaker 1: and for an election that's just weeks away. But first,

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Speaker 1: here's what else happened in virus news today. US job

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Speaker 1: gains slowed in September, and many Americans quit looking for work.

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Speaker 1: It's a sign that the economic recovery is slowing down.

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Speaker 1: The virus continues to rage, and neither a vaccine nor

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Speaker 1: a fresh round of government aid are expected soon. The

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Speaker 1: economy added six hundred and sixty one thousand new jobs.

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Speaker 1: Economists had forecast a gain of eight hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: nine thousand. The unemployment rate fell slightly to seven point

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Speaker 1: nine percent, but labor force participation also fell. US House

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Speaker 1: Speaker Nancy Pelosi said negotiations a new stimulus with the

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Speaker 1: White House will press ahead, and that Trump's COVID nineteen

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Speaker 1: diagnosis might change the tenor of the talks by emphasizing

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Speaker 1: the seriousness of the pandemic. Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Stephen

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Speaker 1: Manuchin exchanged proposals on a virus relief package Thursday night

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Speaker 1: and spoke by telephone on Friday, but it was unclear

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Speaker 1: whether that included discussion about the stimulus. The Speaker and

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Speaker 1: other Democrats have accused Senate Republicans and the White House

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Speaker 1: of not recognizing the stint of damage that the coronavirus

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Speaker 1: pandemic has caused and how big a threat remains. On

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Speaker 1: MSNBC Today, Pelosi said, quote, this kind of changes the dynamic. Finally,

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Speaker 1: astra Zenica's clinical trial for its COVID nineteen vaccine has

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Speaker 1: resumed in Japan, adding to earlier restarts around the world.

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Speaker 1: According to a statement from the drug maker, regulators have

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Speaker 1: deemed trials to be safe after a participant became ill

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Speaker 1: last month, triggering a voluntary pause. According to astra Zenica,

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Speaker 1: tests have restarted now in the UK, Brazil, South Africa,

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Speaker 1: and India. The Food and Drug Administration has yet to

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Speaker 1: make a decision regarding the resumption of a US based trial.

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Speaker 1: And now, for today's main story, President Donald Trump's diagnosis

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Speaker 1: of coronavirus has raised questions about everything from the Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court nomination process, to the possibility of future presidential debates,

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Speaker 1: and of course, the unprecedented possibility of a candidate being

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Speaker 1: removed from the ticket this late in an election year,

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Speaker 1: with so many questions and so few answers, I spoke

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Speaker 1: to Drew Armstrong, Senior editor for Healthcare and Healthcare reporter

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Speaker 1: Michelle fake Cortets to discuss what we know and still

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Speaker 1: don't know about what happens next. Michelle, I was wondering

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Speaker 1: if you might just very briefly sketch a timeline for

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Speaker 1: us in terms of how we discovered that President Trump

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Speaker 1: and the First Lady had tested positive for coronavirus. President

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Speaker 1: Trump learned early on Thursday that his close advisor Hope Hicks,

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Speaker 1: had tested positive for coronavirus. Now you'll remember that everyone

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Speaker 1: in the White House is tested every single day for

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Speaker 1: coronavirus to make sure that they are not going to

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Speaker 1: be exposing President Trump to the pathogen. In this particular case,

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Speaker 1: Hope Hicks tested negative early on Wednesday, and then Wednesday evening,

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Speaker 1: after a rally in Minnesota, she started feeling unwell and

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Speaker 1: she isolated herself on Air Force One. On Thursday morning,

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Speaker 1: the President learned that Hicks had tested positive, and he

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Speaker 1: himself then got tested rather than quarantining for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the day. However, he did continue with his activities

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Speaker 1: that included a rally and a fundraiser in New Jersey

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Speaker 1: on Thursday night. Later that evening, he found out that

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Speaker 1: he also had tested positive, along with his wife, First

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Speaker 1: Lady Milania Trump. And in terms of the gap between

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Speaker 1: when we know that he was perhaps first exposed to

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Speaker 1: the virus and his positive test result, he was still

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Speaker 1: quite active, and he was at several events and in

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Speaker 1: contact with numerous people. Do we know or have any

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Speaker 1: idea about how many people he may have exposed to

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Speaker 1: this virus. I think that's one of the things that

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Speaker 1: the White House is trying to figure out right now.

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Speaker 1: We've obviously today seen news headline after news headline about

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Speaker 1: other officials who have tested negative, and a handful that

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Speaker 1: have tested positive who've been in contact either with Trump

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Speaker 1: with other people affiliated with the administration. Senator Mike Lee

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Speaker 1: of Utah, I think it was just announced has tested positive.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure that we'll see more of these going forward,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think it's worth keeping in mind with

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Speaker 1: how the White House protects the President and kind of

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Speaker 1: safeguards UH staff in the White House, they rely very

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Speaker 1: heavily on testing as opposed to mask wearing. Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: and I think the problem with that is that tests

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Speaker 1: are very very good at picking up infections that have

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Speaker 1: already happened. Um, there don't themselves prevent infections like social

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Speaker 1: distancing and mask wearing and things like that, which can

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Speaker 1: be quite effective in doing so. So it means that

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Speaker 1: even though you catch infections early on and stop the

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Speaker 1: spread that they could cause from getting worse or spreading

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Speaker 1: to more and more people, it's really more of a

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Speaker 1: limiting effect than a fully preventative one. And just in

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Speaker 1: terms of the test results coming back, is it too

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Speaker 1: early to tell just how many people may have been exposed.

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Speaker 1: It's almost certainly too early to know for sure how

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Speaker 1: many people may actually develop this In terms of I

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Speaker 1: think one of the things I want to draw distinction

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Speaker 1: between you mentioned the word exposed. When public health workers

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Speaker 1: do contact tracing, which is exactly what's going to be

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Speaker 1: going on at the White House right now, exposures what

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Speaker 1: they're looking for. You know, you're just looking to see

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Speaker 1: were you around somebody who had the disease. Just being

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Speaker 1: exposed doesn't mean you're going to get infected. Testing is

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Speaker 1: what's going to pick up the actual infections themselves, but

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Speaker 1: it can take a little while for the testing to

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Speaker 1: actually find those infections. Remember, people get more and more

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Speaker 1: virus in their system as an infection grows, and that's

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Speaker 1: when they begin to become something attic, which is another

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Speaker 1: way of noticing affection to trigger a reason for people

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Speaker 1: to go and get a test. And so it may

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Speaker 1: be that someone who was just exposed and doesn't have

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Speaker 1: an infection that's really taken hold, they might not have

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Speaker 1: enough virus for test to be able to detect yet um.

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Speaker 1: And it may be that they tested they were exposed,

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Speaker 1: they test negative early on, and then later they do

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Speaker 1: test positive. So just because we're seeing these headlines about

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Speaker 1: people uh testing negative for the virus today doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: that they're necessarily going to test negative for it tomorrow

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Speaker 1: or in the coming case. And Michelle, I was wondering

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Speaker 1: if you might go into just what we can know

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Speaker 1: so far about what President Trump is experiencing with regard

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Speaker 1: to the virus. Obviously, disinfection was caught very very early,

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Speaker 1: so he's showing some mild symptoms. At this point, we

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Speaker 1: don't know what the definition of mild is, and I

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Speaker 1: have a feeling that that's going to be a conversation

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Speaker 1: we're all going to be having quite a lot in

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Speaker 1: the coming days. But we do know that some people

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Speaker 1: pro rests and other people don't. So for the next

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Speaker 1: four to five days, doctors are telling me it's going

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Speaker 1: to be really critical to keep an eye on the

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Speaker 1: president to determine whether or not he is showing signs

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Speaker 1: of fever, whether he is showing any issues with some

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Speaker 1: early signs of breathing difficulty, whether or not he is

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Speaker 1: struggling with fatigue and just feeling unwell, and it could progress,

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Speaker 1: but we won't know for a couple of days. And

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Speaker 1: let's look at some of the more general risk factors

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Speaker 1: for President Trump in terms of his age and overall health.

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Speaker 1: I mean, how are those potentially affecting his his experience

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Speaker 1: of the virus. President Trump is absolutely in a higher

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Speaker 1: risk group. He's not only older, he also is overweight,

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Speaker 1: and he has some other signs of potential heart issues,

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Speaker 1: particularly when it comes to high cholesterol levels. On the

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Speaker 1: other hand, he has been pretty healthy in general. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't have other issues like any active heart problems, any

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Speaker 1: blood clotting problems. As a general rule, he is a

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Speaker 1: healthy He's a healthy guy. So most people, even in

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Speaker 1: the high risk groups, do survive this virus. Of course,

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Speaker 1: President Trump is not the first world leader to have

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Speaker 1: tested positive for the virus. We think of, of course,

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Speaker 1: Brazilian President Billsonaro and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Is

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Speaker 1: there anything we can take from the other experiences of

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Speaker 1: coronavirus by world leaders? I think it's really hard to

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Speaker 1: figure this out. I mean, those are you know, it's

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Speaker 1: easy to lump those three in together because obviously all

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Speaker 1: three of them, UM, at some point or another work. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It was not that they weren't taking the virus particularly seriously. UM.

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Speaker 1: But the politics of each of those countries have meaningful differences,

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Speaker 1: and how they communicate about virus has meaningful differences. And

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Speaker 1: I think that it's a bit it's a bit difficult

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Speaker 1: to draw two to brush across what that tells us,

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Speaker 1: But it does tell us that if you don't take

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Speaker 1: this thing seriously, you do raise your risk of being infected. UM.

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Speaker 1: I think it is certainly telling that the three of

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Speaker 1: them did become UM infected UM, whereas other world leaders

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Speaker 1: have not. We are, of course, only a few weeks

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Speaker 1: out from the election. What does this positive test result

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Speaker 1: mean for Trump's campaign trail? Well, obviously, you know, we

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Speaker 1: are about a month away from the from election day.

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Speaker 1: Many people are voting now. I think it's also worth

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Speaker 1: noting that, you know, the pandemic and the virus has

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Speaker 1: been a huge issue in this campaign and particularly Trump's

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Speaker 1: response to it, and he has repeatedly played down the

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Speaker 1: severity of the virus UM. If you look at his

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Speaker 1: campaign rallies, people don't wear masks. There's certainly been some

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Speaker 1: controversy about the debate earlier this week where members of

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Speaker 1: the Trump campaign were at the debate we're not wearing masks,

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Speaker 1: against the advice of the Cleveland clinic that was running it.

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Speaker 1: And so there is a moment here that shows that, hey,

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Speaker 1: he can in fact be infected. Now. I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: one of the things that people may take away from

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Speaker 1: this is going to depend on how severe his case is.

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Speaker 1: And it's sort of grimm to think about that, but

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Speaker 1: you know, if he comes out of this with a

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Speaker 1: very mild case and comes out and then says, hey,

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Speaker 1: this was no big deal. Then some of his supporters

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Speaker 1: and other people are in the country may take a

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Speaker 1: very different lesson away from that. So I think this

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Speaker 1: is something that politically and from a public health standpoint,

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Speaker 1: really has yet to play out, and we're going to

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Speaker 1: find more about it in the coming days and beyond

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Speaker 1: the election. We're also in a full scale rush for

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Speaker 1: a vaccine. We're also waiting on another potential stimulus package.

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Speaker 1: How will President Trump's new COVID status potentially affect both

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Speaker 1: or either of these, Yes, certainly. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: Washington is all about meetings, FaceTime, getting things done. Obviously

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Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of business is being conducted just like

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Speaker 1: everyone else over resume and over phone right now. But

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Speaker 1: you know, I think it's this is certainly an event

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Speaker 1: that has disrupted just about everything going on um and

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Speaker 1: it's gonna it is gonna slow things down, is going

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Speaker 1: to cause people to rethink their political calculus about one

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Speaker 1: thing or another. I mean, you know, anything that takes

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Speaker 1: attention off of the task at hand is is a

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Speaker 1: bad thing for the momentum of getting those things done,

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Speaker 1: whether they be a Supreme Court domination, a stimulus package

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Speaker 1: or something else. And finally, is it possible that Trump

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Speaker 1: having COVID will significantly affect how Americans will vote in

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Speaker 1: the upcoming election. I think it's really hard to know

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Speaker 1: how this is going to affect the election. Um. I

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Speaker 1: think it is certainly going to weigh on how people

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Speaker 1: see Trump's response to the virus, which obviously is a huge, huge,

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Speaker 1: huge issue. And we're seeing the virus effect everything from

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Speaker 1: you mail in voting and absentee voting to fears about

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Speaker 1: in person voting. So I think a lot of those

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Speaker 1: effects have already played out. Um. And I think the

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Speaker 1: reality is that, you know, until we know how the

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Speaker 1: patient in chief's illness place out, we're not gonna necessarily

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Speaker 1: know the full political implications of this, but it's going

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Speaker 1: to be very interesting to watch over the coming weeks.

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Speaker 1: That was Drew Armstrong and Michelle fake Ortez and that's

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Speaker 1: it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak

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Speaker 1: from one and twenty beaus around the world, visit Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show,

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Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more

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Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is

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Speaker 1: produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gaspore, Magnus Hendrickson, and me

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Speaker 1: Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Drew Armstrong

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Speaker 1: and Michelle fake Cortez. Original music by Leo sidron Our.

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Speaker 1: Editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levie is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening, m HM